1 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:17 | ICT: Well, good morning, folks. How are you? If you would all be so kind if |
2 | 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 | you're following me on Twitter or x, if you could just give me a heads up. Give |
3 | 00:02:22 --> 00:02:24 | me a five by five. Let me know you guys can hear me. I |
4 | 00:02:47 --> 00:02:53 | Awesome. Thank you so much, folks. All right, we're going to do a little bit of |
5 | 00:02:53 --> 00:02:59 | a teaching this morning that I think will serve you well. This is something |
6 | 00:02:59 --> 00:03:04 | that is applicable to forex and indices. So it's not something that's just |
7 | 00:03:04 --> 00:03:10 | limited to stock index futures. So I want to take you out to a daily chart |
8 | 00:03:10 --> 00:03:11 | real quick. |
9 | 00:03:20 --> 00:03:27 | Sorry about that. I did not put my my pups away. So if you bear with me one |
10 | 00:03:27 --> 00:03:27 | second, |
11 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:40 | this guy's so unprofessional. Look at this. He does this for free. He does |
12 | 00:03:40 --> 00:03:47 | this for free, and he irritates us with all this extra stuff, all right. So look |
13 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:53 | at this candlestick right here on July 17, 2024 that's the city. That's what |
14 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:00 | has been our objective since, uh, well, since the mentorship in 2024 started |
15 | 00:04:00 --> 00:04:07 | that would likely draw us up into this in here. So if you look at the gradient |
16 | 00:04:07 --> 00:04:12 | levels, we have this candlestick low, that's the high. This candlesticks high, |
17 | 00:04:12 --> 00:04:15 | that's the low of this city. Southside, imbalanced by side and efficiency. |
18 | 00:04:17 --> 00:04:25 | Midpoint is 20,005 68 upper quadrant is 20,006 46, and three quarters. And we've |
19 | 00:04:25 --> 00:04:30 | seen that traded to yesterday, and it looks as if it hit it today as well. So |
20 | 00:04:31 --> 00:04:38 | when we're trading inside of areas where it may consolidate, even though you have |
21 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:44 | a bullish bias, even though I have a bullish bias. It's important you look at |
22 | 00:04:44 --> 00:04:49 | what overnight did, okay and with these levels here, just note that the dotted |
23 | 00:04:49 --> 00:04:55 | heavy dashed, I'm sorry, heavy dotted lines are respective to this individual |
24 | 00:04:55 --> 00:05:00 | single down, closed candle on the daily chart, there's going to be smaller. Four |
25 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:03 | little levels, which I'll put on the chart, and you'll see how I'm putting |
26 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:07 | them on in a moment. Don't get them confused with the dotted lines. Okay, so |
27 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:12 | the lower black one here is this candle sticks daily high on the 18th of July. |
28 | 00:05:13 --> 00:05:18 | This candle sticks low. That's a black dotted line. Then you have the upper |
29 | 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 | quadrant. Blue midpoint is kind of like a purple hue, and the lower quadrant is |
30 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:28 | a blue. Okay, so just be mindful that. And we're going to drop back down into a |
31 | 00:05:28 --> 00:05:34 | one minute chart. You can see the reaction off of that upper quadrant |
32 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:38 | level. So far right here. That's what this is. And if you scroll down a little |
33 | 00:05:38 --> 00:05:48 | bit, you'll see the black one I'm up here, see that. So we have where we are |
34 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:54 | right now to this level, on the upside, if everything remains bullish, this is |
35 | 00:05:54 --> 00:05:59 | the range that's between market price and where it would need to trade to. I |
36 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:05 | have added because I want my son to understand daily highs and lows. There |
37 | 00:06:05 --> 00:06:11 | is the opening bell here. Let me put on rigor trading hours. You can see the |
38 | 00:06:11 --> 00:06:18 | gap. It's rather anemic. So we're not terribly excited about that. So far this |
39 | 00:06:18 --> 00:06:27 | morning, we have some sell side down in here. Be mindful that scalp, honey. I |
40 | 00:06:27 --> 00:06:34 | can't hold you right now, not right now. Go play. So just be mindful this right |
41 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:40 | here. Okay, it's a nice pool of liquidity there. It may be impactful. |
42 | 00:06:42 --> 00:06:43 | This morning's trading. I |
43 | 00:07:00 --> 00:07:19 | I just want to annotate the opening range gap i |
44 | 00:07:25 --> 00:07:32 | All right. So that is the range, if you will. So if we look at the the days |
45 | 00:07:32 --> 00:07:37 | where it can consolidate, okay, and I'll tell you what that means in a moment, in |
46 | 00:07:37 --> 00:07:45 | comparison to a data, it's trending. It if we are in a day where you're looking |
47 | 00:07:45 --> 00:07:48 | at the market on a daily chart and you're trying to determine if it's |
48 | 00:07:48 --> 00:07:51 | bullish or bearish, or if you have already maintained a bullish or bearish |
49 | 00:07:52 --> 00:07:56 | bias, and you're you're waiting for the next leg and price higher or lower, |
50 | 00:07:56 --> 00:08:01 | respected to your bias, we'll say that we're sticking with the bias that's been |
51 | 00:08:01 --> 00:08:07 | given us since the beginning in August of this this year, when I started the |
52 | 00:08:07 --> 00:08:10 | 2024 mentorship on YouTube, I stated the indices would be bullish. They're going |
53 | 00:08:10 --> 00:08:14 | to keep pumping them up until we get into the election. Because the |
54 | 00:08:14 --> 00:08:21 | perspective is the neophytes or the the street money or the unlearned or non |
55 | 00:08:21 --> 00:08:27 | investors, they see the stock market as a measurement of the economy, and it's |
56 | 00:08:27 --> 00:08:32 | not true, but that's that's the mechanism that they use during |
57 | 00:08:32 --> 00:08:36 | presidential election years. So if you haven't never wrote that down in your |
58 | 00:08:36 --> 00:08:41 | journal, just make sure you have that there. So with everything being bullish. |
59 | 00:08:46 --> 00:08:52 | Okay, what you want to do is, anytime when the market's bullish and you have a |
60 | 00:08:53 --> 00:08:57 | consolidation range where we'll have it like this, see what's still in here, |
61 | 00:08:59 --> 00:09:03 | just staying in a rather large range in here. You want to define it to time. |
62 | 00:09:04 --> 00:09:09 | Strip it down to time. Yep, that's that scalp. Look in our water. This is so |
63 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:13 | unprofessional. Cannot believe he's forcing us to listen to this dog lapping |
64 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:25 | up its water. So this is midnight in New York, local time. I Hey, listen, I'm |
65 | 00:09:25 --> 00:09:28 | giving you some leeway here, but you're really taking advantage of it. Be quiet. |
66 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:41 | And to 5am okay, I think I just moved over. |
67 | 00:09:47 --> 00:09:54 | Okay, so you have midnight, New York local time, and you have 5am so these |
68 | 00:09:54 --> 00:09:58 | are overnight hours. It's very specific times. And then what you want to do is |
69 | 00:09:58 --> 00:10:01 | you want to get the highest, high and the lowest. Low between those two price |
70 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:08 | points or two time reference points. Apologize. Okay, don't count the |
71 | 00:10:08 --> 00:10:13 | midnight candle and don't count the 5am candle. It's between those two |
72 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:20 | delineations in time. Okay, so what you'll do is, you can't use that |
73 | 00:10:20 --> 00:10:26 | candlestick. So you can't otherwise it would be that that candlestick that I |
74 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:32 | would be anchored to, I'm not doing that. Notice that. Don't worry. I'll be |
75 | 00:10:32 --> 00:10:36 | looking at live price action at 10 o'clock. Let the opening range |
76 | 00:10:36 --> 00:10:42 | transpire. I don't need this price movement right here. So the midnight |
77 | 00:10:42 --> 00:10:48 | candlestick, and then after that, so 1201, to 459, what's the highest high |
78 | 00:10:48 --> 00:10:53 | and the lowest low? Well, that's right here. That's the high and that's the |
79 | 00:10:53 --> 00:10:59 | low. Once you have that information, what you can do is you grade that price |
80 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:07 | swing. You it, meaning you take your fib, just simply take it, put on the |
81 | 00:11:07 --> 00:11:15 | high, that's not the high, drop it on the highest candle down to the lowest, |
82 | 00:11:15 --> 00:11:21 | and you're gonna be showing the quadrant levels. That means your fib will look |
83 | 00:11:21 --> 00:11:30 | like this. You'll have a 0.25 level 0.75 level, 0.5 level, your one level and |
84 | 00:11:30 --> 00:11:33 | zero level. That's the high and the low the range you're defining, that's |
85 | 00:11:33 --> 00:11:37 | equilibrium, which is halfway, and then the upper and lower quadrant |
86 | 00:11:37 --> 00:11:42 | respectively, depend upon which direction you draw the FIB from okay? So |
87 | 00:11:43 --> 00:11:47 | as you saw that I draw, I drew rather the FIB from the highest to the lowest |
88 | 00:11:47 --> 00:11:57 | in that defined range between 12 by one and 459 this is your overnight range. So |
89 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:02 | what this is actually doing is, is this? This is going to allow you to predict, |
90 | 00:12:02 --> 00:12:06 | yes, predict Virginia. You're going to be predicting some things with this |
91 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:11 | information. Okay, so because you're in a range, you don't use this concept when |
92 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:16 | the market is trending, okay, so when the market is trending, it's been like |
93 | 00:12:16 --> 00:12:20 | running in one direction overnight. This is not what this is. It's part of a |
94 | 00:12:20 --> 00:12:26 | larger range. So if it's been like just tearing off, taken off from Asia, and |
95 | 00:12:26 --> 00:12:30 | just keeps on going one direction, higher or lower, you do not use this for |
96 | 00:12:30 --> 00:12:35 | that. But when you're when you're part of a larger consolidation, which is what |
97 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:36 | you're seeing here, I |
98 | 00:12:43 --> 00:12:47 | are all in here. We do not take out the high here, and we do not take out the |
99 | 00:12:47 --> 00:12:52 | low here. So we're consolidating leading up to the beginning of pre market |
100 | 00:12:52 --> 00:12:58 | session for Tuesday's trading, which is today, today's right now. So what I did |
101 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:03 | is I've defined this overnight range, and we have graded that. Okay, now I'm |
102 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:09 | going to change the the the levels here from a.to a dash, so that way there's a |
103 | 00:13:09 --> 00:13:13 | distinction between, remember, I was telling you on the daily chart those |
104 | 00:13:13 --> 00:13:20 | dotted levels, that is going to be the quadrants inside that daily Sibi or sell |
105 | 00:13:20 --> 00:13:25 | sign, in bounds by signing efficiency. Contrast that with now the heavy dash |
106 | 00:13:25 --> 00:13:30 | line, which is defining the overnight range. When you have this information, |
107 | 00:13:30 --> 00:13:37 | it'll allow you to predict the general location in close proximity where my PD |
108 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:41 | arrays are going to form. So that way you're not surprised. They don't. They |
109 | 00:13:41 --> 00:13:48 | don't just jump out at at you unexpectedly. Let's put it that way. So |
110 | 00:13:48 --> 00:13:52 | a lot of questions I've gotten over the years from my private mentorship |
111 | 00:13:52 --> 00:13:55 | students, a lot of the questions I get from YouTube viewers or whatever, |
112 | 00:13:57 --> 00:14:01 | emails, messages now they go and they text message me. Please don't text |
113 | 00:14:01 --> 00:14:04 | message me, because I'll block you. I won't answer your question. I'll just |
114 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:11 | block your phone number. But the the idea is, I want to get an eye an idea on |
115 | 00:14:11 --> 00:14:20 | how to communicate to students, how they can predict in the general proximity, in |
116 | 00:14:20 --> 00:14:26 | terms of the price. Now the time aspect is, is always constant. You know the |
117 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:33 | times, they're macros, they're the opening session. They have the 830 algo. |
118 | 00:14:33 --> 00:14:38 | That's when 830 this starts spooling. Price runs for liquidity. You saw me do |
119 | 00:14:38 --> 00:14:41 | that yesterday, and I'll go over that trade, by the way, before we close |
120 | 00:14:41 --> 00:14:45 | today, I will be done at 1030 so we won't be having a very long session |
121 | 00:14:45 --> 00:14:51 | today. I'm trying to keep them small, concise and to the point. But if you |
122 | 00:14:51 --> 00:15:01 | look at the levels and again, this is the lower quadrant, middle and. In upper |
123 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:07 | quadrant, you see that of the overnight range. Let me zoom back out a little bit |
124 | 00:15:07 --> 00:15:12 | so you can see the reference once again. Here's the high of it, the upper |
125 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:18 | quadrant, the midpoint, lower quadrant and the low. So this is the low |
126 | 00:15:18 --> 00:15:23 | overnight range, high the overnight range. Very simple, not complicated, is |
127 | 00:15:23 --> 00:15:28 | it? I give you very specific times to look at. I told you why we're using |
128 | 00:15:28 --> 00:15:31 | this. Why are we using this? Because it's part of a larger consolidation. |
129 | 00:15:31 --> 00:15:36 | It's not an extension run where, since Asia started last night, it didn't just |
130 | 00:15:36 --> 00:15:41 | start running in one direction. It's been it's been maintained inside of a |
131 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:45 | larger range. So I already know some of you that are brand new are going to look |
132 | 00:15:45 --> 00:15:51 | at this and be subjective and say, Well, you know, how can I not see this as a |
133 | 00:15:51 --> 00:15:54 | trend? Or, how can I not see this as a reversal? Because you're trying to take |
134 | 00:15:54 --> 00:15:58 | everything that either heard somebody else as a student mention, or maybe |
135 | 00:15:58 --> 00:16:02 | you've watched a few of my videos, and you're trying to form fit and take |
136 | 00:16:03 --> 00:16:07 | certain aspects of what you're unaware of, and you're trying to cram in every |
137 | 00:16:07 --> 00:16:12 | lesson for now, just understand that this is a concept that I use when the |
138 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:17 | market is being held in a range it's not being permitted to extend further. |
139 | 00:16:17 --> 00:16:22 | Overnight, it's staying in yesterday's predetermined range. So inside of the |
140 | 00:16:22 --> 00:16:27 | daily range of yesterday, we haven't made any new significant high or low. So |
141 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:32 | because of that, I elect to use this concept. I'll look at overnight range |
142 | 00:16:32 --> 00:16:41 | defined by 12, 01, to 459, Eastern Time. That means your time always has to be |
143 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:44 | set to this. Okay? If you're looking at trading view and your time is set to |
144 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:51 | anything other than that, you're doing it wrong period. Okay, so what you can |
145 | 00:16:51 --> 00:16:56 | do with this now is think we've been bullish. I've not been calling a crash. |
146 | 00:16:56 --> 00:17:00 | I've not been calling it lower. We've been focusing on primarily the higher |
147 | 00:17:00 --> 00:17:06 | Time Frame, macro perspective, not macro in terms of time. The perspective on the |
148 | 00:17:06 --> 00:17:10 | higher time frames is it's bullish because it's an election year, because |
149 | 00:17:10 --> 00:17:13 | it's likely to continue going higher. Where can it trade to? Well, it can |
150 | 00:17:13 --> 00:17:22 | trade into that larger city on the daily chart. So with these levels here, these |
151 | 00:17:22 --> 00:17:27 | dashed lines that's on the overnight range, these smaller, little dotted |
152 | 00:17:27 --> 00:17:33 | lines here, and I think a little bit more you'll see another one right here. |
153 | 00:17:33 --> 00:17:37 | So here's the upper quadrant to the daily city. Here's the midpoint of that. |
154 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:41 | Look what happened today when we went down and made the low of the overnight |
155 | 00:17:41 --> 00:17:46 | range, going into 430 it turned around in there. And look at that right there. |
156 | 00:17:46 --> 00:17:53 | At 508, what's happening there? Time wise, what's occurring right there at |
157 | 00:17:53 --> 00:18:01 | that candlesticks low. It's trading to the consequent approachment of the daily |
158 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:07 | city, okay, so just for, just for a moment, because I want you to understand |
159 | 00:18:07 --> 00:18:11 | what I'm pointing to here, what this level is. We're going to go back to the |
160 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:17 | daily chart. Just remember that that price, that low, there is 20,005 67.75, |
161 | 00:18:19 --> 00:18:23 | okay, right there. We're gonna jump right back up to a daily chart, because |
162 | 00:18:23 --> 00:18:26 | I want you to see, I want you to see what I'm pointing to and what I'm |
163 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:29 | referencing. Because I'm sure by going back and forth in the time frames, |
164 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:41 | you're losing your focus. That's this level right here, 20,005 68, even, it's |
165 | 00:18:41 --> 00:18:46 | defining that candlesticks low, that candlesticks high, halfway. That's what |
166 | 00:18:46 --> 00:18:50 | that is. Okay? So that's consequent encroachment, because it's a |
167 | 00:18:50 --> 00:18:55 | inefficiency or gap. If it was an order block, it would be mean threshold, the |
168 | 00:18:55 --> 00:18:59 | midpoint of that price level of this individual candlestick. What I'm |
169 | 00:18:59 --> 00:19:07 | highlighting is essentially the middle of this. That right there. And usually |
170 | 00:19:07 --> 00:19:10 | you would see me highlight it like this. It'd be something with a red hue or |
171 | 00:19:10 --> 00:19:14 | whatever, but I'm focusing your attention right there on that midpoint. |
172 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:20 | Now let's go back down to the one minute chart |
173 | 00:19:27 --> 00:19:38 | and right there on that, candlesticks, low, 20,005, 67.75 it went one tick, one |
174 | 00:19:38 --> 00:19:43 | tick below that daily SIB consequent encroachment to so to get that price |
175 | 00:19:43 --> 00:19:47 | perfectly, if you're a smart money trader, it has to do what it has to |
176 | 00:19:47 --> 00:19:51 | trade one tick below it, because you just can't create the low at 20,005 68, |
177 | 00:19:51 --> 00:19:55 | even, which is consequence encroachment that would be the algorithmic delivery |
178 | 00:19:55 --> 00:20:00 | if it was perfect, but not affording any smart money to buy it because you. To |
179 | 00:20:00 --> 00:20:05 | buy it, this has to be at least one tick below that price. Can you follow what |
180 | 00:20:05 --> 00:20:10 | I'm saying? So if we're looking for longs and it trades down to a specific |
181 | 00:20:10 --> 00:20:14 | price level, it's reasonable to anticipate it to go one tick below, for |
182 | 00:20:14 --> 00:20:19 | perfection, for perfection, and you're seeing that happen here at a time. |
183 | 00:20:20 --> 00:20:32 | Listen, now. Listen 450, to 5:10am, that's Asia's close. We're seeing a |
184 | 00:20:32 --> 00:20:40 | shift from the Asian market to European, London crossover into New York. So we're |
185 | 00:20:40 --> 00:20:44 | entering what pre market session for New York session. But we still have Europe. |
186 | 00:20:44 --> 00:20:50 | We still have London, still active until around 11 o'clock, 1030 something like |
187 | 00:20:50 --> 00:20:56 | that. So at that moment, we can see algorithmic price delivery right to the |
188 | 00:20:56 --> 00:21:02 | tick, just like that. And it turns at a higher Time Frame level that you would |
189 | 00:21:02 --> 00:21:08 | have never paid any attention to. Now, when what do we we're bullish. So if |
190 | 00:21:08 --> 00:21:12 | we're bullish on the marketplace, we're expecting price to react off of these |
191 | 00:21:12 --> 00:21:16 | levels and cause displacement to the upside. That means we want to see price |
192 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:21 | start to run higher from it. We're not trying to short. We're trying to look |
193 | 00:21:21 --> 00:21:26 | for displacements moving away from them. It's an energetic price run that says, |
194 | 00:21:26 --> 00:21:31 | Look at me. Pay attention to me. You see that happening here? And what is it |
195 | 00:21:31 --> 00:21:36 | doing? I'm going to take this 5am line off, so just be mindful. Just I'll give |
196 | 00:21:36 --> 00:21:39 | you one chance to take a screenshot of it that way for your notes. Caleb, |
197 | 00:21:39 --> 00:21:44 | everyone else you should be doing this in your own charts. He doesn't have the |
198 | 00:21:44 --> 00:21:48 | experience navigating through as much as some of my older students. But if you're |
199 | 00:21:48 --> 00:21:55 | going to be lazy, you know, I can't stop you, but that's what the opening I'm |
200 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:00 | sorry, the overnight range is from high to low, and the gradings, okay, G, R, A, |
201 | 00:22:00 --> 00:22:08 | D, I N, G, s, gradings. That's what this is. So we see this happen here, and it |
202 | 00:22:08 --> 00:22:11 | starts to school higher. What is it doing? It's taking out the relative |
203 | 00:22:11 --> 00:22:15 | equal highs right here, which are qualified. Why? Because this high is |
204 | 00:22:15 --> 00:22:19 | slightly lower than that one. So what's going to be resting above that short |
205 | 00:22:19 --> 00:22:25 | term? What minor buy side liquidity. So the market rallies up above that, trades |
206 | 00:22:25 --> 00:22:29 | into this inefficiency there, and then comes right back down into in this price |
207 | 00:22:29 --> 00:22:35 | leg. In this price leg, right there, it creates a fair value gap. Where is this |
208 | 00:22:35 --> 00:22:41 | fair value gap in proximity to, I don't know, this lat, this dashed line. Is it |
209 | 00:22:41 --> 00:22:50 | above it, or is it below it? It's below it. So in reference to that price and |
210 | 00:22:51 --> 00:23:01 | time, what time is this? What time is it right in here, 550, to what? 610, macro, |
211 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:07 | holy, holy smokes. This is unbelievable, right? Because now you're starting gears |
212 | 00:23:07 --> 00:23:10 | are turning, aren't they? Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. You better |
213 | 00:23:10 --> 00:23:13 | start making some more videos, because you're literally making me smile every |
214 | 00:23:13 --> 00:23:19 | single day. I'm a fraud. Look. I see these expose themselves. Come on. Make |
215 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:25 | some more videos. Come on. Come on. Below that quadrant. Okay, below that |
216 | 00:23:25 --> 00:23:32 | quadrant. When you're bullish, if a PDA forms, it is in a discount. It's also in |
217 | 00:23:32 --> 00:23:37 | close proximity to it. So that means we're expecting this to deliver, what a |
218 | 00:23:37 --> 00:23:43 | read, delivery in price, which we see here, and then once more, here. What |
219 | 00:23:43 --> 00:23:50 | time is that candlestick forming? 55 minutes after 5am that's the 550, to |
220 | 00:23:50 --> 00:23:57 | 610, macro, then the market. That's what it delivers, price higher. And what does |
221 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:03 | it run for? Equilibrium of the overnight range. That's this dashed line here. |
222 | 00:24:04 --> 00:24:08 | Okay, forget all this stuff here. Forget all that for right now it's trading into |
223 | 00:24:08 --> 00:24:14 | that. And then what does it do? It comes right back down into some random level, |
224 | 00:24:14 --> 00:24:21 | some random Elliott Wave, white golf wannabe stuff. Okay, it trades right |
225 | 00:24:21 --> 00:24:25 | back down into the lower quadrant once more. And does it stop there? Absolutely |
226 | 00:24:25 --> 00:24:30 | it does not. Trades down into your fair value. Get right there. So that makes |
227 | 00:24:30 --> 00:24:35 | this what reclaimed bullish fair value got. And then what does the market do? |
228 | 00:24:36 --> 00:24:41 | Completely random, completely unexpected. It price runs from there all |
229 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:46 | the way up past the minor buy side here, above this buy side, and trades right to |
230 | 00:24:46 --> 00:24:51 | the upper quadrant of the overnight range. Now, what do you think's above |
231 | 00:24:51 --> 00:24:54 | that overnight range? Look how smooth that is. That's that's probably |
232 | 00:24:54 --> 00:24:58 | something significant. What will be resting above that? Oh, I don't know. |
233 | 00:24:58 --> 00:25:02 | Probably some buy stops. I. Some money that would have been riding this short |
234 | 00:25:02 --> 00:25:06 | hoping it's going to keep going down. And the market runs to that level here. |
235 | 00:25:06 --> 00:25:10 | Upper quadrant retraces back down into what, oh my goodness. Look at this |
236 | 00:25:10 --> 00:25:14 | Fairbank guy. How do you pick the right fair value guests all the time? ICT, why |
237 | 00:25:14 --> 00:25:17 | do you keep picking them? You must be recording on a dozen screens, because |
238 | 00:25:17 --> 00:25:20 | you have a dozen screens, and you're recording all of them, and you're |
239 | 00:25:20 --> 00:25:23 | looking for the one that works, then you're going to share that one. Do you |
240 | 00:25:23 --> 00:25:27 | have any idea how hard that is to juggle all that? You guys give me too much |
241 | 00:25:27 --> 00:25:30 | credit. You guys give me way too much credit. All I have to do is the right |
242 | 00:25:30 --> 00:25:34 | stuff. What I'm teaching you right here, this is the right stuff. Okay. NASA |
243 | 00:25:34 --> 00:25:40 | follows my logic. Okay. We do the right stuff. Okay. So again, look at the |
244 | 00:25:40 --> 00:25:46 | criteria. Now look at the criteria here. Is equilibrium. Okay, just so happens |
245 | 00:25:46 --> 00:25:50 | there's a short term load there. What would be there? Sell side, liquidity. |
246 | 00:25:50 --> 00:25:53 | Why would that be there? Because they start to run a little bit here, and |
247 | 00:25:53 --> 00:25:58 | they're going to chase it. Who longs Street Money? Uninformed people, YouTube |
248 | 00:25:58 --> 00:26:01 | influencers with affiliate links for their stuff, because they don't really |
249 | 00:26:01 --> 00:26:05 | trade, but they want to make videos about make videos about me. Keep making |
250 | 00:26:05 --> 00:26:08 | them, baby. Keep making them because you're bringing them right here, and |
251 | 00:26:08 --> 00:26:11 | they're learning how to do it for free. So below that sell side liquidity, |
252 | 00:26:11 --> 00:26:16 | there's your equilibrium price point of the night over night range. So what's |
253 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:21 | below that in close proximity? Oh, it's just this. This random fair value got |
254 | 00:26:21 --> 00:26:25 | right there. One more bullish. And is it below your equilibrium of the overnight |
255 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:30 | range? Absolutely. So what is it? It's discount to the young man to put YouTube |
256 | 00:26:30 --> 00:26:33 | video there. You don't need to do anything at a premium and discount. I |
257 | 00:26:33 --> 00:26:37 | don't do anything at premium discount. It's nonsense. You're clueless. You're |
258 | 00:26:37 --> 00:26:41 | clueless. Son, listen, you need to sit down and take notes, because you're not |
259 | 00:26:41 --> 00:26:44 | learning anything by experimenting without the stuff I've taught, you're |
260 | 00:26:44 --> 00:26:48 | gonna be doing it randomly. You're gonna lose money, and you're gonna assume that |
261 | 00:26:48 --> 00:26:53 | this stuff doesn't work when it's perfect. Okay, Patek, they refer to me |
262 | 00:26:53 --> 00:26:57 | for their precision. They come here. They come here for the precision, for |
263 | 00:26:57 --> 00:27:00 | their watchmaking, because you can set your watch to what I'm doing, the |
264 | 00:27:01 --> 00:27:06 | market's going to deliver just like that, just like that. So the market |
265 | 00:27:06 --> 00:27:09 | comes back down into a fair value gap that is in close proximity to the |
266 | 00:27:09 --> 00:27:13 | equilibrium price point of the overnight range that is clearly defined. It is not |
267 | 00:27:13 --> 00:27:17 | complicated. It is not complex. If you don't know what time it is on your |
268 | 00:27:17 --> 00:27:20 | charts, then you're a fucking idiot. You have new business listening to me or |
269 | 00:27:20 --> 00:27:23 | anyone else, you shouldn't be trading. If you think that's complex, that's |
270 | 00:27:23 --> 00:27:27 | complicated, if you think this is me complicating anything you failed in |
271 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:31 | elementary school, guaranteed they pushed you through school. There's no |
272 | 00:27:31 --> 00:27:36 | way. There's no way you deserve the graduate degree or your diploma if |
273 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:39 | you're if you're still carrying one, if you can't follow up the show here today, |
274 | 00:27:40 --> 00:27:44 | very specific price levels. If you're bullish, the PD arrays will form at |
275 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:50 | them, but below them. Oh, so we're on a discount. That means there, if there |
276 | 00:27:50 --> 00:27:55 | really is this elusive, hard to believe exists algorithm, then there has to be |
277 | 00:27:55 --> 00:28:00 | logic that repeats over and over and over and over again around the things |
278 | 00:28:00 --> 00:28:08 | I've communicated to you what PD arrays around time, time it has to be the time |
279 | 00:28:08 --> 00:28:12 | for the market to move. Otherwise it isn't going to move. It'll stay stagnant |
280 | 00:28:12 --> 00:28:17 | or retrace against you. Period. Now, if it's being held there, that means |
281 | 00:28:17 --> 00:28:21 | there's manual intervention. That means they're holding it for something later |
282 | 00:28:21 --> 00:28:27 | in the day or the next trading day, that part you're gonna get burned by I get |
283 | 00:28:27 --> 00:28:31 | burned by it. It's nothing you can do about that, because if they want to get |
284 | 00:28:31 --> 00:28:35 | their hand in the cookie jar, you can't stop them, period. That's why you have |
285 | 00:28:35 --> 00:28:38 | to have a stop loss. That's why you don't over leverage. So what does it do? |
286 | 00:28:38 --> 00:28:43 | It drops down into some random fair value gap right here, and it's half of |
287 | 00:28:43 --> 00:28:47 | the move that you expect to see deliver, which is the high of the overnight range |
288 | 00:28:48 --> 00:28:52 | price rallies, draws back down into another fair value gap here, |
289 | 00:28:58 --> 00:29:04 | if You were looking for a long if you were, would you be afraid to buy it in |
290 | 00:29:04 --> 00:29:09 | here? Would you think it's too much of a premium? It's too high? Can't buy it. |
291 | 00:29:10 --> 00:29:16 | Can't do it. No. What happens when you see price on the upper half of the |
292 | 00:29:16 --> 00:29:23 | overnight range? You don't want to see anything come back down towards the low |
293 | 00:29:24 --> 00:29:32 | of the overnight range. But we have to deal with what the opening bell. We have |
294 | 00:29:32 --> 00:29:35 | to see. We have to anticipate some kind of volatility coming into the |
295 | 00:29:35 --> 00:29:41 | marketplace. But before the opening bell, what takes place at 830 usually |
296 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:44 | there's news. If there's any news that's on the docket for the day, it's either |
297 | 00:29:44 --> 00:29:48 | going to be a high impact or a medium impact news driver. But you don't need |
298 | 00:29:48 --> 00:29:53 | that. I'm teaching you that there doesn't. There hasn't ever been a need |
299 | 00:29:53 --> 00:29:59 | for me to have a calendar event on 838 30 is an algorithmic price delivery you. |
300 | 00:30:00 --> 00:30:06 | The algorithm does this very thing every single day. At 830 it will spool and it |
301 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:10 | creates some kind of sentiment driven response in traders because they want to |
302 | 00:30:10 --> 00:30:15 | chase it. They want to they want to believe something that's either in play |
303 | 00:30:15 --> 00:30:20 | or maybe potentially reversing. And it gets their their appetite revved up |
304 | 00:30:20 --> 00:30:25 | because they want to get there and start trading in another hour. Think about it. |
305 | 00:30:25 --> 00:30:30 | It's kind of like when you watch the cheerleaders, watch the players on the |
306 | 00:30:30 --> 00:30:34 | field or whatever, before they got on and play their game. Whatever it is they |
307 | 00:30:34 --> 00:30:38 | do, the cheerleaders get them all riled up. Who not the football players. They |
308 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:43 | could care less about them. It's the it's the crowd. Well, the spectators |
309 | 00:30:44 --> 00:30:48 | here are the speculators, and they're waiting for that opening bell. So 830 |
310 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:52 | there's always gonna be what there's gonna be a price run starts just like |
311 | 00:30:52 --> 00:30:56 | that. And if you have a medium or high impact news driver at that time, at 830 |
312 | 00:30:56 --> 00:31:01 | New York local time, then it just exasperates the likelihood that the move |
313 | 00:31:01 --> 00:31:05 | is going to be exaggerated, and that may or may not be indicative of the |
314 | 00:31:05 --> 00:31:10 | underlying direction of the day, or not, very minimum, the morning session. So |
315 | 00:31:11 --> 00:31:15 | price comes back down, does it goes back down to the halfway point after leaving |
316 | 00:31:15 --> 00:31:23 | here? No. In this area, upper quadrant, it's going to be less likely to have the |
317 | 00:31:23 --> 00:31:29 | same degree of precision. Why? If you look at my teachings in the core content |
318 | 00:31:29 --> 00:31:35 | of the 2016 2017 mentorship, I talked about price grading, and then I talked |
319 | 00:31:35 --> 00:31:41 | about how in the upper quadrant there is less degree of precision, because it's |
320 | 00:31:41 --> 00:31:46 | going to be more inclined to run and rip towards to if it's bullish, it's going |
321 | 00:31:46 --> 00:31:50 | to just kind of leave that range and keep going, or at least clear the high |
322 | 00:31:50 --> 00:31:54 | of that range, and that high being the overnight range, market trades back |
323 | 00:31:54 --> 00:31:58 | down, doesn't take out that low, doesn't trade back down to the middle of the |
324 | 00:31:58 --> 00:32:02 | overnight range, and consolidates roughly in here, and then reaching |
325 | 00:32:02 --> 00:32:08 | again, still higher. We're in an upper quadrant of what that daily city. What's |
326 | 00:32:08 --> 00:32:14 | above this? We have Monday's, october 14, daily high. So there's going to be |
327 | 00:32:14 --> 00:32:18 | buy side resting above that. So if it gonna, if it's gonna go higher, it's |
328 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:23 | gonna want to reach into this level. If continuing, sticking with the higher |
329 | 00:32:23 --> 00:32:27 | Time Frame election year bias it would likely draw if it's going to be a |
330 | 00:32:27 --> 00:32:32 | perfect world, in a perfect world where there's redelivery that price right |
331 | 00:32:32 --> 00:32:38 | there is where that daily cities high is. So to deliver back up to that price |
332 | 00:32:38 --> 00:32:43 | level, would at least afford that old daily Sibi to be rebalanced. It doesn't |
333 | 00:32:43 --> 00:32:46 | rebalance simply because it trades there. It needs to leave the range |
334 | 00:32:46 --> 00:32:51 | higher or lower, respectively. Just Just going back to this level here is just |
335 | 00:32:51 --> 00:32:55 | simply redelivery that's not rebalanced. All right. So give me a second here. |
336 | 00:32:56 --> 00:32:59 | These little girls are getting too rambunctious, and then I'm starting to |
337 | 00:32:59 --> 00:33:07 | distract me, so bear with me One second. Okay, this stuff is amazing for being |
338 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:07 | through |
339 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:45 | I had to steal a drink too, spring water, baby. I don't drink alcohol. I |
340 | 00:33:45 --> 00:33:52 | get high on life, alright? So you can see how sloppy and this organ |
341 | 00:33:53 --> 00:33:57 | disorganized It is thus far. So that's why I said we're going to wait till 10 |
342 | 00:33:57 --> 00:34:01 | o'clock and we'll see what we get there. In regards to the next price run higher |
343 | 00:34:01 --> 00:34:07 | or lower. But I want you to think about how you can use the overnight range |
344 | 00:34:07 --> 00:34:14 | defined by 1201 midnight, New York, local town, and then the 5am Well, 459 |
345 | 00:34:14 --> 00:34:20 | rather defining your chart like that and then getting the range measurements from |
346 | 00:34:20 --> 00:34:27 | the high, the upper quadrant, the middle or equilibrium, the lower quadrant, and |
347 | 00:34:27 --> 00:34:31 | the actual low. And then when we start and we transition, this is the this is |
348 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:34 | the price skipped over because I'm being distracted by my dogs. I apologize for |
349 | 00:34:34 --> 00:34:37 | that, but yes, it's what you get when you get it for free, right? You're gonna |
350 | 00:34:37 --> 00:34:43 | have to be a little bit more patient and not have a entitlement mindset, because |
351 | 00:34:43 --> 00:34:46 | some of you guys are leaving comments are just a little too rude and |
352 | 00:34:47 --> 00:34:51 | demanding, and I'm just want to remind you that I'm doing this for for free, |
353 | 00:34:51 --> 00:34:55 | and because I like doing it, not because I'm obligated to. So at six o'clock, we |
354 | 00:34:55 --> 00:35:01 | change over, and that's yet your pre market. So at 6am York local time to |
355 | 00:35:01 --> 00:35:15 | listen now to 933 there. This is all pre market session. There's so much |
356 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:19 | opportunity inside of that range. And you never need to trade the opening |
357 | 00:35:19 --> 00:35:22 | bell. You never need to trade the morning session. You never need to trade |
358 | 00:35:22 --> 00:35:25 | the launch macro. You never need to trade a pm session. You never need to |
359 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:30 | trade the last hour. Trading. If you have a job that requires you to be at |
360 | 00:35:30 --> 00:35:33 | work, or you run a business where you go to university, or if you're just simply |
361 | 00:35:33 --> 00:35:38 | in a different time zone and you can afford to use this area of price action, |
362 | 00:35:39 --> 00:35:43 | you don't need to do anything else. Man, you don't need to do anything else. |
363 | 00:35:43 --> 00:35:48 | It's, it's ample it's it gives you plenty of opportunity, plenty of it. |
364 | 00:35:48 --> 00:35:50 | Now, does that mean every single day you're going to find a winning trade |
365 | 00:35:50 --> 00:35:53 | there? Absolutely not. I can't guarantee that. I can't guarantee that you're |
366 | 00:35:53 --> 00:35:56 | going to have the prowess or the skill set they make even one winning trade, |
367 | 00:35:56 --> 00:35:59 | because so many of my students, they watch a video, and they're in a rush to |
368 | 00:35:59 --> 00:36:03 | try to go out there and use it right away, try to pass a combine, try to get |
369 | 00:36:03 --> 00:36:08 | a payout, whatever you want to, kind of like defer that and study the things I'm |
370 | 00:36:08 --> 00:36:14 | teaching you here are very, very top tier time aspects to what the algorithm |
371 | 00:36:14 --> 00:36:22 | will refer to, and it's dependent on You understanding whether the market is in a |
372 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:26 | protraction, protracted state, that means it's trending. It's going in one |
373 | 00:36:26 --> 00:36:30 | direction overnight. If it's doing that, you cannot use what I just showed you |
374 | 00:36:30 --> 00:36:33 | here today. So what does that mean? You're going to see this actually get |
375 | 00:36:33 --> 00:36:38 | used more times than when it's trending. So this is a kind of like a an MO in the |
376 | 00:36:38 --> 00:36:45 | morning, where I generally will refer to what the overnight range was. I'll grade |
377 | 00:36:45 --> 00:36:49 | that price swing, and all I have to do is determine if I'm bullish or bearish. |
378 | 00:36:49 --> 00:36:52 | If I'm bullish, then I'm going to be looking for every one of these gradient |
379 | 00:36:52 --> 00:36:58 | levels prior to the 6am pre market trading session. I'm going to look at |
380 | 00:36:58 --> 00:37:03 | those ranges, or the level. Rather, this is the low, the lower quadrant, |
381 | 00:37:03 --> 00:37:11 | equilibrium, upper quadrant and the high, respectively. Based on 1201, to |
382 | 00:37:11 --> 00:37:16 | 5am that's easy stuff, folks. It's really, really easy. Now, what do you |
383 | 00:37:16 --> 00:37:21 | think would happen if we were bearish and what we were watching this morning, |
384 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:26 | or what we expecting this morning, we would be looking for PD arrays to form |
385 | 00:37:26 --> 00:37:31 | just above these respective levels to offer us some kind of a shorting |
386 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:36 | opportunity. You see how easy that is. It's very easy. It's not complicated. |
387 | 00:37:36 --> 00:37:39 | It's not complex. There's not a lot of moving parts. You don't need to know |
388 | 00:37:39 --> 00:37:43 | what order block it is. You don't need to know what macro it is. Every macro, |
389 | 00:37:44 --> 00:37:48 | every macro, every 10 minute to the top of the hour, to 10 minutes after the top |
390 | 00:37:48 --> 00:37:55 | of the hour, okay. How many do you have? You have 556, 10 that's one, 657, 10 |
391 | 00:37:55 --> 00:38:02 | that's two, 758, 10 that's three, 859, 10 that's four. You have four |
392 | 00:38:02 --> 00:38:07 | opportunities, plus you got the 830 algo, where it comes online and starts |
393 | 00:38:07 --> 00:38:12 | running at 830 so you have five opportunities in pre market. It's the |
394 | 00:38:12 --> 00:38:17 | equivalent of the same thing you get in the last hour of trading. You think |
395 | 00:38:17 --> 00:38:22 | that's coincidental? No, it's absolutely not. It's all coded. It's all scripted. |
396 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:26 | All these things that you're watching in price action, and you're you're flipping |
397 | 00:38:26 --> 00:38:29 | out, like, Why did it do this? Let me write down, I gotta send a comment to |
398 | 00:38:29 --> 00:38:33 | ICT. Why did this fair value gap work? But this didn't. I'm showing you that. |
399 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:38 | I'm teaching you that, but you have to see other things to understand and |
400 | 00:38:38 --> 00:38:41 | appreciate me pointing to that, that fair value gap. What makes this fair |
401 | 00:38:41 --> 00:38:46 | value gap good? It's below equilibrium. It's in close proximity, but it's at a |
402 | 00:38:46 --> 00:38:50 | discount relative to that equilibrium price point. That this little purple |
403 | 00:38:50 --> 00:38:54 | line right here, I'm on real time. You're never going to be able to see |
404 | 00:38:54 --> 00:38:57 | them on the hard right edge. It won't ever happen for you, it won't ever |
405 | 00:38:57 --> 00:39:03 | happen. But you'll complain, and you'll say this stuff doesn't work, but you |
406 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:07 | didn't win Robins, but you didn't do this, but you didn't do that. Oh, but |
407 | 00:39:07 --> 00:39:13 | I'm out here telling you exactly how to do it. Come on, man, you guys are making |
408 | 00:39:13 --> 00:39:22 | it too easy. So here is our focus for the 10 o'clock hour, going into 1030 I |
409 | 00:39:22 --> 00:39:26 | have to budget my time, because I'm going to need about five minutes to |
410 | 00:39:26 --> 00:39:32 | review yesterday's trades with you, and then we'll close it at 1030 so we are |
411 | 00:39:32 --> 00:39:45 | looking At a abysmal opening range. We have buy side, here, here, here, and |
412 | 00:39:46 --> 00:39:52 | then we have the Monday, October 14. We had a really anemic, that means weak, |
413 | 00:39:52 --> 00:39:58 | very lackluster, opening gap. What did I teach in the mentorship for 2024 here? |
414 | 00:39:58 --> 00:40:06 | I. If it's a small gap that is indicative of what of rather crummy, low |
415 | 00:40:06 --> 00:40:13 | impact, very lackluster, not exciting, not an easy run from entry to target |
416 | 00:40:13 --> 00:40:22 | morning session. So my best advice for you, okay, this is what I'm telling my |
417 | 00:40:22 --> 00:40:27 | son. You all can do what you want to do, but I'm telling my son, Caleb, and all |
418 | 00:40:27 --> 00:40:33 | the other boys that I have that are watching I'm sure the the absence of a |
419 | 00:40:33 --> 00:40:41 | significant gap, okay, an absence of a gap of like, 4550 handles, I like, I |
420 | 00:40:41 --> 00:40:46 | like that. Okay, that like, that's a minimum threshold for me, but I prefer |
421 | 00:40:46 --> 00:40:51 | 75 handles. That's what I'm looking for. If you want to know that the morning |
422 | 00:40:51 --> 00:40:55 | session that I'm absolutely going in there and going right in there at the |
423 | 00:40:55 --> 00:40:59 | opening soon as opening bell happens and we get our first print, I'm not even |
424 | 00:40:59 --> 00:41:02 | going to wait for the first fair value gap. That's just a model for my son, |
425 | 00:41:02 --> 00:41:07 | Caleb. I don't need that. I'm going to trade with 70% likelihood that it's |
426 | 00:41:07 --> 00:41:12 | going to go back to half the gap. If it's 75 handles or more, I'm going in |
427 | 00:41:12 --> 00:41:20 | there right away. That's what I'm I'm looking for reasons to do that. But what |
428 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:27 | can we do if the gap is so small and it's it's anemic? In other words, here's |
429 | 00:41:27 --> 00:41:32 | where we here's where we settle. That yesterday at 4:14pm, that opening, I'm |
430 | 00:41:32 --> 00:41:40 | sorry, that closing price there, and then we opened up here. So if we, if we |
431 | 00:41:41 --> 00:41:50 | look at like this, we have 20,006 31 and three quarters is your opening price, |
432 | 00:41:50 --> 00:41:59 | and then you have the settlement price. Previous day settlement at six, 12.75 |
433 | 00:42:02 --> 00:42:09 | like that's, it's, it's weak. Like, that's weak. That's like Patrick |
434 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:13 | Whelan's, course, it's weak. You can't, you can't really do anything with that. |
435 | 00:42:13 --> 00:42:17 | So you have to do what. You have to expect more information. You have to sit |
436 | 00:42:17 --> 00:42:22 | still. Just sit still. What do you wait for? You wait till 10 o'clock. You work |
437 | 00:42:22 --> 00:42:27 | inside that 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock, silver bullet. You wait for your very |
438 | 00:42:28 --> 00:42:33 | value form, look for liquidity. And if it doesn't give it to you based on your |
439 | 00:42:33 --> 00:42:38 | your bias, or if it doesn't give it to you in a clear, obvious way, then you do |
440 | 00:42:38 --> 00:42:43 | nothing. Why? Because you were warned ahead of time. There was very little bit |
441 | 00:42:43 --> 00:42:48 | of excitement or displacement, right? The opening bell, your, your opening |
442 | 00:42:48 --> 00:42:54 | price, right? There is so small into where we closed at 414, there has, there |
443 | 00:42:54 --> 00:43:00 | has been no excitement created by that gap. So that means that we can have, |
444 | 00:43:00 --> 00:43:06 | what a 5050, delivery in the morning session. So what does that mean for you |
445 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:10 | as a day trader, that you have a little bit more time available to you, and you |
446 | 00:43:10 --> 00:43:14 | could trade the lunch macro, or you could trade the pm session, or you could |
447 | 00:43:14 --> 00:43:17 | trade the last hour trading. That means that that's what you would defer your |
448 | 00:43:17 --> 00:43:23 | trading to. You would simply just go, Okay, I'm gonna go and completely remove |
449 | 00:43:23 --> 00:43:27 | myself from the charts this morning, and I'll come back at 130 I'll watch the |
450 | 00:43:27 --> 00:43:30 | first 30 minutes going into two o'clock, and then I'll trade the pm session, or |
451 | 00:43:30 --> 00:43:34 | I'm just gonna let it do whatever it wants to do until 245 and then I'll sit |
452 | 00:43:34 --> 00:43:38 | down, get a view for what it's likely setting up. And then I'll trade the last |
453 | 00:43:38 --> 00:43:39 | hour trading, |
454 | 00:43:40 --> 00:43:49 | see how easy that is? It's easy to find to manage your time, to schedule your |
455 | 00:43:49 --> 00:43:52 | participation in the marketplace versus I got to get in front of the charts. |
456 | 00:43:53 --> 00:43:58 | I've got to push the button. I have to do something. Because what? Well, I have |
457 | 00:43:58 --> 00:44:01 | to, that's what the traders do. We have to get out here and push the button and |
458 | 00:44:01 --> 00:44:05 | just figure out what happens afterwards? F, A, F, O, right. Well, you don't want |
459 | 00:44:05 --> 00:44:09 | to do that as a trader. That's gambling. You're gambling. Just because the |
460 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:13 | markets are printing and open doesn't mean it's time for you to trade. |
461 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:16 | Professionals are not in here looking for every excuse to do something. |
462 | 00:44:16 --> 00:44:21 | They're looking for the best, choicest setups. If they don't submit themselves |
463 | 00:44:21 --> 00:44:24 | to that. Are they following their model? No? Are they gambling? Yes. Are they |
464 | 00:44:24 --> 00:44:30 | being impulsive and emotional? Most likely, and that's exactly what you want |
465 | 00:44:30 --> 00:44:34 | to avoid doing. You don't want to do any of those things in this mentorship in |
466 | 00:44:34 --> 00:44:39 | 2024 I've taught you how to sit still more than any other educator out there, |
467 | 00:44:40 --> 00:44:45 | and it's based on sound logic that things that repeat, that tell you to sit |
468 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:49 | still. It ain't worth the risk sit still. It ain't worth time or the |
469 | 00:44:49 --> 00:44:52 | investment. The stops are going to be hit. Most likely, your risk is going to |
470 | 00:44:52 --> 00:44:59 | be larger. The direction becomes 5050, during a very specific session, this |
471 | 00:44:59 --> 00:45:07 | one, if. The gap is small, if it's anemic, that means sit still, sit still. |
472 | 00:45:07 --> 00:45:14 | Nothing forces you to get in there and trade it period. Remember this cell side |
473 | 00:45:14 --> 00:45:21 | right here? Let me get these lines off here, because that's not, no, I'm doing |
474 | 00:45:21 --> 00:45:25 | this drawing attention to those prices, which we all necessarily need now. |
475 | 00:45:40 --> 00:45:45 | Now, I personally would like to see the market create the clothes on this |
476 | 00:45:45 --> 00:45:49 | candlestick here, come back up, trade into this fair value gap, and then come |
477 | 00:45:49 --> 00:45:59 | down and take the sell side. That's what I would like to see. For some of you |
478 | 00:45:59 --> 00:46:01 | just already went short because I pointed that sell side again. Now you're |
479 | 00:46:01 --> 00:46:04 | thinking, please don't retrace back up there. Now, please don't |
480 | 00:46:22 --> 00:46:28 | we're looking at River trading hours, by the way. And at 594 and a quarter is |
481 | 00:46:30 --> 00:46:35 | yesterday's afternoon that start up the pm session. Notice that 132 o'clock, |
482 | 00:46:36 --> 00:46:44 | that is a very repeating level of liquidity. When you look for your |
483 | 00:46:44 --> 00:46:50 | session highs and lows, you want to look at between 130 and two o'clock for your |
484 | 00:46:50 --> 00:46:54 | Pm session. And you want to do that in the previous day and the day before |
485 | 00:46:54 --> 00:46:57 | that. So for the last three days, you always want to look at the pm session |
486 | 00:46:57 --> 00:47:02 | highs and pm session lows. But you also want to start looking at whatever has |
487 | 00:47:02 --> 00:47:07 | formed at the beginning of 132 o'clock. That's that opening range going into the |
488 | 00:47:07 --> 00:47:13 | pm session. So because that time window, that 30 minute interval, is synonymous |
489 | 00:47:13 --> 00:47:19 | with setting up the direction the liquidity, where the initial liquidity |
490 | 00:47:19 --> 00:47:23 | would be. And here you can see they created those relative equal lows, and |
491 | 00:47:23 --> 00:47:27 | then they rallied all the way up in the afternoon. Now we're getting ready to |
492 | 00:47:27 --> 00:47:32 | pierce underneath that. And it's because that that liquidity is a constant. It's |
493 | 00:47:32 --> 00:47:36 | it's something that you can go back to on a time based principle. It's not |
494 | 00:47:36 --> 00:47:39 | something random, it's not something ambiguous, it's not something that |
495 | 00:47:39 --> 00:47:43 | constantly morphs into something else that you can't trust them or trust and |
496 | 00:47:43 --> 00:47:48 | rely on. It's a very static thing, like 830 is just like 930 is just like 930 to |
497 | 00:47:48 --> 00:47:52 | 10 o'clock is there are very specific elements of time. So because that time |
498 | 00:47:52 --> 00:47:59 | aspect is it's finite, it's not it's not changing, it's something that will |
499 | 00:47:59 --> 00:48:05 | always be a factor for the algorithm. So just know that between 130 and two |
500 | 00:48:05 --> 00:48:10 | o'clock, whatever has formed at that 30 minute interval above or below it, |
501 | 00:48:10 --> 00:48:13 | there's going to be liquidity there. And if the market is likely to draw back |
502 | 00:48:13 --> 00:48:18 | into it, and you saw it again here today, if it's likely to do that, see |
503 | 00:48:18 --> 00:48:26 | these two lows here. She's trying to get out of that kind of wing. She this guy |
504 | 00:48:27 --> 00:48:32 | lets his dogs make all this noise, and I'm trying to, I'm trying to record all |
505 | 00:48:32 --> 00:48:32 | this stuff. |
506 | 00:48:39 --> 00:48:40 | Let's go back to electronic trading hours. |
507 | 00:48:51 --> 00:49:03 | So upper quadrant on the daily Sibi, see that we're breaking down into the these |
508 | 00:49:03 --> 00:49:13 | lows over here, the liquidity and linear as well. And if we lose the overnight |
509 | 00:49:13 --> 00:49:22 | low, which is this level down here, then it becomes a lot More significant for |
510 | 00:49:22 --> 00:49:23 | the morning session. Hang |
511 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:43 | on one second. Thank. |
512 | 00:50:27 --> 00:50:35 | I had to trick Piper. She wouldn't go in her kennel unless I give her a treat. So |
513 | 00:50:35 --> 00:50:39 | we came down below here, and now we want to look at the overnight Lows. I |
514 | 00:50:52 --> 00:50:53 | And here we come, |
515 | 00:51:02 --> 00:51:10 | just like that. So when we're looking for morning session runs, price runs, |
516 | 00:51:12 --> 00:51:16 | unless we've had a protracted market delivery overnight, that means where, |
517 | 00:51:16 --> 00:51:19 | and you've, you've asked me this a couple weeks ago, where we had the Asian |
518 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:25 | session just, it just started right away and started running one direction, this |
519 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:30 | concept of using the overnight range, because it wouldn't be part of a |
520 | 00:51:30 --> 00:51:33 | consolidation, then it would be a market for attraction, and that means the |
521 | 00:51:33 --> 00:51:38 | market's trending. You don't want to do that. You don't want to measure that and |
522 | 00:51:38 --> 00:51:42 | expect these levels to have any kind of importance if it's part of anything |
523 | 00:51:42 --> 00:51:47 | other than that, then it's part of a consolidation. So it's a lot more likely |
524 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:52 | that it's going to form using these types of ideas than without it, meaning |
525 | 00:51:52 --> 00:51:55 | that you can use this idea, of this concept, because I do it every single |
526 | 00:51:55 --> 00:52:01 | day, if there is not been an overnight trend, and I go in and I measure where |
527 | 00:52:01 --> 00:52:06 | my PD arrays should likely form around price. Then I simply submit myself to |
528 | 00:52:06 --> 00:52:11 | the aspect of time I know that the macro is going to be this, this, this, this, |
529 | 00:52:11 --> 00:52:16 | every 20 minutes of each hour. It's the first 10 minutes before the top of the |
530 | 00:52:16 --> 00:52:21 | hour. Or, let me say it this way, it's the last 10 minutes of the existing |
531 | 00:52:21 --> 00:52:26 | present hour to the new top of the new hour to 10 minutes after that new hour. |
532 | 00:52:26 --> 00:52:32 | So it's whatever hour it is, 50 minutes after that hour to 10 minutes after the |
533 | 00:52:32 --> 00:52:37 | new hour. So it's always that 20 minute interval there. There's always some kind |
534 | 00:52:37 --> 00:52:41 | of price run where it's spoiling for liquidity or reaching into an |
535 | 00:52:41 --> 00:52:48 | inefficiency, these macros are more sensitive because they're more prone to |
536 | 00:52:48 --> 00:52:52 | deliver price because of the increased measure of order flow that's coming in. |
537 | 00:52:53 --> 00:52:58 | And it's used to facilitate that, where it graduates their introduction to the |
538 | 00:52:58 --> 00:53:03 | marketplace, where large institutions, large firms, large insurance companies, |
539 | 00:53:04 --> 00:53:09 | large entities. They have big, big blocks of orders they have to push |
540 | 00:53:09 --> 00:53:12 | through the marketplace. They're not going out there and just throwing them |
541 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:17 | all in one time. They're easing them in. They're easing them in, and a dealer |
542 | 00:53:17 --> 00:53:21 | will facilitate that for them, who's clearing their trades for them, and they |
543 | 00:53:21 --> 00:53:27 | will push them through at appropriate times. Sometimes those times may be |
544 | 00:53:27 --> 00:53:32 | appropriate more so for the dealer. So that way they can, they can make an in |
545 | 00:53:32 --> 00:53:39 | house book and use that, that threshold that this entity has said, Look, I would |
546 | 00:53:39 --> 00:53:44 | like to make a purchase of this, whatever or I would like to sell or |
547 | 00:53:44 --> 00:53:50 | distribute this, but I want, you know, try to get an average price of this much |
548 | 00:53:50 --> 00:53:56 | or better. So that function that's existing without you realizing it, |
549 | 00:53:56 --> 00:53:58 | without you knowing it, because you're looking at charts, patterns and things |
550 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:01 | like that, you don't understand what the actual financial markets are doing and |
551 | 00:54:01 --> 00:54:08 | how they facilitate trade on a large scale. They use these macros to shove |
552 | 00:54:08 --> 00:54:12 | that liquidity through the marketplace. That's why they're there. That's why |
553 | 00:54:12 --> 00:54:16 | that happens. That's the function of what they're doing. So it's kind of like |
554 | 00:54:16 --> 00:54:21 | a built in mechanism to allow and afford large entities, which you're not, I'm |
555 | 00:54:21 --> 00:54:27 | not, and it allows them at every hour, because people are watching how much |
556 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:30 | time they got left in the trading day. How much time does it take between where |
557 | 00:54:30 --> 00:54:34 | I'm looking at it right now and when the opening bell happens? The whole time the |
558 | 00:54:34 --> 00:54:40 | market is being pushed through this aspect of time, and you can only get so |
559 | 00:54:40 --> 00:54:47 | many orders through during a small window time. And because of that, it has |
560 | 00:54:47 --> 00:54:51 | to happen around a specific price level. For these large entities, they just |
561 | 00:54:51 --> 00:54:55 | can't go in there and just buy it at the market because they feel like it's gonna |
562 | 00:54:55 --> 00:55:00 | go higher. They have to go in in measured, appropriated, static. Weird |
563 | 00:55:00 --> 00:55:05 | movements. Otherwise they're never going to get efficient fills. They're never |
564 | 00:55:05 --> 00:55:09 | going to get efficient executions, because they're trying to get an average |
565 | 00:55:09 --> 00:55:15 | cost price that's appropriate for them, for their risk model, or for whatever |
566 | 00:55:15 --> 00:55:18 | their customer needs are, why they're going into the marketplace to do |
567 | 00:55:18 --> 00:55:24 | anything, whether buying or selling. So at every 60 minute interval, there's |
568 | 00:55:24 --> 00:55:28 | this short little span of time. It's it's 20 minutes, and during that 20 |
569 | 00:55:28 --> 00:55:33 | minute time frame, they're shoving orders through. They're piping them |
570 | 00:55:33 --> 00:55:37 | through. It's not their entire block of orders, it's just that's when they're |
571 | 00:55:37 --> 00:55:41 | starting to push them through. Okay? They're not looking at these weird |
572 | 00:55:41 --> 00:55:44 | numbers that I see. People always tweeting to me, oh, yeah, ICT, I see |
573 | 00:55:44 --> 00:55:49 | you. You know, 811, nine. Well, it's nonsense. They think they figured |
574 | 00:55:49 --> 00:55:53 | something out. I swear to God Almighty, none of that stuff has anything to do. |
575 | 00:55:53 --> 00:55:56 | None of that stuff has anything to do with what I'm doing or what the |
576 | 00:55:56 --> 00:56:02 | algorithm is doing. I promise you. I promise you. Okay, it has nothing to do |
577 | 00:56:02 --> 00:56:09 | with GO Box stuff. Okay, I promise you, if you use that stuff and it's helping |
578 | 00:56:10 --> 00:56:13 | you, God, bless you. I swear to God, it has nothing to do. There's nothing going |
579 | 00:56:13 --> 00:56:18 | on with that information in here. Okay, I promise you, it's not happening. But |
580 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:26 | it's these aspects of the time element that I'm I'm forcing you to spend more |
581 | 00:56:26 --> 00:56:32 | time looking at. And because we're leading up to the opening belt 930 every |
582 | 00:56:32 --> 00:56:37 | hour, that creates that macro. And during the pre market session, at six |
583 | 00:56:37 --> 00:56:42 | o'clock to 930 there is several opportunities for you to anticipate |
584 | 00:56:42 --> 00:56:46 | where my PD arrays are going to form. You're not going to be surprised by |
585 | 00:56:46 --> 00:56:50 | them. You're not going to be like, Where'd that come from? You're going to |
586 | 00:56:50 --> 00:56:56 | be anticipating them, expecting them, and in relationship to your bias, where |
587 | 00:56:56 --> 00:56:59 | it's likely to reach, to how far it's going to go, went to the upper quadrant |
588 | 00:56:59 --> 00:57:04 | of that daily city sweeping the relative equal highs here, here and here. What |
589 | 00:57:04 --> 00:57:14 | did they leave? What's above that my side? Do you because you see this drop |
590 | 00:57:14 --> 00:57:18 | down in here? Do you abandon the bullishness on the daily chart? Because |
591 | 00:57:18 --> 00:57:22 | you see that so many retail traders would so many retail traders see that |
592 | 00:57:22 --> 00:57:27 | kind of stuff, and that's exactly how they use this type of price action. It |
593 | 00:57:27 --> 00:57:32 | discourages them to want to be long. It discourages them to ever want to |
594 | 00:57:32 --> 00:57:36 | consider that maybe the higher time frame, you know, just had a little |
595 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:40 | retracement today, and it wants to go higher for the next three weeks until we |
596 | 00:57:40 --> 00:57:49 | get into election, knowing what you're looking at in terms of the delivery of |
597 | 00:57:49 --> 00:57:52 | market protraction. That means, when the market's just running one direction, |
598 | 00:57:52 --> 00:57:56 | like this would be a market protraction, for instance. It's this one sidedness, |
599 | 00:57:56 --> 00:58:02 | but it's a very small one, because it's only been going for about what, 40 |
600 | 00:58:02 --> 00:58:10 | minutes or so, not even about a half an hour. That's a very small market |
601 | 00:58:10 --> 00:58:16 | protraction. It's one sided, one sided delivery. If the overnight is behaving |
602 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:20 | that way from Asia all through London, if it's doing something like that, you |
603 | 00:58:20 --> 00:58:23 | do not do what I showed you this morning, because it's not going to help |
604 | 00:58:23 --> 00:58:29 | you, but I have tools for when it's dealing the protraction. Okay, I can't |
605 | 00:58:29 --> 00:58:33 | teach it all today because it took me longer to do it. But here, when it's |
606 | 00:58:33 --> 00:58:37 | part of a large consolidation, and there is no one sided protraction overnight, |
607 | 00:58:37 --> 00:58:42 | and it's part of consolidation, just simply get the high and the low and then |
608 | 00:58:42 --> 00:58:47 | grade it with the lower quadrant equilibrium. And upper quadrant stick to |
609 | 00:58:47 --> 00:58:50 | the bias that's determined on the higher time frame we have been bullish. So it's |
610 | 00:58:50 --> 00:58:54 | going to reach for what it's going to reach for some measure of a premium |
611 | 00:58:54 --> 00:58:59 | array. Well, that Sibi that we looked at, that's the upper quadrant level |
612 | 00:58:59 --> 00:59:04 | here, and it reaches into that multiple times, offering what it's like playing |
613 | 00:59:04 --> 00:59:07 | horseshoes. You ever play horseshoes in the United States, we have a game where |
614 | 00:59:07 --> 00:59:10 | you take these two metal poles, you pound them in the ground, and you |
615 | 00:59:10 --> 00:59:16 | actually take horseshoes of horse. I know there's gonna be people that don't |
616 | 00:59:16 --> 00:59:19 | know what I'm talking about. This from another language or different part of |
617 | 00:59:19 --> 00:59:24 | the country, but basically, the metal apparatus gets a hammer on the bottom of |
618 | 00:59:24 --> 00:59:30 | a horse's foot in its hoof. We have created this game. It's been a long, |
619 | 00:59:30 --> 00:59:33 | long time. It's, I can't tell you how long it's been in existence, but the the |
620 | 00:59:33 --> 00:59:37 | object of the game is to take this horseshoe and toss it at this post that |
621 | 00:59:37 --> 00:59:41 | you nailed into the ground, and you're trying to get a ringer. It's called |
622 | 00:59:41 --> 00:59:46 | where the horseshoe will go around the post. And that's what you're you're |
623 | 00:59:46 --> 00:59:51 | anticipating, is you're seeing this level here, the high of the overnight |
624 | 00:59:51 --> 00:59:57 | range, the Monday high. And then if it was to keep going up in here, that's the |
625 | 00:59:57 --> 01:00:00 | high, the daily city. So what you're doing is with your order. Is why you're |
626 | 01:00:00 --> 01:00:05 | long you're tossing partials into these levels, trying to secure a ringer, |
627 | 01:00:05 --> 01:00:13 | trying to get a profitable exit. But if you don't know what you're doing with |
628 | 01:00:13 --> 01:00:15 | finding fair value gaps, |
629 | 01:00:16 --> 01:00:19 | this is going to help you, because it's going to give you a degree of |
630 | 01:00:19 --> 01:00:24 | understanding a general proximity in terms of price, where it should form, |
631 | 01:00:25 --> 01:00:30 | but how to qualify it if it's below a level from the overnight range and |
632 | 01:00:30 --> 01:00:33 | you're bullish, that means your discount. So that means every fair value |
633 | 01:00:33 --> 01:00:38 | gap below these gradient levels of the overnight range, that makes it a high |
634 | 01:00:38 --> 01:00:45 | probability. High probability, not. It might work. I hope this one holds up. |
635 | 01:00:45 --> 01:00:50 | These are the ones I'm trading on. This is the this is the ICT fair value gap |
636 | 01:00:50 --> 01:00:53 | that I'm trading on. These are the ones where I go in there and I'll put six |
637 | 01:00:53 --> 01:00:56 | contracts on it, runs away from it, comes back down, touches the top of it. |
638 | 01:00:56 --> 01:01:00 | Again, I'm adding four more contracts there, and it rallies up and it goes |
639 | 01:01:00 --> 01:01:04 | into this in here because it's below half of the move or equilibrium. It's |
640 | 01:01:04 --> 01:01:10 | still in a discount. And it's a discount relative to this level here with that |
641 | 01:01:10 --> 01:01:13 | fair value gap. And then I'll add more there. I'll pyramid. So what that is |
642 | 01:01:13 --> 01:01:17 | teaching here today, I taught you how to find the right fair value gaps, how to |
643 | 01:01:17 --> 01:01:22 | qualify and quantify them, not in ambiguous terms, very specific, finite |
644 | 01:01:22 --> 01:01:28 | terms, based on time, how everything comes together, and it just beautifully |
645 | 01:01:28 --> 01:01:33 | dovetails together. But there's no algorithm, right? There's no algorithm |
646 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:39 | in the market rallies and it reaches the clear the buy stops about here, which is |
647 | 01:01:39 --> 01:01:44 | the overnight range. And then it doesn't just go above here by a little bit. It |
648 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:50 | goes above to touch that daily Sibi that sells out of bounds by sound efficiency |
649 | 01:01:50 --> 01:01:53 | the upper quadrant, before it completely fills it in by going all the way up to |
650 | 01:01:53 --> 01:01:57 | here. There's a lot of range still there. And then that range just was |
651 | 01:01:57 --> 01:02:03 | increased by this, dropping down, taking out overnight lows. So my question to |
652 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:10 | you is this, does this make sense to you in terms of defining which fair value |
653 | 01:02:10 --> 01:02:15 | got not? And I know there's some of you that are brand new, or just recently |
654 | 01:02:15 --> 01:02:18 | came onto my stuff and you're thinking, i This doesn't make any sense to me. I |
655 | 01:02:18 --> 01:02:22 | understand that it wouldn't for you because you're too new, but for the |
656 | 01:02:22 --> 01:02:26 | folks that have been dabbling with them, studying them back, testing and looking |
657 | 01:02:26 --> 01:02:29 | for fair value gaps. And you have asked yourself the question all the time, I |
658 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:33 | guarantee you have, how is he picking that fair value guy? Why is he getting |
659 | 01:02:33 --> 01:02:37 | in there? Why is my entries taking off as soon as I get into them? That's the |
660 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:42 | repeating questions that come to me by my paid students. That's the same |
661 | 01:02:42 --> 01:02:45 | questions that come to me by way of the comment section that you don't see, but |
662 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:50 | you can leave a comment. I can see it, but nobody else can see it, because I |
663 | 01:02:50 --> 01:02:54 | don't want all that love fest. And yes, there's people out there saying you're a |
664 | 01:02:54 --> 01:02:57 | fraud. You haven't done this. You haven't done that. I don't care about |
665 | 01:02:57 --> 01:03:01 | that. What I'm showing you is the stuff that works. I'm telling you, when I pick |
666 | 01:03:01 --> 01:03:07 | the fairbay gaps that I trade on, I'm using predominantly this right here. |
667 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:12 | Okay, there's other things that I do to further increase the likelihood of me |
668 | 01:03:12 --> 01:03:18 | being correct about the Fairbank guy, but this in itself, is the easiest go to |
669 | 01:03:18 --> 01:03:22 | strategy plan for you to be able to formulate an approach to saying, Okay, I |
670 | 01:03:22 --> 01:03:27 | trust that the bias is bullish. I trust that the bias is bearish. Based on that |
671 | 01:03:27 --> 01:03:32 | logic, you're simply going to use this information, as I showed here today. |
672 | 01:03:32 --> 01:03:35 | This is not a lecture where you're going to watch it one time and you're going to |
673 | 01:03:35 --> 01:03:38 | understand what I just said, because you're going to need to refer back to it |
674 | 01:03:38 --> 01:03:41 | a few times. You're going to go and look at old data, and then refer back to what |
675 | 01:03:41 --> 01:03:45 | I said here, because I guarantee what I've said here, you're going to think |
676 | 01:03:45 --> 01:03:49 | that I've created an edited format because it went where we had the first |
677 | 01:03:49 --> 01:03:54 | time. Because you you already have some idea in mind what you're reaching for |
678 | 01:03:54 --> 01:03:58 | for a model, and you're trying to take every new little thing I talk about and |
679 | 01:03:58 --> 01:04:02 | press it into that to make it click for you so you can go out there, start |
680 | 01:04:02 --> 01:04:06 | making money. You have to try to defer that, push that aside because, just |
681 | 01:04:06 --> 01:04:10 | because you're now learning more ideas about what makes a fair value gap valid |
682 | 01:04:10 --> 01:04:16 | or not, what happens when that shift in sentiment changes from you're not, |
683 | 01:04:16 --> 01:04:19 | you're not bullish for that morning session or that afternoon session |
684 | 01:04:19 --> 01:04:29 | anymore. What do you do? Then everything that you used here on the upside becomes |
685 | 01:04:29 --> 01:04:32 | what part of a market maker, sell model. So everything over here that would be a |
686 | 01:04:32 --> 01:04:36 | bullish fair value gap will become an inversion, fairy back fair value gap |
687 | 01:04:36 --> 01:04:40 | over here. Anything over here that would be an order block that would be bullish. |
688 | 01:04:40 --> 01:04:48 | Would be a inverted, basically, it would reverse its role and characteristic as a |
689 | 01:04:48 --> 01:04:51 | bare shoulder block. It would repeat. It would reverse its role. |
690 | 01:04:57 --> 01:05:00 | And this is a lower quadrant one. City right here. |
691 | 01:05:14 --> 01:05:18 | Now we have a range, like overnight range, and you define it like that. |
692 | 01:05:19 --> 01:05:24 | Other things you can do is you can do extensions off of that and get an idea |
693 | 01:05:24 --> 01:05:29 | how far it can go for targeting, for partials, for potential reversal |
694 | 01:05:29 --> 01:05:36 | patterns. And what you would do is you simply take the the range the first one |
695 | 01:05:36 --> 01:05:42 | is you always want to reach for is the negative 0.5 level, and that one's here, |
696 | 01:05:42 --> 01:05:46 | and then negative one is one standard deviation which is done and we hit the |
697 | 01:05:46 --> 01:05:50 | lower quadrant on that Sibi on the daily chart. Let's go back out to the daily |
698 | 01:05:50 --> 01:05:54 | chart real quick. Let me take these off for a moment, because there'll be too |
699 | 01:05:54 --> 01:05:56 | many lines on the chart. Otherwise I'm |
700 | 01:06:09 --> 01:06:12 | this candlestick is the city I keep referring to on the daily chart. You can |
701 | 01:06:12 --> 01:06:19 | see up here daily, July 17, 2024 it's a Wednesday. That singular down closed |
702 | 01:06:19 --> 01:06:25 | candle. That's the city. This is the low of it. That candlesticks high. This is |
703 | 01:06:25 --> 01:06:30 | the high of it. This candle sticks low, equilibrium. Lower quadrant is 20,004 89 |
704 | 01:06:31 --> 01:06:41 | the low of it is 410, even, 20,004 89 go back into a one minute chart. 49 is that |
705 | 01:06:41 --> 01:06:48 | level right there? See that? So we traded down to and below equilibrium of |
706 | 01:06:48 --> 01:06:55 | that daily city. And what did it do? There protraction lower, reaching down |
707 | 01:06:55 --> 01:07:02 | to the lower quadrant. That's the low of the daily city right here. I'm |
708 | 01:07:08 --> 01:07:12 | a little bit over my time, so let me go back to yesterday's real quick, and |
709 | 01:07:12 --> 01:07:18 | we'll look at the think I got a chart already set up for this. Give me a |
710 | 01:07:18 --> 01:07:22 | second, a 32nd All |
711 | 01:07:30 --> 01:07:37 | right, so if you follow me on Twitter or X, I shared this yesterday, and I was |
712 | 01:07:37 --> 01:07:46 | out running around with my wife, shopping again. Any excuse for her to |
713 | 01:07:46 --> 01:07:53 | use credit cards, she's gonna jump on honey. We could save 30% if we get this |
714 | 01:07:53 --> 01:07:57 | right here. Yeah, I tell her, I could save 100% if I don't buy it at all. We |
715 | 01:07:57 --> 01:08:04 | don't need that stuff. But you know, that's that's wife, math, ladies, Don't |
716 | 01:08:04 --> 01:08:09 | come at me. Okay, don't come at me. I'm just being honest. Alright, so here we |
717 | 01:08:09 --> 01:08:17 | have the the session yesterday, okay? And Thursday, October 10, 2024, daily |
718 | 01:08:17 --> 01:08:21 | high. So we have done what we went above it here, came back down, went below it, |
719 | 01:08:21 --> 01:08:25 | once more, back above it, once more, below it, and then we rallied back above |
720 | 01:08:26 --> 01:08:31 | and we're keeping what relative equal highs. We have minor buy side, and it's |
721 | 01:08:31 --> 01:08:35 | also what it's an election year. It's bullish. The market's likely to continue |
722 | 01:08:35 --> 01:08:39 | going higher, and we've already explored the likelihood of digging back down into |
723 | 01:08:40 --> 01:08:44 | October 9 daily candle. That's the high of that. So look on your daily chart, |
724 | 01:08:45 --> 01:08:52 | Thursday, October 10 of this year. Note that high, and then we drop back down |
725 | 01:08:52 --> 01:08:55 | into a one minute chart, or in this case, it's 30 seconds. Every every |
726 | 01:08:55 --> 01:09:01 | candlestick on this chart is 30 seconds. So what we're looking at is, I'm not, |
727 | 01:09:01 --> 01:09:04 | I'm not trading Support Resistance, okay? Because the idea of support |
728 | 01:09:04 --> 01:09:10 | resistance would say this, this is the daily high on October 10. We went above |
729 | 01:09:10 --> 01:09:14 | it when it came back down. Test it right here. If we were just simply expecting |
730 | 01:09:14 --> 01:09:19 | the old highs and lows of a previous day or previous week, then that right there |
731 | 01:09:19 --> 01:09:23 | should have turned the market higher and started going higher. And that's what I |
732 | 01:09:23 --> 01:09:27 | expected as a 20 year old, because the books that I read said that that's how |
733 | 01:09:27 --> 01:09:30 | support resistance would work. They give you these perfect examples, these |
734 | 01:09:30 --> 01:09:34 | perfect little things that would create this opportunity, a wonderful repeating |
735 | 01:09:34 --> 01:09:37 | phenomenon, where you can go in and make all the money you'd ever want and quit |
736 | 01:09:37 --> 01:09:42 | your job in two weeks. Okay, I had unrealistic expectations, just like all |
737 | 01:09:42 --> 01:09:45 | of you have when you come to watch my content for the first time. So I'm not a |
738 | 01:09:45 --> 01:09:52 | Support Resistance trader, but I do use the order flow around old highs and old |
739 | 01:09:52 --> 01:09:59 | lows, if you are not aware of the old highs in the last week, every individual |
740 | 01:09:59 --> 01:10:06 | day. Day. You want to know every single daily high and low of the last five days |
741 | 01:10:06 --> 01:10:12 | and at least Friday of last week. You want to know what last week's high and |
742 | 01:10:12 --> 01:10:16 | low was. Those levels are going to give you what I'm going to show you right |
743 | 01:10:16 --> 01:10:19 | here. This is an endless supply of setups. Okay, I want you to sit still |
744 | 01:10:19 --> 01:10:22 | for a second. Put time. Put down your writing instrument for a moment. Okay, |
745 | 01:10:22 --> 01:10:31 | let me do moment. Okay, just think for a second. Think, what would it feel like |
746 | 01:10:31 --> 01:10:38 | if you knew, not, guessed not, was influenced by me or anybody else? What |
747 | 01:10:38 --> 01:10:44 | if you knew how to go into an endless supply of new setups that is never going |
748 | 01:10:44 --> 01:10:49 | to hide from you. It's never going to be changed. They're not going to change |
749 | 01:10:49 --> 01:10:53 | this, okay, this is, this is not something that they're going to change |
750 | 01:10:53 --> 01:10:56 | the algorithm. You're never going to be able to take advantages anymore. This is |
751 | 01:10:56 --> 01:11:00 | always going to be there, folks, okay, I want you to understand that. I want you |
752 | 01:11:00 --> 01:11:04 | to get excited about this part. This is where you can allow your emotions to |
753 | 01:11:04 --> 01:11:09 | come into it. I want you to feel happy and excited, because it's absolutely an |
754 | 01:11:09 --> 01:11:17 | endless supply of setups period. It will never be exhausted, okay, if we're |
755 | 01:11:17 --> 01:11:24 | bullish, if we're expecting higher prices by knowing the highs in the last |
756 | 01:11:24 --> 01:11:27 | five days and at least the previous week's Friday, and then knowing the |
757 | 01:11:27 --> 01:11:32 | previous week's high and low, you will always know where order flow is going to |
758 | 01:11:32 --> 01:11:36 | come in, and all you have to do is wait for the displacement. And what does that |
759 | 01:11:36 --> 01:11:40 | look like? Well, here we have the rally above the high on October 10. That's |
760 | 01:11:40 --> 01:11:44 | this level here. Okay, if you put this on your own chart, this is why I'm I'm |
761 | 01:11:44 --> 01:11:47 | leading parts of this stuff out. So that way, it causes you to have interactive |
762 | 01:11:47 --> 01:11:51 | study where you have to go into your charts highlight the actual high of |
763 | 01:11:51 --> 01:11:57 | October 10, 2024, is high. It's last Thursday. Okay, but putting that chart, |
764 | 01:11:57 --> 01:12:01 | I'm sorry, putting that line on your chart, and then watching how price |
765 | 01:12:01 --> 01:12:06 | gyrates above it. It comes back down. It doesn't stop there and go higher. Even |
766 | 01:12:06 --> 01:12:09 | though it's bullish, it does not stop there and go higher. It does what it |
767 | 01:12:09 --> 01:12:13 | digs back down into the range. That's exactly what you want to see, because |
768 | 01:12:13 --> 01:12:18 | what that's doing is it's offering you the opportunity to study and measure its |
769 | 01:12:18 --> 01:12:22 | willingness to go deeper into that range. Does it want to do so? No. How do |
770 | 01:12:22 --> 01:12:25 | we know that? Because we leave that range and go back above the high of |
771 | 01:12:25 --> 01:12:29 | October 10 again here. And then, what does it do? Do we do we buy it now |
772 | 01:12:29 --> 01:12:34 | because it does this and touches the No. Give it an opportunity to run back down |
773 | 01:12:34 --> 01:12:41 | in does it want to take the relative equal lows here? No, it's it's left the |
774 | 01:12:41 --> 01:12:45 | bait here, because you're being trained to look for relative equal lows to be |
775 | 01:12:45 --> 01:12:49 | traded to. But what happens if it doesn't do it? It's telling you what, |
776 | 01:12:50 --> 01:12:53 | it's not likely to go lower, and if it's not likely to go lower, when you're |
777 | 01:12:53 --> 01:12:58 | already predisposed to expect higher prices, then you're what you're in a buy |
778 | 01:12:58 --> 01:13:03 | program. Then expect protraction higher. You see that here, the market rallies |
779 | 01:13:03 --> 01:13:06 | back above October 10. Now are we looking for the market to come back down |
780 | 01:13:06 --> 01:13:10 | and touch that high like support and resistance? Folks would assume, no, |
781 | 01:13:10 --> 01:13:15 | absolutely not. What we're looking for is any inefficiency on the pass down |
782 | 01:13:16 --> 01:13:19 | that will act as an inversion fair value gap. That's what this is right here. |
783 | 01:13:20 --> 01:13:24 | Now, as it's dropping down, I'm looking at that fair value gap, knowing that if |
784 | 01:13:24 --> 01:13:28 | it's really good, it won't even touch it, because we spent some time in here |
785 | 01:13:28 --> 01:13:32 | and then left it. I'm I'm going long right in here. I'll show you the |
786 | 01:13:32 --> 01:13:36 | executions in a moment. Okay, and then the market rallies up, and it leaves |
787 | 01:13:36 --> 01:13:39 | these relative equal highs. And I'm noting in the video that you can watch |
788 | 01:13:39 --> 01:13:46 | on Twitter, I'm noting these volume imbalances. Volume imbalances are the |
789 | 01:13:46 --> 01:13:51 | most flexible, or it's the PD array of my repertoire that you as the analyst, |
790 | 01:13:51 --> 01:13:55 | you as the trader, you as the implementer behind pushing a button. If |
791 | 01:13:55 --> 01:14:02 | you ever decide to do that, you're going to see price go through these types of |
792 | 01:14:02 --> 01:14:07 | things. Okay? Because it's a measurement of a willingness to see the price |
793 | 01:14:07 --> 01:14:11 | sustain and run high or low. It can be used as an entry. It can be used as a |
794 | 01:14:11 --> 01:14:16 | partial. It can be used as managing your stop loss. But I like looking for these |
795 | 01:14:16 --> 01:14:20 | little, tiny pockets and price action. And it's basically the the absence. If |
796 | 01:14:20 --> 01:14:26 | you look real close, it's the absence between this candlesticks body or open |
797 | 01:14:26 --> 01:14:32 | and this candlesticks close, there is a wick touching, but there's no bodies |
798 | 01:14:32 --> 01:14:35 | there. That's what I'm highlighting in that video. It's got a little music |
799 | 01:14:36 --> 01:14:40 | track added to it on Twitter. Same thing here. Small, little separation between |
800 | 01:14:40 --> 01:14:44 | the candlesticks bodies, there's one in here, but I'm not worried about that |
801 | 01:14:44 --> 01:14:47 | one, because I've framed one here, and I frame one here, and I'm watching how |
802 | 01:14:47 --> 01:14:51 | price behaves. But then this fair value gap, which is what I was aiming as I |
803 | 01:14:51 --> 01:14:56 | entered the first time and added multiple entries on, then when it |
804 | 01:14:56 --> 01:15:00 | dropped down in here, and it closed that initially right to that low. So. I fired |
805 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:03 | it in there again, but I had already typed out that the launch time is now. I |
806 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:07 | said, at 830 the market's going to spool higher. Go watch that recording. You'll |
807 | 01:15:07 --> 01:15:12 | see every annotation just as I typed it. Then everything here is exactly how I |
808 | 01:15:12 --> 01:15:17 | left it when I recorded that live execution, but I timed it and told you |
809 | 01:15:17 --> 01:15:22 | very specifically the launch time is now. Why? How did I know that? How did I |
810 | 01:15:22 --> 01:15:27 | know that was going to happen? Because at 830 if I'm bullish, I want to see the |
811 | 01:15:27 --> 01:15:32 | price drop down to a discount array that's this fair value gap. It could |
812 | 01:15:32 --> 01:15:37 | have went down and touched this inversion fair value gap, and it would |
813 | 01:15:37 --> 01:15:40 | have been fine. It would not have it would not have changed anything. But |
814 | 01:15:40 --> 01:15:45 | because it didn't touch it here, and it created this fair value gap, and it |
815 | 01:15:45 --> 01:15:49 | already started to run up and left these relative equal highs. I know it's just |
816 | 01:15:49 --> 01:15:54 | coming back down in here to redeliver into here. That's why you'll see when |
817 | 01:15:54 --> 01:15:57 | I'm adding the executions on the chart, you'll see that that's where I fired in |
818 | 01:15:57 --> 01:16:02 | and added my last portion. And I already anticipated by saying that the launch |
819 | 01:16:02 --> 01:16:06 | time is now hits. It stops the tick and starts to rally up. And then I'm |
820 | 01:16:06 --> 01:16:11 | watching do these volume imbalances support price. It trades up to it. Look |
821 | 01:16:11 --> 01:16:15 | at the bodies you're respecting. It then comes back down. Look at the bodies. See |
822 | 01:16:15 --> 01:16:19 | that? See you're see the assholes and asshats. They're watching these wicks. |
823 | 01:16:19 --> 01:16:22 | And they're looking at this. Look at this stuff. It doesn't have any rhyme or |
824 | 01:16:22 --> 01:16:25 | reason why. Reason. What's going on. You're a fucking clown. Look real close. |
825 | 01:16:25 --> 01:16:29 | You see the bodies. See what those bodies are telling you. It's respecting |
826 | 01:16:29 --> 01:16:33 | that inefficiency right there between these two candlestick bodies. That's |
827 | 01:16:33 --> 01:16:38 | exactly what I'm watching. That's algorithmic price delivery. That's the |
828 | 01:16:38 --> 01:16:44 | very thing that I'm looking for, and if price runs away from that, then I know |
829 | 01:16:44 --> 01:16:48 | that if I wanted to, I could add more when it's inside that little volume |
830 | 01:16:48 --> 01:16:52 | imbalance there, and add more to it and then rally up. Or I could take this drop |
831 | 01:16:52 --> 01:16:56 | down in here and trade this inefficiency or fair value gap. And that could have |
832 | 01:16:56 --> 01:17:02 | been an entry. Why? Because this volume imbalance is here, and I'm trading in a |
833 | 01:17:02 --> 01:17:05 | fair value gap that's below that volume of balance. That means when a discount |
834 | 01:17:05 --> 01:17:10 | throwing a market that's bullish after the algorithm starts firing at 830 and |
835 | 01:17:10 --> 01:17:10 | then |
836 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:15 | volume and balance right there. I was going to annotate that, but I had missed |
837 | 01:17:15 --> 01:17:18 | it because I was looking at my dogs at the time, and I didn't want to go and |
838 | 01:17:18 --> 01:17:21 | add anything to it. But anyone watching that trade just as well as you can see |
839 | 01:17:21 --> 01:17:24 | it right here. You can see it there. It's being utilized right there, |
840 | 01:17:24 --> 01:17:28 | consequent encroachment. That's the midpoint of this separation. These |
841 | 01:17:28 --> 01:17:33 | little pockets, okay, these little, tiny, little separations in the volume |
842 | 01:17:34 --> 01:17:39 | of the candlestick. You cannot get this information in any other aspect of |
843 | 01:17:39 --> 01:17:44 | charting. So when you listen to these clowns, these fucking clueless idiots, |
844 | 01:17:44 --> 01:17:48 | these fucking dweebs, okay, these people that have zero understanding, zero |
845 | 01:17:48 --> 01:17:53 | understanding by Price Books, they'll say time based charts are trash trying. |
846 | 01:17:53 --> 01:17:58 | Time based charts are useless. You have no idea what you're talking about. You |
847 | 01:17:58 --> 01:18:02 | have literally no idea. No one's ever told you how to use a time based chart |
848 | 01:18:02 --> 01:18:06 | until I started talking about it. And holy shit, could I just step into |
849 | 01:18:06 --> 01:18:09 | narcissistic power shit right there? Didn't, well, guess what? Scoop up and |
850 | 01:18:09 --> 01:18:11 | swallow because it's the truth. No one ever told you to look at the |
851 | 01:18:11 --> 01:18:15 | candlesticks like I'm teaching you to look at them. No one's ever told you to |
852 | 01:18:15 --> 01:18:19 | focus on the elements of time, using these candlesticks with this information |
853 | 01:18:19 --> 01:18:23 | before. It's never been done before because I codified it. This is my |
854 | 01:18:23 --> 01:18:26 | fucking shit. Okay? And when you guys are making these fucking videos, and I'm |
855 | 01:18:26 --> 01:18:29 | coming out here doing it over every single day, over and over and over |
856 | 01:18:29 --> 01:18:34 | again, I'm laughing at you. I'm laughing at you because you're taking the bait. |
857 | 01:18:34 --> 01:18:37 | You're doing exactly what I want. Because more people are coming here, and |
858 | 01:18:37 --> 01:18:40 | they're watching the technical science being taught, and more people this rest |
859 | 01:18:40 --> 01:18:44 | of this year are gonna be making more money using this shit, more money, more |
860 | 01:18:44 --> 01:18:48 | testimonies coming forward. So keep bringing them here. I love it. You're |
861 | 01:18:48 --> 01:18:54 | working for free. Keep them coming. Engagement farming done, right? So I |
862 | 01:18:54 --> 01:19:00 | want to take a look at the executions here. Okay, this is probably gonna be a |
863 | 01:19:00 --> 01:19:06 | little jarring for some of you. So as the market's trading and we're dropping |
864 | 01:19:06 --> 01:19:09 | down, okay? And you can see clearly this is not Market Replay, okay, see that. |
865 | 01:19:09 --> 01:19:16 | Can't do that on Market Replay, but the the entries in here look inside this |
866 | 01:19:16 --> 01:19:25 | fair value gap. It's in the lower half of that fair value got that that is at |
867 | 01:19:25 --> 01:19:28 | the top as it's hitting it, right here, in this volume imbalance, as it's |
868 | 01:19:28 --> 01:19:31 | trading down here, I'm trying to time it as it hits it, but it's kind of it's |
869 | 01:19:31 --> 01:19:36 | kind of difficult when you're doing on a 32nd chart, I'm doing it where I'm |
870 | 01:19:36 --> 01:19:41 | pushing into the the price action as it's going in a direction I want it to |
871 | 01:19:41 --> 01:19:44 | go, which is opposed to the direction I'm trading in. So in other words, I'm |
872 | 01:19:44 --> 01:19:49 | trying to enter when the market's going down. I'm never trying to go in when the |
873 | 01:19:49 --> 01:19:54 | market's going up. If the candlesticks painting bullishly, I don't want to be |
874 | 01:19:54 --> 01:20:00 | going in after the candlesticks started going higher. It. Like, open like, in |
875 | 01:20:00 --> 01:20:04 | this case, here we have the candlestick opening up here and trading down. That's |
876 | 01:20:04 --> 01:20:09 | ideal. I'm sorry I said that wrong. It opens up down here and trades higher. So |
877 | 01:20:09 --> 01:20:14 | it's creating a bullish candlestick. In this candlestick I'm trying to trade as |
878 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:18 | it's fluctuating around and in close proximity to that volume of balance. |
879 | 01:20:18 --> 01:20:23 | That's what I'm trying to aim for. And over here, same premise. I'm trying to |
880 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:28 | time it as it's entering into that volume imbalance. Here, I'm trading |
881 | 01:20:28 --> 01:20:33 | inside of this little separation. I'm trying to get that little return back |
882 | 01:20:33 --> 01:20:40 | into that candlestick as well. Here, similar down here, I'm trying to time it |
883 | 01:20:40 --> 01:20:44 | as it's trading down into this fair value gap. All of these could be further |
884 | 01:20:44 --> 01:20:48 | refined if I was willing to use a limit order, but I'm trying to force myself to |
885 | 01:20:48 --> 01:20:53 | use every aspect of proving it's not Market Replay. So that's why the open |
886 | 01:20:54 --> 01:21:00 | and close, or the buying entry. So button for buying this shit, basically, |
887 | 01:21:02 --> 01:21:06 | you can't do. You don't see that in Market Replay. Okay, so it's actually |
888 | 01:21:06 --> 01:21:12 | better. I just did that, but I'm using this way of showing it to you, so that |
889 | 01:21:12 --> 01:21:16 | way anybody that understands trading view knows that this is not Market |
890 | 01:21:16 --> 01:21:22 | Replay, and anybody, anybody can do it in Market Replay and make it look good. |
891 | 01:21:22 --> 01:21:29 | Anybody can do that, but I'm teaching you how to read 32nd chart. Okay. Why |
892 | 01:21:29 --> 01:21:32 | 32nd chart? Why not a 15 second chart? Because the price is a little bit |
893 | 01:21:32 --> 01:21:37 | cleaner, little bit more refined, a 15 second chart's a little bit more spotty |
894 | 01:21:37 --> 01:21:41 | in here, spotty means that there's a lot more volume imbalances. I'd like to have |
895 | 01:21:41 --> 01:21:45 | a chart, and this is for your notes. This is the part where you write down. I |
896 | 01:21:45 --> 01:21:50 | like to use a time frame. It's sub one minute that doesn't have a plethora or a |
897 | 01:21:50 --> 01:21:56 | exaggerated number of volume imbalances. I want to have like a few of them, so I |
898 | 01:21:56 --> 01:22:00 | want to be able to see them if they form. But if I'm looking at a, like a |
899 | 01:22:00 --> 01:22:04 | five second chart, I'm gonna have a whole lot more to choose from, and I |
900 | 01:22:04 --> 01:22:09 | don't want that. So the 15 second, I didn't like it, so I focused on the 32nd |
901 | 01:22:10 --> 01:22:16 | and I'm only using the 32nd chart just to kind of like drive home the the |
902 | 01:22:16 --> 01:22:21 | emphasis that I am not a one minute Chart Trader. I'm not a five minute |
903 | 01:22:21 --> 01:22:25 | Chart Trader, I'm not a 60 minute 60 minute Chart Trader, I'm a price trader, |
904 | 01:22:26 --> 01:22:34 | I'm a time based price delivery trader, an algorithmic delivery trader. So I'm |
905 | 01:22:34 --> 01:22:39 | I'm looking at price in a way where I'm expecting it to behave a certain way |
906 | 01:22:39 --> 01:22:44 | with these repeating phenomenon that I titled PD arrays around specific |
907 | 01:22:44 --> 01:22:49 | elements of time. So because 830 here is the 830 window right there, this |
908 | 01:22:49 --> 01:22:52 | candlestick, when we get close to the top of the Fairbank, I'm getting in |
909 | 01:22:52 --> 01:22:56 | there and then finally hammering it as it's creating that down closed candle |
910 | 01:22:56 --> 01:23:01 | right there. I'm hitting it, and there's the entry at the time. I'm telling you |
911 | 01:23:01 --> 01:23:05 | that the launch time is now, so it drops down, and then it right from there, |
912 | 01:23:06 --> 01:23:10 | creates these little, uh, confirming that I'm on side. That's what these |
913 | 01:23:10 --> 01:23:15 | little candlestick bodies are telling me, folks, okay, I'm on side, I'm on |
914 | 01:23:15 --> 01:23:19 | side, and then I'm expecting price to rip, and it does. And then you start |
915 | 01:23:19 --> 01:23:23 | seeing it run up. It gets this low volume of bounce tagged right there, and |
916 | 01:23:23 --> 01:23:27 | rallies up. And then there's the objective now I could have held for |
917 | 01:23:27 --> 01:23:31 | longer. Okay, there's a joker on Twitter who likes to come after the fact all the |
918 | 01:23:31 --> 01:23:34 | time. You never see a stop loss in his trades. You never see him execute |
919 | 01:23:34 --> 01:23:38 | either, but he's always got some kind of screenshot that's kind of lame. Show |
920 | 01:23:38 --> 01:23:41 | your execution while you're doing it. Move a stop loss. You don't have a stop |
921 | 01:23:41 --> 01:23:45 | loss in there because you're using something that you don't need to trust. |
922 | 01:23:45 --> 01:23:48 | Okay? I have a stop loss in every single one of my executions. It's always there. |
923 | 01:23:48 --> 01:23:52 | It's always being managed. And everybody sees the repeating phenomenon and |
924 | 01:23:52 --> 01:23:56 | routine that I'm using. I'm not rushing it to break even. I'm not rushing it to |
925 | 01:23:56 --> 01:24:00 | strangle the profit. Okay, but yesterday, I couldn't stay the babysit |
926 | 01:24:00 --> 01:24:04 | the rest of the position. I told you last week that 20,005 38 was our |
927 | 01:24:04 --> 01:24:07 | objective. It didn't trade there last week. But guess what it did yesterday. |
928 | 01:24:08 --> 01:24:13 | Traded to 20,005 38 it did that I had limit order to get me out there. I had |
929 | 01:24:13 --> 01:24:16 | enough time to compress it, throw a music track on there, and then out the |
930 | 01:24:16 --> 01:24:22 | door I went. So I was not able, was not able to sit and ride all this up and |
931 | 01:24:22 --> 01:24:27 | babysit it. My wife asked me to stay off the phone for the time we were out, and |
932 | 01:24:27 --> 01:24:35 | I honored that request. Okay, so in the afternoon, a little bit later, what do |
933 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:36 | you see here? |
934 | 01:24:41 --> 01:24:53 | What's this? Who's this? The fairba. I got Sibi market trades up into it. I'm |
935 | 01:24:53 --> 01:25:05 | entering again on 32nd chart. There. To my fills and it drops down, I'm willing |
936 | 01:25:05 --> 01:25:11 | to see it come back up in to this breaker. So that means I have to afford |
937 | 01:25:11 --> 01:25:14 | myself what the likelihood of going into drawdown. But if it trades back there, |
938 | 01:25:14 --> 01:25:18 | I'm going to add more to it, but I need a little bit more information. Should it |
939 | 01:25:18 --> 01:25:21 | do? So what information is that? Well, what's trading up into that quadrant? |
940 | 01:25:21 --> 01:25:29 | Level breaks lower, creates another fair value gap entry, I'm waiting for the |
941 | 01:25:29 --> 01:25:36 | market to do what show a willingness to take buy, stops there at a quadrant, |
942 | 01:25:37 --> 01:25:45 | breaks fair value gap entry, same thing here. I'm looking at this wick. I'm |
943 | 01:25:45 --> 01:25:49 | trying to time it with this fair value gap being traded to, I want to get in |
944 | 01:25:49 --> 01:25:57 | there at that wick, conco encroachment right here, and that's a whole lot of |
945 | 01:25:57 --> 01:26:08 | stuff, and get it down to just to middle level. It's funny and it's fun. So much. |
946 | 01:26:08 --> 01:26:12 | This is so much better than college. Some of you guys have that are younger, |
947 | 01:26:12 --> 01:26:15 | like your parents may be listening. What the hell do you say? You need to stop |
948 | 01:26:15 --> 01:26:18 | listen this guy. I'm paying too much for this college, so I'm trying to time it |
949 | 01:26:18 --> 01:26:23 | right there, to consequent coaching that wick right there, adding more to it. And |
950 | 01:26:23 --> 01:26:29 | then I shared live as it was, aiming for the sell side below here, knowing that |
951 | 01:26:29 --> 01:26:34 | we had a abbreviated session yesterday because of the holiday, and I wanted to |
952 | 01:26:34 --> 01:26:37 | get out when it took that cell side there, because it would most likely draw |
953 | 01:26:37 --> 01:26:40 | back up into the middle of the range between here and here, worst case |
954 | 01:26:40 --> 01:26:44 | scenario and best case scenario, we could come back up and try to take that |
955 | 01:26:44 --> 01:26:47 | high out. So I didn't want to write any of that in. So I went short. Added more |
956 | 01:26:47 --> 01:26:52 | there, and then the fill as it was aiming for this low I want to make sure |
957 | 01:26:52 --> 01:26:55 | I get out so I had the limit order just above it. So there you go. That's low |
958 | 01:26:55 --> 01:26:59 | hanging fruit objective. That's the level I'm looking for. The sell side |
959 | 01:26:59 --> 01:27:04 | below. That's what I want to see it trade to. But my exits are sliding on |
960 | 01:27:04 --> 01:27:10 | into home. I don't require that load be taken out. Why? Because I might be |
961 | 01:27:10 --> 01:27:14 | wrong. Because it's the holiday. They may not want to come back down in there. |
962 | 01:27:14 --> 01:27:17 | They may, may, they may want to do that at six o'clock, restart in the |
963 | 01:27:17 --> 01:27:22 | afternoon, or any time when they when they resume trading again. So that's |
964 | 01:27:22 --> 01:27:31 | where my exit was there, and then that's the business. So let's take this back |
965 | 01:27:31 --> 01:27:32 | over here. And I |
966 | 01:27:39 --> 01:27:48 | think that's going to be it for today. This is a first presented fair value gap |
967 | 01:27:48 --> 01:27:55 | from last week. I don't recall what day it is, but it was, I think it was on the |
968 | 01:27:55 --> 01:27:58 | second half of the week, so either Wednesday or Thursday. Look at that, and |
969 | 01:27:58 --> 01:28:02 | you'll see that that's what that is. Another reason why you should annotate |
970 | 01:28:02 --> 01:28:06 | your your charts with these labels like this. I don't need to do that because I |
971 | 01:28:06 --> 01:28:11 | break my stuff down on the notepad. But that's a first presenter. Fair Value got |
972 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:16 | to these two, these two dark, thick lines there. So I covered a lot of stuff |
973 | 01:28:16 --> 01:28:20 | today. I talked about how I picked the right fair value gap. What constitutes |
974 | 01:28:21 --> 01:28:24 | qualifying the fair value gap. I talked about the overnight range. How to use |
975 | 01:28:24 --> 01:28:30 | that. When is it useful? When is it not useful? If it's part of, if you're large |
976 | 01:28:30 --> 01:28:33 | part of a larger consolidation, you're going to grade it. If you're doing a |
977 | 01:28:33 --> 01:28:38 | market protraction overnight, you're not going to do that at all. And you'll have |
978 | 01:28:38 --> 01:28:42 | to trade differently. And also, if you have a market retraction overnight, that |
979 | 01:28:42 --> 01:28:45 | usually puts you on the sidelines in the morning session, so you already had a |
980 | 01:28:45 --> 01:28:51 | big move overnight. So expect, excuse me, the New York session to be either a |
981 | 01:28:51 --> 01:28:54 | market reversal profile or consolidation, meaning that unless |
982 | 01:28:54 --> 01:28:58 | you're very versed with reversal patterns, don't trade the morning |
983 | 01:28:58 --> 01:29:01 | session if you have an overnight trending market and then wait for a |
984 | 01:29:01 --> 01:29:05 | launch reversal, or pm session trade, or trade the last hour trade. So there's a |
985 | 01:29:05 --> 01:29:09 | whole lot of conditions there that helps you. Should have helped you rather |
986 | 01:29:10 --> 01:29:14 | define when you should expect something to form, when you should sit still. When |
987 | 01:29:14 --> 01:29:17 | should you feel comfortable sitting still? And why should you feel |
988 | 01:29:17 --> 01:29:21 | comfortable sitting still? Also, where the fair value gaps are best? What's the |
989 | 01:29:21 --> 01:29:24 | best ones? What's the ones I'm I'm going to be trading at, what's the one that I |
990 | 01:29:24 --> 01:29:31 | have elected to trade on? And it's based on premium and discount. It's based on a |
991 | 01:29:31 --> 01:29:35 | previous range that the algorithm will refer back to. It's not ambiguous. It's |
992 | 01:29:35 --> 01:29:40 | not some kind of contrivance, you know, made up stuff. It's something that |
993 | 01:29:40 --> 01:29:43 | you're going to go back in a chart to see over and over again, repeating |
994 | 01:29:43 --> 01:29:48 | constantly, always there, always there. And what happens if you don't see these |
995 | 01:29:48 --> 01:29:53 | elements in price action, then you have manual intervention. That means you |
996 | 01:29:53 --> 01:29:56 | should sit on your hands and don't do anything if you're if the pvar that |
997 | 01:29:56 --> 01:30:00 | you're highlighting are not responding and respecting price. Is the way they |
998 | 01:30:00 --> 01:30:03 | should remember inefficiencies, fair value gaps. You don't want to see them |
999 | 01:30:03 --> 01:30:08 | hanging around in them, trade into them, leave. And if you have defined your fair |
1000 | 01:30:08 --> 01:30:12 | value gaps based on your bias with the overnight range, as I showed you here by |
1001 | 01:30:12 --> 01:30:16 | grading it, you know the general proximity of where a fair value gap or |
1002 | 01:30:16 --> 01:30:20 | order, block or breaker or stop run is going to form. All of the PD arrays are |
1003 | 01:30:20 --> 01:30:24 | going to gravitate around these levels. Don't just think it's just fair value. |
1004 | 01:30:24 --> 01:30:29 | It's not just that. It's whatever PB array that's going to be given to you at |
1005 | 01:30:29 --> 01:30:36 | that time, with price being utilized for that that purpose, meaning during the |
1006 | 01:30:36 --> 01:30:40 | macro or 830 because there's the only departure. It's always the 50 minute |
1007 | 01:30:40 --> 01:30:44 | after to 10 minute after, that's the element of time when the price is going |
1008 | 01:30:44 --> 01:30:47 | to start spooling during the pre market sessions. There's several hours there |
1009 | 01:30:47 --> 01:30:53 | that you can do that with, but there's one outlier. It's the 838 30 does its |
1010 | 01:30:53 --> 01:30:57 | own thing. That's when the algorithm comes online and it's full force just |
1011 | 01:30:57 --> 01:31:02 | run, because it's going to push price around for that first hour ahead of 930 |
1012 | 01:31:02 --> 01:31:07 | opening. That's what it's doing. That's its function. Okay, so, and it's also |
1013 | 01:31:07 --> 01:31:11 | allowing a lot of orders to be pushed through when there's economic data. |
1014 | 01:31:11 --> 01:31:15 | Remember, I was telling you earlier how the dealers that are facilitating and |
1015 | 01:31:15 --> 01:31:19 | executing the orders for large entities that are not necessarily always trading |
1016 | 01:31:19 --> 01:31:23 | for the purpose of trading for profit. They're not out there trading competing |
1017 | 01:31:23 --> 01:31:30 | against you. They just are holding risk or their window dressing their |
1018 | 01:31:30 --> 01:31:35 | portfolio. They're cycling through and reappropriating things in other assets |
1019 | 01:31:35 --> 01:31:38 | classes and other other instruments. So if they're trying to unload something or |
1020 | 01:31:38 --> 01:31:44 | acquire it, the dealer will facilitate their requirements and expectations by |
1021 | 01:31:44 --> 01:31:47 | pushing the orders through with these very high volume times. And that's |
1022 | 01:31:47 --> 01:31:51 | what's going on. Okay, that's exactly what's going on. You're not going to see |
1023 | 01:31:51 --> 01:31:54 | it on your fucking books. You're not going to hear some Joe Schmo on the |
1024 | 01:31:54 --> 01:31:57 | fucking internet tell you this is what is going on, but that's exactly what's |
1025 | 01:31:57 --> 01:32:00 | going on. Okay, so when you had this perfect storm of all this order flow |
1026 | 01:32:00 --> 01:32:06 | coming in that is not causing the market going down, they're utilizing that high |
1027 | 01:32:06 --> 01:32:11 | volume, okay, not high volume, that high traffic time, where there's more |
1028 | 01:32:11 --> 01:32:16 | participation. It's easy to throw those orders into the marketplace. They're |
1029 | 01:32:16 --> 01:32:20 | they're consumed quickly. And it doesn't mean that the market's going to go |
1030 | 01:32:20 --> 01:32:23 | really high or really low, because they push that volume in. Remember that big |
1031 | 01:32:23 --> 01:32:27 | volume is being broken up throughout the day, throughout the morning, throughout |
1032 | 01:32:27 --> 01:32:32 | the several hours they're pushing those orders in. You're not going to get a |
1033 | 01:32:32 --> 01:32:37 | company like I don't even want to put a person's or company name out there. It's |
1034 | 01:32:37 --> 01:32:41 | just a large conglomerate, large entity that would be trading very, very large. |
1035 | 01:32:42 --> 01:32:45 | Their entire order is not getting pushed through on one one pass through. They're |
1036 | 01:32:45 --> 01:32:51 | not just saying, Hey, you sell me, you know, $15 billion worth of Spoos. You |
1037 | 01:32:51 --> 01:32:55 | know, at the market, they're never doing it. That's never happening, okay? So |
1038 | 01:32:55 --> 01:32:59 | what they'll do is they, they know that their dealer has been given |
1039 | 01:32:59 --> 01:33:07 | instructions, okay to facilitate that request, but average cost needs to be a |
1040 | 01:33:07 --> 01:33:12 | part of it. They're not willing to have this position either accumulated or |
1041 | 01:33:12 --> 01:33:18 | distributed without at least factoring in some measure of value that they're |
1042 | 01:33:18 --> 01:33:23 | hoping to hold on to or acquire in purchasing it. So that's what's really |
1043 | 01:33:23 --> 01:33:27 | going on, that's behind the scenes. That's what's going on with these times, |
1044 | 01:33:27 --> 01:33:32 | and what the order flow is coming through, it's doing. And that's not |
1045 | 01:33:32 --> 01:33:35 | going to cause price to go up and down. It's just going to be that much more of |
1046 | 01:33:36 --> 01:33:39 | Time and Sales being booked and printed. But the price is going to go where the |
1047 | 01:33:39 --> 01:33:43 | price is going to go, and they have no control over it. You don't have any |
1048 | 01:33:43 --> 01:33:49 | control over it. And we're looking for the maximum damage. Where can it move |
1049 | 01:33:49 --> 01:33:55 | the most to hurt whoever's been making money? Okay? So I would love to keep can |
1050 | 01:33:55 --> 01:33:59 | talk. Keep on talking. I really want to. I've already went over more than I want |
1051 | 01:33:59 --> 01:34:02 | to do my time. So I'm going to close this one. Wish you all very pleasant |
1052 | 01:34:02 --> 01:34:07 | day. I will be back with you tomorrow, Lord willing, at 925, ish tomorrow, |
1053 | 01:34:07 --> 01:34:11 | we'll meet again, and I'll give you some information about macros and |
1054 | 01:34:11 --> 01:34:13 | algorithmic. Parcel Larry, until talk to you, then be safe. You. |