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ICT YT - 2024-10-16 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 43

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-21 09:33
1 00:00:40 --> 00:01:03 ICT: Good morning, folks, how are you? If you would give me a audio check on
2 00:01:03 --> 00:01:11 Twitter, I appreciate it. Audio sounds pretty good on my end, so you should be
3 00:01:11 --> 00:01:11 okay,
4 00:01:17 --> 00:01:19 right. Here's our opening price. I
5 00:01:40 --> 00:01:45 I don't have a lot of expectation this morning, but I'll sit with y'all. I was
6 00:01:45 --> 00:01:53 going to defer a live stream until this afternoon, but I have plans that I
7 00:01:53 --> 00:01:59 wasn't aware of, according to my wife. Gentlemen, you know how that works, so
8 00:01:59 --> 00:02:03 that prevents that from happening. So I'll just hang out with you all this
9 00:02:03 --> 00:02:10 morning till about 1030 and then we'll break again. Got a lot of feedback from
10 00:02:10 --> 00:02:13 yesterday's lesson. Appreciate that you
11 00:02:51 --> 00:02:53 Trading view is really lagging. I
12 00:03:57 --> 00:04:05 just being Quiet. God is fine. I had a couple guys say that they couldn't hear
13 00:04:05 --> 00:04:09 me yesterday talking as well. So I'm not sure that's You on your end. What?
14 00:05:25 --> 00:05:26 It's a little too Smooth. I'm
15 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 Yes, is a bit of a mess. Take a quick look at down. Whoops,
16 00:06:56 --> 00:07:02 here's decoupling. It's pretty it's pretty expected, actually, when there's
17 00:07:02 --> 00:07:08 no news due out in the morning or this morning, rather, see
18 00:07:13 --> 00:07:19 how they go in different directions. That makes it a lot harder for precision
19 00:07:19 --> 00:07:26 to be available to you doesn't mean you can't trade. It just means that you're
20 00:07:26 --> 00:07:31 trading with lower probability. I've done it before, but if you're a new
21 00:07:31 --> 00:07:35 trader, a new student, it's not something you should be trying to do.
22 00:07:36 --> 00:07:41 All three of the averages should be moving together. If it's a trading asset
23 00:07:41 --> 00:07:45 that you're like. For instance, I'm monitoring NASDAQ on the regular. So if
24 00:07:45 --> 00:07:52 that's my asset class, I want to trade as the indices or stock indices, and the
25 00:07:52 --> 00:07:58 specific instrument being the NASDAQ, I look for the S, P and the Dow to be
26 00:07:58 --> 00:08:04 moving in the same direction. If I'm wanting to be long, I want to see
27 00:08:04 --> 00:08:08 something that's supported the idea for all three of them, bullish.
28 00:08:15 --> 00:08:18 I'm watching this little cap right in here. I
29 00:09:38 --> 00:09:45 i like the idea that a proportion of that gap not being treated to ES is
30 00:09:45 --> 00:09:47 making a lower low
31 00:09:57 --> 00:10:00 it's come out. There's
32 00:10:06 --> 00:10:09 your sales side there. I'm not going to label it, because I don't really care so
33 00:10:09 --> 00:10:19 much about this one. And bow is just a mess. I'm
34 00:10:33 --> 00:10:36 if it runs for the sell side, it's just going to be one of those instances where
35 00:10:37 --> 00:10:45 the first presenter pay gap doesn't give you an entry and you remind yourself
36 00:10:45 --> 00:10:50 that it's decoupling. It means there's the mixed direction on all three
37 00:10:50 --> 00:10:53 averages down, doing its own thing.
38 00:10:59 --> 00:11:05 Good, great for journaling. It reinforces the idea of being highly
39 00:11:05 --> 00:11:08 selective on the days that you want to enter, what a sessions that you want to
40 00:11:08 --> 00:11:13 enter on you want all the things going for you in your trades, instead of just
41 00:11:13 --> 00:11:18 looking for any old thing to get me into a trade. That's a 20 year old ICTs
42 00:11:19 --> 00:11:25 version of trying to trade if it was oversold. That was enough reason. It's
43 00:11:25 --> 00:11:32 enough reason to get in there. Now I'm watching this blame and balance. I
44 00:12:02 --> 00:12:06 No the question probably comes up in your mind, is okay, if you're noticing
45 00:12:06 --> 00:12:10 now, the indices are doing different things. One incy go in one direction,
46 00:12:10 --> 00:12:16 Heather's doing the other direction. What? What does that mean for me as an
47 00:12:16 --> 00:12:20 analyst? What does that mean for me as the trader? What does that mean for
48 00:12:20 --> 00:12:26 action. Where's the actionable ideas on that? Well, you have a choice. You can
49 00:12:26 --> 00:12:30 sit and wait for the indices during the morning session to either come together
50 00:12:31 --> 00:12:35 in terms of agreement or they start moving in tandem. Sometimes that happens
51 00:12:35 --> 00:12:39 in the same session. Sometimes it takes the morning session to sort all that out
52 00:12:39 --> 00:12:44 and over the lunch hours, then the afternoon becomes a little bit better to
53 00:12:44 --> 00:12:49 trade, or it can, on the worst case scenario, it can stay decoupled all day
54 00:12:50 --> 00:12:56 and make very problematic conditions for trading, unless you're really, really
55 00:12:56 --> 00:13:04 short term and you're just taking the lightest, uh, uh, yeah, the things that
56 00:13:04 --> 00:13:07 would instigate your ticket and trade the smallest of things to do that, which
57 00:13:07 --> 00:13:12 I'm not a fan of. I don't teach that anyone should do that. The more things
58 00:13:12 --> 00:13:15 you have in your in your favor, the better.
59 00:13:21 --> 00:13:26 But these are actually better. These are better teaching environments, because
60 00:13:26 --> 00:13:30 nobody wants to talk about these types of things. They want to talk about when
61 00:13:30 --> 00:13:35 they made money or when it was easy for them, and that's the easy part of
62 00:13:35 --> 00:13:41 learning, and that's easy part of being a teacher. When it's easy, everything
63 00:13:41 --> 00:13:45 looks like it's perfect, but when you're met with the realities of what the
64 00:13:45 --> 00:13:49 market is going to give you, sometimes it's going to give you a curveball where
65 00:13:49 --> 00:13:53 you're not getting all the indices in agreement. Let's take quick look at down
66 00:13:53 --> 00:14:04 once more. We don't want to trade that. That's nothing there. It's brilliant. It
67 00:14:04 --> 00:14:10 looks like cheap bubblegum, all right, so we look at the ES so
68 00:14:20 --> 00:14:22 far, the only thing it makes sense, even though it's not in agreement with a
69 00:14:22 --> 00:14:26 agreement with any of the other two indices, NASDAQ still looks okay. And
70 00:14:26 --> 00:14:31 I'll go over what I mean by that. We've we've been weak. We did not get a return
71 00:14:31 --> 00:14:35 back into first retentive fair value gap. That's fine. We have bearish order
72 00:14:35 --> 00:14:40 block trades up into here. Notice the bodies inside this gap, the body stay
73 00:14:40 --> 00:14:45 ready at consequent encroachment or lower. These are the damage inducing
74 00:14:46 --> 00:14:50 events where the wicks are allowed to do that type of damage. And then we roll
75 00:14:50 --> 00:14:57 back down rotation out of the volume imbalance, even with the decoupling. I
76 00:14:57 --> 00:15:01 would like to still see that cell side deliver so. But then, because it's
77 00:15:01 --> 00:15:07 mixed, because it's mixed, I would like to see some kind of return back into the
78 00:15:07 --> 00:15:13 range which is likely to see it come back up in here. That's a scenario to
79 00:15:13 --> 00:15:16 see how they see it straight down into sell side, explore a little bit lower
80 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 than that. And then if it can make its way back up in here, I would look for as
81 00:15:21 --> 00:15:26 long as the Dow stays basically an unruly brat doing what it wants to do,
82 00:15:26 --> 00:15:33 and if the NASDAQ shrugs off any weakness as well, back up into here
83 00:15:33 --> 00:15:38 going into the second half of the am session, that would be something I would
84 00:15:38 --> 00:15:41 look for. It doesn't mean it's exactly what I'm looking for. I'm looking for
85 00:15:41 --> 00:15:43 scenario after seeing the sell side deliver like I just did here,
86 00:15:52 --> 00:15:58 one of the the best things you can do is give yourself permission early on, is to
87 00:15:58 --> 00:16:04 Let trades pan out when it's highly unlikely for precision to be there, so
88 00:16:04 --> 00:16:09 we can still see elements to the things I teach. But these are the types of
89 00:16:09 --> 00:16:12 little things that will probably mess you up. Because you could probably look
90 00:16:12 --> 00:16:16 at this and say, Okay, I said, he said he liked this fair value gap. So maybe
91 00:16:16 --> 00:16:21 some of you push the button. If he did, you failed. Because even though it did,
92 00:16:21 --> 00:16:26 it did deliver. We were looking for sell side. It doesn't mean that you should
93 00:16:26 --> 00:16:29 have taken that trade, because if you've listened, even though it's done this,
94 00:16:30 --> 00:16:33 it's not a high probability of trade. That means these are the types of setups
95 00:16:33 --> 00:16:37 or movements and price action that I'm comfortable sitting on the sideline and
96 00:16:37 --> 00:16:42 just watching them, paint and tape, read them, watch them, observe them, go over
97 00:16:42 --> 00:16:46 them with my son, if you sit next to me or send screenshots to him and say, hey,
98 00:16:46 --> 00:16:50 look, look, take it. Look at this. See what it did here. Not being a
99 00:16:50 --> 00:16:56 participant in it. These types of scenarios happen all the time, but the
100 00:16:56 --> 00:17:01 very, very choice setups where you can get in, they're not as frequent as these
101 00:17:01 --> 00:17:05 are going to be, and that's the problem with inpatient traders, inpatient
102 00:17:06 --> 00:17:10 undisciplined, without a model, without a protocol or procedure that they
103 00:17:10 --> 00:17:15 follow, or a high demand on quality setups where everything is in agreement,
104 00:17:18 --> 00:17:24 See if it's changed anything. I'm still working on one screen, because I want to
105 00:17:24 --> 00:17:28 again emphasize the importance of look at that so it's going the other
106 00:17:30 --> 00:17:36 direction. And then, yes, let's take a quick look at that. No real expansion of
107 00:17:36 --> 00:17:40 the downside, but it still has its cell side right there. So I would manage to
108 00:17:40 --> 00:17:44 say, let's take a couple things here. Note done,
109 00:17:51 --> 00:17:55 volume and balance right in here. I'm just going to make it with a rectangle,
110 00:17:55 --> 00:17:57 if you don't mind, save some time I'm
111 00:18:07 --> 00:18:09 so again that it has sell side down there as well. I'm
112 00:18:23 --> 00:18:27 okay, and back into nq, you
113 00:18:41 --> 00:18:50 can see, rather anemic opening range gap. Again. It just happens that the
114 00:18:50 --> 00:18:56 first fair value gap forms actually in that same area as well. So we have taken
115 00:18:57 --> 00:19:02 cell side on a mixed, decoupled am session during the opening range, we
116 00:19:02 --> 00:19:06 have a couple more minutes still for the first 30 minutes to book.
117 00:19:18 --> 00:19:23 Now, two scenarios on a morning like this, where the averages are doing
118 00:19:23 --> 00:19:28 different things. Dow's going up, sorry. NASDAQ, best performer on the downside.
119 00:19:29 --> 00:19:34 And then you have the ES that is moved a little bit, but it hasn't quite made the
120 00:19:34 --> 00:19:40 same type of delivery for its sell side down here yet. So it's being like I
121 00:19:40 --> 00:19:44 said, it's snubbing any weakness, as I was indicating earlier, like I want to
122 00:19:44 --> 00:19:48 see if it fails to go lower. If it does that, it's going to run for the buy side
123 00:19:48 --> 00:19:54 here, for ES and maybe explore the orders up in that area there, not that
124 00:19:54 --> 00:19:58 it needs to know how many orders there are. That's where the the buy side would
125 00:19:58 --> 00:20:03 be. I'm. These two low, I'm sorry, these two highs with this one being lower than
126 00:20:03 --> 00:20:08 this one, and then this high over here, back it out a little bit, and you see
127 00:20:08 --> 00:20:17 these really clean little, almost too perfect in it. So if it fails to go
128 00:20:17 --> 00:20:22 below the south side, NASDAQ starts to come back up into its range. That would
129 00:20:22 --> 00:20:29 be where my eye would go to for ES, but it's conditional, so notice I'm saying
130 00:20:29 --> 00:20:33 these things have to accompany other things. It's not just simply me saying
131 00:20:33 --> 00:20:38 ES is going there. We'd still have to work out the uncertainty of this cell
132 00:20:38 --> 00:20:46 side being taken or not in agreement with the NASDAQ returning back up into
133 00:20:46 --> 00:20:50 its range, that would indicate this could potentially become an inversion
134 00:20:50 --> 00:20:55 fair value gap, if that is what is likely to see unfold, and that may
135 00:20:55 --> 00:21:00 support a run back up into and maybe the first delivery to, versus a fair value
136 00:21:00 --> 00:21:04 gap and back into the opening range gap, which is kind of sharing the same real
137 00:21:04 --> 00:21:08 estate in terms of price range. Now I'll go back out to river trading hours just
138 00:21:08 --> 00:21:10 for a moment to show you what I mean by that.
139 00:21:16 --> 00:21:21 So we have the silent price here yesterday. I'm just going to use it with
140 00:21:21 --> 00:21:28 the lines, if you don't mind, tape with This. So
141 00:21:58 --> 00:21:59 in an opening price today I'm
142 00:22:10 --> 00:22:17 and then we go back out to electronic trading hours. So you can see there's
143 00:22:17 --> 00:22:22 two, two frames of reference in here we have the first present, the fair value
144 00:22:22 --> 00:22:27 gap that never got traded to yet, despite being delivered to downside and
145 00:22:27 --> 00:22:31 sell side, it did not get traded back into here after creating it. So this
146 00:22:31 --> 00:22:35 candle never made it up there, and no subsequent candle after that made its
147 00:22:35 --> 00:22:41 way up there. So the the constellation prize was that we could see this fair
148 00:22:41 --> 00:22:48 value gap forming here, and the bodies were laid down and buried right at the
149 00:22:48 --> 00:22:52 consequent encroachment of that, that separation between this candlesticks
150 00:22:52 --> 00:22:55 low, that candlesticks high, and the wicks were permitted to do the damage.
151 00:22:57 --> 00:23:02 So it's this is just simply returning back into these two consecutive up close
152 00:23:02 --> 00:23:05 candles, where, because they're two consecutive, I'll close candles, you use
153 00:23:05 --> 00:23:09 the opening price of the lowest. That's this one right here. That's it. That's
154 00:23:09 --> 00:23:14 your order block. Or change in a state of delivery where price was delivering
155 00:23:14 --> 00:23:19 buy side. It means it's moving higher, and then it changes and goes lower. So
156 00:23:19 --> 00:23:22 change in a state delivery is that opening price, and you can see it going
157 00:23:22 --> 00:23:28 right there. It returns and trades lower, just for good measure, it turns
158 00:23:28 --> 00:23:33 right back to this candlesticks low as well. Look at the low of that 20,003 07,
159 00:23:33 --> 00:23:41 even, and the high comes in 20,307.25 which is a perfect delivery to this.
160 00:23:41 --> 00:23:44 Candlesticks low, plus one tick per spread.
161 00:23:53 --> 00:24:01 One more quick look at the Dow. Again, being a brat, doing, doing what it wants
162 00:24:01 --> 00:24:09 to do. And, yes, okay, let's extend this out a little bit more. See we've already
163 00:24:09 --> 00:24:14 hit it there. Watch the consequent encroachment of this lick.
164 00:24:20 --> 00:24:24 Now hit that right there. And in a perfect world, it would roll out of this
165 00:24:24 --> 00:24:31 and go down and attack itself side liquidity. See how it's very, very
166 00:24:31 --> 00:24:36 difficult to frame any kind of stop loss in all this, if you're trying to be
167 00:24:36 --> 00:24:41 short. So that's one of the things that you have to you're just going to have to
168 00:24:41 --> 00:24:46 accept that there are going to be times where you're not being afforded a very
169 00:24:46 --> 00:24:53 low risk entry or an entry at all, despite knowing where it might
170 00:24:53 --> 00:24:58 potentially still trade to and in the beginning, you know, as a student of
171 00:24:58 --> 00:25:03 price action expressive learning. Me, it's real easy to get caught up in the
172 00:25:03 --> 00:25:06 frenzy of trying to use something you just learned, especially if you see our
173 00:25:06 --> 00:25:10 community members that are sharing their immediate, you know, success with
174 00:25:10 --> 00:25:14 something that they just watched me outline and teach for the first time, or
175 00:25:14 --> 00:25:16 maybe amplify something that they thought they understood. And now they're
176 00:25:16 --> 00:25:22 like, Okay, now I have a new a new breath of life and interest around
177 00:25:22 --> 00:25:25 something I used to like, but I haven't been playing around, playing around with
178 00:25:25 --> 00:25:31 it too much. And then you see them doing something that makes them profitable, or
179 00:25:31 --> 00:25:37 shows a profitable endeavor using it. So that means you want to go out there, and
180 00:25:37 --> 00:25:41 you want to try to do it right away, too, and you'll lose focus and not
181 00:25:41 --> 00:25:46 recognize the opportunities that are not being afforded to you, because you're
182 00:25:46 --> 00:25:51 just wanting it to go to a draw on liquidity. And that's not enough. You
183 00:25:51 --> 00:25:57 have to know that this it's market climate where there's a decoupling,
184 00:25:57 --> 00:26:01 where the three averages are doing opposite things. They're not doing the
185 00:26:01 --> 00:26:07 same thing. Okay? So neat little turn back up into the opening price there.
186 00:26:08 --> 00:26:14 Hammered it perfectly. There's nothing in here. The frame of the entry on. So
187 00:26:14 --> 00:26:17 anything we're really watching and observing is, does it have the ability
188 00:26:17 --> 00:26:21 to rotate out of this and attack the sell side? Which is the only thing that
189 00:26:21 --> 00:26:24 makes sense down here, doesn't mean that it can't go higher. It just means that
190 00:26:24 --> 00:26:28 if it does, who cares? You wouldn't have been short, because there's nothing in
191 00:26:28 --> 00:26:35 here to frame it for the risk. There's no way to feel good about taking the
192 00:26:35 --> 00:26:39 trade, because you have decoupling. So I'm speaking to the folks that are
193 00:26:39 --> 00:26:42 trading es, by the way, because I have a lot of students saying, You never talk
194 00:26:42 --> 00:26:48 about es, why don't you like ES? I like the volatility and the price delivery in
195 00:26:48 --> 00:26:53 nq, because NQ is a little bit more exaggerated. It's only 100 stocks versus
196 00:26:53 --> 00:27:00 500 stocks that makes its composite index up. So SNP is a little bit slower.
197 00:27:00 --> 00:27:02 It's a little bit like,
198 00:27:08 --> 00:27:13 it's kind of cognac. I'm not a drinker, but it's like a cognac, and ES is kind
199 00:27:13 --> 00:27:18 of like Johnny Walker or Jack Daniels. Okay, you want to get your ass tore up
200 00:27:18 --> 00:27:22 real quick. You drink the cheap stuff, and you can drink a lot more of it, and
201 00:27:22 --> 00:27:28 it's fun, it's fast, it's an easy, good time, but if you don't think you're
202 00:27:28 --> 00:27:34 doing it can wreck you. ES is a little bit more sophisticated. It's a little
203 00:27:34 --> 00:27:44 bit more well rounded, okay, and the the interest in volatility is my number one
204 00:27:44 --> 00:27:47 concern for trading, because that's what I want as a trader. I need that
205 00:27:47 --> 00:27:53 movement, and it's a lot easier to see that movement outlined in NQ versus
206 00:27:53 --> 00:28:03 something like the the s, p here, I can see, even though the muddied waters of
207 00:28:03 --> 00:28:07 the decoupling this morning, we still were able to ferret out, you know,
208 00:28:07 --> 00:28:13 certain aspects of price. But it's not enough to warrant an entry, because,
209 00:28:13 --> 00:28:17 just because you got in a trade, who cares if I would have got in here on
210 00:28:17 --> 00:28:21 that? Who cares if I would have, you know, took profit down here, or had a
211 00:28:21 --> 00:28:24 runner still that takes another car shot below that low and if it delivered, who
212 00:28:24 --> 00:28:29 cares? It would. It would not mean anything to me as an educator, because
213 00:28:29 --> 00:28:32 I've already outlined it as it's a decoupled market. It means it doesn't
214 00:28:32 --> 00:28:36 have the highest degree probability. And as an educator, I'm trying to teach you
215 00:28:36 --> 00:28:40 to focus on those circumstances, not just simply because, oh, there's a PD
216 00:28:40 --> 00:28:44 array, and there's a liquidity pool. So let's couple those together and this,
217 00:28:44 --> 00:28:48 throw anything at the wall and see what sticks as a short. And then you wonder
218 00:28:48 --> 00:28:52 why you getting chopped up. Your Account being ground down, blown accounts,
219 00:28:52 --> 00:28:57 failed combines, failed, funded accounts, losing real money and then
220 00:28:57 --> 00:29:05 failure. It's because you're forcing things in conditions faster than you
221 00:29:05 --> 00:29:10 should. In other words, you're taking a leap of faith when it doesn't warrant
222 00:29:10 --> 00:29:15 that. Whereas if you had a lot of things going in your favor, where all the
223 00:29:15 --> 00:29:18 indices were, all three were in agreement, they were moving in the same
224 00:29:18 --> 00:29:21 direction. We traded back to the first presented Fairbank gap, and then it
225 00:29:21 --> 00:29:25 showed displacement after that, then it's easy. We could drop down to a 15
226 00:29:25 --> 00:29:29 second chart and take the very next fair value gap and trade, you know, in the in
227 00:29:29 --> 00:29:34 that direction. It need not be complicated. But what does make it
228 00:29:34 --> 00:29:39 complicated is you wrestling with your emotions and your impatience, because
229 00:29:39 --> 00:29:42 you just simply want to get in here and do something, especially if you have
230 00:29:42 --> 00:29:46 never made money or a profitable trade, even in demo yet, using the material and
231 00:29:46 --> 00:29:51 teaching you're you're rushing to get to that one moment where it worked in your
232 00:29:51 --> 00:29:54 hands, because you're telling yourself, if it does this, then I will be able to
233 00:29:54 --> 00:30:00 stick with it. Because it's it's hard to learn how to be disciplined. It's. Hard
234 00:30:00 --> 00:30:04 not. It's not hard to learn from me. If anybody gives you really specific rules
235 00:30:04 --> 00:30:09 and a lot of a lot of limitations to say it that way, it's going to be hard to
236 00:30:09 --> 00:30:12 learn under that. I'm looking at this little gap right here. I'm
237 00:30:25 --> 00:30:26 Yeah, should be rolling over.
238 00:30:36 --> 00:30:44 Really ugly, really, really ugly, but one of the things that I've appreciated
239 00:30:44 --> 00:30:49 as an educator in this year's mentorship lectures is the feedback in the
240 00:30:49 --> 00:30:53 comments. I see all of your comments, by the way, some of you are doing it very
241 00:30:54 --> 00:30:58 smart by taking and leading little time stamps for things, for your notes. No
242 00:30:58 --> 00:31:04 one else sees them. I can see them, but you're using the comment section on the
243 00:31:04 --> 00:31:08 2024 mentorship videos as a way of annotating it, like it's your own
244 00:31:08 --> 00:31:11 personal journal. That's the that's the right way of using my comment section,
245 00:31:12 --> 00:31:17 okay? But I see every comment, every single one of them, the really long
246 00:31:17 --> 00:31:20 ones. I generally skip over them because I don't have time to go through all that
247 00:31:20 --> 00:31:24 stuff. And I'm sure they're very nice comments or whatever, but I don't have
248 00:31:24 --> 00:31:28 time to read that kind of stuff so but usually the real short to a point. Thank
249 00:31:28 --> 00:31:32 you so much. Or could you talk about this? Or I didn't understand that I use
250 00:31:32 --> 00:31:36 all those things to kind of like, go into the discussion points in my next
251 00:31:36 --> 00:31:40 lecture. Or if I come back around and talk about that topic again, I'll pull
252 00:31:40 --> 00:31:44 from my notes any like bullet point things I want to kind of ring into the
253 00:31:44 --> 00:31:53 conversation, the the feedback of you know, knowing when to sit still, because
254 00:31:53 --> 00:31:58 the folks that are being honest and saying that they have had difficulty
255 00:31:58 --> 00:32:03 initially, And now they're becoming a little bit more responsible, and they're
256 00:32:03 --> 00:32:07 admitting that their results that were adverse initially was due to their
257 00:32:07 --> 00:32:09 impatience, and then trying to do something too fast before they
258 00:32:09 --> 00:32:15 understood what they were doing, and also forcing my concepts in conditions
259 00:32:15 --> 00:32:20 that I as the author would never do it like I'm explaining today, what it is
260 00:32:20 --> 00:32:25 that makes this morning a little bit more it doesn't mean it's impossible. It
261 00:32:25 --> 00:32:28 just means that it's gonna be harder for you as a new trader, new student, to
262 00:32:28 --> 00:32:40 navigate it. Hey, hush so down once more. Scouts always gotta her name's
263 00:32:40 --> 00:32:51 Scout, S, C, O, U, T, not scalp. Like, like Boy Scout, like snipe, a Scout
264 00:32:51 --> 00:32:58 Sniper. That's basically she's always got to show herself, don't you? Hey,
265 00:32:58 --> 00:33:09 little girl, how's she that we've had your cameo for this morning, and look at
266 00:33:09 --> 00:33:15 this price action. Compare that with what we just saw in the Dow. And then
267 00:33:15 --> 00:33:15 now, Then
268 00:33:22 --> 00:33:23 shut her up. You.
269 00:34:18 --> 00:34:26 Sorry about that. All right, so I'd like to see if it can come back up in to the
270 00:34:26 --> 00:34:30 range. Here it's it's done enough exploring for me. If it wants to go back
271 00:34:30 --> 00:34:34 up in the air, I would like to see it come back and trade back into the
272 00:34:34 --> 00:34:40 opening range gap. Would not want to short it would not be interested in
273 00:34:40 --> 00:34:48 chasing it lower, s, p is shrugging off any willingness to want to go lower.
274 00:34:53 --> 00:35:01 So look at the low here at 951, to present. Okay, and then look at the
275 00:35:01 --> 00:35:13 NASDAQ. Lower in NASDAQ, which is what we expected anyway. We wanted to see the
276 00:35:13 --> 00:35:18 NASDAQ lead to the downside, but the the SAP I mentioned earlier, I said I'd like
277 00:35:18 --> 00:35:21 to see if it's going to show an unwillingness and kind of shrug off any
278 00:35:21 --> 00:35:27 weakness we've we've seen that thus far. So in other words, then the S, P has not
279 00:35:27 --> 00:35:30 been wanting to go lower, and you can already see how it's showing its
280 00:35:30 --> 00:35:35 willingness to want to go higher now and not go lower. Focus in here and over
281 00:35:35 --> 00:35:36 here, I'm
282 00:35:47 --> 00:35:59 and then the minor one is here. And then Dow, still wanting to do what it wants
283 00:35:59 --> 00:36:01 to do, the old Brett.
284 00:36:07 --> 00:36:13 All right? And I think we're a little too far extended to want to come back
285 00:36:13 --> 00:36:21 into this. I mean, it can, but I wouldn't demand it. And now, this one
286 00:36:21 --> 00:36:23 right in here, remember I was telling you earlier? Telling you earlier that
287 00:36:23 --> 00:36:26 could end up becoming an inversion fair value gap if we were trade back into the
288 00:36:26 --> 00:36:32 range after breaking now below to the sell side we've seen so far over here.
289 00:36:32 --> 00:36:34 Now sell side resides here.
290 00:36:42 --> 00:36:51 If that. And what we want to see, what I would rather see is dow continue doing
291 00:36:51 --> 00:36:56 what it's doing, going higher or consolidate, not drop. Let me go back
292 00:36:56 --> 00:37:10 into the Dow. Dow either stays going higher or consolidates and allows ES to
293 00:37:10 --> 00:37:14 hold his ground, not break below this low. We don't want to see that and
294 00:37:16 --> 00:37:21 notice this width I was drawing on this consequent encroachment. It stopped it
295 00:37:21 --> 00:37:27 here, traded back above it. And then the bodies consequent encroachment of this
296 00:37:27 --> 00:37:30 wick, and then the low of that candlestick, right there, you see that.
297 00:37:30 --> 00:37:33 And then this volume imbalance, we traded through it. And look what
298 00:37:33 --> 00:37:37 happened right here. The body stopped on that high of that volume of balance. And
299 00:37:37 --> 00:37:41 it stopped on the body right there at the open and started rallying, and it
300 00:37:41 --> 00:37:45 went down into it, but didn't breach it. See that, it's interesting, isn't it
301 00:37:46 --> 00:37:49 back into this fair value gap, but the liquidity rests here. So it doesn't make
302 00:37:49 --> 00:37:53 any sense for it to come all up here, just to get to that it's already shown
303 00:37:53 --> 00:37:58 it's not wanting to go to its own cell sign, which was down there. So so far,
304 00:37:58 --> 00:38:01 even though it's decoupled, if you you're going to want to listen to this
305 00:38:01 --> 00:38:06 again, even though it's not an exciting lecture. It's teaching you visibility
306 00:38:06 --> 00:38:10 through this chaotic decoupling between the three averages, doing all different
307 00:38:10 --> 00:38:16 things. I'm pulling out the things that are salient. What would be catalyst for
308 00:38:16 --> 00:38:21 the market to see it back into its range? The s, p, would shake off any
309 00:38:21 --> 00:38:26 weakness. That means it sets the stage for what SMT divergence, which it was
310 00:38:26 --> 00:38:35 not willing to make lower lows here, when the NASDAQ was able to make lower
311 00:38:35 --> 00:38:42 lows, and now we're trading up into this gap here. So we want to see, does it
312 00:38:42 --> 00:38:46 want to trade? It can accumulate in here and run right out of that? That's that's
313 00:38:46 --> 00:38:51 one of the caveats to an inversion fair value gap. If a market's extremely
314 00:38:51 --> 00:38:55 strong and you're expecting it to perform like, like I've outlined here
315 00:38:55 --> 00:39:00 before, before we even move back up into, I said, once we hit sell side, if
316 00:39:00 --> 00:39:06 the ES fails to shrug off, I'm sorry if it fails and shrugs off weakness. That
317 00:39:06 --> 00:39:10 means it fails to drop down, which is what we've seen so far, then this could
318 00:39:10 --> 00:39:15 become an inversion fair value gap. And then we watched the NASDAQ create lower
319 00:39:15 --> 00:39:21 low, but then the ES failed to make a lower low. At the same time that the
320 00:39:21 --> 00:39:26 NASDAQ did that lower low at the same time that the Dow just keeps going
321 00:39:26 --> 00:39:33 higher. So the way these indices could come back into agreement and become
322 00:39:33 --> 00:39:38 symmetrical is dow stays consolidated. Don't don't lose, don't lose any ground,
323 00:39:38 --> 00:39:45 don't go lower or keep going higher, and then es fails to make a lower low, and
324 00:39:45 --> 00:39:49 that's what we've seen so far. NASDAQ makes the lower low and then comes back
325 00:39:49 --> 00:39:54 into its range and uses this as an inversion fair value gap. Now the caveat
326 00:39:54 --> 00:39:59 is it can just leave this thing and never come back down and touch it. You.
327 00:40:00 --> 00:40:03 And use it as a discount array. So that's why, sometimes, if I'm extremely
328 00:40:03 --> 00:40:07 if I'm really convicted on the idea that I think the market's going to go higher,
329 00:40:07 --> 00:40:11 in this instance, I'd be taking the trade as it's hitting this candlesticks
330 00:40:11 --> 00:40:14 high right there. We're trading right at this point now, because it's in
331 00:40:14 --> 00:40:18 consequence, I'm just going to highlight the midpoint of it. So it kind of like
332 00:40:18 --> 00:40:27 highlights the halfway point I'm uh, in instances where it's really bullish, it
333 00:40:27 --> 00:40:35 affords me to get my first six contracts on, and I may not get my four contracts
334 00:40:35 --> 00:40:38 if it comes back down and touches the high of the gap, which is this
335 00:40:38 --> 00:40:43 candlestick low. So that's why, many times, if you look at my examples, I'm
336 00:40:43 --> 00:40:46 entering inside of an inversion fair value gap before it actually proves
337 00:40:46 --> 00:40:50 itself to you as my students, because I understand a little bit more what I'm
338 00:40:50 --> 00:40:54 looking for. And I've also had instances where it just runs right out of the
339 00:40:54 --> 00:40:59 inversion Fairbank, and I don't get either my fill or my second partial to
340 00:40:59 --> 00:41:04 build into a pyramided position. So it's, it's kind of like a knack thing. I
341 00:41:04 --> 00:41:09 don't have any rules that I could adequately explain to know when it just
342 00:41:09 --> 00:41:13 runs away from the inversion fair value gap. It just just happens, kind of like
343 00:41:13 --> 00:41:17 the same thing we've seen here, where I identified, for you, the first presented
344 00:41:17 --> 00:41:22 fair value gap, but it, it didn't deliver to it as a short Okay, well,
345 00:41:22 --> 00:41:26 because it dropped lower, we watched this thing pretty, pretty closely. This
346 00:41:26 --> 00:41:33 morning. We called out the s, p, potentially shaking off any weakness,
347 00:41:34 --> 00:41:38 and in a doubt, keep going higher. So we have a decoupled market, and we were
348 00:41:38 --> 00:41:42 able to still see certain aspects and what price is likely to do, doesn't mean
349 00:41:42 --> 00:41:46 it's going to always do it. I get it wrong a lot when it's decoupled. Don't,
350 00:41:46 --> 00:41:49 don't think for a second. I'm trying to sell you on the idea that I'm 100%
351 00:41:50 --> 00:41:53 inaccurate when there's a decoupling between the three averages. When I say
352 00:41:53 --> 00:41:58 it becomes complicated and complex for precision, I mean it because there's a
353 00:41:58 --> 00:42:02 lot of things that would otherwise be in play that I could point out to and say,
354 00:42:02 --> 00:42:07 Look at this, and look at that. We're seeing a lot less of that here. There's
355 00:42:07 --> 00:42:10 enough of them, obviously, for you to scratch your head and say, Wow, there
356 00:42:10 --> 00:42:13 really is something to this. But it's not enough for me to feel convicted
357 00:42:13 --> 00:42:16 enough to get in there and press the button and enter with real money. That's
358 00:42:16 --> 00:42:23 kind of like what I'm trying to get at. So just know that if you're feeling the
359 00:42:23 --> 00:42:28 impulse to want to send me a comment about, can you teach us how to know when
360 00:42:28 --> 00:42:31 it's never going to come back to the inversion for everybody you got, I don't
361 00:42:31 --> 00:42:39 have a way to articulate that, that that's an, that's a, I don't know
362 00:42:39 --> 00:42:42 that's, that's, that's a limitation on me as a mentor. I just don't know how to
363 00:42:42 --> 00:42:47 teach that. That's, there's a lot of things I have, those types of things
364 00:42:47 --> 00:42:51 with that I'll never they're like taboo conversations where I'm never going to
365 00:42:51 --> 00:42:55 bring them up because to do so or use them in a trade idea and trade them,
366 00:42:55 --> 00:43:01 execute on them and say, This is my so and so, if I don't have a way of
367 00:43:02 --> 00:43:06 explaining it to my kids, I'm certainly not going to have it to explain it to
368 00:43:06 --> 00:43:09 you. So it's just one of those things I have my back pocket that it's an
369 00:43:09 --> 00:43:13 experience thing. It's something I've acquired over years of doing it. And
370 00:43:14 --> 00:43:17 it's not something that's an event. It's an it's not an advantage. It's just a
371 00:43:17 --> 00:43:22 me. It's a me thing to justify why I don't have to have a return back to that
372 00:43:22 --> 00:43:27 inversion fair value gap, because my compensation is I just go in when I know
373 00:43:27 --> 00:43:31 I'm bullish, I'll just enter inside of the inversion fair value gap as it
374 00:43:31 --> 00:43:35 touches the candle that enters it, which is here, we saw that there, and I said,
375 00:43:35 --> 00:43:38 or I'll just go in at the consequent crushment And look at the bodies of the
376 00:43:38 --> 00:43:41 candles right there. You see that. And then we've already delivered here. So
377 00:43:41 --> 00:43:45 this is right here, more than most of the folks you see on live streamers that
378 00:43:45 --> 00:43:50 they're trying to capture, something like that, all live explained to you,
379 00:43:51 --> 00:43:57 even in a little bit more difficult market. But these are the kind of
380 00:43:57 --> 00:44:01 lectures that I wish someone was teaching when I was coming up in 1992
381 00:44:01 --> 00:44:06 because that would have really helped me slow down, and I would have not hurt
382 00:44:06 --> 00:44:11 myself as much as I did, because I was in a rush to try to make money and quit
383 00:44:11 --> 00:44:14 my job and get out of poverty. Basically, you know, I was living
384 00:44:14 --> 00:44:20 paycheck to paycheck with a part time job and in school. So it was, it was a
385 00:44:20 --> 00:44:27 wreck. Let's take a quick look at the Dow once more.
386 00:44:32 --> 00:44:44 Okay, and yes, instead of buy side here. That's probably random. And then we
387 00:44:44 --> 00:44:49 would want to see it, just for good measure, I'd like to see it, okay, smoke
388 00:44:49 --> 00:44:56 those highs right there. We could do that before 1030 fill. I'd appreciate it
389 00:44:56 --> 00:45:10 if it's a. A friendly request, and then back to NASDAQ. See how we just keep
390 00:45:10 --> 00:45:15 gaining ground, and we never came back into what would be viewed as inversion
391 00:45:15 --> 00:45:21 fair value gap, if you're extremely bullish and what you've already outlined
392 00:45:21 --> 00:45:25 or anticipate as an inversion fair value got if you're bullish, like if you're
393 00:45:25 --> 00:45:28 really, really bullish, why would you wait for it to come away from it and
394 00:45:28 --> 00:45:45 come back down? That is a in a lot of ways, that is a I uh, slow to the dance
395 00:45:45 --> 00:45:51 party, or last to the dance floor perspective. If you really want to get
396 00:45:51 --> 00:45:55 out there and Boogie and get down, then get out and get down. So if I know I'm
397 00:45:55 --> 00:45:59 bullish, once we enter this area in here, I already have the conviction that
398 00:45:59 --> 00:46:04 I want to see it, use it as a inversion fair value gap. So why would I give up
399 00:46:04 --> 00:46:08 the opportunity to take an entry at a very low price inside that inversion
400 00:46:08 --> 00:46:12 fair value gap, like at the top of that candlestick here, or at the mean
401 00:46:12 --> 00:46:16 threshold, oops, mean threshold, the consequent encroachment, which is the
402 00:46:16 --> 00:46:21 midpoint of this gap. And you can see the bodies delivering on that basis
403 00:46:21 --> 00:46:25 right there. And that, to me is, you know, again, a signature that I try to
404 00:46:25 --> 00:46:29 press upon you as my students to say, look, you know, what's the chances of
405 00:46:29 --> 00:46:33 that happening where the bodies closed and open on the second candle occur
406 00:46:33 --> 00:46:37 right at the midpoint? And these are things that I keep teaching you to look
407 00:46:37 --> 00:46:43 for. And it's a farce for everyone to come out here and say that doesn't agree
408 00:46:43 --> 00:46:47 with an algorithmic price delivery mechanism or engine that delivers price.
409 00:46:47 --> 00:46:50 They'll say it's buying and selling pressure. And my question is is, how on
410 00:46:50 --> 00:46:57 earth, how on earth did the buyers and sellers agree to allow the candlesticks
411 00:46:57 --> 00:47:01 that are time based here in the time based candlestick is your advantage
412 00:47:02 --> 00:47:06 these Renko things, or whatever else kind of bars you want to call it range
413 00:47:06 --> 00:47:10 bars, they are not going to give you the insight that the algorithm is literally
414 00:47:10 --> 00:47:14 never going to be able to hide from you. It's never, ever, ever going to be able
415 00:47:14 --> 00:47:18 to hide from you, as long as you're utilizing the aspect of time first. And
416 00:47:18 --> 00:47:22 that's what an open, high, low close, or a candlestick with open, high, low and
417 00:47:22 --> 00:47:28 close function is in charting. So if you're looking at price through the lens
418 00:47:28 --> 00:47:33 of this mechanism, you're never going to be lost. It doesn't mean you're going to
419 00:47:33 --> 00:47:36 be right about everything you're looking for. It just means that you're never
420 00:47:36 --> 00:47:40 going to not be able to see what the algorithm is doing. But when they get in
421 00:47:40 --> 00:47:45 there, they intervene. You also can see that too. You can also see when that's
422 00:47:45 --> 00:47:49 occurring. You cannot see that with range bars. You cannot see that with
423 00:47:49 --> 00:47:54 hikinashi. You can't see that with all this other nonsense, these things, these
424 00:47:54 --> 00:47:57 gimmicks, they're all designed. I'm watching this little gap right here. I
425 00:47:57 --> 00:48:02 know it's hard to see because I got my watermark on it. That little gap right
426 00:48:02 --> 00:48:06 there. I don't want to paint over top of what I already have here, because I'm
427 00:48:06 --> 00:48:10 watching. Does it want to just spike into this and then try to continue on?
428 00:48:10 --> 00:48:17 Or does it want to use this order block right here? The I'm waiting to see if it
429 00:48:17 --> 00:48:21 can get up in the first presented fair value. That's kind of like, really want
430 00:48:21 --> 00:48:24 to, want to see, I'm hoping it could do that before we close session. But if it
431 00:48:24 --> 00:48:29 doesn't do it by 1030 you know, I'll leave you with my comments before I
432 00:48:29 --> 00:48:32 close the stream down. But this is enough. This is a profitable study so
433 00:48:32 --> 00:48:36 far because we're working in a problematic condition. You're not going
434 00:48:36 --> 00:48:40 to hear your live streamers explain to you what's going on, why the markets are
435 00:48:40 --> 00:48:43 decoupled. You're not going to explain to you which which markets going to
436 00:48:43 --> 00:48:46 behave a certain way, which one's going to fail to make a lower low and which
437 00:48:46 --> 00:48:49 one is going to make a low income back in the range. That's exactly what you
438 00:48:49 --> 00:48:52 watched me do today. There's no way around that. It's exactly what you've
439 00:48:52 --> 00:48:57 watched me do. I've explained it. I gave you details. I tried to be very succinct
440 00:48:57 --> 00:49:00 about it today, because I had a lot of fun yesterday, in case you didn't
441 00:49:00 --> 00:49:09 notice, but I wanted to be a little bit more academic with you today, and based
442 00:49:09 --> 00:49:13 on what we were watching this morning, it gave me a wonderful stage to do that,
443 00:49:13 --> 00:49:18 because you got to know how to trade if you're going to navigate these types of
444 00:49:18 --> 00:49:21 markets like today, if you don't know how to trade, you're not going to Know
445 00:49:21 --> 00:49:24 what I'm telling you. You're not going to see it and know that. Okay, this is
446 00:49:24 --> 00:49:29 not something I want to be participating in, and that's experience. And most of
447 00:49:29 --> 00:49:33 these live streamers, they don't have that kind of experience. No knock
448 00:49:33 --> 00:49:40 against any of them, really, but they don't have it. So we're back inside that
449 00:49:40 --> 00:49:45 order block I was mentioning right here still, still could come right back down
450 00:49:45 --> 00:49:49 in and hit that inversion fairbag app, it's not, it's not out the realm of
451 00:49:49 --> 00:49:52 possibilities. It still can do that because there's a little gap in here.
452 00:49:52 --> 00:49:56 But preferably I'd like to see that stay open. If I could see that stay open,
453 00:49:56 --> 00:50:00 that would fuel a run higher than the first retention Fairbank. Gap and a gap
454 00:50:00 --> 00:50:07 closure, and then even here, but more so back to this buy side. There that line,
455 00:50:11 --> 00:50:15 and despite everything that's been outlined here, I have absolutely zero
456 00:50:16 --> 00:50:24 interest in being in the marketplace. And couple that with the visibility,
457 00:50:24 --> 00:50:27 knowing what I'm looking for, even though it's something I'm not willing to
458 00:50:27 --> 00:50:32 trade, still being able to anticipate what is likely to happen in price one on
459 00:50:32 --> 00:50:36 one minute chart, where it's supposed to be just noise. Remember Goldman Sachs
460 00:50:36 --> 00:50:40 guys, these alumni from Goldman Sachs, they're going to tell you that there's
461 00:50:40 --> 00:50:43 no rhyme or reason why the market's going to go up. No one can tell you. No
462 00:50:43 --> 00:50:47 con man can tell you when it's going to move or how it's going to go up, or
463 00:50:47 --> 00:50:51 where it's going to move to on these lower time frames. But they're going to
464 00:50:51 --> 00:50:57 say only higher time frames work. Price is doing the same thing when the higher
465 00:50:57 --> 00:51:00 Time Frame chart that it's dealing in a lower time frame, it's not it's not a
466 00:51:00 --> 00:51:05 different price. It's the same price. It's behaving the same way, whatever
467 00:51:05 --> 00:51:09 price it is at the market at any given moment, whether we're looking at a one
468 00:51:09 --> 00:51:13 minute chart, a 32nd chart, a one second chart, a weekly chart, it's still, it's
469 00:51:13 --> 00:51:17 still the same price. And these are Goldman Sachs boys are telling that
470 00:51:17 --> 00:51:25 these are supposed to be the the elites. They're not elites. They're not and
471 00:51:25 --> 00:51:29 you're seeing that there's literally no reason to believe these type of people
472 00:51:29 --> 00:51:35 that tell you, they try to discourage you when you're trying to learn how to
473 00:51:35 --> 00:51:38 time the market correctly. And there's a way of doing it. I mean, I've proven it.
474 00:51:38 --> 00:51:43 I've very, very wealthy students now that came out and they proved that they
475 00:51:43 --> 00:51:46 have the receipts and whatnot, and they're using the same logics you're
476 00:51:46 --> 00:51:51 learning right here, and they're getting more detail at the same time you're
477 00:51:51 --> 00:51:55 learning it too in this 2024 mentorship, you're getting to see it over live price
478 00:51:55 --> 00:52:00 action is exactly what I was doing with mentorship students, and it's
479 00:52:00 --> 00:52:04 fascinating to See how some people don't see the value in it, because this is
480 00:52:04 --> 00:52:08 exactly what I wanted. But I knew it didn't exist when I first started in
481 00:52:08 --> 00:52:15 1992 no one was willing to do this. Not one person was willing to do this. And I
482 00:52:15 --> 00:52:18 guess, in all fairness, I guess we really didn't have the technology at the
483 00:52:18 --> 00:52:23 time to do it. I mean, I guess the best thing it was is we had message boards
484 00:52:23 --> 00:52:28 back then and we had chat rooms. Okay, great, and it wasn't like this, where we
485 00:52:28 --> 00:52:32 can literally share the screen, I can comment, or they could comment over
486 00:52:32 --> 00:52:35 their charts live and build an idea around what it should behave, around
487 00:52:35 --> 00:52:41 what it should be, what should it do next? And why should it do this? And why
488 00:52:41 --> 00:52:45 should it not do the other things? And you can't get that from a book, okay?
489 00:52:45 --> 00:52:50 You can't get that from people, even if you go to like a workshop or a seminar.
490 00:52:50 --> 00:52:55 Most seminars are always, generally held on weekends, where it protects the
491 00:52:55 --> 00:52:59 teacher from never be having the accountability and the responsibility of
492 00:52:59 --> 00:53:04 proving it over live price action. And I've never been a fan of that. And
493 00:53:04 --> 00:53:07 there's a lot of well known, quote, unquote, educators out there that did
494 00:53:07 --> 00:53:10 all these types of workshops, you know, these three day workshops, or two day
495 00:53:10 --> 00:53:16 weekend work workshops where you have the built in parachute protection of
496 00:53:16 --> 00:53:20 never being held to Well, tell me how that would be used or seen in price
497 00:53:20 --> 00:53:24 action live. They don't have to do that because it's on a Saturday and a Sunday,
498 00:53:24 --> 00:53:27 right? Or in a Friday evening where you have a nice dinner experience with them,
499 00:53:27 --> 00:53:30 yeah, screw that. I don't have that. I don't have any interest in that. Because
500 00:53:30 --> 00:53:33 if you're not willing to get out here and explain it to me real time over
501 00:53:33 --> 00:53:36 price action, give me, give me a little bit of time. You don't have to do it,
502 00:53:36 --> 00:53:40 you know, for a whole year. You ain't got to do it for, you know, six months,
503 00:53:40 --> 00:53:44 but give me a couple months at least. How about a month sit down and explain
504 00:53:44 --> 00:53:47 the logic of what you're looking for in price action. And here I have been doing
505 00:53:47 --> 00:53:51 it with you all, and still, I had students that said there was no value in
506 00:53:52 --> 00:53:56 it, and that tells you that they're not willing to learn. They wanted signals.
507 00:53:56 --> 00:54:01 That's what they wanted. They wanted to see signals generated. And the first
508 00:54:01 --> 00:54:07 thing you have to learn is capital preservation, knowing how you're going
509 00:54:07 --> 00:54:11 to lose money and what type of market environment you're going to lose money.
510 00:54:11 --> 00:54:15 And if you can't recognize that, you're not going to recognize the increased
511 00:54:15 --> 00:54:22 difficulty in you applying the things that work in good markets because the
512 00:54:22 --> 00:54:25 complexity of having a market decoupled
513 00:54:27 --> 00:54:32 and you trying to be demanding of precision elements that may elude you,
514 00:54:32 --> 00:54:36 not because my concepts don't work. It's just because you're literally trying to
515 00:54:36 --> 00:54:41 run in mud. It doesn't work that way. So you have to be a little bit more
516 00:54:41 --> 00:54:48 reserved and say, Okay, I'm not trying to force a trade, but I am going to
517 00:54:48 --> 00:54:52 watch price action and see if these things that are being outlined are
518 00:54:52 --> 00:54:57 helpful. Are they indicating anything in terms of prognostication? Did you see
519 00:54:57 --> 00:55:05 the the s? Let's go. Back to it real quick. Did you see the ES shrug off its
520 00:55:05 --> 00:55:10 unwillingness or not want to go down to its lows here? It showed an
521 00:55:10 --> 00:55:15 unwillingness to do that, as we indicated this morning. And it would run
522 00:55:15 --> 00:55:20 for the buy side here, and it would run over here to that now, only a fraud
523 00:55:20 --> 00:55:26 could tell you this beforehand, okay? I mean union rules as as you know, the
524 00:55:26 --> 00:55:32 committee tells us, every fraud has to, you know, tell you in advance exactly
525 00:55:32 --> 00:55:35 where the price is going to go on very complex days. We have to do that,
526 00:55:35 --> 00:55:42 because if we don't do that, we can't be kept in the union protection. Okay? It's
527 00:55:42 --> 00:55:45 just the union rules. It's something we all have to do, folks. It's just the way
528 00:55:45 --> 00:55:48 it is. I can't do anything about it. But when we go back to the NQ,
529 00:55:54 --> 00:55:59 make that in your documentary. We have the market making that lower low in
530 00:55:59 --> 00:56:03 NASDAQ, as I indicated, would likely do after it took its initial sell side.
531 00:56:03 --> 00:56:06 Remember, it was a little bit higher up here. It went down below it, and then I
532 00:56:06 --> 00:56:11 wanted to see it trade back into its range if es failed to make a lower low.
533 00:56:11 --> 00:56:16 So what did I do? I forecasted a SMT divergence. Before it happened, I told
534 00:56:16 --> 00:56:19 you that we would see it return back into its range and come back up into the
535 00:56:19 --> 00:56:23 first percent of fair value gap. And thank you so much, Phil for being a
536 00:56:23 --> 00:56:27 gentleman today, allowing it to happen before 1030 and we're back inside the
537 00:56:27 --> 00:56:33 opening range as well. So what I would like to see it do is just power on
538 00:56:33 --> 00:56:37 higher up and punish those that are short, that have their stop loss sitting
539 00:56:37 --> 00:56:41 right there. And if they're going to run that high, then it's reasonable to
540 00:56:41 --> 00:56:49 anticipate that little Lego looking area price action I was mentioning earlier.
541 00:57:02 --> 00:57:09 I I got this orient here. I'm trying to remember where I saw a little, tiny,
542 00:57:09 --> 00:57:18 little segment of price action. It was a little too boxy looking. Anyway, the key
543 00:57:18 --> 00:57:22 takeaways today are simply this. You're learning from somebody knows what
544 00:57:22 --> 00:57:25 they're talking about. Talking about. And I do a lot of things online to stir
545 00:57:25 --> 00:57:29 up a lot of commotion, because it's my way of bringing traffic to my channel.
546 00:57:29 --> 00:57:32 Because I don't advertise or pay for advertisement, I never do that. I
547 00:57:32 --> 00:57:36 manipulate the viewers mindset, so that way you're going to argue about
548 00:57:36 --> 00:57:39 defending me or not defending me, or you're going to troll me, and because
549 00:57:39 --> 00:57:41 you're talking about me, you're going to bring people to my channel and they're
550 00:57:41 --> 00:57:44 going to watch me do things. Me do things like this, and then they're going
551 00:57:44 --> 00:57:47 to be stuck in a quagmire, because they're going to either listen to your
552 00:57:47 --> 00:57:50 opinion that's biased, because I gave you that opinion, because I I
553 00:57:50 --> 00:57:53 manipulated that. I put you in that situation. They make you feel empowered,
554 00:57:53 --> 00:57:57 so you can make videos about me, and then the people that watch your videos,
555 00:57:57 --> 00:58:01 and you get paid for that, okay, but I'm not paying you, but you're going to send
556 00:58:01 --> 00:58:04 those viewers right to this channel, and they're going to watch me outline this
557 00:58:04 --> 00:58:08 stuff in advance, and it's going to be a question in their mind, either I'm time
558 00:58:08 --> 00:58:12 traveling, I'm using delay data, if they're watching the stream later on,
559 00:58:12 --> 00:58:15 and they're not here live, but there's so many people here watching it live,
560 00:58:16 --> 00:58:21 it's undeniable. I'm on the lowest latency, the lowest latency on live
561 00:58:21 --> 00:58:25 stream on YouTube. That's why they don't let me have the closed captions, because
562 00:58:25 --> 00:58:29 if anyone wants a live stream and test it themselves, you'll see that you
563 00:58:29 --> 00:58:33 cannot do closed caption when you're using the lowest latency. So if I'm
564 00:58:33 --> 00:58:36 going to be talking to you over a one minute chart, or less than a one minute
565 00:58:36 --> 00:58:40 chart, I'm going to use the lowest latency, because I want you to see there
566 00:58:40 --> 00:58:44 is no delay. Okay? I'm not using a delay chart. I'm not I'm not defrauding you
567 00:58:44 --> 00:58:47 with fake delayed data and using Market Replay. I'm not doing those things,
568 00:58:47 --> 00:58:54 folks. I don't need that. I don't need a handicap like that. So the main takeaway
569 00:58:54 --> 00:59:00 is this, I know what my algorithm is going to do. Yes, it's mine. Okay? It's
570 00:59:00 --> 00:59:03 very, very straightforward, isn't it? Okay? It's the time to put the bullshit
571 00:59:03 --> 00:59:09 aside. It's mine. It's got my fingerprints all over it, mine. Okay?
572 00:59:09 --> 00:59:14 When I talk to you, I'm talking to you as its coder, okay? As its author, as
573 00:59:14 --> 00:59:19 its designer and engineer. I am the man. I am the motherfucking man. Whether you
574 00:59:19 --> 00:59:23 want to believe it or not, I don't give a shit. I don't care if I'm not allowed
575 00:59:23 --> 00:59:30 to sit at the table. I'm gonna make more of me. Don't you get it? Don't you guess
576 00:59:30 --> 00:59:37 my name. If I can sit here and tell you what the market's gonna do and what
577 00:59:37 --> 00:59:42 market is gonna do this and what market's going to do that before it does
578 00:59:42 --> 00:59:48 it, and then it behaves a certain way, and it delivers, and I tell you, an
579 00:59:48 --> 00:59:53 inversion value, a fair value gap that was going to form here. It may not come
580 00:59:53 --> 00:59:57 back down and touch it, and you're looking for it to come back down and
581 00:59:57 --> 01:00:01 trade there, I'm telling you, I'm going to enter it. Uh, right there as it
582 01:00:01 --> 01:00:04 touches the candlesticks high. And if I don't get that price, I'm going to get
583 01:00:04 --> 01:00:08 the consequent encroachment, and then it runs away. Does it ever come back down
584 01:00:08 --> 01:00:11 then touch that? No, I told you I wanted this fair bag. Got to stay open. Why?
585 01:00:12 --> 01:00:19 Because that would be a breakaway gap. It leaves this PD array, and if it's
586 01:00:19 --> 01:00:23 breaking away. It's not going to come back down. It could. It could have done
587 01:00:23 --> 01:00:26 that. And then I would say that would be an entry point right there. But I said I
588 01:00:26 --> 01:00:30 would prefer to stay open. And I told you I wanted to see it trade back up in
589 01:00:30 --> 01:00:33 the opening range gap, which are these two blue lines here? But more
590 01:00:33 --> 01:00:36 specifically, I want to see a trade back to my first presented fair value gap.
591 01:00:36 --> 01:00:40 That's what it's coded to do. That's why it's there. That's why it's designed to
592 01:00:40 --> 01:00:45 be there because it gives me an edge. It gives me the advantage that none of you
593 01:00:45 --> 01:00:49 ever had, none of you ever had that advantage. None of you ever had the
594 01:00:49 --> 01:00:53 ability to sit down and know exactly why it should do and why it should do
595 01:00:53 --> 01:00:58 certain things. You've never heard another person ever ever sit here talk
596 01:00:58 --> 01:01:02 to you with the authority that I owe. It's never happened, and I'm doing it
597 01:01:02 --> 01:01:05 over live data, so there's no Joker that can come around and say, Oh, well, look
598 01:01:05 --> 01:01:08 at this. And look at that. Look at everything. I want you to look at all
599 01:01:08 --> 01:01:13 that stuff and come right here and watch me operate. That's what I want. I love
600 01:01:13 --> 01:01:17 placing you in the hot seat where you're forced to to have you have to admit it.
601 01:01:18 --> 01:01:24 You have to admit it that you're not seeing anything in retail here, you're
602 01:01:24 --> 01:01:30 watching someone that knows exactly what's going to happen, period. And now
603 01:01:30 --> 01:01:34 you're left with another testimony of that you have to arm wrestle with how I
604 01:01:34 --> 01:01:39 knew how to do this today. How, how on earth could this possibly keep repeating
605 01:01:39 --> 01:01:45 every single day, every single day, and you're out here wanting to send money to
606 01:01:45 --> 01:01:49 these other people that are literally resetting their funded account
607 01:01:49 --> 01:01:55 challenges in front of you, and they're making money off of you while failing in
608 01:01:55 --> 01:01:58 front of you, not knowing where the market's going to go, but they have an
609 01:01:58 --> 01:02:03 opinion about everybody else, and I'm literally laying this in your hands for
610 01:02:03 --> 01:02:08 free. For free. There's no future mentorship. I have nothing dangling.
611 01:02:08 --> 01:02:13 There's no carrot. There's nothing here, but just a simple truth. I told you who
612 01:02:13 --> 01:02:18 I was from the beginning, but you don't want to believe me. How many times do I
613 01:02:18 --> 01:02:22 keep doing it? How many times do you have to keep seeing me do these things
614 01:02:22 --> 01:02:29 before you recognize who I am? Think, think, folks, how many times do you have
615 01:02:29 --> 01:02:38 to see this? It's delicious. So there's a lot of things that you're going to be
616 01:02:38 --> 01:02:42 met with on days like this, and you're going to expect to see certain things
617 01:02:43 --> 01:02:47 pan out if you don't recognize the decoupling. And the decoupling, again,
618 01:02:47 --> 01:02:53 is the unwillingness for all three averages to move in the same direction.
619 01:02:54 --> 01:02:58 Okay? And as soon as you see this, this is what you want to write down your
620 01:02:58 --> 01:03:01 notes, too, because I didn't mention this earlier, as soon as soon as you
621 01:03:01 --> 01:03:05 notice that just the decoupling between the three averages where the Dow was
622 01:03:05 --> 01:03:10 going up initially. Let me do this, because I really want to be able to show
623 01:03:10 --> 01:03:12 it to you. All right. So
624 01:03:19 --> 01:03:27 let's do this. I'm all right, so here's the NASDAQ chart, and then we're going
625 01:03:27 --> 01:03:32 to put the Dow here. I'll save this part, and then I'm going to close it. I
626 01:03:32 --> 01:03:35 know you want to know. You want me to keep going, going, going, I don't know,
627 01:03:35 --> 01:03:40 like the Energizer button, but I've done enough for today. I want to take care of
628 01:03:40 --> 01:03:44 some personal matters, I'm trying to find Delmonte sliced carrots, and I
629 01:03:44 --> 01:03:50 don't know why I can't find them. Every store I go to, they don't have them, and
630 01:03:50 --> 01:03:55 that's my preferred carrots. But I'm not eating a raw carrot for food storage. I
631 01:03:56 --> 01:04:00 I prefer that one, and I don't know why I can't find them. If you know where I
632 01:04:00 --> 01:04:08 can get some I appreciate it, but I'm on a hunt for Del Monte God carrots. So
633 01:04:08 --> 01:04:21 here is the ES, here is, let's one minute chart on that, the Dow, yeah.
634 01:04:21 --> 01:04:31 Okay, so we've seen at nine o'clock this morning the ES, it drops down. At nine
635 01:04:31 --> 01:04:34 o'clock in the morning here we have a little bit of movement lower, and then
636 01:04:34 --> 01:04:38 the Dow says, Oh, absolutely not. I'm not interested. It starts going higher
637 01:04:39 --> 01:04:46 at the same time the the S P was going lower, and at the same time, we see the
638 01:04:46 --> 01:04:54 NASDAQ dropping down, okay, in all this mess here, because listen, because there
639 01:04:54 --> 01:05:02 is no symmetry meaning that you. The Dow was going one direction, s, p was going
640 01:05:02 --> 01:05:08 lower, and NASDAQ was going lower. That's fine. How can I still read the
641 01:05:08 --> 01:05:14 the NASDAQ like I did? Because I had the decoupling that still existed
642 01:05:14 --> 01:05:19 directionally with the ES, I don't care so much about the Dow. The Dow tells me
643 01:05:19 --> 01:05:23 I'm in a decoupled state. That means I'm going to lose a lot of precision. That
644 01:05:23 --> 01:05:28 means I'm going to lose a lot of resolution, invisibility, of reading,
645 01:05:28 --> 01:05:32 price action in my NASDAQ, and I'm definitely going to have a lot of
646 01:05:32 --> 01:05:37 resolution issues in the ES. It's going to cause like a fuzzy, out of focus
647 01:05:37 --> 01:05:41 picture, even though I can see it's likely to keep going down. And I told
648 01:05:41 --> 01:05:44 you, listen, you're going to go back and listen to the stream and hear me say
649 01:05:44 --> 01:05:49 this. I want to see es shrug off any willingness to go lower by shrugging off
650 01:05:49 --> 01:05:53 weakness. That means failing to go lower. If it fails to go down, take it
651 01:05:53 --> 01:05:57 sell side. That's what I want to see. I'm waiting to see that. That means, if
652 01:05:57 --> 01:06:00 I'm expecting the NASA to go lower, that's going to do what, it's going to
653 01:06:00 --> 01:06:03 create an SMT diversion. That means it's going to means it's going to fail to
654 01:06:03 --> 01:06:08 make a lower low on es when the NASDAQ does make a lower low, and then the
655 01:06:08 --> 01:06:12 NASDAQ will go up back into its range and trade back to its first potential
656 01:06:12 --> 01:06:18 fair value gap. Tell me who called that. Tell me all you ICT mentorship guys out
657 01:06:18 --> 01:06:22 there that are trying to teach my stuff. Tell me that you can go out there and do
658 01:06:22 --> 01:06:26 this, tell me, because if you can do these types of things, then you earn the
659 01:06:26 --> 01:06:29 right to teach my shit. Because you can't do these things. You didn't author
660 01:06:29 --> 01:06:32 it, you didn't code it, you didn't design it, and you didn't put it out
661 01:06:32 --> 01:06:36 there, period, simply that you don't know what the fuck you're doing. So stop
662 01:06:36 --> 01:06:39 selling my shit. You don't have the right to do it. Okay? And all you guys
663 01:06:39 --> 01:06:41 that have your channels up here with my shit, you're teaching it. Have you
664 01:06:41 --> 01:06:45 noticed I'm taking those channels down? Channels down? Yeah, how about that? You
665 01:06:45 --> 01:06:49 don't have the right to put my shit up on your channel, period. My videos are
666 01:06:49 --> 01:06:53 my lecture. Stop uploading my shit and putting them in your language because
667 01:06:53 --> 01:06:56 they're getting stripped down. And don't cry to me about, Oh, could you take the
668 01:06:56 --> 01:06:59 copyright strike back? Fuck you. I'm not taking it back. You don't have my
669 01:06:59 --> 01:07:06 permission to do that. I predicted with the logic explained to you in this live
670 01:07:06 --> 01:07:14 stream. Why? Why the SMT diversions would occur, in which one the ES would
671 01:07:14 --> 01:07:19 fail to make a lower low, it would shrug off weakness. I knew that was going to
672 01:07:19 --> 01:07:22 happen. This is what you're writing down in your notes when you see decoupling,
673 01:07:23 --> 01:07:27 and generally, you're going to see the Dow become That little brat. That's its
674 01:07:27 --> 01:07:33 usefulness to me. I don't care that if the Dow makes a lower low and the s, p
675 01:07:33 --> 01:07:38 fails to make a lower low, I don't see that as a divergence. That's not to me.
676 01:07:38 --> 01:07:44 It's not SMT, because I know that the 30 stocks that make up the Dow are not that
677 01:07:44 --> 01:07:53 impactful overall, but they will normally bend to the will of both the
678 01:07:53 --> 01:07:58 averages. When ES and NASDAQ are going lower, it goes without reason. It goes
679 01:07:58 --> 01:08:03 without saying that all boats rise in high tide, and they all go, they drop in
680 01:08:03 --> 01:08:07 low tide. Okay, that that's that's the analogy here. So when it's really,
681 01:08:07 --> 01:08:14 really moving, the Dow should be moving in sympathy with the ES and NASDAQ. But
682 01:08:14 --> 01:08:18 if in the morning session, we open up and it starts doing like it did this
683 01:08:18 --> 01:08:23 morning, that means I already know that I'm going to have visibility issues with
684 01:08:23 --> 01:08:27 the precision, so then I have to go back to okay. That means that we're
685 01:08:27 --> 01:08:32 decoupled. So at some point later on in the session, there's going to be a SMT
686 01:08:32 --> 01:08:36 divergence, and they're going to go back in sync. The Dallas is simply telling
687 01:08:36 --> 01:08:41 me, No, we're not going down there right now. So I'm going to be looking for
688 01:08:41 --> 01:08:45 what. I'm going to be looking for the s, p, because this one's going to be fuzzy
689 01:08:45 --> 01:08:48 compared to the obvious imbalances and stuff that we saw over here that I
690 01:08:48 --> 01:08:52 haven't you can see the price is reacting off of we're seeing a lot of
691 01:08:52 --> 01:08:57 overlapping in here. I mean, let me magnify this one again. We're seeing a
692 01:08:57 --> 01:09:06 lot of the give and take, back and forth delivery of price here, every
693 01:09:06 --> 01:09:10 candlestick, the range keeps overlapping with the previous one. There's a lot of
694 01:09:10 --> 01:09:14 revisiting on the same prices. So this is like fuzzy type of price action
695 01:09:14 --> 01:09:24 compared to see how much more nice and refined every little range we were able
696 01:09:24 --> 01:09:27 to see the bearish fair value gap here, the change in the state of liquidity,
697 01:09:27 --> 01:09:31 bang hits it. The body stayed inside. The volume imbalance here, we have a
698 01:09:31 --> 01:09:34 volume imbalance here, the body starts in there and leaves. It doesn't come
699 01:09:34 --> 01:09:37 back up into it. That's weakness. Drops down. I told you this is gonna be an
700 01:09:37 --> 01:09:40 inversion fair value gap, but I also said it may not even come back down and
701 01:09:40 --> 01:09:44 touch it. And I told you how to use that inversion fair value gap as an entry,
702 01:09:44 --> 01:09:47 how I would use it, and how I use it to make sure I get into the tree, because I
703 01:09:47 --> 01:09:51 may not get that what, which didn't come the return and reprice back down into
704 01:09:51 --> 01:09:55 it. Now I told you I want to see that fair value gap stay open. That would be
705 01:09:55 --> 01:09:57 a breakaway gap, and it would take us right back up into what is this? Oh,
706 01:09:57 --> 01:10:00 look at the bodies here, respecting the first with. It's a fair Vegas. That's
707 01:10:00 --> 01:10:06 completely random, isn't it? No, it's fucking coded to do that. Hello. You
708 01:10:06 --> 01:10:09 think it's fine. And selling pressure, it's unbelievable. It's literally
709 01:10:09 --> 01:10:13 unbelievable. The volume imbalance I annotated over here because this is all
710 01:10:13 --> 01:10:18 part of what what is this? What is this right here? Market Maker buy model. Does
711 01:10:18 --> 01:10:21 the market maker buy model have to come back up and clear out the original
712 01:10:21 --> 01:10:28 consolidation. No, no, it doesn't. It does not have to do that, but you have
713 01:10:28 --> 01:10:34 to know where it's going to draw to, and you were told that. So the volume
714 01:10:34 --> 01:10:38 balance here, it trades above it comes back down a little tiny little bit
715 01:10:38 --> 01:10:41 outside of it, comes right to the top of it, and then sends it right into the
716 01:10:41 --> 01:10:44 promised land. The first presented fair value got that's always been in your
717 01:10:44 --> 01:10:48 charts, but you've never noticed it. Why? Because Wyckoff didn't teach that.
718 01:10:48 --> 01:10:52 Because Elliot. We've never even heard of it. Pitchforks, don't even get me
719 01:10:52 --> 01:10:55 fucking started. I stuck a pitchfork in the market's ass today, right in front
720 01:10:55 --> 01:11:00 of all of you. It literally was laid out in front of you perfectly in a hard
721 01:11:00 --> 01:11:04 market environment where everybody else out there is going to be scratching our
722 01:11:04 --> 01:11:09 head saying, wow, you know, I'm trying to trade. Es, is a mess. Oh, wow. I'm
723 01:11:09 --> 01:11:11 trying to trade. Dow, what the hell's going on here? Is this thing? This is
724 01:11:11 --> 01:11:16 going all her place, the mess. It's a mess. And maybe you were in the NASDAQ,
725 01:11:16 --> 01:11:21 maybe you were, maybe you were trying to trade short on this first percent of
726 01:11:21 --> 01:11:24 everybody. I think you're scratching your head thinking, Oh, they changed the
727 01:11:24 --> 01:11:28 algorithm. Does it sound like I changed a fucking thing today? No, nope. Didn't
728 01:11:28 --> 01:11:32 change anything. Everything's the same way. It's going to be the same way until
729 01:11:32 --> 01:11:35 these markets no longer exist and you're not allowed to trade in them, you're
730 01:11:35 --> 01:11:39 going to see these things in effect, period. This is the way it is. You don't
731 01:11:39 --> 01:11:43 have to believe me. It's actually better if you don't. This just means there's an
732 01:11:43 --> 01:11:46 supply of liquidity, because that means you're going to be on the other side of
733 01:11:46 --> 01:11:50 my fucking trades. You're going to be on another side of my students trades.
734 01:11:50 --> 01:11:53 Either you're you're there in the tree the train of thought that I'm teaching,
735 01:11:53 --> 01:11:57 and you're not being cannibalized, then you're not going to fall victim to this
736 01:11:57 --> 01:12:00 stuff. You're not going to be tricked and deceived by price action. And
737 01:12:00 --> 01:12:04 thinking about the market runs off of bull flags and bear flags and cup and
738 01:12:04 --> 01:12:07 handle patterns, and that's horseshit. All that stuff is nonsense. It's
739 01:12:07 --> 01:12:11 literally nonsense. And the sooner you come to the realization that these
740 01:12:11 --> 01:12:15 markets are fucking rigged, and they're to the tick rigged, and it's time based
741 01:12:15 --> 01:12:19 delivery, the sooner you're going to be to where you're trying to be, which is
742 01:12:19 --> 01:12:25 consistently finding setups that yield profitability. But that's a huge leap
743 01:12:25 --> 01:12:29 from your first endeavor of trying to learn how to do this, whether it be with
744 01:12:29 --> 01:12:32 me or someone else, to getting to that point because you have all these things
745 01:12:32 --> 01:12:37 in your head that you're rushing to try to get done. I want to be profitable
746 01:12:37 --> 01:12:40 right now. You can't be profitable right now. You have to learn how to fix
747 01:12:40 --> 01:12:40 yourself
748 01:12:42 --> 01:12:46 and in a day like today, this is a complex day for someone that doesn't
749 01:12:46 --> 01:12:50 have a trade, it's very difficult, and I have no shame in saying that it's a more
750 01:12:50 --> 01:12:53 difficult day. But obviously you can see what I'm talking about is happening in a
751 01:12:53 --> 01:12:57 chart as it happened in real time, in a one minute basis. So it's not that I
752 01:12:57 --> 01:13:01 don't know what I'm doing, but I'm agreeing with you if you feel that the
753 01:13:01 --> 01:13:06 adversities in environments like this, because it makes you feel like you're
754 01:13:06 --> 01:13:10 you're somehow ill equipped mentally, or you don't have the capacity to learn how
755 01:13:10 --> 01:13:13 to do it, because the the market feels like it's always beating you down. It's
756 01:13:13 --> 01:13:18 just you're trying to force something in an economic climate that we're in front
757 01:13:18 --> 01:13:22 of an election that's historic. There's a whole lot of corruption everywhere.
758 01:13:22 --> 01:13:25 The markets are absolutely rigged, and they're doing a lot of things right now.
759 01:13:25 --> 01:13:31 In the last three years, they've never done before. They've never done these
760 01:13:31 --> 01:13:36 types of wild whipsaw, but then getting right back in the sink again, there's a
761 01:13:36 --> 01:13:41 whole lot of hand involvement in this. Okay? And if you've had a lot of
762 01:13:41 --> 01:13:46 difficulty in the last year or so, or you've made lots of money, but you just
763 01:13:46 --> 01:13:51 barely made some money, it's not technically your fault. It's not
764 01:13:51 --> 01:14:02 technically your fault. And if you can just accept the fact that you can learn
765 01:14:02 --> 01:14:07 this given enough time, as long as you don't force it too fast. If you're not
766 01:14:07 --> 01:14:15 trying to be correct about everything, you stand a better chance than you
767 01:14:15 --> 01:14:21 probably giving yourself the scheduled destination goal that you've created for
768 01:14:21 --> 01:14:25 yourself, because you have a time that you want to be profitable, and you can't
769 01:14:25 --> 01:14:29 do that, because as soon as you set a date that you this is the day I'm going
770 01:14:29 --> 01:14:32 to quit my job, because I did that stuff. I did that I have so many
771 01:14:32 --> 01:14:36 deadline dates that I was going to quit my job, and I had to keep pushing that
772 01:14:36 --> 01:14:39 date further in the future because I was setting a date that I was going to quit
773 01:14:39 --> 01:14:45 my job. And when it came to I don't care about that, I need to learn how to do
774 01:14:45 --> 01:14:48 this and know that I'm comfortable knowing what it's going to happen in the
775 01:14:48 --> 01:14:53 marketplace. And then I can, if I could see it, if I could create these
776 01:14:53 --> 01:14:58 advantages that are going to be outside the scope and reach of everyone else.
777 01:14:59 --> 01:15:05 Then. It, then it's a lock. I'll know it when I know it. And that's the same
778 01:15:05 --> 01:15:08 thing for you. It's the same thing with when you want to trade with real money,
779 01:15:08 --> 01:15:12 when you when you migrate from a demo account to live trading with real money.
780 01:15:14 --> 01:15:18 I don't know that for you, but you're going to know it when you can sit out in
781 01:15:18 --> 01:15:22 front of a chart, not in front of me like or anyone else like I'm doing here.
782 01:15:22 --> 01:15:25 That's not necessity. But when you sit in front of the charts and you can see
783 01:15:25 --> 01:15:29 what it's going to do, and you're not swayed. You're not You're not feeling
784 01:15:29 --> 01:15:32 impulsive that I have to get in this trade, because I feel like I'm going to
785 01:15:32 --> 01:15:37 be right. And I need that scratched itch. I need to feel good about
786 01:15:37 --> 01:15:40 something when you're when you're no longer replacing something that you're
787 01:15:40 --> 01:15:45 feeling in your job, your personal life, your relationship, that void of
788 01:15:45 --> 01:15:50 discomfort or unpleasantness or lack of happiness, if you're not looking for
789 01:15:50 --> 01:15:54 your trades to reward or fill in that place in your life, and you're
790 01:15:55 --> 01:15:59 consistently able to see what Christ is going to do when you're not being swayed
791 01:15:59 --> 01:16:05 from outward influences, me, anyone else online, anything, but you can still see
792 01:16:05 --> 01:16:08 what price is going to do, and you know how to enter it and where your stock
793 01:16:08 --> 01:16:12 would be, and you have no emotional stimuli around the outcome of it. That
794 01:16:12 --> 01:16:16 is the surest way to know that you're ready for trading with real money,
795 01:16:16 --> 01:16:21 because if you trade any time prior to that, I promise you, you started too
796 01:16:21 --> 01:16:24 soon, and you're probably going to blow your account, or you're going to have a
797 01:16:24 --> 01:16:27 whole lot of drawdown, and then you're going to create scar tissue, and that
798 01:16:27 --> 01:16:32 makes it so much harder to do it with real money. I made those mistakes in
799 01:16:32 --> 01:16:37 1992 I started literally a month after reading a book. That book was not even
800 01:16:37 --> 01:16:43 good, and I blew out half my account in the first trade, it was an option trade
801 01:16:43 --> 01:16:46 in orange juice. And a lot of you know the story, but that created such a fear.
802 01:16:48 --> 01:16:52 And I'm teaching you in this mentorship the same way I'm teaching my son is to
803 01:16:52 --> 01:16:57 sit out here and engage price action with no monetary link to it, none
804 01:16:57 --> 01:17:03 whatsoever, none. He tried it again. He failed his top step. He got it, he
805 01:17:03 --> 01:17:10 passed it, but he lost it. Because he's trying to do before he should simply
806 01:17:10 --> 01:17:16 learn how to do it. All he's doing is confirming how I'm teaching is the
807 01:17:16 --> 01:17:21 correct way in this mentorship, the making money part, that's the easy part,
808 01:17:21 --> 01:17:27 but that you have to arrive at the right mindset, and if you force trying to be
809 01:17:27 --> 01:17:32 profitable before you're even equipped mentally to be able to do it, you got to
810 01:17:32 --> 01:17:37 be able to say no a lot more than saying yes to a trade. And you'll never hear a
811 01:17:37 --> 01:17:42 teacher or author of a book say that. There has to be more instances where
812 01:17:42 --> 01:17:46 you'll say, as an analyst and trader, no, I'm not interested. Even though you
813 01:17:46 --> 01:17:50 can sit there and say it's going to go here, it's like, it's most likely not
814 01:17:50 --> 01:17:53 going to go here, but it's going to go here. But no, I'm not entering that
815 01:17:53 --> 01:18:00 trade to to a new student or to a jack leg online. That sounds asinine, that
816 01:18:00 --> 01:18:02 sounds counterintuitive. It's like, Well, who would, who would do that?
817 01:18:02 --> 01:18:07 That's someone that's unprofitable, talking like that, but someone that says
818 01:18:07 --> 01:18:13 no frequently and says yes to high probability conditions and setups.
819 01:18:13 --> 01:18:16 That's a person that's going to have a long, long career. It's going to have
820 01:18:16 --> 01:18:19 longevity, it's going to be consistently profitable. They're going to have losing
821 01:18:19 --> 01:18:22 trades, but they're losing trades are not going to cause them to cause them to
822 01:18:22 --> 01:18:27 tail spin and go into full tilt and blow their account. That's that's the
823 01:18:27 --> 01:18:31 characteristics that that make a stark contrast between someone that simply
824 01:18:31 --> 01:18:34 says, I'm a trader, I've made money. Look at this, but they're only showing
825 01:18:34 --> 01:18:38 you those instances where it's worked. They're not showing you that they've
826 01:18:38 --> 01:18:43 never had any profitability the rest of the time that week, they're only showing
827 01:18:43 --> 01:18:47 you those little, those single hits, here it is, here it is, here it is. And
828 01:18:47 --> 01:18:50 they're hiding, and, you know, avoiding all that stuff. You know who they are
829 01:18:50 --> 01:18:53 for people to show screenshots after fact, they don't even have a stop loss
830 01:18:53 --> 01:19:01 in there. Come on, we're past all that. Now. We're past all that. I'm so happy
831 01:19:02 --> 01:19:07 to be a mentor that is encouraged other people to record their trades with a
832 01:19:07 --> 01:19:13 stop loss and managing it. And if you can tell who's learned from me, it's
833 01:19:13 --> 01:19:17 like a badge of honor for me to see people on the internet and they're
834 01:19:17 --> 01:19:20 recording their trades. I don't they don't need to have anything annotated
835 01:19:20 --> 01:19:22 their chart. I already know they're my student. I already know how they're
836 01:19:22 --> 01:19:26 entering, how the fact that they're even recording it, and the things that
837 01:19:26 --> 01:19:30 they're pointing to as where it's going to go to next. It's a dead giveaway.
838 01:19:31 --> 01:19:35 It's a dead giveaway. And I'm so glad that it's my students that bring that.
839 01:19:36 --> 01:19:39 You don't see all these other people in these school of thoughts doing that.
840 01:19:39 --> 01:19:44 It's an ICT characteristic. It's a thing that's rubbed off. It's in your it's in
841 01:19:44 --> 01:19:49 your DNA. Daddy gave that to you. Okay, well, we can walk out there and prove
842 01:19:49 --> 01:19:51 that we can manage the trade from beginning to end with the stop loss,
843 01:19:51 --> 01:19:57 over and over and over and over and over and over, every single day it's going to
844 01:19:57 --> 01:20:02 be there. Every single week, it's going to be there. It. But in the beginning,
845 01:20:02 --> 01:20:07 they're not all for you. They're all learning opportunities. They're all for
846 01:20:07 --> 01:20:11 your edification and your learning. But in the future, you're going to see that
847 01:20:11 --> 01:20:14 there's going to be a whole lot less trades that you're going to be taking.
848 01:20:15 --> 01:20:19 So you think that I'm taking 1000s of trades in a month, I'm not. I'm not
849 01:20:19 --> 01:20:24 doing that. I'm looking for the ones that are just the easy, slow ride in
850 01:20:25 --> 01:20:29 with no adversities. It's low resistance, liquidity runs. I don't have
851 01:20:29 --> 01:20:33 any static, no friction. It's just a slide on it. There it is. Thank you.
852 01:20:35 --> 01:20:39 That's what you want as a trader. But I had no one to find that for me when I
853 01:20:39 --> 01:20:45 was first starting in 1992 like I didn't have that. I had Larry Williams telling
854 01:20:45 --> 01:20:49 me to watch accumulation distribution. Williams persona article oversold, and
855 01:20:49 --> 01:20:54 look for, you know, swing highs and swing lows. That was that was it an open
856 01:20:54 --> 01:20:58 interest declining when we're in consolidation. So if there's a premium
857 01:20:58 --> 01:21:02 between the nearby contract and the next month out, then it's probably going to
858 01:21:02 --> 01:21:05 be a commercial bull market. And I was spending my time looking for that stuff,
859 01:21:05 --> 01:21:08 and all that stuff works if you're working on a daily chart. But I don't
860 01:21:08 --> 01:21:12 trade on a daily chart. I trade intraday charts because I want to be in there
861 01:21:12 --> 01:21:19 using velocity. If I go in there and take a trade on that is meant to hold
862 01:21:19 --> 01:21:23 for three months, six months, how much can I really get out of that move?
863 01:21:24 --> 01:21:30 Like I can't really, I can't really do much more than what it's offering,
864 01:21:31 --> 01:21:33 because at some point you can over leverage to the point where you can't
865 01:21:33 --> 01:21:39 afford to trade any more contracts. And I'm not a fan of new equity building in
866 01:21:39 --> 01:21:47 pyramid positions in that too. I hurt myself doing it in the 90s. So here in
867 01:21:47 --> 01:21:52 lower time frames, I can roll an account over and over and over again with
868 01:21:52 --> 01:21:56 multiple setups and the velocity of using new setups, with new gearing,
869 01:21:56 --> 01:22:02 using the new equity at a new trade entry, that velocity can parlay the
870 01:22:02 --> 01:22:05 account up faster when these other people out there are holding on, these
871 01:22:05 --> 01:22:09 hodlers, these hold on for dear life people, that doesn't make any damn sense
872 01:22:09 --> 01:22:14 to me. Okay? Because if you know how to trade, you can go into any given time
873 01:22:14 --> 01:22:19 frame and roll, enroll and roll, and continuously build up, build up, build
874 01:22:19 --> 01:22:23 up, with new positions, and as you make new equity, you're never risking any
875 01:22:23 --> 01:22:27 more than your fixed percentage of risk. So if you have adopted a 1% risk model,
876 01:22:27 --> 01:22:32 that means every trade you take doesn't go over 1% as you make more equity, you
877 01:22:32 --> 01:22:37 can afford to control more contracts or lots if you're trading with Forex. So
878 01:22:37 --> 01:22:41 the risk is never increasing percentage wise, but because your equity is
879 01:22:41 --> 01:22:48 increasing and your ability to allow velocity in the acceleration of the
880 01:22:49 --> 01:22:53 equity growth, that's what intraday trading, and that's why high frequency
881 01:22:53 --> 01:22:59 trading is the mechanism of these entities. That's what they do. They
882 01:22:59 --> 01:23:02 don't go out there and buy and hold for long periods of time. That's not what
883 01:23:02 --> 01:23:07 they do. They work inside these fluctuations like this. That's what a
884 01:23:07 --> 01:23:10 high frequency trading algorithm does. It's buying and selling all day long,
885 01:23:11 --> 01:23:16 but it's using a lot of the things that I'm showing you here, and they repeat
886 01:23:16 --> 01:23:21 over and over and over again. And I would love to talk to you two more, but
887 01:23:21 --> 01:23:26 I gave you another. What's that? 22 minutes more than I should have, but
888 01:23:26 --> 01:23:30 it's extra, and I didn't have to charge you for it. So I'm going to close this
889 01:23:30 --> 01:23:33 one here. I've had a lot of fun sitting down with you today. I hope you learned
890 01:23:33 --> 01:23:36 something. I hope it was able to guide you through this morning. Hope you
891 01:23:36 --> 01:23:40 didn't hurt yourself and it came away with some more insights. If you like
892 01:23:40 --> 01:23:43 what you learned today, I appreciate it. Give it a thumbs up. It doesn't cost you
893 01:23:43 --> 01:23:47 anything. Doesn't make me any more money or make any less money. But if you like
894 01:23:47 --> 01:23:51 these kind of lectures, it's a way for you to sound off and say, you know, I'm
895 01:23:51 --> 01:23:54 paying attention. ICT, I heard what you said today. I watched it unfold today,
896 01:23:54 --> 01:23:57 and I was a witness to it. So until I'll talk to you next time, I don't know if
897 01:23:57 --> 01:24:00 it'll be tomorrow morning. Let me just say that right now I don't know if I'm
898 01:24:00 --> 01:24:03 going to do an afternoon session or if it's an am session, so So grant me a
899 01:24:03 --> 01:24:09 little bit of flexibility. I'll let you know early on tomorrow, probably like
900 01:24:09 --> 01:24:12 730 or so, if I'm going to be live streaming the morning session or the
901 01:24:12 --> 01:24:16 afternoon I have to determine what my personal schedule is going to be like
902 01:24:16 --> 01:24:20 tomorrow, because there's something I have to get done, and if I can get it
903 01:24:20 --> 01:24:23 done today, I'll be able to trade tomorrow or live stream in front of me,
904 01:24:23 --> 01:24:27 rather. And then if I can't get it done today, then I'm going to be doing that
905 01:24:27 --> 01:24:31 tomorrow morning. That would prevent me from being in live streaming the morning
906 01:24:31 --> 01:24:35 session. I would then defer to the afternoon, so we'll have to play it by
907 01:24:35 --> 01:24:40 ear. So just afford me that. That that much latitude here. So until I talk to
908 01:24:40 --> 01:24:42 you, then, Lord willing be safe you.