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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 16:25
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
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3 ICT: Okay folks, welcome back. This is volume 18 and
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7 continuing series of 20 videos for the initial traders,
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11 optimal trade entry pattern recognition series. Alright, so
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15 our example today is from the treasury bond futures contract
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19 and the delivery contract month is September 2020. This at
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23 the time of this recording June 2 2020. The open interest is
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27 the highest in September contract, even though the nearby
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31 contract is June. So we're electing to follow this month for
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35 treasury bonds. And once you take a look at the daily chart,
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39 notice that we have this high to this low and we had a
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43 retracement in here and on the first of June we had a nice
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47 reaction in here. So is it more likely to take out this
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51 candles high or this candles low? Notice that we have a
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55 turning point here, a lower turning point here. And now we
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59 had a reaction within optimal trade entry. So is it likely
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63 to take the low out or the high out? Not the high, the low.
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67 And we have relative equal lows here as well. So that could
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71 be a potential target. So I'm going to take this off, and
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75 we're going to draw out the low here so when we drop down
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79 into the lower five minute chart, we'll be able to see the
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83 delineation of this particular day's low and it comes in at
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87 177 and 230 seconds. So let's drop down to a five minute
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91 chart. Okay, so here is the five minute chart on the
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95 September contract for the treasury bond market. And you
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99 drill pause your video, study what you think you see here.
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103 Okay, so let's take the annotations in add them to the
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107 chart, New York session. And we have our high to low and
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111 retracement back into optimal trade entry. And this requires
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115 a 62% retracement level entry at 177 and 2030 seconds. So
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119 the entry is our hypothetical 177 and 2030 seconds, it
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123 suffers a draw down now I'm having annotations here not
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127 saying that you would be filled here you will be filled here
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131 on this candle right there, that particular candle and you
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135 have one candle here that goes a little bit against you. But
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139 this all these candles here these it's two ticks, which is
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143 $31 and 25 cents, each contract, or in this case would be
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147 $62 and 50 cents drawl down and using a six tick stop. So
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151 it's six times $31 and 25 cents per contract that you're
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155 trading. And we have relative equal lows here as well and
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159 this heavy line here is the period previous day's low, so
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163 June 1 daily low, you can see that we did create an optimal
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167 trade entry, looking for it to trade down below that. And
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171 ultimately, two standard deviations. That's our day trade
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175 for this model is a total of 29 ticks or $906 and 25 cents.
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179 Now if you'd like to leader in something to see if it's
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183 going to catch a runner, it does in fact go down here and it
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187 actually trades to a point at which for one contract, it was
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191 over 1600 and $50 per contract. So not bad. Really hard to
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195 beat the bond market. It's been tough recently because of
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199 all the consolidation and such but when this market does
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203 move, there is no better market out there. It beats forex,
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207 it beats, index futures, it beats crypto and beats
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211 everything. It's so perfect. It allows very ultra short term
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215 trades to have very tight stops as you can see here in this
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219 case have actually been done with a four tick stop loss and
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223 it would have been fine. So hopefully you found this example
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227 insightful. Until next time, I wish you good luck and good
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231 trading.