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--ICT: Okay folks, we are looking at the intermediate term
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++|1 |00:01:42,630 ~-~-> 00:01:51,870 |ICT: Okay folks, we are looking at the intermediate term trading plan example. Now what we're going to cover that in this module is going to be just an example
++|2 |00:01:51,870 ~-~-> 00:02:04,680 |like it states here, there's going to be certain aspects of this particular example of a plan where I can suggest that you could use other tools or
++|3 |00:02:04,680 ~-~-> 00:02:17,100 |applications and where I note those obviously, you can use the suggested mediums and tools at that time. It's not meant for you to use this as a specific trading
++|4 |00:02:17,100 ~-~-> 00:02:26,220 |plan. I'm not advocating that you take this and run with it, jot invest real money with it, it's meant to stimulate prudent decision making on your part,
++|5 |00:02:27,720 ~-~-> 00:02:38,460 |determine whether or not you have the patience and faculties really to be trader and follow a plan of this nature. And obviously, if we're talking about
++|6 |00:02:38,460 ~-~-> 00:02:48,000 |intermediate term trading, the duration of the trade is absolutely absolutely different than what most folks are doing in terms of forex. But that means that
++|7 |00:02:48,000 ~-~-> 00:02:58,440 |I'm referring to intraday and scalp trading. This is not very short term trading, it's it's higher timeframe premise, predominantly, and your trades are
++|8 |00:02:58,440 ~-~-> 00:03:11,100 |going to take a whole lot of time to set up. And also equally more time to unfold to its completion. So this module will, more or less demand a level of
++|9 |00:03:11,100 ~-~-> 00:03:18,030 |patience that probably the majority of traders will not have it at the early stages of their development.
++|10 |00:03:24,870 ~-~-> 00:03:33,600 |Alright, we're gonna talk about the general market and the overall trading plan outline for trading intermediate term. Obviously, the timeframe that we're gonna
++|11 |00:03:33,600 ~-~-> 00:03:42,360 |be trading is the daily chart. Okay, the trading plan outline. Now the timeframe that we are trading in this specific example is going to be referred to
++|12 |00:03:43,230 ~-~-> 00:03:53,250 |predominantly the daily chart. And its primary focus in this plan is to trade the intermediate term price swings found on daily chart. Typically, trade
++|13 |00:03:53,250 ~-~-> 00:04:03,960 |durations will last anywhere between several weeks, to as many as months. Now, in this plan, we're gonna classify bullish conditions and bearish conditions.
++|14 |00:04:04,200 ~-~-> 00:04:14,850 |Okay, and this is more or less the, the market environment that will facilitate buys and sells. First, we're obviously going to look at the bullish conditions.
++|15 |00:04:15,360 ~-~-> 00:04:25,860 |And typically when you enter a seasonal tendency when you would expect a bullish market, obviously, that sets you one on where to look for terms or buying
++|16 |00:04:25,860 ~-~-> 00:04:36,570 |conditions in the marketplace that will facilitate long positions. We're going to be watching the interest rates, okay. And we wouldn't be expecting interest
++|17 |00:04:36,570 ~-~-> 00:04:47,520 |rates to be moving higher and or looking for divergence, okay in the yields to possibly indicate that we're battling out in the yield and we may be going
++|18 |00:04:47,520 ~-~-> 00:04:57,930 |higher because markets basically seek higher yields that is going to create the risk on effect that we're looking for for a bullish condition. Obviously, it
++|19 |00:04:57,930 ~-~-> 00:05:05,520 |goes without saying if we're looking for a risk One scenario, the US dollar is going to weaken at this timeframe. So we're going to be looking for topping
++|20 |00:05:05,520 ~-~-> 00:05:16,830 |formations or weakening of the US dollar on the daily chart, the Treasury notes, okay, two year five year and 10 year, we'll be looking for those futures markets
++|21 |00:05:16,830 ~-~-> 00:05:26,370 |because you're gonna be contrasting forex trading with the insights that we glean from the futures market, the daily charts on to five and 10 year should be
++|22 |00:05:26,370 ~-~-> 00:05:37,200 |declining. And because there's an inversion of relationship between the yields and the futures markets, tea notes will be going down on your daily charts.
++|23 |00:05:37,440 ~-~-> 00:05:51,030 |While that indicates that the interest rate itself its yield would be moving higher CBOT, this commodity tool that we use commitment traders, we're only
++|24 |00:05:51,030 ~-~-> 00:06:00,450 |looking for hopefully, the commercials being a net long position or if they are net short, we want to be looking for an aggressively lessening of their short
++|25 |00:06:00,450 ~-~-> 00:06:10,590 |positions. Okay, and you can see that in open interest. sentiment, obviously, on the daily chart should be oversold. And the way we're going to determining that
++|26 |00:06:10,590 ~-~-> 00:06:19,440 |is we're gonna be looking at a daily Williams percent are okay, so that's going to be our tool to more or less indicate to us whether or not if the market
++|27 |00:06:19,440 ~-~-> 00:06:30,000 |sentiment is oversold or overbought. Okay. In this case, since we're looking for bullish conditions, ideally, the sentiment should be oversold stock indices,
++|28 |00:06:30,060 ~-~-> 00:06:41,160 |hopefully at this time are affirming and or bullish. Okay. So we're just looking for some kind of failure swing between the major stock indices, and that would
++|29 |00:06:41,160 ~-~-> 00:06:51,150 |be at hopefully at a key support level commodities should be at this time bullish and we we would reference that would be look at the CRB index and it
++|30 |00:06:51,150 ~-~-> 00:07:01,290 |should be trading firm to bullish at a key support level and maybe even looking for a buy pattern of some sort. Maybe now optimal trade entry something like
++|31 |00:07:01,290 ~-~-> 00:07:14,610 |that nature. When I say firm it means indicating an unwillingness to go lower. Okay. And gold and oil obviously good benchmark for the economy, they should be
++|32 |00:07:14,610 ~-~-> 00:07:25,650 |firm and or too bullish as well. Conversely, obviously for the bearish conditions, seasonally speaking, there should be a bearish market environment.
++|33 |00:07:26,040 ~-~-> 00:07:36,120 |seasonally speaking, that should set you on on alert to look for sell scenarios. Interest rates at this time should be moving lower, okay, because the market
++|34 |00:07:36,690 ~-~-> 00:07:46,590 |will shun lower yields. If the interest rates are dropping, that will indicate that there is a risk off scenario. And if there's a risk off scenario, it goes
++|35 |00:07:46,590 ~-~-> 00:07:55,350 |without saying that the US dollar would be strengthening at that time. Treasury notes on a daily chart should be rising. And again, because there's an inverted
++|36 |00:07:55,350 ~-~-> 00:08:05,430 |relationship between yield and the futures market. The interest rates yield will be moving lower while the futures daily charts on the two year five year and 10
++|37 |00:08:05,430 ~-~-> 00:08:06,900 |year should be rising.
++|38 |00:08:08,520 ~-~-> 00:08:16,560 |Remember, traders report the net position should show commercials net short and or aggressively increasing short positions and you find that with the
++|39 |00:08:16,560 ~-~-> 00:08:24,930 |referencing of the open interest sentiment should be overbought. And again, it's based on a Williams percent our basis on a daily chart. And we'll talk more
++|40 |00:08:24,930 ~-~-> 00:08:37,260 |about that when we start going to the actual analysis. And obviously the stock indices should be soft or too bearish on a daily chart. So your NASDAQ dow and
++|41 |00:08:37,260 ~-~-> 00:08:48,780 |s&p indices should be topping in here. And or trading at key resistance levels respectively. commodities at this point should be bearish and we would be
++|42 |00:08:48,780 ~-~-> 00:08:56,970 |referencing the CRB index again as well and only looking for some kind of topping formation key resistance levels or some rejections at the highs. And
++|43 |00:08:56,970 ~-~-> 00:09:10,080 |again, it is now soft and or trading bearishly. And, again, referencing the gold and oil benchmark for the economy should be soft, maybe read resistance in both
++|44 |00:09:10,080 ~-~-> 00:09:21,690 |those markets as well, seeing softer prices and maybe two as much as bearishness to facilitate a further confidence in a bearish market condition.
++|45 |00:09:32,880 ~-~-> 00:09:42,480 |Okay, the anticipatory stage for this example plan. Obviously, we always begin with identifying the higher timeframe monthly, weekly and daily key support
++|46 |00:09:42,480 ~-~-> 00:09:50,220 |resistance levels, because those levels are going to be the catalyst for us looking for signals. So without these levels, okay, we're not going to be taking
++|47 |00:09:50,220 ~-~-> 00:09:58,080 |a trade. So we must have a higher timeframe monthly, weekly or daily key support resistance level to facilitate a trade. Okay, so we're going to be waiting for
++|48 |00:09:58,080 ~-~-> 00:10:07,260 |these levels to be traded to Now while we're waiting for a setup, okay, we're not when we're seasonally speaking bullish. Okay, you're gonna be stocking the
++|49 |00:10:07,260 ~-~-> 00:10:18,090 |yields. Okay, the yield triads, and I'm gonna refer to basically my favorite pairs for this plan, that being the fiber, Euro USD and the cable British Pound
++|50 |00:10:18,660 ~-~-> 00:10:28,770 |USD pairs, okay, because they are cross with the dollar if we're seasonally speaking bullish, okay, what we're going to be looking for is the yields, okay,
++|51 |00:10:29,190 ~-~-> 00:10:43,710 |five year 10 year and two year between those three interest rate yields. If one fails to make a lower low, okay, that's going to be a positive divergence
++|52 |00:10:43,740 ~-~-> 00:10:54,480 |indicating there's a possible turn in yield and that may indicate a possible increase in yields, which would cause a bullishness and a risk on scenario.
++|53 |00:10:54,750 ~-~-> 00:11:11,760 |Okay? If we were seasonally speaking, bearish, okay. And we see the yields between the US the German in the UK countries yields failed to make equal highs
++|54 |00:11:11,790 ~-~-> 00:11:21,930 |and their yields. Okay, that's a yield triad divergence, okay. And you will talk about them also examples, if it's not very clear to you here, but that would
++|55 |00:11:21,930 ~-~-> 00:11:35,370 |indicate a bearish stage in the marketplace overall. So we're anticipating that to unfold, okay. At the same time, we will obviously be hunting the same
++|56 |00:11:35,370 ~-~-> 00:11:46,470 |scenario with the US Dollar Index, okay, we will be looking for the lows in the US Dollar Index versus the highs and the cross currencies. Okay. And again,
++|57 |00:11:46,470 ~-~-> 00:11:55,110 |we're looking at the Euro versus the Dollar and the British Pound versus the Dollar. So if we're making lower lows in the dollar, but failing to make higher
++|58 |00:11:55,110 ~-~-> 00:12:12,090 |highs in one and or the both fiber and cable, then that is a US dx SMT divergence, okay, and that would be bearish for the euro and or cable. If the
++|59 |00:12:12,090 ~-~-> 00:12:24,420 |dollar was making lower lows in the Euro or fiber, I'm sorry, Euro or cable was unlikely to go higher deaths weakness, they should be confirmation between the
++|60 |00:12:24,420 ~-~-> 00:12:32,400 |three. If the dollar makes lower lows bits should be seen with higher highs with the fiber and cable. If there's not, there's a crack and correlation that may
++|61 |00:12:32,400 ~-~-> 00:12:42,540 |indicate something monitoring highs in the US Dollar Index versus the lows in the cross currency pairs. Okay, fiber and cable. If we see higher highs in the
++|62 |00:12:42,540 ~-~-> 00:12:51,870 |dollar and a failure to go lower in the fiber or cable again, that's an SMP divergence for the US Dollar Index. And that may be a cracking correlation that
++|63 |00:12:51,870 ~-~-> 00:13:03,720 |may indicate something. Now, this can also reverse itself. If you see higher highs in the Euro or cable, but a failure to go lower on the lows in the dollar
++|64 |00:13:03,720 ~-~-> 00:13:15,180 |index. That is the same scenario that is bullish for the dollar, which would indicate bearishness for the Euro or cable. And again, this has to happen at a
++|65 |00:13:15,180 ~-~-> 00:13:25,890 |key resistance level for to be bearish for the cross currency. Okay, the dollar index may be trading down to a support level and make a higher low when the
++|66 |00:13:25,920 ~-~-> 00:13:33,960 |cable and fiber maybe need a higher high it looks bullish on their charts. But behind the scenes, you can see that there's actually strengthening going on at a
++|67 |00:13:33,960 ~-~-> 00:13:44,610 |key support level for the dollar index. And again, same thing happens if you reverse it if the US Dollar Index fails and a higher high while the lower lows
++|68 |00:13:44,640 ~-~-> 00:13:56,130 |that are seen in the cable or fiber are met equally, then there's lower lows in the cross currency euro or cable. There's a cracking correlation as well. So you
++|69 |00:13:56,130 ~-~-> 00:14:07,110 |have to compare the highs and lows between the three. Okay, and that also segue into the correlator pair SMT. You're gonna be looking for the lows between the
++|70 |00:14:07,110 ~-~-> 00:14:19,830 |pound and the euro. Okay, so though, generally they move in tandem. If we see trading at a key support level, and one fails to make a lower low, that's
++|71 |00:14:20,610 ~-~-> 00:14:29,340 |correlated pair s&p divergence possibly indicating there should be a short term shift in the marketplace for a bounce higher and obviously comparing the highs
++|72 |00:14:29,370 ~-~-> 00:14:29,820 |at
++|73 |00:14:32,250 ~-~-> 00:14:42,180 |key resistance levels. If the pound and euro failed to make equal highs. That's a correlative pair s&t, possibly indicating some distribution in the marketplace
++|74 |00:14:42,180 ~-~-> 00:14:54,930 |and there may be a short term shift in the marketplace lower. We'll be watching the stock market indices okay looking for SMP divergence as well. Looking for
++|75 |00:14:54,960 ~-~-> 00:15:04,650 |the Dow s&p 500 and NASDAQ Composite Index to compare copper We make higher highs and lower lows if we're bullish, and we're in a bullish environment, and
++|76 |00:15:04,650 ~-~-> 00:15:15,330 |we see the doubt, s&p 500 and NASDAQ, trading lower in tandem, and eventually one fails to make that lower low at a key support level, at a time frame when
++|77 |00:15:15,330 ~-~-> 00:15:25,170 |everything else is lining up, that is a stock market s&p divergence. Okay, so we we want to be seeing confirmation, we want to be measuring on a daily basis
++|78 |00:15:25,170 ~-~-> 00:15:34,350 |monitoring the overall risk on risk off scenario. So using Dow Theory, essentially, we want to be looking for these three averages to confirm our highs
++|79 |00:15:34,380 ~-~-> 00:15:44,970 |for continuation on upside, and or looking for follow up. continuation and confirmation between the three as they go lower, there should be lower lows
++|80 |00:15:44,970 ~-~-> 00:15:54,870 |between the three, if one starts to buck that trend at a key resistance or support level, there's an indication that you may have to pay closer attention
++|81 |00:15:54,870 ~-~-> 00:16:02,310 |to there may be something setting up. Or if you're in a trade, it may be indicating it's time to tighten up some stop losses and take some profits or
++|82 |00:16:02,370 ~-~-> 00:16:12,960 |even exit the trade. Again, referring to the administrators net position, we're going to be looking for long positions when the commercials are net long. And
++|83 |00:16:12,960 ~-~-> 00:16:20,340 |obviously looking for shorts when the commercials are net short. Looking at the overall trend of where the commercials are trading on the weekly charts, using
++|84 |00:16:20,340 ~-~-> 00:16:29,370 |the Commitment of Traders net position, you'll be able to see where they're trading in terms of long term macro trend. And when we getting in sync with
++|85 |00:16:29,370 ~-~-> 00:16:42,420 |that, using the CRT and par timeframe, key support resistance levels. open interest. We've discussed this in other modules, and obviously we're not going
++|86 |00:16:42,420 ~-~-> 00:16:52,320 |to beat it to death here. But basically it's when we're in a bullish condition and we're trading at support and we see a 15 to 20%. Drop in open interest. That
++|87 |00:16:52,320 ~-~-> 00:17:02,850 |is a very, very strong indication that it'd be a buy signal is either forming and or it has formed. And it's bullish and bearish conditions when price is
++|88 |00:17:02,850 ~-~-> 00:17:12,630 |trading at resistance, and we see a increase in open interest 15 to 20% or more, it doesn't have to be just 20% of may many times be even greater than that in
++|89 |00:17:12,630 ~-~-> 00:17:20,580 |terms of an increase. But you want to see it rapidly increase and you don't want to see a gradual because you want to see a rapid increase in just as well as you
++|90 |00:17:20,580 ~-~-> 00:17:28,800 |want to see an increase. When it drops for bullishness, you want to see it rapidly do that, because that's an indication that the commercials are really
++|91 |00:17:28,800 ~-~-> 00:17:39,960 |really adjusting positions and allocating funds to offset the initial risk or risk on scenario that may impact the market that actually working with them. So
++|92 |00:17:39,960 ~-~-> 00:17:50,250 |if you see an increase in open interest at a resistance level that's bearish. market sentiment, obviously we would be expecting sell signals when we are at
++|93 |00:17:50,250 ~-~-> 00:17:59,040 |key resistance levels and overbought basis on the daily chart. And we would be looking for buy signals when we're at key support and oversold on a daily.
++|94 |00:18:09,480 ~-~-> 00:18:17,790 |Alright, the execution stage obviously, again, referencing the monthly, weekly and daily key support resistance levels. We're gonna be determining before we do
++|95 |00:18:17,790 ~-~-> 00:18:27,780 |any trades at all, we're going to determine that specific moment, are we on risk or off risk for that particular day or that session that we're trading. If we
++|96 |00:18:27,780 ~-~-> 00:18:38,190 |are risk on obviously, your your buy scenarios our ago, if we are risk off your sell scenarios, our goal, you want to be referring to the daily buy and sell
++|97 |00:18:38,190 ~-~-> 00:18:48,210 |programs. Again, that means are we trading off of a key support and of a swing point formation or daily chart, because that's what you need for buys. And if we
++|98 |00:18:48,210 ~-~-> 00:18:57,030 |are in a sell program, and we see a swing high forming at a key resistance level, okay, that's an indication that we are in fact, a go for risk off
++|99 |00:18:57,030 ~-~-> 00:19:09,840 |scenario and daily sell program. Okay, so that that has to happen for us to be confident with our trading for this style of trading. When we have that
++|100 |00:19:09,840 ~-~-> 00:19:19,110 |scenario, in effect, you're going to be transposing those key levels from the higher timeframe monthly, weekly and daily, down to your lower timeframe, 60
++|101 |00:19:19,110 ~-~-> 00:19:30,360 |minute, 15 minute and five minute charts, you're going to wait for price to trade to those higher timeframe key support resistance levels. You want to only
++|102 |00:19:30,360 ~-~-> 00:19:38,160 |be trading in the direction of the market structure that you find it's on the daily chart. So your market structure is going to be daily basis. Okay, you're
++|103 |00:19:38,160 ~-~-> 00:19:46,410 |not looking at market flow one one hour charts for our charts, you're only trading in the direction of the market structure that you find on a daily chart.
++|104 |00:19:47,370 ~-~-> 00:19:57,780 |You're using optimal trade entry. Now, this point here, you can use any trading pattern of your choice. If you'd like the reflection pattern, you can trade that
++|105 |00:19:58,080 ~-~-> 00:20:05,430 |if you'd like MACD divergence, this Here's what you would use here. If you are type one bearish divergence for stochastics. That's, that's the pattern you
++|106 |00:20:05,430 ~-~-> 00:20:15,210 |would use here. If you'd like turtle soup patterns, that's the pattern you will use here. Okay, but you have to trade it at a lower timeframe at a key support
++|107 |00:20:15,210 ~-~-> 00:20:23,910 |resistance level in the direction of the market structure on a daily chart. Okay, so the plug and play aspect here is you can use any entry pattern that you
++|108 |00:20:23,910 ~-~-> 00:20:34,140 |want. But it has to be in conjunction with the things that we've already discussed so far. Okay, entry ideally, should be traded in a major session open.
++|109 |00:20:34,350 ~-~-> 00:20:44,700 |Obviously, I don't have it here, Asia could be one. London and New York open are good, because they're, they're just good times to be trading our timeframe
++|110 |00:20:44,790 ~-~-> 00:20:57,270 |setups for the fiber and cable. But if you're a yen pair trader, or if you're an Aussie trader, or Kiwi trader or something like that, you could trade the Euro
++|111 |00:20:57,270 ~-~-> 00:21:07,890 |positions in the asian session opening, okay, because those, those currencies have a lot of activity during those times a day. So, if you are a Aussie kiwi,
++|112 |00:21:07,920 ~-~-> 00:21:19,500 |or yen trader, obviously the asian session would be in session that you could be utilizing for higher timeframe, intermediate term trades as well for entry. Our
++|113 |00:21:19,500 ~-~-> 00:21:29,280 |entry orders are going to be based on limit orders. And we'll be keying off of the 60 to 70.5 and 79% retracement levels on the fibs to arrive at our entry
++|114 |00:21:29,280 ~-~-> 00:21:41,430 |points. And every one of our trades will always have a maximum risk of 2%, Nevermore And ideally, less if we take a loss, we reduce the risk as we go
++|115 |00:21:41,430 ~-~-> 00:21:49,710 |through if you don't know how to return to go to our video for handling losses, and it gives you a program how to apply
++|116 |00:21:51,780 ~-~-> 00:22:00,630 |risk reduction procedures in terms of how to preserve your equity. And it's always good to have that not always walking in the marketplace looking for it.
++|117 |00:22:00,990 ~-~-> 00:22:10,710 |Exponential growth of your equity, you always have to have a shield and you're going to have losses you have string of losses. So this this example is not
++|118 |00:22:11,250 ~-~-> 00:22:20,280 |exempt from that you will have losses if you use this, okay. And again, I'm stressing this, use this in a demo account, okay, you determine if you have the
++|119 |00:22:20,580 ~-~-> 00:22:31,560 |capabilities to be a trader using this as a model, okay? It will help develop patience, it'll help develop anticipatory skills as a trader, but you won't have
++|120 |00:22:31,560 ~-~-> 00:22:42,480 |a whole lot of trade, okay, but it teaches you the concepts and processes as needed. Because if you can understand how to do this, all of the aspects of
++|121 |00:22:42,480 ~-~-> 00:22:51,750 |trading on a short term basis short term trading, day trading, scalping, if that's what you want to do. those facets of trading will be far easier if you
++|122 |00:22:51,750 ~-~-> 00:23:01,260 |understand this higher timeframe premise where you have that major tide in your favor, okay? It's kind of like a fish. Okay, if you're a fish in this in the
++|123 |00:23:01,260 ~-~-> 00:23:08,820 |stream, okay, what's easier if you stream if you swim downstream with the current or if you swim upstream? Okay, obviously goes without saying it's easy
++|124 |00:23:08,820 ~-~-> 00:23:19,440 |to swim downstream. There's a fish, the salmon, very small, the strongest fish in nature, it actually swims up current, okay, and leaps up out of the water, in
++|125 |00:23:19,440 ~-~-> 00:23:26,760 |scales over rocks and everything. And a lot of folks that know that will say, you know, I can be like that salmon. Okay, I'm going to swim against the
++|126 |00:23:26,760 ~-~-> 00:23:34,590 |current. And, you know, I can prove how strong I am. And I'll be a contrarian trader every single time and never had to worry about getting in sync with the
++|127 |00:23:34,590 ~-~-> 00:23:42,150 |overall tide. And and that's fine, okay, you grant it you, you'll probably get to where you're going. But if you're using the salmon as an example, you might
++|128 |00:23:42,150 ~-~-> 00:23:51,300 |want to recall also when the salmon gets to where it's got to go to fertilize those eggs, it dies. So, I mean, it's good that you get there. But you know, if
++|129 |00:23:51,300 ~-~-> 00:23:59,640 |you're exhausted you croak, you were good is that so you want to be having things majority in your favor and trading with the tide. Okay, that's your
++|130 |00:23:59,670 ~-~-> 00:24:09,300 |that's what your focus should be. Okay, and trading on the higher timeframe premise using intermediate term timeframe. Your short term day trades and your
++|131 |00:24:09,300 ~-~-> 00:24:17,430 |scalps in that direction also will have very, very immediate feedback. You'll know right away if you're you're going to be profitable in the trades. You don't
++|132 |00:24:17,430 ~-~-> 00:24:25,920 |get that lackadaisical price action you usually get when you're trading counter trend. Stop Loss orders obviously always going to originate at a 30 PIP stop
++|133 |00:24:26,670 ~-~-> 00:24:37,380 |from our entry point. And obviously whatever your entry price is just to make 30 pips from that above for shorts and below for Long's first profit is always
++|134 |00:24:37,380 ~-~-> 00:24:46,650 |going to be taken at 50% of our position at 30 pips profits and almost once that position goes to 30 pips profit, we take 50% a position off, and once we get
++|135 |00:24:46,650 ~-~-> 00:24:55,710 |that our stop loss moves to a breakeven status, okay, so now we're in a risk free scenario. Okay, we've already profited. We got half the position off. So
++|136 |00:24:55,710 ~-~-> 00:25:05,130 |basically, we're making 1% on the trade. We're locked at breakeven. We cannot lose any thing we've already made and booked 1% profit, the remaining balance of
++|137 |00:25:05,130 ~-~-> 00:25:13,860 |the trade, you would look for targets based on Fibonacci extensions, 127, extension, and 162 extension, or I don't have it listed here, but you can have
++|138 |00:25:13,860 ~-~-> 00:25:22,920 |the 200 extension as well. Now you have 50% of your remaining position, there's a couple ways you can handle that. If you are uncomfortable, and you're still
++|139 |00:25:22,920 ~-~-> 00:25:33,840 |learning, my advice would be to take 30% off when it gets to 127 extension, and then take 10 more off at 162. And maybe even another final 10% off at the 200
++|140 |00:25:33,840 ~-~-> 00:25:44,160 |extension, or take 30 off at 127. Take 20 off at 162. And just paper trade the remaining portion, you don't have any open position, but then see if it goes to
++|141 |00:25:44,160 ~-~-> 00:25:53,070 |the 200 extension, okay. But really the 127 wants you to you want to have at least 70 to 80% of your trade already in profit. And then if you have a small
++|142 |00:25:53,070 ~-~-> 00:26:02,820 |portion, obviously, you can leave that to ride to 200% or even greater, okay, but you want to be taking profits and book them at 127 and 162 of the swing that
++|143 |00:26:02,820 ~-~-> 00:26:03,420 |you're trading.
++|144 |00:26:16,140 ~-~-> 00:26:27,090 |Okay, let's look at the 10 year t notes and how we can use these in conjunction with yield analysis. And what we're looking at here is this is March April of
++|145 |00:26:27,090 ~-~-> 00:26:42,390 |this year, and 2012 going into spring. And we have a weekly swing low formed at the 128. Big figure for the 10 year Tinos, the US 10 year Tina. Note also that
++|146 |00:26:42,390 ~-~-> 00:26:57,840 |we have a old low here just above the 127 figure. And we have a rally up to the 132 figure. And then we saw a decline down into March where we had support found
++|147 |00:26:57,840 ~-~-> 00:27:09,570 |that 128 big figure now that's an optimal trade entry. Okay, so if we see a swing low on a weekly chart on a 10 year, and we see a pivot or swing low form
++|148 |00:27:09,600 ~-~-> 00:27:23,610 |at a big figure like this 128 we also see open interest declining, okay, you can see at the bar here, the purple level here, how open interest was declining, we
++|149 |00:27:23,610 ~-~-> 00:27:36,030 |would expect prices to rally up. Now, the teenage rallying up that means that the yield is going to be dropping. if they'll if, again, this is what happened
++|150 |00:27:36,810 ~-~-> 00:27:50,730 |later on going into the year, we saw that spring rally up seasonally speaking, that is an inverse relationship between the bonds. Okay, bond yields. So as the
++|151 |00:27:50,730 ~-~-> 00:28:04,710 |march low was formed, and we rallied up into May, June time period, that was going to be mirrored in the yield. Okay, dropping. So if the tea notes rallying
++|152 |00:28:04,710 ~-~-> 00:28:17,730 |up, the yield itself is going to be declining, okay? So that's going to be bearish, it's going to drag risk out of the market, okay. In other words, the
++|153 |00:28:18,180 ~-~-> 00:28:31,920 |risk off scenario will unfold. Okay, there'll be a flight to quality and during this timeframe, we would see the dollar index rally and obviously, risky assets
++|154 |00:28:32,010 ~-~-> 00:28:42,390 |in foreign currencies and such, they would be declining. Okay, so we have seen our tenancy, we see the support and concepts that we utilize in all of our
++|155 |00:28:42,390 ~-~-> 00:28:51,300 |trading, optimal trade entry trading at a key support level, we would expect a rally up in this timeframe. Okay, April May time period going into the June
++|156 |00:28:51,300 ~-~-> 00:29:04,440 |months. Okay, let's see what happens in the five year t note. same scenario, we see a weekly optimal trade entry trading down into 122. Big figure, we see a
++|157 |00:29:04,440 ~-~-> 00:29:18,060 |swing point low. Okay, going into April. What unfolds obviously much in the same capacity we saw in the tenure, the five year rallies up into the end of May,
++|158 |00:29:18,090 ~-~-> 00:29:29,310 |early June. Okay, and even higher in the case of this September of this year, but we saw the shift that takes place with a bullish move going higher in the
++|159 |00:29:29,310 ~-~-> 00:29:36,630 |treasuries and tea notes. Now, if the futures contracts going higher, again, you gotta remember their inverse relationship. That means it's going to see a
++|160 |00:29:36,630 ~-~-> 00:29:47,400 |decline in the yield so we see dollar up because dollar is gonna be trading in pretty much the same direction that the treasuries are gonna lead it. Many times
++|161 |00:29:47,400 ~-~-> 00:29:56,520 |the dollar will lead treasuries, okay, it's vice versa. It's, it's kind of like you know, if one follows the other, okay, but you want to add the seasonal
++|162 |00:29:57,000 ~-~-> 00:30:07,080 |influences and the time of year like me willing to trade intraday we have time and day theory, we have time of year theory, where we see a spring decline or
++|163 |00:30:07,080 ~-~-> 00:30:20,460 |risk off scenario. Okay, and you'll see the dollar increase in bonds rally. So what does that look like in the yield? Okay, what we're looking at is a bond
++|164 |00:30:20,460 ~-~-> 00:30:21,270 |yield triad.
++|165 |00:30:22,829 ~-~-> 00:30:36,269 |And we're looking at specifically is the five year US Treasury. T note. The UK five year bond yield and the German five year bond yield. And how I got this
++|166 |00:30:36,269 ~-~-> 00:30:48,479 |chart went to bloomberg.com. And if you go actually in do with Google, do a google on five year US Treasury, government bond yield, okay, and click on that
++|167 |00:30:48,479 ~-~-> 00:30:58,919 |and you'll see the Bloomberg link. Do the same thing with a UK five year bond erupt? Bloomberg, put that in your Google search and obviously do the same thing
++|168 |00:30:58,919 ~-~-> 00:31:09,329 |with the German five year bond yield Bloomberg. And when you Google that, you'll get the link for a click on it. And when you get the chart that opens up similar
++|169 |00:31:09,329 ~-~-> 00:31:28,259 |to this, you'll just simply add the symbols you see here for a five year US Treasury or T note. yield. It's us GG. Number five, why our colon ind. For a UK
++|170 |00:31:29,459 ~-~-> 00:31:47,459 |five year bond yield is G UK, g five colon ind. And for a German five year bond yield. It's g d, b r five colon ind. Now I want to draw your attention here real
++|171 |00:31:47,459 ~-~-> 00:31:57,119 |quick is if you look at the the darker orange color, and I don't I can't pick the colors. It just does it by default. But if you look at how, in March, April,
++|172 |00:31:57,449 ~-~-> 00:32:13,769 |okay, the US Treasury was able to make a higher high in yield, okay, no, it would have went lower on the Tina, the green level, long yield, that's the UK,
++|173 |00:32:14,639 ~-~-> 00:32:32,099 |it was able to make a modestly lower in comparison terms, the highs made in the US then we see the German was also weaker as well. Okay, so it wasn't able to go
++|174 |00:32:32,099 ~-~-> 00:32:46,019 |lower in its futures contract. But the yields you can see the disparity that's shifting in place, that takes place where the US Treasury five year went higher.
++|175 |00:32:46,199 ~-~-> 00:32:58,949 |So we have SMT divergence, okay. There is confirmation to there is a weakness underway going into April. So we see that weakness translated in the form of
++|176 |00:32:58,949 ~-~-> 00:33:16,229 |these overlays. If you take the UK off, okay, so now we're just looking at the German five year in the US five year, you can see a little bit clear now that
++|177 |00:33:16,229 ~-~-> 00:33:31,049 |the green level green is the German and the orange color is the US us was able to make a higher high in yield, while the German was unable to make the higher
++|178 |00:33:31,049 ~-~-> 00:33:41,219 |high in going into March going into April. So we see a slide lower in yield and that was translated in the rally up in the T note that we saw in the US
++|179 |00:33:41,219 ~-~-> 00:33:48,239 |Treasury. So there's this symmetry between the two you want to be watching the yield you want to be watching the T note you want to be watching the German
++|180 |00:33:48,239 ~-~-> 00:34:04,499 |yield. With the German futures contract you can you can trade the trade but you can track it with its futures contract and the UK as well. Seeing these the
++|181 |00:34:04,529 ~-~-> 00:34:18,449 |divergence, okay. Adds confidence to your expectation expectancy, that we should be seeing weaker British pound and fiber prices and a rally in the dollar, April
++|182 |00:34:18,449 ~-~-> 00:34:34,679 |May timeframe when the spring seasonal influence should be coming on the way. Now looking at the US and the UK, you can see that same thing happening. The
++|183 |00:34:34,679 ~-~-> 00:34:49,349 |orange level it's the US and the green is the UK five year yield. We were unable to make that comparable higher high in the yield on the UK. So we see the s&p
++|184 |00:34:49,349 ~-~-> 00:34:59,999 |divergence that we would expect to see going into April so we saw further evidence by removing one you can slip a little clearer you can see it dive
++|185 |00:34:59,999 ~-~-> 00:35:10,199 |vergence between the two yields. And by looking at just simply the UK and German yields, you can see that the
++|186 |00:35:11,610 ~-~-> 00:35:27,240 |German and UK yields were not able to make comparable highs between December and the middle of March, the UK was able to trade higher. At the same time, the
++|187 |00:35:27,240 ~-~-> 00:35:40,320 |German was weaker, okay, and was unable to make a higher high yield. And you seen that also going into the actual price levels, that the fiber itself was
++|188 |00:35:40,320 ~-~-> 00:35:49,500 |trading because that's the German is going to be measuring the yield for that specific specific country. The UK is for the cable. Well, if you look at the the
++|189 |00:35:49,500 ~-~-> 00:36:00,180 |underlying weakness that was in the yield for the German, you can see how we were really really weak really soft. In the march april time period for for the
++|190 |00:36:00,360 ~-~-> 00:36:08,970 |for the five or so there was really no participation whatsoever our interest in chasing any higher yield there, they were actually selling into that and you
++|191 |00:36:08,970 ~-~-> 00:36:16,320 |could see the the weakness really accelerate going into June and the middle of July.
++|192 |00:36:21,270 ~-~-> 00:36:33,660 |Okay, folks, we're looking at bar chart.com. Okay, this is a free website, absolutely zero fees whatsoever. So give you access to commodities, and
++|193 |00:36:33,690 ~-~-> 00:36:44,130 |commodity traders reports and open interest. When you go to the homepage, this is what pops up over here to this little tab here says select the commodity. Tap
++|194 |00:36:44,130 ~-~-> 00:36:55,950 |that and we'll start with the US Dollar Index. Okay, when one opens up, you'll get onto top of lists to please the cash you don't want that your is the nearby
++|195 |00:36:55,950 ~-~-> 00:37:08,490 |contract December next month, Al's March following by June and September. This click the top contract here to one that has a month again not using cache. Click
++|196 |00:37:08,490 ~-~-> 00:37:18,180 |on December it'll obviously depend upon what time of the year you're trading. And looking at the resource. It'll be a different month, obviously, but you just
++|197 |00:37:18,180 ~-~-> 00:37:27,300 |want choose the top one that's gonna be the nearby contract, then go to this area here where says customized chart, click that tab. And that'll open up a
++|198 |00:37:27,300 ~-~-> 00:37:36,810 |window to get you a chart like this. Okay, and what you're gonna do is you're gonna scroll down to this little area down here, we can set the parameters, you
++|199 |00:37:36,810 ~-~-> 00:37:47,550 |want to set the frequency to weekly nearest, what that's going to do is going to give you a chart based on weekly ranges using the nearby contract always. Okay,
++|200 |00:37:48,210 ~-~-> 00:37:59,910 |I'm gonna change it to candlesticks. I'm gonna change it to one year. And make sure this is saying total volume. Okay, total volume. And reason why you won't
++|201 |00:37:59,910 ~-~-> 00:38:05,040 |get the open interest and volume as you see down here. Otherwise, click draw.
++|202 |00:38:10,950 ~-~-> 00:38:22,140 |Okay, and you'll get a window pops up with a new chart here. And what it says is is a weekly chart using weekly range highs and lows derived from the nearest
++|203 |00:38:22,140 ~-~-> 00:38:34,110 |contract month of the US Dollar Index, okay. And if you look at the bottom here, this purple line here, it's moving along here sneaking up and down. Okay, that
++|204 |00:38:34,140 ~-~-> 00:38:45,000 |delineates the total open interest for the dollar index. And obviously, it goes without saying these vertical red and green lines are volume. Okay, we're not
++|205 |00:38:45,000 ~-~-> 00:38:52,320 |going to like pay attention to the volume, but there's just no way for me to take the volume off and just leave the open interest. So we have to kind of look
++|206 |00:38:52,320 ~-~-> 00:39:05,910 |past these vertical lines and pay attention to the purple line in here. Okay. So let's go and scroll down a little bit. Notice how we rode up in price here on
++|207 |00:39:05,910 ~-~-> 00:39:14,820 |the dollar and then we went into a consolidation after small retracement, okay, see this consolidation here, we have a range high here. And we have a range low
++|208 |00:39:14,820 ~-~-> 00:39:26,760 |in here. Note the time of the year, okay, March, April, May, March, April May, because that's springtime of this year. Note the low here and the high here in
++|209 |00:39:26,760 ~-~-> 00:39:34,110 |this low. This is optimal trade entry. pull that up on your platform, both of across that and you'll see that we did trade right back down to this level here.
++|210 |00:39:34,650 ~-~-> 00:39:50,190 |Now utilizing this this concept of weekly ranges and seasonal tendencies, okay. Typically in the springtime, we see a weakness come into the marketplace in the
++|211 |00:39:50,190 ~-~-> 00:39:59,220 |form of British Pound usually making a seasonal high April May and trading down into the summer months. Well, that's going to be a mirror image or reverse.
++|212 |00:39:59,550 ~-~-> 00:40:09,660 |Okay. In the dollar, the dollar should rally up at that same time frame and you see that unfolding here. Okay, now we're gonna introduce the concept of open
++|213 |00:40:09,660 ~-~-> 00:40:19,980 |interest. Okay? And I want you to take a look at this drop, okay, rather sharp drop in open interest right here, during a timeframe when we're in a
++|214 |00:40:19,980 ~-~-> 00:40:31,350 |consolidation. This is the commercials tipping their hand that this is now no longer going to be staying within this small little timeframe of trading range,
++|215 |00:40:31,380 ~-~-> 00:40:41,580 |okay? They expect higher prices. Why? Because open interest is declining. We've learned that open interest decline in a consolidation is commercials doing what
++|216 |00:40:41,670 ~-~-> 00:40:51,870 |lessening their shorts, if they're lessening their short positions. They expect what higher prices and you can see that unfolding here. Okay, now, by itself,
++|217 |00:40:52,170 ~-~-> 00:41:02,310 |that's wonderful. But how do you confirm that? How do you see the X ray view so to speak of this open interest indicator giving you the insight that we're
++|218 |00:41:02,310 ~-~-> 00:41:13,830 |supposing it's doing here? Well, you scroll down to this little area on your page, it says add study, click on this tab here. And you want to go to
++|219 |00:41:13,860 ~-~-> 00:41:29,910 |Commitment of Traders line chart, tap that then draw chart. Okay, now watch. See the open interest declining here? That's lessening of shorts. The red line down
++|220 |00:41:29,910 ~-~-> 00:41:39,300 |here is the commercials. Okay, they are below the zero line here, because they are net short. But look what they're doing the same time here. middle of March
++|221 |00:41:39,300 ~-~-> 00:41:48,930 |going into April, they're really reducing their shorts, see how they're covering their shorts at the same timeframe. open interest is declining, while prices in
++|222 |00:41:48,930 ~-~-> 00:41:59,310 |a consolidation. While price is trading at a key support level 79. See that level over here 79. So we can expect reasonably seasonally, we're looking for
++|223 |00:41:59,310 ~-~-> 00:42:11,160 |higher prices in the dollar weaker in the fiber and cable. Okay, so there should be a risk off scenario, risk off is going to draw participants into buying safe
++|224 |00:42:11,160 ~-~-> 00:42:21,150 |haven assets. Now one can argue that the dollar may or may not be a safe asset to most, but for instance, you can see that still unfolding here with a higher
++|225 |00:42:21,150 ~-~-> 00:42:33,780 |dollar rallying up from the April May timeframe into the summer months. So then we have this mindset that we're looking for bullish prices in here. Okay, we
++|226 |00:42:33,780 ~-~-> 00:42:43,590 |would be in a buy program all through here. Okay. So now, let's look and see if we have that same thing occurring in the British Pound at the same timeframe in
++|227 |00:42:43,590 ~-~-> 00:43:01,140 |this year in the spring. So let's go back over to the commodity tab. And we're going to the British Pound when you use the nearby contract, and click on your
++|228 |00:43:01,140 ~-~-> 00:43:08,730 |customized chart tab, and we're going to do the same thing we did with the dollar, we're going to make sure we are on candlesticks.
++|229 |00:43:10,110 ~-~-> 00:43:23,010 |We're going to look at weekly nearest I'm going to scroll to a one year chart, making sure total volume is clicked. And we're going to draw the chart. Okay.
++|230 |00:43:23,790 ~-~-> 00:43:39,630 |Now we have a weekly chart on the British pound. Okay. And you can see that April May high unfold here. So we saw price drop down. Okay, so let's add a
++|231 |00:43:39,630 ~-~-> 00:43:54,480 |little bit of time to this because it is a little This is that area right here. Okay. Now, if one takes this high here, down to this low, you can see that this
++|232 |00:43:54,480 ~-~-> 00:44:04,320 |is an optimal trade entry. Okay, this is an area where we would expect implied resistance. Also noting that we did take out this old high as well. So price was
++|233 |00:44:04,890 ~-~-> 00:44:16,530 |really in it was free to find lower prices because we're seeing higher prices poised in the dollar at the same timeframe. April May. Now also note that we
++|234 |00:44:16,530 ~-~-> 00:44:29,610 |were in a range between this, this low, okay, and this old high in here. Okay, now we did break out. Okay, we did break out there, but we saw a rapid increase
++|235 |00:44:29,850 ~-~-> 00:44:38,550 |in open interest. Okay, so what does that mean? That the open interest is increasing while within our larger trading range. Okay. And one could argue
++|236 |00:44:38,550 ~-~-> 00:44:47,610 |really, this is a large trading range here. We had a rapid increase of the open interest here gave up just a little bit before this run off. But ultimately
++|237 |00:44:47,610 ~-~-> 00:44:56,190 |we're at a rate back and above the previous open interest here with shorts. So they quickly added all those shorts back while we round rallied up into a new
++|238 |00:44:56,190 ~-~-> 00:45:04,260 |high higher than this one. But we did not get back to this old high as well. So we repack into this range. Okay, so think about what we covered in the webinar
++|239 |00:45:04,290 ~-~-> 00:45:14,940 |inside the range. And that concept is unfolding here. So now watch, we're going to be looking for this open interest or increase in shorts, okay to be confirmed
++|240 |00:45:14,940 ~-~-> 00:45:24,000 |with what and and that traders position? Well, if we pull that chart off, we should be seeing what we should be seeing commodity, I'm sorry, commercial
++|241 |00:45:24,000 ~-~-> 00:45:35,100 |traders. Going net short, or adding to net short positions. Okay. And we're going to do this by adding a chart here.
++|242 |00:45:42,510 ~-~-> 00:45:52,860 |Okay, so now if we see the open interest in client increase like this, okay, we would expect to see what in the net traders decision chart, we want to see an
++|243 |00:45:52,860 ~-~-> 00:46:04,380 |increase of net short selling or net short position or rapid reduction in their net long position that would confirm this, okay, as commercials themselves,
++|244 |00:46:04,590 ~-~-> 00:46:16,920 |doing what? expecting lower prices. So we go down here to this add study tab, click on that go to commercial Commitment of Traders line chart, add that and
++|245 |00:46:16,920 ~-~-> 00:46:17,340 |draw.
++|246 |00:46:22,980 ~-~-> 00:46:35,100 |Okay, and you can see here we have the chart noted. We see here and you can see the red line here. And we're gonna we're gonna change it to a one year so we can
++|247 |00:46:35,100 ~-~-> 00:46:45,360 |see a little bit clear. And if by clicking on the one year, we'll see that this red line here delineates the commercial activity, okay, and you see how they
++|248 |00:46:45,360 ~-~-> 00:46:54,450 |rapidly dropped down from net long and net short while the open interest was increasing. So that was a confirmation that we were seeing net short, commercial
++|249 |00:46:54,480 ~-~-> 00:47:04,110 |short selling, okay, so if we see both open interest increasing like this, and the red line here, delineating commercial traders, okay, they went from net long
++|250 |00:47:04,500 ~-~-> 00:47:17,040 |to net short going into May. Okay, so we saw this rally as a suspect, false fake out type of move here. And we just ran out this old high, and then obviously
++|251 |00:47:17,040 ~-~-> 00:47:26,940 |rejected it very harshly. Now, this was the net short position, okay, held by the commercial traders expecting the top performing that British Pound at a
++|252 |00:47:26,940 ~-~-> 00:47:36,690 |seasonal time frame when the dollar was poised to rally, okay, and seasonally when the British Pound was expected to go lower. Okay, so now we've confirmed
++|253 |00:47:36,690 ~-~-> 00:47:49,380 |two sides of the market, the dollar and the British pound. So let's see if we can see some support also in the euro. So I'm gonna go over to this tab here.
++|254 |00:47:50,730 ~-~-> 00:48:06,090 |We're gonna go into the Euro FX tab. And we're gonna use the first contract month over to customize, scroll down. And what we're gonna do is, make sure
++|255 |00:48:06,090 ~-~-> 00:48:20,670 |we're on candlesticks, we're going to use the weekly nearest one year, making sure our total volume is clicked. And we're going to draw the chart and we will
++|256 |00:48:20,670 ~-~-> 00:48:34,770 |arrive at the euro. Okay, and we have the march april timeframe in here. Notice that the fiber was unwilling to make a higher high here. Okay, so we have that
++|257 |00:48:34,800 ~-~-> 00:48:46,470 |divergence, okay, between the pairs. So we have SMP divergence during a seasonal time when we expect the fiber and cable to decline. We also expect to see the
++|258 |00:48:46,470 ~-~-> 00:48:59,490 |dollar to rally. Okay, so by seeing that, we also note that we have a trading range in here. Okay, the price is trading in the trading range. Okay, that's it.
++|259 |00:48:59,490 ~-~-> 00:49:07,290 |Same thing, just inverse relationship between the dollar and the euro. Remember, we had the same thing happening in the dollar. During the spring of this year in
++|260 |00:49:07,290 ~-~-> 00:49:18,150 |2012. We saw the dollar ranging and then expected to see higher prices because open interest declined. And commercial short selling was rapidly reduced. Okay,
++|261 |00:49:18,270 ~-~-> 00:49:27,870 |in the dollar. So that's bullish. So we we seen the same thing, hopefully in a mirror image on the fiber. We're in consolidation. Okay, April May time period.
++|262 |00:49:27,870 ~-~-> 00:49:37,500 |So between this vertical line and this vertical line right in here, okay, we're in a range. Notice we saw open interest increasing. Okay, that's a nice increase
++|263 |00:49:37,500 ~-~-> 00:49:46,320 |of open interest during a timeframe in the year when we would expect to see weaker prices. Also, we have optimal trade entry from this high to this low
++|264 |00:49:46,320 ~-~-> 00:49:53,790 |trade right up into that the beginning of April. Okay, so we now have optimal trade entry during a time when we're seasonally weak, and we're expecting
++|265 |00:49:54,150 ~-~-> 00:50:10,110 |firmness in the dollar. Okay, and now let's go and add the commercials By co T, and the Commitment of Traders line chart, add that quick draw. Okay, and you can
++|266 |00:50:10,110 ~-~-> 00:50:29,580 |see here we had the reduction. Okay, now once we had open issues increasing here, wow, we also saw the commercials. In this case actually adding a little
++|267 |00:50:29,580 ~-~-> 00:50:42,600 |bit of their net longs in here. Okay, they were already net long above the zero line here. So they were all along here, basically trying to catch this low here.
++|268 |00:50:42,600 ~-~-> 00:50:54,360 |So they're buying all this decline from this high down lower. So when price started to whip lower below this low here, at that very moment, between April
++|269 |00:50:54,360 ~-~-> 00:51:06,120 |and May, there was really no increase of selling. In fact, they were actually buying more of it in here. Okay, so it's in this example, it acts much like the
++|270 |00:51:06,210 ~-~-> 00:51:18,300 |SMT, where we have the confirmation in the cable and the dollar. But on a CRT, we don't really see it here. Okay, we've been maintaining a very large,
++|271 |00:51:19,590 ~-~-> 00:51:24,840 |net long position on the commercials, let's go and pull up three years of that, and you'll see what I mean.
++|272 |00:51:30,389 ~-~-> 00:51:42,389 |You can see that we've had a net long position by the commercials for a very long time. And while we did drop down in here, there was no real indication that
++|273 |00:51:42,389 ~-~-> 00:51:53,969 |there was additional short selling here, okay, they were lessening their Long's here going into April. So that's the insight eagerly not necessarily this one
++|274 |00:51:53,969 ~-~-> 00:52:03,749 |here. So we did lose some net longs here. So we have confirmation in that regard. But between April and May, there was nothing to indicate the movement
++|275 |00:52:04,589 ~-~-> 00:52:15,659 |was confirmed between commercials and open interest at that particular moment. But if you look at this scale, that we have here, on the three year, you see how
++|276 |00:52:17,309 ~-~-> 00:52:27,449 |we had open interest increasing. And here, we had open interest increasing in here. While we saw a reduction of the long sets more or less essentially the
++|277 |00:52:27,449 ~-~-> 00:52:37,979 |same thing. They're lessening their Long's. Okay, which is increasing their short positions, while open interest increased in here while we're in this
++|278 |00:52:38,039 ~-~-> 00:52:49,109 |range. Okay, so that was the catalyst for confirmation on the higher timeframe. So while they didn't exactly line up between cable and fiber, the both of them
++|279 |00:52:49,109 ~-~-> 00:52:58,499 |more or less had the indication going in. So fiber was giving it up here early. And as you can see, it's also supported with the fact that they were unable to
++|280 |00:52:58,499 ~-~-> 00:53:10,499 |make a higher high here in April when the cable was able to do that. Alright. So that's one way of applying open interest, looking for the reduction and
++|281 |00:53:10,499 ~-~-> 00:53:22,079 |increasing of open interest for measuring smart money in the form of commercial traders and using the co2 graph. And now, we had this stage set for weaker
++|282 |00:53:22,079 ~-~-> 00:53:35,939 |prices in the spring of 2012. So now we have more or less the large macro view. Okay, couple that with the interest rate market now, because now we have the
++|283 |00:53:35,939 ~-~-> 00:53:50,849 |CBOT open interest, supporting the notion that the seasonal tendency for weaker Cabling and Fiber and higher dollar in the spring, we see that also supporting
++|284 |00:53:50,849 ~-~-> 00:54:03,539 |the interest rate insights that we've already looked at. And now we have a sell program. Okay in place, now we can look for shorts, we can start selling, okay,
++|285 |00:54:04,319 ~-~-> 00:54:18,539 |for short position going into the summer months. Okay, we're looking at the Dollar Index. This is a daily chart, and we're zoomed in to the April month of
++|286 |00:54:18,539 ~-~-> 00:54:32,609 |2012. And we're looking at this. Again, seasonal tendency for the market to decline on the British pound and usually be a risk off scenario. And obviously,
++|287 |00:54:32,609 ~-~-> 00:54:45,479 |we'll be looking for a reverse scenario which would be bullish for the US dollar. And we noted already this swing here. This is optimal trade entry in
++|288 |00:54:45,479 ~-~-> 00:54:57,449 |here where price would have been rallying from or we would expect to see a rally from and sweetspot comes in at 178 85. So this would be a catalyst for upside,
++|289 |00:54:57,929 ~-~-> 00:55:12,629 |momentum for the dollar. Looking for this old high and this old high as upside objectives. At the same time that this is occurring, we expect to see weakness
++|290 |00:55:12,779 ~-~-> 00:55:26,219 |in the stock indices to participate a risk off scenario. We saw the Dow this year in April make a very modestly higher high here and this little rectangles
++|291 |00:55:26,219 ~-~-> 00:55:37,589 |delineating the month of April as well. So we see a modestly higher high here, but let's look at the daily on the s&p the same timeframe. We have a lower high
++|292 |00:55:37,859 ~-~-> 00:55:47,609 |okay see that now we already have an SMP divergence between the stock indices. And obviously the NASDAQ Composite Index also That same month was a built to
++|293 |00:55:48,239 ~-~-> 00:55:59,459 |post a lower high Okay, so we have SMP divergence indicating that we have underlying weakness. Okay, you know, what is this rally up into April May time
++|294 |00:55:59,459 ~-~-> 00:56:10,379 |period, stock averages were not able to confirm one another. So Dow theory suggests that there's probably waning momentum. And don't be so aggressive in
++|295 |00:56:10,379 ~-~-> 00:56:21,719 |terms of buying because you may be seeing a withdraw or retracement lower. Let's go back to the dollar. Okay, and let's look at what happened from that point.
++|296 |00:56:24,359 ~-~-> 00:56:32,639 |Okay, you see, obviously, the dollar itself rallied on up from this high
++|297 |00:56:34,620 ~-~-> 00:56:49,650 |in this low here, this range. Okay, if we look at just that, we can get some upside objectives for the dollar. Okay, and what we're doing is we're looking
++|298 |00:56:49,650 ~-~-> 00:57:02,400 |for obviously, objectives, looking for potential areas where price may shoot to, here's the 162 extension, and a 200 extension here. Okay, now once price broke
++|299 |00:57:02,400 ~-~-> 00:57:11,310 |above this high, this swing, okay, is fine, you can still use those targets, but we got to go to the left side of the chart and look at the larger magnitude
++|300 |00:57:11,310 ~-~-> 00:57:22,860 |price swing that we're working with instead, it's this high to this low. So we will use our fib tool from that high and pull it down to the lowest low in that
++|301 |00:57:23,490 ~-~-> 00:57:35,310 |fractal. Okay, so we have this high down to this low. And we will be looking for the 127 extension for upside objectives here. And 162 extension which nails the
++|302 |00:57:35,310 ~-~-> 00:57:45,510 |high here. And moving forward, you can see the dollar had slipped off precipitously from that point. Now we can see hopefully here the value of using
++|303 |00:57:45,510 ~-~-> 00:57:55,560 |a higher macro view analysis approach to your trading. And if you see this type of event unfolding in the dollar, the same thing should be happening in the
++|304 |00:57:55,560 ~-~-> 00:58:07,830 |reverse, okay, on the downside on your other asset classes, and let's look at the daily on the Dow Jones. We saw price obviously slipped lower as well. Okay,
++|305 |00:58:07,830 ~-~-> 00:58:20,850 |confirming that upward momentum in the dollar. The s&p 500 also broke down and slipped lower. And the NASDAQ composite, not surprising, slipped lower as well.
++|306 |00:58:22,410 ~-~-> 00:58:31,950 |Now let's look at the fiber. Okay, and what I have here is the April monthly linear between the two red vertical lines, okay, and we're looking at the fact
++|307 |00:58:31,950 ~-~-> 00:58:40,470 |that we were unable to make a higher high here. Okay, and just for a second, let's just shoot over to the cable. And you can see how in that same time frame
++|308 |00:58:40,470 ~-~-> 00:58:51,060 |in the month of April, the cable was willing and able to make a higher high. Okay, so let's go back to the fiber for a second. This, this market absolutely
++|309 |00:58:51,210 ~-~-> 00:58:59,850 |posted weaker technicals across the board. In other words, between the two pairs, fiber and cable because they're so closely correlated, they usually trade
++|310 |00:58:59,850 ~-~-> 00:59:10,500 |in sympathy. But as you can see here, the s&p divergence correlated pair s&p divergence was showing that there was absolutely no interest whatsoever going
++|311 |00:59:10,500 ~-~-> 00:59:20,790 |long in the fiber. And if you recall back in when I was doing reviews, we were talking about this market being the weaker of the sisters all during this
++|312 |00:59:20,790 ~-~-> 00:59:31,080 |particular timeframe. And this is really the catalyst for my my viewpoints while saying it real time in advance for the markets were trading. We were looking for
++|313 |00:59:32,070 ~-~-> 00:59:43,470 |this old low to be traded to back in here. Okay, so and also back here as well. Now, this high and this high here, notice that we were lower here. Okay, so we
++|314 |00:59:43,470 ~-~-> 00:59:55,590 |have February's high and April's high lower in the fiber. Let's go over to the cable. Notice we were going higher in the cable, just February's high and
++|315 |00:59:55,590 ~-~-> 01:00:03,600 |April's high so we were posting higher highs in the cable. This was the relatively slow Longer of the two pairs. So when there was a buying opportunity,
++|316 |01:00:03,750 ~-~-> 01:00:13,470 |we could be buying in here, okay, and be more confident that the market is going to be more favorable for us as a bull if we're short term trader, but we're
++|317 |01:00:13,470 ~-~-> 01:00:23,850 |focusing on the higher timeframe, intermediate term basis. So we're looking for what the sell scenario. And that being the case with the fiber, okay, so you
++|318 |01:00:23,850 ~-~-> 01:00:37,830 |could look to sell this market here, going into the seasonal timeframe from this high and the low, you can see we have optimal trade entry in here. And price did
++|319 |01:00:37,830 ~-~-> 01:00:59,430 |slide off the cable at that same time frame. We had a larger price swing from this high down to this low that the cable was retracing in. Okay, so let's pull
++|320 |01:00:59,430 ~-~-> 01:01:10,350 |that up. You can see here's the sweet spot. Okay, here's a 70.5 fib level, price went right to that level exactly to that level.
++|321 |01:01:10,530 ~-~-> 01:01:24,150 |Okay. And I posted market review, and a daily review suggesting that I would be shorting at 163 a break above 163. Figure. Okay, so if you go back to that
++|322 |01:01:24,150 ~-~-> 01:01:33,240 |timeframe, and look at the videos, you'll actually see me talk about being short here. And this is the reason why we're within that April time period for
++|323 |01:01:33,240 ~-~-> 01:01:45,240 |seasonally expecting a decline. Okay, we went up into a higher time frame, implied resistance level, we're at a figure 163. Okay, so even though we were
++|324 |01:01:45,240 ~-~-> 01:01:54,870 |bullish compared to the fiber comparably, we are still within a timeframe when the price itself should be running out of steam. And when we get to these levels
++|325 |01:01:54,870 ~-~-> 01:02:03,420 |like this, so far deep into a retracement of these price swings, you got to expect some weakness. So now let's look at what's happening here. Also, we have
++|326 |01:02:03,420 ~-~-> 01:02:20,670 |the high end April and the high end may higher in the cable. Let's go back to the dollar. Look what's happening here. We have lower, albeit not by much, we
++|327 |01:02:20,670 ~-~-> 01:02:40,410 |have a lower low here than here. Okay, so the dollar was lower. The cable confirms it higher. Let's go back to fiber. See this? There's a USDA USDA SMT
++|328 |01:02:40,410 ~-~-> 01:02:51,180 |diversions. Okay. So this tells you that you have a very, very large price swing, possibly unfolding. Going forward, this tells you that it's going to be
++|329 |01:02:51,390 ~-~-> 01:03:02,160 |bearish for the fiber. Okay. And since tandem, trading occurs in cable and fiber generally, and you're looking for higher prices in the dollar, you can get
++|330 |01:03:02,160 ~-~-> 01:03:15,540 |yourself in sync with a very, very handsome intermediate term short. And looking at this high here, down to this low in here is a sweet spot and price went right
++|331 |01:03:15,540 ~-~-> 01:03:25,590 |up to that point by the PIP and then fell out of bed. And let's look at what happened here. Price does in fact, trade down below this low in fact, smaller
++|332 |01:03:25,590 ~-~-> 01:03:39,090 |minor bounce in here and then finally broke through. Okay, and eventually even traded even lower than that. If you use the Fibonacci concept we talked about
++|333 |01:03:39,120 ~-~-> 01:03:55,290 |for this plan, we look for 127 extensions, 162 extensions and the 200 extension, this price swing is what we're going to use going lower. Okay, so if you use
++|334 |01:03:55,290 ~-~-> 01:04:04,290 |this low, up to this high once price structure, I'm sorry, market structure breaks this low here, you're gonna be looking for the 127 extension which it
++|335 |01:04:04,290 ~-~-> 01:04:11,730 |finds here and some lamp bounces and looking even gives you another optimal trade entry to get short. Okay, this is a way of jumping ahead really is the
++|336 |01:04:11,730 ~-~-> 01:04:23,310 |short term trading part of the series. But price let's give it a correction here trades right up into old support broken now resistance falls out of bed and goes
++|337 |01:04:23,310 ~-~-> 01:04:34,980 |what 162 extension. And obviously, price had snapped away from that rather handsomely. So getting short here on the notion that we are entering into the
++|338 |01:04:34,980 ~-~-> 01:04:44,430 |seasonal time period and looking for s&p divergence is one avenue here that you could have got short. If you missed this one. This was the other opportunity to
++|339 |01:04:44,430 ~-~-> 01:04:57,750 |get short. Okay and ride it lower. And that rather handsome price swing if you look at what transpired just from the original high here in April down to the
++|340 |01:04:57,780 ~-~-> 01:05:18,360 |162 extension That's 12 130 pips. Okay? And if you got this second entry in here, using the first of May area, it's 11 51,150 pips. Okay, so not bad in
++|341 |01:05:18,360 ~-~-> 01:05:26,430 |terms of, you know, Pip hauls takes a little bit of time to get these guys, it doesn't happen overnight, but you got to really hold on to it and just have a
++|342 |01:05:26,430 ~-~-> 01:05:40,500 |lot of patience with them unfolding. If you look at the cable, once price gets up into this, inside the range concept, the sweet spot 163 is a big figure as
++|343 |01:05:40,500 ~-~-> 01:05:51,510 |well. We are still within the April seasonal decline time period. We have USD x SMT we have correlated pair SMT weaker highs comparable to the higher high in
++|344 |01:05:51,510 ~-~-> 01:06:01,860 |the cable here. So now what's what's going on in the lower timeframe? Okay, let's, let's just use a hourly chart.
++|345 |01:06:03,480 ~-~-> 01:06:19,140 |Okay, here's what's happening price trades up into that 163 figure trades off, okay? Now as price trades lower like that, okay, it comes down into that 160 2%
++|346 |01:06:19,800 ~-~-> 01:06:30,750 |level here on a higher timeframe, Priceline finds a little bit short term support level wnc breaks down below and looking comes right back up to that same
++|347 |01:06:30,750 ~-~-> 01:06:51,150 |level here again, see what it does here. runs into it as resistance and in slides away. Again, aggressive move lower. Okay. Now let's add to this the day
++|348 |01:06:51,150 ~-~-> 01:07:05,130 |separators. Okay. Now, if you've missed the shorting straight up into the 163, figure, okay, you have a short term, high here, we have a higher high here,
++|349 |01:07:05,640 ~-~-> 01:07:14,700 |lower high here, and a lower high here. So this is a daily swing point, this high, this lower low, I'm sorry, lower high and lower high here. Okay, so we do
++|350 |01:07:14,700 ~-~-> 01:07:27,210 |have swing point here. So now we could be looking to get short beyond that point in here. Okay, you can use optimal trade entries, you can use reflections,
++|351 |01:07:27,240 ~-~-> 01:07:41,070 |anything that you use to trade on your pattern, that's you start hunting, okay, and we also have a higher price swing point on a weekly basis. Okay, see these
++|352 |01:07:41,070 ~-~-> 01:07:55,830 |double lines here. And here. And here. We have the high of that week. So between this double set and this double set the highest here, then we have the high here
++|353 |01:07:56,370 ~-~-> 01:08:08,790 |between these two, and then we have the high here between this set and this set. So what is that that is a weekly swing high. So we have the high, lower high and
++|354 |01:08:08,790 ~-~-> 01:08:21,210 |lower high. pull that up on your own weekly chart, you'll see what I'm referring to. Now when you have that also, okay, that's when you have the acceleration in
++|355 |01:08:21,210 ~-~-> 01:08:33,510 |the price movement much much more aggressively. Moving lower, okay. And when we see the high, low, lower high here on the new week, okay, going into Monday and
++|356 |01:08:33,510 ~-~-> 01:08:46,680 |Tuesday, using the how to capture explosive profits in the Forex concept we used in that video. You're looking for Monday to Tuesday's London open to a different
++|357 |01:08:46,800 ~-~-> 01:08:57,090 |job presenting you the highs of the week. This is where this takes place we have Sunday trading Monday runs up okay and makes the high on Monday. Then trades off
++|358 |01:08:57,120 ~-~-> 01:09:07,080 |now if you missed that, that's fine. Don't Don't chase price you don't need you don't need to worry about rushing into it. Once you have now a daily and or
++|359 |01:09:07,110 ~-~-> 01:09:19,860 |weekly swing high, you can use the high down to this low here. And look what you have. You have the 79 seven treatment level laying directly on top of this
++|360 |01:09:19,860 ~-~-> 01:09:32,940 |higher timeframe fib level that we just drew off the daily Okay, that's the 62% retracement level on the daily and now we have overlapping fibs.
++|361 |01:09:38,640 ~-~-> 01:09:51,240 |One, a one hour chart conversion right here for a optimal trade entry. This is a nice sucker rally. It gets everybody excited chasing it but this time of day is
++|362 |01:09:51,240 ~-~-> 01:10:01,140 |New York open so you could be selling in New York open to get in sync with the higher timeframe and then ride it lower. Okay and positioned there. You can see
++|363 |01:10:01,830 ~-~-> 01:10:16,380 |rather handsome declines. And these are the moves that you want to hold on to during intermediate term, price swing for our chart, and this is that
++|364 |01:10:16,410 ~-~-> 01:10:26,970 |opportunity for seasonal decline in April here. And this is that lower high going into the beginning of April, if you use the high here in price trades
++|365 |01:10:26,970 ~-~-> 01:10:38,280 |down, if you look at the high here, four down to that low, you see out price because we have this nice retracement level, and stays there for a little bit.
++|366 |01:10:38,430 ~-~-> 01:10:50,760 |And it finally breaks down. Okay. Notice also that we have smaller optimal trade entries in that same area. And you have a here as well here this high, low in
++|367 |01:10:50,760 ~-~-> 01:11:00,990 |here and it breaks down. See, this is why you have to understand how price can be fractal. Okay, it's not it's not a hard concept to learn if you spend some
++|368 |01:11:00,990 ~-~-> 01:11:10,140 |time with it, but you have to definitely go through high timeframe charts and start breaking them down and looking at specific turning points. The absolute
++|369 |01:11:11,160 ~-~-> 01:11:22,110 |seasonal month that we're we're highlighting here is if we if you look at the high here to this low, okay, and the reason why I'm pulling this because these
++|370 |01:11:22,110 ~-~-> 01:11:30,270 |are the highest high amongst all these candles, and this is the lowest low amongst all these candles, okay, and price goes right back up to the sweet spot,
++|371 |01:11:30,840 ~-~-> 01:11:42,450 |which is an overlapping of this higher timeframe fib level one here. Okay, so you can see how that converges. So you can get short in here, one, even the
++|372 |01:11:42,450 ~-~-> 01:11:54,300 |132 50 level would have been a nice opportunity to get short here. And going much lower. So again, much in the same vein that we shown with the cable, you
++|373 |01:11:54,300 ~-~-> 01:12:06,120 |can see how price did fall rather handsomely in the fiber. And again, here's that bounce at an old low, came up and gave you the optimal trade entry in here.
++|374 |01:12:07,710 ~-~-> 01:12:17,820 |And we'll just do that. draw that in here real quick just for sake of completion. And say nice, recent loved one here and you get down to our five
++|375 |01:12:17,820 ~-~-> 01:12:26,700 |minute chart, you can actually see trade entry in here on this smaller minor price swing. So again, alerts, fractal pattern, within higher timeframe fractal
++|376 |01:12:26,700 ~-~-> 01:12:36,600 |that's broken down to a smaller factor, which is you know, what we're showing here. So even even looking at how price breaks down from these larger
++|377 |01:12:36,600 ~-~-> 01:12:45,930 |intermediate term price swings, and then 162 extension look out doesn't give you much in terms of movement below that before it snaps away. Okay, now, if you
++|378 |01:12:45,930 ~-~-> 01:12:56,280 |held on to it, and it breaks this high here, once price runs above that you have now break or market structure shift. Okay, so you don't want to just collapse
++|379 |01:12:56,280 ~-~-> 01:13:05,280 |the trade there, you want to wait for the try to retest and get back down to these lows, and Mike using another optimal trade entry. Okay, you can see a
++|380 |01:13:05,280 ~-~-> 01:13:15,270 |better place to cover your short and set is getting out here and panicking, you can get out down here at the 162 extension. And then obviously, price starts to
++|381 |01:13:15,270 ~-~-> 01:13:30,810 |move away from that. Okay, so that's what looked at you in April, staring you right in the mug, okay, for for long term, intermediate term price swings. And
++|382 |01:13:30,840 ~-~-> 01:13:41,700 |if you look at how the tools in a macro view, really help you get in sync with these trends is going to use the simple short term analysis concepts to get you
++|383 |01:13:41,700 ~-~-> 01:13:51,900 |in the trades Judas swings, intraday optimal trade entries using the weekly concept of looking for the weekly high Monday to Tuesday's long and open and
++|384 |01:13:51,900 ~-~-> 01:14:03,210 |then order the very latest Wednesday's London open. And if you're in bullish environments, you would use the weekly monday tuesday London open for the low of
++|385 |01:14:03,210 ~-~-> 01:14:11,040 |the week to form and or the latest Wednesday's on an open to capture the weekly low and then get in sync with that and try to hold on to these things as long as
++|386 |01:14:11,040 ~-~-> 01:14:20,220 |you possibly can. It's very difficult. If you're always just looking at every minor price swing in the market while you're in these. That's why it's it's much
++|387 |01:14:20,220 ~-~-> 01:14:25,260 |better if you're going to have this concept in trading and still do short term trading, you need to have separate accounts obviously.
++|388 |01:14:26,880 ~-~-> 01:14:39,030 |But you just put the trade on and let the stops stay outside of you know, potential striking distance. And by that I mean if you get short in here, you
++|389 |01:14:39,030 ~-~-> 01:14:46,860 |let it run down for a while before you do anything with trailing stop losses inside of that because price can come back and tag you and then you'll miss all
++|390 |01:14:46,860 ~-~-> 01:14:56,490 |this. Okay, so you want to look for support levels to be broken like it does here and then comes back and retest it and trades lower. Then Then move your
++|391 |01:14:56,490 ~-~-> 01:15:05,580 |stop into a profitable area where you can lock in a very small portion of the profit. And then don't chase it, don't trail down too tight, learn to scale out
++|392 |01:15:05,580 ~-~-> 01:15:12,480 |profits going down at the reasonable predetermined 127 162 and 200 extensions
++|393 |01:15:23,430 ~-~-> 01:15:40,890 |fib levels for the cable. Again from this high up here, this price swing here, okay, this price swing here is the second leg of this move here. So we have to
++|394 |01:15:40,890 ~-~-> 01:15:54,750 |use this price swing, before we would ever use this one or this one. Okay. So with that concept, let's take a look at the lowest low candle here. And that
++|395 |01:15:54,750 ~-~-> 01:16:10,380 |high. Okay, and here is the 127. Extension. And here's the 162 extension. And then here's the 200 extension here. Okay, you can see how price came down,
++|396 |01:16:10,920 ~-~-> 01:16:23,610 |didn't get to this old low, but they get to 200. So you could have scaled off, obviously 50% of the position. Once you get half profit, I'm sorry, 3030 pips,
++|397 |01:16:23,760 ~-~-> 01:16:42,210 |move to breakeven, and then look for you 127 extension, now you could take 30% off of the total position, okay, or you could take 1020 at 62. And then leave
++|398 |01:16:42,210 ~-~-> 01:16:53,190 |the remaining portion that you reach for 200. Or you could just take the remaining 50% divided by 30 of the original position, take it off at 127. And
++|399 |01:16:53,190 ~-~-> 01:17:04,650 |then the remaining 20% would be off at 162 extension and not reach for the 200. Or you could just you know, go for broke. And once it takes 127 out and starts
++|400 |01:17:04,650 ~-~-> 01:17:13,020 |reaching for 160 to show your stop down to the 127 for the remaining portion. So you can you know, if it comes back up, at least you can get out with your
++|401 |01:17:13,020 ~-~-> 01:17:23,130 |remaining half at, you know, a nice logical area to take profits. And if it gets down to 160 to take half of it, they're off and then the remaining 25% reach for
++|402 |01:17:23,490 ~-~-> 01:17:33,060 |200 and and show your stop just above the 162 extension, okay. But there's a lot of different ways and I'm trying not to give you a very clear black and white
++|403 |01:17:34,050 ~-~-> 01:17:42,240 |way of doing it because I want you to have some input on your own. There's a lot of freestyling you can do with these using analysis concepts. And again,
++|404 |01:17:42,240 ~-~-> 01:17:52,380 |hopefully this has just been providing you as an example on how to intermediate term swing trade. And using the higher timeframe macro views to get in sync with
++|405 |01:17:52,440 ~-~-> 01:18:01,890 |with the market and expect learn to anticipate price moves and in using the smaller time frame concepts we've used in the other videos to help you with your
++|406 |01:18:01,890 ~-~-> 01:18:12,780 |timing and such and those being the optimal trade entry video. high probability price patterns video and obviously you need to be cognizant of the risk and
++|407 |01:18:12,780 ~-~-> 01:18:22,650 |equity management so so those videos you know, they're very insightful and applicable obviously for this this tutorial so I'm gonna close it here and
++|408 |01:18:22,650 ~-~-> 01:18:30,210 |hopefully this has been insightful to you guys. And if you have any questions, obviously just post them on the forums that baby pips calm and until then I wish
++|409 |01:18:30,210 ~-~-> 01:18:31,560 |you good luck and good trading.
--2
--00:01:45,540 ~-~-> 00:01:49,170
--trading plan example. Now what we're going to cover in this
--
--3
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--module is going to be just an example like it states here.
--
--4
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--There's going to me certain aspects of this particular
--
--5
--00:01:56,790 ~-~-> 00:02:03,090
--example of a plan where I can In suggest that you could use
--
--6
--00:02:03,180 ~-~-> 00:02:07,170
--other tools or applications and where I note those,
--
--7
--00:02:07,170 ~-~-> 00:02:12,780
--obviously you can use the suggested mediums and tools at
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--8
--00:02:12,780 ~-~-> 00:02:16,740
--that time. It's not meant for you to use this as a specific
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--9
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--trading plan. I'm not advocating that you take this and run
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--10
--00:02:20,040 ~-~-> 00:02:22,800
--with it, just invest real money with it. It's meant to
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--11
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--stimulate prudent decision making on your part. Determine
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--12
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--whether or not you have the patience and faculties really to
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--13
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--be trader and follow a plan of this nature. And obviously,
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--14
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--if we're talking about intermediate term trading, duration,
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--15
--00:02:40,890 ~-~-> 00:02:44,430
--the trade is absolutely absolutely different than what most
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--16
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--folks are doing in terms of forex. By that means I'm
--
--17
--00:02:48,180 ~-~-> 00:02:52,500
--referring to intraday and scalp trading. This is not very
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--18
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--short term trading, its entire timeframe. Premise,
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--19
--00:02:56,460 ~-~-> 00:02:59,190
--predominantly, and your trades are going to take a whole lot
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--20
--00:02:59,190 ~-~-> 00:03:04,410
--of time to set up. And also equally more time to unfold to
--
--21
--00:03:04,410 ~-~-> 00:03:10,650
--its completion. So, this module will, more or less demand a
--
--22
--00:03:10,650 ~-~-> 00:03:14,550
--level of patience that probably the majority of traders will
--
--23
--00:03:14,550 ~-~-> 00:03:18,030
--not have it at the early stages of their development.
--
--24
--00:03:24,870 ~-~-> 00:03:27,330
--Alright, we're going to talk with the general market and the
--
--25
--00:03:27,360 ~-~-> 00:03:31,050
--overall trading plan outline for trading intermediate term.
--
--26
--00:03:32,250 ~-~-> 00:03:34,920
--Obviously, the timeframe that we're gonna be trading is the
--
--27
--00:03:34,920 ~-~-> 00:03:37,860
--daily chart. Okay, the trading plan outline. Now, the
--
--28
--00:03:37,860 ~-~-> 00:03:40,950
--timeframe that we are trading in this specific example is
--
--29
--00:03:40,950 ~-~-> 00:03:45,930
--going to be referred to predominantly the daily chart. And
--
--30
--00:03:45,930 ~-~-> 00:03:48,960
--its primary focus in this plan is to trade the intermediate
--
--31
--00:03:48,960 ~-~-> 00:03:53,250
--term price swings found on daily chart. Typically, trade
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--32
--00:03:53,250 ~-~-> 00:03:56,190
--durations will last anywhere between several weeks to as
--
--33
--00:03:56,190 ~-~-> 00:04:01,830
--many as months now in this Plan we're going to classify
--
--34
--00:04:01,860 ~-~-> 00:04:04,740
--bullish conditions in bearish conditions. Okay, and this is
--
--35
--00:04:04,740 ~-~-> 00:04:08,220
--more or less the, the market environment that will
--
--36
--00:04:08,790 ~-~-> 00:04:13,740
--facilitate buys and sells. First we're obviously gonna look
--
--37
--00:04:13,740 ~-~-> 00:04:16,890
--at the bullish conditions. And typically when you enter a
--
--38
--00:04:16,890 ~-~-> 00:04:19,830
--seasonal tendency when you would expect a bullish market,
--
--39
--00:04:20,400 ~-~-> 00:04:25,410
--obviously, that sets you on, on alert to look for terms or
--
--40
--00:04:25,440 ~-~-> 00:04:28,140
--buying conditions in the marketplace that will facilitate
--
--41
--00:04:28,620 ~-~-> 00:04:33,660
--long positions. We're going to be watching the interest
--
--42
--00:04:33,660 ~-~-> 00:04:36,840
--rates, okay. And we wouldn't be expecting interest rates to
--
--43
--00:04:36,840 ~-~-> 00:04:42,210
--be moving higher and or looking for divergence, okay in the
--
--44
--00:04:42,210 ~-~-> 00:04:46,560
--yields to possibly indicate that we're battling out in the
--
--45
--00:04:46,560 ~-~-> 00:04:50,430
--yield and we may be going higher because markets basically
--
--46
--00:04:50,430 ~-~-> 00:04:53,910
--seek higher yields that is going to create the risk on
--
--47
--00:04:53,910 ~-~-> 00:04:56,010
--effect that we're looking for for a bullish condition.
--
--48
--00:04:57,390 ~-~-> 00:04:59,760
--Obviously, it goes without saying, if we're looking for a
--
--49
--00:04:59,760 ~-~-> 00:05:02,910
--risk scenario, the US dollar is going to weaken at this
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--50
--00:05:02,910 ~-~-> 00:05:05,520
--timeframe. So we're going to be looking for topping
--
--51
--00:05:05,520 ~-~-> 00:05:10,620
--formations or weakening of the US dollar on the daily chart.
--
--52
--00:05:11,400 ~-~-> 00:05:14,400
--The Treasury notes, okay, two year five year and 10 year,
--
--53
--00:05:14,700 ~-~-> 00:05:17,370
--we'll be looking for those futures markets because you're
--
--54
--00:05:17,370 ~-~-> 00:05:21,300
--gonna be contrasting forex trading with the insights that we
--
--55
--00:05:21,300 ~-~-> 00:05:24,690
--gleaned from the futures market. The daily charts on two
--
--56
--00:05:24,690 ~-~-> 00:05:28,530
--five and 10 year should be declining. And because there's an
--
--57
--00:05:28,530 ~-~-> 00:05:32,400
--inversion of relationship between the yields and the futures
--
--58
--00:05:32,400 ~-~-> 00:05:37,200
--markets, tea notes will be going down on your daily charts.
--
--59
--00:05:37,440 ~-~-> 00:05:40,920
--Wow. That indicates that the interest rate itself its yield
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--60
--00:05:41,220 ~-~-> 00:05:42,240
--would be moving higher.
--
--61
--00:05:43,770 ~-~-> 00:05:46,140
--CBOT, this commodity
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--62
--00:05:48,030 ~-~-> 00:05:51,270
--tool that we use commitment traders. We're gonna be looking
--
--63
--00:05:51,270 ~-~-> 00:05:54,930
--for hopefully, the commercials being a net long position or
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--64
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--if they are net short we want to be looking for an
--
--65
--00:05:57,510 ~-~-> 00:06:01,770
--aggressively lessening of They're short positions. Okay. And
--
--66
--00:06:01,770 ~-~-> 00:06:07,080
--you can see that in open interest. sentiment, obviously, on
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--67
--00:06:07,080 ~-~-> 00:06:09,750
--the daily chart should be oversold. And the way we're going
--
--68
--00:06:09,750 ~-~-> 00:06:12,840
--to determining that is we're gonna be looking at a daily
--
--69
--00:06:12,870 ~-~-> 00:06:17,040
--Williams percent are okay, so that's going to be our tool to
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--70
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--more or less indicate to us whether or not if the market
--
--71
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--sentiment is oversold or overbought. Okay in this case since
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--72
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--we're looking for bullish conditions, ideally the sentiment
--
--73
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--should be oversold stock indices, hopefully at this time are
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--74
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--firming and or bullish, okay. So, in other words, you're
--
--75
--00:06:35,310 ~-~-> 00:06:39,420
--looking for some kind of failure swing between the major
--
--76
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--stock indices, and that would be at hopefully at a key
--
--77
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--support level commodities should be at this time bullish and
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--78
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--we would reference that would be look at the CRB index and
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--79
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--it should be trading firm to bullish at a key support level
--
--80
--00:06:54,930 ~-~-> 00:06:59,970
--and maybe even looking for a buy pattern of some sort and
--
--81
--00:07:00,000 ~-~-> 00:07:03,090
--Maybe an optimal trade entry something that nature. When I
--
--82
--00:07:03,090 ~-~-> 00:07:06,990
--say firm it means indicating a unwillingness to go lower.
--
--83
--00:07:07,260 ~-~-> 00:07:12,900
--Okay. And gold and oil obviously good benchmarks for the
--
--84
--00:07:12,900 ~-~-> 00:07:16,770
--economy, they should be firm and or too bullish as well.
--
--85
--00:07:18,780 ~-~-> 00:07:21,630
--Conversely, obviously for the bearish conditions seasonally
--
--86
--00:07:21,630 ~-~-> 00:07:25,650
--speaking, there should be a bearish market environment
--
--87
--00:07:26,040 ~-~-> 00:07:30,060
--seasonally speaking, that should set you on on alert to look
--
--88
--00:07:30,060 ~-~-> 00:07:33,990
--for sell scenarios. Interest rates at this time should be
--
--89
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--moving lower, okay because the market will shun lower
--
--90
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--yields. If the interest rates are dropping, that will
--
--91
--00:07:41,640 ~-~-> 00:07:44,400
--indicate that there's a risk off scenario and if there's a
--
--92
--00:07:44,400 ~-~-> 00:07:47,880
--risk off scenario, it goes without saying that the US dollar
--
--93
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--would be strengthening at that time. Treasury notes on a
--
--94
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--daily chart should be rising. And again, because there's an
--
--95
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--inverted relationship between yield and the futures market.
--
--96
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--The interest rates yield will be moving lower while the
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--97
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--futures daily charts on the two year five year and 10 year
--
--98
--00:08:05,970 ~-~-> 00:08:10,980
--should be rising. Me traders report the net position should
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--99
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--show commercials net short and or aggressively increasing
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--100
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--short positions and you find that with the referencing of
--
--101
--00:08:17,370 ~-~-> 00:08:21,510
--the open interest sentiment should be overbought. And again
--
--102
--00:08:21,510 ~-~-> 00:08:24,210
--it's based on a Williams percent our basis on a daily chart
--
--103
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--and we'll talk more about that when we start going in to the
--
--104
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--actual analysis. And obviously, the stock indices should be
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--105
--00:08:30,300 ~-~-> 00:08:37,260
--soft or too bearish on a daily chart so your NASDAQ dow and
--
--106
--00:08:37,260 ~-~-> 00:08:43,980
--s&p indices should be topping in here and or trading at key
--
--107
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--resistance levels respectively. commodities at this point
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--108
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--should be bearish and we will be referencing the CRB index
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--109
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--again as well hopefully looking for some kind of topping
--
--110
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--formation key resistance levels or some rejections at the
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--111
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--highs indicating that is now soft and or trading. bearishly
--
--112
--00:09:01,680 ~-~-> 00:09:05,370
--and, again, referencing the golden oil benchmark for the
--
--113
--00:09:05,370 ~-~-> 00:09:10,350
--economy should be soft. Maybe we resistance in both those
--
--114
--00:09:10,620 ~-~-> 00:09:14,820
--markets as well, seeing softer prices and maybe two, as much
--
--115
--00:09:14,820 ~-~-> 00:09:20,850
--as bearishness to facilitate further confidence in a bearish
--
--116
--00:09:20,850 ~-~-> 00:09:21,690
--market condition.
--
--117
--00:09:32,880 ~-~-> 00:09:37,050
--Okay, the anticipatory stage for this example plan.
--
--118
--00:09:37,680 ~-~-> 00:09:40,290
--Obviously, we always begin with identifying the higher
--
--119
--00:09:40,290 ~-~-> 00:09:42,990
--timeframe monthly, weekly and daily key support resistance
--
--120
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--levels, because those levels are going to be the catalyst
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--121
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--for us looking for signals. So without these levels, okay,
--
--122
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--we're not going to be taking a trade. So we must have a
--
--123
--00:09:51,930 ~-~-> 00:09:54,120
--higher timeframe monthly, weekly or daily key support
--
--124
--00:09:54,120 ~-~-> 00:09:57,450
--resistance level to facilitate trade. Okay, so we're going
--
--125
--00:09:57,450 ~-~-> 00:10:00,930
--to be waiting for these levels to be traded to Now while
--
--126
--00:10:00,930 ~-~-> 00:10:04,740
--we're waiting for a setup okay when we're seasonally
--
--127
--00:10:04,740 ~-~-> 00:10:07,920
--speaking bullish, okay, you're gonna be stalking the yields.
--
--128
--00:10:07,980 ~-~-> 00:10:11,550
--Okay, the yield triads and I'm going to refer to basically
--
--129
--00:10:12,000 ~-~-> 00:10:16,020
--my favorite pairs for this plan that being the fiber, Euro
--
--130
--00:10:16,020 ~-~-> 00:10:20,550
--USD and the cable British Pound USD pairs, okay, because
--
--131
--00:10:20,550 ~-~-> 00:10:24,270
--they are cross with the dollar if we're seasonally speaking
--
--132
--00:10:24,270 ~-~-> 00:10:27,180
--bullish, okay, what we're going to be looking for is the
--
--133
--00:10:27,270 ~-~-> 00:10:34,020
--yields, okay, five year 10 year and two year between those
--
--134
--00:10:34,140 ~-~-> 00:10:41,070
--three interest rate yields. If one fails to make a lower
--
--135
--00:10:41,070 ~-~-> 00:10:43,710
--low, okay, that's going to be a positive divergence
--
--136
--00:10:43,710 ~-~-> 00:10:46,980
--indicating there's a possible turn in yield and that may
--
--137
--00:10:47,010 ~-~-> 00:10:51,210
--indicate a possible increase in yields, which would cause a
--
--138
--00:10:51,510 ~-~-> 00:10:56,280
--bullishness and a risk on scenario. Okay? If we're
--
--139
--00:10:56,280 ~-~-> 00:11:01,290
--seasonally speaking bearish, okay. And we See the yields
--
--140
--00:11:01,560 ~-~-> 00:11:10,470
--between the US the German in the UK countries yields fail to
--
--141
--00:11:10,470 ~-~-> 00:11:15,420
--make equal highs in their yields. Okay, that's a yield triad
--
--142
--00:11:15,570 ~-~-> 00:11:18,270
--divergence, okay? And you will talk about them also
--
--143
--00:11:18,270 ~-~-> 00:11:21,900
--examples, if it's not very clear to you here, but that would
--
--144
--00:11:21,900 ~-~-> 00:11:28,170
--indicate a bearish stage in the marketplace overall so we're
--
--145
--00:11:28,170 ~-~-> 00:11:33,120
--anticipating that to unfold, okay. At the same time, we
--
--146
--00:11:33,120 ~-~-> 00:11:36,660
--would obviously be hunting the same scenario with the US
--
--147
--00:11:36,660 ~-~-> 00:11:41,610
--Dollar Index, okay, we would be looking for the lows in the
--
--148
--00:11:41,610 ~-~-> 00:11:45,480
--US Dollar Index, versus the highs and across currencies.
--
--149
--00:11:45,690 ~-~-> 00:11:49,410
--Okay. And again, we're looking at the Euro versus the Dollar
--
--150
--00:11:49,410 ~-~-> 00:11:52,710
--and the British Pound versus the Dollar. So if we're making
--
--151
--00:11:52,710 ~-~-> 00:11:55,770
--lower lows in the dollar, but failing to make higher highs
--
--152
--00:11:56,340 ~-~-> 00:12:02,820
--in one and or the both fiber and cable Then that is a USD
--
--153
--00:12:03,000 ~-~-> 00:12:09,240
--SMT divergence okay and that would be bearish for the euro
--
--154
--00:12:09,300 ~-~-> 00:12:15,090
--and or cable if the dollar was making lower lows in the Euro
--
--155
--00:12:15,090 ~-~-> 00:12:20,100
--or fiber I'm sorry yeah euro or cable was unwilling to go
--
--156
--00:12:20,100 ~-~-> 00:12:23,940
--higher debts weakness they should be confirmation between
--
--157
--00:12:24,270 ~-~-> 00:12:27,330
--the three if the dollar makes lower lows that should be seen
--
--158
--00:12:27,330 ~-~-> 00:12:30,990
--with higher highs with the fiber and cable. If there's not
--
--159
--00:12:30,990 ~-~-> 00:12:33,120
--there's a crack and correlation that may indicate something
--
--160
--00:12:34,470 ~-~-> 00:12:37,650
--monitoring highs in the US Dollar Index versus the lows and
--
--161
--00:12:37,650 ~-~-> 00:12:41,460
--across currency pairs. Okay fiber and cable. If we see
--
--162
--00:12:41,460 ~-~-> 00:12:46,020
--higher highs in the dollar and a failure to go lower in the
--
--163
--00:12:46,020 ~-~-> 00:12:49,140
--fiber or cable again, that's an SMP divergence for the US
--
--164
--00:12:49,140 ~-~-> 00:12:51,870
--Dollar Index. And that may be a cracking correlation that
--
--165
--00:12:51,870 ~-~-> 00:12:56,970
--may indicate something. Now this can also reverse itself. If
--
--166
--00:12:56,970 ~-~-> 00:13:01,560
--you see higher highs in the Euro or cable But a failure to
--
--167
--00:13:01,560 ~-~-> 00:13:05,580
--go lower on the lows on the dollar index. That is the same
--
--168
--00:13:05,580 ~-~-> 00:13:10,080
--scenario that is bullish for the dollar, which would
--
--169
--00:13:10,080 ~-~-> 00:13:14,160
--indicate bearishness for the Euro or cable. And again, this
--
--170
--00:13:14,160 ~-~-> 00:13:16,770
--has to happen at a key resistance level for it to be bearish
--
--171
--00:13:17,310 ~-~-> 00:13:21,180
--for the cross currency. Okay, the dollar index may be
--
--172
--00:13:21,180 ~-~-> 00:13:25,680
--trading down to a support level and make a higher low when
--
--173
--00:13:25,680 ~-~-> 00:13:28,800
--the key one five or maybe made a higher high, it looks
--
--174
--00:13:28,800 ~-~-> 00:13:31,710
--bullish on their charts. But behind the scenes, you can see
--
--175
--00:13:31,710 ~-~-> 00:13:34,140
--that there's actually strengthening going on at a key
--
--176
--00:13:34,140 ~-~-> 00:13:36,990
--support level for the dollar index. And again, same thing
--
--177
--00:13:36,990 ~-~-> 00:13:41,580
--happens if you reverse it if the US Dollar Index fails make
--
--178
--00:13:41,580 ~-~-> 00:13:45,450
--a higher high while the lower lows that are seen in the
--
--179
--00:13:45,450 ~-~-> 00:13:50,250
--cable or fiber are met equally and lower. There's lower lows
--
--180
--00:13:50,250 ~-~-> 00:13:54,750
--and in the cross currency euro or cable. There's a cracking
--
--181
--00:13:54,750 ~-~-> 00:13:57,300
--correlation as well. So you have to compare the highs and
--
--182
--00:13:57,300 ~-~-> 00:14:01,710
--lows between the three Okay, and That'll also segue into the
--
--183
--00:14:01,710 ~-~-> 00:14:06,390
--correlator pair SMT you're going to be looking for the lows
--
--184
--00:14:06,420 ~-~-> 00:14:11,610
--between the pound and the euro. Okay, so though generally
--
--185
--00:14:11,610 ~-~-> 00:14:16,560
--they move in tandem. If we see trading at a key support
--
--186
--00:14:16,560 ~-~-> 00:14:21,090
--level, and one fails to make a lower low, that's correlated
--
--187
--00:14:21,090 ~-~-> 00:14:24,420
--pair SMT divergence, possibly indicating there should be a
--
--188
--00:14:24,420 ~-~-> 00:14:27,990
--short term shift in the marketplace for a bounce higher. And
--
--189
--00:14:27,990 ~-~-> 00:14:29,850
--obviously comparing the highs at
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--190
--00:14:32,250 ~-~-> 00:14:36,210
--key resistance levels if the pound and euro fail to make
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--191
--00:14:36,210 ~-~-> 00:14:39,360
--equal highs, that's a correlated pair SMT possibly
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--192
--00:14:39,360 ~-~-> 00:14:42,360
--indicating some distribution in the marketplace and there
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--193
--00:14:42,360 ~-~-> 00:14:48,780
--may be a short term shift in the marketplace lower. We'll be
--
--194
--00:14:48,780 ~-~-> 00:14:52,230
--watching the stock market indices Okay, looking for SMP
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--195
--00:14:52,230 ~-~-> 00:14:57,150
--divergence as well. Looking for the Dow, s&p 500 and NASDAQ
--
--196
--00:14:57,150 ~-~-> 00:15:01,050
--Composite Index to compare comparable Make higher highs and
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--197
--00:15:01,050 ~-~-> 00:15:04,050
--lower lows if we're bullish, and we're in a bullish
--
--198
--00:15:04,050 ~-~-> 00:15:08,430
--environment and we see the Dow s&p 500 and NASDAQ trading
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--199
--00:15:08,430 ~-~-> 00:15:12,180
--lower in tandem, eventually one fails to make that lower low
--
--200
--00:15:12,630 ~-~-> 00:15:15,780
--at a key support level at a time frame when everything else
--
--201
--00:15:15,780 ~-~-> 00:15:20,520
--is lining up. That is a stock market SMT divergence Okay, so
--
--202
--00:15:20,520 ~-~-> 00:15:24,000
--we we want to be seeing confirmation we want to be measuring
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--203
--00:15:24,150 ~-~-> 00:15:27,780
--on a daily basis monitoring the overall risk on a risk off
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--204
--00:15:27,780 ~-~-> 00:15:31,500
--scenario. So using Dow Theory, essentially, we want to be
--
--205
--00:15:31,500 ~-~-> 00:15:34,800
--looking for these three averages to confirm higher highs for
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--206
--00:15:35,160 ~-~-> 00:15:39,870
--continuation on the upside and or looking for follow
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--207
--00:15:40,710 ~-~-> 00:15:43,860
--continuation and confirmation between a three as they go
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--208
--00:15:43,860 ~-~-> 00:15:46,230
--lower, there should be lower lows between the three if one
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--209
--00:15:46,290 ~-~-> 00:15:49,650
--starts to buck that trend at a key resistance or support
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--210
--00:15:49,650 ~-~-> 00:15:54,540
--level. There's an indication that you may have to pay closer
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--211
--00:15:54,540 ~-~-> 00:15:57,150
--attention because it may be something setting up or if
--
--212
--00:15:57,150 ~-~-> 00:15:59,850
--you're in a trade it may be indicating it's time to tighten
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--213
--00:15:59,850 ~-~-> 00:16:03,150
--up. stop losses and take some profits or even exit the
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--214
--00:16:03,150 ~-~-> 00:16:07,200
--trade. Again, referring to the movement traders net
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--215
--00:16:07,200 ~-~-> 00:16:10,770
--position, we're going to be looking for long positions when
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--216
--00:16:10,770 ~-~-> 00:16:13,830
--the commercials are net long. And obviously looking for
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--217
--00:16:13,830 ~-~-> 00:16:16,110
--shorts when the commercials are net short, looking at the
--
--218
--00:16:16,110 ~-~-> 00:16:18,870
--overall trend of where the commercials are trading on the
--
--219
--00:16:18,870 ~-~-> 00:16:22,440
--weekly charts, using the Commitment of Traders net position,
--
--220
--00:16:23,040 ~-~-> 00:16:26,190
--you'll be able to see where they're trading in terms of a
--
--221
--00:16:26,190 ~-~-> 00:16:29,370
--long term macro trend. And when we're getting in sync with
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--222
--00:16:29,370 ~-~-> 00:16:33,630
--that, using the si t and our timeframe, key support
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--223
--00:16:33,630 ~-~-> 00:16:39,870
--resistance levels. open interest, um, we've discussed this
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--224
--00:16:39,900 ~-~-> 00:16:42,690
--in other modules, and obviously we're not going to beat it
--
--225
--00:16:42,690 ~-~-> 00:16:45,420
--to death here. But basically it's when we're in bullish
--
--226
--00:16:45,420 ~-~-> 00:16:48,360
--condition and we're trading as support if we see a 15 to
--
--227
--00:16:48,360 ~-~-> 00:16:54,930
--20%. Drop in open interest. That is a very, very strong
--
--228
--00:16:54,930 ~-~-> 00:16:58,260
--indication that a buy signal is either forming and or it has
--
--229
--00:16:58,260 ~-~-> 00:17:02,850
--formed and it's bullish. In bearish conditions when price is
--
--230
--00:17:02,850 ~-~-> 00:17:06,150
--trading at resistance, and we see a increase in open
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--231
--00:17:06,150 ~-~-> 00:17:09,660
--interest 15 to 20% or more, it doesn't have to be just 20
--
--232
--00:17:10,050 ~-~-> 00:17:13,470
--made many times be even greater than that in terms of an
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--233
--00:17:13,470 ~-~-> 00:17:16,710
--increase. But you want to see it rapidly increasing not you
--
--234
--00:17:16,710 ~-~-> 00:17:19,380
--don't see a gradual because you want to see a rapid increase
--
--235
--00:17:19,410 ~-~-> 00:17:22,080
--and just as well as you want to see an increase. When it
--
--236
--00:17:22,080 ~-~-> 00:17:25,260
--drops for bullishness, you want to see it rapidly do that,
--
--237
--00:17:25,560 ~-~-> 00:17:28,830
--because that's an indication that the commercials are really
--
--238
--00:17:28,830 ~-~-> 00:17:33,540
--really adjusting positions and allocating funds to offset
--
--239
--00:17:33,870 ~-~-> 00:17:37,290
--the initial risk or risk on scenario that may impact the
--
--240
--00:17:37,290 ~-~-> 00:17:40,290
--market to actually working with him. So if you see an
--
--241
--00:17:40,290 ~-~-> 00:17:43,200
--increase in open interest at a resistance level that's
--
--242
--00:17:43,200 ~-~-> 00:17:48,750
--bearish. market sentiment, obviously we would be expecting
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--243
--00:17:48,750 ~-~-> 00:17:52,260
--sell signals when we are at key resistance levels and
--
--244
--00:17:52,260 ~-~-> 00:17:55,560
--overbought based on the daily chart. And we would be looking
--
--245
--00:17:55,560 ~-~-> 00:17:58,590
--for buy signals when we're at key support and oversold on a
--
--246
--00:17:58,590 ~-~-> 00:17:59,040
--daily
--
--247
--00:18:09,480 ~-~-> 00:18:12,780
--Alright, the execution stage, obviously, again, referencing
--
--248
--00:18:12,780 ~-~-> 00:18:15,720
--the monthly, weekly and daily key support resistance levels.
--
--249
--00:18:16,560 ~-~-> 00:18:18,630
--We're gonna be determining before we do any trades at all,
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--250
--00:18:18,690 ~-~-> 00:18:21,930
--we're going to be turning that specific moment are we on
--
--251
--00:18:22,050 ~-~-> 00:18:25,830
--risk or off risk for that particular day or that session
--
--252
--00:18:25,830 ~-~-> 00:18:30,030
--that we're trading? If we are risk on obviously your buy
--
--253
--00:18:30,030 ~-~-> 00:18:34,320
--scenarios our ago, if we are risk off your sell scenarios,
--
--254
--00:18:34,350 ~-~-> 00:18:38,190
--our ago, you wouldn't be referring to the daily buy and sell
--
--255
--00:18:38,190 ~-~-> 00:18:41,340
--programs. Okay, and that means are we trading off of a key
--
--256
--00:18:41,340 ~-~-> 00:18:45,000
--support and off a swing point formation on a daily chart?
--
--257
--00:18:45,450 ~-~-> 00:18:48,630
--Because that's what you need for buys. And if we are in a
--
--258
--00:18:48,630 ~-~-> 00:18:50,910
--sell program and we see a swing high forming a key
--
--259
--00:18:50,910 ~-~-> 00:18:54,090
--resistance level, okay, that's an indication that we are in
--
--260
--00:18:54,090 ~-~-> 00:19:00,810
--fact, a go for risk off scenario and daily self harm. Okay,
--
--261
--00:19:00,810 ~-~-> 00:19:05,640
--so that that has to happen for us to be confident with our
--
--262
--00:19:05,640 ~-~-> 00:19:10,440
--trading for this style trading. When we have that scenario,
--
--263
--00:19:10,440 ~-~-> 00:19:13,770
--in effect, you're going to be transposing those key levels
--
--264
--00:19:13,770 ~-~-> 00:19:16,680
--from the higher time frame monthly, weekly and daily, down
--
--265
--00:19:16,680 ~-~-> 00:19:21,300
--to your lower timeframe, 60 minute, 15 minute and five
--
--266
--00:19:21,300 ~-~-> 00:19:25,350
--minute charts, you're going to wait for price to trade to
--
--267
--00:19:25,350 ~-~-> 00:19:29,820
--dues higher timeframe key support resistance levels, you
--
--268
--00:19:29,820 ~-~-> 00:19:31,890
--want to only be trading in the direction the market
--
--269
--00:19:31,890 ~-~-> 00:19:35,250
--structure that you find it's on the daily chart. So your
--
--270
--00:19:35,250 ~-~-> 00:19:38,160
--market structure is going to be daily basis. Okay, you're
--
--271
--00:19:38,160 ~-~-> 00:19:40,500
--not looking at market flow on one hour charts for our
--
--272
--00:19:40,500 ~-~-> 00:19:43,890
--charts, you're only trading in the direction of the market
--
--273
--00:19:43,890 ~-~-> 00:19:48,030
--structure that you find on a daily chart. You're using
--
--274
--00:19:48,090 ~-~-> 00:19:54,120
--optimal trade entry. Now, this point here, you can use any
--
--275
--00:19:54,180 ~-~-> 00:19:56,670
--trading pattern of your choice if you'd like the reflection
--
--276
--00:19:56,670 ~-~-> 00:19:59,610
--pattern, you can trade that if you'd like MACD divergence,
--
--277
--00:19:59,790 ~-~-> 00:20:02,730
--this is what you would use here. If you are type one bearish
--
--278
--00:20:02,730 ~-~-> 00:20:05,460
--divergence for stochastics. That's, that's the pattern you
--
--279
--00:20:05,460 ~-~-> 00:20:09,450
--would use here. If you'd like turtle suit patterns, that's
--
--280
--00:20:09,450 ~-~-> 00:20:12,270
--the pattern you would use here, okay, but you have to trade
--
--281
--00:20:12,270 ~-~-> 00:20:16,320
--it at a lower timeframe at a key support resistance level in
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--282
--00:20:16,320 ~-~-> 00:20:19,080
--the direction of the market structure on a daily chart.
--
--283
--00:20:19,290 ~-~-> 00:20:22,980
--Okay, so the plug and play aspect here is you can use any
--
--284
--00:20:22,980 ~-~-> 00:20:27,060
--entry pattern that you want, but it has to be in conjunction
--
--285
--00:20:27,060 ~-~-> 00:20:30,090
--with the things that we've already discussed so far. Okay.
--
--286
--00:20:30,630 ~-~-> 00:20:34,140
--Entry ideally should be traded in a major session open.
--
--287
--00:20:34,350 ~-~-> 00:20:38,280
--Obviously I don't have it here Asia could be one. London and
--
--288
--00:20:38,280 ~-~-> 00:20:42,450
--New York open are good because they're, they're just good
--
--289
--00:20:42,450 ~-~-> 00:20:47,250
--times to be trading our timeframe setups for the fiber and
--
--290
--00:20:47,250 ~-~-> 00:20:51,900
--cable. But if you're a yen pair trader or if you're an
--
--291
--00:20:51,900 ~-~-> 00:20:55,860
--Aussie trader, or Kiwi trader or something like that, you
--
--292
--00:20:55,860 ~-~-> 00:20:59,280
--could trade your positions in the asian session opening
--
--293
--00:20:59,550 ~-~-> 00:21:03,180
--okay? Because Cuz those, those currencies have a lot of
--
--294
--00:21:03,180 ~-~-> 00:21:07,110
--activity during those times a day. So, if you are a Aussie
--
--295
--00:21:07,320 ~-~-> 00:21:11,880
--Kiwi or yen trader, obviously the asian session would be in
--
--296
--00:21:12,270 ~-~-> 00:21:14,700
--session that you could be utilizing for higher timeframe
--
--297
--00:21:15,600 ~-~-> 00:21:20,220
--intermediate term trades as well for entry. Our entry orders
--
--298
--00:21:20,280 ~-~-> 00:21:22,590
--are going to be based on limit orders and we'll be keying
--
--299
--00:21:22,590 ~-~-> 00:21:27,450
--off of the 60 to 70.5 and 79% retracement levels on the fibs
--
--300
--00:21:27,870 ~-~-> 00:21:32,370
--to arrive at our entry points. And every one of our trades
--
--301
--00:21:32,430 ~-~-> 00:21:37,500
--will always have a maximum risk of 2% never more. And
--
--302
--00:21:37,500 ~-~-> 00:21:41,040
--ideally, you know less if we take a loss we reduce the risk
--
--303
--00:21:41,040 ~-~-> 00:21:44,250
--as we go through if you don't know the return to go to our
--
--304
--00:21:44,310 ~-~-> 00:21:48,750
--video for handling losses, and it gives you a program how to
--
--305
--00:21:49,080 ~-~-> 00:21:55,200
--apply risk reduction procedures in terms of how to preserve
--
--306
--00:21:55,200 ~-~-> 00:21:58,530
--your equity and it's always good to have that not always
--
--307
--00:21:58,530 ~-~-> 00:22:02,070
--walking in the marketplace. Looking for exponential growth
--
--308
--00:22:02,100 ~-~-> 00:22:04,980
--of your equity, you always have to have a shield and you're
--
--309
--00:22:04,980 ~-~-> 00:22:07,620
--going to have losses you have string losses. So, this
--
--310
--00:22:08,519 ~-~-> 00:22:13,079
--this example is not exempt from that you will have losses if
--
--311
--00:22:13,079 ~-~-> 00:22:16,709
--you use this, okay? And again, I'm stressing this, use this
--
--312
--00:22:16,709 ~-~-> 00:22:20,279
--in a demo account, okay? You determine if you have the
--
--313
--00:22:20,549 ~-~-> 00:22:24,689
--capabilities to be a trader using this as a model, okay? It
--
--314
--00:22:24,689 ~-~-> 00:22:29,159
--will help develop patience, it'll help develop anticipatory
--
--315
--00:22:29,159 ~-~-> 00:22:32,729
--skills as a trader, but you won't have a whole lot of trait,
--
--316
--00:22:32,789 ~-~-> 00:22:37,319
--okay, but it teaches you the concept and in processes that's
--
--317
--00:22:37,319 ~-~-> 00:22:41,549
--needed, because if you can understand how to do this, all of
--
--318
--00:22:41,669 ~-~-> 00:22:44,159
--the aspects of trading on a short term basis short term
--
--319
--00:22:44,159 ~-~-> 00:22:46,499
--trading, day trading, scalping, if that's what you want to
--
--320
--00:22:46,499 ~-~-> 00:22:51,749
--do. those facets of trading will be far easier if you
--
--321
--00:22:51,749 ~-~-> 00:22:54,569
--understand this higher timeframe premise where you have that
--
--322
--00:22:54,599 ~-~-> 00:22:59,039
--major tide in your favor, okay? It's kinda like a fish.
--
--323
--00:22:59,699 ~-~-> 00:23:03,029
--Okay. If you're efficient in the stream, okay, what's easier
--
--324
--00:23:03,029 ~-~-> 00:23:05,579
--if you stream if you swim downstream with the current or if
--
--325
--00:23:05,579 ~-~-> 00:23:08,579
--you swim upstream? Okay, obviously goes without saying it's
--
--326
--00:23:08,579 ~-~-> 00:23:12,509
--easy to swim downstream. There's a fish. That's a salmon,
--
--327
--00:23:12,569 ~-~-> 00:23:16,169
--very small, the strongest fish in nature, it actually swims
--
--328
--00:23:16,229 ~-~-> 00:23:19,829
--up current, okay, and leaps up out of the water, in scales
--
--329
--00:23:19,829 ~-~-> 00:23:23,399
--over rocks and everything. And a lot of folks that know that
--
--330
--00:23:23,399 ~-~-> 00:23:25,949
--will say, you know, I can be like that salmon, okay, I'm
--
--331
--00:23:25,949 ~-~-> 00:23:28,589
--going to swim against the current. And, you know, I could
--
--332
--00:23:28,589 ~-~-> 00:23:30,899
--prove how strong I am. And I'll be a contrarian trader every
--
--333
--00:23:30,899 ~-~-> 00:23:33,959
--single time and never try to worry about getting in sync
--
--334
--00:23:33,959 ~-~-> 00:23:38,009
--with the overall tide. And that's fine. Okay, granted you
--
--335
--00:23:38,009 ~-~-> 00:23:40,079
--you'll probably get to where you're going. But if you're
--
--336
--00:23:40,079 ~-~-> 00:23:42,929
--using the salmon as an example, you might want to recall
--
--337
--00:23:42,929 ~-~-> 00:23:45,479
--also when the salmon gets to where it's got to go to
--
--338
--00:23:45,479 ~-~-> 00:23:49,829
--fertilize those eggs, it dies. So, I mean, it's good that
--
--339
--00:23:49,829 ~-~-> 00:23:52,649
--you get there, but you know, if you're exhausted you croak.
--
--340
--00:23:52,889 ~-~-> 00:23:55,379
--You were good as that. So you want to be having things
--
--341
--00:23:55,409 ~-~-> 00:23:59,099
--majority in your favor and trading with the tide. Okay,
--
--342
--00:23:59,099 ~-~-> 00:24:01,799
--that's a joint that's What your focus should be okay and
--
--343
--00:24:01,799 ~-~-> 00:24:05,279
--trading on the higher time frame premise, intermediate term
--
--344
--00:24:06,089 ~-~-> 00:24:10,019
--timeframe, your short term day trades and your scalps in
--
--345
--00:24:10,019 ~-~-> 00:24:14,189
--that direction also will have very, very immediate feedback
--
--346
--00:24:14,189 ~-~-> 00:24:15,989
--you'll know right away if you're you're going to be
--
--347
--00:24:15,989 ~-~-> 00:24:18,899
--profitable in the trades. You don't get that lackadaisical
--
--348
--00:24:18,899 ~-~-> 00:24:20,729
--price action you usually get when you're trading counter
--
--349
--00:24:20,729 ~-~-> 00:24:24,269
--trend. Stop Loss orders obviously always are going to
--
--350
--00:24:24,299 ~-~-> 00:24:28,769
--originate at a 30 PIP stop from our entry point. And
--
--351
--00:24:28,769 ~-~-> 00:24:31,409
--obviously whatever your entry price is take 30 pips from
--
--352
--00:24:31,409 ~-~-> 00:24:36,869
--that above for short and below for Long's first profit is
--
--353
--00:24:36,869 ~-~-> 00:24:41,219
--always going to be taken at 50% of our position at 30 pips
--
--354
--00:24:41,219 ~-~-> 00:24:43,709
--profits and almost once a position goes to 30 pips profit,
--
--355
--00:24:43,739 ~-~-> 00:24:47,429
--we take 50% of position off, and once we get that our stop
--
--356
--00:24:47,429 ~-~-> 00:24:50,009
--loss moves to a break even status, okay, so now we're in a
--
--357
--00:24:50,009 ~-~-> 00:24:53,819
--risk free scenario. Okay, we've already profited. We got
--
--358
--00:24:53,819 ~-~-> 00:24:57,659
--half the position off. So basically making 1% on the trade.
--
--359
--00:24:57,689 ~-~-> 00:25:00,569
--We're locked at breakeven. We cannot lose anything. We've
--
--360
--00:25:00,569 ~-~-> 00:25:05,129
--already made and booked 1% profit. The remaining balance of
--
--361
--00:25:05,129 ~-~-> 00:25:08,279
--the trade, you would look for targets based on Fibonacci
--
--362
--00:25:08,279 ~-~-> 00:25:12,149
--extensions 127 extension and 162 extension, or I don't have
--
--363
--00:25:12,149 ~-~-> 00:25:14,549
--it listed here, but you could have the two on an extension
--
--364
--00:25:14,549 ~-~-> 00:25:17,939
--as well. Now you have 50% of your remaining position,
--
--365
--00:25:18,209 ~-~-> 00:25:21,569
--there's a couple ways you can handle that. If you are
--
--366
--00:25:21,899 ~-~-> 00:25:24,659
--uncomfortable and you're still learning, my advice would be
--
--367
--00:25:24,659 ~-~-> 00:25:29,009
--to take 30% off when it gets to 127 extension and then take
--
--368
--00:25:29,009 ~-~-> 00:25:33,449
--10 more off at 162 and maybe even another final 10% off at
--
--369
--00:25:33,449 ~-~-> 00:25:39,209
--the 200 extension or take 30 off at 127 take 20 off at 162
--
--370
--00:25:39,209 ~-~-> 00:25:41,789
--and just paper trade the remaining portion you don't have
--
--371
--00:25:41,789 ~-~-> 00:25:45,059
--any open position, but then see if it goes to 200 extension,
--
--372
--00:25:45,119 ~-~-> 00:25:48,779
--okay. But really the 127 wants you to you want to have at
--
--373
--00:25:48,779 ~-~-> 00:25:52,619
--least 70 to 80% of your trade already in profit and then if
--
--374
--00:25:52,619 ~-~-> 00:25:55,019
--you have a small portion obviously, you can leave that to
--
--375
--00:25:55,019 ~-~-> 00:25:59,039
--ride to 200% or even greater. Okay, but you want to be
--
--376
--00:25:59,039 ~-~-> 00:26:02,279
--taking profits employees Then at 127 and wants you to have
--
--377
--00:26:02,279 ~-~-> 00:26:03,389
--the swing that you're trading.
--
--378
--00:26:16,139 ~-~-> 00:26:19,469
--Okay, let's look at the 10 year t notes and how we can use
--
--379
--00:26:19,469 ~-~-> 00:26:24,239
--these in conjunction with yield analysis. And what we're
--
--380
--00:26:24,239 ~-~-> 00:26:28,559
--looking at here, so this is March, April of this year, in
--
--381
--00:26:28,559 ~-~-> 00:26:33,239
--2012 going into spring, and we have a weekly swing low
--
--382
--00:26:33,239 ~-~-> 00:26:38,969
--formed at the 128. Big figure for the 10 year Tinos, the US
--
--383
--00:26:38,999 ~-~-> 00:26:46,469
--10 year t note. Note also that we have a old low here just
--
--384
--00:26:46,469 ~-~-> 00:26:51,629
--above the 127 figure, and we have a rally up to the 132
--
--385
--00:26:52,289 ~-~-> 00:26:56,579
--figure. And then we saw a decline down into March where we
--
--386
--00:26:56,579 ~-~-> 00:26:59,999
--had support found that 128 big figure now that's an optimal
--
--387
--00:26:59,999 ~-~-> 00:27:03,959
--Trade entry, okay. So if we see a swing low on a weekly
--
--388
--00:27:03,959 ~-~-> 00:27:10,289
--chart on a 10 year and we see a pivot or swing low form at a
--
--389
--00:27:11,189 ~-~-> 00:27:16,079
--big figure like this 128 we also see open interest
--
--390
--00:27:16,109 ~-~-> 00:27:18,989
--declining. Okay. You can see at the bottom here, the purple
--
--391
--00:27:18,989 ~-~-> 00:27:24,269
--level here, how open interest was declining? We would expect
--
--392
--00:27:24,269 ~-~-> 00:27:28,469
--prices to rally up. Now, the tea notes rallying up that
--
--393
--00:27:28,469 ~-~-> 00:27:33,659
--means that the yield is going to be dropping. If deal if,
--
--394
--00:27:34,439 ~-~-> 00:27:38,519
--again, this is what happened later on going into the year,
--
--395
--00:27:38,909 ~-~-> 00:27:45,419
--we saw that spring rally up seasonally speaking, that is an
--
--396
--00:27:45,419 ~-~-> 00:27:48,899
--inverse relationship between the bonds. Okay, bond yields.
--
--397
--00:27:49,409 ~-~-> 00:27:54,749
--So as the march low was formed, and we rallied up into May,
--
--398
--00:27:54,989 ~-~-> 00:28:01,199
--June time period that was going to be mirrored In the yield,
--
--399
--00:28:01,559 ~-~-> 00:28:06,269
--okay, dropping, so if the tea notes rally up, the yield
--
--400
--00:28:06,269 ~-~-> 00:28:09,689
--itself is going to be declining, okay? So that's going to be
--
--401
--00:28:09,689 ~-~-> 00:28:16,559
--bearish, that's going to drag risk out of the market, okay.
--
--402
--00:28:16,589 ~-~-> 00:28:22,049
--In other words, the risk off scenario will unfold. Okay,
--
--403
--00:28:22,049 ~-~-> 00:28:25,079
--there'll be a flight to quality and during this timeframe,
--
--404
--00:28:25,289 ~-~-> 00:28:31,199
--we would see the dollar index rally and obviously, risky
--
--405
--00:28:31,199 ~-~-> 00:28:34,649
--assets in foreign currencies and such, they would be
--
--406
--00:28:34,649 ~-~-> 00:28:39,059
--declining. Okay, so we have seasonal tendency, we see the
--
--407
--00:28:39,059 ~-~-> 00:28:42,809
--support and concepts that we utilize in all of our trading,
--
--408
--00:28:43,109 ~-~-> 00:28:45,749
--optimal trade entry trading at a key support level, we would
--
--409
--00:28:45,749 ~-~-> 00:28:49,799
--expect a rally up in this timeframe. Okay, April May time
--
--410
--00:28:49,799 ~-~-> 00:28:52,979
--period going into the June months. Okay, let's see what
--
--411
--00:28:52,979 ~-~-> 00:28:59,939
--happens in the five year t note. same scenario, we see a
--
--412
--00:28:59,999 ~-~-> 00:29:03,329
--weakly optimal trade entry trading down into 122. Big
--
--413
--00:29:03,329 ~-~-> 00:29:07,829
--figure, we see a swing point low. Okay, going into April.
--
--414
--00:29:09,509 ~-~-> 00:29:13,109
--What unfolds obviously much in the same capacity we saw in
--
--415
--00:29:13,109 ~-~-> 00:29:18,059
--the 10 year, the five year rallies up into the end of May,
--
--416
--00:29:18,089 ~-~-> 00:29:22,619
--early June, okay, and even higher in the case of September
--
--417
--00:29:22,619 ~-~-> 00:29:26,909
--this year, but we saw the shift that takes place with a
--
--418
--00:29:26,909 ~-~-> 00:29:30,629
--bullish move going higher in the treasuries and T notes.
--
--419
--00:29:31,529 ~-~-> 00:29:34,139
--Now, if the futures contracts going higher, again, remember
--
--420
--00:29:34,139 ~-~-> 00:29:36,629
--their inverse relationship, that means it's going to see a
--
--421
--00:29:36,629 ~-~-> 00:29:41,219
--decline in the yield so we see dollar up because dollar is
--
--422
--00:29:41,219 ~-~-> 00:29:44,219
--gonna be trading in pretty much the same direction that the
--
--423
--00:29:44,219 ~-~-> 00:29:47,909
--treasuries are going to lead it. Many times the dollar will
--
--424
--00:29:47,909 ~-~-> 00:29:52,799
--lead treasuries, okay. It's vice versa. It's kind of like it
--
--425
--00:29:52,799 ~-~-> 00:29:55,919
--one follows the other. Okay, but do you want to add the
--
--426
--00:29:55,919 ~-~-> 00:30:00,689
--seasonal influences in a time of year like We only trade
--
--427
--00:30:00,689 ~-~-> 00:30:03,719
--intraday we have time of day theory, we have time of year
--
--428
--00:30:03,719 ~-~-> 00:30:08,429
--theory, where we see a spring decline or risk off scenario.
--
--429
--00:30:09,149 ~-~-> 00:30:16,679
--Okay, and you'll see the dollar increase in bonds rally. So
--
--430
--00:30:16,679 ~-~-> 00:30:19,229
--what does that look like in the yield? Okay, well, what
--
--431
--00:30:19,229 ~-~-> 00:30:21,269
--we're looking at is a bond yield triad.
--
--432
--00:30:22,829 ~-~-> 00:30:27,059
--And we're looking at specifically is the five year us,
--
--433
--00:30:27,149 ~-~-> 00:30:33,629
--Treasury, Tino? The UK five year bond yield and the German
--
--434
--00:30:33,629 ~-~-> 00:30:36,809
--five year bond yield. And how I got this chart, I went to
--
--435
--00:30:36,809 ~-~-> 00:30:41,699
--bloomberg.com. And if you go actually and do Google, do
--
--436
--00:30:41,699 ~-~-> 00:30:47,009
--Google on five year US Treasury, government bond yield,
--
--437
--00:30:47,279 ~-~-> 00:30:50,609
--okay, and click on that and you'll see that the Bloomberg
--
--438
--00:30:50,849 ~-~-> 00:30:55,349
--link, do the same thing with a UK five year bond yield.
--
--439
--00:30:55,829 ~-~-> 00:30:58,499
--Bloomberg, put that in your Google search and obviously do
--
--440
--00:30:58,499 ~-~-> 00:31:02,609
--the same thing with a German five year bond yield Bloomberg.
--
--441
--00:31:02,819 ~-~-> 00:31:05,969
--And when you Google that, you'll get the link for a click on
--
--442
--00:31:05,969 ~-~-> 00:31:09,419
--it. And when you get the chart that opens up similar to
--
--443
--00:31:09,419 ~-~-> 00:31:15,359
--this, you'll just simply add the symbols you see here for a
--
--444
--00:31:15,359 ~-~-> 00:31:22,529
--five year US Treasury or T note, yield. It's us GG. Number
--
--445
--00:31:22,529 ~-~-> 00:31:31,559
--five, why are calling ind for a UK five year bond yield,
--
--446
--00:31:31,559 ~-~-> 00:31:39,539
--it's g UK, g five colon ind. And for a German five year bond
--
--447
--00:31:39,539 ~-~-> 00:31:46,709
--yield, it's G, D, br five, colon ind. Now what I want to
--
--448
--00:31:46,709 ~-~-> 00:31:50,279
--draw your attention to real quick is if you look at the the
--
--449
--00:31:50,279 ~-~-> 00:31:53,069
--darker orange color, and I don't, I can't pick the colors.
--
--450
--00:31:53,069 ~-~-> 00:31:56,099
--It just does it by default. But if you look at how, in
--
--451
--00:31:56,099 ~-~-> 00:32:00,239
--March, April, okay, the US Treasury was able to Make a
--
--452
--00:32:00,239 ~-~-> 00:32:06,119
--higher high and yield. Okay? No, it would have went lower on
--
--453
--00:32:06,149 ~-~-> 00:32:07,139
--the Tina.
--
--454
--00:32:08,429 ~-~-> 00:32:09,059
--The
--
--455
--00:32:10,440 ~-~-> 00:32:16,530
--green level law yield, that's the UK, it was able to make a
--
--456
--00:32:16,560 ~-~-> 00:32:22,860
--modestly lower in comparison in terms of highs made in the
--
--457
--00:32:22,920 ~-~-> 00:32:30,570
--US. Then we see the German was also weaker as well. Okay, so
--
--458
--00:32:30,990 ~-~-> 00:32:36,840
--it wasn't able to go lower in its futures contract. But the
--
--459
--00:32:36,840 ~-~-> 00:32:40,380
--yields you can see the disparity that's shifting in place
--
--460
--00:32:40,620 ~-~-> 00:32:45,600
--that takes place where the US Treasury five year went
--
--461
--00:32:45,600 ~-~-> 00:32:50,010
--higher. So we have SMT divergence, okay. There is a
--
--462
--00:32:50,130 ~-~-> 00:32:54,750
--confirmation to there is a weakness underway going into
--
--463
--00:32:54,810 ~-~-> 00:32:58,950
--April. So we see that weakness translated in the form of
--
--464
--00:32:58,950 ~-~-> 00:32:59,970
--these overlays.
--
--465
--00:33:02,820 ~-~-> 00:33:07,500
--If you take the
--
--466
--00:33:08,849 ~-~-> 00:33:12,509
--UK off, okay, so now we're just looking at the German five
--
--467
--00:33:12,509 ~-~-> 00:33:16,049
--year in the US five here, you can see a little bit clear now
--
--468
--00:33:16,049 ~-~-> 00:33:21,119
--that the green level green is the German and the orange
--
--469
--00:33:21,119 ~-~-> 00:33:27,059
--color is the US, US was able to make a higher high in yield,
--
--470
--00:33:27,539 ~-~-> 00:33:32,099
--while the German was unable to make that higher high in
--
--471
--00:33:32,099 ~-~-> 00:33:36,809
--going into March going into April. So we see a slide, lower
--
--472
--00:33:36,809 ~-~-> 00:33:39,989
--in yield and that was translated in the rally up in the tea
--
--473
--00:33:39,989 ~-~-> 00:33:42,809
--note that we saw in the US Treasury. So there's this
--
--474
--00:33:43,289 ~-~-> 00:33:46,049
--symmetry between the two you want to be watching the yield
--
--475
--00:33:46,049 ~-~-> 00:33:47,789
--you want to be watching the teenage you want to be watching
--
--476
--00:33:47,789 ~-~-> 00:33:53,159
--the German yield. With the German futures contract, you can
--
--477
--00:33:53,159 ~-~-> 00:33:57,089
--you can trade the trade but you can track it with its
--
--478
--00:33:58,499 ~-~-> 00:34:04,499
--futures contract. In the UK as well. Seeing these big
--
--479
--00:34:04,529 ~-~-> 00:34:09,689
--divergence, okay, adds confidence to your expectation
--
--480
--00:34:09,779 ~-~-> 00:34:13,709
--expectancy, that we should be seeing weaker British pound
--
--481
--00:34:13,739 ~-~-> 00:34:18,689
--and fiber prices and a rally in the dollar, April May
--
--482
--00:34:18,689 ~-~-> 00:34:23,159
--timeframe when the spring seasonal influence should be
--
--483
--00:34:23,159 ~-~-> 00:34:32,039
--coming underway. Now looking at the US and the UK, you can
--
--484
--00:34:32,039 ~-~-> 00:34:37,649
--see that same thing happening. The orange level, it's the US
--
--485
--00:34:38,069 ~-~-> 00:34:44,039
--and the green is the UK five year yield. We were unable to
--
--486
--00:34:44,039 ~-~-> 00:34:48,359
--make that comparable higher high in the yield in the UK. So
--
--487
--00:34:48,359 ~-~-> 00:34:53,069
--we see the SMT divergence that we would expect to see going
--
--488
--00:34:53,069 ~-~-> 00:34:57,719
--into April so we saw further evidence by removing one you
--
--489
--00:34:57,719 ~-~-> 00:35:00,449
--can slip a little clear you can see it dive divergence
--
--490
--00:35:00,449 ~-~-> 00:35:07,619
--between the two yields. And by looking at just simply the UK
--
--491
--00:35:07,619 ~-~-> 00:35:14,429
--and German yields, you can see that the German and UK yields
--
--492
--00:35:14,609 ~-~-> 00:35:19,679
--were not able to make comparable highs between December and
--
--493
--00:35:19,679 ~-~-> 00:35:25,889
--the middle of March. The UK was able to trade higher at the
--
--494
--00:35:25,889 ~-~-> 00:35:31,289
--same time, the German was weaker, okay and was unable to
--
--495
--00:35:31,289 ~-~-> 00:35:35,249
--make a higher high and yield. And you seen that also going
--
--496
--00:35:35,279 ~-~-> 00:35:40,319
--into the actual price levels, that the fiber itself was
--
--497
--00:35:40,319 ~-~-> 00:35:41,729
--trading because that's what the Germans going to be
--
--498
--00:35:41,729 ~-~-> 00:35:46,469
--measuring the yield for that specific country. The UK is for
--
--499
--00:35:46,469 ~-~-> 00:35:50,909
--the cable. Well, if you look at the the underlying weakness
--
--500
--00:35:51,389 ~-~-> 00:35:54,749
--that was in the yield for the German you can see how we were
--
--501
--00:35:54,749 ~-~-> 00:35:58,589
--really really weak really soft in the march april time
--
--502
--00:35:58,589 ~-~-> 00:36:02,369
--period. For for For the five or so, there was really no
--
--503
--00:36:02,369 ~-~-> 00:36:06,149
--participation whatsoever or interest in chasing any higher
--
--504
--00:36:06,149 ~-~-> 00:36:08,939
--yield there. They were actually selling into that and you
--
--505
--00:36:08,939 ~-~-> 00:36:14,219
--could see the the weakness really accelerate going into June
--
--506
--00:36:14,219 ~-~-> 00:36:23,489
--and the middle of July Okay folks, we're looking at bar
--
--507
--00:36:23,489 ~-~-> 00:36:28,949
--chart.com Okay, this is a free website absolutely zero fees
--
--508
--00:36:28,949 ~-~-> 00:36:34,139
--whatsoever. So give you access to commodities and commodity
--
--509
--00:36:34,139 ~-~-> 00:36:37,739
--traders reports and open interest. When you go to the
--
--510
--00:36:37,739 ~-~-> 00:36:41,039
--homepage is what pops up you go over here to this little tab
--
--511
--00:36:41,039 ~-~-> 00:36:45,629
--here says select the commodity. Tap that and we'll start
--
--512
--00:36:45,629 ~-~-> 00:36:49,799
--with the US Dollar Index. Okay, when when opens up you'll
--
--513
--00:36:49,799 ~-~-> 00:36:53,429
--get onto top a list to please the cash you don't want that
--
--514
--00:36:54,359 ~-~-> 00:36:58,559
--year is the nearby contract December next month house March
--
--515
--00:36:58,559 ~-~-> 00:37:04,259
--following by June and September, just click the top contract
--
--516
--00:37:04,259 ~-~-> 00:37:08,669
--here to one that has a month again using cash. Click on
--
--517
--00:37:08,669 ~-~-> 00:37:12,569
--December, it'll obviously depend upon what time of the year
--
--518
--00:37:12,569 ~-~-> 00:37:16,769
--you're trading. And looking at the resource. It'll be a
--
--519
--00:37:16,769 ~-~-> 00:37:19,199
--different month obviously, but you just want to the top one
--
--520
--00:37:19,229 ~-~-> 00:37:21,599
--is going to be the nearby contract. Then go to this area
--
--521
--00:37:21,599 ~-~-> 00:37:26,789
--here where it says customized chart, click that tab. And
--
--522
--00:37:26,789 ~-~-> 00:37:31,589
--that'll open up a window to get you a chart like this. Okay,
--
--523
--00:37:31,589 ~-~-> 00:37:33,359
--and what you're going to do is you're going to scroll down
--
--524
--00:37:33,389 ~-~-> 00:37:35,999
--to this little area down here, we can set the parameters.
--
--525
--00:37:36,659 ~-~-> 00:37:39,929
--You want to set the frequency to weekly nearest, what that's
--
--526
--00:37:39,929 ~-~-> 00:37:43,139
--going to do is going to give you a chart based on weekly
--
--527
--00:37:43,139 ~-~-> 00:37:48,389
--ranges using the nearby contract always. Okay, I'm gonna
--
--528
--00:37:48,389 ~-~-> 00:37:52,799
--change it to candlesticks. I'm gonna change it to one year.
--
--529
--00:37:54,239 ~-~-> 00:37:58,019
--And make sure this is saying total volume. Okay, total
--
--530
--00:37:58,019 ~-~-> 00:38:00,809
--volume and the reason why you won't get The open interest
--
--531
--00:38:00,809 ~-~-> 00:38:05,039
--and volume as you see down here, otherwise, click draw.
--
--532
--00:38:10,950 ~-~-> 00:38:13,590
--Okay, and you'll get a window pops up with a new chart here.
--
--533
--00:38:14,040 ~-~-> 00:38:17,850
--And what this is, this is a weekly chart using weekly range
--
--534
--00:38:17,850 ~-~-> 00:38:23,370
--highs and lows derived from the nearest contract month of
--
--535
--00:38:23,370 ~-~-> 00:38:26,820
--the US Dollar Index. Okay. And if you look at the bottom
--
--536
--00:38:26,820 ~-~-> 00:38:31,470
--here, this purple line here, it's moving along here sneaking
--
--537
--00:38:31,470 ~-~-> 00:38:36,570
--up and down. Okay, that delineates the total open interest
--
--538
--00:38:36,570 ~-~-> 00:38:40,380
--for the dollar index. And obviously, it goes without saying
--
--539
--00:38:40,380 ~-~-> 00:38:44,850
--these vertical red and green lines are volume. Okay, we're
--
--540
--00:38:44,850 ~-~-> 00:38:47,100
--not gonna really pay attention to the volume, but there's
--
--541
--00:38:47,100 ~-~-> 00:38:50,340
--just no way for me to take the volume off and just leave the
--
--542
--00:38:50,340 ~-~-> 00:38:53,040
--open interest. So we have to kind of look past these
--
--543
--00:38:53,040 ~-~-> 00:38:55,800
--vertical lines and pay attention to the purple line in here.
--
--544
--00:38:55,860 ~-~-> 00:39:03,750
--Okay. So let's go and scroll down. Little bit notice how we
--
--545
--00:39:03,990 ~-~-> 00:39:07,230
--rode up in price here on the dollar and then we went into a
--
--546
--00:39:07,230 ~-~-> 00:39:09,780
--consolidation after small retracement, okay? See this
--
--547
--00:39:09,780 ~-~-> 00:39:14,220
--consolidation here, we have a range high here. And we have a
--
--548
--00:39:14,220 ~-~-> 00:39:18,750
--range low in here. Note the time of the year, okay? March,
--
--549
--00:39:18,780 ~-~-> 00:39:22,680
--April, May, March, April May, because that's springtime of
--
--550
--00:39:22,680 ~-~-> 00:39:27,330
--this year. Note the low here and the high here in this low.
--
--551
--00:39:27,570 ~-~-> 00:39:30,810
--This is optimal trade entry. pull that up on your platform
--
--552
--00:39:30,840 ~-~-> 00:39:32,850
--both of across that and you'll see that we did trade right
--
--553
--00:39:32,850 ~-~-> 00:39:37,680
--back down to this level here. Now utilizing this this
--
--554
--00:39:37,680 ~-~-> 00:39:43,770
--concept of weekly ranges and seasonal tendencies, okay.
--
--555
--00:39:45,120 ~-~-> 00:39:48,870
--Typically in the springtime, we see a weakness come into the
--
--556
--00:39:48,870 ~-~-> 00:39:52,380
--marketplace in the form of British Pound usually making a
--
--557
--00:39:52,380 ~-~-> 00:39:55,590
--seasonal high April May and trading down into the summer
--
--558
--00:39:55,590 ~-~-> 00:39:59,220
--months. Well, that's going to be a mirror image or reverse.
--
--559
--00:39:59,550 ~-~-> 00:40:03,060
--Okay? In the dollar, the dollar should rally up at that same
--
--560
--00:40:03,060 ~-~-> 00:40:06,570
--timeframe and you see that unfolding here. Okay, now we're
--
--561
--00:40:06,570 ~-~-> 00:40:12,090
--going to introduce the concept of open interest. Okay? And I
--
--562
--00:40:12,090 ~-~-> 00:40:16,260
--want you to take a look at this drop, okay rather sharp drop
--
--563
--00:40:16,290 ~-~-> 00:40:19,920
--in open interest right here during a timeframe when we're in
--
--564
--00:40:19,920 ~-~-> 00:40:23,520
--a consolidation. This is the commercials tipping their hand
--
--565
--00:40:23,520 ~-~-> 00:40:28,710
--that this is now no longer going to be staying within this
--
--566
--00:40:28,710 ~-~-> 00:40:32,490
--small little timeframe of trading range, okay? They expect
--
--567
--00:40:33,030 ~-~-> 00:40:35,640
--higher prices Why? Because open interest is declining. We've
--
--568
--00:40:35,640 ~-~-> 00:40:39,270
--learned at open interest decline in a consolidation is
--
--569
--00:40:39,270 ~-~-> 00:40:43,230
--commercials doing what lessening their shorts if they're
--
--570
--00:40:43,230 ~-~-> 00:40:46,530
--lessening their short positions. They expect what higher
--
--571
--00:40:46,530 ~-~-> 00:40:51,030
--prices and you can see that unfolding here. Okay, now, by
--
--572
--00:40:51,030 ~-~-> 00:40:54,660
--itself, that's wonderful, but how do you confirm that how do
--
--573
--00:40:54,660 ~-~-> 00:40:58,950
--you see the X ray view so to speak of this open interest
--
--574
--00:41:00,000 ~-~-> 00:41:03,030
--indicator giving you the insight that we're supposing it's
--
--575
--00:41:03,030 ~-~-> 00:41:07,740
--doing here. Well you scroll down to this little area on your
--
--576
--00:41:08,610 ~-~-> 00:41:13,020
--page and says add study, click on this tab here. And you
--
--577
--00:41:13,020 ~-~-> 00:41:16,260
--want to go to Commitment of Traders line chart, tap that,
--
--578
--00:41:16,860 ~-~-> 00:41:25,140
--then draw a chart. Okay, now watch. See the open interest
--
--579
--00:41:25,140 ~-~-> 00:41:29,670
--declining here. That's lessening of shorts. The red line
--
--580
--00:41:29,670 ~-~-> 00:41:33,720
--down here is the commercials. Okay, they are below the zero
--
--581
--00:41:33,720 ~-~-> 00:41:36,570
--line here. So because they are net short, but look what
--
--582
--00:41:36,570 ~-~-> 00:41:39,600
--you're doing the same time here, middle of March going into
--
--583
--00:41:39,600 ~-~-> 00:41:43,980
--April, they're really reducing their shorts, see how they're
--
--584
--00:41:43,980 ~-~-> 00:41:46,620
--covering their shorts at the same timeframe. open interest
--
--585
--00:41:47,010 ~-~-> 00:41:50,850
--is declining while prices in a consolidation while price is
--
--586
--00:41:50,850 ~-~-> 00:41:54,780
--trading at a key support level 79 see that level over here
--
--587
--00:41:54,810 ~-~-> 00:41:59,310
--79. So we can expect reasonably seasonally we're looking for
--
--588
--00:41:59,310 ~-~-> 00:42:03,360
--higher prices and Dollar weaker into fiber and cable. Okay,
--
--589
--00:42:03,450 ~-~-> 00:42:07,710
--so there should be a risk off scenario, risk off is going to
--
--590
--00:42:08,280 ~-~-> 00:42:12,960
--draw participants into buying safe haven assets. Now one can
--
--591
--00:42:12,960 ~-~-> 00:42:17,070
--argue that the dollar may or may not be a safe asset to most
--
--592
--00:42:17,130 ~-~-> 00:42:20,640
--but for instance, you can see that still unfolding here with
--
--593
--00:42:20,640 ~-~-> 00:42:25,740
--a higher dollar rally up from the April May timeframe into
--
--594
--00:42:26,280 ~-~-> 00:42:31,170
--the summer months. So that we have this mindset that we're
--
--595
--00:42:31,170 ~-~-> 00:42:34,200
--looking for bullish prices in here. Okay, we would be in a
--
--596
--00:42:34,200 ~-~-> 00:42:38,400
--buy program all through here. Okay. So now, let's look and
--
--597
--00:42:38,400 ~-~-> 00:42:41,850
--see if we have that same thing occurring in the British
--
--598
--00:42:41,850 ~-~-> 00:42:45,360
--Pound at the same timeframe in this year in the spring. So
--
--599
--00:42:45,360 ~-~-> 00:42:46,440
--let's go back over
--
--600
--00:42:48,810 ~-~-> 00:42:49,980
--to the commodity tab.
--
--601
--00:42:51,300 ~-~-> 00:42:52,800
--And we're going to the British pound
--
--602
--00:42:55,770 ~-~-> 00:42:57,240
--and you use the nearby contract.
--
--603
--00:43:00,389 ~-~-> 00:43:04,349
--to click on your customized chart tab, and we're going to do
--
--604
--00:43:04,349 ~-~-> 00:43:06,929
--the same thing we did with the dollar, we're going to make
--
--605
--00:43:06,929 ~-~-> 00:43:12,059
--sure we are on candlesticks. We're going to look at weekly
--
--606
--00:43:12,119 ~-~-> 00:43:17,759
--nearest, we're going to scroll to a one year chart, making
--
--607
--00:43:17,759 ~-~-> 00:43:21,329
--sure total volume is clicked. And we're going to draw the
--
--608
--00:43:21,329 ~-~-> 00:43:28,109
--chart. Okay, now we have a weekly chart on the British
--
--609
--00:43:28,109 ~-~-> 00:43:34,409
--pound, okay? And you can see that April May high, unfold
--
--610
--00:43:34,409 ~-~-> 00:43:39,899
--here. So we saw price drop down. Okay, so let's add a little
--
--611
--00:43:39,899 ~-~-> 00:43:46,769
--bit of time to this because it is a little. This is that
--
--612
--00:43:46,859 ~-~-> 00:43:51,239
--area right here. Okay. Now, if one takes this high here,
--
--613
--00:43:51,719 ~-~-> 00:43:55,259
--down to this low, you can see that this is an optimal trade
--
--614
--00:43:55,259 ~-~-> 00:43:58,919
--entry. Okay, this is an area where we would expect implied
--
--615
--00:43:58,919 ~-~-> 00:44:02,399
--resistance Also noting that we did take out this old high as
--
--616
--00:44:02,399 ~-~-> 00:44:07,829
--well. So price was really in it, it was free to find lower
--
--617
--00:44:07,829 ~-~-> 00:44:11,249
--prices because we were seeing higher prices poised in the
--
--618
--00:44:11,249 ~-~-> 00:44:16,289
--dollar at the same timeframe. April May. Now also note that
--
--619
--00:44:16,289 ~-~-> 00:44:23,549
--we were in a range between this, this low, okay, and this
--
--620
--00:44:23,549 ~-~-> 00:44:26,669
--old high in here. Okay, now we did break out. Okay, we did
--
--621
--00:44:26,669 ~-~-> 00:44:30,269
--break out there, but we saw a rapid increase in open
--
--622
--00:44:30,269 ~-~-> 00:44:34,229
--interest. Okay, so what does that mean? That the open
--
--623
--00:44:34,229 ~-~-> 00:44:37,199
--interest is increasing while within a larger trading range.
--
--624
--00:44:37,319 ~-~-> 00:44:39,749
--Okay. And one could argue really, this is a large trading
--
--625
--00:44:39,749 ~-~-> 00:44:42,959
--range here. We had a rapid increase of the open interest
--
--626
--00:44:42,959 ~-~-> 00:44:47,129
--here, gave up just a little bit before this run off, but
--
--627
--00:44:47,129 ~-~-> 00:44:50,489
--ultimately, we're at it right back above the previous open
--
--628
--00:44:50,489 ~-~-> 00:44:53,429
--interest here with shorts, so they quickly added all those
--
--629
--00:44:53,429 ~-~-> 00:44:56,549
--shorts back while we round rallied up until a new high
--
--630
--00:44:56,579 ~-~-> 00:44:59,279
--higher than this one. But we did not get back to this old
--
--631
--00:44:59,279 ~-~-> 00:45:02,429
--high as well. So we back into this range. Okay, so think
--
--632
--00:45:02,429 ~-~-> 00:45:05,189
--about what we've covered in the webinar inside the range.
--
--633
--00:45:05,609 ~-~-> 00:45:10,259
--And that concept is unfolding here. So now watch, we're
--
--634
--00:45:10,259 ~-~-> 00:45:12,989
--going to be looking for this open interest or increasing
--
--635
--00:45:12,989 ~-~-> 00:45:15,959
--shorts, okay to be confirmed with what in the net traders
--
--636
--00:45:15,959 ~-~-> 00:45:18,929
--position? Well, if we pull that chart up, we should be
--
--637
--00:45:18,929 ~-~-> 00:45:23,549
--seeing what we should be seeing. commodity, I'm sorry,
--
--638
--00:45:23,549 ~-~-> 00:45:30,089
--commercial traders. Going net short or adding to net short
--
--639
--00:45:30,089 ~-~-> 00:45:34,499
--positions. Okay, and we're going to do this by adding a
--
--640
--00:45:34,499 ~-~-> 00:45:35,129
--chart here.
--
--641
--00:45:42,510 ~-~-> 00:45:45,540
--Okay, so now if we see the open interest in current increase
--
--642
--00:45:45,540 ~-~-> 00:45:49,740
--like this, okay, we would expect to see what in the net
--
--643
--00:45:49,740 ~-~-> 00:45:54,630
--traders decision chart we want to see an increase of net
--
--644
--00:45:54,630 ~-~-> 00:45:58,650
--short selling or net short position or rapid reduction in
--
--645
--00:45:58,650 ~-~-> 00:46:02,760
--their net long position. That would confirm this okay as
--
--646
--00:46:02,790 ~-~-> 00:46:07,710
--commercials themselves doing what? expecting lower prices.
--
--647
--00:46:08,820 ~-~-> 00:46:13,230
--So we go down here to this add study tab, click on that go
--
--648
--00:46:13,230 ~-~-> 00:46:16,920
--to commercial commitment traders line chart, add that and
--
--649
--00:46:16,920 ~-~-> 00:46:17,340
--draw.
--
--650
--00:46:22,980 ~-~-> 00:46:30,510
--Okay, and you can see here we have the chart noted as we see
--
--651
--00:46:30,510 ~-~-> 00:46:33,960
--here and you can see the red line here. And we're going to
--
--652
--00:46:33,960 ~-~-> 00:46:36,030
--change it to one year so you can see a little bit clearer.
--
--653
--00:46:37,980 ~-~-> 00:46:42,210
--And if by clicking on the one year we'll see that this red
--
--654
--00:46:42,210 ~-~-> 00:46:44,880
--line here delineates the commercial activity, okay, you can
--
--655
--00:46:44,880 ~-~-> 00:46:48,630
--see how they rapidly drop down from net long and net short
--
--656
--00:46:48,630 ~-~-> 00:46:50,700
--while the open interest was increasing. So that was a
--
--657
--00:46:50,700 ~-~-> 00:46:54,420
--confirmation that we were seeing that short, commercial
--
--658
--00:46:54,450 ~-~-> 00:46:58,080
--short selling, okay, so if we see both open interest
--
--659
--00:46:58,080 ~-~-> 00:47:01,620
--increasing like this, and the red line here delineating
--
--660
--00:47:01,620 ~-~-> 00:47:04,830
--commercial traders. Okay, they went from net long to net
--
--661
--00:47:04,830 ~-~-> 00:47:09,030
--short going into May. Okay, so we saw this rally as a
--
--662
--00:47:09,030 ~-~-> 00:47:14,640
--suspect false fake out type of move here and we just ran out
--
--663
--00:47:14,640 ~-~-> 00:47:18,330
--this old high and then obviously rejected it very harshly.
--
--664
--00:47:18,810 ~-~-> 00:47:22,830
--Now this was the net short position, okay held by the
--
--665
--00:47:22,860 ~-~-> 00:47:25,980
--commercial traders expecting the top to form in that British
--
--666
--00:47:25,980 ~-~-> 00:47:30,030
--Pound at a seasonal time frame when the dollar was poised to
--
--667
--00:47:30,030 ~-~-> 00:47:32,850
--rally okay and seasonally when the British Pound was
--
--668
--00:47:32,850 ~-~-> 00:47:37,980
--expected to go lower. Okay, so now we've confirmed two sides
--
--669
--00:47:38,040 ~-~-> 00:47:41,850
--of the market, the dollar and the British pound. So let's
--
--670
--00:47:41,850 ~-~-> 00:47:44,820
--see if we can see some support also in the euro.
--
--671
--00:47:48,000 ~-~-> 00:47:49,410
--So I'm gonna go to this tab here.
--
--672
--00:47:50,730 ~-~-> 00:47:54,540
--We're gonna go into the Euro FX tab and we're going to use
--
--673
--00:47:54,540 ~-~-> 00:48:04,020
--the first contract month over to customize Scroll down, and
--
--674
--00:48:04,050 ~-~-> 00:48:07,860
--we're going to do is make sure we're on candlesticks, we're
--
--675
--00:48:07,860 ~-~-> 00:48:09,600
--going to use the weekly nearest
--
--676
--00:48:11,340 ~-~-> 00:48:12,090
--one year
--
--677
--00:48:14,070 ~-~-> 00:48:17,340
--making sure total volume is clicked, and we're going to draw
--
--678
--00:48:17,340 ~-~-> 00:48:26,310
--the chart and we will arrive at the euro. Okay, we have the
--
--679
--00:48:26,340 ~-~-> 00:48:31,230
--march april timeframe in here, notice that the fiber was
--
--680
--00:48:31,290 ~-~-> 00:48:34,800
--unwilling to make a higher high here. Okay, so we have that
--
--681
--00:48:34,800 ~-~-> 00:48:38,340
--divergence, okay between the pairs. So we have SMT
--
--682
--00:48:38,340 ~-~-> 00:48:42,690
--divergence during a seasonal time when we expect the fiber
--
--683
--00:48:42,690 ~-~-> 00:48:47,100
--and cable to decline. We also expect to see the dollar to
--
--684
--00:48:47,100 ~-~-> 00:48:54,360
--rally. Okay, so by seeing that we also know that we have a
--
--685
--00:48:54,360 ~-~-> 00:48:57,570
--trading range in here. Okay, the price is trading in a
--
--686
--00:48:57,570 ~-~-> 00:49:01,470
--trading range. Okay, so same thing Just inverse relationship
--
--687
--00:49:01,470 ~-~-> 00:49:04,260
--between the dollar and the euro. Remember, we had the same
--
--688
--00:49:04,290 ~-~-> 00:49:07,080
--thing happening in the dollar. During the spring of this
--
--689
--00:49:07,080 ~-~-> 00:49:10,800
--year in 2012. We saw the dollar ranging and then expected to
--
--690
--00:49:10,800 ~-~-> 00:49:13,680
--see higher prices because open interest declined. And
--
--691
--00:49:13,710 ~-~-> 00:49:18,570
--commercial short selling was rapidly reduced. Okay, in the
--
--692
--00:49:18,570 ~-~-> 00:49:21,510
--dollar, so that's bullish. So we see the same thing,
--
--693
--00:49:21,510 ~-~-> 00:49:24,690
--hopefully in a mirror image on the fiber. We're in
--
--694
--00:49:24,840 ~-~-> 00:49:28,590
--consolidation. Okay, April May time period. So between this
--
--695
--00:49:28,590 ~-~-> 00:49:31,140
--vertical line and this vertical line right in here, okay,
--
--696
--00:49:31,140 ~-~-> 00:49:35,490
--we're in a range. Notice we saw open interest increasing.
--
--697
--00:49:36,060 ~-~-> 00:49:39,660
--Okay, that's a nice increase of open interest during a
--
--698
--00:49:39,660 ~-~-> 00:49:42,420
--timeframe in the year when we would expect to see weaker
--
--699
--00:49:42,420 ~-~-> 00:49:45,810
--prices. Also, we have optimal trade entry from this high to
--
--700
--00:49:45,810 ~-~-> 00:49:48,120
--this low trade right up into that the beginning of April.
--
--701
--00:49:48,510 ~-~-> 00:49:51,720
--Okay, so we now have optimal trade entry during a time when
--
--702
--00:49:51,720 ~-~-> 00:49:55,080
--we're seasonally weak, and we're expecting firmness in the
--
--703
--00:49:55,080 ~-~-> 00:50:01,620
--dollar. Okay, and now let's go and add to commercials By co
--
--704
--00:50:01,620 ~-~-> 00:50:05,580
--T, and Commitment of Traders in line chart, add that click
--
--705
--00:50:05,580 ~-~-> 00:50:10,680
--draw. Okay, and you can see here
--
--706
--00:50:12,449 ~-~-> 00:50:17,759
--we had the reduction. Okay, in other words we had
--
--707
--00:50:19,980 ~-~-> 00:50:21,510
--open interest increasing here.
--
--708
--00:50:22,770 ~-~-> 00:50:28,830
--Wow, we also saw the commercials in this case actually
--
--709
--00:50:28,830 ~-~-> 00:50:33,060
--adding a little bit of their net longs in here. Okay. They
--
--710
--00:50:33,060 ~-~-> 00:50:36,540
--were already net long above the zero line here. So they were
--
--711
--00:50:37,290 ~-~-> 00:50:42,720
--all along here, basically trying to catch this low here. So
--
--712
--00:50:42,720 ~-~-> 00:50:45,870
--they're buying all this decline from this high down lower.
--
--713
--00:50:46,500 ~-~-> 00:50:52,620
--So when price started to whip lower below this low here at
--
--714
--00:50:52,620 ~-~-> 00:50:55,980
--that very moment between April and May, there was really no
--
--715
--00:50:56,610 ~-~-> 00:51:00,600
--increase of selling. In fact, they're actually buying more
--
--716
--00:51:00,600 ~-~-> 00:51:05,310
--of it in here. Okay, so it's in this example, it acts much
--
--717
--00:51:05,310 ~-~-> 00:51:10,410
--like the SMT, where we have the information in the cable and
--
--718
--00:51:10,410 ~-~-> 00:51:14,190
--the dollar, but don't see it. We don't really see it here.
--
--719
--00:51:14,490 ~-~-> 00:51:20,190
--Okay. We've been maintaining a very large network long
--
--720
--00:51:20,190 ~-~-> 00:51:23,730
--position on commercials. Let's go and pull up three years
--
--721
--00:51:23,730 ~-~-> 00:51:24,840
--ago, and you'll see what I mean.
--
--722
--00:51:30,389 ~-~-> 00:51:33,269
--You can see that we've had a net long position by the
--
--723
--00:51:33,269 ~-~-> 00:51:38,879
--commercials for a very long time. And while we did drop down
--
--724
--00:51:38,939 ~-~-> 00:51:42,689
--in here, there was no real indication that there was
--
--725
--00:51:42,719 ~-~-> 00:51:48,629
--additional short selling here. Okay, they were lessening
--
--726
--00:51:48,629 ~-~-> 00:51:52,379
--their Long's here going into April. So that's the insight
--
--727
--00:51:52,379 ~-~-> 00:51:55,919
--legally, not necessarily this one here. So we did lose some
--
--728
--00:51:55,919 ~-~-> 00:51:58,619
--net longs here. So we have confirmation in that regard, but
--
--729
--00:51:58,619 ~-~-> 00:52:03,749
--between April May There was nothing to indicate the movement
--
--730
--00:52:04,589 ~-~-> 00:52:07,619
--was confirmed between commercials and open interest at that
--
--731
--00:52:07,619 ~-~-> 00:52:12,329
--particular moment. But if you look at this scale that we
--
--732
--00:52:12,329 ~-~-> 00:52:18,479
--have here on the three year, you see how we had open
--
--733
--00:52:18,479 ~-~-> 00:52:21,779
--interest increasing and here we had open interest increasing
--
--734
--00:52:21,779 ~-~-> 00:52:26,549
--in here. While we saw a reduction on the long side, it's
--
--735
--00:52:26,549 ~-~-> 00:52:29,489
--more or less essentially the same thing. They're lessening
--
--736
--00:52:29,489 ~-~-> 00:52:33,389
--their Long's. Okay, which is increasing their short
--
--737
--00:52:33,389 ~-~-> 00:52:37,529
--positions, while open interest increased in here while we're
--
--738
--00:52:37,529 ~-~-> 00:52:42,359
--in this range. Okay, so that was the catalyst for
--
--739
--00:52:42,689 ~-~-> 00:52:45,269
--confirmation on the higher timeframe. So while they didn't
--
--740
--00:52:45,269 ~-~-> 00:52:49,079
--exactly line up between cable and fiber, the both of them
--
--741
--00:52:49,109 ~-~-> 00:52:53,279
--more or less had the indication going in so fiber was giving
--
--742
--00:52:53,279 ~-~-> 00:52:57,359
--it up here early. And as you can see, it's also supported
--
--743
--00:52:57,359 ~-~-> 00:52:59,279
--with the fact that they were unable to make a higher high
--
--744
--00:52:59,279 ~-~-> 00:53:05,459
--here. In April wind cable was able to do that. Alright. So
--
--745
--00:53:05,459 ~-~-> 00:53:09,689
--that's one way of applying open interest looking for the
--
--746
--00:53:09,689 ~-~-> 00:53:15,029
--reduction and increasing of open interest for measuring
--
--747
--00:53:15,269 ~-~-> 00:53:17,699
--smart money in the form of commercial traders and using the
--
--748
--00:53:17,699 ~-~-> 00:53:22,679
--co2 graph. And now we had this stage set for weaker prices
--
--749
--00:53:23,249 ~-~-> 00:53:27,899
--in the spring of 2012. So, now we have more or less the
--
--750
--00:53:27,899 ~-~-> 00:53:32,609
--large macro view Okay, couple that with the interest rate
--
--751
--00:53:32,609 ~-~-> 00:53:37,799
--market now, because now we have the CBOT open interest
--
--752
--00:53:38,099 ~-~-> 00:53:41,939
--supporting the notion that the seasonal tendency for weaker
--
--753
--00:53:41,939 ~-~-> 00:53:46,859
--Cabling and Fiber and higher dollar in the spring, we see
--
--754
--00:53:46,859 ~-~-> 00:53:54,119
--that also supporting the interest rate insights that we've
--
--755
--00:53:54,119 ~-~-> 00:53:58,709
--already looked at, and now we have a sell program. Okay in
--
--756
--00:53:58,709 ~-~-> 00:54:03,539
--place now we can look for sure We can start selling, okay,
--
--757
--00:54:04,319 ~-~-> 00:54:11,639
--for short position going into the summer months. Okay, we're
--
--758
--00:54:11,639 ~-~-> 00:54:14,789
--looking at the Dollar Index. This is a daily chart, and
--
--759
--00:54:14,789 ~-~-> 00:54:19,679
--we're zoomed in to the April month of 2012. And we're
--
--760
--00:54:19,679 ~-~-> 00:54:25,619
--looking at this, again, seasonal tendency for the market to
--
--761
--00:54:26,429 ~-~-> 00:54:29,999
--decline on the British pound and usually be a risk off
--
--762
--00:54:29,999 ~-~-> 00:54:35,069
--scenario. And obviously, we'd be looking for a reverse
--
--763
--00:54:35,069 ~-~-> 00:54:39,389
--scenario which would be bullish for the US dollar. And we
--
--764
--00:54:39,779 ~-~-> 00:54:45,179
--know that already this swing here. This is optimal trade
--
--765
--00:54:45,179 ~-~-> 00:54:48,029
--entry in here where price would have been rallying from
--
--766
--00:54:48,119 ~-~-> 00:54:50,609
--where we would expect to see it rally from and sweetspot
--
--767
--00:54:50,609 ~-~-> 00:54:57,449
--comes in at 178 85. So this would be a catalyst for upside,
--
--768
--00:54:57,929 ~-~-> 00:55:03,149
--momentum for the dollar. Looking for this old high and this
--
--769
--00:55:03,149 ~-~-> 00:55:08,369
--old high as upside objectives. At the same time that this is
--
--770
--00:55:08,729 ~-~-> 00:55:14,579
--occurring, we expect to see weakness in the stock indices to
--
--771
--00:55:14,579 ~-~-> 00:55:19,679
--end participate a risk off scenario. We saw the Dow this
--
--772
--00:55:19,679 ~-~-> 00:55:24,989
--year in April make a very modestly higher high here. And
--
--773
--00:55:24,989 ~-~-> 00:55:27,689
--this little rectangle is delineating the month of April as
--
--774
--00:55:27,689 ~-~-> 00:55:32,039
--well. So we see a modestly higher high here, but let's look
--
--775
--00:55:32,039 ~-~-> 00:55:37,019
--at the daily on the s&p the same timeframe. We have a lower
--
--776
--00:55:37,049 ~-~-> 00:55:40,259
--high okay see that now we already have SMT divergence
--
--777
--00:55:40,259 ~-~-> 00:55:44,159
--between the stock indices and obviously the NASDAQ Composite
--
--778
--00:55:44,159 ~-~-> 00:55:49,949
--Index also, that same month was a built to post a lower high
--
--779
--00:55:50,129 ~-~-> 00:55:54,179
--Okay, so we have SMT divergence indicating that we have
--
--780
--00:55:54,449 ~-~-> 00:55:58,109
--underlying weakness. Okay, in other words, is this rally up
--
--781
--00:55:58,109 ~-~-> 00:56:02,729
--into April May time period Stock averages we're not able to
--
--782
--00:56:02,729 ~-~-> 00:56:05,549
--confirm one another. So Dow theory suggests that there's
--
--783
--00:56:05,549 ~-~-> 00:56:10,649
--probably waning momentum and don't be so aggressive in terms
--
--784
--00:56:10,649 ~-~-> 00:56:12,899
--of mine because you may be seeing a withdraw or a
--
--785
--00:56:12,899 ~-~-> 00:56:19,499
--retracement lower. Let's go back to the dollar. Okay, and
--
--786
--00:56:19,799 ~-~-> 00:56:25,049
--let's look at what happened from that point. Okay, you see,
--
--787
--00:56:25,079 ~-~-> 00:56:32,669
--obviously the dollars have rallied or not from this high
--
--788
--00:56:34,620 ~-~-> 00:56:38,970
--in this low here, this range, okay, if we look at just that
--
--789
--00:56:42,240 ~-~-> 00:56:48,570
--we can get some upside objectives for the dollar. Okay, and
--
--790
--00:56:48,570 ~-~-> 00:56:51,840
--what we're doing is we're looking for obviously, objectives,
--
--791
--00:56:52,470 ~-~-> 00:56:56,430
--looking for potential areas where price may shoot to, here's
--
--792
--00:56:56,430 ~-~-> 00:57:01,680
--the 162 extension and a 200 extension here. Okay, now once
--
--793
--00:57:01,680 ~-~-> 00:57:06,870
--price broke above this high this swing okay is fine you can
--
--794
--00:57:06,870 ~-~-> 00:57:08,970
--still use those targets but we got to go to the left side of
--
--795
--00:57:08,970 ~-~-> 00:57:12,150
--the chart and look at the larger magnitude price swing that
--
--796
--00:57:12,150 ~-~-> 00:57:15,540
--we're working with instead it's this high to this low so we
--
--797
--00:57:15,540 ~-~-> 00:57:21,540
--will use our fib tool from that high and pull it down to the
--
--798
--00:57:21,540 ~-~-> 00:57:27,660
--lowest low in that fractal Okay, so we have this high down
--
--799
--00:57:27,660 ~-~-> 00:57:31,230
--to this low and we will be looking for the 127 extension for
--
--800
--00:57:31,230 ~-~-> 00:57:35,310
--upside objectives here and 162 extension which nails the
--
--801
--00:57:35,310 ~-~-> 00:57:38,790
--high here and moving forward you can see the dollar had
--
--802
--00:57:39,090 ~-~-> 00:57:42,990
--slipped off precipitously from that point. Now we can see
--
--803
--00:57:42,990 ~-~-> 00:57:46,890
--hopefully here the value of using a higher macro view
--
--804
--00:57:47,310 ~-~-> 00:57:51,720
--analysis approach to your trading. And if you see this type
--
--805
--00:57:51,720 ~-~-> 00:57:54,960
--of event unfolding in the dollar, the same thing should be
--
--806
--00:57:54,960 ~-~-> 00:57:59,040
--happening in the reverse okay on the downside on your other
--
--807
--00:57:59,040 ~-~-> 00:58:03,360
--asset classes and Let's look at the daily on the Dow Jones.
--
--808
--00:58:04,830 ~-~-> 00:58:08,430
--We saw price obviously slip lower as well, okay, confirming
--
--809
--00:58:08,430 ~-~-> 00:58:13,740
--that upward momentum in the dollar. The s&p 500 also broke
--
--810
--00:58:13,740 ~-~-> 00:58:18,660
--down and slipped lower and the NASDAQ composite, not
--
--811
--00:58:18,660 ~-~-> 00:58:23,880
--surprising, slipped lower as well. Now let's look at the
--
--812
--00:58:23,910 ~-~-> 00:58:27,420
--fiber. Okay, and what I have here is the April month
--
--813
--00:58:27,420 ~-~-> 00:58:30,000
--delineate between the two red vertical lines, okay, and
--
--814
--00:58:30,000 ~-~-> 00:58:33,090
--we're looking at the fact that we were unable to make a
--
--815
--00:58:33,090 ~-~-> 00:58:36,600
--higher high here. Okay, and just for a second, let's shoot
--
--816
--00:58:36,600 ~-~-> 00:58:40,440
--over to the cable. You can see how in that same time frame
--
--817
--00:58:40,440 ~-~-> 00:58:43,680
--in the month of April, the cable was willing and able to
--
--818
--00:58:43,680 ~-~-> 00:58:47,790
--make a higher high. Okay, so let's go back to the fiber for
--
--819
--00:58:47,790 ~-~-> 00:58:54,360
--a second. This is market absolutely posted weaker technicals
--
--820
--00:58:54,570 ~-~-> 00:58:56,790
--across the board. In other words, between the two pairs,
--
--821
--00:58:57,090 ~-~-> 00:58:59,340
--fiber and cable because they're so closely correlated, they
--
--822
--00:58:59,340 ~-~-> 00:59:03,390
--usually trade and To the but as you can see here, the SMP
--
--823
--00:59:03,390 ~-~-> 00:59:07,800
--divergence correlated pair s&p divergence was showing that
--
--824
--00:59:07,800 ~-~-> 00:59:11,580
--there was absolutely no interest whatsoever going along in
--
--825
--00:59:11,580 ~-~-> 00:59:15,810
--the fiber. And if you recall back in when I was doing
--
--826
--00:59:15,810 ~-~-> 00:59:18,810
--reviews, we were talking about this market being the weaker
--
--827
--00:59:18,840 ~-~-> 00:59:22,110
--of the sisters all during this particular timeframe and this
--
--828
--00:59:22,110 ~-~-> 00:59:26,280
--is really the catalyst from my my viewpoints while I was
--
--829
--00:59:26,280 ~-~-> 00:59:29,580
--saying it real time in advance for the markets were trading.
--
--830
--00:59:30,060 ~-~-> 00:59:34,230
--We were looking for this old low to be traded to back in
--
--831
--00:59:34,230 ~-~-> 00:59:40,110
--here. Okay, so and also back here as well. Now, this high in
--
--832
--00:59:40,110 ~-~-> 00:59:43,470
--this high here, notice that we were lower here. Okay, so we
--
--833
--00:59:43,470 ~-~-> 00:59:49,020
--have February's high and April's high lower in the fiber.
--
--834
--00:59:49,380 ~-~-> 00:59:53,070
--Let's go over to the cable. Notice we were going higher in
--
--835
--00:59:53,070 ~-~-> 00:59:56,580
--the cable. Here's February is high in April's high so we
--
--836
--00:59:56,580 ~-~-> 00:59:59,190
--were posting higher highs in the cable. This was the
--
--837
--00:59:59,190 ~-~-> 01:00:02,550
--relatively ronger of the two pairs. So when there was a
--
--838
--01:00:02,550 ~-~-> 01:00:06,090
--buying opportunity, we could be buying in here. Okay, and be
--
--839
--01:00:06,090 ~-~-> 01:00:09,870
--more confident that the market is going to be more favorable
--
--840
--01:00:09,870 ~-~-> 01:00:13,470
--for us as a bowl if we're short term trader, but we're
--
--841
--01:00:13,470 ~-~-> 01:00:16,770
--focusing on the higher timeframe, intermediate term basis.
--
--842
--01:00:16,770 ~-~-> 01:00:21,030
--So we're looking for what the sell scenario and that being
--
--843
--01:00:21,030 ~-~-> 01:00:25,380
--the case with the fiber, okay, so you could look to sell
--
--844
--01:00:25,380 ~-~-> 01:00:29,100
--this market here, going into the seasonal timeframe
--
--845
--01:00:30,600 ~-~-> 01:00:31,500
--from this high
--
--846
--01:00:33,239 ~-~-> 01:00:36,509
--and the low you can see we have optimal trade entry in here.
--
--847
--01:00:37,079 ~-~-> 01:00:39,959
--And price did slide off the
--
--848
--01:00:42,570 ~-~-> 01:00:45,000
--cable at that same timeframe.
--
--849
--01:00:46,860 ~-~-> 01:00:54,120
--We had a larger price swing from this high down to this low
--
--850
--01:00:54,270 ~-~-> 01:00:56,460
--that the cable was retracing in.
--
--851
--01:00:58,650 ~-~-> 01:00:59,910
--Okay, so let's pull that up.
--
--852
--01:01:02,429 ~-~-> 01:01:06,389
--You can see here's the sweet spot. Okay, here's a 70.5 fib
--
--853
--01:01:06,389 ~-~-> 01:01:10,379
--level price went right to that level exactly to that level.
--
--854
--01:01:10,559 ~-~-> 01:01:15,329
--Okay. And I posted market review and a daily review
--
--855
--01:01:15,359 ~-~-> 01:01:19,499
--suggesting that I would be shorting at 163 a break above
--
--856
--01:01:19,499 ~-~-> 01:01:25,709
--163. Figure. Okay, so if you go back to that timeframe, and
--
--857
--01:01:25,709 ~-~-> 01:01:28,289
--look at the videos, you'll actually see me talk about being
--
--858
--01:01:28,289 ~-~-> 01:01:31,469
--short here. And this is the reason why we're within that
--
--859
--01:01:31,469 ~-~-> 01:01:35,939
--April time period for seasonally expecting a decline. Okay,
--
--860
--01:01:36,389 ~-~-> 01:01:41,249
--we went up into a higher timeframe. implied resistance
--
--861
--01:01:41,249 ~-~-> 01:01:45,239
--level, we're at a figure 163 Okay, so even though we were
--
--862
--01:01:45,239 ~-~-> 01:01:49,739
--bullish compared to the fiber comparably, we are still
--
--863
--01:01:49,739 ~-~-> 01:01:53,129
--within a timeframe when the price itself should be running
--
--864
--01:01:53,129 ~-~-> 01:01:55,979
--out of steam. And when we get to these levels like this, so
--
--865
--01:01:55,979 ~-~-> 01:01:59,489
--far, deep into a retracement of these price swings, you got
--
--866
--01:01:59,489 ~-~-> 01:02:02,279
--to expect weakness. So now let's look at what's happening
--
--867
--01:02:02,279 ~-~-> 01:02:07,019
--here. Also, we have the high APR and the high it may tire in
--
--868
--01:02:07,019 ~-~-> 01:02:09,659
--the cable. Let's go back to the dollar.
--
--869
--01:02:13,139 ~-~-> 01:02:14,159
--Look what's happening here.
--
--870
--01:02:15,750 ~-~-> 01:02:22,350
--We have lower, albeit not by much, we have a lower low here
--
--871
--01:02:22,560 ~-~-> 01:02:29,070
--than here. Okay, so the dollar was lower. The cable confirms
--
--872
--01:02:29,070 ~-~-> 01:02:34,470
--it higher. But let's go back to fiber. See this?
--
--873
--01:02:35,790 ~-~-> 01:02:36,690
--There's a USD
--
--874
--01:02:38,400 ~-~-> 01:02:43,350
--USD x SMT diversions. Okay. So this tells you that you have
--
--875
--01:02:43,350 ~-~-> 01:02:48,690
--a very, very large price swing, possibly unfolding going
--
--876
--01:02:48,690 ~-~-> 01:02:52,080
--forward. This tells you that it's going to be bearish for
--
--877
--01:02:52,080 ~-~-> 01:02:56,940
--the fiber. Okay, and since tandem trading occurs in cable
--
--878
--01:02:56,940 ~-~-> 01:03:00,000
--and fiber generally and you're looking for higher prices.
--
--879
--01:03:00,000 ~-~-> 01:03:03,720
--The dollar, you can get yourself in sync with a very, very
--
--880
--01:03:03,720 ~-~-> 01:03:08,490
--handsome enemy it turns short. And looking at this high
--
--881
--01:03:08,490 ~-~-> 01:03:15,240
--here, down to this low in here is a sweet spot and price
--
--882
--01:03:15,240 ~-~-> 01:03:17,970
--went way up to that point by the PIP and then fell out of
--
--883
--01:03:17,970 ~-~-> 01:03:21,930
--bed. And let's look at what happened here. Price does in
--
--884
--01:03:21,930 ~-~-> 01:03:25,590
--fact trade down but below this low in fact, small little
--
--885
--01:03:25,590 ~-~-> 01:03:30,030
--minor bounce in here and then finally broke through. Okay,
--
--886
--01:03:30,480 ~-~-> 01:03:35,610
--and eventually even traded even lower than that. If you'll
--
--887
--01:03:35,610 ~-~-> 01:03:41,280
--use the Fibonacci concept we talked about for this plan, we
--
--888
--01:03:41,280 ~-~-> 01:03:49,140
--look for on 27 extensions, 162 extensions and the 200
--
--889
--01:03:49,140 ~-~-> 01:03:53,640
--extension. This price swing is what we're going to use going
--
--890
--01:03:53,640 ~-~-> 01:03:58,140
--lower. Okay, so if you use this low, up to this high once
--
--891
--01:03:58,170 ~-~-> 01:04:01,410
--price structure, I'm sorry, my Structure breaks this low
--
--892
--01:04:01,410 ~-~-> 01:04:04,200
--here, you're gonna be looking for the 127 extension, which
--
--893
--01:04:04,200 ~-~-> 01:04:07,230
--it finds here handsome land bounces, and looking even gives
--
--894
--01:04:07,230 ~-~-> 01:04:10,050
--you another optimal trade entry to get short. Okay? This is
--
--895
--01:04:10,500 ~-~-> 01:04:14,010
--we're jumping ahead really so the short term trading part of
--
--896
--01:04:14,010 ~-~-> 01:04:18,300
--the series but price does give it a correction here trades
--
--897
--01:04:18,300 ~-~-> 01:04:22,560
--right up into old support broken now resistance falls out of
--
--898
--01:04:22,560 ~-~-> 01:04:27,900
--bed and goes what 162 extension and obviously, price had
--
--899
--01:04:27,900 ~-~-> 01:04:32,640
--snapped away from that rather handsomely. So, getting short
--
--900
--01:04:32,640 ~-~-> 01:04:35,490
--here on the notion that we are entering into the seasonal
--
--901
--01:04:35,760 ~-~-> 01:04:40,590
--time period and looking for SNP divergence is one avenue
--
--902
--01:04:40,590 ~-~-> 01:04:43,110
--here that you could have got short. If you miss this one.
--
--903
--01:04:43,110 ~-~-> 01:04:46,800
--This was the other opportunity to get short. Okay and right
--
--904
--01:04:46,800 ~-~-> 01:04:50,970
--at lower, that rather handsome price swing if you look at
--
--905
--01:04:50,970 ~-~-> 01:04:55,260
--what transpired just from the original high here in April
--
--906
--01:04:56,940 ~-~-> 01:05:04,170
--down to the 162 extension That's 1200 and 30 pips. Okay? And
--
--907
--01:05:04,170 ~-~-> 01:05:10,530
--if you got the second entry in here using the first of May
--
--908
--01:05:10,530 ~-~-> 01:05:19,530
--area, it's 11 51,150 pips. Okay, so not bad in terms of, you
--
--909
--01:05:19,530 ~-~-> 01:05:22,830
--know, pitfalls takes a little bit of time to get these guys
--
--910
--01:05:22,860 ~-~-> 01:05:25,830
--it doesn't happen overnight but you got to really hold on to
--
--911
--01:05:25,830 ~-~-> 01:05:28,410
--it and just have a lot of patience with them unfolding. If
--
--912
--01:05:28,410 ~-~-> 01:05:33,420
--you look at the cable once price gets up into this inside
--
--913
--01:05:33,420 ~-~-> 01:05:40,500
--the range concept, the sweet spot 163 is a big figure as
--
--914
--01:05:40,500 ~-~-> 01:05:44,250
--well. We are still within that April seasonal decline time
--
--915
--01:05:44,250 ~-~-> 01:05:49,140
--period. We have us dx SMT we have correlated pair SMT weaker
--
--916
--01:05:49,290 ~-~-> 01:05:53,220
--highs comparable to the higher high in the cable here. So
--
--917
--01:05:53,220 ~-~-> 01:05:58,260
--now what's what's going on in the lower timeframe? Okay,
--
--918
--01:05:58,260 ~-~-> 01:06:04,920
--let's let's let's use A hourly chart. Okay, here's what's
--
--919
--01:06:04,920 ~-~-> 01:06:11,010
--happening price trades up into that 163 figure trades off,
--
--920
--01:06:11,430 ~-~-> 01:06:15,870
--okay? Now as price trades lower like that, okay comes down
--
--921
--01:06:15,870 ~-~-> 01:06:21,090
--into that one that 62% level here on a higher timeframe
--
--922
--01:06:21,090 ~-~-> 01:06:24,240
--pricing finds a little bit short term support level
--
--923
--01:06:26,400 ~-~-> 01:06:29,100
--eventually breaks down below and looking comes right back up
--
--924
--01:06:29,100 ~-~-> 01:06:35,280
--to that same level here again, see what it does here runs
--
--925
--01:06:35,280 ~-~-> 01:06:38,280
--into it as resistance and in slides away.
--
--926
--01:06:40,739 ~-~-> 01:06:48,389
--Again, aggressive move lower. Okay, now let's add to this
--
--927
--01:06:50,850 ~-~-> 01:06:56,160
--the day separators. Okay. Now, if you missed the shorting
--
--928
--01:06:56,160 ~-~-> 01:07:01,560
--straight up into the 163 figure, okay. You have a Short term
--
--929
--01:07:02,160 ~-~-> 01:07:08,280
--high here, we have a higher high here, lower high here and a
--
--930
--01:07:08,280 ~-~-> 01:07:10,770
--lower high here. So this is a daily swing point this high,
--
--931
--01:07:10,800 ~-~-> 01:07:14,010
--this lower low, I'm sorry, lower high and lower high here,
--
--932
--01:07:14,190 ~-~-> 01:07:16,980
--okay, so we do have swing point here. So now we could be
--
--933
--01:07:16,980 ~-~-> 01:07:21,810
--looking to get short beyond that point in here. Okay, you
--
--934
--01:07:21,810 ~-~-> 01:07:27,210
--can use optimal trade entries. You can use reflections,
--
--935
--01:07:27,240 ~-~-> 01:07:31,350
--anything that you use to trade on your pattern, that's you
--
--936
--01:07:31,350 ~-~-> 01:07:38,340
--start hunting, okay, and we also have a higher price swing
--
--937
--01:07:38,340 ~-~-> 01:07:41,910
--point on a weekly basis. Okay, see these double lines here
--
--938
--01:07:42,840 ~-~-> 01:07:43,650
--and here.
--
--939
--01:07:45,690 ~-~-> 01:07:46,200
--And here.
--
--940
--01:07:47,790 ~-~-> 01:07:52,350
--We have the high of that week. So between this double set
--
--941
--01:07:52,350 ~-~-> 01:07:54,810
--and this double set, the highest here, then we have the
--
--942
--01:07:54,810 ~-~-> 01:07:58,110
--higher here, between these two, and then we have the high
--
--943
--01:07:58,110 ~-~-> 01:08:02,700
--here between this set In this set, so what is that? That is
--
--944
--01:08:02,700 ~-~-> 01:08:08,790
--a weekly swing high. So we have the high, lower high and
--
--945
--01:08:08,790 ~-~-> 01:08:12,480
--lower high. pull that up on your own weekly chart, you'll
--
--946
--01:08:12,480 ~-~-> 01:08:16,980
--see what I'm referring to. Now when you have that, also,
--
--947
--01:08:17,190 ~-~-> 01:08:21,660
--okay, that's when you have the acceleration in the price
--
--948
--01:08:21,660 ~-~-> 01:08:25,470
--movement much, much more aggressively moving lower. Okay.
--
--949
--01:08:25,830 ~-~-> 01:08:31,830
--And when we see the high, low, lower high here on the new
--
--950
--01:08:31,830 ~-~-> 01:08:36,180
--week, okay going into Monday and Tuesday, using the how to
--
--951
--01:08:36,180 ~-~-> 01:08:40,260
--catch explosive profits in the Forex concept we used in that
--
--952
--01:08:40,410 ~-~-> 01:08:46,080
--video. You're looking for Monday to Tuesday's London open to
--
--953
--01:08:46,110 ~-~-> 01:08:49,380
--four different not present you the high of The Week. This is
--
--954
--01:08:49,380 ~-~-> 01:08:53,730
--where this takes place we have Sunday trading Monday runs up
--
--955
--01:08:53,760 ~-~-> 01:08:57,270
--okay and it makes the high on Monday and then trades off now
--
--956
--01:08:57,270 ~-~-> 01:09:00,780
--if you miss that that's fine. Don't Don't Case price you
--
--957
--01:09:00,780 ~-~-> 01:09:03,690
--don't need you don't need to worry about rushing into it.
--
--958
--01:09:04,590 ~-~-> 01:09:09,240
--Once you have now a daily and weekly swing high, you can use
--
--959
--01:09:09,240 ~-~-> 01:09:14,310
--the high down to this low here. And look what you have. You
--
--960
--01:09:14,310 ~-~-> 01:09:19,260
--have the 79 seven treatment level laying directly on top of
--
--961
--01:09:19,650 ~-~-> 01:09:24,840
--this higher timeframe fib level that we just drew off the
--
--962
--01:09:24,840 ~-~-> 01:09:29,670
--daily. Okay, that's the 62% retracement level on the daily
--
--963
--01:09:31,199 ~-~-> 01:09:32,939
--and now we have overlapping fibs.
--
--964
--01:09:38,670 ~-~-> 01:09:43,110
--One, a one hour chart conversion rates here for a optimal
--
--965
--01:09:43,110 ~-~-> 01:09:47,340
--trade entry. This is a nice sucker rally. It gets everybody
--
--966
--01:09:47,340 ~-~-> 01:09:52,560
--excited chasing it but this time of day is New York open so
--
--967
--01:09:52,560 ~-~-> 01:09:55,020
--you could be selling in New York open to get in sync with
--
--968
--01:09:55,020 ~-~-> 01:09:58,350
--the higher timeframe and then ride it lower. Okay and
--
--969
--01:09:58,380 ~-~-> 01:10:04,260
--positioned there. You can see rather handsome declines. And
--
--970
--01:10:07,980 ~-~-> 01:10:10,620
--these are the moves that you want to hold on to dooring
--
--971
--01:10:11,070 ~-~-> 01:10:16,380
--enemy term price swing for our chart, and this is that
--
--972
--01:10:16,410 ~-~-> 01:10:20,940
--opportunity for seasonal decline in April here. And this is
--
--973
--01:10:20,940 ~-~-> 01:10:24,330
--that lower high going into the beginning of April. If you
--
--974
--01:10:24,330 ~-~-> 01:10:29,940
--use the high here and price trades down. If you look at the
--
--975
--01:10:29,940 ~-~-> 01:10:34,920
--high here, pull it down to that low. You see how price goes
--
--976
--01:10:34,920 ~-~-> 01:10:38,010
--we have to set nitration level and stays there for a little
--
--977
--01:10:38,010 ~-~-> 01:10:43,170
--bit and it finally breaks down. Okay. Notice also that we
--
--978
--01:10:43,170 ~-~-> 01:10:48,030
--have smaller optimal trade entries in that same area. And
--
--979
--01:10:48,030 ~-~-> 01:10:51,270
--you have a here as well here this high, low in here and it
--
--980
--01:10:51,270 ~-~-> 01:10:54,240
--breaks down. See, this is why you have to understand how
--
--981
--01:10:54,240 ~-~-> 01:10:59,520
--price can be fractal. Okay? It's not it's not a hard
--
--982
--01:10:59,520 ~-~-> 01:11:01,590
--concept. To learn if you spend some time with it but you
--
--983
--01:11:01,590 ~-~-> 01:11:04,080
--have to definitely go through high timeframe charts and
--
--984
--01:11:04,080 ~-~-> 01:11:06,210
--start breaking them down and looking at specific turning
--
--985
--01:11:06,210 ~-~-> 01:11:13,050
--points. The actual seasonal month that we're we're
--
--986
--01:11:13,290 ~-~-> 01:11:19,500
--highlighting here is if if you look at the high here to this
--
--987
--01:11:19,500 ~-~-> 01:11:22,110
--low, okay and the reason why I'm pulling is because these
--
--988
--01:11:22,110 ~-~-> 01:11:25,050
--are the highest high amongst all these candles, and this is
--
--989
--01:11:25,050 ~-~-> 01:11:28,170
--the lowest low amongst all these candles, okay, and price
--
--990
--01:11:28,170 ~-~-> 01:11:31,560
--goes right back up to the sweet spot, which is an
--
--991
--01:11:31,560 ~-~-> 01:11:36,720
--overlapping of this higher timeframe fib level in here.
--
--992
--01:11:37,350 ~-~-> 01:11:40,020
--Okay, so you can see how that converges. So you can get
--
--993
--01:11:40,020 ~-~-> 01:11:44,580
--short in here, one, even the 132 50 level would have been a
--
--994
--01:11:44,580 ~-~-> 01:11:49,560
--nice opportunity to get short here and go much lower. So
--
--995
--01:11:49,650 ~-~-> 01:11:53,340
--again, much in the same vein that we showed with the cable.
--
--996
--01:11:54,120 ~-~-> 01:11:57,450
--You can see how price did fall rather handsomely
--
--997
--01:11:58,710 ~-~-> 01:11:59,910
--in the fiber
--
--998
--01:12:01,230 ~-~-> 01:12:04,620
--Again, here's that bounce at an old low, came up and gave
--
--999
--01:12:04,620 ~-~-> 01:12:06,120
--you the optimal trade entry in here.
--
--1000
--01:12:07,710 ~-~-> 01:12:08,640
--And we'll just do that.
--
--1001
--01:12:11,010 ~-~-> 01:12:13,500
--draw that in here real quick, just for sake of completion,
--
--1002
--01:12:14,040 ~-~-> 01:12:17,430
--and say nice, decent level in here. And you're down to our
--
--1003
--01:12:17,490 ~-~-> 01:12:20,940
--five minute chart, you can actually see, I'll trade entry in
--
--1004
--01:12:20,940 ~-~-> 01:12:23,490
--here on this smaller minor price swing. So again, another
--
--1005
--01:12:23,520 ~-~-> 01:12:26,910
--fractal pattern, within higher timeframe fractal that's
--
--1006
--01:12:26,910 ~-~-> 01:12:29,430
--broken down to a smaller factor, which is, you know, what
--
--1007
--01:12:29,430 ~-~-> 01:12:35,130
--we're showing here. So even even looking at how price breaks
--
--1008
--01:12:35,130 ~-~-> 01:12:38,490
--down from these larger enemies from price swings, and then
--
--1009
--01:12:38,490 ~-~-> 01:12:41,670
--162 extension, lookout doesn't give you much in terms of
--
--1010
--01:12:41,700 ~-~-> 01:12:45,930
--movement below that before it snaps away. Okay. Now, if you
--
--1011
--01:12:45,930 ~-~-> 01:12:50,310
--held on to it and it breaks this high here, once price runs
--
--1012
--01:12:50,310 ~-~-> 01:12:54,240
--above that, you have now break or market structure shift.
--
--1013
--01:12:54,630 ~-~-> 01:12:56,910
--Okay? So you don't want to just collapse the trade there.
--
--1014
--01:12:57,030 ~-~-> 01:12:59,970
--You want to wait for the chart to retest and get back down
--
--1015
--01:13:00,000 ~-~-> 01:13:04,650
--These lows and by using another optimal trade entry, okay,
--
--1016
--01:13:04,680 ~-~-> 01:13:08,160
--you can see a better place to cover your short instead of
--
--1017
--01:13:08,190 ~-~-> 01:13:10,860
--getting out here and panicking, you can get out down here at
--
--1018
--01:13:10,860 ~-~-> 01:13:15,450
--the 162 extension and then obviously price starts to move
--
--1019
--01:13:15,450 ~-~-> 01:13:17,430
--away from that. Okay, so
--
--1020
--01:13:19,980 ~-~-> 01:13:21,150
--that's what looked
--
--1021
--01:13:23,100 ~-~-> 01:13:27,720
--at you in April staring you right in the mug, okay for for
--
--1022
--01:13:27,720 ~-~-> 01:13:31,500
--long term intermediate term price swings. And if you look at
--
--1023
--01:13:31,500 ~-~-> 01:13:37,050
--how the tools or macro view really help you get in sync with
--
--1024
--01:13:37,050 ~-~-> 01:13:40,770
--these trends is going to use a simple short term analysis
--
--1025
--01:13:40,770 ~-~-> 01:13:44,430
--concepts to get you in the trades, Judas swings, intraday
--
--1026
--01:13:44,460 ~-~-> 01:13:47,790
--optimal trade entries using the weekly concept of looking
--
--1027
--01:13:47,790 ~-~-> 01:13:51,930
--for the weekly high Monday to Tuesday's long and open an
--
--1028
--01:13:51,930 ~-~-> 01:13:55,890
--hour the very latest Wednesday's London open. And if you're
--
--1029
--01:13:55,890 ~-~-> 01:14:00,840
--in bullish environments, you would use the weekly Monday,
--
--1030
--01:14:00,840 ~-~-> 01:14:04,980
--Tuesday London open for the low the week to form and or the
--
--1031
--01:14:04,980 ~-~-> 01:14:08,370
--latest Wednesdays London open to capture the weekly low, and
--
--1032
--01:14:08,370 ~-~-> 01:14:10,470
--then get in sync with that and try to hold on to these
--
--1033
--01:14:10,470 ~-~-> 01:14:13,800
--things as long as you possibly can. It's very difficult if
--
--1034
--01:14:13,800 ~-~-> 01:14:17,760
--you're always just looking every minor price swing in the
--
--1035
--01:14:17,760 ~-~-> 01:14:20,550
--market while you're in these. That's why it's much better if
--
--1036
--01:14:20,550 ~-~-> 01:14:22,830
--you're going to have this concept in trading and still do
--
--1037
--01:14:22,830 ~-~-> 01:14:24,660
--short term trading, you need to have separate accounts
--
--1038
--01:14:24,690 ~-~-> 01:14:29,880
--obviously. But you just put the trade on and let the stops
--
--1039
--01:14:30,270 ~-~-> 01:14:35,640
--stay outside of, you know, potential striking distance. And
--
--1040
--01:14:35,670 ~-~-> 01:14:39,660
--by that I mean if you get short in here, you let it run down
--
--1041
--01:14:39,660 ~-~-> 01:14:43,320
--for a while before you do anything with trailing stop losses
--
--1042
--01:14:43,320 ~-~-> 01:14:46,260
--inside of the because price can come back and tag you and
--
--1043
--01:14:46,260 ~-~-> 01:14:49,380
--then you'll miss all this. Okay, so you want to look for
--
--1044
--01:14:49,560 ~-~-> 01:14:52,920
--support levels to be broken like it does here and then comes
--
--1045
--01:14:52,920 ~-~-> 01:14:56,490
--back and retest it and trades lower. Then Then move your
--
--1046
--01:14:56,490 ~-~-> 01:14:59,700
--stop into a profitable area where you can lock in a very
--
--1047
--01:14:59,700 ~-~-> 01:15:03,330
--small portion of the profit. And then don't chase it. Don't
--
--1048
--01:15:03,330 ~-~-> 01:15:06,960
--trail down too tight. Learn to scale out profits going down
--
--1049
--01:15:07,260 ~-~-> 01:15:12,480
--at the reasonable predetermined 127 162 and 200 extensions,
--
--1050
--01:15:23,430 ~-~-> 01:15:30,570
--the fib levels for the cable again from this high up here,
--
--1051
--01:15:31,260 ~-~-> 01:15:36,570
--this price swing here, okay, this price swing here is the
--
--1052
--01:15:36,570 ~-~-> 01:15:42,030
--second leg of this move here. So we have to use this price
--
--1053
--01:15:42,030 ~-~-> 01:15:45,990
--swing before we would ever use this one or this one. Okay.
--
--1054
--01:15:46,620 ~-~-> 01:15:51,870
--So with that concept, let's take a look at the lowest low
--
--1055
--01:15:51,870 ~-~-> 01:16:01,590
--candle here and do that Hi. Okay, and here is the 127
--
--1056
--01:16:02,160 ~-~-> 01:16:06,930
--extension, and here's the 162 extension. And then here's the
--
--1057
--01:16:06,930 ~-~-> 01:16:10,350
--200 extension here. Okay, you can see how price came down,
--
--1058
--01:16:10,920 ~-~-> 01:16:14,460
--didn't get to this old low, but they get to 200. So you
--
--1059
--01:16:14,460 ~-~-> 01:16:17,760
--could have scaled off, obviously, you know 50% of the
--
--1060
--01:16:17,760 ~-~-> 01:16:24,180
--position. Once you get half profit, I'm sorry 3030 pips move
--
--1061
--01:16:24,180 ~-~-> 01:16:28,410
--to break even. And then look for 127 extension now you could
--
--1062
--01:16:28,410 ~-~-> 01:16:35,700
--take 30% off of the total position, okay, or you could take
--
--1063
--01:16:36,990 ~-~-> 01:16:39,750
--1020
--
--1064
--01:16:39,780 ~-~-> 01:16:43,470
--at 62 and then leave the remaining portion that you reach
--
--1065
--01:16:43,470 ~-~-> 01:16:48,660
--for 200 or you could just take the remaining 50% divided by
--
--1066
--01:16:48,660 ~-~-> 01:16:53,910
--30 of the original position, take it off at 127 and then the
--
--1067
--01:16:53,910 ~-~-> 01:16:58,260
--remaining 20% would be off at 162 extension and not reach
--
--1068
--01:16:58,260 ~-~-> 01:17:02,310
--for the 200 or You could just, you know, go for broke and
--
--1069
--01:17:02,310 ~-~-> 01:17:06,900
--once it takes 127 out and starts reaching for 162, show your
--
--1070
--01:17:06,900 ~-~-> 01:17:10,290
--stop down to the 127 for the remaining portion, so you can,
--
--1071
--01:17:10,350 ~-~-> 01:17:11,970
--you know, if it comes back up at least you're going to get
--
--1072
--01:17:11,970 ~-~-> 01:17:15,510
--out with your remaining half at, you know, a nice logical
--
--1073
--01:17:15,510 ~-~-> 01:17:19,320
--area to take profits. And if it gets down to 160 to take
--
--1074
--01:17:19,320 ~-~-> 01:17:23,100
--half of it there off and then the remaining 25% reach for
--
--1075
--01:17:23,100 ~-~-> 01:17:27,150
--the 200 and and show your stop just above the 162 extension,
--
--1076
--01:17:27,180 ~-~-> 01:17:30,300
--okay, but there's a lot of different ways and I'm trying not
--
--1077
--01:17:30,300 ~-~-> 01:17:34,680
--to give you a very clear black and white way of doing it
--
--1078
--01:17:34,680 ~-~-> 01:17:37,860
--because I want you to have some input on your own. There's a
--
--1079
--01:17:37,860 ~-~-> 01:17:41,100
--lot of freestyling you can do with these using analysis
--
--1080
--01:17:41,100 ~-~-> 01:17:43,890
--concepts. And again, hopefully this has just been providing
--
--1081
--01:17:43,890 ~-~-> 01:17:49,050
--you a an example on how to intermediate term swing trade,
--
--1082
--01:17:49,410 ~-~-> 01:17:52,200
--and using the higher timeframe macro views to get in sync
--
--1083
--01:17:52,200 ~-~-> 01:17:56,040
--with with the market and expect learn to anticipate price
--
--1084
--01:17:56,040 ~-~-> 01:17:58,710
--moves, and then using the smaller timeframe concepts we've
--
--1085
--01:17:58,710 ~-~-> 01:18:02,370
--used in the other video. To help you with your timing and
--
--1086
--01:18:02,370 ~-~-> 01:18:06,330
--such, and those being the optimal trade entry video, high
--
--1087
--01:18:06,330 ~-~-> 01:18:10,560
--probability price patterns video and obviously you need to
--
--1088
--01:18:10,560 ~-~-> 01:18:14,520
--be cognizant of the risk and equity management so, so those
--
--1089
--01:18:14,520 ~-~-> 01:18:18,810
--videos in there very insightful and applicable obviously for
--
--1090
--01:18:18,810 ~-~-> 01:18:22,650
--this, this tutorial so I'm gonna close it here. And
--
--1091
--01:18:22,650 ~-~-> 01:18:24,870
--hopefully this has been insightful to you guys. And if you
--
--1092
--01:18:24,870 ~-~-> 01:18:27,510
--have any questions, obviously just post them on the forums
--
--1093
--01:18:27,510 ~-~-> 01:18:31,020
--at baby pips calm and until then I wish you good luck and
--
--1094
--01:18:31,020 ~-~-> 01:18:31,560
--good trading.

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