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edited by Drunk Monkey
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To version 21.2
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-06-29 20:17
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2 2  {{toc start="2"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -== Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
5 +== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
6 6  
7 -== Introduction ==
7 +* one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 +* trading plan needs to be simple:
9 +** what's your risk model
10 +** how to frame that?
11 +** what makes your entry
12 +** what gives you indicators of bullish/bearish market?
13 +** how do you execute the trade?
14 +** how do you manage the trade?
15 +** where do you take profits?
16 +* what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 +** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 +** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 +** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 +* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 +* The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 +* Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 +** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
24 +** -0.62 - TP2
25 +** -0.27 - TP1
26 +** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 +** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 +** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 +** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 +** 0.79 - 79%
31 +** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 +* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 +* First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 +* Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 +* Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
36 +* Place the fibs on the body of the candles
37 +* Market structure - example given:
38 +- monthly view
39 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.11.56.png]]
40 +\\- daily view
41 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 +\\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 +* Note the following:
44 +** institutional levels
45 +** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
46 +** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
47 +** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
48 +** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
49 +** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
50 +* when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
8 8  
9 -== Example 1 ==
52 +== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
10 10  
11 -== Example 2 ==
54 +* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
55 +* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
56 +* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
57 +* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
58 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
59 +
60 +* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
61 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
62 +
63 +* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
64 +* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
65 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
66 +We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
67 +
68 +* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
69 +Mark out the previous days high and low.
70 +\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
71 +
72 +* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
73 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
74 +The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
75 +
76 +* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
77 +* Trade
78 +** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
79 +** SL will be set below the 100 level.
80 +** Profit taking
81 +*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
82 +*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
83 +*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
84 +*** take next at -1.5
85 +*** take next at -2.0
86 +*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
87 +*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
88 +*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
89 +*** get out by the last scaling
90 +* Fib settings for Trading View:
91 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
92 +We could also at -1.5 level
93 +
94 +* key things learned
95 +** when to move a stop
96 +** what entry price to look for
97 +** where stop loss should be
98 +** where do you take partials
99 +** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
12 12  
13 -== Example 3 ==
101 +== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 ==
14 14  
15 -== Example 4 ==
103 +* example
16 16  
17 -== Example 5 ==
105 +== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
18 18  
19 -== Example 6 ==
107 +* example
20 20  
21 -== Example 7 ==
109 +== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
22 22  
23 -== Example 8 ==
111 +* example
24 24  
25 -== Example 9 ==
113 +== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
26 26  
27 -== Example 10 ==
115 +* example
28 28  
29 -== Example 11 ==
117 +== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
30 30  
31 -== Example 12 ==
119 +* example
32 32  
33 -== Example 13 ==
121 +== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
34 34  
35 -== Example 14 ==
123 +* example
36 36  
37 -== Example 15 ==
125 +== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
38 38  
39 -== Example 16 ==
127 +* example
40 40  
41 -== Example 17 ==
129 +== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
42 42  
43 -== Example 18 ==
131 +* example
44 44  
45 -== Example 19 ==
133 +== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
46 46  
47 -== Example 20 ==
48 -
135 +* example
136 +
137 +== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
138 +
139 +* example
140 +
141 +== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
142 +
143 +* example
144 +
145 +== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
146 +
147 +* example
148 +
149 +== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
150 +
151 +* example
152 +
153 +== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
154 +
155 +* example
156 +
157 +== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
158 +
159 +* example
160 +
161 +== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
162 +
163 +* example
164 +
165 +== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
166 +
167 +* example
168 +
169 +== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
170 +
171 +* example
172 +
173 +== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
174 +
175 +* example
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