20-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 3 - The Next Setup - Anticipatory Skill Development
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-09 12:49
| 1 | 00:00:31,350 --> 00:00:41,940 | ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is the fourth teaching of eight of the November 2016 content for the ICT mentorship. Ken, we're gonna talk about some |
| 2 | 00:00:41,940 --> 00:00:53,910 | anticipatory skill sets. And one of the skill sets that I teach is using the monthly chart. But this teaching is going to be specifically dealing with using |
| 3 | 00:00:53,970 --> 00:01:10,440 | institution orderflow. To help you find new setups. When we look at the monthly chart first thing to remember is remind yourself that the monthly chart is only |
| 4 | 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:23,340 | going to move with a great deal of money behind these price swings, retails not going to have it, the idea of seeing the ranges on a monthly chart, that's going |
| 5 | 00:01:23,340 --> 00:01:35,670 | to be a result of enormous amounts of buying or selling interest by the smart money. Again, retail can't move price. So if we can see where they're most |
| 6 | 00:01:35,670 --> 00:01:45,450 | likely going to place orders to buy or sell. And we can see it on the monthly chart, we stand to make a great deal of pips. And we don't have to trade a whole |
| 7 | 00:01:45,450 --> 00:01:59,850 | lot to do it. But I want you to think about the opens the highs, the close and the low of every single candle on a monthly chart over the last three months. |
| 8 | 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:09,360 | That repaired that you that you have on your platform. This is a good study not to trade every single pair but I want you to go back over every pair that you |
| 9 | 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:19,470 | think is of interest to you and have the open high low and close delineated on a monthly chart over the last three months. So that will look like this. We're in |
| 10 | 00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:34,890 | November now Sears October, September, August, and having those reference points on your chart. And having those levels transposed into your lower timeframes, |
| 11 | 00:02:34,920 --> 00:02:44,160 | they'll bring a great deal clarity. Now you may have a few overlapping levels like this chart we have a couple of different opens and closes or will close in |
| 12 | 00:02:44,250 --> 00:03:02,490 | proximity. That's okay. But I want you to find the most recent down candle that would be this one here you go. And then prior to this down candle, what up |
| 13 | 00:03:02,490 --> 00:03:17,610 | candle exists above it. So in other words, if this is the down candle, you got to go above its high. So it's high is going to show up. Okay, the highest 3144 |
| 14 | 00:03:17,610 --> 00:03:30,960 | So we had to have an up candle or a closed candle that has at least a low that's higher than 3144 Obviously, |
| 15 | 00:03:31,050 --> 00:03:31,680 | it's right here |
| 16 | 00:03:37,980 --> 00:03:51,210 | just a quick we've delineated a range on the monthly chart now by itself you've done a great deal already. But I know you don't believe it, you have to see it |
| 17 | 00:03:51,210 --> 00:04:00,000 | that need to have faith in it. So what we defined is the range in which we're going to trade in if I take these two reference points and I'm dropping down |
| 18 | 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:00,990 | into a weekly chart |
| 19 | 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:18,780 | Okay, by having a weekly chart, we can have a lot more information refined and that's Delenn delineate this month here with the vertical line on the month |
| 20 | 00:04:18,780 --> 00:04:34,050 | prior to it so now we have a down candle to the right of this vertical red line so we're looking at June This is June having a down close so we go into a daily |
| 21 | 00:04:34,050 --> 00:04:47,370 | chart onto our weekly chart okay. We have priced on a long term consolidation, many weeks gone by here and these two down candles here price trades through it |
| 22 | 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:58,320 | on this candle here. So now we have activated to to down candles as a bullish order block. When we have upside movement here. It violates the two down |
| 23 | 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:14,100 | candles. So now we can see See price return back down into it that would be a bullish scenario and it's also that the monthly candle at 130 7130 at all is |
| 24 | 00:05:14,100 --> 00:05:32,130 | rounded to 130 at close enough for government work price drops down into that couple different times and you see prices expanded now the upside is still that |
| 25 | 00:05:32,130 --> 00:05:45,540 | monthly bearish order block it's also to beginning of the last three candles that were up it's the same as up candles low you can see price and you can |
| 26 | 00:05:45,540 --> 00:05:55,530 | probably already visualize it reaching for this probably going into next week or the week after we'll probably see see more consider continuation on the upside |
| 27 | 00:05:58,890 --> 00:06:00,570 | we go into a daily chart |
| 28 | 00:06:14,639 --> 00:06:23,009 | okay, you can see the vertical lines delineate each month see |
| 29 | 00:06:29,639 --> 00:06:48,479 | price dipping down into that monthly open that we round it up to 130 at price response aggressively off of that and then we have the beginning of this decline |
| 30 | 00:06:48,479 --> 00:07:05,519 | here in October. And this is the reason why it sounds like kind sight if you're watching this without having the benefit of being a part of the live sessions |
| 31 | 00:07:05,519 --> 00:07:15,239 | and watching the recordings over the last last week, but we looked at 132 ad as a downside objective. And the reason why that was objective was based on these |
| 32 | 00:07:15,239 --> 00:07:23,789 | two down candles here and the fact that we are looking for higher prices relative to what's been shown on the monthly |
| 33 | 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:42,060 | Okay, so we see price retreating back into this down candle multiple times right here on this one and then ultimately retreating down into the higher level 3280 |
| 34 | 00:07:42,060 --> 00:08:05,700 | Level right here you can see price expand the only upside so we're looking for 138 big figure and potentially higher than that. Take away is this if you look |
| 35 | 00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:18,360 | at your monthly charts okay, and you define where you're at presently in the range. All you have to do is find the most recent down candle and the most |
| 36 | 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:28,860 | recent up candle and there's your range. If you get the market trade above a down candle, you wait for a return back to that down candle to trade up into the |
| 37 | 00:08:28,860 --> 00:08:40,200 | last up candle. If you have a market trade up into a up candle you find the last down candle or most recent down candle which will be over here, there'll be |
| 38 | 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:54,510 | arrange for the downside. So we have still have upside still to go for dollar CAD on a monthly basis. Let's look at this same example of study on a US |
| 39 | 00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:55,680 | Japanese yen pair |
| 40 | 00:09:07,290 --> 00:09:12,180 | Okay, we have the most recent down candle here |
| 41 | 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:34,830 | and prior to this down candle, you have to have a candle it's higher than the candles high which is 104 35 so above here to the left worst of candle it's here |
| 42 | 00:09:39,660 --> 00:09:53,070 | it's your range. So between 106 28 and one of the 326 so basically 300 pips the idea as soon as this candle trades above the down candles high, this down candle |
| 43 | 00:09:53,070 --> 00:10:00,990 | becomes a bullish order block. So it can be a buyer at one of the 326 or less. We drop into a weekly chart |
| 44 | 00:10:06,029 --> 00:10:31,919 | is price trading below one to 326 and again here on the US election trend down into the bullish order block here we go into daily chart can see the body of |
| 45 | 00:10:31,919 --> 00:10:50,039 | this down candle it's larger than this one here. So this is the beginning in the bullish order block chair and mean threshold of this down candle would be about |
| 46 | 00:10:50,039 --> 00:11:03,059 | right here and it's not even challenged at all here even on the election a knee jerk reaction so price dips down into it here this will be a buy it starts to |
| 47 | 00:11:03,059 --> 00:11:16,919 | rally away then the next candle opens on the election trades down into previous bullish order block this will be another buy and rallying away we have old highs |
| 48 | 00:11:16,919 --> 00:11:30,029 | back here and we have equal highs back here on the monthly chart this is the objective we will be reaching up to and we've already seen that happen with 300 |
| 49 | 00:11:30,029 --> 00:11:40,409 | pips plus to use Kiwi dollar monthly |
| 50 | 00:11:47,130 --> 00:12:09,540 | okay so we have last down candle here and the most recent up candle here okay and we've moved away from the last up candle exercise in this as a bearish order |
| 51 | 00:12:09,540 --> 00:12:22,860 | block we go down to a weekly okay see price trading up into bearish order block it does trade through the body this candle looks rather sloppy right now the |
| 52 | 00:12:22,860 --> 00:12:39,000 | downside objective is 6983 so 695 that buys these candles here close comes in at 7005 So that would probably be where I would be looking to cover about 120 pips |
| 53 | 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:49,770 | or so still potential downside objective personally alongside me I think it's going to come down here to 67 ad |
| 54 | 00:12:56,700 --> 00:13:15,120 | in our daily timeframe see price has in fact already moved a good distance now this is the bearish order block up in here. So anything above that price it had |
| 55 | 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:33,060 | reached up into we can refine that into a lower level timeframe. Bearish order block see a trading and here minimum expectation is to trade down to here. The |
| 56 | 00:13:33,060 --> 00:13:34,350 | next one would be down here |
| 57 | 00:13:39,630 --> 00:13:54,420 | do you want to reach for that and then below these lows. Okay, so we're using the monthly chart to give us our bullish and bearish order blocks and define our |
| 58 | 00:13:54,420 --> 00:14:04,050 | range. And then we look for lower timeframes to get closer to the market and refine our risk. Use the higher timeframe monthly chart, find the most recent up |
| 59 | 00:14:04,050 --> 00:14:16,680 | candle and most recent down candle. There's your range define that range in terms of where the most recent order flow has sent price was it violating a down |
| 60 | 00:14:16,680 --> 00:14:32,190 | close or down candle which gives permission to become a bullish order block or has price broken an up candle by violating its low which then activates that as |
| 61 | 00:14:32,190 --> 00:14:41,790 | a bearish order block. You just simply look for the the contrarian order block on the monthly chart. And you take those levels and you find them down into a |
| 62 | 00:14:41,790 --> 00:14:51,540 | weekly into a daily in down to an hourly chart and you can see there's a plethora of opportunities to study with all these different pairs. And it gives |
| 63 | 00:14:51,540 --> 00:15:00,720 | you a context to actually look into the marketplace with a specific mindset. Not just waiting for a neon sign to jump off at you and saying okay, What I want to |
| 64 | 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:10,140 | ask you to do today you'll know what levels of trade off of relative to the monthly chart and it's basically a top down approach didn't lead you right into |
| 65 | 00:15:10,230 --> 00:15:12,510 | trade setups that you otherwise wouldn't know they were there |