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2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:04 |ICT: Hello Folks. All right, so we're going to start a new lecture series
3 |2 |00:00:04 ~-~-> 00:00:09 |here. I don't want to really call it a mentorship, but we're going to do some
4 |3 |00:00:09 ~-~-> 00:00:16 |discussions, and I'm going to talk about how if I were a new student of my own
5 |4 |00:00:16 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |work, and I had recently completed my 2024 mentorship that's on this YouTube
6 |5 |00:00:21 ~-~-> 00:00:26 |channel for free, and I was able to go through a lot of the core content that
7 |6 |00:00:26 ~-~-> 00:00:32 |was produced in 2016 2017 through my paid mentorship. For anyone that is
8 |7 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:37 |always asking, Can I join your private mentorship? It's basically uploaded for
9 |8 |00:00:37 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |free on my YouTube channel. Okay, so dig into it, enjoy it and study it and take
10 |9 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:48 |what works for you out of it. Not everything that I have ever taught is
11 |10 |00:00:48 ~-~-> 00:00:55 |required to find consistently profitable trading, as you'll see in this lecture
12 |11 |00:00:55 ~-~-> 00:01:01 |series over the next 20 videos, which won't be very long, their focus is
13 |12 |00:01:01 ~-~-> 00:01:09 |primarily to illustrate how one might arrive at a model using the information
14 |13 |00:01:09 ~-~-> 00:01:14 |that's been brought to light on this YouTube channel. I want to, kind of make
15 |14 |00:01:14 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |it very simple, and I want to have every possible ICT concept, you know, that's
16 |15 |00:01:20 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |available on the YouTube channel. I kind of like want to focus on what was
17 |16 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:31 |discussed primarily off of the 2024 mentorship content. So for folks that
18 |17 |00:01:31 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |went through it and it was your first exposure to Smart Money concepts, or my
19 |18 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |life's work, if you will, that introduction will be a little bit
20 |19 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |amplified. But again, even with this lecture series, I will not exhaust every
21 |20 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:51 |possible concepts, approach or application, but I will hopefully
22 |21 |00:01:51 ~-~-> 00:01:58 |provide you a example of an executable trading plan. It will be employed with a
23 |22 |00:01:58 ~-~-> 00:02:04 |live, real money account that's a regulated CFTC, regulated broker. That
24 |23 |00:02:04 ~-~-> 00:02:07 |means it's not Market Replay. That means it's not demo it's not paper trading,
25 |24 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |and you do have to pay taxes on the income that you make off of it. So if we
26 |25 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:19 |are to go into this with the intended goal that I have for it, I want to cover
27 |26 |00:02:19 ~-~-> 00:02:26 |basically five central tenants that anyone that goes through my content
28 |27 |00:02:26 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |should try to consider as focal points. Okay, there's lots of different rabbit
29 |28 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |trails and things you can go down and study on a topical basis on this YouTube
30 |29 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |channel, but for the folks that simply want to have something to go into their
31 |30 |00:02:43 ~-~-> 00:02:50 |back testing and look for, for them to go into a tape reading endeavor where
32 |31 |00:02:50 ~-~-> 00:02:54 |they watch price they don't push a button, whether it be demo or live, and
33 |32 |00:02:54 ~-~-> 00:02:58 |then they forward test with a demo account or paper trading account. And
34 |33 |00:02:58 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |then eventually, and some of you will come to the point at which you'll
35 |34 |00:03:02 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |discover that you feel that you have arrived at consistency in your paper
36 |35 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |trading or demo trading. And when you decide not when I decide for you, not
37 |36 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |when anybody else should, should decide it for you, it's something that you're
38 |37 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:21 |going to come to your own decision. And you're going to want to eventually move
39 |38 |00:03:21 ~-~-> 00:03:27 |from paper trading or demo trading to a live funded your real money account.
40 |39 |00:03:29 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |When that happens, I get lots of questions on, how might that work for
41 |40 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |someone as a student, I'm going to pantomime in the month of February, how
42 |41 |00:03:40 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |that might be done. It is not a panacea. That means it's not the be all, end all.
43 |42 |00:03:45 ~-~-> 00:03:49 |The only way it can be done. It's just to provide an example. Okay, so that way
44 |43 |00:03:50 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |it gives a a real world, realistic approach on how to transition from demo
45 |44 |00:03:56 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |and paper trading to then slowly rolling out the implementation of live risk with
46 |45 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |real money. Okay? Now I know there's a lot of folks in my community that use
47 |46 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |prop counts. That means these companies that allow you to trade with demo
48 |47 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:15 |accounts, and then if you're correct with them, and you do all the hop, skip
49 |48 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:21 |and jump through the things that they add into the mix as a as a traitor.
50 |49 |00:04:22 ~-~-> 00:04:25 |These rules that they create for you that, in my opinion, are above and
51 |50 |00:04:25 ~-~-> 00:04:30 |beyond what is what is necessary. They complicate it. In my opinion, it's sold
52 |51 |00:04:30 ~-~-> 00:04:36 |on the idea that it's to help you, but it's really a handicap, and very few
53 |52 |00:04:36 ~-~-> 00:04:41 |people have the wherewithal to get through those rules. So I'm not trying
54 |53 |00:04:41 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |to counsel you to use prop counts. I am encouraging you to eventually, if you
55 |54 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |decide to do this with real money, use a small amount of money. Okay, now, what's
56 |55 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:01 |a small amount of money? Well, that's kind of I. Uh, relative to who you're
57 |56 |00:05:01 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |talking to, a little bit of money for me may not be a little bit of money for
58 |57 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |you, and a lot of money for me may not be a lot of money to some of you that
59 |58 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |are listening. So it's all subjective to you know what it is that constitutes a
60 |59 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |large amount of money. But if you look at the prop firm, companies, if you look
61 |60 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |at what they're allowing you to lose before the the account is shut down. If
62 |61 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:31 |you started a Live account with, say, half of what they allow for, for
63 |62 |00:05:31 ~-~-> 00:05:36 |instance, some larger known prop companies may afford you to lose a
64 |63 |00:05:36 ~-~-> 00:05:41 |hypothetical $3,000 and then you are essentially blown out and you have to
65 |64 |00:05:41 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |reset. Others are $1,000 some are 1500 and it varies from company, company and
66 |65 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |whatever, I guess, plan or option you use to trade through. My opinion is that
67 |66 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |if you're going to trade with live funds, the very minimum, the very, very,
68 |67 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |very minimum is 1000 US dollars. Now when I say that, that doesn't mean that
69 |68 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |you go out and try to trade larger than you should with $1,000 account, if you
70 |69 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |trade with a micro account, which is what you're seeing this chart here, the
71 |70 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:28 |upper left hand corner, you can see it says micro E, mini NASDAQ, 100 that
72 |71 |00:06:28 ~-~-> 00:06:35 |means the point fluctuation. That means one point higher or lower represents a
73 |72 |00:06:35 ~-~-> 00:06:42 |$2 profit or loss per contract. Now in mini contract, one point fluctuation
74 |73 |00:06:42 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |higher or lower is a multiple of $20 profit or loss depending upon on the
75 |74 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:56 |direction of the position you're holding. My advice is no one that ever
76 |75 |00:06:56 ~-~-> 00:07:03 |transitions from paper trading into Live account trading and or prop should ever
77 |76 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:08 |go right into mini contracts ever, because you're transitioning to a point
78 |77 |00:07:08 ~-~-> 00:07:13 |at which now risk means something. It doesn't mean as much when you're trading
79 |78 |00:07:13 ~-~-> 00:07:16 |with a demo account. Doesn't mean as much when you're tape reading or back
80 |79 |00:07:16 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |testing. That doesn't It doesn't cost you anything if you're wrong. Doesn't
81 |80 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:23 |cost you anything terms of pride or ego, and certainly doesn't cost you anything
82 |81 |00:07:23 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |in terms of monetary loss. So starting with the very minimum that's available
83 |82 |00:07:30 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |in terms of a futures trader, you have to start with the smallest, or least in
84 |83 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |terms of risk. And that is not a disadvantage. It is extremely
85 |84 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:45 |advantageous for you to apply this approach going into live trading. So
86 |85 |00:07:45 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |there's five central tenets I want to cover, and then we'll get into the nuts
87 |86 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:52 |of this lecture, because I don't want to be too long. So making money with Smart
88 |87 |00:07:52 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |Money concepts. 101, okay. The premise is this, you're going to settle in on
89 |88 |00:07:58 ~-~-> 00:08:04 |one market or one asset class, okay? And since I'm predominantly talking about
90 |89 |00:08:04 ~-~-> 00:08:09 |initially, but we're going to talk about forex two in this 2025 lecture series.
91 |90 |00:08:09 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |But I have to start here, because this is predominantly where I'm going to be
92 |91 |00:08:13 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |focusing my actual trading the futures market. Since I like trading index
93 |92 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:23 |futures, I have a choice. I could trade the Dow futures. I could trade the s, p
94 |93 |00:08:23 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |and or the NASDAQ. I prefer the NASDAQ, because of its volatility, it means it's
95 |94 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |a lot more wild when it moves, and because of that, it will afford me a lot
96 |95 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |of setups intraday. Okay, now I could trade less than one minute I can trade
97 |96 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:44 |one minute charts, I can trade five minute charts, a 15 minute chart, an
98 |97 |00:08:44 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |hourly chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart, but for the sake of using the
99 |98 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |information that was covered in 2024 and the core content, I'm going to try to
100 |99 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:09:01 |focus on one minute or higher. And the idea is to teach how to go into trying
101 |100 |00:09:01 ~-~-> 00:09:07 |to find a consistent, income driven model. It is not a get rich, it's not a
102 |101 |00:09:07 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |win a Robin's cup, it's not a competition model. All those things can
103 |102 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |be tweaked, and I'll talk about that before we close the lecture series out.
104 |103 |00:09:16 ~-~-> 00:09:20 |I don't know what point that will be, but sometime before I end it this year,
105 |104 |00:09:20 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |I'll talk about how you can tweak that and make it so it's Olympic level. But I
106 |105 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:28 |don't want anyone to go into this with the expectation that you're going in
107 |106 |00:09:28 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |there to try to make the maximum amount of money. You're not trying to be the
108 |107 |00:09:32 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |newest, highest paid out ICT, SMC, but don't want to call yourself an ICT
109 |108 |00:09:39 ~-~-> 00:09:45 |student record holder in terms of what you make in Prop. So it's meant to make
110 |109 |00:09:45 ~-~-> 00:09:51 |your ends meet. That means whatever bill that you have monthly, that's
111 |110 |00:09:52 ~-~-> 00:09:56 |a real world cost for you. It might be a insurance premium, it might be a car
112 |111 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:10:00 |note premium, it might be a rent or mortgage payment or a person. Percentage
113 |112 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:03 |of it, you should sit down and figure out what that is that you're going to
114 |113 |00:10:03 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |target as your realistic goal. It doesn't mean try to make all of your
115 |114 |00:10:06 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |bill money, because that's again, trying to place an Olympic level expectation on
116 |115 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:15 |yourself as a brand new trader transitioning from demo into real money
117 |116 |00:10:15 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |risk with live funds. So you want to have very, very soft roll out of what it
118 |117 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:25 |is that you're targeting. So by selling it on one market, and I'll be using
119 |118 |00:10:25 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |predominantly the Nasdaq futures contract, I will be starting with a
120 |119 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |micro account, or not account, but employing the micro contract, because I
121 |120 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |want you to see how, even though that's a very small fluctuation in terms of
122 |121 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:48 |monetary profit or loss, it starts to build up quickly. And that is,
123 |122 |00:10:48 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |unfortunately, something that is overlooked by everyone, because they all
124 |123 |00:10:51 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |see people trading 30 contracts, 15 contracts, multiple contracts of the
125 |124 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:01 |many, and they see what the payouts can be if those are consistently done
126 |125 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |correctly, but they don't understand the power of fear and greed while holding
127 |126 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |those positions, and that's why you don't see most people that trade that
128 |127 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |big size. They don't hold those positions very long, because it wears
129 |128 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |them out emotionally and psychologically. So I want to kind of
130 |129 |00:11:18 ~-~-> 00:11:23 |show you how to hold on to very small positions, and gradually transition to
131 |130 |00:11:23 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |being comfortable holding and letting the concepts do all the work for you.
132 |131 |00:11:28 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |But you have to grow in your understanding where there's now real
133 |132 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:37 |money risk, and that can't be learned from a book. You can't hear me talk
134 |133 |00:11:37 ~-~-> 00:11:40 |about it. You can hear other people talk about it. You have to experience it. And
135 |134 |00:11:40 ~-~-> 00:11:44 |so many of you that have tried to do this in the past or about to try to do
136 |135 |00:11:44 ~-~-> 00:11:50 |it, you're many times regretful for having done so, because you're trying to
137 |136 |00:11:50 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |do too large of risk, holding too big of positions or trading too often. Central
138 |137 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:03 |tenant number two is knowing how price tends to deliver based and by time, that
139 |138 |00:12:03 ~-~-> 00:12:07 |means by using an economic calendar and understanding time based delivery, that
140 |139 |00:12:07 ~-~-> 00:12:13 |means macros. That means certain aspects of the daily range. When do markets
141 |140 |00:12:13 ~-~-> 00:12:17 |usually run? When do markets usually consolidate? When do they likely reverse
142 |141 |00:12:17 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |those types of things? And I covered a lot of that in this YouTube channel, but
143 |142 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:26 |I'm going to show you the things that I'm pantomiming. That means I'm going
144 |143 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:32 |through the pretending aspect of a new trader using ICT concepts. So going
145 |144 |00:12:32 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |through this with the approach of this is what I liked in 2024 content, and I'm
146 |145 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:43 |going to apply this as the things I observed in my back testing that
147 |146 |00:12:43 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |resonated with me. It does not mean that these are the things that you should
148 |147 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:52 |adhere to or subscribe to. This is why I'm inviting you to go through the 2024
149 |148 |00:12:53 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |content in your own time, at your own pace, so that way, you can subscribe to
150 |149 |00:13:02 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |the things that mean much more to you, the things that I'm going to adopt here.
151 |150 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |It's not limited to this. You could add more to it. You can reduce it or replace
152 |151 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |some of the things. But the things I'm focusing on is not the only smart money
153 |152 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |concept, winning profile. That's not the only model that is going to yield
154 |153 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:24 |profitability. That's not the only thing that I can do as a trader. I can employ
155 |154 |00:13:24 ~-~-> 00:13:28 |everything I've ever taught and things I'm never going to teach you. But for
156 |155 |00:13:28 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |the sake of stripping it down to the brass tacks of this is you should be
157 |156 |00:13:32 ~-~-> 00:13:37 |looking for as a simplistic approach to building a model that you can carve out
158 |157 |00:13:37 ~-~-> 00:13:41 |and trade with the confidence that you don't have to have anything else. You
159 |158 |00:13:41 ~-~-> 00:13:44 |don't have to subscribe to a signal service, you don't have to buy
160 |159 |00:13:44 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |somebody's mentorship. You don't have to make payments to get into a discord
161 |160 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |room. You don't have to do any of those things, all those things that everyone
162 |161 |00:13:52 ~-~-> 00:13:55 |else is trying to rush to, try to make money and not understand fully what it
163 |162 |00:13:55 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |is they're doing because they're blindly following someone else. I don't want you
164 |163 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:04 |blindly following me, but I am going to share an approach on how you can build a
165 |164 |00:14:04 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |smart money concept model using the 2024 content and then use a real account
166 |165 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:15 |billion central tenant number three is understanding key pools of liquidity.
167 |166 |00:14:15 ~-~-> 00:14:22 |Okay, there it's a misnomer that you know, obviously common sense tells you
168 |167 |00:14:22 ~-~-> 00:14:25 |there's a sell stop and there's a buy stop, so therefore the market should do
169 |168 |00:14:25 ~-~-> 00:14:29 |this and do that, but understanding these key pools of liquidity and how
170 |169 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:35 |they're going to be engaged by price, that means why it should draw there. I'm
171 |170 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:41 |going to give you some details that have never been taught and why I observed
172 |171 |00:14:41 ~-~-> 00:14:47 |these things hypothetically in back testing, tape reading, demo trading, and
173 |172 |00:14:47 ~-~-> 00:14:51 |then finally transitioning. So it's that part of that pantomime I'm showing you
174 |173 |00:14:51 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |some of the things that I have had emails from students all around the
175 |174 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:14:59 |world give me feedback about the things that they adopted, and in those same
176 |175 |00:14:59 ~-~-> 00:15:03 |emails. They would say they were not interested in SMT divergence, they would
177 |176 |00:15:03 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |say, I'm not interested in order blocks, or I'm not interested in fair value
178 |177 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:11 |gaps, but I am interested in order blocks. Everybody has their own, I
179 |178 |00:15:11 ~-~-> 00:15:17 |guess, adoption of the things that made sense to them in what I taught. So there
180 |179 |00:15:17 ~-~-> 00:15:22 |isn't just one way of doing it, but I'm going to focus on the key pools of
181 |180 |00:15:22 ~-~-> 00:15:27 |liquidity while building this model out. Central tenant number four is
182 |181 |00:15:27 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |identifying inefficiencies in price. That means which ones really matter to
183 |182 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:37 |me in this model. So that way, it kind of helps you filter out the ones that
184 |183 |00:15:37 ~-~-> 00:15:40 |are going to be problematic for just the average person, because everyone thinks
185 |184 |00:15:40 ~-~-> 00:15:45 |that, you know, inefficiencies have always been traded by everybody in the
186 |185 |00:15:45 ~-~-> 00:15:51 |marketplace. And that's not true. It's actually a relatively new thing and an
187 |186 |00:15:51 ~-~-> 00:15:55 |observation and price action. Because if you look at the oldest texts, I'm
188 |187 |00:15:55 ~-~-> 00:16:03 |talking things that are 1980 1970s books about trading, you don't see any measure
189 |188 |00:16:03 ~-~-> 00:16:10 |of attention placed on inefficiencies in price. And you don't really see it in
190 |189 |00:16:10 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |even the white golf, the Gan the old heads of technical analysis and number
191 |190 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |five, finally, is utilizing simple points of entry and low hanging fruit,
192 |191 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |price objectives for targets, and then simply wash, rinse, repeat over and over
193 |192 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:32 |again, doing the same thing. So with those five central tenants now placed in
194 |193 |00:16:32 ~-~-> 00:16:36 |your hands, and the central focus of this discussion, I kind of like want to
195 |194 |00:16:36 ~-~-> 00:16:42 |flesh that out and show you what that looks like over what took place today,
196 |195 |00:16:42 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |and kind of like give you a small little sampling of what it is and how the model
197 |196 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |that I'll be fleshing out over the next 19 videos. They all won't be this long,
198 |197 |00:16:54 ~-~-> 00:16:59 |but I have to have the luxury of having a little bit of introduction. So that
199 |198 |00:16:59 ~-~-> 00:17:03 |way, it kind of like builds the premise of what it is that we're doing. It
200 |199 |00:17:03 ~-~-> 00:17:07 |frames the whole lecture series about what it is I'm focusing on. So that way,
201 |200 |00:17:07 ~-~-> 00:17:13 |you know what it is I'm doing. The model that I'm teaching works in forex. The
202 |201 |00:17:13 ~-~-> 00:17:16 |model I'm teaching works in currency futures. It works in just about
203 |202 |00:17:16 ~-~-> 00:17:21 |everything you can trade, but I can't co sign crypto, okay? So just know that I'm
204 |203 |00:17:21 ~-~-> 00:17:24 |not, I'm not trying to sell the idea that you should apply it to that asset
205 |204 |00:17:24 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |class, but everything else commodities, it all works there too. Okay, but what
206 |205 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |we're looking at here is the micro E Mini NASDAQ 100 index futures, or said
207 |206 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:40 |simply, it's the NASDAQ micro contract, meaning that every fluctuation in price
208 |207 |00:17:40 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |is worth $2 make it or break it coming out of your account. So what I'm showing
209 |208 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:17:51 |you here is the regular trading hours. And I taught this in the 2024 content,
210 |209 |00:17:51 ~-~-> 00:17:57 |and it was mentioned also in my paid mentorship, and actually mentioned it in
211 |210 |00:17:57 ~-~-> 00:18:04 |lectures a long time ago on Internet Relay Chat in 1996 when I actually
212 |211 |00:18:04 ~-~-> 00:18:09 |started teaching, when I really wasn't prepared to be teaching. But I taught a
213 |212 |00:18:09 ~-~-> 00:18:12 |lot of things about regular trading hours, which was Globex hours and such.
214 |213 |00:18:12 ~-~-> 00:18:15 |But we're looking at regular trading hours
215 |214 |00:18:16 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |the difference between where we settled previous day and then where we open up
216 |215 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:26 |at 930 that's what this is highlighting here. The benefit of having that
217 |216 |00:18:26 ~-~-> 00:18:33 |information, it gives us the opening range gap. Now I'm going to have very
218 |217 |00:18:33 ~-~-> 00:18:37 |specific lectures on how I'm going to use the opening range gap, what sets up
219 |218 |00:18:37 ~-~-> 00:18:40 |conditions that where it makes me interested in a trade, whether bullish
220 |219 |00:18:40 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |or bearish. That's not going to be covered in this video. This video, but
221 |220 |00:18:43 ~-~-> 00:18:48 |it will be its own individual video. I'm going to talk about the opening range,
222 |221 |00:18:48 ~-~-> 00:18:51 |which is the first 30 minutes of trading. I don't care what anybody else
223 |222 |00:18:51 ~-~-> 00:18:55 |says, that's the only range the algorithm worries about. Okay, then I'm
224 |223 |00:18:55 ~-~-> 00:19:02 |going to teach you the first 60 minutes dealing range, totally different, and
225 |224 |00:19:02 ~-~-> 00:19:06 |how to use that, and what that means, and how it can help you understand the
226 |225 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |power three, or the characteristics of a daily range, how I'm going to employ
227 |226 |00:19:11 ~-~-> 00:19:14 |that consistently, going back in, looking for the same things all the
228 |227 |00:19:14 ~-~-> 00:19:18 |time. If those rules are not met, I'm not trading on that, on that basis, then
229 |228 |00:19:18 ~-~-> 00:19:22 |I have to sit still. That's why we have a model. That's why we have to flesh out
230 |229 |00:19:22 ~-~-> 00:19:26 |some kind of trading plan that we're going to stick to and adhere to, and
231 |230 |00:19:26 ~-~-> 00:19:31 |that way, we will have measurable progress if we stick to rules that are
232 |231 |00:19:31 ~-~-> 00:19:36 |based on sound logic. Then it goes without saying that it's reasonable to
233 |232 |00:19:36 ~-~-> 00:19:40 |anticipate progress that's profitable. It doesn't mean every trade is going to
234 |233 |00:19:40 ~-~-> 00:19:44 |be a winning trade. It doesn't mean that it's going to be, you know, a lot more
235 |234 |00:19:44 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |wins than losing. It just means that the net result should be profitable, and in
236 |235 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |your first year, that's what you should be aiming for. It should not be to have
237 |236 |00:19:54 ~-~-> 00:20:00 |a windfall profitable year, and you'll never hear anyone that's being paid. It
238 |237 |00:20:00 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |as a mentor or teaching or selling books and courses. They're never going to tell
239 |238 |00:20:04 ~-~-> 00:20:09 |you that, because they want you sold on the idea that as long as you listen to
240 |239 |00:20:09 ~-~-> 00:20:12 |what they're saying or what they're teaching and what they're selling,
241 |240 |00:20:12 ~-~-> 00:20:16 |basically, is that you're going to get rich or make lots of money. And I can't
242 |241 |00:20:16 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |make that promise for you, and I'm certainly not doing it in here. Okay, so
243 |242 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |you're going to see losing trades. You're going to see me lose trades
244 |243 |00:20:23 ~-~-> 00:20:27 |because I'm going to use rules and I'm going to place myself in situations like
245 |244 |00:20:27 ~-~-> 00:20:32 |a new student that transitions from paper trading into live trading. You'll
246 |245 |00:20:32 ~-~-> 00:20:36 |see it. You're going to see it in a broker statement. You're going to see
247 |246 |00:20:36 ~-~-> 00:20:40 |the ebb and flow of equity rising and falling, and you're going to see the
248 |247 |00:20:40 ~-~-> 00:20:45 |benefits of using a micro contract initially, because imagine you yourself.
249 |248 |00:20:45 ~-~-> 00:20:48 |You know yourself, you're probably impatient, you're in a rush to go out
250 |249 |00:20:48 ~-~-> 00:20:53 |there and start making money. Don't you think that you'd feel a little
251 |250 |00:20:53 ~-~-> 00:20:57 |unsettled, scared, if the first trade you put on was a losing trade, you'd
252 |251 |00:20:57 ~-~-> 00:21:01 |have a lot of regrets, right? A lot of remorse, and you would have wished you
253 |252 |00:21:01 ~-~-> 00:21:06 |would have started on a smaller contract basis instead of doing two or three
254 |253 |00:21:06 ~-~-> 00:21:12 |minis because your prop firm or your account allowed you to do it. I'm trying
255 |254 |00:21:12 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |to give you a real, practical approach on how I believe that a student that
256 |255 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:24 |makes their decision to do this. I'm not suggesting all of you should do it. A
257 |256 |00:21:24 ~-~-> 00:21:29 |lot of this should never be done by any of you, because you're not prepared.
258 |257 |00:21:30 ~-~-> 00:21:34 |Eventually, when you are prepared, and you've proven to yourself by
259 |258 |00:21:34 ~-~-> 00:21:38 |consistently yielding results following a model, most of you probably don't even
260 |259 |00:21:38 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |stick to the same model. So I'm going to, I'm going to show you how, by doing
261 |260 |00:21:43 ~-~-> 00:21:46 |that, it gives you confidence that you don't have to worry about what ICT or
262 |261 |00:21:46 ~-~-> 00:21:50 |somebody else on the internet is doing, because their results, my results, are
263 |262 |00:21:50 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |not something that you can benefit from. You can't spend the money and you don't
264 |263 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:21:57 |have to sleep on the losses that we take either. So you have to have that
265 |264 |00:21:57 ~-~-> 00:22:01 |experience in your own hands. So by having revenue trading hours, it
266 |265 |00:22:01 ~-~-> 00:22:06 |benefits us by knowing where, if there is a opening range gap, and by knowing
267 |266 |00:22:06 ~-~-> 00:22:10 |where we settled the previous day, that's the benefit in it. So I want you
268 |267 |00:22:10 ~-~-> 00:22:20 |to see that for today, we had market trade higher here, and we have this
269 |268 |00:22:20 ~-~-> 00:22:29 |large gap that has traded since 930 this morning. So that opening price there and
270 |269 |00:22:29 ~-~-> 00:22:33 |the settlement price there, that difference is the opening range gap. Now
271 |270 |00:22:34 ~-~-> 00:22:40 |I'm going to show you also by dropping into a one minute chart. We're going to
272 |271 |00:22:40 ~-~-> 00:22:45 |scrub back here, and you want to do your measurements on the opening range gap
273 |272 |00:22:45 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |with the one minute chart in regular trading hours. So having the open and
274 |273 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:22:58 |close on this here is the same price, essentially. And this is the beginning
275 |274 |00:22:58 ~-~-> 00:23:05 |points of making money with Smart Money concepts, you have to have a frame of
276 |275 |00:23:05 ~-~-> 00:23:10 |reference. Got to know. Where do you start? Well, if you're day trading and
277 |276 |00:23:10 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |you're trading index futures, this is where you start. Is there a gap? We can
278 |277 |00:23:15 ~-~-> 00:23:21 |see that the market opens up at 930 we now have what is described by me as the
279 |278 |00:23:21 ~-~-> 00:23:27 |opening range gap. It's the regular trading hours difference between today's
280 |279 |00:23:27 ~-~-> 00:23:32 |opening and previous days, regular trading hours close. That's all it's
281 |280 |00:23:32 ~-~-> 00:23:43 |doing. Now when we do that, if the gap is larger, then, say, 20 handles. You
282 |281 |00:23:44 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |can start running your fib across it. And I'll let you see my settings,
283 |282 |00:23:47 ~-~-> 00:23:53 |because I know I get asked that a lot on Toggle this for now, these are the
284 |283 |00:23:53 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |settings. So this is the lower quadrant, upper quadrant, midway point, consequent
285 |284 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:02 |encroachment. And then you can highlight zero and one, which is going to give you
286 |285 |00:24:02 ~-~-> 00:24:06 |basically the same levels that I've already highlighted here with those
287 |286 |00:24:06 ~-~-> 00:24:14 |black lines. So it would look like that. Okay, so we have a premium gap opening,
288 |287 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:19 |and I'm not interested in trading long on that when it's such a large gap
289 |288 |00:24:19 ~-~-> 00:24:25 |opening like that. So I'm going to let it trade higher. I want to see where it
290 |289 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:28 |could likely trade to Okay, remember, we have to know how price is likely to
291 |290 |00:24:28 ~-~-> 00:24:35 |deliver and buy time. And we know it's Non Farm Payroll week, so we want to be
292 |291 |00:24:35 ~-~-> 00:24:40 |trading on Monday. But we have a large gap like this. We have a tendency to do
293 |292 |00:24:40 ~-~-> 00:24:48 |what keep going in the direction of the gap. But eventually, in the afternoon,
294 |293 |00:24:49 ~-~-> 00:24:54 |between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock, we could see a change or a shift in market
295 |294 |00:24:54 ~-~-> 00:24:59 |structure as we enter into that lunch hour, and then we could anticipate a
296 |295 |00:24:59 ~-~-> 00:25:06 |move back into. To that gap being the separation between previous day
297 |296 |00:25:06 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |settlement and the opening price. So the upper quadrant, that's a very important
298 |297 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |level. I think that that is a high probability draw on liquidity, if the
299 |298 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:23 |market eventually can show me that it wants to trade lower. So by knowing
300 |299 |00:25:23 ~-~-> 00:25:27 |where the market may likely draw to before it can reverse and trade lower,
301 |300 |00:25:28 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |those are important factors in what it is I'm trying to ascertain in price
302 |301 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:37 |action. So I sit on my hands. I'm not interested. I'm not interested in
303 |302 |00:25:37 ~-~-> 00:25:41 |trading this long, but I'm also not trying to pick the top either. I want to
304 |303 |00:25:41 ~-~-> 00:25:48 |see how the market can produce a turn lower. I don't need to pick the top in
305 |304 |00:25:48 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |that. And I want to see the market provided time based delivery. That's a
306 |305 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:25:58 |macro. And I'll talk about macros in this lecture series, and how I'm going
307 |306 |00:25:58 ~-~-> 00:26:03 |to employ them with this model. It is not again, it's not the panacea. It's
308 |307 |00:26:03 ~-~-> 00:26:08 |not the be all, end all, with macros. This is how I arrived at a model. Using
309 |308 |00:26:08 ~-~-> 00:26:11 |them. You can make lots of different models. I could make a model every
310 |309 |00:26:11 ~-~-> 00:26:15 |single day using the macros for 365 days, and they would never be the same
311 |310 |00:26:15 ~-~-> 00:26:21 |model. Okay? It's it provides you such a wonderful tapestry of applying this
312 |311 |00:26:21 ~-~-> 00:26:24 |information on an individual and unique basis, nobody's trading model is going
313 |312 |00:26:24 ~-~-> 00:26:28 |to be the same. And it doesn't mean that you can't be profitable. All of you can
314 |313 |00:26:28 ~-~-> 00:26:31 |be profitable with with a different model, using what I've already taught in
315 |314 |00:26:31 ~-~-> 00:26:36 |Smart Money concepts. So since we have the opening range gap here defined, and
316 |315 |00:26:36 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |we have all the gradient levels here, obviously moving half gap, which would
317 |316 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:46 |be much more significant of a move. I don't require that what's the highest
318 |317 |00:26:46 ~-~-> 00:26:52 |probability direction that it's likely to trade to go below this low, because
319 |318 |00:26:52 ~-~-> 00:26:56 |that's the lowest low of the day at the New START of regular trading hours. That
320 |319 |00:26:56 ~-~-> 00:27:04 |means 930 today, and then the next quadrant is here. So 21,006 72 even to
321 |320 |00:27:04 ~-~-> 00:27:12 |me, is high probability. It means it's likely to draw to this low and as much
322 |321 |00:27:12 ~-~-> 00:27:15 |as that level here, and it could trade down to half. But I'm not going to
323 |322 |00:27:15 ~-~-> 00:27:19 |require that. So what's low hanging fruit objective, eventually trading down
324 |323 |00:27:19 ~-~-> 00:27:25 |here? What's high probability, draw the upper quadrant using the opening range
325 |324 |00:27:25 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |gap, and I'll talk more about it in its own individual video. But for here, it's
326 |325 |00:27:30 ~-~-> 00:27:33 |accomplished a method. So now what we're going to do is we're going to go up to a
327 |326 |00:27:33 ~-~-> 00:27:43 |60 minute chart, and I want you to look at how we have the data that's shown
328 |327 |00:27:43 ~-~-> 00:27:49 |here. This is the opening range gap on the 60 minute chart. Again, register
329 |328 |00:27:49 ~-~-> 00:27:55 |trading hours. If you look at over here, we have this drop from high down to that
330 |329 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:28:01 |low. This is a lot of gaps in here, so I'm going to remove all that mess in
331 |330 |00:28:01 ~-~-> 00:28:07 |noise and go into electronic trading hours, and we're going to clean up that
332 |331 |00:28:07 ~-~-> 00:28:12 |range. So now I can go and look at this same thing here, so we have this high
333 |332 |00:28:14 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |and this low. So this was the old range, okay, or old dealing range, if I note
334 |333 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |this, like this
335 |334 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:38 |and this low here, when the market broke below this low here there, the market
336 |335 |00:28:38 ~-~-> 00:28:42 |was bearish. Now, obviously, I know there's going to be some very cynical
337 |336 |00:28:42 ~-~-> 00:28:47 |people that I'm never going to see the comment from. They're going to say it's
338 |337 |00:28:47 ~-~-> 00:28:51 |obvious, it's hindsight, but you have to do this stuff, impact testing, studying
339 |338 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:55 |it, get the information, see it. Get used to seeing the pattern, get used to
340 |339 |00:28:55 ~-~-> 00:28:58 |seeing the order flow, and then how the market runs for liquidity. But we can
341 |340 |00:28:58 ~-~-> 00:29:03 |see how it was bearish here, and the market creates a low, lower low, lower
342 |341 |00:29:03 ~-~-> 00:29:06 |low, and finally, does, in fact, trade below that low here. So what was resting
343 |342 |00:29:06 ~-~-> 00:29:12 |below that low? It's sell side. So because we are not demanding that the
344 |343 |00:29:12 ~-~-> 00:29:17 |market created a low or long term or enemy a term low here to trade back
345 |344 |00:29:17 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |above this high, we don't need to have that high broken. So all I need to know
346 |345 |00:29:22 ~-~-> 00:29:28 |is, where is premium, where's discount, relative to now this high and this low.
347 |346 |00:29:28 ~-~-> 00:29:31 |Why am I referring to those two reference points? Now? Because this
348 |347 |00:29:31 ~-~-> 00:29:39 |range was attacked and traded outside of by these two lows here, and it's
349 |348 |00:29:39 ~-~-> 00:29:43 |reasonable see the price, I want to come back up, take out this high. What does
350 |349 |00:29:43 ~-~-> 00:29:49 |this high form low, I lower low. That takes liquidity. That's a high
351 |350 |00:29:49 ~-~-> 00:29:54 |probability. ICT, smart money concept breaker. It's a bullish breaker. And you
352 |351 |00:29:54 ~-~-> 00:29:59 |can see that's occurring right there trades higher and all of these buy side.
353 |352 |00:30:00 ~-~-> 00:30:05 |It could be pools here, here, here, and then this one here has the added benefit
354 |353 |00:30:05 ~-~-> 00:30:09 |of what to the left of it an inefficiency in the form of a sell side
355 |354 |00:30:09 ~-~-> 00:30:13 |imbalance, buy side inefficiency. So we can take this little area here and zoom
356 |355 |00:30:13 ~-~-> 00:30:21 |in right there. So it's this candle, this candle and this candle. So if we
357 |356 |00:30:21 ~-~-> 00:30:26 |highlight that this price,
358 |357 |00:30:31 ~-~-> 00:30:45 |and we'll make it like that, it's that way next a little bit. So we have this
359 |358 |00:30:45 ~-~-> 00:30:55 |closing price to this opening price, this closing price is slightly higher
360 |359 |00:30:55 ~-~-> 00:30:58 |than that one. That's why I'm using it, because this is a small, little, tiny
361 |360 |00:30:58 ~-~-> 00:31:02 |volume of balance. If you look at the closing price, which I don't show here.
362 |361 |00:31:02 ~-~-> 00:31:04 |Let me add that now apologize.
363 |362 |00:31:10 ~-~-> 00:31:12 |The closing price here is
364 |363 |00:31:19 ~-~-> 00:31:30 |21,006 95.75 and the opening price here is 21,006 94.75 so there's a difference
365 |364 |00:31:30 ~-~-> 00:31:34 |of one handle, but that's enough to create a volume of balance. So that's
366 |365 |00:31:34 ~-~-> 00:31:39 |why we're using this opening price and not the wick. Okay, so otherwise, if
367 |366 |00:31:39 ~-~-> 00:31:45 |these two, if this closing price was over lapping where this price opened, or
368 |367 |00:31:45 ~-~-> 00:31:49 |candlestick opened, there wouldn't be a volume imbalance. So because there is
369 |368 |00:31:49 ~-~-> 00:31:54 |one, there's a volume imbalance that we have to use this candlesticks opening.
370 |369 |00:31:55 ~-~-> 00:31:59 |Otherwise, if this was lower than this candlesticks opening, it would be
371 |370 |00:31:59 ~-~-> 00:32:05 |resting on this candles, wick high. Same thing here. This candlesticks closing
372 |371 |00:32:05 ~-~-> 00:32:11 |price comes in at 21,008 94 even you see that here, and this candlesticks open is
373 |372 |00:32:11 ~-~-> 00:32:19 |what, 21,008 93.75 so it's one quarter of a point, okay, or one tick. So
374 |373 |00:32:19 ~-~-> 00:32:23 |there's a separation. So we have to anchor the self centered balance by
375 |374 |00:32:23 ~-~-> 00:32:29 |sound efficiencies, labeling or overlay with the Rectangle tool on this
376 |375 |00:32:29 ~-~-> 00:32:34 |candlestick closing price. If this candlesticks closing price was lower
377 |376 |00:32:34 ~-~-> 00:32:38 |than this candlesticks open, we would simply use this candlesticks low on the
378 |377 |00:32:38 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |wick. So that way. Now you understand how I'm going to use that information
379 |378 |00:32:43 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |when I'm looking at cities and buy side of balance, cell significance. This is
380 |379 |00:32:48 ~-~-> 00:32:52 |all of my inefficiencies are defined like that. Okay, by doing this, you're
381 |380 |00:32:52 ~-~-> 00:32:56 |going to get the algorithmic precision of where consequent encroachment is, and
382 |381 |00:32:56 ~-~-> 00:33:00 |you'll see what I mean in a moment. So I'm going to take this and highlight the
383 |382 |00:33:00 ~-~-> 00:33:06 |extend to right, and that way, when we draw back out to this perspective,
384 |383 |00:33:06 ~-~-> 00:33:12 |everything will be clear. So now we have several things in reference. Now we have
385 |384 |00:33:12 ~-~-> 00:33:17 |this inefficiency here that is inside of a premium. How do I know that? Well, we
386 |385 |00:33:17 ~-~-> 00:33:23 |have this range low and this range high. So the market has traded between this
387 |386 |00:33:23 ~-~-> 00:33:31 |range high, down to this low. This level here defines equilibrium, and anything
388 |387 |00:33:31 ~-~-> 00:33:36 |at that price or higher is a premium. That means it's expensive. It's a target
389 |388 |00:33:36 ~-~-> 00:33:39 |for when you're bullish, or it's a place at which you want to use the sell short
390 |389 |00:33:39 ~-~-> 00:33:45 |at at this price or lower, it's discount. That means it's a target for
391 |390 |00:33:45 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |anything that's short or it's a place to go long when you want to be bullish.
392 |391 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:55 |Well, since the market has worked off a bullish breaker here, it trades up. I'm
393 |392 |00:33:55 ~-~-> 00:33:59 |not interested in going along here. Why? Because we have a large opening range
394 |393 |00:33:59 ~-~-> 00:34:07 |gap at 930 opening. So I don't want to be in this market doing anything long,
395 |394 |00:34:07 ~-~-> 00:34:15 |because I want to see how it's going to trade to this inefficiency here. So we
396 |395 |00:34:15 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |have the upper quadrant, which is right around what optimal trade entry would
397 |396 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |be. Remember the old flagship idea that I taught on this YouTube channel. So the
398 |397 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:27 |market trades up, hits that and then it starts to roll over. And then what I
399 |398 |00:34:27 ~-~-> 00:34:32 |want to see is, does the market in fact attack after 930 is opening? Does it
400 |399 |00:34:32 ~-~-> 00:34:36 |attack the upper quadrant this level here, which is part of the opening range
401 |400 |00:34:36 ~-~-> 00:34:41 |gap? So now with this frame of reference, we know that the market did,
402 |401 |00:34:41 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |in fact, trade up into a premium. We completely overlapped this sell side of
403 |402 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:48 |balance, buy side and efficiency. So efficient delivery has been given this
404 |403 |00:34:48 ~-~-> 00:34:53 |one single can down. What's it lacking? Overlapping price delivery that's on the
405 |404 |00:34:53 ~-~-> 00:34:58 |upside. In other words, buy side is offered to the marketplace. That means a
406 |405 |00:34:58 ~-~-> 00:35:04 |candle or candle. Plural has overlapped this entire range that's highlighted in
407 |406 |00:35:04 ~-~-> 00:35:09 |pink. We see that happening here. See that? And then we have a small little
408 |407 |00:35:09 ~-~-> 00:35:13 |wick outside of it, and then we break lower. And then that it does, in fact,
409 |408 |00:35:13 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |trade to the upper quadrant. It does not trade to the consequent encroachment, or
410 |409 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |middle of the opening range gap, which, again, is defined by these two black
411 |410 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:24 |lines here. So now we're going to drop into a one minute chart and flesh this
412 |411 |00:35:24 ~-~-> 00:35:36 |out. If you look at what we've seen today, initially, at 930 we see the
413 |412 |00:35:36 ~-~-> 00:35:41 |market. Well, at 916 it dives down and does, in fact, trade to the upper
414 |413 |00:35:41 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |quadrant of the opening range gap level. But we don't know what that level is the
415 |414 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:52 |upper quadrant yet, because we have to have first the opening bell at 930 so
416 |415 |00:35:52 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |that means, at this candlestick, right here, at 930 you can see that that
417 |416 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:00 |opening price is what's it's laying on top of. So that's your opening price at
418 |417 |00:36:00 ~-~-> 00:36:11 |930 right there. Okay, so this upper quadrant level is not salient at this
419 |418 |00:36:11 ~-~-> 00:36:15 |moment here. It just so happens that it does, in fact, trade down in there. Look
420 |419 |00:36:15 ~-~-> 00:36:19 |at the bodies respecting that level as well. So I think that's a little
421 |420 |00:36:19 ~-~-> 00:36:23 |algorithmic, but it's outside the scope of this discussion. At this point here,
422 |421 |00:36:23 ~-~-> 00:36:30 |at 930 then we do, actually do have the opening range gap defined by that
423 |422 |00:36:30 ~-~-> 00:36:35 |opening price down to the previous day's settlement price. And then we have the
424 |423 |00:36:35 ~-~-> 00:36:39 |lower quadrant consequent encroachment and the upper quadrant level, and then
425 |424 |00:36:39 ~-~-> 00:36:45 |the opening price at 930 so this is, in in its entirety, the opening range gap.
426 |425 |00:36:45 ~-~-> 00:36:50 |So as I defined earlier, I'm only interested because he has such a large
427 |426 |00:36:50 ~-~-> 00:36:54 |opening gap. It's several 100 handles. That means it could potentially keep
428 |427 |00:36:54 ~-~-> 00:36:59 |trading higher in that direction. So you got to be real careful. It's too big of
429 |428 |00:36:59 ~-~-> 00:37:06 |a gap. So I'm going to elect to not do anything by going long and chasing the
430 |429 |00:37:06 ~-~-> 00:37:11 |direction of the gap. And I'm also not looking to sell short initially just to
431 |430 |00:37:11 ~-~-> 00:37:15 |see it go down to the opening range gap and trade into the opening portion of
432 |431 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |it. I have to defer that interest until later on. What constitutes that. That
433 |432 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:28 |means we have to wait for it to trade up into that 60 minute imbalance. So it
434 |433 |00:37:28 ~-~-> 00:37:32 |does, in fact, trade up into it there. Look at the bodies respecting it. This
435 |434 |00:37:32 ~-~-> 00:37:38 |is a one minute chart, that small little deviation outside of that city. And we
436 |435 |00:37:38 ~-~-> 00:37:42 |spend some time here at the high end of it, and we start to roll over. You can
437 |436 |00:37:42 ~-~-> 00:37:47 |see how trading into the lunch hour. We're getting a little bit of a
438 |437 |00:37:47 ~-~-> 00:37:51 |retracement. Notice the halfway point. This is constant consequence
439 |438 |00:37:51 ~-~-> 00:37:56 |encroachment of this pink shaded one hour inefficiency. It's in a premium
440 |439 |00:37:56 ~-~-> 00:38:01 |relative to the large one hour range. And now we're starting to work that
441 |440 |00:38:01 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |level here. It's that midpoint of this pink shaded area. And they work through
442 |441 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:12 |lunch like this. And then at 130 we start looking for the pm session trade.
443 |442 |00:38:13 ~-~-> 00:38:19 |Now I have the market trading to the low end of that one hour city. That's that
444 |443 |00:38:19 ~-~-> 00:38:23 |pink shaded area here. So I've already seen it trade down below the midpoint,
445 |444 |00:38:23 ~-~-> 00:38:27 |and then it traded back up to it and look at the bodies respecting it. So is
446 |445 |00:38:27 ~-~-> 00:38:31 |it indicating at that time that the market is wanting to explore anything
447 |446 |00:38:31 ~-~-> 00:38:39 |higher? No. And at 130 We're now entering algorithmically, the pm stress
448 |447 |00:38:39 ~-~-> 00:38:43 |or the afternoon trading. So what do we have at this point? We have the market
449 |448 |00:38:43 ~-~-> 00:38:51 |trading up to and completing the full delivery to that 60 minute sell side,
450 |449 |00:38:51 ~-~-> 00:38:54 |and balance by sudden efficiency. Then we want to watch and see, does the
451 |450 |00:38:54 ~-~-> 00:38:59 |market does it move lower? It does. Does it breach the midpoint of that
452 |451 |00:38:59 ~-~-> 00:39:03 |inefficiency? It does. Once it does that, does it show a willingness? These
453 |452 |00:39:03 ~-~-> 00:39:07 |are all algorithmic signatures. These are, these are indications that the
454 |453 |00:39:07 ~-~-> 00:39:11 |algorithm that's offering price, it's not the buying and selling pressure that
455 |454 |00:39:11 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |the algorithm is offering. The signatures proving okay, like flashing a
456 |455 |00:39:17 ~-~-> 00:39:21 |neon sign, like a billboard sign on a highway, that this thing is going to go
457 |456 |00:39:21 ~-~-> 00:39:26 |lower. Don't anticipate anything in the upper range of this now, because it's
458 |457 |00:39:26 ~-~-> 00:39:30 |already been fulfilled by this run here. And look how much time it's spent up
459 |458 |00:39:30 ~-~-> 00:39:37 |there. So now at 130 the gears have now changed to now looking for the market to
460 |459 |00:39:37 ~-~-> 00:39:42 |move lower. And now I have a trade stage where I can now engage price action, but
461 |460 |00:39:42 ~-~-> 00:39:46 |I don't want to just simply go into it willy nilly. That means I want to go in
462 |461 |00:39:46 ~-~-> 00:39:52 |with something that's algorithmically timed by a macro. I want to target
463 |462 |00:39:52 ~-~-> 00:39:58 |liquidity. I want to have a very simple entry strategy, and I want to know where
464 |463 |00:39:58 ~-~-> 00:40:03 |it's likely to draw to. And. And afford myself the opportunity to catch a runner
465 |464 |00:40:03 ~-~-> 00:40:07 |if it wants to trade down to the midpoint of the gap or consequent
466 |465 |00:40:07 ~-~-> 00:40:12 |encroachment, which is that blue line here. So I want to frame an idea around
467 |466 |00:40:12 ~-~-> 00:40:17 |all those things. So let's take a look at that now, right? So here we have the
468 |467 |00:40:17 ~-~-> 00:40:26 |market trained in on the 250 to 310 macro time we're trading near the low of
469 |468 |00:40:26 ~-~-> 00:40:32 |that 60 minute city. And here's that upper quadrant level on the opening
470 |469 |00:40:32 ~-~-> 00:40:35 |range gap. And if I scrunch this up a little bit more, you'll see that the 50%
471 |470 |00:40:35 ~-~-> 00:40:39 |level of the opening range gap is down here. So that is a wild card. I don't
472 |471 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:43 |know. You don't know. No one knows if it's going to trade down there. Down
473 |472 |00:40:43 ~-~-> 00:40:46 |there, but we do have a high degree of probability that it's likely to draw to
474 |473 |00:40:46 ~-~-> 00:40:51 |that upper quadrant level. So that's what I'm focusing on in the trade idea.
475 |474 |00:40:52 ~-~-> 00:40:57 |This candlestick we opened lower here the very next one minute candle, I want
476 |475 |00:40:57 ~-~-> 00:41:02 |to be short, so when it opens, I want to use that open, and anything that trades
477 |476 |00:41:02 ~-~-> 00:41:06 |back into this candlesticks, body or wick. So you can look at the low of that
478 |477 |00:41:06 ~-~-> 00:41:10 |candlestick there. It's at 21,007 10.50
479 |478 |00:41:12 ~-~-> 00:41:17 |and by using that as a immediate rebalance, this next candle here we
480 |479 |00:41:17 ~-~-> 00:41:24 |open, we trade up a little bit the high that candle comes in at 12.50 and I only
481 |480 |00:41:24 ~-~-> 00:41:32 |had basically 1.25 separation between the two. There was literally no drawdown
482 |481 |00:41:32 ~-~-> 00:41:37 |at all from the entry, though. It trades up to it hits the immediate rebalance
483 |482 |00:41:37 ~-~-> 00:41:42 |and then delivers lower. So I have immediate feedback. I'm on one side. I'm
484 |483 |00:41:42 ~-~-> 00:41:45 |targeting this level down here, but I don't want to just simply take profits
485 |484 |00:41:45 ~-~-> 00:41:50 |as it hits that level. I want to try to get to that level and lower, because I
486 |485 |00:41:50 ~-~-> 00:41:55 |might get lucky and see it trade to half the opening range gap. So I want to
487 |486 |00:41:55 ~-~-> 00:41:58 |trade with this and watch how it delivers and move away from this 60
488 |487 |00:41:58 ~-~-> 00:42:02 |minute cities low, which it does aggressively here. We have a little bit
489 |488 |00:42:02 ~-~-> 00:42:06 |of retracement back and forth in here. And finally, we have a little bit of on
490 |489 |00:42:06 ~-~-> 00:42:09 |this candlestick. When it was breaking lower, I thought that we were going to
491 |490 |00:42:09 ~-~-> 00:42:12 |have a pretty good chance of getting to that consequent encroachment of the
492 |491 |00:42:12 ~-~-> 00:42:19 |opening range gap. So what I did was I rolled the stop to 21,006, 66.50, and
493 |492 |00:42:19 ~-~-> 00:42:23 |you can see that it does, in fact, hit that it was based on being in the upper
494 |493 |00:42:23 ~-~-> 00:42:26 |portion of this body. So I felt if it did that, it probably would have rounded
495 |494 |00:42:26 ~-~-> 00:42:32 |this low out and then moved back up into this area and maybe trade back up into
496 |495 |00:42:32 ~-~-> 00:42:36 |the 60 minute city. And in fact, that's what you see here. So there's the entry,
497 |496 |00:42:36 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |I'm sorry, the exit being stopped out. And here's the entry point there, using
498 |497 |00:42:41 ~-~-> 00:42:46 |the immediate rebalance. Okay, so those are concepts that were taught in 2024
499 |498 |00:42:47 ~-~-> 00:42:51 |also they were taught in core content. So it's all throughout this Youtube
500 |499 |00:42:51 ~-~-> 00:42:59 |channel. No, you don't find that in my goth or game or emails. So if I had to
501 |500 |00:42:59 ~-~-> 00:43:02 |toss that out, it couldn't go without saying it could you No, I can't. I'm
502 |501 |00:43:02 ~-~-> 00:43:07 |sorry, but that's just the truth. Okay, so the difference is that there is about
503 |502 |00:43:08 ~-~-> 00:43:17 |50 handles or so between the entry point here and down there. Now it's done with
504 |503 |00:43:17 ~-~-> 00:43:22 |one contract. That is that it's done with a micro now, when you first start
505 |504 |00:43:22 ~-~-> 00:43:26 |trading, you might not look at this and think, wow, that's that's not a lot of
506 |505 |00:43:26 ~-~-> 00:43:31 |money. But what this does is it gives you the confidence that you can, number
507 |506 |00:43:31 ~-~-> 00:43:35 |one, see the price action deliver. You have some measure of precision. You
508 |507 |00:43:35 ~-~-> 00:43:38 |don't need it to be perfect. You don't need to be surgical, but you have
509 |508 |00:43:38 ~-~-> 00:43:44 |something that is lending well to the discovery of what you've seen on this
510 |509 |00:43:44 ~-~-> 00:43:47 |YouTube channel, and then put it into practice. And you can make a model out
511 |510 |00:43:47 ~-~-> 00:43:51 |of it. And then we get into the last trading hour of the day, in regular
512 |511 |00:43:51 ~-~-> 00:43:55 |trading hours, which is three o'clock, this thing could do what it could start
513 |512 |00:43:55 ~-~-> 00:44:00 |to draw back up into the range and as exactly what it did. So watching from
514 |513 |00:44:00 ~-~-> 00:44:03 |that point on here, you can see that it does, in fact, trade higher and moves in
515 |514 |00:44:03 ~-~-> 00:44:06 |consolidation and eventually trades up into
516 |515 |00:44:13 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |higher portions of that city and then back down and outside of it once more,
517 |516 |00:44:18 ~-~-> 00:44:21 |hitting that upper quadrant of the opening range, gap level. One more time,
518 |517 |00:44:21 ~-~-> 00:44:23 |look at the reaction off that you don't that. You don't think that's
519 |518 |00:44:23 ~-~-> 00:44:34 |algorithmic. Price comes right back up trades into the settlement at 414, again
520 |519 |00:44:34 ~-~-> 00:44:42 |in an upper portion, right here, almost back to consequent encouragement of that
521 |520 |00:44:42 ~-~-> 00:44:51 |city on the 60 minute chart. So knowing when to trade the morning session versus
522 |521 |00:44:51 ~-~-> 00:44:55 |knowing when to trade the pm session, when there's a very, very large gap
523 |522 |00:44:55 ~-~-> 00:45:00 |opening, I'm not terribly excited about that. I kind of like want to. It and
524 |523 |00:45:00 ~-~-> 00:45:05 |wait, and then if I know it's likely to draw into that opening range gap. And
525 |524 |00:45:05 ~-~-> 00:45:09 |there's times where, based on what the market does in the morning session, the
526 |525 |00:45:09 ~-~-> 00:45:13 |first 60 minutes of trading, which I'll have a video entirely about, that it'll
527 |526 |00:45:13 ~-~-> 00:45:17 |give me insights about whether I sit on my hands and do nothing, or I wait for a
528 |527 |00:45:17 ~-~-> 00:45:22 |reversal and then I play after the reversals done, proven itself, and kind
529 |528 |00:45:22 ~-~-> 00:45:27 |of tips its hand. I don't want to kind of convey the idea that you should be in
530 |529 |00:45:27 ~-~-> 00:45:31 |here trying to capture the highs and lows and back and forth, up down. That's
531 |530 |00:45:31 ~-~-> 00:45:36 |what the 33 years of experience Michael can do. In the beginning. You're not
532 |531 |00:45:36 ~-~-> 00:45:40 |going to have that level of experience. So it's not reasonable or practical for
533 |532 |00:45:40 ~-~-> 00:45:44 |me to try to inspire you to do that. If I'm teaching you and I'm telling you,
534 |533 |00:45:44 ~-~-> 00:45:47 |you shouldn't try to do that initially, and then you shouldn't either, because
535 |534 |00:45:47 ~-~-> 00:45:52 |you're acting on infancy in terms of experience, and it's not meant to be
536 |535 |00:45:52 ~-~-> 00:45:56 |derogatory or talk down to you. It just means that we're talking practical. And
537 |536 |00:45:57 ~-~-> 00:46:00 |if we're going to transition from demo trading and back testing and tape
538 |537 |00:46:00 ~-~-> 00:46:03 |reading and all that to now we're dealing with real risk. And if you
539 |538 |00:46:03 ~-~-> 00:46:07 |haven't noticed, yes, that's a amp Live account right there. And this is
540 |539 |00:46:07 ~-~-> 00:46:12 |actually a trade that my son and I worked with, and I walked him through
541 |540 |00:46:12 ~-~-> 00:46:16 |it, and this is what it looks like he pushed the button, clearly, but it was
542 |541 |00:46:16 ~-~-> 00:46:19 |based on the logic that I shared with them, so that way you understand the
543 |542 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:26 |mechanics of what's here? So again, live account, live execution, real world
544 |543 |00:46:26 ~-~-> 00:46:30 |trade with real risk. And going back to it, you might ask yourself, you know,
545 |544 |00:46:31 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |what would a trade like that require in terms of a stop loss? And I don't want
546 |545 |00:46:37 ~-~-> 00:46:43 |Caleb to have more risk than what 15 handles on this with a micro so what
547 |546 |00:46:43 ~-~-> 00:46:50 |does that translate in terms of monetary risk? It's only $30 so let me ask you a
548 |547 |00:46:50 ~-~-> 00:46:58 |question. If you were willing to risk $30 but you could make $90 or more, is
549 |548 |00:46:58 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |that a reasonable risk to reward three to one, you're risking $1 to make $3 so
550 |549 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:12 |you can, you can be wrong a couple times in a series of trades and still be net
551 |550 |00:47:12 ~-~-> 00:47:17 |profitable on the week, the month or the year. If you can model that eventually
552 |551 |00:47:17 ~-~-> 00:47:21 |you want to try to do things that allow for a five to one or more, but you're
553 |552 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:26 |going to need a little bit more insight and more execution and experience before
554 |553 |00:47:26 ~-~-> 00:47:30 |you can do those types of things. So I could start with one to one, but I know
555 |554 |00:47:30 ~-~-> 00:47:33 |that that's going to invite a whole lot more trading ideas for some of you that
556 |555 |00:47:33 ~-~-> 00:47:37 |are going to try to mimic and parrot what it is I'm doing in this model, and
557 |556 |00:47:37 ~-~-> 00:47:41 |I'm not trying to inspire you to copy me. So that's why none of the trades are
558 |557 |00:47:41 ~-~-> 00:47:44 |going to be a live stream type thing, because I don't want you to hurt
559 |558 |00:47:44 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |yourself. I'm not infallible, you know, I have a very large audience, and it is
560 |559 |00:47:51 ~-~-> 00:47:56 |basically inviting, you know, more liquidity to pull around a specific
561 |560 |00:47:56 ~-~-> 00:48:02 |price level. And it's very simple to reprice to that and not show any real
562 |561 |00:48:02 ~-~-> 00:48:07 |benefit of following that idea, because if everybody's dog piling in on the same
563 |562 |00:48:07 ~-~-> 00:48:11 |absolute price level, if I'm live streaming, and for the people that don't
564 |563 |00:48:11 ~-~-> 00:48:14 |know how to trade or don't know how to markets, actually book price, this
565 |564 |00:48:14 ~-~-> 00:48:18 |doesn't sound normal to them. It sounds like an excuse. But again, you're seeing
566 |565 |00:48:18 ~-~-> 00:48:22 |broker statements. You're seeing a Live account down here. These are all things
567 |566 |00:48:22 ~-~-> 00:48:28 |that you can't fake. Okay? It's actually something that I want you to appreciate,
568 |567 |00:48:28 ~-~-> 00:48:31 |because I don't have to do these things like I could just sail off into the
569 |568 |00:48:31 ~-~-> 00:48:38 |sunset and be done. I mean, I really can, but to show you, you how the actual
570 |569 |00:48:38 ~-~-> 00:48:47 |transition should be done from back testing to logging to forward testing
571 |570 |00:48:47 ~-~-> 00:48:51 |and demo trading, and then finally making the decision to move from those
572 |571 |00:48:51 ~-~-> 00:48:58 |risk free environments to now allowing and affording yourself actual risk, but
573 |572 |00:48:58 ~-~-> 00:49:01 |then also managing that risk appropriately so that way you're not
574 |573 |00:49:01 ~-~-> 00:49:08 |trying to do much more than that that's required. So basically getting in with a
575 |574 |00:49:09 ~-~-> 00:49:21 |entry point at 711.25 your stock will also be 71. 26.25, so that is a 15
576 |575 |00:49:21 ~-~-> 00:49:33 |handle stop. So that is up here, right there. Okay, so you can see it didn't
577 |576 |00:49:33 ~-~-> 00:49:36 |even have any interest in getting out to that point. Okay. Does that mean every
578 |577 |00:49:36 ~-~-> 00:49:41 |trade is going to be a 15 handle stop? No, it might be smaller, but because of
579 |578 |00:49:41 ~-~-> 00:49:49 |the nature of today, we had the election certification today, we had, you know,
580 |579 |00:49:50 ~-~-> 00:49:53 |all the other things that's going on. So it's just reasonable. It was practical
581 |580 |00:49:53 ~-~-> 00:49:58 |for me to suggest to Caleb that he uses a 15 handle stop loss here, and then to
582 |581 |00:49:58 ~-~-> 00:50:02 |target that upper quadrant. The opening range gap, and then see if he could
583 |582 |00:50:02 ~-~-> 00:50:06 |trade lower. He could have had an exit down here that would have been much more
584 |583 |00:50:06 ~-~-> 00:50:12 |favorable. But we discussed it, and he agreed that let's just see if it can
585 |584 |00:50:12 ~-~-> 00:50:15 |trade down into that consequent encroachment. If it stops him out, it
586 |585 |00:50:15 ~-~-> 00:50:21 |doesn't matter. It's still about 50 handles or so, and that is a really good
587 |586 |00:50:22 ~-~-> 00:50:28 |return. It's it's a really good return for the risk that was implemented. And
588 |587 |00:50:28 ~-~-> 00:50:33 |if you can try to target trades where you're risking three to one or four to
589 |588 |00:50:33 ~-~-> 00:50:37 |one or five to one or higher, you're not going to get as many trades as you could
590 |589 |00:50:37 ~-~-> 00:50:41 |if you were trading 10 for 10. You can do that all day long when you know
591 |590 |00:50:41 ~-~-> 00:50:47 |you're doing but again, this lecture series is based on the the new student
592 |591 |00:50:47 ~-~-> 00:50:53 |transitioning to live funds. How might that occur? And it's not an instruction
593 |592 |00:50:53 ~-~-> 00:50:57 |manual for you to copy this. I'm not trying. I'm not telling you to do this
594 |593 |00:50:57 ~-~-> 00:51:01 |and you're going to make money. I'm showing you as a an example, nothing
595 |594 |00:51:01 ~-~-> 00:51:07 |more, just simply an example of how it could be done and how, using the ideas
596 |595 |00:51:07 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |that were taught in 24 that that mentorship, I gave you a lot of
597 |596 |00:51:12 ~-~-> 00:51:18 |wonderful, practical, algorithmic truths to what price does and why it does it.
598 |597 |00:51:18 ~-~-> 00:51:22 |And again, another example here with a live account. It's not Market Replay,
599 |598 |00:51:23 ~-~-> 00:51:29 |it's not demo, okay, there's real money at risk here, albeit in this example,
600 |599 |00:51:29 ~-~-> 00:51:33 |it's not much money at risk, but it's still money that, you know, if Caleb
601 |600 |00:51:33 ~-~-> 00:51:36 |would have lost, he would have felt it, you know, he would have said, you know,
602 |601 |00:51:36 ~-~-> 00:51:41 |it's not fun. But when you have wins that are measurable based on the logic
603 |602 |00:51:41 ~-~-> 00:51:47 |that sound it repeats more than it doesn't. That means there is an edge
604 |603 |00:51:47 ~-~-> 00:51:52 |there, and it's based on time, based delivery and price. That's not white
605 |604 |00:51:52 ~-~-> 00:51:57 |cough, that is not Gan that is not anything else. It's simply what the
606 |605 |00:51:57 ~-~-> 00:52:03 |market simply does because it's scripted and by waiting for these signatures to
607 |606 |00:52:03 ~-~-> 00:52:09 |manifest itself in price action, we can trust that the edge is now shifted,
608 |607 |00:52:09 ~-~-> 00:52:14 |potentially not guaranteed, in our favor. And if we follow rule based ideas
609 |608 |00:52:14 ~-~-> 00:52:22 |and we manage risk impeccably, we stand a good chance, not an absolute panacea
610 |609 |00:52:22 ~-~-> 00:52:27 |be all in though profitability, it just means that we have a good chance that if
611 |610 |00:52:27 ~-~-> 00:52:31 |we manage it appropriately, we can potentially yield a positive or
612 |611 |00:52:31 ~-~-> 00:52:36 |profitable outcome. But because we're not risking a whole lot, we can weather
613 |612 |00:52:36 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |the storm of a loss, a series of losing trades, and work our way out of that.
614 |613 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:47 |And hopefully you'll see examples of that with real broker accounts and
615 |614 |00:52:47 ~-~-> 00:52:51 |statements and things like that. So hopefully you found this one insightful.
616 |615 |00:52:51 ~-~-> 00:52:54 |It was inspiring to you, and I hope you stick with this lecture series. It's
617 |616 |00:52:54 ~-~-> 00:52:59 |again, 19 more lectures this month. They'll be complete by the last Friday
618 |617 |00:52:59 ~-~-> 00:53:04 |of January and only delivered on Monday through Friday. On the weekends, there's
619 |618 |00:53:04 ~-~-> 00:53:07 |no lectures, there's no videos, okay, and so I'll talk to you tomorrow evening
620 |619 |00:53:07 ~-~-> 00:53:09 |at 8pm Eastern time. Be safe. You.
621