Mastering High Probability Scalping Vol 3 of 3.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 13:41
1 00:00:13,410 --> 00:00:23,520 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is the last volume, volume three of mastering high probability scalping. And this is dealing specifically with
2 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,860 previous day bank liquidity runs.
3 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:42,630 Right? For some of you, this is gonna be a little bit of a rehash. But it's necessary. So it is what it is. Whenever I refer to power three, what I'm
4 00:00:42,630 --> 00:00:53,610 referring to is the three components that make up generic price action. That's the accumulation phase, where long or short positions are accumulated, then a
5 00:00:53,610 --> 00:01:06,030 manipulation stage where price goes the opposite direction to what the intended future direction will actually be. And then there's a range expansion. And then
6 00:01:06,210 --> 00:01:07,140 a distribution.
7 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:24,540 Where we use this concept is when the daily bias is bullish. We're gonna be confirming the London session wasn't fact bullish. That means that we see a
8 00:01:24,570 --> 00:01:36,150 measure of bullishness after a attempt to go lower was rejected and price has seen a rally. This would be enough for me, coupled with the daily bias being
9 00:01:36,150 --> 00:01:55,080 bullish. Then you simply wait until 7am New York time to stock your long entry between 7am and 9am New York time typically the setup will form after 7am New
10 00:01:55,080 --> 00:02:08,490 York time you're gonna be waiting for a price retracement lower. New York session will retrace typically from a swing high intraday, that was foreign for
11 00:02:08,490 --> 00:02:30,600 the daily high or a short term high during the London session. Ideally, you want to be selecting retracements of at least 20 pips or lower if no retracement of
12 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:44,430 20 pips forms by 9am walk at means cut, they don't try to take any trades. If you're exceedingly bullish, if you see a retracement of 10 to 15 pips, sometimes
13 00:02:44,430 --> 00:03:02,940 this is enough during this key time of day for a optimal trade entry long. If it does form, enter on the 62% retracement fib as it drops lower. Expect price to
14 00:03:02,940 --> 00:03:13,170 retest the high of the day or the previous day's high. And then look for targets one, two and symmetrical price swing on the fifth.
15 00:03:19,230 --> 00:03:28,980 As you can see, here's an example. And I have a vertical line here. This is Dylan eating seven o'clock in the morning New York time or the beginning of the
16 00:03:28,980 --> 00:03:43,980 new york session. And price creates a bounce in the pre New York session but it's an exceedingly large retracement. And I'll talk more about that when we
17 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:58,050 mentioned how to time or anticipate reversals after 7am which is that vertical line, we have a retracement of 20 pips. Actually it's a little bit more than 20
18 00:03:58,050 --> 00:04:14,310 pips here but this is a really good setup, the price trades down into the optimal trade entry and a beautiful market run. Now looking at power three game
19 00:04:14,310 --> 00:04:23,010 we're looking at the accumulation phase. In this case it'd be the accumulation of short positions and the manipulation phase where price runs up higher during
20 00:04:23,010 --> 00:04:33,600 London, knocking out individuals that would already be short and putting those individuals on the wrong side trying to go long and then a nice move lower if we
21 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:44,370 see this occurring while the same time the daily bias is bearish. This is good. And again to confirm the one in the session being bearish. We want to see price
22 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:57,990 move above the opening price at midnight New York time if that occurs, and price rejects that and goes lower and trades 25 to 30 pips lower at least minimum
23 00:04:59,310 --> 00:05:14,130 forward London session that would indicate at least the expectation that your sessions should present a continuation idea or bearishness. Now, obviously you
24 00:05:14,130 --> 00:05:22,710 want a little bit more movement beyond 30 pips or so for the London session. But nonetheless, you want to see that if you're staying up and you don't want to
25 00:05:22,710 --> 00:05:33,750 trade London teaching primarily the New York session for the scalping model. But if you see the reasons that would justify a bearish London session, that means
26 00:05:33,750 --> 00:05:43,920 again, primarily with an open at night, New York time and attempt to rally and rejecting that and trading significantly off that now again, what's significant
27 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:59,280 30 pips or more, and going into the New York session, I want to I want to dissipate the following criteria. When are we waiting for 7am New York time, the
28 00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:16,980 stock or short position? between 7am and 9am, New York time usually will form after 7am New York time, really waiting for a retracement. Your session will
29 00:06:16,980 --> 00:06:27,600 typically retrace from a swing low now what swing low the swing low that was formed in the London decline the initial decline once it starts to retrace when
30 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:40,740 we look looking for price to move higher ideally we're gonna be selecting retracements of at least 20 pips or more, if it retraces higher if no
31 00:06:40,740 --> 00:06:51,240 retracement of 20 pips forms, by 9am, we're gonna be cutting bait or basically walking and we'll be looking for another opportunity the following day. If it
32 00:06:51,240 --> 00:07:04,170 does form, we're looking to enter at the 62% retracement level as it rallies up again. important that we want to be selling short as price goes higher. We'll be
33 00:07:04,170 --> 00:07:16,140 anticipating and expecting price to retest the low of the day or the previous day's low and or targets one, two and eventually symmetrical price swing on the
34 00:07:16,140 --> 00:07:31,320 fifth. Here's an example here. Again, the vertical line delineates the 7am. marker for the New York session. So immediately after that we're going to be on
35 00:07:31,620 --> 00:07:43,080 watch for a retracement higher of at least 20 pips. Now, again, if you're having very strong convictions about the market being very bearish, you can participate
36 00:07:43,110 --> 00:07:55,980 a optimal trade entry form at 15 pips or so you can get real aggressive if you're on a five minute chart and take 10 PIP retracements if you're extremely
37 00:07:55,980 --> 00:08:03,780 bearish, but that's going to be for folks that have done this for a while and has developed an measurable
38 00:08:06,420 --> 00:08:17,970 amount of experience, I guess, looking for the word that would best suit it, but experience is going to dictate that but to avoid the false setups. It's better
39 00:08:17,970 --> 00:08:31,080 to wait for a least the 20 pips move higher in this case for short for optimal trade entry, but the key is waiting for a 20 PIP rally after 7am New York time
40 00:08:31,350 --> 00:08:40,890 while the New York session is anticipating a continuation lower what we're seeing in London. So onwards if we're looking for bearishness to continue from a
41 00:08:40,890 --> 00:08:51,930 week sell off in overnight trading in London we'll be looking for a retracement at the 7am New York time to get a short term overbought condition and and that's
42 00:08:51,930 --> 00:09:01,500 going to be capitalized on by an optimal trade entry short trading short at 62% retracement level and then looking for the intraday low that was formed to be
43 00:09:01,500 --> 00:09:12,840 retested and or the previous day's low. And then after that we would be looking for, again targets one two and symmetrical price swing on the fib. Now if you
44 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:21,720 don't know what those levels are on your fed, and you're watching this video for the first time and have never seen any of my other work. If you go and look at
45 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:30,780 my YouTube channel, inner circle trader, it will obviously show you a optimal trade entry primer and I'll show you how in that video how to set your Fibonacci
46 00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:33,300 up so you can see the levels I'm referring to
47 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:50,580 when to expect reversals when the hourly or 60 minute chart, trades to an obvious old high or old low has shown a clear willingness to reverse price
48 00:09:50,580 --> 00:10:01,710 before in the past. Okay, when it's obviously seen a reaction that pushes price the opposite direction once it's been traded to it. This is most likely going to
49 00:10:01,710 --> 00:10:10,560 repeat itself. Now, sometimes price will not respect an old, high or low. And these generic support resistance levels will give way. And we never really know
50 00:10:10,560 --> 00:10:22,230 for sure. So I know what you're going to ask me is, how do I know if the old low or high is going to hold price? and cause it to reject and go lower or higher?
51 00:10:22,980 --> 00:10:35,250 And the answer that question is, I don't know that. Think about that, it's probably unsettling. Now, I know, some of you want to have that answer. And I
52 00:10:35,250 --> 00:10:43,110 wasted years believing I would find it. And I found out you don't need to know that. Sometimes you're gonna mess up, sometimes it's gonna be wrong, and
53 00:10:43,110 --> 00:10:50,310 sometimes gonna get stopped out. And it is what it is you cannot escape it, you're going to lose money, you're going to lose on trades, and there's no
54 00:10:50,310 --> 00:11:01,470 reason to worry about it. Now, it's far better to expect them to cause a reaction, then not to. Why because there's plenty of moves. And price swings
55 00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:11,040 between these key timeframes and higher timeframe price points, that you shouldn't have to worry about it. So there's a plethora of setups that will be
56 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:23,550 forming between these 16 minute reversal points are old highs and lows, to not have to worry about it. So here's a little bit of logic for you. If you knew
57 00:11:23,550 --> 00:11:34,950 you're about to take a trade, and it's going to quickly encounter one of these reference points on a 60 minute chart, an old high and old low, where it shown
58 00:11:34,950 --> 00:11:44,550 classic support resistance characteristics. Maybe that's a trade you don't want to take. Or if you're going to do it be very, very nimble about where you're
59 00:11:44,550 --> 00:11:56,160 getting out at don't anticipate a run through that low, or that old Hi, in this example here, and this is real world examples have done this actual trade based
60 00:11:56,160 --> 00:12:02,730 on what I'm showing you here this week at the time of this recording. So those individuals who have followed me on Twitter, they know exactly what I'm talking
61 00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:16,800 about. And you can go look at my Twitter, you'll see it for November 10 2017. So we have a old low on an hourly chart here for British Pound USD. And as price
62 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:26,310 trades back down to it, we would anticipate a measurable bounce or potential reversal. So that means we don't really want to be selling short around that
63 00:12:26,310 --> 00:12:38,520 time, because it may encounter some measure of bullishness or at least an unwillingness to go lower. So if we use the logic that we may anticipate a rally
64 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:47,940 higher, we can look for optimal trade entry Long's in the New York session on a reversal basis, not a continuation of what has been seen overnight in London. So
65 00:12:47,940 --> 00:12:58,830 eventually, if we see that 60 minute chart, move higher, and break a market structure as we seen here, then we can look for the following day to do a
66 00:12:58,830 --> 00:13:08,580 standard classic buy day, which you'll learn about my tutorials. And the market trades down because an optimal trade entry long at the London open. And like
67 00:13:08,580 --> 00:13:22,380 myself here I was only seven pips away. Four pips if you if you're using the spread from the very low today, calling about an 80 PIP move or so intraday, and
68 00:13:23,250 --> 00:13:38,160 very, very nice run as a result of it. But the 16 minute charts going to help you fare and filter when the market most likely will reverse. Okay, money
69 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:48,930 management. While you develop and practice in your demo camp, it's important for you to implement strict risk controls. Now this isn't fun isn't sound
70 00:13:48,990 --> 00:13:58,440 fascinating. It's not sexy, but it really is your only protection. And in this business, you need everything you can to protect yourself many times from
71 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:05,580 yourself. If you want to see what can be accomplished, you need to use sound money management. Now,
72 00:14:06,330 --> 00:14:17,130 for this, in many of my teachings, you're going to see me preaching. Consider 1% per setup. That means 1% of your total account equity, and gradually working
73 00:14:17,130 --> 00:14:25,650 your way up to 2% if this meets your risk tolerance. Now I'm not trying to talk you into these percentages. Many times some of you elect to go with less than
74 00:14:25,650 --> 00:14:34,350 1%. And there's nothing wrong with that. Some of you want to be cowboys and trade larger than 2%. But my advice is, if you've not been profitable for at
75 00:14:34,350 --> 00:14:46,380 least five years minimum, I wouldn't even venture above 2%. It's just not worth it. Now it's important not to try to swing for homeruns or take larger risks to
76 00:14:46,380 --> 00:14:54,480 try to grow your account faster. It's not necessary, it's reckless and you shouldn't try to do it at all. Over leverage will impede your development and
77 00:14:54,480 --> 00:15:02,160 drastically decrease your chances of seeing responsible equity growth as well. So if you look at a set As we have here, this is again, it's a setup I actually
78 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:15,420 took today in the market in November 10 2017. In British Pound USD, the London setup I used in this is London setup. So not really teaching the application in
79 00:15:15,420 --> 00:15:25,020 a New York setup, but it's the same principle. If we are looking for an optimal trade entry long, let's assume for a moment we were trying to buy at 131 20. Our
80 00:15:25,020 --> 00:15:37,530 stop loss relative to the optimal trade entry pattern and fed would be at 131. Big figure. So we have a 20 PIP range between entry to stop loss from a risk
81 00:15:37,530 --> 00:15:48,690 base, if we had an account of say, $1,000, a very modest account. And having 1% of that, or risk in dollar terms would be a total of $10, less, commission,
82 00:15:48,690 --> 00:16:00,630 whatever it is that you would be paying for your broker. Now that $10, with 20, pips, divided $10 by 20, pips and it gives you a multiple, or, in this case,
83 00:16:00,630 --> 00:16:18,450 your demo leverage would be five micro lots, okay, we're about 50 cents per Pip. By having this, we know that we should not see a larger loss than 1%, or $10. If
84 00:16:18,450 --> 00:16:33,510 we took the loss, our account would drop down to $990, give or take whatever commissions, your broker may or may not charge. If we're trying to trade with
85 00:16:33,510 --> 00:16:44,640 this model, okay, obviously, you've seen many instances where I've shown help taking partial profits can remove that number one barrier of being able to hold
86 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:54,240 on to the trade because you want to make a profit, you're afraid to take a loss, and you want to make money by taking partial profits. And in this case, it'd be
87 00:16:54,240 --> 00:17:07,380 at 131 40, I'm sorry, 131 54, would be our first profit objective. By taking something off, it removes that insatiable desire to be right, you've taken
88 00:17:07,380 --> 00:17:15,600 something off, you've reduced risk, but you also gave yourself that little cookie, that little pat on the back, he did something good. And at this moment,
89 00:17:15,660 --> 00:17:25,740 you can choose to do that. Or if it trades up to target one on your fib, that would be in this case, 131 69. At that moment, then you can move your stop loss
90 00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:34,260 to break even and take no partial, and then try to reach for target to and at that point, take a portion of the trade off and then move to stop loss just
91 00:17:34,260 --> 00:17:45,270 below 131 54? Or where would your top of your fib would be we've anchored it on the high point. Now you can move your stop loss just below that. And then again,
92 00:17:45,270 --> 00:17:55,260 consider taking partial profits at the symmetrical price swing and maybe leave a little piece on to go further, or collapse entirely at the symmetrical price
93 00:17:55,260 --> 00:18:11,910 swing the effects of money management and the rules I have. I've never been I guess so rigid in the way I do it. I trade more or less with an impulse with
94 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:21,300 what I feel the markets telling me and it's hard to digest that. And it's all based on tape reading and tape reading is you know, if that's an experiential
95 00:18:21,300 --> 00:18:34,770 thing, it's you can't you can't really teach it. You can't say here's what here's what you do. It's something you have to learn by spending years, not
96 00:18:34,770 --> 00:18:40,320 days, not a couple hours, not a couple months, years of watching price action.
97 00:18:42,869 --> 00:18:54,329 I've said many times now, and I'm a dinosaur. I'm over 25 years doing this now. So it's a lot of experience and things I've seen that tend to repeat themselves
98 00:18:54,329 --> 00:19:02,549 over and over and over again in price. And very rarely ever shocked or surprised by what I see in price because it's usually the same type of thing over and over
99 00:19:02,549 --> 00:19:14,339 again. But you would think with 25 years plus doing it, I would have a rigid exit strategy. And the closest thing I've got is using these firms and what I
100 00:19:14,339 --> 00:19:24,209 feel from the marketplace. Now some of you will take this insight that I've shared with you and build a really strong, rigid rule based idea about when you
101 00:19:24,209 --> 00:19:34,169 take profits. And I've actually asked my own mentorship students, if they are able to come up with something I would love to be able to see that because I
102 00:19:34,169 --> 00:19:44,159 have always been very honest and said that my weakest point in my trading is the exits. I'm never satisfied with them. Because I'm trying to crack that as like
103 00:19:44,159 --> 00:19:51,179 entries. I got like dialed in. I knew what I'm looking for, but exits I'm always looking for a way to improve that because think about it. That's how we get
104 00:19:51,179 --> 00:20:02,999 paid. So there's no real hard and fast rule based you know, routine that I do that I always find Although it does be how much do I take off? If I have 10?
105 00:20:02,999 --> 00:20:11,309 Lots on you? How many lots do I take off at first scale out? How many do I take it in target one, there's many times where I won't take anything off at first
106 00:20:11,309 --> 00:20:19,139 profit. I'll wait for target one. And I'll take half off there. And I'll take another portion off and target two, and then I'll have something on for
107 00:20:19,169 --> 00:20:26,429 symmetrical price swing. And then if there's time left in the day, I'll leave another portion on for that. So it's all a matter of what I see and feel in the
108 00:20:26,429 --> 00:20:35,069 marketplace. And I know that probably doesn't satisfy some of you, you're going to assume and almost feel like you're in a position where you can demand that I
109 00:20:35,069 --> 00:20:47,129 tell you exactly what I'm doing all the time. And this is one of those is I just can't do that. I don't think there's really a set in stone process, that would
110 00:20:47,129 --> 00:20:58,049 be so beneficial for you that if you do it this way all the time, it's good enough, I have not seen that in my own experience. So taking profits, I think
111 00:20:58,049 --> 00:21:05,819 it's something that's personal, you need to know what you're going to do, and you're going to spend the rest of your life mastering that and never arriving at
112 00:21:05,819 --> 00:21:19,469 mastery. So that's gonna be it for this volume, I've covered a really good approach to breaking down how to find the setups, the currency pair that you're
113 00:21:19,469 --> 00:21:27,809 probably following, if you're just looking at one, it's not going to give you a set up every single day. But if you have a nice handful of pairs, that you know,
114 00:21:27,809 --> 00:21:36,659 you're looking for specific conditions as we outlined, it will give you a set up a couple times a week. And that's all you need. You only need 23 pips a week at
115 00:21:36,659 --> 00:21:49,109 2% risk. And you can double your account every single calendar year by compounding 6% return 6% a month is not a lot, it's very easy to get to. But you
116 00:21:49,109 --> 00:21:57,119 have to know what you're looking for first. And hopefully, in these three volumes in this series, it's been short enough and concise enough for you to at
117 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:08,249 least see what it is that I can point to on a chart. And you can see it too. And how it repeats itself, there's consistency, there's continuity, there is high
118 00:22:08,249 --> 00:22:19,319 probability. And it except for that rule based ideas that are lacking on the exits, because it's more or less, you're gonna be winging it. Okay, and I wish I
119 00:22:19,319 --> 00:22:29,609 could be stronger in my approach to teaching that. But there's really no way for me to formulate a always this is the way it's done. I got levels I like. And
120 00:22:29,639 --> 00:22:37,169 based on what I see in market action and time of day, they because of my experience, they will tell me what I want to do. And it won't always be the best
121 00:22:37,169 --> 00:22:45,089 way of doing it. Sometimes it just takes off and goes on and on and on. And I won't be a part of that move. Or sometimes I'm holding for something like that,
122 00:22:45,179 --> 00:22:53,579 and it doesn't really run, it just goes to target one, or maybe it goes up to first profit, and I didn't take anything off there and it's it comes back and
123 00:22:53,579 --> 00:23:03,089 hits me on my stop. So there's things that you're going to have to learn by experience, and I can't teach it, no one else is gonna be on ttt either. And
124 00:23:03,089 --> 00:23:10,529 you're just gonna have to accept that, you know, there's going to be things that you're not going to get answers to in trading, that you'll find the closest
125 00:23:10,529 --> 00:23:19,199 thing to answering it by your own discovery. And big be excited about that. You don't don't think that you have to know everything right now. Because you don't.
126 00:23:20,069 --> 00:23:29,249 There's a lot of things that you're doing or are about to do, or the way you think that's going to be the impediment when you be coming consistent or
127 00:23:29,249 --> 00:23:37,769 profitable at all, the person you sit, sit and stare at in the mirror, that person is your biggest enemy right now. Because they're telling you all the good
128 00:23:37,769 --> 00:23:42,449 things. And they're trying to tell you not to talk
129 00:23:42,599 --> 00:23:52,739 to yourself when you're doing it wrong. That's okay. Your conscience needs to be you need to be sensitive to your conscience. Okay, if you know what you're doing
130 00:23:52,739 --> 00:24:01,679 is wrong. Even in a demo account, you need to stop in just get yourself out of the marketplace. If you're not gonna be focused and organized, don't bother with
131 00:24:01,679 --> 00:24:11,369 it. Okay, but hopefully you've seen enough with these three videos that are giving you a way to go into the markets every single trading day and look for
132 00:24:11,369 --> 00:24:20,879 opportunities, even if it's in hindsight, it's beneficial to study it. But there's something that is specific that now you can go into price action and now
133 00:24:20,879 --> 00:24:29,279 seek it. So many folks when they first start. They put all these indicators on a chart and all these things okay to distract themselves away from the open high,
134 00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:38,459 low and close. And open high low and close is the four best indicators you're ever going to find in price action. Its price, so hopefully you found this
135 00:24:38,459 --> 00:24:46,739 insightful. Hopefully you enjoyed it. I'd love to have your feedback on twitter at i m ICT and until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading