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ICT YT - 2024-10-08 - ICT Tutelage Journal Log Oct 7

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:30
1 00:00:14 --> 00:00:20 ICT: Hi, Caleb, this is a 15 minute time frame on NASDAQ December contract, and
2 00:00:20 --> 00:00:28 when I take a look at the opening range gap, all right, so that's what we're
3 00:00:28 --> 00:00:34 seeing here in this light blue, turquoise, blue, colored rectangle mid
4 00:00:34 --> 00:00:39 gap. It's consequent encroachment. Since we opened lower we have a discount gap
5 00:00:39 --> 00:00:47 7% of time. We're looking for a return back into half gap by 10 o'clock. And
6 00:00:47 --> 00:00:54 then we have the market consolidating, but making lower lows as it does so. So
7 00:00:54 --> 00:01:01 it was underneath a heavy measure of distribution. Then we have a positive
8 00:01:01 --> 00:01:05 amount cell sign and efficiency down here, the market ultimately reached for
9 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 my focus is down here, so we'll see what we get. In regards to that, for this
10 00:01:10 --> 00:01:15 week, we have some pretty heavy new CPI and PPI later in the week. All right,
11 00:01:19 --> 00:01:22 here's a five minute chart. You start to see a little bit more details in here.
12 00:01:22 --> 00:01:26 Open here. Opening price at 930 Eastern Time, settlement price on Friday at
13 00:01:26 --> 00:01:33 4:14pm Eastern Time and again. Everything in here was leaning towards a
14 00:01:33 --> 00:01:36 pm session, as I mentioned in the live stream. Watch that live stream again.
15 00:01:36 --> 00:01:41 You'll see that it is showing prognostication about the afternoon
16 00:01:41 --> 00:01:45 being a little bit more low resistance liquidity. This is high resistance
17 00:01:45 --> 00:01:48 liquidity conditions. That means it's going to be a lot of back and forth. And
18 00:01:48 --> 00:01:52 then finally, the market does release later on in the afternoon. It does get a
19 00:01:52 --> 00:02:01 little bit looser and runs rather aggressively lower. Right. You see the
20 00:02:01 --> 00:02:04 bodies here. This is what I was referring to, and why I was suggesting
21 00:02:04 --> 00:02:09 that the pm session was most likely going to see us trading lower to attack
22 00:02:09 --> 00:02:12 the sell side. Now we made no real attempt to get up in the upper half,
23 00:02:12 --> 00:02:17 only the wicks were doing so. And initially I drew the first business
24 00:02:17 --> 00:02:20 everybody got here like this, because I wanted to see the wick, the wick
25 00:02:21 --> 00:02:26 difference in here and how often it worked inside that. This is the actual
26 00:02:27 --> 00:02:32 first presenter fair value gap, because has it blowing the balance at top and
27 00:02:32 --> 00:02:36 blowing the balance at the bottom, all right? So we'll take a look at the
28 00:02:36 --> 00:02:43 afternoon. Now with this first presenter fair value gap. I have the 130 to two
29 00:02:43 --> 00:02:48 o'clock that's the opening range for pm session. So whatever PD array forms
30 00:02:48 --> 00:02:52 inside that 30 minutes, that's what's going to be used for the afternoon
31 00:02:52 --> 00:02:58 trend. Okay, so whatever setup is going to form, it's many times going to be
32 00:02:58 --> 00:03:02 linked to something that occurs between the 130 to two o'clock Eastern time. As
33 00:03:02 --> 00:03:07 you see here, we have a breaker. So we have a breaker here, and it also trades
34 00:03:07 --> 00:03:11 up to the bottom of that first percentage of everybody got low. So
35 00:03:11 --> 00:03:17 extend that into the afternoon, we can see a mid range of the lowest downpost
36 00:03:17 --> 00:03:22 Candle makes the bearish breaker inside of the 130 to two o'clock. So half of
37 00:03:22 --> 00:03:29 that breaker is also the low of the first presented fair value gaps low. So
38 00:03:29 --> 00:03:35 if we take a closer look at that, you can see that zoomed in here on a 32nd
39 00:03:35 --> 00:03:41 chart, I had a volume imbalance in mind, and I was looking at this as a turtle
40 00:03:41 --> 00:03:44 suit. As I mentioned last week in the lectures, high resistance liquidity run
41 00:03:44 --> 00:03:49 conditions is a perfect storm for turtle suit shorts and longs. In this case,
42 00:03:49 --> 00:03:52 that's indicated in the live stream this morning that we would be looking for
43 00:03:52 --> 00:03:56 lower prices and that the market would be a little bit looser, favorable, more
44 00:03:56 --> 00:04:00 favorable. We can see that actually happening here. I tried to do a limit
45 00:04:00 --> 00:04:04 order, and I'm going to put a link in the comment section of the video, so
46 00:04:04 --> 00:04:08 that way people can go to the Twitter account and see how I was treating it,
47 00:04:08 --> 00:04:13 actually. But I wanted to go short on a turtle suit run above here, my limit
48 00:04:13 --> 00:04:17 order was a little too rich, so I was demanding too much precision, and it
49 00:04:17 --> 00:04:21 wasn't able to give it to me. So I had to use the volume imbalances in here,
50 00:04:21 --> 00:04:25 and we'll take a closer look at that. But also you can see how it worked, the
51 00:04:25 --> 00:04:29 breaker and the bottom of the first presented fair value gap low and drops
52 00:04:29 --> 00:04:30 precipitously.
53 00:04:37 --> 00:04:41 All right, you can hear, you can see the executions in here, reaching down into
54 00:04:41 --> 00:04:46 the pools of liquidity. And I'm going to go in a little bit deeper and let you
55 00:04:46 --> 00:04:50 see some more details here. All right, so you can see that this entry here is
56 00:04:50 --> 00:04:55 inside that volume imbalance right there, and the actual high is actually
57 00:04:55 --> 00:04:59 two ticks above that. So the high of that candlestick comes in at 20,001 21
58 00:04:59 --> 00:05:04 even. So I was marketing in as it was happening. And then the other entry here
59 00:05:04 --> 00:05:08 was just based on this small little volume and balance as well. So I was
60 00:05:08 --> 00:05:13 trying to time that you can see the relative equal highs here. That is a
61 00:05:13 --> 00:05:17 turtle soup. But my entry did not get filled. And I was looking for this
62 00:05:17 --> 00:05:20 volume and balance to be a little bit more of a factor. And it wasn't able to
63 00:05:20 --> 00:05:28 do so. And ultimately, you can see there's alternate entry models. Here. We
64 00:05:28 --> 00:05:33 have the inversion fair value gap here with a volume imbalance, and you can see
65 00:05:33 --> 00:05:37 it trading up into that. So that could have been an entry model for you, where
66 00:05:37 --> 00:05:40 you could simply use the bearish order block here with the change in the state
67 00:05:40 --> 00:05:43 of delivery, which is that opening price, that's what changing the state of
68 00:05:43 --> 00:05:47 delivery is when it's bearish, that candlesticks opening price, when it
69 00:05:47 --> 00:05:50 trades back up to here, that would have been an entry. This could have been an
70 00:05:50 --> 00:05:53 entry. This could have been an entry, and this could have been an entry, and
71 00:05:53 --> 00:05:59 then ultimately trading back up into anything like a consequence encroachment
72 00:05:59 --> 00:06:03 of this wick also could have been used there as well. Model 2022, is right here
73 00:06:03 --> 00:06:09 as well. So you have a high breaking up, short term low shift in market structure
74 00:06:09 --> 00:06:14 here. They got there, stop a low there. And that could have been your alternate
75 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 entry models as well. But for you, Caleb, none of this is for you, because
76 00:06:18 --> 00:06:19 it's all afternoon session. You