ICT Market Maker Primer Course - 18 - OTE Primer - Intro To ICT Optimal Trade Entry.srt
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ICT: Okay, folks, welcome. This is gonna be the first video
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I do as a beginning point of origin, if you want to call it
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that, for my continuing series on the YouTube channel, inner
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circle trader there's going to be daily entry in terms of
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the YouTube channel will have a Monday through Friday video
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log, so there'll be something posted. And in October 2017
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I'm going to be doing a New York session, live commentary.
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So I'll be talking about one particular pair per day. based
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on personal choice and selection, that doesn't mean there's
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going to be a setup that comes to fruition every single day
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just means I'm going to give you an example focusing on one
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particular pair. And using that as a foundation and
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understanding your in learning price action. So, the first
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thing I want to kind of bring the focus to is why everyone
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starts trading. Obviously, they want to make money. Okay,
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number one, I'm not promising you that. Okay, because no one
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can. The only thing I can tell you is this is a particular
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pattern that I first discovered in price action. And it was
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very easy to spot, very easy to see and understood the
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mechanics rather quickly. And I think from everyone I've
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ever taught, this is the one pattern that most gravitate
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towards. There's a lot of different trading patterns out
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there, especially in my personal repertoire, but be told I
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only have only two setups that look at. And I'm not going to
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give you those particular setups here. But I'm going to be
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teaching you the generic optimal trade entry from a
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foundational standpoint, or bare basics approach to it. Now,
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right away, much like everyone else has already gone through
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my free tutorials, they either dismissed it as well, you
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know, it's too easy, too simple trading can't be that easy.
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And no trading isn't technically easy, quote unquote.
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difficult this is you have to measure the amount of risk
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involved for every setup, and then you have to stick to a
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trading plan that you know, follows that setup. And even
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that doesn't guarantee you're gonna make money. So the only
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thing I'm guaranteeing you here is a solid understanding of
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what I see in terms of price action as it relates to optimal
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trade entry, or as it's themed on the internet and in my own
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tutorials, OTV Just abbreviation for optimal trade entry.
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Alright, so the first idea is, number one, before we do
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anything, I'll kind of like want to remind you all that I
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did a lecture years and years ago about how your trading
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plan as many as some might feel it's necessary to have, you
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know, 14 page, you know, treaty, what it is you're going to
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do. I think personally, once you understand the mechanics of
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it all, and what you're doing conceptually, it only needs to
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be enough to fill the back of a business card. Okay, so you
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need a short little list of things that you know, by heart,
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what's your risk model? How to frame that? What makes your
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entry, what gives you the conditions in the marketplace that
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makes you bullish, or bearish? And you know, how you execute
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and how you manage that trade? And then you obviously, you
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know, where do you take your profits at? So obviously, it's
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a very oversimplification on my part, it may I understand
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that. But my return back to online I guess, tutelage and
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teaching is really kind of like bringing it back in the
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scope of simplification. Because I have a lot of things that
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I've taught everyone about trading every asset class,
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specifically forex. The common consensus is because
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everyone's tried to learn everything I taught, and they
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tried to apply it to every possible scenario and every
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particular trading day that they had time to sit in front of
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the charts, it doesn't promote, you know, a solid
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understanding. In fact, it creates kind of like a paralysis
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effect. So what happens is, is everyone quickly walks away
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from the material thinking, Well, number one, he's just a
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demo guy because you can't do it. Or because I haven't
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showed a track record. And it's always been about you not
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about me. So if you take this information, use it. I promise
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you, you will have a greater understanding about price
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action. And you have right now, that's the only thing I can
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promise Now, does that mean you're going to be making any
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money? No, I can't promise that. Okay, so everything I
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talked about
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is going to be referred to as a hypothetical scenario,
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because I'm not trying to take ownership of the risk and
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rewards that you take in using this information. So just
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understand that it's for informational purposes only. I
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think if you look at it, you'll quickly see that there's
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something of worth in terms of studying it. So the first
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thing we're gonna look at, is understanding what makes the
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market predisposed to go higher or lower. Now, if you
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recall, for those who have had that benefit of going through
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my old tutorials, I had a teaching on selecting key support
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resistance levels, and it's primarily just marking from a
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higher timeframe monthly down into the lower timeframe. So
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when I say lower timeframe, that would be about before
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hours, the lowest I'd go in terms of defining it as a key
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Anything less than four hours is too short term to refine
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that on a large institutional basis. So, what I like to look
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for is am I taught on free tutorials is that if you use the
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higher timeframe monthly, weekly, daily and four hour, and
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we'll just leave the four hour off for right now just focus
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on the monthly, daily and weekly timeframes. If you look for
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key levels where price has moved away from it, in other
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words, if prices moved up to a resistance level, and
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repelled and went lower, we can reasonably assume that there
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was a large degree of institutions that had a interest in
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being short there. And if the market trades down to a level
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and bounces off of it and goes higher, we can reasonably
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assume that there is an institutional basis for that rally
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to ensue. Now, without going into great detail and
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revisiting everything I've ever done in trying to
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compressing into a very short video, just know that that
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simple premise of using Higher timeframe chart. And these
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are monthly chart, there's plenty of high probability
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scenarios that you could find just using a monthly chart.
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Now, you don't get a whole lot of setups. But if you're
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watching a wide array of particular assets, there's always
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something trading at or near a monthly level. Okay? And
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what's a monthly level, an old high, an old low, as simple
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as that. Now, everything I'm going to be teaching and
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revisiting in the YouTube channel is all about
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simplification. Very simple processes, supply ideas, no
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indicators, no gimmicks, none of those types of things. You
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don't need all that stuff. Very simple understand price
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action. The premise behind what makes these things strong is
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we're looking for the evidence that there's going to be a
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institutional sponsorship behind the price move. That means
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big entities, deep pockets, lots of orders coming in large
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sizable orders are coming in. We're not looking at ladders.
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We're not Looking at little tiny little fluctuations of
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intraday volatility, we're looking at big, massive telltale
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signs that these big boys have pushed price around. And you
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can see that on the higher timeframe. I've said this so many
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times if folks would just focus on these timeframes, it will
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answer 80% of the problems you're having, because you're too
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worried about what's going on in these lower timeframes.
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Because you're in Namur by something maybe I've done with
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the intraday chart, five minute, 15 minutes, something that
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we've been wanting to chart to do on social media,
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everybody's a wizard now. They're showing all kinds of
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things that they've either done or can do. And that's great,
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but one minute charts are not going to decipher what Smart
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Money is doing. That's just very short term volatility. Now,
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I'm not disparaging the ability to make money doing that
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because I can do it just like this. Well, the next guy can,
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but what I really want to focus my time on this is what I
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taught from 2010 as it relates just to forex, but it really
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goes across all asset classes if you use a higher
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timeframes. On any asset classes, you're looking to
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speculate in Our study, that is where the big money moves
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are, it's as simple as that. It doesn't get any plainer than
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that. Okay, so we're going to assume for a moment that we
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assume that the markets bullish, okay, and we would be
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looking for the market to trade higher. Optimal trade entry
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is really based on buying retracements. Okay, as the market
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makes a impulse price move higher, that impulse price move
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has to be incorporating a break in market structure. And
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I'll show you what that looks like in the chart. And then
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you're what you're doing is you're trying to buy the
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retracements lower and the obviously it's very cliche to
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hear in technical analysis, buy the dips, sell the rallies,
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okay. If you're, if you're bullish, you're gonna be buying
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the dips or any retracements lower after a price like
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higher. And then the expectation is you're buying it when it
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retraces and then you want to buy it as it does that and
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then capture the next leg higher, and everything's reverse
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for when it's bearish. We'd be looking for rallies in price,
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and we are looking to sell those rallies with the
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expectation that we're going to break to lower lows. Okay?
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And that's the optimal trade entry short and
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optimal trade entry long in a bear definition, simple
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definition. So what it looks like as on a fib, this is the
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basic model. There's been many approaches to having the
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Fibonacci show what I use for optimal trade entry, but this
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is the bare bones This is how it started. This is how it is
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and I'll show you what these settings are. Let's go here and
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click on analyze Alessi the settings that way you can set
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your mt four or equivalent to the same. The zero level is
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first profit and scaling I'll explain these as I go 62%
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retracement level I'm rounding it. And then you have the 100
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level which is one here. And then we have the percent sign
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dollars. Just allows the MT four platform to plot the actual
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value. You can see that over here, and then it's point 705.
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For the sweet spot for optimal trade entry, that's the price
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level, I'd like to see price trade to, and 79%. And we have
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our target levels which is zero, negative 0.6 to negative
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zero to seven, and then negative one for symmetrical price
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swing. Okay, and then the same as this done over here. I'm
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going to show you the property settings for that. It's the
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same thing as shown in the scale of looking for downside
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objectives. So the premises will be looking for price to do
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something like this. Okay, we have a impulse price leg
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higher and then we have another impulse price leg off that
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level and trading down into optimal trade entry, okay, so
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we're trying to do is get below halfway of that price leg
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higher down into 60 to 70 and a half to 70% retracement
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level. Okay. I try to get my fill at 62 just so everyone
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knows right away it's for completeness sake I try to get at
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or very close to the 62% tracing level I allow up to a
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little small deviation below that so nice that trace level
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280 Okay, I'll allow that for price. Now. My stock will be
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exactly at this low, not 10 pips or five pips below that
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it's gonna be right at that low. Okay. So it's the easily
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defined if we're trying to get in at 60% trace level, it'd
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be my Philippine one. I'm sorry. 12 34.3 was called. This is
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the gold market, behind all this stuff. That's the price is
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showing, I'd like to get their fill at basically 1235, we'll
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call it. Okay, just a little bit about 62. I'm not going to
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fancy dance around, try to get the actual level, I just want
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to be in a level. That makes sense. Okay. And then between
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that and where I think the low should be formed based on my
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analysis, where price would be terms for the price swing,
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I'll show you what that looks like in a chart. The stock
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will be exactly right there. So between the two reference
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points, that would be the risk. Okay. The level up here.
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Zero level is when you take off first profit. Now, I like to
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go a little bit early, because you can always feel getting
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back to this high. So at the high or just below it. That's
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where my first profit is. That's your first scaling. That's
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not your first target. first target is here. Okay, so you
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got to expect price to want to eventually get to this level
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or maybe this level, if you're really extremely bullish all
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the way up here to have a measured move, what's the measured
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move in post leg low to high, that move is it same thing,
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just add it to the high up. Okay, so that's a perfectly
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symmetrical price swing, you don't always happen to that
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degree. And that's why we had to be looking to take profit
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rate before or high because it could fail there. And if it
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goes above it, at the 127 extension, basically is what this
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is going to be looking to take something off there. And if
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we get to 162 extension up here, I would be another portion
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for me to take profits and then if I'm extremely bullish,
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I'll leave small piece on for a measured move type effect.
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So the same thing is seen over here for when the markets
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bearish, we look for an impulse leg Lower in price. Okay,
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and then we expect to see price retrace higher
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back into optimal trade entry. And that's defined between 62
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and 79 centration. Well, it could be anywhere in here. Now
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the problem is, is I'm not teaching supply and demand. So
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supply and demand zones and stuff like that I don't do those
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types of things. I look for specific price levels. And I'll
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teach you through the month of October, how to refine that
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down to a specific price level and not just wonder, you know
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where it is in that zone, you're going to be taking a trade,
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okay, so I'm going to give actual price levels to look for.
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And the same thing, we would expect the price to show
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willingness to drop lower, limiting our risk to the actual
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high between the entry and the high. That's our risk. So we
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would take that amount of risk defined divided by, you know,
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the percent risk that we're willing to say Based on your
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account, we'll say it's a half a percent, whatever half
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percent of your account is, you take that in terms of the
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pips, and break that down, that would give you your per PIP
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leverage. And I know it's something I'm brushing over that
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rather quickly. And it's because I'm trying to just give you
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a foundation. And then obviously, through the entire scope
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of October, we'll actually refine that so you can see how to
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do your risk, how to determine your risk and figure out what
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you can earn on the position and what you're you're risking,
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and I'll teach you how to move all the stops when when it's
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supposed to be done and all that but ultimately, we would
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expect to see it then move down into some reasonable
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objective first profit would be down here, but just above
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the old low, so we will don't take profit here. The thing
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is, this is what why most traders screw up and they don't
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make money and they're not profitable, either in demo or in
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live, is they don't do this practice right here knowing
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where to get out at their first scale. You have to know what
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that is. And it has to be a reasonable amount of range to
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promote the idea of justification for the risk. So if I know
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I'm getting in here, and my entry exit at a loss is up here
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with my stop, it has to be a reasonable, you know, better
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than, in my opinion, better than two to one. Okay? And
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that's about as good as I get in terms of trusting reward to
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risk ratios. Okay. So, what I'm looking for is everyone will
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look at it this way. They'll say, Okay, I'm, I'm trading
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here at a short and my risk is here. So that's my risk.
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Okay, whatever that multiple is, then they start doing this.
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Okay. So, if I get short from that point, there's one or
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there's two artists, three artists for I think that's
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flawed. Okay. And that's the reason why I make fun of folks
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when they want to talk about risk reward models. It really
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should be done on first scaling. Okay, so if I'm getting
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here as an entry and my risk is here, it needs to be enough
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of the Position coming off, that promotes at least two to
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one. So this is one are in terms of risk, whatever that is,
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I have to be able to make two times that in my first profit,
280
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that's what I'm trying to shoot for. Now, sometimes I'll
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take trades that are just slightly underneath two might be
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like one in three quarters, okay? If I'm really, really
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aggressive and I'm just in a fast market, and we're not even
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past mark, I should say it like this if I'm in a market that
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is indecisive, but I'm already in a position so management,
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I'll, I'll look to take about one and a half percent, but
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I'm really looking for trades that will frame a model that
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will give me around two, okay, so whatever my risk is, from
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here to here, I want to times that from my entry to first
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profit, okay, and that's why I want to get as deep as I can,
291
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you know, into that 70.5 level, I'm not going to demand 79%
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tracing level. I'm gonna be looking for 70.5 preferably,
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they give me my entry at 62. So that's what I'm looking for.
294
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So, not all trade scenarios are gonna give me this gearing.
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But the ones that do, they're the ones I'm going to take,
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okay? And obviously, it's not as good if it's on like a
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minor five minute chart, because the range is gonna be very,
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very small, the setups that are on like an hourly chart,
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they're good, because it'll give me enough of a range to get
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close to that two to one, reward the risk. And if I get
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that, everything past that first, scaling out takes care of
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itself. And that's why it's, I laugh when I hear folks
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saying it's stupid to take first profit or scaling out
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profits because your initial risk is x, and then you've
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taken a small profit, yada, yada, well, that's because I'm
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looking for these objectives down here, and it takes care of
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itself. Okay, and it ends up becoming my last portion ends
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up being way more generally Then what I did in my first
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scaling. So it's, it's not, it's not an issue for me to be
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worrying about. And if you see examples of going forward,
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you'll you'll see quickly, there's no reason to be thinking
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it's a bad idea, actually. So
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let's go over to the charts. And I'll give you some examples
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of how quickly and easily you can find these setups. And it
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will give you all kinds of examples of it going forward in
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October. Okay, we're over here@tradingview.com. And
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admittedly, I'm a little clumsy when it comes to this
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platform. I've not been active in using it, but I've been
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practicing with it, so that we can use it as our medium for
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our teachings. So I want to kind of like draw your attention
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to how price on the eurodollar This is a weekly timeframe.
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And price in recent weeks have
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pushed above
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these old Highs over here. Okay. So if we did this on a
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monthly scale, and let's do it just for completeness sake.
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Okay, you can see this pie here.
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Let me zoom in a little bit.
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So we have this high here, and this high comes in at 117 14.
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Okay 117 14 for this particular month. So what I'm going to
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do is I'm going to draw a horizontal line right on it. And
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I'm gonna ask you a question regarding pricing. So if we see
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price trade on this particular month, right here, it trades
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above this high rate above it. Once we go above this old
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high, just think in terms of simple support resistance,
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folks, it's not complicated. When price is above it,
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whatever that price level is, and then we're gonna we've
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already assumed not simply that you figured it out. It was
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174 The markets trade in an algorithmic format. Okay,
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there's price engines that generate, you know, runs on
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pricing, and runs on stops and it's accelerations in price
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and we're delivery skips and jumps to specific areas in
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pricing. The easiest way to understand what that is, is if
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you look at a chart, you can do it like on an hourly chart
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or a 15 minute timeframe. You can see it on all timeframes,
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but really 15 in one minute. If you do it over a course of a
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week, you'll see how price gravitates from a full figure.
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Okay, now that would be an example of like 117 00 to 118 00
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that'd be a full Penny move in the euro dollar. That one
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penny move is broken down algorithmically to the 117 at
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level 117 50 level or mid figure 117. 20 level, and then we
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have 117. Big figure. Okay, so my question to you is this if
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price traces above it, this old high back here because we
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broke through that, this low this high, I'm sorry, this high
354
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is 117 14. So from an algorithmic standpoint, what price
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level would it want to reach back down into if it's going to
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go down for support? 117 20 because it's just above the
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117 14, right? So, if this high would have been 117, say,
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65, what would the level be? That we, you'd expect to see it
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reach down into for an algorithmic support level 117 50, mid
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figure, okay. So think in terms of that. Okay. And what this
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does is it eliminates all this distraction. Okay, looking at
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ladders and depth of market and all those types of things.
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You can probably swear by and tell me you've done really,
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00:24:03,630 --> 00:24:06,360
really well. And that's great. Just like anybody else using
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00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:08,640
crossovers and MACD, they can tell me they've done really
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00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,270
well, too. I'm not telling you that you can't make money
367
00:24:12,270 --> 00:24:15,180
doing that kind of stuff, I'm just simply suggesting to you,
368
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,030
there's a much easier approach to doing this, then
369
00:24:18,030 --> 00:24:22,530
everyone's doing. So we're using an old high here. And while
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00:24:22,530 --> 00:24:26,910
the level is 117 14, and the specific high, from an
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00:24:26,910 --> 00:24:29,520
algorithmic standpoint, we would look for sensitivity or
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00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,410
support the form around or at 117 20. Okay, so we're gonna
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leave the level here, and we're gonna drop down into a
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daily. Okay, so we have the one four on 117 14 level on our
375
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:48,390
charts. And now I'm going to ask you to consider what is
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00:24:48,390 --> 00:24:52,320
going on in reference to the institutional level from an
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00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,360
algorithmic standpoint. In other words, we looked at our
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00:24:54,360 --> 00:24:59,970
pricing model, it's four figure above it, the 20 level above
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00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,110
That mid figure 50 above that the 80 level institutional.
380
00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:09,270
And then we have the next full figure, okay, or 118. So if
381
00:25:09,270 --> 00:25:13,770
we're above price, when it trades above it here, we expect
382
00:25:13,770 --> 00:25:18,690
to see price find support when it comes back down into the
383
00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:22,590
20 level. Okay, so now we can adjust this level here and
384
00:25:22,590 --> 00:25:27,180
show at 117 20. Okay, so 117 20 is the institutional price
385
00:25:27,180 --> 00:25:30,060
level, from an algorithmic standpoint, prices going to want
386
00:25:30,060 --> 00:25:32,700
to trade back down to that level. The reason why it does
387
00:25:32,700 --> 00:25:37,410
that is it allows the market to pick up orders at just below
388
00:25:37,470 --> 00:25:40,740
or above that level. Okay, there's limit orders there.
389
00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:44,220
There's their stops there, but generally, it's coming down
390
00:25:44,220 --> 00:25:47,640
to run stops to pair the orders with smart money's limit
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00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,930
orders. Okay. Every time you see my chart below the market,
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I'm always referring to it as running sell stops above the
393
00:25:55,050 --> 00:25:58,710
market, I'm always referring to it as running by stops those
394
00:25:58,710 --> 00:26:01,710
that are not in the know They will question whether or not
395
00:26:01,710 --> 00:26:02,700
I'm using the right
396
00:26:04,049 --> 00:26:07,619
definition. I am using the right definition because I'm
397
00:26:07,619 --> 00:26:10,679
looking at things from an institutional standpoint, those
398
00:26:11,129 --> 00:26:14,219
cell stops that are below the marketplace. Smart Money will
399
00:26:14,219 --> 00:26:20,219
have their buy limits to pair up with those sell stops.
400
00:26:20,309 --> 00:26:23,939
Okay, so my perspective is not retail. So I'm looking at it
401
00:26:23,939 --> 00:26:27,779
from an institutional standpoint, from where I'm from. I
402
00:26:27,779 --> 00:26:31,529
don't look at retail. So if we understand that the market is
403
00:26:31,529 --> 00:26:36,059
above this 20 level, when it trades down into it, we should
404
00:26:36,059 --> 00:26:46,649
see the market trade into a support level. That support
405
00:26:46,649 --> 00:26:51,179
level is going to be defined by some pricing model. And I
406
00:26:51,179 --> 00:26:54,569
just gave you one. It's very simple. We use the old monthly
407
00:26:54,569 --> 00:26:58,859
high and we're finding support we want to see price trade
408
00:26:58,859 --> 00:27:03,419
off of that. Give us a pattern. So now we have a level it's
409
00:27:03,419 --> 00:27:08,309
been rounded to an institutional level 20 1720 and now we
410
00:27:08,309 --> 00:27:12,209
can drop down into lower timeframe charts and we'll just
411
00:27:12,209 --> 00:27:23,189
look at a 15 minute timeframe. Okay and it will okay
412
00:27:27,270 --> 00:27:27,840
there we are.
413
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,190
Alright so we have price trading down on the 27th and
414
00:27:35,190 --> 00:27:38,820
hitting the 20 level notice what it does it hits it and then
415
00:27:38,820 --> 00:27:43,500
rallies away that rally. This is what you're looking for.
416
00:27:43,530 --> 00:27:51,810
You want to see it take out a short term high. That is seen
417
00:27:51,900 --> 00:27:59,340
here. Your short term high. It trades through it once it
418
00:27:59,340 --> 00:28:07,560
does that, This break above that short term high is a market
419
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:12,210
structure break. Okay? So now from an algorithmic standpoint
420
00:28:12,510 --> 00:28:16,920
to price will want to retrace back down. Once it retraces,
421
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,550
okay, it's going to pick up more orders and then rally
422
00:28:20,550 --> 00:28:25,860
again. Okay, we have another break above this short term
423
00:28:25,860 --> 00:28:31,080
high here. And I'm quite certain you guys that are more
424
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,620
proficient with trading view, you're probably smile and
425
00:28:34,620 --> 00:28:37,320
saying he could have done this or that and just made a copy.
426
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:41,280
I don't know that yet. Since Give me some time. So we have
427
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,570
another break here. Okay, so we have short term high broken
428
00:28:46,110 --> 00:28:50,970
and another high broken now watch. This high being higher
429
00:28:50,970 --> 00:28:53,910
than this one from a market structure standpoint, short term
430
00:28:53,910 --> 00:28:58,230
high, intermediate term high. So now when this breaks here,
431
00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:03,690
we have a much more Solid setup for potential running in
432
00:29:03,690 --> 00:29:08,070
price higher. Now we have to enter the optimal trade entry.
433
00:29:08,310 --> 00:29:11,970
Because we already have a consolidation in here, price
434
00:29:11,970 --> 00:29:16,080
trades away can come back to the consolidation, distribution
435
00:29:16,110 --> 00:29:22,800
redistribution, smart money reversal, low risk buy. In here
436
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,890
we're looking for another area to buy, okay, or another area
437
00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:28,920
of accumulation or re accumulation to take us above this
438
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,650
consolidation. Now, what I just described to you is a market
439
00:29:31,650 --> 00:29:35,400
maker by model, simple as that some of you will say, well,
440
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:41,400
that's wycoff. Well, I kind of got the idea from looking at
441
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,250
price action alone. And then when I saw wycoff, describing
442
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:48,870
that scenario, it made me feel better that I seen something
443
00:29:48,870 --> 00:29:52,080
that someone years and years before me was able to see that
444
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,050
same price structure, but his definitions and things I don't
445
00:29:55,050 --> 00:29:57,510
use that there's a different approach and folks that went
446
00:29:57,510 --> 00:30:00,000
through my mentorship know right away. I've challenged them
447
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,090
Well go through wycoff and see what I was teaching was
448
00:30:03,090 --> 00:30:06,540
wycoff. It's not it's very similar in terms of the general
449
00:30:06,540 --> 00:30:10,590
market profile itself, because it's a very generic process,
450
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,800
markup and discount, it's as simple as that. But the long
451
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:23,040
short is the, the run above here, right there. That impulse
452
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:28,140
leg is all that's necessary, because now we have a bi
453
00:30:28,380 --> 00:30:32,880
profile or model that would take us above this
454
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:36,000
consolidation. So we would look for this whole price action
455
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,780
right in here to be traded above, okay, because that's where
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00:30:39,780 --> 00:30:43,320
the buy stops are hitting sitting. So smart money buys down
457
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,170
here at the 20 level. And we would know this level
458
00:30:46,170 --> 00:30:51,570
beforehand, and it's basically the 118 20 because above this
459
00:30:51,570 --> 00:30:58,980
high, this high would be 118 10.2 and obviously, above
460
00:30:58,980 --> 00:31:03,690
118 10 The institutional level will be what 118 20. And that
461
00:31:03,690 --> 00:31:06,810
would be where smart money would want to exit running those
462
00:31:06,810 --> 00:31:11,880
buy stops. Why they want to run by stops, because the orders
463
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,370
they picked up down here going long, and then bought more
464
00:31:14,370 --> 00:31:17,760
down here. They're long. So they have to have people that
465
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,180
want to buy it from them at a higher price. So buy stocks,
466
00:31:21,180 --> 00:31:23,580
it would be above here. Why would there be buy stops there,
467
00:31:23,580 --> 00:31:27,120
Michael, because folks that are being short. This is the
468
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:31,140
last intermediate term high. For anyone that has not trail
469
00:31:31,140 --> 00:31:33,960
their stop loss lower and got stopped out. They're going to
470
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,480
make a run on that liquidity right there. Which is a reason
471
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:43,440
why the marketing goodbye model is so well. Good. Alright,
472
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,960
so we're going to look at this little area right in here.
473
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,070
Okay. And this is going to be the optimal trade entry that
474
00:31:50,070 --> 00:31:53,580
we're going to talk about Just for tonight. And let's make
475
00:31:53,580 --> 00:31:54,510
this a little bit
476
00:31:56,100 --> 00:31:56,610
bigger.
477
00:32:00,510 --> 00:32:05,040
Okay, so this impulse leg rolling away, and then coming back
478
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,250
down picking up more orders. That's optimal trade entry.
479
00:32:08,490 --> 00:32:12,420
That's what it looks like in price. That's the, the
480
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:17,610
executable price level you can trade on. Now, I'm going to
481
00:32:17,850 --> 00:32:23,400
ask you to let me go back to empty for just for the pattern
482
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,620
sake, but I wanted you to see how it can be shown on
483
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,920
tradingview. It's not just simply a, an empty four trick
484
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,520
pony. It's, it's there as well. But I want to go over to Mt
485
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,940
four because I'm a little bit more efficient with that
486
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,920
charting platform. And then we'll go into looking at the
487
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:47,580
example. Okay, so we're over Mt. Four, and it's kind of
488
00:32:47,580 --> 00:32:52,110
like, re define what we've already discussed. This is the
489
00:32:52,110 --> 00:32:57,390
old monthly high. Okay 117 14. And price was coming down
490
00:32:57,420 --> 00:33:01,080
away from higher levels, and we had a Short term low here.
491
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,960
And we had a little bit of a rally in there. And folks who
492
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:10,320
try to capture old lows or try to capture any advancement
493
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,960
higher. If they're lucky enough to get in and see a little
494
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,960
bit of profit. They obviously fall in love with it, they
495
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,830
marry the vein, the expression is and obviously there's
496
00:33:19,860 --> 00:33:22,260
their stock would be wrestling below that. So the market
497
00:33:22,260 --> 00:33:27,090
trades down into that 20 level institutional level, picks up
498
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,470
orders right in here. Okay, runs hits that and then rallies
499
00:33:31,470 --> 00:33:35,130
through breaking this short term structure high. When it
500
00:33:35,130 --> 00:33:38,280
does that we have a market structure break. We wait for a
501
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,690
retracement lower. Okay. Now the first time it does this,
502
00:33:43,620 --> 00:33:48,990
you're going to maybe lose the low risk buy for a market
503
00:33:48,990 --> 00:33:54,570
maker by model. The consolidation here, the runaway come
504
00:33:54,570 --> 00:33:58,020
back to the consolidation, distribution, smart money
505
00:33:58,020 --> 00:34:03,450
reversal. Low Risk bye re accumulation. That's where we're
506
00:34:03,450 --> 00:34:07,380
looking for the next area of accumulation. So this short
507
00:34:07,380 --> 00:34:11,310
term high being broken. Here, we made sure that this is a
508
00:34:11,310 --> 00:34:13,710
higher high than this one. So this is an intermediate term
509
00:34:13,710 --> 00:34:19,470
high. Okay. My old tutorials brought out concept I picked up
510
00:34:19,470 --> 00:34:23,280
from Larry Williams, which is my mentor. Back in the 90s. He
511
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,360
taught market structure and high that has two lower highs on
512
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,050
either side of it. It makes that pie in the middle, a
513
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:36,090
significant high as it nests out. It gives us a market
514
00:34:36,090 --> 00:34:40,590
structure model. Here, this high beam broken right there is
515
00:34:40,590 --> 00:34:43,980
much more convincing than the short term here without
516
00:34:43,980 --> 00:34:46,830
understanding everything I'm giving you here's an outline,
517
00:34:47,340 --> 00:34:51,120
or understanding the expectation of how orders are stacking
518
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,880
around higher timeframe key levels, and understanding
519
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,100
algorithmic price models because that's what I'm teaching
520
00:34:56,100 --> 00:34:59,730
here tonight. From a very basic approach. This is all stuff
521
00:34:59,730 --> 00:35:02,730
I taught In my free tutorials, sniper, and position trading
522
00:35:02,730 --> 00:35:07,230
concepts and all the other stuff in between. But this rally
523
00:35:07,230 --> 00:35:11,700
right in here, this impulse leg, right there is all that we
524
00:35:11,700 --> 00:35:19,380
would be looking for. So this move up, when price trades up
525
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,330
and creates the high what it's doing is it's making a more
526
00:35:24,750 --> 00:35:28,080
convincing run above this high. So it's a market structure
527
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,290
break on an intermediate term high. So it's much much more
528
00:35:31,290 --> 00:35:34,740
reliable. So the retracement on that it's going to be much
529
00:35:34,740 --> 00:35:37,620
more significant. So when we look at price moves, we want to
530
00:35:37,620 --> 00:35:40,260
look at the price move on the bodies of the candles. I
531
00:35:40,260 --> 00:35:42,900
taught this in my tutorials. The wicks are always going to
532
00:35:42,900 --> 00:35:46,080
be the thinnest price action. Okay, and if you look at
533
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:51,390
everyone's price across all different platforms and brokers,
534
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,320
the part that's always different that throws everyone off is
535
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,410
the Wix because the broker is allowed to have some measure
536
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:03,240
of flexibility. say that's the polite way of saying it,
537
00:36:03,570 --> 00:36:05,940
where they can spread price a little bit more. So you're
538
00:36:05,940 --> 00:36:08,400
already getting a derivative of price from an interbank feed
539
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:12,660
anyway, but the discrepancy between that and what you see at
540
00:36:12,660 --> 00:36:17,400
your broker is many times way off, okay? And you sign your
541
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,980
agreement to that when you set up your account, you're
542
00:36:20,010 --> 00:36:23,940
allowing that to occur. Okay, so you can cry about it. They
543
00:36:23,940 --> 00:36:25,800
did this to me, they did that to me, but you really gave
544
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,590
them permission. So it is what it is. Alright, so this rally
545
00:36:28,590 --> 00:36:30,450
up we're looking at, we're going to put on the bodies of
546
00:36:30,450 --> 00:36:36,210
candles. Up here, this is the highest body right there. This
547
00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:38,220
candle right there and we're going to look at that as the
548
00:36:38,220 --> 00:36:41,880
open to open is 117 99
549
00:36:44,010 --> 00:36:48,510
so that's where our fit will be dropped right there. Okay,
550
00:36:48,870 --> 00:36:52,410
well let go. So now what happens is price rallies through
551
00:36:52,470 --> 00:36:56,280
impulse leg up and it drops back down. Look how nicely it
552
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,460
gives another little bounce rate their trades back up
553
00:36:59,460 --> 00:37:03,030
higher. it spends all this time on a 15 minute timeframe,
554
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,720
this is going to chop traders with no patience up, they're
555
00:37:06,720 --> 00:37:09,180
gonna get scared every time it comes down. Or when it starts
556
00:37:09,180 --> 00:37:11,130
to rally like this, they jam their stop loss right on the
557
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,160
next this low here and then look at it does eventually comes
558
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,940
and hits it you have to give the price, freedom to trade
559
00:37:18,030 --> 00:37:20,460
from where you're trying to get in at to your stop, let it
560
00:37:20,460 --> 00:37:24,240
go to full stop. It's there for a reason to protect you. But
561
00:37:24,240 --> 00:37:27,030
if you don't give it room to breathe, you're never going to
562
00:37:27,030 --> 00:37:31,710
give these markets, the ample room it needs to gyrate and
563
00:37:31,710 --> 00:37:35,430
then expand towards your targets. So the same Fibonacci
564
00:37:35,430 --> 00:37:38,580
settings, okay, nothing's different here. When trades up to
565
00:37:38,580 --> 00:37:40,950
this price level right there or just below it, there's your
566
00:37:40,950 --> 00:37:44,640
first profit. Okay, so what if you're trying to get in at
567
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:49,680
70.5 or 62% trace level, this movement here you got to see
568
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:56,400
at least two of that. One, two, okay. First profit scale
569
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,780
off, put your stop to break even let it go. Price trades up
570
00:38:00,780 --> 00:38:04,740
to the first target. You scale something off their trades to
571
00:38:04,740 --> 00:38:07,170
this level here, you can scale something off there and trade
572
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:11,130
up to symmetrical price swing hits that. Okay. And then look
573
00:38:11,130 --> 00:38:14,100
at the reaction after that all the way back down. You think
574
00:38:14,100 --> 00:38:18,720
that's by happenstance? It's no coincidence? No, it's going
575
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:22,020
to an area of liquidity. We have a bearish order block here.
576
00:38:22,290 --> 00:38:25,620
overlaps at Target to really nice move there. But look at
577
00:38:25,620 --> 00:38:27,480
this short term high here. What do you think's resting above
578
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:31,140
that? Buy stops. Now, there's going to be some out there
579
00:38:31,140 --> 00:38:33,060
that don't understand what I'm teaching because they don't
580
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,580
see things from an institutional standpoint, you'd have no
581
00:38:35,580 --> 00:38:40,530
idea how to look at it like this. But there is trailed by
582
00:38:40,530 --> 00:38:43,350
stops that don't get trailed down here. Not everyone carries
583
00:38:43,350 --> 00:38:47,220
that model where they got to jam it up seven ticks above the
584
00:38:47,220 --> 00:38:50,490
recent high when they're bearish. That's what retail does.
585
00:38:51,510 --> 00:38:54,780
Longer term trending models. They have their stops farther
586
00:38:54,780 --> 00:38:57,390
back, okay. And this is one that we've been targeted, and
587
00:38:57,390 --> 00:39:00,780
here's another one as well. Okay. And it over. laughs with
588
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,140
the symmetrical price swing that we have on our fit, okay,
589
00:39:04,170 --> 00:39:07,200
which is a 100% measured move of whatever the impulse swing
590
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:11,670
is, this low to this body high is the same thing from that
591
00:39:11,700 --> 00:39:15,480
body's high all the up to this level, it's 100%. The same in
592
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,270
terms of pips and range, it's the same thing from this price
593
00:39:18,270 --> 00:39:23,340
point to here added to this, and you get that very, very
594
00:39:23,340 --> 00:39:29,190
precise, very, very precision based trading, it reaches for
595
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,180
the 20 level. Okay, you know, how much work there was around
596
00:39:33,180 --> 00:39:39,570
it near the 20, a lot of 20 2020. So, the market will gyrate
597
00:39:39,660 --> 00:39:44,130
and work around these levels here. Okay, this is one penny
598
00:39:44,130 --> 00:39:47,670
move in the euro. said, look at the sensitivity around the
599
00:39:47,670 --> 00:39:51,870
20 level. It trades up to and consolidate, consolidate a
600
00:39:51,870 --> 00:39:53,670
little bit and get another optimal trade entry right in
601
00:39:53,670 --> 00:39:58,500
here. From this impulse like up, rallies again, what's it
602
00:39:58,500 --> 00:40:01,590
doing it near the 50 level It's not exactly 50. Michael
603
00:40:01,590 --> 00:40:05,940
Exactly. Because at these levels at 50, there's orders that
604
00:40:05,940 --> 00:40:10,380
are just above it, or just below it, or at the 50 level,
605
00:40:10,770 --> 00:40:13,980
just like we have at the 20 level, it can be at the level,
606
00:40:14,550 --> 00:40:17,730
above the 20, a little bit or below it, everyone's going to
607
00:40:17,730 --> 00:40:21,210
have orders that are close proximity to these specific
608
00:40:21,210 --> 00:40:24,600
levels. That's why the algorithm reaches for them. Now,
609
00:40:24,630 --> 00:40:27,420
institutions like these levels, from a generic standpoint,
610
00:40:27,420 --> 00:40:29,460
because it makes it easy for them to price their models and
611
00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:35,610
we had the old high at 117 14. That's an odd number. So look
612
00:40:35,610 --> 00:40:38,460
for the manipulation here, stop running a breaking Mark
613
00:40:38,460 --> 00:40:42,540
structure rally. When we have that, anticipate some measure
614
00:40:42,540 --> 00:40:45,210
of buying, and then wait for the intermediate term, highly
615
00:40:45,210 --> 00:40:47,700
broken here, you're going to lose all this. There's nothing
616
00:40:47,700 --> 00:40:49,950
wrong with that. But if you want high probability, and you
617
00:40:49,950 --> 00:40:52,230
want confirmation, and I'm holding my fingers up in
618
00:40:52,230 --> 00:40:54,780
quotations, you want confirmation. This is what it looks
619
00:40:54,780 --> 00:40:57,360
like. Yeah, I have an intermediate term high broken with
620
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,630
market structure, and then do everything listed here. You
621
00:41:00,630 --> 00:41:04,530
have a complete trading model targets, how to know when to
622
00:41:04,530 --> 00:41:08,610
do it using a higher timeframe level, what to reach for?
623
00:41:09,270 --> 00:41:12,870
While you have to look for a high to run through, okay, so
624
00:41:12,870 --> 00:41:15,210
if you're buying low, you want to sell high high, where do
625
00:41:15,210 --> 00:41:18,600
you sell high, just find it on high somewhere, okay, and do
626
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:22,140
it in that scope that as we outlined here, this is one
627
00:41:22,140 --> 00:41:24,420
example you see any other examples of these going forward,
628
00:41:24,420 --> 00:41:28,080
but this is this one that is available to you and you can
629
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,770
see it in your own charts and study and seek it in other
630
00:41:31,770 --> 00:41:35,280
pairs throughout this week that we've had and find similar
631
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,820
examples of this even looking for for shorts as well. But
632
00:41:38,820 --> 00:41:42,180
this is going to complete this first introduction to optimal
633
00:41:42,180 --> 00:41:45,030
trade entries as your first time here. This is what it looks
634
00:41:45,030 --> 00:41:48,240
like. Coming back down into it here. That's the buy. Okay,
635
00:41:48,330 --> 00:41:52,170
you can buy here or here and look at the dynamic real
636
00:41:52,260 --> 00:41:55,410
reaction. Now with this like it is on the chart. I'm going
637
00:41:55,410 --> 00:41:57,930
to drop down into an hourly chart and you'll see why I like
638
00:41:57,930 --> 00:42:00,960
the hourly setups because they're much cleaner. A lot of
639
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,500
noise when these lower timeframes, but same impulse like
640
00:42:04,500 --> 00:42:09,270
here, and it comes right down, hits beautifully here, the
641
00:42:09,270 --> 00:42:11,610
body's respecting the candle. I'm sorry, the body's
642
00:42:11,610 --> 00:42:14,010
respecting the fifth level, not that the third level is
643
00:42:14,010 --> 00:42:17,190
giving them isn't a magic in a fib. It's just giving a
644
00:42:17,190 --> 00:42:23,160
specific framework for us from the best perspective we can
645
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:28,050
have not being on an interbank level institution where you
646
00:42:28,050 --> 00:42:29,880
can actually see because you're not seeing these orders,
647
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,820
folks, you're not you know, that's why I laugh when folks
648
00:42:32,820 --> 00:42:37,050
will say, you know, I'm looking at, you know, well, I said,
649
00:42:37,050 --> 00:42:38,580
I wasn't gonna do those types of things. I'm not going to
650
00:42:38,670 --> 00:42:41,190
belittle anybody else. Because if you're making money doing
651
00:42:41,190 --> 00:42:43,650
what you're doing, you know, God bless you. That's why I
652
00:42:43,650 --> 00:42:46,830
like forex, because I understand the animal and the things
653
00:42:46,830 --> 00:42:49,980
that everyone hopes they can see in the little gimmicks and
654
00:42:49,980 --> 00:42:53,280
their indicators. That's what makes the opportunity because
655
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:58,620
it's there for us to take because it's giving a sentiment
656
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:04,140
it's providing an In molding, a traders mind or a trader
657
00:43:04,140 --> 00:43:07,050
sentiment about a market? And what are they going to do?
658
00:43:08,100 --> 00:43:11,160
instinctively, they're going to react. And I don't react, I
659
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:13,860
anticipate. And that's what we're going to teach using just
660
00:43:13,890 --> 00:43:16,770
one simple pattern, optimal trade entry. And you'll see that
661
00:43:16,770 --> 00:43:19,290
that's all you really need. You've never needed anything
662
00:43:19,290 --> 00:43:24,390
more than that. But I asked back then you things 2012 if you
663
00:43:24,390 --> 00:43:29,160
want to go deeper, and 660 some of you went really deep
664
00:43:29,190 --> 00:43:31,890
night they know everything I know. I'm not teaching another
665
00:43:31,890 --> 00:43:34,740
mentor ship, to please don't ask me people are still asking.
666
00:43:35,220 --> 00:43:38,490
That's going to be the first introduction to it. Obviously,
667
00:43:38,490 --> 00:43:42,210
it'll be much more refined and structured as we go forward.
668
00:43:42,210 --> 00:43:45,720
But this is certainly good enough. And it really gives you
669
00:43:45,720 --> 00:43:49,830
an encapsulated view of an entire breakdown from an
670
00:43:49,830 --> 00:43:53,670
institutional price move, how institutions work inside the
671
00:43:53,670 --> 00:43:57,540
model of how price is being delivered, and why it should go,
672
00:43:57,540 --> 00:43:59,730
where it's going and what the setup look like and where they
673
00:43:59,730 --> 00:44:03,510
occur. But you have to understand how the algorithm that
674
00:44:03,510 --> 00:44:07,740
makes the price engines drive up and down. They dropped down
675
00:44:07,740 --> 00:44:11,580
to allow traders to pick up orders at very, very, very low
676
00:44:11,580 --> 00:44:16,680
pricing. And then it rallies up to allow traders to get out
677
00:44:16,710 --> 00:44:20,370
at very high prices. So in between there, there's
678
00:44:20,370 --> 00:44:23,400
opportunities to trade. You don't see them because you're
679
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:27,480
not trained or taught from any retail perspective. But I
680
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:31,140
just gave you here is exactly how bank level traders trade
681
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,320
and anybody that says different simply doesn't know anything
682
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,900
for what you're talking about. So until next time, wish good
683
00:44:36,900 --> 00:44:39,180
luck, good trading, and I'll catch up with you next week.