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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-14 05:38
From version 28.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
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To version 1.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-06-27 18:37
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1 -{{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Quick Links**"}}
2 -{{toc start="2"/}}
3 -{{/box}}
4 -
5 -== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
6 -
7 -* one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 -* trading plan needs to be simple:
9 -** what's your risk model
10 -** how to frame that?
11 -** what makes your entry
12 -** what gives you indicators of bullish/bearish market?
13 -** how do you execute the trade?
14 -** how do you manage the trade?
15 -** where do you take profits?
16 -* what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 -** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 -** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 -** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 -* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 -* The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 -* Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 -** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
24 -** -0.62 - TP2
25 -** -0.27 - TP1
26 -** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 -** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 -** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 -** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 -** 0.79 - 79%
31 -** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 -* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 -* First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 -* Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 -* Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
36 -* Place the fibs on the body of the candles
37 -* Market structure - example given:
38 -- monthly view
39 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.11.56.png]]
40 -\\- daily view
41 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 -\\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 -
44 -* Note the following:
45 -** institutional levels
46 -** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
47 -** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
48 -** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
49 -** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
50 -** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 -
52 -* when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
53 -
54 -== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
55 -
56 -* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
57 -* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
58 -* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
59 -* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
60 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
61 -
62 -* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
63 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
64 -
65 -* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
66 -* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
67 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
68 -We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
69 -
70 -* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
71 -Mark out the previous days high and low.
72 -\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
73 -
74 -* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
75 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
76 -The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
77 -
78 -* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
79 -* Trade
80 -** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
81 -** SL will be set below the 100 level.
82 -** Profit taking
83 -*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
84 -*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
85 -*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
86 -*** take next at -1.5
87 -*** take next at -2.0
88 -*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
89 -*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
90 -*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
91 -*** get out by the last scaling
92 -* Fib settings for Trading View:
93 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
94 -We could also at -1.5 level
95 -
96 -* key things learned
97 -** when to move a stop
98 -** what entry price to look for
99 -** where stop loss should be
100 -** where do you take partials
101 -** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
102 -
103 -== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
104 -
105 -* Daily Chart
106 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.38.28.png]]
107 -\\fib drawn from the swing low, to the swing high
108 -
109 -* previous days high (2nd last candle) broke the high from the day before that.  This means we could potentially see a turn, or an expansion to the upside
110 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.40.40.png]]
111 -\\Our high is 106.65(7)
112 -
113 -* Dropping into the 5m chart:
114 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
115 -\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
116 -
117 -* Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
118 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
119 -
120 -== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
121 -
122 -* example
123 -
124 -== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
125 -
126 -* example
127 -
128 -== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
129 -
130 -* example
131 -
132 -== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
133 -
134 -* example
135 -
136 -== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
137 -
138 -* example
139 -
140 -== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
141 -
142 -* example
143 -
144 -== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
145 -
146 -* example
147 -
148 -== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
149 -
150 -* example
151 -
152 -== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
153 -
154 -* example
155 -
156 -== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
157 -
158 -* example
159 -
160 -== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
161 -
162 -* example
163 -
164 -== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
165 -
166 -* example
167 -
168 -== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
169 -
170 -* example
171 -
172 -== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
173 -
174 -* example
175 -
176 -== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
177 -
178 -* example
179 -
180 -== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
181 -
182 -* example
183 -
184 -== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
185 -
186 -* example
187 -
188 -== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
189 -
190 -* example
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