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ICT YT - 2024-09-30 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 36

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:31
1 00:01:53 --> 00:01:53 ICT: Good morning, folks.
2 00:02:01 --> 00:02:06 OBS is challenging me this morning again.
3 00:02:12 --> 00:02:21 Okay, if you are a user on X or known as Twitter, and you follow me there, if you
4 00:02:21 --> 00:02:24 give me a five by five, that'll Tell me that you guys can hear me fine.
5 00:02:42 --> 00:02:45 Thank you so much. Thank you for that. Appreciate it.
6 00:02:50 --> 00:02:58 Okay, let's get this going. So I purposely left myself a void of reading
7 00:02:58 --> 00:03:04 any price action on Sunday, if this is my first time, with the exception of
8 00:03:04 --> 00:03:08 just toggling to the weekly chart. So I've only looked at the charts long
9 00:03:08 --> 00:03:13 enough to see the time frame change. I haven't looked at any kind of levels,
10 00:03:13 --> 00:03:28 the the absence of holding a previous week's bias, if, if I could come into a
11 00:03:28 --> 00:03:33 live stream like that, I'm trying to accomplish the same thing. I believe
12 00:03:33 --> 00:03:42 that Caleb would have so in other words, it's, it's easy for me to spend about
13 00:03:42 --> 00:03:48 2030 minutes in the evening time with the London session, maybe 2030 minutes
14 00:03:48 --> 00:03:54 in the Asian session, when it opened up last night, just getting the weekly
15 00:03:54 --> 00:04:00 opening gap, and then turning the charts off and Just letting overnight take
16 00:04:01 --> 00:04:05 whatever action that it wants to take. And then coming into the morning pre
17 00:04:05 --> 00:04:13 market. Pre market is, I like to trade those days when there's a pal speech,
18 00:04:14 --> 00:04:20 when there's FOMC. I like to trade early in the day, because the the price action
19 00:04:20 --> 00:04:25 tends to be a little bit more cleaner. And what I mean by cleaner, it's a
20 00:04:25 --> 00:04:29 little bit more obvious in terms of what it wants to reach for. It's far less
21 00:04:29 --> 00:04:33 likely to be like a seek and destroy or a high resistance liquidity profile,
22 00:04:33 --> 00:04:37 because there's a lot of professionals in the market trying to get in and take
23 00:04:37 --> 00:04:43 something early on and let everyone else gamble after or during or ahead of a pal
24 00:04:43 --> 00:04:52 speech. Typically the the days that have the Fed Chair speaking right before he
25 00:04:52 --> 00:04:57 starts or she, when there was a lady, used to be a Fed Chair whenever they
26 00:04:57 --> 00:05:03 would speak. Lee. Up to that the market would tend to be a little bit more
27 00:05:03 --> 00:05:08 fickle, a little bit more challenging, and in my opinion, they were better left
28 00:05:08 --> 00:05:12 to the novice traders, someone that just wants to believe they can gamble and get
29 00:05:12 --> 00:05:18 lucky. But on days that your Fed chair is speaking and it's in the afternoon,
30 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 or if it's really early, let's say it's like a 10 o'clock or even a 930 or 915
31 00:05:24 --> 00:05:32 or 945 speech. Anything? Okay, prior to nine o'clock, in my opinion, is pre
32 00:05:32 --> 00:05:40 market, because the opening range is 930 to 10 o'clock during that first 30
33 00:05:40 --> 00:05:45 minutes trading, if there's a Fed Chairman testimony, where they're
34 00:05:45 --> 00:05:51 talking anytime within that nine o'clock to 10 o'clock hour, you want to be
35 00:05:51 --> 00:05:55 trading before eight o'clock in the morning says you want to have that in
36 00:05:55 --> 00:05:59 your notes. I'll talk more about those things in the book, but I just want to
37 00:05:59 --> 00:06:06 give you a little bit of a like a tip my hand to you get some hints today. If you
38 00:06:06 --> 00:06:10 look at the economic calendar, you'll notice that there is one medium impact
39 00:06:10 --> 00:06:15 news event. That's the Chicago PMI number at 945 so that's 15 minutes after
40 00:06:15 --> 00:06:19 opening bell. So that's fine. That'll help fuel some of the first 30 minutes
41 00:06:19 --> 00:06:27 trading. I'm me, my counsel to my son is because it's a 945 medium impact news
42 00:06:27 --> 00:06:33 driver, he has to sit still and wait until 10 o'clock. So he'll let that news
43 00:06:33 --> 00:06:38 driver come into the marketplace, let traders either get canceled out, stopped
44 00:06:38 --> 00:06:44 out, or get kicked into an idea based on what they see at the 945 news event.
45 00:06:46 --> 00:06:51 He's not trying to predict the delivery of price. He's letting that first 15
46 00:06:51 --> 00:06:55 minutes pass. Okay, so that's like the minimum criteria for anything that comes
47 00:06:55 --> 00:07:00 after a high impact or medium that news driver. Wait 15 minutes if you're trying
48 00:07:00 --> 00:07:05 to trade right on the release of that news, and it's under 15 minutes, your
49 00:07:05 --> 00:07:10 chances are you're probably in a rush and you're in a hurry to do something
50 00:07:10 --> 00:07:14 you probably aren't equipped to trade with. There's plenty of other
51 00:07:14 --> 00:07:17 opportunities to get in, as you'll see in the rest of mentorship. Before we
52 00:07:17 --> 00:07:24 close it down this year, there's lots of ways to get into a move. So the pre
53 00:07:24 --> 00:07:29 market session is anything before nine o'clock in the morning. We have a Fed
54 00:07:29 --> 00:07:35 Chairman testimony today, but it's in the afternoon. So you can trade all the
55 00:07:35 --> 00:07:40 way up until the opening bell, seven o'clock in the morning starts it and at
56 00:07:40 --> 00:07:43 seven o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time. So whatever the local time is in
57 00:07:43 --> 00:07:47 New York, always have your clock set to that, especially your trading view
58 00:07:47 --> 00:07:53 charts, because if you don't have them toggled to New York time, if it's not
59 00:07:53 --> 00:07:56 toggled there, everything I'm teaching, you're not going to be able to follow
60 00:07:56 --> 00:08:03 correctly. If you're using your local time, it won't work. So sitting down the
61 00:08:03 --> 00:08:08 charts, this is what I do. Okay, this is exactly what I do on Sunday. So I
62 00:08:08 --> 00:08:11 deferred everything that I would normally do, then I'm doing it now. Now,
63 00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 admittedly, I'm doing a little bit late, because I want to come into the live
64 00:08:14 --> 00:08:21 stream knowing next to nothing in terms of a bias. I don't have any kind of
65 00:08:21 --> 00:08:25 preconceived ideas about what I want to see in the charts. I want to see what
66 00:08:25 --> 00:08:30 the chart looks like as I sit down with it. So this basically pantomiming the
67 00:08:30 --> 00:08:34 closest thing I can. I can't forget what I already know, right? But for the sake
68 00:08:34 --> 00:08:40 of presenting it for my son, and also to try to illustrate that, it only takes a
69 00:08:40 --> 00:08:44 few minutes to ascertain what it is that you want to focus on. Focus on, and now
70 00:08:44 --> 00:08:48 we're going to go through it. So this gap up here, we talked about this
71 00:08:48 --> 00:08:53 throughout the 2024 mentorship. We talked about the volume imbalance here
72 00:08:53 --> 00:08:56 in the September contract. I told you that was about as far as I could see for
73 00:08:56 --> 00:08:59 the year for that contract, it went just a little bit above that. And then when
74 00:09:00 --> 00:09:05 we rolled over if we looked at the on the daily chart. Right now, I'm looking
75 00:09:05 --> 00:09:09 at the weekly, but the Weekly has this imbalance up here, so we've had that
76 00:09:09 --> 00:09:17 trade too, and we have just a few more weeks to get to the US election, and I
77 00:09:17 --> 00:09:21 want to give the market the opportunity to explore lower lower prices, and what
78 00:09:21 --> 00:09:24 would that look like? Well, we already have what would be the start of a
79 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 potential, I'm not saying that is it could be a potential turning point. So I
80 00:09:29 --> 00:09:35 would like to see if we can make an attempt to start breaking down. I don't
81 00:09:35 --> 00:09:39 want to, I don't want to predict or time the the high in the marketplace, but I'm
82 00:09:39 --> 00:09:45 affording myself at least going in, because I'm assuming that it's a Sunday
83 00:09:46 --> 00:09:51 the weekend's past, and now I'm going to look at what I want to try to see in
84 00:09:51 --> 00:09:56 price action, formulate some kind of a game plan. I like the idea of
85 00:09:56 --> 00:10:02 entertaining the likelihood of trading down into this gap here. This week. So
86 00:10:02 --> 00:10:08 that's this right here. So basically, what I'm doing, I'm giving you a soup to
87 00:10:08 --> 00:10:12 nuts breakdown of what I do on the weekend. Sometimes I'll do it on a
88 00:10:12 --> 00:10:16 Friday, and then I'll have notes about what I expect to see based on a higher
89 00:10:16 --> 00:10:22 opening on Sunday's gap, or a lower opening gap, or a lack of a gap, so I'll
90 00:10:22 --> 00:10:27 flesh out scenarios, and I'll talk more about that in the book, because it's not
91 00:10:27 --> 00:10:30 important right now, I'm giving you actionable points. That's this whole
92 00:10:30 --> 00:10:34 week. I'm giving you something to strip it down, remove all of the moving parts
93 00:10:34 --> 00:10:38 and say, Okay, I need something to provide myself a way of determining a
94 00:10:38 --> 00:10:44 bias. And then I have to also learn how to frame a narrative why the market
95 00:10:44 --> 00:10:49 should behave a certain way. And then what, what model am I going to use, and
96 00:10:49 --> 00:10:53 what time of day am I going to trade? And how am I going to enter the trade?
97 00:10:53 --> 00:10:58 And how will I place my stop loss? How will I take a first partial? When will I
98 00:10:58 --> 00:11:02 move my stop loss? When will I be content? And it trades my terminus, and
99 00:11:02 --> 00:11:05 then I stop trading for that session or that day, and then go back in the next
100 00:11:05 --> 00:11:08 day. That's, that's what we're doing this week. Like, this is boot camp for
101 00:11:08 --> 00:11:14 getting out there and using my concept correctly, streamlined. It's not fluffed
102 00:11:14 --> 00:11:17 up with everything you're possibly learning from my YouTube channel. It's
103 00:11:17 --> 00:11:21 literally going in and saying, This is how you make money. This is how you go
104 00:11:21 --> 00:11:26 in and you you look for setups that form every single day you go in, looking for
105 00:11:26 --> 00:11:30 this same repeating recipe. Sometimes it isn't going to give it to you. Sometimes
106 00:11:30 --> 00:11:33 you'll think it's there, you'll execute on it, and you'll lose that's the
107 00:11:33 --> 00:11:38 reality of it. I don't have a model that's 100% I'm not going to teach you
108 00:11:38 --> 00:11:43 100% no one else is going to teach you 100% either. So just relax and accept
109 00:11:43 --> 00:11:46 the fact that uncertainty is something you need to embrace. But you can start
110 00:11:46 --> 00:11:51 to strip away some of that stuff by fleshing out a model that has sound
111 00:11:51 --> 00:11:56 logic in and what we're looking at is we're up here. We traded to a premium
112 00:11:56 --> 00:12:02 relative to the weekly chart last week, and then now we're in this week's
113 00:12:02 --> 00:12:08 present candlestick. The inefficiency on the weekly chart is this candle right
114 00:12:08 --> 00:12:16 here. This week's high, that week's low. This individual candlestick only has buy
115 00:12:16 --> 00:12:22 side delivery. That means movement higher, and it would be reasonable To
116 00:12:22 --> 00:12:29 anticipate the market wanting to go and explore. I
117 00:12:43 --> 00:12:44 it's weird,
118 00:12:50 --> 00:12:50 this low,
119 00:12:56 --> 00:13:00 okay, and for annotation purposes, Caleb, what you want to do is when
120 00:13:00 --> 00:13:03 you're annotating on a higher Time Frame chart and time frame chart, anything you
121 00:13:03 --> 00:13:06 put on your chart on a higher Time Frame, because you're gonna be working
122 00:13:06 --> 00:13:10 on a lower time frames for entries excess management of a trade, you want
123 00:13:10 --> 00:13:20 to annotate that. So this is September 23 weekly low. I'm so
124 00:13:35 --> 00:13:38 that when you go into the lower time frame charts, when this line appears
125 00:13:38 --> 00:13:42 over here on the right hand side towards the price axis of the chart. This is
126 00:13:42 --> 00:13:45 your time axis at the bottom. This will always give you your reference point as
127 00:13:45 --> 00:13:49 to what you're looking at. Because if you start laying down lines on your
128 00:13:49 --> 00:13:52 chart and you don't annotate them, you don't tell yourself what they are,
129 00:13:53 --> 00:13:56 they're meaningless. Then they're distractions. So you want to be
130 00:13:56 --> 00:14:02 organized with your annotations. And then obviously, if it makes the effort
131 00:14:02 --> 00:14:08 to get down into this inefficiency. This one here September 9. So the week of
132 00:14:08 --> 00:14:12 September 23 and September 9, respectively shown here.
133 00:14:20 --> 00:14:27 And this is the weekly high for that week. Short, sweet and easy. Now you can
134 00:14:27 --> 00:14:31 go as far as going into adding the consequent encroachment of that, and
135 00:14:31 --> 00:14:38 I'll do it now just to show you, Caleb, take the low of it and the high
136 00:14:41 --> 00:14:47 and the midpoint take the quadrants off.
137 00:14:49 --> 00:14:52 So 883, and quarter and.
138 00:15:06 --> 00:15:13 883, and a quarter. 883, and a quarter, okay, and
139 00:15:20 --> 00:15:24 just anchor inside that candle there you can label it. You
140 00:15:48 --> 00:15:49 There it is, okay.
141 00:15:51 --> 00:15:57 This wick here, you can annotate that with consequent crochet as well. And
142 00:15:57 --> 00:16:02 this one, we're going to leave that off today, but you can do that for your own
143 00:16:02 --> 00:16:10 charts and then the daily chart. So now start refining a little bit more. We
144 00:16:10 --> 00:16:15 have this little gap in here of volume imbalance here and volume imbalance
145 00:16:15 --> 00:16:18 there. Whenever there's consecutive volume imbalances, if it's just one
146 00:16:18 --> 00:16:23 single candle like that, just do the entire range. It makes it very easy.
147 00:16:23 --> 00:16:26 You'll you'll see the inefficiencies just the same as you would if you've
148 00:16:26 --> 00:16:29 just done them individually. So what that looks like is this,
149 00:16:35 --> 00:16:41 and since it's a premium array, you want to have some kind of a hue or color that
150 00:16:41 --> 00:16:46 helps you, not too much. That's enough for me to notice it. You can do whatever
151 00:16:46 --> 00:16:49 you want to do on your charts, but I'm just giving you the idea how I'm going
152 00:16:49 --> 00:16:53 to be able to refer to it. I don't keep this stuff on my chart. As you can see
153 00:16:53 --> 00:16:58 when I put it on there, it's very distracting and disorienting. Sometimes
154 00:16:58 --> 00:17:02 I know what I'm looking at just by the candlestick, and it's actually harder
155 00:17:02 --> 00:17:06 for me to teach it and describe it real time than it is to just simply do it so
156 00:17:06 --> 00:17:10 and you'll you'll know what that means when you start getting better at it. But
157 00:17:10 --> 00:17:14 we have that volume imbalance here that is two consecutive volume balances, but
158 00:17:14 --> 00:17:18 only separated. But one candlestick, usually you only see something like like
159 00:17:18 --> 00:17:22 this candles, body to that candle stick body, and that's a volume imbalance. But
160 00:17:22 --> 00:17:26 there's one immediately to the to the left of that too. So just to encompass
161 00:17:26 --> 00:17:29 the entire range there, it's fine, because this is actually an indecisive
162 00:17:29 --> 00:17:35 candle. It is basically all but not it's not that important. The more important
163 00:17:35 --> 00:17:43 factor is this in this Okay, so just, just disregard this one. Trust me in
164 00:17:43 --> 00:17:46 that. Okay, you'll see what it means when we start looking at lower prices.
165 00:17:47 --> 00:17:53 All right. So now you should already notice that there is two lows down here
166 00:17:54 --> 00:17:58 that are real close to one another, right? So when we drop down to I'm going
167 00:17:58 --> 00:18:02 to skip entirely over a four hour chart, because it's not necessary. If I was
168 00:18:02 --> 00:18:07 swing trading, or if I was trading for like, the entirety of the weekly range,
169 00:18:07 --> 00:18:10 I would drop down to the four hour and do this same type of thing, looking for
170 00:18:10 --> 00:18:15 a specific PD arrays, things that would be impactful for me. Because I'm not
171 00:18:15 --> 00:18:20 trying to swing trade. I'm not trying to do anything except for session trade, or
172 00:18:20 --> 00:18:24 at the very most, very, most, very nice. That's not That's not appropriate. At
173 00:18:24 --> 00:18:31 the very least, I'm trying to do just a session trade or scalp, but up to the
174 00:18:31 --> 00:18:35 daily range, and that can be afforded to you by simply looking at the hourly
175 00:18:35 --> 00:18:37 chart. So we're gonna do a 60 minute chart.
176 00:18:42 --> 00:18:45 Now I'm okay,
177 00:18:46 --> 00:18:52 and see this big wick right here? This is a level I'm literally teaching you
178 00:18:52 --> 00:18:55 right now. This is what I write on my notepad. You guys keep asking. Keep
179 00:18:55 --> 00:19:00 asking. Keep asking. I go through the charts and I write down all the things
180 00:19:00 --> 00:19:05 that I'm doing right here, any wicks that are at lows or highs or in close
181 00:19:05 --> 00:19:11 proximity the market price. I annotate those consequent encroachment levels.
182 00:19:12 --> 00:19:16 And if it's something that's a discount like this would be here relative to
183 00:19:16 --> 00:19:20 where we're at here. This is where the market price is right now, 20,001 52,
184 00:19:20 --> 00:19:23 and a half, let me add the
185 00:19:38 --> 00:19:46 It bothers me when I don't see that thing, the this wick is lower than
186 00:19:46 --> 00:19:51 current market price. So that means that this is a discount wick, whereas
187 00:19:51 --> 00:19:55 something like, like this wick would be a premium wick, because it's above
188 00:19:55 --> 00:20:00 current market price. Okay, if you're not looking at price. Some relative
189 00:20:00 --> 00:20:05 terms, to premium, to discount, you're absolutely doing it wrong. Okay? You're
190 00:20:05 --> 00:20:09 absolutely, I don't care what, young man This makes a YouTube video. It says you
191 00:20:09 --> 00:20:14 don't need this. You don't need that every every single high probability
192 00:20:14 --> 00:20:19 short is always entered, whether you use my stuff or not, if it's worked, it's
193 00:20:19 --> 00:20:23 because it was in a premium, and it's moved to a discount. Every single 100%
194 00:20:24 --> 00:20:30 strike rate. Every single time a long trade that was profitable in your hands
195 00:20:30 --> 00:20:34 or anyone else's hands, was because it left a discount and traded to a premium,
196 00:20:34 --> 00:20:38 absolutely 100% it never misses. It's just like a partial profit. It never
197 00:20:38 --> 00:20:43 misses. It never loses. It's 100% strike rate. So for anyone that's telling you,
198 00:20:43 --> 00:20:47 don't worry about looking at premium the discount, they're a fucking clown, and
199 00:20:47 --> 00:20:50 stop watching them, because they literally are trying to reinvent
200 00:20:50 --> 00:20:53 something, and they're taking your way, picking your eyesight away from the
201 00:20:53 --> 00:20:57 things that matter most. If you can't frame the basis of your short that it's
202 00:20:57 --> 00:21:03 inside of a premium, you're hopeless. If you can't frame your long on the basis
203 00:21:03 --> 00:21:07 of a discount, you're hopeless. You're literally asking to lose money. You're
204 00:21:07 --> 00:21:10 literally you might as well just go outside find the first person you see
205 00:21:10 --> 00:21:14 and just give them your money. It's more charitable than you just going out there
206 00:21:14 --> 00:21:17 and giving it to people that know better and you don't Okay. So I mean that
207 00:21:17 --> 00:21:27 entirely. So this is another level. Here I'm writing I'm writing them down as we
208 00:21:27 --> 00:21:29 go so the to this level here,
209 00:21:42 --> 00:21:47 okay? So that's consequent encroachment there, and this will be annotated as an
210 00:21:47 --> 00:21:48 hourly.
211 00:21:53 --> 00:21:59 I abbreviate. I just put like a 60 M CE, and it's because it's lower. I put a
212 00:21:59 --> 00:22:06 little tiny D next to it, so it tells me it's a discount. So 60 minute discount,
213 00:22:08 --> 00:22:14 WIC, C, B, that's your definition, so we understand what it is. But I just told
214 00:22:14 --> 00:22:22 you how I write on my my new path, and There it is. So
215 00:22:35 --> 00:22:36 double up. Didn't know how to
216 00:22:46 --> 00:22:47 I see these flaring.
217 00:23:02 --> 00:23:05 I Okay.
218 00:23:07 --> 00:23:12 Now I go through the daily chart, I like the idea that we cleared this high here.
219 00:23:13 --> 00:23:16 I like the idea that we went into this inefficiency here. This is sell side and
220 00:23:16 --> 00:23:20 balance by sign efficiency. I love the fact that we traded back up to change
221 00:23:20 --> 00:23:23 the state of delivery, which is my order block theory, and it's the opening price
222 00:23:23 --> 00:23:29 of the up close candle right here. So that is a really nice delivery there.
223 00:23:32 --> 00:23:36 And I don't know why my every time I'm drawing these trend lines, it's shooting
224 00:23:36 --> 00:23:45 to the left. I have no idea why it's doing that. I yeah, I don't know what's
225 00:23:45 --> 00:23:51 going on there. It's weird. Let me know in in Twitter, training, views, acting
226 00:23:51 --> 00:23:55 Milwaukee for you. But I don't want to do a ray, because this is going to drive
227 00:23:55 --> 00:24:00 me nuts. It's not important. But that opening price there in this high that
228 00:24:00 --> 00:24:07 being together is that's nice. What I want to see, admittedly already, is I
229 00:24:07 --> 00:24:15 want to see price try to go lower this morning. Okay, so my bias is bearish. I
230 00:24:15 --> 00:24:20 want to see something that I can frame as a narrative now to go lower. So what
231 00:24:20 --> 00:24:24 would that be? Well, we already noticed on daily chart, there was some relative
232 00:24:24 --> 00:24:27 equal loads that I spotted. But can we see them on the lower time frames where
233 00:24:27 --> 00:24:32 it makes sense? So we can drop down from the hourly chart now to a 15 minute time
234 00:24:32 --> 00:24:35 frame. Now, obviously it's taking me more time talking and teaching you why
235 00:24:35 --> 00:24:39 I'm doing what I'm doing than actually just doing it. So it literally takes a
236 00:24:39 --> 00:24:42 few minutes to go through the time frames. Break them down, look for the
237 00:24:42 --> 00:24:45 levels, and there it is. It's the obvious things that you're looking for.
238 00:24:45 --> 00:24:49 If it's not obvious, you're probably straining to make it work. Okay. If it
239 00:24:49 --> 00:24:52 doesn't jump off of the chart at you, chances are you're probably making more
240 00:24:52 --> 00:24:56 of it than it really is. And I mean that you'll see in your own experience that
241 00:24:57 --> 00:25:00 the more you try to push and push and push like a five. Nine tooth comb, go
242 00:25:00 --> 00:25:04 through everything. You don't need to do that, especially on these higher Time
243 00:25:04 --> 00:25:09 Frame charts. Like, one hour for me is it's a it's a higher Time Frame. Like,
244 00:25:09 --> 00:25:12 there's a lot of stuff going on. Every one of these individual candlesticks on
245 00:25:12 --> 00:25:16 the 15 second chart, and every one of these individual one hour charts is like
246 00:25:16 --> 00:25:22 a daily range. For me, I can trade a 15 and five second chart and run circles
247 00:25:22 --> 00:25:25 around most everything else out there and just trade inside one of these one
248 00:25:25 --> 00:25:30 hour candles. And how many candles do you have in a daily session? So you can
249 00:25:30 --> 00:25:34 see how fast velocity kicks in. So while it's not important for you to be able to
250 00:25:34 --> 00:25:37 do that yet, Caleb, but you will, if you stick with it and you want to do that,
251 00:25:37 --> 00:25:40 dad will absolutely love teaching that to you, but you have to start like here
252 00:25:40 --> 00:25:46 first. So we'll drop down to an hourly chart, to a 15 minute time frame. And
253 00:25:46 --> 00:25:53 here's the business from here's Friday and then Sunday. So the only thing I did
254 00:25:53 --> 00:25:57 last night at six o'clock was annotate the weekly opening gap, and then I turn
255 00:25:57 --> 00:26:01 the charts off. So this is the first time I'm I've seen a 15 minute time
256 00:26:01 --> 00:26:14 frame, and looking at the the lows here, notice how that low has that lower low
257 00:26:14 --> 00:26:20 to the right of it, and then this low has that low lower than the one here,
258 00:26:20 --> 00:26:24 and This low has the lower low here to the right of it, and now this low has
259 00:26:24 --> 00:26:30 been breached by this so we don't see any kind of relative equal lows here. We
260 00:26:30 --> 00:26:34 see what the market keep probing lower, keep probing lower, keep probing lower.
261 00:26:35 --> 00:26:38 Remember what we have later in the afternoon that Fed chair, pal speaking,
262 00:26:39 --> 00:26:43 we have a little bit of likely volatility coming in, and then what
263 00:26:43 --> 00:26:49 we'll have is what some kind of Judas swing right between 945 and 10 o'clock
264 00:26:49 --> 00:26:54 in the morning. I am anticipating in my mind. I'm thinking, okay, without that
265 00:26:54 --> 00:27:00 945 news driver, the Chicago PMI news report. That's what that that's what I'm
266 00:27:00 --> 00:27:03 referring to. So if you look at your economic calendar, you can see, you can
267 00:27:03 --> 00:27:06 see that on forex factory.com that's when I used a lot, when I was teaching,
268 00:27:06 --> 00:27:10 predominantly just the forex market. And everything I'm doing here is what you do
269 00:27:10 --> 00:27:14 in forex, too, folks. I know you guys are barking and saying, Please do Forex.
270 00:27:14 --> 00:27:16 Please do Forex. It's the same thing. Everything I'm doing here is the same
271 00:27:16 --> 00:27:19 thing you're going to do in your forex pairs and with the dollar index. The
272 00:27:19 --> 00:27:23 only thing is, with Forex, you got to go one step further and do it on the dollar
273 00:27:23 --> 00:27:26 index too. So everything should be mirror anything you see in the dollar
274 00:27:26 --> 00:27:31 index. You should see the opposite in your POUND DOLLAR or your Euro dollar,
275 00:27:31 --> 00:27:38 or your dollar yen or whatever, whatever pair you're trading. You have to at
276 00:27:38 --> 00:27:42 least refer to the dollar index to get a full panoramic view. If you're trading
277 00:27:42 --> 00:27:46 Forex in futures, we don't have to worry about that. Notice I have anything wrong
278 00:27:46 --> 00:27:53 in very rarely even referred to the SM, SMT studies. I think I probably pulled
279 00:27:53 --> 00:27:57 up maybe two or three times the entirety of this mentorship in 2024 because I
280 00:27:57 --> 00:28:02 need my son to look at the very minimum things initially. If I throw everything
281 00:28:02 --> 00:28:07 at him, like you all try to do, why? By watching my YouTube videos, you inundate
282 00:28:07 --> 00:28:10 yourself, and it causes analysis paralysis. And then you get the guys
283 00:28:10 --> 00:28:13 that are not really trying to learn. They want something to sample real quick
284 00:28:13 --> 00:28:17 and go make courses, mentorships and write books so they don't know what to
285 00:28:17 --> 00:28:21 pick correctly. So they just say, Screw it. It's too much. It's complication.
286 00:28:21 --> 00:28:24 It's over complicated. It's not over complicated, as I'm teaching you this
287 00:28:24 --> 00:28:27 week. It's literally the simplest thing you could ever have in terms of trading
288 00:28:27 --> 00:28:36 with real information that helps you see the market before it happens. But all
289 00:28:36 --> 00:28:43 I'm doing is just using one chart, one market, the NASDAQ, keeping your focus
290 00:28:43 --> 00:28:47 on one instrument. You have to start this way. If you haven't noticed charter
291 00:28:47 --> 00:28:53 members, this is exactly what I told all of you to do in 2016 and every time we
292 00:28:53 --> 00:28:57 had brought in a new group, I would start off the same way. You have to
293 00:28:57 --> 00:29:01 start with one instrument. One instrument. Do not have a list of things
294 00:29:01 --> 00:29:05 just one. And if it's Forex that you're trading, you have to have a correlated
295 00:29:05 --> 00:29:11 market, or, I'm sorry, in forex, you have to have an inverse correlated
296 00:29:11 --> 00:29:15 market, like the dollar. So when you're trading futures, it's so much easier,
297 00:29:15 --> 00:29:20 because you just simply need one instrument. I don't need SMT to trade
298 00:29:20 --> 00:29:24 profitably. I don't need that. You don't need it. It's just one of those things
299 00:29:24 --> 00:29:27 that help me decide if I want to take the largest leverage on the trade or
300 00:29:27 --> 00:29:33 not. In the beginning, it helped me qualify a trade like if I see because
301 00:29:33 --> 00:29:38 shorting was scary to me, so I wanted to have something behind that idea that,
302 00:29:38 --> 00:29:43 okay, it's over. It's, it's, it's showing a bearish divergence in this the
303 00:29:43 --> 00:29:46 cast. That's what I was doing back then in the 90s. I started with indicators
304 00:29:47 --> 00:29:50 too, but I didn't trust it entirely. And the reason why I didn't trust it because
305 00:29:50 --> 00:29:56 I would lose a lot, so I knew I had to go through that process of getting to
306 00:29:56 --> 00:30:01 the point where I could make money and be successful doing it. Even if it's far
307 00:30:01 --> 00:30:05 and few between, I had to keep doing what I was doing to find that initial
308 00:30:05 --> 00:30:09 success, and I wanted a little bit more confidence by having something behind
309 00:30:09 --> 00:30:13 the scenes, giving me a little bit more courage, because I was lacking a lot of
310 00:30:13 --> 00:30:21 that in the 90s. I know it's hard to believe, but the by looking at currency
311 00:30:21 --> 00:30:27 futures. I was using the Deutsche Mark, comparing their highs against the
312 00:30:27 --> 00:30:34 British pound, against the highs of the Japanese yen, against the highs of any
313 00:30:34 --> 00:30:37 other currency, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar. And I would go
314 00:30:37 --> 00:30:40 through and I would find the one that was failing to make a higher high and
315 00:30:40 --> 00:30:44 the one that was making a higher high, I wouldn't short those because they were
316 00:30:44 --> 00:30:47 telling me they wanted to go higher anyway, so they're probably not going to
317 00:30:47 --> 00:30:51 drop as much. So I used the idea that I got from Larry Williams. And this is
318 00:30:51 --> 00:30:54 I've already asked, by the way. I just want to interject this. I've asked for
319 00:30:54 --> 00:30:58 years for people come out here and say that my concepts have been rebranded
320 00:30:58 --> 00:31:01 from somewhere else, and they they'll say Larry Williams, I have been open
321 00:31:01 --> 00:31:05 about what I have adopted from Larry Williams, and I've given credit every
322 00:31:05 --> 00:31:08 single time there has been something I've learned from him. I told all of you
323 00:31:08 --> 00:31:11 to buy everything he has. I mean, he's a legend in the industry, like he is a
324 00:31:11 --> 00:31:18 real legend. Okay, I'm not a legend. I'm not some superstar. I'm just an average
325 00:31:18 --> 00:31:22 guy, and I've been blessed. But I am going to do the very thing that
326 00:31:22 --> 00:31:25 everybody's been barking about, pointing to this, and point to that. I'm going to
327 00:31:25 --> 00:31:28 go through every bunch of bullshit that people say I rebranded. I'm going to go
328 00:31:28 --> 00:31:31 into the books. I'm going to go into the page numbers. I'm going to do a
329 00:31:31 --> 00:31:35 documentary on my own stuff and show you that my stuff is not in Wyckoff. It is
330 00:31:35 --> 00:31:39 not in supply and demand. It is not in any of this other stuff. I'm going to
331 00:31:39 --> 00:31:42 take you into the books. Okay, we're gonna prove this shit once and for all.
332 00:31:42 --> 00:31:46 I have no problem doing over the holidays, January, 1, New Year's Eve,
333 00:31:46 --> 00:31:49 there'll be a documentary where I'm showing you that everything you've heard
334 00:31:49 --> 00:31:52 from all these people are is absolutely utter bullshit. Okay? But you also get
335 00:31:52 --> 00:31:55 to see me credit the people that were influences to me, but you'll see that
336 00:31:55 --> 00:32:01 there's absolutely no footprint at all in what I'm doing today. I was
337 00:32:01 --> 00:32:06 influenced by certain individuals, but they themselves have no hand in what it
338 00:32:06 --> 00:32:12 is I'm doing. Like, for instance, Linda brash, I couldn't understand stop rates.
339 00:32:13 --> 00:32:17 Like, I that's I just didn't understand that. And that book street smarts, it
340 00:32:17 --> 00:32:20 was such a simple little approach to teaching it. I was like, Oh, wow, I
341 00:32:20 --> 00:32:22 understand that. That's what's been happening to me.
342 00:32:24 --> 00:32:29 Then I was like, Okay, well, if she's teaching that, you can go against that
343 00:32:29 --> 00:32:32 idea. I never thought about cannibalizing another trader. I was just
344 00:32:32 --> 00:32:35 trying to think, hope I'm right, like a lottery ticket, like I hope I'm right,
345 00:32:35 --> 00:32:38 not thinking about the other person on the other side of my trade. That that
346 00:32:38 --> 00:32:43 was the epiphany from that book. That's what I took away from it. Not that I
347 00:32:43 --> 00:32:47 trade 21 day highs or 20 day highs or lows. You don't see me mentioning any of
348 00:32:47 --> 00:32:52 that. I'm looking at how many, how many candlesticks is this? Candlesticks high
349 00:32:52 --> 00:32:58 from this one? It's not 20 that's not 20 candles. But that's what that book
350 00:32:58 --> 00:33:02 teaches. Find the highest high in the last 20 days, or whatever time frame
351 00:33:02 --> 00:33:07 you're using, but they teach day and for the lowest low in the last 20 days. And
352 00:33:07 --> 00:33:12 if it goes below that, Turtle suit would buy the break below the old low, or
353 00:33:12 --> 00:33:16 turtle suit would sell short above the old high in the last 20 days. The
354 00:33:16 --> 00:33:20 highest high, if it goes above that, that pattern that's taught in that book
355 00:33:20 --> 00:33:24 is a fading of that move because the turtles Richard Dennis taught these
356 00:33:24 --> 00:33:28 individuals off the street how to use a breakout system. It was a long term
357 00:33:28 --> 00:33:34 trend filing model, and it had a very, very low success rate, but the times
358 00:33:34 --> 00:33:38 that was correct, it would capture these huge long term trends, and it would pay
359 00:33:38 --> 00:33:43 off all the numerous losses that it would accrue. Well, I don't want to
360 00:33:43 --> 00:33:48 trade with something like that. So her idea, and Larry Connor's idea was by
361 00:33:48 --> 00:33:53 presenting that that pattern, by capitalizing on the low strike rate and
362 00:33:53 --> 00:33:58 success of their model. And they call themselves the turtles. And I love the
363 00:33:58 --> 00:34:02 name. It's fun. It's like a pun against it. They're, they're souped. They're,
364 00:34:02 --> 00:34:06 they're, they're, they end up in the soup, turtle soup. So it's a false
365 00:34:06 --> 00:34:09 breakout pattern that capitalized on the low strike rate of Richard Dennis's
366 00:34:10 --> 00:34:13 approach to teaching people long term trend following models and the turtles
367 00:34:13 --> 00:34:16 were able to make hundreds of millions of dollars. They were they were managing
368 00:34:16 --> 00:34:22 hundreds of millions of dollars. So you don't need to be successful in terms of
369 00:34:22 --> 00:34:27 a high strike rate. But to me, as a man, I wasn't impressed by that. So it taught
370 00:34:27 --> 00:34:32 me. It taught me how to look at stop hunts and how I can engage that on
371 00:34:32 --> 00:34:37 smaller time frames and be a short term surgical striker. Go in day trade just
372 00:34:37 --> 00:34:42 like that. And that's that was the beginning foundation of my intraday
373 00:34:42 --> 00:34:47 model of looking for stops. Now that is not in street smarts, but the idea of
374 00:34:48 --> 00:34:50 getting stopped out and being on the wrong side of the marketplace. That's
375 00:34:50 --> 00:34:53 how I understood it, because I couldn't understand by anything what Larry
376 00:34:53 --> 00:34:56 Williams was teaching, and I'm sure, going back through it, I can point to,
377 00:34:56 --> 00:34:59 yeah, there's where he did it, but I didn't understand it then I was 20.
378 00:35:00 --> 00:35:03 Years old. I was in a rush to get out of job. I was doing all those same things
379 00:35:03 --> 00:35:06 you're going through, and you hear me say certain things in videos because
380 00:35:06 --> 00:35:09 you're rushing through. You've been working, you're you're on the weekend,
381 00:35:09 --> 00:35:12 trying to cram as many days you can because you want to pass a funded
382 00:35:12 --> 00:35:15 account challenge and get paid out. You go back and watch the same video from
383 00:35:15 --> 00:35:18 me, and you're like, damn it. He must have made an update where he had this
384 00:35:18 --> 00:35:21 video, because I didn't hear it the first time. And you can watch the same
385 00:35:21 --> 00:35:25 video and hear something new, because there's a lot of information being
386 00:35:25 --> 00:35:29 presented. Well, I had lots of books, and I would go through them quicker than
387 00:35:29 --> 00:35:33 I should have, because it was like a kid in a candy store. And all of this means
388 00:35:33 --> 00:35:36 something, folks, for the teacher, like, don't get on with it. I'm getting on
389 00:35:36 --> 00:35:41 with it. The point is, when I'm teaching, you're going to gravitate to
390 00:35:41 --> 00:35:45 certain things and have more emphasis placed on them, and you're not going to
391 00:35:45 --> 00:35:49 have the emphasis placed on the things that you should have. And you won't
392 00:35:49 --> 00:35:53 determine that or figure that out until afterwards, you're going to go back,
393 00:35:53 --> 00:35:56 because you have more experience, and you go through the information again,
394 00:35:56 --> 00:36:03 say, Oh, wow, I can see how that fits now. And that's what mentoring is. You
395 00:36:03 --> 00:36:07 don't learn it one time in a five minute video. There's no way for me to condense
396 00:36:07 --> 00:36:11 this, I promise you. You have to go through it modularly, step by step, and
397 00:36:11 --> 00:36:16 expose yourself to it every single trading day and on the weekends, at
398 00:36:16 --> 00:36:20 least one day. On the weekend, spend an hour 90 minutes to it and just study,
399 00:36:20 --> 00:36:25 and you got to keep a balanced life. But anyway, we're in the outside the 15
400 00:36:25 --> 00:36:33 minute time frame. But the we get into a 15 minute time frame, this is when if I
401 00:36:33 --> 00:36:37 am going to start looking at SMT, if I'm ever going to consider doing it, I'm
402 00:36:37 --> 00:36:42 going to look at that. Because the 15 minute time frame for Caleb and for a 15
403 00:36:42 --> 00:36:47 minute time frame for myself, it's a bellwether time frame, meaning that I'm
404 00:36:47 --> 00:36:52 going to lean on a lot of information that this time frame gives me, because I
405 00:36:52 --> 00:36:58 can see 60 minute highs on a 15 minute chart. I can see a four hour high or
406 00:36:58 --> 00:37:02 four hour low on a 15 minute time frame. I don't need those 60 minute charts. I
407 00:37:02 --> 00:37:04 don't need those four hour charts. I don't need a two hour chart. I don't
408 00:37:04 --> 00:37:07 need a three hour chart. I don't need a daily chart. I don't need a weekly
409 00:37:07 --> 00:37:11 chart. I can open up just look at a 15 minute time frame, and I have everything
410 00:37:11 --> 00:37:15 I need to be a day trader, everything. Because as I'm going to teach you this
411 00:37:15 --> 00:37:18 week, I'm going to teach you a little exercise, how you can practice every
412 00:37:18 --> 00:37:22 single day, and I call it volatility pinball, where you're going to be buying
413 00:37:22 --> 00:37:25 and selling up and down, up and down all day long. And that's how I used I just
414 00:37:25 --> 00:37:30 recently did the exercise with my private mentorship, where I'm buying and
415 00:37:30 --> 00:37:34 selling in the same day in the same session, and I'm trying to communicate
416 00:37:34 --> 00:37:37 how you desensitize yourself. Because many of you are probably like I was. I
417 00:37:37 --> 00:37:41 was scared to get into a trade. I was scared. I was afraid that I was going to
418 00:37:41 --> 00:37:45 have another losing trade. I was afraid that I wasn't going to get the right
419 00:37:45 --> 00:37:49 entry point. I was afraid if I put my stop loss in, it'd be, it would be hit,
420 00:37:49 --> 00:37:53 no matter where it was, because I had losing trades. In my mind, I imagined
421 00:37:53 --> 00:37:56 that if I got short, like, say, for instance, saying, hypothetically, say, I
422 00:37:56 --> 00:38:02 got short now, and if I wanted to believe that the stop loss placed above
423 00:38:02 --> 00:38:06 this high would be my initial idea. I would think, no, I gotta go higher than
424 00:38:06 --> 00:38:12 that. So where would I go? All right, I'll put it over here, but as soon as I
425 00:38:12 --> 00:38:16 put the trade on, I'm expecting some wild wick to come all the way up here.
426 00:38:16 --> 00:38:21 You ever had that experience? Send me a tweet, and you can put emojis on it if
427 00:38:21 --> 00:38:24 you want, but tell me if that's ever happened to you when you when you've had
428 00:38:24 --> 00:38:29 a losing trade or a series of losing trades. It's, I don't know what happened
429 00:38:29 --> 00:38:35 in my mind, as a 20 year old, I expected some kind of just wild, immediate run up
430 00:38:35 --> 00:38:39 right to my stop it's it almost like conditions you to expect, no matter
431 00:38:39 --> 00:38:42 where you put your stop loss, it's going to reach for you and get you. That's
432 00:38:42 --> 00:38:46 what I was that's that's exactly what I was suffering from when I was trying to
433 00:38:46 --> 00:38:51 teach myself how to spell sell short, I could buy. And I never had that problem,
434 00:38:52 --> 00:38:55 like I wasn't afraid that that wild, weird wick would drop down real quick
435 00:38:55 --> 00:38:58 and get my stop. I never had that experience. But when I was trying to
436 00:38:58 --> 00:39:02 teach myself how to trust being short or be a short seller, because I've never
437 00:39:02 --> 00:39:07 done it before. Every single time I put a short on, I was afraid that it was
438 00:39:07 --> 00:39:11 going to create this really big, open, high, lows, closed bar, because that's
439 00:39:11 --> 00:39:14 what I was using back then, not candlesticks. My eyes were better back
440 00:39:14 --> 00:39:20 then, too. But I was expecting some wild, weird, freaky candle, or the
441 00:39:20 --> 00:39:25 equivalent today of a candle to come up and stop me out. And that's an
442 00:39:25 --> 00:39:32 unrealistic fear. It took me years to conquer that fear. I had anxiety every
443 00:39:32 --> 00:39:36 single time I put I put a short on because I was expecting some what if
444 00:39:36 --> 00:39:42 scenario. What if it did this? What if it did that? And many times it didn't do
445 00:39:42 --> 00:39:45 it at all. A few times it stopped me out, but it never created that monster
446 00:39:45 --> 00:39:52 candle that came out of nowhere like an ogre, you know. But anyway, let's get on
447 00:39:52 --> 00:39:58 with this. I would use SMT on a 15 minute time frame because it's my
448 00:39:58 --> 00:40:02 Bellwether chart. So in other words. Because this is my go to time frame.
449 00:40:02 --> 00:40:07 This is my get up and go like my gone in 60 seconds. Type time frame, like I can
450 00:40:07 --> 00:40:11 I can make everything I'd ever need in terms of narrative bias, drawing,
451 00:40:11 --> 00:40:17 liquidity, reversals, continuations, inefficiencies, stops that I'm going to
452 00:40:17 --> 00:40:22 aim for. You know, everything I can pull right from this time frame, you may
453 00:40:22 --> 00:40:26 require a little bit, little bit more additional information by having a view
454 00:40:26 --> 00:40:30 of a four hour chart or a three hour chart, a two hour chart, a one hour
455 00:40:30 --> 00:40:36 chart, you may, you may need to refer to that that is absolutely 100% fine. That
456 00:40:36 --> 00:40:39 doesn't mean you're less of a trader than anyone else. It doesn't mean you're
457 00:40:39 --> 00:40:42 doing what you're doing here incorrectly just means you're getting more
458 00:40:42 --> 00:40:45 information. There's nothing wrong with more information. You just got to make
459 00:40:45 --> 00:40:48 sure that you're not inundating yourself with too much information that causes
460 00:40:48 --> 00:40:53 you conflicting analysis. So that's why I strip it down to just give myself the
461 00:40:53 --> 00:40:58 daily and from the daily I'll drop down to a 15 minute time frame. I'm going to
462 00:40:58 --> 00:41:01 skip over four hour through to the 60 minute and go right to the nuts and
463 00:41:01 --> 00:41:04 bolts of 15 minute time frame. So minute time frame. So if I'm going to look at
464 00:41:05 --> 00:41:10 SMT, I would do it here. So just notice the lay the lane here. We have a
465 00:41:10 --> 00:41:15 slightly lower high here, higher high here, consecutive little higher highs in
466 00:41:15 --> 00:41:25 here. And then I would refer to, yes, you can see the high is higher here. Now
467 00:41:25 --> 00:41:30 when the NASDAQ, we didn't have that says, SMT, so NASDAQ at that time since
468 00:41:30 --> 00:41:35 then, it's been weaker. Just remember these, these reference points here, this
469 00:41:35 --> 00:41:39 high is lower than this one. And now look at this. See this high here, this
470 00:41:39 --> 00:41:46 one's lower on es than it is for what NASDAQ so S, P has an S and T
471 00:41:46 --> 00:41:50 divergence. This high doesn't make the same high that we see in NASDAQ. And
472 00:41:50 --> 00:41:56 watch watching a toggle back, see, so that's why you're getting that X ray
473 00:41:56 --> 00:42:00 view behind the scenes. But you would already know being short in this
474 00:42:00 --> 00:42:05 inefficiency is appropriate, because you have this lower high than this one
475 00:42:05 --> 00:42:11 relative to what we just saw on es so on my notepad, I just simply note the time
476 00:42:13 --> 00:42:20 that at 8pm Sunday, which is during Asia last night that There was an SMT
477 00:42:20 --> 00:42:26 divergence 15 minute time frame, at eight o'clock between NASDAQ and ES and
478 00:42:26 --> 00:42:30 NASDAQ is the weaker. So I just put an NQ and a negative next to it. That's
479 00:42:30 --> 00:42:34 what I'm saying. Like, my notepad isn't going to help you do anything except for
480 00:42:35 --> 00:42:39 just I'm referencing what I'm teaching you. I'm not drawing it on my charts,
481 00:42:39 --> 00:42:42 but I have the information on my notepad. That's all I'm doing, folks,
482 00:42:42 --> 00:42:47 I'm not hiding it from you. I know if I show this one time, everybody's going to
483 00:42:47 --> 00:42:50 say, Hey, could you just show us your notepad today? Can you just show us your
484 00:42:50 --> 00:42:53 note? I'm not getting into that. Okay, this is something I've been doing for a
485 00:42:53 --> 00:42:57 long, long time. It's it just helps me reference things. And when I'm out and
486 00:42:57 --> 00:43:03 about, or when I was watching CNBC, I can see that ticker tape at the bottom.
487 00:43:04 --> 00:43:08 And every 10 minutes, the futures market would come by, and the forex market
488 00:43:08 --> 00:43:12 would come by, and it would tell me where I'm at, and because I know where
489 00:43:12 --> 00:43:15 we were, highest, high, lowest, low in the last hour, just by using the ticker
490 00:43:16 --> 00:43:19 you can trade like that. Having this information, you're not going to get
491 00:43:19 --> 00:43:23 precision entries. You don't need that if you're trading for the daily range.
492 00:43:24 --> 00:43:29 But when you combine what I'm teaching you, and you study how you can watch the
493 00:43:29 --> 00:43:33 tape, really watch the tape. I'm not talking about level two data, these
494 00:43:33 --> 00:43:36 people that, these jokers that talk that stuff. Oh, let me see your level two
495 00:43:36 --> 00:43:42 data. That is Mickey Mouse level crap, like it's literally garbage. You're
496 00:43:42 --> 00:43:46 championing something that is literally being used against you, and you're
497 00:43:46 --> 00:43:50 calling yourself informed money because you're looking at it like that. That's
498 00:43:50 --> 00:43:53 the epitome of asshole, like you're you're literally, don't you have no idea
499 00:43:53 --> 00:43:56 what you're talking about. But it seems like you're informed, doesn't it? It
500 00:43:56 --> 00:44:01 looks cool and complicated when you have that volume bars. We've always had the
501 00:44:01 --> 00:44:06 volume at the bottom of the chart, and now volume profile, they want to make
502 00:44:06 --> 00:44:09 you feel like you got something new. They take that and they turn it
503 00:44:09 --> 00:44:14 horizontally to now vertically. Oh, look at that. It's no different than if you
504 00:44:14 --> 00:44:18 just would have laid it down on the bottom. You're looking at something
505 00:44:18 --> 00:44:24 that's already happened since you've already seen it happen, okay, wonderful,
506 00:44:24 --> 00:44:28 you recorded something already happened. What was the weather yesterday? Right?
507 00:44:28 --> 00:44:32 Does that mean you got to wear galoshes today and rain boots? No, it just means
508 00:44:32 --> 00:44:35 that you knew what the weather was yesterday. Well, when you see the
509 00:44:35 --> 00:44:41 volume, wonderful, you counted how many transactions took place there.
510 00:44:41 --> 00:44:45 Wonderful. I don't care about that. That shits in my rear view mirror. I'm
511 00:44:45 --> 00:44:49 already looking down the road, 15 to 20 minutes down the road. I'm way down
512 00:44:49 --> 00:44:53 there looking for hazards and opportunities. You're all looking at
513 00:44:53 --> 00:44:55 stuff in the rear view mirror, and you're wondering why you're sitting
514 00:44:55 --> 00:44:58 there all day long, waiting for setups. Oh, I'm waiting for something to appear.
515 00:44:58 --> 00:45:03 I'm waiting for this. I'm waiting for that. Yeah, I'm anticipating. I know
516 00:45:03 --> 00:45:07 where my stuff's going to be at. And you don't need the SMT divergence here to
517 00:45:07 --> 00:45:10 tell you to get into a trade, because you can see that that inefficiency there
518 00:45:10 --> 00:45:15 is what you'd be entering. You don't need to have any kind of SMT diversions
519 00:45:15 --> 00:45:18 to tell you that trade's good because it's already there. What makes it good?
520 00:45:20 --> 00:45:26 Sell side, buy side, both taken when we had a divergence back here, showing you
521 00:45:26 --> 00:45:31 that the NASDAQ was weak. So we already have a built in what we have a we have a
522 00:45:31 --> 00:45:37 built in heaviness on NASDAQ. It's heavy, and this just so happened to be a
523 00:45:37 --> 00:45:42 little bit more aggressive, just to get in here, to offer a nice premium. What
524 00:45:42 --> 00:45:49 makes this a premium? Why is this wicker here? Why is it a premium? Because if
525 00:45:49 --> 00:45:53 you look at the range from this candle, high, down the disc candle low, right
526 00:45:53 --> 00:45:55 there, I'm going to change the color. You can see
527 00:46:01 --> 00:46:06 it. Can we draw it out here is that wick above the middle center line. See these
528 00:46:06 --> 00:46:11 little outline squares here, that black line right there, that wick right here,
529 00:46:11 --> 00:46:16 that wick right there, that wick right there. Either of them could be short
530 00:46:16 --> 00:46:22 entries, because you're in a premium, because you're inside this inefficiency
531 00:46:22 --> 00:46:27 between this candle one, candle two, candle three, the inefficiency is always
532 00:46:27 --> 00:46:36 candle number two. Your stop, if it can be afforded to you, is always above
533 00:46:36 --> 00:46:40 candlestick number two. But if they're small ranges like you're seeing here,
534 00:46:41 --> 00:46:46 you can use the candlestick number three body, if it has a wick. You can use
535 00:46:46 --> 00:46:50 consequent encroachment on that wick. Don't look at that range from where
536 00:46:50 --> 00:46:53 you'd be entering and think, Okay, this is too big of a stop. I don't want to do
537 00:46:53 --> 00:46:58 that. You should always err on the side of what's my smallest risk. Because
538 00:46:58 --> 00:47:02 you're learning Caleb, you're learning. It's not about impressing that with how
539 00:47:02 --> 00:47:06 much you're making. You're going to impress me by doing the very least and
540 00:47:06 --> 00:47:11 being consistent with it, because if you get that under your belt, that is the
541 00:47:11 --> 00:47:16 underlying cookie cutter, that all you have to do is replicate that with more
542 00:47:16 --> 00:47:23 of the same multiplying the same effort of something that's done well is easy to
543 00:47:23 --> 00:47:27 do when you learn how to do it well and consistently, but you have to do it with
544 00:47:27 --> 00:47:31 the smallest degree of risk. You have to do it the smallest degree of leverage.
545 00:47:32 --> 00:47:35 And if you don't, you're going to hear my puppies and background snoring, and I
546 00:47:35 --> 00:47:39 can't do anything about that, because if I if I go outside the room, they're
547 00:47:39 --> 00:47:42 gonna be barking hollering. I don't want that, so just know you're probably going
548 00:47:42 --> 00:47:46 to hear that. It would get on my nerves. See if I heard it live stream too. So
549 00:47:46 --> 00:47:50 that's a premium, but it's also SMT divergence, okay, in case you missed it,
550 00:47:50 --> 00:47:54 I'm going to draw it. No, I won't. I won't draw it. I'm just going to keep
551 00:47:54 --> 00:48:00 the way with I did enough talking about it. So we have the opening of Sunday's
552 00:48:01 --> 00:48:06 gap here. That's 6pm and that's the summit price on Friday. That's what
553 00:48:06 --> 00:48:11 these dash lines are. That is simply just me annotating the weekly gap. So
554 00:48:11 --> 00:48:15 it's new week, opening gap, and now on the on the 15 minute time frame, I'm
555 00:48:15 --> 00:48:19 going to zoom out. Okay, I'm going to zoom out and take in more information.
556 00:48:21 --> 00:48:25 Hang one second. We have headphones on. Be careful right now.
557 00:48:30 --> 00:48:38 Sorry about that. I have to just disturb her a little bit because she's starting
558 00:48:38 --> 00:48:48 to really. Saw some logs over there. I All right. So we have, oh, there's those
559 00:48:48 --> 00:48:57 daily relative equal lows, and look what is below it. We have the weekly buy,
560 00:48:57 --> 00:49:00 sign and balance, sell sign and efficiency. Remember, on the weekly
561 00:49:00 --> 00:49:05 chart, I said, I think that we could explore going down into the very
562 00:49:05 --> 00:49:10 minimum, the high of that busy on the weekly chart, which is the high, that
563 00:49:10 --> 00:49:16 blue shaded area that's anchored on the weekly chart, but it just so happens to
564 00:49:16 --> 00:49:23 be inside of the same proximity of this low and that low. So what's resting
565 00:49:23 --> 00:49:36 right below here? Sell side, liquidity. So we can now take and as I do this,
566 00:49:36 --> 00:49:41 Caleb, you can, you can only this time, you can do screenshots of my charts
567 00:49:41 --> 00:49:44 while I'm doing this live stream, so that way you can have it. It'll save you
568 00:49:44 --> 00:49:51 some time, but this is what you're going to be doing. You do this every single
569 00:49:51 --> 00:49:56 day. You go through your charts and you look at what was given to you with too
570 00:49:56 --> 00:50:03 big and. Okay, so you have sell side liquidity below these relative equal
571 00:50:03 --> 00:50:12 lows, and now with September 20 thirds, weekly low, you now can state also in
572 00:50:12 --> 00:50:26 there that it is also 15 min time frame, relative equal lows sell side, all
573 00:50:26 --> 00:50:31 right. So now stream screenshotting this, because you can see where the
574 00:50:31 --> 00:50:38 reference point is, and then going back over to where price is. Now we have a
575 00:50:38 --> 00:50:42 little inefficiency right now we're trading up into, and we're also inside
576 00:50:42 --> 00:50:47 of another inefficiency that's being shown. I made the mistake of talking
577 00:50:49 --> 00:50:54 when you draw your inefficiencies, you want to annotate them as well so you can
578 00:50:55 --> 00:50:59 toggle them and type in whatever time frame it's anchored to. That way, when
579 00:50:59 --> 00:51:03 you're looking at them, they're much more meaningful. I don't need to have
580 00:51:03 --> 00:51:06 them labeled, because I'm used to not having them at all except for just the
581 00:51:06 --> 00:51:12 numerical values. So when I'm watching price, I'm very frequently just watching
582 00:51:12 --> 00:51:17 this over here, this price axis. I'm literally watching that more than I'm
583 00:51:17 --> 00:51:21 watching the candlesticks, because what I'm watching over here I'm directly
584 00:51:21 --> 00:51:24 correlating to what I have in my notepad, which is every one of these
585 00:51:24 --> 00:51:28 reference points, and I'm constantly writing them in order of where they're
586 00:51:28 --> 00:51:33 at. In other words, I don't write them in a list that I find this value first,
587 00:51:33 --> 00:51:36 and then below it I'll find another value here, and then I find another
588 00:51:36 --> 00:51:40 value. I'm not doing that on my notepad. I'm putting them in the order that they
589 00:51:40 --> 00:51:49 would be on a chart. So in other words, if a price level is 20,000 01, 3.75 I'm
590 00:51:49 --> 00:51:56 not going to write this. This price here at 20,001 93, if I find that value as a
591 00:51:56 --> 00:52:00 PD array, I'm not going to write that underneath this one, because that's not
592 00:52:00 --> 00:52:06 what I'm looking at. I'm looking at how the daily range is going to map out on a
593 00:52:06 --> 00:52:10 piece of paper in a notepad form. And because it's on a notepad, what I do is,
594 00:52:10 --> 00:52:16 every single hour, I'm also writing down the high and the low of that hour. And
595 00:52:16 --> 00:52:22 I'm I'm getting a numerical interpretation of what that daily
596 00:52:22 --> 00:52:28 candlesticks doing. And I don't need I don't need this chart. I don't need that
597 00:52:29 --> 00:52:32 you're asking me to show you something that's going to open up a whole
598 00:52:32 --> 00:52:36 panorama, not Panama, but Pandora's box of questions that I don't want to go
599 00:52:36 --> 00:52:39 through because I don't. It's just something I've been doing for 30 years,
600 00:52:39 --> 00:52:43 and you're probably never going to do it right, and I don't want to teach it,
601 00:52:43 --> 00:52:46 because it's not necessary use the charts. The charts are going to tell you
602 00:52:46 --> 00:52:49 everything you need. It's just something I started because I had to do things
603 00:52:49 --> 00:52:53 like this because I wasn't able to watch real time price action. That's all
604 00:52:53 --> 00:52:57 that's all that, that's all that it is. And then when I started using this same
605 00:52:57 --> 00:53:01 idea, when I was able to watch real time price data, I would keep track of it
606 00:53:01 --> 00:53:04 intraday, and that would add more information. I didn't have all these
607 00:53:04 --> 00:53:08 reference points because I didn't see them driving around in a step band when
608 00:53:08 --> 00:53:12 I was servicing soda machines and candy machines and cold food and coffee
609 00:53:12 --> 00:53:18 machines. That was my job, but I was so used to doing it was just a habit, and
610 00:53:18 --> 00:53:21 that's what I have. I have a notepad with these reference points. It's not
611 00:53:21 --> 00:53:24 something that's scientific, that's going to make your trading better. It
612 00:53:24 --> 00:53:28 just means that that's what I do. You don't need to do that. You just use the
613 00:53:28 --> 00:53:32 charts, because the chart's going to tell you everything you need. And you
614 00:53:32 --> 00:53:35 want to use a time based chart. You don't want to be using Renko Bars. You
615 00:53:35 --> 00:53:41 don't want to be doing any kind of range bars. All that stuff is going to hide
616 00:53:41 --> 00:53:47 the very things I'm teaching you that is time based. The algorithm operates ON
617 00:53:47 --> 00:53:53 Time First, if you're using Renko Bars, or if you're using shit, there's all
618 00:53:53 --> 00:53:57 kinds of stuff out there that anything like a range bar, Renko Bars, or the
619 00:53:57 --> 00:54:02 equivalent, if they're not showing you to open high, low and close on an
620 00:54:02 --> 00:54:06 interval of time. You're not going to be able to see what the algorithm is doing.
621 00:54:06 --> 00:54:09 I promise you that everybody out there that wants to talk algorithmic shit,
622 00:54:09 --> 00:54:13 they just placed that little name, that buzzword, on there, because it's going
623 00:54:13 --> 00:54:18 to make people think they're informed. I'm teaching you how to look at the very
624 00:54:18 --> 00:54:24 aspects of time, because the time based chart and a candlestick is easy to see
625 00:54:24 --> 00:54:31 versus an open, high, low And close bar, this small, little inefficiency in here,
626 00:54:31 --> 00:54:31 I
627 00:54:44 --> 00:54:49 I know, Daniel, I'm not drinking from you Yeti, I was in a rush to get in
628 00:54:49 --> 00:54:54 front of the charts this morning. I have used it several times there, by the way.
629 00:54:57 --> 00:55:03 Who's Daniel? I. Alright, so we have a sibing here, sells out, balance, buy,
630 00:55:03 --> 00:55:11 sign, efficiency. And we have the 60 minute discount wick, consequent
631 00:55:11 --> 00:55:15 encroachment. That means, on an hourly chart, that big, long wick that went
632 00:55:15 --> 00:55:20 lower, that made a swing low at that's half of that wick. So in my mind, before
633 00:55:20 --> 00:55:26 we drop down to a lower five minute chart. Now, in my mind, I'm anticipating
634 00:55:27 --> 00:55:33 a run to this level. It might want to go down below it, come back up dilly dally,
635 00:55:33 --> 00:55:37 around that consequent encroachment level, worst case scenario, and then
636 00:55:37 --> 00:55:42 dive into, in, into the sell side, resting around that 19,009 53, level.
637 00:55:42 --> 00:55:54 Okay, so I anticipate that happening. I am not imposing my will on the market.
638 00:55:54 --> 00:56:00 I'm not saying it has to happen because I want this to happen. I wrote these
639 00:56:00 --> 00:56:05 things on my chart, so therefore it has to happen? No, the market has to
640 00:56:05 --> 00:56:09 indicate that it wants to do that. It needs to do certain things, and we're
641 00:56:09 --> 00:56:14 going to look at that today, okay, but up till now, this is my pre market
642 00:56:15 --> 00:56:19 analysis approach. This is all it is. Is it complicated? No, I did more talking
643 00:56:19 --> 00:56:23 about other things. Probably pissed a lot of you off, but it's a matter of
644 00:56:23 --> 00:56:27 simply doing what I just did here, looking for reference points from the
645 00:56:27 --> 00:56:31 higher Time Frame weekly chart. Because you're going to have to refer to, where
646 00:56:31 --> 00:56:33 are we at? We're going to be reaching for the weekly chart. Because if you
647 00:56:33 --> 00:56:37 don't refer to that, you're going to hide all of these really big runs that
648 00:56:37 --> 00:56:49 might jump out at you unaware. You'll be unaware, and you won't be expecting big
649 00:56:49 --> 00:56:54 moves if you don't have the big move perspective. Timeframe in mind, which is
650 00:56:54 --> 00:57:01 the weekly chart, a sustained price run is going to unfold if the weekly chart,
651 00:57:01 --> 00:57:06 if the monthly chart is indicating that it's likely to go to any given higher or
652 00:57:06 --> 00:57:10 lower price. But if you're framing your trade on the basis of just a 15 minute
653 00:57:10 --> 00:57:15 time frame, and that's all you do, if that's all you do, you won't have the
654 00:57:15 --> 00:57:20 perspective that's required to capture these big monster several 100 handle
655 00:57:20 --> 00:57:28 runs, even if you are not a swing trader or a short term trader. But wouldn't it
656 00:57:28 --> 00:57:32 make sense if you could just go into the chart one time at the beginning of the
657 00:57:32 --> 00:57:36 week, say, Okay, here's the lay to land. This is what could happen, and at least
658 00:57:36 --> 00:57:42 have it on your chart that way, because they're in your charts. Now they're
659 00:57:42 --> 00:57:46 annotated in there. You won't forget about them, because as price if, let me
660 00:57:46 --> 00:57:49 ask you this, if price started to break down in here, and it got down to this
661 00:57:49 --> 00:57:53 level here, knowing what I've already shown you, would it be easy now, because
662 00:57:53 --> 00:57:56 I've walked you through it, would it be easy for you to trust that it's going to
663 00:57:56 --> 00:57:58 at least trade down to the consequent question of that width? If it was
664 00:57:58 --> 00:58:01 trading like right here, would it be reasonable? Would it be easier for you
665 00:58:01 --> 00:58:06 to trust that versus right now? Do you feel confident that it's going to drop
666 00:58:06 --> 00:58:09 right from here? Some of you may not think it's it's going to do that. Some
667 00:58:09 --> 00:58:12 of you might think it's going to go higher for it does that. ICT, or you're
668 00:58:12 --> 00:58:16 wrong. ICT, I'm going long, whatever the point is on my question was, if it
669 00:58:16 --> 00:58:22 dropped sharply and was trading right about here, would it be easy at that
670 00:58:22 --> 00:58:26 time for you to submit to the idea that it's probably going to trade down to
671 00:58:26 --> 00:58:30 that mid wick, mid wick level on the hourly chart, and if it went through
672 00:58:30 --> 00:58:34 that, wouldn't it be reasonable to see it trade down into these relative equal
673 00:58:34 --> 00:58:40 lows, because they're really smooth, right? Can you see how price could work
674 00:58:40 --> 00:58:45 from this level here, not at that level specifically, but in this general
675 00:58:45 --> 00:58:49 region, because we have an inefficiency that's shaded there. Can you see how it
676 00:58:49 --> 00:58:55 can move from this one to the blue one? Can you visually see how that could be
677 00:58:55 --> 00:58:59 delivered? Because if you can't see that, that's going to be problematic for
678 00:58:59 --> 00:59:02 your trading, because you have to be able to see your setups before they're
679 00:59:02 --> 00:59:07 there. You have to be able to see how that could pan out. And that's an
680 00:59:07 --> 00:59:10 experience driven thing. It's not something that you're going to be able
681 00:59:10 --> 00:59:15 to see the first time. Caleb, it's over time back testing. That's the point of
682 00:59:15 --> 00:59:18 taking screenshots of trades that you did not do, but you mark them up, and
683 00:59:18 --> 00:59:21 you talk in the chart annotations like you've seen it coming, and you
684 00:59:21 --> 00:59:25 congratulate yourself, and you're tricking your subconscious mind. And I'm
685 00:59:25 --> 00:59:29 literally going to be doing two days, not every day, if I'm going to do two
686 00:59:29 --> 00:59:33 days Caleb, where I'm actually going to annotate in a journal perspective, that
687 00:59:33 --> 00:59:37 way you see exactly what I'm talking about when I'm saying that. You need a
688 00:59:37 --> 00:59:41 sweet self talk yourself into seeing it, but it's going to be in hindsight.
689 00:59:41 --> 00:59:44 You're going to see it in hindsight, because you don't have the skill set
690 00:59:44 --> 00:59:48 yet, but by recording it and annotating your chart with the things I teach my
691 00:59:48 --> 00:59:54 students, it tricks your subconscious mind so that way, when they look at your
692 00:59:54 --> 00:59:57 journal, but when they look at their journal, and when you look at your
693 00:59:57 --> 01:00:01 journal on the weekend and you read your own comment. Saying that, yes, it was
694 01:00:02 --> 01:00:05 amazing to see how I expected this to pan out just like this. It's textbook.
695 01:00:06 --> 01:00:14 You keep giving yourself a cheerleading milestone. Every time a new chart's
696 01:00:15 --> 01:00:18 presented in your journal, you're annotating everything that happened in
697 01:00:18 --> 01:00:23 hindsight like you knew it was going to happen, and by doing that over a
698 01:00:23 --> 01:00:26 repetitive period of time, I don't know how long at times it's going to be for
699 01:00:26 --> 01:00:30 all of you, but over time, doing that as a ritual every single day. It's a
700 01:00:30 --> 01:00:36 routine. It's a regimen that you do every single day, and you journal every
701 01:00:36 --> 01:00:40 single day. You will get better at reading price. You'll see the setups
702 01:00:40 --> 01:00:44 before they form, you'll anticipate them, and then when they do form, you'll
703 01:00:44 --> 01:00:47 be able to learn how to trade them. Okay? And last week, I was supposed to
704 01:00:47 --> 01:00:51 do some work on limit orders. We'll absolutely be doing some of that today
705 01:00:51 --> 01:00:58 and throughout the week. But the the ability to see the potential, how it
706 01:00:58 --> 01:01:03 could deliver from this inefficiency down to that one. It makes sense that it
707 01:01:03 --> 01:01:09 could do that, and it need not be a overall reversal long term, and still
708 01:01:09 --> 01:01:14 see this deliver like that. It could go down here and upset this here and then
709 01:01:14 --> 01:01:18 create some important low and make a higher high and go to all time highs.
710 01:01:19 --> 01:01:22 Don't think that we're trying to predict, or that I'm trying to sell the
711 01:01:22 --> 01:01:26 idea that I'm predicting the top of the market. I'm not trying to do that. All
712 01:01:26 --> 01:01:30 I'm doing is I'm framing this is a best case scenario. This is how I frame it in
713 01:01:30 --> 01:01:35 my mind. Okay, when I go through my first my first analysis for the week,
714 01:01:35 --> 01:01:39 and my pre market analysis, I'm looking for things that I can hang my hat on and
715 01:01:39 --> 01:01:46 say, Okay, push comes to so I am going to submit myself to this above anything
716 01:01:46 --> 01:01:50 else. But if I don't have something that allows me to get in a trade like this,
717 01:01:50 --> 01:01:55 then I'm going to trade with less leverage when I'm taking longs. Do you
718 01:01:55 --> 01:02:00 see what I just did there? I gave myself permission to be wrong about this
719 01:02:00 --> 01:02:03 analysis, but this analysis, but this is the one that I'm going to do the heavy
720 01:02:03 --> 01:02:07 handed leverage on. So I want to be a short seller with my heaviest leverage,
721 01:02:07 --> 01:02:10 aiming for that sell side right there. That's, that's what I'm doing this week.
722 01:02:11 --> 01:02:15 It may not go there today, but that's what I'm looking for this week. That's
723 01:02:15 --> 01:02:23 my real good one shot, one kill setup. Hello. I'm, literally, I'm teaching
724 01:02:23 --> 01:02:28 everything that you've asked for. But can you imagine how I have to go through
725 01:02:28 --> 01:02:32 a lot of things that show you why it's important and what other things are not
726 01:02:32 --> 01:02:36 required? Because you've been watching lots of my videos and you think
727 01:02:36 --> 01:02:39 everything I've ever talked about is necessary for every trade that sets up
728 01:02:39 --> 01:02:45 in your in your in your time frame. It's not true. Not every single price run is
729 01:02:45 --> 01:02:49 going to have a propulsion block. Not every single price run is going to have
730 01:02:49 --> 01:02:53 an institutional entry. I'm sorry, institutional order, flow entry drill.
731 01:02:53 --> 01:02:57 Not every single one of them is going to have a breaker. Not every single one of
732 01:02:57 --> 01:03:03 them is going to have every PD array, but there will be a fair value gap in
733 01:03:03 --> 01:03:08 every fucking one of them. Okay, that's the one that's always going to be there.
734 01:03:08 --> 01:03:12 You may get a little late in the run, but that's okay, as long as that fair
735 01:03:12 --> 01:03:19 value gap is in a premium relative to the range that's going to expand from to
736 01:03:19 --> 01:03:23 the target. Target is this? Okay? This is Terminus. This is my if we trade the
737 01:03:23 --> 01:03:30 here, my best case scenario, my my weekly one shot, one kill, has been
738 01:03:30 --> 01:03:36 satisfied. If I do any other trading, it's just going to be scalps. Now I have
739 01:03:36 --> 01:03:42 answered a huge list of questions just with what I've done so far here as a
740 01:03:42 --> 01:03:50 monolog. Now, let's go down to a lower time frame, five minute chart. All
741 01:03:50 --> 01:03:55 right, so we're looking at a five minute chart with the new week opening gap.
742 01:03:55 --> 01:04:07 That's what the purple dash lines are. The only concern I have is that these
743 01:04:07 --> 01:04:13 highs, even though there was SMT between ES and the NASDAQ, recall that this high
744 01:04:13 --> 01:04:19 here on es was slightly higher than that of the respective high here. I'm going
745 01:04:19 --> 01:04:23 to toggle back to ES and show you in a second. Just give me a moment. But
746 01:04:23 --> 01:04:25 looking at this chart, if I'm wrong,
747 01:04:26 --> 01:04:30 I do believe that we're going to get down here, like based on what we have
748 01:04:30 --> 01:04:38 right now. What changes that? What makes me put that idea on the sidelines for a
749 01:04:38 --> 01:04:42 little while, until something gets back in favor of it, because I'm I'm not
750 01:04:42 --> 01:04:49 infallible. I have to have a contingency plan. If this is what I'm looking for,
751 01:04:49 --> 01:04:53 if I want to see price trade down there and I'm only interested in taking that
752 01:04:53 --> 01:04:56 type of trade, then what am I doing? I'm imposing my will, and I'm teaching you
753 01:04:56 --> 01:05:02 not to do that. Okay, give me one second, folks. Okay. The scalp.
754 01:05:16 --> 01:05:19 Scouts are there snowing obnoxiously, man, it's like a lumberjack of grief.
755 01:05:20 --> 01:05:26 So, I'm teaching you not to impose your will. Caleb, just because dad teaches
756 01:05:26 --> 01:05:30 you to do this with your analysis, it doesn't mean go in there thinking that
757 01:05:30 --> 01:05:35 it's going to be, it's going to be just like you think, because the market will
758 01:05:35 --> 01:05:39 humble you quickly. If you come in there with your will being imposed, it's going
759 01:05:39 --> 01:05:42 to take your will, chew it up, spit it out some days. And that's that's the
760 01:05:42 --> 01:05:49 reality of it. So you save yourself a lot of emotional damage, psychological
761 01:05:49 --> 01:05:54 impact that's adverse if you just open up the idea that you could potentially
762 01:05:54 --> 01:06:00 be wrong. But if given the opportunity to find a short trade, this is what I'm
763 01:06:00 --> 01:06:03 aiming for. I'm aiming for that down there, and everything I've taught on
764 01:06:03 --> 01:06:06 this YouTube channel, you all should be able to see how that fits perfectly.
765 01:06:07 --> 01:06:10 It's not something it's like, it's not a new science being taught here. You can
766 01:06:10 --> 01:06:14 clearly say, Oh, this makes perfect sense, even if the overall higher Time
767 01:06:14 --> 01:06:18 Frame bullishness is still going to be in play and it makes higher highs in the
768 01:06:18 --> 01:06:23 week after it goes down here, I don't care about that right now. I don't care
769 01:06:23 --> 01:06:27 about that. I just know that I am presently, at this moment. I'm not
770 01:06:27 --> 01:06:31 interested in being a buyer. I don't want to be a long holder. I want to see
771 01:06:31 --> 01:06:38 it trade down here, because think about what it does by doing that. Anyone
772 01:06:38 --> 01:06:41 that's long if it trades down here, this is the part for narrative purposes,
773 01:06:41 --> 01:06:45 because I've already given you a bias, but now I gotta tell you how it might
774 01:06:45 --> 01:06:51 deliver. So this is where I think it could go. Could and will. It is two
775 01:06:51 --> 01:06:57 different things, but if I can frame a narrative, a game plan, a way that the
776 01:06:57 --> 01:07:03 price action will be implemented in people's charts to entice them to lower,
777 01:07:03 --> 01:07:10 them, to unseat some, to allow their seat to be taken by someone else with
778 01:07:10 --> 01:07:15 deeper pockets. That's what narrative is. It's it's how the market will
779 01:07:15 --> 01:07:23 manipulate the participants and traders through sentiment or sudden movement in
780 01:07:23 --> 01:07:26 price action, because they're going to rush. They're afraid to miss a move, so
781 01:07:26 --> 01:07:29 they're going to chase price all these types of things. I start going through
782 01:07:29 --> 01:07:33 my mind. Think, how could that be implemented? Because just having this
783 01:07:33 --> 01:07:41 analysis is not enough. It gives you a foundation to operate in. But what can I
784 01:07:41 --> 01:07:46 do in my mind to flesh out a narrative? Why would it be going down in this blue
785 01:07:46 --> 01:07:52 area? You have to have the best case scenario on both sides for a narrative.
786 01:07:53 --> 01:07:59 What I mean by that I've already submitted to you that I am not trying to
787 01:07:59 --> 01:08:05 be someone that's trying to pick the top in the NASDAQ. I'm not trying to do
788 01:08:05 --> 01:08:10 that, and I'm not suggesting at any any capacity at all that by me expecting any
789 01:08:10 --> 01:08:14 kind of short in this area here to trade down here. That's not me predicting the
790 01:08:14 --> 01:08:19 top. And that wouldn't be unsettling for the underlying bullishness of the NASDAQ
791 01:08:19 --> 01:08:25 on a higher time frame. In fact, it's actually very constructive, because
792 01:08:25 --> 01:08:32 we've traded higher for a good period of time, over a month or so, and coming
793 01:08:32 --> 01:08:38 down here to absorb trail stop losses in the form of sell stops or sell side
794 01:08:38 --> 01:08:45 liquidity below relative equal lows, it's advantageous for people to take
795 01:08:45 --> 01:08:52 shorts off at that level. That's a good area for smart money to recoup their
796 01:08:52 --> 01:08:58 short position and cover. And if the market is in fact going to go higher,
797 01:08:58 --> 01:09:01 this would be a great place to take price down there so they can accumulate
798 01:09:01 --> 01:09:08 longs there. So what did I just do? I framed both sides of the narrative how
799 01:09:08 --> 01:09:16 retail can be cannibalized. So narrative is, how can price be used to facilitate
800 01:09:16 --> 01:09:22 the means of smart money getting in, holding to a particular price level, and
801 01:09:22 --> 01:09:25 then once it gets there, what would they do next? And how would that be
802 01:09:25 --> 01:09:30 advantageous for them? I may I may be entirely incorrect, and it may never
803 01:09:30 --> 01:09:34 even go down here this week, but I have to go in with something at the beginning
804 01:09:34 --> 01:09:37 of the week as a framework. I've already said it doesn't need to do this for me
805 01:09:37 --> 01:09:41 to find trade setups. It just means that this is where my heaviest handed
806 01:09:41 --> 01:09:45 leverage will be anchored to a trade that trades down in here, because I want
807 01:09:45 --> 01:09:49 to be a short seller in this area, because my belief is if, if Smart Money
808 01:09:49 --> 01:09:59 has sold short last week inside that daily fair value gap, then why would
809 01:09:59 --> 01:10:03 they want to just. Be taking profits here when they can take it all the way
810 01:10:03 --> 01:10:08 down here and get a huge range and onboard new lungs if they're bullish,
811 01:10:08 --> 01:10:11 because that just cancels out the need for me to be right about picking a top
812 01:10:11 --> 01:10:20 right. I'm not. I'm not trying to pick a top so having the discussion of
813 01:10:20 --> 01:10:28 narrative in books. I can only do one case study or two and have pages of it,
814 01:10:28 --> 01:10:32 and it won't scratch the surface. That's why I talk about the things I talk
815 01:10:32 --> 01:10:36 about, over price action, because I need you to understand how you should
816 01:10:36 --> 01:10:40 internalize price because there is an entity that's smart money. They are
817 01:10:40 --> 01:10:45 greedy. They're more greedy than you are, and they have the advantage. They
818 01:10:45 --> 01:10:50 have the inside track. They know exactly what this algorithm is doing. They're
819 01:10:50 --> 01:10:56 doing more than I'm doing. They know more than I do, and they're in
820 01:10:56 --> 01:11:03 partnership. So they're they're like a Confederate, okay, if you were watching
821 01:11:03 --> 01:11:08 a magician a show, they employed what is called a Confederate, someone that's in
822 01:11:08 --> 01:11:12 the crowd that you don't recognize as part of the part of the show. But
823 01:11:12 --> 01:11:15 they'll say, All right, let's, let's pick somebody from the crowd. Well, as
824 01:11:15 --> 01:11:17 soon as they do that, chances are that that's a Confederate, that's somebody
825 01:11:17 --> 01:11:20 that's already part of the show, but they'll, they'll blur it up a little bit
826 01:11:20 --> 01:11:24 to make it look like it look like it was a random selection of that person. So
827 01:11:24 --> 01:11:30 they're all part of the show. Well, smart money is part of this rigged game
828 01:11:30 --> 01:11:36 system. They're part of it. And the algorithm is just the price engine that
829 01:11:36 --> 01:11:41 delivers price up and down and goes to these points of reference for the
830 01:11:41 --> 01:11:47 purpose of trading to engage the liquidity or reprice to inefficiencies.
831 01:11:47 --> 01:11:51 That's the only things that happen algorithmically, if it's not being
832 01:11:51 --> 01:11:53 delivered that way. Then manual intervention comes in, and then you see
833 01:11:53 --> 01:12:01 what we saw like last week, or FMC, or like, when, when? When? Powell starts
834 01:12:01 --> 01:12:07 talking today, that's absolutely 100% manual intervention. That's why you
835 01:12:07 --> 01:12:11 should not be doing anything while he's talking. And for 15 minutes after he
836 01:12:11 --> 01:12:16 stops talking, start looking in price and looking at my PDA, raise. And when
837 01:12:16 --> 01:12:21 you start booking perfectly to the tick, that means everything went back to
838 01:12:21 --> 01:12:26 algorithm delivery. But if I'm wrong, let's say I'm wrong, okay? Because
839 01:12:26 --> 01:12:29 that's always a likelihood. I spend times where I've had in my prime
840 01:12:29 --> 01:12:33 mentorship, where I gave my weekly analysis, I wasn't 100% but I was in a
841 01:12:33 --> 01:12:38 high 90s accurate. But the times that I'm not right, I have to have a
842 01:12:38 --> 01:12:43 contingency plan. What would I do if I'm not going to sit still? Because we I
843 01:12:43 --> 01:12:47 can't tell you I'm going to sit still on a Monday. And while we're at it, today's
844 01:12:47 --> 01:12:52 Monday of Non Farm Payroll. I am always trading on that Monday. I'm always
845 01:12:52 --> 01:12:56 trading on the Monday of Non Farm Payroll. I tell everyone that's a new
846 01:12:56 --> 01:13:00 student, to just sit still on Mondays outside of Non Farm Payroll, because
847 01:13:01 --> 01:13:05 they usually use that day to set the initial parameters for the weekly range.
848 01:13:05 --> 01:13:09 And you might get chopped up. You might have a winning trade, but you hold on to
849 01:13:09 --> 01:13:12 it too long. It turns against you, or you're doing it wrong because you just
850 01:13:12 --> 01:13:16 don't know you're doing so that's why I tell new students, don't trade on
851 01:13:16 --> 01:13:21 Mondays, and start their trading on Tuesday. You know, their active
852 01:13:21 --> 01:13:27 participation, and say it that way. So because it's Monday, I'm not from
853 01:13:27 --> 01:13:33 payroll, and we have Fed chair, Fed Chair talking this afternoon, we want to
854 01:13:33 --> 01:13:37 be able to find our setup within the first hour of trading. So that means 930
855 01:13:39 --> 01:13:45 to 1030 in that one hour interval. If you can't find your setup, then don't do
856 01:13:45 --> 01:13:50 anything. Just simply sit still and don't do anything. Okay, because the
857 01:13:50 --> 01:13:54 closer we get to Fed Chair talking later on in the afternoon, the closer we get
858 01:13:54 --> 01:13:58 to the afternoon lunch hour, which is technically two hours. It's 1130 to
859 01:13:58 --> 01:14:03 1:30pm the more likely that you're going to get slapped around and you'll get
860 01:14:03 --> 01:14:08 beat up. So you have to have a limit in terms of the time that you're willing to
861 01:14:08 --> 01:14:12 do something on the day that the Fed chairman is going to be talking when
862 01:14:12 --> 01:14:18 they're talking, and just before they're talking, the hand comes in, the manual
863 01:14:18 --> 01:14:22 intervention that the thing that you don't expect to see in price, and if
864 01:14:22 --> 01:14:25 you're in there, you're probably going to get crushed. You're probably going to
865 01:14:25 --> 01:14:27 get stopped out. You're probably going to get scared out of your trade.
866 01:14:28 --> 01:14:32 Everything that would go wrong, that could go wrong, it's going to happen. So
867 01:14:32 --> 01:14:36 don't be in the marketplace. Then. I don't know why anybody would argue
868 01:14:36 --> 01:14:40 against that, that idea of preserving preserving capital, because that's all
869 01:14:40 --> 01:14:41 it is.
870 01:14:42 --> 01:14:47 You are in the times when the market is the least likely to pan out in your
871 01:14:47 --> 01:14:52 favor, and if you win, it's it's just happenstance. It's this that it just
872 01:14:52 --> 01:14:56 happened, that you were on that side, that time. It's not a consistent thing
873 01:14:56 --> 01:15:00 where anybody can go in and say, okay, the Fed chair is talking so I'm. Go
874 01:15:00 --> 01:15:03 short while he's doing this, or I'm gonna go long like anytime someone makes
875 01:15:03 --> 01:15:07 money like that and they want to show it online, just block them, just mute them,
876 01:15:07 --> 01:15:11 do something because they're literally just trying to get an atta boy or at a
877 01:15:11 --> 01:15:15 girl. And I'm telling you that that's the worst time to be in the marketplace.
878 01:15:15 --> 01:15:20 It's the worst because you don't know what they're doing. This is the person
879 01:15:20 --> 01:15:24 that's the head of the Fed, okay? The Federal Reserve, these people are not
880 01:15:24 --> 01:15:27 looking for out for your best interest. They're not they're controlling a
881 01:15:27 --> 01:15:30 narrative. They're troll they're trolling us right now, over the last
882 01:15:30 --> 01:15:34 several years, okay? And everything that's being done to us as an American
883 01:15:34 --> 01:15:39 society and through the economic cycle is punishment. So they're not going to
884 01:15:39 --> 01:15:43 be honest with you, they're not going to tell you how to help you make money.
885 01:15:43 --> 01:15:47 Okay? They're going to tell you something that is absolutely useless to
886 01:15:47 --> 01:15:52 you in in talking points. So you might as well just let them do whatever damage
887 01:15:52 --> 01:15:56 they're going to do. Wait 15 minutes after they're done talking and then go
888 01:15:56 --> 01:16:01 in and see what we have if the prices are reacting out to my PDA, raise and
889 01:16:01 --> 01:16:04 inefficiencies, or are trading into them and then leaving right away, you can
890 01:16:04 --> 01:16:08 tell that we're back to algorithmic delivery. If it's not like that yet,
891 01:16:08 --> 01:16:13 don't trade now. Doesn't that make that very straightforward and simple? You
892 01:16:13 --> 01:16:19 have rules. When you should, when you can't, not when you might. You know it's
893 01:16:19 --> 01:16:24 when you should, and if it's not when you should, it's every time. No, I'm not
894 01:16:24 --> 01:16:29 doing anything. You have to be much more rigid about when you don't do something
895 01:16:29 --> 01:16:33 and don't create these little pockets of Well, I would normally not trade here,
896 01:16:33 --> 01:16:37 but I just feel like, you know, I'm gonna probably get this one right.
897 01:16:37 --> 01:16:43 That's when that's impulsive trading. Impulsive trading Caleb is how you are
898 01:16:43 --> 01:16:47 going to lose money, because you have that little tendency, like I have, where
899 01:16:49 --> 01:16:54 if I'm provoked, I'm gonna bite. If someone chests up to me, I'm there to
900 01:16:54 --> 01:16:59 knock their fucking block off. I'm I'm like that. I'm confrontational. But in
901 01:16:59 --> 01:17:03 trading, you'll have your ass handed to you, and you have to be very, very
902 01:17:03 --> 01:17:09 careful that you don't invite those instances. And if you feel like that,
903 01:17:09 --> 01:17:13 you're going to have that influence, even on a day where you see everything
904 01:17:13 --> 01:17:17 is good, technically, there's no manual intervention likely to happen. It's low
905 01:17:17 --> 01:17:21 resistance, liquidity runs. If you feel that impulse that you, if you feel that
906 01:17:21 --> 01:17:29 tendency coming over, you turn the charts off on your dad, I know what I
907 01:17:29 --> 01:17:32 mean by and you know what I mean by that. But anyone else listening, if you
908 01:17:32 --> 01:17:39 have a reckless disposition, that's my permission to you also, even though that
909 01:17:39 --> 01:17:45 we may be in low resistance liquidity, run conditions, you have to identify
910 01:17:46 --> 01:17:52 where you're going to be euphoric or manic or out of control, impulsive,
911 01:17:53 --> 01:18:01 greedy or at the highest, highest degree of panic. And you get paralyzed, so that
912 01:18:01 --> 01:18:04 that these are all things that you discover about yourself in the first
913 01:18:04 --> 01:18:08 stages of documenting your development and journaling. What do you feel when
914 01:18:08 --> 01:18:11 you're watching price action? Do you feel euphoric? Do you feel scared even
915 01:18:11 --> 01:18:14 though you're not even in a trade? You feel ANC? Do you feel like you're
916 01:18:14 --> 01:18:18 looking for everything that calls that trade not to be profitable? So that way
917 01:18:18 --> 01:18:21 you can say, I've saved myself a lot of time worrying about this because it
918 01:18:21 --> 01:18:25 didn't work. I watched it happen fail like these are all critical things you
919 01:18:25 --> 01:18:29 have to take inventory on. But when you're trading in days like this, where
920 01:18:29 --> 01:18:34 we have a looming event in the afternoon, you will see manual
921 01:18:34 --> 01:18:37 intervention today, guaranteed it's going to happen. You're going to see it.
922 01:18:38 --> 01:18:44 You can predict it. You can anticipate it. We are not going to wait to see if
923 01:18:44 --> 01:18:48 it happens and then react to it. We know that there's a pothole down the road in
924 01:18:48 --> 01:18:53 the afternoon session. So don't trade the afternoon session. How hard is that?
925 01:18:53 --> 01:18:57 Some of you say, Oh, he said not to do it. I'm going to go out there and do it.
926 01:18:57 --> 01:19:00 Well, I understand that. I read a sign says, Don't walk on the grass. I want a
927 01:19:00 --> 01:19:02 moonwalk on it. I know it's natural tendency. That's our sinful nature.
928 01:19:02 --> 01:19:07 Sinful nature, but in trading, why are you going to invite recklessness that
929 01:19:07 --> 01:19:10 causes you to lose money? If you're wrong, I'm not going to be impressed if
930 01:19:10 --> 01:19:15 you come and show Look at this. I said, he said this, I'm never like man. I'm
931 01:19:15 --> 01:19:18 exposed. He took a trade in a time. I said I wouldn't take a trade. He should
932 01:19:18 --> 01:19:22 do mentorships. Let me. Let me sign up to his mentorship. I'm not thinking like
933 01:19:22 --> 01:19:25 that. I'm thinking you're a goober and you're literally gambling. That's how
934 01:19:25 --> 01:19:28 that's how I see it. I see that with anybody that's treating if you're live
935 01:19:28 --> 01:19:31 streaming, you're trying to do it during these time series. You're an idiot, but
936 01:19:31 --> 01:19:37 you're an idiot. You're literally asking to have your lunch eaten, and you're
937 01:19:37 --> 01:19:46 leaving a tiff so you when five minute chart, we have our inefficiency here.
938 01:19:46 --> 01:19:49 I'm going to drop down into a one minute chart. I'm.
939 01:20:01 --> 01:20:08 Uh, I'm, I mean, I may not go down to a 15 second chart this morning. We will be
940 01:20:08 --> 01:20:12 in a 15 second chart every single day the rest of the week, because I want to
941 01:20:12 --> 01:20:19 go in and teach you volatility pinball, where you're literally engaging several
942 01:20:19 --> 01:20:23 times in an hour, you're buying and selling, buying and selling, buying and
943 01:20:23 --> 01:20:28 selling. And what it was for me to teach myself to get over the fear of shorting,
944 01:20:30 --> 01:20:34 I had to desensitize myself. And that idea came from Larry Williams out of his
945 01:20:34 --> 01:20:39 own mouth. He said that he was scared to take trades. And because I heard my hero
946 01:20:39 --> 01:20:45 say those words, what did I do? I associated myself with that. Oh, so he
947 01:20:45 --> 01:20:49 feels that way. I'm 20 years old. I'm impressionable, like all of you are. He.
948 01:20:49 --> 01:20:55 He said something, and I was like, You know what? I want to associate myself
949 01:20:55 --> 01:20:59 with this man as much as I can. I want to emulate this man as much as I can. I
950 01:21:00 --> 01:21:04 want to be successful like this man as much as I can. So he says that he's
951 01:21:04 --> 01:21:12 afraid of taking trades. Before I started trading, I had that underlying
952 01:21:12 --> 01:21:16 thought process, I wonder if I'm going to be scared of trading. But I wasn't
953 01:21:16 --> 01:21:20 initially. I just went in there and like a like a cowboy, just jumped on that
954 01:21:20 --> 01:21:26 bull and road ro and I was only buying look right here.
955 01:21:38 --> 01:21:45 There's sell side resting right below there. So I started with this, I'm going
956 01:21:45 --> 01:21:52 to go in and I'm going to go short and try to defeat these demons that I'm
957 01:21:52 --> 01:21:59 afraid of. And I was afraid every single time, like full blown anxiety attacks
958 01:21:59 --> 01:22:03 every single point, and it was, it's horrifying, because I didn't understand
959 01:22:03 --> 01:22:06 what I was doing. I was I knew I could lose money, because I was losing money
960 01:22:06 --> 01:22:09 as a long holder. When I would go long, I would I would have losing trades. I
961 01:22:09 --> 01:22:14 could make money, but I would lose it too. And because the market had shifted
962 01:22:15 --> 01:22:18 everything that would have been bullish, it was just a small little
963 01:22:18 --> 01:22:22 consolidation, and then it would drop lower. So I would be tricked into
964 01:22:22 --> 01:22:25 thinking that the indicators that were oversold and diverging bullishly and
965 01:22:25 --> 01:22:30 whatnot, and my moving average and maybe even sloping up on a 50 day, simple
966 01:22:30 --> 01:22:33 moving average, I'm sorry, exponential moving average, that was my model back
967 01:22:33 --> 01:22:37 then, and because everything at the time was going up, you know, I was in a 90s
968 01:22:37 --> 01:22:41 bull market. So of course, it's not skilled, but I felt like it was and I
969 01:22:42 --> 01:22:46 was on America Online, trying to teach people how to do what was obvious, the
970 01:22:46 --> 01:22:51 market was going to go up, right? So I tricked myself into thinking that I was
971 01:22:51 --> 01:22:54 hot shit back then, and I didn't know, really know what I was doing. And then
972 01:22:54 --> 01:22:59 when the market went to a bearish phase where it just wanted to go lower, every
973 01:22:59 --> 01:23:03 time I bought, I lost every single time. And I would just erode the account,
974 01:23:03 --> 01:23:07 erode the account, and I'd have to work a part time job in addition to the long
975 01:23:07 --> 01:23:11 hours I did. And it was, it was terrible. It was terrible to get the
976 01:23:11 --> 01:23:15 little bit of money scraped up in to put into an account. And I would repeat the
977 01:23:15 --> 01:23:18 same cycle over and over and over again. And then I was like, Well, you know, I
978 01:23:18 --> 01:23:21 gotta learn how to be a short seller, like I have to do. I have to be able to
979 01:23:21 --> 01:23:27 do this. And the way I overcame that was use the logic that Larry Williams said
980 01:23:27 --> 01:23:31 he did. He was afraid of taking trades from the beginning, and in the
981 01:23:31 --> 01:23:36 beginning, I wasn't it was something that I adopted because I want to
982 01:23:36 --> 01:23:41 associate myself with him psychologically, and I was emotionally
983 01:23:41 --> 01:23:47 committed to being a student of his. He didn't know me from anyone, but I wanted
984 01:23:47 --> 01:23:53 to assimilate with his thought process on everything. And the only thing that
985 01:23:53 --> 01:23:57 you should assimilate with me is how price books. Me is the person none of
986 01:23:57 --> 01:24:02 you should look up to as a hero. I am not. I am not someone to look up to. I
987 01:24:02 --> 01:24:08 am absolutely 100% fallible. I am a sinner. I am not a good role model. I
988 01:24:08 --> 01:24:13 say things to incite people emotionally, to cause them to come here for the
989 01:24:13 --> 01:24:18 Express purposes proving them wrong. I get off on that. That's not something
990 01:24:18 --> 01:24:23 that's a good characteristic in a person, because I feel like I have to
991 01:24:23 --> 01:24:28 scratch an itch that's deep rooted in my childhood. I have that all the time in
992 01:24:28 --> 01:24:34 me, that's a character flaw. That's why I'm not the best mentor. I have a deep,
993 01:24:34 --> 01:24:40 rooted vendetta that I have to I have to prove myself to my grandfather, not you,
994 01:24:40 --> 01:24:43 not you listening. I have to prove something to my grandfather. I can't I
995 01:24:43 --> 01:24:49 can't do that. So I'm never satisfied. So it causes me to do things
996 01:24:49 --> 01:24:53 impulsively, and that's why you see me do the best I can in terms of managing
997 01:24:53 --> 01:24:59 that by in flaming other people, make them come here and prove that what I'm
998 01:24:59 --> 01:25:04 doing. One isn't true, isn't real. And then when I make profitable students and
999 01:25:04 --> 01:25:07 they become millionaires, it's satisfying to me. I twist the knife
1000 01:25:07 --> 01:25:13 because it satisfies me. If I was in 100% control over myself, I wouldn't
1001 01:25:13 --> 01:25:18 have those impulses, but I don't, so therefore I'm not the best mentor,
1002 01:25:18 --> 01:25:27 because I am, I'm I'm riddled with that so but in terms of price action, you
1003 01:25:27 --> 01:25:31 absolutely should assimilate yourself to that, because what I'm teaching is
1004 01:25:31 --> 01:25:36 distinct from me as the man, the person I'm not here for friends you you should
1005 01:25:36 --> 01:25:40 never want to meet me. You're not going to be impressed. I'm not going to want
1006 01:25:40 --> 01:25:43 to want to be friendly with you. I'm introverted. I don't sound like I'm
1007 01:25:43 --> 01:25:49 introverted because I'm talking to a screen with my child in mind. But if you
1008 01:25:49 --> 01:25:54 met me, I would not feel inclined to be able to talk to you like this. It would
1009 01:25:54 --> 01:26:00 take time for for that to happen. I met one of my students on the internet, one
1010 01:26:00 --> 01:26:07 of them, just one. And I was extremely uncomfortable, very, very uncomfortable.
1011 01:26:07 --> 01:26:13 And I don't want to do that again, as much as many you want that to happen. I
1012 01:26:13 --> 01:26:15 don't want to I don't want to have that happen. What I'm watching here is see
1013 01:26:15 --> 01:26:22 how the bodies are just hanging around the middle of this inefficiency. 930 930
1014 01:26:24 --> 01:26:34 let's take a look at the so we have a discount gap that could trade up into
1015 01:26:34 --> 01:26:34 here.
1016 01:26:42 --> 01:27:00 I I know ugly color. So we're in the lower quadrant of the opening range gap.
1017 01:27:04 --> 01:27:08 I was saying earlier and I didn't get a chance to say because I was discussing
1018 01:27:08 --> 01:27:17 other things, if I was wrong about it, going down into the weekly imbalance and
1019 01:27:17 --> 01:27:23 that hourly discount WIC, it may want to come up and take buy side out so it
1020 01:27:23 --> 01:27:27 could take a pass through this is assuming I'm wrong. It could trade above
1021 01:27:27 --> 01:27:32 that and really entice people to think it's going to go higher, and then I'd
1022 01:27:32 --> 01:27:39 have to wait for it to break down again and get down below whatever first grade,
1023 01:27:39 --> 01:27:44 first spare value gap that forms in the one minute chart, which is yet to form.
1024 01:27:48 --> 01:27:54 But any setup, the entry would have to be in the first hour trading. So between
1025 01:27:54 --> 01:28:00 930 and 1030 and if there's no entry, there's no trade, I would simply tell
1026 01:28:00 --> 01:28:06 Cale he can't trade. Can't take a trade today, but he can trade all up to inside
1027 01:28:06 --> 01:28:09 that first hour. So that means what he can take a silver bullet,
1028 01:28:20 --> 01:28:24 and what that is? What is that?
1029 01:28:32 --> 01:28:35 I must have laid a rectangle down to complete it. There's nothing in here.
1030 01:28:35 --> 01:28:46 I'm looking at there. The buy side has been ran here. So we went above the
1031 01:28:46 --> 01:28:52 opening range gap relative to last Friday's settlement to today's open.
1032 01:28:52 --> 01:28:57 That's what that yellow box is. Any of this run here, I'm not interested in any
1033 01:28:57 --> 01:29:03 of that. If it keeps on going higher, it simply means it's going to do it without
1034 01:29:03 --> 01:29:07 me. See how liberating that is. I'm not arm wrestling and saying I have to be in
1035 01:29:07 --> 01:29:11 here long. I have to figure out along if I'm wrong. I have to figure it out. No,
1036 01:29:11 --> 01:29:17 I don't. You don't have to either. Caleb, social media has a terrible
1037 01:29:17 --> 01:29:23 tendency to make people think that someone else out there is always taking
1038 01:29:23 --> 01:29:27 the trade that's moving right now, and I'm telling you, I have lots of ways to
1039 01:29:27 --> 01:29:31 get into every single type of move. I'm not thinking that way, and I'm certainly
1040 01:29:31 --> 01:29:35 not trying to do that, and nobody out there as a trader should be trying to do
1041 01:29:39 --> 01:29:50 that. I top of that
1042 01:29:51 --> 01:29:57 inefficiency that's shaded here, this one that that low shaded area to that
1043 01:29:57 --> 01:30:01 high shaded area, it could come up. And hit that. If it's going to go there, it
1044 01:30:01 --> 01:30:06 would make sense worth the wick above. Take the liquidity out here. Otherwise
1045 01:30:06 --> 01:30:11 it would need to stop with the bodies in the upper quadrant of it. Remember it's
1046 01:30:11 --> 01:30:15 at and roll over anything that's shown here right now. I'm not interested in
1047 01:30:15 --> 01:30:16 any of that.
1048 01:30:22 --> 01:30:46 I'm I just want to take a quick look at ES and comparison.
1049 01:30:53 --> 01:31:00 All right, you can see what es can do, right. Right here, there's your buy
1050 01:31:00 --> 01:31:09 side, so it might be trying to get up here to disrupt this. So for ES, we can
1051 01:31:09 --> 01:31:13 monitor this one, because It does definitely have a draw on liquidity
1052 01:31:13 --> 01:31:13 there.
1053 01:31:22 --> 01:32:03 I'm so what we're seeing here is the decoupling. Decoupling is when all three
1054 01:32:03 --> 01:32:10 averages are doing something different. This drop down is not seen in NASDAQ.
1055 01:32:10 --> 01:32:16 It's not seen in ES. Let's go back to ES. See that. So I would expect them to
1056 01:32:16 --> 01:32:20 come up here and disrupt this. They don't have to, but it would be much more
1057 01:32:20 --> 01:32:23 meaningful if they hit it and then started to sell off. That means they
1058 01:32:23 --> 01:32:26 took out these individuals here. If they take them out, what are they doing it
1059 01:32:26 --> 01:32:29 for? They're taking them out to take their stops, and they're going to sell
1060 01:32:29 --> 01:32:34 short against those buy stops. So anyone that's short, they have their protective
1061 01:32:34 --> 01:32:38 buy stop right above here. So it's reasonable to anticipate the market want
1062 01:32:38 --> 01:32:42 to go up there. What would be the narrative for that? Well, if it goes
1063 01:32:42 --> 01:32:46 higher on the day, it goes without saying that that would be a nice area
1064 01:32:46 --> 01:32:50 for them to take partial profits and lock in something profitably. But I like
1065 01:32:50 --> 01:32:55 the idea of it going there to see if it can unseat these individuals. They don't
1066 01:32:55 --> 01:32:58 get to have the profit here, it's being taken from them. And then if it sells
1067 01:32:58 --> 01:33:02 off from there, and it starts to build in technicals that would send us down to
1068 01:33:02 --> 01:33:07 that sell side. That's the idea, and that's the side of the market I want to
1069 01:33:07 --> 01:33:11 be on. This is all just me watching and monitoring and just, yeah, okay, we're
1070 01:33:11 --> 01:33:16 tape reading it. I'm not in it. I don't want to trade it long in there. We can,
1071 01:33:16 --> 01:33:21 but I'm not interested. I want to see what we do when we get there, add to it
1072 01:33:21 --> 01:33:29 that we have the indices not agreeing. So the only element of Dow Theory that I
1073 01:33:29 --> 01:33:35 do use, okay, is I like the idea if I'm bearish, I want to see all three
1074 01:33:35 --> 01:33:43 averages moving in the same direction. That's That's simple, okay, but I don't
1075 01:33:43 --> 01:33:48 see that here today, neither do you. The Dow has dropped. The NASDAQ has gone
1076 01:33:48 --> 01:33:53 higher. Well, let's go back to it real quick. The S, P is obviously doing what
1077 01:33:53 --> 01:33:59 you see it doing here. So this is a decoupled, actually, system. Watch them
1078 01:33:59 --> 01:34:06 hit the stops first. Then we'll go to NASA. Whenever you're trading, looking
1079 01:34:06 --> 01:34:10 for a setup or one you're in a trade setup, you want to see all three
1080 01:34:10 --> 01:34:16 averages agree. That means, if you're bearish and you're in a short even
1081 01:34:16 --> 01:34:20 though I don't like the Dow because it's only 30 stocks and it's a little unruly,
1082 01:34:20 --> 01:34:29 so it's called the Dirty 30. The the impact on its movement, buying and of
1083 01:34:29 --> 01:34:34 itself is, is not all that important, but it is usually, sometimes the canary
1084 01:34:34 --> 01:34:39 in the coal mine, where, if we see the Dow just saying, no, not doing something
1085 01:34:40 --> 01:34:48 that you you other two are doing that may be indicative of something changing,
1086 01:34:48 --> 01:34:53 not all the time, but if I do see a divergence between the NASDAQ and the s,
1087 01:34:53 --> 01:34:58 p and they're not doing the same thing, that's clearly a time when you don't
1088 01:34:58 --> 01:35:03 want to be trading because. You're in a decoupled condition, and you're most
1089 01:35:03 --> 01:35:08 likely playing in a sandbox where manual intervention is about to happen. You're
1090 01:35:08 --> 01:35:11 gonna have sand kicked in your face. You're not gonna go see what you're
1091 01:35:11 --> 01:35:14 doing. You're gonna lose visibility, and you're gonna lose money, and if you lose
1092 01:35:14 --> 01:35:17 control of yourself, you'll wreck yourself, go on tilt and blow your
1093 01:35:17 --> 01:35:22 account. So, long story short, you want to have a day or a session when you're
1094 01:35:22 --> 01:35:26 trading where all three averages are a green. So we'll cycle through. We just
1095 01:35:26 --> 01:35:30 went right back to the same high. I think they're going to still go and hit
1096 01:35:30 --> 01:35:37 that. But let's look at NASDAQ. Okay, so we took out the highs. We ran over here
1097 01:35:37 --> 01:35:40 and took the hideout over here. Told you if it was going to go to the high, that
1098 01:35:40 --> 01:35:43 shaded area, it'd be reasonable to anticipate. Reasonable to anticipate
1099 01:35:43 --> 01:35:53 them blowing out the stops above here, which we've just seen them do that
1100 01:35:53 --> 01:35:56 there. So I would want to see it. Unfortunately, it's probably gonna have
1101 01:35:56 --> 01:36:01 to hang around up here until es completes its rotation for buy side
1102 01:36:02 --> 01:36:07 here. I mean, it would be highly unlikely for it to leave it like that
1103 01:36:07 --> 01:36:11 and to start to drop. It's happened before. We saw that a couple weeks ago
1104 01:36:11 --> 01:36:16 with the NASDAQ. It just left those quadruple highs up there and dropped
1105 01:36:16 --> 01:36:19 like almost 1000 handles, and then came back where later on i
1106 01:36:24 --> 01:36:35 And now watch with the Dow. Are they all agreeing? No. So how can you feel
1107 01:36:35 --> 01:36:38 comfortable sitting on the sidelines and that you all have a trade on right now,
1108 01:36:38 --> 01:36:42 when the market looks like this, all three in a perfect world where there is
1109 01:36:42 --> 01:36:46 symmetry. This is not a symmetrical market. A symmetrical market is where
1110 01:36:46 --> 01:36:51 all three averages are moving in the same direction. This is saying I'm not
1111 01:36:51 --> 01:36:56 even going up there. I'm going to go lower, which, to me, I'm taking that
1112 01:36:56 --> 01:37:00 based on what I've already did is in the pre market analysis that this is the
1113 01:37:00 --> 01:37:03 canary in the coal mine. It's saying that there's something wrong with this.
1114 01:37:03 --> 01:37:10 Let's go back and look at the other indices. Here's the s, p, and here is
1115 01:37:10 --> 01:37:14 the NASDAQ. So I would like to see NASDAQ just stay here. Hold it like a
1116 01:37:14 --> 01:37:20 bull flag formation. Let everybody anticipate breaking higher and then a
1117 01:37:20 --> 01:37:24 sharp breakdown lower, and then inside the opening range gap, treat the
1118 01:37:24 --> 01:37:29 midpoint once it gets below that, treat that midpoint as a premium, and then
1119 01:37:29 --> 01:37:35 sell off from there and displace but we have the very First
1120 01:37:40 --> 01:37:47 fair value gap here on the one minute chart is at 931 it's rather large there,
1121 01:37:48 --> 01:37:52 and it was this is all ahead of the Chicago PMI too, by the way, that comes
1122 01:37:52 --> 01:38:01 out in less than four minutes. So I take this as them fluffing up the market,
1123 01:38:01 --> 01:38:06 stopping out in any of the any individuals that were short, and then
1124 01:38:06 --> 01:38:11 they may elect to take the bar the market down sharply into our objectives
1125 01:38:11 --> 01:38:17 here on the day or going into tomorrow. That's kind of like what I internalize.
1126 01:38:17 --> 01:38:20 I a
1127 01:38:32 --> 01:38:36 scout, such a little, tiny boxer, like she's little, but she snores like a
1128 01:38:36 --> 01:38:41 Saint Bernard, sweetie, but she's got
1129 01:38:43 --> 01:38:44 an awful snore. We
1130 01:38:47 --> 01:38:53 don't care about your dog. ICT put a trade on. Sorry. This is union rules.
1131 01:38:53 --> 01:38:56 All three rules have to talk about things outside the chart that to
1132 01:38:56 --> 01:39:02 distract you. Union rules, man, we have to do it all the time. I
1133 01:39:07 --> 01:39:08 This guy's, I see
1134 01:39:10 --> 01:39:14 it. Look at the Dow. This is garbage. You guys want to trade this one man like
1135 01:39:14 --> 01:39:17 this. This to me. I know some of you like, Oh, this is my thing. This is my
1136 01:39:17 --> 01:39:17 thing.
1137 01:39:19 --> 01:39:20 You can have your thing. I
1138 01:39:24 --> 01:39:32 No, it stopped dead on, that would annoy me. Be honest with you, if they just
1139 01:39:32 --> 01:39:35 dropped it from there, that would absolutely annoy me, but it would mean
1140 01:39:35 --> 01:39:38 that we're probably gonna have to come up here later on, which would be fine,
1141 01:39:38 --> 01:39:41 right? If they're gonna take it all the way down to our NASDAQ objective,
1142 01:39:41 --> 01:39:46 they're leaving what up here then buy side. So coming all the way down to that
1143 01:39:46 --> 01:39:52 deep discount on NASDAQ and dropping ES and sympathy with it, this would be
1144 01:39:52 --> 01:39:59 where the market would draw to on the upside, if, if it goes down there, down
1145 01:39:59 --> 01:40:09 where, down. On there. So looks like we're trying to build in that pseudo
1146 01:40:09 --> 01:40:10 bull flag thing.
1147 01:40:17 --> 01:40:22 So right away, you can see how and why I don't keep all this stuff on my chart,
1148 01:40:23 --> 01:40:30 because it's, to me, it's absolutely distracting. But I have to have these
1149 01:40:30 --> 01:40:35 things framed out for you to understand what I'm looking at. So if I'm, you
1150 01:40:35 --> 01:40:41 know, if I'm holding an opinion around certain key levels, what are they based
1151 01:40:41 --> 01:40:50 on? Well, everything I've outlined here, all right, 30 seconds to Chicago, PMI
1152 01:40:50 --> 01:40:50 number I
1153 01:41:08 --> 01:41:15 10 seconds, we'll see some volatility. This is a medium impact news driver, so
1154 01:41:15 --> 01:41:20 it's not red, but it's inside that first 30 minutes opening range. Should it can
1155 01:41:20 --> 01:41:21 tend to be a little bit more animated than
1156 01:41:27 --> 01:41:32 normal. Really, should be looking at es Michaels see if they run around those
1157 01:41:32 --> 01:41:33 relative equal highs. I
1158 01:41:45 --> 01:41:50 No matter what price is doing in this environment, because there's a
1159 01:41:50 --> 01:42:01 decoupling between all three averages that gives me a confidence to sit still.
1160 01:42:02 --> 01:42:06 If everything, if every average was moving in the same direction, I would
1161 01:42:06 --> 01:42:09 feel like they were probably going to take it higher and continuously move
1162 01:42:09 --> 01:42:16 higher. But because the Dow had already like, imagine a canary, a little bird,
1163 01:42:16 --> 01:42:20 okay, coal miners used to have these little bird cages in the in the coal
1164 01:42:20 --> 01:42:24 mine with them, and because they're a smaller little animal, their lung
1165 01:42:24 --> 01:42:29 capacity smaller and they're more susceptible to adverse climate and
1166 01:42:29 --> 01:42:35 environmental changes. When oxygen levels would drop to dangerous levels,
1167 01:42:35 --> 01:42:39 the coal miners would know that, because the canary would stop chirping and they
1168 01:42:39 --> 01:42:45 would be dead. So the Dow was, in my opinion, so far. So it looks like it
1169 01:42:45 --> 01:42:49 looks like it was the canary in the coal mine this morning saying that it went
1170 01:42:49 --> 01:42:56 down when the other two averages, the NASDAQ and the ES went up. Es has
1171 01:42:56 --> 01:43:03 unfinished business here in the form of buy sign. So that's, that's the hold up
1172 01:43:03 --> 01:43:07 for anything going. Short for me, I want to see it go here, disrupt these
1173 01:43:07 --> 01:43:15 relative equal highs, and then see how we trade after it does that. And I would
1174 01:43:15 --> 01:43:19 like to see it move lower sharply after it goes there. I
1175 01:43:26 --> 01:43:32 So I'm sitting here. I'm waiting for a certain criteria to be met, to frame the
1176 01:43:32 --> 01:43:36 idea around the narrative I already outlined this morning. We have a few
1177 01:43:36 --> 01:43:43 clues that that might be in play, but we still have to work through the effects
1178 01:43:43 --> 01:43:50 of the Chicago PMI. Not that the data itself is moving price. They use these,
1179 01:43:50 --> 01:43:56 these high impact or medium impact news drivers. They use these as smoke
1180 01:43:56 --> 01:44:00 screens, basically. So what I'm getting at like it it's easy to justify on the
1181 01:44:00 --> 01:44:05 news. Oh yeah. The market had a so and so rally to blah, blah, blah because of
1182 01:44:05 --> 01:44:09 the Chicago PMI number. The market's not reacting off of the number. The market's
1183 01:44:09 --> 01:44:13 going to go to where it needs to go. In this case, it's going to go to where the
1184 01:44:13 --> 01:44:17 stops are. But anyone that doesn't think the way I'm teaching to look at the
1185 01:44:17 --> 01:44:23 market algorithmically, for the purposes of taking liquidity, unseating
1186 01:44:23 --> 01:44:27 individuals and taking over their position, or knocking them out of their
1187 01:44:27 --> 01:44:33 profitable position to add more to their longer term profitable trade. That's
1188 01:44:33 --> 01:44:42 what the market does, and by having that perspective, it in my mind. In my mind,
1189 01:44:42 --> 01:44:47 it does give me an advantage versus just looking for a pattern, for sake of
1190 01:44:48 --> 01:44:51 appearing in books. And people say it, it works. Uh, I've lost money on
1191 01:44:51 --> 01:44:58 patterns, but knowing where the liquidity is the time of day, how this
1192 01:44:58 --> 01:45:05 entity? It? Analyzes other traders that don't realize that it exists. It's like
1193 01:45:05 --> 01:45:12 that monster under your bed. It's there. You know it's there, but you're just too
1194 01:45:12 --> 01:45:15 afraid to bend down and look underneath it or let your foot dangle off the edge
1195 01:45:15 --> 01:45:15 of the bed. You
1196 01:45:29 --> 01:45:34 so in 2024 you have been getting a clinic on how to avoid adverse market
1197 01:45:34 --> 01:45:39 conditions. Markets are moving around, not denying that, but they're moving
1198 01:45:39 --> 01:45:43 around in a manner where I can be comfortable not being a part of them,
1199 01:45:43 --> 01:45:48 because it fits the logic that I'm teaching. What happens when these things
1200 01:45:48 --> 01:45:54 are not in place, in in price, we're active, we're in their trading, we're in
1201 01:45:54 --> 01:45:59 there taking setups, and we have low stress. We have no anxiety. We have 100%
1202 01:46:00 --> 01:46:05 trust in what we're looking at, because we don't have these things plaguing it.
1203 01:46:06 --> 01:46:10 A perfect world, a perfect trade setup, all three averages are going to move
1204 01:46:11 --> 01:46:16 together. That's Dow Theory. That's the only extent of Dow Theory that I have.
1205 01:46:16 --> 01:46:20 That's it. I want to see the averages confirm. And I didn't learn that part
1206 01:46:21 --> 01:46:29 from down theory. I learned that from Georgia and Joe. So that idea of when S
1207 01:46:29 --> 01:46:33 P is moving higher or lower, because when I first started trading S P, I
1208 01:46:33 --> 01:46:40 would have the NASDAQ, I would have the Dow, I would have a tick chart, I would
1209 01:46:40 --> 01:46:45 have a couple other little retail things that are not even important, and I would
1210 01:46:45 --> 01:46:52 use the idea of all three of the averages needing to move in the same
1211 01:46:52 --> 01:46:59 direction, if I'm bullish or bearish. And at that time, I was using floor
1212 01:46:59 --> 01:47:04 pivot numbers, and that was my support and resistance those levels, those
1213 01:47:04 --> 01:47:09 numbers, and I didn't understand, when I was watching them trade through those
1214 01:47:09 --> 01:47:13 levels, that there was something else going on. It was going to the liquidity
1215 01:47:13 --> 01:47:17 that's beyond that floor number. Just because those numbers are calculated on
1216 01:47:17 --> 01:47:21 the previous dates, hoping high, low and close, you know, it doesn't mean it's
1217 01:47:21 --> 01:47:25 going to be the low of the day or the high the day or the session, but
1218 01:47:25 --> 01:47:31 liquidity below an old low or old lows can be the low of the day. Liquidity
1219 01:47:31 --> 01:47:35 above old high or relative equal highs can be the high of the day. And the
1220 01:47:35 --> 01:47:39 pivot number is just a suggestion of where it might reach for it's like a
1221 01:47:40 --> 01:47:43 it's like a draw on liquidity, but it's never, ever to be viewed as a terminus
1222 01:47:43 --> 01:47:47 level, where it's this is it. It's never going to go beyond that. That's the
1223 01:47:47 --> 01:47:51 mistake I I found I was making. And I think every other trader that uses floor
1224 01:47:51 --> 01:47:56 numbers and pivot numbers, they they use them as a panacea, like nothing's a
1225 01:47:56 --> 01:48:00 panacea. Literally nothing in trading is a panacea. There's no be all, end, all
1226 01:48:00 --> 01:48:03 ends. Everything is it answers all questions. Because if anything like that
1227 01:48:03 --> 01:48:07 existed, number one, I can tell you honestly, I would never teach that, and
1228 01:48:07 --> 01:48:12 nobody else would either. So stop looking for it, because nobody, no one's
1229 01:48:12 --> 01:48:14 going to share that with you, and they're never going to sell it either,
1230 01:48:14 --> 01:48:17 even if it is an expensive amount of money, because they could sell things
1231 01:48:17 --> 01:48:23 for $5,000 even though it's for free on YouTube, if they believe it was exactly
1232 01:48:23 --> 01:48:27 what they try to market it as they would never sell it. They would just simply
1233 01:48:27 --> 01:48:33 use it because that, that edge would diminish. Well, the reason why I can
1234 01:48:33 --> 01:48:38 teach this is because this is the market. It's the lifeblood of markets,
1235 01:48:38 --> 01:48:43 time and price and liquidity. If it ain't liquidity, it's inefficiencies.
1236 01:48:43 --> 01:48:47 And that's always going to be the game. It's never going to be anything. But
1237 01:48:47 --> 01:48:54 that looks like we could make a attempt to get up here finally work those levels
1238 01:48:54 --> 01:49:00 out. Got 37 and a half minutes where Caleb could still find the setup.
1239 01:49:12 --> 01:49:19 Quick, look at that real quick. Yeah, still ugly. I
1240 01:49:25 --> 01:49:31 Okay, see, see what it's doing. It's just hanging around. I like that. I like
1241 01:49:31 --> 01:49:37 this. To me. I view this as it's it's got to look like it's trying to be
1242 01:49:37 --> 01:49:44 bullish, to allow ES to do its damage on those relative equal highs. That's
1243 01:49:44 --> 01:49:48 That's how I see this. This right here, just It's ugly. It's really, really
1244 01:49:48 --> 01:49:51 ugly. That's exactly what I was telling you. Said it's going to hang around in,
1245 01:49:51 --> 01:49:54 like this bull flag type formation, where people are going to want to see it
1246 01:49:54 --> 01:49:57 go higher. They want this to break out to the upside. Retail traders want to
1247 01:49:57 --> 01:50:01 buy this. They want to be long in this, especially after. Seen all this shit. So
1248 01:50:01 --> 01:50:08 by having es with its unfinished business up here, here's what's
1249 01:50:08 --> 01:50:13 happening. Phil's watching my live stream this morning, and he's like, I'm
1250 01:50:13 --> 01:50:17 gonna fuck with you today. ICT, we're gonna sit here and just hammer that
1251 01:50:17 --> 01:50:21 hammer, that hammer. That's okay. It's okay. I'm still gonna make money today.
1252 01:50:21 --> 01:50:25 I'm still gonna make money today. Don't have it. Don't have to be in this
1253 01:50:25 --> 01:50:32 stream, bro. But we're waiting for the green light after the buy side's taken
1254 01:50:32 --> 01:50:40 here. I it now.
1255 01:51:00 --> 01:51:06 Let me ask you a question. If you were say you went long, okay, say you were
1256 01:51:06 --> 01:51:11 long in here, somewhere in this area, or maybe you use this inefficiency here,
1257 01:51:12 --> 01:51:17 how would you feel with way the market is trading right here? Would you feel
1258 01:51:17 --> 01:51:21 uncomfortable? Would you feel like you're comfortably going to submit to
1259 01:51:21 --> 01:51:25 eventually break into the upside, to get these relative equal highs. And would
1260 01:51:25 --> 01:51:30 you expect that to continue if it goes up here and keep moving higher, or are
1261 01:51:30 --> 01:51:37 you trying to just get out and be done with it here? Because Admittedly, I
1262 01:51:37 --> 01:51:42 would be a little uncomfortable with the amount of time it's spending in here,
1263 01:51:46 --> 01:51:51 because it could very well do what we saw a couple weeks ago, the same thing
1264 01:51:51 --> 01:51:59 with NASDAQ. It would fit the underlying idea about if it's going to drop for
1265 01:51:59 --> 01:52:03 NASDAQ to go down to that weekly inefficiency by them leaving this area
1266 01:52:03 --> 01:52:07 up here smooth like that, because it doesn't have to go up there and do that.
1267 01:52:07 --> 01:52:10 I just wanted to do that. And then that would give me confidence. If it starts
1268 01:52:10 --> 01:52:13 to break down, then we can take our attention over here, for sell side, for
1269 01:52:13 --> 01:52:21 ES and then, more specifically, what we were looking for, for NASDAQ. And down
1270 01:52:21 --> 01:52:30 here, right there. So while it's up here, retail traders are not thinking
1271 01:52:30 --> 01:52:35 anything down here is it's completely outside their radar. They're not linked.
1272 01:52:35 --> 01:52:38 They're not even thinking about it. They don't think it's it's even possible.
1273 01:52:39 --> 01:52:44 They're looking for continuation to the upside, small little gap here,
1274 01:52:50 --> 01:52:51 yes,
1275 01:52:58 --> 01:53:03 now you've learned again, something new today. I've taught this already. It's
1276 01:53:03 --> 01:53:11 uncor mentorship on a YouTube channel. If you look at 2016 2017 private
1277 01:53:11 --> 01:53:15 mentorship, that's my paid mentorship lectures. And there are people,
1278 01:53:15 --> 01:53:21 literally, on Instagram, on YouTube, on Twitter, everywhere, trying to sell
1279 01:53:21 --> 01:53:24 those same videos for free. They're on my YouTube channel, but they're trying
1280 01:53:24 --> 01:53:27 to sell them to you, they'll be a stupid ass go to the YouTube channel and watch
1281 01:53:27 --> 01:53:38 it for free. But I taught decoupling in the in the core content lessons. And the
1282 01:53:38 --> 01:53:43 same thing with Forex. So if you're watching Forex or trading Forex, if
1283 01:53:43 --> 01:53:48 you're trading up Euro dollar, or you're trading POUND DOLLAR, if you're bullish
1284 01:53:48 --> 01:53:52 on POUND DOLLAR, you should see in a symmetrical market, Eurodollar be
1285 01:53:52 --> 01:53:57 bullish and dollar be bearish. That's a symmetrical triad, like you have to have
1286 01:53:57 --> 01:54:02 three things in forex. It's not just a one type thing. Can you trade profitably
1287 01:54:02 --> 01:54:06 with just watching one pair and nothing else? Yes, if you're a price action
1288 01:54:06 --> 01:54:11 trader, but to get a full panoramic view of what price is doing and how it should
1289 01:54:11 --> 01:54:15 be viewed as high probability or low probability in forex, you want to have a
1290 01:54:15 --> 01:54:20 correlated pair, positively correlated, meaning your dollar is positively
1291 01:54:20 --> 01:54:24 correlated to euro dollar. They usually move in sympathy. One or that one goes
1292 01:54:24 --> 01:54:28 up, the other one usually goes up, not all the time, but generally they do. And
1293 01:54:28 --> 01:54:32 if that's occurring, if both are moving up, the dollar index better be moving
1294 01:54:32 --> 01:54:36 down. That's a symmetrical market. There are instances where the POUND DOLLAR
1295 01:54:36 --> 01:54:42 going up, Euro dollar going down, and dollar sitting still. And that's going
1296 01:54:42 --> 01:54:48 to be a Euro pound short because it's it's a break. Let me make sure I said
1297 01:54:48 --> 01:54:54 that right. Dollar sitting still, POUND DOLLAR going up. Euro dollar going down.
1298 01:54:55 --> 01:55:01 Yeah, that's going to be a Euro pound short if. If the dollar index is
1299 01:55:01 --> 01:55:04 consolidating, that means that your crosses without the dollar in them,
1300 01:55:05 --> 01:55:09 closely correlated pairs are going to be paired together, like to make a cross,
1301 01:55:09 --> 01:55:15 like Euro pound, that will make them go up and the dollar will just sit still.
1302 01:55:15 --> 01:55:22 So, you know, in reality, forex is a lot more complicated to teach than index
1303 01:55:22 --> 01:55:26 futures, and index futures is a better market to trade because everybody has
1304 01:55:26 --> 01:55:30 the same price. You don't get the same tomfoolery with brokers, where they can
1305 01:55:30 --> 01:55:34 give you a different high, a different low, the spread can widen and take your
1306 01:55:34 --> 01:55:39 stop, but everybody else's broker firm didn't get that same price. So you're
1307 01:55:39 --> 01:55:46 asking to lose money there, like you, you're asking to lose money. So in
1308 01:55:46 --> 01:55:50 futures, it's a lot, a lot more level playing field. And even though there are
1309 01:55:50 --> 01:55:55 some things like we have here today, you're learning the very things that
1310 01:55:55 --> 01:56:00 prevents me from showing you these enormous lists of losing trades, because
1311 01:56:00 --> 01:56:04 I can, I can recognize these things. And it's the logic that repeats in the
1312 01:56:04 --> 01:56:07 lectures I've already given out in the core content lessons on this YouTube
1313 01:56:08 --> 01:56:14 channel. If you know how you're going to lose money, if you can recognize the
1314 01:56:14 --> 01:56:19 conditions, that's going to be more difficult than it should be, doesn't it
1315 01:56:19 --> 01:56:24 make sense for you not to take trades yet and wait for the that movement in
1316 01:56:24 --> 01:56:30 your favor where it's obvious, so where it's at right now, that volume of
1317 01:56:30 --> 01:56:34 balance that should be the end of it. If it's going to go up there, it should be
1318 01:56:34 --> 01:56:37 done here, and it should start to move up. If not, it's going to break below
1319 01:56:37 --> 01:56:44 here, and then we'll start seeing the NASDAQ move in sympathy with that of the
1320 01:56:44 --> 01:56:50 Dow. Look at the Dow. This is staying down on its lows. So whenever you see
1321 01:56:52 --> 01:56:59 this decoupling, every price run if whether you're trading the ES or if
1322 01:56:59 --> 01:57:03 you're trading the NASDAQ, I guess, for the folks that are just nuts and want to
1323 01:57:03 --> 01:57:07 trade at 3030, if you want to trade this, in this industry here the Dow,
1324 01:57:09 --> 01:57:13 look what it's doing. Would you want to trade this when the NASDAQ and the SMP
1325 01:57:13 --> 01:57:18 are going up? So I'm kind of give you the the Flipped perspective of it. Say
1326 01:57:18 --> 01:57:22 you are predominantly a Dow trader. Would you want to be trading this
1327 01:57:22 --> 01:57:28 indicee, if it's doing this against the two higher composite indices, which is
1328 01:57:28 --> 01:57:32 the NASDAQ, which uses 100 stocks to make that composite index, and then you
1329 01:57:32 --> 01:57:36 have the S, p5, 100, which uses 500 individual stocks to make up its
1330 01:57:36 --> 01:57:41 composite so if both of those are going higher, and this one's going down lower.
1331 01:57:43 --> 01:57:48 What does that mean for you as a Dow trader? It's still decoupled, right? So
1332 01:57:48 --> 01:57:51 they should be moving in agreement and sympathy one another. They all three
1333 01:57:51 --> 01:57:54 should be going up if they're bullish, and all three should be moving down when
1334 01:57:54 --> 01:57:58 they're bearish. If there is ever a time when that is not true, like we see here
1335 01:57:58 --> 01:58:02 this morning, that is a sit still and wait. You have plenty of time the rest
1336 01:58:02 --> 01:58:07 of the day. You have plenty of time. You still have the the PAL speech later
1337 01:58:07 --> 01:58:15 today, which is inviting this very event here, decoupling. A lot of people don't.
1338 01:58:15 --> 01:58:19 There's not a lot of big money movement right now. They're just moving price
1339 01:58:19 --> 01:58:25 around after pal done talking, 15 minutes after that, you're going to see
1340 01:58:25 --> 01:58:31 very nice, clean price action. But are you willing to wait for that? Most
1341 01:58:31 --> 01:58:31 people aren't.
1342 01:58:36 --> 01:58:37 Okay.
1343 01:58:37 --> 01:58:40 Let me overshot that volume balances by a little bit into a gap here.
1344 01:58:50 --> 01:58:55 So are you watching any other live streamers besides me? Are they
1345 01:58:55 --> 01:58:59 complaining about the ugliness of the price action yet? I'm sitting here
1346 01:58:59 --> 01:59:04 sipping some water, smiling, thinking, none of this is a surprise.
1347 01:59:09 --> 01:59:20 I'm not surprised Nate Diaz, so like I said, it gets down to that volume
1348 01:59:20 --> 01:59:25 imbalance that should have been have started to rotate higher if it's going
1349 01:59:25 --> 01:59:28 to go up for that buy side. That was the time for it to do so. So far, it's it's
1350 01:59:28 --> 01:59:33 indicating that it could not that it will. Yet, I'm more interested in once
1351 01:59:33 --> 01:59:40 we get there, once we get into this area here, does it hold does it stay there
1352 01:59:40 --> 01:59:45 and go higher? Or does it go there, spend a little bit of time, which is
1353 01:59:45 --> 01:59:48 reasonable, and then start to break down? Because that means that they went
1354 01:59:48 --> 01:59:53 out there to accumulate those buy stops, and now they've unseated anyone that was
1355 01:59:53 --> 02:00:00 probably short, and any movement lower, they're on board with the targets. And
1356 02:00:00 --> 02:00:03 things I've outlined at the beginning of pre market analysis. So far, there's
1357 02:00:03 --> 02:00:10 literally nothing in here that I would be long on, not one thing, not that
1358 02:00:10 --> 02:00:14 there ain't setups there, there are, but there would not be any of them with my
1359 02:00:14 --> 02:00:21 money behind it. And you'll get that, and you understand that when you can see
1360 02:00:21 --> 02:00:30 setups that are on multiple time frames, multi directional, you can be a buyer
1361 02:00:30 --> 02:00:35 and seller in the same day just because you can see them there, just because you
1362 02:00:35 --> 02:00:38 anticipate them panning out, just because you can frame a stop loss,
1363 02:00:38 --> 02:00:46 that's reasonable, if it goes against your analysis, and you're waiting for
1364 02:00:46 --> 02:00:50 your setup, why would you be impulsive and try to do something and prove that
1365 02:00:50 --> 02:00:56 you're not patient, that you are impulsive, it goes against the entire
1366 02:00:56 --> 02:01:01 grain of what makes a profitable, consistently profitable trader in the
1367 02:01:01 --> 02:01:04 mindset that they hold. You have to have a you have to have control over
1368 02:01:04 --> 02:01:10 yourself. You have to have a discipline to stick to. If you've done the work and
1369 02:01:10 --> 02:01:15 the analysis, then wait for the setup to come to you, and everything else that's
1370 02:01:15 --> 02:01:18 going on outside of that should have absolutely no effect on you. You
1371 02:01:18 --> 02:01:21 shouldn't be losing your mind over it. Shouldn't be panicked about it. You
1372 02:01:21 --> 02:01:24 shouldn't be. I'm afraid it's going to go other direction. What if it rallies
1373 02:01:24 --> 02:01:32 250 points? So what it's Monday. 250 points is nothing. You literally have to
1374 02:01:32 --> 02:01:39 stop making every next trade decision the pentacle of your career. Because
1375 02:01:39 --> 02:01:43 when you when you do that, you're actually creating the exit ramp for your
1376 02:01:43 --> 02:01:47 career, or at least for that account. You're probably going to blow it because
1377 02:01:47 --> 02:01:52 you're placing too much emphasis on having to do something. I'm watching the
1378 02:01:52 --> 02:02:00 bodies in here in respect to this gap in here. Very, very, very content with the
1379 02:02:01 --> 02:02:13 sideline right now. The job is real. He should make T shirts, man, he could make
1380 02:02:13 --> 02:02:15 money on that you see me making somehow, I
1381 02:02:24 --> 02:02:31 look at that. That gap I was telling you there, boom, and that's gonna take a
1382 02:02:31 --> 02:02:32 look at that real quick,
1383 02:02:38 --> 02:02:44 pulling up into its gap, right there. It's a little smooth. I guess on the
1384 02:02:44 --> 02:02:53 upside in it, they might want to pop that with ES, but you can see how much
1385 02:02:53 --> 02:02:58 more complicated this is a complex market to trade in this morning, because
1386 02:02:58 --> 02:03:04 you have each in the indicee doing its own thing, and it's real hard to frame
1387 02:03:04 --> 02:03:10 low risk in that environment. You can see what it's likely to do. But is it
1388 02:03:10 --> 02:03:15 worth putting your money? Putting your money behind it? Not for me. You're
1389 02:03:15 --> 02:03:18 walking to do what you want to do, take your pick your wins and go on social
1390 02:03:18 --> 02:03:23 media and get your trophies and stuff. But yeah, not me. I'd rather sit here
1391 02:03:23 --> 02:03:28 and prove that I have discipline over myself, that I'm going to stick to the
1392 02:03:28 --> 02:03:33 tools that I trade and authored, and I'm going to let the setups come to me, and
1393 02:03:33 --> 02:03:36 if it runs without me, it's okay. I'm good enough to know that I'm going to be
1394 02:03:36 --> 02:03:39 able to find this up in the afternoon. I'm good enough to know that I can trade
1395 02:03:39 --> 02:03:42 that last hour and make whatever I need to make in a job in a month I can make
1396 02:03:42 --> 02:03:47 that in in the last hour trading. That's the confidence. But that sounds like
1397 02:03:47 --> 02:03:52 arrogance. It sounds like it's bullshit, because you all that think that way
1398 02:03:53 --> 02:03:59 can't do it. So you think nobody can. And that's not true. If you just stop
1399 02:03:59 --> 02:04:03 thinking critically like that, and just try to learn you can be able to do it
1400 02:04:03 --> 02:04:06 too. And you'll think, wow, I used to troll you too. ICT, but now look at this
1401 02:04:07 --> 02:04:13 good welcome. Alright, so we're inside the new week opening gap here. It's also
1402 02:04:13 --> 02:04:17 constant encroachment of the opening range gap that's at that yellow box is
1403 02:04:18 --> 02:04:25 so in a perfect world, it would want to drive into this cell side here, this
1404 02:04:25 --> 02:04:28 gap, as it was trading up into that I was telling you, watch that gap right
1405 02:04:28 --> 02:04:37 there. And she was very, very useful there. It's very close to the high of
1406 02:04:37 --> 02:04:41 the imbalance that's shaded in purple, or whatever shade that closes the curve
1407 02:04:41 --> 02:04:42 is here. I'm.
1408 02:05:12 --> 02:05:18 Now in that yellow box, what can happen, and I would like to see happen, is for
1409 02:05:18 --> 02:05:23 it to drop down, stay inside this red box, come back up and touch the bottom
1410 02:05:23 --> 02:05:27 of the yellow box. And if it leaves that volume of balance, come back up and
1411 02:05:27 --> 02:05:31 reprice to that volume of balance between this candles here and here, hit
1412 02:05:31 --> 02:05:35 that and then rotate lower. But it may not do that. Maybe just just take off
1413 02:05:35 --> 02:05:38 from either way. It's fine. I told you I wanted to see it go to here, but I'd
1414 02:05:38 --> 02:05:44 like to see it use the opening range, gap low that this yellow box represents.
1415 02:05:44 --> 02:05:44 I don't
1416 02:05:58 --> 02:06:03 want to see it deliver like that, though. It needs to be a separate
1417 02:06:03 --> 02:06:07 candle. In other words, if the candle would have been down here and stopped
1418 02:06:07 --> 02:06:13 and created a new candle and trade up to it any type of return back to a premium
1419 02:06:13 --> 02:06:17 array you want to see it do that you don't want to look at it on the same
1420 02:06:17 --> 02:06:21 candlestick where it moves away from the PD array and comes back to it and saying
1421 02:06:21 --> 02:06:24 that that's never what you want to see. That's never, ever, ever a point of
1422 02:06:24 --> 02:06:30 entry for you to use it like that. It needs to create a new candlestick and
1423 02:06:30 --> 02:06:36 trade up into it, then expect it to roll over. This is what you get by just
1424 02:06:36 --> 02:06:41 reaching these little lows here, back inside the opening range. So take a
1425 02:06:41 --> 02:06:46 quick look at es once more. This is the benefit of having multiple screens, by
1426 02:06:46 --> 02:06:51 the way, or dividing your screen. But I want to keep you know one big chart on
1427 02:06:51 --> 02:06:57 the screen as I talk, my eyes are a little bit fatigued when I'm done doing
1428 02:06:57 --> 02:07:02 these live streams, when we're doing two screens and I'm squinting, I gotta, I
1429 02:07:02 --> 02:07:05 gotta protect my eyes. As much as I want to teach it, I'd still have to take care
1430 02:07:05 --> 02:07:16 of my eyes. So imagine you're an ES trader. How you feeling right now? You
1431 02:07:16 --> 02:07:19 feel confident? Are you? Are you confident about your short? Are you
1432 02:07:19 --> 02:07:22 confident about your long? Are you confident that you made the right
1433 02:07:22 --> 02:07:26 decision by sitting still? Are you regretting that you did anything yet? Or
1434 02:07:26 --> 02:07:30 did you chop yourself up already because the market didn't chop you up? You
1435 02:07:30 --> 02:07:30 chopped yourself,
1436 02:07:41 --> 02:07:45 telling you, man, if I would have had someone telling me where the market is
1437 02:07:45 --> 02:07:50 going to create these high resistance liquidity runs, how they were going to
1438 02:07:50 --> 02:07:54 create these conditions that were going to be problematic to me trading, I would
1439 02:07:54 --> 02:07:59 be grateful for that, because I would have been looking For instances where,
1440 02:08:00 --> 02:08:03 where I blew my accounts. Right. Hold on one second I
1441 02:09:02 --> 02:09:09 sorry about that. My wife's just got back dogs that were beaten. But as I was
1442 02:09:09 --> 02:09:14 saying, I would want to see I want to see someone explain when I was 20 years
1443 02:09:14 --> 02:09:18 old, how to avoid when the market's hard. Because I thought every day was a
1444 02:09:18 --> 02:09:24 trading opportunity, and I didn't think that there'd be times where there's not
1445 02:09:25 --> 02:09:28 all the advantages that should be afforded to a trader. Like I thought
1446 02:09:28 --> 02:09:31 that I just didn't know enough, and everything that's going on in price
1447 02:09:31 --> 02:09:36 action was an opportunity for someone to take a trade on and they they could be
1448 02:09:36 --> 02:09:40 profitable every day. That that's the belief I had. And I found that that I
1449 02:09:40 --> 02:09:43 was losing a lot because I didn't understand these types of conditions
1450 02:09:43 --> 02:09:46 where we have decoupling. Now think about what you've learned so far this
1451 02:09:46 --> 02:09:51 year, and just in the last eight weeks, you've learned how to identify high
1452 02:09:51 --> 02:09:55 resistance liquidity profiles. You've learned about seek and destroy and how
1453 02:09:55 --> 02:10:00 to anticipate them and see what it looks like real time to identify it. You. Seen
1454 02:10:00 --> 02:10:06 an episode here now with decoupling. And how do we anticipate decoupling whenever
1455 02:10:06 --> 02:10:13 there's a Fed Chair speech, FOMC, those types of things cause decoupling.
1456 02:10:14 --> 02:10:18 Everything just unravels. And that's why you have to wait 15 minutes after he's
1457 02:10:18 --> 02:10:22 done talking this to allow for things to try to get back in sync. And they may
1458 02:10:22 --> 02:10:26 not get in sync in the first 15 minutes after he's done talking, did you? But
1459 02:10:26 --> 02:10:30 you wait until they do. If you, if you don't see that, you sit on your hands,
1460 02:10:30 --> 02:10:37 and you don't feel bad about it, you don't regret it. Yes, it gives you a
1461 02:10:37 --> 02:10:44 peace of mind, milk of it. Yes, that's, oh, that would make me mad if I was in
1462 02:10:44 --> 02:10:51 that man, like, come on, what are you doing to me? And NASDAQ is rolling back
1463 02:10:51 --> 02:10:56 down outside of the opening range gap. So same thing I was outlining here. I'd
1464 02:10:56 --> 02:11:01 like to see it trade down in the lower portion of that pink box, create a new
1465 02:11:01 --> 02:11:05 candle without leaving or going below this low here, create a new candlestick,
1466 02:11:05 --> 02:11:11 come up and trade up into the low and or the lower quadrant of this yellow box,
1467 02:11:11 --> 02:11:15 because we went back up and did what traded back into the new week opening
1468 02:11:15 --> 02:11:18 gap repriced to the volume and bounce rate in here between these two candles
1469 02:11:18 --> 02:11:23 bodies in here. So the only market that's doing. What we would want to see
1470 02:11:23 --> 02:11:30 happen in price action is the NASDAQ. You see that. So the symmetry in the
1471 02:11:30 --> 02:11:36 market as a whole is broken, but we are able to see price cleaner on this one,
1472 02:11:36 --> 02:11:39 then we can see it on the Dow and or the ES. You
1473 02:11:50 --> 02:11:53 that's just as good. Coming up didn't, didn't quite get to it. So by not
1474 02:11:53 --> 02:11:57 trading back to the opening range, gap low, breaking down like this, for the
1475 02:11:57 --> 02:12:00 sell side, that's actually weak, that's good. You want to see that, but
1476 02:12:00 --> 02:12:04 affording yourself the opportunity to do this very thing here, that's that's
1477 02:12:04 --> 02:12:04 good,
1478 02:12:10 --> 02:12:14 and see if we can
1479 02:12:15 --> 02:12:18 rush down below these lows and accelerate, not just go below it and
1480 02:12:18 --> 02:12:21 come back up into the Opening range gap. We don't see that.
1481 02:12:40 --> 02:12:45 Knowing when to sit still, that is an art that you all should master, because
1482 02:12:46 --> 02:12:50 it's these days where you're going to lose money, and you won't realize it
1483 02:12:50 --> 02:12:54 until after the day ends, and you look at it like, Man, I wish I would have
1484 02:12:54 --> 02:12:57 stopped trading great when I felt like it was getting too hard, it was getting
1485 02:12:57 --> 02:13:05 messy, or You all call it choppy. Now you're learning how to see it real time,
1486 02:13:05 --> 02:13:09 so that way you can sit still and behave. Don't act like a fool and get
1487 02:13:09 --> 02:13:12 there and just try to do something, because you have time to in front of the
1488 02:13:12 --> 02:13:17 charts, exercise and control over yourself, knowing what you're looking
1489 02:13:17 --> 02:13:22 for. If it doesn't come to you, don't do anything. Don't anticipate the setup and
1490 02:13:22 --> 02:13:26 enter before the setup is there. Anticipate the setup and when it comes,
1491 02:13:26 --> 02:13:30 then pounce on it. You're not reacting. You're anticipating it. But if the
1492 02:13:30 --> 02:13:35 market's presenting opportunities that are far less likely because the symmetry
1493 02:13:35 --> 02:13:38 is not there, that means all three indices are doing an independent thing.
1494 02:13:39 --> 02:13:43 Well, that's never a market environment where you should be using high risk and
1495 02:13:43 --> 02:13:50 or forcing. I gotta get into a trade. You don't need to feel that way. Now,
1496 02:13:50 --> 02:13:53 again, I don't want to see it just go below these relative equal lows. I don't
1497 02:13:53 --> 02:13:57 want to see it go down a little bit and then come right back up into this yellow
1498 02:13:57 --> 02:14:13 box. That's not something I want to see. I oops, beautiful, innit, beautiful,
1499 02:14:13 --> 02:14:14 almost like a thumb,
1500 02:14:16 --> 02:14:17 useless.
1501 02:14:20 --> 02:14:24 There's that gap still in play. Let's see if they want to jump up there and
1502 02:14:24 --> 02:14:31 get that little area there, somewhat of a, somewhat of a breaker, I'm telling
1503 02:14:31 --> 02:14:37 you, you couldn't, you couldn't pay me extra to trade the Dow. It's just an
1504 02:14:37 --> 02:14:43 ugly indices. I can't stand it. I've made money with it, but I've lost more
1505 02:14:43 --> 02:14:49 money trading down than either of the three indices because of this. It just
1506 02:14:50 --> 02:14:56 does some squirrely stuff that I just don't like it, alright? So NASDAQ should
1507 02:14:56 --> 02:15:00 get some movement lower. So we're leaving. There's three. Eyes up there in
1508 02:15:00 --> 02:15:06 ES. So that bolsters the idea of, if NASDAQ can get down to where we were
1509 02:15:06 --> 02:15:10 outlined this morning, they might be onboarding longs there then come up
1510 02:15:10 --> 02:15:19 higher later on, not necessarily today, but later on we did might be revisited.
1511 02:15:22 --> 02:15:25 So not bad.
1512 02:15:29 --> 02:15:33 The key takeaway Caleb so far is we were able to see that that that gap right
1513 02:15:33 --> 02:15:39 there could be used. And we've been framing the idea that we want to see
1514 02:15:39 --> 02:15:47 NASDAQ go down, not go up. So we've seen the market trade lower. We had a swing
1515 02:15:47 --> 02:15:52 low in here that was pierced there. So you have a shift in market structure.
1516 02:15:52 --> 02:15:55 Fair value gap trades up into it beautifully. We were calling the fair
1517 02:15:55 --> 02:15:58 value gap before it traded up there. So I said, watch it. You'll see it in the
1518 02:15:58 --> 02:16:02 stream. You'll be able to rewind it. In fact, you probably still should be able
1519 02:16:02 --> 02:16:04 to rewind it now. But rewind it now, but you shouldn't be rewinding anything
1520 02:16:05 --> 02:16:08 while I'm talking because you're going to lose some kind of information that
1521 02:16:08 --> 02:16:16 I'm talking about live. But then we delivered nicely off of that, and then
1522 02:16:17 --> 02:16:21 we traded down to half of the first presented fair value got, which is this
1523 02:16:21 --> 02:16:29 candlestick here. So in In fairness, it looks like this. And again, this is why
1524 02:16:29 --> 02:16:32 I don't draw everything on the chart that I'm referring to. Because look how
1525 02:16:32 --> 02:16:37 much, look how much is are we on the chart? It makes it complicated if I do
1526 02:16:37 --> 02:16:42 it this way, but I have to draw them, so that way you can see what my eye is
1527 02:16:42 --> 02:16:47 keyed up on, and I'm looking at it in this perspective. But I don't need it to
1528 02:16:47 --> 02:16:50 be on the chart, you know. I'll show you what I mean by that. This candle sticks
1529 02:16:50 --> 02:16:58 low, and the down closed candle. Here's i that is this shaded area here. Okay,
1530 02:16:58 --> 02:17:04 so this I'm just
1531 02:17:04 --> 02:17:10 might as well tuck it in here, too, if we're bearish, which was what we've been
1532 02:17:11 --> 02:17:15 focusing on for NASDAQ today, we're not interested in being a buyer. It can go
1533 02:17:15 --> 02:17:20 up and not have any interest for us. I'm not interested in it. I want to see the
1534 02:17:20 --> 02:17:24 the sell off. I want to see the short side of it. So if the first presented
1535 02:17:24 --> 02:17:28 fair value gap here at 931 which is the earliest it can form, based on what I'm
1536 02:17:28 --> 02:17:33 giving Caleb as a model, if I'm bearish, and this is the fair value gap that
1537 02:17:33 --> 02:17:38 we're going to focus on, how would this candlestick be used as an inversion fair
1538 02:17:38 --> 02:17:43 value gap? Now I'm saying slowly and carefully, because I want to make sure
1539 02:17:43 --> 02:17:46 that I correct myself. Because I did something incorrect last week in stream,
1540 02:17:47 --> 02:17:52 I said something incorrectly, and then, because I heard myself say it, and I was
1541 02:17:52 --> 02:17:56 live streaming, I kept going back to calling it the same thing incorrectly,
1542 02:17:57 --> 02:18:02 and it was based on me drawing on the chart. And it disorients me. So when
1543 02:18:02 --> 02:18:09 you're bearish on the market, up close candles that make a fair value gap,
1544 02:18:09 --> 02:18:12 which is a buy side and balance sell sign, efficiency is going to be a
1545 02:18:12 --> 02:18:21 bearish inversion, fair value gap. So if we go down like we do here we went to
1546 02:18:21 --> 02:18:25 consequent crochet of that gap, which let me shade it with the little
1547 02:18:25 --> 02:18:27 horizontal thing in there,
1548 02:18:29 --> 02:18:30 make it bold.
1549 02:18:32 --> 02:18:36 So we've been bearish. The market used the fair value, got the outline before
1550 02:18:36 --> 02:18:42 it went into it trades lower, trades down into and away from see the barn
1551 02:18:42 --> 02:18:49 shaded area here, this box we left, it came back up, went right to consequent
1552 02:18:49 --> 02:18:54 encouragement, to the tick, right to the tick. Then it behaves as an inversion,
1553 02:18:54 --> 02:19:02 fair value gap, lower if at any time after it delivers on the basis like it's
1554 02:19:02 --> 02:19:06 done here. It's reacted and left it and took out a low that has already done
1555 02:19:06 --> 02:19:11 enough to afford it as a properly classified inversion, fair value gap. It
1556 02:19:11 --> 02:19:14 does not need to trade down the sell side here. Does not need to go down the
1557 02:19:14 --> 02:19:17 target outline. Today, it offered a trade to take out the sell side that
1558 02:19:17 --> 02:19:21 would be resting rate low here, from Costco, encroachment to that low. That's
1559 02:19:21 --> 02:19:28 a setup. If we ever trade back above and back into this fair value gap and come
1560 02:19:28 --> 02:19:33 back down into it, this would be classified as a reclaimed, bullish fair
1561 02:19:33 --> 02:19:37 value gap, because it's an up close candle. That's how you classify it. I
1562 02:19:37 --> 02:19:41 made the mistake of calling it an inversion fair value gap last week when
1563 02:19:41 --> 02:19:45 it wasn't so it should have been called a reclaimed, bullish, fair value I got.
1564 02:19:45 --> 02:19:48 So I made a mistake last week in the washroom, and it's because I got
1565 02:19:48 --> 02:19:51 disoriented by drawing on the chart I know what I'm looking for. To go back
1566 02:19:51 --> 02:19:56 and listen to what I was describing, you'll hear me describing what what I
1567 02:19:56 --> 02:20:01 see price do with that range, and I just missed. Labeled it by by the name. But
1568 02:20:01 --> 02:20:06 what I was expecting see price do around it is what was accurate. But I did make
1569 02:20:06 --> 02:20:10 a mistake and call it inversion. Fair value should have been reclaimed fairy
1570 02:20:10 --> 02:20:20 guy. So again, you know, even in a sloppy, just disjointed, decoupled
1571 02:20:20 --> 02:20:34 market where the ES is doing this, and the Dow is doing that our market, we did
1572 02:20:34 --> 02:20:40 pre market analysis on and all the PDAs are delivering fairbag appetolja Weaver
1573 02:20:40 --> 02:20:45 and consolidate around up in here? Perfect. I told you, retail is going to
1574 02:20:45 --> 02:20:50 want it to go higher. Well, what am I doing? I'm arm wrestling retail with
1575 02:20:50 --> 02:20:53 Smart Money concepts. Smart Money traders are shorting up here,
1576 02:20:53 --> 02:20:57 accumulating news positions, then we have a displacement lower at the fair
1577 02:20:57 --> 02:21:00 value gap. We were down here. I told you, watch this fair value gap here
1578 02:21:00 --> 02:21:04 trades up into it perfectly, drops down first fair value gap year. It's a buy
1579 02:21:04 --> 02:21:07 side about sales and efficiency when we're bearish, meaning what it's going
1580 02:21:07 --> 02:21:10 to be used as an inversion fair value gap, once it trades out of it, comes
1581 02:21:10 --> 02:21:14 back up. Consequent encouragement. You want to see the lower half be used for
1582 02:21:14 --> 02:21:19 entries. And once we leave it, the upper half stay untouched. And that's exactly
1583 02:21:19 --> 02:21:23 what you're seeing here. And then our markets trade down into South Side
1584 02:21:23 --> 02:21:34 liquidity there. So now we take this and we couple it at this low, and we dim
1585 02:21:34 --> 02:21:40 this one. It's on your chart. Still Caleb, it'll be in the in the chart, but
1586 02:21:40 --> 02:21:45 just, I'm not trying to draw too much emphasis on it. Now, this is for you to
1587 02:21:45 --> 02:21:50 be able to have it in your notes, screenshotting it only today's stuff,
1588 02:21:50 --> 02:21:52 son, tomorrow you're gonna do your own charts.
1589 02:21:57 --> 02:22:02 Okay, so we want to see this expand down. We don't want to see it come back
1590 02:22:02 --> 02:22:06 up into this inefficiency up here. It's in this box, shaded area, opening range
1591 02:22:06 --> 02:22:13 gap. We're going to take that out for now. You see the inversion, fair value
1592 02:22:13 --> 02:22:18 gap there. And we want to see speed here, aggressively run down and take
1593 02:22:18 --> 02:22:22 that cell side. We don't want to see them to pull their orders. You don't
1594 02:22:22 --> 02:22:27 need level two data for that stuff. You don't need bookmap. You don't need
1595 02:22:29 --> 02:22:35 anything else. You just gotta just look at Where's price. If you were long from
1596 02:22:35 --> 02:22:42 anywhere in here and or you went long up here, but your stop loss is below here.
1597 02:22:43 --> 02:22:46 How confident would you be that you're in a good position, that would still be
1598 02:22:46 --> 02:22:51 in the trade, or that you think this is still a bullish market? These are all
1599 02:22:51 --> 02:22:54 questions that I think about when I'm watching price, when it starts to move
1600 02:22:54 --> 02:22:59 towards the old low or old high. I try to put myself in a position of who was
1601 02:22:59 --> 02:23:05 in this trade right now who was getting long, or maybe would have regretted
1602 02:23:05 --> 02:23:09 being long, and maybe they didn't like look this and say, Hey, this is a good
1603 02:23:09 --> 02:23:13 time to buy. I missed this opportunity, but now they're presenting this. So is
1604 02:23:13 --> 02:23:18 that something that they would be wanting to buy into that I don't know.
1605 02:23:19 --> 02:23:20 Yes.
1606 02:23:20 --> 02:23:33 I single time things you
1607 02:23:52 --> 02:24:02 we're almost enough there, yeah, this one's so dirty. It's, it's probably
1608 02:24:03 --> 02:24:06 going to want to unsettled this, these highs up here.
1609 02:24:12 --> 02:24:16 So that's, that's more like where I would expect them to take the Dow,
1610 02:24:16 --> 02:24:17 because Dow just broke
1611 02:24:17 --> 02:24:20 lower rate from the opening. I a
1612 02:24:31 --> 02:24:35 challenging market today for folks out there that aren't looking at the things
1613 02:24:35 --> 02:24:41 I'm teaching. That's an invitation to show me your trades, by the way, for the
1614 02:24:41 --> 02:24:46 folks that went to troll me, show me your Elliott Wave today. Show me your
1615 02:24:46 --> 02:24:51 show your knickknacks, Patty wax. Give a dog a bone. Thank you.
1616 02:25:09 --> 02:25:13 What are characteristics of high resistance, liquidity run profiles,
1617 02:25:15 --> 02:25:21 deeper retracements that you than you want to see targets get traded to later
1618 02:25:21 --> 02:25:22 than you want to see them traded
1619 02:25:34 --> 02:25:40 to smaller inefficiency. There three up those candles, changes, day deliveries
1620 02:25:40 --> 02:25:46 that open price there, that would be like the last line in the sand for me. I
1621 02:25:46 --> 02:25:51 wouldn't want to have anything else go higher than that. Like I said, I want to
1622 02:25:51 --> 02:25:56 see them come back to that first presenter fair value gap. To do that is
1623 02:25:56 --> 02:26:01 problematic for being short in the first hour trading, and we are basically
1624 02:26:01 --> 02:26:03 technically ending that in 15 seconds, so
1625 02:26:17 --> 02:26:25 time together. So in quick summary, I'll try to do this in one minute. We looked
1626 02:26:25 --> 02:26:31 at how the market presented reasons why I believe that we still could very well
1627 02:26:32 --> 02:26:38 be down here. I think that that will still be a factor for this week, they
1628 02:26:38 --> 02:26:43 left this sell side in place. They went back inside of the new week opening gap,
1629 02:26:43 --> 02:26:46 which are these two purple dash lines in here? And we're back inside of the first
1630 02:26:46 --> 02:26:52 resentful fair value gap. Caleb, you would not use this as your short here.
1631 02:26:52 --> 02:26:58 Yes, there again. No, what is it doing? It's returning back to your point of
1632 02:26:58 --> 02:27:02 interest. If it's going back there twice, it's not as good as you want it
1633 02:27:02 --> 02:27:05 to be, and you want it to react the first time you get into it and then
1634 02:27:05 --> 02:27:10 displace lower. It did go to our sell side. It got close to the next one here,
1635 02:27:10 --> 02:27:13 but then said, No, I'm not going there, and started pulling back up. And I told
1636 02:27:13 --> 02:27:17 you, I did not want to see it return back to the first percent of fair value
1637 02:27:17 --> 02:27:20 gap. I didn't want to see it go back to the low of this imbalance here. So
1638 02:27:20 --> 02:27:24 because it was going to go here, it's going to go back to the first presented
1639 02:27:24 --> 02:27:28 fair value gap and or inside what new week opening gap. So if it's going back
1640 02:27:28 --> 02:27:33 there, that's fine. It's going to do so without you. So your trade would be
1641 02:27:34 --> 02:27:39 entering here at consequent encroachment of your first presented fair value gap.
1642 02:27:39 --> 02:27:44 That's going to be inversion, also keying up on the new week, opening gap,
1643 02:27:44 --> 02:27:48 laying over top of that. And your target would be these relative equal lows. You
1644 02:27:48 --> 02:27:52 take a large portion off if you were inclined to have more than one. You
1645 02:27:52 --> 02:27:56 don't have more than one contract now, but in your notes, you're going to say
1646 02:27:56 --> 02:27:59 this would be first partial or majority of your trade off. Why? Because you're
1647 02:27:59 --> 02:28:05 in a decoupled market, and then your next target would be here, which did not
1648 02:28:05 --> 02:28:10 pan out. So you would be stopped out going back into the first potential fair
1649 02:28:10 --> 02:28:16 value gap. So you're only going to be able to annotate with the basis of this
1650 02:28:16 --> 02:28:21 being your profit taken, and you watch as much as this deliver, but that next
1651 02:28:21 --> 02:28:26 level didn't give to you. And it went back to what you heard dad say, I don't
1652 02:28:26 --> 02:28:30 want to see it come back and touch this inefficiencies low here, or the first
1653 02:28:30 --> 02:28:34 percent of your bank account again. I don't I don't want to see that. To do
1654 02:28:34 --> 02:28:39 that doesn't afford you enough time to trade in that first one hour trading. So
1655 02:28:39 --> 02:28:44 you have to stick to the rules, even if this does roll over. You have to have
1656 02:28:44 --> 02:28:47 rules on you have to have a basis to stick within and say, This is the
1657 02:28:47 --> 02:28:52 guidelines I'm staying inside of. If I stay inside these guidelines, i You've
1658 02:28:52 --> 02:28:56 already seen enough to know that we have rules to tell us when we can avoid very
1659 02:28:56 --> 02:29:02 difficult market conditions. And by having that, we are already ahead of
1660 02:29:02 --> 02:29:07 everybody else out there. We already are light years ahead of everybody else out
1661 02:29:07 --> 02:29:10 there. Everybody else is out there trying to push the button. You're going
1662 02:29:10 --> 02:29:17 to wait when it's easy, and you can see it with the rules I'm teaching, that
1663 02:29:17 --> 02:29:21 it's easy if it's complicated, if it fits any criteria that I've taught you
1664 02:29:21 --> 02:29:28 so far about seek and destroy market is in high resistance, liquidity, run
1665 02:29:28 --> 02:29:34 profile, and now we have decoupling today. So you can recognize you can
1666 02:29:34 --> 02:29:39 recognize the adversities, so that way, you have much more experience by
1667 02:29:39 --> 02:29:43 understanding these profiles and how the markets book in price, then if you just
1668 02:29:43 --> 02:29:47 would have spent 10 years of retail stuff, because retail won't teach you
1669 02:29:47 --> 02:29:50 this stuff. It ain't going to teach you this. No one's teaching this kind of
1670 02:29:50 --> 02:29:53 stuff. They're teaching you how to get into trades. I'm teaching you how to
1671 02:29:53 --> 02:29:58 avoid when trading in these conditions are less likely to pan out in your
1672 02:29:58 --> 02:30:04 favor. You. That's the key takeaway today. Okay, so everyone else listening?
1673 02:30:04 --> 02:30:07 I hope that you found something insightful in this. I hope you learned
1674 02:30:07 --> 02:30:14 something of value. We will be back at begin tomorrow. I believe that we will
1675 02:30:14 --> 02:30:23 be I'll probably be doing a seven o'clock start time tomorrow, and I think
1676 02:30:23 --> 02:30:30 that might be the rest of the week's schedule as well. They I promise this is
1677 02:30:30 --> 02:30:33 the only week that we're going to do it like that. But I want to teach pre
1678 02:30:33 --> 02:30:40 market more in depth. But today I'm satisfied with what I thought. I'm
1679 02:30:40 --> 02:30:44 satisfied with how the market has delivered, and I believe that if anyone
1680 02:30:44 --> 02:30:49 has a a serious mindset about learning there's huge value in what was shown
1681 02:30:49 --> 02:30:53 today. Because I could have used this and spared myself dozens of blown
1682 02:30:53 --> 02:30:57 accounts in the 90s. I would have literally kept myself out of the very
1683 02:30:57 --> 02:31:02 instances where I hurt myself and lost the entire account. It were. It was in
1684 02:31:02 --> 02:31:05 these days, I would look at the market, I would see that these things were
1685 02:31:05 --> 02:31:09 occurring, but I never saw it as valuable information or Intel. I just
1686 02:31:09 --> 02:31:14 look at as, okay, well, I'm in the right market. I'm in the the index or the
1687 02:31:14 --> 02:31:20 commodity or the currency future that I took a trade on. So I have to stick with
1688 02:31:20 --> 02:31:23 it. I know I know I have all these other things that's scaring me right now, but
1689 02:31:23 --> 02:31:26 I'm not, I'm not going to identify that as a reason to get out. Just be content
1690 02:31:26 --> 02:31:30 with whatever I have. I held on to it, and I arm wrestled the market, and it
1691 02:31:30 --> 02:31:34 took it from me. It took the profit I had unrealized, and it took the entire
1692 02:31:34 --> 02:31:39 account, because I wanted to arm wrestle it so you don't have to do those things.
1693 02:31:39 --> 02:31:42 Son, that's not going to be impressed if you go through the same kind of pain
1694 02:31:42 --> 02:31:45 that I went through. That's not That's not what this is about. It's for you to
1695 02:31:45 --> 02:31:50 do it better than me, to do it faster than it took me to do it because I
1696 02:31:50 --> 02:31:53 wrestled through all this stuff. You're getting blessed. I feel like the Lord's
1697 02:31:53 --> 02:31:57 laying these things out perfectly. So that way you get these lessons in the
1698 02:31:57 --> 02:32:01 beginning, and that way you can have this understanding right from Jump
1699 02:32:01 --> 02:32:05 Street, and have it in your mind, knowing that there are days when I don't
1700 02:32:05 --> 02:32:09 have to trade, and it could still move around with a rhyme and reason that I
1701 02:32:09 --> 02:32:12 can still see that doesn't mean I need to go there and risk real money, and
1702 02:32:12 --> 02:32:15 then when you don't have these types of conditions, because there really isn't
1703 02:32:15 --> 02:32:19 anything else now, there is no other reason to stay out of the marketplace.
1704 02:32:19 --> 02:32:23 We've already covered all three bases, high resistance liquidity profiles.
1705 02:32:24 --> 02:32:27 They're tradable, but you have to handle them differently, with a wider stop and
1706 02:32:27 --> 02:32:33 hold on to that stop near your entry, seek and destroy. You can't trade it and
1707 02:32:33 --> 02:32:37 then decoupled markets, you can trade them, but you're probably not going to
1708 02:32:37 --> 02:32:41 get your your targets. You're going to have similar things like a high
1709 02:32:41 --> 02:32:45 resistance liquidity run profile, where it's a lot of give and take, but it
1710 02:32:45 --> 02:32:49 eventually get to where you want to go. But are you going to be good enough to
1711 02:32:49 --> 02:32:57 pick the NASDAQ over the ES, I don't think you will. So to keep that from
1712 02:32:57 --> 02:33:04 ever being an issue, I told you to stay with just the NASDAQ. So I'm filtering
1713 02:33:04 --> 02:33:07 all of these scenarios because I've taught lots of people all around the
1714 02:33:07 --> 02:33:13 world, and for 25 years I've been teaching, I have picked up on how they
1715 02:33:13 --> 02:33:18 make the same mistakes. So by forcing you to just use one instrument, it
1716 02:33:18 --> 02:33:24 removes the tendency, or the opportunity for you to be tricked by feeling like
1717 02:33:24 --> 02:33:27 you you pick the right one, so therefore, stay with your trade. No, you
1718 02:33:27 --> 02:33:30 have to. You have to look at all three averages. And if they don't agree,
1719 02:33:30 --> 02:33:33 they're not moving the same way. They're decoupled. If they're decoupled, you're
1720 02:33:33 --> 02:33:37 not going to get a perfect price run like you would want in a low resistance
1721 02:33:37 --> 02:33:42 liquidity run profile. We don't have that here, but because you've seen all
1722 02:33:42 --> 02:33:46 three of the things that cause difficult trading, not impossible trading,
1723 02:33:46 --> 02:33:49 difficult trading, anything that doesn't fit the criteria you've seen in those
1724 02:33:49 --> 02:33:57 three different profiles is easy, easy, easy trading. They run right to your
1725 02:33:57 --> 02:34:00 targets. Your entries are perfect and pristine. Your stops are easy to place
1726 02:34:00 --> 02:34:04 in low risk, and it's just pleasant to trade in those environments. And if I
1727 02:34:04 --> 02:34:08 can teach you to focus on that and anyone else that's listening, if you
1728 02:34:08 --> 02:34:11 learn to identify those conditions when it's low resistance, liquidity, run
1729 02:34:11 --> 02:34:15 profiles, your trading will be enjoyable. You will not be stressful.
1730 02:34:15 --> 02:34:20 It'll seem like it's effortless. And while there's still inherent risks with
1731 02:34:20 --> 02:34:23 that, and you'll still get stopped out once in a while, you're going to find
1732 02:34:23 --> 02:34:26 that the market quickly wants to go to where you think it's going to go and
1733 02:34:26 --> 02:34:34 where your targets are resting. That's fun. That is what encourages continuous
1734 02:34:34 --> 02:34:37 adherence to good sound, money management and logic behind the stage
1735 02:34:37 --> 02:34:41 setups. So with that, wish you all very good, pleasant day, and I will touch
1736 02:34:41 --> 02:34:45 base with you, I'm sure, with some kind of a review video, video. And until
1737 02:34:45 --> 02:34:48 then, Lord Glen, I'll see you tomorrow. Be safe. You.