Skip to Content

ICT YT - 2024-10-04 - Oct 3 Market Review

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:30
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:22 ICT: All right, so broken in a weekly chart here. And if you recall, at the
2 00:00:22 --> 00:00:25 beginning of the week on Monday's live stream, I walked you through the top
3 00:00:25 --> 00:00:30 down analysis. I told you how we traded up into this premium sell side of
4 00:00:30 --> 00:00:34 balance by side and efficiency. And we started this week here up around the
5 00:00:34 --> 00:00:39 high end of the candles opening price. And I mentioned before we cheated down
6 00:00:39 --> 00:00:43 here that this is where we would likely draw into this boss and a bounce. Also
7 00:00:43 --> 00:00:50 efficiency this candle here, and we have seen that this week, the daily chart,
8 00:00:50 --> 00:00:55 again, same imbalance on the weekly you can see we've worked that several times
9 00:00:55 --> 00:01:02 so far this week, and there's an inefficiency down here. And I think that
10 00:01:03 --> 00:01:09 before we get there, we could potentially trade below these lows. Now,
11 00:01:10 --> 00:01:17 tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll, that is a highly manipulated day. So the data, in
12 00:01:17 --> 00:01:26 my opinion, is not as important because it's already baked into price, but the
13 00:01:26 --> 00:01:32 sentiment aspects that that number captures the minds of of investors and
14 00:01:32 --> 00:01:36 causes them to feel either bullish or bearish or unravels their present
15 00:01:36 --> 00:01:40 bullish embarrassness If they're holding positions. So it's going to be a
16 00:01:40 --> 00:01:45 carnival ride like it always is, and at 830 tomorrow, everything's going to be
17 00:01:45 --> 00:01:55 moving around, a lot of volatility, but I think that going into next week, we
18 00:01:55 --> 00:02:00 travel to here and most likely try to work down inside this inefficiency right
19 00:02:00 --> 00:02:06 there. If I'm wrong, then it's going to need to trade above this candlesticks
20 00:02:06 --> 00:02:13 open for me to be bullish. So until that happens, this candlesticks opening price
21 00:02:13 --> 00:02:22 or lower, I'm bearish. Alright? My students know that my classic point of
22 00:02:22 --> 00:02:28 view for a new trader, new student is trade on Monday of the week of Non Farm
23 00:02:28 --> 00:02:33 Payroll. Trade on Tuesday, don't trade on Wednesday, don't trade on Thursday,
24 00:02:34 --> 00:02:38 don't trade on Friday. Alright, here's Thursday's trading. Here on a 50 minute
25 00:02:38 --> 00:02:45 time frame, here's Wednesday's trading and here's Tuesday's trading. So you can
26 00:02:45 --> 00:02:51 see Tuesday much better in terms of price delivery, Wednesday consolidation,
27 00:02:52 --> 00:02:56 Thursday consolidation. This is graphically depicting exactly why I tell
28 00:02:57 --> 00:03:01 brand new students don't trade this week. Now it doesn't mean that you if
29 00:03:01 --> 00:03:04 you have more experience, more understanding, and you have a model, and
30 00:03:04 --> 00:03:08 you're not going to go in there and try to trade aggressively with huge over
31 00:03:08 --> 00:03:11 leveraged positions. It doesn't mean that you can't take trades. It just
32 00:03:11 --> 00:03:15 means that, as a mentor, I'm trying to be responsible to remind those
33 00:03:15 --> 00:03:18 individuals that they'll have a lot of experience that might get wrapped up on
34 00:03:18 --> 00:03:23 something that they see in price action and then completely lose their their
35 00:03:23 --> 00:03:28 bearings and potentially hurt themselves financially. But with that said, we have
36 00:03:28 --> 00:03:31 sell side resting below here. I think that's going to be a factor for Non Farm
37 00:03:31 --> 00:03:35 Payroll tomorrow. We've already upset the buy side here, relative equal highs.
38 00:03:35 --> 00:03:40 You can see that we did, in fact, run up there, worked that level and then stayed
39 00:03:40 --> 00:03:45 in a nasty little consolidation and then dug down in, took the sell side here,
40 00:03:46 --> 00:03:53 and consolidated into close of the day. Here's a five minute chart of price
41 00:03:53 --> 00:03:59 action for today. As you can see, it's kind of it's gnarly. Basically comes up,
42 00:03:59 --> 00:04:03 hits the buy side, mentioned on the 15 minute time frame, and then spends a
43 00:04:03 --> 00:04:09 long time just banging around. And this is exactly what I tell students to
44 00:04:09 --> 00:04:15 avoid. It's actually very easy to simply avoid this. No one told you that you had
45 00:04:15 --> 00:04:18 to trade today, but someone did tell you that you should avoid trading, and
46 00:04:18 --> 00:04:23 that's me, but I know you don't like to listen to your daddy. So we're gonna
47 00:04:23 --> 00:04:28 take a look at what this price has done here on a one minute chart. First we're
48 00:04:28 --> 00:04:31 gonna look at through the lens of regular trading hours. And lower right
49 00:04:31 --> 00:04:36 hand corner, you'll see that RTH. That means we're gonna see the price delivery
50 00:04:36 --> 00:04:44 between 9:30am Eastern Time until 4:14pm Eastern time. So the previous day here
51 00:04:44 --> 00:04:50 on Wednesday, that's the settlement at 414 Eastern Time, and then where we
52 00:04:50 --> 00:04:54 opened up at 930 today. So that's your opening range gap, defined by that
53 00:04:54 --> 00:04:58 separation between the two price points in this rectangle here is essentially
54 00:04:58 --> 00:05:06 the opening range gap. And the opening range, so the time and the gap, so the
55 00:05:06 --> 00:05:12 market has a mid gap level here. So we opened traded right back up to it. So 7%
56 00:05:12 --> 00:05:16 of the time the gap will get filled to halfway. Again, you're still seeing that
57 00:05:16 --> 00:05:21 number going I saw a guy posting on Twitter that someone did a study on it,
58 00:05:22 --> 00:05:26 and it doesn't live up to 70% you can check your math, because I went back 40
59 00:05:26 --> 00:05:32 years, okay? And I got data going back for decades, and also I've been living
60 00:05:32 --> 00:05:38 it. So your data's off. The idea of it reaching back to 70 70% of time, going
61 00:05:38 --> 00:05:42 to halfway of the gap, is a nice little scalping opportunity. But if we open up
62 00:05:42 --> 00:05:46 down here, it just means for the opening range, that means the first 30 minutes
63 00:05:46 --> 00:05:51 bias is bullish, so it goes up to it here, pulls back down in fair value gap
64 00:05:51 --> 00:05:57 here, rallies back higher, find some support at mid. Gap rallies up to
65 00:05:57 --> 00:06:02 previous day's settlement. Another fair value gap rallies up and clears the buy
66 00:06:02 --> 00:06:06 side spends a little bit of time in here. It's exactly what you want to see,
67 00:06:06 --> 00:06:10 because this is accumulation of buy stops. Smart Money is accumulating those
68 00:06:10 --> 00:06:15 for the Express purposes to trade it short, the market breaks lower, comes
69 00:06:15 --> 00:06:19 back in to this sell side, imbalanced buy side and efficiency. So this candle
70 00:06:19 --> 00:06:23 sticks low. That's what you see this dashed line with. And this candle sticks
71 00:06:23 --> 00:06:26 high. That's this dashed line. And then the midpoint of that is consequent
72 00:06:26 --> 00:06:31 encroachment. That's this line here. So we had a really nasty back and forth
73 00:06:32 --> 00:06:36 price consolidation in here, and then rallies back above and trades into
74 00:06:36 --> 00:06:39 consequent encroachment of that sell sign and bounce buy side efficiency on
75 00:06:40 --> 00:06:43 the one minute chart. Now let's take a look at it through the lens of a
76 00:06:44 --> 00:06:48 electronic trading hours chart. On one minute time frame, you can see that sell
77 00:06:48 --> 00:06:51 side and balance, buy side and efficiency, after the market has traded
78 00:06:51 --> 00:06:56 up to the buy side, breaks lower, comes right back in and then later in the day,
79 00:06:56 --> 00:07:01 after all this chopping around here, it goes back into the lower half of this
80 00:07:01 --> 00:07:07 city. It does not get in the upper half. So that tells you that this is most
81 00:07:07 --> 00:07:11 likely going to be when we go lower. We have a nice pool of liquidity down here,
82 00:07:11 --> 00:07:15 and we have the middle of that weekly buy side of balance cell sign in
83 00:07:15 --> 00:07:18 efficiency. That's what this line is here. So since we were unable to treat
84 00:07:18 --> 00:07:21 an upper half of that sell side of balance by side and efficiency, it's
85 00:07:21 --> 00:07:25 more likely it's going to break lower. So after displacement lower, we have a
86 00:07:25 --> 00:07:32 gap in here that initially I thought was going to be traded back up into, but I
87 00:07:32 --> 00:07:36 later corrected myself and saw that this was essentially a breakaway gap, and in
88 00:07:36 --> 00:07:40 this little consolidation, trading back up into all the wicks, if you do all the
89 00:07:40 --> 00:07:44 50% measurements of that for consequent encroachment, it's reaching up into
90 00:07:44 --> 00:07:50 those and then we break lower, attacking the cell side here, here, and also link
91 00:07:50 --> 00:07:55 down here, and then delivering to the consequent encroachment of the weekly
92 00:07:55 --> 00:07:59 biosignal balance, cell sign efficiency, which is this blue rectangle area, which
93 00:07:59 --> 00:08:04 is what I taught you on Monday's live streamed, top down analysis on the
94 00:08:04 --> 00:08:07 weekly chart. After hitting that, it makes the low of the day, and the mark
95 00:08:07 --> 00:08:11 goes off that and then consolidates into the afternoon. I want to take a closer
96 00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 look in here, because I want to show you that I did, in fact, execute in that
97 00:08:16 --> 00:08:20 here is this consolidation trading up into all the candlesticks wicks in here,
98 00:08:21 --> 00:08:24 but in here on the one minute chart, you can't see what I'm about to show you,
99 00:08:24 --> 00:08:28 but there's a inversion fair value gap over here on the 15 second chart, you
100 00:08:28 --> 00:08:32 can see this candlestick right there, that buy side of balance, outside
101 00:08:32 --> 00:08:36 efficiency. Once we traded outside of it, it came back up into it, and I went
102 00:08:36 --> 00:08:42 short. Six contracts there at 20,010 and three quarters traded lower. One more
103 00:08:42 --> 00:08:48 spike up in here before taking out this. Candlesticks low, and I'll add four more
104 00:08:48 --> 00:08:56 there. And we broke lower. I took partials at 19,009 64, and a half traded
105 00:08:56 --> 00:09:01 into institutional order, flow entry drill there, broke lower, dug down into
106 00:09:01 --> 00:09:09 another partial at 19,009 25 even came back up into a fair value gap here. Sold
107 00:09:09 --> 00:09:16 off down in and I took one contract off at 19,008 82 and a quarter, about three
108 00:09:16 --> 00:09:20 handles or so away from the low of the day, and it's below the weekly bison
109 00:09:20 --> 00:09:25 valve, cell sign efficiency, consequent encroachment the mid gaps, inefficiency,
110 00:09:25 --> 00:09:29 that blue shaded area. Then it had two contracts running as a as a potential,
111 00:09:29 --> 00:09:33 in case they want to break down further. But it ultimately came back and hit the
112 00:09:33 --> 00:09:39 stop loss on the balance of the two contracts at 19,009 41 and a half. So
113 00:09:40 --> 00:09:45 the difference is experience. The difference is, is understanding it's not
114 00:09:45 --> 00:09:48 likely that you're going to have the experience to trade this and expect
115 00:09:48 --> 00:09:52 these types of price runs during the week of Non Farm Payroll, but over time
116 00:09:52 --> 00:09:58 you will. But it's not it's not responsible for me as a mentor to try to
117 00:09:58 --> 00:10:02 teach you to chase these. Types of moves when it's a lot more difficult to trade
118 00:10:02 --> 00:10:06 in these environments. Now, can I do it? Yes, but it doesn't mean that you should
119 00:10:06 --> 00:10:06 try to
120 00:10:08 --> 00:10:13 pretend to be the equivalent of what 30 years of experience yields. To me, your
121 00:10:13 --> 00:10:18 best interest is to sit still and study these days and appreciate the level of
122 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 difficulty it brings with it, because if you can't recognize that early on,
123 00:10:22 --> 00:10:27 you're going to have these high expectations, unrealistic expectations,
124 00:10:27 --> 00:10:30 that you're going to be able to navigate well in these environments without
125 00:10:30 --> 00:10:33 someone guiding you. It's ill advised you