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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 06:15
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3 ICT: Good afternoon folks. So not too much to talk about for demo account for x.
4 So we're going to talk about the ripple versus the Dollar. I've been actively
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8 following this cryptocurrency. And notice I said, Follow, I did not trade it. So
9 everything I'm saying, Here's really just an opinion. It's not trade advice. I'm
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13 personally not interested in actually trading it. I'm studying it actively, as I
14 admitted on my Twitter account. I've been following ripple, Litecoin, and
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18 Bitcoin. So I know there's a lot of fever about these markets right now. And
19 anything moving draws a attention of everyone. And obviously, he's got my
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23 attention now. But I guess I'm not in this. And the things I'm going to say
24 here, not advice. Nothing I ever say his advice is always on a demo account
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28 setting for that reason. It's just really meant to stimulate your thinking. And
29 whatever happens is, you know, ultimately, your responsibility. So if you do
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33 anything acting on any of these insights that I'm sharing, from an opinion
34 standpoint, you know, I don't want to credit for it. And I certainly don't want
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38 here to grief about it if you've lost money trading these, these markets,
39 because I personally am not in them. And I just want to study what I look at, in
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43 technical analysis that I do in demo account setting for forex, those concepts I
44 share publicly, are they happening in the crypto markets. And as you can see
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48 here, some of the levels, I've shared them pretty influential in terms of this
49 crypto this morning, just want to go over here, pull this back up. I tweeted, an
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53 article here from daily FX. And the title was the rise and rise of alt coins.
54 Now, this actually is the same type of heading that I was reading with Bitcoin.
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58 Just before December. And you know what happened in December? You know, I was
59 talking rather candidly about how we wouldn't see 20,000 in 2017. And the very
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63 day that I said it, and why should slide we ended up making a high in Bitcoin.
64 Well, there's actually a movie or documentary, at least when I go through my
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68 cable provider, they're saying online, own domain rather, program have not sat
69 down and watched it. So if you know what I'm referring to when it says the rise
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73 and rise of Bitcoin? I'm not sure I'm assuming it's a documentary. But if it
74 isn't, you know, whatever it is, the title grabbed me this morning when I saw
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78 this headline, because this is same type of thing I saw right before Bitcoin
79 top. So whenever there's a headline campaign, or whenever there's a very
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83 emotionally charged or directionally focused headline campaign, it generally
84 works to be contrarian to what would be seen, like for instance, if you look at
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88 this, the rise and rise of alt coins, when when the average person reads that it
89 inspires and entices those individuals reading it, to assume that it's what a
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93 good buy or good sell, obviously, it's implying that it's bullish, without
94 saying so. So I mentioned that this morning. And I actually shared a couple
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98 things on Twitter by way of charts. And one of the objectives, you know, was,
99 obviously the three hour mark. And then, as random as it may seem here, the $3
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103 and 30 cent mark, and these were highlighted in put in Twitter beforehand. I did
104 not go through the trouble going through Twitter to actually find the tweets.
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108 And you can go find it yourself on January 4 2018. And you'll see that it's
109 basically updating tweets that posted several days ago, and noted that 170
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113 buyers would be looking to see that level, the recapitalizing or accumulating
114 new long positions. That's based on simply just an optimal trade entry, and
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118 finding a bullish order block. It's all used for that analysis in the market.
119 consolidated casino and optimal trade entry here, another ones in here. And we
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123 had one in here. And price went to the three hour mark came back down another
124 optimal trade entry here, taking us right up into $3 and 30.
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128 level.
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132 The high comes in at Surrey 31.7. So for a market that I don't really follow too
133 much, that's pretty accurate. And you can see the response since then. Now, I
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137 did tweet that if I were in this market, in a demo account setting again, I'm
138 not trading with live money. You guys see how I take partial profits? In my demo
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142 account for forex? I mentioned that I would be 80% out of the position when it
143 hits $3. And then when went up to here, and that would be obviously what a level
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147 to take profit as well. So if you only had 20%, on from here, how much you gonna
148 take off here? What would what would hit been been for you? Would you take off
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152 10%? Would you take all of it off, take 5% 15% on wait for these other levels I
153 shared because it had, if it had legs to continue 350 would have been objective,
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157 I've been looking forward and 370 and ultimately 380. That's what this love was
158 highlighting here. But I indicated on Twitter, take a look at ripple. And what
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162 we were doing was we were trading back up into an old area of distribution. So
163 if we look at this series of green candles here, this is actually one complete
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167 bearish order block. Okay, so this is a 30 minute chart, half of that range
168 would be approximately right here. So we were trading back about the midpoint of
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172 that, or what I teach is the mean threshold. Typically, they'll act as a kind of
173 a hidden resistance in this case, because it's a bearish order block and prices
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177 now since broke. Now he did take this low out now that's much more meaningful.
178 And it's also a ICT bearish breaker. So the down closed candle right before a
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182 new high with previous highs taken, then it breaks down. That becomes a bearish
183 pattern. You can see price trades on this upclose candle here, nails into it
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187 there and then trades lower as you would expect for an ice breaker. Where do I
188 think it's going to go? Well, we do have this high here in this high here. From
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192 a from a market structure standpoint, this may provide a near term support level
193 and it's probably what we're going to see $2.40 if it bounces there, it's going
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197 to have to get through this breaker for me to go back to looking for it to be
198 bullish again. It's just too many things. In the storylines, it's really built
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202 in a premium. So it's costly right now. And a lot of people are probably seeing
203 this. And you know, if it's going to be going higher, longer term, it's going to
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207 want to go lower first. Okay, because it's had a really good run. Let's see if I
208 can zoom out here, you can see that I gave several examples prior to all that.
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212 And yeah, read in here. ahead and objective to reach for that 120 level. And we
213 got that and sold off. And I was wrong about it going down to 65, it only went
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217 down to the low was 67. So I was off a little bit there. I thought they would
218 hit the 65 level again before going higher. So did tweet that just for
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222 disclosure sake, I don't want to sound like I'm only pulling out the sugar.
223 There's some vinegar there too. But you can see we've had some real nice nice
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227 distribution at the three hour and 30 cent mark on ripple. And I shared that
228 with you before the fact everything was worked out in Twitter, in chart form, so
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232 you can see the levels I was looking for. And it's all just picking out key
233 price levels, and then studying and seeing to get the reaction off of it. If you
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237 get the reaction then you go in with the technicals that I teach by way of a
238 demo account. And you practice and you practice and practice until you get good
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242 at reading price. This is not my asset class of choice. But I'm encouraged as a
243 technician that studies price action in other asset classes like stocks and
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247 commodities and forex. I look for things in price action to give me clues to
248 build an opinion and I love watching how price develops as a result of that. And
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252 I'm really fascinated to see the things that I teach start seeing in the price
253 action of these cryptocurrency states, it's really, you know, fascinating for me
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257 to see the very things that students that study my stuff, through forex and
258 applied it to crypto,
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262 I can see why they're excited. And it's really fascinating to see it be as
263 precise as you everyone else has told me it was. Me, I'm used to seeing it being
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267 precise in regards to demoing, on forex, and on futures. But, like I said, I've
268 never really actively looked at for crypto until just recently. So we've seen
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272 some really nice examples of that, or at least I have, I mean, most of you would
273 have been using it really longer than I have. But you've convinced me along with
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277 a family member. So it should we get down to $2.40, it would need again, to get
278 back above the breaker here. So I think any rally up from there, it's going to
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282 be met with some measure resistance could come back up here and and try to touch
283 this bearish order block here. And that would also be another resistance idea at
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287 that $3 mark. So it says make it simple, it needs to get back above three hours
288 before I would be a buyer again, that means I would lose any portion of price
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292 action above this high here on initial run. Now just wait for it to retrace for
293 an optimal trade entry. And I would start picking it up there and falling it on
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297 a pay per trade basis there. So I'm going very clear, this is not trading
298 advice. This is my personal observations, what I would expect now should $2.40
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302 break and get away. We have liquidity resting right below this low here. Why am
303 I picking this one because the most dynamic response off of it. So the average
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307 eye or retail mind is going to see that low as the most favorable support level.
308 Because it's found support there and repelled price away, we have a smaller one
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312 here, I'm not so excited about that one, because it's just below this old high.
313 So I think it's going to go that low, it's going to seek a little bit lower
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317 liquidity pool, and I think it's gonna be this one here. So we would have to
318 watch that $2 mark. So it could be a nice decent range to work within your
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322 practice if it goes below 240 $2. And then we could trade back up to around a $3
323 mark. And what we do beyond that would have to be seen for me to be bullish. But
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327 it certainly if we get down to $2, that could be a bounce idea for it to get up
328 to here. Or if this range stays intact, it could be a return back to this
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332 bearish order block here in the $2 and 80 cent mark. Okay, so several levels in
333 the watch. And it sounds rather ambiguous. It wasn't as clean as the levels I
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337 was giving you here as we marched up. But that's how trading is. So that's why
338 it's important to trade in a demo account and learn to see what your setup is.
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342 And you'll find it by seeing price action over and over again, seeing how it's
343 formed in the past. And then watching these levels and see if those setups form.
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347 If there's those form at the level that you've already predetermined that may
348 form a setup, then you have, at least in my opinion, more likely odds of your
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352 study in your demo, painting out to a favor welcome. So I'm not sure is there
353 even a demo account for you guys that know about crypto better than idea? Is
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357 there a demo account that you can trade crypto on? I'd like to be able to do
358 something with that as well. You guys, if you don't mind to tweet me something
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362 in regards to that, I'd appreciate it. And Bitcoin. I'm neutral on I mentioned
363 this before, initially, I was looking for
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367 price to respect, if I'm not mistaken this range in here. And we were in here
368 and I said that we would probably look for a lower low, we've consolidated and
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372 then we punch back above the 15 100 level. And I said that would be a callus
373 back here to be bullish. We had consolidated. I don't want to see that if it
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377 trades back up to 15. One that way, I don't like it. That's why I tweeted, I'm
378 neutral on Bitcoin. Okay, and we've seen it consolidate further in here. I'd
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382 like to see it really try to make a run on the liquidity below the marketplace.
383 I'm not terribly bullish in here, I think that like I said, if this currency, or
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387 cryptocurrency is going to go higher, they're gonna want to take the the long
388 holders out, okay, and there's liquidity below these equal lows here and below
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392 this oh well as well. So this could be very easily punched through made equal
393 highs, it could go up there and run that turtle soup sell, faded and go lower
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397 and then start working lower end of the range. And they go a run back below that
398 12,000 level. But I'm not. I'm not convinced that this is a good buy. It doesn't
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402 look like accumulation in here at all. Even though we can map out all kinds of
403 optimal trade entries here. I don't view it as bullish. I think there's an
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407 underlying tone to Bitcoin right now. That's going to be problematic for the
408 bulls. Now obviously, I got new skin in the race here so I can be a pain Because
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412 it causes me no harm if I'm wrong, but I'm being honest with you in regards to
413 how I use the tools and concepts that I work with. And I personally, me
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417 personally don't see something in here as a buy. If I was trading this with my
418 own demo account, or if I had real money in it, I wouldn't be doing anything
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422 with it at all. I wouldn't be doing anything at all, my attention would be
423 really focused back on ripple. And I would be actively following that one.
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427 Because I think there's levels I mentioned earlier are going to be significant
428 going forward. Okay. So I'm not sure if this was any value to you. Like I said,
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432 I'm learning this crypto stuff as I go. I spend a little bit of time with it
433 each day. And so far, it's been a really interesting study on my own. I like
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437 what I've found in price action, like the responsiveness that one would expect,
438 using the stuff I teach in demo for forex. So I'm going to continue plowing away
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442 at it and see if I can gain any more better understanding about it. And so
443 hopefully, I'll be more insightful for you guys to actually trade it. Again, I'm
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447 not trying to provide you advice, but I'm just going to agree. Okay. If you
448 asked if this is a an ICT concept and a chart, yeah, I cannot say yeah, I can
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452 see that. But I don't ever want you to take that as a investment advice or
453 enticement to do something with real money. Because Personally, I'm not invested
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457 in this stuff. I'm not really actively trading it, I don't have any money at
458 risk. And it would be unfair for me to try to give you that image, okay, or
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462 portray that, because I'm not really in it. But I am personally studying it as I
463 teach everyone to do with forex. In a demo, study, study study, I'm doing that
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467 same thing. Without the capacity of a demo account. I'm just paper trading and
468 studying it with just technicals written on a chart. And I'm saving the charts
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472 and I'm keeping these as reminders of the things that I look for in price
473 action, other asset classes. They materialize or they have been to this point
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477 materializing in crypto. So until tomorrow, it's non farm payroll Friday, I will
478 probably share my opinions about what I think the market will seek before the
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482 numbers come out tomorrow. Again, that's not a trade advice. It's not enticement
483 to take a trade. This is my opinion about what I think they'll run for four stop
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487 running. And apart from that, I would be on the sidelines. If you were reading
488 in the market for real trades, live money. I wouldn't be doing it now teach
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492 against that anyway. So not for professionals. That's what NFP stands for with
493 us until then, which Good luck and good trading.