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61-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 6 - High Probability Swing Trade Setups In Bear Markets

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-24 07:30
1 00:00:10,260 --> 00:00:21,570 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is lesson five of February 2017, ICT mentorship, teaching, swing trading, and this discussion is going to be on high probability
2 00:00:21,570 --> 00:00:23,880 swing trade setups in bear markets.
3 00:00:30,300 --> 00:00:43,440 Okay, like we did with the bowl setups. The PDA array matrix, again is included here just as a reference point. And I don't know what time you're going to refer
4 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:51,570 back to this video again. That way it saves you some time going back and forth looking for it, we're gonna be dealing with the premium side of the PDA array
5 00:00:51,600 --> 00:01:03,870 matrix. Okay, the bearish monthly, weekly daily sequential. Okay on a monthly chart, premium array has shown to induce selling as evidenced by price moving
6 00:01:03,900 --> 00:01:16,920 lower. On a weekly chart, we see premium arrays showing the ability to induce selling and it's evidenced by price moving lower on a daily chart and a premium
7 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:28,920 array has shown to induce selling as evidenced by price moving lower. So all three timeframes monthly, weekly and daily, all showing a premium array, driving
8 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:43,620 price lower or resisting price. In all timeframes all candles provide new resistance to price and little to no strength is seen. Okay when all three
9 00:01:43,620 --> 00:01:56,040 timeframes are bearish you're going to be looking to sell all daily bearish premium arrays and they're going to be in the form of an old high or low a
10 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:14,880 rejection block above the candles bodies. A bearish order block the fair value gap or liquidity void bearish breaker in any bearish mitigation block and you're
11 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,790 gonna sell every four hour bearish premium array.
12 00:02:23,370 --> 00:02:33,630 When the monthly is bearish, the weekly is bearish and the daily is bullish. That means there's a correction it's underway on a daily chart. You're gonna
13 00:02:33,630 --> 00:02:48,180 sell daily bearish premium arrays at or nested in weekly premium arrays. You're going to sell for our bearish premium arrays at daily and or nested in weekly
14 00:02:48,210 --> 00:02:59,310 bearish premium arrays. You're going to avoid selling daily premium arrays if the daily has just posted a lower low and rejected this is going to be seen as a
15 00:02:59,310 --> 00:03:00,120 bullish breaker
16 00:03:07,140 --> 00:03:16,620 the monthly being bearish, the weekly being bullish and the daily being bullish. You're gonna sell all daily bearish premium arrays at or nested in the monthly
17 00:03:16,650 --> 00:03:29,190 premium arrays. You're gonna sell for our bearish premium arrays at weekly and or nested in monthly bearish premium arrays and you know avoid selling weekly
18 00:03:29,190 --> 00:03:36,240 premium arrays if Weekly has just posted a lower low and rejected this will be seen as a bullish breaker
19 00:03:41,610 --> 00:03:53,550 cane is example for high probability sell setups. We're gonna be looking at the monthly weekly daily sequential with the Eurodollar. Can we have Euro dollar
20 00:03:53,550 --> 00:04:05,130 here on the monthly chart and we have 18 months worth of data highlighted in here and inside the 18 months worth of data we're going to be looking at all the
21 00:04:05,130 --> 00:04:11,940 premium PD arrays and we're going to draw out our up candles with the lows
22 00:04:28,380 --> 00:04:49,560 every up candle okay has its low noted and we're also going to note all of the opens on the up candles and we're gonna drop down into a weekly chart. Okay, so
23 00:04:49,560 --> 00:05:04,470 now we have our monthly levels down on our weekly chart of the Euro dollar and now we're refine it to showing the weekly levels. Okay, so we have our weekly
24 00:05:04,470 --> 00:05:21,510 levels here with the low on all the up candles delineating a bearish order block. Take notice also that we're using the red trend lines to delineate the
25 00:05:21,510 --> 00:05:33,180 weekly bearish order blocks and we're also going to now delineate the mean thresholds of all of the bullish candles prior to a down move which is a bearish
26 00:05:33,180 --> 00:05:48,450 order block Okay, so now we have all the mean thresholds of the parish order blocks since here overlapping with a monthly order blocks open
27 00:05:54,150 --> 00:06:06,870 mean threshold of polish or black in here, but combining both the bodies and we had the open on this candle here delineated and we're going to use one more
28 00:06:06,870 --> 00:06:08,310 reference point for this one
29 00:06:15,630 --> 00:06:27,630 right there delineating the range from this high to this low the body is only not the wicks and mean threshold right here. Okay, so we're going to take our
30 00:06:27,630 --> 00:06:43,170 levels now and move them down into a daily timeframe. Okay, so now we have our daily chart indicating our monthly and weekly PD arrays in the form of bearish
31 00:06:43,200 --> 00:07:01,140 order blocks and the openings of those bullish candles. You see the market did in fact trade up into an opening of a monthly bearish order block to these heavy
32 00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:15,240 lines are and the blue lines that are thin, they're going to be the monthly BOC on a monthly basis the low so just keep in mind that the heavier blue lines
33 00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:35,190 there are the openings on the bearish order blocks on a monthly basis to price trades up closes in this little gap in here also gives a deep retracement so in
34 00:07:35,190 --> 00:07:47,430 terms of the range between this high in this low with this high be in the premium or the discount range. Clearly it's in the premium range in price also
35 00:07:47,430 --> 00:08:10,260 trades to a weekly order block its bearish price hits it perfectly and trades lower price trades up into a weekly order block as well here sells off price
36 00:08:10,260 --> 00:08:23,340 trades lower and comes all the way back up to a weekly order block pdra comes back and retraces and rallies one more time. Now notice it's trading through or
37 00:08:23,370 --> 00:08:36,810 deeper into a monthly bullish candle which is a bearish order block. So it's trading up into and it's also overlaying inside here with a weekly bearish order
38 00:08:36,810 --> 00:08:47,190 blocks mean threshold so all the dashed lines that are red that's the mean threshold of a weekly bearish order block it's hard to see it in here but it's
39 00:08:47,190 --> 00:08:56,670 in there overlapping with the opening on a monthly bearish order block as well price trades up until it sells off comes back one more time hits that level
40 00:08:56,670 --> 00:09:09,660 again trades off one more time comes back up trades into a previous weekly order block level just extended out in time we do that now as you can see it for
41 00:09:09,660 --> 00:09:25,350 clarity sake okay perfect delivery of price price trades down one more time hits this weekly order block level as well perfectly trades down no weekly order
42 00:09:25,350 --> 00:09:35,670 block level on here trades through it opens right at that level expands away from it progressively moves towards this old low trades through a constraint
43 00:09:35,670 --> 00:09:50,550 back and hits. This low memory a PDA array can be an old low traitor to OBO up to a now a daily bearish order block which is the last up candle ready for the
44 00:09:50,550 --> 00:10:01,890 down move. So we have a new level we can apply. Okay so we have a daily bearish order block right here. Price hits it trades away come backed up. Notice this
45 00:10:01,890 --> 00:10:16,470 rally up in here, it acts as resistance trades lower it seeks every time price moves lower, it's seeking a discount pdra. In other words, anything that would
46 00:10:16,470 --> 00:10:26,550 be bullish like a bullish order block, a liquidity void or gap below price, a rejection block below the bodies of the candles, and old low. All those ideas
47 00:10:26,550 --> 00:10:36,600 that would be viewed as a discount or a buying scenario, that's what price will be looking to seek to find as a downside objective. And eventually, price makes
48 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:45,930 a low in stocks that move higher. We're not talking about trend reversals in this discussion. So we're going to just delineate this marker here. Just for the
49 00:10:45,930 --> 00:10:54,150 sake of discussion, we'll just say you took another opportunity to go short here and it stops you to say that there's no arguing without being cherry picking do
50 00:10:54,150 --> 00:11:04,080 we have all of our levels from the monthly weekly and daily on our daily timeframe, monthly and weekly levels transposed to the daily, so our executable
51 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:11,820 timeframe is the four hour so what we do is we look for all these levels to be moved to our four hour chart.
52 00:11:15,390 --> 00:11:24,840 Okay, so we have our four hour chart here, the Euro dollar, and this was the highest of all the, the peaks before it started trading lower, we have a big
53 00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:41,790 range between this high and this low. And we're gonna take a look at that in terms of our, our low and our high and we are in a premium area here above
54 00:11:41,790 --> 00:11:52,260 equilibrium, so we are on the selling side of the marketplace. Also note that it's also occurring Edie mitigation block a down camera recording up move that
55 00:11:52,260 --> 00:12:08,370 we're below we trade back up to let's remove our Fibonacci expansion Okay, so we can have a horizontal line added at this candles high in takes you right to that
56 00:12:08,370 --> 00:12:20,640 level here. Notice there's no down candle here. It's all just ranges, it's this extreme ranges for the void. But we have one little down candle right here right
57 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:30,810 before that move. So price trades through that comes back to it as a mitigation block. There was one little pass in here where they did try to get some of the
58 00:12:30,810 --> 00:12:37,890 logs off the date would have had here that would be underwater before it took off and went lower. This was their opportunity to unload those logs that were
59 00:12:37,890 --> 00:12:49,710 used to drive price up to these levels near mitigated those logs here. So you can see that that level is indicated here. Okay, so we've changed this to a
60 00:12:49,710 --> 00:13:03,150 short little line in here to indicating a four hour mitigation block or start looking at all the up candles prior to down moves on I want to zoom in Okay, so
61 00:13:03,150 --> 00:13:15,930 we have these last two up candles in here that could be a potential bearish order block we had this last up candle here that hits that same level at left
62 00:13:15,930 --> 00:13:18,960 back here that becomes a potential bearish order block
63 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:44,040 okay and this one here becomes a potential bearish order block all these candles in here are up moves going into this decline bearish order block
64 00:13:56,460 --> 00:13:58,080 okay we have a bearish order block there
65 00:14:07,290 --> 00:14:17,880 okay, bearish order block here you see that would have been a loss if it was executed on okay so we have a bearish order block here all three of these
66 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:27,870 candles together is one consecutive candle up break for the down move. That's a potential bearish order block trades up into also trades into this little one
67 00:14:27,870 --> 00:14:36,660 here. We are not going to have that in here just to keep the charts clean to me have 123 Candles trading up for the down move central bearish order block trades
68 00:14:36,660 --> 00:14:48,330 into it here. This is an overlap right here this candle right there. That last one. So when price trades away from it, this right here could have been treated
69 00:14:48,330 --> 00:15:05,520 as a bearish order block and it would have been a losing trade their price trades all the way back up into an area which is here becomes a bear shorter
70 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:22,110 block right there gives you a little bit of move that eventually comes back that would have been stopped out and we have this area up here and all practical high
71 00:15:26,700 --> 00:15:49,680 up their price trades to hear their shoulder block starts to sell off we have another opportunity presented here last up candle right for that move didn't
72 00:15:49,680 --> 00:16:07,380 quite get to it there we have a bearish order block right here it's it sells off a little bit trade down into a monthly level trades one more time out two trades
73 00:16:07,380 --> 00:16:17,790 back down to the monthly level again we're in a range bound consolidation. So you have to look outside of the range for where the stops would be that's back
74 00:16:17,790 --> 00:16:38,430 here and below here so in price trades above it, we have an old high we'll add that as a horizontal line here and we'll change that to a black line just to
75 00:16:38,430 --> 00:16:50,280 keep things distinct price trades above the old high memory that's a that's a premium PD array an old high false break above it sell off
76 00:16:55,890 --> 00:17:09,810 price trades down we have a potential bearish order block and here could be shorted at okay. And price sells off. We have a candle right before the Dow
77 00:17:09,810 --> 00:17:21,810 moving here right there. That's a potential bearish order block right there. And then we have another up candle right for this down move this moves away from
78 00:17:21,810 --> 00:17:26,970 this rally here that could be a potential selling opportunity
79 00:17:32,610 --> 00:17:50,040 and here we have one more in here these last two candles right before the down move bearish order block, sell it back in here we have a fair value gap right
80 00:17:50,040 --> 00:18:06,660 between here this is a potential selling opportunity right there since goes up in that area we can sell it at and we have another bearish order block right
81 00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:20,400 here. And then price trades down finds a low starts coming up. We could look for a selling opportunity at this level here right there. And you could be selling
82 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:28,170 short here and this would be a stop out. So you can see there's a lot of potential entries that were profitable but there are a few that you could have
83 00:18:28,170 --> 00:18:37,200 taken that would have stopped you out and resulted in a losing trade or focusing only on the sell side so when we get up into this area here we're up into a
84 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:55,740 higher level premium price hits an old area of monthly and weekly PD arrays Okay, we have a breaker in here today on candles right before it takes out old
85 00:18:55,740 --> 00:19:09,270 highs price trades back up into that breaker here spent a little bit of time on the four hour Forex expands and goes lower. And then we have our one two candles
86 00:19:09,300 --> 00:19:17,520 up for the down move to tiny of a body and it's also encapsulated inside this last up candle and there's just little green candles bodies is basically it's
87 00:19:17,550 --> 00:19:29,940 it's inside of this up candle. So we don't look at that as a bullish order block we used a big beefier body candle and that would be seen here. Okay, price
88 00:19:29,940 --> 00:19:45,600 trades up into a bearish order block and also we're seeing the weekly levels coming to fruition in here. Price trades down to a monthly level look at the
89 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:56,430 consolidation around that monthly level and then subsequent weekly level. Multiple little bearish order blocks in here. I'll let you study that on your
90 00:19:56,430 --> 00:20:00,630 own and we have another bearish order I can hear
91 00:20:08,429 --> 00:20:25,979 eight there we have another bearish order block here, but we can also use this last one here. That's the real reference point right there last big candle
92 00:20:26,009 --> 00:20:47,909 before the move starts to come down as your reference point there and we have one more here that could have been used as a short that could have eventually
93 00:20:47,969 --> 00:21:03,359 led to a losing trade in there and we have the market trading at an old low as a PDA on a premium basis, although here trades to it there
94 00:21:10,170 --> 00:21:27,780 and we get back up into the weekly and above a monthly PD Ray less candle refer down mu hits it trades into a bearish order block their trades lower. Again,
95 00:21:27,780 --> 00:21:40,320 these are swing trades that could be two weeks to one month. But you have to take some profits at a logical area as well to have equal lows here on a four
96 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:54,390 hour basis. So if shorting from this level here let's test an idea here for a moment. Let's say for instance, you were shorting here to get below these lows
97 00:21:54,390 --> 00:22:11,340 over here. That's 245 pips just to get below these lows over here, and it moved to a range of 289 pips. That's basically what you're looking at here, that white
98 00:22:11,370 --> 00:22:31,350 shaded area, that's the setup. And the move finishes on February 16 of 2012 and begins on February 13. So it's a three day trade. Not quite a swing trade, but
99 00:22:31,770 --> 00:22:43,500 it did pay out a pretty good payout just didn't fit the time criteria and then we have the market trading back up into a monthly order block level and becomes
100 00:22:43,500 --> 00:22:55,500 a weekly order block level as well. And later time you see the sensitivity of those levels, again over here. Weekly levels, weekly levels in here as well
101 00:22:55,530 --> 00:23:12,210 trades back up into a bearish order block here sells off spends a lot of time at a monthly level and a subsequent weekly level, it's overlapped in here and it
102 00:23:12,210 --> 00:23:32,640 breaks away trades down into an old low taking out that low right here. With this run trades back up into our weekly levels. Here trades right back up into
103 00:23:33,900 --> 00:23:46,140 mitigation blocks here. False break above short term high trades lower consolidation and expands again taking out the sell side liquidity below the
104 00:23:46,140 --> 00:24:05,190 marketplace or a discount pdra spent some time around a monthly level and expands away price seeks to go lower. Last two candles rate for the down move
105 00:24:05,340 --> 00:24:17,010 this candle becomes a valid break of a bearish order block trades back into that range here mean threshold of both the bodies of these candles together. Price
106 00:24:17,010 --> 00:24:28,020 sells off. And notice how all our candles provide resistance. That's what we're looking for. We're looking for ideas that all green candles are basically
107 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:38,010 resistance levels. Okay when price is trading back up into them, we should see that operate as resistance. Even if they end up getting broken at a later time.
108 00:24:38,370 --> 00:24:46,410 They still provide the measure of resistance that we would look for for institutional sponsorship. For instance, these two candles over here. Price
109 00:24:46,410 --> 00:24:54,540 trades up into it here, right there. That's an opportunity to sell short and look at the move there. Take a look at that one.
110 00:25:03,540 --> 00:25:20,760 gain short there with a range of 536 pips. The low forms on June 1 2012. Can move begins on May 21 2012. So you can see there's a pretty significant trade
111 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:37,560 there. Trading again using the ideas. monthly, weekly daily and into for our we see our levels here on a daily timeframe. That's what these black lines are.
112 00:25:39,030 --> 00:25:50,100 Price trades away from this last candle right for them move trades back up into it here as a bearish order block trades lower in price seeks the move below this
113 00:25:50,100 --> 00:26:10,020 low here to get the discount pdra. Up candle, right for a down move should act as resistance it does in here. And here's a potential equal high price trades
114 00:26:10,020 --> 00:26:19,110 back up into that we could look for it to be a sell off starts to sell off, but then comes down just into a four hour bullish order block close in the range.
115 00:26:19,140 --> 00:26:27,300 It's all it gives it and it finally starts to trade higher. And it's outside of our range. For study, I want you to take a look at all of the levels in here
116 00:26:28,590 --> 00:26:38,400 that provide potential setups. And how much of a range we saw from these price points.
117 00:26:48,030 --> 00:27:03,960 Now this is a four hour basis. Okay, look at all the sensitivity on these levels. Now he dropped back up to a daily chart, and you'll see the setups
118 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:13,380 actually become less frequent, but more more stunning in terms of responsiveness. Okay, so you can see all of the opportunities in here on these
119 00:27:13,380 --> 00:27:26,400 levels. And he's for our opportunities do you these would get you in sync with the higher timeframe daily and or weekly. But all of the sensitivity around
120 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:39,750 these levels are all each individual unique setups. And while not every single one of them are profitable, the vast majority of them are. And they provide you
121 00:27:39,750 --> 00:27:49,590 an opportunity to be a short seller at logical levels. And if you keep your focus on the monthly and weekly levels, notice how you get far less
122 00:27:50,040 --> 00:28:03,990 opportunities to be short. But look at the responses at them here, all these dark blue levels in here. Okay, and then you have the weekly levels as well.
123 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:19,920 Very stiff resistance, very stiff resistance in here, layered resistance in here and weekly and monthly layers of resistance. And you have the daily level, which
124 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:30,540 is outlined over here. That's what that is. Okay, you can see there's a lot of opportunity for pips. But when you drop down to a four hour timeframe, they give
125 00:28:30,540 --> 00:28:41,700 you a more refined entry point where it lessens your risk, and it gets you closer to profitability. So just like we showed on the bullish side of buying
126 00:28:41,730 --> 00:28:53,280 with high probability setups, for Swing Trading, the same thing is said on the sell side, just looking for the monthly, the weekly in the daily four hour, all
127 00:28:53,280 --> 00:29:02,640 those levels that go in concert with one another to overlap to converge, the more levels that converge around a specific price level, the more likely it's
128 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:11,970 going to probably be sensitive also. But you want to focus primarily on the monthly and weekly levels because they're going to be the big biggest catalysts
129 00:29:12,270 --> 00:29:19,860 for big moves. And I'm going to take everything off the chart here with the exception of the monthly and weekly levels again, and I want you to take a look
130 00:29:19,860 --> 00:29:31,230 at how much impact it has. Okay, you can see all of the weekly levels in red and all the monthly levels in blue. Very significant price swings bear shorter
131 00:29:31,230 --> 00:29:41,010 blocks. Many times trading at that level. Again, weekly levels can be retreated to monthly levels can be retreated to several times because they're higher
132 00:29:41,010 --> 00:29:51,960 timeframe. Why do we permit higher timeframe levels to be traded to multiple times? Because larger orders and larger positions are built on monthly weekly
133 00:29:52,050 --> 00:30:03,390 levels. So it may require them multiple passes into that level to capitalize that, that particular price level for bearish scenarios or building in bearish
134 00:30:03,510 --> 00:30:14,910 positions, the consolidation in here has been retreated to here as well back up until weekly waterblock and monthly waterblock layered in here. And then
135 00:30:14,910 --> 00:30:28,680 responsiveness off of this level, monthly level over here. And coupled with the weekly permitting some measure of trading through it. In other words, we're not
136 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:38,040 looking for precision always on a monthly and weekly basis because there's going to be a larger order block there. So we could be trading into the mean threshold
137 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:51,900 or it could be using the low. That's why we had to consider if we have a layered area of levels on monthly and weekly, we have to be expecting potential for
138 00:30:51,930 --> 00:30:59,430 maybe getting stopped out but not forgetting the whole idea of the trade or what frames the idea that this market should go lower. And then take the next setup
139 00:30:59,430 --> 00:31:09,570 because if you don't do that you end up missing the move. And again, looking back, I wish I would have did it one more time. Again, reaching for old lows
140 00:31:09,660 --> 00:31:19,860 here. You see also with weekly levels, and finally expanding to the downside. So hopefully this has been insightful to you guys in regards to how you take the
141 00:31:19,860 --> 00:31:28,350 levels from the monthly weekly and daily and transfer them to the four hour chart to look for setups we're going to build on this model in lesson six, and
142 00:31:28,620 --> 00:31:33,240 seven finally with the million dollar swing trading model in less than eight