Skip to Content

65-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 7 - Short Term Trading Using Monthly & Weekly Ranges

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-28 11:01
1 00:00:10,860 --> 00:00:19,950 ICT: Welcome to march 2017 content for the ICT mentorship. This month, we're teaching short term trading. This is lesson one, combining higher timeframe
2 00:00:19,950 --> 00:00:33,660 monthly and weekly ranges. Okay, folks, short term trading. This is my cup of tea, if you will my go to discipline trading style. In this month, we're gonna
3 00:00:33,660 --> 00:00:43,710 be teaching in great detail my one shot one kill approach to trading, not just the forex market, but all the other asset classes will be touched on in scope as
4 00:00:43,710 --> 00:00:54,270 we get to those later discussions. In the middle of the summer, we will be teaching, bond trading, index trading, stock trading and commodity trading. And
5 00:00:54,270 --> 00:01:05,760 I'll touch on this specific trading model in higher detail when I go into those respective discussions. And to say no, it's the month of June. We go through
6 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:18,900 that, that Gambit if you will of those four different asset classes. Alright, so what is short term trading, it's the practice of trading a duration of one week
7 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:34,320 or a few days. We use both the monthly and weekly charts to frame the setups. We trade in the direction of the present or next week's probable range. It's
8 00:01:34,320 --> 00:01:43,530 essential that you understand that the weekly range is going to be the backbone to your success in short term trading. And I'm going to go through a lot of
9 00:01:43,980 --> 00:01:58,500 teaching in concepts as it relates to producing consistent results when you're looking for forecasting the next week or current week's range. The short term
10 00:01:58,500 --> 00:02:12,150 model can be both trend or range bound trading. trades that are clear to see forming or the goal. Again, specifically with this trading model. Try your best
11 00:02:12,180 --> 00:02:22,710 to keep from forcing yourself to take a trade if it's not obvious, but simply just not clear enough on on your charts. To simply sit on your hands and wait,
12 00:02:23,010 --> 00:02:31,650 these types of setups form every single week, there's absolutely no reason for you to rush. If you do believe me, you will have psychological tug of war going
13 00:02:31,650 --> 00:02:41,130 on, you're gonna have emotional issues. And the bottom line is you're ultimately probably going to lose some money. short term trading, in my opinion, is the
14 00:02:41,130 --> 00:02:52,620 highest probability discipline. It offers frequent setups, and with consistency, it provides a plethora of trades. Now, before we get into this discussion about
15 00:02:52,620 --> 00:03:02,700 short term trading, let me preface it by saying it's important to you go through your notes from the January long term trading model. And from February with the
16 00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:14,460 swing trading model notes, because those notes will complement this specific whole entire month, it'll be very easy for me to load you down with a rehash of
17 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:22,530 everything that was discussed in January and February. But what I want to do as I want to keep things moving along, number one, I want the lessons to be fresh.
18 00:03:22,890 --> 00:03:24,330 And I also want you to be
19 00:03:25,860 --> 00:03:32,790 forced, if you will to go back through your notes. It's simply me giving you the PDF file is not enough, you need to be referring to them every single month, you
20 00:03:32,790 --> 00:03:39,750 get something new, when you finish that new month, go back from the previous months and go through all those lessons again. And yes, it takes a lot of time.
21 00:03:39,900 --> 00:03:47,670 That's why we're doing a 12 month mentorship, it takes a great deal of time to go through this information to digest it to retain it. And then to be able to
22 00:03:47,670 --> 00:03:53,880 use it. It's simply not enough to give me this and then I'll know what to do. It's not it doesn't work like that. And obviously some of you already realize
23 00:03:53,880 --> 00:04:02,820 that and it's requiring you a great deal more work. But the ones that are doing it, guess what you already see the fruits of that. So while many of the folks on
24 00:04:02,850 --> 00:04:10,980 the internet think they understand how I do one shot one kill. Believe me, there's a whole lot of things that I did not reveal in the first four lessons of
25 00:04:10,980 --> 00:04:20,910 this month will look somewhat like you have already seen it already. But there's subtle nuances especially with one specific component that I'm going to release
26 00:04:20,940 --> 00:04:27,300 at the very last slide in this presentation, I want you to be really focused on because it's really is in my opinion, one of the telltale signs that you got a
27 00:04:27,300 --> 00:04:34,680 tiger by the tail. In other words, you have a big moves still, and I'll get to that when we get to the last slide in this presentation. But I want you to know
28 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:46,890 that when we go through short term trading, this is my favorite form of trading. If I can't find a setup for one shot, one kill. The next thing I'm doing is day
29 00:04:46,890 --> 00:04:57,360 trading and guess what we teach that next month, but this month and next this is where I excel as a trader because of my personal, unique makeup as a trader and
30 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:07,890 as a person my psychology about things in nature is very short term, I can change my mind very quick, I can make a decision rather quickly. So that means
31 00:05:07,890 --> 00:05:19,320 that I can do very well in this specific discipline of trading and with intraday day trading. So while this may not be your particular style of trading, trust
32 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:28,710 me, I'm going to teach you things in this month and next month that will help you really, really excel as a long term trader or a swing trader, everything
33 00:05:28,710 --> 00:05:35,820 blends together. That's why we have to do these things from a higher timeframe down and we go back to the higher timeframe and fill in gaps that were left
34 00:05:35,820 --> 00:05:42,240 there intentionally. Some of you have scratched your head saying, Well wait a minute, I feel like there's some things missing from the swing trading model,
35 00:05:42,540 --> 00:05:51,240 the things that are missing will be helped by filling in with the short term because everything is modular, everything is complimentary as we go through
36 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:58,140 deeper study on this mentorship. So as we get down to the smaller timeframes, everything fills in and then you'll go back in the higher timeframes and say,
37 00:05:58,140 --> 00:06:02,940 Okay, now I know what I'm doing. I know what I'm looking for and everything fit together like a dovetail perfectly
38 00:06:05,940 --> 00:06:15,870 okay, as a reminder, every discipline, we will always be referring to the PD array matrix. And I want to not just go over everything that you've seen here so
39 00:06:15,870 --> 00:06:25,680 far, and I'm not trying to you belabor it. But it's important to understand that as a short term trader, especially for one shot one kill which is the like the
40 00:06:25,710 --> 00:06:35,520 flagship of this month content that's what I'm that's my Hallmark as a trader, I mean that that's what makes ICT Woody is you know, I can trade the weekly range
41 00:06:35,730 --> 00:06:43,020 and get pretty close to what the highs and lows for the week. And you've already seen many examples we call the intraday highs and lows before the fact within
42 00:06:43,380 --> 00:06:51,360 one or two pips and sometimes rate on the PIP. Those same components are applicable to the weekly range, which if you really stop and think about that,
43 00:06:51,930 --> 00:07:02,310 think about the Sunday open to Friday's close how many pips is offered over that time period, a lot, tons. So if you can really focus in on what we're teaching
44 00:07:02,310 --> 00:07:10,800 this month, even if it's not going to be your discipline of choice, or style of trading, it will give you a greater insight on how you can reduce your risk
45 00:07:10,950 --> 00:07:21,360 trading as a swing trader and or a long term trader. But as it relates to pdra Matrix events is again the backbone to what we look for, and how we frame our
46 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:29,220 trades. Okay, so it ends up in every one of our teachings as we go forward. And each new discipline, this slide will always be there, because I want to
47 00:07:29,220 --> 00:07:37,920 ingrained in your brain, okay, because this is what I do. From an institutional mindset, I look for how the institutions will move from a premium to a discount
48 00:07:37,950 --> 00:07:46,470 array, or from a discount array to a premium array, you have to understand that and just an example. This is take a look at one real quick it's saying we looked
49 00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:55,260 at the market and it just recently filled in a fair value gap. Okay, and we think the markets bearish? Well, we go through this process of looking for
50 00:07:55,650 --> 00:08:05,610 potential future discount PD arrays. And we look and we can't see anything in terms of a bullish mitigation block, we don't see any bullish breakers, there's
51 00:08:05,610 --> 00:08:16,620 no liquidity void, but there is no fair value gap either. All of a sudden, it reduces down to a bullish order block. So if we're looking at a monthly hard
52 00:08:16,620 --> 00:08:30,360 timeframe, premium array, we're looking for a opposing weekly discount array. So in this case, we were looking for the movement from a fair value, get the head
53 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:40,740 filled in at a premium level, we're dropping down in looking for a weekly discount array. And if our analysis leads us to only a bullish order block below
54 00:08:40,740 --> 00:08:49,410 us in the weekly format, or timeframe, that's the range that we're gonna be looking for. That's your potential range. That's how much you can frame your
55 00:08:49,410 --> 00:09:00,300 risk reward model. That's the range you're trading that's not to be broken up and looked at as Okay, well, if this range is 300 pips, I'm just gonna take 20
56 00:09:00,300 --> 00:09:08,130 pips and be done with it. No, you're gonna look to frame your trades. As you scale out, you're holding for these longer term objectives. Throughout the week,
57 00:09:08,220 --> 00:09:14,940 you're gonna ignore and take some profits along the way. But you're holding out ultimately what that last portion of your trade to get down to that bullish
58 00:09:14,940 --> 00:09:24,240 order block. This is just one example. It can be any combination of how a premium moved to a discount array or a discount array moved up to a premium in
59 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:34,530 terms of reaching for how the market may reach in terms of moving higher or lower. And I'll say this in simple terms. All we're doing is looking for a
60 00:09:34,530 --> 00:09:46,530 monthly PD array, whether it's discount or premium, based on our next logical price move, is it gone most likely higher or lower from where we are right now?
61 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:56,370 And we move from a monthly PDE array. Now if it's bullish, obviously we're gonna be focusing on a monthly discount array. If it's bearish, we're looking for a
62 00:09:56,370 --> 00:10:07,500 premium monthly array from that monthly array. If you're looking to look for an opposing weekly array, so for starting from a premium and a monthly basis,
63 00:10:07,770 --> 00:10:17,130 you're gonna be looking for weekly discount, that's your target, you're looking for that range that close in, or the market to be drawn to that level. Now, if
64 00:10:17,130 --> 00:10:23,130 you're not really paying attention, if I didn't hit you hard, believe me, when you go through your all your charts, go back and look at every major move.
65 00:10:23,340 --> 00:10:31,860 That's what's been going on. That's what makes my ability to call the markets from one level to the next and be pretty solid in terms of why I think the
66 00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:39,390 markets gonna go one direction over the other. When I'm not confident about that. It's because I don't I don't know which PD array is going to be used next.
67 00:10:39,390 --> 00:10:47,790 So I'm waiting for more information or the PD arrays have been expired, they've already been traded to so you have to look for something new. And that means you
68 00:10:47,790 --> 00:10:55,710 have to wait. But guess what that does, it gives you context, and also gives you patience. It gives you the ability to wait, now you know what you're waiting for
69 00:10:55,710 --> 00:11:04,020 it because right now it can't do anything. So when we go through this process of eliminating or what's available in terms of active PD arrays,
70 00:11:04,830 --> 00:11:13,800 we start from a monthly what is the monthly PD array that we're most actively traded from? Is it coming off of a bearish order block? Okay, great. So what's
71 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:20,460 the weekly discount, right, it's gonna be reaching for there may not be a mitigation block, there may not be a bullish breaker, there may not be avoider
72 00:11:20,460 --> 00:11:30,120 gap, there may not even be a bullish order block that you could find around confidence, it may be a series of all down candles. So what does that mean? You
73 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:43,860 look for rejection block, or an old low and high. Another An example would be if we were looking for a discount monthly array up into a weekly premium array, we
74 00:11:43,860 --> 00:11:51,390 can be looking for the market moving from a bullish breaker for instance. And we could potentially look for the market to possibly run to an old high or an old
75 00:11:51,390 --> 00:12:01,830 low. Again, that would be your potential range. This is the maximum you're leaving your portion of your trade on to reach for, it may not get to these
76 00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:10,380 objectives. But if you leave a little piece on many times, you're gonna find that if you do this, you can actually make more than the trade if you had on the
77 00:12:10,380 --> 00:12:18,720 full position and left it to your first objective and just simply took it all out there. That small little portion if you leave it on, and you hold it for
78 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:28,860 your maximum potential, that little portion many times will be what you would be making entirely if you just took first profit and a smaller, lesser objective.
79 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:46,890 Okay, higher timeframe sequence. We've seen this slide before, but now we're making one more addition. And we're making some additional notes as well. When
80 00:12:46,890 --> 00:12:54,000 we're looking for shorting opportunities, we're moving from a monthly chart sell program, it means we're looking for the market to move away from a premium
81 00:12:54,060 --> 00:13:02,880 array. And we're moving down into the lower timeframe, which would be the weekly chart and we're looking for it to become a sell program as well. So we're going
82 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:12,150 to looking for the market to move away from its premium arrays down into a lower timeframe daily or watching for price to move away from its individual premium
83 00:13:12,150 --> 00:13:21,090 arrays down into a four hour chart, looking for its sell program as well moving away from its premium arrays down into a one hour chart where we're again
84 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:33,960 looking for the market to move away from their premium arrays. So if we look at the slide here to the right, we have the monthly, the weekly, the daily, the
85 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:41,520 four hour and the one hour, and we're focusing on the monthly chart is we're looking for a premium array to trade off of North that's going to be our point
86 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:51,960 of origin. From the monthly weekly dealing for our these timeframes, you're scanning, searching and trying to determine all of the PD arrays not just
87 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:59,850 premium, and not just discount, you're looking for all of them from each timeframe, because all of them will give us potentially new setups short term
88 00:13:59,850 --> 00:14:11,580 trading or one shot kill setups. And also, if we're looking for a move, in this case, a selling opportunity and we're framing off of a monthly PD array from a
89 00:14:11,580 --> 00:14:19,350 premium level. That means we're in a basically an overbought condition. And we're going to be watching expecting the price to move lower to trade down to a
90 00:14:19,350 --> 00:14:29,220 weekly discount. So if we're going to look at the monthly the weekly daily for our own both premium and discount basis, as we've already talked about in
91 00:14:29,220 --> 00:14:39,540 previous disciplines and teachings in December and January when we do this, if we're bearish if we're looking for the monthly premium arrays to influence price
92 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:51,930 to go lower. Why is it important to look at the monthly weekly daily and for our discount arrays? Because we're looking for these arrays and have this count form
93 00:14:52,140 --> 00:15:05,160 to break. We want to see them break and we're gonna see them continuously keep breaking until we get down to our weekly discount array. So if we're framing a
94 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:16,020 monthly premium PD array, we're expecting lower prices from a monthly level. And we're trying to get down into a weekly discount. Now it could be any one of the
95 00:15:16,020 --> 00:15:26,220 discount arrays, whichever one appears on the chart or the market that you're trading, not every pair or market has every single discount array, there's only
96 00:15:26,220 --> 00:15:36,360 a few that can exist very rarely have you ever seen more than three. So if you focus on what you're looking for in terms of monthly downto, daily, it gives you
97 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:45,090 a very clear cut thing to look for. There's not a plethora of things to choose from, or while there's so many things you could be Michael, which level is it?
98 00:15:45,090 --> 00:15:54,270 No, it's very obvious. We're framing the market contextually and conceptually. So it gives us a way to break down the marketplace and define where that market
99 00:15:54,300 --> 00:16:06,510 may most and obviously, likely reached to. So we're scouting for opposing PD arrays from the monthly down into a weekly discount. So again, monthly premium
100 00:16:06,510 --> 00:16:21,240 level. And we're trying to look for an opposing weekly PD array in the form of a discount. From that monthly premium array, we dropped down into a weekly, daily
101 00:16:21,270 --> 00:16:31,830 and four hour at every premium array for each one of those timeframes. And we're scanning for all of the premium arrays where we can take short term trades from
102 00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:41,010 as a short, every one of those at the weekly daily and four hour, if we find a level like that, we refine it all the way to the one hour chart, or one hour
103 00:16:41,010 --> 00:16:50,850 chart is our executable timeframe, for one shot, one kills, or short term trading. Once you have that executed, what we're doing is we're aiming for that
104 00:16:50,850 --> 00:17:01,020 weekly discount pdra. And there's your cycle. That's your process. That's your whole outline, if you will, what we do with the information we learned from
105 00:17:01,020 --> 00:17:09,870 January and February. And what we're learning so far, is that we're taking all this conceptually, and breaking it down into a user friendly format. We want a
106 00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:18,900 monthly premium array, and we start there, we're looking for a opposing weekly discount.
107 00:17:19,949 --> 00:17:29,609 Whatever that range is, it may be hundreds of pips, or it can be 1000. pips, I don't know it's going to be unique to each market environment. But we may have
108 00:17:29,609 --> 00:17:36,959 missed the real opportunity to trade off of that monthly premium, maybe you sat down the insurance Oh, look at this, it's coming off of a monthly bearish order
109 00:17:36,959 --> 00:17:43,019 block. So it's already moved away from it, you can't really use that to trade off of you just know that it's moving lower. So what do you do next, you drop
110 00:17:43,019 --> 00:17:54,449 down to a weekly what's the weekly premium arrays, there may be one it trades up to later on, or a daily chart, it may trade up into a daily premium array, or a
111 00:17:54,449 --> 00:18:06,179 four hour one of those four timeframes is going to give you a setup. Based on the fact that the monthly premium is overbought, we most likely are going to
112 00:18:06,179 --> 00:18:15,449 trade lower, and we're going to be looking for a lesser timeframe discount array, what's less than than a monthly, a weekly, we execute regardless if it's
113 00:18:15,449 --> 00:18:28,649 on a weekly daily or for our premium level, from a one hour chart, we get down to the discount on a weekly, that's our objective. Throughout the time from that
114 00:18:29,189 --> 00:18:38,639 execution, if it's a weekly, or it's a monthly level, we could potentially see multiple short term trades form. If it's from a four hour basis, you won't see
115 00:18:38,639 --> 00:18:48,809 that many chart setups form but nonetheless, there's still gonna be high probability. Okay, for buying opportunities, the same thing as this repeated
116 00:18:48,929 --> 00:18:58,019 this an opposite. We're gonna be looking from a monthly chart by program so we're gonna be looking at a monthly discount array. And we're gonna be looking
117 00:18:58,019 --> 00:19:04,379 for it to go into a bi program and on which we're expecting higher prices, weekly chart, we dropped down into it and we start looking for all of the
118 00:19:04,379 --> 00:19:15,299 discount PD arrays as well. And we look for the daily chart to also move away from its discount arrays, and then dropping down to a lower four hour and then
119 00:19:15,329 --> 00:19:23,729 ultimately down to a one hour chart looking at all of the discount PD arrays to offer support and price. But ultimately, we're framing it off of whatever the
120 00:19:23,729 --> 00:19:32,849 monthly chart discount array is. That's the beginning basis point. So we're starting from a monthly level, we're finding a discount, if for oversold or for
121 00:19:32,849 --> 00:19:44,969 any really deep discount market. And once it's traded for a long time, lower and we found some old institutional price models for bullish institutional order
122 00:19:44,969 --> 00:19:52,559 flow, for instance, a bullish order block or an old higher or low, whatever has caused the market to trade higher in the past. All those are potential
123 00:19:52,559 --> 00:20:06,569 scenarios. We're looking for a lower timeframe, opposing pdra In this case, we're looking for a weekly premium array. We're scouting opposing PD arrays, but
124 00:20:06,569 --> 00:20:15,749 we're starting from that monthly basis for a discount. So the lesser timeframe from a monthly is a weekly and the opposing from a discount is premium. So we're
125 00:20:15,749 --> 00:20:27,029 looking for an over sold condition on a monthly to a higher timeframe premium array that would be seen on a weekly chart. So that would give us a relatively
126 00:20:27,509 --> 00:20:39,299 intermediate term overbought scenario, it helps us frame the model without using any indicators. Once we arrive at discount monthly PD arrays, we go down through
127 00:20:39,299 --> 00:20:49,229 the monthly, the weekly, the daily and the four hour to reference all of its individual unique discount arrays. Every single one of these, even if we missed
128 00:20:49,259 --> 00:20:58,799 the monthly discount array, and prices already moved away from it, we can't use it, but we can refer to it as an indication that markets wanting to go higher.
129 00:20:59,009 --> 00:21:07,289 So therefore, we're identifying that weekly premium level as a target. So whatever that range is, that's where we're waiting for it to trade up to between
130 00:21:07,289 --> 00:21:17,999 them two points, there may be 1000s, or hundreds of pips in terms of the difference between the monthly discount level and the weekly premium. So we
131 00:21:17,999 --> 00:21:26,459 dropped down to the weekly the daily in the four hour for all of the discount PD arrays, for which order blocks, bullish breakers, bullish mitigation blocks,
132 00:21:26,609 --> 00:21:37,589 liquidity voids below current market action, fair value gets below current market action. Rejection blocks old candle bodies with long wicks below it,
133 00:21:38,189 --> 00:21:48,239 maybe want to reach down below that or it could be just a run on an old low or return back to an old high historically, those are all discount arrays, we look
134 00:21:48,239 --> 00:21:55,229 for them from the monthly and then drop down into a weekly find whatever they are there on that timeframe then the daily in the four hour, any one of those
135 00:21:55,229 --> 00:22:04,199 timeframes, okay, we're searching and determining whatever the PD arrays are from a discount basis. But we're framing the directional move from the monthly
136 00:22:05,969 --> 00:22:10,019 We timed all of those potential setups with the one hour chart
137 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:22,410 aiming for that weekly premium array. And again, it could be multiple short term trades forming between the monthly the weekly and daily getting to that weekly
138 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:30,600 premium array. Again, we drop down to a four hour chart, once we get into the four hour, the trades start to fall off a lot in terms of the frequency or
139 00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:45,780 multitude. Okay, if we look at how we can use the same model dropping down from a weekly chart, we can start from a weekly premium, looking into a lower
140 00:22:45,780 --> 00:22:56,280 timeframe daily discount, and we're gonna be scouting opposing PD arrays respectively. And from a weekly from two daily to a four hour we're looking for
141 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:04,410 all the premium arrays that we can short from and we key off of whatever they are, we wait for price to trade to them. And then we use the one hour chart to
142 00:23:04,410 --> 00:23:16,920 sell short from that's our executable timeframe. Aiming for that lower level timeframe daily discount. This my friends, is the one shot one kill setup. This
143 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:25,410 is my bread and butter. This is the one that has consistent setups every single week. There's something to trade off, but you have to go through the process of
144 00:23:25,410 --> 00:23:40,800 waiting for it to give it to you. The opposite same here, when we're looking for a weekly discount, scouting an opposing PD array for daily premium level. We
145 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:50,220 dropped down from the weekly the daily and the four hour looking for all the discount PD arrays executing on any one of them from a one hour chart. And
146 00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:52,980 again, this is the one shot one kill setup for Long's.
147 00:23:59,550 --> 00:24:08,610 Okay, we talked about the swing trade progression. And it's important to bring this back up again because without this understanding, it's going to be a little
148 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:18,150 too vague. But I gave you a model which we thought that maybe this is a six month outlook on price. Okay, maybe it's a little too aggressive to say six
149 00:24:18,150 --> 00:24:27,270 months. But just for the sake of argument and discussion, let's just say this whole entire range of higher highs and higher lows is six months and we had the
150 00:24:27,270 --> 00:24:36,000 benefit of forecasting the potential move to see this unfold. Each one of these price legs has a impulse leg and it has a retracement then there's an expansion
151 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:48,180 swing. Inside of each individual impulse swing there could be smaller impulse and expansion swings in each expansion swing. Again. Just like we saw the
152 00:24:48,180 --> 00:24:57,690 impulse swing can be broken down to a smaller timeframe seeing its own individual unique impulse swing and expansion swing. And this is repeated
153 00:24:57,690 --> 00:25:10,290 throughout the entire fractal that is seen In price as a short term trader with this alone, there is a plethora of many, many SEC setups and signals that you
154 00:25:10,290 --> 00:25:24,180 can find just trading with one market one pair. If this is a whole landscape, if you will have six months of price data, this could be every load it trades from
155 00:25:24,180 --> 00:25:34,530 and trades higher, every single time it makes a loan moves up graphically, that is a potential short term trade. So just from this chart alone, if you take a
156 00:25:34,530 --> 00:25:44,520 moment and count every time it creates a move up, use that lowest point at which you could frame a short term trade, count them, I'll give you a moment to do so.
157 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:59,250 There's potentially just on Long's there's eight short term setups here, just by breaking the fractal down one scale. But we can go further than that. And break
158 00:25:59,250 --> 00:26:10,200 down the smaller swings into their individual impulse swing retracement, and expansion swing. And smaller expansion swing can be further broken down. Each
159 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:18,090 individual fractal can be broken down to a less fractal. Now if we count how many opportunities you could be a buyer, when you're bullish, and you can frame
160 00:26:18,090 --> 00:26:30,360 the marketplace correctly. How many opportunities do you see here in terms of potential buys? There's potentially 16 buying opportunities in this overall
161 00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:40,860 fractal. That's not counting any short term trades that you could have done on all the retracements. Every little red section in here. They could also be short
162 00:26:40,860 --> 00:26:56,580 term trades as well. If we couple those, with the buying opportunities, there's a great deal more trades that are available as a short term trader. Okay, the
163 00:26:56,580 --> 00:27:04,740 general concept revisited. We're looking for a market that is poised to trade higher on a higher timeframe. Now, we're going to be looking for seasonal
164 00:27:04,740 --> 00:27:12,630 tendencies to help us. We don't require it. But there always going to be a bonus. And we're looking for interest rate driven conditions. In other words, is
165 00:27:12,630 --> 00:27:22,710 there the bond market? Is it moving? Is it stagnant? It's going sideways? Preferably we're looking for a market that's moving around. Just commitment
166 00:27:22,710 --> 00:27:29,220 traders support the hedging program about the commercials are they buying are they selling. In this case, if we're looking for a bullish scenario, we're
167 00:27:29,220 --> 00:27:37,170 looking for commercials to be lessening their short positions or aggressively adding or already net long. And we're using inner market analysis to support
168 00:27:37,170 --> 00:27:50,970 bullishness, that could be in the form of supporting with s&p divergence, or correlated pair SMT. We're looking for a market that rallies higher than
169 00:27:50,970 --> 00:27:59,670 retraces and this is going to occur Monday through Wednesday. So now we're getting more time specific. And then we look for the market to expand up into
170 00:27:59,670 --> 00:28:07,980 higher highs. So before we do anything, we're going to already have our point of origin. In other words, that's gonna be the reference point from a monthly
171 00:28:07,980 --> 00:28:19,650 standpoint and or dropping down to the weekly daily and four hour and we're going to know what PD array in the premium we're aiming for. So we see that
172 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:30,450 impulse swing. It's Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday we were looking for an up move to suggest it is in fact buying. So that impulse swing is the telltale sign that
173 00:28:30,450 --> 00:28:38,610 there are smart money players in the marketplace pushing price higher. That's we're looking for an underlying we're expecting higher prices anyway. But now
174 00:28:38,610 --> 00:28:47,760 we're seeing we're waiting for the retracement. That retracement is going to come again between Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It could happen directly right
175 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:54,990 off of Sunday's rally. And then Monday May May be the retracement or it could just start right from Monday and have a very shallow retracement of one day
176 00:28:55,650 --> 00:28:57,660 between Monday and Wednesday.
177 00:28:59,370 --> 00:29:09,390 During that retracement, we're gonna be looking for or anticipating the next move higher driving its move higher into that premium array that we're looking
178 00:29:09,390 --> 00:29:21,060 for. That expansion swing is where we're looking to be profitable. And framing the retracement from the point of origin. That's where we're looking for our
179 00:29:21,150 --> 00:29:35,370 executable timeframe hourly for our daily, weekly, monthly discount pdra. We're looking for all these potential levels as price starts to drop down. Now it
180 00:29:35,370 --> 00:29:45,750 looks like graphically it's only on Wednesday but for the sake of discussion and keeping the slide clean. This retracement and the discount PD array matrix is
181 00:29:45,780 --> 00:29:52,980 applied through the entire range across the days of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. So in other words, what I'm saying is from Monday, Tuesday and
182 00:29:52,980 --> 00:30:07,740 Wednesday during any retracement lower. We're looking for a monthly weekly daily for our day Can't array the trade off of aiming for the weekly premium array.
183 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:20,910 And it has to drop down into a kill zone. Now, what kill zones Could you be trading? Obviously, you all know that I like to trade the London Open and I like
184 00:30:20,910 --> 00:30:31,950 to trade in New York open. If you're new trading the Aussie Kiwi or Japanese yen you want to be including the Asian session kills him. Okay, so you can go into
185 00:30:31,950 --> 00:30:42,990 my free tutorial stuff and see what that actually is. But for a quick down and dirty timeframe, what you're looking for is 2300 hours to or basically, you're
186 00:30:42,990 --> 00:30:56,130 going to be looking at 6pm to 9pm. New York Standard Time, wherever time is in New York 6pm to 9pm. There's your sweet spot for Asia. Okay, there you go.
187 00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:04,260 Nothing, nothing easier than that. Now, many times you can extend a 10 o'clock but usually you don't want to do anything after 10 The closer you get to 10,
188 00:31:04,260 --> 00:31:14,880 that's kind of like their lunch time. So you don't want to do anything around 10. And ultimately, if price drops down, give you retracement into a discount
189 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:26,100 pdra from a monthly, weekly daily or four hour level. You can see that also can be used from an hourly executable timeframe. So if you get a hourly discount
190 00:31:26,100 --> 00:31:36,150 pdra They can be executed on as well inside of a kill zone. Again, you're looking for that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday setup that you're aiming for the
191 00:31:36,150 --> 00:31:45,450 weekly pdra. If you don't want shot, one kill, you're looking for that daily PD right. But framing off of a weekly discount.
192 00:31:50,460 --> 00:31:59,790 general concept revisited again in bearish markets before a market is poised to trade lower on a higher timeframe. We're looking for any market that would
193 00:31:59,820 --> 00:32:06,330 potentially move lower seasonally but it doesn't have to. We don't need to seasonal tendency there. Again, it's it's always a bonus or a plus, if you will
194 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:14,700 if we can use a market that has a bearish seasonal tendency. Are interest rates moving or are they stagnant? Preferably we're looking for a market that has the
195 00:32:14,700 --> 00:32:24,900 bond market moving all around the 10 year notes are moving around that's held in consolidation and commitment of traders. Are we looking at a lessening of long
196 00:32:24,900 --> 00:32:33,600 positions by the commercials or are we seeing a heavy net short position being built or are they already net short? Those are the conditions we're looking for
197 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:44,430 from a co2 standpoint. And inter market analysis supports the bearishness that means SMT divergence is indicating weakness or correlated pair SMT suggests that
198 00:32:44,430 --> 00:32:54,150 there should be a overall sympathy move lower for foreign currencies or for trading stocks, you'll learn all that as well with the indices versus the
199 00:32:54,240 --> 00:33:05,280 leadership issues. And we're looking for a market decline lower than retrace higher during Monday into Wednesday. And then we're gonna be looking for a
200 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:21,330 market to expand down to lower lows. So we have our point of origin from a higher timeframe monthly premium array. Trades lower impulse swing, and then
201 00:33:21,330 --> 00:33:29,850 there's a retracement again, this is all occurring between Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, any one of those three days this scenario or condition has to be
202 00:33:29,850 --> 00:33:42,450 here. And that retracement has to come up to a level of premium. And then the expansion swing is what we're looking for to be profitable in aiming for the
203 00:33:42,450 --> 00:33:56,940 discount array reframing our trade with premium array matrix. So we're looking for a monthly weekly daily for hour and one hour premium array to short from in
204 00:33:56,940 --> 00:34:14,970 a kill zone. For time D analysis. K monthly ranges. Our prices fractal and higher time frame analysis benefits us as a result. We note the high and low of
205 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:26,430 every month candle. We need to present range in terms of premium and or discount. We consider where price on the monthly will or could draw to other
206 00:34:26,430 --> 00:34:37,680 words, what's the most likely direction there is generally four weekly candles in every monthly candle. Every week, we study where the monthly will likely
207 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:46,680 trade next. Again, all we're doing is looking for probabilities. There's nothing that I teach with 100% ironclad this is where it's going to happen every single
208 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:55,710 time. There's no absolutions there's only probability so we're looking for these higher timeframes to look for where's it most likely reaching for because if
209 00:34:55,710 --> 00:35:03,210 we're trading off of a monthly chart and we can pick the most probable direction, chances are Even if we're wrong, you know, the lower timeframes that
210 00:35:03,210 --> 00:35:14,250 we're gonna be executing on still might give us opportunity to be paid. And in usually monthly ranges, we frame trades on the weekly range. Alright, so what's
211 00:35:14,250 --> 00:35:26,160 a weekly range? Again, prices fractal and monthly analysis builds on a weekly, we know the high and a low of every weekly candle. We note the present range in
212 00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:35,190 terms of premium and or discount. We consider where price on the weekly will or could draw to, again, what's the most probable direction in terms of whether
213 00:35:35,190 --> 00:35:46,800 weekly chart is trading and where it may reach up or lower to. There's generally five daily candles in every weekly candle. And every week, we study how the
214 00:35:46,800 --> 00:36:01,050 weekly trades inside of its monthly range. Using weekly ranges, we frame trades on the daily chart. We're watching to see if the weeklies continuously expand
215 00:36:01,140 --> 00:36:12,210 and make the larger monthly candle move in the direction we thought they were going to go. So each week we're looking for Confluence and confirmation that we
216 00:36:12,210 --> 00:36:20,010 anticipated seeing on the monthly is in fact unfolding because the weeklies will be pushing that direction, hopefully in our favor. And then making that weekly
217 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:29,280 range expand every hire or every lower weekly candle will build that bigger monthly candle in respective direction.
218 00:36:34,470 --> 00:36:45,660 Okay, so let's take a look at an example. Alright, so here we're looking at the Japanese yen, this is a monthly chart. And you can see from 2015 springtime
219 00:36:45,660 --> 00:37:01,800 going into June 2015, we saw the Japanese yen, or dollar yen pair trade up into around the 125 80 level or there abouts. And we moved from a low formed back in
220 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:16,080 2013. And then we dropped from the 120 fives into around June of 2016. If you look at the total range, we have obviously moved into a discount market. And we
221 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:29,400 look at the markets old support levels found at the February 2014 to June 2014, there was a lot of support seen in there. So products came all the way down into
222 00:37:29,430 --> 00:37:37,380 the point of origin, where we think the market will and with the benefit of hindsight here, I'm not going to be slicing and dicing charts because we call
223 00:37:37,380 --> 00:37:50,100 the Japanese yen, lower, which is dollar yen higher all through the month in 2016, as we see here. But looking at this example, we have a point of origin
224 00:37:50,100 --> 00:37:58,980 where we think price may want to go higher. And then once we see that, we start looking at all of the monthly discount PD arrays, I'm framing the last down
225 00:37:58,980 --> 00:38:07,110 candle right before the big move starts to take place. That is a monthly candle and we start looking at the monthly range. But that's not the monthly range
226 00:38:07,110 --> 00:38:16,320 we're trading in that says a monthly range. So don't be this. Don't be confused. When I start talking about monthly ranges. I may interchangeably refer to a
227 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:24,240 monthly candle or it's individual or independent range. That's not the monthly range we're going to be referring to I'm actually going to distinguish the two.
228 00:38:28,710 --> 00:38:41,400 Okay, so we have that one month candle range defined. And we're gonna go back to when the monthly level where are our monthly premium arrays? Well, you have a
229 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:55,650 breaker here. So we framenet. So there's a mood that we can look up to for a monthly level. So we have both our monthly discount and premium arrays. This is
230 00:38:55,650 --> 00:38:56,610 our monthly range.
231 00:39:01,889 --> 00:39:14,759 This is our range for trading the monthly range. In other words, what's our probable range of probability or profitability where we'll be expect to see
232 00:39:14,759 --> 00:39:28,619 moves take place. We take that range and we apply it to a weekly chart and refine that down into that individual weekly PD arrays in terms of a premium
233 00:39:28,619 --> 00:39:35,069 array. So we have here weekly premium arrays outlined, I didn't put every single one of them on here just to keep the chart clean, so that we can go through and
234 00:39:35,069 --> 00:39:43,889 have many examples for your study. Go through and find out where all the other ones are. Okay, go through the individual, weekly chart, and monthly chart and
235 00:39:43,889 --> 00:39:51,089 you can see how price head respected a lot of the other ones, too, that aren't being used here. But I just gave you the obvious ones. I use rejection blocks
236 00:39:51,089 --> 00:40:02,039 here for weekly premium arrays. And so when price broke away from that 104 35 level and started expanding reaching up in the 1860s level, that weekly premium
237 00:40:02,039 --> 00:40:21,599 array. It had three lesser lower weekly premium arrays, old lows, seen through 2014 Going into 2015. And then we saw rejection block around the 111 level. And
238 00:40:21,599 --> 00:40:31,079 then we've got another rejection block around the 106. Big figure, as noted here, so they're all objectives or where price should reach up to. So if you
239 00:40:31,079 --> 00:40:43,949 look at that, it's still a great deal of opportunity between just those four premium arrays on a weekly chart. Dropping down into a daily chart, you can see
240 00:40:43,949 --> 00:40:55,469 a little bit more detail and how price had reached from the one for 35 up to the each one of those weekly premium arrays, all being catalysts for higher prices.
241 00:40:59,069 --> 00:41:10,439 Now we get into a four hour chart, we can start applying all of the order block theory and rejection block theory. And we're also incorporating now the day of
242 00:41:10,439 --> 00:41:21,479 week filter, which is Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. So I've shaded where every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesdays range is. And I'm also highlighting order blocks
243 00:41:22,229 --> 00:41:35,969 for bullish by. And I'm also highlighting mitigation. And I'm also highlighting rejection blocks. All of these are discount arrays, and the red shaded area up
244 00:41:35,969 --> 00:41:50,789 is at 118 70 level or there abouts. That's the premium array on a weekly basis that we're reaching for. So how many buying opportunities Did you see here? Six,
245 00:41:51,569 --> 00:42:02,609 one each week. Let's break it down a little bit more detail. Again, taking all the unnecessary things off the chart. And you can see how price has moved rather
246 00:42:03,059 --> 00:42:14,879 uniformly and systematic each new week, giving you buying opportunities in our ad all the individual day dividers, and I want you to take a look at something
247 00:42:16,019 --> 00:42:26,759 as the weekly ranges defined by the double line vertical dashed lines, okay, that delineates the Sundays. So everything to the right of those double vertical
248 00:42:26,759 --> 00:42:37,679 lines that are dashed that represents a Sunday trading. To the right of it, you got Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday shaded. Notice how the lows of the week are
249 00:42:37,679 --> 00:42:48,569 generally formed in Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. In this context, also notice that when you see the high that's formed between Monday and Wednesday, say for
250 00:42:48,569 --> 00:42:59,039 instance, that there's a higher that forms during the Monday through Wednesday range. When that highest taken out intra week. This is significant, because
251 00:42:59,039 --> 00:43:07,589 price will tend to expand aggressively towards the monthly and or weekly premium array. And it's reversed if it's bearish. So what we're doing is we're looking
252 00:43:07,589 --> 00:43:17,429 for the Monday through Wednesday range every single week, when that is bullish underlying in the market. And if you break that range that's defined by
253 00:43:17,999 --> 00:43:25,589 technically Sunday's opening, but just for the sake of keeping things germane, and, and consistent because I did mention how we didn't really refer to Sundays
254 00:43:25,589 --> 00:43:37,349 anymore. You can use Sunday for completeness sake, but from a Monday's opening to Tuesday and Wednesdays range, whatever the highest high is when month when
255 00:43:37,379 --> 00:43:46,919 when the markets are bullish. If that high is broken into week, say for instance, on Thursday or Friday, generally that is indicative of an aggressive
256 00:43:47,159 --> 00:43:54,629 confirmation that we're going to be moving to our premium array that we were looking for or identified ahead of time. And then everything you see here would
257 00:43:54,629 --> 00:43:56,909 just be reversed for bearish markets.
258 00:43:58,830 --> 00:44:08,310 Monday through Wednesday's range, if that is broken when it's bullish, the high that's formed between Monday and Wednesday. That is a confirmation that you are
259 00:44:08,310 --> 00:44:18,600 in a buy program and the markets will expand aggressively to reach for your higher level premium array. When the markets are bearish. The load is formed
260 00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:28,170 between Monday through Wednesday, if that is broken on an intra week basis, that is confirmation that you are an aggressive sell off or sell program. And your
261 00:44:28,170 --> 00:44:35,910 long term higher timeframe discount or rate you're aiming for is a high probability condition that's going to reach for that may not happen that week.
262 00:44:35,940 --> 00:44:42,900 But you're gonna keep looking for the next week to be bullish, or bearish respectively based on that information. So hopefully you found this teaching
263 00:44:42,900 --> 00:44:50,760 insightful we're going to be building on a lot of these ideas and a lot more detail leading into the ultimate delivery of one shot one kill and in a process
264 00:44:50,790 --> 00:44:57,690 oriented rule based break down what you do from beginning to end execution. And until next session. wish good luck and good trading