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From version 22.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
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To version 54.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-09-08 15:44
Change comment: Renamed from xwiki:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome

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1 1  {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Quick Links**"}}
2 -{{toc start="2"/}}
2 +{{toc start="2" depth="5" numbered="true"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 5  == {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
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40 40  \\- daily view
41 41  [[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 42  \\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 +
43 43  * Note the following:
44 44  ** institutional levels
45 45  ** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
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47 47  ** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
48 48  ** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
49 49  ** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 +
50 50  * when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
51 51  
52 -== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
54 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
53 53  
56 +== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction - AUDUSD ==
57 +
54 54  * how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
55 55  * study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
56 56  * the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
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98 98  ** where do you take partials
99 99  ** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
100 100  
101 -== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 ==
105 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
102 102  
103 -* example
107 +== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
104 104  
105 -== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
109 +* Daily Chart
110 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.38.28.png]]
111 +\\fib drawn from the swing low, to the swing high
112 +
113 +* previous days high (2nd last candle) broke the high from the day before that.  This means we could potentially see a turn, or an expansion to the upside
114 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.40.40.png]]
115 +\\Our high is 106.65(7)
116 +
117 +* Dropping into the 5m chart:
118 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
119 +\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
120 +
121 +* Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
122 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
123 +
124 +* Trading View chart, 15m
125 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.10.10.png]]
126 +
127 +* On the above chart is a second OTE occurring just after the OTE period opening
128 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.19.10.png]]
129 +\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The OTE opportunity crosses the weekend.  
130 +
131 +* 5m chart view
132 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.22.17.png||queryString="width=591&height=819" height="819" width="591"]]
133 +\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the OTE pattern.
106 106  
107 -* example
135 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
108 108  
109 -== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
137 +== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 - S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (June 2020) ==
110 110  
111 -* example
139 +* Daily Chart
140 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.43.11.jpg]]
141 +
142 +* currently inside of an OTE 
143 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.46.32.jpg||height="696" width="687"]]
144 +\\The fib provides a framework - old low, old high, retracement back to the 79 level.  On the daily chart, the momentum is likely to go higher.  It could be reaching for the old high, it could break through, or it could fail.  It doesn't matter.
145 +\\What we do care is that it is likely to run the previous day's high.
146 +
147 +* Previous day's high marked
148 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.53.30.jpg||height="167" width="848"]]
149 +
150 +* 5m chart
151 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.24.45.jpg]]
152 +
153 +* Marked up
154 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.28.25.jpg]]
155 +\\The "big figure" is 2900.  Price has traded down into that during the NY session.  Whenever a big figure is swept, either down into, or up into, it generally creates a tradeable bounce or retracement, even if it is very short lived. 
156 +
157 +* Focus on the NY session time to find the OTE
158 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.31.40.jpg||height="417" width="313"]]
159 +
160 +* OTE marked
161 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.34.05.jpg||height="850" width="775"]]
162 +
163 +* and here is how it played out
164 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.36.45.jpg]]
165 +\\In this example, the market tends to want to gravitate towards the old high because the market is bullish, and will catch out the market short sellers.
166 +
112 112  
168 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
169 +
170 +== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 - GBPUSD ==
171 +
172 +* 1H chart
173 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.22.04.jpg]]
174 +
175 +* Marked up using "support and resistance" paradigm. Note that this is a retail trading mindset and it is wrong.
176 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.31.28.jpg]]
177 +\\Again.  Wrong.
178 +
179 +* ICT Markup - [Market Efficiency Paradigm] (link to definition later)
180 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.34.19.jpg]]
181 +\\It's basically the narrative of why price goes where it does and why it reacts the way it does when it gets there and where it is reaching to next.  The ICT Bearish Breaker cuts to the whole narrative immediately. 
182 +\\Why?  You want to look at price and look for areas where they run an old high because above that is going to be buy stops.  And this is buy side liquidity.  This could be in the form of buy stops for new long entries, or stops protecting existing shorts.
183 +\\The big candle to the right runs through that zone to gather the liquidity.  Also, ICT calls this candle pattern a "Judus Swing" because it's a fake move because it appears to signal a bullish move.
184 +\\When we see these sharp runs that that run previous highs/lows, it's highly suspect to ICT.  If we get back down below the lowest down candle (ICT Bearish Breaker), breaking that low (which it does in the 3-6am bull candles above), the narrative changes to Bearish.
185 +\\So what we do is go to that Breaker, draw the line out in time and then you'll be able to see the real turning point, or the real support/resistance level if you like.  Look at the 7-9am candles on the right where it touches the 1.2371 line.
186 +
187 +* This provides the narrative behind finding and OTE with this structure in place.  It can occur in a trendless market environment, and doesn't have to have a bullish or bearish trend on the daily chart, so go into the lower timeframes.
188 +
189 +* 1h chart marked up showing the previous days low as our highlighted candle is a ICT Bearish Breaker and tends to indicate that we are going for new lows and it is likely we will target the previous days low.
190 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.59.43.jpg]]
191 +\\The new ICT bearish breaker is highlighted in the pink box.
192 +
193 +* 5m with the NY Session highlighted
194 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.01.46.jpg]]
195 +\\
196 +* and here is the OTE Fib marked.
197 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.04.42.jpg]]
198 +\\stops will be above the 1.0 point
199 +\\We see the high, down to the low, and then the price returning to the OTE where we can fill our order.  Our -2 level is the 1.23 big level and the institutions reaching for the old lows and the liquidity that can be found there.
200 +
201 +* Also note, that we have not yet taken our previous days lows, so there is a second possible OTE entry.  The price starts to retrace at at 11am - which is just outside of our session window, but still acceptable.  So, place the fib and see if this retracement suggests a trade
202 +
203 +* Fib placed
204 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.17.16.jpg]]
205 +\\We see the high, low, the retracement into the 62 OTE region and we'll be targeting the previous days low with a short.  The stop would be above the high
206 +\\Our targets: 
207 +- 1.2282 - 1.2283 for our 0.5 level
208 +- 1.2265 for our 1.0 level, or we could target the 1.227 level as a more likely target rather than getting a full fib.
209 +\\We're rounding down our numbers and being content with not being too greedy so we don't make a winning trade a losing one.
210 +
211 +* Results:
212 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.25.06.jpg]]
213 +\\\\0.5 taken.  1.0 taken.
214 +
215 +
216 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
217 +
113 113  == {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
114 114  
115 115  * example
116 116  
222 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
223 +
117 117  == {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
118 118  
119 119  * example
120 120  
228 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
229 +
121 121  == {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
122 122  
123 123  * example
124 124  
234 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
235 +
125 125  == {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
126 126  
127 127  * example
128 128  
240 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
241 +
129 129  == {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
130 130  
131 131  * example
132 132  
246 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
247 +
133 133  == {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
134 134  
135 135  * example
136 136  
252 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
253 +
137 137  == {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
138 138  
139 139  * example
140 140  
258 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
259 +
141 141  == {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
142 142  
143 143  * example
144 144  
264 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
265 +
145 145  == {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
146 146  
147 147  * example
148 148  
270 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
271 +
149 149  == {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
150 150  
151 151  * example
152 152  
276 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
277 +
153 153  == {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
154 154  
155 155  * example
156 156  
282 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
283 +
157 157  == {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
158 158  
159 159  * example
160 160  
288 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
289 +
161 161  == {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
162 162  
163 163  * example
164 164  
294 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
295 +
165 165  == {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
166 166  
167 167  * example
168 168  
300 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
301 +
169 169  == {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
170 170  
171 171  * example
172 172  
306 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
307 +
173 173  == {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
174 174  
175 175  * example
311 +
312 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:]]] ======
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