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From version 31.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-07-06 18:10
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edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-06-27 19:03
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1 1  {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Quick Links**"}}
2 -{{toc start="2" depth="5" numbered="true"/}}
2 +{{toc start="2"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
5 +== Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
6 6  
7 -* one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 -* trading plan needs to be simple:
9 -** what's your risk model
10 -** how to frame that?
11 -** what makes your entry
12 -** what gives you indicators of bullish/bearish market?
13 -** how do you execute the trade?
14 -** how do you manage the trade?
15 -** where do you take profits?
16 -* what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 -** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 -** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 -** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 -* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 -* The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 -* Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 -** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
24 -** -0.62 - TP2
25 -** -0.27 - TP1
26 -** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 -** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 -** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 -** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 -** 0.79 - 79%
31 -** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 -* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 -* First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 -* Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 -* Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
36 -* Place the fibs on the body of the candles
37 -* Market structure - example given:
38 -- monthly view
39 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.11.56.png]]
40 -\\- daily view
41 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 -\\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 -
44 -* Note the following:
45 -** institutional levels
46 -** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
47 -** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
48 -** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
49 -** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
50 -** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 -
52 -* when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
7 +== Introduction ==
53 53  
54 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
9 +== Example 1 ==
55 55  
56 -== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
11 +== Example 2 ==
57 57  
58 -* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
59 -* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
60 -* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
61 -* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
62 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
63 -
64 -* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
65 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
66 -
67 -* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
68 -* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
69 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
70 -We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
71 -
72 -* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
73 -Mark out the previous days high and low.
74 -\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
75 -
76 -* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
77 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
78 -The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
79 -
80 -* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
81 -* Trade
82 -** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
83 -** SL will be set below the 100 level.
84 -** Profit taking
85 -*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
86 -*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
87 -*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
88 -*** take next at -1.5
89 -*** take next at -2.0
90 -*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
91 -*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
92 -*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
93 -*** get out by the last scaling
94 -* Fib settings for Trading View:
95 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
96 -We could also at -1.5 level
97 -
98 -* key things learned
99 -** when to move a stop
100 -** what entry price to look for
101 -** where stop loss should be
102 -** where do you take partials
103 -** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
13 +== Example 3 ==
104 104  
105 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
15 +== Example 4 ==
106 106  
107 -== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
17 +== Example 5 ==
108 108  
109 -* Daily Chart
110 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.38.28.png]]
111 -\\fib drawn from the swing low, to the swing high
112 -
113 -* previous days high (2nd last candle) broke the high from the day before that.  This means we could potentially see a turn, or an expansion to the upside
114 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.40.40.png]]
115 -\\Our high is 106.65(7)
116 -
117 -* Dropping into the 5m chart:
118 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
119 -\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
120 -
121 -* Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
122 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
19 +== Example 6 ==
123 123  
124 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
21 +== Example 7 ==
125 125  
126 -== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
23 +== Example 8 ==
127 127  
128 -* example
25 +== Example 9 ==
129 129  
130 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
27 +== Example 10 ==
131 131  
132 -== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
29 +== Example 11 ==
133 133  
134 -* example
31 +== Example 12 ==
135 135  
136 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
33 +== Example 13 ==
137 137  
138 -== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
35 +== Example 14 ==
139 139  
140 -* example
37 +== Example 15 ==
141 141  
142 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
39 +== Example 16 ==
143 143  
144 -== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
41 +== Example 17 ==
145 145  
146 -* example
43 +== Example 18 ==
147 147  
148 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
45 +== Example 19 ==
149 149  
150 -== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
151 -
152 -* example
153 -
154 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
155 -
156 -== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
157 -
158 -* example
159 -
160 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
161 -
162 -== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
163 -
164 -* example
165 -
166 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
167 -
168 -== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
169 -
170 -* example
171 -
172 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
173 -
174 -== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
175 -
176 -* example
177 -
178 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
179 -
180 -== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
181 -
182 -* example
183 -
184 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
185 -
186 -== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
187 -
188 -* example
189 -
190 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
191 -
192 -== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
193 -
194 -* example
195 -
196 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
197 -
198 -== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
199 -
200 -* example
201 -
202 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
203 -
204 -== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
205 -
206 -* example
207 -
208 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
209 -
210 -== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
211 -
212 -* example
213 -
214 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
215 -
216 -== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
217 -
218 -* example
219 -
220 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
221 -
222 -== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
223 -
224 -* example
225 -
226 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
227 -
228 -== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
229 -
230 -* example
231 -
232 -====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
47 +== Example 20 ==
48 +
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