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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 16:49
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
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3 ICT: Okay folks, we are looking at the intermediate term
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7 trading plan example. Now what we're going to cover in this
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11 module is going to be just an example like it states here.
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15 There's going to me certain aspects of this particular
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19 example of a plan where I can In suggest that you could use
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23 other tools or applications and where I note those,
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27 obviously you can use the suggested mediums and tools at
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31 that time. It's not meant for you to use this as a specific
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35 trading plan. I'm not advocating that you take this and run
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39 with it, just invest real money with it. It's meant to
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43 stimulate prudent decision making on your part. Determine
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47 whether or not you have the patience and faculties really to
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51 be trader and follow a plan of this nature. And obviously,
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55 if we're talking about intermediate term trading, duration,
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59 the trade is absolutely absolutely different than what most
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63 folks are doing in terms of forex. By that means I'm
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67 referring to intraday and scalp trading. This is not very
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71 short term trading, its entire timeframe. Premise,
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75 predominantly, and your trades are going to take a whole lot
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79 of time to set up. And also equally more time to unfold to
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83 its completion. So, this module will, more or less demand a
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87 level of patience that probably the majority of traders will
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91 not have it at the early stages of their development.
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95 Alright, we're going to talk with the general market and the
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99 overall trading plan outline for trading intermediate term.
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103 Obviously, the timeframe that we're gonna be trading is the
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107 daily chart. Okay, the trading plan outline. Now, the
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111 timeframe that we are trading in this specific example is
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115 going to be referred to predominantly the daily chart. And
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119 its primary focus in this plan is to trade the intermediate
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123 term price swings found on daily chart. Typically, trade
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127 durations will last anywhere between several weeks to as
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131 many as months now in this Plan we're going to classify
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135 bullish conditions in bearish conditions. Okay, and this is
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139 more or less the, the market environment that will
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143 facilitate buys and sells. First we're obviously gonna look
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147 at the bullish conditions. And typically when you enter a
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151 seasonal tendency when you would expect a bullish market,
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155 obviously, that sets you on, on alert to look for terms or
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159 buying conditions in the marketplace that will facilitate
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163 long positions. We're going to be watching the interest
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167 rates, okay. And we wouldn't be expecting interest rates to
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171 be moving higher and or looking for divergence, okay in the
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175 yields to possibly indicate that we're battling out in the
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179 yield and we may be going higher because markets basically
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183 seek higher yields that is going to create the risk on
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187 effect that we're looking for for a bullish condition.
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191 Obviously, it goes without saying, if we're looking for a
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195 risk scenario, the US dollar is going to weaken at this
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199 timeframe. So we're going to be looking for topping
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203 formations or weakening of the US dollar on the daily chart.
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207 The Treasury notes, okay, two year five year and 10 year,
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211 we'll be looking for those futures markets because you're
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215 gonna be contrasting forex trading with the insights that we
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219 gleaned from the futures market. The daily charts on two
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223 five and 10 year should be declining. And because there's an
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227 inversion of relationship between the yields and the futures
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231 markets, tea notes will be going down on your daily charts.
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235 Wow. That indicates that the interest rate itself its yield
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239 would be moving higher.
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243 CBOT, this commodity
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247 tool that we use commitment traders. We're gonna be looking
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251 for hopefully, the commercials being a net long position or
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255 if they are net short we want to be looking for an
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259 aggressively lessening of They're short positions. Okay. And
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263 you can see that in open interest. sentiment, obviously, on
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267 the daily chart should be oversold. And the way we're going
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271 to determining that is we're gonna be looking at a daily
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275 Williams percent are okay, so that's going to be our tool to
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279 more or less indicate to us whether or not if the market
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283 sentiment is oversold or overbought. Okay in this case since
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287 we're looking for bullish conditions, ideally the sentiment
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291 should be oversold stock indices, hopefully at this time are
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295 firming and or bullish, okay. So, in other words, you're
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299 looking for some kind of failure swing between the major
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303 stock indices, and that would be at hopefully at a key
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307 support level commodities should be at this time bullish and
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311 we would reference that would be look at the CRB index and
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315 it should be trading firm to bullish at a key support level
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319 and maybe even looking for a buy pattern of some sort and
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323 Maybe an optimal trade entry something that nature. When I
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327 say firm it means indicating a unwillingness to go lower.
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331 Okay. And gold and oil obviously good benchmarks for the
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335 economy, they should be firm and or too bullish as well.
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339 Conversely, obviously for the bearish conditions seasonally
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343 speaking, there should be a bearish market environment
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347 seasonally speaking, that should set you on on alert to look
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351 for sell scenarios. Interest rates at this time should be
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355 moving lower, okay because the market will shun lower
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359 yields. If the interest rates are dropping, that will
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363 indicate that there's a risk off scenario and if there's a
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367 risk off scenario, it goes without saying that the US dollar
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371 would be strengthening at that time. Treasury notes on a
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375 daily chart should be rising. And again, because there's an
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379 inverted relationship between yield and the futures market.
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383 The interest rates yield will be moving lower while the
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387 futures daily charts on the two year five year and 10 year
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391 should be rising. Me traders report the net position should
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395 show commercials net short and or aggressively increasing
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399 short positions and you find that with the referencing of
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403 the open interest sentiment should be overbought. And again
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407 it's based on a Williams percent our basis on a daily chart
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411 and we'll talk more about that when we start going in to the
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415 actual analysis. And obviously, the stock indices should be
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419 soft or too bearish on a daily chart so your NASDAQ dow and
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423 s&p indices should be topping in here and or trading at key
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427 resistance levels respectively. commodities at this point
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431 should be bearish and we will be referencing the CRB index
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435 again as well hopefully looking for some kind of topping
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439 formation key resistance levels or some rejections at the
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443 highs indicating that is now soft and or trading. bearishly
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447 and, again, referencing the golden oil benchmark for the
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451 economy should be soft. Maybe we resistance in both those
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455 markets as well, seeing softer prices and maybe two, as much
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459 as bearishness to facilitate further confidence in a bearish
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463 market condition.
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467 Okay, the anticipatory stage for this example plan.
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471 Obviously, we always begin with identifying the higher
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475 timeframe monthly, weekly and daily key support resistance
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479 levels, because those levels are going to be the catalyst
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483 for us looking for signals. So without these levels, okay,
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487 we're not going to be taking a trade. So we must have a
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491 higher timeframe monthly, weekly or daily key support
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495 resistance level to facilitate trade. Okay, so we're going
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499 to be waiting for these levels to be traded to Now while
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503 we're waiting for a setup okay when we're seasonally
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507 speaking bullish, okay, you're gonna be stalking the yields.
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511 Okay, the yield triads and I'm going to refer to basically
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515 my favorite pairs for this plan that being the fiber, Euro
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519 USD and the cable British Pound USD pairs, okay, because
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523 they are cross with the dollar if we're seasonally speaking
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527 bullish, okay, what we're going to be looking for is the
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531 yields, okay, five year 10 year and two year between those
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535 three interest rate yields. If one fails to make a lower
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539 low, okay, that's going to be a positive divergence
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543 indicating there's a possible turn in yield and that may
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547 indicate a possible increase in yields, which would cause a
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551 bullishness and a risk on scenario. Okay? If we're
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555 seasonally speaking bearish, okay. And we See the yields
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559 between the US the German in the UK countries yields fail to
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563 make equal highs in their yields. Okay, that's a yield triad
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567 divergence, okay? And you will talk about them also
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571 examples, if it's not very clear to you here, but that would
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575 indicate a bearish stage in the marketplace overall so we're
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579 anticipating that to unfold, okay. At the same time, we
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583 would obviously be hunting the same scenario with the US
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587 Dollar Index, okay, we would be looking for the lows in the
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591 US Dollar Index, versus the highs and across currencies.
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595 Okay. And again, we're looking at the Euro versus the Dollar
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599 and the British Pound versus the Dollar. So if we're making
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603 lower lows in the dollar, but failing to make higher highs
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607 in one and or the both fiber and cable Then that is a USD
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611 SMT divergence okay and that would be bearish for the euro
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615 and or cable if the dollar was making lower lows in the Euro
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619 or fiber I'm sorry yeah euro or cable was unwilling to go
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623 higher debts weakness they should be confirmation between
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627 the three if the dollar makes lower lows that should be seen
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631 with higher highs with the fiber and cable. If there's not
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635 there's a crack and correlation that may indicate something
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639 monitoring highs in the US Dollar Index versus the lows and
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643 across currency pairs. Okay fiber and cable. If we see
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647 higher highs in the dollar and a failure to go lower in the
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651 fiber or cable again, that's an SMP divergence for the US
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655 Dollar Index. And that may be a cracking correlation that
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659 may indicate something. Now this can also reverse itself. If
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663 you see higher highs in the Euro or cable But a failure to
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667 go lower on the lows on the dollar index. That is the same
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671 scenario that is bullish for the dollar, which would
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675 indicate bearishness for the Euro or cable. And again, this
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678 00:13:14,160 ~-~-> 00:13:16,770
679 has to happen at a key resistance level for it to be bearish
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683 for the cross currency. Okay, the dollar index may be
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687 trading down to a support level and make a higher low when
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691 the key one five or maybe made a higher high, it looks
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695 bullish on their charts. But behind the scenes, you can see
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699 that there's actually strengthening going on at a key
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703 support level for the dollar index. And again, same thing
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707 happens if you reverse it if the US Dollar Index fails make
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711 a higher high while the lower lows that are seen in the
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715 cable or fiber are met equally and lower. There's lower lows
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719 and in the cross currency euro or cable. There's a cracking
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723 correlation as well. So you have to compare the highs and
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727 lows between the three Okay, and That'll also segue into the
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731 correlator pair SMT you're going to be looking for the lows
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735 between the pound and the euro. Okay, so though generally
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739 they move in tandem. If we see trading at a key support
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743 level, and one fails to make a lower low, that's correlated
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747 pair SMT divergence, possibly indicating there should be a
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751 short term shift in the marketplace for a bounce higher. And
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753 189
754 00:14:27,990 ~-~-> 00:14:29,850
755 obviously comparing the highs at
756
757 190
758 00:14:32,250 ~-~-> 00:14:36,210
759 key resistance levels if the pound and euro fail to make
760
761 191
762 00:14:36,210 ~-~-> 00:14:39,360
763 equal highs, that's a correlated pair SMT possibly
764
765 192
766 00:14:39,360 ~-~-> 00:14:42,360
767 indicating some distribution in the marketplace and there
768
769 193
770 00:14:42,360 ~-~-> 00:14:48,780
771 may be a short term shift in the marketplace lower. We'll be
772
773 194
774 00:14:48,780 ~-~-> 00:14:52,230
775 watching the stock market indices Okay, looking for SMP
776
777 195
778 00:14:52,230 ~-~-> 00:14:57,150
779 divergence as well. Looking for the Dow, s&p 500 and NASDAQ
780
781 196
782 00:14:57,150 ~-~-> 00:15:01,050
783 Composite Index to compare comparable Make higher highs and
784
785 197
786 00:15:01,050 ~-~-> 00:15:04,050
787 lower lows if we're bullish, and we're in a bullish
788
789 198
790 00:15:04,050 ~-~-> 00:15:08,430
791 environment and we see the Dow s&p 500 and NASDAQ trading
792
793 199
794 00:15:08,430 ~-~-> 00:15:12,180
795 lower in tandem, eventually one fails to make that lower low
796
797 200
798 00:15:12,630 ~-~-> 00:15:15,780
799 at a key support level at a time frame when everything else
800
801 201
802 00:15:15,780 ~-~-> 00:15:20,520
803 is lining up. That is a stock market SMT divergence Okay, so
804
805 202
806 00:15:20,520 ~-~-> 00:15:24,000
807 we we want to be seeing confirmation we want to be measuring
808
809 203
810 00:15:24,150 ~-~-> 00:15:27,780
811 on a daily basis monitoring the overall risk on a risk off
812
813 204
814 00:15:27,780 ~-~-> 00:15:31,500
815 scenario. So using Dow Theory, essentially, we want to be
816
817 205
818 00:15:31,500 ~-~-> 00:15:34,800
819 looking for these three averages to confirm higher highs for
820
821 206
822 00:15:35,160 ~-~-> 00:15:39,870
823 continuation on the upside and or looking for follow
824
825 207
826 00:15:40,710 ~-~-> 00:15:43,860
827 continuation and confirmation between a three as they go
828
829 208
830 00:15:43,860 ~-~-> 00:15:46,230
831 lower, there should be lower lows between the three if one
832
833 209
834 00:15:46,290 ~-~-> 00:15:49,650
835 starts to buck that trend at a key resistance or support
836
837 210
838 00:15:49,650 ~-~-> 00:15:54,540
839 level. There's an indication that you may have to pay closer
840
841 211
842 00:15:54,540 ~-~-> 00:15:57,150
843 attention because it may be something setting up or if
844
845 212
846 00:15:57,150 ~-~-> 00:15:59,850
847 you're in a trade it may be indicating it's time to tighten
848
849 213
850 00:15:59,850 ~-~-> 00:16:03,150
851 up. stop losses and take some profits or even exit the
852
853 214
854 00:16:03,150 ~-~-> 00:16:07,200
855 trade. Again, referring to the movement traders net
856
857 215
858 00:16:07,200 ~-~-> 00:16:10,770
859 position, we're going to be looking for long positions when
860
861 216
862 00:16:10,770 ~-~-> 00:16:13,830
863 the commercials are net long. And obviously looking for
864
865 217
866 00:16:13,830 ~-~-> 00:16:16,110
867 shorts when the commercials are net short, looking at the
868
869 218
870 00:16:16,110 ~-~-> 00:16:18,870
871 overall trend of where the commercials are trading on the
872
873 219
874 00:16:18,870 ~-~-> 00:16:22,440
875 weekly charts, using the Commitment of Traders net position,
876
877 220
878 00:16:23,040 ~-~-> 00:16:26,190
879 you'll be able to see where they're trading in terms of a
880
881 221
882 00:16:26,190 ~-~-> 00:16:29,370
883 long term macro trend. And when we're getting in sync with
884
885 222
886 00:16:29,370 ~-~-> 00:16:33,630
887 that, using the si t and our timeframe, key support
888
889 223
890 00:16:33,630 ~-~-> 00:16:39,870
891 resistance levels. open interest, um, we've discussed this
892
893 224
894 00:16:39,900 ~-~-> 00:16:42,690
895 in other modules, and obviously we're not going to beat it
896
897 225
898 00:16:42,690 ~-~-> 00:16:45,420
899 to death here. But basically it's when we're in bullish
900
901 226
902 00:16:45,420 ~-~-> 00:16:48,360
903 condition and we're trading as support if we see a 15 to
904
905 227
906 00:16:48,360 ~-~-> 00:16:54,930
907 20%. Drop in open interest. That is a very, very strong
908
909 228
910 00:16:54,930 ~-~-> 00:16:58,260
911 indication that a buy signal is either forming and or it has
912
913 229
914 00:16:58,260 ~-~-> 00:17:02,850
915 formed and it's bullish. In bearish conditions when price is
916
917 230
918 00:17:02,850 ~-~-> 00:17:06,150
919 trading at resistance, and we see a increase in open
920
921 231
922 00:17:06,150 ~-~-> 00:17:09,660
923 interest 15 to 20% or more, it doesn't have to be just 20
924
925 232
926 00:17:10,050 ~-~-> 00:17:13,470
927 made many times be even greater than that in terms of an
928
929 233
930 00:17:13,470 ~-~-> 00:17:16,710
931 increase. But you want to see it rapidly increasing not you
932
933 234
934 00:17:16,710 ~-~-> 00:17:19,380
935 don't see a gradual because you want to see a rapid increase
936
937 235
938 00:17:19,410 ~-~-> 00:17:22,080
939 and just as well as you want to see an increase. When it
940
941 236
942 00:17:22,080 ~-~-> 00:17:25,260
943 drops for bullishness, you want to see it rapidly do that,
944
945 237
946 00:17:25,560 ~-~-> 00:17:28,830
947 because that's an indication that the commercials are really
948
949 238
950 00:17:28,830 ~-~-> 00:17:33,540
951 really adjusting positions and allocating funds to offset
952
953 239
954 00:17:33,870 ~-~-> 00:17:37,290
955 the initial risk or risk on scenario that may impact the
956
957 240
958 00:17:37,290 ~-~-> 00:17:40,290
959 market to actually working with him. So if you see an
960
961 241
962 00:17:40,290 ~-~-> 00:17:43,200
963 increase in open interest at a resistance level that's
964
965 242
966 00:17:43,200 ~-~-> 00:17:48,750
967 bearish. market sentiment, obviously we would be expecting
968
969 243
970 00:17:48,750 ~-~-> 00:17:52,260
971 sell signals when we are at key resistance levels and
972
973 244
974 00:17:52,260 ~-~-> 00:17:55,560
975 overbought based on the daily chart. And we would be looking
976
977 245
978 00:17:55,560 ~-~-> 00:17:58,590
979 for buy signals when we're at key support and oversold on a
980
981 246
982 00:17:58,590 ~-~-> 00:17:59,040
983 daily
984
985 247
986 00:18:09,480 ~-~-> 00:18:12,780
987 Alright, the execution stage, obviously, again, referencing
988
989 248
990 00:18:12,780 ~-~-> 00:18:15,720
991 the monthly, weekly and daily key support resistance levels.
992
993 249
994 00:18:16,560 ~-~-> 00:18:18,630
995 We're gonna be determining before we do any trades at all,
996
997 250
998 00:18:18,690 ~-~-> 00:18:21,930
999 we're going to be turning that specific moment are we on
1000
1001 251
1002 00:18:22,050 ~-~-> 00:18:25,830
1003 risk or off risk for that particular day or that session
1004
1005 252
1006 00:18:25,830 ~-~-> 00:18:30,030
1007 that we're trading? If we are risk on obviously your buy
1008
1009 253
1010 00:18:30,030 ~-~-> 00:18:34,320
1011 scenarios our ago, if we are risk off your sell scenarios,
1012
1013 254
1014 00:18:34,350 ~-~-> 00:18:38,190
1015 our ago, you wouldn't be referring to the daily buy and sell
1016
1017 255
1018 00:18:38,190 ~-~-> 00:18:41,340
1019 programs. Okay, and that means are we trading off of a key
1020
1021 256
1022 00:18:41,340 ~-~-> 00:18:45,000
1023 support and off a swing point formation on a daily chart?
1024
1025 257
1026 00:18:45,450 ~-~-> 00:18:48,630
1027 Because that's what you need for buys. And if we are in a
1028
1029 258
1030 00:18:48,630 ~-~-> 00:18:50,910
1031 sell program and we see a swing high forming a key
1032
1033 259
1034 00:18:50,910 ~-~-> 00:18:54,090
1035 resistance level, okay, that's an indication that we are in
1036
1037 260
1038 00:18:54,090 ~-~-> 00:19:00,810
1039 fact, a go for risk off scenario and daily self harm. Okay,
1040
1041 261
1042 00:19:00,810 ~-~-> 00:19:05,640
1043 so that that has to happen for us to be confident with our
1044
1045 262
1046 00:19:05,640 ~-~-> 00:19:10,440
1047 trading for this style trading. When we have that scenario,
1048
1049 263
1050 00:19:10,440 ~-~-> 00:19:13,770
1051 in effect, you're going to be transposing those key levels
1052
1053 264
1054 00:19:13,770 ~-~-> 00:19:16,680
1055 from the higher time frame monthly, weekly and daily, down
1056
1057 265
1058 00:19:16,680 ~-~-> 00:19:21,300
1059 to your lower timeframe, 60 minute, 15 minute and five
1060
1061 266
1062 00:19:21,300 ~-~-> 00:19:25,350
1063 minute charts, you're going to wait for price to trade to
1064
1065 267
1066 00:19:25,350 ~-~-> 00:19:29,820
1067 dues higher timeframe key support resistance levels, you
1068
1069 268
1070 00:19:29,820 ~-~-> 00:19:31,890
1071 want to only be trading in the direction the market
1072
1073 269
1074 00:19:31,890 ~-~-> 00:19:35,250
1075 structure that you find it's on the daily chart. So your
1076
1077 270
1078 00:19:35,250 ~-~-> 00:19:38,160
1079 market structure is going to be daily basis. Okay, you're
1080
1081 271
1082 00:19:38,160 ~-~-> 00:19:40,500
1083 not looking at market flow on one hour charts for our
1084
1085 272
1086 00:19:40,500 ~-~-> 00:19:43,890
1087 charts, you're only trading in the direction of the market
1088
1089 273
1090 00:19:43,890 ~-~-> 00:19:48,030
1091 structure that you find on a daily chart. You're using
1092
1093 274
1094 00:19:48,090 ~-~-> 00:19:54,120
1095 optimal trade entry. Now, this point here, you can use any
1096
1097 275
1098 00:19:54,180 ~-~-> 00:19:56,670
1099 trading pattern of your choice if you'd like the reflection
1100
1101 276
1102 00:19:56,670 ~-~-> 00:19:59,610
1103 pattern, you can trade that if you'd like MACD divergence,
1104
1105 277
1106 00:19:59,790 ~-~-> 00:20:02,730
1107 this is what you would use here. If you are type one bearish
1108
1109 278
1110 00:20:02,730 ~-~-> 00:20:05,460
1111 divergence for stochastics. That's, that's the pattern you
1112
1113 279
1114 00:20:05,460 ~-~-> 00:20:09,450
1115 would use here. If you'd like turtle suit patterns, that's
1116
1117 280
1118 00:20:09,450 ~-~-> 00:20:12,270
1119 the pattern you would use here, okay, but you have to trade
1120
1121 281
1122 00:20:12,270 ~-~-> 00:20:16,320
1123 it at a lower timeframe at a key support resistance level in
1124
1125 282
1126 00:20:16,320 ~-~-> 00:20:19,080
1127 the direction of the market structure on a daily chart.
1128
1129 283
1130 00:20:19,290 ~-~-> 00:20:22,980
1131 Okay, so the plug and play aspect here is you can use any
1132
1133 284
1134 00:20:22,980 ~-~-> 00:20:27,060
1135 entry pattern that you want, but it has to be in conjunction
1136
1137 285
1138 00:20:27,060 ~-~-> 00:20:30,090
1139 with the things that we've already discussed so far. Okay.
1140
1141 286
1142 00:20:30,630 ~-~-> 00:20:34,140
1143 Entry ideally should be traded in a major session open.
1144
1145 287
1146 00:20:34,350 ~-~-> 00:20:38,280
1147 Obviously I don't have it here Asia could be one. London and
1148
1149 288
1150 00:20:38,280 ~-~-> 00:20:42,450
1151 New York open are good because they're, they're just good
1152
1153 289
1154 00:20:42,450 ~-~-> 00:20:47,250
1155 times to be trading our timeframe setups for the fiber and
1156
1157 290
1158 00:20:47,250 ~-~-> 00:20:51,900
1159 cable. But if you're a yen pair trader or if you're an
1160
1161 291
1162 00:20:51,900 ~-~-> 00:20:55,860
1163 Aussie trader, or Kiwi trader or something like that, you
1164
1165 292
1166 00:20:55,860 ~-~-> 00:20:59,280
1167 could trade your positions in the asian session opening
1168
1169 293
1170 00:20:59,550 ~-~-> 00:21:03,180
1171 okay? Because Cuz those, those currencies have a lot of
1172
1173 294
1174 00:21:03,180 ~-~-> 00:21:07,110
1175 activity during those times a day. So, if you are a Aussie
1176
1177 295
1178 00:21:07,320 ~-~-> 00:21:11,880
1179 Kiwi or yen trader, obviously the asian session would be in
1180
1181 296
1182 00:21:12,270 ~-~-> 00:21:14,700
1183 session that you could be utilizing for higher timeframe
1184
1185 297
1186 00:21:15,600 ~-~-> 00:21:20,220
1187 intermediate term trades as well for entry. Our entry orders
1188
1189 298
1190 00:21:20,280 ~-~-> 00:21:22,590
1191 are going to be based on limit orders and we'll be keying
1192
1193 299
1194 00:21:22,590 ~-~-> 00:21:27,450
1195 off of the 60 to 70.5 and 79% retracement levels on the fibs
1196
1197 300
1198 00:21:27,870 ~-~-> 00:21:32,370
1199 to arrive at our entry points. And every one of our trades
1200
1201 301
1202 00:21:32,430 ~-~-> 00:21:37,500
1203 will always have a maximum risk of 2% never more. And
1204
1205 302
1206 00:21:37,500 ~-~-> 00:21:41,040
1207 ideally, you know less if we take a loss we reduce the risk
1208
1209 303
1210 00:21:41,040 ~-~-> 00:21:44,250
1211 as we go through if you don't know the return to go to our
1212
1213 304
1214 00:21:44,310 ~-~-> 00:21:48,750
1215 video for handling losses, and it gives you a program how to
1216
1217 305
1218 00:21:49,080 ~-~-> 00:21:55,200
1219 apply risk reduction procedures in terms of how to preserve
1220
1221 306
1222 00:21:55,200 ~-~-> 00:21:58,530
1223 your equity and it's always good to have that not always
1224
1225 307
1226 00:21:58,530 ~-~-> 00:22:02,070
1227 walking in the marketplace. Looking for exponential growth
1228
1229 308
1230 00:22:02,100 ~-~-> 00:22:04,980
1231 of your equity, you always have to have a shield and you're
1232
1233 309
1234 00:22:04,980 ~-~-> 00:22:07,620
1235 going to have losses you have string losses. So, this
1236
1237 310
1238 00:22:08,519 ~-~-> 00:22:13,079
1239 this example is not exempt from that you will have losses if
1240
1241 311
1242 00:22:13,079 ~-~-> 00:22:16,709
1243 you use this, okay? And again, I'm stressing this, use this
1244
1245 312
1246 00:22:16,709 ~-~-> 00:22:20,279
1247 in a demo account, okay? You determine if you have the
1248
1249 313
1250 00:22:20,549 ~-~-> 00:22:24,689
1251 capabilities to be a trader using this as a model, okay? It
1252
1253 314
1254 00:22:24,689 ~-~-> 00:22:29,159
1255 will help develop patience, it'll help develop anticipatory
1256
1257 315
1258 00:22:29,159 ~-~-> 00:22:32,729
1259 skills as a trader, but you won't have a whole lot of trait,
1260
1261 316
1262 00:22:32,789 ~-~-> 00:22:37,319
1263 okay, but it teaches you the concept and in processes that's
1264
1265 317
1266 00:22:37,319 ~-~-> 00:22:41,549
1267 needed, because if you can understand how to do this, all of
1268
1269 318
1270 00:22:41,669 ~-~-> 00:22:44,159
1271 the aspects of trading on a short term basis short term
1272
1273 319
1274 00:22:44,159 ~-~-> 00:22:46,499
1275 trading, day trading, scalping, if that's what you want to
1276
1277 320
1278 00:22:46,499 ~-~-> 00:22:51,749
1279 do. those facets of trading will be far easier if you
1280
1281 321
1282 00:22:51,749 ~-~-> 00:22:54,569
1283 understand this higher timeframe premise where you have that
1284
1285 322
1286 00:22:54,599 ~-~-> 00:22:59,039
1287 major tide in your favor, okay? It's kinda like a fish.
1288
1289 323
1290 00:22:59,699 ~-~-> 00:23:03,029
1291 Okay. If you're efficient in the stream, okay, what's easier
1292
1293 324
1294 00:23:03,029 ~-~-> 00:23:05,579
1295 if you stream if you swim downstream with the current or if
1296
1297 325
1298 00:23:05,579 ~-~-> 00:23:08,579
1299 you swim upstream? Okay, obviously goes without saying it's
1300
1301 326
1302 00:23:08,579 ~-~-> 00:23:12,509
1303 easy to swim downstream. There's a fish. That's a salmon,
1304
1305 327
1306 00:23:12,569 ~-~-> 00:23:16,169
1307 very small, the strongest fish in nature, it actually swims
1308
1309 328
1310 00:23:16,229 ~-~-> 00:23:19,829
1311 up current, okay, and leaps up out of the water, in scales
1312
1313 329
1314 00:23:19,829 ~-~-> 00:23:23,399
1315 over rocks and everything. And a lot of folks that know that
1316
1317 330
1318 00:23:23,399 ~-~-> 00:23:25,949
1319 will say, you know, I can be like that salmon, okay, I'm
1320
1321 331
1322 00:23:25,949 ~-~-> 00:23:28,589
1323 going to swim against the current. And, you know, I could
1324
1325 332
1326 00:23:28,589 ~-~-> 00:23:30,899
1327 prove how strong I am. And I'll be a contrarian trader every
1328
1329 333
1330 00:23:30,899 ~-~-> 00:23:33,959
1331 single time and never try to worry about getting in sync
1332
1333 334
1334 00:23:33,959 ~-~-> 00:23:38,009
1335 with the overall tide. And that's fine. Okay, granted you
1336
1337 335
1338 00:23:38,009 ~-~-> 00:23:40,079
1339 you'll probably get to where you're going. But if you're
1340
1341 336
1342 00:23:40,079 ~-~-> 00:23:42,929
1343 using the salmon as an example, you might want to recall
1344
1345 337
1346 00:23:42,929 ~-~-> 00:23:45,479
1347 also when the salmon gets to where it's got to go to
1348
1349 338
1350 00:23:45,479 ~-~-> 00:23:49,829
1351 fertilize those eggs, it dies. So, I mean, it's good that
1352
1353 339
1354 00:23:49,829 ~-~-> 00:23:52,649
1355 you get there, but you know, if you're exhausted you croak.
1356
1357 340
1358 00:23:52,889 ~-~-> 00:23:55,379
1359 You were good as that. So you want to be having things
1360
1361 341
1362 00:23:55,409 ~-~-> 00:23:59,099
1363 majority in your favor and trading with the tide. Okay,
1364
1365 342
1366 00:23:59,099 ~-~-> 00:24:01,799
1367 that's a joint that's What your focus should be okay and
1368
1369 343
1370 00:24:01,799 ~-~-> 00:24:05,279
1371 trading on the higher time frame premise, intermediate term
1372
1373 344
1374 00:24:06,089 ~-~-> 00:24:10,019
1375 timeframe, your short term day trades and your scalps in
1376
1377 345
1378 00:24:10,019 ~-~-> 00:24:14,189
1379 that direction also will have very, very immediate feedback
1380
1381 346
1382 00:24:14,189 ~-~-> 00:24:15,989
1383 you'll know right away if you're you're going to be
1384
1385 347
1386 00:24:15,989 ~-~-> 00:24:18,899
1387 profitable in the trades. You don't get that lackadaisical
1388
1389 348
1390 00:24:18,899 ~-~-> 00:24:20,729
1391 price action you usually get when you're trading counter
1392
1393 349
1394 00:24:20,729 ~-~-> 00:24:24,269
1395 trend. Stop Loss orders obviously always are going to
1396
1397 350
1398 00:24:24,299 ~-~-> 00:24:28,769
1399 originate at a 30 PIP stop from our entry point. And
1400
1401 351
1402 00:24:28,769 ~-~-> 00:24:31,409
1403 obviously whatever your entry price is take 30 pips from
1404
1405 352
1406 00:24:31,409 ~-~-> 00:24:36,869
1407 that above for short and below for Long's first profit is
1408
1409 353
1410 00:24:36,869 ~-~-> 00:24:41,219
1411 always going to be taken at 50% of our position at 30 pips
1412
1413 354
1414 00:24:41,219 ~-~-> 00:24:43,709
1415 profits and almost once a position goes to 30 pips profit,
1416
1417 355
1418 00:24:43,739 ~-~-> 00:24:47,429
1419 we take 50% of position off, and once we get that our stop
1420
1421 356
1422 00:24:47,429 ~-~-> 00:24:50,009
1423 loss moves to a break even status, okay, so now we're in a
1424
1425 357
1426 00:24:50,009 ~-~-> 00:24:53,819
1427 risk free scenario. Okay, we've already profited. We got
1428
1429 358
1430 00:24:53,819 ~-~-> 00:24:57,659
1431 half the position off. So basically making 1% on the trade.
1432
1433 359
1434 00:24:57,689 ~-~-> 00:25:00,569
1435 We're locked at breakeven. We cannot lose anything. We've
1436
1437 360
1438 00:25:00,569 ~-~-> 00:25:05,129
1439 already made and booked 1% profit. The remaining balance of
1440
1441 361
1442 00:25:05,129 ~-~-> 00:25:08,279
1443 the trade, you would look for targets based on Fibonacci
1444
1445 362
1446 00:25:08,279 ~-~-> 00:25:12,149
1447 extensions 127 extension and 162 extension, or I don't have
1448
1449 363
1450 00:25:12,149 ~-~-> 00:25:14,549
1451 it listed here, but you could have the two on an extension
1452
1453 364
1454 00:25:14,549 ~-~-> 00:25:17,939
1455 as well. Now you have 50% of your remaining position,
1456
1457 365
1458 00:25:18,209 ~-~-> 00:25:21,569
1459 there's a couple ways you can handle that. If you are
1460
1461 366
1462 00:25:21,899 ~-~-> 00:25:24,659
1463 uncomfortable and you're still learning, my advice would be
1464
1465 367
1466 00:25:24,659 ~-~-> 00:25:29,009
1467 to take 30% off when it gets to 127 extension and then take
1468
1469 368
1470 00:25:29,009 ~-~-> 00:25:33,449
1471 10 more off at 162 and maybe even another final 10% off at
1472
1473 369
1474 00:25:33,449 ~-~-> 00:25:39,209
1475 the 200 extension or take 30 off at 127 take 20 off at 162
1476
1477 370
1478 00:25:39,209 ~-~-> 00:25:41,789
1479 and just paper trade the remaining portion you don't have
1480
1481 371
1482 00:25:41,789 ~-~-> 00:25:45,059
1483 any open position, but then see if it goes to 200 extension,
1484
1485 372
1486 00:25:45,119 ~-~-> 00:25:48,779
1487 okay. But really the 127 wants you to you want to have at
1488
1489 373
1490 00:25:48,779 ~-~-> 00:25:52,619
1491 least 70 to 80% of your trade already in profit and then if
1492
1493 374
1494 00:25:52,619 ~-~-> 00:25:55,019
1495 you have a small portion obviously, you can leave that to
1496
1497 375
1498 00:25:55,019 ~-~-> 00:25:59,039
1499 ride to 200% or even greater. Okay, but you want to be
1500
1501 376
1502 00:25:59,039 ~-~-> 00:26:02,279
1503 taking profits employees Then at 127 and wants you to have
1504
1505 377
1506 00:26:02,279 ~-~-> 00:26:03,389
1507 the swing that you're trading.
1508
1509 378
1510 00:26:16,139 ~-~-> 00:26:19,469
1511 Okay, let's look at the 10 year t notes and how we can use
1512
1513 379
1514 00:26:19,469 ~-~-> 00:26:24,239
1515 these in conjunction with yield analysis. And what we're
1516
1517 380
1518 00:26:24,239 ~-~-> 00:26:28,559
1519 looking at here, so this is March, April of this year, in
1520
1521 381
1522 00:26:28,559 ~-~-> 00:26:33,239
1523 2012 going into spring, and we have a weekly swing low
1524
1525 382
1526 00:26:33,239 ~-~-> 00:26:38,969
1527 formed at the 128. Big figure for the 10 year Tinos, the US
1528
1529 383
1530 00:26:38,999 ~-~-> 00:26:46,469
1531 10 year t note. Note also that we have a old low here just
1532
1533 384
1534 00:26:46,469 ~-~-> 00:26:51,629
1535 above the 127 figure, and we have a rally up to the 132
1536
1537 385
1538 00:26:52,289 ~-~-> 00:26:56,579
1539 figure. And then we saw a decline down into March where we
1540
1541 386
1542 00:26:56,579 ~-~-> 00:26:59,999
1543 had support found that 128 big figure now that's an optimal
1544
1545 387
1546 00:26:59,999 ~-~-> 00:27:03,959
1547 Trade entry, okay. So if we see a swing low on a weekly
1548
1549 388
1550 00:27:03,959 ~-~-> 00:27:10,289
1551 chart on a 10 year and we see a pivot or swing low form at a
1552
1553 389
1554 00:27:11,189 ~-~-> 00:27:16,079
1555 big figure like this 128 we also see open interest
1556
1557 390
1558 00:27:16,109 ~-~-> 00:27:18,989
1559 declining. Okay. You can see at the bottom here, the purple
1560
1561 391
1562 00:27:18,989 ~-~-> 00:27:24,269
1563 level here, how open interest was declining? We would expect
1564
1565 392
1566 00:27:24,269 ~-~-> 00:27:28,469
1567 prices to rally up. Now, the tea notes rallying up that
1568
1569 393
1570 00:27:28,469 ~-~-> 00:27:33,659
1571 means that the yield is going to be dropping. If deal if,
1572
1573 394
1574 00:27:34,439 ~-~-> 00:27:38,519
1575 again, this is what happened later on going into the year,
1576
1577 395
1578 00:27:38,909 ~-~-> 00:27:45,419
1579 we saw that spring rally up seasonally speaking, that is an
1580
1581 396
1582 00:27:45,419 ~-~-> 00:27:48,899
1583 inverse relationship between the bonds. Okay, bond yields.
1584
1585 397
1586 00:27:49,409 ~-~-> 00:27:54,749
1587 So as the march low was formed, and we rallied up into May,
1588
1589 398
1590 00:27:54,989 ~-~-> 00:28:01,199
1591 June time period that was going to be mirrored In the yield,
1592
1593 399
1594 00:28:01,559 ~-~-> 00:28:06,269
1595 okay, dropping, so if the tea notes rally up, the yield
1596
1597 400
1598 00:28:06,269 ~-~-> 00:28:09,689
1599 itself is going to be declining, okay? So that's going to be
1600
1601 401
1602 00:28:09,689 ~-~-> 00:28:16,559
1603 bearish, that's going to drag risk out of the market, okay.
1604
1605 402
1606 00:28:16,589 ~-~-> 00:28:22,049
1607 In other words, the risk off scenario will unfold. Okay,
1608
1609 403
1610 00:28:22,049 ~-~-> 00:28:25,079
1611 there'll be a flight to quality and during this timeframe,
1612
1613 404
1614 00:28:25,289 ~-~-> 00:28:31,199
1615 we would see the dollar index rally and obviously, risky
1616
1617 405
1618 00:28:31,199 ~-~-> 00:28:34,649
1619 assets in foreign currencies and such, they would be
1620
1621 406
1622 00:28:34,649 ~-~-> 00:28:39,059
1623 declining. Okay, so we have seasonal tendency, we see the
1624
1625 407
1626 00:28:39,059 ~-~-> 00:28:42,809
1627 support and concepts that we utilize in all of our trading,
1628
1629 408
1630 00:28:43,109 ~-~-> 00:28:45,749
1631 optimal trade entry trading at a key support level, we would
1632
1633 409
1634 00:28:45,749 ~-~-> 00:28:49,799
1635 expect a rally up in this timeframe. Okay, April May time
1636
1637 410
1638 00:28:49,799 ~-~-> 00:28:52,979
1639 period going into the June months. Okay, let's see what
1640
1641 411
1642 00:28:52,979 ~-~-> 00:28:59,939
1643 happens in the five year t note. same scenario, we see a
1644
1645 412
1646 00:28:59,999 ~-~-> 00:29:03,329
1647 weakly optimal trade entry trading down into 122. Big
1648
1649 413
1650 00:29:03,329 ~-~-> 00:29:07,829
1651 figure, we see a swing point low. Okay, going into April.
1652
1653 414
1654 00:29:09,509 ~-~-> 00:29:13,109
1655 What unfolds obviously much in the same capacity we saw in
1656
1657 415
1658 00:29:13,109 ~-~-> 00:29:18,059
1659 the 10 year, the five year rallies up into the end of May,
1660
1661 416
1662 00:29:18,089 ~-~-> 00:29:22,619
1663 early June, okay, and even higher in the case of September
1664
1665 417
1666 00:29:22,619 ~-~-> 00:29:26,909
1667 this year, but we saw the shift that takes place with a
1668
1669 418
1670 00:29:26,909 ~-~-> 00:29:30,629
1671 bullish move going higher in the treasuries and T notes.
1672
1673 419
1674 00:29:31,529 ~-~-> 00:29:34,139
1675 Now, if the futures contracts going higher, again, remember
1676
1677 420
1678 00:29:34,139 ~-~-> 00:29:36,629
1679 their inverse relationship, that means it's going to see a
1680
1681 421
1682 00:29:36,629 ~-~-> 00:29:41,219
1683 decline in the yield so we see dollar up because dollar is
1684
1685 422
1686 00:29:41,219 ~-~-> 00:29:44,219
1687 gonna be trading in pretty much the same direction that the
1688
1689 423
1690 00:29:44,219 ~-~-> 00:29:47,909
1691 treasuries are going to lead it. Many times the dollar will
1692
1693 424
1694 00:29:47,909 ~-~-> 00:29:52,799
1695 lead treasuries, okay. It's vice versa. It's kind of like it
1696
1697 425
1698 00:29:52,799 ~-~-> 00:29:55,919
1699 one follows the other. Okay, but do you want to add the
1700
1701 426
1702 00:29:55,919 ~-~-> 00:30:00,689
1703 seasonal influences in a time of year like We only trade
1704
1705 427
1706 00:30:00,689 ~-~-> 00:30:03,719
1707 intraday we have time of day theory, we have time of year
1708
1709 428
1710 00:30:03,719 ~-~-> 00:30:08,429
1711 theory, where we see a spring decline or risk off scenario.
1712
1713 429
1714 00:30:09,149 ~-~-> 00:30:16,679
1715 Okay, and you'll see the dollar increase in bonds rally. So
1716
1717 430
1718 00:30:16,679 ~-~-> 00:30:19,229
1719 what does that look like in the yield? Okay, well, what
1720
1721 431
1722 00:30:19,229 ~-~-> 00:30:21,269
1723 we're looking at is a bond yield triad.
1724
1725 432
1726 00:30:22,829 ~-~-> 00:30:27,059
1727 And we're looking at specifically is the five year us,
1728
1729 433
1730 00:30:27,149 ~-~-> 00:30:33,629
1731 Treasury, Tino? The UK five year bond yield and the German
1732
1733 434
1734 00:30:33,629 ~-~-> 00:30:36,809
1735 five year bond yield. And how I got this chart, I went to
1736
1737 435
1738 00:30:36,809 ~-~-> 00:30:41,699
1739 bloomberg.com. And if you go actually and do Google, do
1740
1741 436
1742 00:30:41,699 ~-~-> 00:30:47,009
1743 Google on five year US Treasury, government bond yield,
1744
1745 437
1746 00:30:47,279 ~-~-> 00:30:50,609
1747 okay, and click on that and you'll see that the Bloomberg
1748
1749 438
1750 00:30:50,849 ~-~-> 00:30:55,349
1751 link, do the same thing with a UK five year bond yield.
1752
1753 439
1754 00:30:55,829 ~-~-> 00:30:58,499
1755 Bloomberg, put that in your Google search and obviously do
1756
1757 440
1758 00:30:58,499 ~-~-> 00:31:02,609
1759 the same thing with a German five year bond yield Bloomberg.
1760
1761 441
1762 00:31:02,819 ~-~-> 00:31:05,969
1763 And when you Google that, you'll get the link for a click on
1764
1765 442
1766 00:31:05,969 ~-~-> 00:31:09,419
1767 it. And when you get the chart that opens up similar to
1768
1769 443
1770 00:31:09,419 ~-~-> 00:31:15,359
1771 this, you'll just simply add the symbols you see here for a
1772
1773 444
1774 00:31:15,359 ~-~-> 00:31:22,529
1775 five year US Treasury or T note, yield. It's us GG. Number
1776
1777 445
1778 00:31:22,529 ~-~-> 00:31:31,559
1779 five, why are calling ind for a UK five year bond yield,
1780
1781 446
1782 00:31:31,559 ~-~-> 00:31:39,539
1783 it's g UK, g five colon ind. And for a German five year bond
1784
1785 447
1786 00:31:39,539 ~-~-> 00:31:46,709
1787 yield, it's G, D, br five, colon ind. Now what I want to
1788
1789 448
1790 00:31:46,709 ~-~-> 00:31:50,279
1791 draw your attention to real quick is if you look at the the
1792
1793 449
1794 00:31:50,279 ~-~-> 00:31:53,069
1795 darker orange color, and I don't, I can't pick the colors.
1796
1797 450
1798 00:31:53,069 ~-~-> 00:31:56,099
1799 It just does it by default. But if you look at how, in
1800
1801 451
1802 00:31:56,099 ~-~-> 00:32:00,239
1803 March, April, okay, the US Treasury was able to Make a
1804
1805 452
1806 00:32:00,239 ~-~-> 00:32:06,119
1807 higher high and yield. Okay? No, it would have went lower on
1808
1809 453
1810 00:32:06,149 ~-~-> 00:32:07,139
1811 the Tina.
1812
1813 454
1814 00:32:08,429 ~-~-> 00:32:09,059
1815 The
1816
1817 455
1818 00:32:10,440 ~-~-> 00:32:16,530
1819 green level law yield, that's the UK, it was able to make a
1820
1821 456
1822 00:32:16,560 ~-~-> 00:32:22,860
1823 modestly lower in comparison in terms of highs made in the
1824
1825 457
1826 00:32:22,920 ~-~-> 00:32:30,570
1827 US. Then we see the German was also weaker as well. Okay, so
1828
1829 458
1830 00:32:30,990 ~-~-> 00:32:36,840
1831 it wasn't able to go lower in its futures contract. But the
1832
1833 459
1834 00:32:36,840 ~-~-> 00:32:40,380
1835 yields you can see the disparity that's shifting in place
1836
1837 460
1838 00:32:40,620 ~-~-> 00:32:45,600
1839 that takes place where the US Treasury five year went
1840
1841 461
1842 00:32:45,600 ~-~-> 00:32:50,010
1843 higher. So we have SMT divergence, okay. There is a
1844
1845 462
1846 00:32:50,130 ~-~-> 00:32:54,750
1847 confirmation to there is a weakness underway going into
1848
1849 463
1850 00:32:54,810 ~-~-> 00:32:58,950
1851 April. So we see that weakness translated in the form of
1852
1853 464
1854 00:32:58,950 ~-~-> 00:32:59,970
1855 these overlays.
1856
1857 465
1858 00:33:02,820 ~-~-> 00:33:07,500
1859 If you take the
1860
1861 466
1862 00:33:08,849 ~-~-> 00:33:12,509
1863 UK off, okay, so now we're just looking at the German five
1864
1865 467
1866 00:33:12,509 ~-~-> 00:33:16,049
1867 year in the US five here, you can see a little bit clear now
1868
1869 468
1870 00:33:16,049 ~-~-> 00:33:21,119
1871 that the green level green is the German and the orange
1872
1873 469
1874 00:33:21,119 ~-~-> 00:33:27,059
1875 color is the US, US was able to make a higher high in yield,
1876
1877 470
1878 00:33:27,539 ~-~-> 00:33:32,099
1879 while the German was unable to make that higher high in
1880
1881 471
1882 00:33:32,099 ~-~-> 00:33:36,809
1883 going into March going into April. So we see a slide, lower
1884
1885 472
1886 00:33:36,809 ~-~-> 00:33:39,989
1887 in yield and that was translated in the rally up in the tea
1888
1889 473
1890 00:33:39,989 ~-~-> 00:33:42,809
1891 note that we saw in the US Treasury. So there's this
1892
1893 474
1894 00:33:43,289 ~-~-> 00:33:46,049
1895 symmetry between the two you want to be watching the yield
1896
1897 475
1898 00:33:46,049 ~-~-> 00:33:47,789
1899 you want to be watching the teenage you want to be watching
1900
1901 476
1902 00:33:47,789 ~-~-> 00:33:53,159
1903 the German yield. With the German futures contract, you can
1904
1905 477
1906 00:33:53,159 ~-~-> 00:33:57,089
1907 you can trade the trade but you can track it with its
1908
1909 478
1910 00:33:58,499 ~-~-> 00:34:04,499
1911 futures contract. In the UK as well. Seeing these big
1912
1913 479
1914 00:34:04,529 ~-~-> 00:34:09,689
1915 divergence, okay, adds confidence to your expectation
1916
1917 480
1918 00:34:09,779 ~-~-> 00:34:13,709
1919 expectancy, that we should be seeing weaker British pound
1920
1921 481
1922 00:34:13,739 ~-~-> 00:34:18,689
1923 and fiber prices and a rally in the dollar, April May
1924
1925 482
1926 00:34:18,689 ~-~-> 00:34:23,159
1927 timeframe when the spring seasonal influence should be
1928
1929 483
1930 00:34:23,159 ~-~-> 00:34:32,039
1931 coming underway. Now looking at the US and the UK, you can
1932
1933 484
1934 00:34:32,039 ~-~-> 00:34:37,649
1935 see that same thing happening. The orange level, it's the US
1936
1937 485
1938 00:34:38,069 ~-~-> 00:34:44,039
1939 and the green is the UK five year yield. We were unable to
1940
1941 486
1942 00:34:44,039 ~-~-> 00:34:48,359
1943 make that comparable higher high in the yield in the UK. So
1944
1945 487
1946 00:34:48,359 ~-~-> 00:34:53,069
1947 we see the SMT divergence that we would expect to see going
1948
1949 488
1950 00:34:53,069 ~-~-> 00:34:57,719
1951 into April so we saw further evidence by removing one you
1952
1953 489
1954 00:34:57,719 ~-~-> 00:35:00,449
1955 can slip a little clear you can see it dive divergence
1956
1957 490
1958 00:35:00,449 ~-~-> 00:35:07,619
1959 between the two yields. And by looking at just simply the UK
1960
1961 491
1962 00:35:07,619 ~-~-> 00:35:14,429
1963 and German yields, you can see that the German and UK yields
1964
1965 492
1966 00:35:14,609 ~-~-> 00:35:19,679
1967 were not able to make comparable highs between December and
1968
1969 493
1970 00:35:19,679 ~-~-> 00:35:25,889
1971 the middle of March. The UK was able to trade higher at the
1972
1973 494
1974 00:35:25,889 ~-~-> 00:35:31,289
1975 same time, the German was weaker, okay and was unable to
1976
1977 495
1978 00:35:31,289 ~-~-> 00:35:35,249
1979 make a higher high and yield. And you seen that also going
1980
1981 496
1982 00:35:35,279 ~-~-> 00:35:40,319
1983 into the actual price levels, that the fiber itself was
1984
1985 497
1986 00:35:40,319 ~-~-> 00:35:41,729
1987 trading because that's what the Germans going to be
1988
1989 498
1990 00:35:41,729 ~-~-> 00:35:46,469
1991 measuring the yield for that specific country. The UK is for
1992
1993 499
1994 00:35:46,469 ~-~-> 00:35:50,909
1995 the cable. Well, if you look at the the underlying weakness
1996
1997 500
1998 00:35:51,389 ~-~-> 00:35:54,749
1999 that was in the yield for the German you can see how we were
2000
2001 501
2002 00:35:54,749 ~-~-> 00:35:58,589
2003 really really weak really soft in the march april time
2004
2005 502
2006 00:35:58,589 ~-~-> 00:36:02,369
2007 period. For for For the five or so, there was really no
2008
2009 503
2010 00:36:02,369 ~-~-> 00:36:06,149
2011 participation whatsoever or interest in chasing any higher
2012
2013 504
2014 00:36:06,149 ~-~-> 00:36:08,939
2015 yield there. They were actually selling into that and you
2016
2017 505
2018 00:36:08,939 ~-~-> 00:36:14,219
2019 could see the the weakness really accelerate going into June
2020
2021 506
2022 00:36:14,219 ~-~-> 00:36:23,489
2023 and the middle of July Okay folks, we're looking at bar
2024
2025 507
2026 00:36:23,489 ~-~-> 00:36:28,949
2027 chart.com Okay, this is a free website absolutely zero fees
2028
2029 508
2030 00:36:28,949 ~-~-> 00:36:34,139
2031 whatsoever. So give you access to commodities and commodity
2032
2033 509
2034 00:36:34,139 ~-~-> 00:36:37,739
2035 traders reports and open interest. When you go to the
2036
2037 510
2038 00:36:37,739 ~-~-> 00:36:41,039
2039 homepage is what pops up you go over here to this little tab
2040
2041 511
2042 00:36:41,039 ~-~-> 00:36:45,629
2043 here says select the commodity. Tap that and we'll start
2044
2045 512
2046 00:36:45,629 ~-~-> 00:36:49,799
2047 with the US Dollar Index. Okay, when when opens up you'll
2048
2049 513
2050 00:36:49,799 ~-~-> 00:36:53,429
2051 get onto top a list to please the cash you don't want that
2052
2053 514
2054 00:36:54,359 ~-~-> 00:36:58,559
2055 year is the nearby contract December next month house March
2056
2057 515
2058 00:36:58,559 ~-~-> 00:37:04,259
2059 following by June and September, just click the top contract
2060
2061 516
2062 00:37:04,259 ~-~-> 00:37:08,669
2063 here to one that has a month again using cash. Click on
2064
2065 517
2066 00:37:08,669 ~-~-> 00:37:12,569
2067 December, it'll obviously depend upon what time of the year
2068
2069 518
2070 00:37:12,569 ~-~-> 00:37:16,769
2071 you're trading. And looking at the resource. It'll be a
2072
2073 519
2074 00:37:16,769 ~-~-> 00:37:19,199
2075 different month obviously, but you just want to the top one
2076
2077 520
2078 00:37:19,229 ~-~-> 00:37:21,599
2079 is going to be the nearby contract. Then go to this area
2080
2081 521
2082 00:37:21,599 ~-~-> 00:37:26,789
2083 here where it says customized chart, click that tab. And
2084
2085 522
2086 00:37:26,789 ~-~-> 00:37:31,589
2087 that'll open up a window to get you a chart like this. Okay,
2088
2089 523
2090 00:37:31,589 ~-~-> 00:37:33,359
2091 and what you're going to do is you're going to scroll down
2092
2093 524
2094 00:37:33,389 ~-~-> 00:37:35,999
2095 to this little area down here, we can set the parameters.
2096
2097 525
2098 00:37:36,659 ~-~-> 00:37:39,929
2099 You want to set the frequency to weekly nearest, what that's
2100
2101 526
2102 00:37:39,929 ~-~-> 00:37:43,139
2103 going to do is going to give you a chart based on weekly
2104
2105 527
2106 00:37:43,139 ~-~-> 00:37:48,389
2107 ranges using the nearby contract always. Okay, I'm gonna
2108
2109 528
2110 00:37:48,389 ~-~-> 00:37:52,799
2111 change it to candlesticks. I'm gonna change it to one year.
2112
2113 529
2114 00:37:54,239 ~-~-> 00:37:58,019
2115 And make sure this is saying total volume. Okay, total
2116
2117 530
2118 00:37:58,019 ~-~-> 00:38:00,809
2119 volume and the reason why you won't get The open interest
2120
2121 531
2122 00:38:00,809 ~-~-> 00:38:05,039
2123 and volume as you see down here, otherwise, click draw.
2124
2125 532
2126 00:38:10,950 ~-~-> 00:38:13,590
2127 Okay, and you'll get a window pops up with a new chart here.
2128
2129 533
2130 00:38:14,040 ~-~-> 00:38:17,850
2131 And what this is, this is a weekly chart using weekly range
2132
2133 534
2134 00:38:17,850 ~-~-> 00:38:23,370
2135 highs and lows derived from the nearest contract month of
2136
2137 535
2138 00:38:23,370 ~-~-> 00:38:26,820
2139 the US Dollar Index. Okay. And if you look at the bottom
2140
2141 536
2142 00:38:26,820 ~-~-> 00:38:31,470
2143 here, this purple line here, it's moving along here sneaking
2144
2145 537
2146 00:38:31,470 ~-~-> 00:38:36,570
2147 up and down. Okay, that delineates the total open interest
2148
2149 538
2150 00:38:36,570 ~-~-> 00:38:40,380
2151 for the dollar index. And obviously, it goes without saying
2152
2153 539
2154 00:38:40,380 ~-~-> 00:38:44,850
2155 these vertical red and green lines are volume. Okay, we're
2156
2157 540
2158 00:38:44,850 ~-~-> 00:38:47,100
2159 not gonna really pay attention to the volume, but there's
2160
2161 541
2162 00:38:47,100 ~-~-> 00:38:50,340
2163 just no way for me to take the volume off and just leave the
2164
2165 542
2166 00:38:50,340 ~-~-> 00:38:53,040
2167 open interest. So we have to kind of look past these
2168
2169 543
2170 00:38:53,040 ~-~-> 00:38:55,800
2171 vertical lines and pay attention to the purple line in here.
2172
2173 544
2174 00:38:55,860 ~-~-> 00:39:03,750
2175 Okay. So let's go and scroll down. Little bit notice how we
2176
2177 545
2178 00:39:03,990 ~-~-> 00:39:07,230
2179 rode up in price here on the dollar and then we went into a
2180
2181 546
2182 00:39:07,230 ~-~-> 00:39:09,780
2183 consolidation after small retracement, okay? See this
2184
2185 547
2186 00:39:09,780 ~-~-> 00:39:14,220
2187 consolidation here, we have a range high here. And we have a
2188
2189 548
2190 00:39:14,220 ~-~-> 00:39:18,750
2191 range low in here. Note the time of the year, okay? March,
2192
2193 549
2194 00:39:18,780 ~-~-> 00:39:22,680
2195 April, May, March, April May, because that's springtime of
2196
2197 550
2198 00:39:22,680 ~-~-> 00:39:27,330
2199 this year. Note the low here and the high here in this low.
2200
2201 551
2202 00:39:27,570 ~-~-> 00:39:30,810
2203 This is optimal trade entry. pull that up on your platform
2204
2205 552
2206 00:39:30,840 ~-~-> 00:39:32,850
2207 both of across that and you'll see that we did trade right
2208
2209 553
2210 00:39:32,850 ~-~-> 00:39:37,680
2211 back down to this level here. Now utilizing this this
2212
2213 554
2214 00:39:37,680 ~-~-> 00:39:43,770
2215 concept of weekly ranges and seasonal tendencies, okay.
2216
2217 555
2218 00:39:45,120 ~-~-> 00:39:48,870
2219 Typically in the springtime, we see a weakness come into the
2220
2221 556
2222 00:39:48,870 ~-~-> 00:39:52,380
2223 marketplace in the form of British Pound usually making a
2224
2225 557
2226 00:39:52,380 ~-~-> 00:39:55,590
2227 seasonal high April May and trading down into the summer
2228
2229 558
2230 00:39:55,590 ~-~-> 00:39:59,220
2231 months. Well, that's going to be a mirror image or reverse.
2232
2233 559
2234 00:39:59,550 ~-~-> 00:40:03,060
2235 Okay? In the dollar, the dollar should rally up at that same
2236
2237 560
2238 00:40:03,060 ~-~-> 00:40:06,570
2239 timeframe and you see that unfolding here. Okay, now we're
2240
2241 561
2242 00:40:06,570 ~-~-> 00:40:12,090
2243 going to introduce the concept of open interest. Okay? And I
2244
2245 562
2246 00:40:12,090 ~-~-> 00:40:16,260
2247 want you to take a look at this drop, okay rather sharp drop
2248
2249 563
2250 00:40:16,290 ~-~-> 00:40:19,920
2251 in open interest right here during a timeframe when we're in
2252
2253 564
2254 00:40:19,920 ~-~-> 00:40:23,520
2255 a consolidation. This is the commercials tipping their hand
2256
2257 565
2258 00:40:23,520 ~-~-> 00:40:28,710
2259 that this is now no longer going to be staying within this
2260
2261 566
2262 00:40:28,710 ~-~-> 00:40:32,490
2263 small little timeframe of trading range, okay? They expect
2264
2265 567
2266 00:40:33,030 ~-~-> 00:40:35,640
2267 higher prices Why? Because open interest is declining. We've
2268
2269 568
2270 00:40:35,640 ~-~-> 00:40:39,270
2271 learned at open interest decline in a consolidation is
2272
2273 569
2274 00:40:39,270 ~-~-> 00:40:43,230
2275 commercials doing what lessening their shorts if they're
2276
2277 570
2278 00:40:43,230 ~-~-> 00:40:46,530
2279 lessening their short positions. They expect what higher
2280
2281 571
2282 00:40:46,530 ~-~-> 00:40:51,030
2283 prices and you can see that unfolding here. Okay, now, by
2284
2285 572
2286 00:40:51,030 ~-~-> 00:40:54,660
2287 itself, that's wonderful, but how do you confirm that how do
2288
2289 573
2290 00:40:54,660 ~-~-> 00:40:58,950
2291 you see the X ray view so to speak of this open interest
2292
2293 574
2294 00:41:00,000 ~-~-> 00:41:03,030
2295 indicator giving you the insight that we're supposing it's
2296
2297 575
2298 00:41:03,030 ~-~-> 00:41:07,740
2299 doing here. Well you scroll down to this little area on your
2300
2301 576
2302 00:41:08,610 ~-~-> 00:41:13,020
2303 page and says add study, click on this tab here. And you
2304
2305 577
2306 00:41:13,020 ~-~-> 00:41:16,260
2307 want to go to Commitment of Traders line chart, tap that,
2308
2309 578
2310 00:41:16,860 ~-~-> 00:41:25,140
2311 then draw a chart. Okay, now watch. See the open interest
2312
2313 579
2314 00:41:25,140 ~-~-> 00:41:29,670
2315 declining here. That's lessening of shorts. The red line
2316
2317 580
2318 00:41:29,670 ~-~-> 00:41:33,720
2319 down here is the commercials. Okay, they are below the zero
2320
2321 581
2322 00:41:33,720 ~-~-> 00:41:36,570
2323 line here. So because they are net short, but look what
2324
2325 582
2326 00:41:36,570 ~-~-> 00:41:39,600
2327 you're doing the same time here, middle of March going into
2328
2329 583
2330 00:41:39,600 ~-~-> 00:41:43,980
2331 April, they're really reducing their shorts, see how they're
2332
2333 584
2334 00:41:43,980 ~-~-> 00:41:46,620
2335 covering their shorts at the same timeframe. open interest
2336
2337 585
2338 00:41:47,010 ~-~-> 00:41:50,850
2339 is declining while prices in a consolidation while price is
2340
2341 586
2342 00:41:50,850 ~-~-> 00:41:54,780
2343 trading at a key support level 79 see that level over here
2344
2345 587
2346 00:41:54,810 ~-~-> 00:41:59,310
2347 79. So we can expect reasonably seasonally we're looking for
2348
2349 588
2350 00:41:59,310 ~-~-> 00:42:03,360
2351 higher prices and Dollar weaker into fiber and cable. Okay,
2352
2353 589
2354 00:42:03,450 ~-~-> 00:42:07,710
2355 so there should be a risk off scenario, risk off is going to
2356
2357 590
2358 00:42:08,280 ~-~-> 00:42:12,960
2359 draw participants into buying safe haven assets. Now one can
2360
2361 591
2362 00:42:12,960 ~-~-> 00:42:17,070
2363 argue that the dollar may or may not be a safe asset to most
2364
2365 592
2366 00:42:17,130 ~-~-> 00:42:20,640
2367 but for instance, you can see that still unfolding here with
2368
2369 593
2370 00:42:20,640 ~-~-> 00:42:25,740
2371 a higher dollar rally up from the April May timeframe into
2372
2373 594
2374 00:42:26,280 ~-~-> 00:42:31,170
2375 the summer months. So that we have this mindset that we're
2376
2377 595
2378 00:42:31,170 ~-~-> 00:42:34,200
2379 looking for bullish prices in here. Okay, we would be in a
2380
2381 596
2382 00:42:34,200 ~-~-> 00:42:38,400
2383 buy program all through here. Okay. So now, let's look and
2384
2385 597
2386 00:42:38,400 ~-~-> 00:42:41,850
2387 see if we have that same thing occurring in the British
2388
2389 598
2390 00:42:41,850 ~-~-> 00:42:45,360
2391 Pound at the same timeframe in this year in the spring. So
2392
2393 599
2394 00:42:45,360 ~-~-> 00:42:46,440
2395 let's go back over
2396
2397 600
2398 00:42:48,810 ~-~-> 00:42:49,980
2399 to the commodity tab.
2400
2401 601
2402 00:42:51,300 ~-~-> 00:42:52,800
2403 And we're going to the British pound
2404
2405 602
2406 00:42:55,770 ~-~-> 00:42:57,240
2407 and you use the nearby contract.
2408
2409 603
2410 00:43:00,389 ~-~-> 00:43:04,349
2411 to click on your customized chart tab, and we're going to do
2412
2413 604
2414 00:43:04,349 ~-~-> 00:43:06,929
2415 the same thing we did with the dollar, we're going to make
2416
2417 605
2418 00:43:06,929 ~-~-> 00:43:12,059
2419 sure we are on candlesticks. We're going to look at weekly
2420
2421 606
2422 00:43:12,119 ~-~-> 00:43:17,759
2423 nearest, we're going to scroll to a one year chart, making
2424
2425 607
2426 00:43:17,759 ~-~-> 00:43:21,329
2427 sure total volume is clicked. And we're going to draw the
2428
2429 608
2430 00:43:21,329 ~-~-> 00:43:28,109
2431 chart. Okay, now we have a weekly chart on the British
2432
2433 609
2434 00:43:28,109 ~-~-> 00:43:34,409
2435 pound, okay? And you can see that April May high, unfold
2436
2437 610
2438 00:43:34,409 ~-~-> 00:43:39,899
2439 here. So we saw price drop down. Okay, so let's add a little
2440
2441 611
2442 00:43:39,899 ~-~-> 00:43:46,769
2443 bit of time to this because it is a little. This is that
2444
2445 612
2446 00:43:46,859 ~-~-> 00:43:51,239
2447 area right here. Okay. Now, if one takes this high here,
2448
2449 613
2450 00:43:51,719 ~-~-> 00:43:55,259
2451 down to this low, you can see that this is an optimal trade
2452
2453 614
2454 00:43:55,259 ~-~-> 00:43:58,919
2455 entry. Okay, this is an area where we would expect implied
2456
2457 615
2458 00:43:58,919 ~-~-> 00:44:02,399
2459 resistance Also noting that we did take out this old high as
2460
2461 616
2462 00:44:02,399 ~-~-> 00:44:07,829
2463 well. So price was really in it, it was free to find lower
2464
2465 617
2466 00:44:07,829 ~-~-> 00:44:11,249
2467 prices because we were seeing higher prices poised in the
2468
2469 618
2470 00:44:11,249 ~-~-> 00:44:16,289
2471 dollar at the same timeframe. April May. Now also note that
2472
2473 619
2474 00:44:16,289 ~-~-> 00:44:23,549
2475 we were in a range between this, this low, okay, and this
2476
2477 620
2478 00:44:23,549 ~-~-> 00:44:26,669
2479 old high in here. Okay, now we did break out. Okay, we did
2480
2481 621
2482 00:44:26,669 ~-~-> 00:44:30,269
2483 break out there, but we saw a rapid increase in open
2484
2485 622
2486 00:44:30,269 ~-~-> 00:44:34,229
2487 interest. Okay, so what does that mean? That the open
2488
2489 623
2490 00:44:34,229 ~-~-> 00:44:37,199
2491 interest is increasing while within a larger trading range.
2492
2493 624
2494 00:44:37,319 ~-~-> 00:44:39,749
2495 Okay. And one could argue really, this is a large trading
2496
2497 625
2498 00:44:39,749 ~-~-> 00:44:42,959
2499 range here. We had a rapid increase of the open interest
2500
2501 626
2502 00:44:42,959 ~-~-> 00:44:47,129
2503 here, gave up just a little bit before this run off, but
2504
2505 627
2506 00:44:47,129 ~-~-> 00:44:50,489
2507 ultimately, we're at it right back above the previous open
2508
2509 628
2510 00:44:50,489 ~-~-> 00:44:53,429
2511 interest here with shorts, so they quickly added all those
2512
2513 629
2514 00:44:53,429 ~-~-> 00:44:56,549
2515 shorts back while we round rallied up until a new high
2516
2517 630
2518 00:44:56,579 ~-~-> 00:44:59,279
2519 higher than this one. But we did not get back to this old
2520
2521 631
2522 00:44:59,279 ~-~-> 00:45:02,429
2523 high as well. So we back into this range. Okay, so think
2524
2525 632
2526 00:45:02,429 ~-~-> 00:45:05,189
2527 about what we've covered in the webinar inside the range.
2528
2529 633
2530 00:45:05,609 ~-~-> 00:45:10,259
2531 And that concept is unfolding here. So now watch, we're
2532
2533 634
2534 00:45:10,259 ~-~-> 00:45:12,989
2535 going to be looking for this open interest or increasing
2536
2537 635
2538 00:45:12,989 ~-~-> 00:45:15,959
2539 shorts, okay to be confirmed with what in the net traders
2540
2541 636
2542 00:45:15,959 ~-~-> 00:45:18,929
2543 position? Well, if we pull that chart up, we should be
2544
2545 637
2546 00:45:18,929 ~-~-> 00:45:23,549
2547 seeing what we should be seeing. commodity, I'm sorry,
2548
2549 638
2550 00:45:23,549 ~-~-> 00:45:30,089
2551 commercial traders. Going net short or adding to net short
2552
2553 639
2554 00:45:30,089 ~-~-> 00:45:34,499
2555 positions. Okay, and we're going to do this by adding a
2556
2557 640
2558 00:45:34,499 ~-~-> 00:45:35,129
2559 chart here.
2560
2561 641
2562 00:45:42,510 ~-~-> 00:45:45,540
2563 Okay, so now if we see the open interest in current increase
2564
2565 642
2566 00:45:45,540 ~-~-> 00:45:49,740
2567 like this, okay, we would expect to see what in the net
2568
2569 643
2570 00:45:49,740 ~-~-> 00:45:54,630
2571 traders decision chart we want to see an increase of net
2572
2573 644
2574 00:45:54,630 ~-~-> 00:45:58,650
2575 short selling or net short position or rapid reduction in
2576
2577 645
2578 00:45:58,650 ~-~-> 00:46:02,760
2579 their net long position. That would confirm this okay as
2580
2581 646
2582 00:46:02,790 ~-~-> 00:46:07,710
2583 commercials themselves doing what? expecting lower prices.
2584
2585 647
2586 00:46:08,820 ~-~-> 00:46:13,230
2587 So we go down here to this add study tab, click on that go
2588
2589 648
2590 00:46:13,230 ~-~-> 00:46:16,920
2591 to commercial commitment traders line chart, add that and
2592
2593 649
2594 00:46:16,920 ~-~-> 00:46:17,340
2595 draw.
2596
2597 650
2598 00:46:22,980 ~-~-> 00:46:30,510
2599 Okay, and you can see here we have the chart noted as we see
2600
2601 651
2602 00:46:30,510 ~-~-> 00:46:33,960
2603 here and you can see the red line here. And we're going to
2604
2605 652
2606 00:46:33,960 ~-~-> 00:46:36,030
2607 change it to one year so you can see a little bit clearer.
2608
2609 653
2610 00:46:37,980 ~-~-> 00:46:42,210
2611 And if by clicking on the one year we'll see that this red
2612
2613 654
2614 00:46:42,210 ~-~-> 00:46:44,880
2615 line here delineates the commercial activity, okay, you can
2616
2617 655
2618 00:46:44,880 ~-~-> 00:46:48,630
2619 see how they rapidly drop down from net long and net short
2620
2621 656
2622 00:46:48,630 ~-~-> 00:46:50,700
2623 while the open interest was increasing. So that was a
2624
2625 657
2626 00:46:50,700 ~-~-> 00:46:54,420
2627 confirmation that we were seeing that short, commercial
2628
2629 658
2630 00:46:54,450 ~-~-> 00:46:58,080
2631 short selling, okay, so if we see both open interest
2632
2633 659
2634 00:46:58,080 ~-~-> 00:47:01,620
2635 increasing like this, and the red line here delineating
2636
2637 660
2638 00:47:01,620 ~-~-> 00:47:04,830
2639 commercial traders. Okay, they went from net long to net
2640
2641 661
2642 00:47:04,830 ~-~-> 00:47:09,030
2643 short going into May. Okay, so we saw this rally as a
2644
2645 662
2646 00:47:09,030 ~-~-> 00:47:14,640
2647 suspect false fake out type of move here and we just ran out
2648
2649 663
2650 00:47:14,640 ~-~-> 00:47:18,330
2651 this old high and then obviously rejected it very harshly.
2652
2653 664
2654 00:47:18,810 ~-~-> 00:47:22,830
2655 Now this was the net short position, okay held by the
2656
2657 665
2658 00:47:22,860 ~-~-> 00:47:25,980
2659 commercial traders expecting the top to form in that British
2660
2661 666
2662 00:47:25,980 ~-~-> 00:47:30,030
2663 Pound at a seasonal time frame when the dollar was poised to
2664
2665 667
2666 00:47:30,030 ~-~-> 00:47:32,850
2667 rally okay and seasonally when the British Pound was
2668
2669 668
2670 00:47:32,850 ~-~-> 00:47:37,980
2671 expected to go lower. Okay, so now we've confirmed two sides
2672
2673 669
2674 00:47:38,040 ~-~-> 00:47:41,850
2675 of the market, the dollar and the British pound. So let's
2676
2677 670
2678 00:47:41,850 ~-~-> 00:47:44,820
2679 see if we can see some support also in the euro.
2680
2681 671
2682 00:47:48,000 ~-~-> 00:47:49,410
2683 So I'm gonna go to this tab here.
2684
2685 672
2686 00:47:50,730 ~-~-> 00:47:54,540
2687 We're gonna go into the Euro FX tab and we're going to use
2688
2689 673
2690 00:47:54,540 ~-~-> 00:48:04,020
2691 the first contract month over to customize Scroll down, and
2692
2693 674
2694 00:48:04,050 ~-~-> 00:48:07,860
2695 we're going to do is make sure we're on candlesticks, we're
2696
2697 675
2698 00:48:07,860 ~-~-> 00:48:09,600
2699 going to use the weekly nearest
2700
2701 676
2702 00:48:11,340 ~-~-> 00:48:12,090
2703 one year
2704
2705 677
2706 00:48:14,070 ~-~-> 00:48:17,340
2707 making sure total volume is clicked, and we're going to draw
2708
2709 678
2710 00:48:17,340 ~-~-> 00:48:26,310
2711 the chart and we will arrive at the euro. Okay, we have the
2712
2713 679
2714 00:48:26,340 ~-~-> 00:48:31,230
2715 march april timeframe in here, notice that the fiber was
2716
2717 680
2718 00:48:31,290 ~-~-> 00:48:34,800
2719 unwilling to make a higher high here. Okay, so we have that
2720
2721 681
2722 00:48:34,800 ~-~-> 00:48:38,340
2723 divergence, okay between the pairs. So we have SMT
2724
2725 682
2726 00:48:38,340 ~-~-> 00:48:42,690
2727 divergence during a seasonal time when we expect the fiber
2728
2729 683
2730 00:48:42,690 ~-~-> 00:48:47,100
2731 and cable to decline. We also expect to see the dollar to
2732
2733 684
2734 00:48:47,100 ~-~-> 00:48:54,360
2735 rally. Okay, so by seeing that we also know that we have a
2736
2737 685
2738 00:48:54,360 ~-~-> 00:48:57,570
2739 trading range in here. Okay, the price is trading in a
2740
2741 686
2742 00:48:57,570 ~-~-> 00:49:01,470
2743 trading range. Okay, so same thing Just inverse relationship
2744
2745 687
2746 00:49:01,470 ~-~-> 00:49:04,260
2747 between the dollar and the euro. Remember, we had the same
2748
2749 688
2750 00:49:04,290 ~-~-> 00:49:07,080
2751 thing happening in the dollar. During the spring of this
2752
2753 689
2754 00:49:07,080 ~-~-> 00:49:10,800
2755 year in 2012. We saw the dollar ranging and then expected to
2756
2757 690
2758 00:49:10,800 ~-~-> 00:49:13,680
2759 see higher prices because open interest declined. And
2760
2761 691
2762 00:49:13,710 ~-~-> 00:49:18,570
2763 commercial short selling was rapidly reduced. Okay, in the
2764
2765 692
2766 00:49:18,570 ~-~-> 00:49:21,510
2767 dollar, so that's bullish. So we see the same thing,
2768
2769 693
2770 00:49:21,510 ~-~-> 00:49:24,690
2771 hopefully in a mirror image on the fiber. We're in
2772
2773 694
2774 00:49:24,840 ~-~-> 00:49:28,590
2775 consolidation. Okay, April May time period. So between this
2776
2777 695
2778 00:49:28,590 ~-~-> 00:49:31,140
2779 vertical line and this vertical line right in here, okay,
2780
2781 696
2782 00:49:31,140 ~-~-> 00:49:35,490
2783 we're in a range. Notice we saw open interest increasing.
2784
2785 697
2786 00:49:36,060 ~-~-> 00:49:39,660
2787 Okay, that's a nice increase of open interest during a
2788
2789 698
2790 00:49:39,660 ~-~-> 00:49:42,420
2791 timeframe in the year when we would expect to see weaker
2792
2793 699
2794 00:49:42,420 ~-~-> 00:49:45,810
2795 prices. Also, we have optimal trade entry from this high to
2796
2797 700
2798 00:49:45,810 ~-~-> 00:49:48,120
2799 this low trade right up into that the beginning of April.
2800
2801 701
2802 00:49:48,510 ~-~-> 00:49:51,720
2803 Okay, so we now have optimal trade entry during a time when
2804
2805 702
2806 00:49:51,720 ~-~-> 00:49:55,080
2807 we're seasonally weak, and we're expecting firmness in the
2808
2809 703
2810 00:49:55,080 ~-~-> 00:50:01,620
2811 dollar. Okay, and now let's go and add to commercials By co
2812
2813 704
2814 00:50:01,620 ~-~-> 00:50:05,580
2815 T, and Commitment of Traders in line chart, add that click
2816
2817 705
2818 00:50:05,580 ~-~-> 00:50:10,680
2819 draw. Okay, and you can see here
2820
2821 706
2822 00:50:12,449 ~-~-> 00:50:17,759
2823 we had the reduction. Okay, in other words we had
2824
2825 707
2826 00:50:19,980 ~-~-> 00:50:21,510
2827 open interest increasing here.
2828
2829 708
2830 00:50:22,770 ~-~-> 00:50:28,830
2831 Wow, we also saw the commercials in this case actually
2832
2833 709
2834 00:50:28,830 ~-~-> 00:50:33,060
2835 adding a little bit of their net longs in here. Okay. They
2836
2837 710
2838 00:50:33,060 ~-~-> 00:50:36,540
2839 were already net long above the zero line here. So they were
2840
2841 711
2842 00:50:37,290 ~-~-> 00:50:42,720
2843 all along here, basically trying to catch this low here. So
2844
2845 712
2846 00:50:42,720 ~-~-> 00:50:45,870
2847 they're buying all this decline from this high down lower.
2848
2849 713
2850 00:50:46,500 ~-~-> 00:50:52,620
2851 So when price started to whip lower below this low here at
2852
2853 714
2854 00:50:52,620 ~-~-> 00:50:55,980
2855 that very moment between April and May, there was really no
2856
2857 715
2858 00:50:56,610 ~-~-> 00:51:00,600
2859 increase of selling. In fact, they're actually buying more
2860
2861 716
2862 00:51:00,600 ~-~-> 00:51:05,310
2863 of it in here. Okay, so it's in this example, it acts much
2864
2865 717
2866 00:51:05,310 ~-~-> 00:51:10,410
2867 like the SMT, where we have the information in the cable and
2868
2869 718
2870 00:51:10,410 ~-~-> 00:51:14,190
2871 the dollar, but don't see it. We don't really see it here.
2872
2873 719
2874 00:51:14,490 ~-~-> 00:51:20,190
2875 Okay. We've been maintaining a very large network long
2876
2877 720
2878 00:51:20,190 ~-~-> 00:51:23,730
2879 position on commercials. Let's go and pull up three years
2880
2881 721
2882 00:51:23,730 ~-~-> 00:51:24,840
2883 ago, and you'll see what I mean.
2884
2885 722
2886 00:51:30,389 ~-~-> 00:51:33,269
2887 You can see that we've had a net long position by the
2888
2889 723
2890 00:51:33,269 ~-~-> 00:51:38,879
2891 commercials for a very long time. And while we did drop down
2892
2893 724
2894 00:51:38,939 ~-~-> 00:51:42,689
2895 in here, there was no real indication that there was
2896
2897 725
2898 00:51:42,719 ~-~-> 00:51:48,629
2899 additional short selling here. Okay, they were lessening
2900
2901 726
2902 00:51:48,629 ~-~-> 00:51:52,379
2903 their Long's here going into April. So that's the insight
2904
2905 727
2906 00:51:52,379 ~-~-> 00:51:55,919
2907 legally, not necessarily this one here. So we did lose some
2908
2909 728
2910 00:51:55,919 ~-~-> 00:51:58,619
2911 net longs here. So we have confirmation in that regard, but
2912
2913 729
2914 00:51:58,619 ~-~-> 00:52:03,749
2915 between April May There was nothing to indicate the movement
2916
2917 730
2918 00:52:04,589 ~-~-> 00:52:07,619
2919 was confirmed between commercials and open interest at that
2920
2921 731
2922 00:52:07,619 ~-~-> 00:52:12,329
2923 particular moment. But if you look at this scale that we
2924
2925 732
2926 00:52:12,329 ~-~-> 00:52:18,479
2927 have here on the three year, you see how we had open
2928
2929 733
2930 00:52:18,479 ~-~-> 00:52:21,779
2931 interest increasing and here we had open interest increasing
2932
2933 734
2934 00:52:21,779 ~-~-> 00:52:26,549
2935 in here. While we saw a reduction on the long side, it's
2936
2937 735
2938 00:52:26,549 ~-~-> 00:52:29,489
2939 more or less essentially the same thing. They're lessening
2940
2941 736
2942 00:52:29,489 ~-~-> 00:52:33,389
2943 their Long's. Okay, which is increasing their short
2944
2945 737
2946 00:52:33,389 ~-~-> 00:52:37,529
2947 positions, while open interest increased in here while we're
2948
2949 738
2950 00:52:37,529 ~-~-> 00:52:42,359
2951 in this range. Okay, so that was the catalyst for
2952
2953 739
2954 00:52:42,689 ~-~-> 00:52:45,269
2955 confirmation on the higher timeframe. So while they didn't
2956
2957 740
2958 00:52:45,269 ~-~-> 00:52:49,079
2959 exactly line up between cable and fiber, the both of them
2960
2961 741
2962 00:52:49,109 ~-~-> 00:52:53,279
2963 more or less had the indication going in so fiber was giving
2964
2965 742
2966 00:52:53,279 ~-~-> 00:52:57,359
2967 it up here early. And as you can see, it's also supported
2968
2969 743
2970 00:52:57,359 ~-~-> 00:52:59,279
2971 with the fact that they were unable to make a higher high
2972
2973 744
2974 00:52:59,279 ~-~-> 00:53:05,459
2975 here. In April wind cable was able to do that. Alright. So
2976
2977 745
2978 00:53:05,459 ~-~-> 00:53:09,689
2979 that's one way of applying open interest looking for the
2980
2981 746
2982 00:53:09,689 ~-~-> 00:53:15,029
2983 reduction and increasing of open interest for measuring
2984
2985 747
2986 00:53:15,269 ~-~-> 00:53:17,699
2987 smart money in the form of commercial traders and using the
2988
2989 748
2990 00:53:17,699 ~-~-> 00:53:22,679
2991 co2 graph. And now we had this stage set for weaker prices
2992
2993 749
2994 00:53:23,249 ~-~-> 00:53:27,899
2995 in the spring of 2012. So, now we have more or less the
2996
2997 750
2998 00:53:27,899 ~-~-> 00:53:32,609
2999 large macro view Okay, couple that with the interest rate
3000
3001 751
3002 00:53:32,609 ~-~-> 00:53:37,799
3003 market now, because now we have the CBOT open interest
3004
3005 752
3006 00:53:38,099 ~-~-> 00:53:41,939
3007 supporting the notion that the seasonal tendency for weaker
3008
3009 753
3010 00:53:41,939 ~-~-> 00:53:46,859
3011 Cabling and Fiber and higher dollar in the spring, we see
3012
3013 754
3014 00:53:46,859 ~-~-> 00:53:54,119
3015 that also supporting the interest rate insights that we've
3016
3017 755
3018 00:53:54,119 ~-~-> 00:53:58,709
3019 already looked at, and now we have a sell program. Okay in
3020
3021 756
3022 00:53:58,709 ~-~-> 00:54:03,539
3023 place now we can look for sure We can start selling, okay,
3024
3025 757
3026 00:54:04,319 ~-~-> 00:54:11,639
3027 for short position going into the summer months. Okay, we're
3028
3029 758
3030 00:54:11,639 ~-~-> 00:54:14,789
3031 looking at the Dollar Index. This is a daily chart, and
3032
3033 759
3034 00:54:14,789 ~-~-> 00:54:19,679
3035 we're zoomed in to the April month of 2012. And we're
3036
3037 760
3038 00:54:19,679 ~-~-> 00:54:25,619
3039 looking at this, again, seasonal tendency for the market to
3040
3041 761
3042 00:54:26,429 ~-~-> 00:54:29,999
3043 decline on the British pound and usually be a risk off
3044
3045 762
3046 00:54:29,999 ~-~-> 00:54:35,069
3047 scenario. And obviously, we'd be looking for a reverse
3048
3049 763
3050 00:54:35,069 ~-~-> 00:54:39,389
3051 scenario which would be bullish for the US dollar. And we
3052
3053 764
3054 00:54:39,779 ~-~-> 00:54:45,179
3055 know that already this swing here. This is optimal trade
3056
3057 765
3058 00:54:45,179 ~-~-> 00:54:48,029
3059 entry in here where price would have been rallying from
3060
3061 766
3062 00:54:48,119 ~-~-> 00:54:50,609
3063 where we would expect to see it rally from and sweetspot
3064
3065 767
3066 00:54:50,609 ~-~-> 00:54:57,449
3067 comes in at 178 85. So this would be a catalyst for upside,
3068
3069 768
3070 00:54:57,929 ~-~-> 00:55:03,149
3071 momentum for the dollar. Looking for this old high and this
3072
3073 769
3074 00:55:03,149 ~-~-> 00:55:08,369
3075 old high as upside objectives. At the same time that this is
3076
3077 770
3078 00:55:08,729 ~-~-> 00:55:14,579
3079 occurring, we expect to see weakness in the stock indices to
3080
3081 771
3082 00:55:14,579 ~-~-> 00:55:19,679
3083 end participate a risk off scenario. We saw the Dow this
3084
3085 772
3086 00:55:19,679 ~-~-> 00:55:24,989
3087 year in April make a very modestly higher high here. And
3088
3089 773
3090 00:55:24,989 ~-~-> 00:55:27,689
3091 this little rectangle is delineating the month of April as
3092
3093 774
3094 00:55:27,689 ~-~-> 00:55:32,039
3095 well. So we see a modestly higher high here, but let's look
3096
3097 775
3098 00:55:32,039 ~-~-> 00:55:37,019
3099 at the daily on the s&p the same timeframe. We have a lower
3100
3101 776
3102 00:55:37,049 ~-~-> 00:55:40,259
3103 high okay see that now we already have SMT divergence
3104
3105 777
3106 00:55:40,259 ~-~-> 00:55:44,159
3107 between the stock indices and obviously the NASDAQ Composite
3108
3109 778
3110 00:55:44,159 ~-~-> 00:55:49,949
3111 Index also, that same month was a built to post a lower high
3112
3113 779
3114 00:55:50,129 ~-~-> 00:55:54,179
3115 Okay, so we have SMT divergence indicating that we have
3116
3117 780
3118 00:55:54,449 ~-~-> 00:55:58,109
3119 underlying weakness. Okay, in other words, is this rally up
3120
3121 781
3122 00:55:58,109 ~-~-> 00:56:02,729
3123 into April May time period Stock averages we're not able to
3124
3125 782
3126 00:56:02,729 ~-~-> 00:56:05,549
3127 confirm one another. So Dow theory suggests that there's
3128
3129 783
3130 00:56:05,549 ~-~-> 00:56:10,649
3131 probably waning momentum and don't be so aggressive in terms
3132
3133 784
3134 00:56:10,649 ~-~-> 00:56:12,899
3135 of mine because you may be seeing a withdraw or a
3136
3137 785
3138 00:56:12,899 ~-~-> 00:56:19,499
3139 retracement lower. Let's go back to the dollar. Okay, and
3140
3141 786
3142 00:56:19,799 ~-~-> 00:56:25,049
3143 let's look at what happened from that point. Okay, you see,
3144
3145 787
3146 00:56:25,079 ~-~-> 00:56:32,669
3147 obviously the dollars have rallied or not from this high
3148
3149 788
3150 00:56:34,620 ~-~-> 00:56:38,970
3151 in this low here, this range, okay, if we look at just that
3152
3153 789
3154 00:56:42,240 ~-~-> 00:56:48,570
3155 we can get some upside objectives for the dollar. Okay, and
3156
3157 790
3158 00:56:48,570 ~-~-> 00:56:51,840
3159 what we're doing is we're looking for obviously, objectives,
3160
3161 791
3162 00:56:52,470 ~-~-> 00:56:56,430
3163 looking for potential areas where price may shoot to, here's
3164
3165 792
3166 00:56:56,430 ~-~-> 00:57:01,680
3167 the 162 extension and a 200 extension here. Okay, now once
3168
3169 793
3170 00:57:01,680 ~-~-> 00:57:06,870
3171 price broke above this high this swing okay is fine you can
3172
3173 794
3174 00:57:06,870 ~-~-> 00:57:08,970
3175 still use those targets but we got to go to the left side of
3176
3177 795
3178 00:57:08,970 ~-~-> 00:57:12,150
3179 the chart and look at the larger magnitude price swing that
3180
3181 796
3182 00:57:12,150 ~-~-> 00:57:15,540
3183 we're working with instead it's this high to this low so we
3184
3185 797
3186 00:57:15,540 ~-~-> 00:57:21,540
3187 will use our fib tool from that high and pull it down to the
3188
3189 798
3190 00:57:21,540 ~-~-> 00:57:27,660
3191 lowest low in that fractal Okay, so we have this high down
3192
3193 799
3194 00:57:27,660 ~-~-> 00:57:31,230
3195 to this low and we will be looking for the 127 extension for
3196
3197 800
3198 00:57:31,230 ~-~-> 00:57:35,310
3199 upside objectives here and 162 extension which nails the
3200
3201 801
3202 00:57:35,310 ~-~-> 00:57:38,790
3203 high here and moving forward you can see the dollar had
3204
3205 802
3206 00:57:39,090 ~-~-> 00:57:42,990
3207 slipped off precipitously from that point. Now we can see
3208
3209 803
3210 00:57:42,990 ~-~-> 00:57:46,890
3211 hopefully here the value of using a higher macro view
3212
3213 804
3214 00:57:47,310 ~-~-> 00:57:51,720
3215 analysis approach to your trading. And if you see this type
3216
3217 805
3218 00:57:51,720 ~-~-> 00:57:54,960
3219 of event unfolding in the dollar, the same thing should be
3220
3221 806
3222 00:57:54,960 ~-~-> 00:57:59,040
3223 happening in the reverse okay on the downside on your other
3224
3225 807
3226 00:57:59,040 ~-~-> 00:58:03,360
3227 asset classes and Let's look at the daily on the Dow Jones.
3228
3229 808
3230 00:58:04,830 ~-~-> 00:58:08,430
3231 We saw price obviously slip lower as well, okay, confirming
3232
3233 809
3234 00:58:08,430 ~-~-> 00:58:13,740
3235 that upward momentum in the dollar. The s&p 500 also broke
3236
3237 810
3238 00:58:13,740 ~-~-> 00:58:18,660
3239 down and slipped lower and the NASDAQ composite, not
3240
3241 811
3242 00:58:18,660 ~-~-> 00:58:23,880
3243 surprising, slipped lower as well. Now let's look at the
3244
3245 812
3246 00:58:23,910 ~-~-> 00:58:27,420
3247 fiber. Okay, and what I have here is the April month
3248
3249 813
3250 00:58:27,420 ~-~-> 00:58:30,000
3251 delineate between the two red vertical lines, okay, and
3252
3253 814
3254 00:58:30,000 ~-~-> 00:58:33,090
3255 we're looking at the fact that we were unable to make a
3256
3257 815
3258 00:58:33,090 ~-~-> 00:58:36,600
3259 higher high here. Okay, and just for a second, let's shoot
3260
3261 816
3262 00:58:36,600 ~-~-> 00:58:40,440
3263 over to the cable. You can see how in that same time frame
3264
3265 817
3266 00:58:40,440 ~-~-> 00:58:43,680
3267 in the month of April, the cable was willing and able to
3268
3269 818
3270 00:58:43,680 ~-~-> 00:58:47,790
3271 make a higher high. Okay, so let's go back to the fiber for
3272
3273 819
3274 00:58:47,790 ~-~-> 00:58:54,360
3275 a second. This is market absolutely posted weaker technicals
3276
3277 820
3278 00:58:54,570 ~-~-> 00:58:56,790
3279 across the board. In other words, between the two pairs,
3280
3281 821
3282 00:58:57,090 ~-~-> 00:58:59,340
3283 fiber and cable because they're so closely correlated, they
3284
3285 822
3286 00:58:59,340 ~-~-> 00:59:03,390
3287 usually trade and To the but as you can see here, the SMP
3288
3289 823
3290 00:59:03,390 ~-~-> 00:59:07,800
3291 divergence correlated pair s&p divergence was showing that
3292
3293 824
3294 00:59:07,800 ~-~-> 00:59:11,580
3295 there was absolutely no interest whatsoever going along in
3296
3297 825
3298 00:59:11,580 ~-~-> 00:59:15,810
3299 the fiber. And if you recall back in when I was doing
3300
3301 826
3302 00:59:15,810 ~-~-> 00:59:18,810
3303 reviews, we were talking about this market being the weaker
3304
3305 827
3306 00:59:18,840 ~-~-> 00:59:22,110
3307 of the sisters all during this particular timeframe and this
3308
3309 828
3310 00:59:22,110 ~-~-> 00:59:26,280
3311 is really the catalyst from my my viewpoints while I was
3312
3313 829
3314 00:59:26,280 ~-~-> 00:59:29,580
3315 saying it real time in advance for the markets were trading.
3316
3317 830
3318 00:59:30,060 ~-~-> 00:59:34,230
3319 We were looking for this old low to be traded to back in
3320
3321 831
3322 00:59:34,230 ~-~-> 00:59:40,110
3323 here. Okay, so and also back here as well. Now, this high in
3324
3325 832
3326 00:59:40,110 ~-~-> 00:59:43,470
3327 this high here, notice that we were lower here. Okay, so we
3328
3329 833
3330 00:59:43,470 ~-~-> 00:59:49,020
3331 have February's high and April's high lower in the fiber.
3332
3333 834
3334 00:59:49,380 ~-~-> 00:59:53,070
3335 Let's go over to the cable. Notice we were going higher in
3336
3337 835
3338 00:59:53,070 ~-~-> 00:59:56,580
3339 the cable. Here's February is high in April's high so we
3340
3341 836
3342 00:59:56,580 ~-~-> 00:59:59,190
3343 were posting higher highs in the cable. This was the
3344
3345 837
3346 00:59:59,190 ~-~-> 01:00:02,550
3347 relatively ronger of the two pairs. So when there was a
3348
3349 838
3350 01:00:02,550 ~-~-> 01:00:06,090
3351 buying opportunity, we could be buying in here. Okay, and be
3352
3353 839
3354 01:00:06,090 ~-~-> 01:00:09,870
3355 more confident that the market is going to be more favorable
3356
3357 840
3358 01:00:09,870 ~-~-> 01:00:13,470
3359 for us as a bowl if we're short term trader, but we're
3360
3361 841
3362 01:00:13,470 ~-~-> 01:00:16,770
3363 focusing on the higher timeframe, intermediate term basis.
3364
3365 842
3366 01:00:16,770 ~-~-> 01:00:21,030
3367 So we're looking for what the sell scenario and that being
3368
3369 843
3370 01:00:21,030 ~-~-> 01:00:25,380
3371 the case with the fiber, okay, so you could look to sell
3372
3373 844
3374 01:00:25,380 ~-~-> 01:00:29,100
3375 this market here, going into the seasonal timeframe
3376
3377 845
3378 01:00:30,600 ~-~-> 01:00:31,500
3379 from this high
3380
3381 846
3382 01:00:33,239 ~-~-> 01:00:36,509
3383 and the low you can see we have optimal trade entry in here.
3384
3385 847
3386 01:00:37,079 ~-~-> 01:00:39,959
3387 And price did slide off the
3388
3389 848
3390 01:00:42,570 ~-~-> 01:00:45,000
3391 cable at that same timeframe.
3392
3393 849
3394 01:00:46,860 ~-~-> 01:00:54,120
3395 We had a larger price swing from this high down to this low
3396
3397 850
3398 01:00:54,270 ~-~-> 01:00:56,460
3399 that the cable was retracing in.
3400
3401 851
3402 01:00:58,650 ~-~-> 01:00:59,910
3403 Okay, so let's pull that up.
3404
3405 852
3406 01:01:02,429 ~-~-> 01:01:06,389
3407 You can see here's the sweet spot. Okay, here's a 70.5 fib
3408
3409 853
3410 01:01:06,389 ~-~-> 01:01:10,379
3411 level price went right to that level exactly to that level.
3412
3413 854
3414 01:01:10,559 ~-~-> 01:01:15,329
3415 Okay. And I posted market review and a daily review
3416
3417 855
3418 01:01:15,359 ~-~-> 01:01:19,499
3419 suggesting that I would be shorting at 163 a break above
3420
3421 856
3422 01:01:19,499 ~-~-> 01:01:25,709
3423 163. Figure. Okay, so if you go back to that timeframe, and
3424
3425 857
3426 01:01:25,709 ~-~-> 01:01:28,289
3427 look at the videos, you'll actually see me talk about being
3428
3429 858
3430 01:01:28,289 ~-~-> 01:01:31,469
3431 short here. And this is the reason why we're within that
3432
3433 859
3434 01:01:31,469 ~-~-> 01:01:35,939
3435 April time period for seasonally expecting a decline. Okay,
3436
3437 860
3438 01:01:36,389 ~-~-> 01:01:41,249
3439 we went up into a higher timeframe. implied resistance
3440
3441 861
3442 01:01:41,249 ~-~-> 01:01:45,239
3443 level, we're at a figure 163 Okay, so even though we were
3444
3445 862
3446 01:01:45,239 ~-~-> 01:01:49,739
3447 bullish compared to the fiber comparably, we are still
3448
3449 863
3450 01:01:49,739 ~-~-> 01:01:53,129
3451 within a timeframe when the price itself should be running
3452
3453 864
3454 01:01:53,129 ~-~-> 01:01:55,979
3455 out of steam. And when we get to these levels like this, so
3456
3457 865
3458 01:01:55,979 ~-~-> 01:01:59,489
3459 far, deep into a retracement of these price swings, you got
3460
3461 866
3462 01:01:59,489 ~-~-> 01:02:02,279
3463 to expect weakness. So now let's look at what's happening
3464
3465 867
3466 01:02:02,279 ~-~-> 01:02:07,019
3467 here. Also, we have the high APR and the high it may tire in
3468
3469 868
3470 01:02:07,019 ~-~-> 01:02:09,659
3471 the cable. Let's go back to the dollar.
3472
3473 869
3474 01:02:13,139 ~-~-> 01:02:14,159
3475 Look what's happening here.
3476
3477 870
3478 01:02:15,750 ~-~-> 01:02:22,350
3479 We have lower, albeit not by much, we have a lower low here
3480
3481 871
3482 01:02:22,560 ~-~-> 01:02:29,070
3483 than here. Okay, so the dollar was lower. The cable confirms
3484
3485 872
3486 01:02:29,070 ~-~-> 01:02:34,470
3487 it higher. But let's go back to fiber. See this?
3488
3489 873
3490 01:02:35,790 ~-~-> 01:02:36,690
3491 There's a USD
3492
3493 874
3494 01:02:38,400 ~-~-> 01:02:43,350
3495 USD x SMT diversions. Okay. So this tells you that you have
3496
3497 875
3498 01:02:43,350 ~-~-> 01:02:48,690
3499 a very, very large price swing, possibly unfolding going
3500
3501 876
3502 01:02:48,690 ~-~-> 01:02:52,080
3503 forward. This tells you that it's going to be bearish for
3504
3505 877
3506 01:02:52,080 ~-~-> 01:02:56,940
3507 the fiber. Okay, and since tandem trading occurs in cable
3508
3509 878
3510 01:02:56,940 ~-~-> 01:03:00,000
3511 and fiber generally and you're looking for higher prices.
3512
3513 879
3514 01:03:00,000 ~-~-> 01:03:03,720
3515 The dollar, you can get yourself in sync with a very, very
3516
3517 880
3518 01:03:03,720 ~-~-> 01:03:08,490
3519 handsome enemy it turns short. And looking at this high
3520
3521 881
3522 01:03:08,490 ~-~-> 01:03:15,240
3523 here, down to this low in here is a sweet spot and price
3524
3525 882
3526 01:03:15,240 ~-~-> 01:03:17,970
3527 went way up to that point by the PIP and then fell out of
3528
3529 883
3530 01:03:17,970 ~-~-> 01:03:21,930
3531 bed. And let's look at what happened here. Price does in
3532
3533 884
3534 01:03:21,930 ~-~-> 01:03:25,590
3535 fact trade down but below this low in fact, small little
3536
3537 885
3538 01:03:25,590 ~-~-> 01:03:30,030
3539 minor bounce in here and then finally broke through. Okay,
3540
3541 886
3542 01:03:30,480 ~-~-> 01:03:35,610
3543 and eventually even traded even lower than that. If you'll
3544
3545 887
3546 01:03:35,610 ~-~-> 01:03:41,280
3547 use the Fibonacci concept we talked about for this plan, we
3548
3549 888
3550 01:03:41,280 ~-~-> 01:03:49,140
3551 look for on 27 extensions, 162 extensions and the 200
3552
3553 889
3554 01:03:49,140 ~-~-> 01:03:53,640
3555 extension. This price swing is what we're going to use going
3556
3557 890
3558 01:03:53,640 ~-~-> 01:03:58,140
3559 lower. Okay, so if you use this low, up to this high once
3560
3561 891
3562 01:03:58,170 ~-~-> 01:04:01,410
3563 price structure, I'm sorry, my Structure breaks this low
3564
3565 892
3566 01:04:01,410 ~-~-> 01:04:04,200
3567 here, you're gonna be looking for the 127 extension, which
3568
3569 893
3570 01:04:04,200 ~-~-> 01:04:07,230
3571 it finds here handsome land bounces, and looking even gives
3572
3573 894
3574 01:04:07,230 ~-~-> 01:04:10,050
3575 you another optimal trade entry to get short. Okay? This is
3576
3577 895
3578 01:04:10,500 ~-~-> 01:04:14,010
3579 we're jumping ahead really so the short term trading part of
3580
3581 896
3582 01:04:14,010 ~-~-> 01:04:18,300
3583 the series but price does give it a correction here trades
3584
3585 897
3586 01:04:18,300 ~-~-> 01:04:22,560
3587 right up into old support broken now resistance falls out of
3588
3589 898
3590 01:04:22,560 ~-~-> 01:04:27,900
3591 bed and goes what 162 extension and obviously, price had
3592
3593 899
3594 01:04:27,900 ~-~-> 01:04:32,640
3595 snapped away from that rather handsomely. So, getting short
3596
3597 900
3598 01:04:32,640 ~-~-> 01:04:35,490
3599 here on the notion that we are entering into the seasonal
3600
3601 901
3602 01:04:35,760 ~-~-> 01:04:40,590
3603 time period and looking for SNP divergence is one avenue
3604
3605 902
3606 01:04:40,590 ~-~-> 01:04:43,110
3607 here that you could have got short. If you miss this one.
3608
3609 903
3610 01:04:43,110 ~-~-> 01:04:46,800
3611 This was the other opportunity to get short. Okay and right
3612
3613 904
3614 01:04:46,800 ~-~-> 01:04:50,970
3615 at lower, that rather handsome price swing if you look at
3616
3617 905
3618 01:04:50,970 ~-~-> 01:04:55,260
3619 what transpired just from the original high here in April
3620
3621 906
3622 01:04:56,940 ~-~-> 01:05:04,170
3623 down to the 162 extension That's 1200 and 30 pips. Okay? And
3624
3625 907
3626 01:05:04,170 ~-~-> 01:05:10,530
3627 if you got the second entry in here using the first of May
3628
3629 908
3630 01:05:10,530 ~-~-> 01:05:19,530
3631 area, it's 11 51,150 pips. Okay, so not bad in terms of, you
3632
3633 909
3634 01:05:19,530 ~-~-> 01:05:22,830
3635 know, pitfalls takes a little bit of time to get these guys
3636
3637 910
3638 01:05:22,860 ~-~-> 01:05:25,830
3639 it doesn't happen overnight but you got to really hold on to
3640
3641 911
3642 01:05:25,830 ~-~-> 01:05:28,410
3643 it and just have a lot of patience with them unfolding. If
3644
3645 912
3646 01:05:28,410 ~-~-> 01:05:33,420
3647 you look at the cable once price gets up into this inside
3648
3649 913
3650 01:05:33,420 ~-~-> 01:05:40,500
3651 the range concept, the sweet spot 163 is a big figure as
3652
3653 914
3654 01:05:40,500 ~-~-> 01:05:44,250
3655 well. We are still within that April seasonal decline time
3656
3657 915
3658 01:05:44,250 ~-~-> 01:05:49,140
3659 period. We have us dx SMT we have correlated pair SMT weaker
3660
3661 916
3662 01:05:49,290 ~-~-> 01:05:53,220
3663 highs comparable to the higher high in the cable here. So
3664
3665 917
3666 01:05:53,220 ~-~-> 01:05:58,260
3667 now what's what's going on in the lower timeframe? Okay,
3668
3669 918
3670 01:05:58,260 ~-~-> 01:06:04,920
3671 let's let's let's use A hourly chart. Okay, here's what's
3672
3673 919
3674 01:06:04,920 ~-~-> 01:06:11,010
3675 happening price trades up into that 163 figure trades off,
3676
3677 920
3678 01:06:11,430 ~-~-> 01:06:15,870
3679 okay? Now as price trades lower like that, okay comes down
3680
3681 921
3682 01:06:15,870 ~-~-> 01:06:21,090
3683 into that one that 62% level here on a higher timeframe
3684
3685 922
3686 01:06:21,090 ~-~-> 01:06:24,240
3687 pricing finds a little bit short term support level
3688
3689 923
3690 01:06:26,400 ~-~-> 01:06:29,100
3691 eventually breaks down below and looking comes right back up
3692
3693 924
3694 01:06:29,100 ~-~-> 01:06:35,280
3695 to that same level here again, see what it does here runs
3696
3697 925
3698 01:06:35,280 ~-~-> 01:06:38,280
3699 into it as resistance and in slides away.
3700
3701 926
3702 01:06:40,739 ~-~-> 01:06:48,389
3703 Again, aggressive move lower. Okay, now let's add to this
3704
3705 927
3706 01:06:50,850 ~-~-> 01:06:56,160
3707 the day separators. Okay. Now, if you missed the shorting
3708
3709 928
3710 01:06:56,160 ~-~-> 01:07:01,560
3711 straight up into the 163 figure, okay. You have a Short term
3712
3713 929
3714 01:07:02,160 ~-~-> 01:07:08,280
3715 high here, we have a higher high here, lower high here and a
3716
3717 930
3718 01:07:08,280 ~-~-> 01:07:10,770
3719 lower high here. So this is a daily swing point this high,
3720
3721 931
3722 01:07:10,800 ~-~-> 01:07:14,010
3723 this lower low, I'm sorry, lower high and lower high here,
3724
3725 932
3726 01:07:14,190 ~-~-> 01:07:16,980
3727 okay, so we do have swing point here. So now we could be
3728
3729 933
3730 01:07:16,980 ~-~-> 01:07:21,810
3731 looking to get short beyond that point in here. Okay, you
3732
3733 934
3734 01:07:21,810 ~-~-> 01:07:27,210
3735 can use optimal trade entries. You can use reflections,
3736
3737 935
3738 01:07:27,240 ~-~-> 01:07:31,350
3739 anything that you use to trade on your pattern, that's you
3740
3741 936
3742 01:07:31,350 ~-~-> 01:07:38,340
3743 start hunting, okay, and we also have a higher price swing
3744
3745 937
3746 01:07:38,340 ~-~-> 01:07:41,910
3747 point on a weekly basis. Okay, see these double lines here
3748
3749 938
3750 01:07:42,840 ~-~-> 01:07:43,650
3751 and here.
3752
3753 939
3754 01:07:45,690 ~-~-> 01:07:46,200
3755 And here.
3756
3757 940
3758 01:07:47,790 ~-~-> 01:07:52,350
3759 We have the high of that week. So between this double set
3760
3761 941
3762 01:07:52,350 ~-~-> 01:07:54,810
3763 and this double set, the highest here, then we have the
3764
3765 942
3766 01:07:54,810 ~-~-> 01:07:58,110
3767 higher here, between these two, and then we have the high
3768
3769 943
3770 01:07:58,110 ~-~-> 01:08:02,700
3771 here between this set In this set, so what is that? That is
3772
3773 944
3774 01:08:02,700 ~-~-> 01:08:08,790
3775 a weekly swing high. So we have the high, lower high and
3776
3777 945
3778 01:08:08,790 ~-~-> 01:08:12,480
3779 lower high. pull that up on your own weekly chart, you'll
3780
3781 946
3782 01:08:12,480 ~-~-> 01:08:16,980
3783 see what I'm referring to. Now when you have that, also,
3784
3785 947
3786 01:08:17,190 ~-~-> 01:08:21,660
3787 okay, that's when you have the acceleration in the price
3788
3789 948
3790 01:08:21,660 ~-~-> 01:08:25,470
3791 movement much, much more aggressively moving lower. Okay.
3792
3793 949
3794 01:08:25,830 ~-~-> 01:08:31,830
3795 And when we see the high, low, lower high here on the new
3796
3797 950
3798 01:08:31,830 ~-~-> 01:08:36,180
3799 week, okay going into Monday and Tuesday, using the how to
3800
3801 951
3802 01:08:36,180 ~-~-> 01:08:40,260
3803 catch explosive profits in the Forex concept we used in that
3804
3805 952
3806 01:08:40,410 ~-~-> 01:08:46,080
3807 video. You're looking for Monday to Tuesday's London open to
3808
3809 953
3810 01:08:46,110 ~-~-> 01:08:49,380
3811 four different not present you the high of The Week. This is
3812
3813 954
3814 01:08:49,380 ~-~-> 01:08:53,730
3815 where this takes place we have Sunday trading Monday runs up
3816
3817 955
3818 01:08:53,760 ~-~-> 01:08:57,270
3819 okay and it makes the high on Monday and then trades off now
3820
3821 956
3822 01:08:57,270 ~-~-> 01:09:00,780
3823 if you miss that that's fine. Don't Don't Case price you
3824
3825 957
3826 01:09:00,780 ~-~-> 01:09:03,690
3827 don't need you don't need to worry about rushing into it.
3828
3829 958
3830 01:09:04,590 ~-~-> 01:09:09,240
3831 Once you have now a daily and weekly swing high, you can use
3832
3833 959
3834 01:09:09,240 ~-~-> 01:09:14,310
3835 the high down to this low here. And look what you have. You
3836
3837 960
3838 01:09:14,310 ~-~-> 01:09:19,260
3839 have the 79 seven treatment level laying directly on top of
3840
3841 961
3842 01:09:19,650 ~-~-> 01:09:24,840
3843 this higher timeframe fib level that we just drew off the
3844
3845 962
3846 01:09:24,840 ~-~-> 01:09:29,670
3847 daily. Okay, that's the 62% retracement level on the daily
3848
3849 963
3850 01:09:31,199 ~-~-> 01:09:32,939
3851 and now we have overlapping fibs.
3852
3853 964
3854 01:09:38,670 ~-~-> 01:09:43,110
3855 One, a one hour chart conversion rates here for a optimal
3856
3857 965
3858 01:09:43,110 ~-~-> 01:09:47,340
3859 trade entry. This is a nice sucker rally. It gets everybody
3860
3861 966
3862 01:09:47,340 ~-~-> 01:09:52,560
3863 excited chasing it but this time of day is New York open so
3864
3865 967
3866 01:09:52,560 ~-~-> 01:09:55,020
3867 you could be selling in New York open to get in sync with
3868
3869 968
3870 01:09:55,020 ~-~-> 01:09:58,350
3871 the higher timeframe and then ride it lower. Okay and
3872
3873 969
3874 01:09:58,380 ~-~-> 01:10:04,260
3875 positioned there. You can see rather handsome declines. And
3876
3877 970
3878 01:10:07,980 ~-~-> 01:10:10,620
3879 these are the moves that you want to hold on to dooring
3880
3881 971
3882 01:10:11,070 ~-~-> 01:10:16,380
3883 enemy term price swing for our chart, and this is that
3884
3885 972
3886 01:10:16,410 ~-~-> 01:10:20,940
3887 opportunity for seasonal decline in April here. And this is
3888
3889 973
3890 01:10:20,940 ~-~-> 01:10:24,330
3891 that lower high going into the beginning of April. If you
3892
3893 974
3894 01:10:24,330 ~-~-> 01:10:29,940
3895 use the high here and price trades down. If you look at the
3896
3897 975
3898 01:10:29,940 ~-~-> 01:10:34,920
3899 high here, pull it down to that low. You see how price goes
3900
3901 976
3902 01:10:34,920 ~-~-> 01:10:38,010
3903 we have to set nitration level and stays there for a little
3904
3905 977
3906 01:10:38,010 ~-~-> 01:10:43,170
3907 bit and it finally breaks down. Okay. Notice also that we
3908
3909 978
3910 01:10:43,170 ~-~-> 01:10:48,030
3911 have smaller optimal trade entries in that same area. And
3912
3913 979
3914 01:10:48,030 ~-~-> 01:10:51,270
3915 you have a here as well here this high, low in here and it
3916
3917 980
3918 01:10:51,270 ~-~-> 01:10:54,240
3919 breaks down. See, this is why you have to understand how
3920
3921 981
3922 01:10:54,240 ~-~-> 01:10:59,520
3923 price can be fractal. Okay? It's not it's not a hard
3924
3925 982
3926 01:10:59,520 ~-~-> 01:11:01,590
3927 concept. To learn if you spend some time with it but you
3928
3929 983
3930 01:11:01,590 ~-~-> 01:11:04,080
3931 have to definitely go through high timeframe charts and
3932
3933 984
3934 01:11:04,080 ~-~-> 01:11:06,210
3935 start breaking them down and looking at specific turning
3936
3937 985
3938 01:11:06,210 ~-~-> 01:11:13,050
3939 points. The actual seasonal month that we're we're
3940
3941 986
3942 01:11:13,290 ~-~-> 01:11:19,500
3943 highlighting here is if if you look at the high here to this
3944
3945 987
3946 01:11:19,500 ~-~-> 01:11:22,110
3947 low, okay and the reason why I'm pulling is because these
3948
3949 988
3950 01:11:22,110 ~-~-> 01:11:25,050
3951 are the highest high amongst all these candles, and this is
3952
3953 989
3954 01:11:25,050 ~-~-> 01:11:28,170
3955 the lowest low amongst all these candles, okay, and price
3956
3957 990
3958 01:11:28,170 ~-~-> 01:11:31,560
3959 goes right back up to the sweet spot, which is an
3960
3961 991
3962 01:11:31,560 ~-~-> 01:11:36,720
3963 overlapping of this higher timeframe fib level in here.
3964
3965 992
3966 01:11:37,350 ~-~-> 01:11:40,020
3967 Okay, so you can see how that converges. So you can get
3968
3969 993
3970 01:11:40,020 ~-~-> 01:11:44,580
3971 short in here, one, even the 132 50 level would have been a
3972
3973 994
3974 01:11:44,580 ~-~-> 01:11:49,560
3975 nice opportunity to get short here and go much lower. So
3976
3977 995
3978 01:11:49,650 ~-~-> 01:11:53,340
3979 again, much in the same vein that we showed with the cable.
3980
3981 996
3982 01:11:54,120 ~-~-> 01:11:57,450
3983 You can see how price did fall rather handsomely
3984
3985 997
3986 01:11:58,710 ~-~-> 01:11:59,910
3987 in the fiber
3988
3989 998
3990 01:12:01,230 ~-~-> 01:12:04,620
3991 Again, here's that bounce at an old low, came up and gave
3992
3993 999
3994 01:12:04,620 ~-~-> 01:12:06,120
3995 you the optimal trade entry in here.
3996
3997 1000
3998 01:12:07,710 ~-~-> 01:12:08,640
3999 And we'll just do that.
4000
4001 1001
4002 01:12:11,010 ~-~-> 01:12:13,500
4003 draw that in here real quick, just for sake of completion,
4004
4005 1002
4006 01:12:14,040 ~-~-> 01:12:17,430
4007 and say nice, decent level in here. And you're down to our
4008
4009 1003
4010 01:12:17,490 ~-~-> 01:12:20,940
4011 five minute chart, you can actually see, I'll trade entry in
4012
4013 1004
4014 01:12:20,940 ~-~-> 01:12:23,490
4015 here on this smaller minor price swing. So again, another
4016
4017 1005
4018 01:12:23,520 ~-~-> 01:12:26,910
4019 fractal pattern, within higher timeframe fractal that's
4020
4021 1006
4022 01:12:26,910 ~-~-> 01:12:29,430
4023 broken down to a smaller factor, which is, you know, what
4024
4025 1007
4026 01:12:29,430 ~-~-> 01:12:35,130
4027 we're showing here. So even even looking at how price breaks
4028
4029 1008
4030 01:12:35,130 ~-~-> 01:12:38,490
4031 down from these larger enemies from price swings, and then
4032
4033 1009
4034 01:12:38,490 ~-~-> 01:12:41,670
4035 162 extension, lookout doesn't give you much in terms of
4036
4037 1010
4038 01:12:41,700 ~-~-> 01:12:45,930
4039 movement below that before it snaps away. Okay. Now, if you
4040
4041 1011
4042 01:12:45,930 ~-~-> 01:12:50,310
4043 held on to it and it breaks this high here, once price runs
4044
4045 1012
4046 01:12:50,310 ~-~-> 01:12:54,240
4047 above that, you have now break or market structure shift.
4048
4049 1013
4050 01:12:54,630 ~-~-> 01:12:56,910
4051 Okay? So you don't want to just collapse the trade there.
4052
4053 1014
4054 01:12:57,030 ~-~-> 01:12:59,970
4055 You want to wait for the chart to retest and get back down
4056
4057 1015
4058 01:13:00,000 ~-~-> 01:13:04,650
4059 These lows and by using another optimal trade entry, okay,
4060
4061 1016
4062 01:13:04,680 ~-~-> 01:13:08,160
4063 you can see a better place to cover your short instead of
4064
4065 1017
4066 01:13:08,190 ~-~-> 01:13:10,860
4067 getting out here and panicking, you can get out down here at
4068
4069 1018
4070 01:13:10,860 ~-~-> 01:13:15,450
4071 the 162 extension and then obviously price starts to move
4072
4073 1019
4074 01:13:15,450 ~-~-> 01:13:17,430
4075 away from that. Okay, so
4076
4077 1020
4078 01:13:19,980 ~-~-> 01:13:21,150
4079 that's what looked
4080
4081 1021
4082 01:13:23,100 ~-~-> 01:13:27,720
4083 at you in April staring you right in the mug, okay for for
4084
4085 1022
4086 01:13:27,720 ~-~-> 01:13:31,500
4087 long term intermediate term price swings. And if you look at
4088
4089 1023
4090 01:13:31,500 ~-~-> 01:13:37,050
4091 how the tools or macro view really help you get in sync with
4092
4093 1024
4094 01:13:37,050 ~-~-> 01:13:40,770
4095 these trends is going to use a simple short term analysis
4096
4097 1025
4098 01:13:40,770 ~-~-> 01:13:44,430
4099 concepts to get you in the trades, Judas swings, intraday
4100
4101 1026
4102 01:13:44,460 ~-~-> 01:13:47,790
4103 optimal trade entries using the weekly concept of looking
4104
4105 1027
4106 01:13:47,790 ~-~-> 01:13:51,930
4107 for the weekly high Monday to Tuesday's long and open an
4108
4109 1028
4110 01:13:51,930 ~-~-> 01:13:55,890
4111 hour the very latest Wednesday's London open. And if you're
4112
4113 1029
4114 01:13:55,890 ~-~-> 01:14:00,840
4115 in bullish environments, you would use the weekly Monday,
4116
4117 1030
4118 01:14:00,840 ~-~-> 01:14:04,980
4119 Tuesday London open for the low the week to form and or the
4120
4121 1031
4122 01:14:04,980 ~-~-> 01:14:08,370
4123 latest Wednesdays London open to capture the weekly low, and
4124
4125 1032
4126 01:14:08,370 ~-~-> 01:14:10,470
4127 then get in sync with that and try to hold on to these
4128
4129 1033
4130 01:14:10,470 ~-~-> 01:14:13,800
4131 things as long as you possibly can. It's very difficult if
4132
4133 1034
4134 01:14:13,800 ~-~-> 01:14:17,760
4135 you're always just looking every minor price swing in the
4136
4137 1035
4138 01:14:17,760 ~-~-> 01:14:20,550
4139 market while you're in these. That's why it's much better if
4140
4141 1036
4142 01:14:20,550 ~-~-> 01:14:22,830
4143 you're going to have this concept in trading and still do
4144
4145 1037
4146 01:14:22,830 ~-~-> 01:14:24,660
4147 short term trading, you need to have separate accounts
4148
4149 1038
4150 01:14:24,690 ~-~-> 01:14:29,880
4151 obviously. But you just put the trade on and let the stops
4152
4153 1039
4154 01:14:30,270 ~-~-> 01:14:35,640
4155 stay outside of, you know, potential striking distance. And
4156
4157 1040
4158 01:14:35,670 ~-~-> 01:14:39,660
4159 by that I mean if you get short in here, you let it run down
4160
4161 1041
4162 01:14:39,660 ~-~-> 01:14:43,320
4163 for a while before you do anything with trailing stop losses
4164
4165 1042
4166 01:14:43,320 ~-~-> 01:14:46,260
4167 inside of the because price can come back and tag you and
4168
4169 1043
4170 01:14:46,260 ~-~-> 01:14:49,380
4171 then you'll miss all this. Okay, so you want to look for
4172
4173 1044
4174 01:14:49,560 ~-~-> 01:14:52,920
4175 support levels to be broken like it does here and then comes
4176
4177 1045
4178 01:14:52,920 ~-~-> 01:14:56,490
4179 back and retest it and trades lower. Then Then move your
4180
4181 1046
4182 01:14:56,490 ~-~-> 01:14:59,700
4183 stop into a profitable area where you can lock in a very
4184
4185 1047
4186 01:14:59,700 ~-~-> 01:15:03,330
4187 small portion of the profit. And then don't chase it. Don't
4188
4189 1048
4190 01:15:03,330 ~-~-> 01:15:06,960
4191 trail down too tight. Learn to scale out profits going down
4192
4193 1049
4194 01:15:07,260 ~-~-> 01:15:12,480
4195 at the reasonable predetermined 127 162 and 200 extensions,
4196
4197 1050
4198 01:15:23,430 ~-~-> 01:15:30,570
4199 the fib levels for the cable again from this high up here,
4200
4201 1051
4202 01:15:31,260 ~-~-> 01:15:36,570
4203 this price swing here, okay, this price swing here is the
4204
4205 1052
4206 01:15:36,570 ~-~-> 01:15:42,030
4207 second leg of this move here. So we have to use this price
4208
4209 1053
4210 01:15:42,030 ~-~-> 01:15:45,990
4211 swing before we would ever use this one or this one. Okay.
4212
4213 1054
4214 01:15:46,620 ~-~-> 01:15:51,870
4215 So with that concept, let's take a look at the lowest low
4216
4217 1055
4218 01:15:51,870 ~-~-> 01:16:01,590
4219 candle here and do that Hi. Okay, and here is the 127
4220
4221 1056
4222 01:16:02,160 ~-~-> 01:16:06,930
4223 extension, and here's the 162 extension. And then here's the
4224
4225 1057
4226 01:16:06,930 ~-~-> 01:16:10,350
4227 200 extension here. Okay, you can see how price came down,
4228
4229 1058
4230 01:16:10,920 ~-~-> 01:16:14,460
4231 didn't get to this old low, but they get to 200. So you
4232
4233 1059
4234 01:16:14,460 ~-~-> 01:16:17,760
4235 could have scaled off, obviously, you know 50% of the
4236
4237 1060
4238 01:16:17,760 ~-~-> 01:16:24,180
4239 position. Once you get half profit, I'm sorry 3030 pips move
4240
4241 1061
4242 01:16:24,180 ~-~-> 01:16:28,410
4243 to break even. And then look for 127 extension now you could
4244
4245 1062
4246 01:16:28,410 ~-~-> 01:16:35,700
4247 take 30% off of the total position, okay, or you could take
4248
4249 1063
4250 01:16:36,990 ~-~-> 01:16:39,750
4251 1020
4252
4253 1064
4254 01:16:39,780 ~-~-> 01:16:43,470
4255 at 62 and then leave the remaining portion that you reach
4256
4257 1065
4258 01:16:43,470 ~-~-> 01:16:48,660
4259 for 200 or you could just take the remaining 50% divided by
4260
4261 1066
4262 01:16:48,660 ~-~-> 01:16:53,910
4263 30 of the original position, take it off at 127 and then the
4264
4265 1067
4266 01:16:53,910 ~-~-> 01:16:58,260
4267 remaining 20% would be off at 162 extension and not reach
4268
4269 1068
4270 01:16:58,260 ~-~-> 01:17:02,310
4271 for the 200 or You could just, you know, go for broke and
4272
4273 1069
4274 01:17:02,310 ~-~-> 01:17:06,900
4275 once it takes 127 out and starts reaching for 162, show your
4276
4277 1070
4278 01:17:06,900 ~-~-> 01:17:10,290
4279 stop down to the 127 for the remaining portion, so you can,
4280
4281 1071
4282 01:17:10,350 ~-~-> 01:17:11,970
4283 you know, if it comes back up at least you're going to get
4284
4285 1072
4286 01:17:11,970 ~-~-> 01:17:15,510
4287 out with your remaining half at, you know, a nice logical
4288
4289 1073
4290 01:17:15,510 ~-~-> 01:17:19,320
4291 area to take profits. And if it gets down to 160 to take
4292
4293 1074
4294 01:17:19,320 ~-~-> 01:17:23,100
4295 half of it there off and then the remaining 25% reach for
4296
4297 1075
4298 01:17:23,100 ~-~-> 01:17:27,150
4299 the 200 and and show your stop just above the 162 extension,
4300
4301 1076
4302 01:17:27,180 ~-~-> 01:17:30,300
4303 okay, but there's a lot of different ways and I'm trying not
4304
4305 1077
4306 01:17:30,300 ~-~-> 01:17:34,680
4307 to give you a very clear black and white way of doing it
4308
4309 1078
4310 01:17:34,680 ~-~-> 01:17:37,860
4311 because I want you to have some input on your own. There's a
4312
4313 1079
4314 01:17:37,860 ~-~-> 01:17:41,100
4315 lot of freestyling you can do with these using analysis
4316
4317 1080
4318 01:17:41,100 ~-~-> 01:17:43,890
4319 concepts. And again, hopefully this has just been providing
4320
4321 1081
4322 01:17:43,890 ~-~-> 01:17:49,050
4323 you a an example on how to intermediate term swing trade,
4324
4325 1082
4326 01:17:49,410 ~-~-> 01:17:52,200
4327 and using the higher timeframe macro views to get in sync
4328
4329 1083
4330 01:17:52,200 ~-~-> 01:17:56,040
4331 with with the market and expect learn to anticipate price
4332
4333 1084
4334 01:17:56,040 ~-~-> 01:17:58,710
4335 moves, and then using the smaller timeframe concepts we've
4336
4337 1085
4338 01:17:58,710 ~-~-> 01:18:02,370
4339 used in the other video. To help you with your timing and
4340
4341 1086
4342 01:18:02,370 ~-~-> 01:18:06,330
4343 such, and those being the optimal trade entry video, high
4344
4345 1087
4346 01:18:06,330 ~-~-> 01:18:10,560
4347 probability price patterns video and obviously you need to
4348
4349 1088
4350 01:18:10,560 ~-~-> 01:18:14,520
4351 be cognizant of the risk and equity management so, so those
4352
4353 1089
4354 01:18:14,520 ~-~-> 01:18:18,810
4355 videos in there very insightful and applicable obviously for
4356
4357 1090
4358 01:18:18,810 ~-~-> 01:18:22,650
4359 this, this tutorial so I'm gonna close it here. And
4360
4361 1091
4362 01:18:22,650 ~-~-> 01:18:24,870
4363 hopefully this has been insightful to you guys. And if you
4364
4365 1092
4366 01:18:24,870 ~-~-> 01:18:27,510
4367 have any questions, obviously just post them on the forums
4368
4369 1093
4370 01:18:27,510 ~-~-> 01:18:31,020
4371 at baby pips calm and until then I wish you good luck and
4372
4373 1094
4374 01:18:31,020 ~-~-> 01:18:31,560
4375 good trading.