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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-14 05:38
From version 59.2
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-01-14 05:38
Change comment: Renamed from xwiki:Forex.The-Inner-Circle-Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome
To version 47.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-07-06 20:35
Change comment: Uploaded new attachment "Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.34.19.jpg", version {1}

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1 -Forex.The-Inner-Circle-Trader.WebHome
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17 17  ** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 18  ** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 19  ** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 -* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
20 +* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 21  * The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 22  * Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 23  ** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
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26 26  ** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 27  ** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 28  ** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 -** 0.705 - {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} 70.5%
29 +** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 30  ** 0.79 - 79%
31 31  ** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 -* {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
32 +* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 33  * First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 34  * Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 35  * Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
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45 45  ** institutional levels
46 46  ** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
47 47  ** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
48 -** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}.
49 -** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}.
48 +** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
49 +** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
50 50  ** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 51  
52 52  * when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
53 53  
54 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
54 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
55 55  
56 56  == {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction - AUDUSD ==
57 57  
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73 73  Mark out the previous days high and low.
74 74  \\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
75 75  
76 -* The {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
76 +* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
77 77  [[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
78 -The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern
78 +The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
79 79  
80 80  * The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
81 81  * Trade
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102 102  ** where do you take partials
103 103  ** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
104 104  
105 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
105 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
106 106  
107 107  == {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
108 108  
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116 116  
117 117  * Dropping into the 5m chart:
118 118  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
119 -\\Where do you think the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
119 +\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
120 120  
121 121  * Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
122 122  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
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124 124  * Trading View chart, 15m
125 125  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.10.10.png]]
126 126  
127 -* On the above chart is a second {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} occurring just after the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} period opening
127 +* On the above chart is a second OTE occurring just after the OTE period opening
128 128  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.19.10.png]]
129 -\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} opportunity crosses the weekend.  
129 +\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The OTE opportunity crosses the weekend.  
130 130  
131 131  * 5m chart view
132 132  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.22.17.png||queryString="width=591&height=819" height="819" width="591"]]
133 -\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} pattern.
133 +\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the OTE pattern.
134 134  
135 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
135 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
136 136  
137 137  == {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 - S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (June 2020) ==
138 138  
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154 154  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.28.25.jpg]]
155 155  \\The "big figure" is 2900.  Price has traded down into that during the NY session.  Whenever a big figure is swept, either down into, or up into, it generally creates a tradeable bounce or retracement, even if it is very short lived. 
156 156  
157 -* Focus on the NY session time to find the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}}
157 +* Focus on the NY session time to find the OTE
158 158  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.31.40.jpg||height="417" width="313"]]
159 159  
160 -* {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} marked
160 +* OTE marked
161 161  [[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.34.05.jpg||height="850" width="775"]]
162 162  
163 163  * and here is how it played out
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165 165  \\In this example, the market tends to want to gravitate towards the old high because the market is bullish, and will catch out the market short sellers.
166 166  
167 167  
168 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
168 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
169 169  
170 170  == {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 - GBPUSD ==
171 171  
172 -* 1H chart
173 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.22.04.jpg]]
174 -
175 -* Marked up using "support and resistance" paradigm. Note that this is a retail trading mindset and it is wrong.
176 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.31.28.jpg]]
177 -\\Again.  Wrong.
178 -
179 -* ICT Markup - [Market Efficiency Paradigm] (link to definition later)
180 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.34.19.jpg]]
181 -\\It's basically the narrative of why price goes where it does and why it reacts the way it does when it gets there and where it is reaching to next.  The ICT Bearish Breaker cuts to the whole narrative immediately. 
182 -\\Why?  You want to look at price and look for areas where they run an old high because above that is going to be buy stops.  And this is buy side liquidity.  This could be in the form of buy stops for new long entries, or stops protecting existing shorts.
183 -\\The big candle to the right runs through that zone to gather the liquidity.  Also, ICT calls this candle pattern a "Judus Swing" because it's a fake move because it appears to signal a bullish move.
184 -\\When we see these sharp runs that that run previous highs/lows, it's highly suspect to ICT.  If we get back down below the lowest down candle (ICT Bearish Breaker), breaking that low (which it does in the 3-6am bull candles above), the narrative changes to Bearish.
185 -\\So what we do is go to that Breaker, draw the line out in time and then you'll be able to see the real turning point, or the real support/resistance level if you like.  Look at the 7-9am candles on the right where it touches the 1.2371 line.
186 -
187 -* This provides the narrative behind finding and {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} with this structure in place.  It can occur in a trendless market environment, and doesn't have to have a bullish or bearish trend on the daily chart, so go into the lower timeframes.
188 -
189 -* 1h chart marked up showing the previous days low as our highlighted candle is a ICT Bearish Breaker and tends to indicate that we are going for new lows and it is likely we will target the previous days low.
190 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.59.43.jpg]]
191 -\\The new ICT bearish breaker is highlighted in the pink box.
192 -
193 -* 5m with the NY Session highlighted
194 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.01.46.jpg]]
195 -\\
196 -* and here is the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} Fib marked.
197 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.04.42.jpg]]
198 -\\stops will be above the 1.0 point
199 -\\We see the high, down to the low, and then the price returning to the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} where we can fill our order.  Our -2 level is the 1.23 big level and the institutions reaching for the old lows and the liquidity that can be found there.
200 -
201 -* Also note, that we have not yet taken our previous days lows, so there is a second possible {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} entry.  The price starts to retrace at at 11am - which is just outside of our session window, but still acceptable.  So, place the fib and see if this retracement suggests a trade
202 -
203 -* Fib placed
204 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.17.16.jpg]]
205 -\\We see the high, low, the retracement into the 62 {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} region and we'll be targeting the previous days low with a short.  The stop would be above the high
206 -\\Our targets: 
207 -- 1.2282 - 1.2283 for our 0.5 level
208 -- 1.2265 for our 1.0 level, or we could target the 1.227 level as a more likely target rather than getting a full fib.
209 -\\We're rounding down our numbers and being content with not being too greedy so we don't make a winning trade a losing one.
210 -
211 -* Results:
212 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.25.06.jpg]]
213 -\\\\0.5 taken.  1.0 taken.
214 -
172 +* example
215 215  
216 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
174 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
217 217  
218 218  == {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
219 219  
220 220  * example
221 221  
222 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
180 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
223 223  
224 224  == {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
225 225  
226 226  * example
227 227  
228 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
186 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
229 229  
230 230  == {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
231 231  
232 232  * example
233 233  
234 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
192 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
235 235  
236 236  == {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
237 237  
238 238  * example
239 239  
240 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
198 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
241 241  
242 242  == {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
243 243  
244 244  * example
245 245  
246 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
204 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
247 247  
248 248  == {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
249 249  
250 250  * example
251 251  
252 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
210 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
253 253  
254 254  == {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
255 255  
256 256  * example
257 257  
258 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
216 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
259 259  
260 260  == {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
261 261  
262 262  * example
263 263  
264 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
222 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
265 265  
266 266  == {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
267 267  
268 268  * example
269 269  
270 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
228 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
271 271  
272 272  == {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
273 273  
274 274  * example
275 275  
276 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
234 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
277 277  
278 278  == {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
279 279  
280 280  * example
281 281  
282 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
240 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
283 283  
284 284  == {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
285 285  
286 286  * example
287 287  
288 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
246 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
289 289  
290 290  == {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
291 291  
292 292  * example
293 293  
294 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
252 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
295 295  
296 296  == {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
297 297  
298 298  * example
299 299  
300 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
258 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
301 301  
302 302  == {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
303 303  
304 304  * example
305 305  
306 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
264 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
307 307  
308 308  == {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
309 309  
310 310  * example
311 311  
312 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:WebHome]]] ======
270 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
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