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edited by Drunk Monkey
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edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-07-06 17:49
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1 -== Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
1 +{{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Quick Links**"}}
2 +{{toc start="2"/}}
3 +{{/box}}
2 2  
5 +== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
3 3  
7 +* one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 +* trading plan needs to be simple:
9 +** what's your risk model
10 +** how to frame that?
11 +** what makes your entry
12 +** what gives you indicators of bullish/bearish market?
13 +** how do you execute the trade?
14 +** how do you manage the trade?
15 +** where do you take profits?
16 +* what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 +** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 +** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 +** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 +* Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 +* The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
22 +* Using Fib Retracement as a visual guide, set the following levels
23 +** -1 - Symmetrical Price Swing
24 +** -0.62 - TP2
25 +** -0.27 - TP1
26 +** 0 - First Profit - Scaling
27 +** 0.5 - Equilibrium
28 +** 0.618 - 62% retracement
29 +** 0.705 - OTE 70.5%
30 +** 0.79 - 79%
31 +** 1 - 100%, or likely SL
32 +* OTE (70.5%) is an ideal target.  getting deeper is better, but you run the risk of not filling your order.  62% retracement is also acceptable, but it results in smaller profits because our SL range will be larger, necessitating smaller order sizes to maintain our risk profile.
33 +* First Scaling, or slightly before, represents the place to take initial profits.  It should be a decent return, preferable better than 1:2 risk/reward, but slightly less than 2 (1.5? 1x75?) is also acceptable.
34 +* Setups on 1h charts better than 5m charts because the pip movements will be larger.
35 +* Key levels xxx.00, xxx.20, xxx.50, xxx.80, yyy.00
36 +* Place the fibs on the body of the candles
37 +* Market structure - example given:
38 +- monthly view
39 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.11.56.png]]
40 +\\- daily view
41 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 +\\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
4 4  
44 +* Note the following:
45 +** institutional levels
46 +** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
47 +** price runs down until it hits the 20 level (1.1720), rallies and creates a new short term high (old - middle red line, new STH, top red line. It's also called a "market structure break"
48 +** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
49 +** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
50 +** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 +
52 +* when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
53 +
54 +== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction ==
55 +
56 +* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
57 +* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
58 +* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
59 +* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
60 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
61 +
62 +* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
63 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
64 +
65 +* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
66 +* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
67 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
68 +We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
69 +
70 +* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
71 +Mark out the previous days high and low.
72 +\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
73 +
74 +* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
75 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
76 +The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
77 +
78 +* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
79 +* Trade
80 +** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
81 +** SL will be set below the 100 level.
82 +** Profit taking
83 +*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
84 +*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
85 +*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
86 +*** take next at -1.5
87 +*** take next at -2.0
88 +*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
89 +*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
90 +*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
91 +*** get out by the last scaling
92 +* Fib settings for Trading View:
93 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
94 +We could also at -1.5 level
95 +
96 +* key things learned
97 +** when to move a stop
98 +** what entry price to look for
99 +** where stop loss should be
100 +** where do you take partials
101 +** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
102 +
103 +== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
104 +
105 +* Daily Chart
106 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.38.28.png]]
107 +\\fib drawn from the swing low, to the swing high
108 +
109 +* previous days high (2nd last candle) broke the high from the day before that.  This means we could potentially see a turn, or an expansion to the upside
110 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.40.40.png]]
111 +\\Our high is 106.65(7)
112 +
113 +* Dropping into the 5m chart:
114 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
115 +\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
116 +
117 +* Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
118 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
119 +
120 +== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 ==
121 +
122 +* example
123 +
124 +== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 ==
125 +
126 +* example
127 +
128 +== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
129 +
130 +* example
131 +
132 +== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
133 +
134 +* example
135 +
136 +== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
137 +
138 +* example
139 +
140 +== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
141 +
142 +* example
143 +
144 +== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
145 +
146 +* example
147 +
148 +== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
149 +
150 +* example
151 +
152 +== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
153 +
154 +* example
155 +
156 +== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
157 +
158 +* example
159 +
160 +== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
161 +
162 +* example
163 +
164 +== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
165 +
166 +* example
167 +
168 +== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
169 +
170 +* example
171 +
172 +== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
173 +
174 +* example
175 +
176 +== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
177 +
178 +* example
179 +
180 +== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
181 +
182 +* example
183 +
184 +== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
185 +
186 +* example
187 +
188 +== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
189 +
190 +* example
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