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From version 21.2
edited by Drunk Monkey
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To version 3.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-06-27 19:03
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2 2  {{toc start="2"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
5 +== Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
6 6  
7 -* one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 -* trading plan needs to be simple:
9 -** what's your risk model
10 -** how to frame that?
11 -** what makes your entry
12 -** what gives you indicators of bullish/bearish market?
13 -** how do you execute the trade?
14 -** how do you manage the trade?
15 -** where do you take profits?
16 -* what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 -** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 -** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 -** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 -* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 -* The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 -* Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 -** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
24 -** -0.62 - TP2
25 -** -0.27 - TP1
26 -** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 -** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 -** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 -** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 -** 0.79 - 79%
31 -** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 -* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 -* First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 -* Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 -* Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
36 -* Place the fibs on the body of the candles
37 -* Market structure - example given:
38 -- monthly view
39 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.11.56.png]]
40 -\\- daily view
41 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 -\\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 -* Note the following:
44 -** institutional levels
45 -** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
46 -** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
47 -** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
48 -** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
49 -** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
50 -* when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
7 +== Introduction ==
51 51  
52 -== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
9 +== Example 1 ==
53 53  
54 -* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
55 -* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
56 -* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
57 -* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
58 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
59 -
60 -* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
61 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
62 -
63 -* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
64 -* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
65 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
66 -We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
67 -
68 -* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
69 -Mark out the previous days high and low.
70 -\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
71 -
72 -* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
73 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
74 -The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
75 -
76 -* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
77 -* Trade
78 -** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
79 -** SL will be set below the 100 level.
80 -** Profit taking
81 -*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
82 -*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
83 -*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
84 -*** take next at -1.5
85 -*** take next at -2.0
86 -*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
87 -*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
88 -*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
89 -*** get out by the last scaling
90 -* Fib settings for Trading View:
91 -[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
92 -We could also at -1.5 level
93 -
94 -* key things learned
95 -** when to move a stop
96 -** what entry price to look for
97 -** where stop loss should be
98 -** where do you take partials
99 -** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
11 +== Example 2 ==
100 100  
101 -== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 ==
13 +== Example 3 ==
102 102  
103 -* example
15 +== Example 4 ==
104 104  
105 -== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
17 +== Example 5 ==
106 106  
107 -* example
19 +== Example 6 ==
108 108  
109 -== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
21 +== Example 7 ==
110 110  
111 -* example
23 +== Example 8 ==
112 112  
113 -== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
25 +== Example 9 ==
114 114  
115 -* example
27 +== Example 10 ==
116 116  
117 -== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
29 +== Example 11 ==
118 118  
119 -* example
31 +== Example 12 ==
120 120  
121 -== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
33 +== Example 13 ==
122 122  
123 -* example
35 +== Example 14 ==
124 124  
125 -== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
37 +== Example 15 ==
126 126  
127 -* example
39 +== Example 16 ==
128 128  
129 -== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
41 +== Example 17 ==
130 130  
131 -* example
43 +== Example 18 ==
132 132  
133 -== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
45 +== Example 19 ==
134 134  
135 -* example
136 -
137 -== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
138 -
139 -* example
140 -
141 -== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
142 -
143 -* example
144 -
145 -== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
146 -
147 -* example
148 -
149 -== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
150 -
151 -* example
152 -
153 -== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
154 -
155 -* example
156 -
157 -== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
158 -
159 -* example
160 -
161 -== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
162 -
163 -* example
164 -
165 -== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
166 -
167 -* example
168 -
169 -== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
170 -
171 -* example
172 -
173 -== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
174 -
175 -* example
47 +== Example 20 ==
48 +
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