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2 |1 |00:01:53 ~-~-> 00:01:53 |ICT: Good morning, folks.
3 |2 |00:02:01 ~-~-> 00:02:06 |OBS is challenging me this morning again.
4 |3 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:21 |Okay, if you are a user on X or known as Twitter, and you follow me there, if you
5 |4 |00:02:21 ~-~-> 00:02:24 |give me a five by five, that'll Tell me that you guys can hear me fine.
6 |5 |00:02:42 ~-~-> 00:02:45 |Thank you so much. Thank you for that. Appreciate it.
7 |6 |00:02:50 ~-~-> 00:02:58 |Okay, let's get this going. So I purposely left myself a void of reading
8 |7 |00:02:58 ~-~-> 00:03:04 |any price action on Sunday, if this is my first time, with the exception of
9 |8 |00:03:04 ~-~-> 00:03:08 |just toggling to the weekly chart. So I've only looked at the charts long
10 |9 |00:03:08 ~-~-> 00:03:13 |enough to see the time frame change. I haven't looked at any kind of levels,
11 |10 |00:03:13 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |the the absence of holding a previous week's bias, if, if I could come into a
12 |11 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |live stream like that, I'm trying to accomplish the same thing. I believe
13 |12 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:42 |that Caleb would have so in other words, it's, it's easy for me to spend about
14 |13 |00:03:42 ~-~-> 00:03:48 |2030 minutes in the evening time with the London session, maybe 2030 minutes
15 |14 |00:03:48 ~-~-> 00:03:54 |in the Asian session, when it opened up last night, just getting the weekly
16 |15 |00:03:54 ~-~-> 00:04:00 |opening gap, and then turning the charts off and Just letting overnight take
17 |16 |00:04:01 ~-~-> 00:04:05 |whatever action that it wants to take. And then coming into the morning pre
18 |17 |00:04:05 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |market. Pre market is, I like to trade those days when there's a pal speech,
19 |18 |00:04:14 ~-~-> 00:04:20 |when there's FOMC. I like to trade early in the day, because the the price action
20 |19 |00:04:20 ~-~-> 00:04:25 |tends to be a little bit more cleaner. And what I mean by cleaner, it's a
21 |20 |00:04:25 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |little bit more obvious in terms of what it wants to reach for. It's far less
22 |21 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:33 |likely to be like a seek and destroy or a high resistance liquidity profile,
23 |22 |00:04:33 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |because there's a lot of professionals in the market trying to get in and take
24 |23 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |something early on and let everyone else gamble after or during or ahead of a pal
25 |24 |00:04:43 ~-~-> 00:04:52 |speech. Typically the the days that have the Fed Chair speaking right before he
26 |25 |00:04:52 ~-~-> 00:04:57 |starts or she, when there was a lady, used to be a Fed Chair whenever they
27 |26 |00:04:57 ~-~-> 00:05:03 |would speak. Lee. Up to that the market would tend to be a little bit more
28 |27 |00:05:03 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |fickle, a little bit more challenging, and in my opinion, they were better left
29 |28 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |to the novice traders, someone that just wants to believe they can gamble and get
30 |29 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:18 |lucky. But on days that your Fed chair is speaking and it's in the afternoon,
31 |30 |00:05:18 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |or if it's really early, let's say it's like a 10 o'clock or even a 930 or 915
32 |31 |00:05:24 ~-~-> 00:05:32 |or 945 speech. Anything? Okay, prior to nine o'clock, in my opinion, is pre
33 |32 |00:05:32 ~-~-> 00:05:40 |market, because the opening range is 930 to 10 o'clock during that first 30
34 |33 |00:05:40 ~-~-> 00:05:45 |minutes trading, if there's a Fed Chairman testimony, where they're
35 |34 |00:05:45 ~-~-> 00:05:51 |talking anytime within that nine o'clock to 10 o'clock hour, you want to be
36 |35 |00:05:51 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |trading before eight o'clock in the morning says you want to have that in
37 |36 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:05:59 |your notes. I'll talk more about those things in the book, but I just want to
38 |37 |00:05:59 ~-~-> 00:06:06 |give you a little bit of a like a tip my hand to you get some hints today. If you
39 |38 |00:06:06 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |look at the economic calendar, you'll notice that there is one medium impact
40 |39 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:15 |news event. That's the Chicago PMI number at 945 so that's 15 minutes after
41 |40 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |opening bell. So that's fine. That'll help fuel some of the first 30 minutes
42 |41 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:27 |trading. I'm me, my counsel to my son is because it's a 945 medium impact news
43 |42 |00:06:27 ~-~-> 00:06:33 |driver, he has to sit still and wait until 10 o'clock. So he'll let that news
44 |43 |00:06:33 ~-~-> 00:06:38 |driver come into the marketplace, let traders either get canceled out, stopped
45 |44 |00:06:38 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |out, or get kicked into an idea based on what they see at the 945 news event.
46 |45 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:51 |He's not trying to predict the delivery of price. He's letting that first 15
47 |46 |00:06:51 ~-~-> 00:06:55 |minutes pass. Okay, so that's like the minimum criteria for anything that comes
48 |47 |00:06:55 ~-~-> 00:07:00 |after a high impact or medium that news driver. Wait 15 minutes if you're trying
49 |48 |00:07:00 ~-~-> 00:07:05 |to trade right on the release of that news, and it's under 15 minutes, your
50 |49 |00:07:05 ~-~-> 00:07:10 |chances are you're probably in a rush and you're in a hurry to do something
51 |50 |00:07:10 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |you probably aren't equipped to trade with. There's plenty of other
52 |51 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |opportunities to get in, as you'll see in the rest of mentorship. Before we
53 |52 |00:07:17 ~-~-> 00:07:24 |close it down this year, there's lots of ways to get into a move. So the pre
54 |53 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:29 |market session is anything before nine o'clock in the morning. We have a Fed
55 |54 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |Chairman testimony today, but it's in the afternoon. So you can trade all the
56 |55 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |way up until the opening bell, seven o'clock in the morning starts it and at
57 |56 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:43 |seven o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time. So whatever the local time is in
58 |57 |00:07:43 ~-~-> 00:07:47 |New York, always have your clock set to that, especially your trading view
59 |58 |00:07:47 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |charts, because if you don't have them toggled to New York time, if it's not
60 |59 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:07:56 |toggled there, everything I'm teaching, you're not going to be able to follow
61 |60 |00:07:56 ~-~-> 00:08:03 |correctly. If you're using your local time, it won't work. So sitting down the
62 |61 |00:08:03 ~-~-> 00:08:08 |charts, this is what I do. Okay, this is exactly what I do on Sunday. So I
63 |62 |00:08:08 ~-~-> 00:08:11 |deferred everything that I would normally do, then I'm doing it now. Now,
64 |63 |00:08:11 ~-~-> 00:08:14 |admittedly, I'm doing a little bit late, because I want to come into the live
65 |64 |00:08:14 ~-~-> 00:08:21 |stream knowing next to nothing in terms of a bias. I don't have any kind of
66 |65 |00:08:21 ~-~-> 00:08:25 |preconceived ideas about what I want to see in the charts. I want to see what
67 |66 |00:08:25 ~-~-> 00:08:30 |the chart looks like as I sit down with it. So this basically pantomiming the
68 |67 |00:08:30 ~-~-> 00:08:34 |closest thing I can. I can't forget what I already know, right? But for the sake
69 |68 |00:08:34 ~-~-> 00:08:40 |of presenting it for my son, and also to try to illustrate that, it only takes a
70 |69 |00:08:40 ~-~-> 00:08:44 |few minutes to ascertain what it is that you want to focus on. Focus on, and now
71 |70 |00:08:44 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |we're going to go through it. So this gap up here, we talked about this
72 |71 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:53 |throughout the 2024 mentorship. We talked about the volume imbalance here
73 |72 |00:08:53 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |in the September contract. I told you that was about as far as I could see for
74 |73 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |the year for that contract, it went just a little bit above that. And then when
75 |74 |00:09:00 ~-~-> 00:09:05 |we rolled over if we looked at the on the daily chart. Right now, I'm looking
76 |75 |00:09:05 ~-~-> 00:09:09 |at the weekly, but the Weekly has this imbalance up here, so we've had that
77 |76 |00:09:09 ~-~-> 00:09:17 |trade too, and we have just a few more weeks to get to the US election, and I
78 |77 |00:09:17 ~-~-> 00:09:21 |want to give the market the opportunity to explore lower lower prices, and what
79 |78 |00:09:21 ~-~-> 00:09:24 |would that look like? Well, we already have what would be the start of a
80 |79 |00:09:24 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |potential, I'm not saying that is it could be a potential turning point. So I
81 |80 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:35 |would like to see if we can make an attempt to start breaking down. I don't
82 |81 |00:09:35 ~-~-> 00:09:39 |want to, I don't want to predict or time the the high in the marketplace, but I'm
83 |82 |00:09:39 ~-~-> 00:09:45 |affording myself at least going in, because I'm assuming that it's a Sunday
84 |83 |00:09:46 ~-~-> 00:09:51 |the weekend's past, and now I'm going to look at what I want to try to see in
85 |84 |00:09:51 ~-~-> 00:09:56 |price action, formulate some kind of a game plan. I like the idea of
86 |85 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:10:02 |entertaining the likelihood of trading down into this gap here. This week. So
87 |86 |00:10:02 ~-~-> 00:10:08 |that's this right here. So basically, what I'm doing, I'm giving you a soup to
88 |87 |00:10:08 ~-~-> 00:10:12 |nuts breakdown of what I do on the weekend. Sometimes I'll do it on a
89 |88 |00:10:12 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |Friday, and then I'll have notes about what I expect to see based on a higher
90 |89 |00:10:16 ~-~-> 00:10:22 |opening on Sunday's gap, or a lower opening gap, or a lack of a gap, so I'll
91 |90 |00:10:22 ~-~-> 00:10:27 |flesh out scenarios, and I'll talk more about that in the book, because it's not
92 |91 |00:10:27 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |important right now, I'm giving you actionable points. That's this whole
93 |92 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:34 |week. I'm giving you something to strip it down, remove all of the moving parts
94 |93 |00:10:34 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |and say, Okay, I need something to provide myself a way of determining a
95 |94 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:44 |bias. And then I have to also learn how to frame a narrative why the market
96 |95 |00:10:44 ~-~-> 00:10:49 |should behave a certain way. And then what, what model am I going to use, and
97 |96 |00:10:49 ~-~-> 00:10:53 |what time of day am I going to trade? And how am I going to enter the trade?
98 |97 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |And how will I place my stop loss? How will I take a first partial? When will I
99 |98 |00:10:58 ~-~-> 00:11:02 |move my stop loss? When will I be content? And it trades my terminus, and
100 |99 |00:11:02 ~-~-> 00:11:05 |then I stop trading for that session or that day, and then go back in the next
101 |100 |00:11:05 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |day. That's, that's what we're doing this week. Like, this is boot camp for
102 |101 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:14 |getting out there and using my concept correctly, streamlined. It's not fluffed
103 |102 |00:11:14 ~-~-> 00:11:17 |up with everything you're possibly learning from my YouTube channel. It's
104 |103 |00:11:17 ~-~-> 00:11:21 |literally going in and saying, This is how you make money. This is how you go
105 |104 |00:11:21 ~-~-> 00:11:26 |in and you you look for setups that form every single day you go in, looking for
106 |105 |00:11:26 ~-~-> 00:11:30 |this same repeating recipe. Sometimes it isn't going to give it to you. Sometimes
107 |106 |00:11:30 ~-~-> 00:11:33 |you'll think it's there, you'll execute on it, and you'll lose that's the
108 |107 |00:11:33 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |reality of it. I don't have a model that's 100% I'm not going to teach you
109 |108 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |100% no one else is going to teach you 100% either. So just relax and accept
110 |109 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:46 |the fact that uncertainty is something you need to embrace. But you can start
111 |110 |00:11:46 ~-~-> 00:11:51 |to strip away some of that stuff by fleshing out a model that has sound
112 |111 |00:11:51 ~-~-> 00:11:56 |logic in and what we're looking at is we're up here. We traded to a premium
113 |112 |00:11:56 ~-~-> 00:12:02 |relative to the weekly chart last week, and then now we're in this week's
114 |113 |00:12:02 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |present candlestick. The inefficiency on the weekly chart is this candle right
115 |114 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |here. This week's high, that week's low. This individual candlestick only has buy
116 |115 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:22 |side delivery. That means movement higher, and it would be reasonable To
117 |116 |00:12:22 ~-~-> 00:12:29 |anticipate the market wanting to go and explore. I
118 |117 |00:12:43 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |it's weird,
119 |118 |00:12:50 ~-~-> 00:12:50 |this low,
120 |119 |00:12:56 ~-~-> 00:13:00 |okay, and for annotation purposes, Caleb, what you want to do is when
121 |120 |00:13:00 ~-~-> 00:13:03 |you're annotating on a higher Time Frame chart and time frame chart, anything you
122 |121 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |put on your chart on a higher Time Frame, because you're gonna be working
123 |122 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |on a lower time frames for entries excess management of a trade, you want
124 |123 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |to annotate that. So this is September 23 weekly low. I'm so
125 |124 |00:13:35 ~-~-> 00:13:38 |that when you go into the lower time frame charts, when this line appears
126 |125 |00:13:38 ~-~-> 00:13:42 |over here on the right hand side towards the price axis of the chart. This is
127 |126 |00:13:42 ~-~-> 00:13:45 |your time axis at the bottom. This will always give you your reference point as
128 |127 |00:13:45 ~-~-> 00:13:49 |to what you're looking at. Because if you start laying down lines on your
129 |128 |00:13:49 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |chart and you don't annotate them, you don't tell yourself what they are,
130 |129 |00:13:53 ~-~-> 00:13:56 |they're meaningless. Then they're distractions. So you want to be
131 |130 |00:13:56 ~-~-> 00:14:02 |organized with your annotations. And then obviously, if it makes the effort
132 |131 |00:14:02 ~-~-> 00:14:08 |to get down into this inefficiency. This one here September 9. So the week of
133 |132 |00:14:08 ~-~-> 00:14:12 |September 23 and September 9, respectively shown here.
134 |133 |00:14:20 ~-~-> 00:14:27 |And this is the weekly high for that week. Short, sweet and easy. Now you can
135 |134 |00:14:27 ~-~-> 00:14:31 |go as far as going into adding the consequent encroachment of that, and
136 |135 |00:14:31 ~-~-> 00:14:38 |I'll do it now just to show you, Caleb, take the low of it and the high
137 |136 |00:14:41 ~-~-> 00:14:47 |and the midpoint take the quadrants off.
138 |137 |00:14:49 ~-~-> 00:14:52 |So 883, and quarter and.
139 |138 |00:15:06 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |883, and a quarter. 883, and a quarter, okay, and
140 |139 |00:15:20 ~-~-> 00:15:24 |just anchor inside that candle there you can label it. You
141 |140 |00:15:48 ~-~-> 00:15:49 |There it is, okay.
142 |141 |00:15:51 ~-~-> 00:15:57 |This wick here, you can annotate that with consequent crochet as well. And
143 |142 |00:15:57 ~-~-> 00:16:02 |this one, we're going to leave that off today, but you can do that for your own
144 |143 |00:16:02 ~-~-> 00:16:10 |charts and then the daily chart. So now start refining a little bit more. We
145 |144 |00:16:10 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |have this little gap in here of volume imbalance here and volume imbalance
146 |145 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |there. Whenever there's consecutive volume imbalances, if it's just one
147 |146 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:23 |single candle like that, just do the entire range. It makes it very easy.
148 |147 |00:16:23 ~-~-> 00:16:26 |You'll you'll see the inefficiencies just the same as you would if you've
149 |148 |00:16:26 ~-~-> 00:16:29 |just done them individually. So what that looks like is this,
150 |149 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:41 |and since it's a premium array, you want to have some kind of a hue or color that
151 |150 |00:16:41 ~-~-> 00:16:46 |helps you, not too much. That's enough for me to notice it. You can do whatever
152 |151 |00:16:46 ~-~-> 00:16:49 |you want to do on your charts, but I'm just giving you the idea how I'm going
153 |152 |00:16:49 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |to be able to refer to it. I don't keep this stuff on my chart. As you can see
154 |153 |00:16:53 ~-~-> 00:16:58 |when I put it on there, it's very distracting and disorienting. Sometimes
155 |154 |00:16:58 ~-~-> 00:17:02 |I know what I'm looking at just by the candlestick, and it's actually harder
156 |155 |00:17:02 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |for me to teach it and describe it real time than it is to just simply do it so
157 |156 |00:17:06 ~-~-> 00:17:10 |and you'll you'll know what that means when you start getting better at it. But
158 |157 |00:17:10 ~-~-> 00:17:14 |we have that volume imbalance here that is two consecutive volume balances, but
159 |158 |00:17:14 ~-~-> 00:17:18 |only separated. But one candlestick, usually you only see something like like
160 |159 |00:17:18 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |this candles, body to that candle stick body, and that's a volume imbalance. But
161 |160 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:26 |there's one immediately to the to the left of that too. So just to encompass
162 |161 |00:17:26 ~-~-> 00:17:29 |the entire range there, it's fine, because this is actually an indecisive
163 |162 |00:17:29 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |candle. It is basically all but not it's not that important. The more important
164 |163 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:43 |factor is this in this Okay, so just, just disregard this one. Trust me in
165 |164 |00:17:43 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |that. Okay, you'll see what it means when we start looking at lower prices.
166 |165 |00:17:47 ~-~-> 00:17:53 |All right. So now you should already notice that there is two lows down here
167 |166 |00:17:54 ~-~-> 00:17:58 |that are real close to one another, right? So when we drop down to I'm going
168 |167 |00:17:58 ~-~-> 00:18:02 |to skip entirely over a four hour chart, because it's not necessary. If I was
169 |168 |00:18:02 ~-~-> 00:18:07 |swing trading, or if I was trading for like, the entirety of the weekly range,
170 |169 |00:18:07 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |I would drop down to the four hour and do this same type of thing, looking for
171 |170 |00:18:10 ~-~-> 00:18:15 |a specific PD arrays, things that would be impactful for me. Because I'm not
172 |171 |00:18:15 ~-~-> 00:18:20 |trying to swing trade. I'm not trying to do anything except for session trade, or
173 |172 |00:18:20 ~-~-> 00:18:24 |at the very most, very, most, very nice. That's not That's not appropriate. At
174 |173 |00:18:24 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |the very least, I'm trying to do just a session trade or scalp, but up to the
175 |174 |00:18:31 ~-~-> 00:18:35 |daily range, and that can be afforded to you by simply looking at the hourly
176 |175 |00:18:35 ~-~-> 00:18:37 |chart. So we're gonna do a 60 minute chart.
177 |176 |00:18:42 ~-~-> 00:18:45 |Now I'm okay,
178 |177 |00:18:46 ~-~-> 00:18:52 |and see this big wick right here? This is a level I'm literally teaching you
179 |178 |00:18:52 ~-~-> 00:18:55 |right now. This is what I write on my notepad. You guys keep asking. Keep
180 |179 |00:18:55 ~-~-> 00:19:00 |asking. Keep asking. I go through the charts and I write down all the things
181 |180 |00:19:00 ~-~-> 00:19:05 |that I'm doing right here, any wicks that are at lows or highs or in close
182 |181 |00:19:05 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |proximity the market price. I annotate those consequent encroachment levels.
183 |182 |00:19:12 ~-~-> 00:19:16 |And if it's something that's a discount like this would be here relative to
184 |183 |00:19:16 ~-~-> 00:19:20 |where we're at here. This is where the market price is right now, 20,001 52,
185 |184 |00:19:20 ~-~-> 00:19:23 |and a half, let me add the
186 |185 |00:19:38 ~-~-> 00:19:46 |It bothers me when I don't see that thing, the this wick is lower than
187 |186 |00:19:46 ~-~-> 00:19:51 |current market price. So that means that this is a discount wick, whereas
188 |187 |00:19:51 ~-~-> 00:19:55 |something like, like this wick would be a premium wick, because it's above
189 |188 |00:19:55 ~-~-> 00:20:00 |current market price. Okay, if you're not looking at price. Some relative
190 |189 |00:20:00 ~-~-> 00:20:05 |terms, to premium, to discount, you're absolutely doing it wrong. Okay? You're
191 |190 |00:20:05 ~-~-> 00:20:09 |absolutely, I don't care what, young man This makes a YouTube video. It says you
192 |191 |00:20:09 ~-~-> 00:20:14 |don't need this. You don't need that every every single high probability
193 |192 |00:20:14 ~-~-> 00:20:19 |short is always entered, whether you use my stuff or not, if it's worked, it's
194 |193 |00:20:19 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |because it was in a premium, and it's moved to a discount. Every single 100%
195 |194 |00:20:24 ~-~-> 00:20:30 |strike rate. Every single time a long trade that was profitable in your hands
196 |195 |00:20:30 ~-~-> 00:20:34 |or anyone else's hands, was because it left a discount and traded to a premium,
197 |196 |00:20:34 ~-~-> 00:20:38 |absolutely 100% it never misses. It's just like a partial profit. It never
198 |197 |00:20:38 ~-~-> 00:20:43 |misses. It never loses. It's 100% strike rate. So for anyone that's telling you,
199 |198 |00:20:43 ~-~-> 00:20:47 |don't worry about looking at premium the discount, they're a fucking clown, and
200 |199 |00:20:47 ~-~-> 00:20:50 |stop watching them, because they literally are trying to reinvent
201 |200 |00:20:50 ~-~-> 00:20:53 |something, and they're taking your way, picking your eyesight away from the
202 |201 |00:20:53 ~-~-> 00:20:57 |things that matter most. If you can't frame the basis of your short that it's
203 |202 |00:20:57 ~-~-> 00:21:03 |inside of a premium, you're hopeless. If you can't frame your long on the basis
204 |203 |00:21:03 ~-~-> 00:21:07 |of a discount, you're hopeless. You're literally asking to lose money. You're
205 |204 |00:21:07 ~-~-> 00:21:10 |literally you might as well just go outside find the first person you see
206 |205 |00:21:10 ~-~-> 00:21:14 |and just give them your money. It's more charitable than you just going out there
207 |206 |00:21:14 ~-~-> 00:21:17 |and giving it to people that know better and you don't Okay. So I mean that
208 |207 |00:21:17 ~-~-> 00:21:27 |entirely. So this is another level. Here I'm writing I'm writing them down as we
209 |208 |00:21:27 ~-~-> 00:21:29 |go so the to this level here,
210 |209 |00:21:42 ~-~-> 00:21:47 |okay? So that's consequent encroachment there, and this will be annotated as an
211 |210 |00:21:47 ~-~-> 00:21:48 |hourly.
212 |211 |00:21:53 ~-~-> 00:21:59 |I abbreviate. I just put like a 60 M CE, and it's because it's lower. I put a
213 |212 |00:21:59 ~-~-> 00:22:06 |little tiny D next to it, so it tells me it's a discount. So 60 minute discount,
214 |213 |00:22:08 ~-~-> 00:22:14 |WIC, C, B, that's your definition, so we understand what it is. But I just told
215 |214 |00:22:14 ~-~-> 00:22:22 |you how I write on my my new path, and There it is. So
216 |215 |00:22:35 ~-~-> 00:22:36 |double up. Didn't know how to
217 |216 |00:22:46 ~-~-> 00:22:47 |I see these flaring.
218 |217 |00:23:02 ~-~-> 00:23:05 |I Okay.
219 |218 |00:23:07 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |Now I go through the daily chart, I like the idea that we cleared this high here.
220 |219 |00:23:13 ~-~-> 00:23:16 |I like the idea that we went into this inefficiency here. This is sell side and
221 |220 |00:23:16 ~-~-> 00:23:20 |balance by sign efficiency. I love the fact that we traded back up to change
222 |221 |00:23:20 ~-~-> 00:23:23 |the state of delivery, which is my order block theory, and it's the opening price
223 |222 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:29 |of the up close candle right here. So that is a really nice delivery there.
224 |223 |00:23:32 ~-~-> 00:23:36 |And I don't know why my every time I'm drawing these trend lines, it's shooting
225 |224 |00:23:36 ~-~-> 00:23:45 |to the left. I have no idea why it's doing that. I yeah, I don't know what's
226 |225 |00:23:45 ~-~-> 00:23:51 |going on there. It's weird. Let me know in in Twitter, training, views, acting
227 |226 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:23:55 |Milwaukee for you. But I don't want to do a ray, because this is going to drive
228 |227 |00:23:55 ~-~-> 00:24:00 |me nuts. It's not important. But that opening price there in this high that
229 |228 |00:24:00 ~-~-> 00:24:07 |being together is that's nice. What I want to see, admittedly already, is I
230 |229 |00:24:07 ~-~-> 00:24:15 |want to see price try to go lower this morning. Okay, so my bias is bearish. I
231 |230 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:20 |want to see something that I can frame as a narrative now to go lower. So what
232 |231 |00:24:20 ~-~-> 00:24:24 |would that be? Well, we already noticed on daily chart, there was some relative
233 |232 |00:24:24 ~-~-> 00:24:27 |equal loads that I spotted. But can we see them on the lower time frames where
234 |233 |00:24:27 ~-~-> 00:24:32 |it makes sense? So we can drop down from the hourly chart now to a 15 minute time
235 |234 |00:24:32 ~-~-> 00:24:35 |frame. Now, obviously it's taking me more time talking and teaching you why
236 |235 |00:24:35 ~-~-> 00:24:39 |I'm doing what I'm doing than actually just doing it. So it literally takes a
237 |236 |00:24:39 ~-~-> 00:24:42 |few minutes to go through the time frames. Break them down, look for the
238 |237 |00:24:42 ~-~-> 00:24:45 |levels, and there it is. It's the obvious things that you're looking for.
239 |238 |00:24:45 ~-~-> 00:24:49 |If it's not obvious, you're probably straining to make it work. Okay. If it
240 |239 |00:24:49 ~-~-> 00:24:52 |doesn't jump off of the chart at you, chances are you're probably making more
241 |240 |00:24:52 ~-~-> 00:24:56 |of it than it really is. And I mean that you'll see in your own experience that
242 |241 |00:24:57 ~-~-> 00:25:00 |the more you try to push and push and push like a five. Nine tooth comb, go
243 |242 |00:25:00 ~-~-> 00:25:04 |through everything. You don't need to do that, especially on these higher Time
244 |243 |00:25:04 ~-~-> 00:25:09 |Frame charts. Like, one hour for me is it's a it's a higher Time Frame. Like,
245 |244 |00:25:09 ~-~-> 00:25:12 |there's a lot of stuff going on. Every one of these individual candlesticks on
246 |245 |00:25:12 ~-~-> 00:25:16 |the 15 second chart, and every one of these individual one hour charts is like
247 |246 |00:25:16 ~-~-> 00:25:22 |a daily range. For me, I can trade a 15 and five second chart and run circles
248 |247 |00:25:22 ~-~-> 00:25:25 |around most everything else out there and just trade inside one of these one
249 |248 |00:25:25 ~-~-> 00:25:30 |hour candles. And how many candles do you have in a daily session? So you can
250 |249 |00:25:30 ~-~-> 00:25:34 |see how fast velocity kicks in. So while it's not important for you to be able to
251 |250 |00:25:34 ~-~-> 00:25:37 |do that yet, Caleb, but you will, if you stick with it and you want to do that,
252 |251 |00:25:37 ~-~-> 00:25:40 |dad will absolutely love teaching that to you, but you have to start like here
253 |252 |00:25:40 ~-~-> 00:25:46 |first. So we'll drop down to an hourly chart, to a 15 minute time frame. And
254 |253 |00:25:46 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |here's the business from here's Friday and then Sunday. So the only thing I did
255 |254 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:25:57 |last night at six o'clock was annotate the weekly opening gap, and then I turn
256 |255 |00:25:57 ~-~-> 00:26:01 |the charts off. So this is the first time I'm I've seen a 15 minute time
257 |256 |00:26:01 ~-~-> 00:26:14 |frame, and looking at the the lows here, notice how that low has that lower low
258 |257 |00:26:14 ~-~-> 00:26:20 |to the right of it, and then this low has that low lower than the one here,
259 |258 |00:26:20 ~-~-> 00:26:24 |and This low has the lower low here to the right of it, and now this low has
260 |259 |00:26:24 ~-~-> 00:26:30 |been breached by this so we don't see any kind of relative equal lows here. We
261 |260 |00:26:30 ~-~-> 00:26:34 |see what the market keep probing lower, keep probing lower, keep probing lower.
262 |261 |00:26:35 ~-~-> 00:26:38 |Remember what we have later in the afternoon that Fed chair, pal speaking,
263 |262 |00:26:39 ~-~-> 00:26:43 |we have a little bit of likely volatility coming in, and then what
264 |263 |00:26:43 ~-~-> 00:26:49 |we'll have is what some kind of Judas swing right between 945 and 10 o'clock
265 |264 |00:26:49 ~-~-> 00:26:54 |in the morning. I am anticipating in my mind. I'm thinking, okay, without that
266 |265 |00:26:54 ~-~-> 00:27:00 |945 news driver, the Chicago PMI news report. That's what that that's what I'm
267 |266 |00:27:00 ~-~-> 00:27:03 |referring to. So if you look at your economic calendar, you can see, you can
268 |267 |00:27:03 ~-~-> 00:27:06 |see that on forex factory.com that's when I used a lot, when I was teaching,
269 |268 |00:27:06 ~-~-> 00:27:10 |predominantly just the forex market. And everything I'm doing here is what you do
270 |269 |00:27:10 ~-~-> 00:27:14 |in forex, too, folks. I know you guys are barking and saying, Please do Forex.
271 |270 |00:27:14 ~-~-> 00:27:16 |Please do Forex. It's the same thing. Everything I'm doing here is the same
272 |271 |00:27:16 ~-~-> 00:27:19 |thing you're going to do in your forex pairs and with the dollar index. The
273 |272 |00:27:19 ~-~-> 00:27:23 |only thing is, with Forex, you got to go one step further and do it on the dollar
274 |273 |00:27:23 ~-~-> 00:27:26 |index too. So everything should be mirror anything you see in the dollar
275 |274 |00:27:26 ~-~-> 00:27:31 |index. You should see the opposite in your POUND DOLLAR or your Euro dollar,
276 |275 |00:27:31 ~-~-> 00:27:38 |or your dollar yen or whatever, whatever pair you're trading. You have to at
277 |276 |00:27:38 ~-~-> 00:27:42 |least refer to the dollar index to get a full panoramic view. If you're trading
278 |277 |00:27:42 ~-~-> 00:27:46 |Forex in futures, we don't have to worry about that. Notice I have anything wrong
279 |278 |00:27:46 ~-~-> 00:27:53 |in very rarely even referred to the SM, SMT studies. I think I probably pulled
280 |279 |00:27:53 ~-~-> 00:27:57 |up maybe two or three times the entirety of this mentorship in 2024 because I
281 |280 |00:27:57 ~-~-> 00:28:02 |need my son to look at the very minimum things initially. If I throw everything
282 |281 |00:28:02 ~-~-> 00:28:07 |at him, like you all try to do, why? By watching my YouTube videos, you inundate
283 |282 |00:28:07 ~-~-> 00:28:10 |yourself, and it causes analysis paralysis. And then you get the guys
284 |283 |00:28:10 ~-~-> 00:28:13 |that are not really trying to learn. They want something to sample real quick
285 |284 |00:28:13 ~-~-> 00:28:17 |and go make courses, mentorships and write books so they don't know what to
286 |285 |00:28:17 ~-~-> 00:28:21 |pick correctly. So they just say, Screw it. It's too much. It's complication.
287 |286 |00:28:21 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |It's over complicated. It's not over complicated, as I'm teaching you this
288 |287 |00:28:24 ~-~-> 00:28:27 |week. It's literally the simplest thing you could ever have in terms of trading
289 |288 |00:28:27 ~-~-> 00:28:36 |with real information that helps you see the market before it happens. But all
290 |289 |00:28:36 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |I'm doing is just using one chart, one market, the NASDAQ, keeping your focus
291 |290 |00:28:43 ~-~-> 00:28:47 |on one instrument. You have to start this way. If you haven't noticed charter
292 |291 |00:28:47 ~-~-> 00:28:53 |members, this is exactly what I told all of you to do in 2016 and every time we
293 |292 |00:28:53 ~-~-> 00:28:57 |had brought in a new group, I would start off the same way. You have to
294 |293 |00:28:57 ~-~-> 00:29:01 |start with one instrument. One instrument. Do not have a list of things
295 |294 |00:29:01 ~-~-> 00:29:05 |just one. And if it's Forex that you're trading, you have to have a correlated
296 |295 |00:29:05 ~-~-> 00:29:11 |market, or, I'm sorry, in forex, you have to have an inverse correlated
297 |296 |00:29:11 ~-~-> 00:29:15 |market, like the dollar. So when you're trading futures, it's so much easier,
298 |297 |00:29:15 ~-~-> 00:29:20 |because you just simply need one instrument. I don't need SMT to trade
299 |298 |00:29:20 ~-~-> 00:29:24 |profitably. I don't need that. You don't need it. It's just one of those things
300 |299 |00:29:24 ~-~-> 00:29:27 |that help me decide if I want to take the largest leverage on the trade or
301 |300 |00:29:27 ~-~-> 00:29:33 |not. In the beginning, it helped me qualify a trade like if I see because
302 |301 |00:29:33 ~-~-> 00:29:38 |shorting was scary to me, so I wanted to have something behind that idea that,
303 |302 |00:29:38 ~-~-> 00:29:43 |okay, it's over. It's, it's, it's showing a bearish divergence in this the
304 |303 |00:29:43 ~-~-> 00:29:46 |cast. That's what I was doing back then in the 90s. I started with indicators
305 |304 |00:29:47 ~-~-> 00:29:50 |too, but I didn't trust it entirely. And the reason why I didn't trust it because
306 |305 |00:29:50 ~-~-> 00:29:56 |I would lose a lot, so I knew I had to go through that process of getting to
307 |306 |00:29:56 ~-~-> 00:30:01 |the point where I could make money and be successful doing it. Even if it's far
308 |307 |00:30:01 ~-~-> 00:30:05 |and few between, I had to keep doing what I was doing to find that initial
309 |308 |00:30:05 ~-~-> 00:30:09 |success, and I wanted a little bit more confidence by having something behind
310 |309 |00:30:09 ~-~-> 00:30:13 |the scenes, giving me a little bit more courage, because I was lacking a lot of
311 |310 |00:30:13 ~-~-> 00:30:21 |that in the 90s. I know it's hard to believe, but the by looking at currency
312 |311 |00:30:21 ~-~-> 00:30:27 |futures. I was using the Deutsche Mark, comparing their highs against the
313 |312 |00:30:27 ~-~-> 00:30:34 |British pound, against the highs of the Japanese yen, against the highs of any
314 |313 |00:30:34 ~-~-> 00:30:37 |other currency, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar. And I would go
315 |314 |00:30:37 ~-~-> 00:30:40 |through and I would find the one that was failing to make a higher high and
316 |315 |00:30:40 ~-~-> 00:30:44 |the one that was making a higher high, I wouldn't short those because they were
317 |316 |00:30:44 ~-~-> 00:30:47 |telling me they wanted to go higher anyway, so they're probably not going to
318 |317 |00:30:47 ~-~-> 00:30:51 |drop as much. So I used the idea that I got from Larry Williams. And this is
319 |318 |00:30:51 ~-~-> 00:30:54 |I've already asked, by the way. I just want to interject this. I've asked for
320 |319 |00:30:54 ~-~-> 00:30:58 |years for people come out here and say that my concepts have been rebranded
321 |320 |00:30:58 ~-~-> 00:31:01 |from somewhere else, and they they'll say Larry Williams, I have been open
322 |321 |00:31:01 ~-~-> 00:31:05 |about what I have adopted from Larry Williams, and I've given credit every
323 |322 |00:31:05 ~-~-> 00:31:08 |single time there has been something I've learned from him. I told all of you
324 |323 |00:31:08 ~-~-> 00:31:11 |to buy everything he has. I mean, he's a legend in the industry, like he is a
325 |324 |00:31:11 ~-~-> 00:31:18 |real legend. Okay, I'm not a legend. I'm not some superstar. I'm just an average
326 |325 |00:31:18 ~-~-> 00:31:22 |guy, and I've been blessed. But I am going to do the very thing that
327 |326 |00:31:22 ~-~-> 00:31:25 |everybody's been barking about, pointing to this, and point to that. I'm going to
328 |327 |00:31:25 ~-~-> 00:31:28 |go through every bunch of bullshit that people say I rebranded. I'm going to go
329 |328 |00:31:28 ~-~-> 00:31:31 |into the books. I'm going to go into the page numbers. I'm going to do a
330 |329 |00:31:31 ~-~-> 00:31:35 |documentary on my own stuff and show you that my stuff is not in Wyckoff. It is
331 |330 |00:31:35 ~-~-> 00:31:39 |not in supply and demand. It is not in any of this other stuff. I'm going to
332 |331 |00:31:39 ~-~-> 00:31:42 |take you into the books. Okay, we're gonna prove this shit once and for all.
333 |332 |00:31:42 ~-~-> 00:31:46 |I have no problem doing over the holidays, January, 1, New Year's Eve,
334 |333 |00:31:46 ~-~-> 00:31:49 |there'll be a documentary where I'm showing you that everything you've heard
335 |334 |00:31:49 ~-~-> 00:31:52 |from all these people are is absolutely utter bullshit. Okay? But you also get
336 |335 |00:31:52 ~-~-> 00:31:55 |to see me credit the people that were influences to me, but you'll see that
337 |336 |00:31:55 ~-~-> 00:32:01 |there's absolutely no footprint at all in what I'm doing today. I was
338 |337 |00:32:01 ~-~-> 00:32:06 |influenced by certain individuals, but they themselves have no hand in what it
339 |338 |00:32:06 ~-~-> 00:32:12 |is I'm doing. Like, for instance, Linda brash, I couldn't understand stop rates.
340 |339 |00:32:13 ~-~-> 00:32:17 |Like, I that's I just didn't understand that. And that book street smarts, it
341 |340 |00:32:17 ~-~-> 00:32:20 |was such a simple little approach to teaching it. I was like, Oh, wow, I
342 |341 |00:32:20 ~-~-> 00:32:22 |understand that. That's what's been happening to me.
343 |342 |00:32:24 ~-~-> 00:32:29 |Then I was like, Okay, well, if she's teaching that, you can go against that
344 |343 |00:32:29 ~-~-> 00:32:32 |idea. I never thought about cannibalizing another trader. I was just
345 |344 |00:32:32 ~-~-> 00:32:35 |trying to think, hope I'm right, like a lottery ticket, like I hope I'm right,
346 |345 |00:32:35 ~-~-> 00:32:38 |not thinking about the other person on the other side of my trade. That that
347 |346 |00:32:38 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |was the epiphany from that book. That's what I took away from it. Not that I
348 |347 |00:32:43 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |trade 21 day highs or 20 day highs or lows. You don't see me mentioning any of
349 |348 |00:32:47 ~-~-> 00:32:52 |that. I'm looking at how many, how many candlesticks is this? Candlesticks high
350 |349 |00:32:52 ~-~-> 00:32:58 |from this one? It's not 20 that's not 20 candles. But that's what that book
351 |350 |00:32:58 ~-~-> 00:33:02 |teaches. Find the highest high in the last 20 days, or whatever time frame
352 |351 |00:33:02 ~-~-> 00:33:07 |you're using, but they teach day and for the lowest low in the last 20 days. And
353 |352 |00:33:07 ~-~-> 00:33:12 |if it goes below that, Turtle suit would buy the break below the old low, or
354 |353 |00:33:12 ~-~-> 00:33:16 |turtle suit would sell short above the old high in the last 20 days. The
355 |354 |00:33:16 ~-~-> 00:33:20 |highest high, if it goes above that, that pattern that's taught in that book
356 |355 |00:33:20 ~-~-> 00:33:24 |is a fading of that move because the turtles Richard Dennis taught these
357 |356 |00:33:24 ~-~-> 00:33:28 |individuals off the street how to use a breakout system. It was a long term
358 |357 |00:33:28 ~-~-> 00:33:34 |trend filing model, and it had a very, very low success rate, but the times
359 |358 |00:33:34 ~-~-> 00:33:38 |that was correct, it would capture these huge long term trends, and it would pay
360 |359 |00:33:38 ~-~-> 00:33:43 |off all the numerous losses that it would accrue. Well, I don't want to
361 |360 |00:33:43 ~-~-> 00:33:48 |trade with something like that. So her idea, and Larry Connor's idea was by
362 |361 |00:33:48 ~-~-> 00:33:53 |presenting that that pattern, by capitalizing on the low strike rate and
363 |362 |00:33:53 ~-~-> 00:33:58 |success of their model. And they call themselves the turtles. And I love the
364 |363 |00:33:58 ~-~-> 00:34:02 |name. It's fun. It's like a pun against it. They're, they're souped. They're,
365 |364 |00:34:02 ~-~-> 00:34:06 |they're, they're, they end up in the soup, turtle soup. So it's a false
366 |365 |00:34:06 ~-~-> 00:34:09 |breakout pattern that capitalized on the low strike rate of Richard Dennis's
367 |366 |00:34:10 ~-~-> 00:34:13 |approach to teaching people long term trend following models and the turtles
368 |367 |00:34:13 ~-~-> 00:34:16 |were able to make hundreds of millions of dollars. They were they were managing
369 |368 |00:34:16 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |hundreds of millions of dollars. So you don't need to be successful in terms of
370 |369 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:27 |a high strike rate. But to me, as a man, I wasn't impressed by that. So it taught
371 |370 |00:34:27 ~-~-> 00:34:32 |me. It taught me how to look at stop hunts and how I can engage that on
372 |371 |00:34:32 ~-~-> 00:34:37 |smaller time frames and be a short term surgical striker. Go in day trade just
373 |372 |00:34:37 ~-~-> 00:34:42 |like that. And that's that was the beginning foundation of my intraday
374 |373 |00:34:42 ~-~-> 00:34:47 |model of looking for stops. Now that is not in street smarts, but the idea of
375 |374 |00:34:48 ~-~-> 00:34:50 |getting stopped out and being on the wrong side of the marketplace. That's
376 |375 |00:34:50 ~-~-> 00:34:53 |how I understood it, because I couldn't understand by anything what Larry
377 |376 |00:34:53 ~-~-> 00:34:56 |Williams was teaching, and I'm sure, going back through it, I can point to,
378 |377 |00:34:56 ~-~-> 00:34:59 |yeah, there's where he did it, but I didn't understand it then I was 20.
379 |378 |00:35:00 ~-~-> 00:35:03 |Years old. I was in a rush to get out of job. I was doing all those same things
380 |379 |00:35:03 ~-~-> 00:35:06 |you're going through, and you hear me say certain things in videos because
381 |380 |00:35:06 ~-~-> 00:35:09 |you're rushing through. You've been working, you're you're on the weekend,
382 |381 |00:35:09 ~-~-> 00:35:12 |trying to cram as many days you can because you want to pass a funded
383 |382 |00:35:12 ~-~-> 00:35:15 |account challenge and get paid out. You go back and watch the same video from
384 |383 |00:35:15 ~-~-> 00:35:18 |me, and you're like, damn it. He must have made an update where he had this
385 |384 |00:35:18 ~-~-> 00:35:21 |video, because I didn't hear it the first time. And you can watch the same
386 |385 |00:35:21 ~-~-> 00:35:25 |video and hear something new, because there's a lot of information being
387 |386 |00:35:25 ~-~-> 00:35:29 |presented. Well, I had lots of books, and I would go through them quicker than
388 |387 |00:35:29 ~-~-> 00:35:33 |I should have, because it was like a kid in a candy store. And all of this means
389 |388 |00:35:33 ~-~-> 00:35:36 |something, folks, for the teacher, like, don't get on with it. I'm getting on
390 |389 |00:35:36 ~-~-> 00:35:41 |with it. The point is, when I'm teaching, you're going to gravitate to
391 |390 |00:35:41 ~-~-> 00:35:45 |certain things and have more emphasis placed on them, and you're not going to
392 |391 |00:35:45 ~-~-> 00:35:49 |have the emphasis placed on the things that you should have. And you won't
393 |392 |00:35:49 ~-~-> 00:35:53 |determine that or figure that out until afterwards, you're going to go back,
394 |393 |00:35:53 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |because you have more experience, and you go through the information again,
395 |394 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:03 |say, Oh, wow, I can see how that fits now. And that's what mentoring is. You
396 |395 |00:36:03 ~-~-> 00:36:07 |don't learn it one time in a five minute video. There's no way for me to condense
397 |396 |00:36:07 ~-~-> 00:36:11 |this, I promise you. You have to go through it modularly, step by step, and
398 |397 |00:36:11 ~-~-> 00:36:16 |expose yourself to it every single trading day and on the weekends, at
399 |398 |00:36:16 ~-~-> 00:36:20 |least one day. On the weekend, spend an hour 90 minutes to it and just study,
400 |399 |00:36:20 ~-~-> 00:36:25 |and you got to keep a balanced life. But anyway, we're in the outside the 15
401 |400 |00:36:25 ~-~-> 00:36:33 |minute time frame. But the we get into a 15 minute time frame, this is when if I
402 |401 |00:36:33 ~-~-> 00:36:37 |am going to start looking at SMT, if I'm ever going to consider doing it, I'm
403 |402 |00:36:37 ~-~-> 00:36:42 |going to look at that. Because the 15 minute time frame for Caleb and for a 15
404 |403 |00:36:42 ~-~-> 00:36:47 |minute time frame for myself, it's a bellwether time frame, meaning that I'm
405 |404 |00:36:47 ~-~-> 00:36:52 |going to lean on a lot of information that this time frame gives me, because I
406 |405 |00:36:52 ~-~-> 00:36:58 |can see 60 minute highs on a 15 minute chart. I can see a four hour high or
407 |406 |00:36:58 ~-~-> 00:37:02 |four hour low on a 15 minute time frame. I don't need those 60 minute charts. I
408 |407 |00:37:02 ~-~-> 00:37:04 |don't need those four hour charts. I don't need a two hour chart. I don't
409 |408 |00:37:04 ~-~-> 00:37:07 |need a three hour chart. I don't need a daily chart. I don't need a weekly
410 |409 |00:37:07 ~-~-> 00:37:11 |chart. I can open up just look at a 15 minute time frame, and I have everything
411 |410 |00:37:11 ~-~-> 00:37:15 |I need to be a day trader, everything. Because as I'm going to teach you this
412 |411 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:18 |week, I'm going to teach you a little exercise, how you can practice every
413 |412 |00:37:18 ~-~-> 00:37:22 |single day, and I call it volatility pinball, where you're going to be buying
414 |413 |00:37:22 ~-~-> 00:37:25 |and selling up and down, up and down all day long. And that's how I used I just
415 |414 |00:37:25 ~-~-> 00:37:30 |recently did the exercise with my private mentorship, where I'm buying and
416 |415 |00:37:30 ~-~-> 00:37:34 |selling in the same day in the same session, and I'm trying to communicate
417 |416 |00:37:34 ~-~-> 00:37:37 |how you desensitize yourself. Because many of you are probably like I was. I
418 |417 |00:37:37 ~-~-> 00:37:41 |was scared to get into a trade. I was scared. I was afraid that I was going to
419 |418 |00:37:41 ~-~-> 00:37:45 |have another losing trade. I was afraid that I wasn't going to get the right
420 |419 |00:37:45 ~-~-> 00:37:49 |entry point. I was afraid if I put my stop loss in, it'd be, it would be hit,
421 |420 |00:37:49 ~-~-> 00:37:53 |no matter where it was, because I had losing trades. In my mind, I imagined
422 |421 |00:37:53 ~-~-> 00:37:56 |that if I got short, like, say, for instance, saying, hypothetically, say, I
423 |422 |00:37:56 ~-~-> 00:38:02 |got short now, and if I wanted to believe that the stop loss placed above
424 |423 |00:38:02 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |this high would be my initial idea. I would think, no, I gotta go higher than
425 |424 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:12 |that. So where would I go? All right, I'll put it over here, but as soon as I
426 |425 |00:38:12 ~-~-> 00:38:16 |put the trade on, I'm expecting some wild wick to come all the way up here.
427 |426 |00:38:16 ~-~-> 00:38:21 |You ever had that experience? Send me a tweet, and you can put emojis on it if
428 |427 |00:38:21 ~-~-> 00:38:24 |you want, but tell me if that's ever happened to you when you when you've had
429 |428 |00:38:24 ~-~-> 00:38:29 |a losing trade or a series of losing trades. It's, I don't know what happened
430 |429 |00:38:29 ~-~-> 00:38:35 |in my mind, as a 20 year old, I expected some kind of just wild, immediate run up
431 |430 |00:38:35 ~-~-> 00:38:39 |right to my stop it's it almost like conditions you to expect, no matter
432 |431 |00:38:39 ~-~-> 00:38:42 |where you put your stop loss, it's going to reach for you and get you. That's
433 |432 |00:38:42 ~-~-> 00:38:46 |what I was that's that's exactly what I was suffering from when I was trying to
434 |433 |00:38:46 ~-~-> 00:38:51 |teach myself how to spell sell short, I could buy. And I never had that problem,
435 |434 |00:38:52 ~-~-> 00:38:55 |like I wasn't afraid that that wild, weird wick would drop down real quick
436 |435 |00:38:55 ~-~-> 00:38:58 |and get my stop. I never had that experience. But when I was trying to
437 |436 |00:38:58 ~-~-> 00:39:02 |teach myself how to trust being short or be a short seller, because I've never
438 |437 |00:39:02 ~-~-> 00:39:07 |done it before. Every single time I put a short on, I was afraid that it was
439 |438 |00:39:07 ~-~-> 00:39:11 |going to create this really big, open, high, lows, closed bar, because that's
440 |439 |00:39:11 ~-~-> 00:39:14 |what I was using back then, not candlesticks. My eyes were better back
441 |440 |00:39:14 ~-~-> 00:39:20 |then, too. But I was expecting some wild, weird, freaky candle, or the
442 |441 |00:39:20 ~-~-> 00:39:25 |equivalent today of a candle to come up and stop me out. And that's an
443 |442 |00:39:25 ~-~-> 00:39:32 |unrealistic fear. It took me years to conquer that fear. I had anxiety every
444 |443 |00:39:32 ~-~-> 00:39:36 |single time I put I put a short on because I was expecting some what if
445 |444 |00:39:36 ~-~-> 00:39:42 |scenario. What if it did this? What if it did that? And many times it didn't do
446 |445 |00:39:42 ~-~-> 00:39:45 |it at all. A few times it stopped me out, but it never created that monster
447 |446 |00:39:45 ~-~-> 00:39:52 |candle that came out of nowhere like an ogre, you know. But anyway, let's get on
448 |447 |00:39:52 ~-~-> 00:39:58 |with this. I would use SMT on a 15 minute time frame because it's my
449 |448 |00:39:58 ~-~-> 00:40:02 |Bellwether chart. So in other words. Because this is my go to time frame.
450 |449 |00:40:02 ~-~-> 00:40:07 |This is my get up and go like my gone in 60 seconds. Type time frame, like I can
451 |450 |00:40:07 ~-~-> 00:40:11 |I can make everything I'd ever need in terms of narrative bias, drawing,
452 |451 |00:40:11 ~-~-> 00:40:17 |liquidity, reversals, continuations, inefficiencies, stops that I'm going to
453 |452 |00:40:17 ~-~-> 00:40:22 |aim for. You know, everything I can pull right from this time frame, you may
454 |453 |00:40:22 ~-~-> 00:40:26 |require a little bit, little bit more additional information by having a view
455 |454 |00:40:26 ~-~-> 00:40:30 |of a four hour chart or a three hour chart, a two hour chart, a one hour
456 |455 |00:40:30 ~-~-> 00:40:36 |chart, you may, you may need to refer to that that is absolutely 100% fine. That
457 |456 |00:40:36 ~-~-> 00:40:39 |doesn't mean you're less of a trader than anyone else. It doesn't mean you're
458 |457 |00:40:39 ~-~-> 00:40:42 |doing what you're doing here incorrectly just means you're getting more
459 |458 |00:40:42 ~-~-> 00:40:45 |information. There's nothing wrong with more information. You just got to make
460 |459 |00:40:45 ~-~-> 00:40:48 |sure that you're not inundating yourself with too much information that causes
461 |460 |00:40:48 ~-~-> 00:40:53 |you conflicting analysis. So that's why I strip it down to just give myself the
462 |461 |00:40:53 ~-~-> 00:40:58 |daily and from the daily I'll drop down to a 15 minute time frame. I'm going to
463 |462 |00:40:58 ~-~-> 00:41:01 |skip over four hour through to the 60 minute and go right to the nuts and
464 |463 |00:41:01 ~-~-> 00:41:04 |bolts of 15 minute time frame. So minute time frame. So if I'm going to look at
465 |464 |00:41:05 ~-~-> 00:41:10 |SMT, I would do it here. So just notice the lay the lane here. We have a
466 |465 |00:41:10 ~-~-> 00:41:15 |slightly lower high here, higher high here, consecutive little higher highs in
467 |466 |00:41:15 ~-~-> 00:41:25 |here. And then I would refer to, yes, you can see the high is higher here. Now
468 |467 |00:41:25 ~-~-> 00:41:30 |when the NASDAQ, we didn't have that says, SMT, so NASDAQ at that time since
469 |468 |00:41:30 ~-~-> 00:41:35 |then, it's been weaker. Just remember these, these reference points here, this
470 |469 |00:41:35 ~-~-> 00:41:39 |high is lower than this one. And now look at this. See this high here, this
471 |470 |00:41:39 ~-~-> 00:41:46 |one's lower on es than it is for what NASDAQ so S, P has an S and T
472 |471 |00:41:46 ~-~-> 00:41:50 |divergence. This high doesn't make the same high that we see in NASDAQ. And
473 |472 |00:41:50 ~-~-> 00:41:56 |watch watching a toggle back, see, so that's why you're getting that X ray
474 |473 |00:41:56 ~-~-> 00:42:00 |view behind the scenes. But you would already know being short in this
475 |474 |00:42:00 ~-~-> 00:42:05 |inefficiency is appropriate, because you have this lower high than this one
476 |475 |00:42:05 ~-~-> 00:42:11 |relative to what we just saw on es so on my notepad, I just simply note the time
477 |476 |00:42:13 ~-~-> 00:42:20 |that at 8pm Sunday, which is during Asia last night that There was an SMT
478 |477 |00:42:20 ~-~-> 00:42:26 |divergence 15 minute time frame, at eight o'clock between NASDAQ and ES and
479 |478 |00:42:26 ~-~-> 00:42:30 |NASDAQ is the weaker. So I just put an NQ and a negative next to it. That's
480 |479 |00:42:30 ~-~-> 00:42:34 |what I'm saying. Like, my notepad isn't going to help you do anything except for
481 |480 |00:42:35 ~-~-> 00:42:39 |just I'm referencing what I'm teaching you. I'm not drawing it on my charts,
482 |481 |00:42:39 ~-~-> 00:42:42 |but I have the information on my notepad. That's all I'm doing, folks,
483 |482 |00:42:42 ~-~-> 00:42:47 |I'm not hiding it from you. I know if I show this one time, everybody's going to
484 |483 |00:42:47 ~-~-> 00:42:50 |say, Hey, could you just show us your notepad today? Can you just show us your
485 |484 |00:42:50 ~-~-> 00:42:53 |note? I'm not getting into that. Okay, this is something I've been doing for a
486 |485 |00:42:53 ~-~-> 00:42:57 |long, long time. It's it just helps me reference things. And when I'm out and
487 |486 |00:42:57 ~-~-> 00:43:03 |about, or when I was watching CNBC, I can see that ticker tape at the bottom.
488 |487 |00:43:04 ~-~-> 00:43:08 |And every 10 minutes, the futures market would come by, and the forex market
489 |488 |00:43:08 ~-~-> 00:43:12 |would come by, and it would tell me where I'm at, and because I know where
490 |489 |00:43:12 ~-~-> 00:43:15 |we were, highest, high, lowest, low in the last hour, just by using the ticker
491 |490 |00:43:16 ~-~-> 00:43:19 |you can trade like that. Having this information, you're not going to get
492 |491 |00:43:19 ~-~-> 00:43:23 |precision entries. You don't need that if you're trading for the daily range.
493 |492 |00:43:24 ~-~-> 00:43:29 |But when you combine what I'm teaching you, and you study how you can watch the
494 |493 |00:43:29 ~-~-> 00:43:33 |tape, really watch the tape. I'm not talking about level two data, these
495 |494 |00:43:33 ~-~-> 00:43:36 |people that, these jokers that talk that stuff. Oh, let me see your level two
496 |495 |00:43:36 ~-~-> 00:43:42 |data. That is Mickey Mouse level crap, like it's literally garbage. You're
497 |496 |00:43:42 ~-~-> 00:43:46 |championing something that is literally being used against you, and you're
498 |497 |00:43:46 ~-~-> 00:43:50 |calling yourself informed money because you're looking at it like that. That's
499 |498 |00:43:50 ~-~-> 00:43:53 |the epitome of asshole, like you're you're literally, don't you have no idea
500 |499 |00:43:53 ~-~-> 00:43:56 |what you're talking about. But it seems like you're informed, doesn't it? It
501 |500 |00:43:56 ~-~-> 00:44:01 |looks cool and complicated when you have that volume bars. We've always had the
502 |501 |00:44:01 ~-~-> 00:44:06 |volume at the bottom of the chart, and now volume profile, they want to make
503 |502 |00:44:06 ~-~-> 00:44:09 |you feel like you got something new. They take that and they turn it
504 |503 |00:44:09 ~-~-> 00:44:14 |horizontally to now vertically. Oh, look at that. It's no different than if you
505 |504 |00:44:14 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |just would have laid it down on the bottom. You're looking at something
506 |505 |00:44:18 ~-~-> 00:44:24 |that's already happened since you've already seen it happen, okay, wonderful,
507 |506 |00:44:24 ~-~-> 00:44:28 |you recorded something already happened. What was the weather yesterday? Right?
508 |507 |00:44:28 ~-~-> 00:44:32 |Does that mean you got to wear galoshes today and rain boots? No, it just means
509 |508 |00:44:32 ~-~-> 00:44:35 |that you knew what the weather was yesterday. Well, when you see the
510 |509 |00:44:35 ~-~-> 00:44:41 |volume, wonderful, you counted how many transactions took place there.
511 |510 |00:44:41 ~-~-> 00:44:45 |Wonderful. I don't care about that. That shits in my rear view mirror. I'm
512 |511 |00:44:45 ~-~-> 00:44:49 |already looking down the road, 15 to 20 minutes down the road. I'm way down
513 |512 |00:44:49 ~-~-> 00:44:53 |there looking for hazards and opportunities. You're all looking at
514 |513 |00:44:53 ~-~-> 00:44:55 |stuff in the rear view mirror, and you're wondering why you're sitting
515 |514 |00:44:55 ~-~-> 00:44:58 |there all day long, waiting for setups. Oh, I'm waiting for something to appear.
516 |515 |00:44:58 ~-~-> 00:45:03 |I'm waiting for this. I'm waiting for that. Yeah, I'm anticipating. I know
517 |516 |00:45:03 ~-~-> 00:45:07 |where my stuff's going to be at. And you don't need the SMT divergence here to
518 |517 |00:45:07 ~-~-> 00:45:10 |tell you to get into a trade, because you can see that that inefficiency there
519 |518 |00:45:10 ~-~-> 00:45:15 |is what you'd be entering. You don't need to have any kind of SMT diversions
520 |519 |00:45:15 ~-~-> 00:45:18 |to tell you that trade's good because it's already there. What makes it good?
521 |520 |00:45:20 ~-~-> 00:45:26 |Sell side, buy side, both taken when we had a divergence back here, showing you
522 |521 |00:45:26 ~-~-> 00:45:31 |that the NASDAQ was weak. So we already have a built in what we have a we have a
523 |522 |00:45:31 ~-~-> 00:45:37 |built in heaviness on NASDAQ. It's heavy, and this just so happened to be a
524 |523 |00:45:37 ~-~-> 00:45:42 |little bit more aggressive, just to get in here, to offer a nice premium. What
525 |524 |00:45:42 ~-~-> 00:45:49 |makes this a premium? Why is this wicker here? Why is it a premium? Because if
526 |525 |00:45:49 ~-~-> 00:45:53 |you look at the range from this candle, high, down the disc candle low, right
527 |526 |00:45:53 ~-~-> 00:45:55 |there, I'm going to change the color. You can see
528 |527 |00:46:01 ~-~-> 00:46:06 |it. Can we draw it out here is that wick above the middle center line. See these
529 |528 |00:46:06 ~-~-> 00:46:11 |little outline squares here, that black line right there, that wick right here,
530 |529 |00:46:11 ~-~-> 00:46:16 |that wick right there, that wick right there. Either of them could be short
531 |530 |00:46:16 ~-~-> 00:46:22 |entries, because you're in a premium, because you're inside this inefficiency
532 |531 |00:46:22 ~-~-> 00:46:27 |between this candle one, candle two, candle three, the inefficiency is always
533 |532 |00:46:27 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |candle number two. Your stop, if it can be afforded to you, is always above
534 |533 |00:46:36 ~-~-> 00:46:40 |candlestick number two. But if they're small ranges like you're seeing here,
535 |534 |00:46:41 ~-~-> 00:46:46 |you can use the candlestick number three body, if it has a wick. You can use
536 |535 |00:46:46 ~-~-> 00:46:50 |consequent encroachment on that wick. Don't look at that range from where
537 |536 |00:46:50 ~-~-> 00:46:53 |you'd be entering and think, Okay, this is too big of a stop. I don't want to do
538 |537 |00:46:53 ~-~-> 00:46:58 |that. You should always err on the side of what's my smallest risk. Because
539 |538 |00:46:58 ~-~-> 00:47:02 |you're learning Caleb, you're learning. It's not about impressing that with how
540 |539 |00:47:02 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |much you're making. You're going to impress me by doing the very least and
541 |540 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:11 |being consistent with it, because if you get that under your belt, that is the
542 |541 |00:47:11 ~-~-> 00:47:16 |underlying cookie cutter, that all you have to do is replicate that with more
543 |542 |00:47:16 ~-~-> 00:47:23 |of the same multiplying the same effort of something that's done well is easy to
544 |543 |00:47:23 ~-~-> 00:47:27 |do when you learn how to do it well and consistently, but you have to do it with
545 |544 |00:47:27 ~-~-> 00:47:31 |the smallest degree of risk. You have to do it the smallest degree of leverage.
546 |545 |00:47:32 ~-~-> 00:47:35 |And if you don't, you're going to hear my puppies and background snoring, and I
547 |546 |00:47:35 ~-~-> 00:47:39 |can't do anything about that, because if I if I go outside the room, they're
548 |547 |00:47:39 ~-~-> 00:47:42 |gonna be barking hollering. I don't want that, so just know you're probably going
549 |548 |00:47:42 ~-~-> 00:47:46 |to hear that. It would get on my nerves. See if I heard it live stream too. So
550 |549 |00:47:46 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |that's a premium, but it's also SMT divergence, okay, in case you missed it,
551 |550 |00:47:50 ~-~-> 00:47:54 |I'm going to draw it. No, I won't. I won't draw it. I'm just going to keep
552 |551 |00:47:54 ~-~-> 00:48:00 |the way with I did enough talking about it. So we have the opening of Sunday's
553 |552 |00:48:01 ~-~-> 00:48:06 |gap here. That's 6pm and that's the summit price on Friday. That's what
554 |553 |00:48:06 ~-~-> 00:48:11 |these dash lines are. That is simply just me annotating the weekly gap. So
555 |554 |00:48:11 ~-~-> 00:48:15 |it's new week, opening gap, and now on the on the 15 minute time frame, I'm
556 |555 |00:48:15 ~-~-> 00:48:19 |going to zoom out. Okay, I'm going to zoom out and take in more information.
557 |556 |00:48:21 ~-~-> 00:48:25 |Hang one second. We have headphones on. Be careful right now.
558 |557 |00:48:30 ~-~-> 00:48:38 |Sorry about that. I have to just disturb her a little bit because she's starting
559 |558 |00:48:38 ~-~-> 00:48:48 |to really. Saw some logs over there. I All right. So we have, oh, there's those
560 |559 |00:48:48 ~-~-> 00:48:57 |daily relative equal lows, and look what is below it. We have the weekly buy,
561 |560 |00:48:57 ~-~-> 00:49:00 |sign and balance, sell sign and efficiency. Remember, on the weekly
562 |561 |00:49:00 ~-~-> 00:49:05 |chart, I said, I think that we could explore going down into the very
563 |562 |00:49:05 ~-~-> 00:49:10 |minimum, the high of that busy on the weekly chart, which is the high, that
564 |563 |00:49:10 ~-~-> 00:49:16 |blue shaded area that's anchored on the weekly chart, but it just so happens to
565 |564 |00:49:16 ~-~-> 00:49:23 |be inside of the same proximity of this low and that low. So what's resting
566 |565 |00:49:23 ~-~-> 00:49:36 |right below here? Sell side, liquidity. So we can now take and as I do this,
567 |566 |00:49:36 ~-~-> 00:49:41 |Caleb, you can, you can only this time, you can do screenshots of my charts
568 |567 |00:49:41 ~-~-> 00:49:44 |while I'm doing this live stream, so that way you can have it. It'll save you
569 |568 |00:49:44 ~-~-> 00:49:51 |some time, but this is what you're going to be doing. You do this every single
570 |569 |00:49:51 ~-~-> 00:49:56 |day. You go through your charts and you look at what was given to you with too
571 |570 |00:49:56 ~-~-> 00:50:03 |big and. Okay, so you have sell side liquidity below these relative equal
572 |571 |00:50:03 ~-~-> 00:50:12 |lows, and now with September 20 thirds, weekly low, you now can state also in
573 |572 |00:50:12 ~-~-> 00:50:26 |there that it is also 15 min time frame, relative equal lows sell side, all
574 |573 |00:50:26 ~-~-> 00:50:31 |right. So now stream screenshotting this, because you can see where the
575 |574 |00:50:31 ~-~-> 00:50:38 |reference point is, and then going back over to where price is. Now we have a
576 |575 |00:50:38 ~-~-> 00:50:42 |little inefficiency right now we're trading up into, and we're also inside
577 |576 |00:50:42 ~-~-> 00:50:47 |of another inefficiency that's being shown. I made the mistake of talking
578 |577 |00:50:49 ~-~-> 00:50:54 |when you draw your inefficiencies, you want to annotate them as well so you can
579 |578 |00:50:55 ~-~-> 00:50:59 |toggle them and type in whatever time frame it's anchored to. That way, when
580 |579 |00:50:59 ~-~-> 00:51:03 |you're looking at them, they're much more meaningful. I don't need to have
581 |580 |00:51:03 ~-~-> 00:51:06 |them labeled, because I'm used to not having them at all except for just the
582 |581 |00:51:06 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |numerical values. So when I'm watching price, I'm very frequently just watching
583 |582 |00:51:12 ~-~-> 00:51:17 |this over here, this price axis. I'm literally watching that more than I'm
584 |583 |00:51:17 ~-~-> 00:51:21 |watching the candlesticks, because what I'm watching over here I'm directly
585 |584 |00:51:21 ~-~-> 00:51:24 |correlating to what I have in my notepad, which is every one of these
586 |585 |00:51:24 ~-~-> 00:51:28 |reference points, and I'm constantly writing them in order of where they're
587 |586 |00:51:28 ~-~-> 00:51:33 |at. In other words, I don't write them in a list that I find this value first,
588 |587 |00:51:33 ~-~-> 00:51:36 |and then below it I'll find another value here, and then I find another
589 |588 |00:51:36 ~-~-> 00:51:40 |value. I'm not doing that on my notepad. I'm putting them in the order that they
590 |589 |00:51:40 ~-~-> 00:51:49 |would be on a chart. So in other words, if a price level is 20,000 01, 3.75 I'm
591 |590 |00:51:49 ~-~-> 00:51:56 |not going to write this. This price here at 20,001 93, if I find that value as a
592 |591 |00:51:56 ~-~-> 00:52:00 |PD array, I'm not going to write that underneath this one, because that's not
593 |592 |00:52:00 ~-~-> 00:52:06 |what I'm looking at. I'm looking at how the daily range is going to map out on a
594 |593 |00:52:06 ~-~-> 00:52:10 |piece of paper in a notepad form. And because it's on a notepad, what I do is,
595 |594 |00:52:10 ~-~-> 00:52:16 |every single hour, I'm also writing down the high and the low of that hour. And
596 |595 |00:52:16 ~-~-> 00:52:22 |I'm I'm getting a numerical interpretation of what that daily
597 |596 |00:52:22 ~-~-> 00:52:28 |candlesticks doing. And I don't need I don't need this chart. I don't need that
598 |597 |00:52:29 ~-~-> 00:52:32 |you're asking me to show you something that's going to open up a whole
599 |598 |00:52:32 ~-~-> 00:52:36 |panorama, not Panama, but Pandora's box of questions that I don't want to go
600 |599 |00:52:36 ~-~-> 00:52:39 |through because I don't. It's just something I've been doing for 30 years,
601 |600 |00:52:39 ~-~-> 00:52:43 |and you're probably never going to do it right, and I don't want to teach it,
602 |601 |00:52:43 ~-~-> 00:52:46 |because it's not necessary use the charts. The charts are going to tell you
603 |602 |00:52:46 ~-~-> 00:52:49 |everything you need. It's just something I started because I had to do things
604 |603 |00:52:49 ~-~-> 00:52:53 |like this because I wasn't able to watch real time price action. That's all
605 |604 |00:52:53 ~-~-> 00:52:57 |that's all that, that's all that it is. And then when I started using this same
606 |605 |00:52:57 ~-~-> 00:53:01 |idea, when I was able to watch real time price data, I would keep track of it
607 |606 |00:53:01 ~-~-> 00:53:04 |intraday, and that would add more information. I didn't have all these
608 |607 |00:53:04 ~-~-> 00:53:08 |reference points because I didn't see them driving around in a step band when
609 |608 |00:53:08 ~-~-> 00:53:12 |I was servicing soda machines and candy machines and cold food and coffee
610 |609 |00:53:12 ~-~-> 00:53:18 |machines. That was my job, but I was so used to doing it was just a habit, and
611 |610 |00:53:18 ~-~-> 00:53:21 |that's what I have. I have a notepad with these reference points. It's not
612 |611 |00:53:21 ~-~-> 00:53:24 |something that's scientific, that's going to make your trading better. It
613 |612 |00:53:24 ~-~-> 00:53:28 |just means that that's what I do. You don't need to do that. You just use the
614 |613 |00:53:28 ~-~-> 00:53:32 |charts, because the chart's going to tell you everything you need. And you
615 |614 |00:53:32 ~-~-> 00:53:35 |want to use a time based chart. You don't want to be using Renko Bars. You
616 |615 |00:53:35 ~-~-> 00:53:41 |don't want to be doing any kind of range bars. All that stuff is going to hide
617 |616 |00:53:41 ~-~-> 00:53:47 |the very things I'm teaching you that is time based. The algorithm operates ON
618 |617 |00:53:47 ~-~-> 00:53:53 |Time First, if you're using Renko Bars, or if you're using shit, there's all
619 |618 |00:53:53 ~-~-> 00:53:57 |kinds of stuff out there that anything like a range bar, Renko Bars, or the
620 |619 |00:53:57 ~-~-> 00:54:02 |equivalent, if they're not showing you to open high, low and close on an
621 |620 |00:54:02 ~-~-> 00:54:06 |interval of time. You're not going to be able to see what the algorithm is doing.
622 |621 |00:54:06 ~-~-> 00:54:09 |I promise you that everybody out there that wants to talk algorithmic shit,
623 |622 |00:54:09 ~-~-> 00:54:13 |they just placed that little name, that buzzword, on there, because it's going
624 |623 |00:54:13 ~-~-> 00:54:18 |to make people think they're informed. I'm teaching you how to look at the very
625 |624 |00:54:18 ~-~-> 00:54:24 |aspects of time, because the time based chart and a candlestick is easy to see
626 |625 |00:54:24 ~-~-> 00:54:31 |versus an open, high, low And close bar, this small, little inefficiency in here,
627 |626 |00:54:31 ~-~-> 00:54:31 |I
628 |627 |00:54:44 ~-~-> 00:54:49 |I know, Daniel, I'm not drinking from you Yeti, I was in a rush to get in
629 |628 |00:54:49 ~-~-> 00:54:54 |front of the charts this morning. I have used it several times there, by the way.
630 |629 |00:54:57 ~-~-> 00:55:03 |Who's Daniel? I. Alright, so we have a sibing here, sells out, balance, buy,
631 |630 |00:55:03 ~-~-> 00:55:11 |sign, efficiency. And we have the 60 minute discount wick, consequent
632 |631 |00:55:11 ~-~-> 00:55:15 |encroachment. That means, on an hourly chart, that big, long wick that went
633 |632 |00:55:15 ~-~-> 00:55:20 |lower, that made a swing low at that's half of that wick. So in my mind, before
634 |633 |00:55:20 ~-~-> 00:55:26 |we drop down to a lower five minute chart. Now, in my mind, I'm anticipating
635 |634 |00:55:27 ~-~-> 00:55:33 |a run to this level. It might want to go down below it, come back up dilly dally,
636 |635 |00:55:33 ~-~-> 00:55:37 |around that consequent encroachment level, worst case scenario, and then
637 |636 |00:55:37 ~-~-> 00:55:42 |dive into, in, into the sell side, resting around that 19,009 53, level.
638 |637 |00:55:42 ~-~-> 00:55:54 |Okay, so I anticipate that happening. I am not imposing my will on the market.
639 |638 |00:55:54 ~-~-> 00:56:00 |I'm not saying it has to happen because I want this to happen. I wrote these
640 |639 |00:56:00 ~-~-> 00:56:05 |things on my chart, so therefore it has to happen? No, the market has to
641 |640 |00:56:05 ~-~-> 00:56:09 |indicate that it wants to do that. It needs to do certain things, and we're
642 |641 |00:56:09 ~-~-> 00:56:14 |going to look at that today, okay, but up till now, this is my pre market
643 |642 |00:56:15 ~-~-> 00:56:19 |analysis approach. This is all it is. Is it complicated? No, I did more talking
644 |643 |00:56:19 ~-~-> 00:56:23 |about other things. Probably pissed a lot of you off, but it's a matter of
645 |644 |00:56:23 ~-~-> 00:56:27 |simply doing what I just did here, looking for reference points from the
646 |645 |00:56:27 ~-~-> 00:56:31 |higher Time Frame weekly chart. Because you're going to have to refer to, where
647 |646 |00:56:31 ~-~-> 00:56:33 |are we at? We're going to be reaching for the weekly chart. Because if you
648 |647 |00:56:33 ~-~-> 00:56:37 |don't refer to that, you're going to hide all of these really big runs that
649 |648 |00:56:37 ~-~-> 00:56:49 |might jump out at you unaware. You'll be unaware, and you won't be expecting big
650 |649 |00:56:49 ~-~-> 00:56:54 |moves if you don't have the big move perspective. Timeframe in mind, which is
651 |650 |00:56:54 ~-~-> 00:57:01 |the weekly chart, a sustained price run is going to unfold if the weekly chart,
652 |651 |00:57:01 ~-~-> 00:57:06 |if the monthly chart is indicating that it's likely to go to any given higher or
653 |652 |00:57:06 ~-~-> 00:57:10 |lower price. But if you're framing your trade on the basis of just a 15 minute
654 |653 |00:57:10 ~-~-> 00:57:15 |time frame, and that's all you do, if that's all you do, you won't have the
655 |654 |00:57:15 ~-~-> 00:57:20 |perspective that's required to capture these big monster several 100 handle
656 |655 |00:57:20 ~-~-> 00:57:28 |runs, even if you are not a swing trader or a short term trader. But wouldn't it
657 |656 |00:57:28 ~-~-> 00:57:32 |make sense if you could just go into the chart one time at the beginning of the
658 |657 |00:57:32 ~-~-> 00:57:36 |week, say, Okay, here's the lay to land. This is what could happen, and at least
659 |658 |00:57:36 ~-~-> 00:57:42 |have it on your chart that way, because they're in your charts. Now they're
660 |659 |00:57:42 ~-~-> 00:57:46 |annotated in there. You won't forget about them, because as price if, let me
661 |660 |00:57:46 ~-~-> 00:57:49 |ask you this, if price started to break down in here, and it got down to this
662 |661 |00:57:49 ~-~-> 00:57:53 |level here, knowing what I've already shown you, would it be easy now, because
663 |662 |00:57:53 ~-~-> 00:57:56 |I've walked you through it, would it be easy for you to trust that it's going to
664 |663 |00:57:56 ~-~-> 00:57:58 |at least trade down to the consequent question of that width? If it was
665 |664 |00:57:58 ~-~-> 00:58:01 |trading like right here, would it be reasonable? Would it be easier for you
666 |665 |00:58:01 ~-~-> 00:58:06 |to trust that versus right now? Do you feel confident that it's going to drop
667 |666 |00:58:06 ~-~-> 00:58:09 |right from here? Some of you may not think it's it's going to do that. Some
668 |667 |00:58:09 ~-~-> 00:58:12 |of you might think it's going to go higher for it does that. ICT, or you're
669 |668 |00:58:12 ~-~-> 00:58:16 |wrong. ICT, I'm going long, whatever the point is on my question was, if it
670 |669 |00:58:16 ~-~-> 00:58:22 |dropped sharply and was trading right about here, would it be easy at that
671 |670 |00:58:22 ~-~-> 00:58:26 |time for you to submit to the idea that it's probably going to trade down to
672 |671 |00:58:26 ~-~-> 00:58:30 |that mid wick, mid wick level on the hourly chart, and if it went through
673 |672 |00:58:30 ~-~-> 00:58:34 |that, wouldn't it be reasonable to see it trade down into these relative equal
674 |673 |00:58:34 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |lows, because they're really smooth, right? Can you see how price could work
675 |674 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:45 |from this level here, not at that level specifically, but in this general
676 |675 |00:58:45 ~-~-> 00:58:49 |region, because we have an inefficiency that's shaded there. Can you see how it
677 |676 |00:58:49 ~-~-> 00:58:55 |can move from this one to the blue one? Can you visually see how that could be
678 |677 |00:58:55 ~-~-> 00:58:59 |delivered? Because if you can't see that, that's going to be problematic for
679 |678 |00:58:59 ~-~-> 00:59:02 |your trading, because you have to be able to see your setups before they're
680 |679 |00:59:02 ~-~-> 00:59:07 |there. You have to be able to see how that could pan out. And that's an
681 |680 |00:59:07 ~-~-> 00:59:10 |experience driven thing. It's not something that you're going to be able
682 |681 |00:59:10 ~-~-> 00:59:15 |to see the first time. Caleb, it's over time back testing. That's the point of
683 |682 |00:59:15 ~-~-> 00:59:18 |taking screenshots of trades that you did not do, but you mark them up, and
684 |683 |00:59:18 ~-~-> 00:59:21 |you talk in the chart annotations like you've seen it coming, and you
685 |684 |00:59:21 ~-~-> 00:59:25 |congratulate yourself, and you're tricking your subconscious mind. And I'm
686 |685 |00:59:25 ~-~-> 00:59:29 |literally going to be doing two days, not every day, if I'm going to do two
687 |686 |00:59:29 ~-~-> 00:59:33 |days Caleb, where I'm actually going to annotate in a journal perspective, that
688 |687 |00:59:33 ~-~-> 00:59:37 |way you see exactly what I'm talking about when I'm saying that. You need a
689 |688 |00:59:37 ~-~-> 00:59:41 |sweet self talk yourself into seeing it, but it's going to be in hindsight.
690 |689 |00:59:41 ~-~-> 00:59:44 |You're going to see it in hindsight, because you don't have the skill set
691 |690 |00:59:44 ~-~-> 00:59:48 |yet, but by recording it and annotating your chart with the things I teach my
692 |691 |00:59:48 ~-~-> 00:59:54 |students, it tricks your subconscious mind so that way, when they look at your
693 |692 |00:59:54 ~-~-> 00:59:57 |journal, but when they look at their journal, and when you look at your
694 |693 |00:59:57 ~-~-> 01:00:01 |journal on the weekend and you read your own comment. Saying that, yes, it was
695 |694 |01:00:02 ~-~-> 01:00:05 |amazing to see how I expected this to pan out just like this. It's textbook.
696 |695 |01:00:06 ~-~-> 01:00:14 |You keep giving yourself a cheerleading milestone. Every time a new chart's
697 |696 |01:00:15 ~-~-> 01:00:18 |presented in your journal, you're annotating everything that happened in
698 |697 |01:00:18 ~-~-> 01:00:23 |hindsight like you knew it was going to happen, and by doing that over a
699 |698 |01:00:23 ~-~-> 01:00:26 |repetitive period of time, I don't know how long at times it's going to be for
700 |699 |01:00:26 ~-~-> 01:00:30 |all of you, but over time, doing that as a ritual every single day. It's a
701 |700 |01:00:30 ~-~-> 01:00:36 |routine. It's a regimen that you do every single day, and you journal every
702 |701 |01:00:36 ~-~-> 01:00:40 |single day. You will get better at reading price. You'll see the setups
703 |702 |01:00:40 ~-~-> 01:00:44 |before they form, you'll anticipate them, and then when they do form, you'll
704 |703 |01:00:44 ~-~-> 01:00:47 |be able to learn how to trade them. Okay? And last week, I was supposed to
705 |704 |01:00:47 ~-~-> 01:00:51 |do some work on limit orders. We'll absolutely be doing some of that today
706 |705 |01:00:51 ~-~-> 01:00:58 |and throughout the week. But the the ability to see the potential, how it
707 |706 |01:00:58 ~-~-> 01:01:03 |could deliver from this inefficiency down to that one. It makes sense that it
708 |707 |01:01:03 ~-~-> 01:01:09 |could do that, and it need not be a overall reversal long term, and still
709 |708 |01:01:09 ~-~-> 01:01:14 |see this deliver like that. It could go down here and upset this here and then
710 |709 |01:01:14 ~-~-> 01:01:18 |create some important low and make a higher high and go to all time highs.
711 |710 |01:01:19 ~-~-> 01:01:22 |Don't think that we're trying to predict, or that I'm trying to sell the
712 |711 |01:01:22 ~-~-> 01:01:26 |idea that I'm predicting the top of the market. I'm not trying to do that. All
713 |712 |01:01:26 ~-~-> 01:01:30 |I'm doing is I'm framing this is a best case scenario. This is how I frame it in
714 |713 |01:01:30 ~-~-> 01:01:35 |my mind. Okay, when I go through my first my first analysis for the week,
715 |714 |01:01:35 ~-~-> 01:01:39 |and my pre market analysis, I'm looking for things that I can hang my hat on and
716 |715 |01:01:39 ~-~-> 01:01:46 |say, Okay, push comes to so I am going to submit myself to this above anything
717 |716 |01:01:46 ~-~-> 01:01:50 |else. But if I don't have something that allows me to get in a trade like this,
718 |717 |01:01:50 ~-~-> 01:01:55 |then I'm going to trade with less leverage when I'm taking longs. Do you
719 |718 |01:01:55 ~-~-> 01:02:00 |see what I just did there? I gave myself permission to be wrong about this
720 |719 |01:02:00 ~-~-> 01:02:03 |analysis, but this analysis, but this is the one that I'm going to do the heavy
721 |720 |01:02:03 ~-~-> 01:02:07 |handed leverage on. So I want to be a short seller with my heaviest leverage,
722 |721 |01:02:07 ~-~-> 01:02:10 |aiming for that sell side right there. That's, that's what I'm doing this week.
723 |722 |01:02:11 ~-~-> 01:02:15 |It may not go there today, but that's what I'm looking for this week. That's
724 |723 |01:02:15 ~-~-> 01:02:23 |my real good one shot, one kill setup. Hello. I'm, literally, I'm teaching
725 |724 |01:02:23 ~-~-> 01:02:28 |everything that you've asked for. But can you imagine how I have to go through
726 |725 |01:02:28 ~-~-> 01:02:32 |a lot of things that show you why it's important and what other things are not
727 |726 |01:02:32 ~-~-> 01:02:36 |required? Because you've been watching lots of my videos and you think
728 |727 |01:02:36 ~-~-> 01:02:39 |everything I've ever talked about is necessary for every trade that sets up
729 |728 |01:02:39 ~-~-> 01:02:45 |in your in your in your time frame. It's not true. Not every single price run is
730 |729 |01:02:45 ~-~-> 01:02:49 |going to have a propulsion block. Not every single price run is going to have
731 |730 |01:02:49 ~-~-> 01:02:53 |an institutional entry. I'm sorry, institutional order, flow entry drill.
732 |731 |01:02:53 ~-~-> 01:02:57 |Not every single one of them is going to have a breaker. Not every single one of
733 |732 |01:02:57 ~-~-> 01:03:03 |them is going to have every PD array, but there will be a fair value gap in
734 |733 |01:03:03 ~-~-> 01:03:08 |every fucking one of them. Okay, that's the one that's always going to be there.
735 |734 |01:03:08 ~-~-> 01:03:12 |You may get a little late in the run, but that's okay, as long as that fair
736 |735 |01:03:12 ~-~-> 01:03:19 |value gap is in a premium relative to the range that's going to expand from to
737 |736 |01:03:19 ~-~-> 01:03:23 |the target. Target is this? Okay? This is Terminus. This is my if we trade the
738 |737 |01:03:23 ~-~-> 01:03:30 |here, my best case scenario, my my weekly one shot, one kill, has been
739 |738 |01:03:30 ~-~-> 01:03:36 |satisfied. If I do any other trading, it's just going to be scalps. Now I have
740 |739 |01:03:36 ~-~-> 01:03:42 |answered a huge list of questions just with what I've done so far here as a
741 |740 |01:03:42 ~-~-> 01:03:50 |monolog. Now, let's go down to a lower time frame, five minute chart. All
742 |741 |01:03:50 ~-~-> 01:03:55 |right, so we're looking at a five minute chart with the new week opening gap.
743 |742 |01:03:55 ~-~-> 01:04:07 |That's what the purple dash lines are. The only concern I have is that these
744 |743 |01:04:07 ~-~-> 01:04:13 |highs, even though there was SMT between ES and the NASDAQ, recall that this high
745 |744 |01:04:13 ~-~-> 01:04:19 |here on es was slightly higher than that of the respective high here. I'm going
746 |745 |01:04:19 ~-~-> 01:04:23 |to toggle back to ES and show you in a second. Just give me a moment. But
747 |746 |01:04:23 ~-~-> 01:04:25 |looking at this chart, if I'm wrong,
748 |747 |01:04:26 ~-~-> 01:04:30 |I do believe that we're going to get down here, like based on what we have
749 |748 |01:04:30 ~-~-> 01:04:38 |right now. What changes that? What makes me put that idea on the sidelines for a
750 |749 |01:04:38 ~-~-> 01:04:42 |little while, until something gets back in favor of it, because I'm I'm not
751 |750 |01:04:42 ~-~-> 01:04:49 |infallible. I have to have a contingency plan. If this is what I'm looking for,
752 |751 |01:04:49 ~-~-> 01:04:53 |if I want to see price trade down there and I'm only interested in taking that
753 |752 |01:04:53 ~-~-> 01:04:56 |type of trade, then what am I doing? I'm imposing my will, and I'm teaching you
754 |753 |01:04:56 ~-~-> 01:05:02 |not to do that. Okay, give me one second, folks. Okay. The scalp.
755 |754 |01:05:16 ~-~-> 01:05:19 |Scouts are there snowing obnoxiously, man, it's like a lumberjack of grief.
756 |755 |01:05:20 ~-~-> 01:05:26 |So, I'm teaching you not to impose your will. Caleb, just because dad teaches
757 |756 |01:05:26 ~-~-> 01:05:30 |you to do this with your analysis, it doesn't mean go in there thinking that
758 |757 |01:05:30 ~-~-> 01:05:35 |it's going to be, it's going to be just like you think, because the market will
759 |758 |01:05:35 ~-~-> 01:05:39 |humble you quickly. If you come in there with your will being imposed, it's going
760 |759 |01:05:39 ~-~-> 01:05:42 |to take your will, chew it up, spit it out some days. And that's that's the
761 |760 |01:05:42 ~-~-> 01:05:49 |reality of it. So you save yourself a lot of emotional damage, psychological
762 |761 |01:05:49 ~-~-> 01:05:54 |impact that's adverse if you just open up the idea that you could potentially
763 |762 |01:05:54 ~-~-> 01:06:00 |be wrong. But if given the opportunity to find a short trade, this is what I'm
764 |763 |01:06:00 ~-~-> 01:06:03 |aiming for. I'm aiming for that down there, and everything I've taught on
765 |764 |01:06:03 ~-~-> 01:06:06 |this YouTube channel, you all should be able to see how that fits perfectly.
766 |765 |01:06:07 ~-~-> 01:06:10 |It's not something it's like, it's not a new science being taught here. You can
767 |766 |01:06:10 ~-~-> 01:06:14 |clearly say, Oh, this makes perfect sense, even if the overall higher Time
768 |767 |01:06:14 ~-~-> 01:06:18 |Frame bullishness is still going to be in play and it makes higher highs in the
769 |768 |01:06:18 ~-~-> 01:06:23 |week after it goes down here, I don't care about that right now. I don't care
770 |769 |01:06:23 ~-~-> 01:06:27 |about that. I just know that I am presently, at this moment. I'm not
771 |770 |01:06:27 ~-~-> 01:06:31 |interested in being a buyer. I don't want to be a long holder. I want to see
772 |771 |01:06:31 ~-~-> 01:06:38 |it trade down here, because think about what it does by doing that. Anyone
773 |772 |01:06:38 ~-~-> 01:06:41 |that's long if it trades down here, this is the part for narrative purposes,
774 |773 |01:06:41 ~-~-> 01:06:45 |because I've already given you a bias, but now I gotta tell you how it might
775 |774 |01:06:45 ~-~-> 01:06:51 |deliver. So this is where I think it could go. Could and will. It is two
776 |775 |01:06:51 ~-~-> 01:06:57 |different things, but if I can frame a narrative, a game plan, a way that the
777 |776 |01:06:57 ~-~-> 01:07:03 |price action will be implemented in people's charts to entice them to lower,
778 |777 |01:07:03 ~-~-> 01:07:10 |them, to unseat some, to allow their seat to be taken by someone else with
779 |778 |01:07:10 ~-~-> 01:07:15 |deeper pockets. That's what narrative is. It's it's how the market will
780 |779 |01:07:15 ~-~-> 01:07:23 |manipulate the participants and traders through sentiment or sudden movement in
781 |780 |01:07:23 ~-~-> 01:07:26 |price action, because they're going to rush. They're afraid to miss a move, so
782 |781 |01:07:26 ~-~-> 01:07:29 |they're going to chase price all these types of things. I start going through
783 |782 |01:07:29 ~-~-> 01:07:33 |my mind. Think, how could that be implemented? Because just having this
784 |783 |01:07:33 ~-~-> 01:07:41 |analysis is not enough. It gives you a foundation to operate in. But what can I
785 |784 |01:07:41 ~-~-> 01:07:46 |do in my mind to flesh out a narrative? Why would it be going down in this blue
786 |785 |01:07:46 ~-~-> 01:07:52 |area? You have to have the best case scenario on both sides for a narrative.
787 |786 |01:07:53 ~-~-> 01:07:59 |What I mean by that I've already submitted to you that I am not trying to
788 |787 |01:07:59 ~-~-> 01:08:05 |be someone that's trying to pick the top in the NASDAQ. I'm not trying to do
789 |788 |01:08:05 ~-~-> 01:08:10 |that, and I'm not suggesting at any any capacity at all that by me expecting any
790 |789 |01:08:10 ~-~-> 01:08:14 |kind of short in this area here to trade down here. That's not me predicting the
791 |790 |01:08:14 ~-~-> 01:08:19 |top. And that wouldn't be unsettling for the underlying bullishness of the NASDAQ
792 |791 |01:08:19 ~-~-> 01:08:25 |on a higher time frame. In fact, it's actually very constructive, because
793 |792 |01:08:25 ~-~-> 01:08:32 |we've traded higher for a good period of time, over a month or so, and coming
794 |793 |01:08:32 ~-~-> 01:08:38 |down here to absorb trail stop losses in the form of sell stops or sell side
795 |794 |01:08:38 ~-~-> 01:08:45 |liquidity below relative equal lows, it's advantageous for people to take
796 |795 |01:08:45 ~-~-> 01:08:52 |shorts off at that level. That's a good area for smart money to recoup their
797 |796 |01:08:52 ~-~-> 01:08:58 |short position and cover. And if the market is in fact going to go higher,
798 |797 |01:08:58 ~-~-> 01:09:01 |this would be a great place to take price down there so they can accumulate
799 |798 |01:09:01 ~-~-> 01:09:08 |longs there. So what did I just do? I framed both sides of the narrative how
800 |799 |01:09:08 ~-~-> 01:09:16 |retail can be cannibalized. So narrative is, how can price be used to facilitate
801 |800 |01:09:16 ~-~-> 01:09:22 |the means of smart money getting in, holding to a particular price level, and
802 |801 |01:09:22 ~-~-> 01:09:25 |then once it gets there, what would they do next? And how would that be
803 |802 |01:09:25 ~-~-> 01:09:30 |advantageous for them? I may I may be entirely incorrect, and it may never
804 |803 |01:09:30 ~-~-> 01:09:34 |even go down here this week, but I have to go in with something at the beginning
805 |804 |01:09:34 ~-~-> 01:09:37 |of the week as a framework. I've already said it doesn't need to do this for me
806 |805 |01:09:37 ~-~-> 01:09:41 |to find trade setups. It just means that this is where my heaviest handed
807 |806 |01:09:41 ~-~-> 01:09:45 |leverage will be anchored to a trade that trades down in here, because I want
808 |807 |01:09:45 ~-~-> 01:09:49 |to be a short seller in this area, because my belief is if, if Smart Money
809 |808 |01:09:49 ~-~-> 01:09:59 |has sold short last week inside that daily fair value gap, then why would
810 |809 |01:09:59 ~-~-> 01:10:03 |they want to just. Be taking profits here when they can take it all the way
811 |810 |01:10:03 ~-~-> 01:10:08 |down here and get a huge range and onboard new lungs if they're bullish,
812 |811 |01:10:08 ~-~-> 01:10:11 |because that just cancels out the need for me to be right about picking a top
813 |812 |01:10:11 ~-~-> 01:10:20 |right. I'm not. I'm not trying to pick a top so having the discussion of
814 |813 |01:10:20 ~-~-> 01:10:28 |narrative in books. I can only do one case study or two and have pages of it,
815 |814 |01:10:28 ~-~-> 01:10:32 |and it won't scratch the surface. That's why I talk about the things I talk
816 |815 |01:10:32 ~-~-> 01:10:36 |about, over price action, because I need you to understand how you should
817 |816 |01:10:36 ~-~-> 01:10:40 |internalize price because there is an entity that's smart money. They are
818 |817 |01:10:40 ~-~-> 01:10:45 |greedy. They're more greedy than you are, and they have the advantage. They
819 |818 |01:10:45 ~-~-> 01:10:50 |have the inside track. They know exactly what this algorithm is doing. They're
820 |819 |01:10:50 ~-~-> 01:10:56 |doing more than I'm doing. They know more than I do, and they're in
821 |820 |01:10:56 ~-~-> 01:11:03 |partnership. So they're they're like a Confederate, okay, if you were watching
822 |821 |01:11:03 ~-~-> 01:11:08 |a magician a show, they employed what is called a Confederate, someone that's in
823 |822 |01:11:08 ~-~-> 01:11:12 |the crowd that you don't recognize as part of the part of the show. But
824 |823 |01:11:12 ~-~-> 01:11:15 |they'll say, All right, let's, let's pick somebody from the crowd. Well, as
825 |824 |01:11:15 ~-~-> 01:11:17 |soon as they do that, chances are that that's a Confederate, that's somebody
826 |825 |01:11:17 ~-~-> 01:11:20 |that's already part of the show, but they'll, they'll blur it up a little bit
827 |826 |01:11:20 ~-~-> 01:11:24 |to make it look like it look like it was a random selection of that person. So
828 |827 |01:11:24 ~-~-> 01:11:30 |they're all part of the show. Well, smart money is part of this rigged game
829 |828 |01:11:30 ~-~-> 01:11:36 |system. They're part of it. And the algorithm is just the price engine that
830 |829 |01:11:36 ~-~-> 01:11:41 |delivers price up and down and goes to these points of reference for the
831 |830 |01:11:41 ~-~-> 01:11:47 |purpose of trading to engage the liquidity or reprice to inefficiencies.
832 |831 |01:11:47 ~-~-> 01:11:51 |That's the only things that happen algorithmically, if it's not being
833 |832 |01:11:51 ~-~-> 01:11:53 |delivered that way. Then manual intervention comes in, and then you see
834 |833 |01:11:53 ~-~-> 01:12:01 |what we saw like last week, or FMC, or like, when, when? When? Powell starts
835 |834 |01:12:01 ~-~-> 01:12:07 |talking today, that's absolutely 100% manual intervention. That's why you
836 |835 |01:12:07 ~-~-> 01:12:11 |should not be doing anything while he's talking. And for 15 minutes after he
837 |836 |01:12:11 ~-~-> 01:12:16 |stops talking, start looking in price and looking at my PDA, raise. And when
838 |837 |01:12:16 ~-~-> 01:12:21 |you start booking perfectly to the tick, that means everything went back to
839 |838 |01:12:21 ~-~-> 01:12:26 |algorithm delivery. But if I'm wrong, let's say I'm wrong, okay? Because
840 |839 |01:12:26 ~-~-> 01:12:29 |that's always a likelihood. I spend times where I've had in my prime
841 |840 |01:12:29 ~-~-> 01:12:33 |mentorship, where I gave my weekly analysis, I wasn't 100% but I was in a
842 |841 |01:12:33 ~-~-> 01:12:38 |high 90s accurate. But the times that I'm not right, I have to have a
843 |842 |01:12:38 ~-~-> 01:12:43 |contingency plan. What would I do if I'm not going to sit still? Because we I
844 |843 |01:12:43 ~-~-> 01:12:47 |can't tell you I'm going to sit still on a Monday. And while we're at it, today's
845 |844 |01:12:47 ~-~-> 01:12:52 |Monday of Non Farm Payroll. I am always trading on that Monday. I'm always
846 |845 |01:12:52 ~-~-> 01:12:56 |trading on the Monday of Non Farm Payroll. I tell everyone that's a new
847 |846 |01:12:56 ~-~-> 01:13:00 |student, to just sit still on Mondays outside of Non Farm Payroll, because
848 |847 |01:13:01 ~-~-> 01:13:05 |they usually use that day to set the initial parameters for the weekly range.
849 |848 |01:13:05 ~-~-> 01:13:09 |And you might get chopped up. You might have a winning trade, but you hold on to
850 |849 |01:13:09 ~-~-> 01:13:12 |it too long. It turns against you, or you're doing it wrong because you just
851 |850 |01:13:12 ~-~-> 01:13:16 |don't know you're doing so that's why I tell new students, don't trade on
852 |851 |01:13:16 ~-~-> 01:13:21 |Mondays, and start their trading on Tuesday. You know, their active
853 |852 |01:13:21 ~-~-> 01:13:27 |participation, and say it that way. So because it's Monday, I'm not from
854 |853 |01:13:27 ~-~-> 01:13:33 |payroll, and we have Fed chair, Fed Chair talking this afternoon, we want to
855 |854 |01:13:33 ~-~-> 01:13:37 |be able to find our setup within the first hour of trading. So that means 930
856 |855 |01:13:39 ~-~-> 01:13:45 |to 1030 in that one hour interval. If you can't find your setup, then don't do
857 |856 |01:13:45 ~-~-> 01:13:50 |anything. Just simply sit still and don't do anything. Okay, because the
858 |857 |01:13:50 ~-~-> 01:13:54 |closer we get to Fed Chair talking later on in the afternoon, the closer we get
859 |858 |01:13:54 ~-~-> 01:13:58 |to the afternoon lunch hour, which is technically two hours. It's 1130 to
860 |859 |01:13:58 ~-~-> 01:14:03 |1:30pm the more likely that you're going to get slapped around and you'll get
861 |860 |01:14:03 ~-~-> 01:14:08 |beat up. So you have to have a limit in terms of the time that you're willing to
862 |861 |01:14:08 ~-~-> 01:14:12 |do something on the day that the Fed chairman is going to be talking when
863 |862 |01:14:12 ~-~-> 01:14:18 |they're talking, and just before they're talking, the hand comes in, the manual
864 |863 |01:14:18 ~-~-> 01:14:22 |intervention that the thing that you don't expect to see in price, and if
865 |864 |01:14:22 ~-~-> 01:14:25 |you're in there, you're probably going to get crushed. You're probably going to
866 |865 |01:14:25 ~-~-> 01:14:27 |get stopped out. You're probably going to get scared out of your trade.
867 |866 |01:14:28 ~-~-> 01:14:32 |Everything that would go wrong, that could go wrong, it's going to happen. So
868 |867 |01:14:32 ~-~-> 01:14:36 |don't be in the marketplace. Then. I don't know why anybody would argue
869 |868 |01:14:36 ~-~-> 01:14:40 |against that, that idea of preserving preserving capital, because that's all
870 |869 |01:14:40 ~-~-> 01:14:41 |it is.
871 |870 |01:14:42 ~-~-> 01:14:47 |You are in the times when the market is the least likely to pan out in your
872 |871 |01:14:47 ~-~-> 01:14:52 |favor, and if you win, it's it's just happenstance. It's this that it just
873 |872 |01:14:52 ~-~-> 01:14:56 |happened, that you were on that side, that time. It's not a consistent thing
874 |873 |01:14:56 ~-~-> 01:15:00 |where anybody can go in and say, okay, the Fed chair is talking so I'm. Go
875 |874 |01:15:00 ~-~-> 01:15:03 |short while he's doing this, or I'm gonna go long like anytime someone makes
876 |875 |01:15:03 ~-~-> 01:15:07 |money like that and they want to show it online, just block them, just mute them,
877 |876 |01:15:07 ~-~-> 01:15:11 |do something because they're literally just trying to get an atta boy or at a
878 |877 |01:15:11 ~-~-> 01:15:15 |girl. And I'm telling you that that's the worst time to be in the marketplace.
879 |878 |01:15:15 ~-~-> 01:15:20 |It's the worst because you don't know what they're doing. This is the person
880 |879 |01:15:20 ~-~-> 01:15:24 |that's the head of the Fed, okay? The Federal Reserve, these people are not
881 |880 |01:15:24 ~-~-> 01:15:27 |looking for out for your best interest. They're not they're controlling a
882 |881 |01:15:27 ~-~-> 01:15:30 |narrative. They're troll they're trolling us right now, over the last
883 |882 |01:15:30 ~-~-> 01:15:34 |several years, okay? And everything that's being done to us as an American
884 |883 |01:15:34 ~-~-> 01:15:39 |society and through the economic cycle is punishment. So they're not going to
885 |884 |01:15:39 ~-~-> 01:15:43 |be honest with you, they're not going to tell you how to help you make money.
886 |885 |01:15:43 ~-~-> 01:15:47 |Okay? They're going to tell you something that is absolutely useless to
887 |886 |01:15:47 ~-~-> 01:15:52 |you in in talking points. So you might as well just let them do whatever damage
888 |887 |01:15:52 ~-~-> 01:15:56 |they're going to do. Wait 15 minutes after they're done talking and then go
889 |888 |01:15:56 ~-~-> 01:16:01 |in and see what we have if the prices are reacting out to my PDA, raise and
890 |889 |01:16:01 ~-~-> 01:16:04 |inefficiencies, or are trading into them and then leaving right away, you can
891 |890 |01:16:04 ~-~-> 01:16:08 |tell that we're back to algorithmic delivery. If it's not like that yet,
892 |891 |01:16:08 ~-~-> 01:16:13 |don't trade now. Doesn't that make that very straightforward and simple? You
893 |892 |01:16:13 ~-~-> 01:16:19 |have rules. When you should, when you can't, not when you might. You know it's
894 |893 |01:16:19 ~-~-> 01:16:24 |when you should, and if it's not when you should, it's every time. No, I'm not
895 |894 |01:16:24 ~-~-> 01:16:29 |doing anything. You have to be much more rigid about when you don't do something
896 |895 |01:16:29 ~-~-> 01:16:33 |and don't create these little pockets of Well, I would normally not trade here,
897 |896 |01:16:33 ~-~-> 01:16:37 |but I just feel like, you know, I'm gonna probably get this one right.
898 |897 |01:16:37 ~-~-> 01:16:43 |That's when that's impulsive trading. Impulsive trading Caleb is how you are
899 |898 |01:16:43 ~-~-> 01:16:47 |going to lose money, because you have that little tendency, like I have, where
900 |899 |01:16:49 ~-~-> 01:16:54 |if I'm provoked, I'm gonna bite. If someone chests up to me, I'm there to
901 |900 |01:16:54 ~-~-> 01:16:59 |knock their fucking block off. I'm I'm like that. I'm confrontational. But in
902 |901 |01:16:59 ~-~-> 01:17:03 |trading, you'll have your ass handed to you, and you have to be very, very
903 |902 |01:17:03 ~-~-> 01:17:09 |careful that you don't invite those instances. And if you feel like that,
904 |903 |01:17:09 ~-~-> 01:17:13 |you're going to have that influence, even on a day where you see everything
905 |904 |01:17:13 ~-~-> 01:17:17 |is good, technically, there's no manual intervention likely to happen. It's low
906 |905 |01:17:17 ~-~-> 01:17:21 |resistance, liquidity runs. If you feel that impulse that you, if you feel that
907 |906 |01:17:21 ~-~-> 01:17:29 |tendency coming over, you turn the charts off on your dad, I know what I
908 |907 |01:17:29 ~-~-> 01:17:32 |mean by and you know what I mean by that. But anyone else listening, if you
909 |908 |01:17:32 ~-~-> 01:17:39 |have a reckless disposition, that's my permission to you also, even though that
910 |909 |01:17:39 ~-~-> 01:17:45 |we may be in low resistance liquidity, run conditions, you have to identify
911 |910 |01:17:46 ~-~-> 01:17:52 |where you're going to be euphoric or manic or out of control, impulsive,
912 |911 |01:17:53 ~-~-> 01:18:01 |greedy or at the highest, highest degree of panic. And you get paralyzed, so that
913 |912 |01:18:01 ~-~-> 01:18:04 |that these are all things that you discover about yourself in the first
914 |913 |01:18:04 ~-~-> 01:18:08 |stages of documenting your development and journaling. What do you feel when
915 |914 |01:18:08 ~-~-> 01:18:11 |you're watching price action? Do you feel euphoric? Do you feel scared even
916 |915 |01:18:11 ~-~-> 01:18:14 |though you're not even in a trade? You feel ANC? Do you feel like you're
917 |916 |01:18:14 ~-~-> 01:18:18 |looking for everything that calls that trade not to be profitable? So that way
918 |917 |01:18:18 ~-~-> 01:18:21 |you can say, I've saved myself a lot of time worrying about this because it
919 |918 |01:18:21 ~-~-> 01:18:25 |didn't work. I watched it happen fail like these are all critical things you
920 |919 |01:18:25 ~-~-> 01:18:29 |have to take inventory on. But when you're trading in days like this, where
921 |920 |01:18:29 ~-~-> 01:18:34 |we have a looming event in the afternoon, you will see manual
922 |921 |01:18:34 ~-~-> 01:18:37 |intervention today, guaranteed it's going to happen. You're going to see it.
923 |922 |01:18:38 ~-~-> 01:18:44 |You can predict it. You can anticipate it. We are not going to wait to see if
924 |923 |01:18:44 ~-~-> 01:18:48 |it happens and then react to it. We know that there's a pothole down the road in
925 |924 |01:18:48 ~-~-> 01:18:53 |the afternoon session. So don't trade the afternoon session. How hard is that?
926 |925 |01:18:53 ~-~-> 01:18:57 |Some of you say, Oh, he said not to do it. I'm going to go out there and do it.
927 |926 |01:18:57 ~-~-> 01:19:00 |Well, I understand that. I read a sign says, Don't walk on the grass. I want a
928 |927 |01:19:00 ~-~-> 01:19:02 |moonwalk on it. I know it's natural tendency. That's our sinful nature.
929 |928 |01:19:02 ~-~-> 01:19:07 |Sinful nature, but in trading, why are you going to invite recklessness that
930 |929 |01:19:07 ~-~-> 01:19:10 |causes you to lose money? If you're wrong, I'm not going to be impressed if
931 |930 |01:19:10 ~-~-> 01:19:15 |you come and show Look at this. I said, he said this, I'm never like man. I'm
932 |931 |01:19:15 ~-~-> 01:19:18 |exposed. He took a trade in a time. I said I wouldn't take a trade. He should
933 |932 |01:19:18 ~-~-> 01:19:22 |do mentorships. Let me. Let me sign up to his mentorship. I'm not thinking like
934 |933 |01:19:22 ~-~-> 01:19:25 |that. I'm thinking you're a goober and you're literally gambling. That's how
935 |934 |01:19:25 ~-~-> 01:19:28 |that's how I see it. I see that with anybody that's treating if you're live
936 |935 |01:19:28 ~-~-> 01:19:31 |streaming, you're trying to do it during these time series. You're an idiot, but
937 |936 |01:19:31 ~-~-> 01:19:37 |you're an idiot. You're literally asking to have your lunch eaten, and you're
938 |937 |01:19:37 ~-~-> 01:19:46 |leaving a tiff so you when five minute chart, we have our inefficiency here.
939 |938 |01:19:46 ~-~-> 01:19:49 |I'm going to drop down into a one minute chart. I'm.
940 |939 |01:20:01 ~-~-> 01:20:08 |Uh, I'm, I mean, I may not go down to a 15 second chart this morning. We will be
941 |940 |01:20:08 ~-~-> 01:20:12 |in a 15 second chart every single day the rest of the week, because I want to
942 |941 |01:20:12 ~-~-> 01:20:19 |go in and teach you volatility pinball, where you're literally engaging several
943 |942 |01:20:19 ~-~-> 01:20:23 |times in an hour, you're buying and selling, buying and selling, buying and
944 |943 |01:20:23 ~-~-> 01:20:28 |selling. And what it was for me to teach myself to get over the fear of shorting,
945 |944 |01:20:30 ~-~-> 01:20:34 |I had to desensitize myself. And that idea came from Larry Williams out of his
946 |945 |01:20:34 ~-~-> 01:20:39 |own mouth. He said that he was scared to take trades. And because I heard my hero
947 |946 |01:20:39 ~-~-> 01:20:45 |say those words, what did I do? I associated myself with that. Oh, so he
948 |947 |01:20:45 ~-~-> 01:20:49 |feels that way. I'm 20 years old. I'm impressionable, like all of you are. He.
949 |948 |01:20:49 ~-~-> 01:20:55 |He said something, and I was like, You know what? I want to associate myself
950 |949 |01:20:55 ~-~-> 01:20:59 |with this man as much as I can. I want to emulate this man as much as I can. I
951 |950 |01:21:00 ~-~-> 01:21:04 |want to be successful like this man as much as I can. So he says that he's
952 |951 |01:21:04 ~-~-> 01:21:12 |afraid of taking trades. Before I started trading, I had that underlying
953 |952 |01:21:12 ~-~-> 01:21:16 |thought process, I wonder if I'm going to be scared of trading. But I wasn't
954 |953 |01:21:16 ~-~-> 01:21:20 |initially. I just went in there and like a like a cowboy, just jumped on that
955 |954 |01:21:20 ~-~-> 01:21:26 |bull and road ro and I was only buying look right here.
956 |955 |01:21:38 ~-~-> 01:21:45 |There's sell side resting right below there. So I started with this, I'm going
957 |956 |01:21:45 ~-~-> 01:21:52 |to go in and I'm going to go short and try to defeat these demons that I'm
958 |957 |01:21:52 ~-~-> 01:21:59 |afraid of. And I was afraid every single time, like full blown anxiety attacks
959 |958 |01:21:59 ~-~-> 01:22:03 |every single point, and it was, it's horrifying, because I didn't understand
960 |959 |01:22:03 ~-~-> 01:22:06 |what I was doing. I was I knew I could lose money, because I was losing money
961 |960 |01:22:06 ~-~-> 01:22:09 |as a long holder. When I would go long, I would I would have losing trades. I
962 |961 |01:22:09 ~-~-> 01:22:14 |could make money, but I would lose it too. And because the market had shifted
963 |962 |01:22:15 ~-~-> 01:22:18 |everything that would have been bullish, it was just a small little
964 |963 |01:22:18 ~-~-> 01:22:22 |consolidation, and then it would drop lower. So I would be tricked into
965 |964 |01:22:22 ~-~-> 01:22:25 |thinking that the indicators that were oversold and diverging bullishly and
966 |965 |01:22:25 ~-~-> 01:22:30 |whatnot, and my moving average and maybe even sloping up on a 50 day, simple
967 |966 |01:22:30 ~-~-> 01:22:33 |moving average, I'm sorry, exponential moving average, that was my model back
968 |967 |01:22:33 ~-~-> 01:22:37 |then, and because everything at the time was going up, you know, I was in a 90s
969 |968 |01:22:37 ~-~-> 01:22:41 |bull market. So of course, it's not skilled, but I felt like it was and I
970 |969 |01:22:42 ~-~-> 01:22:46 |was on America Online, trying to teach people how to do what was obvious, the
971 |970 |01:22:46 ~-~-> 01:22:51 |market was going to go up, right? So I tricked myself into thinking that I was
972 |971 |01:22:51 ~-~-> 01:22:54 |hot shit back then, and I didn't know, really know what I was doing. And then
973 |972 |01:22:54 ~-~-> 01:22:59 |when the market went to a bearish phase where it just wanted to go lower, every
974 |973 |01:22:59 ~-~-> 01:23:03 |time I bought, I lost every single time. And I would just erode the account,
975 |974 |01:23:03 ~-~-> 01:23:07 |erode the account, and I'd have to work a part time job in addition to the long
976 |975 |01:23:07 ~-~-> 01:23:11 |hours I did. And it was, it was terrible. It was terrible to get the
977 |976 |01:23:11 ~-~-> 01:23:15 |little bit of money scraped up in to put into an account. And I would repeat the
978 |977 |01:23:15 ~-~-> 01:23:18 |same cycle over and over and over again. And then I was like, Well, you know, I
979 |978 |01:23:18 ~-~-> 01:23:21 |gotta learn how to be a short seller, like I have to do. I have to be able to
980 |979 |01:23:21 ~-~-> 01:23:27 |do this. And the way I overcame that was use the logic that Larry Williams said
981 |980 |01:23:27 ~-~-> 01:23:31 |he did. He was afraid of taking trades from the beginning, and in the
982 |981 |01:23:31 ~-~-> 01:23:36 |beginning, I wasn't it was something that I adopted because I want to
983 |982 |01:23:36 ~-~-> 01:23:41 |associate myself with him psychologically, and I was emotionally
984 |983 |01:23:41 ~-~-> 01:23:47 |committed to being a student of his. He didn't know me from anyone, but I wanted
985 |984 |01:23:47 ~-~-> 01:23:53 |to assimilate with his thought process on everything. And the only thing that
986 |985 |01:23:53 ~-~-> 01:23:57 |you should assimilate with me is how price books. Me is the person none of
987 |986 |01:23:57 ~-~-> 01:24:02 |you should look up to as a hero. I am not. I am not someone to look up to. I
988 |987 |01:24:02 ~-~-> 01:24:08 |am absolutely 100% fallible. I am a sinner. I am not a good role model. I
989 |988 |01:24:08 ~-~-> 01:24:13 |say things to incite people emotionally, to cause them to come here for the
990 |989 |01:24:13 ~-~-> 01:24:18 |Express purposes proving them wrong. I get off on that. That's not something
991 |990 |01:24:18 ~-~-> 01:24:23 |that's a good characteristic in a person, because I feel like I have to
992 |991 |01:24:23 ~-~-> 01:24:28 |scratch an itch that's deep rooted in my childhood. I have that all the time in
993 |992 |01:24:28 ~-~-> 01:24:34 |me, that's a character flaw. That's why I'm not the best mentor. I have a deep,
994 |993 |01:24:34 ~-~-> 01:24:40 |rooted vendetta that I have to I have to prove myself to my grandfather, not you,
995 |994 |01:24:40 ~-~-> 01:24:43 |not you listening. I have to prove something to my grandfather. I can't I
996 |995 |01:24:43 ~-~-> 01:24:49 |can't do that. So I'm never satisfied. So it causes me to do things
997 |996 |01:24:49 ~-~-> 01:24:53 |impulsively, and that's why you see me do the best I can in terms of managing
998 |997 |01:24:53 ~-~-> 01:24:59 |that by in flaming other people, make them come here and prove that what I'm
999 |998 |01:24:59 ~-~-> 01:25:04 |doing. One isn't true, isn't real. And then when I make profitable students and
1000 |999 |01:25:04 ~-~-> 01:25:07 |they become millionaires, it's satisfying to me. I twist the knife
1001 |1000 |01:25:07 ~-~-> 01:25:13 |because it satisfies me. If I was in 100% control over myself, I wouldn't
1002 |1001 |01:25:13 ~-~-> 01:25:18 |have those impulses, but I don't, so therefore I'm not the best mentor,
1003 |1002 |01:25:18 ~-~-> 01:25:27 |because I am, I'm I'm riddled with that so but in terms of price action, you
1004 |1003 |01:25:27 ~-~-> 01:25:31 |absolutely should assimilate yourself to that, because what I'm teaching is
1005 |1004 |01:25:31 ~-~-> 01:25:36 |distinct from me as the man, the person I'm not here for friends you you should
1006 |1005 |01:25:36 ~-~-> 01:25:40 |never want to meet me. You're not going to be impressed. I'm not going to want
1007 |1006 |01:25:40 ~-~-> 01:25:43 |to want to be friendly with you. I'm introverted. I don't sound like I'm
1008 |1007 |01:25:43 ~-~-> 01:25:49 |introverted because I'm talking to a screen with my child in mind. But if you
1009 |1008 |01:25:49 ~-~-> 01:25:54 |met me, I would not feel inclined to be able to talk to you like this. It would
1010 |1009 |01:25:54 ~-~-> 01:26:00 |take time for for that to happen. I met one of my students on the internet, one
1011 |1010 |01:26:00 ~-~-> 01:26:07 |of them, just one. And I was extremely uncomfortable, very, very uncomfortable.
1012 |1011 |01:26:07 ~-~-> 01:26:13 |And I don't want to do that again, as much as many you want that to happen. I
1013 |1012 |01:26:13 ~-~-> 01:26:15 |don't want to I don't want to have that happen. What I'm watching here is see
1014 |1013 |01:26:15 ~-~-> 01:26:22 |how the bodies are just hanging around the middle of this inefficiency. 930 930
1015 |1014 |01:26:24 ~-~-> 01:26:34 |let's take a look at the so we have a discount gap that could trade up into
1016 |1015 |01:26:34 ~-~-> 01:26:34 |here.
1017 |1016 |01:26:42 ~-~-> 01:27:00 |I I know ugly color. So we're in the lower quadrant of the opening range gap.
1018 |1017 |01:27:04 ~-~-> 01:27:08 |I was saying earlier and I didn't get a chance to say because I was discussing
1019 |1018 |01:27:08 ~-~-> 01:27:17 |other things, if I was wrong about it, going down into the weekly imbalance and
1020 |1019 |01:27:17 ~-~-> 01:27:23 |that hourly discount WIC, it may want to come up and take buy side out so it
1021 |1020 |01:27:23 ~-~-> 01:27:27 |could take a pass through this is assuming I'm wrong. It could trade above
1022 |1021 |01:27:27 ~-~-> 01:27:32 |that and really entice people to think it's going to go higher, and then I'd
1023 |1022 |01:27:32 ~-~-> 01:27:39 |have to wait for it to break down again and get down below whatever first grade,
1024 |1023 |01:27:39 ~-~-> 01:27:44 |first spare value gap that forms in the one minute chart, which is yet to form.
1025 |1024 |01:27:48 ~-~-> 01:27:54 |But any setup, the entry would have to be in the first hour trading. So between
1026 |1025 |01:27:54 ~-~-> 01:28:00 |930 and 1030 and if there's no entry, there's no trade, I would simply tell
1027 |1026 |01:28:00 ~-~-> 01:28:06 |Cale he can't trade. Can't take a trade today, but he can trade all up to inside
1028 |1027 |01:28:06 ~-~-> 01:28:09 |that first hour. So that means what he can take a silver bullet,
1029 |1028 |01:28:20 ~-~-> 01:28:24 |and what that is? What is that?
1030 |1029 |01:28:32 ~-~-> 01:28:35 |I must have laid a rectangle down to complete it. There's nothing in here.
1031 |1030 |01:28:35 ~-~-> 01:28:46 |I'm looking at there. The buy side has been ran here. So we went above the
1032 |1031 |01:28:46 ~-~-> 01:28:52 |opening range gap relative to last Friday's settlement to today's open.
1033 |1032 |01:28:52 ~-~-> 01:28:57 |That's what that yellow box is. Any of this run here, I'm not interested in any
1034 |1033 |01:28:57 ~-~-> 01:29:03 |of that. If it keeps on going higher, it simply means it's going to do it without
1035 |1034 |01:29:03 ~-~-> 01:29:07 |me. See how liberating that is. I'm not arm wrestling and saying I have to be in
1036 |1035 |01:29:07 ~-~-> 01:29:11 |here long. I have to figure out along if I'm wrong. I have to figure it out. No,
1037 |1036 |01:29:11 ~-~-> 01:29:17 |I don't. You don't have to either. Caleb, social media has a terrible
1038 |1037 |01:29:17 ~-~-> 01:29:23 |tendency to make people think that someone else out there is always taking
1039 |1038 |01:29:23 ~-~-> 01:29:27 |the trade that's moving right now, and I'm telling you, I have lots of ways to
1040 |1039 |01:29:27 ~-~-> 01:29:31 |get into every single type of move. I'm not thinking that way, and I'm certainly
1041 |1040 |01:29:31 ~-~-> 01:29:35 |not trying to do that, and nobody out there as a trader should be trying to do
1042 |1041 |01:29:39 ~-~-> 01:29:50 |that. I top of that
1043 |1042 |01:29:51 ~-~-> 01:29:57 |inefficiency that's shaded here, this one that that low shaded area to that
1044 |1043 |01:29:57 ~-~-> 01:30:01 |high shaded area, it could come up. And hit that. If it's going to go there, it
1045 |1044 |01:30:01 ~-~-> 01:30:06 |would make sense worth the wick above. Take the liquidity out here. Otherwise
1046 |1045 |01:30:06 ~-~-> 01:30:11 |it would need to stop with the bodies in the upper quadrant of it. Remember it's
1047 |1046 |01:30:11 ~-~-> 01:30:15 |at and roll over anything that's shown here right now. I'm not interested in
1048 |1047 |01:30:15 ~-~-> 01:30:16 |any of that.
1049 |1048 |01:30:22 ~-~-> 01:30:46 |I'm I just want to take a quick look at ES and comparison.
1050 |1049 |01:30:53 ~-~-> 01:31:00 |All right, you can see what es can do, right. Right here, there's your buy
1051 |1050 |01:31:00 ~-~-> 01:31:09 |side, so it might be trying to get up here to disrupt this. So for ES, we can
1052 |1051 |01:31:09 ~-~-> 01:31:13 |monitor this one, because It does definitely have a draw on liquidity
1053 |1052 |01:31:13 ~-~-> 01:31:13 |there.
1054 |1053 |01:31:22 ~-~-> 01:32:03 |I'm so what we're seeing here is the decoupling. Decoupling is when all three
1055 |1054 |01:32:03 ~-~-> 01:32:10 |averages are doing something different. This drop down is not seen in NASDAQ.
1056 |1055 |01:32:10 ~-~-> 01:32:16 |It's not seen in ES. Let's go back to ES. See that. So I would expect them to
1057 |1056 |01:32:16 ~-~-> 01:32:20 |come up here and disrupt this. They don't have to, but it would be much more
1058 |1057 |01:32:20 ~-~-> 01:32:23 |meaningful if they hit it and then started to sell off. That means they
1059 |1058 |01:32:23 ~-~-> 01:32:26 |took out these individuals here. If they take them out, what are they doing it
1060 |1059 |01:32:26 ~-~-> 01:32:29 |for? They're taking them out to take their stops, and they're going to sell
1061 |1060 |01:32:29 ~-~-> 01:32:34 |short against those buy stops. So anyone that's short, they have their protective
1062 |1061 |01:32:34 ~-~-> 01:32:38 |buy stop right above here. So it's reasonable to anticipate the market want
1063 |1062 |01:32:38 ~-~-> 01:32:42 |to go up there. What would be the narrative for that? Well, if it goes
1064 |1063 |01:32:42 ~-~-> 01:32:46 |higher on the day, it goes without saying that that would be a nice area
1065 |1064 |01:32:46 ~-~-> 01:32:50 |for them to take partial profits and lock in something profitably. But I like
1066 |1065 |01:32:50 ~-~-> 01:32:55 |the idea of it going there to see if it can unseat these individuals. They don't
1067 |1066 |01:32:55 ~-~-> 01:32:58 |get to have the profit here, it's being taken from them. And then if it sells
1068 |1067 |01:32:58 ~-~-> 01:33:02 |off from there, and it starts to build in technicals that would send us down to
1069 |1068 |01:33:02 ~-~-> 01:33:07 |that sell side. That's the idea, and that's the side of the market I want to
1070 |1069 |01:33:07 ~-~-> 01:33:11 |be on. This is all just me watching and monitoring and just, yeah, okay, we're
1071 |1070 |01:33:11 ~-~-> 01:33:16 |tape reading it. I'm not in it. I don't want to trade it long in there. We can,
1072 |1071 |01:33:16 ~-~-> 01:33:21 |but I'm not interested. I want to see what we do when we get there, add to it
1073 |1072 |01:33:21 ~-~-> 01:33:29 |that we have the indices not agreeing. So the only element of Dow Theory that I
1074 |1073 |01:33:29 ~-~-> 01:33:35 |do use, okay, is I like the idea if I'm bearish, I want to see all three
1075 |1074 |01:33:35 ~-~-> 01:33:43 |averages moving in the same direction. That's That's simple, okay, but I don't
1076 |1075 |01:33:43 ~-~-> 01:33:48 |see that here today, neither do you. The Dow has dropped. The NASDAQ has gone
1077 |1076 |01:33:48 ~-~-> 01:33:53 |higher. Well, let's go back to it real quick. The S, P is obviously doing what
1078 |1077 |01:33:53 ~-~-> 01:33:59 |you see it doing here. So this is a decoupled, actually, system. Watch them
1079 |1078 |01:33:59 ~-~-> 01:34:06 |hit the stops first. Then we'll go to NASA. Whenever you're trading, looking
1080 |1079 |01:34:06 ~-~-> 01:34:10 |for a setup or one you're in a trade setup, you want to see all three
1081 |1080 |01:34:10 ~-~-> 01:34:16 |averages agree. That means, if you're bearish and you're in a short even
1082 |1081 |01:34:16 ~-~-> 01:34:20 |though I don't like the Dow because it's only 30 stocks and it's a little unruly,
1083 |1082 |01:34:20 ~-~-> 01:34:29 |so it's called the Dirty 30. The the impact on its movement, buying and of
1084 |1083 |01:34:29 ~-~-> 01:34:34 |itself is, is not all that important, but it is usually, sometimes the canary
1085 |1084 |01:34:34 ~-~-> 01:34:39 |in the coal mine, where, if we see the Dow just saying, no, not doing something
1086 |1085 |01:34:40 ~-~-> 01:34:48 |that you you other two are doing that may be indicative of something changing,
1087 |1086 |01:34:48 ~-~-> 01:34:53 |not all the time, but if I do see a divergence between the NASDAQ and the s,
1088 |1087 |01:34:53 ~-~-> 01:34:58 |p and they're not doing the same thing, that's clearly a time when you don't
1089 |1088 |01:34:58 ~-~-> 01:35:03 |want to be trading because. You're in a decoupled condition, and you're most
1090 |1089 |01:35:03 ~-~-> 01:35:08 |likely playing in a sandbox where manual intervention is about to happen. You're
1091 |1090 |01:35:08 ~-~-> 01:35:11 |gonna have sand kicked in your face. You're not gonna go see what you're
1092 |1091 |01:35:11 ~-~-> 01:35:14 |doing. You're gonna lose visibility, and you're gonna lose money, and if you lose
1093 |1092 |01:35:14 ~-~-> 01:35:17 |control of yourself, you'll wreck yourself, go on tilt and blow your
1094 |1093 |01:35:17 ~-~-> 01:35:22 |account. So, long story short, you want to have a day or a session when you're
1095 |1094 |01:35:22 ~-~-> 01:35:26 |trading where all three averages are a green. So we'll cycle through. We just
1096 |1095 |01:35:26 ~-~-> 01:35:30 |went right back to the same high. I think they're going to still go and hit
1097 |1096 |01:35:30 ~-~-> 01:35:37 |that. But let's look at NASDAQ. Okay, so we took out the highs. We ran over here
1098 |1097 |01:35:37 ~-~-> 01:35:40 |and took the hideout over here. Told you if it was going to go to the high, that
1099 |1098 |01:35:40 ~-~-> 01:35:43 |shaded area, it'd be reasonable to anticipate. Reasonable to anticipate
1100 |1099 |01:35:43 ~-~-> 01:35:53 |them blowing out the stops above here, which we've just seen them do that
1101 |1100 |01:35:53 ~-~-> 01:35:56 |there. So I would want to see it. Unfortunately, it's probably gonna have
1102 |1101 |01:35:56 ~-~-> 01:36:01 |to hang around up here until es completes its rotation for buy side
1103 |1102 |01:36:02 ~-~-> 01:36:07 |here. I mean, it would be highly unlikely for it to leave it like that
1104 |1103 |01:36:07 ~-~-> 01:36:11 |and to start to drop. It's happened before. We saw that a couple weeks ago
1105 |1104 |01:36:11 ~-~-> 01:36:16 |with the NASDAQ. It just left those quadruple highs up there and dropped
1106 |1105 |01:36:16 ~-~-> 01:36:19 |like almost 1000 handles, and then came back where later on i
1107 |1106 |01:36:24 ~-~-> 01:36:35 |And now watch with the Dow. Are they all agreeing? No. So how can you feel
1108 |1107 |01:36:35 ~-~-> 01:36:38 |comfortable sitting on the sidelines and that you all have a trade on right now,
1109 |1108 |01:36:38 ~-~-> 01:36:42 |when the market looks like this, all three in a perfect world where there is
1110 |1109 |01:36:42 ~-~-> 01:36:46 |symmetry. This is not a symmetrical market. A symmetrical market is where
1111 |1110 |01:36:46 ~-~-> 01:36:51 |all three averages are moving in the same direction. This is saying I'm not
1112 |1111 |01:36:51 ~-~-> 01:36:56 |even going up there. I'm going to go lower, which, to me, I'm taking that
1113 |1112 |01:36:56 ~-~-> 01:37:00 |based on what I've already did is in the pre market analysis that this is the
1114 |1113 |01:37:00 ~-~-> 01:37:03 |canary in the coal mine. It's saying that there's something wrong with this.
1115 |1114 |01:37:03 ~-~-> 01:37:10 |Let's go back and look at the other indices. Here's the s, p, and here is
1116 |1115 |01:37:10 ~-~-> 01:37:14 |the NASDAQ. So I would like to see NASDAQ just stay here. Hold it like a
1117 |1116 |01:37:14 ~-~-> 01:37:20 |bull flag formation. Let everybody anticipate breaking higher and then a
1118 |1117 |01:37:20 ~-~-> 01:37:24 |sharp breakdown lower, and then inside the opening range gap, treat the
1119 |1118 |01:37:24 ~-~-> 01:37:29 |midpoint once it gets below that, treat that midpoint as a premium, and then
1120 |1119 |01:37:29 ~-~-> 01:37:35 |sell off from there and displace but we have the very First
1121 |1120 |01:37:40 ~-~-> 01:37:47 |fair value gap here on the one minute chart is at 931 it's rather large there,
1122 |1121 |01:37:48 ~-~-> 01:37:52 |and it was this is all ahead of the Chicago PMI too, by the way, that comes
1123 |1122 |01:37:52 ~-~-> 01:38:01 |out in less than four minutes. So I take this as them fluffing up the market,
1124 |1123 |01:38:01 ~-~-> 01:38:06 |stopping out in any of the any individuals that were short, and then
1125 |1124 |01:38:06 ~-~-> 01:38:11 |they may elect to take the bar the market down sharply into our objectives
1126 |1125 |01:38:11 ~-~-> 01:38:17 |here on the day or going into tomorrow. That's kind of like what I internalize.
1127 |1126 |01:38:17 ~-~-> 01:38:20 |I a
1128 |1127 |01:38:32 ~-~-> 01:38:36 |scout, such a little, tiny boxer, like she's little, but she snores like a
1129 |1128 |01:38:36 ~-~-> 01:38:41 |Saint Bernard, sweetie, but she's got
1130 |1129 |01:38:43 ~-~-> 01:38:44 |an awful snore. We
1131 |1130 |01:38:47 ~-~-> 01:38:53 |don't care about your dog. ICT put a trade on. Sorry. This is union rules.
1132 |1131 |01:38:53 ~-~-> 01:38:56 |All three rules have to talk about things outside the chart that to
1133 |1132 |01:38:56 ~-~-> 01:39:02 |distract you. Union rules, man, we have to do it all the time. I
1134 |1133 |01:39:07 ~-~-> 01:39:08 |This guy's, I see
1135 |1134 |01:39:10 ~-~-> 01:39:14 |it. Look at the Dow. This is garbage. You guys want to trade this one man like
1136 |1135 |01:39:14 ~-~-> 01:39:17 |this. This to me. I know some of you like, Oh, this is my thing. This is my
1137 |1136 |01:39:17 ~-~-> 01:39:17 |thing.
1138 |1137 |01:39:19 ~-~-> 01:39:20 |You can have your thing. I
1139 |1138 |01:39:24 ~-~-> 01:39:32 |No, it stopped dead on, that would annoy me. Be honest with you, if they just
1140 |1139 |01:39:32 ~-~-> 01:39:35 |dropped it from there, that would absolutely annoy me, but it would mean
1141 |1140 |01:39:35 ~-~-> 01:39:38 |that we're probably gonna have to come up here later on, which would be fine,
1142 |1141 |01:39:38 ~-~-> 01:39:41 |right? If they're gonna take it all the way down to our NASDAQ objective,
1143 |1142 |01:39:41 ~-~-> 01:39:46 |they're leaving what up here then buy side. So coming all the way down to that
1144 |1143 |01:39:46 ~-~-> 01:39:52 |deep discount on NASDAQ and dropping ES and sympathy with it, this would be
1145 |1144 |01:39:52 ~-~-> 01:39:59 |where the market would draw to on the upside, if, if it goes down there, down
1146 |1145 |01:39:59 ~-~-> 01:40:09 |where, down. On there. So looks like we're trying to build in that pseudo
1147 |1146 |01:40:09 ~-~-> 01:40:10 |bull flag thing.
1148 |1147 |01:40:17 ~-~-> 01:40:22 |So right away, you can see how and why I don't keep all this stuff on my chart,
1149 |1148 |01:40:23 ~-~-> 01:40:30 |because it's, to me, it's absolutely distracting. But I have to have these
1150 |1149 |01:40:30 ~-~-> 01:40:35 |things framed out for you to understand what I'm looking at. So if I'm, you
1151 |1150 |01:40:35 ~-~-> 01:40:41 |know, if I'm holding an opinion around certain key levels, what are they based
1152 |1151 |01:40:41 ~-~-> 01:40:50 |on? Well, everything I've outlined here, all right, 30 seconds to Chicago, PMI
1153 |1152 |01:40:50 ~-~-> 01:40:50 |number I
1154 |1153 |01:41:08 ~-~-> 01:41:15 |10 seconds, we'll see some volatility. This is a medium impact news driver, so
1155 |1154 |01:41:15 ~-~-> 01:41:20 |it's not red, but it's inside that first 30 minutes opening range. Should it can
1156 |1155 |01:41:20 ~-~-> 01:41:21 |tend to be a little bit more animated than
1157 |1156 |01:41:27 ~-~-> 01:41:32 |normal. Really, should be looking at es Michaels see if they run around those
1158 |1157 |01:41:32 ~-~-> 01:41:33 |relative equal highs. I
1159 |1158 |01:41:45 ~-~-> 01:41:50 |No matter what price is doing in this environment, because there's a
1160 |1159 |01:41:50 ~-~-> 01:42:01 |decoupling between all three averages that gives me a confidence to sit still.
1161 |1160 |01:42:02 ~-~-> 01:42:06 |If everything, if every average was moving in the same direction, I would
1162 |1161 |01:42:06 ~-~-> 01:42:09 |feel like they were probably going to take it higher and continuously move
1163 |1162 |01:42:09 ~-~-> 01:42:16 |higher. But because the Dow had already like, imagine a canary, a little bird,
1164 |1163 |01:42:16 ~-~-> 01:42:20 |okay, coal miners used to have these little bird cages in the in the coal
1165 |1164 |01:42:20 ~-~-> 01:42:24 |mine with them, and because they're a smaller little animal, their lung
1166 |1165 |01:42:24 ~-~-> 01:42:29 |capacity smaller and they're more susceptible to adverse climate and
1167 |1166 |01:42:29 ~-~-> 01:42:35 |environmental changes. When oxygen levels would drop to dangerous levels,
1168 |1167 |01:42:35 ~-~-> 01:42:39 |the coal miners would know that, because the canary would stop chirping and they
1169 |1168 |01:42:39 ~-~-> 01:42:45 |would be dead. So the Dow was, in my opinion, so far. So it looks like it
1170 |1169 |01:42:45 ~-~-> 01:42:49 |looks like it was the canary in the coal mine this morning saying that it went
1171 |1170 |01:42:49 ~-~-> 01:42:56 |down when the other two averages, the NASDAQ and the ES went up. Es has
1172 |1171 |01:42:56 ~-~-> 01:43:03 |unfinished business here in the form of buy sign. So that's, that's the hold up
1173 |1172 |01:43:03 ~-~-> 01:43:07 |for anything going. Short for me, I want to see it go here, disrupt these
1174 |1173 |01:43:07 ~-~-> 01:43:15 |relative equal highs, and then see how we trade after it does that. And I would
1175 |1174 |01:43:15 ~-~-> 01:43:19 |like to see it move lower sharply after it goes there. I
1176 |1175 |01:43:26 ~-~-> 01:43:32 |So I'm sitting here. I'm waiting for a certain criteria to be met, to frame the
1177 |1176 |01:43:32 ~-~-> 01:43:36 |idea around the narrative I already outlined this morning. We have a few
1178 |1177 |01:43:36 ~-~-> 01:43:43 |clues that that might be in play, but we still have to work through the effects
1179 |1178 |01:43:43 ~-~-> 01:43:50 |of the Chicago PMI. Not that the data itself is moving price. They use these,
1180 |1179 |01:43:50 ~-~-> 01:43:56 |these high impact or medium impact news drivers. They use these as smoke
1181 |1180 |01:43:56 ~-~-> 01:44:00 |screens, basically. So what I'm getting at like it it's easy to justify on the
1182 |1181 |01:44:00 ~-~-> 01:44:05 |news. Oh yeah. The market had a so and so rally to blah, blah, blah because of
1183 |1182 |01:44:05 ~-~-> 01:44:09 |the Chicago PMI number. The market's not reacting off of the number. The market's
1184 |1183 |01:44:09 ~-~-> 01:44:13 |going to go to where it needs to go. In this case, it's going to go to where the
1185 |1184 |01:44:13 ~-~-> 01:44:17 |stops are. But anyone that doesn't think the way I'm teaching to look at the
1186 |1185 |01:44:17 ~-~-> 01:44:23 |market algorithmically, for the purposes of taking liquidity, unseating
1187 |1186 |01:44:23 ~-~-> 01:44:27 |individuals and taking over their position, or knocking them out of their
1188 |1187 |01:44:27 ~-~-> 01:44:33 |profitable position to add more to their longer term profitable trade. That's
1189 |1188 |01:44:33 ~-~-> 01:44:42 |what the market does, and by having that perspective, it in my mind. In my mind,
1190 |1189 |01:44:42 ~-~-> 01:44:47 |it does give me an advantage versus just looking for a pattern, for sake of
1191 |1190 |01:44:48 ~-~-> 01:44:51 |appearing in books. And people say it, it works. Uh, I've lost money on
1192 |1191 |01:44:51 ~-~-> 01:44:58 |patterns, but knowing where the liquidity is the time of day, how this
1193 |1192 |01:44:58 ~-~-> 01:45:05 |entity? It? Analyzes other traders that don't realize that it exists. It's like
1194 |1193 |01:45:05 ~-~-> 01:45:12 |that monster under your bed. It's there. You know it's there, but you're just too
1195 |1194 |01:45:12 ~-~-> 01:45:15 |afraid to bend down and look underneath it or let your foot dangle off the edge
1196 |1195 |01:45:15 ~-~-> 01:45:15 |of the bed. You
1197 |1196 |01:45:29 ~-~-> 01:45:34 |so in 2024 you have been getting a clinic on how to avoid adverse market
1198 |1197 |01:45:34 ~-~-> 01:45:39 |conditions. Markets are moving around, not denying that, but they're moving
1199 |1198 |01:45:39 ~-~-> 01:45:43 |around in a manner where I can be comfortable not being a part of them,
1200 |1199 |01:45:43 ~-~-> 01:45:48 |because it fits the logic that I'm teaching. What happens when these things
1201 |1200 |01:45:48 ~-~-> 01:45:54 |are not in place, in in price, we're active, we're in their trading, we're in
1202 |1201 |01:45:54 ~-~-> 01:45:59 |there taking setups, and we have low stress. We have no anxiety. We have 100%
1203 |1202 |01:46:00 ~-~-> 01:46:05 |trust in what we're looking at, because we don't have these things plaguing it.
1204 |1203 |01:46:06 ~-~-> 01:46:10 |A perfect world, a perfect trade setup, all three averages are going to move
1205 |1204 |01:46:11 ~-~-> 01:46:16 |together. That's Dow Theory. That's the only extent of Dow Theory that I have.
1206 |1205 |01:46:16 ~-~-> 01:46:20 |That's it. I want to see the averages confirm. And I didn't learn that part
1207 |1206 |01:46:21 ~-~-> 01:46:29 |from down theory. I learned that from Georgia and Joe. So that idea of when S
1208 |1207 |01:46:29 ~-~-> 01:46:33 |P is moving higher or lower, because when I first started trading S P, I
1209 |1208 |01:46:33 ~-~-> 01:46:40 |would have the NASDAQ, I would have the Dow, I would have a tick chart, I would
1210 |1209 |01:46:40 ~-~-> 01:46:45 |have a couple other little retail things that are not even important, and I would
1211 |1210 |01:46:45 ~-~-> 01:46:52 |use the idea of all three of the averages needing to move in the same
1212 |1211 |01:46:52 ~-~-> 01:46:59 |direction, if I'm bullish or bearish. And at that time, I was using floor
1213 |1212 |01:46:59 ~-~-> 01:47:04 |pivot numbers, and that was my support and resistance those levels, those
1214 |1213 |01:47:04 ~-~-> 01:47:09 |numbers, and I didn't understand, when I was watching them trade through those
1215 |1214 |01:47:09 ~-~-> 01:47:13 |levels, that there was something else going on. It was going to the liquidity
1216 |1215 |01:47:13 ~-~-> 01:47:17 |that's beyond that floor number. Just because those numbers are calculated on
1217 |1216 |01:47:17 ~-~-> 01:47:21 |the previous dates, hoping high, low and close, you know, it doesn't mean it's
1218 |1217 |01:47:21 ~-~-> 01:47:25 |going to be the low of the day or the high the day or the session, but
1219 |1218 |01:47:25 ~-~-> 01:47:31 |liquidity below an old low or old lows can be the low of the day. Liquidity
1220 |1219 |01:47:31 ~-~-> 01:47:35 |above old high or relative equal highs can be the high of the day. And the
1221 |1220 |01:47:35 ~-~-> 01:47:39 |pivot number is just a suggestion of where it might reach for it's like a
1222 |1221 |01:47:40 ~-~-> 01:47:43 |it's like a draw on liquidity, but it's never, ever to be viewed as a terminus
1223 |1222 |01:47:43 ~-~-> 01:47:47 |level, where it's this is it. It's never going to go beyond that. That's the
1224 |1223 |01:47:47 ~-~-> 01:47:51 |mistake I I found I was making. And I think every other trader that uses floor
1225 |1224 |01:47:51 ~-~-> 01:47:56 |numbers and pivot numbers, they they use them as a panacea, like nothing's a
1226 |1225 |01:47:56 ~-~-> 01:48:00 |panacea. Literally nothing in trading is a panacea. There's no be all, end, all
1227 |1226 |01:48:00 ~-~-> 01:48:03 |ends. Everything is it answers all questions. Because if anything like that
1228 |1227 |01:48:03 ~-~-> 01:48:07 |existed, number one, I can tell you honestly, I would never teach that, and
1229 |1228 |01:48:07 ~-~-> 01:48:12 |nobody else would either. So stop looking for it, because nobody, no one's
1230 |1229 |01:48:12 ~-~-> 01:48:14 |going to share that with you, and they're never going to sell it either,
1231 |1230 |01:48:14 ~-~-> 01:48:17 |even if it is an expensive amount of money, because they could sell things
1232 |1231 |01:48:17 ~-~-> 01:48:23 |for $5,000 even though it's for free on YouTube, if they believe it was exactly
1233 |1232 |01:48:23 ~-~-> 01:48:27 |what they try to market it as they would never sell it. They would just simply
1234 |1233 |01:48:27 ~-~-> 01:48:33 |use it because that, that edge would diminish. Well, the reason why I can
1235 |1234 |01:48:33 ~-~-> 01:48:38 |teach this is because this is the market. It's the lifeblood of markets,
1236 |1235 |01:48:38 ~-~-> 01:48:43 |time and price and liquidity. If it ain't liquidity, it's inefficiencies.
1237 |1236 |01:48:43 ~-~-> 01:48:47 |And that's always going to be the game. It's never going to be anything. But
1238 |1237 |01:48:47 ~-~-> 01:48:54 |that looks like we could make a attempt to get up here finally work those levels
1239 |1238 |01:48:54 ~-~-> 01:49:00 |out. Got 37 and a half minutes where Caleb could still find the setup.
1240 |1239 |01:49:12 ~-~-> 01:49:19 |Quick, look at that real quick. Yeah, still ugly. I
1241 |1240 |01:49:25 ~-~-> 01:49:31 |Okay, see, see what it's doing. It's just hanging around. I like that. I like
1242 |1241 |01:49:31 ~-~-> 01:49:37 |this. To me. I view this as it's it's got to look like it's trying to be
1243 |1242 |01:49:37 ~-~-> 01:49:44 |bullish, to allow ES to do its damage on those relative equal highs. That's
1244 |1243 |01:49:44 ~-~-> 01:49:48 |That's how I see this. This right here, just It's ugly. It's really, really
1245 |1244 |01:49:48 ~-~-> 01:49:51 |ugly. That's exactly what I was telling you. Said it's going to hang around in,
1246 |1245 |01:49:51 ~-~-> 01:49:54 |like this bull flag type formation, where people are going to want to see it
1247 |1246 |01:49:54 ~-~-> 01:49:57 |go higher. They want this to break out to the upside. Retail traders want to
1248 |1247 |01:49:57 ~-~-> 01:50:01 |buy this. They want to be long in this, especially after. Seen all this shit. So
1249 |1248 |01:50:01 ~-~-> 01:50:08 |by having es with its unfinished business up here, here's what's
1250 |1249 |01:50:08 ~-~-> 01:50:13 |happening. Phil's watching my live stream this morning, and he's like, I'm
1251 |1250 |01:50:13 ~-~-> 01:50:17 |gonna fuck with you today. ICT, we're gonna sit here and just hammer that
1252 |1251 |01:50:17 ~-~-> 01:50:21 |hammer, that hammer. That's okay. It's okay. I'm still gonna make money today.
1253 |1252 |01:50:21 ~-~-> 01:50:25 |I'm still gonna make money today. Don't have it. Don't have to be in this
1254 |1253 |01:50:25 ~-~-> 01:50:32 |stream, bro. But we're waiting for the green light after the buy side's taken
1255 |1254 |01:50:32 ~-~-> 01:50:40 |here. I it now.
1256 |1255 |01:51:00 ~-~-> 01:51:06 |Let me ask you a question. If you were say you went long, okay, say you were
1257 |1256 |01:51:06 ~-~-> 01:51:11 |long in here, somewhere in this area, or maybe you use this inefficiency here,
1258 |1257 |01:51:12 ~-~-> 01:51:17 |how would you feel with way the market is trading right here? Would you feel
1259 |1258 |01:51:17 ~-~-> 01:51:21 |uncomfortable? Would you feel like you're comfortably going to submit to
1260 |1259 |01:51:21 ~-~-> 01:51:25 |eventually break into the upside, to get these relative equal highs. And would
1261 |1260 |01:51:25 ~-~-> 01:51:30 |you expect that to continue if it goes up here and keep moving higher, or are
1262 |1261 |01:51:30 ~-~-> 01:51:37 |you trying to just get out and be done with it here? Because Admittedly, I
1263 |1262 |01:51:37 ~-~-> 01:51:42 |would be a little uncomfortable with the amount of time it's spending in here,
1264 |1263 |01:51:46 ~-~-> 01:51:51 |because it could very well do what we saw a couple weeks ago, the same thing
1265 |1264 |01:51:51 ~-~-> 01:51:59 |with NASDAQ. It would fit the underlying idea about if it's going to drop for
1266 |1265 |01:51:59 ~-~-> 01:52:03 |NASDAQ to go down to that weekly inefficiency by them leaving this area
1267 |1266 |01:52:03 ~-~-> 01:52:07 |up here smooth like that, because it doesn't have to go up there and do that.
1268 |1267 |01:52:07 ~-~-> 01:52:10 |I just wanted to do that. And then that would give me confidence. If it starts
1269 |1268 |01:52:10 ~-~-> 01:52:13 |to break down, then we can take our attention over here, for sell side, for
1270 |1269 |01:52:13 ~-~-> 01:52:21 |ES and then, more specifically, what we were looking for, for NASDAQ. And down
1271 |1270 |01:52:21 ~-~-> 01:52:30 |here, right there. So while it's up here, retail traders are not thinking
1272 |1271 |01:52:30 ~-~-> 01:52:35 |anything down here is it's completely outside their radar. They're not linked.
1273 |1272 |01:52:35 ~-~-> 01:52:38 |They're not even thinking about it. They don't think it's it's even possible.
1274 |1273 |01:52:39 ~-~-> 01:52:44 |They're looking for continuation to the upside, small little gap here,
1275 |1274 |01:52:50 ~-~-> 01:52:51 |yes,
1276 |1275 |01:52:58 ~-~-> 01:53:03 |now you've learned again, something new today. I've taught this already. It's
1277 |1276 |01:53:03 ~-~-> 01:53:11 |uncor mentorship on a YouTube channel. If you look at 2016 2017 private
1278 |1277 |01:53:11 ~-~-> 01:53:15 |mentorship, that's my paid mentorship lectures. And there are people,
1279 |1278 |01:53:15 ~-~-> 01:53:21 |literally, on Instagram, on YouTube, on Twitter, everywhere, trying to sell
1280 |1279 |01:53:21 ~-~-> 01:53:24 |those same videos for free. They're on my YouTube channel, but they're trying
1281 |1280 |01:53:24 ~-~-> 01:53:27 |to sell them to you, they'll be a stupid ass go to the YouTube channel and watch
1282 |1281 |01:53:27 ~-~-> 01:53:38 |it for free. But I taught decoupling in the in the core content lessons. And the
1283 |1282 |01:53:38 ~-~-> 01:53:43 |same thing with Forex. So if you're watching Forex or trading Forex, if
1284 |1283 |01:53:43 ~-~-> 01:53:48 |you're trading up Euro dollar, or you're trading POUND DOLLAR, if you're bullish
1285 |1284 |01:53:48 ~-~-> 01:53:52 |on POUND DOLLAR, you should see in a symmetrical market, Eurodollar be
1286 |1285 |01:53:52 ~-~-> 01:53:57 |bullish and dollar be bearish. That's a symmetrical triad, like you have to have
1287 |1286 |01:53:57 ~-~-> 01:54:02 |three things in forex. It's not just a one type thing. Can you trade profitably
1288 |1287 |01:54:02 ~-~-> 01:54:06 |with just watching one pair and nothing else? Yes, if you're a price action
1289 |1288 |01:54:06 ~-~-> 01:54:11 |trader, but to get a full panoramic view of what price is doing and how it should
1290 |1289 |01:54:11 ~-~-> 01:54:15 |be viewed as high probability or low probability in forex, you want to have a
1291 |1290 |01:54:15 ~-~-> 01:54:20 |correlated pair, positively correlated, meaning your dollar is positively
1292 |1291 |01:54:20 ~-~-> 01:54:24 |correlated to euro dollar. They usually move in sympathy. One or that one goes
1293 |1292 |01:54:24 ~-~-> 01:54:28 |up, the other one usually goes up, not all the time, but generally they do. And
1294 |1293 |01:54:28 ~-~-> 01:54:32 |if that's occurring, if both are moving up, the dollar index better be moving
1295 |1294 |01:54:32 ~-~-> 01:54:36 |down. That's a symmetrical market. There are instances where the POUND DOLLAR
1296 |1295 |01:54:36 ~-~-> 01:54:42 |going up, Euro dollar going down, and dollar sitting still. And that's going
1297 |1296 |01:54:42 ~-~-> 01:54:48 |to be a Euro pound short because it's it's a break. Let me make sure I said
1298 |1297 |01:54:48 ~-~-> 01:54:54 |that right. Dollar sitting still, POUND DOLLAR going up. Euro dollar going down.
1299 |1298 |01:54:55 ~-~-> 01:55:01 |Yeah, that's going to be a Euro pound short if. If the dollar index is
1300 |1299 |01:55:01 ~-~-> 01:55:04 |consolidating, that means that your crosses without the dollar in them,
1301 |1300 |01:55:05 ~-~-> 01:55:09 |closely correlated pairs are going to be paired together, like to make a cross,
1302 |1301 |01:55:09 ~-~-> 01:55:15 |like Euro pound, that will make them go up and the dollar will just sit still.
1303 |1302 |01:55:15 ~-~-> 01:55:22 |So, you know, in reality, forex is a lot more complicated to teach than index
1304 |1303 |01:55:22 ~-~-> 01:55:26 |futures, and index futures is a better market to trade because everybody has
1305 |1304 |01:55:26 ~-~-> 01:55:30 |the same price. You don't get the same tomfoolery with brokers, where they can
1306 |1305 |01:55:30 ~-~-> 01:55:34 |give you a different high, a different low, the spread can widen and take your
1307 |1306 |01:55:34 ~-~-> 01:55:39 |stop, but everybody else's broker firm didn't get that same price. So you're
1308 |1307 |01:55:39 ~-~-> 01:55:46 |asking to lose money there, like you, you're asking to lose money. So in
1309 |1308 |01:55:46 ~-~-> 01:55:50 |futures, it's a lot, a lot more level playing field. And even though there are
1310 |1309 |01:55:50 ~-~-> 01:55:55 |some things like we have here today, you're learning the very things that
1311 |1310 |01:55:55 ~-~-> 01:56:00 |prevents me from showing you these enormous lists of losing trades, because
1312 |1311 |01:56:00 ~-~-> 01:56:04 |I can, I can recognize these things. And it's the logic that repeats in the
1313 |1312 |01:56:04 ~-~-> 01:56:07 |lectures I've already given out in the core content lessons on this YouTube
1314 |1313 |01:56:08 ~-~-> 01:56:14 |channel. If you know how you're going to lose money, if you can recognize the
1315 |1314 |01:56:14 ~-~-> 01:56:19 |conditions, that's going to be more difficult than it should be, doesn't it
1316 |1315 |01:56:19 ~-~-> 01:56:24 |make sense for you not to take trades yet and wait for the that movement in
1317 |1316 |01:56:24 ~-~-> 01:56:30 |your favor where it's obvious, so where it's at right now, that volume of
1318 |1317 |01:56:30 ~-~-> 01:56:34 |balance that should be the end of it. If it's going to go up there, it should be
1319 |1318 |01:56:34 ~-~-> 01:56:37 |done here, and it should start to move up. If not, it's going to break below
1320 |1319 |01:56:37 ~-~-> 01:56:44 |here, and then we'll start seeing the NASDAQ move in sympathy with that of the
1321 |1320 |01:56:44 ~-~-> 01:56:50 |Dow. Look at the Dow. This is staying down on its lows. So whenever you see
1322 |1321 |01:56:52 ~-~-> 01:56:59 |this decoupling, every price run if whether you're trading the ES or if
1323 |1322 |01:56:59 ~-~-> 01:57:03 |you're trading the NASDAQ, I guess, for the folks that are just nuts and want to
1324 |1323 |01:57:03 ~-~-> 01:57:07 |trade at 3030, if you want to trade this, in this industry here the Dow,
1325 |1324 |01:57:09 ~-~-> 01:57:13 |look what it's doing. Would you want to trade this when the NASDAQ and the SMP
1326 |1325 |01:57:13 ~-~-> 01:57:18 |are going up? So I'm kind of give you the the Flipped perspective of it. Say
1327 |1326 |01:57:18 ~-~-> 01:57:22 |you are predominantly a Dow trader. Would you want to be trading this
1328 |1327 |01:57:22 ~-~-> 01:57:28 |indicee, if it's doing this against the two higher composite indices, which is
1329 |1328 |01:57:28 ~-~-> 01:57:32 |the NASDAQ, which uses 100 stocks to make that composite index, and then you
1330 |1329 |01:57:32 ~-~-> 01:57:36 |have the S, p5, 100, which uses 500 individual stocks to make up its
1331 |1330 |01:57:36 ~-~-> 01:57:41 |composite so if both of those are going higher, and this one's going down lower.
1332 |1331 |01:57:43 ~-~-> 01:57:48 |What does that mean for you as a Dow trader? It's still decoupled, right? So
1333 |1332 |01:57:48 ~-~-> 01:57:51 |they should be moving in agreement and sympathy one another. They all three
1334 |1333 |01:57:51 ~-~-> 01:57:54 |should be going up if they're bullish, and all three should be moving down when
1335 |1334 |01:57:54 ~-~-> 01:57:58 |they're bearish. If there is ever a time when that is not true, like we see here
1336 |1335 |01:57:58 ~-~-> 01:58:02 |this morning, that is a sit still and wait. You have plenty of time the rest
1337 |1336 |01:58:02 ~-~-> 01:58:07 |of the day. You have plenty of time. You still have the the PAL speech later
1338 |1337 |01:58:07 ~-~-> 01:58:15 |today, which is inviting this very event here, decoupling. A lot of people don't.
1339 |1338 |01:58:15 ~-~-> 01:58:19 |There's not a lot of big money movement right now. They're just moving price
1340 |1339 |01:58:19 ~-~-> 01:58:25 |around after pal done talking, 15 minutes after that, you're going to see
1341 |1340 |01:58:25 ~-~-> 01:58:31 |very nice, clean price action. But are you willing to wait for that? Most
1342 |1341 |01:58:31 ~-~-> 01:58:31 |people aren't.
1343 |1342 |01:58:36 ~-~-> 01:58:37 |Okay.
1344 |1343 |01:58:37 ~-~-> 01:58:40 |Let me overshot that volume balances by a little bit into a gap here.
1345 |1344 |01:58:50 ~-~-> 01:58:55 |So are you watching any other live streamers besides me? Are they
1346 |1345 |01:58:55 ~-~-> 01:58:59 |complaining about the ugliness of the price action yet? I'm sitting here
1347 |1346 |01:58:59 ~-~-> 01:59:04 |sipping some water, smiling, thinking, none of this is a surprise.
1348 |1347 |01:59:09 ~-~-> 01:59:20 |I'm not surprised Nate Diaz, so like I said, it gets down to that volume
1349 |1348 |01:59:20 ~-~-> 01:59:25 |imbalance that should have been have started to rotate higher if it's going
1350 |1349 |01:59:25 ~-~-> 01:59:28 |to go up for that buy side. That was the time for it to do so. So far, it's it's
1351 |1350 |01:59:28 ~-~-> 01:59:33 |indicating that it could not that it will. Yet, I'm more interested in once
1352 |1351 |01:59:33 ~-~-> 01:59:40 |we get there, once we get into this area here, does it hold does it stay there
1353 |1352 |01:59:40 ~-~-> 01:59:45 |and go higher? Or does it go there, spend a little bit of time, which is
1354 |1353 |01:59:45 ~-~-> 01:59:48 |reasonable, and then start to break down? Because that means that they went
1355 |1354 |01:59:48 ~-~-> 01:59:53 |out there to accumulate those buy stops, and now they've unseated anyone that was
1356 |1355 |01:59:53 ~-~-> 02:00:00 |probably short, and any movement lower, they're on board with the targets. And
1357 |1356 |02:00:00 ~-~-> 02:00:03 |things I've outlined at the beginning of pre market analysis. So far, there's
1358 |1357 |02:00:03 ~-~-> 02:00:10 |literally nothing in here that I would be long on, not one thing, not that
1359 |1358 |02:00:10 ~-~-> 02:00:14 |there ain't setups there, there are, but there would not be any of them with my
1360 |1359 |02:00:14 ~-~-> 02:00:21 |money behind it. And you'll get that, and you understand that when you can see
1361 |1360 |02:00:21 ~-~-> 02:00:30 |setups that are on multiple time frames, multi directional, you can be a buyer
1362 |1361 |02:00:30 ~-~-> 02:00:35 |and seller in the same day just because you can see them there, just because you
1363 |1362 |02:00:35 ~-~-> 02:00:38 |anticipate them panning out, just because you can frame a stop loss,
1364 |1363 |02:00:38 ~-~-> 02:00:46 |that's reasonable, if it goes against your analysis, and you're waiting for
1365 |1364 |02:00:46 ~-~-> 02:00:50 |your setup, why would you be impulsive and try to do something and prove that
1366 |1365 |02:00:50 ~-~-> 02:00:56 |you're not patient, that you are impulsive, it goes against the entire
1367 |1366 |02:00:56 ~-~-> 02:01:01 |grain of what makes a profitable, consistently profitable trader in the
1368 |1367 |02:01:01 ~-~-> 02:01:04 |mindset that they hold. You have to have a you have to have control over
1369 |1368 |02:01:04 ~-~-> 02:01:10 |yourself. You have to have a discipline to stick to. If you've done the work and
1370 |1369 |02:01:10 ~-~-> 02:01:15 |the analysis, then wait for the setup to come to you, and everything else that's
1371 |1370 |02:01:15 ~-~-> 02:01:18 |going on outside of that should have absolutely no effect on you. You
1372 |1371 |02:01:18 ~-~-> 02:01:21 |shouldn't be losing your mind over it. Shouldn't be panicked about it. You
1373 |1372 |02:01:21 ~-~-> 02:01:24 |shouldn't be. I'm afraid it's going to go other direction. What if it rallies
1374 |1373 |02:01:24 ~-~-> 02:01:32 |250 points? So what it's Monday. 250 points is nothing. You literally have to
1375 |1374 |02:01:32 ~-~-> 02:01:39 |stop making every next trade decision the pentacle of your career. Because
1376 |1375 |02:01:39 ~-~-> 02:01:43 |when you when you do that, you're actually creating the exit ramp for your
1377 |1376 |02:01:43 ~-~-> 02:01:47 |career, or at least for that account. You're probably going to blow it because
1378 |1377 |02:01:47 ~-~-> 02:01:52 |you're placing too much emphasis on having to do something. I'm watching the
1379 |1378 |02:01:52 ~-~-> 02:02:00 |bodies in here in respect to this gap in here. Very, very, very content with the
1380 |1379 |02:02:01 ~-~-> 02:02:13 |sideline right now. The job is real. He should make T shirts, man, he could make
1381 |1380 |02:02:13 ~-~-> 02:02:15 |money on that you see me making somehow, I
1382 |1381 |02:02:24 ~-~-> 02:02:31 |look at that. That gap I was telling you there, boom, and that's gonna take a
1383 |1382 |02:02:31 ~-~-> 02:02:32 |look at that real quick,
1384 |1383 |02:02:38 ~-~-> 02:02:44 |pulling up into its gap, right there. It's a little smooth. I guess on the
1385 |1384 |02:02:44 ~-~-> 02:02:53 |upside in it, they might want to pop that with ES, but you can see how much
1386 |1385 |02:02:53 ~-~-> 02:02:58 |more complicated this is a complex market to trade in this morning, because
1387 |1386 |02:02:58 ~-~-> 02:03:04 |you have each in the indicee doing its own thing, and it's real hard to frame
1388 |1387 |02:03:04 ~-~-> 02:03:10 |low risk in that environment. You can see what it's likely to do. But is it
1389 |1388 |02:03:10 ~-~-> 02:03:15 |worth putting your money? Putting your money behind it? Not for me. You're
1390 |1389 |02:03:15 ~-~-> 02:03:18 |walking to do what you want to do, take your pick your wins and go on social
1391 |1390 |02:03:18 ~-~-> 02:03:23 |media and get your trophies and stuff. But yeah, not me. I'd rather sit here
1392 |1391 |02:03:23 ~-~-> 02:03:28 |and prove that I have discipline over myself, that I'm going to stick to the
1393 |1392 |02:03:28 ~-~-> 02:03:33 |tools that I trade and authored, and I'm going to let the setups come to me, and
1394 |1393 |02:03:33 ~-~-> 02:03:36 |if it runs without me, it's okay. I'm good enough to know that I'm going to be
1395 |1394 |02:03:36 ~-~-> 02:03:39 |able to find this up in the afternoon. I'm good enough to know that I can trade
1396 |1395 |02:03:39 ~-~-> 02:03:42 |that last hour and make whatever I need to make in a job in a month I can make
1397 |1396 |02:03:42 ~-~-> 02:03:47 |that in in the last hour trading. That's the confidence. But that sounds like
1398 |1397 |02:03:47 ~-~-> 02:03:52 |arrogance. It sounds like it's bullshit, because you all that think that way
1399 |1398 |02:03:53 ~-~-> 02:03:59 |can't do it. So you think nobody can. And that's not true. If you just stop
1400 |1399 |02:03:59 ~-~-> 02:04:03 |thinking critically like that, and just try to learn you can be able to do it
1401 |1400 |02:04:03 ~-~-> 02:04:06 |too. And you'll think, wow, I used to troll you too. ICT, but now look at this
1402 |1401 |02:04:07 ~-~-> 02:04:13 |good welcome. Alright, so we're inside the new week opening gap here. It's also
1403 |1402 |02:04:13 ~-~-> 02:04:17 |constant encroachment of the opening range gap that's at that yellow box is
1404 |1403 |02:04:18 ~-~-> 02:04:25 |so in a perfect world, it would want to drive into this cell side here, this
1405 |1404 |02:04:25 ~-~-> 02:04:28 |gap, as it was trading up into that I was telling you, watch that gap right
1406 |1405 |02:04:28 ~-~-> 02:04:37 |there. And she was very, very useful there. It's very close to the high of
1407 |1406 |02:04:37 ~-~-> 02:04:41 |the imbalance that's shaded in purple, or whatever shade that closes the curve
1408 |1407 |02:04:41 ~-~-> 02:04:42 |is here. I'm.
1409 |1408 |02:05:12 ~-~-> 02:05:18 |Now in that yellow box, what can happen, and I would like to see happen, is for
1410 |1409 |02:05:18 ~-~-> 02:05:23 |it to drop down, stay inside this red box, come back up and touch the bottom
1411 |1410 |02:05:23 ~-~-> 02:05:27 |of the yellow box. And if it leaves that volume of balance, come back up and
1412 |1411 |02:05:27 ~-~-> 02:05:31 |reprice to that volume of balance between this candles here and here, hit
1413 |1412 |02:05:31 ~-~-> 02:05:35 |that and then rotate lower. But it may not do that. Maybe just just take off
1414 |1413 |02:05:35 ~-~-> 02:05:38 |from either way. It's fine. I told you I wanted to see it go to here, but I'd
1415 |1414 |02:05:38 ~-~-> 02:05:44 |like to see it use the opening range, gap low that this yellow box represents.
1416 |1415 |02:05:44 ~-~-> 02:05:44 |I don't
1417 |1416 |02:05:58 ~-~-> 02:06:03 |want to see it deliver like that, though. It needs to be a separate
1418 |1417 |02:06:03 ~-~-> 02:06:07 |candle. In other words, if the candle would have been down here and stopped
1419 |1418 |02:06:07 ~-~-> 02:06:13 |and created a new candle and trade up to it any type of return back to a premium
1420 |1419 |02:06:13 ~-~-> 02:06:17 |array you want to see it do that you don't want to look at it on the same
1421 |1420 |02:06:17 ~-~-> 02:06:21 |candlestick where it moves away from the PD array and comes back to it and saying
1422 |1421 |02:06:21 ~-~-> 02:06:24 |that that's never what you want to see. That's never, ever, ever a point of
1423 |1422 |02:06:24 ~-~-> 02:06:30 |entry for you to use it like that. It needs to create a new candlestick and
1424 |1423 |02:06:30 ~-~-> 02:06:36 |trade up into it, then expect it to roll over. This is what you get by just
1425 |1424 |02:06:36 ~-~-> 02:06:41 |reaching these little lows here, back inside the opening range. So take a
1426 |1425 |02:06:41 ~-~-> 02:06:46 |quick look at es once more. This is the benefit of having multiple screens, by
1427 |1426 |02:06:46 ~-~-> 02:06:51 |the way, or dividing your screen. But I want to keep you know one big chart on
1428 |1427 |02:06:51 ~-~-> 02:06:57 |the screen as I talk, my eyes are a little bit fatigued when I'm done doing
1429 |1428 |02:06:57 ~-~-> 02:07:02 |these live streams, when we're doing two screens and I'm squinting, I gotta, I
1430 |1429 |02:07:02 ~-~-> 02:07:05 |gotta protect my eyes. As much as I want to teach it, I'd still have to take care
1431 |1430 |02:07:05 ~-~-> 02:07:16 |of my eyes. So imagine you're an ES trader. How you feeling right now? You
1432 |1431 |02:07:16 ~-~-> 02:07:19 |feel confident? Are you? Are you confident about your short? Are you
1433 |1432 |02:07:19 ~-~-> 02:07:22 |confident about your long? Are you confident that you made the right
1434 |1433 |02:07:22 ~-~-> 02:07:26 |decision by sitting still? Are you regretting that you did anything yet? Or
1435 |1434 |02:07:26 ~-~-> 02:07:30 |did you chop yourself up already because the market didn't chop you up? You
1436 |1435 |02:07:30 ~-~-> 02:07:30 |chopped yourself,
1437 |1436 |02:07:41 ~-~-> 02:07:45 |telling you, man, if I would have had someone telling me where the market is
1438 |1437 |02:07:45 ~-~-> 02:07:50 |going to create these high resistance liquidity runs, how they were going to
1439 |1438 |02:07:50 ~-~-> 02:07:54 |create these conditions that were going to be problematic to me trading, I would
1440 |1439 |02:07:54 ~-~-> 02:07:59 |be grateful for that, because I would have been looking For instances where,
1441 |1440 |02:08:00 ~-~-> 02:08:03 |where I blew my accounts. Right. Hold on one second I
1442 |1441 |02:09:02 ~-~-> 02:09:09 |sorry about that. My wife's just got back dogs that were beaten. But as I was
1443 |1442 |02:09:09 ~-~-> 02:09:14 |saying, I would want to see I want to see someone explain when I was 20 years
1444 |1443 |02:09:14 ~-~-> 02:09:18 |old, how to avoid when the market's hard. Because I thought every day was a
1445 |1444 |02:09:18 ~-~-> 02:09:24 |trading opportunity, and I didn't think that there'd be times where there's not
1446 |1445 |02:09:25 ~-~-> 02:09:28 |all the advantages that should be afforded to a trader. Like I thought
1447 |1446 |02:09:28 ~-~-> 02:09:31 |that I just didn't know enough, and everything that's going on in price
1448 |1447 |02:09:31 ~-~-> 02:09:36 |action was an opportunity for someone to take a trade on and they they could be
1449 |1448 |02:09:36 ~-~-> 02:09:40 |profitable every day. That that's the belief I had. And I found that that I
1450 |1449 |02:09:40 ~-~-> 02:09:43 |was losing a lot because I didn't understand these types of conditions
1451 |1450 |02:09:43 ~-~-> 02:09:46 |where we have decoupling. Now think about what you've learned so far this
1452 |1451 |02:09:46 ~-~-> 02:09:51 |year, and just in the last eight weeks, you've learned how to identify high
1453 |1452 |02:09:51 ~-~-> 02:09:55 |resistance liquidity profiles. You've learned about seek and destroy and how
1454 |1453 |02:09:55 ~-~-> 02:10:00 |to anticipate them and see what it looks like real time to identify it. You. Seen
1455 |1454 |02:10:00 ~-~-> 02:10:06 |an episode here now with decoupling. And how do we anticipate decoupling whenever
1456 |1455 |02:10:06 ~-~-> 02:10:13 |there's a Fed Chair speech, FOMC, those types of things cause decoupling.
1457 |1456 |02:10:14 ~-~-> 02:10:18 |Everything just unravels. And that's why you have to wait 15 minutes after he's
1458 |1457 |02:10:18 ~-~-> 02:10:22 |done talking this to allow for things to try to get back in sync. And they may
1459 |1458 |02:10:22 ~-~-> 02:10:26 |not get in sync in the first 15 minutes after he's done talking, did you? But
1460 |1459 |02:10:26 ~-~-> 02:10:30 |you wait until they do. If you, if you don't see that, you sit on your hands,
1461 |1460 |02:10:30 ~-~-> 02:10:37 |and you don't feel bad about it, you don't regret it. Yes, it gives you a
1462 |1461 |02:10:37 ~-~-> 02:10:44 |peace of mind, milk of it. Yes, that's, oh, that would make me mad if I was in
1463 |1462 |02:10:44 ~-~-> 02:10:51 |that man, like, come on, what are you doing to me? And NASDAQ is rolling back
1464 |1463 |02:10:51 ~-~-> 02:10:56 |down outside of the opening range gap. So same thing I was outlining here. I'd
1465 |1464 |02:10:56 ~-~-> 02:11:01 |like to see it trade down in the lower portion of that pink box, create a new
1466 |1465 |02:11:01 ~-~-> 02:11:05 |candle without leaving or going below this low here, create a new candlestick,
1467 |1466 |02:11:05 ~-~-> 02:11:11 |come up and trade up into the low and or the lower quadrant of this yellow box,
1468 |1467 |02:11:11 ~-~-> 02:11:15 |because we went back up and did what traded back into the new week opening
1469 |1468 |02:11:15 ~-~-> 02:11:18 |gap repriced to the volume and bounce rate in here between these two candles
1470 |1469 |02:11:18 ~-~-> 02:11:23 |bodies in here. So the only market that's doing. What we would want to see
1471 |1470 |02:11:23 ~-~-> 02:11:30 |happen in price action is the NASDAQ. You see that. So the symmetry in the
1472 |1471 |02:11:30 ~-~-> 02:11:36 |market as a whole is broken, but we are able to see price cleaner on this one,
1473 |1472 |02:11:36 ~-~-> 02:11:39 |then we can see it on the Dow and or the ES. You
1474 |1473 |02:11:50 ~-~-> 02:11:53 |that's just as good. Coming up didn't, didn't quite get to it. So by not
1475 |1474 |02:11:53 ~-~-> 02:11:57 |trading back to the opening range, gap low, breaking down like this, for the
1476 |1475 |02:11:57 ~-~-> 02:12:00 |sell side, that's actually weak, that's good. You want to see that, but
1477 |1476 |02:12:00 ~-~-> 02:12:04 |affording yourself the opportunity to do this very thing here, that's that's
1478 |1477 |02:12:04 ~-~-> 02:12:04 |good,
1479 |1478 |02:12:10 ~-~-> 02:12:14 |and see if we can
1480 |1479 |02:12:15 ~-~-> 02:12:18 |rush down below these lows and accelerate, not just go below it and
1481 |1480 |02:12:18 ~-~-> 02:12:21 |come back up into the Opening range gap. We don't see that.
1482 |1481 |02:12:40 ~-~-> 02:12:45 |Knowing when to sit still, that is an art that you all should master, because
1483 |1482 |02:12:46 ~-~-> 02:12:50 |it's these days where you're going to lose money, and you won't realize it
1484 |1483 |02:12:50 ~-~-> 02:12:54 |until after the day ends, and you look at it like, Man, I wish I would have
1485 |1484 |02:12:54 ~-~-> 02:12:57 |stopped trading great when I felt like it was getting too hard, it was getting
1486 |1485 |02:12:57 ~-~-> 02:13:05 |messy, or You all call it choppy. Now you're learning how to see it real time,
1487 |1486 |02:13:05 ~-~-> 02:13:09 |so that way you can sit still and behave. Don't act like a fool and get
1488 |1487 |02:13:09 ~-~-> 02:13:12 |there and just try to do something, because you have time to in front of the
1489 |1488 |02:13:12 ~-~-> 02:13:17 |charts, exercise and control over yourself, knowing what you're looking
1490 |1489 |02:13:17 ~-~-> 02:13:22 |for. If it doesn't come to you, don't do anything. Don't anticipate the setup and
1491 |1490 |02:13:22 ~-~-> 02:13:26 |enter before the setup is there. Anticipate the setup and when it comes,
1492 |1491 |02:13:26 ~-~-> 02:13:30 |then pounce on it. You're not reacting. You're anticipating it. But if the
1493 |1492 |02:13:30 ~-~-> 02:13:35 |market's presenting opportunities that are far less likely because the symmetry
1494 |1493 |02:13:35 ~-~-> 02:13:38 |is not there, that means all three indices are doing an independent thing.
1495 |1494 |02:13:39 ~-~-> 02:13:43 |Well, that's never a market environment where you should be using high risk and
1496 |1495 |02:13:43 ~-~-> 02:13:50 |or forcing. I gotta get into a trade. You don't need to feel that way. Now,
1497 |1496 |02:13:50 ~-~-> 02:13:53 |again, I don't want to see it just go below these relative equal lows. I don't
1498 |1497 |02:13:53 ~-~-> 02:13:57 |want to see it go down a little bit and then come right back up into this yellow
1499 |1498 |02:13:57 ~-~-> 02:14:13 |box. That's not something I want to see. I oops, beautiful, innit, beautiful,
1500 |1499 |02:14:13 ~-~-> 02:14:14 |almost like a thumb,
1501 |1500 |02:14:16 ~-~-> 02:14:17 |useless.
1502 |1501 |02:14:20 ~-~-> 02:14:24 |There's that gap still in play. Let's see if they want to jump up there and
1503 |1502 |02:14:24 ~-~-> 02:14:31 |get that little area there, somewhat of a, somewhat of a breaker, I'm telling
1504 |1503 |02:14:31 ~-~-> 02:14:37 |you, you couldn't, you couldn't pay me extra to trade the Dow. It's just an
1505 |1504 |02:14:37 ~-~-> 02:14:43 |ugly indices. I can't stand it. I've made money with it, but I've lost more
1506 |1505 |02:14:43 ~-~-> 02:14:49 |money trading down than either of the three indices because of this. It just
1507 |1506 |02:14:50 ~-~-> 02:14:56 |does some squirrely stuff that I just don't like it, alright? So NASDAQ should
1508 |1507 |02:14:56 ~-~-> 02:15:00 |get some movement lower. So we're leaving. There's three. Eyes up there in
1509 |1508 |02:15:00 ~-~-> 02:15:06 |ES. So that bolsters the idea of, if NASDAQ can get down to where we were
1510 |1509 |02:15:06 ~-~-> 02:15:10 |outlined this morning, they might be onboarding longs there then come up
1511 |1510 |02:15:10 ~-~-> 02:15:19 |higher later on, not necessarily today, but later on we did might be revisited.
1512 |1511 |02:15:22 ~-~-> 02:15:25 |So not bad.
1513 |1512 |02:15:29 ~-~-> 02:15:33 |The key takeaway Caleb so far is we were able to see that that that gap right
1514 |1513 |02:15:33 ~-~-> 02:15:39 |there could be used. And we've been framing the idea that we want to see
1515 |1514 |02:15:39 ~-~-> 02:15:47 |NASDAQ go down, not go up. So we've seen the market trade lower. We had a swing
1516 |1515 |02:15:47 ~-~-> 02:15:52 |low in here that was pierced there. So you have a shift in market structure.
1517 |1516 |02:15:52 ~-~-> 02:15:55 |Fair value gap trades up into it beautifully. We were calling the fair
1518 |1517 |02:15:55 ~-~-> 02:15:58 |value gap before it traded up there. So I said, watch it. You'll see it in the
1519 |1518 |02:15:58 ~-~-> 02:16:02 |stream. You'll be able to rewind it. In fact, you probably still should be able
1520 |1519 |02:16:02 ~-~-> 02:16:04 |to rewind it now. But rewind it now, but you shouldn't be rewinding anything
1521 |1520 |02:16:05 ~-~-> 02:16:08 |while I'm talking because you're going to lose some kind of information that
1522 |1521 |02:16:08 ~-~-> 02:16:16 |I'm talking about live. But then we delivered nicely off of that, and then
1523 |1522 |02:16:17 ~-~-> 02:16:21 |we traded down to half of the first presented fair value got, which is this
1524 |1523 |02:16:21 ~-~-> 02:16:29 |candlestick here. So in In fairness, it looks like this. And again, this is why
1525 |1524 |02:16:29 ~-~-> 02:16:32 |I don't draw everything on the chart that I'm referring to. Because look how
1526 |1525 |02:16:32 ~-~-> 02:16:37 |much, look how much is are we on the chart? It makes it complicated if I do
1527 |1526 |02:16:37 ~-~-> 02:16:42 |it this way, but I have to draw them, so that way you can see what my eye is
1528 |1527 |02:16:42 ~-~-> 02:16:47 |keyed up on, and I'm looking at it in this perspective. But I don't need it to
1529 |1528 |02:16:47 ~-~-> 02:16:50 |be on the chart, you know. I'll show you what I mean by that. This candle sticks
1530 |1529 |02:16:50 ~-~-> 02:16:58 |low, and the down closed candle. Here's i that is this shaded area here. Okay,
1531 |1530 |02:16:58 ~-~-> 02:17:04 |so this I'm just
1532 |1531 |02:17:04 ~-~-> 02:17:10 |might as well tuck it in here, too, if we're bearish, which was what we've been
1533 |1532 |02:17:11 ~-~-> 02:17:15 |focusing on for NASDAQ today, we're not interested in being a buyer. It can go
1534 |1533 |02:17:15 ~-~-> 02:17:20 |up and not have any interest for us. I'm not interested in it. I want to see the
1535 |1534 |02:17:20 ~-~-> 02:17:24 |the sell off. I want to see the short side of it. So if the first presented
1536 |1535 |02:17:24 ~-~-> 02:17:28 |fair value gap here at 931 which is the earliest it can form, based on what I'm
1537 |1536 |02:17:28 ~-~-> 02:17:33 |giving Caleb as a model, if I'm bearish, and this is the fair value gap that
1538 |1537 |02:17:33 ~-~-> 02:17:38 |we're going to focus on, how would this candlestick be used as an inversion fair
1539 |1538 |02:17:38 ~-~-> 02:17:43 |value gap? Now I'm saying slowly and carefully, because I want to make sure
1540 |1539 |02:17:43 ~-~-> 02:17:46 |that I correct myself. Because I did something incorrect last week in stream,
1541 |1540 |02:17:47 ~-~-> 02:17:52 |I said something incorrectly, and then, because I heard myself say it, and I was
1542 |1541 |02:17:52 ~-~-> 02:17:56 |live streaming, I kept going back to calling it the same thing incorrectly,
1543 |1542 |02:17:57 ~-~-> 02:18:02 |and it was based on me drawing on the chart. And it disorients me. So when
1544 |1543 |02:18:02 ~-~-> 02:18:09 |you're bearish on the market, up close candles that make a fair value gap,
1545 |1544 |02:18:09 ~-~-> 02:18:12 |which is a buy side and balance sell sign, efficiency is going to be a
1546 |1545 |02:18:12 ~-~-> 02:18:21 |bearish inversion, fair value gap. So if we go down like we do here we went to
1547 |1546 |02:18:21 ~-~-> 02:18:25 |consequent crochet of that gap, which let me shade it with the little
1548 |1547 |02:18:25 ~-~-> 02:18:27 |horizontal thing in there,
1549 |1548 |02:18:29 ~-~-> 02:18:30 |make it bold.
1550 |1549 |02:18:32 ~-~-> 02:18:36 |So we've been bearish. The market used the fair value, got the outline before
1551 |1550 |02:18:36 ~-~-> 02:18:42 |it went into it trades lower, trades down into and away from see the barn
1552 |1551 |02:18:42 ~-~-> 02:18:49 |shaded area here, this box we left, it came back up, went right to consequent
1553 |1552 |02:18:49 ~-~-> 02:18:54 |encouragement, to the tick, right to the tick. Then it behaves as an inversion,
1554 |1553 |02:18:54 ~-~-> 02:19:02 |fair value gap, lower if at any time after it delivers on the basis like it's
1555 |1554 |02:19:02 ~-~-> 02:19:06 |done here. It's reacted and left it and took out a low that has already done
1556 |1555 |02:19:06 ~-~-> 02:19:11 |enough to afford it as a properly classified inversion, fair value gap. It
1557 |1556 |02:19:11 ~-~-> 02:19:14 |does not need to trade down the sell side here. Does not need to go down the
1558 |1557 |02:19:14 ~-~-> 02:19:17 |target outline. Today, it offered a trade to take out the sell side that
1559 |1558 |02:19:17 ~-~-> 02:19:21 |would be resting rate low here, from Costco, encroachment to that low. That's
1560 |1559 |02:19:21 ~-~-> 02:19:28 |a setup. If we ever trade back above and back into this fair value gap and come
1561 |1560 |02:19:28 ~-~-> 02:19:33 |back down into it, this would be classified as a reclaimed, bullish fair
1562 |1561 |02:19:33 ~-~-> 02:19:37 |value gap, because it's an up close candle. That's how you classify it. I
1563 |1562 |02:19:37 ~-~-> 02:19:41 |made the mistake of calling it an inversion fair value gap last week when
1564 |1563 |02:19:41 ~-~-> 02:19:45 |it wasn't so it should have been called a reclaimed, bullish, fair value I got.
1565 |1564 |02:19:45 ~-~-> 02:19:48 |So I made a mistake last week in the washroom, and it's because I got
1566 |1565 |02:19:48 ~-~-> 02:19:51 |disoriented by drawing on the chart I know what I'm looking for. To go back
1567 |1566 |02:19:51 ~-~-> 02:19:56 |and listen to what I was describing, you'll hear me describing what what I
1568 |1567 |02:19:56 ~-~-> 02:20:01 |see price do with that range, and I just missed. Labeled it by by the name. But
1569 |1568 |02:20:01 ~-~-> 02:20:06 |what I was expecting see price do around it is what was accurate. But I did make
1570 |1569 |02:20:06 ~-~-> 02:20:10 |a mistake and call it inversion. Fair value should have been reclaimed fairy
1571 |1570 |02:20:10 ~-~-> 02:20:20 |guy. So again, you know, even in a sloppy, just disjointed, decoupled
1572 |1571 |02:20:20 ~-~-> 02:20:34 |market where the ES is doing this, and the Dow is doing that our market, we did
1573 |1572 |02:20:34 ~-~-> 02:20:40 |pre market analysis on and all the PDAs are delivering fairbag appetolja Weaver
1574 |1573 |02:20:40 ~-~-> 02:20:45 |and consolidate around up in here? Perfect. I told you, retail is going to
1575 |1574 |02:20:45 ~-~-> 02:20:50 |want it to go higher. Well, what am I doing? I'm arm wrestling retail with
1576 |1575 |02:20:50 ~-~-> 02:20:53 |Smart Money concepts. Smart Money traders are shorting up here,
1577 |1576 |02:20:53 ~-~-> 02:20:57 |accumulating news positions, then we have a displacement lower at the fair
1578 |1577 |02:20:57 ~-~-> 02:21:00 |value gap. We were down here. I told you, watch this fair value gap here
1579 |1578 |02:21:00 ~-~-> 02:21:04 |trades up into it perfectly, drops down first fair value gap year. It's a buy
1580 |1579 |02:21:04 ~-~-> 02:21:07 |side about sales and efficiency when we're bearish, meaning what it's going
1581 |1580 |02:21:07 ~-~-> 02:21:10 |to be used as an inversion fair value gap, once it trades out of it, comes
1582 |1581 |02:21:10 ~-~-> 02:21:14 |back up. Consequent encouragement. You want to see the lower half be used for
1583 |1582 |02:21:14 ~-~-> 02:21:19 |entries. And once we leave it, the upper half stay untouched. And that's exactly
1584 |1583 |02:21:19 ~-~-> 02:21:23 |what you're seeing here. And then our markets trade down into South Side
1585 |1584 |02:21:23 ~-~-> 02:21:34 |liquidity there. So now we take this and we couple it at this low, and we dim
1586 |1585 |02:21:34 ~-~-> 02:21:40 |this one. It's on your chart. Still Caleb, it'll be in the in the chart, but
1587 |1586 |02:21:40 ~-~-> 02:21:45 |just, I'm not trying to draw too much emphasis on it. Now, this is for you to
1588 |1587 |02:21:45 ~-~-> 02:21:50 |be able to have it in your notes, screenshotting it only today's stuff,
1589 |1588 |02:21:50 ~-~-> 02:21:52 |son, tomorrow you're gonna do your own charts.
1590 |1589 |02:21:57 ~-~-> 02:22:02 |Okay, so we want to see this expand down. We don't want to see it come back
1591 |1590 |02:22:02 ~-~-> 02:22:06 |up into this inefficiency up here. It's in this box, shaded area, opening range
1592 |1591 |02:22:06 ~-~-> 02:22:13 |gap. We're going to take that out for now. You see the inversion, fair value
1593 |1592 |02:22:13 ~-~-> 02:22:18 |gap there. And we want to see speed here, aggressively run down and take
1594 |1593 |02:22:18 ~-~-> 02:22:22 |that cell side. We don't want to see them to pull their orders. You don't
1595 |1594 |02:22:22 ~-~-> 02:22:27 |need level two data for that stuff. You don't need bookmap. You don't need
1596 |1595 |02:22:29 ~-~-> 02:22:35 |anything else. You just gotta just look at Where's price. If you were long from
1597 |1596 |02:22:35 ~-~-> 02:22:42 |anywhere in here and or you went long up here, but your stop loss is below here.
1598 |1597 |02:22:43 ~-~-> 02:22:46 |How confident would you be that you're in a good position, that would still be
1599 |1598 |02:22:46 ~-~-> 02:22:51 |in the trade, or that you think this is still a bullish market? These are all
1600 |1599 |02:22:51 ~-~-> 02:22:54 |questions that I think about when I'm watching price, when it starts to move
1601 |1600 |02:22:54 ~-~-> 02:22:59 |towards the old low or old high. I try to put myself in a position of who was
1602 |1601 |02:22:59 ~-~-> 02:23:05 |in this trade right now who was getting long, or maybe would have regretted
1603 |1602 |02:23:05 ~-~-> 02:23:09 |being long, and maybe they didn't like look this and say, Hey, this is a good
1604 |1603 |02:23:09 ~-~-> 02:23:13 |time to buy. I missed this opportunity, but now they're presenting this. So is
1605 |1604 |02:23:13 ~-~-> 02:23:18 |that something that they would be wanting to buy into that I don't know.
1606 |1605 |02:23:19 ~-~-> 02:23:20 |Yes.
1607 |1606 |02:23:20 ~-~-> 02:23:33 |I single time things you
1608 |1607 |02:23:52 ~-~-> 02:24:02 |we're almost enough there, yeah, this one's so dirty. It's, it's probably
1609 |1608 |02:24:03 ~-~-> 02:24:06 |going to want to unsettled this, these highs up here.
1610 |1609 |02:24:12 ~-~-> 02:24:16 |So that's, that's more like where I would expect them to take the Dow,
1611 |1610 |02:24:16 ~-~-> 02:24:17 |because Dow just broke
1612 |1611 |02:24:17 ~-~-> 02:24:20 |lower rate from the opening. I a
1613 |1612 |02:24:31 ~-~-> 02:24:35 |challenging market today for folks out there that aren't looking at the things
1614 |1613 |02:24:35 ~-~-> 02:24:41 |I'm teaching. That's an invitation to show me your trades, by the way, for the
1615 |1614 |02:24:41 ~-~-> 02:24:46 |folks that went to troll me, show me your Elliott Wave today. Show me your
1616 |1615 |02:24:46 ~-~-> 02:24:51 |show your knickknacks, Patty wax. Give a dog a bone. Thank you.
1617 |1616 |02:25:09 ~-~-> 02:25:13 |What are characteristics of high resistance, liquidity run profiles,
1618 |1617 |02:25:15 ~-~-> 02:25:21 |deeper retracements that you than you want to see targets get traded to later
1619 |1618 |02:25:21 ~-~-> 02:25:22 |than you want to see them traded
1620 |1619 |02:25:34 ~-~-> 02:25:40 |to smaller inefficiency. There three up those candles, changes, day deliveries
1621 |1620 |02:25:40 ~-~-> 02:25:46 |that open price there, that would be like the last line in the sand for me. I
1622 |1621 |02:25:46 ~-~-> 02:25:51 |wouldn't want to have anything else go higher than that. Like I said, I want to
1623 |1622 |02:25:51 ~-~-> 02:25:56 |see them come back to that first presenter fair value gap. To do that is
1624 |1623 |02:25:56 ~-~-> 02:26:01 |problematic for being short in the first hour trading, and we are basically
1625 |1624 |02:26:01 ~-~-> 02:26:03 |technically ending that in 15 seconds, so
1626 |1625 |02:26:17 ~-~-> 02:26:25 |time together. So in quick summary, I'll try to do this in one minute. We looked
1627 |1626 |02:26:25 ~-~-> 02:26:31 |at how the market presented reasons why I believe that we still could very well
1628 |1627 |02:26:32 ~-~-> 02:26:38 |be down here. I think that that will still be a factor for this week, they
1629 |1628 |02:26:38 ~-~-> 02:26:43 |left this sell side in place. They went back inside of the new week opening gap,
1630 |1629 |02:26:43 ~-~-> 02:26:46 |which are these two purple dash lines in here? And we're back inside of the first
1631 |1630 |02:26:46 ~-~-> 02:26:52 |resentful fair value gap. Caleb, you would not use this as your short here.
1632 |1631 |02:26:52 ~-~-> 02:26:58 |Yes, there again. No, what is it doing? It's returning back to your point of
1633 |1632 |02:26:58 ~-~-> 02:27:02 |interest. If it's going back there twice, it's not as good as you want it
1634 |1633 |02:27:02 ~-~-> 02:27:05 |to be, and you want it to react the first time you get into it and then
1635 |1634 |02:27:05 ~-~-> 02:27:10 |displace lower. It did go to our sell side. It got close to the next one here,
1636 |1635 |02:27:10 ~-~-> 02:27:13 |but then said, No, I'm not going there, and started pulling back up. And I told
1637 |1636 |02:27:13 ~-~-> 02:27:17 |you, I did not want to see it return back to the first percent of fair value
1638 |1637 |02:27:17 ~-~-> 02:27:20 |gap. I didn't want to see it go back to the low of this imbalance here. So
1639 |1638 |02:27:20 ~-~-> 02:27:24 |because it was going to go here, it's going to go back to the first presented
1640 |1639 |02:27:24 ~-~-> 02:27:28 |fair value gap and or inside what new week opening gap. So if it's going back
1641 |1640 |02:27:28 ~-~-> 02:27:33 |there, that's fine. It's going to do so without you. So your trade would be
1642 |1641 |02:27:34 ~-~-> 02:27:39 |entering here at consequent encroachment of your first presented fair value gap.
1643 |1642 |02:27:39 ~-~-> 02:27:44 |That's going to be inversion, also keying up on the new week, opening gap,
1644 |1643 |02:27:44 ~-~-> 02:27:48 |laying over top of that. And your target would be these relative equal lows. You
1645 |1644 |02:27:48 ~-~-> 02:27:52 |take a large portion off if you were inclined to have more than one. You
1646 |1645 |02:27:52 ~-~-> 02:27:56 |don't have more than one contract now, but in your notes, you're going to say
1647 |1646 |02:27:56 ~-~-> 02:27:59 |this would be first partial or majority of your trade off. Why? Because you're
1648 |1647 |02:27:59 ~-~-> 02:28:05 |in a decoupled market, and then your next target would be here, which did not
1649 |1648 |02:28:05 ~-~-> 02:28:10 |pan out. So you would be stopped out going back into the first potential fair
1650 |1649 |02:28:10 ~-~-> 02:28:16 |value gap. So you're only going to be able to annotate with the basis of this
1651 |1650 |02:28:16 ~-~-> 02:28:21 |being your profit taken, and you watch as much as this deliver, but that next
1652 |1651 |02:28:21 ~-~-> 02:28:26 |level didn't give to you. And it went back to what you heard dad say, I don't
1653 |1652 |02:28:26 ~-~-> 02:28:30 |want to see it come back and touch this inefficiencies low here, or the first
1654 |1653 |02:28:30 ~-~-> 02:28:34 |percent of your bank account again. I don't I don't want to see that. To do
1655 |1654 |02:28:34 ~-~-> 02:28:39 |that doesn't afford you enough time to trade in that first one hour trading. So
1656 |1655 |02:28:39 ~-~-> 02:28:44 |you have to stick to the rules, even if this does roll over. You have to have
1657 |1656 |02:28:44 ~-~-> 02:28:47 |rules on you have to have a basis to stick within and say, This is the
1658 |1657 |02:28:47 ~-~-> 02:28:52 |guidelines I'm staying inside of. If I stay inside these guidelines, i You've
1659 |1658 |02:28:52 ~-~-> 02:28:56 |already seen enough to know that we have rules to tell us when we can avoid very
1660 |1659 |02:28:56 ~-~-> 02:29:02 |difficult market conditions. And by having that, we are already ahead of
1661 |1660 |02:29:02 ~-~-> 02:29:07 |everybody else out there. We already are light years ahead of everybody else out
1662 |1661 |02:29:07 ~-~-> 02:29:10 |there. Everybody else is out there trying to push the button. You're going
1663 |1662 |02:29:10 ~-~-> 02:29:17 |to wait when it's easy, and you can see it with the rules I'm teaching, that
1664 |1663 |02:29:17 ~-~-> 02:29:21 |it's easy if it's complicated, if it fits any criteria that I've taught you
1665 |1664 |02:29:21 ~-~-> 02:29:28 |so far about seek and destroy market is in high resistance, liquidity, run
1666 |1665 |02:29:28 ~-~-> 02:29:34 |profile, and now we have decoupling today. So you can recognize you can
1667 |1666 |02:29:34 ~-~-> 02:29:39 |recognize the adversities, so that way, you have much more experience by
1668 |1667 |02:29:39 ~-~-> 02:29:43 |understanding these profiles and how the markets book in price, then if you just
1669 |1668 |02:29:43 ~-~-> 02:29:47 |would have spent 10 years of retail stuff, because retail won't teach you
1670 |1669 |02:29:47 ~-~-> 02:29:50 |this stuff. It ain't going to teach you this. No one's teaching this kind of
1671 |1670 |02:29:50 ~-~-> 02:29:53 |stuff. They're teaching you how to get into trades. I'm teaching you how to
1672 |1671 |02:29:53 ~-~-> 02:29:58 |avoid when trading in these conditions are less likely to pan out in your
1673 |1672 |02:29:58 ~-~-> 02:30:04 |favor. You. That's the key takeaway today. Okay, so everyone else listening?
1674 |1673 |02:30:04 ~-~-> 02:30:07 |I hope that you found something insightful in this. I hope you learned
1675 |1674 |02:30:07 ~-~-> 02:30:14 |something of value. We will be back at begin tomorrow. I believe that we will
1676 |1675 |02:30:14 ~-~-> 02:30:23 |be I'll probably be doing a seven o'clock start time tomorrow, and I think
1677 |1676 |02:30:23 ~-~-> 02:30:30 |that might be the rest of the week's schedule as well. They I promise this is
1678 |1677 |02:30:30 ~-~-> 02:30:33 |the only week that we're going to do it like that. But I want to teach pre
1679 |1678 |02:30:33 ~-~-> 02:30:40 |market more in depth. But today I'm satisfied with what I thought. I'm
1680 |1679 |02:30:40 ~-~-> 02:30:44 |satisfied with how the market has delivered, and I believe that if anyone
1681 |1680 |02:30:44 ~-~-> 02:30:49 |has a a serious mindset about learning there's huge value in what was shown
1682 |1681 |02:30:49 ~-~-> 02:30:53 |today. Because I could have used this and spared myself dozens of blown
1683 |1682 |02:30:53 ~-~-> 02:30:57 |accounts in the 90s. I would have literally kept myself out of the very
1684 |1683 |02:30:57 ~-~-> 02:31:02 |instances where I hurt myself and lost the entire account. It were. It was in
1685 |1684 |02:31:02 ~-~-> 02:31:05 |these days, I would look at the market, I would see that these things were
1686 |1685 |02:31:05 ~-~-> 02:31:09 |occurring, but I never saw it as valuable information or Intel. I just
1687 |1686 |02:31:09 ~-~-> 02:31:14 |look at as, okay, well, I'm in the right market. I'm in the the index or the
1688 |1687 |02:31:14 ~-~-> 02:31:20 |commodity or the currency future that I took a trade on. So I have to stick with
1689 |1688 |02:31:20 ~-~-> 02:31:23 |it. I know I know I have all these other things that's scaring me right now, but
1690 |1689 |02:31:23 ~-~-> 02:31:26 |I'm not, I'm not going to identify that as a reason to get out. Just be content
1691 |1690 |02:31:26 ~-~-> 02:31:30 |with whatever I have. I held on to it, and I arm wrestled the market, and it
1692 |1691 |02:31:30 ~-~-> 02:31:34 |took it from me. It took the profit I had unrealized, and it took the entire
1693 |1692 |02:31:34 ~-~-> 02:31:39 |account, because I wanted to arm wrestle it so you don't have to do those things.
1694 |1693 |02:31:39 ~-~-> 02:31:42 |Son, that's not going to be impressed if you go through the same kind of pain
1695 |1694 |02:31:42 ~-~-> 02:31:45 |that I went through. That's not That's not what this is about. It's for you to
1696 |1695 |02:31:45 ~-~-> 02:31:50 |do it better than me, to do it faster than it took me to do it because I
1697 |1696 |02:31:50 ~-~-> 02:31:53 |wrestled through all this stuff. You're getting blessed. I feel like the Lord's
1698 |1697 |02:31:53 ~-~-> 02:31:57 |laying these things out perfectly. So that way you get these lessons in the
1699 |1698 |02:31:57 ~-~-> 02:32:01 |beginning, and that way you can have this understanding right from Jump
1700 |1699 |02:32:01 ~-~-> 02:32:05 |Street, and have it in your mind, knowing that there are days when I don't
1701 |1700 |02:32:05 ~-~-> 02:32:09 |have to trade, and it could still move around with a rhyme and reason that I
1702 |1701 |02:32:09 ~-~-> 02:32:12 |can still see that doesn't mean I need to go there and risk real money, and
1703 |1702 |02:32:12 ~-~-> 02:32:15 |then when you don't have these types of conditions, because there really isn't
1704 |1703 |02:32:15 ~-~-> 02:32:19 |anything else now, there is no other reason to stay out of the marketplace.
1705 |1704 |02:32:19 ~-~-> 02:32:23 |We've already covered all three bases, high resistance liquidity profiles.
1706 |1705 |02:32:24 ~-~-> 02:32:27 |They're tradable, but you have to handle them differently, with a wider stop and
1707 |1706 |02:32:27 ~-~-> 02:32:33 |hold on to that stop near your entry, seek and destroy. You can't trade it and
1708 |1707 |02:32:33 ~-~-> 02:32:37 |then decoupled markets, you can trade them, but you're probably not going to
1709 |1708 |02:32:37 ~-~-> 02:32:41 |get your your targets. You're going to have similar things like a high
1710 |1709 |02:32:41 ~-~-> 02:32:45 |resistance liquidity run profile, where it's a lot of give and take, but it
1711 |1710 |02:32:45 ~-~-> 02:32:49 |eventually get to where you want to go. But are you going to be good enough to
1712 |1711 |02:32:49 ~-~-> 02:32:57 |pick the NASDAQ over the ES, I don't think you will. So to keep that from
1713 |1712 |02:32:57 ~-~-> 02:33:04 |ever being an issue, I told you to stay with just the NASDAQ. So I'm filtering
1714 |1713 |02:33:04 ~-~-> 02:33:07 |all of these scenarios because I've taught lots of people all around the
1715 |1714 |02:33:07 ~-~-> 02:33:13 |world, and for 25 years I've been teaching, I have picked up on how they
1716 |1715 |02:33:13 ~-~-> 02:33:18 |make the same mistakes. So by forcing you to just use one instrument, it
1717 |1716 |02:33:18 ~-~-> 02:33:24 |removes the tendency, or the opportunity for you to be tricked by feeling like
1718 |1717 |02:33:24 ~-~-> 02:33:27 |you you pick the right one, so therefore, stay with your trade. No, you
1719 |1718 |02:33:27 ~-~-> 02:33:30 |have to. You have to look at all three averages. And if they don't agree,
1720 |1719 |02:33:30 ~-~-> 02:33:33 |they're not moving the same way. They're decoupled. If they're decoupled, you're
1721 |1720 |02:33:33 ~-~-> 02:33:37 |not going to get a perfect price run like you would want in a low resistance
1722 |1721 |02:33:37 ~-~-> 02:33:42 |liquidity run profile. We don't have that here, but because you've seen all
1723 |1722 |02:33:42 ~-~-> 02:33:46 |three of the things that cause difficult trading, not impossible trading,
1724 |1723 |02:33:46 ~-~-> 02:33:49 |difficult trading, anything that doesn't fit the criteria you've seen in those
1725 |1724 |02:33:49 ~-~-> 02:33:57 |three different profiles is easy, easy, easy trading. They run right to your
1726 |1725 |02:33:57 ~-~-> 02:34:00 |targets. Your entries are perfect and pristine. Your stops are easy to place
1727 |1726 |02:34:00 ~-~-> 02:34:04 |in low risk, and it's just pleasant to trade in those environments. And if I
1728 |1727 |02:34:04 ~-~-> 02:34:08 |can teach you to focus on that and anyone else that's listening, if you
1729 |1728 |02:34:08 ~-~-> 02:34:11 |learn to identify those conditions when it's low resistance, liquidity, run
1730 |1729 |02:34:11 ~-~-> 02:34:15 |profiles, your trading will be enjoyable. You will not be stressful.
1731 |1730 |02:34:15 ~-~-> 02:34:20 |It'll seem like it's effortless. And while there's still inherent risks with
1732 |1731 |02:34:20 ~-~-> 02:34:23 |that, and you'll still get stopped out once in a while, you're going to find
1733 |1732 |02:34:23 ~-~-> 02:34:26 |that the market quickly wants to go to where you think it's going to go and
1734 |1733 |02:34:26 ~-~-> 02:34:34 |where your targets are resting. That's fun. That is what encourages continuous
1735 |1734 |02:34:34 ~-~-> 02:34:37 |adherence to good sound, money management and logic behind the stage
1736 |1735 |02:34:37 ~-~-> 02:34:41 |setups. So with that, wish you all very good, pleasant day, and I will touch
1737 |1736 |02:34:41 ~-~-> 02:34:45 |base with you, I'm sure, with some kind of a review video, video. And until
1738 |1737 |02:34:45 ~-~-> 02:34:48 |then, Lord Glen, I'll see you tomorrow. Be safe. You.