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ICT YT - 2025-09-26 - Focus On Forex DXY EurUsd GbpUsd 09-25-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:17
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:05 ICT: All right, folks, welcome back. It's September, 25 2025 this is focus on
2 00:00:05 --> 00:00:10 forex. We're looking at Dollar Index, fiber, your USD and cable, POUND DOLLAR.
3 00:00:17 --> 00:00:21 Well, lo and behold, look at that. So I mentioned last week that I was bullish
4 00:00:21 --> 00:00:26 on dollar unless we were to trade below the daily consequent encouragement of
5 00:00:26 --> 00:00:31 this inversion fair value gap that was given to you before the actual formation
6 00:00:31 --> 00:00:38 of it. So it's kind of like one more time proving authorship. The nice rally
7 00:00:38 --> 00:00:44 off of that we've had the last two days has traded above the premium wick in
8 00:00:44 --> 00:00:50 here, above the gap in here, and then up into these highs here. Okay, so I'm
9 00:00:51 --> 00:00:55 going to show you two of them that you have on your chart. The first one, when
10 00:00:55 --> 00:00:58 we were down here and trading up, it's always, you know, this swing high. It's,
11 00:00:59 --> 00:01:05 you got to look at that, obviously, but this high has the longest wick, so
12 00:01:05 --> 00:01:08 that's a premium wick. So you can put your gradient levels on that from the
13 00:01:08 --> 00:01:12 candlestick open to the high. That's what's on here. And let me just toss it
14 00:01:12 --> 00:01:18 in real quick. There's really no reason to worry about whether you should draw
15 00:01:18 --> 00:01:22 the FIB from the low to the high or the high down to the low. When you're doing
16 00:01:22 --> 00:01:28 gradient levels on the wicks, it's not imperative, because you're you're simply
17 00:01:28 --> 00:01:32 looking at where those quadrant levels are. Not so much the importance of
18 00:01:32 --> 00:01:37 whether they're point seven, five or point two, five, it's it's irrelevant.
19 00:01:37 --> 00:01:41 Just looking at the placement of it, where it is in proximity to what price
20 00:01:41 --> 00:01:47 is doing. Okay, so on the right hand side, we have the finance chart again,
21 00:01:47 --> 00:01:52 the left hand side, the daily chart. And at midnight, price is consolidating and
22 00:01:52 --> 00:02:03 traded on the low at 97.786 that's this here. It's the low of this premium wick.
23 00:02:03 --> 00:02:10 So we opened, traded down a little bit of a judo swing, and then we found some
24 00:02:10 --> 00:02:16 support right at that level. Again. Here London Open, kind of was like, really,
25 00:02:16 --> 00:02:23 not all that eventful, but no, the New York session, New York open, had a lot
26 00:02:23 --> 00:02:27 of animation. We had a breakaway gap in here. Just kept on ripping higher. And
27 00:02:27 --> 00:02:36 then we have a fair value gap there, right on the lower quadrant of this
28 00:02:37 --> 00:02:42 premium wick. That's this level right here. Fairway got right at the quadrant
29 00:02:42 --> 00:02:46 level, and a little fair value gap so you can get in pyramid, okay, and then
30 00:02:46 --> 00:02:53 rallies strongly off of that, which creates a retracement lower fair value
31 00:02:53 --> 00:02:56 gap. And then we have a volume imbalance. It's really tight to see it
32 00:02:56 --> 00:02:59 in here, but you know, in your chart, you'll be able to see it easily. The
33 00:02:59 --> 00:03:03 bodies respect the bullish fair value gap. Here we have a measuring gap that
34 00:03:03 --> 00:03:09 stays open. So break away measuring gap and then fair value gap, bullish
35 00:03:09 --> 00:03:14 breaker. So you have a swing low here and a lower low, so that high here,
36 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 bullish breaker trades into it here. Bullish fair value gap rallies through.
37 00:03:19 --> 00:03:24 Bullish variable, I got, once more trades up to the lower quadrant of
38 00:03:25 --> 00:03:31 98.456 that's this level here. That's the lower quadrant of this premium wick.
39 00:03:31 --> 00:03:35 So again, you want to take your time review what these price levels are in
40 00:03:35 --> 00:03:38 relationship to what wick, and then look at where we're at over here. We
41 00:03:38 --> 00:03:44 accumulate around that 4540 I'm sorry, 9845 six level there, and trades higher.
42 00:03:44 --> 00:03:47 And I just included all this price action because it just kept going
43 00:03:47 --> 00:03:55 further beyond the normal London closed time period. London close is as an
44 00:03:55 --> 00:03:59 extended window of time goes from 10 o'clock in the morning Eastern Time to
45 00:03:59 --> 00:04:02 as much as one o'clock in the afternoon. That's that's kind of like my the
46 00:04:02 --> 00:04:06 lattice. Of like my the lattice, the latest, the latest portion in a day of
47 00:04:06 --> 00:04:11 the New York session, pm session that I'd be concerned about. So obviously, it
48 00:04:11 --> 00:04:14 goes a little bit further than that today, because it's such a big blow off
49 00:04:14 --> 00:04:20 type run. So we're reaching for the buy side here, and the upper half of that
50 00:04:20 --> 00:04:30 premium wick, and then we'll look at this one in a moment. So now I have the
51 00:04:30 --> 00:04:36 FIB ran across, this premium wick, and these levels here you can see, are much
52 00:04:36 --> 00:04:44 more pertinent once we get into the 9824 and a half level. That's this here. Look
53 00:04:44 --> 00:04:49 at the body respects it there. The candlesticks are respecting that level
54 00:04:49 --> 00:04:54 there. And we drew right back down into that. So we have upper quadrant there,
55 00:04:55 --> 00:05:00 which will be that, and then the high so what are these? Right here? Right
56 00:05:01 --> 00:05:05 relative equal highs. Right isn't qualified by having a lower one to the
57 00:05:05 --> 00:05:13 right than that one here. Yes. So buy side sitting at 98 73.3, that's in
58 00:05:13 --> 00:05:15 striking distance for Dollar Index.
59 00:05:20 --> 00:05:24 Right? Euro, dollar. This maybe just fell right out of bed, didn't it?
60 00:05:24 --> 00:05:28 Inversion fair value gap. We covered that the other day, and we have a gap
61 00:05:28 --> 00:05:32 here, which is a bullish fair value gap. I'm not going to change the color in
62 00:05:32 --> 00:05:35 this, because I don't want to confuse you with these two here, but this
63 00:05:35 --> 00:05:42 changes its state to a premium array to it's going to be what it changes from a
64 00:05:42 --> 00:05:46 busy that would be bullish once it trades down into it, like it did here,
65 00:05:46 --> 00:05:50 but if it trades down through it like it did yesterday, this becomes an inversion
66 00:05:50 --> 00:05:55 fair value gap. Okay, so it's going to act as a reversal of what we expected.
67 00:05:55 --> 00:05:58 And no, that's not my smoke detector. In case you heard that, beep, beep. I have
68 00:05:58 --> 00:06:01 a perimeter alarm that lets me know when my puppies are trying to get into an
69 00:06:01 --> 00:06:04 area house I don't want them in. Them in and the batteries are dying, so I got to
70 00:06:04 --> 00:06:10 change them all right? So the market creates this run up into here London,
71 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 London kill zone again, like in dollar index was kind of like lethargic, wasn't
72 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 doing all that much. And then New York session, we came alive. We had a
73 00:06:18 --> 00:06:22 breakaway gap, bearish, fair value gap. We traded up into that. Here's your Judo
74 00:06:22 --> 00:06:27 swing during New York session. Break lower order block that's bears change
75 00:06:27 --> 00:06:31 into state delivery. This candlestick here to open big, precipitous drop.
76 00:06:31 --> 00:06:37 Lower trades down into the discount wick on this candlestick here, you can see it
77 00:06:37 --> 00:06:45 at 1.16945 that's this lot more here, and it creates a measuring gap and a
78 00:06:45 --> 00:06:51 breaker. So we have swing high, low, higher, high. That's a bearish breaker.
79 00:06:51 --> 00:06:54 We trade up into it several times. Look at the wicks. This will allow the due to
80 00:06:54 --> 00:06:59 damage, and then we break lower. We have a small, little fair value gap. It's not
81 00:07:00 --> 00:07:03 enough room for me to annotate, but it would be a fair, bearish fairbag out
82 00:07:03 --> 00:07:08 there, and we have an inversion fair value gap there, trades up into it,
83 00:07:08 --> 00:07:13 there perfectly, and then drops lower into the London close, trading below the
84 00:07:13 --> 00:07:23 low of that discount wick. Now I'm going to show you this discount wick, where I
85 00:07:23 --> 00:07:28 believe that we may be requiring attention to so these levels here, you
86 00:07:28 --> 00:07:35 want to have them on your chart as well. You can look at this one here, the
87 00:07:35 --> 00:07:40 longest, one lower. But don't disregard this one. It's important you have that
88 00:07:40 --> 00:07:49 one, okay, POUND DOLLAR or cable. Same thing here. We had a bearish fair value
89 00:07:49 --> 00:07:56 gap, reclaimed, reclaimed delivered from yesterday, and then the discount wick
90 00:07:56 --> 00:07:59 here, and then we have a discount wick there, and then we have a bullish fair
91 00:07:59 --> 00:08:03 value cap. It traded down to and I put the gradient levels on the bullish
92 00:08:03 --> 00:08:06 repair value gap. So just to pay attention, you know what we're looking
93 00:08:06 --> 00:08:10 at over here. This is the daily range for today. On Thursday. You can see how
94 00:08:10 --> 00:08:21 we traded up into the upper quadrant of this one here, at 1.34650 right there,
95 00:08:23 --> 00:08:27 fair value gap trades up in bodies respecting it, and it's also the lower
96 00:08:27 --> 00:08:36 quadrant of that count wick. We break lower after another, return up in with
97 00:08:36 --> 00:08:40 that fair value gap, then we have a breakaway gap. Fair value gap trade up
98 00:08:40 --> 00:08:44 into it there, which is institutional order, flow entry drill, and it happens
99 00:08:44 --> 00:08:49 to land directly on consequent encroachment of this discount link
100 00:08:51 --> 00:08:55 breaks aggressively. Now we have a measuring gap about halfway what we're
101 00:08:55 --> 00:09:01 expecting to trade down to that bullish fair value gap over here trades into a
102 00:09:01 --> 00:09:07 city which is a bearish fair value fair bag out there, discount wick graded that
103 00:09:07 --> 00:09:13 trades up into that shoots it with the the wick only not the body into this
104 00:09:13 --> 00:09:17 bearish fair value gap. And we have a small, little fair bag out there, bodies
105 00:09:17 --> 00:09:20 respecting it. Wicks are allowed to trade outside of it. And then we have
106 00:09:20 --> 00:09:24 another little fair value gap there, digs into that bullish fair value gap in
107 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 blue, and the bodies respect this fair value gap and sells off and trades just
108 00:09:29 --> 00:09:34 short right before it gets to that little low down here. So it was like one
109 00:09:34 --> 00:09:39 tick or so away from that. That's very, very close for government work, right?
110 00:09:39 --> 00:09:45 So you can see how having an understanding of reading gaps that are
111 00:09:45 --> 00:09:51 viewed in your candlestick as a wick above or below a candlestick. Steve
112 00:09:51 --> 00:09:55 Nielsen did a lot of stuff, writing about candlesticks and whatnot, and I do
113 00:09:55 --> 00:09:59 not subscribe to any of the stuff he wrote about in a disrespect to him, but
114 00:09:59 --> 00:10:03 I. If you're gonna look at candlesticks this. This is the real science behind
115 00:10:03 --> 00:10:06 it, because you can really read real institutional order flow, real order
116 00:10:06 --> 00:10:10 flow. And you don't need to worry about how many contracts somebody wants to buy
117 00:10:10 --> 00:10:14 or sell above or below the marketplace, because the number of those contracts
118 00:10:14 --> 00:10:18 absolutely has no bearing on where the market's gonna go. Zero has zero bearing
119 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 on how the market's gonna go. You need to know where it's likely to reach for
120 00:10:22 --> 00:10:26 in a direction, and then look for key levels like this, like I'm teaching you
121 00:10:26 --> 00:10:30 here. Over the last two weeks, I've given you insights about reading price
122 00:10:30 --> 00:10:34 action that nobody on this planet has ever talked about. I mean, I've talked
123 00:10:34 --> 00:10:40 about it with my kids, but I've never shared it to the degree that I'm doing
124 00:10:40 --> 00:10:44 here in the last two weeks, and you can see how it overlaps with my PD arrays
125 00:10:44 --> 00:10:49 like perfectly. And by having that overlapping and confluence, it just
126 00:10:49 --> 00:10:54 makes the PD arrays stand out on your chart, and that means that you know
127 00:10:54 --> 00:10:56 which one to use now going forward.
128 00:11:06 --> 00:11:09 Hi, folks, hope you enjoyed this one, hope you got something out of it, and
129 00:11:09 --> 00:11:13 thank you for your continued interest, and I will talk to you again tomorrow.
130 00:11:13 --> 00:11:16 Lord willing until next time. Be safe.