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ICT YT - 2025-06-11 - 2025 Lecture Series - EurUsd and NQ Futures 06-11-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:14
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:07 ICT: Good morning, folks. How are you? So the brief little update as to what I
2 00:00:07 --> 00:00:12 see, I have not been able to spend much time looking at price action over the
3 00:00:12 --> 00:00:19 last few days. I had to family matter come up, my wife and I have to deal with
4 00:00:19 --> 00:00:26 so with all that said, this is the NASDAQ is a daily chart, and if you
5 00:00:26 --> 00:00:29 recall, check your notes, if you've been following along on x and all the
6 00:00:29 --> 00:00:34 analysis and commentary I've been giving guidance for this specific index,
7 00:00:35 --> 00:00:39 NASDAQ, I mentioned that we were looking for higher prices. We're continuously
8 00:00:39 --> 00:00:45 looking for higher pricing, ignoring the natural tendency they want to pick a
9 00:00:45 --> 00:00:52 top. If a top comes, we'll know it. But right now, it just keeps on trying to
10 00:00:52 --> 00:00:58 reach higher. And want to show you again when price was down, here we're looking
11 00:00:58 --> 00:01:05 at the likelihood of drawing up into this imbalance. This wicks consequent
12 00:01:05 --> 00:01:12 encroachment, and then this Sibi here, ultimately drawing up to this high and
13 00:01:12 --> 00:01:17 in all time highs, okay, so those are the levels that are salient to me that I
14 00:01:17 --> 00:01:20 mentioned tonight, not just mentioning it the first time here, but it's been
15 00:01:20 --> 00:01:29 drug out over top of about two months worth of data, and this wick, this
16 00:01:29 --> 00:01:33 constant encroachment of that half of that wick, is what's being highlighted
17 00:01:33 --> 00:01:36 here. Now if you look real close, it looks like it gets blurry. It's because
18 00:01:36 --> 00:01:40 there's another level there. We'll see it in a moment. But I just want you to
19 00:01:40 --> 00:01:44 see that there's a confluence of that occurring. So just before I drop down, I
20 00:01:44 --> 00:01:51 want to make sure that this is going to show up on all time frames, and it looks
21 00:01:51 --> 00:01:56 like we're good to go on that. Okay, all right, so today we have CPI number, and
22 00:01:56 --> 00:02:03 tomorrow we have ppi and all kinds of stuff going on around the world. So it's
23 00:02:03 --> 00:02:08 a Molotov cocktail. Basically, you should not be trying to trade
24 00:02:08 --> 00:02:12 aggressively, as I mentioned on x. I just want to toss it in there right now
25 00:02:12 --> 00:02:20 and just know that we're in the summer months with all kinds of volatile events
26 00:02:20 --> 00:02:25 around us, both domestically, here in the States, which you know as a kind of
27 00:02:25 --> 00:02:31 like a reminder and like a All Points Bulletin. If you are in a states, be
28 00:02:31 --> 00:02:35 careful this weekend. Okay, there's a lot of things that some nefarious
29 00:02:35 --> 00:02:41 individuals and entities are scheduling to run amok this weekend. So it looks
30 00:02:41 --> 00:02:46 like rain. So bring your overall we have this buy some balance outside and
31 00:02:46 --> 00:02:57 efficiency here on June 3, 2020, 2520 25 and then the market has reached up. Use
32 00:02:57 --> 00:03:02 this down, close candles, opening price, which is changes the delivery my order
33 00:03:02 --> 00:03:12 block. You can see that there and then we drew up into this wick, as I said, we
34 00:03:12 --> 00:03:19 would do weeks and almost a month ago. Wicked so far, but look at all the
35 00:03:19 --> 00:03:25 overlapping of these candlesticks in the previous day's ranges. So this is a lot
36 00:03:25 --> 00:03:34 of time being spent in here. So my perspective is this, in brief, they're
37 00:03:34 --> 00:03:39 trying to retail is trying to short this, and they just keep pressing it
38 00:03:39 --> 00:03:45 higher, higher, higher. Okay, CPI, ppi, number may deliver us into this fair
39 00:03:45 --> 00:03:50 value gap here. And I would be content with that if it was something that I was
40 00:03:50 --> 00:03:53 in the market, if I was in there actively holding a position. I don't
41 00:03:53 --> 00:03:57 have an open position right now, but I would be looking forward to trade up in
42 00:03:57 --> 00:04:00 here. And if it did, I'd be content with moving to the sidelines and just
43 00:04:01 --> 00:04:06 relaxing, okay, trying not to press too hard, because the climate we're in right
44 00:04:06 --> 00:04:12 now is not conducive for low risk, but rather high probability of you being
45 00:04:12 --> 00:04:16 incorrect. Okay, so professionals don't like to push the the edge in those kinds
46 00:04:16 --> 00:04:20 of environments, because the only thing it does is it dulls your edge
47 00:04:21 --> 00:04:25 needlessly. And this wick down here is constant encouragement. So it dropped
48 00:04:25 --> 00:04:29 down in here, open there, and then rallied up. So we're gonna take this
49 00:04:29 --> 00:04:32 information, drop Ollie down into a one minute chart, because it's already
50 00:04:32 --> 00:04:34 getting too long in the tooth here.
51 00:04:40 --> 00:04:50 And just remember that I did not add the levels on the talk about so let's go
52 00:04:50 --> 00:04:55 back to that real quick. I know so unprofessional this guy. He says he's
53 00:04:56 --> 00:04:59 been doing this for 33 years. He looked like he's doing it for the first time.
54 00:04:59 --> 00:05:04 I. All right, so we're going to draw from this high up to this low. Okay, so
55 00:05:04 --> 00:05:05 there's your
56 00:05:07 --> 00:05:07 February, 24
57 00:05:09 --> 00:05:15 2025 daily city. Okay, this candle sticks low to this candle sticks high
58 00:05:16 --> 00:05:22 the fib levels in here. Watch these, these lines in here. See here's one
59 00:05:22 --> 00:05:29 there, and then this one here, which is anchored to that, if I go to the FIB and
60 00:05:29 --> 00:05:40 highlight the negative 0.5 level, that will take us right up into constant
61 00:05:40 --> 00:05:49 correction that wick. Okay, so essentially, what is that? 981, even, or
62 00:05:49 --> 00:05:52 thereabouts. So we'll see it when we get down lower time frames. So now we have
63 00:05:52 --> 00:05:57 the quadrant levels in here, and that expansion boundary where it can trade
64 00:05:57 --> 00:06:02 outside of that range of that city. It's basically the same principle I taught
65 00:06:02 --> 00:06:09 with negative one and negative point five for the opening range gaps. Okay,
66 00:06:09 --> 00:06:15 so that principle is universal, so it's half of and or a replication of a range.
67 00:06:16 --> 00:06:23 Those are usually the the easiest go to D markers for when we're in a
68 00:06:23 --> 00:06:29 consolidation, or a defined range of any kind, half of that range or one standard
69 00:06:29 --> 00:06:35 deviation or full, basically a measured move type measurement of whatever that
70 00:06:35 --> 00:06:40 range, high and low is, whatever it is, it's usually going to move outside of it
71 00:06:40 --> 00:06:44 by half of its range, or one full measurement of its high to low range.
72 00:06:45 --> 00:06:49 And again, if you watch any work on my opening range ideas, you'll know what
73 00:06:49 --> 00:06:54 I'm talking about. So let's drop down now into the one minute chart in this
74 00:06:54 --> 00:07:00 video. That's not supposed to be so long, all right, and then we'll crunch
75 00:07:00 --> 00:07:01 this up.
76 00:07:06 --> 00:07:14 And this is the business for where we may oops. I shouldn't have done that.
77 00:07:15 --> 00:07:22 There you go. This is what I have here and see, by being organized with your
78 00:07:22 --> 00:07:26 annotations, it'll tell you when you're in a lower timeframes, what this is, all
79 00:07:28 --> 00:07:35 right, and then the lower quadrant on that February, 2420 25 you
80 00:07:46 --> 00:07:50 it's Monday's trading. So we have the low of that daily saving on the 24th of
81 00:07:50 --> 00:07:55 February. Notice we have not traded down there. We got down to the lowest
82 00:07:55 --> 00:08:00 quadrant here, and then we traded down into that order block. Remember, look at
83 00:08:00 --> 00:08:05 the daily chart, and you'll see what that level was right there. Okay, trade
84 00:08:05 --> 00:08:15 up to the high of the 24th of February's city, and then back down to that order
85 00:08:15 --> 00:08:21 block traded just outside of that range, that daily city, then back down into the
86 00:08:21 --> 00:08:29 upper quadrant, then up to that negative 0.5 level, which is also the consequent
87 00:08:29 --> 00:08:39 encroachment of that premium wick, and it's also negative 0.5 of The Daily
88 00:08:39 --> 00:08:44 sippy on February 24 2025 now for someone new that already has your head
89 00:08:44 --> 00:08:47 spinning, you have no idea what I'm talking about, but I promise you, if you
90 00:08:48 --> 00:08:51 watch the video a few times, because right now, it's only been a couple
91 00:08:51 --> 00:08:54 minutes, like eight minutes or so, you'll see what I'm talking about, how
92 00:08:54 --> 00:09:01 these levels are converging, and it also takes out This little high here. So
93 00:09:01 --> 00:09:07 notice that we've basically just used the levels I told you to watch on the
94 00:09:07 --> 00:09:11 weekend before the weekend started trading and just reacted off of these
95 00:09:11 --> 00:09:16 quadrant levels rather nicely consolidated around it, Judith swing,
96 00:09:16 --> 00:09:18 pumped it up, dropped down.
97 00:09:19 --> 00:09:20 Order block,
98 00:09:21 --> 00:09:29 lowest quadrant of the February 2024, I'm saying 2024 I thought I said that
99 00:09:29 --> 00:09:35 now I'm certain I may have stopped earlier, February 24 of 2025, daily
100 00:09:35 --> 00:09:39 city. That's what these levels are. Marking these are, this is the
101 00:09:39 --> 00:09:44 consequent cursor and midpoint of it, upper quadrant and the high of it. So we
102 00:09:44 --> 00:09:49 reached up into a convergence of consequent encroachment levels. Okay,
103 00:09:49 --> 00:09:55 clustering there and now we're using the high this morning in London, of the
104 00:09:55 --> 00:10:03 daily City on February 24 of 2025 and. Rally up, and I want to drop into the
105 00:10:08 --> 00:10:21 right right now. And to me, these lows are suspect, so they can come back down
106 00:10:21 --> 00:10:29 in here on the the CPI number. Because sometimes CPI can be a one way, one way
107 00:10:30 --> 00:10:34 railroad just runs right over top in one direction. Sometimes it can be a two
108 00:10:34 --> 00:10:37 stage delivery, where it could drop down, take the liquidity here, and since
109 00:10:37 --> 00:10:43 I'm primarily bullish, I'm risk going and weak on dollar. So I don't think the
110 00:10:43 --> 00:10:45 dollar is going to go higher. Then a reason for the dollar go higher? So many
111 00:10:45 --> 00:10:50 things against that right now, and I think gold's going to go higher. And if
112 00:10:50 --> 00:10:54 you take a look at Silver, I mentioned last year in the fall, months and
113 00:10:54 --> 00:11:00 summer, told you all this, start really adding on to metals. And while silver
114 00:11:00 --> 00:11:04 was being consolidated and held. It's recently been allowed to trade higher. I
115 00:11:05 --> 00:11:10 don't think that's done. I think all the the data centers that they're, they're
116 00:11:10 --> 00:11:15 trying to build, all those things like that, are going to require a lot of
117 00:11:15 --> 00:11:19 silver. So I think that is a fundamental driver, if you want to go there, when it
118 00:11:19 --> 00:11:23 comes to commodities, then I believe there is a supply and demand. Factor.
119 00:11:23 --> 00:11:28 Otherwise, everything else outside of that asset class is all BS. There's no
120 00:11:28 --> 00:11:32 real reason to own a share of stock. There's no real reason to own that. You
121 00:11:32 --> 00:11:37 know, a contract of NASDAQ index futures, it's there's no real reason to
122 00:11:37 --> 00:11:41 do that, except for gambling. Is really what it is. It's speculation. But with
123 00:11:41 --> 00:11:47 commodities, there's a real net sum Zero game to it with regards to supply and
124 00:11:47 --> 00:11:52 demand. But I think we could drop down into here at the very minimum, drop
125 00:11:52 --> 00:11:59 below here, and then maybe move higher. But just be mindful that CPI number and
126 00:11:59 --> 00:12:07 PPI numbers are absolutely unknown to me. I don't I've not had confidence in
127 00:12:07 --> 00:12:13 being able to forecast the PPI CPI number in my three decades, plus, once
128 00:12:13 --> 00:12:17 in a while, in a blue moon, I've been correct, but not to the degree where I
129 00:12:17 --> 00:12:22 would place a lot of risk behind that trader or or viewpoint. So just know
130 00:12:22 --> 00:12:26 that what I'm saying here, just study it. Okay, just just watch and see if
131 00:12:26 --> 00:12:31 there's anything to it. So you know, that's the that's the skinny on that. I
132 00:12:31 --> 00:12:34 want to take your attention to Euro, because I did talk about that also over
133 00:12:34 --> 00:12:40 the weekend. So let's go and actually, I know some of you are wanting to know if
134 00:12:40 --> 00:12:43 I've done anything. I have not had a whole lot of time to do very much this
135 00:12:43 --> 00:12:44 week.
136 00:12:50 --> 00:13:00 You can see the using the upper quadrant here, and this Sibi. I used it as a
137 00:13:00 --> 00:13:05 reclaimed ready yet,
138 00:13:16 --> 00:13:21 see that there and then it looks like I got out at the consequent encroachment.
139 00:13:21 --> 00:13:30 I did, and it was just me getting low, the sell side, right here, low, right
140 00:13:30 --> 00:13:41 there. Watch the sell side liquidity. There it is over there. You can see that
141 00:13:41 --> 00:13:47 there's the exit. So 70 handles there, and I haven't had anything for the rest
142 00:13:47 --> 00:13:48 of the week,
143 00:13:53 --> 00:13:54 business to talk about.
144 00:13:57 --> 00:14:01 There's a few things I would have liked to trade, but time I have here today
145 00:14:01 --> 00:14:04 doesn't allow me, or afford me to be able to talk about it. But it was only
146 00:14:04 --> 00:14:07 two other situations. One would have been a scratch. I would have got stopped
147 00:14:07 --> 00:14:12 out covering costs, and the other would have been 40 handle. So it's not aim
148 00:14:12 --> 00:14:16 that big of a deal, but this is the only thing I got really the show for the
149 00:14:16 --> 00:14:22 week, and I'm content with sitting on my hands the rest of it. So just a really
150 00:14:22 --> 00:14:27 challenging consolidation, which again, now let's take us over to Euro, dollar,
151 00:14:29 --> 00:14:38 if it was redelivery in here, inside that area, I was counseling you to look
152 00:14:38 --> 00:14:45 at just ignoring this candlestick is indecisive, and using this candlesticks
153 00:14:46 --> 00:14:54 low, this candlesticks high, that is your actual gap. Extend that through and
154 00:14:54 --> 00:14:57 trading through here, it looks sloppy. It's like, okay, what's the use here?
155 00:14:57 --> 00:15:03 Well, I mentioned that if we didn't get this. This expectation of moving higher.
156 00:15:04 --> 00:15:10 In other words, I wanted to see it remain above this, but if it does go
157 00:15:10 --> 00:15:13 below it, go back and listen to the video. If it does go below it, then I
158 00:15:13 --> 00:15:16 think what we'll do is we'll go into sideways consolidation. And I think by
159 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 anybody's definition that you could see here. Okay, so those skill sets, those
160 00:15:21 --> 00:15:28 ideas, are not found in books. That's an experience driven perspective, and the
161 00:15:28 --> 00:15:32 things I teach you to do and things I tell you to keep track of and annotate
162 00:15:32 --> 00:15:35 and journal. If you don't journal, you'll never learn the skill set of
163 00:15:35 --> 00:15:39 anticipating when consolidation is going to be there. If you look at the very
164 00:15:39 --> 00:15:44 first video of my 2016 private mentorship. All of those videos are
165 00:15:44 --> 00:15:49 uploaded on my YouTube channel for free. Just look at the ICT mentorship, 2016
166 00:15:50 --> 00:15:56 2017 playlist, and I broke them down in the individual playlist by month and the
167 00:15:56 --> 00:16:02 very first video of month, one elements up to a trade setup I talk about the
168 00:16:03 --> 00:16:07 four major characteristics of a trade setup. You know, there's, there's an
169 00:16:07 --> 00:16:12 element of consolidation. And you're not going to know in the beginning how to
170 00:16:12 --> 00:16:16 anticipate when consolidation is going to come into the marketplace. And you're
171 00:16:16 --> 00:16:20 not going to know as a new trader when that market will leave consolidation and
172 00:16:20 --> 00:16:25 go into, you know, a trending or a reversal or something to that effect.
173 00:16:26 --> 00:16:32 And that's one of the benefits of having a mentor that's been doing it for a long
174 00:16:32 --> 00:16:36 time, and not just talk about it through a market replay perspective. If you
175 00:16:36 --> 00:16:39 don't have the foresight or the experience, be able to have
176 00:16:39 --> 00:16:45 prognostication that has a track record of a length of time beyond just last
177 00:16:45 --> 00:16:49 year or two years, parroting somebody else has been doing it decades longer
178 00:16:49 --> 00:16:54 than them. It's very telling when you listen to someone, when they share
179 00:16:54 --> 00:17:00 insights, because if they can't, number one, stand on transparency and say,
180 00:17:00 --> 00:17:07 there are times I'm not going to know, and right now I don't know. I just know
181 00:17:07 --> 00:17:11 that we if we did not use the inversion fair value gap to go higher, then we
182 00:17:11 --> 00:17:15 were going to go in consolidation, because everything is still primarily
183 00:17:15 --> 00:17:25 risk going, meaning all assets that are not dollar viewed, in other words, Euro,
184 00:17:25 --> 00:17:30 dollar, euros higher, dollar lower, or dollar consolidation, Euro Higher,
185 00:17:30 --> 00:17:36 higher. That's That's risk on for me, risk off would be dollar index rallying
186 00:17:36 --> 00:17:41 higher, Euro going lower or euro and consolidation while dollar goes higher,
187 00:17:42 --> 00:17:50 that's risk off. So I'm primarily anticipating higher prices across the
188 00:17:50 --> 00:17:59 board, except for dollar. And for someone that's new, you might see this,
189 00:17:59 --> 00:18:02 and you may have watched your this week and probably giggled to yourself and
190 00:18:02 --> 00:18:07 said, to yourself and said, This guy, he was really wrong on Euro. I explained
191 00:18:07 --> 00:18:11 why I would be wrong, and that's something also that's useful as a
192 00:18:11 --> 00:18:19 trader, knowing what would be a catalyst for you to move to the sidelines and
193 00:18:19 --> 00:18:23 say, Okay, I'm not going to trade in this environment because it no longer
194 00:18:23 --> 00:18:28 fits the characteristics that I would expect initially, and still be useful
195 00:18:28 --> 00:18:32 for the model I trade and not be gambling. Okay, just because the markets
196 00:18:32 --> 00:18:35 are moving around doesn't mean that, you know, hey, let me go here and press the
197 00:18:35 --> 00:18:39 button and see what if I can make some money, or I'll pass some combines, or
198 00:18:39 --> 00:18:43 this that nothing messing around, mucking about in these environments, you
199 00:18:43 --> 00:18:47 will blow your accounts. That's a guarantee. I don't care who you are, I
200 00:18:47 --> 00:18:51 don't care how good you think you are. You're going to blow your accounts
201 00:18:51 --> 00:18:56 because you're going to get tripped up into taking more trades than you should.
202 00:18:56 --> 00:19:01 You're going to trade a larger leverage than you really should, and you're going
203 00:19:01 --> 00:19:04 to be competing with everybody else online because they may have done
204 00:19:04 --> 00:19:08 something, and you've not been able to show anything yet, or you're in
205 00:19:08 --> 00:19:13 drawdown. So this, this present condition in the marketplace right now,
206 00:19:13 --> 00:19:17 with all the things that are going on, this is a perfect storm for someone that
207 00:19:17 --> 00:19:24 has no discipline, no self control, no model, no experience, no respect for the
208 00:19:24 --> 00:19:30 measure of risk. It's a shipwreck waiting to happen, and nobody's at
209 00:19:30 --> 00:19:38 fault, but you when it does so anyway, with all that, I can expect higher
210 00:19:38 --> 00:19:46 prices with the same thing I mentioned with in regards to NASDAQ, let's say
211 00:19:46 --> 00:19:52 that the PPI and the CPI number do something that causes some kind of a
212 00:19:52 --> 00:19:59 sell off in gold or euro. I say gold, but I meant Euro here, these lows in
213 00:19:59 --> 00:20:04 here, I. So I'd like to see them make an attempt to get down there, but not take
214 00:20:04 --> 00:20:08 them out, because it's too close this low here. So if it's going to take these
215 00:20:08 --> 00:20:13 lows out, then it's going to take that low out, and that changes the dynamic,
216 00:20:13 --> 00:20:16 at least somewhat short term. Doesn't mean that I'm calling a top in the euro.
217 00:20:16 --> 00:20:21 Doesn't mean that the dollar is going to go rallying higher explosively. I'm not
218 00:20:21 --> 00:20:25 suggesting that at all that might, that's my opinion. But none of this
219 00:20:25 --> 00:20:29 should be used as a trade idea or a catalyst for you to put on real monetary
220 00:20:29 --> 00:20:33 risk. It's just to stimulate ideas and thinking critically on your own part.
221 00:20:33 --> 00:20:39 But I find it fascinating that today we use that inversion for everybody. Got
222 00:20:39 --> 00:20:44 dimension over the weekend here, and I'd like to see it draw up into this level
223 00:20:44 --> 00:20:49 here, and then this for Euro. Watch this. I would like to see this in here
224 00:20:50 --> 00:20:55 act as an inversion fair value gap
225 00:21:01 --> 00:21:06 sometime before we close this week out. That would be interesting to see that.
226 00:21:06 --> 00:21:09 And then, should it do that? Then, obviously, make an intent to get up the
227 00:21:09 --> 00:21:14 device out here. Okay? And I think that's going to be it. I spent a lot
228 00:21:14 --> 00:21:17 more time than I wanted to, but I just want to touch base with you all. Thank
229 00:21:17 --> 00:21:20 you so much for your prayers, and Lord willing, I will be back with you as soon
230 00:21:20 --> 00:21:24 as I can. And be careful this weekend, if you're in the States, you.