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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 06:14
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
2 00:00:17,820 ~-~-> 00:00:27,450
3 ICT: Well, Happy New Year, folks, welcome to 2018. This is the first episode,
4 the internal trader on YouTube. So we've been looking at the cables is British
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6 2
7 00:00:27,450 ~-~-> 00:00:36,900
8 Pound USD. Now this pairs hindsight, I didn't do anything with this pair. But
9 this is what I do, I'm showing you how I do it. During the time of the year when
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12 00:00:36,900 ~-~-> 00:00:47,550
13 I'm not active, I still am very much interested in what price has been doing. So
14 I always look at it after the day closes, mark up the charts and see what
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16 4
17 00:00:47,610 ~-~-> 00:00:58,320
18 symmetry it all is in the marketplace. I use it for journaling, I use it for
19 staying connected to the price action, even though I'm not going to be actively
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21 5
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23 trading with normal leverage or in normal capacity until usually the third week
24 of January. So I let the first two weeks of January in trade without me. And
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26 6
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28 then around the third week of January uses Tuesday of that week, then on then
29 and only then I'll look to get engaged price action with with live trades with a
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33 little bit more meaningful leverage that took a very, very small position in the
34 euro dollar. I tweeted that earlier this afternoon. But you see what I'm
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36 8
37 00:01:26,430 ~-~-> 00:01:34,710
38 referring to in chart form. But I showed you the details with the time of entry
39 and exit and such you can see what it was really, really small position. But I
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41 9
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43 do that when I think there is something in the chart for me to engage with. But
44 because of the holiday rut that we're coming out of it, I don't trust the price
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47 00:01:47,430 ~-~-> 00:01:54,930
48 action, and there's going to be times when the market is going to be screaming
49 and those individuals that hear me say those types of things. Well, you know, I
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51 11
52 00:01:54,930 ~-~-> 00:02:04,230
53 CTS foolish because look what happened? Well, in my experience, I've been around
54 for a while. Even though being 45 year old and having a rather comfortable life.
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56 12
57 00:02:05,160 ~-~-> 00:02:13,500
58 I've seen a lot of things go wrong this time of year when I try to trade it. So
59 it's up to you whether you want to listen to a person that's been doing a whole
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61 13
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63 lot longer than you, okay, I'm just telling you, from my personal experience the
64 first couple weeks of January, it's generally not that predictable or precise.
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66 14
67 00:02:22,500 ~-~-> 00:02:29,400
68 Now there's going to be times when it is and you're going to be lulled into
69 thinking well you know that rules no longer applicable. Well, you can do that
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71 15
72 00:02:29,430 ~-~-> 00:02:38,370
73 under saying I'm not going to do that. Okay, so I'm trying to tell you how I
74 walk the walk and not just talk the talk. So I want to take your attention to
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76 16
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78 this old high here. This is a daily chart for the cable rich on USD. And as
79 price started running through this was yesterday. And everyone obviously saw
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83 price go above these highs. And I'm sure everyone was thinking naturally this
84 high was going to be the one that day one run out because of the beginning of
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87 00:02:58,560 ~-~-> 00:03:08,100
88 the year effect. Okay, so now we're it's it's the January start of a new year.
89 Okay, you can see here we're the time of this recording. It's little after 7pm
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91 19
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93 New York time, or I am locally, and I live in New York, but I'm on the east
94 coast of the US. So this is my timezone and it's the third of January. So we're
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96 20
97 00:03:17,430 ~-~-> 00:03:27,840
98 in a fresh year, fresh month. All the sentiment that is generally in play right
99 now tends to be challenged if not completely reversed. Or if it's going to
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101 21
102 00:03:27,840 ~-~-> 00:03:37,680
103 continue usually there's a deep retracement that takes place before it starts to
104 resume. Then we've seen some bullishness on cable, we've now traded to an old
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106 22
107 00:03:37,710 ~-~-> 00:03:50,460
108 high and through it, it did rather handsomely. But this was also one of the
109 reasons why I liked the euro dollar trade. Let's go down to a 15 minute chart.
110
111 23
112 00:03:50,610 ~-~-> 00:03:59,430
113 And we'll take a look at the cable on an intraday basis. Okay, so then we have a
114 15 minute timeframe on cable. And this is delineating today's price action. And
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116 24
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118 I want to draw your attention to several things here. Number one, this is a
119 rather sloppy, but still nonetheless, a market maker sell model, the
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121 25
122 00:04:08,460 ~-~-> 00:04:20,190
123 consolidation I see right here is what I'm going to mark out for you. Okay, so
124 it's a clear, obvious range. And yes, we have a drop down here, but I'm looking
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126 26
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128 at price action, creating consolidation in the run out, it returns back to the
129 range, re accumulation know the area of accumulation, it runs out the area of
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131 27
132 00:04:31,710 ~-~-> 00:04:42,000
133 accumulation and makes the high Smart Money reversal, low risk cell
134 redistribution and it trades back down to what right below the original
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136 28
137 00:04:42,000 ~-~-> 00:04:51,090
138 consolidation. And just for good measure does trade below this low back here the
139 low on this candle and just you know, this is an actual Live account. So it's
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141 29
142 00:04:51,090 ~-~-> 00:04:59,970
143 not like my forex Ltd demo account. So the data, you're gonna be comparing it,
144 it's going to be slightly skewed. So just be mindful that what I'm showing you
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146 30
147 00:05:00,000 ~-~-> 00:05:12,630
148 Today is a Live account only because it has had seamless price delivery, the
149 demo account for forex Ltd, which is what I usually use for my teaching. It's
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151 31
152 00:05:12,690 ~-~-> 00:05:13,770
153 missing some data
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155 32
156 00:05:14,040 ~-~-> 00:05:25,290
157 because of the holidays, and they tend to get crappy and really sloppy or with
158 their data couple times a year, but it is what it is. So the logon on this
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160 33
161 00:05:25,290 ~-~-> 00:05:41,370
162 candle comes in at 134 93.9. And the low on this is 93. Three, so it's
163 definitely went below or not by much, but certainly did exactly what the market
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165 34
166 00:05:41,370 ~-~-> 00:05:51,450
167 maker model for selling. Okay, in other words, they ramp up price price in a
168 premium, and then sell it off. Okay, that's what we've seen. And this is this
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170 35
171 00:05:51,810 ~-~-> 00:06:00,540
172 old daily high. Okay, so that old daily high that's at that level is here,
173 135 48 for this particular datafeed. And I want to draw in a couple things, I
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175 36
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177 want to draw your attention to certain elements. And this is how I mark up the
178 charts. And this is how I print them. And it's not put them in my journal. Now I
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180 37
181 00:06:08,580 ~-~-> 00:06:19,110
182 add other notes to them that are personal, which I think everyone should have
183 that measure of privacy in your charts. So I won't include everything in here.
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185 38
186 00:06:19,530 ~-~-> 00:06:26,550
187 But I'll give you enough to give you an example. So we'll be doing this on a day
188 by day basis. And I won't be doing this much jawboning about it, it'll just be
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190 39
191 00:06:26,550 ~-~-> 00:06:34,050
192 there. I'll talk about it. And it'll be a really short video. But since it's the
193 first video of the year, I got to give you something close to 30 minutes, right.
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195 40
196 00:06:35,580 ~-~-> 00:06:44,910
197 So we're going to take a look at the Fibonacci on a few things in here, I want
198 you to take a look at this range here. Okay, and I'm going to introduce a
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202 concept that you if you're new to me, there's going to be something neat.
203 Alright, so what we're looking at here is a measurement of the highest and
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207 lowest point of this consolidation. And what makes us a consolidation. It should
208 be obvious when you look at price, when price is creating a box, or a rectangle
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210 43
211 00:07:01,260 ~-~-> 00:07:12,510
212 in consolidation, and it leaves it it'll be obvious many times after the fact,
213 when you're new. Over time, you'll see these formations and they create
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215 44
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217 equilibrium. Okay, equilibrium is the midway point in here. So that's what I'm
218 measuring. So I'm measuring the lowest low and the highest high Now usually, you
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222 see me using the Fibonacci, placing it on the highest close or open, near swing
223 high, or near its lowest close or open on a swing low. That's for entry
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226 00:07:31,920 ~-~-> 00:07:40,470
227 purposes. Now when we're looking at equilibrium, we're looking at the entire or
228 total range, the total range is the highest high and the lowest low. So that
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230 47
231 00:07:40,470 ~-~-> 00:07:49,980
232 element right here for equilibrium, that's going to be important. So we're gonna
233 draw a line on it, so that we can remove the Fibonacci and work with it in other
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237 parts of the chart. So we have our level here, I'm just going to descend this up
238 a little bit. And give it a different color, something to draw different
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240 49
241 00:07:59,850 ~-~-> 00:08:08,850
242 contrast. So let's do that. So it's a little bit different. So we're drawing a
243 distinction between the old daily high here, and now we have an equilibrium
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245 50
246 00:08:08,880 ~-~-> 00:08:21,210
247 measurement, which will be used momentarily. So now we have two reference points
248 that are important. We have an old daily high, which we're thinking maybe is a
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250 51
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252 run above, they're building this premium in or pumping it before they dump it
253 above this daily high. We can also see the element of equal highs in here and
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255 52
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257 another consolidation, we would expect to see a run above that. Here's the
258 midnight candle. New York time says the New York opening price. Again, it's not
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260 53
261 00:08:43,110 ~-~-> 00:08:52,230
262 the New York session, it's the ICT, New York open price, okay, what we sit for a
263 trigger mechanism for buying and selling for the daily range for power three
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265 54
266 00:08:52,230 ~-~-> 00:09:01,680
267 concepts. So we have the opening price here, you extend that out across the day
268 until around one closer so you can see the Judas swing here, curse it rallies
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270 55
271 00:09:01,680 ~-~-> 00:09:16,290
272 up, takes out equal highs, breaks down comes right back with it retest. The
273 opening price sells off, consolidates right ahead of the equilibrium price point
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275 56
276 00:09:16,290 ~-~-> 00:09:27,090
277 of this range, okay? And then slices through it aggressively and does not waste
278 any time. Immediately guns for the liquidity resting below the consolidation are
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280 57
281 00:09:27,090 ~-~-> 00:09:34,980
282 here. And for good measure, it runs out the low here just by a little bit, but
283 any orders that are at that level or just below it spread would get you. Okay,
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285 58
286 00:09:34,980 ~-~-> 00:09:45,360
287 so we see the market going consolidation again, we'll probably see a trade a
288 little bit lower just for good measure. And I want to talk about a few elements
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290 59
291 00:09:45,360 ~-~-> 00:09:56,280
292 to how you can project this low. Not that this isn't enough because we can use
293 the market maker sell model for specific price levels. But I want to draw your
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295 60
296 00:09:56,280 ~-~-> 00:10:09,360
297 attention back to this consolidation here. And we can see that one third 552 and
298 a half, if we draw a fib, okay, from the hi appear.
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300 61
301 00:10:11,190 ~-~-> 00:10:20,370
302 Again now because we're working with equilibrium and ranges, you have to use the
303 highest and the lowest price points, these are not entry points, okay? I used
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305 62
306 00:10:20,460 ~-~-> 00:10:30,360
307 the highest open or closed and the lowest open or closed in a swing point for
308 measuring my actual price entry points. That is not the same thing here. And
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310 63
311 00:10:30,390 ~-~-> 00:10:36,840
312 please don't be confused or listen to people that don't really have any interest
313 in what I'm teaching, they're going to say, I'm changing the rules. Now I'm
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315 64
316 00:10:37,110 ~-~-> 00:10:45,480
317 teaching you something entirely different. And amplifying why it's important to
318 use the total range the highest high and the lowest level words, when we're
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320 65
321 00:10:45,480 ~-~-> 00:10:53,940
322 using equilibrium reference points, you have to use the wicks. Now if you're
323 looking for entry price points, you're only focusing on volume, where the most
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325 66
326 00:10:53,940 ~-~-> 00:11:02,910
327 buying and selling is where you're going to be measuring that with the bodies of
328 the candles, we're not doing that here completely different animal altogether.
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330 67
331 00:11:03,570 ~-~-> 00:11:14,580
332 So we're using the highest high, and we're going to drag it down. So what I'm
333 looking for is the equal equilibrium price point level on the Fed, which is this
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335 68
336 00:11:14,580 ~-~-> 00:11:22,290
337 one right here, keep your eye on that. I'm going to drag that down until it
338 lines up with this blue line. And I'll explain it in a minute.
339
340 69
341 00:11:31,289 ~-~-> 00:11:41,519
342 Okay, so now what we have done, we've measured the high and projected all the
343 way down until the equilibrium on the fib lays rate on the equilibrium of this
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345 70
346 00:11:41,519 ~-~-> 00:11:51,299
347 consolidation, so that we can get a measurement of market symmetry. When this is
348 done, you get a totally different appreciation for market precision that you
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350 71
351 00:11:51,299 ~-~-> 00:12:01,169
352 can't get from books. Okay. So what you're not getting is the actual low of the
353 day, it doesn't deviate by one, Pip. It doesn't deviate. Short of it, it goes
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355 72
356 00:12:01,169 ~-~-> 00:12:12,149
357 right to it. These are the elements I like to see come the third week of
358 January. Now, they will not always be this precise, they will not always give
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360 73
361 00:12:12,149 ~-~-> 00:12:21,989
362 you this measure of symmetry. around these couple days right after the holidays.
363 It just so happens that the things would be there today to warn these types of
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365 74
366 00:12:22,019 ~-~-> 00:12:32,159
367 deliveries. Now, there are elements in crypto, which is the interbank price
368 delivery algorithm, okay, which creates the high low of the day, all these
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370 75
371 00:12:32,159 ~-~-> 00:12:42,749
372 things are factored in mathematically. And they have an overlap with fib. There
373 is an application of Fibonacci that I use. And it's not the same thing you see
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375 76
376 00:12:42,749 ~-~-> 00:12:52,649
377 that's regurgitated among other retail educators and such. Look at a Fibonacci
378 book, study Fibonacci, and you find this in there. Okay, it won't be there. This
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380 77
381 00:12:52,649 ~-~-> 00:13:02,759
382 is what I do. This is what I teach. Because I have studied it, I've looked at
383 it. I've studied the algorithmic price movement that takes place in forex, and
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385 78
386 00:13:02,759 ~-~-> 00:13:13,829
387 other markets. And all these things are at salutely. Pre determined, okay. So
388 when you see hallmarks like this, it gets fascinating, you start reaching and
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390 79
391 00:13:13,859 ~-~-> 00:13:23,159
392 digging in deeper and deeper and deeper. And because I'm obsessively compulsive,
393 I have what would otherwise be viewed as a impediment by other people. It's
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395 80
396 00:13:23,159 ~-~-> 00:13:33,839
397 actually a asset for me, because I won't let go of something. When I have it.
398 And I smell blood, I'm going after it. So these elements I look for in price
399
400 81
401 00:13:33,839 ~-~-> 00:13:42,779
402 action, I look for points of equilibrium, I look for the models to be there at
403 right now we've outlined enough to justify why this market should have acted the
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405 82
406 00:13:42,779 ~-~-> 00:13:53,519
407 way it did today. Now, I did not trade this particular pair. I was studying this
408 one. But I wanted to participate in the euro dollar. So let's take a look over
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410 83
411 00:13:53,519 ~-~-> 00:14:06,929
412 at the euro dollar now. And we'll mark this one up as well. All right, so the
413 euro dollar, same premise we saw yesterday, a big run up in price. Okay, we're
414
415 84
416 00:14:06,929 ~-~-> 00:14:17,489
417 well above this old high here. And I knew in my gut that everyone would be
418 expecting this high to be taken out. What in this run here, we have the high at
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420 85
421 00:14:17,549 ~-~-> 00:14:30,599
422 120 80.3. And then we have the high here at 120 91. One, okay, so we fell short
423 of it. Everyone else would have been expecting this market high to be taken out,
424
425 86
426 00:14:31,169 ~-~-> 00:14:46,379
427 not me. So what I was looking for. And this was what gave me the the impulse to
428 want to be a seller. What I'm measuring here now because we're looking at entry
429
430 87
431 00:14:46,379 ~-~-> 00:14:57,389
432 points. Now we have to look at this element of the open in the high. In the low
433 arts. What we're looking for is the lowest open or close and the highest open or
434
435 88
436 00:14:57,389 ~-~-> 00:15:07,289
437 close relative to the swings. What I'm measuring is The most volume the actual
438 buying and selling that's occurred by looking at the bodies not the wicks Okay.
439
440 89
441 00:15:08,789 ~-~-> 00:15:17,669
442 Then what I do is I duplicate that range and I add it to the lowest open or
443 close again over here during this retracement and that gives me this high up
444
445 90
446 00:15:17,669 ~-~-> 00:15:28,979
447 here and we saw that high be pierced yesterday so I know we are really really
448 overbought and I didn't need to do any overbought indicator and RSI no Williams
449
450 91
451 00:15:28,979 ~-~-> 00:15:40,079
452 percent are no stochastics MACD, none of those things are necessary. We are
453 absolutely overbought, okay, we're overbought in relative terms to this high. In
454
455 92
456 00:15:40,079 ~-~-> 00:15:48,089
457 this low we are right at the top of the range. So I don't need an indicator to
458 tell me that we are overbought. So if we are overbought from a purely technical
459
460 93
461 00:15:48,089 ~-~-> 00:15:59,639
462 standpoint, not an indicator standpoint, a technical standpoint, and there is an
463 element of wanting to see that cable trade lower as well, I have two things
464
465 94
466 00:15:59,639 ~-~-> 00:16:10,979
467 going for me both cable wanting to suggest lower prices. Now euro dollar isn't
468 an area where it should look to sell off, I got a pretty good deal in terms of
469
470 95
471 00:16:11,009 ~-~-> 00:16:18,449
472 odds. So now what we're gonna do is we're gonna drop down into a 15 minute time
473 frame for the euro dollar, and do some analysis on that as well.
474
475 96
476 00:16:18,570 ~-~-> 00:16:26,670
477 Okay, so we're looking at the euro dollar to the 15 minute time frame. And I'm
478 gonna give you an idea what I acted on last night. And I did not want to stay up
479
480 97
481 00:16:26,670 ~-~-> 00:16:35,880
482 overnight, I didn't want to participate in London, I didn't want to do any of
483 those procedures that would otherwise lead well to entries, what I did was
484
485 98
486 00:16:35,910 ~-~-> 00:16:47,490
487 measured the highest body and the lowest body reference point relative to the
488 open or close. And that gives me an optimal trade entry rate in here. Okay, and
489
490 99
491 00:16:47,640 ~-~-> 00:16:57,750
492 admittedly, I was acting on this swing high right here. So we had a high, a
493 lower high and a lower high to the right of it. Okay, and then, on this candle
494
495 100
496 00:16:57,750 ~-~-> 00:17:07,560
497 right here was my entry. Okay, so as price was going up, because I'm having to
498 sell short when prices moving higher. That is a filter for me, I have to be a
499
500 101
501 00:17:07,560 ~-~-> 00:17:17,310
502 seller only when prices moving up. And I was using it as the middle of this
503 order block words. It was an upclose candle, I was anticipating a break down. It
504
505 102
506 00:17:17,310 ~-~-> 00:17:27,120
507 just so happens that it traded up higher. my stop loss was 35 pips. Okay, anyone
508 that understands my power three concept, I was using an early entry technique
509
510 103
511 00:17:27,330 ~-~-> 00:17:39,510
512 going around the Asian open and with the expectation that we have already made
513 the high the day before. So it should not trade through that. If I'm allowing
514
515 104
516 00:17:39,510 ~-~-> 00:17:51,270
517 myself to have a 35 PIP stop loss. I'm not concerned about anything. You can
518 just want to take some pips out I will look to mitigate the risk in that stop
519
520 105
521 00:17:51,270 ~-~-> 00:18:03,420
522 loss around the New York open. So we had price trade up, knock out this swing,
523 low swing high here. Come back into a bearish order block trades lower going
524
525 106
526 00:18:03,450 ~-~-> 00:18:14,250
527 Asian range comes back up here is the opening at midnight as the New York
528 opening price. We have our Judas swing here rallies back up to what 62%
529
530 107
531 00:18:14,250 ~-~-> 00:18:28,320
532 retracement level. Okay. Now had I been up, I would have sold short right here.
533 And then price breaks lower and ultimately reaches down into target to now let's
534
535 108
536 00:18:28,320 ~-~-> 00:18:40,950
537 draw a line out. You can see how that overlaps rather handsomely. Right there.
538 It's it, boom. Okay. So late in the day New York does in fact, hit that level.
539
540 109
541 00:18:41,400 ~-~-> 00:18:52,470
542 If you are not paying attention to this over here, which is something that you
543 shouldn't be doing if you're following my work. But you may have seen just this
544
545 110
546 00:18:52,470 ~-~-> 00:19:04,710
547 one. Again, because we're looking for entries, we're using the body's open highs
548 or closes the highest one and or the lowest open or close in the swing low.
549
550 111
551 00:19:05,640 ~-~-> 00:19:16,080
552 Again, beautiful symmetry 79% retracement level kicks off the swing trades
553 lower. What I was looking for was a move below this low. Okay, so I was looking
554
555 112
556 00:19:16,080 ~-~-> 00:19:27,810
557 for movement below here. And we know what's going to be resting below that cell
558 stops in the form of a 1020 and 30 PIP swing or sweep below that. And price does
559
560 113
561 00:19:27,810 ~-~-> 00:19:47,220
562 in fact go from here we have a low of 2025 and a half and the low comes in at
563 24. So basically about 20 pips, a swing below that let the run out stops. Now I
564
565 114
566 00:19:47,220 ~-~-> 00:19:54,120
567 don't personally think that it's done. I think we'll probably leave this
568 consolidation and go a little bit lower. Probably clean out the low we like
569
570 115
571 00:19:54,120 ~-~-> 00:20:03,360
572 below here. I don't know if we're going to go any lower than that yet. But this
573 is certainly enough. For me to do an exercise on, and I took and put a very,
574
575 116
576 00:20:03,360 ~-~-> 00:20:14,670
577 very small amount of leverage on it, it was a Live account trade, I tweeted The,
578 the results of it, something like $54 and some change. But just to show that 30
579
580 117
581 00:20:14,670 ~-~-> 00:20:24,360
582 some pips or so, which is what I teach is an objective. It's still possible. But
583 just because it's possible, I don't teach you or encourage you to go in there
584
585 118
586 00:20:24,360 ~-~-> 00:20:33,450
587 and do this. During this time of the year. I do it as a mode of practice. And I
588 still engage sometimes with a demo account in this time of the year. But I do
589
590 119
591 00:20:33,450 ~-~-> 00:20:44,880
592 not actively go in with my normal leverage, or with a Live account until around
593 the third week of January. Okay. So hopefully this is, you know, gave me some
594
595 120
596 00:20:45,300 ~-~-> 00:20:54,840
597 more clarity about what we can do with Fibonacci and elements about Fibonacci in
598 equilibrium, and still finding precision. It just so happens that these two
599
600 121
601 00:20:54,840 ~-~-> 00:21:05,130
602 examples are pretty precise, but I don't like to anticipate or expect that. This
603 immediately after the holidays. Generally, the markets can be rather fickle, and
604
605 122
606 00:21:05,130 ~-~-> 00:21:15,120
607 have really no symmetry whatsoever. But as you see here, it's relatively
608 symmetrical. Even though it's sloppy in here, a lot of reaching low or lower, it
609
610 123
611 00:21:15,120 ~-~-> 00:21:17,430
612 ultimately goes to where we would reasonably expect it to go to.
613
614 124
615 00:21:17,850 ~-~-> 00:21:22,500
616 Okay, so until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.