1 | 00:04:00 --> 00:04:15 | ICT: Well, good morning, folks, good morning. Good morning. If you are one of |
2 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:23 | the few that follow me on X, you could just give me a heads up, let me know you |
3 | 00:04:23 --> 00:04:32 | can hear me. Audio check. Is the audio good? Is the audio loud? |
4 | 00:04:42 --> 00:04:43 | I'm not hearing myself, so |
5 | 00:04:53 --> 00:04:59 | already I'm getting confirmation that you all can hear so that's good. So I |
6 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:03 | appreciate your. Have your patience. I wanted to have that risk disclaimer show |
7 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:09 | for a little bit longer than I normally do, so, and I apologize for being |
8 | 00:05:09 --> 00:05:15 | somewhat tardy. But you know us, us. You know we have to stick to the Union |
9 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:19 | guidelines and rules, and we have to be you have to be late every now and then. |
10 | 00:05:20 --> 00:05:28 | We like to sell it as fashionable to be to be late, just union rules, folks. So |
11 | 00:05:30 --> 00:05:34 | obviously we are going to be watching the carnage that is Non Farm Payroll |
12 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:41 | here in a about 20 minutes or so. And I want to remind you that I never know |
13 | 00:05:41 --> 00:05:48 | where it's going to go. Not far. Payroll is a carnival ride, and it can be very |
14 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:54 | damaging. If you go out here and try to speculate ahead of it. Treat it like a |
15 | 00:05:54 --> 00:05:58 | FOMC. You don't know where it's going. Treat like CPI. You don't know where |
16 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:03 | it's going. Like a PPI number. You have no idea where it's going. So it's always |
17 | 00:06:03 --> 00:06:09 | better to simply wait, wait for it to do whatever it's going to do, wait about 15 |
18 | 00:06:09 --> 00:06:13 | minutes and then see what the lay of the land looks like after that. Meaning, |
19 | 00:06:14 --> 00:06:20 | what inefficiencies are still in play, what smooth areas above or below the |
20 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:26 | marketplace 15 minutes minimum after nonprofit apparel hits. So that means |
21 | 00:06:26 --> 00:06:32 | 845, Eastern Standard Time, New York local time. That's when you have the |
22 | 00:06:32 --> 00:06:38 | green light to start going in and seeking opportunities to study. If |
23 | 00:06:38 --> 00:06:44 | you're brand new, if you're a brand new student, you're brand new trader in the |
24 | 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 | making, if you will, whether you if you have studied with anyone else, if you're |
25 | 00:06:50 --> 00:06:55 | coming to me, I'm calling you a brand new okay, because chances are you |
26 | 00:06:55 --> 00:06:58 | probably learned a lot of stuff that has absolutely no bearing on why price is |
27 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:02 | going to move. So it's no question as to why you're losing money if you're |
28 | 00:07:02 --> 00:07:06 | trading on these days, because you're trying to do something that is ill |
29 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:11 | equipped to handle the uncertainty that even my concepts will not deliver the |
30 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:16 | clarity that's required to be positioned ahead of it. So that's the reason why I |
31 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:25 | tell my students, if you're brand new, don't trade after Wednesday morning, New |
32 | 00:07:25 --> 00:07:30 | York local time on Non Farm Payroll weeks. And you can see Wednesday was a |
33 | 00:07:30 --> 00:07:33 | little bit of a challenging day. Thursday was a little bit of a |
34 | 00:07:33 --> 00:07:36 | challenging day. If you're new, if you don't know what you're doing, they can |
35 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:41 | be very problematic. And then you're met with, obviously, the the king of |
36 | 00:07:41 --> 00:07:46 | volatility for this particular week, it's the Non Farm Payroll. It's usually |
37 | 00:07:46 --> 00:07:55 | the first Friday of every month, 8:30am and leading up that number, it can be a |
38 | 00:07:55 --> 00:08:00 | little unruly in price, meaning that it can, it can start to consolidate and |
39 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:04 | then create these little sharp, little jabs above or below, and go right back |
40 | 00:08:04 --> 00:08:08 | into consolidation again. And you can see, pretty much that's what we've seen |
41 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:15 | here. Now there has been, for completeness sake, in my career, and |
42 | 00:08:15 --> 00:08:23 | since I was doing mentorship with the forex pairs, there has been nonparallel |
43 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:31 | weeks where during the Wednesday and Thursday, very favorable price action |
44 | 00:08:31 --> 00:08:38 | was available. Put it that way, but that's usually far and few between. So |
45 | 00:08:38 --> 00:08:42 | it's not the standard. So it was, it was very difficult for me to try to teach |
46 | 00:08:42 --> 00:08:49 | this concept to new forex traders, because they're constantly looking to |
47 | 00:08:49 --> 00:08:52 | get into a trade. They're constantly trying to chase the influencers, trying |
48 | 00:08:52 --> 00:08:56 | to get enough money or get enough understandings. They can talk good game |
49 | 00:08:57 --> 00:09:02 | and do mentorships and courses and whatnot, because that's the fast money. |
50 | 00:09:02 --> 00:09:06 | That's the easy money, getting someone else to send you money for education. |
51 | 00:09:06 --> 00:09:10 | And you can talk in Market Replay. There's a lot of suckers that fall into |
52 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:14 | that. But you have to know what you're doing. You have to know exactly how |
53 | 00:09:14 --> 00:09:17 | you're going to navigate these markets. Because if you're put into the litmus |
54 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:21 | test of having to do it live, explaining why the market should behave a certain |
55 | 00:09:21 --> 00:09:26 | way and why it should not behave a certain way given times. That's prowess, |
56 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:32 | that's understanding, excuse me, the lack of that in this industry is |
57 | 00:09:33 --> 00:09:38 | obvious. You can really see it, but there's a lot of lipstick added to hide |
58 | 00:09:38 --> 00:09:44 | those types of things, because of pomp because of things purchased outside of |
59 | 00:09:44 --> 00:09:48 | trading profits and showcasing those things. So I just want to remind the |
60 | 00:09:48 --> 00:09:52 | young man, because that's usually who this is I'm talking to, you're not |
61 | 00:09:52 --> 00:09:57 | trying to become an influencer. You gotta first learn how to be a good |
62 | 00:09:57 --> 00:10:01 | trader, because endless amounts of money income. Opportunities will be afforded |
63 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:07 | to you if you learn how to do this well, you can open up a path. I have no idea |
64 | 00:10:07 --> 00:10:12 | what's available to you right now. You're blinded by confusion and |
65 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:17 | uncertainty, not knowing what to do. Just in your journal, do me and yourself |
66 | 00:10:17 --> 00:10:21 | a favor. Write in your journal that you have permission, you have ICTs |
67 | 00:10:21 --> 00:10:28 | permission, and give yourself permission to never trade this day. Never trade it |
68 | 00:10:29 --> 00:10:35 | now, months from now, after you've developed yourself into a well rounded |
69 | 00:10:35 --> 00:10:38 | trader, you have a model that you haven't deviated from. You haven't |
70 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:43 | tinkered with it, you haven't tried to change things when you're getting |
71 | 00:10:43 --> 00:10:47 | consistent returns using that and you don't feel swayed by your emotions. |
72 | 00:10:48 --> 00:10:56 | Then, then you can go into Non Farm Payroll after the release at 830 week 15 |
73 | 00:10:56 --> 00:11:01 | minutes minimum, and then the rest of the day you can trade it normally, but |
74 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:04 | it's important for you to prove that you have the the willpower to stay away from |
75 | 00:11:04 --> 00:11:09 | this carnival ride. Because every new trader, whether they're Forex, |
76 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:15 | commodities or futures, they all want to try to trade this day. And I did too. I |
77 | 00:11:15 --> 00:11:19 | wanted to, like, I saw a lot of movement. I was like, Wow, if I could |
78 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:23 | get that kind of movement real quick and sudden that would overcome my fear and |
79 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:27 | anxiety about staying in a trade, because it was something I wouldn't |
80 | 00:11:27 --> 00:11:31 | willing to submit to. Putting on a trade and having to wait for it to get to your |
81 | 00:11:31 --> 00:11:35 | target is is agony. When you're a new student, when you're a new trader, you |
82 | 00:11:35 --> 00:11:38 | want them to be just like my videos, where I speed them up and it feels like, |
83 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:44 | wow, I got 185 handles in two and a half minutes. That's the trades I want. But |
84 | 00:11:44 --> 00:11:48 | it's not accurate. It's not a true depiction of what you're gonna have to |
85 | 00:11:48 --> 00:11:52 | submit to. But watching the Non Farm Payroll, as you'll see in a couple |
86 | 00:11:52 --> 00:11:56 | minutes, it tricks you when you're brand new. It tricks you thinking that, wow, |
87 | 00:11:56 --> 00:12:00 | there's a way to get in there before that. No, there isn't. There really |
88 | 00:12:00 --> 00:12:04 | isn't, folks, and I want you to know that. I want you to understand that |
89 | 00:12:04 --> 00:12:09 | there is no consistent way for you to be positioned ahead of Non Farm Payroll |
90 | 00:12:09 --> 00:12:15 | with any measure of consistency that will afford you profitability. I mean |
91 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:19 | that sincerely. I'm not hiding some secret technique, concept, PD, array, I |
92 | 00:12:19 --> 00:12:26 | don't know. Okay, I genuinely In Jesus name I do not know how to call Non Farm |
93 | 00:12:26 --> 00:12:32 | Payroll before it happens. I don't so I have to sit here, and I have to wait, |
94 | 00:12:32 --> 00:12:36 | just like anybody else would, and see, what do they do to damage on? What do |
95 | 00:12:36 --> 00:12:42 | they what do they crush in terms of buy side and sell side. What inefficiencies |
96 | 00:12:42 --> 00:12:48 | do they trade to, and which ones do they leave? So I got a question about, you |
97 | 00:12:48 --> 00:12:54 | know what? What constitutes a minor buy side and sell side, and what is the |
98 | 00:12:54 --> 00:13:00 | primary buy side and sell side? So every single time I sit in front of Non Farm |
99 | 00:13:00 --> 00:13:03 | Payroll, and I don't do it all the time, or sometimes, because I don't trade |
100 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:09 | them, really the the times where I'm not interested in looking at it, I'm doing |
101 | 00:13:09 --> 00:13:15 | something else. But if I am able to, I always try to study Non Farm Payroll. I |
102 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:19 | usually watch it with my private students, and I'll cover like about what |
103 | 00:13:19 --> 00:13:23 | I'm going to show you here, where the actual primary minor liquidity pools |
104 | 00:13:23 --> 00:13:27 | are, and then we watch and see which one hits, and then we look for the opposing |
105 | 00:13:27 --> 00:13:31 | side to get traded to. So in your mind, that's what I'll that's all I want you |
106 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:35 | to do today, and every Non Farm Payroll going forward. And I'm going to tell you |
107 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:42 | why this will fail as a studying mechanism as well. But initially I want |
108 | 00:13:42 --> 00:13:46 | you to look at the chart. Start with a 15 minute time frame. It's very, very |
109 | 00:13:46 --> 00:13:55 | simple rules. Okay, what you're going to do is about 815 quarter after eight, |
110 | 00:13:55 --> 00:13:58 | where you have 15 minutes or so, we have plenty of time, so I can still jawbone |
111 | 00:13:58 --> 00:14:05 | and cover what I'm going to say, but 815 you want to see where market price is at |
112 | 00:14:05 --> 00:14:09 | that time. So we give ourselves 15 minutes before the actual news release. |
113 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:14 | At 830 they released the employment data. I don't care what the number is. I |
114 | 00:14:14 --> 00:14:21 | never I never review. I have never reviewed with my students, the number of |
115 | 00:14:21 --> 00:14:26 | how many jobless claims there has been, and the change from the previous month, |
116 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:28 | I could care less about that number. |
117 | 00:14:29 --> 00:14:33 | The market doesn't care about that number. Okay, the market is a big |
118 | 00:14:33 --> 00:14:37 | casino, and they're they're throwing constant red herrings at you as a trader |
119 | 00:14:37 --> 00:14:42 | and as a speculator, as an investor, they're trying to cultivate and |
120 | 00:14:42 --> 00:14:48 | manipulate market sentiment with these things. That's why, fundamentally, |
121 | 00:14:48 --> 00:14:54 | speaking no pun intended, the the pursuit of using that data on a short |
122 | 00:14:54 --> 00:15:02 | term basis is flawed, just like trying to use. Long term interest rate trends |
123 | 00:15:02 --> 00:15:07 | for intraday trading is useless, because you could be in a carry trade market on |
124 | 00:15:07 --> 00:15:13 | a forex pair where one interest rate in a country is higher than the other, and |
125 | 00:15:13 --> 00:15:18 | being long with that currency as the base, that would be a good long term |
126 | 00:15:18 --> 00:15:22 | trade holding on to it, because not only you're going to be most likely |
127 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:25 | profitable in the direction, but you're also going to get interest bearing, |
128 | 00:15:26 --> 00:15:33 | because you're having your money tied up in that larger interest rate currency in |
129 | 00:15:33 --> 00:15:37 | that respect, obviously, you know it makes sense to hold on to a pair like |
130 | 00:15:37 --> 00:15:41 | that, because it's going to yield better over time. But that doesn't mean that I |
131 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:46 | wouldn't sell short, that that forex pair, if I was trading it. So these |
132 | 00:15:46 --> 00:15:50 | fundamental long term perspectives, these macro perspectives, macro in a |
133 | 00:15:50 --> 00:15:57 | sense, it's higher Time Frame and broad in scope, the the necessity for all that |
134 | 00:15:57 --> 00:16:04 | stuff while, while trading, is next to nothing for me, but it's wonderful |
135 | 00:16:06 --> 00:16:10 | instigation for other people that are less informed to make decisions where |
136 | 00:16:10 --> 00:16:15 | they put their money in our reach and we can take it. So just know that I am not |
137 | 00:16:15 --> 00:16:18 | looking at fundamental data. I never look at the raw data. I don't look at |
138 | 00:16:18 --> 00:16:23 | ppi number, CPI number. I don't give a shit what the FOMC rate announcement is. |
139 | 00:16:23 --> 00:16:28 | I never care to look at it. I don't ever care to look at it. And everything that |
140 | 00:16:28 --> 00:16:33 | you need to know is inside these little candlesticks. That's the everything that |
141 | 00:16:33 --> 00:16:37 | you need to know is right there. Because what this is actually giving you is a |
142 | 00:16:37 --> 00:16:44 | real seismic graph of the market sentiment of less informed traders. |
143 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:49 | That's what I see in price. I see stupid people doing stupid things with their |
144 | 00:16:49 --> 00:16:53 | money, and I'm waiting for the opportunity where I see something where |
145 | 00:16:53 --> 00:16:57 | they're arm wrestling me, and if they're arm wrestling me, and they're willing to |
146 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:01 | put their money on the line, I'm going to take that money. I'm going to sleep |
147 | 00:17:01 --> 00:17:04 | well at night. I'm not going to care that they lost the money. I have no |
148 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:08 | problem. I have no Christian qualms about it, because they signed the same |
149 | 00:17:08 --> 00:17:13 | risk disclaimers that I signed when I open up my accounts, so they are aware. |
150 | 00:17:13 --> 00:17:16 | They know that there's a potential they're going to lose money if they're |
151 | 00:17:16 --> 00:17:20 | foolish enough to think that they're going to be smart enough to get ahead of |
152 | 00:17:20 --> 00:17:24 | the marketplace in non front payroll. Know exactly where it's going to go, and |
153 | 00:17:24 --> 00:17:31 | you can't enter a trade. You can't put a trade on rate as the 830 news driver and |
154 | 00:17:32 --> 00:17:38 | enters the marketplace. Try to put a trade in. You won't get filled, or |
155 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:44 | eventually you'll get filled at the most inopportune time with enormous slippage. |
156 | 00:17:44 --> 00:17:48 | That means where you're trying to get in it and where you actually get filled is |
157 | 00:17:48 --> 00:17:55 | way out of spec. So don't do it. Okay, just don't do it. So now let's go |
158 | 00:17:55 --> 00:17:59 | through the liquidity pools. So we're here. We're essentially right here at |
159 | 00:17:59 --> 00:18:05 | 815 so we look back, we cleared this high. So that's not a liquidity pool |
160 | 00:18:05 --> 00:18:09 | that high right there. It's a wick, but still high. So we drop our level right |
161 | 00:18:09 --> 00:18:10 | there. |
162 | 00:18:15 --> 00:18:21 | And this is a close proximity buy side liquidity pool, meaning this is going to |
163 | 00:18:21 --> 00:18:26 | be your minor. So you have to look for something above that one real simple top |
164 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:36 | left, and we'll go to minor. All right. You ready? Was that hard? It complicates |
165 | 00:18:36 --> 00:18:43 | everything, alright? So going back from this area here at 815 or so, go to your |
166 | 00:18:43 --> 00:18:48 | nearest low. That's not a low. I would consider that this right here, this is a |
167 | 00:18:48 --> 00:18:55 | minor sell side liquidity pool. So you can do this. All you're doing is looking |
168 | 00:18:55 --> 00:19:02 | for the closest one at a specific time, right before a news event. I'm |
169 | 00:19:19 --> 00:19:27 | so easy, even a child can do it. Speaking of children, I believe my son, |
170 | 00:19:27 --> 00:19:33 | Caleb, has passed his top step combine. So we'll be waiting for confirmation on |
171 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:41 | that. Proud of you, son, proud of you, but now you're at the hearty this was, |
172 | 00:19:41 --> 00:19:47 | this was, this is the easy part. Getting there is easy. Staying there and getting |
173 | 00:19:47 --> 00:19:50 | paid out. That's the challenge, because you're going to wrestle with the |
174 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:56 | emotions, alright? So they have minor sell side liquidity and minor buy side. |
175 | 00:19:57 --> 00:20:06 | Now you have to take a little bit broader. Look above that. Okay, so we |
176 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:10 | have this now. Look at, look at we have here. We have all this consolidation and |
177 | 00:20:10 --> 00:20:16 | all these little lows down here on a news report day, like Non Farm Payroll, |
178 | 00:20:16 --> 00:20:23 | they're going to go way outside, way outside what you think is reasonable. |
179 | 00:20:24 --> 00:20:28 | That's the problem with Non Farm Payroll. It's so uncertain. And they can |
180 | 00:20:28 --> 00:20:34 | go way out of spec in terms of average daily range. They can go outside of what |
181 | 00:20:34 --> 00:20:38 | you think it could go to, Oh, it can't. I don't think it's going to go there, |
182 | 00:20:38 --> 00:20:42 | and that's exactly where it goes. So chances are when you look at the chart |
183 | 00:20:42 --> 00:20:47 | and you think to yourself, I don't, I can't imagine it going there. Ask |
184 | 00:20:47 --> 00:20:50 | somebody that doesn't know how to trade look at the chart, okay, and say, |
185 | 00:20:50 --> 00:20:54 | Listen, if something really big happened and the market started to move around, |
186 | 00:20:54 --> 00:20:59 | up or down, really, really fast, where do you think it would go? Like, pick up, |
187 | 00:20:59 --> 00:21:05 | pick a spot on there. Uncanny. Uncanny how that works. But when we come into |
188 | 00:21:05 --> 00:21:10 | it, we're looking for all these patterns, these things and whatnot. We |
189 | 00:21:10 --> 00:21:14 | dilute that purity of looking through the lens of someone that doesn't know |
190 | 00:21:14 --> 00:21:21 | what's going on. So I would not look at these consolidation lows as anything of |
191 | 00:21:21 --> 00:21:25 | importance, this is the minor cell side liquidity pool. But cut through all this |
192 | 00:21:25 --> 00:21:30 | consolidation, go right to these relative equal lows. So this right here |
193 | 00:21:30 --> 00:21:39 | is going to be primary cell side. Primary is just the next logical level |
194 | 00:21:39 --> 00:21:43 | of liquidity below your near close proximity, minor cell side liquidity, |
195 | 00:21:43 --> 00:21:48 | which is this low, and this is the minor by side liquidity, because it's close |
196 | 00:21:48 --> 00:21:51 | proximity to where we're at right now, there's no other high because we've |
197 | 00:21:52 --> 00:21:55 | already cleared this one, and we already cleared this individual candlestick |
198 | 00:21:55 --> 00:21:58 | there. So that means this is a minor positive liquidity pool. Now, is that |
199 | 00:21:58 --> 00:22:07 | complicated? No, it's really simple. So bottom left, and that's the business |
200 | 00:22:07 --> 00:22:16 | there. Now, here is the primary buy side. You think it's going to go just to |
201 | 00:22:16 --> 00:22:20 | fill in this, I'm going to submit to you that if it's going to go up here, it's |
202 | 00:22:20 --> 00:22:25 | going to run right on through to clear this. Why? Because somebody's up here |
203 | 00:22:25 --> 00:22:32 | short and they think that they're safe, because this is retail resistance. So |
204 | 00:22:32 --> 00:22:33 | this |
205 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:46 | Okay, I promise. I've been on trading view before. I love how I always like to |
206 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:52 | make it look like what I'm doing with this app or platform. I should say, All |
207 | 00:22:52 --> 00:23:03 | right, so that is the primary, primary buy side liquidity. Okay, so now the |
208 | 00:23:03 --> 00:23:09 | next question is this from a narrative stance, and I am generally wrong when it |
209 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:18 | comes to Non Farm Payroll, so I want to remind you of this. Okay, we have an |
210 | 00:23:18 --> 00:23:23 | obvious drop that was precipitous here, going down into a weekly target. What |
211 | 00:23:23 --> 00:23:26 | you're looking for inside that buy side of balance, cell sign, efficiency, that |
212 | 00:23:26 --> 00:23:31 | blue rectangle. Go watch the first 18 minutes of Monday's live stream. If you |
213 | 00:23:31 --> 00:23:35 | do that, you'll see where that blue box came from, why it was important, why I |
214 | 00:23:35 --> 00:23:40 | believed it was going to go down there as a weekly target as it hit it. We |
215 | 00:23:40 --> 00:23:44 | haven't done much at all, have we? That's pretty interesting, isn't it? So |
216 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:48 | contrast that with how I told you to avoid Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of |
217 | 00:23:48 --> 00:23:51 | this week trading. I told you where the market was going to go, told you why it |
218 | 00:23:51 --> 00:23:54 | was going to go down there, and it went there, and then it behaved like it did |
219 | 00:23:54 --> 00:23:59 | here. And even in this sloppy stuff you saw, I can trade. I can trade in this |
220 | 00:23:59 --> 00:24:04 | mess, you're probably not going to do well doing it so because we have |
221 | 00:24:04 --> 00:24:08 | somebody that's already made money and they're sitting in profit right now, Non |
222 | 00:24:08 --> 00:24:17 | Farm Payroll is a pain, pain mechanism. It's used many times to destabilize, to |
223 | 00:24:18 --> 00:24:22 | mess up current sentiment and or unseat individuals and then go the other |
224 | 00:24:22 --> 00:24:29 | direction. So what could happen today is we could see it do some wild run up |
225 | 00:24:29 --> 00:24:35 | here, knock these individuals out, and then into next week, go lower and not |
226 | 00:24:35 --> 00:24:38 | even take out these lows. That's something that can happen. Or it could |
227 | 00:24:38 --> 00:24:43 | go down, because this is closer to get to this cell side trip people short, and |
228 | 00:24:43 --> 00:24:47 | then rake it all the way across the coals, and then pump it all day long up |
229 | 00:24:47 --> 00:24:51 | to get to here, and then go into the weekend where everybody thinks it's |
230 | 00:24:51 --> 00:24:58 | bullish, and then we start going lower next week. Or it could just do a little |
231 | 00:24:58 --> 00:25:02 | fizzy moving around in here. Here and leave both pools of liquidity, and I'm |
232 | 00:25:02 --> 00:25:07 | wrong, and you're wrong, and everybody else is wrong, and these get beat up. So |
233 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:12 | a lot of scenarios here. So how can one say this is the one I'm going to side |
234 | 00:25:12 --> 00:25:17 | with? I don't I don't have that visibility. I don't have that but we |
235 | 00:25:17 --> 00:25:22 | were all going to watch it now. Okay, so these levels are here, and we're going |
236 | 00:25:22 --> 00:25:28 | to watch it on a five minute chart, because it's a little bit more fun. One |
237 | 00:25:28 --> 00:25:32 | minutes is too it's too much to see on a one minute chart. |
238 | 00:25:39 --> 00:25:40 | And here we go. |
239 | 00:25:46 --> 00:25:54 | Already moved the hunter handles and hasn't even been 20 seconds. So the |
240 | 00:25:54 --> 00:26:00 | miner buy side's been tagged. Be real easy for it to drop down to get the |
241 | 00:26:00 --> 00:26:01 | minor sell side still too. It's |
242 | 00:26:14 --> 00:26:19 | a little lackluster here. I was expecting a little bit more punch having |
243 | 00:26:19 --> 00:26:21 | the Non Farm Payroll before the election this year. |
244 | 00:26:31 --> 00:26:33 | Okay, since it's slow, we will go down to a one minute chart. |
245 | 00:26:42 --> 00:26:54 | I So on this first candle at 830 the low came in at 20,064 and the high came in |
246 | 00:26:55 --> 00:27:03 | at 20,001 62 okay, so 9898 handles in one minute. Can you can you weather that |
247 | 00:27:03 --> 00:27:08 | if you're wrong? Can you weather that with your 15 contracts and your over |
248 | 00:27:08 --> 00:27:11 | leveraged funded account challenge or your funded account? Can you do that? |
249 | 00:27:11 --> 00:27:18 | Because I'm going to remind you, with common sense, you can't. Okay, so the |
250 | 00:27:18 --> 00:27:23 | first pool of liquidity they've taken is the minor buy side. So we're going to |
251 | 00:27:23 --> 00:27:29 | see, do we have any interest that go below and get that minor sell side? It's |
252 | 00:27:29 --> 00:27:29 | not |
253 | 00:27:40 --> 00:27:44 | important to look at the individual candle sticks. So don't, don't complain, |
254 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:47 | like, come on, you're you're two down. I want to see fair value gaps. That |
255 | 00:27:47 --> 00:27:52 | doesn't happen here. You're looking for the liquidity for the first 15 minutes. |
256 | 00:27:52 --> 00:27:57 | You want to see what stops they run for above and below the marketplace. So this |
257 | 00:27:57 --> 00:28:01 | is accomplishing the method. You have your own chart you can look at you look |
258 | 00:28:01 --> 00:28:06 | at, I just want you to submit to the idea of watching where it wants to reach |
259 | 00:28:06 --> 00:28:07 | for for stops. Do you feel |
260 | 00:28:21 --> 00:28:27 | like you missed anything so far? Oh, I wish I would have. Do you feel any of |
261 | 00:28:27 --> 00:28:30 | that inside right now, like I wish I would have done this. I wish I would |
262 | 00:28:30 --> 00:28:34 | have done that. Or if you had a position and you carried it into this, did you |
263 | 00:28:34 --> 00:28:42 | get stopped out? Are you making money right now, if you carried a position in, |
264 | 00:28:42 --> 00:28:44 | are you willing to hold on to that trade still? |
265 | 00:28:53 --> 00:28:57 | I would like to see it dive down and get that mindset from where it's at right |
266 | 00:28:57 --> 00:29:11 | now, because they've already engaged buy side. So since it's kind of slow for a |
267 | 00:29:11 --> 00:29:21 | typical, typical Non Farm Payroll, what I'm looking at is this. I'm viewing it |
268 | 00:29:21 --> 00:29:22 | from this perspective. |
269 | 00:29:30 --> 00:29:38 | The buy side minor has been hit first. There's minor sell side down here, |
270 | 00:29:40 --> 00:29:45 | because it's a Non Farm Payroll event. You may look at these lows here and |
271 | 00:29:45 --> 00:29:49 | think, Well, that's that's where my eyes would go, not mine, because this low is |
272 | 00:29:49 --> 00:29:55 | already lower than that one, and this lows lower than that one. So I'm using |
273 | 00:29:55 --> 00:30:02 | this low and that low. So. That's what makes my liquidity pool the first minor |
274 | 00:30:02 --> 00:30:06 | sell side. But I see this as |
275 | 00:30:12 --> 00:30:19 | the minor buy stops have been acquired here, and if this is the first side they |
276 | 00:30:19 --> 00:30:28 | go to at 830 someone could be interested in accumulating positions in here, and |
277 | 00:30:28 --> 00:30:35 | if they're running for buy stops with the idea that at a later time today, |
278 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:40 | that it could be potentially lower, where would they want to off load those |
279 | 00:30:41 --> 00:30:49 | below this low here, or we're going up here. We're consolidating, accumulating |
280 | 00:30:50 --> 00:30:57 | to run, to take the primary buy stops. I have nothing to frame that run on. I |
281 | 00:30:57 --> 00:31:01 | wouldn't want to take that trade, even though it looks wonderful in terms of |
282 | 00:31:01 --> 00:31:06 | the payout. If you were to hold on to it, I would not do that. And it's still |
283 | 00:31:06 --> 00:31:08 | 835 so we have nine minutes still. |
284 | 00:31:21 --> 00:31:24 | Now looking at it normally, this is what the chart would look like when you're |
285 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:25 | watching it with me. |
286 | 00:31:30 --> 00:31:31 | What have you |
287 | 00:31:39 --> 00:31:48 | what have you seen here? A fair value gap trades down until one minute before |
288 | 00:31:49 --> 00:31:54 | we rally to take the minor buy side. Okay, watch the wick. I |
289 | 00:32:17 --> 00:32:21 | if it clears this high it would need to run aggressively and not spend any more |
290 | 00:32:21 --> 00:32:26 | time coming back inside this shade of area. If it's underlying bullish and it |
291 | 00:32:26 --> 00:32:31 | wants to run, otherwise, if it goes up and fails and goes back down and trades |
292 | 00:32:31 --> 00:32:37 | below this, this comes, this becomes rather a potential inversion fair Vega, |
293 | 00:32:37 --> 00:32:40 | because normally where it's at now, because it's a buy sign down, sell sign, |
294 | 00:32:40 --> 00:32:44 | efficiency and the market prices here, that means it would be normally expected |
295 | 00:32:44 --> 00:32:50 | to see it come down as a discount. And if it's bullish, this should offer a |
296 | 00:32:50 --> 00:32:56 | reason for the algo to offer that price and then reprice higher. But if it goes |
297 | 00:32:56 --> 00:33:01 | down through that and comes back up, that would be inversion. Then we can use |
298 | 00:33:01 --> 00:33:07 | that to do a case study for the cell side down here. All right, so we're at |
299 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:11 | right now. It needs to continue. It should not ever come back down in here. |
300 | 00:33:11 --> 00:33:11 | I'm |
301 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:27 | did you give yourself permission not to trade? I'll just remind you. |
302 | 00:33:34 --> 00:33:46 | So far, this is actually a very timid and tame NFP day. I i Actually puzzled |
303 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:52 | as of why they're holding you back here. I was expecting a whole lot more |
304 | 00:33:52 --> 00:34:00 | fireworks seeing that this is the last one before we get to our election. I up. |
305 | 00:34:17 --> 00:34:21 | I don't think I'm saying that correctly. We I gotta check my acting on the |
306 | 00:34:21 --> 00:34:26 | calendar. November 1 is Friday, so that that could, they could be using that for |
307 | 00:34:26 --> 00:34:31 | NFP. I may have been ahead of myself saying that, but I |
308 | 00:34:46 --> 00:34:56 | now think about how, in what 15 minutes, 15 minutes the opening bell in the stock |
309 | 00:34:56 --> 00:35:06 | market, if they are lifting price. Right at 830 all the way up to opening range, |
310 | 00:35:06 --> 00:35:10 | which is 930 to 10 o'clock in the morning. Reminder 10 o'clock, I'm |
311 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:13 | breaking the live session. I have something to take care of. I can escape |
312 | 00:35:13 --> 00:35:19 | it so the the public, if they keep sending this higher, and they don't go |
313 | 00:35:19 --> 00:35:29 | down to the miner sell side at all, and we open up at 930 right here. We're |
314 | 00:35:29 --> 00:35:40 | trading at 20,001 80 or so. We go to river trading hours. We're down here. So |
315 | 00:35:40 --> 00:35:49 | previous settlement is here, and we're up here, so that's a really large gap. |
316 | 00:35:51 --> 00:36:00 | What happens if it manages to climb all the way up there? We have an enormous |
317 | 00:36:00 --> 00:36:09 | gap. So is it possible going to climb that much? I don't think so. It would |
318 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:13 | have been a lot more energetic by now if it was trying to get there. It doesn't |
319 | 00:36:13 --> 00:36:18 | mean that it can't still try to press it there throughout the day session and |
320 | 00:36:18 --> 00:36:23 | today and just leave everything as it is, go into the weekend with a whole lot |
321 | 00:36:23 --> 00:36:28 | of lipstick on this pig. And people see that on the weekend, they'll read |
322 | 00:36:28 --> 00:36:31 | barons, they'll read all the investors, Business Daily, Wall Street Journal, |
323 | 00:36:31 --> 00:36:36 | whatnot, and all the talking heads will say, well, the market's really strong |
324 | 00:36:36 --> 00:36:40 | because the employment data was this, that and the other thing. And then next |
325 | 00:36:40 --> 00:36:46 | week, you know, we start seeing underlying weakness. I'm not trying to |
326 | 00:36:46 --> 00:36:55 | pick the top. I'm just saying that. I'm not, I'm not trying to pick the top, but |
327 | 00:36:55 --> 00:36:59 | I'm not so not trying to be a permeable either, because we're in that really |
328 | 00:36:59 --> 00:37:10 | weird, place, technically and seasonally, for the market to do |
329 | 00:37:10 --> 00:37:14 | something pretty crazy, and we have all these looming false flags that could pop |
330 | 00:37:14 --> 00:37:21 | off at any time. And I suspect next week we're probably gonna have one. So |
331 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:32 | there's some chicken little stuff over the the fair value gap in here. That's |
332 | 00:37:32 --> 00:37:34 | one that you want to have on your chart. Note that one I |
333 | 00:37:47 --> 00:37:53 | but this one here, right on the jump of Non Farm Payroll, because it was the |
334 | 00:37:53 --> 00:37:58 | candle that starts this big carnival ride. If it comes back below this, this |
335 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:04 | is the one I'd like to see definitely as a inversion Fairbank to run down to |
336 | 00:38:04 --> 00:38:09 | here, but nothing in here has given me any reason to be a buyer or seller yet. |
337 | 00:38:14 --> 00:38:19 | Now as a young man, I would look at this and say, wow, you know, I could have |
338 | 00:38:19 --> 00:38:27 | went long right before that happened, and I could be up almost 120 handles or |
339 | 00:38:27 --> 00:38:35 | so, and I would literally convince myself that I could find these setups |
340 | 00:38:35 --> 00:38:42 | beforehand. And every single time I tried, regret the times I was right, it |
341 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:49 | would stop me out, and then it would run where I wanted to go. So it's something |
342 | 00:38:49 --> 00:38:57 | that I mentioned many times, that an opportunity in the wrong conditions, an |
343 | 00:38:57 --> 00:39:03 | opportunity is a cleverly disguised impossibility, and that's what I want |
344 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:09 | you to subscribe to, in terms of expecting setups before Non Farm Payroll |
345 | 00:39:09 --> 00:39:17 | before 830 Non Farm Payroll Fridays. Hold no bias. Hold no expectation over |
346 | 00:39:17 --> 00:39:24 | price. Allow price to show you what it has after, and we have one more minute, |
347 | 00:39:24 --> 00:39:29 | 15 seconds, and then we can start looking for what's available for price. |
348 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:42 | This is the best orange juice I've ever had. Wow, you know, sometimes you get a |
349 | 00:39:42 --> 00:39:46 | glass of orange juice and it's like basically battery acid, and doesn't |
350 | 00:39:46 --> 00:39:51 | taste like anything but acid. The last batch of this we had was kind of like |
351 | 00:39:51 --> 00:39:58 | that, and this one here is very pleasant. Sometimes you get good |
352 | 00:39:58 --> 00:40:08 | oranges, and sometimes you don't, you. Uh, orange juice. It's just, uh, for a |
353 | 00:40:08 --> 00:40:13 | long time I wouldn't drink it. Back in the 90s, I had, I got my first slap |
354 | 00:40:14 --> 00:40:23 | trading orange juice futures in the option market. First trade like that, |
355 | 00:40:23 --> 00:40:29 | and then I lost half my money. All right, 10 seconds. |
356 | 00:40:40 --> 00:40:44 | All right. Now it's been 15 minutes after the non front payroll release, so |
357 | 00:40:45 --> 00:40:51 | you want to go through your charts and see what is left. Going back through |
358 | 00:40:51 --> 00:41:01 | price here on a one minute chart, okay, nothing really to speak of there. You |
359 | 00:41:01 --> 00:41:07 | have to go to a five minute chart. I mentioned this down here, so I will |
360 | 00:41:07 --> 00:41:14 | already have this on the chart in the event that it does trade here. My |
361 | 00:41:14 --> 00:41:18 | interest in that is not to see it come down for a buy. I'm not looking at it |
362 | 00:41:18 --> 00:41:23 | like that. If it goes down there, I'm going to see it trade down through it, |
363 | 00:41:23 --> 00:41:28 | come back up, treat it as an inversion, fair value gap to ride to minor sell |
364 | 00:41:28 --> 00:41:34 | side. That's where my interest lays. Right now, I'm not arguing, and I'm not |
365 | 00:41:34 --> 00:41:39 | fighting what it's doing here. I'm just not interested, because right now it's |
366 | 00:41:39 --> 00:41:47 | in an area where it's no trade. For me, it's straight from 830 right on up. So |
367 | 00:41:47 --> 00:41:52 | what is this? To me? In my mind, it's a Judah swing. I'm looking at this as |
368 | 00:41:53 --> 00:42:00 | bait. I'm looking at it as John Q Public. He just got done reading, you |
369 | 00:42:00 --> 00:42:06 | know, a couple books, Elliot, wave pitchforks, you know, Dow Theory, white |
370 | 00:42:06 --> 00:42:11 | golf. He's watched some Supply and Demand videos, and he's looking at this |
371 | 00:42:11 --> 00:42:17 | and he's thinking, wow, this is a bullish market. Like, this is, this is |
372 | 00:42:17 --> 00:42:23 | clearly going up. So they're going to look at indicators. They're going to |
373 | 00:42:23 --> 00:42:27 | plot their little moving averages. They're going to put pivot numbers on |
374 | 00:42:27 --> 00:42:32 | they're going to look for anything and everything they get in this to go up. |
375 | 00:42:34 --> 00:42:37 | And the other ones that are just looking at this, they're just simply going to |
376 | 00:42:37 --> 00:42:40 | put a buy stop right above this candlestick here, and if it goes up |
377 | 00:42:40 --> 00:42:44 | there, they're going to get tripped in go long. So they're just looking for any |
378 | 00:42:44 --> 00:42:53 | excuse to get into the market. Long. From this candle at 830 that low to this |
379 | 00:42:53 --> 00:43:05 | high has been one straight direction. No stop run, no candlestick, taking out any |
380 | 00:43:05 --> 00:43:12 | trailed cell, stops for anyone that we long, because no one could get long. So |
381 | 00:43:12 --> 00:43:19 | all of this is just building in a premium ahead of the 930 opening bell. |
382 | 00:43:22 --> 00:43:27 | There and what I'm anticipating is I want to see us |
383 | 00:43:33 --> 00:43:40 | inside that 30 minute interval of time. I want to see some reason why, during |
384 | 00:43:41 --> 00:43:47 | this 30 minutes, but it could happen before I want To see it trade down into |
385 | 00:43:47 --> 00:43:48 | this. |
386 | 00:43:59 --> 00:44:09 | Let's do uh let's leave it there was. We'll come back to it. Minor cell side |
387 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:19 | under here. I have the pups kennel in there next to me, and if I leave the |
388 | 00:44:19 --> 00:44:27 | room, because my wife's out shopping right now. I can't I can't live stream |
389 | 00:44:27 --> 00:44:32 | because they'll be hound and barking, and it'll distract me, so you're going |
390 | 00:44:32 --> 00:44:37 | to hear them moving around. They're trying to still get my attention. But I |
391 | 00:44:37 --> 00:44:42 | see this as just basically pumping it up, providing a premium. Now here's |
392 | 00:44:42 --> 00:44:45 | where I could be wrong, and I'm completely content with being wrong. |
393 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:48 | They could just keep pushing this higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, |
394 | 00:44:48 --> 00:44:52 | to run to this as the daily objective. And that's, that's the That's it. That's |
395 | 00:44:52 --> 00:45:00 | the objective. I will look at something inside of the 930 to 10 o'clock i. The |
396 | 00:45:00 --> 00:45:08 | opening range. And see, I trust that if it doesn't get there before then, and it |
397 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:13 | is, in fact, trying to get up there between these two time points, I have |
398 | 00:45:13 --> 00:45:18 | confidence that I would see something in there that would afford me an entry idea |
399 | 00:45:19 --> 00:45:22 | that would deliver from there up to there, if this is, in fact, where it's |
400 | 00:45:22 --> 00:45:29 | going to happen, where I have to let go of the marketplace and potentially miss |
401 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:34 | a move is waiting for the opening bell, because it could just keep on going up |
402 | 00:45:34 --> 00:45:38 | there, and it's a move that I just simply missed, and it's okay. There's |
403 | 00:45:38 --> 00:45:46 | lots I don't trade every fluctuation the other day, when we were doing the I was |
404 | 00:45:46 --> 00:45:50 | teaching you how to trade volatility pinball, which is just a execution |
405 | 00:45:50 --> 00:45:54 | drill, just conditioning yourself, taking every single fair value gap, |
406 | 00:45:54 --> 00:45:57 | every single one of them, and running for the nearby high or relative equal |
407 | 00:45:57 --> 00:46:01 | high, or the nearby low or relative equal Low. And just doing that all |
408 | 00:46:01 --> 00:46:05 | session long until you get around 10 to 15. Or if you got time to sit in front |
409 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:08 | of the charts all day long, take a couple breaks throughout the day, get |
410 | 00:46:08 --> 00:46:13 | some circulation in your legs and whatnot. Do as much as you can. Have fun |
411 | 00:46:13 --> 00:46:18 | with it. And you watched, let's just say that that was a $10,000 account and |
412 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:26 | trading with one contract. You know that's 38% that was posted doing just a |
413 | 00:46:26 --> 00:46:33 | drill. So there's lots of setups that are available. And the NASDAQ is going |
414 | 00:46:33 --> 00:46:39 | to move over 650 handles today. It's going to move over 800 handles today. |
415 | 00:46:41 --> 00:46:47 | It's going to move 1000 handles today. Before it closes, it's going to move |
416 | 00:46:47 --> 00:46:55 | that much now to the to the novice, to neophyte, they hear this is going to go |
417 | 00:46:55 --> 00:46:58 | up 1000 handles, and it's already people typing up stuff going in their personal |
418 | 00:46:58 --> 00:47:02 | messages, direct messages, I should be saying it's going to move 1000 handles |
419 | 00:47:02 --> 00:47:06 | today up. I didn't say that. Others are going to say. ICT said, now that's going |
420 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:11 | to drop 1000 handles today. I didn't say that either. I said, now that's going to |
421 | 00:47:11 --> 00:47:18 | move 1000 handles today before it closes. Don't believe me. Be long when |
422 | 00:47:18 --> 00:47:25 | it does a 30 handle retracement. Lower. Get squeezed out, close the trade, go |
423 | 00:47:25 --> 00:47:29 | short, thinking that's where it's going to go. And then ride a move that goes up |
424 | 00:47:29 --> 00:47:35 | for 50 handles. We're already almost at 100 handles. And then it's going to do |
425 | 00:47:35 --> 00:47:43 | this back and forth, back and forth all afternoon on a one minute chart on less |
426 | 00:47:43 --> 00:47:48 | than one minute chart that's happening all day long. So 1000 handles is easy |
427 | 00:47:48 --> 00:47:56 | every single day, even in small Range Days. So there's never a short supply of |
428 | 00:47:56 --> 00:48:04 | opportunities, but there is a very short supply of high probability, high yield, |
429 | 00:48:06 --> 00:48:15 | low risk setups in a day, those are not ample. There is an ample supply of that. |
430 | 00:48:15 --> 00:48:22 | So you have to be a little more selective. And on a day like this, you |
431 | 00:48:22 --> 00:48:26 | have to submit that you're going to probably miss a move. I'm not going to |
432 | 00:48:26 --> 00:48:30 | chase a day like this. You've seen, I think, two times now since we did 2024 |
433 | 00:48:31 --> 00:48:37 | mentorship, since I started teaching with these principles, you've watched me |
434 | 00:48:37 --> 00:48:42 | sit in the live stream and explain how if it keeps going up, it's going to go |
435 | 00:48:42 --> 00:48:47 | without me, and it's okay. I have no anxiety, I have no shame, I don't have |
436 | 00:48:47 --> 00:48:52 | any kind of regret. I don't feel like I don't know what I'm doing. I'm not |
437 | 00:48:52 --> 00:48:56 | thinking that, you know, oh, the viewers of the stream are going to think my |
438 | 00:48:56 --> 00:48:59 | concepts don't work. I don't think that at all. I mean, it doesn't matter, |
439 | 00:48:59 --> 00:49:02 | because even when I do trade them, and I'm pushing the button and it works. |
440 | 00:49:02 --> 00:49:06 | Some people will still say they don't work. It just happens that I got lucky |
441 | 00:49:06 --> 00:49:11 | that day, right? But moves like this, where it's just one sided, it just keeps |
442 | 00:49:11 --> 00:49:19 | going, going going, going to me, I'm not trading them, and it's okay, because |
443 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:24 | this isn't the only setup. This isn't the only price run for today. It just |
444 | 00:49:24 --> 00:49:29 | means that this is the one that everybody else is going to focus on, and |
445 | 00:49:29 --> 00:49:34 | they're going to build a case around whether or not they're a good trader, or |
446 | 00:49:34 --> 00:49:37 | anyone that doesn't take that trade and didn't take it with them, they're not |
447 | 00:49:37 --> 00:49:42 | good. Or if you didn't take this trade, you're you're a loser. If you didn't get |
448 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:47 | long on this you're full. You know, something by that effect where I'm |
449 | 00:49:47 --> 00:49:52 | sitting here trying to be a voice of reason and tell you there's nothing in |
450 | 00:49:52 --> 00:50:01 | here that I would have been long on nothing, because the risk is too i. Uh, |
451 | 00:50:01 --> 00:50:05 | prevalent. And I don't want to just take risks to sort of sake of saying I got in |
452 | 00:50:05 --> 00:50:10 | on Non Farm Payroll, which is what most new traders want to do. They want to be |
453 | 00:50:10 --> 00:50:14 | able to say, like the badge, like you're all part of the Boy Scouts, and you get |
454 | 00:50:14 --> 00:50:19 | that little badge, a little that merit badge, says I survived Non Farm Payroll. |
455 | 00:50:19 --> 00:50:24 | I lost my ass and an arm and a leg. But, you know, I survived Non Farm Payroll. |
456 | 00:50:26 --> 00:50:30 | No, thanks. That's not what I want to do. You know, I'm not trying to |
457 | 00:50:30 --> 00:50:34 | cultivate that as an aspiration for any of my students. I want you to say, You |
458 | 00:50:34 --> 00:50:39 | know what? This is an interesting price delivery. I'm thankful I'm not part of |
459 | 00:50:39 --> 00:50:43 | it, because I wouldn't be able to trust where the stop loss would be, because, |
460 | 00:50:43 --> 00:50:47 | have you considered that? Where would your stop loss be? Say you wanted to |
461 | 00:50:47 --> 00:50:52 | chase this and go along. Where are you going to place a stop loss that you can |
462 | 00:50:52 --> 00:50:58 | trust it? It's most likely not going to hit it. I don't have one that I could |
463 | 00:50:58 --> 00:51:03 | hang my hat on and say, Yeah, I feel confident. I feel fairly confident that |
464 | 00:51:03 --> 00:51:09 | the market couldn't retrace down to get my cell stop based on this study on it's |
465 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:13 | nothing that I can do that with here, because this is a one shot rate from the |
466 | 00:51:13 --> 00:51:20 | opening at 830 and it's just gravitating towards where I said, the traders that |
467 | 00:51:20 --> 00:51:25 | are holding the profitable positions. Let's go back out for a moment. |
468 | 00:51:39 --> 00:51:43 | Remember I was saying to you, most of you that see this big sell side of |
469 | 00:51:43 --> 00:51:47 | balance by sign efficiency. Some of you are thinking when we were here that it's |
470 | 00:51:47 --> 00:51:51 | going to go up just to go in there. And I said, if they're going to go there, |
471 | 00:51:51 --> 00:51:55 | they're not going to be content with just going there. They're going to go to |
472 | 00:51:55 --> 00:52:00 | where the positions are protected. What positions anyone that was fortunate |
473 | 00:52:00 --> 00:52:03 | enough, but not smart enough. They have already gotten out of their short |
474 | 00:52:04 --> 00:52:10 | they're entering inside this area anywhere in here, somebody. We don't |
475 | 00:52:10 --> 00:52:15 | need another name. We don't know the need another social security number, |
476 | 00:52:15 --> 00:52:19 | where their geographic location is on the spinning globe. It's not a flat |
477 | 00:52:19 --> 00:52:25 | earth, by the way. The the consolidation in here, we have to look at someone went |
478 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:33 | short. So to be short and hold the position with a stop loss, it's going to |
479 | 00:52:33 --> 00:52:38 | be at least the very minimum above this high. And because this high is slightly |
480 | 00:52:38 --> 00:52:42 | lower than that one, this means this is what high probability, relative equal |
481 | 00:52:42 --> 00:52:49 | high. So it's a prime candidate for it to be what taken. So don't subscribe |
482 | 00:52:49 --> 00:52:53 | just merely because there's an efficiency here and think that, well, |
483 | 00:52:53 --> 00:52:56 | this is it. You know, we don't have to worry about anything else, except for it |
484 | 00:52:56 --> 00:53:02 | going up to here, because it's already done that. I subscribed to the idea at |
485 | 00:53:02 --> 00:53:06 | the beginning of the stream that if it's going to go here, why not just go up |
486 | 00:53:06 --> 00:53:10 | here where the actual orders are? Because this isn't going to have a lot |
487 | 00:53:10 --> 00:53:15 | of orders just trading back up to that candlesticks low. That's not a large |
488 | 00:53:15 --> 00:53:21 | pool of orders. The large pool of orders is resting at this high, in this high, |
489 | 00:53:21 --> 00:53:24 | in this general proximity, right here, watch, |
490 | 00:53:34 --> 00:53:42 | and that band right there, that's where the actual buy stops are. They're not at |
491 | 00:53:42 --> 00:53:47 | the top of the sell side of balance, buy side. Efficiency, the delivery to price |
492 | 00:53:48 --> 00:53:52 | is just being offered there for the purpose and mechanism of efficient |
493 | 00:53:52 --> 00:53:57 | delivery. It's not that there's a specific number of important buy stops |
494 | 00:53:57 --> 00:54:02 | there. The algorithm is just simply trading there. So the pools of the |
495 | 00:54:02 --> 00:54:07 | liquidity are absolutely at the highs and the lows. Okay, I had someone send |
496 | 00:54:07 --> 00:54:11 | me a comment and said, Are there larger pools of liquidity that are not above |
497 | 00:54:11 --> 00:54:17 | old highs or not below old lows? No, there are not. The largest pools of |
498 | 00:54:17 --> 00:54:22 | liquidity are always absolutely above old highs, and that's buy side or buy |
499 | 00:54:22 --> 00:54:27 | stops, or below old lows, and that sell stops or sell side, anything that |
500 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:30 | anybody tells you outside of that is Grade A bullshit. Okay? They're all |
501 | 00:54:30 --> 00:54:33 | trying to twist something and create some kind of new theory, some new |
502 | 00:54:33 --> 00:54:38 | science. And they're they're just tossing things against the wall and |
503 | 00:54:38 --> 00:54:42 | seeing what sticks, and if they can get a filing that starts having some view |
504 | 00:54:42 --> 00:54:46 | about some new thing, you know, that'll give them traction, and then they gotta |
505 | 00:54:46 --> 00:54:51 | they have a crowd, and they can milk that cloud at that crowd for money. So |
506 | 00:54:52 --> 00:54:55 | again, the market goes up just to reprice for the purpose of efficiently |
507 | 00:54:55 --> 00:55:01 | delivering what the counter delivery to this. Down move efficient market |
508 | 00:55:01 --> 00:55:05 | delivery is that it needs to create a candlestick that does this. I |
509 | 00:55:23 --> 00:55:28 | A down closed candle. For me, that's a Black Candle, and a green candle is a |
510 | 00:55:28 --> 00:55:34 | bullish candle on my charts. So it would be like this. It would deliver, in the |
511 | 00:55:34 --> 00:55:39 | future, some kind of a delivery where price is being offered going back up. |
512 | 00:55:39 --> 00:55:44 | We've seen that here. But that's not the end of the story. You gotta think, Why? |
513 | 00:55:44 --> 00:55:48 | Why would it won't even go up here in the first place. Does it add in |
514 | 00:55:48 --> 00:55:55 | efficiency? It was only offering sell side delivery. That means movement |
515 | 00:55:55 --> 00:56:00 | lower. So if it's going to go lower, and the algorithm does two things, it |
516 | 00:56:00 --> 00:56:04 | reprices To engage liquidity. It doesn't know how many stops are above an old |
517 | 00:56:04 --> 00:56:09 | high. It does not know how many stops are below an old low. But where there |
518 | 00:56:09 --> 00:56:15 | are inefficiencies, where it's just one single candlestick that makes a range in |
519 | 00:56:15 --> 00:56:20 | and of itself like an island. This one single candle before this candle where |
520 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:27 | that line is attached to it. This candle sticks low and this candle sticks high. |
521 | 00:56:28 --> 00:56:35 | This single candle has an inefficiency. It was sell side delivery, but it's |
522 | 00:56:35 --> 00:56:43 | inefficient in buy side. It means it hasn't offered price inside the time. |
523 | 00:56:44 --> 00:56:50 | Listen, folks, the time between this candles high, that candles low, the |
524 | 00:56:50 --> 00:56:56 | interval of time needs to be rebalanced with price, so price will go higher on |
525 | 00:56:56 --> 00:57:00 | the buy side delivery. It means over overlapping. The same price range |
526 | 00:57:00 --> 00:57:04 | between this candle is low. This candle is high. You are expecting in the future |
527 | 00:57:05 --> 00:57:09 | a pass break, back up over top of the single candle. And once it does that and |
528 | 00:57:09 --> 00:57:16 | it touches this candle is low. This has been efficiently delivered. That is not |
529 | 00:57:16 --> 00:57:21 | a balanced price range. It just means it's been efficiently delivered. So back |
530 | 00:57:21 --> 00:57:28 | to the discussion about why that's simply not enough. The market going into |
531 | 00:57:28 --> 00:57:35 | this area and offering efficient price and not taking a ride into these stops, |
532 | 00:57:36 --> 00:57:41 | to me, would be a rather interesting observation today, because this is where |
533 | 00:57:41 --> 00:57:48 | the actual orders are. There are no orders essentially, that are |
534 | 00:57:51 --> 00:57:55 | outnumbering. Let's say it that way, the actual liquidity that rests in these |
535 | 00:57:55 --> 00:58:00 | highs the market driven down into that target we had in the blue shaded area. |
536 | 00:58:00 --> 00:58:03 | It's the weekly buy, some balance outside efficiency. Balance, outside |
537 | 00:58:03 --> 00:58:07 | efficiency. It delivered that, and it delivered it quickly, and then we did |
538 | 00:58:07 --> 00:58:12 | not make anything lower. So the individuals that were sitting with the |
539 | 00:58:12 --> 00:58:16 | largest form of profit that's still open, if they're holding the shorts, |
540 | 00:58:17 --> 00:58:20 | their stop loss orders are here. Not all of them, most of them already been |
541 | 00:58:20 --> 00:58:27 | stopped out with this return back to that high, this spike taking out that |
542 | 00:58:27 --> 00:58:32 | high, and then obviously the non front payroll today took out that high, but |
543 | 00:58:32 --> 00:58:40 | we're above this inefficiency now, right here. So it goes without saying that non |
544 | 00:58:40 --> 00:58:48 | prom payroll is used to disrupt what's already in play, what's in play, the |
545 | 00:58:48 --> 00:58:56 | shorts from here. Now, it could have very easily from here dropped down, |
546 | 00:58:57 --> 00:59:03 | disrupted these and then made this the daily run I would have rather seen that, |
547 | 00:59:03 --> 00:59:09 | to be honest with you. But as it is, we just started right at 830 and just |
548 | 00:59:09 --> 00:59:13 | started running rate for this inefficiency. It's no longer |
549 | 00:59:13 --> 00:59:19 | inefficient. Now. It's been efficiently delivered. It is not a balanced price |
550 | 00:59:19 --> 00:59:24 | range yet, so we still have to submit to the idea that there might be going to |
551 | 00:59:24 --> 00:59:31 | take us up into here, so it can keep us real close to where the inefficiency |
552 | 00:59:31 --> 00:59:36 | high of the city and the city is this. I mean, let me draw it out in case there |
553 | 00:59:36 --> 00:59:37 | are new people here. I'm |
554 | 00:59:49 --> 00:59:55 | this is the inefficiency, and you can see how we already painted right over |
555 | 00:59:55 --> 01:00:05 | top of this individual candlestick. And. That one right here, and then we have |
556 | 01:00:05 --> 01:00:11 | all this delivery right back over top of it. You see that this is usually seen |
557 | 01:00:11 --> 01:00:17 | with one single candle, but in here it took two. It's fine, whatever it took. |
558 | 01:00:17 --> 01:00:23 | Time wise, to make this city. You're always anticipating price to do the same |
559 | 01:00:23 --> 01:00:32 | thing time wise. So between the interval of this candlesticks low to this |
560 | 01:00:32 --> 01:00:38 | candlesticks high, that same one single candle, you're always anticipating the |
561 | 01:00:38 --> 01:00:43 | delivery to be the same type of delivery on the other side. So that tells, it |
562 | 01:00:43 --> 01:00:48 | tells you a whole lot, teaches you what speed and magnitude whenever you see me |
563 | 01:00:48 --> 01:00:53 | talk about when I'm in a live stream, or if I'm in a live execution, and I'm |
564 | 01:00:53 --> 01:00:56 | recording the trade, and I'm annotating by typing out what I think, and I'll |
565 | 01:00:56 --> 01:01:01 | say, Okay, I expect to see speed in distance, or speed and magnitude. I want |
566 | 01:01:01 --> 01:01:08 | to see speed. I want to see large candles. Now it's underneath this idea |
567 | 01:01:08 --> 01:01:14 | where it's overlapping something that's inefficient. So if the inefficiency was |
568 | 01:01:14 --> 01:01:19 | manifested in the sense that it's been delivered to the sell side quickly and |
569 | 01:01:19 --> 01:01:26 | sudden, it goes without saying that you should see buy side driven quickly to |
570 | 01:01:26 --> 01:01:31 | reprice over top of this. Now that's not always the same, because sometimes |
571 | 01:01:31 --> 01:01:36 | you'll see that the market will go up a little bit and come back down, go up a |
572 | 01:01:36 --> 01:01:40 | little bit and come back down, go up a little bit and come back down, go up a |
573 | 01:01:40 --> 01:01:44 | little bit and come back down. And just keeps grinding like that. That's high |
574 | 01:01:44 --> 01:01:51 | resistance inside in inefficiency. Those are the times where you're going to get |
575 | 01:01:51 --> 01:01:56 | smacked around and it's just they're holding it back. Because in normal |
576 | 01:01:56 --> 01:02:02 | delivery, it should be single pass, inefficient, single pass, quickly and |
577 | 01:02:02 --> 01:02:07 | delivered. But if you ever see inside of an inefficiency like this, and it goes |
578 | 01:02:07 --> 01:02:10 | up in a little sputtering, little bit of move back and forth, back and forth, |
579 | 01:02:10 --> 01:02:13 | that's a manual intervention as well. Why? Because we're inside of an |
580 | 01:02:13 --> 01:02:19 | inefficiency or gap, and price is doing what it's being held back stagnant, even |
581 | 01:02:19 --> 01:02:24 | though it's still pricing over and over and over and over higher highs. Just |
582 | 01:02:24 --> 01:02:26 | realize that you're going to be in a trade that's going to have a whole lot |
583 | 01:02:26 --> 01:02:31 | more retracements. So if you're long and say it's not Non Farm Payroll, you |
584 | 01:02:31 --> 01:02:36 | should not be trying to chase or Trailer Stop Loss up, just lock in cover costs. |
585 | 01:02:36 --> 01:02:39 | Give yourself something that's a nice dinner out in case you get stopped out |
586 | 01:02:39 --> 01:02:44 | and just let it go. It's hard to hold those types of trades. It really is, but |
587 | 01:02:44 --> 01:02:48 | you just got to do it that way, otherwise you're going to be more prone |
588 | 01:02:48 --> 01:02:53 | to being stopped out. So we're not subscribing. I'm not trying to tell you |
589 | 01:02:53 --> 01:02:56 | to subscribe to the idea just because we go here, we're done, because we've |
590 | 01:02:56 --> 01:03:02 | already done what we went above it. So this is where the actual orders are, |
591 | 01:03:04 --> 01:03:11 | right here. If you have, like book map, or if you have something similar, I know |
592 | 01:03:11 --> 01:03:15 | Matt cohort has something he does that's along the same lines. It's like a |
593 | 01:03:15 --> 01:03:20 | liquidity map or whatever. If you use that, take a look at it and take a look |
594 | 01:03:20 --> 01:03:28 | at the the highs here and here, and start watching what those, what those |
595 | 01:03:28 --> 01:03:33 | price levels have on those types of tools. I'm saying, you know, before we |
596 | 01:03:33 --> 01:03:42 | had the the opening at 830 there, that this was minor, and this is primary. And |
597 | 01:03:42 --> 01:03:47 | also stated that Who's In Who's in profit right now at the time of 830 the |
598 | 01:03:47 --> 01:03:52 | shorts are that's what the largest move lower. We haven't made new ground. Lower |
599 | 01:03:52 --> 01:03:57 | than that. We've consolidated. So don't just think that we're going up here to |
600 | 01:03:58 --> 01:04:02 | rebalance this. If we're going up here, I'm going to submit to the idea that |
601 | 01:04:02 --> 01:04:08 | they're going up there to cannibalize these position holders that are short, |
602 | 01:04:08 --> 01:04:13 | that have their stop losses here, and who would have stops up there, deeper |
603 | 01:04:13 --> 01:04:17 | pockets than you and I, large institutions, large institutional |
604 | 01:04:17 --> 01:04:21 | investors. They're not in the business of trailing their stop loss. They don't, |
605 | 01:04:21 --> 01:04:25 | they don't look at okay, it's dropped down 10 handles. Let me, let me move my |
606 | 01:04:25 --> 01:04:30 | stop to break even. That's not what they're doing. So they're going to hold |
607 | 01:04:30 --> 01:04:36 | on to positions with stops way outside the range of in their in their view, |
608 | 01:04:36 --> 01:04:39 | it's just static price action. They don't want to get chopped up in a normal |
609 | 01:04:39 --> 01:04:44 | delivery of volatility, so when they put their positions on, they leave their |
610 | 01:04:44 --> 01:04:49 | core protective stops above their entry. So that way, they're not needing to have |
611 | 01:04:49 --> 01:04:54 | an analyst or a Trade Manager babysitting every fluctuation over |
612 | 01:04:54 --> 01:04:59 | price, because they're managing billions of dollars, so you're worrying about |
613 | 01:04:59 --> 01:05:04 | your one. Lot, your micro lot, you know, on a funded account where, you know, if |
614 | 01:05:04 --> 01:05:09 | you lose, you lost the activation fee or whatever it is that you make you pay. In |
615 | 01:05:09 --> 01:05:15 | this case, they stand to lose billions of dollars, millions of dollars at the |
616 | 01:05:15 --> 01:05:21 | minimum, right? So my eye is trying to look for evidence that it's going to |
617 | 01:05:21 --> 01:05:26 | continue to drive to here, and we're close to the opening bell. We're almost |
618 | 01:05:26 --> 01:05:30 | at 10 minutes after so we have 20 minutes or so away being right here. |
619 | 01:05:31 --> 01:05:38 | They could use the opening range, the first 30 minutes to drive up into this |
620 | 01:05:38 --> 01:05:44 | liquidity here, and then take in an account what, what's going to be here. |
621 | 01:05:44 --> 01:05:48 | When we look at record trading hours, an enormous gap. Remember, we're sitting |
622 | 01:05:48 --> 01:05:52 | right here above this inefficiency. Price is sitting right there in |
623 | 01:05:52 --> 01:05:57 | electronic trading hours, and this is previous day's settlement price down |
624 | 01:05:57 --> 01:06:03 | here. So we have a very large gap. So if we're going to be in close proximity to |
625 | 01:06:03 --> 01:06:07 | those relative equal highs, which is the primary buy side, which you can't see it |
626 | 01:06:07 --> 01:06:13 | here, notice that, but we're sitting right here based on actual electronic |
627 | 01:06:13 --> 01:06:17 | trading hours right now. The chart shows regular trading hours. So this is how we |
628 | 01:06:17 --> 01:06:23 | determine what our gap is, our opening range gap looking at electronic trading |
629 | 01:06:23 --> 01:06:29 | hours. We're sitting right here at the top of it. So is it unreasonable to |
630 | 01:06:30 --> 01:06:35 | anticipate them keeping price in this general area and then running it as a |
631 | 01:06:35 --> 01:06:43 | Judas swing on regular trading hours? So words, let me, let me show you. Like |
632 | 01:06:43 --> 01:06:48 | this. Right now we see prices sitting essentially right here. |
633 | 01:06:53 --> 01:06:58 | It's the first time a crayons, folks, I'm sorry, the the price right now in |
634 | 01:06:58 --> 01:07:02 | electronic trading hours, it's there. And this line, even though you don't see |
635 | 01:07:02 --> 01:07:07 | the relative equal highs, because it's booked on electronic trading hours this |
636 | 01:07:07 --> 01:07:12 | level, we could see it do this inside of regular trading hours like this. We |
637 | 01:07:12 --> 01:07:22 | could see it deliver a run up to here. Then let's assume, and I'm not saying |
638 | 01:07:22 --> 01:07:31 | this is the case, but let's assume that this is the gap, and we take the |
639 | 01:07:31 --> 01:07:33 | quadrants off, and we're just going to look at the |
640 | 01:07:40 --> 01:07:41 | trying to find the |
641 | 01:07:47 --> 01:07:52 | there it is. Gotta pick some ugly color that's the mid, mid gap, that yellow |
642 | 01:07:52 --> 01:07:56 | line. So assuming that we opened here, and we we're not opening there, because |
643 | 01:07:56 --> 01:08:00 | we still have several minutes before it actually opens at 930 but just play |
644 | 01:08:00 --> 01:08:04 | devil's advocate and say it opens at this price right here and where we had |
645 | 01:08:04 --> 01:08:10 | the previous settlement price down here at 414, yesterday. This is mid gap. So |
646 | 01:08:10 --> 01:08:15 | it could open trade up, bust out the relative equal highs in electronic |
647 | 01:08:15 --> 01:08:27 | training hours. That's this I'm yeah. So open here. Rally up, disrupt the stops, |
648 | 01:08:27 --> 01:08:33 | accumulate those stops, then drop down to mid gap, right there, and then we'll |
649 | 01:08:33 --> 01:08:36 | see if it wants to go low or not. Notice that it's also when it goes to mid gap, |
650 | 01:08:37 --> 01:08:41 | it's basically coming to the high of all this consolidation. It's going to take a |
651 | 01:08:41 --> 01:08:47 | real move to get through all this. Not to say it can, but that's what, that's |
652 | 01:08:47 --> 01:08:51 | what I see in price right now, in the potential scenario that may unfold based |
653 | 01:08:51 --> 01:08:55 | on what I see here, I don't think they're going to let these individuals |
654 | 01:08:55 --> 01:08:59 | off the hook. I think they're, they're, that's the people in play. And if you go |
655 | 01:08:59 --> 01:09:03 | back and listen to the beginning of stream. I was mentioning that Non Farm |
656 | 01:09:03 --> 01:09:11 | Payroll it It's this. It's a disruptive event. It attacks anyone that has the |
657 | 01:09:11 --> 01:09:14 | present profitable sentiment. That's these individuals that are short up |
658 | 01:09:14 --> 01:09:18 | here. And look how close we are to them. And then you have the normal volatility |
659 | 01:09:18 --> 01:09:23 | in the first 30 minutes of trading at 930, to 10 o'clock, it's not |
660 | 01:09:23 --> 01:09:27 | unreasonable to anticipate him, to pump it up, another hand, other handles, to |
661 | 01:09:27 --> 01:09:31 | knock these individuals out. And then the real interesting study is, what do |
662 | 01:09:31 --> 01:09:38 | we do then? Because we have a huge gap that 70% of time number might not be the |
663 | 01:09:38 --> 01:09:42 | first 30 minutes, if it goes down here at all today, it might take a little bit |
664 | 01:09:42 --> 01:09:50 | more time to get time to get down here. So just intermusings, how I internalize |
665 | 01:09:50 --> 01:09:55 | what I'm expecting, how I would look at it today, and it'll get this business |
666 | 01:09:55 --> 01:09:55 | off here I'm. |
667 | 01:10:15 --> 01:10:22 | If that was confusing to you, just know that it's not it's not it's not that |
668 | 01:10:22 --> 01:10:27 | difficult. But toggling between electronic trading hours. Electronic |
669 | 01:10:27 --> 01:10:37 | trading hours is a 6pm to 5pm and then regular trading hours is 9:30am all, all |
670 | 01:10:37 --> 01:10:47 | local time, New York, 9:30am to 4:14pm, and the opening range gap is always |
671 | 01:10:47 --> 01:10:53 | defined by regular trading hours, which is this. And you see, we have an |
672 | 01:10:53 --> 01:11:04 | enormous gap in the making. So opening range, I'm anticipating maybe a little |
673 | 01:11:04 --> 01:11:08 | bit of a drop down, get people thinking, Oh yeah, it's, it's selling off because |
674 | 01:11:08 --> 01:11:15 | it filled in this, this gap. It's liquidity void, which it's not there was |
675 | 01:11:15 --> 01:11:20 | trading in here. So it makes, it's not a liquidity void, but the small little |
676 | 01:11:20 --> 01:11:25 | drop down, and then run it right up into here that'll get the Street Money want |
677 | 01:11:25 --> 01:11:29 | to chase it even more, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, |
678 | 01:11:29 --> 01:11:34 | buying, and then when it gets into here, smart money could sell short against all |
679 | 01:11:34 --> 01:11:39 | these buy stops that'll become a flood of liquidity for willing buyers at a |
680 | 01:11:39 --> 01:11:46 | high price, willing buyers at a higher price, where smart money could use that |
681 | 01:11:46 --> 01:11:52 | to sell to them, and then they could ride down into a gap closure, half the |
682 | 01:11:52 --> 01:11:56 | gap, three quarters the gap, if it completely wipes out and goes down. I |
683 | 01:11:56 --> 01:12:03 | mean, anything can happen. Anything can happen. So just know that. That's what |
684 | 01:12:03 --> 01:12:08 | Non Farm Payroll. It complicates the decision making, so you have to really |
685 | 01:12:08 --> 01:12:17 | know a lot more than you think you should to navigate it well. Now contrast |
686 | 01:12:17 --> 01:12:21 | everything I just said here versus when we're looking at a normal any run in the |
687 | 01:12:21 --> 01:12:24 | middle day where we have a small, little gap, okay, this is where the gap is. |
688 | 01:12:24 --> 01:12:28 | Wait for the first present, the fair value gap. It's pretty straightforward. |
689 | 01:12:28 --> 01:12:32 | The comments are basically saying 2024, mentorship has made everything come |
690 | 01:12:32 --> 01:12:36 | together, connected the dots. I can see this now. I can anticipate it. It's, |
691 | 01:12:36 --> 01:12:42 | it's, it's bridged all these gaps in my understanding, and now you're finding |
692 | 01:12:42 --> 01:12:46 | setups that are much more consistent, and you're comfortable. That's the main |
693 | 01:12:46 --> 01:12:49 | thing. You're comfortable. You're not fearful, you're not anxious, and you're |
694 | 01:12:49 --> 01:12:53 | very calm when you're in the trades. Now, have you noticed that that's what |
695 | 01:12:53 --> 01:12:57 | mentorship is like, that's learning something from someone that knows what |
696 | 01:12:57 --> 01:13:01 | they're doing, and that things that work in the marketplace, not contrive things, |
697 | 01:13:01 --> 01:13:05 | not conjecture things, things that are actually based in, rooted on the truth. |
698 | 01:13:06 --> 01:13:10 | Now contrast all those things with what I just outlined here for nonprofit role. |
699 | 01:13:10 --> 01:13:15 | It's like, wow, this is a lot, exactly. So if you're a brand new student, can |
700 | 01:13:15 --> 01:13:21 | you see how this could quickly drown you? It's difficult, and it's difficult |
701 | 01:13:21 --> 01:13:24 | for me. I ain't gonna lie. I'm gonna tell you straight up, these are very, |
702 | 01:13:24 --> 01:13:29 | very challenging conditions, because I can see multiple scenarios that could |
703 | 01:13:29 --> 01:13:34 | very easily be used, whereas any other given day, I can see how, okay, yeah, |
704 | 01:13:34 --> 01:13:38 | they obviously pump this into a premium. Our large opening gap is going to go 70% |
705 | 01:13:39 --> 01:13:43 | likely back to mid gap in the first 30 minutes. That's your first initial bias. |
706 | 01:13:43 --> 01:13:47 | So you can submit to that idea. If there's a scalp, you can take that. But |
707 | 01:13:47 --> 01:13:51 | once it gets the mid gap, then we have to determine, does it want to continue |
708 | 01:13:51 --> 01:13:55 | in the direction of the gap, or is it a complete gap closure? And then once it |
709 | 01:13:55 --> 01:13:59 | closes the gap, does it go below the gap? If it's a premium gap, then use the |
710 | 01:13:59 --> 01:14:03 | bottom of the gap as resistance or a premium, and then sell off and do a |
711 | 01:14:03 --> 01:14:11 | multiple of that opening range gap of two to three standard deviations. So |
712 | 01:14:11 --> 01:14:17 | your understanding is gradually being increased. Caleb, but you have to have |
713 | 01:14:17 --> 01:14:21 | the willingness to say, I'm not interested in this day, Dad, that's the |
714 | 01:14:21 --> 01:14:24 | answer I'm looking for from you. That is the answer that I want to hear from you. |
715 | 01:14:24 --> 01:14:30 | I want to hear say, You know what I can do without it. And that's maturity. |
716 | 01:14:30 --> 01:14:34 | That's a hard thing to sell to a new trader, new student, because they see |
717 | 01:14:34 --> 01:14:41 | these big candles and invites them like a candy bar, like I want, that I want, |
718 | 01:14:41 --> 01:14:45 | that I'm not satisfied with a consistent 25 to 30 handles every single day. I'm |
719 | 01:14:45 --> 01:14:50 | not satisfied with that. I want to take chance, and the risk is not that |
720 | 01:14:50 --> 01:14:56 | imperative to me as a deterrent to not want to trade this day. That that's the |
721 | 01:14:56 --> 01:15:01 | usual dynamic in the mind of a new trader. You. As they chase the |
722 | 01:15:01 --> 01:15:05 | excitement around it, they think they actually believe that they can be in |
723 | 01:15:05 --> 01:15:09 | this move beforehand and be right enough times and survive it. And it's it's not |
724 | 01:15:09 --> 01:15:16 | the case. It's not the case. Man. So we're going to see here in about 10 |
725 | 01:15:16 --> 01:15:25 | minutes, how the market uses this information. I'm in these next few |
726 | 01:15:25 --> 01:15:35 | minutes, I'm going to talk about Asia, when, when we look at the daily ranges, |
727 | 01:15:35 --> 01:15:41 | okay? And I'm going to take our attention away from all the markups |
728 | 01:15:41 --> 01:15:46 | here. I want to delete them and we'll come back to it in a second. We'll come |
729 | 01:15:46 --> 01:15:50 | back to about three minutes before the opening bell, but we'll remove the |
730 | 01:15:50 --> 01:15:52 | drawings and go to a daily chart. I |
731 | 01:15:59 --> 01:16:07 | want you to think about how when the market doesn't have a economic calendar |
732 | 01:16:07 --> 01:16:15 | event that's a medium or high impact news driver during the 830 to 10 o'clock |
733 | 01:16:15 --> 01:16:19 | crude oil inventory is usually coming around 1030 they're Not really all |
734 | 01:16:19 --> 01:16:24 | impactful to indices or inequities like that's really not, that's not a factor. |
735 | 01:16:25 --> 01:16:29 | But usually you'll have a 10 O'Clock News driver, there'll be a 945 news |
736 | 01:16:29 --> 01:16:38 | driver, there'll be a 930 there'll be a 830 or an 845 news driver, maybe a 915 |
737 | 01:16:39 --> 01:16:43 | something will come out, but somebody's speaking a speech or whatnot, usually |
738 | 01:16:43 --> 01:16:49 | anywhere between 830 and 10 o'clock. That's like your your time when some |
739 | 01:16:49 --> 01:16:55 | kind of an external stimulus will come into the marketplace and be used as a |
740 | 01:16:55 --> 01:16:59 | smoke screen to mask what the market makers are doing, whether |
741 | 01:16:59 --> 01:17:05 | algorithmically or may you intervene, let's assume that there's nothing on the |
742 | 01:17:05 --> 01:17:11 | economic counter going into the next morning. Okay, and also, let's assume |
743 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:17 | that in the last hour of trading, the market trades down and cleans up a pool |
744 | 01:17:17 --> 01:17:23 | of liquidity below relative equal lows, or below a significant low that's been |
745 | 01:17:23 --> 01:17:29 | in the the charts for several days. So during the last hour, they trade down. |
746 | 01:17:30 --> 01:17:34 | Say when the market's bullish. It does this in the last hour, so it engages the |
747 | 01:17:34 --> 01:17:38 | sell side, below a old low, or relative equal lows that's been in the market for |
748 | 01:17:38 --> 01:17:44 | a few days, but they stop it right at the market close, once that sell side's |
749 | 01:17:44 --> 01:17:53 | been taken. That is usually a wonderful time to anticipate, at 6pm when the |
750 | 01:17:53 --> 01:17:59 | market starts trading again, because at 5pm assuming we're not on a Friday, at |
751 | 01:17:59 --> 01:18:07 | 6pm they'll start the new electronic trading hours session. Wait until around |
752 | 01:18:07 --> 01:18:17 | 650, to 710, and you can start looking for reasons to be long then, and look |
753 | 01:18:17 --> 01:18:21 | for setups to trade into the 10 o'clock hour. Not that they all last that long, |
754 | 01:18:22 --> 01:18:28 | but that's the usual protocol I use when I'm trading at Asia. With a high degree |
755 | 01:18:28 --> 01:18:32 | of probability that you're going to have a nice Asian range that last hour of |
756 | 01:18:32 --> 01:18:37 | trading. It's got to upset some kind of liquidity and then stay there into the |
757 | 01:18:37 --> 01:18:42 | close. It cannot go down below, relative equal low or singular low, and then |
758 | 01:18:42 --> 01:18:47 | start rallying in the last hour. That doesn't give you the same high |
759 | 01:18:47 --> 01:18:52 | probability, because what is actually happening is, in those instances, the |
760 | 01:18:52 --> 01:18:56 | last hour is being implemented for smart money to accumulate, the cell stops and |
761 | 01:18:56 --> 01:18:59 | they're just holding it there. And you'll see live streamers that are |
762 | 01:18:59 --> 01:19:03 | expecting a lot more protracted move lower, when then all they're doing is, |
763 | 01:19:03 --> 01:19:07 | there's they're just keeping price there, and they're letting the last flow |
764 | 01:19:07 --> 01:19:13 | of orders coming in, which is a large influx, they're just scooping them all |
765 | 01:19:13 --> 01:19:21 | up, buying, accumulating. And then they know that in Asia, after the first 50 |
766 | 01:19:21 --> 01:19:25 | minutes of trading, the algorithms macro will start spooling price, and then |
767 | 01:19:25 --> 01:19:28 | it'll tell them that they're on side or offside. And then the market, when it |
768 | 01:19:28 --> 01:19:32 | starts to rally, then they take, they take every single discount array to |
769 | 01:19:32 --> 01:19:38 | accumulate more long positions going into the 10 o'clock hour. So if you look |
770 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:45 | at some of the the better days where Asia has had really nice price runs. |
771 | 01:19:46 --> 01:19:51 | Study By contrast, the last hour of trading in the index, and you'll see |
772 | 01:19:51 --> 01:19:56 | clues that you didn't see there before. That is the largest degree of |
773 | 01:19:56 --> 01:20:01 | probability for trading Asian session. To be, you know, it's going to be a |
774 | 01:20:01 --> 01:20:05 | good, good day to trade. It does not mean every single Asian session is a |
775 | 01:20:05 --> 01:20:11 | good trading opportunity. It's not, and I said this at nauseum, but the the |
776 | 01:20:11 --> 01:20:15 | protocol I use is it has to be a day where there isn't going to be any kind |
777 | 01:20:15 --> 01:20:19 | of high impact news drivers or medium impact news drivers, no speeches, no |
778 | 01:20:19 --> 01:20:23 | nothing in the economic calendar between 830 and 10 o'clock the next New York |
779 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:27 | session, because there's an absence of that. They're going to use many times |
780 | 01:20:27 --> 01:20:31 | the Asian session as the low of the day when you're bullish or the high of the |
781 | 01:20:31 --> 01:20:38 | day when you're bearish. And if you look at the the daily chart here, you can |
782 | 01:20:38 --> 01:20:46 | toggle back and forth, and you can see how the days close and open are real |
783 | 01:20:46 --> 01:20:50 | close to one another, not all the time, to kind of find, if you're looking at |
784 | 01:20:50 --> 01:20:55 | how the your charts show in the settlement, but generally you're seeing |
785 | 01:20:55 --> 01:21:00 | the bodies are very close to what The previous bodies closed or opened that |
786 | 01:21:00 --> 01:21:08 | previously. So that indicates there's something going on, but not always is it |
787 | 01:21:08 --> 01:21:13 | the low of the day. You see how close we are in proximity here, between the |
788 | 01:21:13 --> 01:21:18 | previous close and where we opened. But we had all of this, and we had this in |
789 | 01:21:18 --> 01:21:22 | here, so you have to filter out all that. How do you do that? By focusing on |
790 | 01:21:22 --> 01:21:29 | the sessions Asia, seven o'clock to nine. That's your sweet spot. That's |
791 | 01:21:29 --> 01:21:34 | your that's your little working area. Okay? And it could, it can extend its |
792 | 01:21:34 --> 01:21:38 | price runs to 10 o'clock, but usually when we get in 10 o'clock, just square |
793 | 01:21:38 --> 01:21:42 | your positions, or if you're trading with the pretense that it's going to be |
794 | 01:21:42 --> 01:21:48 | a continuation on the daily chart, and you want to capture large range, and |
795 | 01:21:48 --> 01:21:54 | there's no economic news medium impact or high impact or speeches at 830 to 10 |
796 | 01:21:54 --> 01:21:58 | o'clock the next New York session. Take some profit off at 10 o'clock, but leave |
797 | 01:21:58 --> 01:22:04 | a runner some form of position still on it. And you'll see many times that Asia |
798 | 01:22:04 --> 01:22:09 | will start rallying up, and it'll have this uncharacteristic movement. It's |
799 | 01:22:09 --> 01:22:13 | like, where did this come from? Where did this come from? A couple weeks back, |
800 | 01:22:13 --> 01:22:17 | I bought radon market on clothes, and it was doing very similar things. I did |
801 | 01:22:17 --> 01:22:20 | this. I shared this with my private students, and in Asia. Just kept on |
802 | 01:22:20 --> 01:22:27 | going higher, higher, higher, higher, and it looked very similar to what we've |
803 | 01:22:27 --> 01:22:34 | seen so far on this. It was just doing something like this. It's like everybody |
804 | 01:22:34 --> 01:22:38 | was sending me comments in the videos, they were sending me emails. What's |
805 | 01:22:38 --> 01:22:41 | going on Asia? What happened in Asia? And what I just explained to you is what |
806 | 01:22:41 --> 01:22:46 | happens. That's what happens. The smart money uses the market on clothes to |
807 | 01:22:46 --> 01:22:52 | enter, and then they wait for Asia to start, and then at 650, to 710, that |
808 | 01:22:52 --> 01:22:57 | first macro it better start sending price in direction, higher if they're |
809 | 01:22:57 --> 01:23:00 | long. And as it does that, every single time it comes back down to a short term |
810 | 01:23:00 --> 01:23:04 | discount, they're accumulating anymore. And what will happen is Asia will run |
811 | 01:23:04 --> 01:23:07 | all the way up into Midnight. Midnight, you'll have small, you know, small, |
812 | 01:23:07 --> 01:23:11 | little retracement, but then London just keeps on powering up, or it'll |
813 | 01:23:11 --> 01:23:18 | consolidate all through a messy London. And Asia was the real run. London is a |
814 | 01:23:18 --> 01:23:22 | consolidation. And then in New York, you get another stage of what was happening |
815 | 01:23:22 --> 01:23:26 | in Asia. That's the set, that's the first measured move. And then you'll see |
816 | 01:23:26 --> 01:23:30 | the same thing repeated during the New York session, and you'll be up 700 500 |
817 | 01:23:30 --> 01:23:34 | handles on the on the day based on 6pm previous electronic trading hours, |
818 | 01:23:34 --> 01:23:42 | opening price to whatever the high of the day is that's formed in New York. So |
819 | 01:23:42 --> 01:23:45 | as a reminder, that's not an everyday occurrence. That's not something that |
820 | 01:23:45 --> 01:23:50 | tells you that you have a good trading session in Asia like that all the time, |
821 | 01:23:50 --> 01:23:55 | but there are opportunities that you can trade Asia between 650 to 10 o'clock, |
822 | 01:23:55 --> 01:24:04 | because 650 is when the first macro starts to spool and the 750 to 810 in my |
823 | 01:24:04 --> 01:24:10 | opinion, is better, because sometimes they can get a delayed start. So if |
824 | 01:24:10 --> 01:24:17 | there is no obvious run on price at the 650 to 710 macro in Asia, the odds of |
825 | 01:24:17 --> 01:24:22 | the 750 to 810 macro presenting something really nice for Asia, even if |
826 | 01:24:22 --> 01:24:27 | it is going to be a high impact or news impact session in the New York session |
827 | 01:24:27 --> 01:24:31 | later on, you'll still have a really nice opportunity to trade in Asia. It |
828 | 01:24:31 --> 01:24:34 | doesn't mean you're gonna Hunter handles, but you can get anywhere |
829 | 01:24:34 --> 01:24:38 | between 25 and 40 handles in Asia. When it's like that, when the when the 650, |
830 | 01:24:39 --> 01:24:46 | the 710, macro, is silent. It's sitting still. The 750, to 810, macro in Asia is |
831 | 01:24:46 --> 01:24:50 | generally a nice 2020, to 40 handle run, don't take my word for it. Go back and |
832 | 01:24:50 --> 01:24:53 | look at your charts and see it. And don't just look at the last two weeks |
833 | 01:24:53 --> 01:24:56 | and think you have something figured out. Okay, again, I got comments about |
834 | 01:24:56 --> 01:25:03 | some guy who didn't, uh. Systems run on the probabilities of the opening range |
835 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:07 | gap not filling, or, I'm sorry, filling 7% of time in the first 30 minutes. I |
836 | 01:25:07 --> 01:25:13 | have data going back 40 years, so I don't know what your data is, but I have |
837 | 01:25:13 --> 01:25:19 | four decades of data only, so your data is probably skewed, meaning you don't |
838 | 01:25:19 --> 01:25:23 | have the full picture. And I wouldn't just toss that number out there. I'm not |
839 | 01:25:23 --> 01:25:27 | literally pulling out of my ass to sound intelligent. It's based on my own |
840 | 01:25:27 --> 01:25:32 | studies, my own observations. I've been watching the markets for 32 years. I |
841 | 01:25:32 --> 01:25:38 | have data. I've purchased data before I started trading, the markets were |
842 | 01:25:38 --> 01:25:43 | trading, so I had to buy data because I wanted to back test how far, how far |
843 | 01:25:43 --> 01:25:47 | back did these observations I was making exist in price action? So when I tell |
844 | 01:25:47 --> 01:25:52 | you the opening range gaps, these were things that I was dealing with, you |
845 | 01:25:52 --> 01:25:59 | know, currency futures, let's do this. Go back in, put all the lipstick back |
846 | 01:25:59 --> 01:25:59 | on. I'm |
847 | 01:26:04 --> 01:26:10 | control. Z, alright, so we are sitting with a very large opening range gap. |
848 | 01:26:10 --> 01:26:21 | There we are, and let's look at this on a one minute chart. So there is the |
849 | 01:26:23 --> 01:26:36 | burger trading hours settlement to opening price, and that's mid gap. And |
850 | 01:26:40 --> 01:26:46 | now we can go back into electronic trading hours. |
851 | 01:26:52 --> 01:26:58 | Actually get that price. 111, three quarters. I |
852 | 01:27:04 --> 01:27:08 | Okay, so here is mid gap inside of opening range I'm |
853 | 01:28:00 --> 01:28:06 | These are the Days where I'd like to see it not go to mid gap yet. But in fact, |
854 | 01:28:06 --> 01:28:11 | give this initial drop down here to get traders thinking it's going to go lower |
855 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:24 | and then rally it higher and go for the obvious buy side. I Yeah, because if it |
856 | 01:28:24 --> 01:28:30 | comes all the way down to mid gap and decline from there all the way up here, |
857 | 01:28:30 --> 01:28:35 | then I'm, I'm convinced at that time that we won't just go here to go back |
858 | 01:28:35 --> 01:28:38 | down. It's going to go here and then consolidate, accumulate more and go |
859 | 01:28:38 --> 01:28:44 | higher. Even still, if it goes down to the big gap, then comes all the way back |
860 | 01:28:44 --> 01:28:49 | up here, that is not some kind of a run for turtle soup scenario to go lower. |
861 | 01:28:49 --> 01:28:53 | That would be indicative of this is if things gonna go higher, a lot higher. |
862 | 01:28:57 --> 01:29:01 | This box is not an inefficiency. Remember, I was showing you the the |
863 | 01:29:01 --> 01:29:05 | liquidity being taken on that minor buy side. So we take that off, it's going to |
864 | 01:29:05 --> 01:29:08 | confuse your otherwise, I was looking at thinking of myself. What the hell did I |
865 | 01:29:08 --> 01:29:12 | draw that for? Now, you know why I don't like to draw things on my chart. I trade |
866 | 01:29:12 --> 01:29:17 | naked and I look at all the levels here numerically in a notepad form. So I'm |
867 | 01:29:17 --> 01:29:21 | constantly getting a different perspective, not just getting lost in |
868 | 01:29:21 --> 01:29:26 | the candlesticks, as some people might say, I'm looking at the data based on PD |
869 | 01:29:26 --> 01:29:32 | arrays on a notepad, and I'm thinking about what I expect to see in price. I'm |
870 | 01:29:32 --> 01:29:35 | not putting lipstick on a chart, and if I'm throwing things on my chart like |
871 | 01:29:35 --> 01:29:40 | this while I'm teaching, it's very distracting to me, because it's |
872 | 01:29:40 --> 01:29:45 | something I have to whether I want to do it or not. Subconsciously, I'm always |
873 | 01:29:45 --> 01:29:48 | trying to think, did I What did I put that in? Like, the other day, I had |
874 | 01:29:48 --> 01:29:52 | something on there, and it was just saying, just the rectangle that I had |
875 | 01:29:52 --> 01:29:58 | started, and because I lost where I let go of it on here, it appeared on the |
876 | 01:29:58 --> 01:30:02 | lower time frame chart. But. It wasn't something that was really annotating or |
877 | 01:30:03 --> 01:30:06 | drawing any special attention to anything. That's what I want to see. |
878 | 01:30:07 --> 01:30:14 | That type of thing drop down and say, Nope, let's rip it higher. So I want to |
879 | 01:30:14 --> 01:30:19 | see some kind of a fair value gap form as it runs back up into the high of that |
880 | 01:30:19 --> 01:30:22 | Sibi, which is this red shaded area. Remember that inefficiency we were |
881 | 01:30:22 --> 01:30:26 | talking about all morning, of how this is repricing back over top of it. We've |
882 | 01:30:26 --> 01:30:32 | already had multiple candles laid on top of it. This move here could be maybe an |
883 | 01:30:32 --> 01:30:38 | initial Judah swing. Short sellers are trying to trade the gap closure. Even my |
884 | 01:30:38 --> 01:30:41 | studies with the half gap, they might be trying to do that too. I don't want to |
885 | 01:30:41 --> 01:30:46 | see that right now. I want to see it rally and make an attempt to unseat |
886 | 01:30:46 --> 01:30:49 | these individuals, because that that stays true to the form of what Non Farm |
887 | 01:30:49 --> 01:30:54 | Payroll really is. That's the That's the nature of Non Farm Payroll. It's to |
888 | 01:30:54 --> 01:31:00 | disrupt those who are right now profitable. And that's the shorts from |
889 | 01:31:00 --> 01:31:08 | Tuesday, if you had a stop loss up here and you're holding your short you've |
890 | 01:31:08 --> 01:31:12 | seen a lot of ground lost when you're on your position, would you feel confident |
891 | 01:31:12 --> 01:31:14 | that the market is going to reach all the up here to get |
892 | 01:31:22 --> 01:31:33 | you? I Non Farm Payroll is boogeyman trading basically. Who can they get and |
893 | 01:31:33 --> 01:31:34 | are you going to get? Got |
894 | 01:31:40 --> 01:31:50 | one of the best observations, I've noticed is that many of you, some of you |
895 | 01:31:50 --> 01:31:54 | actually were very critical a lot in the comments, but you were doing it in a |
896 | 01:31:54 --> 01:31:58 | respectful manner, so that I didn't, I didn't hide you from the channel, which |
897 | 01:31:58 --> 01:32:03 | means that I will never see your comment. But you think, I can, you'll be |
898 | 01:32:03 --> 01:32:08 | able to see your comment on the YouTube channel. Your post was the only one you |
899 | 01:32:08 --> 01:32:11 | see, but I won't ever, I won't be able to see it if you're rude, if you say |
900 | 01:32:11 --> 01:32:14 | something stupid, you only get one chance to do that, and then I, I |
901 | 01:32:14 --> 01:32:25 | basically it's a little option for a channel holder or owner. If someone |
902 | 01:32:25 --> 01:32:30 | needs a comment, I could delete the comment, and you'll see it deleted. If I |
903 | 01:32:30 --> 01:32:34 | did that, I don't delete comments. I look at removing you from the channel, |
904 | 01:32:34 --> 01:32:37 | meaning you'll be able to leave your comments. You'll be able to talk to |
905 | 01:32:37 --> 01:32:40 | yourself. I won't ever see your comment. No one else sees your comment either, |
906 | 01:32:41 --> 01:32:47 | but some of them in the past have been critical but still respectful, saying, |
907 | 01:32:47 --> 01:32:54 | Listen, you know, I don't see any merit in in these things. I can see that |
908 | 01:32:54 --> 01:32:58 | you're trading and doing executions with them. I'm watching this gap right here, |
909 | 01:32:58 --> 01:33:05 | by the way, the they make the observation saying, Wow, I see your |
910 | 01:33:05 --> 01:33:12 | while I see your executions. I don't see any merit in the the concepts |
911 | 01:33:12 --> 01:33:18 | themselves. So which leads me to believe that these are cherry picked scenarios. |
912 | 01:33:19 --> 01:33:23 | So I can appreciate a comment like that, but then when we come in here and you're |
913 | 01:33:23 --> 01:33:26 | live streaming, and I'm explaining what I think is going to happen in price, and |
914 | 01:33:26 --> 01:33:31 | you've seen some executions now and the logic behind them, using all the logic |
915 | 01:33:31 --> 01:33:36 | that I've taught, and then using that logic against itself and seeing how it |
916 | 01:33:36 --> 01:33:43 | fails. So one of the wonderful things I've had in the last few months, more |
917 | 01:33:43 --> 01:33:47 | specifically, last two weeks, these these live streams and the lectures I've |
918 | 01:33:48 --> 01:33:53 | given have brought a lot of clarity to a lot of you, and the the points that are |
919 | 01:33:53 --> 01:33:58 | repeating are, I'm a whole lot more calmer watching price now, whereas I was |
920 | 01:33:58 --> 01:34:02 | not interested in just looking at price, I wanted to be demoing at least or |
921 | 01:34:02 --> 01:34:07 | trying to pass a funded account challenge, and now the idea of watching |
922 | 01:34:07 --> 01:34:15 | price with the intent to understand it more, somehow, I bridge the gap with a |
923 | 01:34:15 --> 01:34:19 | lot of you, and I'm very thankful for that. As being as a teacher, as a |
924 | 01:34:19 --> 01:34:26 | mentor, that's a very hard barrier to breach with teachers doing some kind of |
925 | 01:34:27 --> 01:34:31 | breakthrough for students to say, Okay, I trust this person teaching me now. I |
926 | 01:34:31 --> 01:34:34 | trust this person, so I'm going to submit to the things they asked me to |
927 | 01:34:34 --> 01:34:39 | do. And I'm seeing a lot of feedback like that now, and it's this really |
928 | 01:34:39 --> 01:34:44 | encouraging as a teacher to see that, because I wear my heart on my sleeve as |
929 | 01:34:44 --> 01:34:48 | a teacher, like whether you paid me in the past, or whether you're watching for |
930 | 01:34:48 --> 01:34:50 | free, and you really don't really appreciate much of what you're getting. |
931 | 01:34:50 --> 01:34:54 | You just want to come here and just sample whatever you think is an |
932 | 01:34:54 --> 01:34:57 | entertainment, or maybe you're running a mentorship, and you're sampling things, |
933 | 01:34:57 --> 01:35:00 | taking things, and saying, Well, I'll add this to my next. Teaching, and I'll |
934 | 01:35:00 --> 01:35:04 | do this, and I'll do that, that to me is not, you're not a student of mine, |
935 | 01:35:04 --> 01:35:10 | You're a parasite. But the students that are here because they're trying to learn |
936 | 01:35:10 --> 01:35:14 | how to do this and be independent from me, that's who I'm teaching. That's |
937 | 01:35:14 --> 01:35:21 | that's target audience. If it's not my son's it's the the alternative is, is |
938 | 01:35:21 --> 01:35:24 | that these individuals that are generally trying to make an effort to |
939 | 01:35:24 --> 01:35:29 | learn how to do it, and they're being serious about it, they're taking it |
940 | 01:35:29 --> 01:35:33 | serious, and that means they're doing these lab experiments of going in and |
941 | 01:35:34 --> 01:35:38 | engaging price on every fair value gap that forms, and looking for a run into |
942 | 01:35:38 --> 01:35:41 | the nearby liquidity. And the feedback I'm getting from that, because now |
943 | 01:35:41 --> 01:35:45 | they're doing that. They're using their demo account properly now, they're not |
944 | 01:35:45 --> 01:35:48 | in here trying to over leverage to show somebody on social media. Look what I |
945 | 01:35:48 --> 01:35:53 | made when you don't have any idea why that, why that panned out, and why is it |
946 | 01:35:53 --> 01:35:59 | going to fail the next time you try it, the the descriptions that everyone's |
947 | 01:35:59 --> 01:36:03 | leaving about, the aha moments, the epiphanies, these these leaps and |
948 | 01:36:03 --> 01:36:09 | understanding and excitement about what they're learning. That's the part that I |
949 | 01:36:09 --> 01:36:14 | love. That's the energy I feed off of, if I can be called a vampire, I'm living |
950 | 01:36:14 --> 01:36:19 | off the energy vicariously by all of you sharing those moments, because that |
951 | 01:36:19 --> 01:36:23 | supercharges me, because I know it was like for me. I know exactly what that |
952 | 01:36:23 --> 01:36:28 | feels like, and I've lost that, because nothing's new to me anymore, and when I |
953 | 01:36:28 --> 01:36:34 | see my students share that, and you can, I can, I can feel the vibrations of |
954 | 01:36:34 --> 01:36:40 | their excitement and their their their passion being stirred up about what |
955 | 01:36:40 --> 01:36:43 | they're learning, and I can tell they're spending time in the charts because |
956 | 01:36:44 --> 01:36:51 | their their remarks are wordy. They're very descriptive. They're they're trying |
957 | 01:36:51 --> 01:36:56 | to do the best to find words to describe how they feel. And I already know what |
958 | 01:36:56 --> 01:36:59 | you feel. I already know. Trust me, I know what that feels like, and it's very |
959 | 01:36:59 --> 01:37:04 | hard to describe it, even though you know that you try very hard to describe |
960 | 01:37:04 --> 01:37:07 | how exciting it is for you right now, because you're seeing things happen in |
961 | 01:37:07 --> 01:37:11 | the chart, and you're looking over your shoulder thinking, How is this possible? |
962 | 01:37:11 --> 01:37:16 | I can see this and just by watching these videos and this this mentorship. |
963 | 01:37:16 --> 01:37:21 | Why is this guy doing this for free? Why? Why am I really allowed to know |
964 | 01:37:21 --> 01:37:26 | this? And that's, that's the that's the wonderful feeling of being informed |
965 | 01:37:26 --> 01:37:33 | money now you're in a small minority group right now, it's even though Smart |
966 | 01:37:33 --> 01:37:39 | Money concepts. SMC, that's my stuff that's in a lot of people's mouths right |
967 | 01:37:39 --> 01:37:45 | now. A lot of people using those terms don't know what they're doing, and a lot |
968 | 01:37:45 --> 01:37:49 | of them are selling content, selling lectures and whatnot, and they're going |
969 | 01:37:49 --> 01:37:54 | around pretending to be informed money when they're not. They're only informed |
970 | 01:37:54 --> 01:37:57 | as much as the replay button Show or what the hindsight chart movement has |
971 | 01:37:57 --> 01:38:03 | shown, and you're learning how to do it independent from me, and that's power, |
972 | 01:38:03 --> 01:38:12 | that's independence, that is maturity. And it's also something that when you |
973 | 01:38:12 --> 01:38:19 | see things get expensive, and we're all seeing that you won't you won't fear, |
974 | 01:38:20 --> 01:38:25 | okay, you can't control inflation. You can't control the higher price of this |
975 | 01:38:25 --> 01:38:30 | stuff, but you do have a skill that you're growing that can outpace |
976 | 01:38:30 --> 01:38:36 | inflation, even hyperinflation. Hyperinflation, costly things. It's not |
977 | 01:38:36 --> 01:38:40 | like nobody wants to have it. I have lots of money, and I still get pissed |
978 | 01:38:40 --> 01:38:44 | off that they're doing what they're doing with the cost of things, because I |
979 | 01:38:44 --> 01:38:47 | know what it feels like when I'm spending money for a month's worth of |
980 | 01:38:47 --> 01:38:52 | groceries and I'm supporting other family members. That's a lot of money in |
981 | 01:38:53 --> 01:38:56 | the hands of someone that works a regular job. That's a lot of money. I |
982 | 01:38:56 --> 01:39:00 | don't know how they're doing it. I don't know how anybody else is doing it, but |
983 | 01:39:00 --> 01:39:07 | you are learning a skill that you can compound a little bit of money into a |
984 | 01:39:08 --> 01:39:14 | secondary income revenue stream that could potentially grow to something that |
985 | 01:39:14 --> 01:39:19 | makes you millions of dollars. And when you have millions of dollars at |
986 | 01:39:19 --> 01:39:23 | disposal, or you can just use it for whatever you want. And want. You sleep a |
987 | 01:39:23 --> 01:39:26 | little bit easier at night. I'm not saying, you know, money should be your |
988 | 01:39:26 --> 01:39:32 | God or your safety net, but it's a tool. It's an absolute tool. But if you don't |
989 | 01:39:32 --> 01:39:35 | have the ability to make money, and if you don't have the ability and the |
990 | 01:39:35 --> 01:39:40 | understanding and the mindset that you can repetitively go out and make more |
991 | 01:39:40 --> 01:39:46 | new money, and you're not limited how much you can make. Who says you can't |
992 | 01:39:46 --> 01:39:53 | make $100,000 in the month of December? Who says you can't? Who could convince |
993 | 01:39:53 --> 01:39:58 | you that you couldn't? You know, no one could convince me. I couldn't. No one |
994 | 01:39:58 --> 01:40:04 | convinced my top tier student. They can't. So when you have that, and you |
995 | 01:40:04 --> 01:40:09 | try to explain to other people that can't do it, it sounds arrogant. It |
996 | 01:40:09 --> 01:40:14 | sounds narcissistic. When it's just that that's them telling you the truth. They |
997 | 01:40:14 --> 01:40:19 | have an ability that they trust in, they have a skill set that they know, that |
998 | 01:40:19 --> 01:40:26 | they can tap into and it's going to serve them in the future. Hey, Caden |
999 | 01:40:26 --> 01:40:35 | blacks. All right. So so far, opening range has been pretty much lackluster. |
1000 | 01:40:35 --> 01:40:35 | You? |
1001 | 01:40:46 --> 01:40:51 | But the main takeaway is that, as a mentor teaching it, I'm happy to see |
1002 | 01:40:51 --> 01:40:56 | people saying I am calm. I'm not in a rush to push the button anymore. I'm |
1003 | 01:40:56 --> 01:41:01 | observing what I'm doing. And here's the main thing that is, I've noticed a lot |
1004 | 01:41:01 --> 01:41:06 | of individuals are now passing their funded account combines in all of the |
1005 | 01:41:06 --> 01:41:10 | other prop firms, like not just one prop firm, like all of them, and they're |
1006 | 01:41:10 --> 01:41:15 | saying what I've learned just in the last nine, eight weeks, or whatever, has |
1007 | 01:41:15 --> 01:41:19 | allowed me to be calm about my executions. Know what I'm looking for. |
1008 | 01:41:19 --> 01:41:24 | And I used to be scared when I put a trade on. I'd be afraid I was going to |
1009 | 01:41:24 --> 01:41:27 | blow the Combine or blow the funded account. And I'm getting payouts now. |
1010 | 01:41:27 --> 01:41:32 | That's the other thing. Combines being passed and payouts. I've not seen such a |
1011 | 01:41:32 --> 01:41:38 | large influx before, larger than I have now in the last two months, because |
1012 | 01:41:38 --> 01:41:42 | people are they're buckling down and saying, You know what? I'm treating it |
1013 | 01:41:42 --> 01:41:46 | like a business. I'm not treating it like online casino, poker and stuff like |
1014 | 01:41:46 --> 01:41:51 | that. You're not gambling. Now, something has happened, some kind of |
1015 | 01:41:51 --> 01:41:55 | shift in your paradigm has caused you to look at things differently now, and I |
1016 | 01:41:55 --> 01:41:59 | don't know what it is specifically, because I've always been teaching like |
1017 | 01:41:59 --> 01:42:03 | this and all of these lessons, really, unless I specifically said this is |
1018 | 01:42:03 --> 01:42:06 | something new, even my mentorship students are learning with you right |
1019 | 01:42:06 --> 01:42:11 | here. It hasn't been a whole lot of that. But because now, I think, because |
1020 | 01:42:11 --> 01:42:14 | things are so expensive, I think people are at their wits end. They're like, |
1021 | 01:42:14 --> 01:42:16 | look, I have to make this work, and I'm going to take it serious. The man's |
1022 | 01:42:16 --> 01:42:19 | putting his time out here for free. I'm going to take advantage of that, and I'm |
1023 | 01:42:19 --> 01:42:23 | going to do what he says, and I'm going to put the work in. That's what I think |
1024 | 01:42:23 --> 01:42:25 | is actually happening. Because all the things I'm teaching here, I taught |
1025 | 01:42:25 --> 01:42:30 | opening gaps. I taught opening range, gap in mentorship. I have students that |
1026 | 01:42:30 --> 01:42:34 | knew about it before. I started talking about, like, that's not new stuff. I've |
1027 | 01:42:34 --> 01:42:42 | taught this before. So what's occurring, I think, is the sense of urgency, while |
1028 | 01:42:42 --> 01:42:47 | you can't speed up your ability to learn how to do this well, you can shorten the |
1029 | 01:42:47 --> 01:42:51 | learning curve by being diligent about how you study and what your expectations |
1030 | 01:42:51 --> 01:43:01 | are while you do it. Let's cut through all this chat here and focusing on this |
1031 | 01:43:01 --> 01:43:06 | gap. Let's see if they use it, and then if it starts to spool, lower this gap |
1032 | 01:43:06 --> 01:43:11 | down here, and then to 70% of the gap closure, I'm sorry, 50% of the gap |
1033 | 01:43:11 --> 01:43:17 | closure, which is 70% likelihood of happening in the first 30 minutes. But |
1034 | 01:43:17 --> 01:43:20 | I'm not holding it to, it to today, because it's not Farm Payroll, and it |
1035 | 01:43:20 --> 01:43:25 | just it's typical to break the rules, which is another reason why I don't like |
1036 | 01:43:25 --> 01:43:32 | to trade it. Do you see any prisons? Easy for you to say. ICT. Do you see any |
1037 | 01:43:32 --> 01:43:39 | precision elements in price action so far today? Nope. So what did I teach you |
1038 | 01:43:39 --> 01:43:43 | this week when you see that lack of precision around my PD arrays. What's |
1039 | 01:43:43 --> 01:43:49 | occurring? Who's in the marketplace, pushing and maneuvering price. It's not |
1040 | 01:43:49 --> 01:43:57 | the buyers and sellers. It's good old Phil. He's doing his job today, moving |
1041 | 01:43:57 --> 01:44:02 | price around, running stops here, pushing it here, pushing it there, and |
1042 | 01:44:02 --> 01:44:06 | there's no rhyme or reason why it's doing it. And that's how you lose money |
1043 | 01:44:06 --> 01:44:09 | saying, Well, I feel like I've been watching this long enough today, it's |
1044 | 01:44:09 --> 01:44:13 | about time I push a button. Let me see what happens when I do this. Well, there |
1045 | 01:44:13 --> 01:44:16 | you go. Congratulations. Here's your ass. Hand it right to you on the silver |
1046 | 01:44:18 --> 01:44:24 | platter. That's not what I'm teaching. I'm teaching what to look for when it's |
1047 | 01:44:24 --> 01:44:27 | high probability. It's obvious, it's one sided. You can't justify going in the |
1048 | 01:44:27 --> 01:44:31 | other direction with it. It's so heavy handed, long or short, that's when |
1049 | 01:44:31 --> 01:44:39 | you're trading immaturity is waiting for those instances where it's so painfully |
1050 | 01:44:39 --> 01:44:45 | obvious, and if you make that your regimen, that is your protocol, that you |
1051 | 01:44:45 --> 01:44:50 | look for every single time you trade, you are going to do the most in terms of |
1052 | 01:44:50 --> 01:44:53 | reducing the likelihood of you blowing your account, reduce the likelihood of |
1053 | 01:44:53 --> 01:44:57 | you going into drawdown, reduce the effects of fear and greed, because you |
1054 | 01:44:57 --> 01:45:03 | know what you're looking for. And I think. Right as a teacher, no better |
1055 | 01:45:03 --> 01:45:10 | reward for our time invested in other people than seeing a student say, I'm so |
1056 | 01:45:10 --> 01:45:15 | proud of myself that I stuck to this because I wanted to quit so many times, |
1057 | 01:45:15 --> 01:45:24 | because it's not easy. It is not easy. But for the folks that have grinded |
1058 | 01:45:24 --> 01:45:30 | through this for several years, I have 2016 first round mentorship students |
1059 | 01:45:31 --> 01:45:34 | that literally has reached out to me in the last two and a half weeks and said, |
1060 | 01:45:34 --> 01:45:40 | Michael, like it was, it was impossible for me to see how any of this could help |
1061 | 01:45:40 --> 01:45:45 | me in I see your students, I see what you're doing, and it still wasn't able |
1062 | 01:45:45 --> 01:45:49 | to bridge the gap for me, this mentorship that what you've shown here, |
1063 | 01:45:49 --> 01:45:54 | like it's something brand new, nothing, nothing I taught here, except for the |
1064 | 01:45:54 --> 01:45:58 | few things I mentioned, like a new week, opening gap, a new day, opening gap, and |
1065 | 01:45:58 --> 01:46:02 | the difference between the two and how to use them. Notice I'm not using them |
1066 | 01:46:02 --> 01:46:06 | every day. I'm reminding you that you don't need those either. They're just |
1067 | 01:46:06 --> 01:46:13 | helpful, they're helpful and using the right context, they're extremely |
1068 | 01:46:13 --> 01:46:18 | precise. But you don't need that. You don't need to bring everything from my |
1069 | 01:46:18 --> 01:46:21 | YouTube channel to your charts and say, I need all this or I can't be |
1070 | 01:46:21 --> 01:46:26 | profitable. And that's the other thing I find it's very encouraging, because now |
1071 | 01:46:26 --> 01:46:32 | you're seeing that my stuff is not complicated. It's very simple. You don't |
1072 | 01:46:32 --> 01:46:36 | you don't need everything that I teach. Need one thing that sets the stage for |
1073 | 01:46:36 --> 01:46:40 | you to be bullish or bearish. Then you have to look at what time of the day |
1074 | 01:46:40 --> 01:46:47 | you're going to trade. Okay, in that time of day, where is the macro? Where's |
1075 | 01:46:47 --> 01:46:51 | the liquidity, what's your multiplier, what's the PD array that you're going to |
1076 | 01:46:51 --> 01:46:54 | be using to get into the trade? These are all the things that are going to be |
1077 | 01:46:54 --> 01:46:58 | hard in the beginning, because you're going to see other students say, I'm |
1078 | 01:46:58 --> 01:47:01 | using the optimal trade entry here. I'm using inversion, fair value gap. I'm |
1079 | 01:47:01 --> 01:47:07 | using propulsion, block order blocks, institutional order flow, entry drills. |
1080 | 01:47:10 --> 01:47:15 | And you you're afraid that you'll spend too much time doing one PD array when |
1081 | 01:47:15 --> 01:47:18 | you're really designed and meant to trade something else, and you're gonna |
1082 | 01:47:18 --> 01:47:22 | think it's the universe trying to communicate to you that this guy's thing |
1083 | 01:47:22 --> 01:47:25 | popped up on my stream. I don't even follow him. He was showing the inversion |
1084 | 01:47:25 --> 01:47:31 | fair Vega. That's the one I should be doing, not the quarter block or breaker. |
1085 | 01:47:31 --> 01:47:46 | You have to start somewhere and then stick to it. Well, it's certainly making |
1086 | 01:47:46 --> 01:47:54 | the case like it wants to get down there. I still wouldn't trade it. See me |
1087 | 01:47:54 --> 01:47:55 | here today. I |
1088 | 01:48:08 --> 01:48:12 | now in an ideal world, if it's bearish, the upper half of this gap should not be |
1089 | 01:48:12 --> 01:48:13 | closed in i |
1090 | 01:48:20 --> 01:48:46 | I'll think about what's below the marketplace right now. You have this |
1091 | 01:48:46 --> 01:48:53 | discount width, consequent encroachment, you have this fair value gap, and you |
1092 | 01:48:53 --> 01:49:01 | have the 70% closure, 70% 50% of the opening range gap that that has 70% |
1093 | 01:49:01 --> 01:49:06 | likelihood of closing within the first 30 minutes of trading. So 10 o'clock is |
1094 | 01:49:06 --> 01:49:10 | here, so you have a couple minutes. |
1095 | 01:49:15 --> 01:49:24 | But I subscribe to the idea that it doesn't have to do that today. I what I |
1096 | 01:49:24 --> 01:49:26 | was saying about this gap here, |
1097 | 01:49:40 --> 01:49:47 | this gap there, Tony, I was watching that we came back up in the body, |
1098 | 01:49:47 --> 01:49:54 | stopped at the upper quadrant of it, and then we broke lower. We created this |
1099 | 01:49:54 --> 01:49:59 | fair value gap, if this was going to be bearish after leaving this gap here. |
1100 | 01:50:00 --> 01:50:04 | Because it showed a signature at the upper upper quadrant, meaning this, look |
1101 | 01:50:04 --> 01:50:09 | at the look at the fifth here. Watch this high up to the high of the volume |
1102 | 01:50:09 --> 01:50:14 | of balance, because you have to factor that in. And then the quadrant levels. I |
1103 | 01:50:14 --> 01:50:24 | know I'm covering price. I'm sorry. I'm trying to be as quick as I can. I'm the |
1104 | 01:50:25 --> 01:50:32 | the bodies are respecting the upper quadrant of that gap. So if the price |
1105 | 01:50:32 --> 01:50:35 | leaves lower like this and creates another fair value gap, this is going to |
1106 | 01:50:35 --> 01:50:42 | be a breakaway gap. So there's our delivery into our fair value gap here, |
1107 | 01:50:42 --> 01:50:53 | and consequent encouragement of this wick would be next, and then half the |
1108 | 01:50:53 --> 01:51:00 | gap. So breakaway gaps? I have a lot of people asking about, Can I comment on |
1109 | 01:51:00 --> 01:51:04 | that what, what you know, what constitutes a breakaway guy? You have to |
1110 | 01:51:04 --> 01:51:08 | be able to identify and admit that you can hear. You know, I'm trying to be |
1111 | 01:51:08 --> 01:51:14 | mindful of the risks of today, because I know that many of you that aren't always |
1112 | 01:51:14 --> 01:51:18 | honest with me, some of you are overzealous, and you do trade your |
1113 | 01:51:18 --> 01:51:22 | account while watching the live stream, and because you made money for the first |
1114 | 01:51:22 --> 01:51:26 | time, you're trying to share that with me on Twitter, and you show me, this is |
1115 | 01:51:26 --> 01:51:31 | what I've made today. Thank you so much, you know, and I appreciate the Thank |
1116 | 01:51:31 --> 01:51:35 | you, but I don't want you thanking me for you doing the things I told you not |
1117 | 01:51:35 --> 01:51:39 | to do. Please don't share your trades with me. Okay? You can share them on |
1118 | 01:51:39 --> 01:51:43 | your social media. You can credit me, if as an influence, but don't put my sim |
1119 | 01:51:43 --> 01:51:48 | like my at don't put my handle in it, because I'll see it and it messes it |
1120 | 01:51:48 --> 01:51:54 | messes me up, because I don't want your risk. I don't want it. And you're going |
1121 | 01:51:54 --> 01:51:57 | to show me where it worked out great, but eventually you're going to do |
1122 | 01:51:57 --> 01:52:01 | something that is ill advised and it's going to hurt you, and you're going to |
1123 | 01:52:01 --> 01:52:06 | complain to me and that that that hurts because you don't listen to me. I don't |
1124 | 01:52:06 --> 01:52:09 | want to see you lose money. I don't want to see you do something wrong, and then |
1125 | 01:52:09 --> 01:52:16 | you get scar tissue from it. But in the comments around all that stuff, a lot of |
1126 | 01:52:16 --> 01:52:22 | folks, there's the consequent correction, the wick, the here comes the |
1127 | 01:52:22 --> 01:52:28 | gap closure to 50% boom. And it happened three, 410, o'clock again. So there's |
1128 | 01:52:28 --> 01:52:33 | your stats still killing ICT style, Mister, I don't think it happens seven |
1129 | 01:52:33 --> 01:52:40 | or seven time. Here's the other gap. I told you I'd like to see. So anyway, let |
1130 | 01:52:40 --> 01:52:46 | me finish this thought here. Because we had this initial gap there, I wanted to |
1131 | 01:52:46 --> 01:52:50 | see how price traded away from it. It did. And then I was watching when price |
1132 | 01:52:50 --> 01:52:54 | was digging up into it. I was waiting to see how the candlesticks are dropped. |
1133 | 01:52:55 --> 01:52:59 | Where are they burying the bodies? Okay, so if they're burying the bodies inside |
1134 | 01:52:59 --> 01:53:04 | that gap, and it's respecting the upper quadrant. That's the same thing, even |
1135 | 01:53:04 --> 01:53:08 | though it wicks outside of that gap. This is normal. We allow for that. What |
1136 | 01:53:08 --> 01:53:12 | is that called a mohawk? It's just coloring outside the lines. It doesn't |
1137 | 01:53:12 --> 01:53:16 | mean something's inherently broken or wrong. Just means it just explored |
1138 | 01:53:16 --> 01:53:21 | outside of that. But the bodies are telling you what. It's respecting the |
1139 | 01:53:21 --> 01:53:25 | upper quadrant of that gap. And that means, if we trade away from it, go |
1140 | 01:53:25 --> 01:53:31 | lower, then it creates that gap with this candlesticks high, as I was telling |
1141 | 01:53:31 --> 01:53:36 | you, this gap. I'm watching it, and if it trades up here, I want to see it |
1142 | 01:53:36 --> 01:53:40 | leave the upper half of that gap open. Well, let's put the divider on it. I'm |
1143 | 01:53:47 --> 01:53:53 | a red line in here a little bit. Do you see the price stopping at halfway point |
1144 | 01:53:53 --> 01:54:00 | and not going in the upper half of that? Pretty, pretty precise, isn't it? So |
1145 | 01:54:03 --> 01:54:07 | because we left this gap in a manner showing these signatures like this, and |
1146 | 01:54:07 --> 01:54:12 | while I'm not willing to take the trade because it's not from payroll, and I |
1147 | 01:54:12 --> 01:54:15 | could be wrong today, and I know people are going to copy me, and they're not |
1148 | 01:54:15 --> 01:54:19 | going to listen to me, and if I'm wrong on a day where I'm like, not likely to |
1149 | 01:54:19 --> 01:54:26 | be perfectly accurate, you could incur a loss. So I'm being very responsible with |
1150 | 01:54:26 --> 01:54:29 | the choice of words I'm having today, because I don't want to entice you to do |
1151 | 01:54:29 --> 01:54:34 | something that you normally would do in other days. I want you to be respecting |
1152 | 01:54:34 --> 01:54:38 | the risk, because this day tends to do things outside of the parameters and |
1153 | 01:54:38 --> 01:54:43 | rules that I give you. That's the number one reason why I don't trade it. It's, |
1154 | 01:54:43 --> 01:54:48 | it's, it's not something that adheres to the rules. Most times, sometimes it can, |
1155 | 01:54:49 --> 01:54:55 | but most times it doesn't. So because I am aware of that, you're unaware of it. |
1156 | 01:54:55 --> 01:54:58 | You think that I'm subliminally trying to tap your shoulder and say, take this |
1157 | 01:54:58 --> 01:55:02 | as a trade and. That's your conscience speaking to you, saying, let's be |
1158 | 01:55:02 --> 01:55:06 | impulsive and look for anything that is a clue to get in here and do something |
1159 | 01:55:06 --> 01:55:10 | when that's not what's going on here, and it certainly wouldn't be going on on |
1160 | 01:55:10 --> 01:55:15 | a Non Farm Payroll day. So if the price is going to drop down into the gap |
1161 | 01:55:15 --> 01:55:22 | closure, half gap, this inefficiency, that first fair value gap that's leading |
1162 | 01:55:22 --> 01:55:28 | here, then it should be met with no willingness to get to the upper half of |
1163 | 01:55:28 --> 01:55:32 | it, because that would indicate what heaviness and it wants to go lower and |
1164 | 01:55:32 --> 01:55:38 | it get it to script so it drives aggressively down inside the time window |
1165 | 01:55:39 --> 01:55:47 | of 10 o'clock. Gap closure. Half was is right here, and it hit it before 10 |
1166 | 01:55:47 --> 01:55:56 | o'clock. So you watched me outline scenarios today that were both sides, |
1167 | 01:55:57 --> 01:56:02 | because it's a day where I can be wrong, and while I was really interested in |
1168 | 01:56:02 --> 01:56:10 | seeing it go higher to upset those those short positions on Tuesday, it worked |
1169 | 01:56:10 --> 01:56:13 | this area here, and it finally broke down. And I took your attention to the |
1170 | 01:56:13 --> 01:56:17 | fair value gap that started this run and outlined it. I don't want to make more |
1171 | 01:56:17 --> 01:56:24 | of it than than what it was, but I want you to see that even in this I can be |
1172 | 01:56:24 --> 01:56:28 | wrong about my analysis. Initially I wanted to see it go higher, but I can |
1173 | 01:56:28 --> 01:56:34 | also recognize where it's likely to change its gears. There was nothing that |
1174 | 01:56:34 --> 01:56:37 | put me in a long position this morning, nothing that would have put me in |
1175 | 01:56:37 --> 01:56:44 | anything long but real time. I explained how this was turning and then using this |
1176 | 01:56:44 --> 01:56:48 | as a breakaway gap. What makes it a breakaway gap is that we've already have |
1177 | 01:56:48 --> 01:56:53 | enough to set the stage. And this is the inception of the price run this fair |
1178 | 01:56:53 --> 01:57:01 | value gap. The signature was inside of that gap. Look real close, okay, as |
1179 | 01:57:01 --> 01:57:03 | price was meandering around in here, remember I was telling you, I want to |
1180 | 01:57:03 --> 01:57:07 | get an x ray. I want to cut through all this chaff and get to the heart of |
1181 | 01:57:07 --> 01:57:12 | what's really going on, this inefficiency. So the market drops down, |
1182 | 01:57:13 --> 01:57:17 | comes right back up in the body, stops short of the upper quadrant. I'm seeing |
1183 | 01:57:17 --> 01:57:21 | all this stuff with just rough eyeballing and the high and the low, |
1184 | 01:57:21 --> 01:57:25 | that that weight gap. In other words, I'm looking at this candle sticks high. |
1185 | 01:57:25 --> 01:57:32 | This candle sticks open because that volume imbalance is there. This is not |
1186 | 01:57:32 --> 01:57:38 | the proper fair value gap. That's not it. That's why you would get this type |
1187 | 01:57:38 --> 01:57:44 | of distortion. You gotta factor in that volume imbalance. If there's ever a |
1188 | 01:57:44 --> 01:57:49 | volume imbalance inside of what would be viewed as a potential fair value gap, |
1189 | 01:57:50 --> 01:57:54 | there is no there's no separation between the bodies with the first candle |
1190 | 01:57:54 --> 01:57:58 | and the second candle, there is a separation between the bodies on candle |
1191 | 01:57:58 --> 01:58:03 | number three and candle number two can number two's close is lower than the |
1192 | 01:58:03 --> 01:58:06 | open of the next candle here. See that that small separation between these two |
1193 | 01:58:06 --> 01:58:14 | price points here and there. So you have to draw your rectangle up there, which |
1194 | 01:58:14 --> 01:58:18 | is another reason why I'm not supplying demand. Okay, I have very specific price |
1195 | 01:58:18 --> 01:58:23 | levels. You're not going to see that idea disguised as supply and demand |
1196 | 01:58:25 --> 01:58:31 | science. It's it's not in there. It's another repertoire. So the benefit of |
1197 | 01:58:31 --> 01:58:35 | having a real range like that defined in real inefficiency, is that when you do |
1198 | 01:58:35 --> 01:58:40 | quadrants inside of it, you're grading that price range. And if it's bearish. |
1199 | 01:58:41 --> 01:58:45 | We want to see signatures that indicate that bearishness. The bodies are going |
1200 | 01:58:45 --> 01:58:49 | to tell you the story. Watching price when it went up in here, look where the |
1201 | 01:58:49 --> 01:58:54 | close is. It's below the upper quadrant. So is it laying the body down on top of |
1202 | 01:58:54 --> 01:59:00 | the high of that shaded white area? No. This candlestick we open, we wick |
1203 | 01:59:00 --> 01:59:08 | outside of it, and then what move away from it. So we opened below the upper |
1204 | 01:59:08 --> 01:59:13 | quadrant. We allowed and afforded the market to do what create a little Mohawk |
1205 | 01:59:13 --> 01:59:18 | color outside the lines. But what does it do after it does that? Smashes down. |
1206 | 01:59:18 --> 01:59:21 | Wonderful. When this candlestick closed, I said, Okay, I'm now watching this |
1207 | 01:59:21 --> 01:59:26 | video. I got here. Go back and listen to the stream. You'll hear me say, I if |
1208 | 01:59:26 --> 01:59:31 | it's bearish, you want to see it stay outside of the upper half, and then |
1209 | 01:59:31 --> 01:59:35 | boom, it delivers right to the half of it, not a tick more, not one tick more. |
1210 | 01:59:36 --> 01:59:42 | And then lower. And then aggressively moves down to mid gap, which is a strike |
1211 | 01:59:42 --> 01:59:47 | rate of 7% no matter what anybody else tells you, by 10 o'clock, and it hits it |
1212 | 01:59:47 --> 01:59:51 | there, and it trades into the gap I was telling you about earlier that this is, |
1213 | 01:59:51 --> 01:59:56 | this is my interest here. If it goes down, I want to see it go down here. If |
1214 | 01:59:56 --> 01:59:59 | it goes below, it comes back up. Treat it as inversion, fair value gap. Then. |
1215 | 02:00:00 --> 02:00:01 | We look for |
1216 | 02:00:09 --> 02:00:10 | minor cell side and ultimately, |
1217 | 02:00:18 --> 02:00:25 | primary cell side over here, so I've given you a couple of extra minutes, but |
1218 | 02:00:25 --> 02:00:30 | I do very much have to get off of here. I have a personal matter. I take care of |
1219 | 02:00:30 --> 02:00:36 | my wife's been sick, so I gotta clean nurse on top of that. So I didn't intend |
1220 | 02:00:36 --> 02:00:40 | to take a trade today. It's Non Farm Payroll. I hope that I have taught you |
1221 | 02:00:40 --> 02:00:44 | that you can have an analysis, you can have an expectation and still have a |
1222 | 02:00:44 --> 02:00:49 | profitable idea being wrong. I did not take the short. I'm not secretly taking |
1223 | 02:00:49 --> 02:00:54 | a short. I don't have anything to show you as an execution. What I shared today |
1224 | 02:00:54 --> 02:00:58 | was all there is for it. I hopefully have communicated the importance of |
1225 | 02:00:59 --> 02:01:05 | abstaining from this day, learning what they do with liquidity, how they run for |
1226 | 02:01:05 --> 02:01:08 | the inefficiencies in the lay of the land, the points and references that |
1227 | 02:01:08 --> 02:01:13 | I've mentioned, except for all the way up here, that buy side, up here, the |
1228 | 02:01:13 --> 02:01:18 | primary buy side, everything else has been pretty, pretty good for a case |
1229 | 02:01:18 --> 02:01:22 | study today, I would be pleased if I was Someone sitting in and watching what I |
1230 | 02:01:22 --> 02:01:27 | watched today, because it was, it was based on logic, not impulsive, chasing |
1231 | 02:01:27 --> 02:01:32 | price and just the sheer precision elements of it. It's just, it's just |
1232 | 02:01:32 --> 02:01:37 | wonderful. And even during this messy stuff that you would think the job is |
1233 | 02:01:37 --> 02:01:45 | real, the job is real. It's it's not, it's the precision is real. Okay, |
1234 | 02:01:45 --> 02:01:50 | that's, that's the reality of price. It's, it's that, and when price is not |
1235 | 02:01:50 --> 02:01:52 | illustrating that, when we were doing all this back and forth stuff I |
1236 | 02:01:52 --> 02:01:57 | mentioned, okay, are you seeing anything that showing elements of precision? Not |
1237 | 02:01:57 --> 02:02:02 | yet, until we had that. What I just described with the bodies, and then the |
1238 | 02:02:02 --> 02:02:06 | displacement lower, then that fair value got present itself. Boom, everything |
1239 | 02:02:06 --> 02:02:11 | dialed in like an eagle's eye. I trained in on that. I put your attention right |
1240 | 02:02:11 --> 02:02:16 | there, and the market delivered that. Now the trolls won't see that as |
1241 | 02:02:16 --> 02:02:20 | something useful. My question is, do you see that as useful? Do you see that as |
1242 | 02:02:20 --> 02:02:25 | something that is a signature in price action that tends to repeat. You're |
1243 | 02:02:25 --> 02:02:30 | seeing me actually identify it real time, and it frames the price run that |
1244 | 02:02:30 --> 02:02:34 | you see many times after the fact. And you're like, what causes that? How is he |
1245 | 02:02:34 --> 02:02:37 | able to do this? How does he keep getting away with this? It's because of |
1246 | 02:02:37 --> 02:02:42 | the logic I'm teaching you. It's real. There is an algorithm, whether you like |
1247 | 02:02:42 --> 02:02:46 | to believe it or not, and you can take advantage of these things. You can |
1248 | 02:02:46 --> 02:02:51 | exploit them, just like Smart Money does. They're doing that every single |
1249 | 02:02:51 --> 02:02:56 | day. So that's it for this one. Try to get some rest this weekend. I'm |
1250 | 02:02:56 --> 02:03:01 | certainly going to try to do that. I've been up most of tonight, plain nurse. So |
1251 | 02:03:02 --> 02:03:06 | I'm going to try to take care of what I gotta take care of, and if I can manage |
1252 | 02:03:06 --> 02:03:09 | to get a couple hours of sleep this afternoon, I'm gonna do that. Enjoy your |
1253 | 02:03:09 --> 02:03:15 | weekend, and Lord willing, I'll be back at it again next week. Until then, be |
1254 | 02:03:15 --> 02:03:15 | safe. You. |