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114-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 12 - Short Term Top Down Analysis

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-11-01 04:16
1 00:00:10,019 --> 00:00:22,259 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back to lesson three, for the August 2017, ICT mentorship content, this is short term top down analysis. And it's daily, the
2 00:00:22,259 --> 00:00:22,859 four hour.
3 00:00:29,670 --> 00:00:40,770 Okay, before I begin, just remind you that of all the concepts I've taught you all the varying possibilities that you can use the information, this is my
4 00:00:40,830 --> 00:00:53,580 specific approach to it. So know that going in. This is not in press upon you that you only can do it this way. It is this is how I use the information. I've
5 00:00:53,580 --> 00:01:03,840 gone through all this information myself over the last 20 plus years. And this is my personal approach to doing so. So as my trading plan, if you will, this is
6 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:15,240 it. This is how I operate. And I've used everything I've done in the monthly and weekly presentation, the two lessons before this one. That is all the work I do,
7 00:01:15,810 --> 00:01:25,680 I don't do anything additional to that, once I arrive at my higher timeframe, by relative to those first two teachings. What you're about to see here is all I
8 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:38,040 do. And these next two lessons, this one in the fall of one after this for intraday top down. I don't want you to breeze through it, expecting some magic
9 00:01:38,700 --> 00:01:49,980 picture or magic formula, okay, it's this my unique approach to doing it using all the information. I'm not applying every possible scenario, I'm looking for
10 00:01:50,010 --> 00:02:00,270 conditions. And looking for a stage I'm looking to execute in that stage. So of course, I'm looking for a condition or bias long term, I'm looking for a stage
11 00:02:00,270 --> 00:02:07,470 or a setup that I look for all the time, it doesn't deviate doesn't move all around that and change and morph one day I'm doing this and one day I'm doing
12 00:02:07,470 --> 00:02:17,610 that. And then once I know that, then I go into a lower timeframe and execute with that similar pattern in mind. So everything is fractal. So again, please
13 00:02:17,610 --> 00:02:27,090 don't take this information that you have to only do it this way. It's just meant to provide you what I promised, this is exactly how I interpret price. And
14 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:35,940 how I am able to call the markets when I'm accurate. This is how I'm doing it. Now, I'm always unsure just like anybody else about what the outcomes going to
15 00:02:35,940 --> 00:02:44,730 be. And you've been with me for more than 12 months on a daily daily basis now. And if I force myself to beat every single trading day, in front of the charts
16 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:54,240 with you or by myself, even I'm not accurate, I have to be selective on what I'm looking for. And hopefully you've learned actually, at the end of all this
17 00:02:54,570 --> 00:03:03,240 teaching, that there's a specific time window that you want to be focusing on trading and speculating only window of opportunity, not trying to do every
18 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:10,560 single trading day. That's what retail does. And Smart Money doesn't do that. Just look at long term timeframe. And you'll see that they're not always in
19 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:20,730 their busy bodying to taking the trades every single day. They're waiting for specific setups, conditions and levels of debt already pre determined and
20 00:03:20,730 --> 00:03:31,710 arrived at for fair value. So the focus of this presentation is determine the impact of the daily perspective on a given asset or market. Identify the
21 00:03:31,710 --> 00:03:41,220 directional bias with a higher timeframe daily chart, classify the PD arrays accurately to assist in key levels and complete an institutional analysis only
22 00:03:41,220 --> 00:03:42,090 daily basis.
23 00:03:49,020 --> 00:03:57,390 Okay, so once I go into the daily timeframe, the first thing I'm starting to concern myself is what's the smart money doing? And because all the assets are
24 00:03:57,390 --> 00:04:06,630 trade, they all can be looked upon in the form of CBOT. Whether you're on trading the s&p which I no longer do anymore, but you've learned about it this
25 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:14,880 mentorship, you can pull up the co2 data and pull out the last 12 months and look at their highest high and this lowest low in terms of their net holding
26 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:23,610 position. And we can get a depiction of whether they're hedging buying and selling. And it's more of an intermediate to short term basis on using co2 data.
27 00:04:24,030 --> 00:04:33,570 So I start my perspective from the daily timeframe zoning in on what the commercial traders are dealing with large commercial hedgers for the market on
28 00:04:33,570 --> 00:04:41,760 trading. So if it's the bond market, I'm gonna be looking at the CBOT data for the 30 year treasury bond and get the highest high and the lowest low in terms
29 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:52,440 of the range of their net position. Now, it may be a time when it's above the zero line like everyone else usually uses that CO T graph. It doesn't make a
30 00:04:52,440 --> 00:05:03,720 difference to me. I create my own zero line like getting the 12 month high and low, the highest high and the Lows low their net positions and divide that in
31 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:15,690 half and that gives me my new range and above it is bullshit and below it is bearish. Now again, before we go any further, it's important that all monthly
32 00:05:15,690 --> 00:05:27,660 and weekly analysis is carried over into the daily timeframe. That's what lends us to believe there's going to be a bullish or bearish bias. Preferably the
33 00:05:27,660 --> 00:05:40,110 daily should confirm it. Next thing I look at is open interest. And again, if I'm looking at the s&p or if I'm looking at the bond market, or currencies, or
34 00:05:40,110 --> 00:05:49,890 Forex, I'm gonna go back to the original contract traded in the currency futures contract only refer to the open interest. I want the insights gleaned by open
35 00:05:49,890 --> 00:06:01,710 interest to either support or negate my trade. Next thing I consider is institutional order flow on a daily timeframe. So I want to know what the
36 00:06:01,710 --> 00:06:09,690 institutions are doing in my scene sponsorship and price action. If I'm not, it's probably going to be a low probability setup, or I'm probably going to lose
37 00:06:09,690 --> 00:06:21,480 money how to trade. So ideally, I want to see institutional sponsorship behind price action, and it's seen by institutional order flow. The next thing I do is
38 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:31,380 I want to try to determine what weekly profile is most likely going to unfold. And I use the economic calendar to heart start framing this. And if I can't
39 00:06:31,650 --> 00:06:43,140 arrive at that, I go with my best assumptions. And if I'm wrong, I refer to the economic calendar later in the week to correct my assumptions. And there may be
40 00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:54,060 a weekly profile that works the later half of the week versus the Monday Tuesday Wednesday phenomena I like to work for for one shot, one kill. Okay, then I'll
41 00:06:54,060 --> 00:07:02,280 start looking for inter market analysis. And I'll start looking at the relationships to correlate a pairs or correlated assets. So I'm looking for s&p
42 00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:10,830 divergence, dollar making higher high Euro failing, make a lower low that type of thing. In in the daily going into the four hour, now it starts to mean
43 00:07:10,830 --> 00:07:24,090 something. And you can get really dynamic confirmations to trade ideas by starting to use SMT from the daily down into the four hour. Next day, I'm
44 00:07:24,090 --> 00:07:35,340 looking for market structure. And now to start incorporating heavier use of breakers and mitigation blocks. And I'm gonna be looking at overall bullish
45 00:07:35,340 --> 00:07:43,020 market structures and bearish market structures and maintaining that overall institutional order flow, while we're creating a larger degree of market
46 00:07:43,020 --> 00:08:00,450 structure swings. I mean, looking at the pdra matrix, again, defining the PDA arrays from premium to discount. Using those levels, I'm going to calibrate to
47 00:08:00,450 --> 00:08:03,960 get my key price levels that look for a trade setup or entry.
48 00:08:06,930 --> 00:08:16,770 And by doing so I ended up at with a daily bias. So at this point, my daily bias is defined. So going through all these steps, leads me to whether I'm going to
49 00:08:16,770 --> 00:08:27,330 be a buyer or seller. And going through this yourself, you'll see that it's going to put you in sync with the most likely large price range expansion,
50 00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:33,750 you're not going to get every move every single day isn't going to be up when it's bullish. And every single day is going to be down when it's bearish. But
51 00:08:33,750 --> 00:08:43,290 we're focusing on where time and price meet. When economic drivers come out help form that weekly profile that we're expecting, it may be a Monday low of the
52 00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:52,830 week, or it may be a Tuesday in classic low the week, work could be a Wednesday low of the week or Tuesday, fall short of a bi level we're waiting for but
53 00:08:52,830 --> 00:09:00,240 starts to rally and trips us up and then trades lower again into Wednesday creating a lower low and that becomes a low of the week when it's bullish. So
54 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:09,000 it's a lot of things you get to weigh out. And once we arrive at all these components, we will eventually lead to a specific daily bias and it'll be
55 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:18,720 defined from that higher timeframe banking timeframe where the bank has been spent most time looking at, it's the daily chart. So you want to transpose all
56 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:31,980 these ideas and analysis and levels over to our four hour chart. Okay, so again, I'll begin with commercial hedging. So in the process of developing an opinion
57 00:09:31,980 --> 00:09:38,790 of smart money in their in their respective actions in the market, I refer to the last 12 months of the commercial hedgers Commitment of Traders, net
58 00:09:38,850 --> 00:09:48,930 holdings. Or if that range is very narrow your paint discern from looking at 12 months, I'll go down to six months and they'll give me a quarterly to quarterly
59 00:09:48,990 --> 00:09:58,320 Effect Rack and see the other range. They are working with them but usually I'm going to adopt the 12 month range. So whatever today is I go back 12 months from
60 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:05,670 that day and it's all Ways wherever you're looking at the price right now, go back 12 months and you get a dynamic perspective on where they're at in terms of
61 00:10:05,670 --> 00:10:14,280 their hedging. Now, what I do is I determine the highest and the lowest readings in the CBOT line chart for the commercials, not anything else, but just
62 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:25,470 commercials not the large speculators, just the commercial hedgers. And then I Visually divide that range in half, I consider the net position bullish if above
63 00:10:25,500 --> 00:10:34,080 halfway mark of the 12 month range and bearish if we're below the halfway mark of the 12 month range. So if I'm below it, I'm gonna be focusing on discount
64 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:44,310 arrays and looking for scenarios where the market should expand to the upside reaching for some measure of a premium. Next thing I do is I look for open
65 00:10:44,310 --> 00:10:51,600 interest. Now prior to getting to the Daily, I'm not really concerned about when when you can start looking at it in a weekly, and I used to do that when I was
66 00:10:51,600 --> 00:11:00,120 younger and get really obsessed about it. But really until I get down to the daily on that we're concerned about open interest. So once my analysis takes me
67 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:09,180 into that timeframe, I consider the use of it. So I want to see open interest decline about 15% or more when price is trading at a higher timeframe discount
68 00:11:09,180 --> 00:11:17,730 rate. This is extremely bullish, especially when the monthly weekly are bullish as well, I want to see open interest increase about 15% or more when price is
69 00:11:17,730 --> 00:11:25,620 trading at a higher timeframe premium array. And if this occurs, this is extremely bearish. More so if the monthly and weekly are calling for lower
70 00:11:25,620 --> 00:11:35,160 prices as well. Now in between either of the above conditions, for my personal style trading, open interest is not considered in my analysis. So it either has
71 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:45,840 to meet one of these two criterias or I'm not going to refer to it at all. Okay, institutional order flow. Now when the monthly and or weekly timeframe is
72 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:54,750 bearish. I want to see the daily finding resistance at up close candles on a daily and breaking through down close candles on the daily. This is extremely
73 00:11:54,750 --> 00:12:04,980 bearish, that's going to show us institutions are in control on the sell side or the buy side relative to those conditions. When the monthly and or weekly
74 00:12:05,010 --> 00:12:14,100 timeframe is bullish, I want to see the daily finding support at down close daily candles and breaking through up close daily candles. This is extremely
75 00:12:14,100 --> 00:12:23,460 bullish. The daily order flow is the most important one to know, if you don't look at any other timeframe, and you just simply want to disregard weekly and
76 00:12:23,460 --> 00:12:31,320 monthly. Not that I would advise doing that. But I know a lot of you just for whatever reason don't want to look at these higher timeframe charts. But if you
77 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:38,640 do not look at them or refer to them, at least study them from an institutional standpoint, you're really shortchanging yourself in your analysis increase too
78 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:47,280 myopic have a view. But you have to at least start on the daily if you're not going to go any higher at least start all of your analysis on a daily chart.
79 00:12:47,670 --> 00:12:55,920 Because if you don't know what the daily charts implying, in terms of institutional bullish or bearish that you're playing with Russian Roulette, you
80 00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:03,840 don't know really what's going to happen on the lower timeframes. And what may look like bullishness on a four hour one hour or less, may actually just be a
81 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,570 setup that gets you short from daily perspective.
82 00:13:06,900 --> 00:13:17,640 So it's very important that we follow what the institutions are doing from a daily chart. Hopefully the monthly and weekly are in agreement. Weekly profile
83 00:13:18,810 --> 00:13:26,220 when the monthly, weekly or just the daily timeframe, if I can't get a clue as to what monthly weekly are doing. Maybe they're in consolidation, maybe they're
84 00:13:26,220 --> 00:13:35,370 neutral. Maybe they're conflicted. Okay, maybe the monthly is expecting lower and weekly is not doing anything that would indicate continuation of that or
85 00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:45,750 hasn't retraced enough to get in suit with it. So again, starting with just a daily timeframe. If it's calling for a bearish market, I started looking for
86 00:13:45,750 --> 00:13:53,220 scenarios that might produce specific bearish weekly profiles. Now when the monthly and weekly are just gorgeous, the daily timeframe suggests the market is
87 00:13:53,220 --> 00:14:01,080 bullish, I started looking for scenarios that might produce specific bullish weekly profiles. Now keep in mind the weekly range typically formed between
88 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:08,730 Tuesday and Thursday. That's the bulk of the weekly range. There could be a load of forms on Monday and it could dilly dally around on Tuesday and then take off
89 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:15,750 going through the second portion of Tuesday. All of Wednesday in the first half of Thursday, Korean high the week and then Friday could be just retracement.
90 00:14:16,050 --> 00:14:25,440 That's how I internalized the weekly range when it's bullish. When it's bearish, I internalized the Tuesday, creating the high of the week and Thursdays, New
91 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:34,620 York open creating the low of the week and Friday and Monday being just consolidation portions or near the open of a power three type scenario and
92 00:14:34,620 --> 00:14:44,130 Friday being close for power three for the weekly range isn't always the case. But that's how I adopt all of my bullish or bearish scenarios and I start there,
93 00:14:44,460 --> 00:14:57,630 I start looking for the weekly profiles to fit that way. Unfortunately, only asset to us in terms of forecasting weekly profiles is the calendar. So using
94 00:14:57,630 --> 00:15:06,390 the calendar and looking for specific drivers that Going to assist you. But there's no cookie cutter one fits all approach here, you can't do it, where it
95 00:15:07,020 --> 00:15:14,610 only does it this way and can't do it another way. If it was, believe me, I would love to show you and I would be able to show it off and be on the internet
96 00:15:14,610 --> 00:15:25,470 every day doing it, but I can't. Okay, so the limitation is, we can only do the analysis during the weekend before the market starts. And then on Sunday, see
97 00:15:25,470 --> 00:15:33,930 where we open and then watch what trades on Monday. So that's why I like to sit on my hands. Usually in the mentorship I've been active in Mondays sometimes are
98 00:15:33,930 --> 00:15:41,340 watching the market more closely than I would normally if I was just trading my own money and not being in front of anyone. But I'd like to see what Monday
99 00:15:41,340 --> 00:15:49,020 does, I'm willing to give up that Monday low of the week, because if it's going to go higher, generally Tuesday is going to give me an optimal trade entry based
100 00:15:49,020 --> 00:15:56,430 on Monday's low. And then I can get in if not Wednesday, we'll do it all for Tuesday's low. So I'm not really concerned about getting the lowest low, I just
101 00:15:56,430 --> 00:16:06,060 want to get in the meat of that Tuesday to Thursday portion. So that's that's like the bulk of what I'm aiming for. And if I can get Tuesday's action into
102 00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:16,470 Thursday's New York open, then I got it. That's all I'm looking for. And it doesn't always unfold like that, obviously. But for more on weekly profiles, I'm
103 00:16:16,500 --> 00:16:23,490 going to counsel you to go back to marches content for details about what weekly profiles exist. And by looking at the economic calendar, and I'll give you the
104 00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:32,790 details in there and which market profile for the weekly profile rather, will unfold or likely unfold, you use the economic calendar and the institutional
105 00:16:32,790 --> 00:16:41,610 order flow from the monthly and the weekly. And now this daily stuff to get in sync with what may unfold for weekly profile. And again, you're never going to
106 00:16:41,610 --> 00:16:50,220 dial in and get it accurately every single week. It doesn't, it doesn't work like that. But if we can get very close to what may unfold, and focus around the
107 00:16:50,220 --> 00:16:59,100 economic calendars, drivers for liquidity runs, all those manipulations if we can get in sync with that, we can anticipate a specific type of phenomenon
108 00:16:59,130 --> 00:17:09,780 occur. And as long as it's in sync with our higher timeframe, condition or bearish or bullish bias, the setups or stage four entries will be a lot easier
109 00:17:09,780 --> 00:17:16,380 to anticipate using the economic calendar and forecasting the weekly profile. Don't expect precision to that degree.
110 00:17:16,590 --> 00:17:24,420 I don't know how to get weekly profiles called every single week, I have a rough idea what may unfold relative to what the economic calendar is. So on the
111 00:17:24,420 --> 00:17:33,510 weekend before the market even opens up, you see me do usually one day at a time, the morning of or the day of our analysis. You don't want to do that. You
112 00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:41,700 want to start in the weekend like today at the time of this recording. It's a Saturday. So what I would like to sit down and do is look at the economic
113 00:17:41,700 --> 00:17:50,400 calendar for the entire week. And see where the drivers are for the week in terms of what session, whether it be London or New York, and what day of the
114 00:17:50,400 --> 00:18:00,360 week and see what type of phenomenon may unfold relative to the premium race and discount of race. It's in the marketplace right now, if I'm bearish. And I think
115 00:18:00,360 --> 00:18:09,450 that there's going to be a slow start to the week because the economic calendar is rather quiet until around Tuesday, New York open well guess what we may end
116 00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:18,540 up seeing a market reversal in the New York open that particular day and starts the weekly range. So it's a lot of scenarios that you have to play around with
117 00:18:18,540 --> 00:18:28,440 and I don't have and I've never been able to create a systematic approach for forecasting weekly profiles. I just know once the week starts and I got usually
118 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:38,160 Monday behind me, I got about a 60% likelihood that I'll be able to determine if I had the higher timeframe right. What the weekly profile is going to be the
119 00:18:38,250 --> 00:18:48,660 increases if I'm wrong on Tuesday, because then I know pretty much it goes into the 70% likelihood and 70% with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is trading left
120 00:18:48,660 --> 00:18:56,880 and then week. I can usually find something before the Friday shows. It may not be the whole one shot one kill I was looking for but I can do a day trade or I
121 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:06,090 can scout the rest of the weekly range and get you know whatever I'm looking for for weekly objective. But the main thing I'd like to focus in on is that weekly
122 00:19:06,090 --> 00:19:18,180 opening the weekly opening price on Sunday. I start there, but I also look at the midnight opening price on Monday. And I take that Monday, Midnight open and
123 00:19:18,180 --> 00:19:28,650 I take that opening price and I take it across the entire weekly, every day. All throughout the entire week. I'm looking at what we're doing relative to the
124 00:19:28,650 --> 00:19:40,080 opening price. Monday midnight New York time. So I'm disregarding the entire first portion of the trading that starts on Sunday. And I'm looking at exactly
125 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:50,910 when Monday begins in the States. The US at midnight that opening price. I use that also for power three as well. So I use Sunday's opening price. That's our
126 00:19:50,910 --> 00:20:04,080 natural opening to Forex. And or I use the Monday opening price at midnight. So the opening price at midnight. A Monday, New York time, I use that for a weekly
127 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:10,650 opening price as well. And I want to see what price does across the week relative to that opening price. So I have two opening prices that I'm looking
128 00:20:10,650 --> 00:20:22,950 at, for the weekly profile, a weekly range, the standard natural Sundays opening price. And then I have midnight opening on Monday. So it's midnight, in Monday
129 00:20:22,950 --> 00:20:34,770 morning in New York time. Soon as that price is printed, I take that, and I see if we can trade above it, or below it for the weekly range. And also look for
130 00:20:34,770 --> 00:20:46,170 the same thing for the Sunday. So Sunday's opening or Monday, Midnight opening price, New York time, I want to see if I'm bullish. Preferably I want to see
131 00:20:46,170 --> 00:20:56,610 price, go down below those prices, and seek some kind of a discount Ray. Or if I'm bearish relative to our timeframe monthly and weekly. If I'm expecting lower
132 00:20:56,610 --> 00:21:06,150 prices, I want to see price trade up above both of those prices, or at least one of them that makes sense in terms of discount to premium. So if it gets up to a
133 00:21:06,150 --> 00:21:15,570 premium array, above that opening price, relative to some these natural opening or midnight, in New York, Monday morning, wherever that opening price is
134 00:21:15,630 --> 00:21:24,720 printed, then easiest way to do it is get an hourly chart open. And whatever the opening price is on the hourly at midnight, Monday, for whatever pair or market
135 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:35,100 you're looking at, that's the opening price I use for the weekly. Okay, and then I look for SMT divergence. And I start using inter market analysis as I
136 00:21:35,100 --> 00:21:43,920 explained in previous first two lessons here for this month, but I'm really specifically looking for SMT divergence to confirm an opinion I have on price.
137 00:21:44,340 --> 00:21:54,480 Now if I'm bullish, obviously, the cable and I want to be seeing either high or low when the dollar makes a higher high, or I want to see a failed higher high
138 00:21:54,480 --> 00:22:05,700 and $1. When the cable has made a lower low that could be a liquidity run for sell stops, and then turtle soup long. So I'm looking for SMT divergence at this
139 00:22:05,700 --> 00:22:11,670 point from daily going into the four hour because I think that's where the heart of its effectiveness exists.
140 00:22:14,610 --> 00:22:23,220 Okay, then I define the current market structure again, like I've mentioned in the first two lessons, but I'm looking for breakers on a daily timeframe more
141 00:22:23,220 --> 00:22:32,310 than any other. Because knowing this and where they exist in price action on a daily, they can alert you to where the next intermediate term price swings going
142 00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:41,190 to form. So if you go through price action, and you look at how price trades from bullish breaker to bearish breaker, there's a lot of movement generally
143 00:22:41,190 --> 00:22:49,080 between those two reference points. It's the meat in the middle, that's where the the bulk of the trading opportunities exist. You don't have to get the
144 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:58,200 highest high right before bearish breaker forms. You may not get those types of trades right now, but focusing on the daily bullish and bearish breakers and
145 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:06,810 trade in between those two price points. And what you'll end up seeing is it's very easy to find setups in net because it's directionally based. It's slanted
146 00:23:06,810 --> 00:23:14,160 on one side of the marketplace, it's usually one way flows. And it's easy to wait for power three scenarios like when you're bearish, look for the open,
147 00:23:14,550 --> 00:23:23,970 rally up for Judas swings, sell short in London, and expansion down into New York in London close rehearse if it's been trading off of a bullish breaker on
148 00:23:23,970 --> 00:23:33,540 the daily. And we can start seeing that the daily timeframe see an open trade down in London for Judas swing, and then rally up going into New York close or
149 00:23:33,540 --> 00:23:41,790 London close for the day. So it gives us a lot of context if you operate just in news parameters. Now obviously, there's a lot of other trades you can take. But
150 00:23:41,820 --> 00:23:49,230 for training wheels purposes only. If you start there looking at your conditions like that, you'll see that you're trading many times in the right side of the
151 00:23:49,230 --> 00:24:01,950 institutional order flow. Then I go through the daily and work my way through the four hour doing the PD array matrix out note all the discount and premium
152 00:24:01,950 --> 00:24:12,690 arrays. And again, not every single array is going to exist, you may not get a fair value gap or liquidity void, there may not be a mitigation block, but the
153 00:24:12,690 --> 00:24:21,600 ones that are there, you highlight them, okay, because when price meets that, and also we start looking at other things in the next lesson for deviations, you
154 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:28,470 get a confluence of different things that you can take trades on. But we have to know what the premium and discount rates are. Otherwise, you're not gonna be
155 00:24:28,470 --> 00:24:39,780 able to calibrate your key levels for where the trades actually reach for for entry, or exits. And then finally, obviously, if we've already gone through the
156 00:24:39,780 --> 00:24:48,030 work of doing a pdra matrix, knowing what's above us in terms of where price may reach and what's below us in terms of where pricing we reach, we calibrate those
157 00:24:48,030 --> 00:24:57,270 levels to the nearest 10 or nearest five level. And I've already went through this slide many times already in the two previous teaching so I'm not going to
158 00:24:57,510 --> 00:25:08,340 belabor you with it. The long and short of it is As you want to calibrate those levels around the PD arrays in terms of premium and discount. Now you're going
159 00:25:08,340 --> 00:25:18,090 to end with will arrive at your daily bias. I get question a lot, how do you know what the daily bias is going to be? I think what the natural assumption is,
160 00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:27,300 when I say the daily bias, when I know what the daily bias is, based on my analysis, everyone, especially those that are outside our mentorship group, they
161 00:25:27,300 --> 00:25:31,980 assume that if I'm bullish, I'm buying every single day. And that's where retail thinking comes in.
162 00:25:33,420 --> 00:25:42,600 If we're bullish on a market doesn't mean that we buy every single day, it has to come to some measure of a discount array at a specific time of day. It has to
163 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:52,650 do this many times. With the manipulation aspect by economic calendar. It doesn't need to, but it's usually better if it does so. So now if we have
164 00:25:52,680 --> 00:26:01,590 blended all the elements that we've learned so far, up to this point, all the way through the mentorship to now. Okay, you will know how to find and determine
165 00:26:01,590 --> 00:26:08,820 the daily bias. And again, just because we're bullish doesn't mean we're buying every day. And just because we're bearish, we don't sell every day, we are still
166 00:26:08,820 --> 00:26:17,760 waiting for conditions to meet that expectation. If we're bullish, we're waiting for discounted rates to be traded to an end execution, we go long, when we're
167 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:25,710 bearish, we wait for premium erased to be tagged during a specific time of the day. So we have time and price meeting. And when that happens, boom, we execute.
168 00:26:26,550 --> 00:26:34,980 So after referring to commercial hedging considerations, and referring to open interest, determining institutional order flow on a daily going into the four
169 00:26:34,980 --> 00:26:44,040 hour, anticipating specific weekly profiles. And again, I'm gonna count you to go back to marches content to help you arrive at what those profiles
170 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:52,620 specifically are, because there's so many variables, I could literally make this volume or this introduction to moving daily into the four hour, I can make a six
171 00:26:52,620 --> 00:27:01,290 to seven hour video. And it would inundate you with more information that's really necessary, because all of this has to be learned by you going in and
172 00:27:01,290 --> 00:27:10,050 looking for it. But use the information I provided in the March content, where I taught weekly profiles. And you'll know what the parameters are based on all the
173 00:27:10,050 --> 00:27:21,150 things you've learned so far, confirm the analysis with market correlation and inter market analysis, specifically looking for s&p Divergence now selecting a
174 00:27:21,150 --> 00:27:29,520 portion of Market structure to frame a trade in, so I'm looking at where we are in terms of the range. And I defined a PDE arrays inside that range to arrive at
175 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:38,610 key levels. And once I've done this, what I ultimately have arrived at is a directional based analysis on a daily timeframe. And then I take that and I
176 00:27:38,610 --> 00:27:49,320 transpose that to the four hour chart. So now, I have not provided you any charts, I've not given you any kind of hand holding here. And the reason why
177 00:27:49,350 --> 00:27:57,570 I've said this from the beginning, that PDFs are not going to do anything for anyone that hasn't gone through every single month of the content. You got to go
178 00:27:57,570 --> 00:28:05,280 through each individual study, you got to go through each individual presentation and learn and study it. Now already know what's going to happen.
179 00:28:06,030 --> 00:28:16,050 Right now, if I were not continue and give you the next lesson. And I said, Okay, here's the here's the thread, in our forum, start asking me questions for
180 00:28:16,050 --> 00:28:23,850 things that you're stuck on, you're going to ask me, Can you have a one on one session with me? Can you help me do this, I'm still unsure about this, and I'm
181 00:28:23,850 --> 00:28:31,470 gonna show you no reason why you're doing that. It's because you want me to take you by the hand and literally take you to the point of understanding what I
182 00:28:31,470 --> 00:28:44,310 can't do. Without you doing all this type of analysis, religiously. That's the only way you're gonna get it. And that's why it's expensive, it takes time. Now,
183 00:28:44,310 --> 00:28:52,950 in the next lesson, I'm actually gonna give you my pet trading patterns, this is exactly what I trade, I don't do anything else. There's a lot of other ways to
184 00:28:52,950 --> 00:29:04,200 trade. But I'm gonna tell you exactly what I do when I trade with my money. When I trade with the analysis behind me all those ideas, okay, that I use when I do
185 00:29:06,210 --> 00:29:13,500 detailed analysis, when I think it's going to be a really strong run, if I say this is going to be a low resistance liquidity run. Or if I say this is a high
186 00:29:13,500 --> 00:29:22,770 probability condition, or setup, that's not an invitation for you to put money into it. It's not an invitation for you to mimic me or copy me. But it is a
187 00:29:22,770 --> 00:29:31,560 condition where I have arrived at the highest level of an opinion based on what I've done in terms of my analysis, and I still could be very wrong. And you've
188 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:39,900 seen me do that, you know, because I've been with you every single day. And I've used the expression, a low resistance liquidity run, and I think two or three of
189 00:29:39,900 --> 00:29:47,550 them have not panned out, and that's fine. That's absolutely fine. Because it's going to happen to you as well. You're going to read it wrong or the markets
190 00:29:47,550 --> 00:29:56,400 just simply not going to perform like you expected, or it's going to do nothing. Okay, so you're there's always a green. On the roulette table. We can be betting
191 00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:04,380 on black and red comes up or we can put red and When black, white and green comes up, and there's no way around getting it, okay, you're gonna get, you're
192 00:30:04,380 --> 00:30:16,170 gonna get a law somewhere. And don't be fearful of it long and short. Use these ideas to come down from a top down, using all the information I've taught you
193 00:30:16,170 --> 00:30:23,520 specifically, because every one of these things I've taught in the mentorship in greater detail with more specifics behind it.
194 00:30:24,990 --> 00:30:34,890 If you do not watch the videos that accompany the live sessions, and start blending in some of the things I took in terms of commentary, because I already
195 00:30:34,890 --> 00:30:46,470 know what's going to happen, this is some goober is going to try to play Robin Hood and make this content available to somebody else or the public. And I will
196 00:30:46,470 --> 00:30:57,480 do everything I can to find out who you are. But I have to create the content with that in mind. So it requires a lot of work on your part still, because a
197 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:05,580 PDF file you share like this. Could it be helpful to somebody? Yeah, a little bit, but you're not going to know everything by going through it. Because
198 00:31:05,580 --> 00:31:14,280 there's a lot of things that you need to understand that are conceptually explained. In previous teachings. A lot of it's inside the commentary during
199 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:24,510 live sessions. A lot of you just had an epiphany about market profiles. A lot of you had a discovery about market maker by profiles. And so profiles, just the
200 00:31:24,510 --> 00:31:33,660 week, just this past week, we've done live sessions in I've got about 30 different emails from people that said, I understand how to find market maker by
201 00:31:33,660 --> 00:31:41,790 profiles now. It may click now I finally got it. And I haven't really said anything new. It's just because you've gone through all the mentorship
202 00:31:41,820 --> 00:31:51,450 teachings, and now you're employing the PD arrays. Because that's what I told you. That's the missing element. The thing that nobody understands how to use
203 00:31:51,690 --> 00:32:00,540 with the ICT concepts and in the free tutorials and stuff is to pdra matrix where we are in terms of that premium and discount array, and which levels are
204 00:32:00,540 --> 00:32:08,790 going to be there. Because remember, look at everybody asks the same questions, which order block do I buy? Which 1am I looking at? All that's answered with a
205 00:32:08,790 --> 00:32:18,540 pdra matrix, you have to work with higher timeframe down and in this timeframe on a daily now we're getting to the meat of what the markets most likely going
206 00:32:18,540 --> 00:32:26,370 to do because we have two higher timeframes above us that's going to either support and push price or it's going to change directions and we'll see that
207 00:32:26,370 --> 00:32:32,550 directional change on a daily and four hour. So until the next lesson, I wish you good luck and good trading