Wiki source code of ICT YT - 2024-09-27 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 35
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2 | |1 |00:01:19 ~-~-> 00:01:25 |ICT: Good morning folks, Good morning. This is going to be doing an audio check | ||
3 | |2 |00:01:25 ~-~-> 00:01:28 |here in a minute, trying to see If I can hear myself. | ||
4 | |3 |00:01:38 ~-~-> 00:01:39 |Audio check one i | ||
5 | |4 |00:02:01 ~-~-> 00:02:09 |i I'll go check two. Okay, yeah, we go. I can hear me. I can hear the woman, all | ||
6 | |5 |00:02:09 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |right, so premium cap opening up here on the fifth minute time frame, you can see | ||
7 | |6 |00:02:22 ~-~-> 00:02:30 |we we bumped this high. You see that here, and on a one minute chart | ||
8 | |7 |00:02:42 ~-~-> 00:02:45 |I was telling my son, who is Good morning, Caleb. How are you? I'm doing | ||
9 | |8 |00:02:45 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |great. Alright, that's pretty good venture. What's a map in it? Comment | ||
10 | |9 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:02:59 |saying that there is no Caleb. There is no Caleb. Alright, so South side's been | ||
11 | |10 |00:02:59 ~-~-> 00:03:03 |taken here. We want to see, does it have an interest to be rude further, or if it | ||
12 | |11 |00:03:03 ~-~-> 00:03:12 |wants to bang around inside this range? Admittedly, I'm a little prepared. Let's | ||
13 | |12 |00:03:12 ~-~-> 00:03:18 |say this way, I'm prepared for it to be a rather lackluster morning session. And | ||
14 | |13 |00:03:18 ~-~-> 00:03:22 |I'll go into detail as to why I believe that once we get a little bit further | ||
15 | |14 |00:03:22 ~-~-> 00:03:24 |into the opening range, right now it's 931 | ||
16 | |15 |00:03:30 ~-~-> 00:03:39 |930s city here, we're not factoring that. Caleb's got to use the first fair | ||
17 | |16 |00:03:39 ~-~-> 00:03:46 |value gap that could only form as early as 931 so while, yes, we are aware that | ||
18 | |17 |00:03:46 ~-~-> 00:03:58 |that's there, I'm teaching him to use the one that forms at 931 or later, for | ||
19 | |18 |00:03:58 ~-~-> 00:04:05 |The folks that are comfortable with using the 15 second time frame. You may | ||
20 | |19 |00:04:05 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |need that there's a gap here that's still inside the 930 minute. See, it's | ||
21 | |20 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:16 |good to noted, but it's not what we're using today. Okay, okay. | ||
22 | |21 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:27 |Right now. The left chart Caleb is one minute, but it's showing electronic | ||
23 | |22 |00:04:27 ~-~-> 00:04:34 |trading hours, so that that time begins at 6pm Eastern Time, and it trades until | ||
24 | |23 |00:04:34 ~-~-> 00:04:38 |5pm close today, which closes the week, but also closes the session for one | ||
25 | |24 |00:04:38 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |hour, if it was, if we traded on Saturday, which we don't it would reopen | ||
26 | |25 |00:04:43 ~-~-> 00:04:48 |at six o'clock, but in this case, it's Friday. Electronic trading hours will | ||
27 | |26 |00:04:48 ~-~-> 00:04:53 |close at 5pm today, and then won't open again until Sunday, 6pm Eastern time. | ||
28 | |27 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |But the regular trading hours here, we're. I | ||
29 | |28 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |was showing before the stream started, and they're all familiar with this, the | ||
30 | |29 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:19 |414 from yesterday to the first opening price here, there's 77 chance that the | ||
31 | |30 |00:05:19 ~-~-> 00:05:21 |market will come back down and trade half gap. So that's consequence | ||
32 | |31 |00:05:21 ~-~-> 00:05:26 |encroachment of the difference between yesterday's 414 settlement price, which | ||
33 | |32 |00:05:26 ~-~-> 00:05:29 |is regular trading hours. And you always have to make sure you're looking at the | ||
34 | |33 |00:05:29 ~-~-> 00:05:33 |right one in the morning at the opening bell, if there's a gap, you'll see it'll | ||
35 | |34 |00:05:33 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |look totally different in terms of the chart on electronic trading hours. But | ||
36 | |35 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:45 |the settlement price here the close to the opening price at 930 that's the | ||
37 | |36 |00:05:45 ~-~-> 00:05:53 |opening range gap. Opening range is time between 9:30am to 10 o'clock AM. So that | ||
38 | |37 |00:05:53 ~-~-> 00:05:59 |30 minute interval, the algorithms use that as a kind of like a a preliminary | ||
39 | |38 |00:05:59 ~-~-> 00:06:05 |range to establish number one, the first imbalance, initial highs and initial | ||
40 | |39 |00:06:05 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |lows. And then you use that information to build a narrative on how the daily | ||
41 | |40 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:15 |range will build, whether it be a bullish day or a bearish day. We're not | ||
42 | |41 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |trying to predict the closing price. I will be teaching you that. But it's not | ||
43 | |42 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:22 |here today. It's not we're not in that yet. You have other things to worry | ||
44 | |43 |00:06:22 ~-~-> 00:06:30 |about first, right? So we have that, and now I'm going to add to quadrant levels | ||
45 | |44 |00:06:30 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |as well. And you simply just do this. So now you have the opening range gap | ||
46 | |45 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:43 |levels. We can go back to electronic training hours. So now we have our | ||
47 | |46 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |kilos. Sell side's been taken. So there is buy side resting up here. | ||
48 | |47 |00:07:02 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |Let's and | ||
49 | |48 |00:07:12 ~-~-> 00:07:21 |we have minor cell side now at the load it's formed. So far on the one minute | ||
50 | |49 |00:07:21 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |chart, we have no inefficient except for the 930 candle. Still useful, but for | ||
51 | |50 |00:07:30 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |your model, you have to use the next one after that, 931 931 starts you're | ||
52 | |51 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:41 |seeking of a fair value gap. You might think, Well, Dad, why don't I just use | ||
53 | |52 |00:07:41 ~-~-> 00:07:45 |this one, right? Because it's there, well, because you're referring to the | ||
54 | |53 |00:07:45 ~-~-> 00:07:49 |open range gap, and because there's a lot of volatility that can come into the | ||
55 | |54 |00:07:49 ~-~-> 00:07:54 |marketplace because of a gap, or because the gap may not be that significant. It | ||
56 | |55 |00:07:54 ~-~-> 00:08:02 |may be a small gap. In this case, we've had a little bit of a it's not a big | ||
57 | |56 |00:08:02 ~-~-> 00:08:08 |gig. It's not a big gap. I would have rather had a larger gap between its low | ||
58 | |57 |00:08:08 ~-~-> 00:08:13 |and its highs. In other words, yesterday's 415 or 414 settlement price | ||
59 | |58 |00:08:13 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |on a one minute chart versus the 9/31 printed price. Today, we want something, | ||
60 | |59 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:23 |ideally, more than 40 handles. I personally like something that's closer | ||
61 | |60 |00:08:23 ~-~-> 00:08:31 |to 75 I know that the range is going to be very I mean, this is your this is | ||
62 | |61 |00:08:31 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |your Fairbank out right there. Okay, so that's the one you would put out into | ||
63 | |62 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |the future with extending it into the right, and we'll just keep it gray for | ||
64 | |63 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |now. | ||
65 | |64 |00:08:58 ~-~-> 00:09:04 |So today's Friday, and since we've had basically an up session every day this | ||
66 | |65 |00:09:04 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |week, ttif is a factor, where I see these relative eco lows, that's your | ||
67 | |66 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:13 |draw for sell side you | ||
68 | |67 |00:09:39 ~-~-> 00:09:43 |Okay, now just be mindful, because I'm going to scroll the chart over so you're | ||
69 | |68 |00:09:43 ~-~-> 00:09:48 |not going to see this. Just focus on the price action over here, but this right | ||
70 | |69 |00:09:48 ~-~-> 00:09:54 |here, is what we're looking at. You understand? Yes, so because it's Friday, | ||
71 | |70 |00:09:55 ~-~-> 00:10:04 |because we had a premium gap opening, because we have left. That gap to the | ||
72 | |71 |00:10:04 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |downside and traded below it. It could be viewed as kind of like a an | ||
73 | |72 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:17 |exhaustion gap, meaning that we gapped up there at the open of the session | ||
74 | |73 |00:10:17 ~-~-> 00:10:24 |today, and then it it trades down, fills the gap, tries to rally, and then folds | ||
75 | |74 |00:10:24 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |and goes lower. So we can now use the low of the gap as a means of treating | ||
76 | |75 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:35 |like a fair value gap. In other words, if it trades back up into it, and it | ||
77 | |76 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:41 |struggles to get into it in any degree, if it starts to roll over and trade | ||
78 | |77 |00:10:41 ~-~-> 00:10:49 |lower. Then we can use a subsequent fair value gap, a very small short term swing | ||
79 | |78 |00:10:49 ~-~-> 00:10:53 |high to be rated for, like a turtle suit, where it just goes and gets a | ||
80 | |79 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |short term liquidity and then bang and drops lower. TGIF, because we've had a | ||
81 | |80 |00:10:58 ~-~-> 00:11:06 |up week all this week, 20% to 30% of the weekly range is usually what I like to | ||
82 | |81 |00:11:06 ~-~-> 00:11:11 |see. It doesn't need to do it. If it doesn't do it today, then usually on | ||
83 | |82 |00:11:11 ~-~-> 00:11:16 |Monday, you'll have some kind of a retracement into that previous week's | ||
84 | |83 |00:11:16 ~-~-> 00:11:21 |range to amount of 20 to 30% Alright, so we're inside that fair value gap here, | ||
85 | |84 |00:11:22 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |and scroll down to the setup running back into this gap here. You're going to | ||
86 | |85 |00:11:27 ~-~-> 00:11:33 |study how it behaves here, from this fair value gap down to the liquidity | ||
87 | |86 |00:11:33 ~-~-> 00:11:36 |that's been noted with these relatively cool lows right there. I'm | ||
88 | |87 |00:11:50 ~-~-> 00:11:54 |the settlement price here, I'm gonna just put a box on it, because I want you | ||
89 | |88 |00:11:54 ~-~-> 00:12:06 |to see the color difference in terms of, like, a range. And we'll do this. So | ||
90 | |89 |00:12:06 ~-~-> 00:12:12 |what I did is I noted yesterday's 414, selling price up to today's opening | ||
91 | |90 |00:12:12 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |price at 930 so when you're using record trading hours, it's not going to plot | ||
92 | |91 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |any of the price fluctuation between those two times. But when you go to | ||
93 | |92 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:25 |electronic trading hours, you're going to see that there's been a lot of | ||
94 | |93 |00:12:25 ~-~-> 00:12:30 |trading since there's, you know, it's been doing a whole lot more, right? So, | ||
95 | |94 |00:12:30 ~-~-> 00:12:38 |because now we can see we we gapped open higher with this price on this | ||
96 | |95 |00:12:38 ~-~-> 00:12:42 |candlestick here, and the low of that shaded pink area, that's the actual gap | ||
97 | |96 |00:12:42 ~-~-> 00:12:49 |between yesterday's 940 I'm sorry, 4:14pm Eastern Time, settlement price to | ||
98 | |97 |00:12:49 ~-~-> 00:12:57 |930s opening price today. So that gap we we opened here, which is a premium, it's | ||
99 | |98 |00:12:57 ~-~-> 00:13:01 |sold off, came back up and then left the gap. You see that? And then right here | ||
100 | |99 |00:13:01 ~-~-> 00:13:05 |we hit it at the low of that pink shaded area. But it's also consequent | ||
101 | |100 |00:13:05 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |encroachment of that first fair value gap of the day. See that? See what this | ||
102 | |101 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:22 |camel stick right there, hitting it? Yes. Okay, so we would want to see, does | ||
103 | |102 |00:13:22 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |it have the ability to want to or an interest to reprice down to the sell | ||
104 | |103 |00:13:26 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |side from there? Because the the underlying dynamics are, it's Friday, | ||
105 | |104 |00:13:33 ~-~-> 00:13:36 |it's been going up all week long. It's healthy for to go down there. Even if it | ||
106 | |105 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:40 |wants to go higher, you can go down there and pick up this stops where they | ||
107 | |106 |00:13:40 ~-~-> 00:13:46 |can buy from someone that wants to sell to them at a cheap discount price. So | ||
108 | |107 |00:13:46 ~-~-> 00:13:49 |if, if they can see that there's relative equal lows down there, retail | ||
109 | |108 |00:13:49 ~-~-> 00:13:54 |traders would see that as support. And we like to look for areas where we can | ||
110 | |109 |00:13:54 ~-~-> 00:14:01 |scoop up sell stops or short buy stops. And if you start blending these things | ||
111 | |110 |00:14:01 ~-~-> 00:14:06 |together, you can kind of like flesh out a narrative where not just one thing is | ||
112 | |111 |00:14:06 ~-~-> 00:14:09 |leaning on the basis of why you're taking a trade or why you expect the | ||
113 | |112 |00:14:09 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |price to move a specific way. There has to be at least three factors there. And | ||
114 | |113 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:17 |one of the main things is time. There has to be a reason for it to move based | ||
115 | |114 |00:14:17 ~-~-> 00:14:24 |on time. And if you trade outside of the trade setups that are not factoring | ||
116 | |115 |00:14:24 ~-~-> 00:14:31 |heavily on the element of time, you can still get setups, but you're not going | ||
117 | |116 |00:14:31 ~-~-> 00:14:36 |to get that institutional sponsorship that comes with the moves that usually | ||
118 | |117 |00:14:36 ~-~-> 00:14:42 |are delivered by a time based mechanism, like the first 10 minutes before you get | ||
119 | |118 |00:14:42 ~-~-> 00:14:47 |to the top of the hour. So 950, to 10 o'clock, that that 10 minute interval. | ||
120 | |119 |00:14:47 ~-~-> 00:14:51 |And from 10 o'clock to 1010, that interval is 20 minutes an interval. So | ||
121 | |120 |00:14:51 ~-~-> 00:14:58 |that's a macro so usually the algorithms will start firing off and it's spooling | ||
122 | |121 |00:14:58 ~-~-> 00:15:05 |price to run to in. Inefficiency above or below the marketplace, or it's | ||
123 | |122 |00:15:05 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |running to liquidity above an old high or relative equal highs, or below an | ||
124 | |123 |00:15:08 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |over low or relative equal lows. So if you have these these expectations on | ||
125 | |124 |00:15:13 ~-~-> 00:15:20 |what price may do around that specific time, even if you don't have a bias, you | ||
126 | |125 |00:15:20 ~-~-> 00:15:25 |can go in and watch the first few minutes of the day, and then not all the | ||
127 | |126 |00:15:25 ~-~-> 00:15:29 |time, and this is a skill set you'll develop as you do more of it, watching | ||
128 | |127 |00:15:29 ~-~-> 00:15:35 |price and study, but you'll discover that you're learning how to discover the | ||
129 | |128 |00:15:35 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |narrative for the morning session. You're not trying to predict daily | ||
130 | |129 |00:15:39 ~-~-> 00:15:42 |candlestick right now, but you're just trying to get a feel for what is the | ||
131 | |130 |00:15:42 ~-~-> 00:15:50 |most likely probable outcome, based on where we opened up at 930 relative to | ||
132 | |131 |00:15:50 ~-~-> 00:15:56 |where we closed at 414, yesterday, PM, regular session hours. Where's the | ||
133 | |132 |00:15:56 ~-~-> 00:16:00 |liquidity? Why should it be why should it be interested to go higher, or why | ||
134 | |133 |00:16:00 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |should it be interest to go lower? What liquidity is there? Is it relative equal | ||
135 | |134 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:08 |highs? There is there relative equal lows? There is there a large | ||
136 | |135 |00:16:08 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |inefficiency above the market price, or is there a large inefficiency below the | ||
137 | |136 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:20 |market price? So these are all questions that I ask myself. There's very specific | ||
138 | |137 |00:16:20 ~-~-> 00:16:25 |things, and the times when you're watching price, where it is so heavily | ||
139 | |138 |00:16:25 ~-~-> 00:16:30 |handed on one side of the marketplace, where it's hard to argue the position | ||
140 | |139 |00:16:30 ~-~-> 00:16:35 |from a buyer's perspective or a short seller's perspective, if you can justify | ||
141 | |140 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:38 |the trade or the idea what you think the market's going to do at the given time | ||
142 | |141 |00:16:38 ~-~-> 00:16:42 |you're looking at the price, if you can justify on both sides of the spectrum | ||
143 | |142 |00:16:42 ~-~-> 00:16:47 |being a buyer or seller, that's not high probability. Would you agree? Yeah, I | ||
144 | |143 |00:16:47 ~-~-> 00:16:52 |would agree. So would it not be advantageous for you to focus on days | ||
145 | |144 |00:16:52 ~-~-> 00:17:01 |and times when the market is presenting suggestions that the market would want | ||
146 | |145 |00:17:01 ~-~-> 00:17:07 |to go lower, because less informed traders that use concepts like support | ||
147 | |146 |00:17:07 ~-~-> 00:17:12 |and resistance if they see a level that's too smooth, above or below, it's | ||
148 | |147 |00:17:12 ~-~-> 00:17:17 |natural to expect the orders below or above those odds, right? Or below those | ||
149 | |148 |00:17:17 ~-~-> 00:17:23 |lows? Yes. So if we know that that's the case. We don't need a book math. We | ||
150 | |149 |00:17:23 ~-~-> 00:17:27 |don't need any kind of application to kind of draw some special attention to | ||
151 | |150 |00:17:27 ~-~-> 00:17:31 |it. We can clearly see and read the chart like anybody else would. But you | ||
152 | |151 |00:17:31 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |have to put yourself in a position that a retail trader doesn't have. Most | ||
153 | |152 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:40 |times, they don't have the perception of order flow. They don't look at things | ||
154 | |153 |00:17:40 ~-~-> 00:17:49 |that are beyond the scope of support or resistance. Diagonal support, diagonal | ||
155 | |154 |00:17:49 ~-~-> 00:17:55 |resistance, with with trend lines or some kind of pattern. And these classic | ||
156 | |155 |00:17:55 ~-~-> 00:17:59 |chart patterns, while we can historically go back and see how they | ||
157 | |156 |00:17:59 ~-~-> 00:18:05 |may have worked visually in certain instances, but that's not what causes | ||
158 | |157 |00:18:05 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |price to do that. So if we can look for times when the retail trader is arm | ||
159 | |158 |00:18:10 ~-~-> 00:18:20 |wrestling something, it's a little bit more, I guess, more real, like orders in | ||
160 | |159 |00:18:20 ~-~-> 00:18:25 |the marketplace, why the market should trade so to a level, why? Like, there's | ||
161 | |160 |00:18:25 ~-~-> 00:18:29 |nothing inherently bullish about a pennant pattern or a bull flag pattern, | ||
162 | |161 |00:18:29 ~-~-> 00:18:33 |just because you see it rally up a little bit and it starts to consolidate, | ||
163 | |162 |00:18:33 ~-~-> 00:18:38 |retail traders would see that as a bull flag. So it's getting go higher. But if | ||
164 | |163 |00:18:38 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |the market's not predisposed, they want to go higher, because there's a resting | ||
165 | |164 |00:18:43 ~-~-> 00:18:46 |pool of liquidity up there, and it's already done the damage. Below that bull | ||
166 | |165 |00:18:46 ~-~-> 00:18:53 |flag, meaning that it's made the market jagged, if, if it's smooth, above that | ||
167 | |166 |00:18:53 ~-~-> 00:18:57 |bull flag in price action, somewhere in close proximity, chances are that bull | ||
168 | |167 |00:18:57 ~-~-> 00:19:01 |flag would probably deliver on the basis of what a retail trader would expect, | ||
169 | |168 |00:19:01 ~-~-> 00:19:05 |because then they're finding themselves trading a pattern within the underlying | ||
170 | |169 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:10 |order flow that price is going to submit to because it's running for the | ||
171 | |170 |00:19:10 ~-~-> 00:19:13 |liquidity. It's not running because it sees a bull flag. It's not going to go | ||
172 | |171 |00:19:13 ~-~-> 00:19:17 |up because there's a bull flag there, and vice versa. If there's something | ||
173 | |172 |00:19:17 ~-~-> 00:19:21 |that's indicating that the market's likely to go lower just because there | ||
174 | |173 |00:19:21 ~-~-> 00:19:24 |might be a bear flag or a pennant pattern or wedge pattern or a descending | ||
175 | |174 |00:19:24 ~-~-> 00:19:31 |triangle, these are all classic perceived price patterns, and because | ||
176 | |175 |00:19:31 ~-~-> 00:19:38 |that idea is prevalent in trading where and that started the same way reading | ||
177 | |176 |00:19:38 ~-~-> 00:19:43 |these books, you think, wow, you know, it demystifies all of these Open, High, | ||
178 | |177 |00:19:43 ~-~-> 00:19:49 |lows and close bars, which is what I was using when I first started. It gives you | ||
179 | |178 |00:19:49 ~-~-> 00:19:52 |a rhyme or reason as to why you should do the very thing that I'm teaching my | ||
180 | |179 |00:19:52 ~-~-> 00:19:57 |students to do the the slowest movement towards which is executing and pushing | ||
181 | |180 |00:19:57 ~-~-> 00:20:03 |the button and retail. Is given lots of excuses to go in there and take trades. | ||
182 | |181 |00:20:03 ~-~-> 00:20:07 |Just take trades, because look at all these things. These are reasons to get | ||
183 | |182 |00:20:07 ~-~-> 00:20:12 |into a trade versus let's take a step back and think to ourselves, why would | ||
184 | |183 |00:20:12 ~-~-> 00:20:18 |it what would be the underlying catalyst for that price pattern, to to see it | ||
185 | |184 |00:20:18 ~-~-> 00:20:22 |unfold like that, just because you think you see it like a like a Rorschach, a | ||
186 | |185 |00:20:22 ~-~-> 00:20:27 |Rorschach pattern. If you go to see a psychologist, they'll take a piece of | ||
187 | |186 |00:20:27 ~-~-> 00:20:31 |paper, and they'll drop a drop of ink on it, and then they'll fold the paper in | ||
188 | |187 |00:20:31 ~-~-> 00:20:35 |half, move it around a little bit, and then open it up, let it dry, and then | ||
189 | |188 |00:20:35 ~-~-> 00:20:38 |they'll it'll, it'll be shown to a patient, and they'll say, what do you | ||
190 | |189 |00:20:38 ~-~-> 00:20:44 |see? And whatever they want to manifest, whatever they're seeking internally, or | ||
191 | |190 |00:20:44 ~-~-> 00:20:49 |whether they're fearful of they'll see that in that that Rorschach. It's a it's | ||
192 | |191 |00:20:49 ~-~-> 00:20:54 |an ink blot. It's nothing to it, but it allows the psychologist or the the | ||
193 | |192 |00:20:54 ~-~-> 00:20:57 |person that's doing an evaluation on them to get a baseline of how they | ||
194 | |193 |00:20:57 ~-~-> 00:21:01 |internalize things. And whatever you internalize, you're going to you're | ||
195 | |194 |00:21:01 ~-~-> 00:21:04 |going to materialize that in your decision making, in trading. So if you | ||
196 | |195 |00:21:04 ~-~-> 00:21:11 |are a person that is constantly looking for something that is based on, like, | ||
197 | |196 |00:21:11 ~-~-> 00:21:15 |gambler, like, they're going to look for, they're going to have a list of of | ||
198 | |197 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:19 |things to get them into a trade. They're going to have a lot of things. They're | ||
199 | |198 |00:21:19 ~-~-> 00:21:22 |going to be looking for every classic bullish pattern because they think I'm | ||
200 | |199 |00:21:22 ~-~-> 00:21:25 |already going up, because they've been some kind of Reddit channel, or they've | ||
201 | |200 |00:21:25 ~-~-> 00:21:28 |been in a telegram channel, or they watch my video, and they probably heard | ||
202 | |201 |00:21:28 ~-~-> 00:21:31 |something that they think that I'm trying to give some some little message | ||
203 | |202 |00:21:31 ~-~-> 00:21:35 |that, hey, look this time, devise time to sell. And they just now, okay, now | ||
204 | |203 |00:21:35 ~-~-> 00:21:38 |they're keyed up. They're ready to be looking for that thing that gets them | ||
205 | |204 |00:21:38 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |into something. And I fell victim to that a lot as a 20 year old like I, I | ||
206 | |205 |00:21:44 ~-~-> 00:21:48 |unfortunately weaponized myself with all these poor excuses to get into a trade. | ||
207 | |206 |00:21:48 ~-~-> 00:21:51 |And it has to be more to it, and | ||
208 | |207 |00:21:55 ~-~-> 00:22:01 |we're inside half the gap. So if, if we're bearish on this is what you want | ||
209 | |208 |00:22:01 ~-~-> 00:22:05 |to be looking at. Even though we went through the Fairbank gap, it's fine. I | ||
210 | |209 |00:22:05 ~-~-> 00:22:08 |mentioned earlier. I said, you know, I think we're going to have a lackluster | ||
211 | |210 |00:22:08 ~-~-> 00:22:12 |morning when we first started the session. But because we went back into | ||
212 | |211 |00:22:12 ~-~-> 00:22:15 |that opening range gap, which is that shaded area, it's pink, we want to see | ||
213 | |212 |00:22:15 ~-~-> 00:22:19 |it stay out of that upper portion. So this red level here, to this high up | ||
214 | |213 |00:22:19 ~-~-> 00:22:23 |here, we don't want to see any of that. It can touch the consequent encroachment | ||
215 | |214 |00:22:23 ~-~-> 00:22:28 |that wick or another wick can trade up there. But we don't want any bodies up | ||
216 | |215 |00:22:28 ~-~-> 00:22:38 |there. So we want this is like a no like a no go zone, all this area right here, | ||
217 | |216 |00:22:38 ~-~-> 00:22:47 |and we want to see that portion left alone. We don't want to see nothing up | ||
218 | |217 |00:22:47 ~-~-> 00:22:53 |there if it's bearish. So how do you use this information? Well, if it starts to | ||
219 | |218 |00:22:53 ~-~-> 00:22:57 |displace lower and leaves and gets below this fair value gap, I know | ||
220 | |219 |00:23:02 ~-~-> 00:23:08 |these are not good choices of color, but the as long as it stays outside of this | ||
221 | |220 |00:23:08 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |area here, it can wick into it. We just don't want to start seeing bodies laying | ||
222 | |221 |00:23:12 ~-~-> 00:23:16 |down in this area, because then it makes it even more likely that the market's | ||
223 | |222 |00:23:16 ~-~-> 00:23:22 |going to be indecisive. So by having these parameters. It says it's you're | ||
224 | |223 |00:23:22 ~-~-> 00:23:25 |willing to let it trade up here and still hold the idea that it could | ||
225 | |224 |00:23:25 ~-~-> 00:23:28 |potentially visit down here for the sell side, because it's TGIF Friday. Thank | ||
226 | |225 |00:23:28 ~-~-> 00:23:32 |God it's Friday. That's what it means. And it means simply looking for a 20 to | ||
227 | |226 |00:23:32 ~-~-> 00:23:35 |30% retracement on the weekly range. So the highest high of the week to the | ||
228 | |227 |00:23:35 ~-~-> 00:23:40 |lowest low of the week. You drop a fib on that. And what the 20% level is, | ||
229 | |228 |00:23:40 ~-~-> 00:23:44 |that's what my objective is. Is that, see, do we have a reason to frame | ||
230 | |229 |00:23:44 ~-~-> 00:23:48 |something technically to get to that level? And I'll show you what that is in | ||
231 | |230 |00:23:48 ~-~-> 00:23:51 |a minute, but I just want to give you the foundations of what we're looking | ||
232 | |231 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:24:02 |for. So in this gap here, right now, this is the framework that would be | ||
233 | |232 |00:24:02 ~-~-> 00:24:10 |expected based on the fact that we didn't trade the upper half of that | ||
234 | |233 |00:24:10 ~-~-> 00:24:15 |opening range gap. So because we haven't even touched the consequent | ||
235 | |234 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:19 |encroachment, if we leave like we've done here, we leave that, come back up, | ||
236 | |235 |00:24:19 ~-~-> 00:24:23 |you can touch that first fair value gap again, and it can be treated as an | ||
237 | |236 |00:24:23 ~-~-> 00:24:30 |inversion. I'm sorry I did it again. This is why dad does not have the stuff | ||
238 | |237 |00:24:30 ~-~-> 00:24:33 |on the charts when I'm trading. But because I'm describing it as I'm | ||
239 | |238 |00:24:33 ~-~-> 00:24:38 |watching it, I made the mistake the other day, and I called a reclaimed, | ||
240 | |239 |00:24:39 ~-~-> 00:24:43 |bullish fair value gap inversion fair Vega. And once I started talking about | ||
241 | |240 |00:24:43 ~-~-> 00:24:47 |it, because I was live, I just kept going on with it, and I didn't realize | ||
242 | |241 |00:24:47 ~-~-> 00:24:51 |until I went back in answering someone else's question, they didn't notice it. | ||
243 | |242 |00:24:51 ~-~-> 00:24:56 |But when I saw I was like, Oh no, I did that wrong. So this weekend, on your | ||
244 | |243 |00:24:56 ~-~-> 00:24:59 |channel, I'm going to make a small little presentation about that. But I. | ||
245 | |244 |00:25:01 ~-~-> 00:25:05 |Because we had this down closed candle, and the market was going back up into | ||
246 | |245 |00:25:05 ~-~-> 00:25:10 |it. That is a potential bearish, fair value gap, and we went above it here. | ||
247 | |246 |00:25:11 ~-~-> 00:25:15 |But if we leave it See, I don't want to see it do that, while we did have the | ||
248 | |247 |00:25:15 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |wick outside of it, the fact that we kept the body inside of it, that's | ||
249 | |248 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:22 |exactly what I'm talking about. This is the very things I was mentioning when we | ||
250 | |249 |00:25:22 ~-~-> 00:25:27 |first started the stream, that I have very low expectations, but I have to, | ||
251 | |250 |00:25:27 ~-~-> 00:25:30 |because they're all listening, and you're learning too. My personal | ||
252 | |251 |00:25:30 ~-~-> 00:25:34 |expectation is and the only thing that I would want to frame on a trade setup | ||
253 | |252 |00:25:34 ~-~-> 00:25:38 |this morning would be a run into this area, even if it's bullish, even want to | ||
254 | |253 |00:25:38 ~-~-> 00:25:42 |go higher on the day and keep going higher for the next couple weeks. It | ||
255 | |254 |00:25:42 ~-~-> 00:25:45 |doesn't matter that this is still something that's reasonable to trade | ||
256 | |255 |00:25:45 ~-~-> 00:25:49 |down into, and it's actually beneficial for it to go down there if it's going to | ||
257 | |256 |00:25:49 ~-~-> 00:25:54 |go longer term, because it's going down here to pick up more orders that smart | ||
258 | |257 |00:25:54 ~-~-> 00:25:58 |money could buy at a really deep discount relative to where we opened up | ||
259 | |258 |00:25:58 ~-~-> 00:26:04 |today, because we opened up here at this price, and as long we stay in the lower | ||
260 | |259 |00:26:04 ~-~-> 00:26:08 |half down here, that's fine, that this narrative is still potentially there. | ||
261 | |260 |00:26:08 ~-~-> 00:26:12 |But just because it's still potentially there doesn't mean that's or inside the | ||
262 | |261 |00:26:12 ~-~-> 00:26:15 |fair value gap. The first fairway got, why aren't you going short, like you're | ||
263 | |262 |00:26:15 ~-~-> 00:26:18 |fighting Okay, Dad, you're in the fairway got, why aren't you chicken | ||
264 | |263 |00:26:18 ~-~-> 00:26:22 |short? Why aren't you selling it there? Because I want to see it displaced below | ||
265 | |264 |00:26:22 ~-~-> 00:26:28 |it, leave a body closed away from it. And that imbalance I want to see, does | ||
266 | |265 |00:26:28 ~-~-> 00:26:33 |it go back up into it and touch it again, like trade up in the bottom of | ||
267 | |266 |00:26:33 ~-~-> 00:26:37 |it, and then I would expect it to trade lower. Or, if you want to be very, very | ||
268 | |267 |00:26:37 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |conservative, you can wait for it to do like it's doing here. It needs to close | ||
269 | |268 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:47 |away from the below of that, that Fairey got me darkened up because there you go. | ||
270 | |269 |00:26:47 ~-~-> 00:26:51 |So I know these chart colors are not making everybody happy right now, but I | ||
271 | |270 |00:26:51 ~-~-> 00:26:55 |don't give a I have to be able to talk about it while I'm doing so now we have | ||
272 | |271 |00:26:55 ~-~-> 00:26:59 |a smaller imbalance right there. I would like to see this candlestick not come | ||
273 | |272 |00:26:59 ~-~-> 00:27:04 |back up to it yet, not yet. I want to see it close, leave that open, and then | ||
274 | |273 |00:27:04 ~-~-> 00:27:08 |if it starts to drop away from that, that means this could be a breakaway | ||
275 | |274 |00:27:08 ~-~-> 00:27:11 |gap. You'll see, that's okay. I don't like that, but now we need to see it | ||
276 | |275 |00:27:11 ~-~-> 00:27:16 |displaced from there once, if it does it, you turn your attention over to the | ||
277 | |276 |00:27:16 ~-~-> 00:27:20 |15 second chart, and then the very first fair value gap that farms over here, | ||
278 | |277 |00:27:20 ~-~-> 00:27:23 |once it trades back up into it, that could be a catalyst for you to get into | ||
279 | |278 |00:27:23 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |a move, to write it down into the sell side. Here. Do you see what this did I | ||
280 | |279 |00:27:29 ~-~-> 00:27:35 |work from one time frame, building what, what my expectation would be based on | ||
281 | |280 |00:27:36 ~-~-> 00:27:41 |very specific parameters. It's, what do you wait for? ICT, what are you waiting | ||
282 | |281 |00:27:41 ~-~-> 00:27:44 |for? What are you looking for? What is it that you're expecting to see? And how | ||
283 | |282 |00:27:44 ~-~-> 00:27:48 |can I find that setups that are going to be a little bit more favorable versus | ||
284 | |283 |00:27:48 ~-~-> 00:27:52 |just picking the first fair value gap? Because now everybody thinks they have a | ||
285 | |284 |00:27:52 ~-~-> 00:27:56 |secret weapon, because I taught them to find the first fair value gap in their | ||
286 | |285 |00:27:56 ~-~-> 00:27:59 |opening range. So while it's great and they can see it in hindsight, they're | ||
287 | |286 |00:27:59 ~-~-> 00:28:03 |still probably scared shitless about how to get, how to get into it. And then you | ||
288 | |287 |00:28:03 ~-~-> 00:28:06 |have the goobers that will say, Well, look, it runs through it. Yeah, it's | ||
289 | |288 |00:28:07 ~-~-> 00:28:11 |going to do that, but you have to wait for time. And we're inside the macro | ||
290 | |289 |00:28:11 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |now, 957, here. We're inside the time element of it, and you're blending the | ||
291 | |290 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |first time. So the the market should start schooling. That means it's going | ||
292 | |291 |00:28:24 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |to run it's not directional. It just means it's going to run higher or lower. | ||
293 | |292 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:36 |So how do you determine the direction? Well, we open up high at the 930 price | ||
294 | |293 |00:28:36 ~-~-> 00:28:41 |here, relative to yesterday's, 414 so when the public sees that. They say, | ||
295 | |294 |00:28:41 ~-~-> 00:28:44 |wow, we're higher than when we closed yesterday. It's bullish. Let me buy it | ||
296 | |295 |00:28:44 ~-~-> 00:28:51 |and chase it. Professionals, they want to see it do what settle into that gap, | ||
297 | |296 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:55 |and then the real picture will happen. It'll give you more insights about what | ||
298 | |297 |00:28:55 ~-~-> 00:29:00 |the market will likely do. So by having an expectation on what the retail | ||
299 | |298 |00:29:00 ~-~-> 00:29:05 |perspective trader will think, if we know that these relative equal lows down | ||
300 | |299 |00:29:05 ~-~-> 00:29:15 |here are too obvious. There's there's resting orders down I don't need a depth | ||
301 | |300 |00:29:15 ~-~-> 00:29:18 |of market. I don't need a ladder. I don't need a book map. I don't need any | ||
302 | |301 |00:29:18 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |kind of these, these gimmicks that people are leaning on right now, and | ||
303 | |302 |00:29:22 ~-~-> 00:29:26 |it's good that they have something to go by, but you don't need that. You know, | ||
304 | |303 |00:29:26 ~-~-> 00:29:29 |I'm saying like you don't need to have those tools, because all you have to do | ||
305 | |304 |00:29:29 ~-~-> 00:29:32 |is let the chart tell you the price is going to tell you everything you need to | ||
306 | |305 |00:29:32 ~-~-> 00:29:36 |know, as long as you can see what time it is, what day it is, what where do we | ||
307 | |306 |00:29:36 ~-~-> 00:29:39 |have an inefficiency? Where's their relative equal highs, relative equal | ||
308 | |307 |00:29:39 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |lows. And all you need is just that, and you have everything you need to find | ||
309 | |308 |00:29:44 ~-~-> 00:29:48 |setups that are going to never run out of supply like you always like you, | ||
310 | |309 |00:29:48 ~-~-> 00:29:52 |always find setups. So because it's likely to draw down here and it's | ||
311 | |310 |00:29:52 ~-~-> 00:29:58 |Friday, we've moved up every day bullish. There's your gap right here on | ||
312 | |311 |00:29:58 ~-~-> 00:30:01 |the 15 second chart. Yeah, so | ||
313 | |312 |00:30:08 ~-~-> 00:30:11 |all you're doing is you're waiting for opportunities to see price behave in a | ||
314 | |313 |00:30:11 ~-~-> 00:30:22 |manner that is obvious. It gives you immediate feedback. If the trade idea is | ||
315 | |314 |00:30:22 ~-~-> 00:30:27 |right, you'll see all the things that would lead up to that setup come to | ||
316 | |315 |00:30:27 ~-~-> 00:30:32 |fruition quickly. They won't. It won't spend a whole lot of time messing around | ||
317 | |316 |00:30:32 ~-~-> 00:30:36 |in levels, like if, if you expect it to go lower, everything that you would | ||
318 | |317 |00:30:36 ~-~-> 00:30:42 |expect to see price used to keep it from going higher. If those factors are not | ||
319 | |318 |00:30:42 ~-~-> 00:30:47 |being seen in price action, chances are you have initial feedback that your | ||
320 | |319 |00:30:47 ~-~-> 00:30:51 |trade idea is probably not on side. One side means you're right about the | ||
321 | |320 |00:30:51 ~-~-> 00:30:54 |directional eyes, or if you're going to trade it, you're bullish. That means | ||
322 | |321 |00:30:55 ~-~-> 00:30:58 |everything is indicating that the market's still going higher, and there's | ||
323 | |322 |00:30:58 ~-~-> 00:31:03 |nothing that should upset you or make you nervous. By having PB arrays and by | ||
324 | |323 |00:31:03 ~-~-> 00:31:10 |having things around time, expecting price to behave a certain way, the more | ||
325 | |324 |00:31:10 ~-~-> 00:31:15 |things you can stack in your favor, not just simply, because it's at 950, to | ||
326 | |325 |00:31:15 ~-~-> 00:31:19 |1010, it's time to take a trade, and this is going in and do something. You | ||
327 | |326 |00:31:19 ~-~-> 00:31:24 |have to have a basis of what it is you're framing the idea on. And if you | ||
328 | |327 |00:31:24 ~-~-> 00:31:27 |don't have that, then you don't have a narrative understood. And if you're | ||
329 | |328 |00:31:27 ~-~-> 00:31:32 |trading without understanding the narrative. Narrative is not bias, okay? | ||
330 | |329 |00:31:32 ~-~-> 00:31:37 |Bias is are you bullish or you're bearish? You gotta go one step beyond | ||
331 | |330 |00:31:37 ~-~-> 00:31:42 |that, like you gotta know where is it likely to go and why would it be | ||
332 | |331 |00:31:43 ~-~-> 00:31:47 |realistic to assume it's going to go there? So my framework around the idea | ||
333 | |332 |00:31:47 ~-~-> 00:31:52 |of getting down to these lows that make this line here, if that is something | ||
334 | |333 |00:31:52 ~-~-> 00:32:02 |that was happening on a Monday, it was probably be less less likely to occur, | ||
335 | |334 |00:32:02 ~-~-> 00:32:07 |because money's a new week, and they may be doing something entirely different to | ||
336 | |335 |00:32:07 ~-~-> 00:32:11 |frame a narrative, whereas we have, it's Friday today, we've been going up every | ||
337 | |336 |00:32:11 ~-~-> 00:32:16 |single day, and we haven't had a lot of rain to be upside, but we've, we've, | ||
338 | |337 |00:32:16 ~-~-> 00:32:20 |we've traveled higher all, all this week, so it's reasonable to see some | ||
339 | |338 |00:32:20 ~-~-> 00:32:24 |kind of a retracement, and all you do is simply look for reasons to take out old | ||
340 | |339 |00:32:24 ~-~-> 00:32:30 |lows or trade or reprice to old lows or an old low. In this case, we have just | ||
341 | |340 |00:32:30 ~-~-> 00:32:33 |obvious relative equal lows. So I'm not interested in being long. I don't care | ||
342 | |341 |00:32:33 ~-~-> 00:32:37 |less if this thing went up 100 handles, that's simply not a trade I would be in. | ||
343 | |342 |00:32:37 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |Do you understand? Yes, so it allows me to be comfortable with one side of the | ||
344 | |343 |00:32:43 ~-~-> 00:32:50 |marketplace waiting for a setup that is logical, that it is in a in a time that | ||
345 | |344 |00:32:50 ~-~-> 00:32:55 |the market's going to behave a certain way, where it's easy to see it where | ||
346 | |345 |00:32:55 ~-~-> 00:33:05 |it's easy, it's one handed. Well, not one handed, one sided. I I think about | ||
347 | |346 |00:33:05 ~-~-> 00:33:14 |where we have opened that at 930 and where we're trading at right now, other | ||
348 | |347 |00:33:14 ~-~-> 00:33:22 |days when the market has more week more time in the week before Friday's close, | ||
349 | |348 |00:33:23 ~-~-> 00:33:28 |it'll offer a lot better, cleaner price action, and you won't have all of this | ||
350 | |349 |00:33:28 ~-~-> 00:33:32 |back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. The reason why we didn't have | ||
351 | |350 |00:33:32 ~-~-> 00:33:38 |that large of a gap was indicating that it was going to be this kind of morning | ||
352 | |351 |00:33:42 ~-~-> 00:33:45 |if you're looking to trade and use large leverage, which is most of what my | ||
353 | |352 |00:33:45 ~-~-> 00:33:48 |students are trying to do, because they're using these funded accounts, | ||
354 | |353 |00:33:48 ~-~-> 00:33:55 |they're trying to really strap on this big ass contract size because they want | ||
355 | |354 |00:33:55 ~-~-> 00:34:00 |to be able to get something quick. They want to give big windfall victories. And | ||
356 | |355 |00:34:00 ~-~-> 00:34:07 |they're greedy and they're impatient. You can't do those types of traits in | ||
357 | |356 |00:34:07 ~-~-> 00:34:13 |days and mornings like this. If you have a large gap, very large gap opening, you | ||
358 | |357 |00:34:13 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |have the first signature that tells you, okay, yes. If you know what you're | ||
359 | |358 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:22 |doing, you know what you're expecting, then you can see a little bit larger | ||
360 | |359 |00:34:22 ~-~-> 00:34:27 |risk. Not that larger risk is right, but why would you want to risk the maximum | ||
361 | |360 |00:34:27 ~-~-> 00:34:34 |in a market that has several things going against it right away? That's the | ||
362 | |361 |00:34:34 ~-~-> 00:34:40 |That's a Gambler's mentality, where they'll go in and they'll try to force | ||
363 | |362 |00:34:40 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |their will on it. And dad has done that a lot. When I was 20, like, I'm gonna | ||
364 | |363 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:49 |it, it stopped me out, or it scared me out of my trade, and I got out of it, | ||
365 | |364 |00:34:49 ~-~-> 00:34:54 |and then it ran where I wanted to go as a 20 year old, it was it would make me | ||
366 | |365 |00:34:54 ~-~-> 00:34:59 |mad, and then I'd go in, I'm gonna exact revenge on it, soybean market. Your ass | ||
367 | |366 |00:34:59 ~-~-> 00:35:03 |is mine. You know, and then they would hand me my backside even more, you know. | ||
368 | |367 |00:35:03 ~-~-> 00:35:09 |And I didn't learn my lesson for a long time doing that. So one of the biggest | ||
369 | |368 |00:35:09 ~-~-> 00:35:13 |things I started to invest my time in is determining when not to take trades, | ||
370 | |369 |00:35:14 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |when not to when not to expect it to be an invitation for me to get in, but | ||
371 | |370 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:26 |there's always an invitation for your study. So perfect example, we opened up | ||
372 | |371 |00:35:26 ~-~-> 00:35:31 |with a indication by me into opening a session that I think this is going to be | ||
373 | |372 |00:35:31 ~-~-> 00:35:39 |a lackluster morning based on how we opened. Because we opened this way, all | ||
374 | |373 |00:35:39 ~-~-> 00:35:43 |the things can be in the chart we have the fair value gap. Did you see me say | ||
375 | |374 |00:35:43 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |entry? Did you see me post the demo? Did you see me doing it? No, no, we're | ||
376 | |375 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:52 |waiting. Because I want to show you how having this first indication that it's | ||
377 | |376 |00:35:52 ~-~-> 00:36:01 |going to be problematic. If you read my comments, okay, most of them are all, | ||
378 | |377 |00:36:01 ~-~-> 00:36:05 |like, sickeningly sweet, like supportive. I love you, and I thank you | ||
379 | |378 |00:36:05 ~-~-> 00:36:08 |for teaching all that stuff, and that's great. I appreciate all that. But we | ||
380 | |379 |00:36:08 ~-~-> 00:36:13 |went to the top of the opening range gap here. Went to the upper quadrant. You | ||
381 | |380 |00:36:13 ~-~-> 00:36:17 |see that in this type of action here, that is, that's actually productive. I | ||
382 | |381 |00:36:17 ~-~-> 00:36:21 |like to see that if we get down below that fair value gap again, here same | ||
383 | |382 |00:36:21 ~-~-> 00:36:26 |scenario. Then we would want to see it. Now we've had the market redelivered | ||
384 | |383 |00:36:26 ~-~-> 00:36:32 |almost to the top. It left a small little portion. See that? Yes, so let's | ||
385 | |384 |00:36:32 ~-~-> 00:36:36 |play devil's advocate for a minute. Let me finish my thought. Thirds first | ||
386 | |385 |00:36:39 ~-~-> 00:36:42 |they'll say you're hiding. You're losing traits. What they don't realize is I'm | ||
387 | |386 |00:36:42 ~-~-> 00:36:47 |using what I'm teaching here today is I'm being highly selective, and they're | ||
388 | |387 |00:36:47 ~-~-> 00:36:50 |ignoring the fact that the things I'm talking about live in the live stream, | ||
389 | |388 |00:36:51 ~-~-> 00:36:58 |they're the things that are panning out so the now, watch your, watch your, your | ||
390 | |389 |00:36:58 ~-~-> 00:37:06 |gap here on the 15 second chart. Okay, if it can offer some kind of a smaller | ||
391 | |390 |00:37:06 ~-~-> 00:37:10 |fair value gap in the range here before this low is taken, then if it starts to | ||
392 | |391 |00:37:10 ~-~-> 00:37:15 |sell off, it should accelerate and very quickly run down into here. But if you | ||
393 | |392 |00:37:15 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |don't have the if, if you don't have a skill set or an attempt to get into the | ||
394 | |393 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:29 |marketplace with the pursuit of knowing when you should sit still. Why should | ||
395 | |394 |00:37:29 ~-~-> 00:37:33 |you rush in to do something right now? Well, you're greedy, you're impatient, | ||
396 | |395 |00:37:34 ~-~-> 00:37:38 |you're impulsive, or you're chasing somebody else's influence, and that's | ||
397 | |396 |00:37:38 ~-~-> 00:37:41 |one of the things I can't stand about social media, because there's a lot of | ||
398 | |397 |00:37:41 ~-~-> 00:37:47 |people online that are selling courses. They're They're inspiring people | ||
399 | |398 |00:37:47 ~-~-> 00:37:51 |watching them to get into a trade, and it's advantageous for them to do that, | ||
400 | |399 |00:37:51 ~-~-> 00:37:54 |because they're going to blow their account and they're going to use that | ||
401 | |400 |00:37:54 ~-~-> 00:37:58 |same affiliate link underneath that video, and that person's like a drug | ||
402 | |401 |00:37:58 ~-~-> 00:38:02 |dealer getting them hopped up. They're blowing their accounts on their live | ||
403 | |402 |00:38:02 ~-~-> 00:38:06 |stream too, and they get used to thinking, Oh, it's still cool. We're all | ||
404 | |403 |00:38:06 ~-~-> 00:38:10 |we're all community of losers. And the guy that's running or the gal that's | ||
405 | |404 |00:38:10 ~-~-> 00:38:13 |running the YouTube channel, they're actually profiting off of these zombies | ||
406 | |405 |00:38:13 ~-~-> 00:38:17 |that are literally in there, just blindlessly following them and saying, | ||
407 | |406 |00:38:17 ~-~-> 00:38:20 |Okay, I'm just going to go in here. But we're part of a tribe. We're part of a | ||
408 | |407 |00:38:20 ~-~-> 00:38:24 |community. So I'm thankful I didn't come up in that because I think as a 20 year | ||
409 | |408 |00:38:24 ~-~-> 00:38:27 |old, I probably would have got caught up in it initially, because I wanted to | ||
410 | |409 |00:38:27 ~-~-> 00:38:32 |find my place in it. And I teach my students that they are home in | ||
411 | |410 |00:38:32 ~-~-> 00:38:35 |themselves. They don't need to be in another community. They don't need to be | ||
412 | |411 |00:38:35 ~-~-> 00:38:41 |in my community. Okay, there's no team ICT, but imagine if you don't have these | ||
413 | |412 |00:38:41 ~-~-> 00:38:46 |reference points like I'm showing you here today, and then also not expecting | ||
414 | |413 |00:38:46 ~-~-> 00:38:50 |that it's going to be a problematic morning session, and you just simply go | ||
415 | |414 |00:38:50 ~-~-> 00:38:53 |in there and say, Well, we have these things. Then we went back to the first | ||
416 | |415 |00:38:53 ~-~-> 00:38:57 |one minute fair value gap here. So the first presented fair value gap on the | ||
417 | |416 |00:38:57 ~-~-> 00:39:02 |one minute chart is this dark one here. I'm going to take this, the shaded area | ||
418 | |417 |00:39:02 ~-~-> 00:39:02 |off. | ||
419 | |418 |00:39:06 ~-~-> 00:39:11 |This is your one minute first presented fair value gap. And it's valid because | ||
420 | |419 |00:39:11 ~-~-> 00:39:18 |it is that 935 it's not on 930 candle. So anything between 931 or 931 to 10 | ||
421 | |420 |00:39:18 ~-~-> 00:39:21 |o'clock, whatever fair value gap that forms on the one minute chart, that's | ||
422 | |421 |00:39:21 ~-~-> 00:39:26 |That's yours. That's the one you use. I don't care what anybody else does with | ||
423 | |422 |00:39:26 ~-~-> 00:39:29 |it. If they're welcome to experiment and do whatever they want with it. But you, | ||
424 | |423 |00:39:29 ~-~-> 00:39:36 |that's the one you use. In time, you will start to use this information here. | ||
425 | |424 |00:39:36 ~-~-> 00:39:42 |And then you can use a 15 second or a 45 second or a 32nd but you have to start | ||
426 | |425 |00:39:42 ~-~-> 00:39:48 |somewhere, and your starting point is this one. This way, it tells dad by | ||
427 | |426 |00:39:48 ~-~-> 00:39:53 |watching what you do and when you do your executions, I will see how you use | ||
428 | |427 |00:39:53 ~-~-> 00:39:57 |that first presented fair value guy, and it'll help me help you determine where | ||
429 | |428 |00:39:57 ~-~-> 00:40:02 |you're messing up. Because if you don't. Are at the same reference point to get | ||
430 | |429 |00:40:02 ~-~-> 00:40:06 |your bearings like this is, this is a common price level that everybody that's | ||
431 | |430 |00:40:06 ~-~-> 00:40:11 |watching can still still do the same thing that you're doing, learn how to | ||
432 | |431 |00:40:11 ~-~-> 00:40:15 |read price based on that one reference point. Basically all this is telling you | ||
433 | |432 |00:40:15 ~-~-> 00:40:20 |is the market's bullish when it's above it and it's bearish when it's below. It. | ||
434 | |433 |00:40:21 ~-~-> 00:40:25 |But we have to allow that volatility that occurs in the first 30 minutes to | ||
435 | |434 |00:40:25 ~-~-> 00:40:31 |traverse above and below it, and then we get to a macro time like 950, to 1010, | ||
436 | |435 |00:40:32 ~-~-> 00:40:36 |if everything is in play, and they've already made the upper portion of it | ||
437 | |436 |00:40:36 ~-~-> 00:40:42 |jagged, did they not take out this high with this run here? Yes. So if it's | ||
438 | |437 |00:40:42 ~-~-> 00:40:48 |bearish, it would have already went down here. If it had been a larger gap open, | ||
439 | |438 |00:40:49 ~-~-> 00:40:52 |it would have already done it, if it was done and dusted, and probably would have | ||
440 | |439 |00:40:52 ~-~-> 00:40:57 |ended the stream button, but because it had all the indications with it, was not | ||
441 | |440 |00:40:57 ~-~-> 00:41:05 |a very, very large gap. And how we behaved right at 930 and what we've been | ||
442 | |441 |00:41:05 ~-~-> 00:41:09 |doing has led to exactly what I said beginning stream, where it's going to be | ||
443 | |442 |00:41:09 ~-~-> 00:41:12 |a lack of luster morning session. Now that doesn't mean that that hasn't had | ||
444 | |443 |00:41:12 ~-~-> 00:41:16 |setups. I mean, we were, we were trading yesterday, you know, watching them go up | ||
445 | |444 |00:41:16 ~-~-> 00:41:19 |and down, and I did it with my private students last night too, teaching them | ||
446 | |445 |00:41:19 ~-~-> 00:41:24 |how to practice and do drills, and we ran up $34,000 in just a little bit of | ||
447 | |446 |00:41:24 ~-~-> 00:41:29 |time yesterday. Here you're being met with a little bit more challenging | ||
448 | |447 |00:41:29 ~-~-> 00:41:34 |environment. So you have to be highly selective about what you're trying to | ||
449 | |448 |00:41:34 ~-~-> 00:41:40 |take a trade on what would be wrong, what would be inherently wrong about | ||
450 | |449 |00:41:40 ~-~-> 00:41:47 |taking a trade if the market went below here, over here on the one minute chart, | ||
451 | |450 |00:41:47 ~-~-> 00:41:53 |let's say that you waited for price to go below that and you want you went | ||
452 | |451 |00:41:53 ~-~-> 00:41:57 |short down here. Is that technically, in your opinion, is that something that | ||
453 | |452 |00:41:57 ~-~-> 00:42:02 |would be viable? Would it be high risk? Would it be low risk if you waited for | ||
454 | |453 |00:42:02 ~-~-> 00:42:06 |it to go down below this low, knowing, based on what you have an understanding | ||
455 | |454 |00:42:06 ~-~-> 00:42:09 |and don't be afraid to answer it. Just tell me what you think would would it be | ||
456 | |455 |00:42:09 ~-~-> 00:42:13 |advantageous for you to be short after it goes below this low, to get to this | ||
457 | |456 |00:42:13 ~-~-> 00:42:14 |this level down here? | ||
458 | |457 |00:42:15 ~-~-> 00:42:19 |I wouldn't say it's advantageous. My opinion would be, would be somewhat | ||
459 | |458 |00:42:19 ~-~-> 00:42:21 |leaning towards Jason price. In my opinion, | ||
460 | |459 |00:42:24 ~-~-> 00:42:33 |normally, yeah, yes, but because we have the smooth area in price action over | ||
461 | |460 |00:42:33 ~-~-> 00:42:40 |here, contrast this, all these relative all these, these two relative equal | ||
462 | |461 |00:42:40 ~-~-> 00:42:47 |lows. Contrast that with that's what's below the market price. So below the | ||
463 | |462 |00:42:47 ~-~-> 00:42:56 |market price, things are smooth. We have smooth lows here. The market has traded | ||
464 | |463 |00:42:56 ~-~-> 00:43:01 |higher, taking up this short term high, and we went into the upper half of that | ||
465 | |464 |00:43:01 ~-~-> 00:43:02 |opening range gap. | ||
466 | |465 |00:43:09 ~-~-> 00:43:18 |He's clearing his throat. He's coming off of a bug. Good, cough up a lung. Oh, | ||
467 | |466 |00:43:18 ~-~-> 00:43:23 |man, this is basic training. You got time for this? Closest this, plus you | ||
468 | |467 |00:43:23 ~-~-> 00:43:29 |should. So we have the market take take out this high here, and it took out this | ||
469 | |468 |00:43:29 ~-~-> 00:43:33 |hot here, so it had aggression going up in the upper half of that open range | ||
470 | |469 |00:43:33 ~-~-> 00:43:39 |gap. Was it able to stay there? They can't hear you? Shake your head now, | ||
471 | |470 |00:43:39 ~-~-> 00:43:47 |sorry. Did it stay there? No, okay, where did the body stop at this line? | ||
472 | |471 |00:43:47 ~-~-> 00:43:53 |Right here, right? What is this line? It's the upper quadrant of the gap | ||
473 | |472 |00:43:54 ~-~-> 00:44:00 |between 930s opening price and yesterday's 414, final settlement price. | ||
474 | |473 |00:44:01 ~-~-> 00:44:07 |So when it went up here, the bodies are telling you, yes, we went up into the | ||
475 | |474 |00:44:07 ~-~-> 00:44:10 |upper half because ICT is on a live stream saying it's better if they don't | ||
476 | |475 |00:44:10 ~-~-> 00:44:13 |do it, so they want to mess around with it, but it's still okay, because the | ||
477 | |476 |00:44:13 ~-~-> 00:44:18 |bodies are telling you that it is not laying a body to the upper half | ||
478 | |477 |00:44:19 ~-~-> 00:44:23 |entirely. It's just going to the upper quadrant level it wicks, but it let the | ||
479 | |478 |00:44:23 ~-~-> 00:44:28 |small little portion open up. So because it's done these types of things here, I | ||
480 | |479 |00:44:28 ~-~-> 00:44:34 |still favor the market wilting and rolling over and going down to attack | ||
481 | |480 |00:44:34 ~-~-> 00:44:40 |and reprice into those sell side. The problem is, and this is what my students | ||
482 | |481 |00:44:40 ~-~-> 00:44:44 |encounter, and this is why I tell them when we were when we first did paid | ||
483 | |482 |00:44:44 ~-~-> 00:44:50 |mentorship in September of 2016 when I was teaching these kind of concepts, I | ||
484 | |483 |00:44:50 ~-~-> 00:44:53 |had assholes in there that were expecting me to spoon feed them trade | ||
485 | |484 |00:44:53 ~-~-> 00:44:57 |setups. Here's a stop, here's an entry, here's your target. And they signed an | ||
486 | |485 |00:44:57 ~-~-> 00:45:01 |agreement digitally, knowing that that's not. What this was I'm teaching how to | ||
487 | |486 |00:45:01 ~-~-> 00:45:05 |read price action, and the first lessons I was teaching them was to learn these | ||
488 | |487 |00:45:05 ~-~-> 00:45:12 |types of setups where, if you know it's going to be hard for you to climb a hill | ||
489 | |488 |00:45:12 ~-~-> 00:45:18 |because it's just snowed and it's icy, why would you want to risk your brand | ||
490 | |489 |00:45:18 ~-~-> 00:45:22 |new car trying to drive up this icy hill when you could just go out of route, | ||
491 | |490 |00:45:23 ~-~-> 00:45:27 |wait a little bit, go down a different pathway to avoid that hill. You can get | ||
492 | |491 |00:45:27 ~-~-> 00:45:30 |to the same destination, but don't do that thing there. But everybody's going | ||
493 | |492 |00:45:30 ~-~-> 00:45:34 |to say, well, the surest path to get to the 711 because I gotta get my | ||
494 | |493 |00:45:34 ~-~-> 00:45:36 |cigarettes. I gotta get my morning coffee because I gotta go to work. | ||
495 | |494 |00:45:37 ~-~-> 00:45:40 |They're going to do what everybody else is going to try to do. And then watch it | ||
496 | |495 |00:45:40 ~-~-> 00:45:44 |on YouTube. You see these people. You see other cars have failed. Oh, not me. | ||
497 | |496 |00:45:44 ~-~-> 00:45:47 |I know how to do it. Yeah, you did it better. You smashed into four cars now. | ||
498 | |497 |00:45:47 ~-~-> 00:45:52 |So having an understanding of how you're going to get kicked out of this game | ||
499 | |498 |00:45:52 ~-~-> 00:45:57 |prematurely, or hurt yourself, or force yourself trying to do something that is | ||
500 | |499 |00:45:57 ~-~-> 00:46:02 |not likely to be successful at that time, at that moment, not that what | ||
501 | |500 |00:46:02 ~-~-> 00:46:06 |you're trying to do is flawed logic. It just means that you're trying to put | ||
502 | |501 |00:46:06 ~-~-> 00:46:13 |something together that is most likely not going to pan out at that moment in | ||
503 | |502 |00:46:13 ~-~-> 00:46:17 |time. There's going to you're going to see things that's going to be | ||
504 | |503 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:28 |adversarial to that. So knowing these things and how to read it will help. In | ||
505 | |504 |00:46:28 ~-~-> 00:46:34 |my opinion, it would have helped me. I know that try to keep you from taking | ||
506 | |505 |00:46:34 ~-~-> 00:46:39 |trades that you might think are there. They might look like they're really | ||
507 | |506 |00:46:39 ~-~-> 00:46:42 |there, and then when you get in them, they run against you, and then you get | ||
508 | |507 |00:46:42 ~-~-> 00:46:47 |frustrated, and if you're not in control of yourself, and you can't compose | ||
509 | |508 |00:46:47 ~-~-> 00:46:50 |yourself and maintain that composure while you're watching price, you'll go | ||
510 | |509 |00:46:50 ~-~-> 00:46:54 |on what's called tilt, where you just basically go into Gambler's numbness, | ||
511 | |510 |00:46:55 ~-~-> 00:46:59 |and you just start clicking the button because you just want to escape that | ||
512 | |511 |00:46:59 ~-~-> 00:47:03 |pain of what you Just did was wrong and you can't reconcile it, so the only | ||
513 | |512 |00:47:03 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |thing you can do is do what. Get more of the hair the dog that bit you, and you | ||
514 | |513 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:09 |go in and do something else, impulsively, hoping that you're going to | ||
515 | |514 |00:47:09 ~-~-> 00:47:13 |get a lottery win, because that'll distract you from the pain and | ||
516 | |515 |00:47:13 ~-~-> 00:47:18 |discomfort of you knowing that you impulsively did something, knowing that | ||
517 | |516 |00:47:18 ~-~-> 00:47:22 |what I'm teaching is giving you the framework to just justify why you should | ||
518 | |517 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:30 |sit still, to sit still. Paper, trade it. Demo, trade it. Tape, read it where | ||
519 | |518 |00:47:30 ~-~-> 00:47:34 |you don't push any buttons, that's what you're supposed to be doing. When you | ||
520 | |519 |00:47:34 ~-~-> 00:47:39 |see a market environment, it's going to be problematic. No problem. It's much | ||
521 | |520 |00:47:39 ~-~-> 00:47:50 |more helpful and progress is better acquired by looking at price like this | ||
522 | |521 |00:47:50 ~-~-> 00:47:54 |and saying, Okay, there's no entry, there's no loss. I didn't miss any | ||
523 | |522 |00:47:54 ~-~-> 00:48:00 |profit, and I'm not feeling the pain or the regret, buyers or sellers, remorse. | ||
524 | |523 |00:48:00 ~-~-> 00:48:04 |You're not having that experience right now. Other traders out there that have | ||
525 | |524 |00:48:04 ~-~-> 00:48:06 |been trying to trade today if they're wrong, I'm not saying all of them are | ||
526 | |525 |00:48:06 ~-~-> 00:48:10 |wrong. I'm sure somebody's out there made something, but it's in a market | ||
527 | |526 |00:48:10 ~-~-> 00:48:15 |that's a little bit more problematic. It's not impossible. It's not that. It's | ||
528 | |527 |00:48:15 ~-~-> 00:48:22 |you can't find a setup in it. This means that having these technicals like this | ||
529 | |528 |00:48:22 ~-~-> 00:48:29 |today, chances of you as a brand new student being able to navigate this and | ||
530 | |529 |00:48:29 ~-~-> 00:48:32 |have money money behind the idea of being right or wrong at the end of that | ||
531 | |530 |00:48:32 ~-~-> 00:48:37 |transaction, it's going to be much more stressful. And I tried to teach my | ||
532 | |531 |00:48:37 ~-~-> 00:48:45 |students watch this wick here. I try to teach my students how they can go in and | ||
533 | |532 |00:48:45 ~-~-> 00:48:48 |watch price action while they're in a trade | ||
534 | |533 |00:48:51 ~-~-> 00:48:52 |and take these quadrants off. | ||
535 | |534 |00:48:55 ~-~-> 00:49:00 |I like to watch and how price behaves around its midpoint of its wicks. I'd | ||
536 | |535 |00:49:00 ~-~-> 00:49:05 |like to see it wilt right through that and then rush down into that cell side. | ||
537 | |536 |00:49:14 ~-~-> 00:49:20 |So it's not, it's not enough. Just to say, you know, I have, I have a male I | ||
538 | |537 |00:49:20 ~-~-> 00:49:24 |have a model. I can see the relative equal lows. I can see the relative equal | ||
539 | |538 |00:49:24 ~-~-> 00:49:31 |highs. You have to know the lay of the land, the terrain, and if, if you | ||
540 | |539 |00:49:31 ~-~-> 00:49:39 |anticipate the market's going to be very, very fluid, meaning that dad | ||
541 | |540 |00:49:39 ~-~-> 00:49:42 |teaches there's two types of trading conditions in the marketplace. There's | ||
542 | |541 |00:49:42 ~-~-> 00:49:47 |high resistance, liquidity runs, which is what we're seeing here. The market's | ||
543 | |542 |00:49:47 ~-~-> 00:49:50 |having difficulties trying to run to the obvious liquidity it's down there. We | ||
544 | |543 |00:49:50 ~-~-> 00:49:54 |can clearly see their sell side down. But it's encountering what high | ||
545 | |544 |00:49:54 ~-~-> 00:49:57 |resistance, not in the sense of resistance and support, like a retail | ||
546 | |545 |00:49:57 ~-~-> 00:50:02 |trader, it's resisting the easy, fast. Last straight shot right to the | ||
547 | |546 |00:50:02 ~-~-> 00:50:06 |liquidity. What would cause that? Well, the conditions of opening up the way we | ||
548 | |547 |00:50:06 ~-~-> 00:50:10 |did, it was a, it was not a rather large gap, a large opening gap. That's like | ||
549 | |548 |00:50:10 ~-~-> 00:50:15 |the precursor to, we're going to have a really fluid market, a really large gap. | ||
550 | |549 |00:50:16 ~-~-> 00:50:21 |And I like 75 handles. I That's, that's personal, like, that's my thing. I can | ||
551 | |550 |00:50:21 ~-~-> 00:50:27 |trade in all this mess here too, but I've learned by doing these days like | ||
552 | |551 |00:50:27 ~-~-> 00:50:32 |this, and I'm trading them, and I'll show a recording of me doing it when | ||
553 | |552 |00:50:32 ~-~-> 00:50:36 |it's like this, and students are aware. They can see that it's being a little | ||
554 | |553 |00:50:36 ~-~-> 00:50:42 |bit apprehensive about going to where it would obviously, it would obviously make | ||
555 | |554 |00:50:42 ~-~-> 00:50:45 |perfect sense for it to go down to that cell side. It would because it's clear, | ||
556 | |555 |00:50:45 ~-~-> 00:50:49 |it's easy, it's relative equal loads, it's smooth, and we've made it jagged. | ||
557 | |556 |00:50:49 ~-~-> 00:50:52 |On the upside of all this up here is jagged, and what's smooth is what | ||
558 | |557 |00:50:52 ~-~-> 00:50:58 |remains over here. So it's hard for them to keep submitting to that idea. Every | ||
559 | |558 |00:50:58 ~-~-> 00:51:02 |time it creates these jumps back up, or it consolidates and it drops and it | ||
560 | |559 |00:51:02 ~-~-> 00:51:07 |comes right back. That's what scares them. And they're all characteristics | ||
561 | |560 |00:51:07 ~-~-> 00:51:12 |that are hallmarks for high resistance liquidity runs. And I tried to teach my | ||
562 | |561 |00:51:12 ~-~-> 00:51:16 |students that, when I was teaching Forex, that as soon as you can pick up | ||
563 | |562 |00:51:16 ~-~-> 00:51:20 |on those characteristics and price action when they're not in the | ||
564 | |563 |00:51:20 ~-~-> 00:51:26 |marketplace you have low resistance liquidity run markets where the markets | ||
565 | |564 |00:51:26 ~-~-> 00:51:29 |are easy, they just go in right from your entry, and they just go right, | ||
566 | |565 |00:51:29 ~-~-> 00:51:32 |right to the liquidity or right to the inefficiency, and it's fast delivery | ||
567 | |566 |00:51:32 ~-~-> 00:51:37 |immediate feedback. As soon as you recognize you're in a high resistance | ||
568 | |567 |00:51:37 ~-~-> 00:51:43 |liquidity run type market like this, you should dial back your leverage. You | ||
569 | |568 |00:51:43 ~-~-> 00:51:48 |should slow down if you get stopped out, really take a second chance. Of, do I | ||
570 | |569 |00:51:49 ~-~-> 00:51:54 |really want to get back in the trade? Or let me just take this trade on paper, or | ||
571 | |570 |00:51:54 ~-~-> 00:51:57 |let me just take read it and just get the experience that way, because I've | ||
572 | |571 |00:51:57 ~-~-> 00:52:01 |already took a loss. So that way, if I compound that loss, it won't be worse, | ||
573 | |572 |00:52:01 ~-~-> 00:52:07 |and it's even the more more demoralizing when it's a Friday, because if you lose | ||
574 | |573 |00:52:07 ~-~-> 00:52:12 |on Friday, or if you lost your weekly profits, you know that you've accrued | ||
575 | |574 |00:52:12 ~-~-> 00:52:15 |all throughout the week. And here you're on Friday, and you go on tilt, you go | ||
576 | |575 |00:52:15 ~-~-> 00:52:20 |into Gambler's numbness, and you just wipe it all out, and more. That makes a | ||
577 | |576 |00:52:20 ~-~-> 00:52:26 |very painful weekend, and I had lots of them as a young man. I hated it, and I | ||
578 | |577 |00:52:26 ~-~-> 00:52:31 |couldn't wait to get back to Monday so I could go and gamble some more it would | ||
579 | |578 |00:52:31 ~-~-> 00:52:34 |make you make even worse decisions come exactly. And it was just like this cycle | ||
580 | |579 |00:52:34 ~-~-> 00:52:38 |that we repeat over and over and over again. So one of the things that the | ||
581 | |580 |00:52:38 ~-~-> 00:52:43 |dickheads that like to troll me with, they take and they cherry pick certain | ||
582 | |581 |00:52:43 ~-~-> 00:52:47 |things, and they'll say, Well, this is why this stuff doesn't work. This is why | ||
583 | |582 |00:52:47 ~-~-> 00:52:50 |this sucks. This is why ICT can't trade. ICT knows how to fucking trade. Okay, I | ||
584 | |583 |00:52:50 ~-~-> 00:52:55 |know how to fucking trade. They don't know how to see these things. And I'm | ||
585 | |584 |00:52:55 ~-~-> 00:52:58 |trying to communicate to not only them so they can pull their head out of their | ||
586 | |585 |00:52:58 ~-~-> 00:53:02 |ass, but everyone else that's willing to listen and you, because you're my son, | ||
587 | |586 |00:53:02 ~-~-> 00:53:06 |you're perfect example. Look what it is. It got real, real close to it, and then | ||
588 | |587 |00:53:06 ~-~-> 00:53:10 |now you see this. That's exactly what a high resistance liquidity run market | ||
589 | |588 |00:53:10 ~-~-> 00:53:15 |does. It's frustrating. It's like, you ever see that old commercial for GEICO | ||
590 | |589 |00:53:15 ~-~-> 00:53:18 |has this old guy, and he's in these fishing chaps, and he's got the little | ||
591 | |590 |00:53:18 ~-~-> 00:53:21 |dollar bill hanging from the fishing rod, and he's like, dangling the | ||
592 | |591 |00:53:21 ~-~-> 00:53:25 |pathologist, and then we try to reach for it. He's, Oh, you gotta be quicker | ||
593 | |592 |00:53:25 ~-~-> 00:53:28 |than that. Oh, you always had it. And that's kind of like, what a high | ||
594 | |593 |00:53:28 ~-~-> 00:53:32 |resistance liquidity run market is. Like. It teases you a lot. And then when | ||
595 | |594 |00:53:32 ~-~-> 00:53:36 |you finally lose money and you get fed up with it, that's when you turn the | ||
596 | |595 |00:53:36 ~-~-> 00:53:39 |charts off, you go away, and you come back 30 minutes later, or an hour later, | ||
597 | |596 |00:53:39 ~-~-> 00:53:42 |and it ran right to where you thought was going to go. And you're like, you | ||
598 | |597 |00:53:42 ~-~-> 00:53:46 |son of a bitch. So what do you want to do now? You want to go in the afternoon | ||
599 | |598 |00:53:46 ~-~-> 00:53:51 |and rush to get something back, or you go through the weekend and you abuse | ||
600 | |599 |00:53:51 ~-~-> 00:53:55 |your family members, abuse your dog, you know, go out to the bar, get inebriated, | ||
601 | |600 |00:53:55 ~-~-> 00:53:58 |spend your girl money on somebody that ain't going to go home with you. And you | ||
602 | |601 |00:53:58 ~-~-> 00:54:02 |just compound that loser cycle. And then what do you do? You carry that over into | ||
603 | |602 |00:54:02 ~-~-> 00:54:07 |next week, and you're starting on the wrong foot immediately, doing all the | ||
604 | |603 |00:54:07 ~-~-> 00:54:12 |wrong things, because you have this toxic mindset. Now, contrast that with | ||
605 | |604 |00:54:13 ~-~-> 00:54:17 |here's our here's our signatures that we're noticing today. We had a rather | ||
606 | |605 |00:54:17 ~-~-> 00:54:27 |it's not a large opening range gap, but it did that. It's not giving me the | ||
607 | |606 |00:54:27 ~-~-> 00:54:32 |delivery of price that would be synonymous with a low resistance, | ||
608 | |607 |00:54:32 ~-~-> 00:54:36 |liquidity run market, where it's going to move quickly to it, it's going to be | ||
609 | |608 |00:54:36 ~-~-> 00:54:40 |a lot of give and take back and forth, and eventually, after it's grinded down | ||
610 | |609 |00:54:40 ~-~-> 00:54:44 |everybody else, because that's really what's going on. That's that's what it's | ||
611 | |610 |00:54:44 ~-~-> 00:54:51 |doing. These conditions, this is manually intervened. That means there's | ||
612 | |611 |00:54:51 ~-~-> 00:54:57 |something external that's not script, it's not AI driven. These are all | ||
613 | |612 |00:54:57 ~-~-> 00:55:06 |manually intervened conditions. The only time that is AI driven, artificially | ||
614 | |613 |00:55:06 ~-~-> 00:55:09 |driven, which is algorithmic, is when it's time distortion. This is not time | ||
615 | |614 |00:55:09 ~-~-> 00:55:14 |distortion. This is highly, absolutely, 100% manually intervened. So that means | ||
616 | |615 |00:55:14 ~-~-> 00:55:19 |they're saying, No, not yet, no, not yet. No, not yet. So as as soon as you | ||
617 | |616 |00:55:19 ~-~-> 00:55:27 |recognize those, well, that's what I call signature. When you when you can | ||
618 | |617 |00:55:27 ~-~-> 00:55:31 |recognize that's what this is, or you can recognize it going into the opening | ||
619 | |618 |00:55:31 ~-~-> 00:55:35 |in the morning, just simply avoid it, to sit still, and you're going to find that | ||
620 | |619 |00:55:35 ~-~-> 00:55:41 |it is so much more. It's better knowing when to sit outside of these types of | ||
621 | |620 |00:55:41 ~-~-> 00:55:48 |days, even though you can read it and you can see it, it's more fulfilling to | ||
622 | |621 |00:55:48 ~-~-> 00:55:52 |me, as someone that's been doing this for more than 30 years now, I take more | ||
623 | |622 |00:55:53 ~-~-> 00:55:58 |pleasure out of knowing that they are not beating me in this whereas a younger | ||
624 | |623 |00:55:58 ~-~-> 00:56:02 |man I was it was constantly beating me up. The bond market was would slap me | ||
625 | |624 |00:56:02 ~-~-> 00:56:09 |around. The currency futures would slap me around. And I had either I had to | ||
626 | |625 |00:56:09 ~-~-> 00:56:12 |learn this skill set or I was never going to make it. I was never going to | ||
627 | |626 |00:56:12 ~-~-> 00:56:16 |learn how to do it. I wasn't going to be able to maintain an interest because it | ||
628 | |627 |00:56:16 ~-~-> 00:56:22 |was constantly hemorrhaging money. So most of what dad was losing on were | ||
629 | |628 |00:56:22 ~-~-> 00:56:29 |environments like this and or I was going long, and it was a market that was | ||
630 | |629 |00:56:29 ~-~-> 00:56:33 |bearish, and I just didn't understand how short sell short. So I was extremely | ||
631 | |630 |00:56:33 ~-~-> 00:56:37 |limited, so I had absolutely no business being in there trying to trade with real | ||
632 | |631 |00:56:37 ~-~-> 00:56:42 |money. But you know, everybody does stupid, right? So when I teach my | ||
633 | |632 |00:56:42 ~-~-> 00:56:47 |students, and I had a lot of people quit the mentorship in the first three months | ||
634 | |633 |00:56:47 ~-~-> 00:56:53 |in 2016 and they're idiots, but they're literally, they're idiots because I was | ||
635 | |634 |00:56:53 ~-~-> 00:57:00 |teaching them how to avoid losing, like, that's the number one skill set. Like, | ||
636 | |635 |00:57:01 ~-~-> 00:57:04 |you know, as a kid, everybody's played this game before. And you used to ask | ||
637 | |636 |00:57:04 ~-~-> 00:57:07 |me, as a little boy, too, Dad, if you could pick one superpower, what would it | ||
638 | |637 |00:57:07 ~-~-> 00:57:12 |be? Could you fly? You can turn invisible, you know, night crawler, you | ||
639 | |638 |00:57:12 ~-~-> 00:57:17 |can teleport. You can do all this stuff. And it's interesting to see and for the | ||
640 | |639 |00:57:17 ~-~-> 00:57:20 |folks that are listening, you know, if you want to actually be a part of our | ||
641 | |640 |00:57:20 ~-~-> 00:57:24 |interactive study for me, and I'll share it with my son too. If you had a | ||
642 | |641 |00:57:24 ~-~-> 00:57:27 |superpower that you could pick, you know, what superpower would you pick? | ||
643 | |642 |00:57:27 ~-~-> 00:57:33 |You can only have one. What superpower would be? Well, as a trader, I would | ||
644 | |643 |00:57:33 ~-~-> 00:57:37 |want the skill set where I don't take losing trades. It's pretty obvious, | ||
645 | |644 |00:57:37 ~-~-> 00:57:43 |right? It's obvious. So obviously, we can't say that there's a superpower that | ||
646 | |645 |00:57:43 ~-~-> 00:57:47 |can be given to us, like we can't mutate and have a, you know, a track record | ||
647 | |646 |00:57:47 ~-~-> 00:57:51 |that never has losing traits. So we're forced to do what we have to develop a | ||
648 | |647 |00:57:51 ~-~-> 00:57:58 |skill. We have to develop some kind of repertoire, have an arsenal at our | ||
649 | |648 |00:57:58 ~-~-> 00:58:04 |disposal where we can at least do the maximum in terms of preventing that, or | ||
650 | |649 |00:58:04 ~-~-> 00:58:10 |at least not falling victim to conditions that would lay a perfect | ||
651 | |650 |00:58:10 ~-~-> 00:58:15 |table for you to sit down to thinking you're going to eat fine dining, and you | ||
652 | |651 |00:58:15 ~-~-> 00:58:20 |get McDonald's menu bullshit. They ain't food, and you you get sick, and it hurts | ||
653 | |652 |00:58:20 ~-~-> 00:58:24 |your equity, and it hurts your mindset. And if you do things that are, I mean, | ||
654 | |653 |00:58:24 ~-~-> 00:58:29 |look at what it's going over here. This is exactly what I'm talking about. Like, | ||
655 | |654 |00:58:30 ~-~-> 00:58:33 |there are people out there, I guarantee you, I'll go back and watch their | ||
656 | |655 |00:58:33 ~-~-> 00:58:37 |streams later on, they'll be in here, and they'll be talking about what they | ||
657 | |656 |00:58:37 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |think's going to happen, or they'll be complaining about, oh, why is the market | ||
658 | |657 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:44 |doing this to me? Well, that's what these lessons are for. So that way you | ||
659 | |658 |00:58:44 ~-~-> 00:58:49 |don't have to feel that way. I don't feel any regret. I don't feel any I'm | ||
660 | |659 |00:58:49 ~-~-> 00:58:53 |indifferent, because I knew coming into today, this was going to be a lackluster | ||
661 | |660 |00:58:53 ~-~-> 00:58:58 |morning. So how do you use this information? You don't trade with real | ||
662 | |661 |00:58:58 ~-~-> 00:59:01 |money on those days, but you should tape read it, | ||
663 | |662 |00:59:03 ~-~-> 00:59:09 |or do a demo with one contract, with a micro, not many. So that way you're not | ||
664 | |663 |00:59:09 ~-~-> 00:59:13 |worried about the money. It won't hurt your ego if you do it wrong. And you | ||
665 | |664 |00:59:13 ~-~-> 00:59:19 |test every single time that the market would be a entry for you to try to get | ||
666 | |665 |00:59:19 ~-~-> 00:59:23 |down to where you would expect it to trade to and then count how many times | ||
667 | |666 |00:59:23 ~-~-> 00:59:28 |it fails and when it finally does, if you get it, how many things you had to | ||
668 | |667 |00:59:28 ~-~-> 00:59:32 |go through to get that one winning trade. Is it worth it when you draw down | ||
669 | |668 |00:59:32 ~-~-> 00:59:37 |on five or six trades and you finally get that? Oh, it went to my target, but | ||
670 | |669 |00:59:37 ~-~-> 00:59:40 |look at what your commission costs are going to be on that day. Look at what | ||
671 | |670 |00:59:40 ~-~-> 00:59:45 |your drawdown is, even though it went to that target, your net loss, your | ||
672 | |671 |00:59:45 ~-~-> 00:59:51 |negative on the day. So you're spending money on commissions, it's a number one | ||
673 | |672 |00:59:52 ~-~-> 00:59:56 |contributing factor to over traders. They they can still climb out of the | ||
674 | |673 |00:59:56 ~-~-> 01:00:01 |dollar drawdown if they're good, if. They're lucky if it works out in their | ||
675 | |674 |01:00:01 ~-~-> 01:00:06 |favor. But what most people do on the internet, when they see people do this, | ||
676 | |675 |01:00:06 ~-~-> 01:00:10 |they've done it in live streams. They've done it in hindsight, or whatever they | ||
677 | |676 |01:00:10 ~-~-> 01:00:14 |think, wow, they got out of that drawdown, not realizing that the guy | ||
678 | |677 |01:00:14 ~-~-> 01:00:20 |probably had $2,500 in commission costs because he did 100 trades, you know, so. | ||
679 | |678 |01:00:20 ~-~-> 01:00:23 |But I was right, yeah, but, and then, but they want to project the image, not | ||
680 | |679 |01:00:23 ~-~-> 01:00:27 |only to themselves, to the world. I was right, or I'm a better trader than you | ||
681 | |680 |01:00:27 ~-~-> 01:00:31 |think I am. But let's look at the math behind it. You know, let's see what the | ||
682 | |681 |01:00:31 ~-~-> 01:00:35 |real commission costs, and NFA fees, all those things add up. And the average | ||
683 | |682 |01:00:35 ~-~-> 01:00:39 |trader out there that's learning how to do this, they don't know that stuff, so | ||
684 | |683 |01:00:39 ~-~-> 01:00:43 |they fall victim to these assholes that are scamming them and they don't have a | ||
685 | |684 |01:00:43 ~-~-> 01:00:47 |skill set to protect their student, or at least to put them in the right | ||
686 | |685 |01:00:47 ~-~-> 01:00:56 |direction to how best avoid problem markets. Look at it. Got close. It got | ||
687 | |686 |01:00:56 ~-~-> 01:01:00 |down there. But now look where it's at here. Isn't that frustrating? If you | ||
688 | |687 |01:01:00 ~-~-> 01:01:03 |were trying to be short. There's no doubt about it, anybody that would have | ||
689 | |688 |01:01:03 ~-~-> 01:01:07 |been short would be stopped out. Oh yeah, and they're thinking shit, you | ||
690 | |689 |01:01:07 ~-~-> 01:01:14 |know, what am I going to do? Now go back to the woman chart, and I'm telling you, | ||
691 | |690 |01:01:14 ~-~-> 01:01:19 |these are lessons that if I was 20 years old and someone was sitting down with | ||
692 | |691 |01:01:19 ~-~-> 01:01:23 |me, it would have gave me framework. It was slowed my role, because I was | ||
693 | |692 |01:01:23 ~-~-> 01:01:27 |rushing to get out of 95 I was doing everything I could possibly could to get | ||
694 | |693 |01:01:27 ~-~-> 01:01:31 |myself into trades. Because I was thinking, if I get into trades, I'll be | ||
695 | |694 |01:01:31 ~-~-> 01:01:34 |able to make more money. The faster I can make money, the faster I can stop | ||
696 | |695 |01:01:34 ~-~-> 01:01:39 |going to these stupid ass jobs and work 13 hours a day, like I hated it. I hated | ||
697 | |696 |01:01:39 ~-~-> 01:01:44 |it, and I was willing to put myself through pain thinking that it was worth | ||
698 | |697 |01:01:44 ~-~-> 01:01:48 |it. It was not worth it. I was just eight. Was it? No, it caused that all | ||
699 | |698 |01:01:48 ~-~-> 01:01:55 |kinds of problems and digestive issues, mental disorders because of placing so | ||
700 | |699 |01:01:55 ~-~-> 01:01:59 |much emphasis on I have to do it right now and now, looking back as 50 year old | ||
701 | |700 |01:01:59 ~-~-> 01:02:03 |man, I didn't have to clearly I didn't get it as soon as I wanted to happen, | ||
702 | |701 |01:02:03 ~-~-> 01:02:10 |right? So what did I have to submit to time, and if I did the things correctly, | ||
703 | |702 |01:02:10 ~-~-> 01:02:15 |like I taught my students and actively still teaching is to simply just relax | ||
704 | |703 |01:02:15 ~-~-> 01:02:19 |and stop trying to make that next trade your entire career. It's not a make it | ||
705 | |704 |01:02:19 ~-~-> 01:02:25 |or break it, be all end all result at the end of that next trade. But as a 20 | ||
706 | |705 |01:02:25 ~-~-> 01:02:29 |year old, every single time I say I trade, it was like that. It wasn't just, | ||
707 | |706 |01:02:29 ~-~-> 01:02:32 |you know, if I lose on this one, it's okay. It doesn't hurt me. It doesn't | ||
708 | |707 |01:02:32 ~-~-> 01:02:36 |hurt me mentally. It doesn't hurt me financially. But every single trade I | ||
709 | |708 |01:02:36 ~-~-> 01:02:41 |framed did both of those things. It hurt me financially, and it hurt me mentally, | ||
710 | |709 |01:02:41 ~-~-> 01:02:44 |because I was stressing while I was in the trade. There was never a time when I | ||
711 | |710 |01:02:44 ~-~-> 01:02:48 |was 20 years old I was in a trade where I was calm. I was never like that. I was | ||
712 | |711 |01:02:48 ~-~-> 01:02:53 |absolutely at my wit's end every single moment I was in a trade, and many times | ||
713 | |712 |01:02:53 ~-~-> 01:02:59 |I was stressed leading up to the trade, like almost wanting to vomit so and I'm | ||
714 | |713 |01:02:59 ~-~-> 01:03:02 |sure some of you out there listening, you probably feel very similar things, | ||
715 | |714 |01:03:02 ~-~-> 01:03:06 |especially if you've ever experienced losing or if you lost some money. And | ||
716 | |715 |01:03:06 ~-~-> 01:03:12 |it's like the surest way to avoid that is give yourself permission to simply | ||
717 | |716 |01:03:12 ~-~-> 01:03:17 |not know what to do at that given time. And for you live streamers out there, | ||
718 | |717 |01:03:17 ~-~-> 01:03:23 |like I'm one of the biggest persons well personality in trading right now. It | ||
719 | |718 |01:03:23 ~-~-> 01:03:26 |won't stay that way. I'm just hot right now, and when I stop putting out | ||
720 | |719 |01:03:26 ~-~-> 01:03:29 |content, stop live streaming, I'll fizzle out, and somebody else will come | ||
721 | |720 |01:03:29 ~-~-> 01:03:34 |up, and that's how it should be. But if you're live streaming, don't be afraid | ||
722 | |721 |01:03:34 ~-~-> 01:03:38 |or embarrassed to say, You know what? I don't know what to do right now. And I, | ||
723 | |722 |01:03:38 ~-~-> 01:03:42 |with 32 years experience, would have a great deal of respect for something like | ||
724 | |723 |01:03:42 ~-~-> 01:03:46 |that, but you don't see that so much. You see emotional outbursts, meltdowns. | ||
725 | |724 |01:03:47 ~-~-> 01:03:50 |Oh, why is it doing this to me? Oh, I can't understand this. If I was wasn't | ||
726 | |725 |01:03:50 ~-~-> 01:03:54 |watching a chart, it would do this. Stop talking like that, because the only | ||
727 | |726 |01:03:54 ~-~-> 01:03:57 |thing you're doing is anchoring all that stuff emotionally and psychologically to | ||
728 | |727 |01:03:57 ~-~-> 01:04:00 |yourself. You're chaining all that negativity to yourself. You do that, and | ||
729 | |728 |01:04:00 ~-~-> 01:04:04 |not only are you doing to yourself, but your viewers are watching that. And if | ||
730 | |729 |01:04:04 ~-~-> 01:04:08 |you're, if you're trying to, you know, be a mentor, or if you're trying to be a | ||
731 | |730 |01:04:08 ~-~-> 01:04:12 |influencer, you know what you're doing. You're influencing toxicity. You're | ||
732 | |731 |01:04:12 ~-~-> 01:04:20 |literally festering negativity, and it's something that can be collected by your | ||
733 | |732 |01:04:20 ~-~-> 01:04:25 |audience, versus empowering them by watching you be responsible with | ||
734 | |733 |01:04:25 ~-~-> 01:04:29 |yourself and say, You know what? Yes, I have 1000s of people watching Yes. They | ||
735 | |734 |01:04:29 ~-~-> 01:04:32 |all have expectations of me being able to be right about something, or making | ||
736 | |735 |01:04:32 ~-~-> 01:04:36 |money, or passing a combine, or making some kind of money that could | ||
737 | |736 |01:04:36 ~-~-> 01:04:39 |eventually, after a certain number of days, allow me to afford me a | ||
738 | |737 |01:04:39 ~-~-> 01:04:45 |withdrawal. Okay, that's wonderful, but as someone that trades, I'm more | ||
739 | |738 |01:04:45 ~-~-> 01:04:49 |interested in how people think and how they conduct themselves, and if they're | ||
740 | |739 |01:04:49 ~-~-> 01:04:53 |not going to be willing to admit when they don't know something and they are | ||
741 | |740 |01:04:53 ~-~-> 01:04:57 |allowing their personality and ego, and I have probably the largest ego on the | ||
742 | |741 |01:04:57 ~-~-> 01:05:00 |internet, because it's part of who I am as a character, I. Have to present that. | ||
743 | |742 |01:05:00 ~-~-> 01:05:04 |That's, I want you to hate me first and then come in and try to prove me wrong. | ||
744 | |743 |01:05:05 ~-~-> 01:05:10 |That's my whole spit. It's, that's what I've always done. I play a heel, but | ||
745 | |744 |01:05:10 ~-~-> 01:05:13 |really, I'm a baby face in the industry, like I want everybody to do. Well, I | ||
746 | |745 |01:05:13 ~-~-> 01:05:17 |don't hate everyone or hate anyone. They do certain things that get in my | ||
747 | |746 |01:05:17 ~-~-> 01:05:21 |mirrors. They go too far with personal shit. But otherwise, I mean, I don't | ||
748 | |747 |01:05:21 ~-~-> 01:05:27 |have a vendetta against anybody. So you as a trader, you as an influencer, you | ||
749 | |748 |01:05:27 ~-~-> 01:05:35 |as a student. You have to, you have to afford yourself the permission, you have | ||
750 | |749 |01:05:35 ~-~-> 01:05:39 |to grant yourself permission that there's going to be times where you know | ||
751 | |750 |01:05:39 ~-~-> 01:05:44 |what it might do this, but I'm I'm just not technically going to take a trade. | ||
752 | |751 |01:05:44 ~-~-> 01:05:48 |I'm not going to do it. I'm going to sit still because it just doesn't feel | ||
753 | |752 |01:05:48 ~-~-> 01:05:53 |right. And I'd rather err on the side of caution than go out there and just roll | ||
754 | |753 |01:05:53 ~-~-> 01:05:59 |the dice. And if I'm right, I can't feel good about that. But most of you, either | ||
755 | |754 |01:05:59 ~-~-> 01:06:02 |influencers or trying to be an influencer, you'll grab onto that and | ||
756 | |755 |01:06:02 ~-~-> 01:06:05 |you'll pony it around in front of everybody. Look what I did. Look what I | ||
757 | |756 |01:06:05 ~-~-> 01:06:09 |did. Yeah, bro, look at me. And that's also feeding yourself toxicity, because | ||
758 | |757 |01:06:09 ~-~-> 01:06:12 |you know down in your heart that you were not comfortable taking that trade. | ||
759 | |758 |01:06:12 ~-~-> 01:06:15 |You just did it because you have an audience watching you. When you are | ||
760 | |759 |01:06:15 ~-~-> 01:06:19 |trading in the privacy of your own office, your own home, whatever you're | ||
761 | |760 |01:06:19 ~-~-> 01:06:23 |trading, there's nobody there to inspire, and there's nobody there to | ||
762 | |761 |01:06:23 ~-~-> 01:06:28 |impress, and there's certainly no one there to draw your tears when you do | ||
763 | |762 |01:06:28 ~-~-> 01:06:32 |shit wrong. So you might as well just start doing things with that perspective | ||
764 | |763 |01:06:32 ~-~-> 01:06:38 |in mind and be responsible. Start on the responsible foot first. That means, how | ||
765 | |764 |01:06:38 ~-~-> 01:06:44 |do I present myself a way, a way or a manner of going into this where I'm not | ||
766 | |765 |01:06:44 ~-~-> 01:06:50 |openly inviting ruin. How can I avoid all that stuff and by expecting the | ||
767 | |766 |01:06:50 ~-~-> 01:06:55 |market to behave a certain way, waiting for it to be better in terms of | ||
768 | |767 |01:06:55 ~-~-> 01:06:58 |technicals, just because you see it delivering where we said it was going to | ||
769 | |768 |01:06:58 ~-~-> 01:07:02 |go today doesn't mean that that's a day that you should be as a new student, you | ||
770 | |769 |01:07:02 ~-~-> 01:07:07 |that you should be trading it. It takes a lot more experience, and that's | ||
771 | |770 |01:07:07 ~-~-> 01:07:11 |something that you get by watching the charts, spending time with with me over | ||
772 | |771 |01:07:11 ~-~-> 01:07:15 |live charts, so that we can see, oh, I can see what he's talking about. It is | ||
773 | |772 |01:07:15 ~-~-> 01:07:18 |going back and forth in here, but ultimately it goes to where I say it's | ||
774 | |773 |01:07:18 ~-~-> 01:07:22 |going to go. But you might not have the ability to be in the trade at that time, | ||
775 | |774 |01:07:22 ~-~-> 01:07:25 |because you got into it earlier, or you got stopped out, and then you're in | ||
776 | |775 |01:07:25 ~-~-> 01:07:28 |drawdown, and you went in there. Try to do a little bit more leverage, because | ||
777 | |776 |01:07:28 ~-~-> 01:07:32 |all you have to do now is get half of them you just lost on to get back to | ||
778 | |777 |01:07:32 ~-~-> 01:07:37 |break even. You gotta stop thinking about break even. Stop thinking about, I | ||
779 | |778 |01:07:37 ~-~-> 01:07:40 |gotta make my money back. Get the back. Break even. You didn't start trading to | ||
780 | |779 |01:07:40 ~-~-> 01:07:47 |be break even. Nobody gets in this business to say, I want to make nothing | ||
781 | |780 |01:07:47 ~-~-> 01:07:51 |but pay commissions. I want to be break even. I want to have the same amount of | ||
782 | |781 |01:07:51 ~-~-> 01:07:57 |money I had in my account when I first started. Nobody. Nobody does that. But | ||
783 | |782 |01:07:57 ~-~-> 01:08:01 |something happens when you start doing things impulsively, where you lose sight | ||
784 | |783 |01:08:01 ~-~-> 01:08:10 |of what you're doing, and you fixate all of your concerns, your fears and your | ||
785 | |784 |01:08:10 ~-~-> 01:08:14 |hopes all around just getting back to, if I could just get my account back to | ||
786 | |785 |01:08:14 ~-~-> 01:08:18 |where it was before I took this losing trade, or before I started this losing | ||
787 | |786 |01:08:18 ~-~-> 01:08:18 |streak. | ||
788 | |787 |01:08:21 ~-~-> 01:08:26 |If you stop thinking that way and say, Okay, I feel that impulse, I you have to | ||
789 | |788 |01:08:26 ~-~-> 01:08:31 |journal and say, right now I am wrestling with trying to overcome a | ||
790 | |789 |01:08:31 ~-~-> 01:08:36 |losing trade or a drawdown. So therefore I acknowledge that I am feeling these | ||
791 | |790 |01:08:36 ~-~-> 01:08:41 |impulses, but I'm reminding myself and encouraging myself that I am not in | ||
792 | |791 |01:08:41 ~-~-> 01:08:46 |trading to just simply try to get back to the state of comfort. I am | ||
793 | |792 |01:08:46 ~-~-> 01:08:50 |comfortable. I have a model that I trust, that I did back testing on I did | ||
794 | |793 |01:08:50 ~-~-> 01:08:53 |not rush into live trading with real money. I am comfortable in my own skin. | ||
795 | |794 |01:08:53 ~-~-> 01:08:58 |I am home right where I'm at trading, so I'm not in any emergency. There's no | ||
796 | |795 |01:08:58 ~-~-> 01:09:01 |emergency. I don't owe anybody money. I'm not in debt with the mafia, so I | ||
797 | |796 |01:09:01 ~-~-> 01:09:04 |don't have to get this money back real money back real quick and put it in | ||
798 | |797 |01:09:04 ~-~-> 01:09:07 |their hands. Your life is not in danger because you're in drawdown. You have to | ||
799 | |798 |01:09:07 ~-~-> 01:09:12 |encourage yourself, remind yourself that you're in this to make money. And if | ||
800 | |799 |01:09:12 ~-~-> 01:09:15 |you're constantly counting what you have and what you don't have, what you have, | ||
801 | |800 |01:09:15 ~-~-> 01:09:20 |what you don't have, you're going to drive yourself nuts, and that means | ||
802 | |801 |01:09:20 ~-~-> 01:09:23 |you're going to be emotionally trading. You're going to you're going to be | ||
803 | |802 |01:09:23 ~-~-> 01:09:28 |trading your P, L, your equity curve, or your equity slope. Your equity slope | ||
804 | |803 |01:09:28 ~-~-> 01:09:32 |will be the catalyst for why you're trying to pick a trade, because you want | ||
805 | |804 |01:09:32 ~-~-> 01:09:36 |to try to get out of that as soon as you can. And if you're one of those prop | ||
806 | |805 |01:09:36 ~-~-> 01:09:41 |trading guys or gals, you're thinking, I don't care if I blow up, because it's | ||
807 | |806 |01:09:41 ~-~-> 01:09:46 |just cheaper for me to reset. It's nothing. It's just a reset. And that's | ||
808 | |807 |01:09:46 ~-~-> 01:09:51 |why you're doing 100 plus resets. That's why you're doing 30 resets in the last | ||
809 | |808 |01:09:51 ~-~-> 01:09:56 |six weeks, because you've already given yourself permission. You've afforded | ||
810 | |809 |01:09:56 ~-~-> 01:10:01 |yourself the permission to fail consistently. Because all it is is an | ||
811 | |810 |01:10:01 ~-~-> 01:10:08 |easy reset. Thank God the reset buttons there. What? How the hell is that sound | ||
812 | |811 |01:10:08 ~-~-> 01:10:11 |logic? How is that something that anybody should say? You know what? | ||
813 | |812 |01:10:11 ~-~-> 01:10:16 |That's the mentality I'm going to adopt. But yet it happens to majority of people | ||
814 | |813 |01:10:16 ~-~-> 01:10:21 |in trading. Why is that? It's a compensation for the pain and discomfort | ||
815 | |814 |01:10:21 ~-~-> 01:10:26 |you have to have something to distract yourself from what you're feeling and | ||
816 | |815 |01:10:26 ~-~-> 01:10:30 |what you're thinking, and I'm trying to teach you, just like I was teaching my | ||
817 | |816 |01:10:30 ~-~-> 01:10:36 |paid students, that some of them simply didn't want to hear it. They didn't want | ||
818 | |817 |01:10:36 ~-~-> 01:10:39 |to hear it, and they don't realize that there is a way to recognize when the | ||
819 | |818 |01:10:39 ~-~-> 01:10:44 |market's going to be reluctant to go where you want to go, and you have to | ||
820 | |819 |01:10:44 ~-~-> 01:10:51 |recognize that, and then you have to wait or do nothing. And there's nothing | ||
821 | |820 |01:10:51 ~-~-> 01:11:00 |wrong with doing nothing. It's better, and it's much more mature as a trader, | ||
822 | |821 |01:11:00 ~-~-> 01:11:03 |for you to recognize when you you might be a good trader. I've considered myself | ||
823 | |822 |01:11:03 ~-~-> 01:11:06 |the best fucking trade on this planet, and I got no shame in saying it. That's | ||
824 | |823 |01:11:06 ~-~-> 01:11:10 |not me being egotistical. That's just the facts. I am absolutely fucking best | ||
825 | |824 |01:11:10 ~-~-> 01:11:13 |on this on this planet, spinning around. Hey, nobody's gonna trade better doing | ||
826 | |825 |01:11:13 ~-~-> 01:11:17 |and I've invited it, and nobody's doing it. I will show you every fucking entry | ||
827 | |826 |01:11:17 ~-~-> 01:11:22 |mechanism, and I will run circles around you. But just because of that, I know my | ||
828 | |827 |01:11:22 ~-~-> 01:11:26 |limitations. I know what the market's doing. I know when it's likely to hurt | ||
829 | |828 |01:11:26 ~-~-> 01:11:32 |me, even with what I know, because it's simply going to say not yet or not | ||
830 | |829 |01:11:32 ~-~-> 01:11:41 |today, not right now. And I can sit out here and tell you I'm going to sit still | ||
831 | |830 |01:11:41 ~-~-> 01:11:47 |and I'm completely comfortable in my skin. Little ankle biters, nose miners | ||
832 | |831 |01:11:47 ~-~-> 01:11:50 |out there that like to troll. They'll say, Oh, he doesn't know what he's | ||
833 | |832 |01:11:50 ~-~-> 01:11:55 |doing. But I guarantee you, if you showed your P L today, if you even have | ||
834 | |833 |01:11:55 ~-~-> 01:12:00 |money or an account at all, you've lost money today, and you probably were | ||
835 | |834 |01:12:00 ~-~-> 01:12:05 |stressed out, freaking out, or you did something that wasn't even your model. | ||
836 | |835 |01:12:05 ~-~-> 01:12:08 |You just want to do something that was contrary. So you can go on social media | ||
837 | |836 |01:12:08 ~-~-> 01:12:11 |and say, Look at this. I'm not here to do that. If you want to measure your | ||
838 | |837 |01:12:11 ~-~-> 01:12:15 |dick, I'm out here. I'll weigh mine on the table. It's no problem. But none of | ||
839 | |838 |01:12:15 ~-~-> 01:12:19 |them guys are doing it, but they'll come back and they'll give you all this stuff | ||
840 | |839 |01:12:19 ~-~-> 01:12:23 |to discourage you or make you second guess it. I'm here telling you how to | ||
841 | |840 |01:12:24 ~-~-> 01:12:29 |engage this, how to see it for what it really is, and when it's clean, price | ||
842 | |841 |01:12:29 ~-~-> 01:12:33 |action, when it's going to be real fluid, it's real easy. It's easy to see | ||
843 | |842 |01:12:33 ~-~-> 01:12:37 |the setups and they just run. That's what you'll see. And spot those | ||
844 | |843 |01:12:37 ~-~-> 01:12:42 |conditions easier, and you'll be able to recognize them by studying when the | ||
845 | |844 |01:12:42 ~-~-> 01:12:49 |market's like this, knowing when you're going to be walking in quagmire, like a | ||
846 | |845 |01:12:49 ~-~-> 01:12:56 |swamp. The fastest guy in the world can't run his his speed in ankle deep | ||
847 | |846 |01:12:56 ~-~-> 01:13:01 |water or mud. It just ain't going to happen. Anybody else would be running | ||
848 | |847 |01:13:01 ~-~-> 01:13:07 |basically the same speed because they're all playing in the same field. Well, | ||
849 | |848 |01:13:07 ~-~-> 01:13:10 |we're all trading the same market right now. Everybody's seeing the same high | ||
850 | |849 |01:13:10 ~-~-> 01:13:14 |and low. Everyone's seeing the same fluctuation in price action. But not | ||
851 | |850 |01:13:14 ~-~-> 01:13:18 |everybody has the same expectation. Not everybody is out here trying to run a | ||
852 | |851 |01:13:18 ~-~-> 01:13:27 |marathon in it. I'm not, and I have a great deal of affinity for the people | ||
853 | |852 |01:13:27 ~-~-> 01:13:31 |that are online, that do stream, that are honest, and they say, You know what? | ||
854 | |853 |01:13:33 ~-~-> 01:13:36 |I just don't feel like I should do anything right now. I'm going to stay | ||
855 | |854 |01:13:36 ~-~-> 01:13:41 |with the stream. I'll, I'll give some commentary, but I don't trust myself in | ||
856 | |855 |01:13:41 ~-~-> 01:13:46 |this environment. You know what that is? That's maturity. That's someone that has | ||
857 | |856 |01:13:46 ~-~-> 01:13:52 |done the work they've done themselves in in the past. They've learned from that | ||
858 | |857 |01:13:52 ~-~-> 01:13:55 |experience, and now they're being responsible as a trader. They're being | ||
859 | |858 |01:13:55 ~-~-> 01:13:59 |responsible with their audience. They're being responsible with their own | ||
860 | |859 |01:13:59 ~-~-> 01:14:07 |actions. Verse like, contrast that with the the opposite. Well, we're doing this | ||
861 | |860 |01:14:07 ~-~-> 01:14:13 |show here. We're here to entertain you. And you know what, if something happens, | ||
862 | |861 |01:14:14 ~-~-> 01:14:20 |we all can just go and pay for another reset. It's time to take some inventory. | ||
863 | |862 |01:14:21 ~-~-> 01:14:26 |Who's influencing you? How are they influencing you? Are you better for the | ||
864 | |863 |01:14:26 ~-~-> 01:14:31 |influence they have instilled into you, or the influence they have hold over you | ||
865 | |864 |01:14:31 ~-~-> 01:14:41 |with? Are you more improved as a traitor by allowing these individuals to | ||
866 | |865 |01:14:41 ~-~-> 01:14:45 |influence you, or are they actually holding you back? Are they encouraging | ||
867 | |866 |01:14:45 ~-~-> 01:14:49 |bad habits that you can't recognize? These are the same people they're going | ||
868 | |867 |01:14:49 ~-~-> 01:14:54 |to tell you they don't journal cuz journal takes effort. Journaling takes | ||
869 | |868 |01:14:54 ~-~-> 01:14:58 |accountability into question, and you have to be accountable if you're not | ||
870 | |869 |01:14:58 ~-~-> 01:15:03 |going to be accountable to your. Self, who's going to be accountable for you, | ||
871 | |870 |01:15:03 ~-~-> 01:15:07 |your balance is that's the one that you'll never be able to argue with that | ||
872 | |871 |01:15:07 ~-~-> 01:15:11 |the balance in your equity, the amount of money that you've made or lost, and | ||
873 | |872 |01:15:11 ~-~-> 01:15:17 |what you have right now, what's left. That's who you're accountable to. But | ||
874 | |873 |01:15:17 ~-~-> 01:15:21 |you put blinders onto it. Oh, you know, I can just reset. I'll just put more | ||
875 | |874 |01:15:21 ~-~-> 01:15:26 |money in it. How long do you want to how long you want to keep doing it before | ||
876 | |875 |01:15:26 ~-~-> 01:15:30 |you start getting better? You have to recognize when these odds are stacked | ||
877 | |876 |01:15:30 ~-~-> 01:15:37 |against you. Everything in the market is there for us to see, but sometimes, | ||
878 | |877 |01:15:38 ~-~-> 01:15:44 |sometimes these opportunities are cleverly disguised in possibilities. | ||
879 | |878 |01:15:46 ~-~-> 01:15:51 |That means that you can see it. It's like that carrot dangling in front of | ||
880 | |879 |01:15:52 ~-~-> 01:15:56 |you that that horse or that donkey, it'll keep running towards that carrot, | ||
881 | |880 |01:15:56 ~-~-> 01:16:01 |not realizing, because it's stupid, that it's never going to get it, but they | ||
882 | |881 |01:16:01 ~-~-> 01:16:04 |keep chasing after it. You're doing the same thing with your trading because you | ||
883 | |882 |01:16:04 ~-~-> 01:16:07 |don't recognize what you're doing. You're stuck on the treadmill. You're | ||
884 | |883 |01:16:07 ~-~-> 01:16:10 |not gaining any ground, you're just spinning the wheels. The only people | ||
885 | |884 |01:16:10 ~-~-> 01:16:13 |that's making money are these funded account firms that are getting resets, | ||
886 | |885 |01:16:13 ~-~-> 01:16:16 |and the people that run their affiliate links, they're getting paid back in | ||
887 | |886 |01:16:16 ~-~-> 01:16:22 |commission and or the brokers getting commission costs, fees, and you're | ||
888 | |887 |01:16:22 ~-~-> 01:16:25 |making nothing. So you gotta stop thinking about, I gotta get back to | ||
889 | |888 |01:16:25 ~-~-> 01:16:30 |break even. You didn't start to be a break even trader. There's nothing wrong | ||
890 | |889 |01:16:30 ~-~-> 01:16:35 |with being a break even trader. You know where you make a little bit of money and | ||
891 | |890 |01:16:35 ~-~-> 01:16:38 |you lose it when you go down a little bit and you come back to break even, | ||
892 | |891 |01:16:38 ~-~-> 01:16:41 |just by the natural progress of you you doing what you're doing and while you're | ||
893 | |892 |01:16:41 ~-~-> 01:16:47 |learning, but that's not what you started. And you have to recognize how | ||
894 | |893 |01:16:47 ~-~-> 01:16:51 |you're going to blow it. You're going to do that initially by how you think and | ||
895 | |894 |01:16:51 ~-~-> 01:16:56 |how you behave and what impulses that you submit yourself to, and that's what | ||
896 | |895 |01:16:56 ~-~-> 01:17:00 |journaling helps you recognize. And you have to be honest and be sweet to | ||
897 | |896 |01:17:00 ~-~-> 01:17:05 |yourself with with positive self talk. That means you're counseling yourself | ||
898 | |897 |01:17:06 ~-~-> 01:17:10 |treat yourself as that inner child that you're trying to nurture, not beat up or | ||
899 | |898 |01:17:10 ~-~-> 01:17:16 |abuse. And the other half is how you're going to fall victim in the marketplace. | ||
900 | |899 |01:17:16 ~-~-> 01:17:20 |So when there's going to be a day where it's going to probably be a little bit | ||
901 | |900 |01:17:20 ~-~-> 01:17:26 |more reluctant to behave like you would like it to do you have a choice. You can | ||
902 | |901 |01:17:26 ~-~-> 01:17:30 |sit in front of it, take Read It For experience, and then be thankful that | ||
903 | |902 |01:17:30 ~-~-> 01:17:34 |you didn't put real money or execution behind it that causes you harm, or turn | ||
904 | |903 |01:17:34 ~-~-> 01:17:38 |the charts off and come back after the market closes and be rewarded that you | ||
905 | |904 |01:17:38 ~-~-> 01:17:45 |had the discipline, the maturity, the foresight to know that. I know that | ||
906 | |905 |01:17:45 ~-~-> 01:17:48 |there was people out there that did something in this market today, and they | ||
907 | |906 |01:17:48 ~-~-> 01:17:51 |got hurt, and they're frustrated because they want the market to run higher. They | ||
908 | |907 |01:17:51 ~-~-> 01:17:54 |want the market to run lower. And it's been back and forth, retracement back | ||
909 | |908 |01:17:54 ~-~-> 01:17:57 |and forth, retracements. And it's not really, it's not really moving a whole | ||
910 | |909 |01:17:57 ~-~-> 01:18:01 |lot. There's setups here. There absolutely are setups here, but I'm | ||
911 | |910 |01:18:01 ~-~-> 01:18:06 |trying to remind you, as a beginning student or a novice that's maybe been | ||
912 | |911 |01:18:06 ~-~-> 01:18:10 |around me for a year or so, you're still not equipped to trade in environments | ||
913 | |912 |01:18:10 ~-~-> 01:18:14 |like this. If you made money, you might think to yourself, oh, you not me. I see | ||
914 | |913 |01:18:14 ~-~-> 01:18:17 |because look at this trade, and you maybe probably already sent me a tweet | ||
915 | |914 |01:18:17 ~-~-> 01:18:18 |saying what you did. | ||
916 | |915 |01:18:19 ~-~-> 01:18:25 |I don't congratulate anybody in there, because I'm trying to remind you all as | ||
917 | |916 |01:18:25 ~-~-> 01:18:31 |a collection of my students, that it's nothing wrong about you having seen this | ||
918 | |917 |01:18:31 ~-~-> 01:18:36 |day initially as an opportunity and then fell victim to it. That's actually good. | ||
919 | |918 |01:18:36 ~-~-> 01:18:40 |Now you have something to measure your future expectations against. Now you | ||
920 | |919 |01:18:40 ~-~-> 01:18:46 |have a I touched a burning hot pot. I got burned. I don't need to do that 17 | ||
921 | |920 |01:18:46 ~-~-> 01:18:53 |times to realize doing that is going to cause me harm. So the takeaway is this, | ||
922 | |921 |01:18:53 ~-~-> 01:19:00 |we can see that the gap higher in the opening at 930 was higher than the price | ||
923 | |922 |01:19:00 ~-~-> 01:19:06 |at 414 yesterday. That means the initial bias during the opening range is | ||
924 | |923 |01:19:06 ~-~-> 01:19:12 |bearish. We know that 70% of time, half of that opening range gap gets filled or | ||
925 | |924 |01:19:12 ~-~-> 01:19:17 |treated to in that first 30 minutes, between 930 and 10 o'clock in the | ||
926 | |925 |01:19:17 ~-~-> 01:19:23 |morning, Eastern Time on a Friday. We know that there's a likelihood that the | ||
927 | |926 |01:19:23 ~-~-> 01:19:27 |market will want to retrace 20 to 30% of the weekly range I said I was going to | ||
928 | |927 |01:19:27 ~-~-> 01:19:28 |show you that. So I | ||
929 | |928 |01:19:44 ~-~-> 01:19:49 |All right, so we have a weekly candlestick. You see that song up here | ||
930 | |929 |01:19:49 ~-~-> 01:19:57 |upper left hand corner? Yes. That means every huh, yes, you lose your voice. The | ||
931 | |930 |01:19:57 ~-~-> 01:20:03 |let's take all the annotations off real quick. Okay, so this is the weekly range | ||
932 | |931 |01:20:03 ~-~-> 01:20:12 |for this individual week we're in right now. If we take the low, draw it all to | ||
933 | |932 |01:20:12 ~-~-> 01:20:18 |the highest, high, go into your fib settings you don't need to have. So what | ||
934 | |933 |01:20:18 ~-~-> 01:20:24 |you're gonna do is you're gonna take the 0.25 that I have here. Whenever I'm | ||
935 | |934 |01:20:24 ~-~-> 01:20:31 |doing the TGIF measurement, I just take the five off and then toggle the 0.3 so | ||
936 | |935 |01:20:31 ~-~-> 01:20:35 |what that's going to show me is 20% and 30% respectively on the range. And | ||
937 | |936 |01:20:35 ~-~-> 01:20:40 |here's 20% retracing from the highest high the week, and here's 30% of the | ||
938 | |937 |01:20:40 ~-~-> 01:20:44 |range. So having this on the chart now we can go into | ||
939 | |938 |01:20:51 ~-~-> 01:21:05 |let's do a 15 minute time frame. So we opened up here and the 20,004 21 level, | ||
940 | |939 |01:21:06 ~-~-> 01:21:11 |that's this one right here. We opened here on a Friday. We had a gap higher | ||
941 | |940 |01:21:11 ~-~-> 01:21:16 |opening. So right away, you already know that the initial bias is for the first | ||
942 | |941 |01:21:16 ~-~-> 01:21:20 |30 minutes, it's going to go down to half of the gap. So half of that gap | ||
943 | |942 |01:21:20 ~-~-> 01:21:21 |over here. | ||
944 | |943 |01:21:29 ~-~-> 01:21:37 |That's not correct. Let me. Let me do this one minute chart. Very good trading | ||
945 | |944 |01:21:37 ~-~-> 01:21:40 |hours. There we are. | ||
946 | |945 |01:21:47 ~-~-> 01:21:52 |And now in this bit, we're just going to highlight the midpoint the 50 level, and | ||
947 | |946 |01:21:52 ~-~-> 01:21:56 |we take these off because we're not measuring the weekly range that we have | ||
948 | |947 |01:21:56 ~-~-> 01:22:02 |here. So we have the higher gap opening here at 930 So right away, we know in | ||
949 | |948 |01:22:02 ~-~-> 01:22:06 |our mind, our expectation is it could, for the first few minutes, flurry a | ||
950 | |949 |01:22:06 ~-~-> 01:22:09 |little bit higher, but ultimately it's going to draw to that level there. | ||
951 | |950 |01:22:10 ~-~-> 01:22:14 |Because as soon as we get that first opening price at 930 that's a static | ||
952 | |951 |01:22:14 ~-~-> 01:22:18 |Price Limit, a static price point. It's not moving. It's not dynamic. It's not | ||
953 | |952 |01:22:18 ~-~-> 01:22:22 |fluctuating around. We can still make a higher high on the day in the first few | ||
954 | |953 |01:22:22 ~-~-> 01:22:26 |minutes of the opening range. But that constant, which is the opening price at | ||
955 | |954 |01:22:26 ~-~-> 01:22:32 |930 relative to yesterday's 414, we had that measurement that tells us this is | ||
956 | |955 |01:22:32 ~-~-> 01:22:36 |where 70% of time that price is getting hit in the in the first 30 minutes. | ||
957 | |956 |01:22:36 ~-~-> 01:22:39 |Sometimes it might take a little bit longer than that, but statistically, | ||
958 | |957 |01:22:40 ~-~-> 01:22:46 |they're all seeing it now. And I promise you, if you have that mentality and | ||
959 | |958 |01:22:46 ~-~-> 01:22:51 |expectation, is going to serve you well. So if you have, for instance, this here, | ||
960 | |959 |01:22:51 ~-~-> 01:22:59 |we can then go into a woman or the i | ||
961 | |960 |01:23:11 ~-~-> 01:23:12 |It's 930-931-3233. | ||
962 | |961 |01:23:17 ~-~-> 01:23:25 |34 so 34 has your first fair Vega there on the moment chart. So we we create | ||
963 | |962 |01:23:25 ~-~-> 01:23:31 |that fair Vega trade down, back up. You can be short there with the expectation | ||
964 | |963 |01:23:31 ~-~-> 01:23:37 |that it's going to go to the mid gap. So you have a 7% built in advantage that | ||
965 | |964 |01:23:37 ~-~-> 01:23:44 |that trade there is likely to pan out. Add to it. It's Friday. TGI, thank God, | ||
966 | |965 |01:23:44 ~-~-> 01:23:50 |it's Friday. So that means we also have the 20% level. See, watch what I'm I'm | ||
967 | |966 |01:23:50 ~-~-> 01:23:53 |taking my pressure. I'm laying it right on top that blue line. Look at the price | ||
968 | |967 |01:23:53 ~-~-> 01:23:58 |on the right hand side. See it. It's also showing it on the weekly chart on | ||
969 | |968 |01:23:58 ~-~-> 01:24:05 |the left hand side, see I'm putting it right there. So it's 421, and 421 on the | ||
970 | |969 |01:24:05 ~-~-> 01:24:12 |one minute chart. See it? Yes. So that's 20% of the weekly range. So TGIF is, if | ||
971 | |970 |01:24:12 ~-~-> 01:24:17 |we're bearish, we're expecting 20% to 30% of the weekly range to be drawn down | ||
972 | |971 |01:24:17 ~-~-> 01:24:21 |to when it's been a bullish week, when it's been a bearish week, we're | ||
973 | |972 |01:24:21 ~-~-> 01:24:26 |expecting the price to retrace higher to 20 to 30% of the weekly range. Okay, you | ||
974 | |973 |01:24:27 ~-~-> 01:24:32 |understand, yes, right? So now, because we have an opening gap here, we already | ||
975 | |974 |01:24:32 ~-~-> 01:24:36 |naturally have a built in 70% likelihood that it's going to trade down here. So | ||
976 | |975 |01:24:36 ~-~-> 01:24:40 |what can you use this level for a partial so if you got short here, | ||
977 | |976 |01:24:40 ~-~-> 01:24:43 |there's going to be exercises I put you through where as soon as you get an | ||
978 | |977 |01:24:43 ~-~-> 01:24:49 |opening price like this, you're going to sell short. You're going to use a 3030 | ||
979 | |978 |01:24:49 ~-~-> 01:24:55 |handle stop loss and see which one gets hit first. These are all things that I | ||
980 | |979 |01:24:55 ~-~-> 01:25:01 |did in the marketplace when I was using currency futures. You. I would use it | ||
981 | |980 |01:25:01 ~-~-> 01:25:04 |with the British pound futures contracted Deutsche Mark was doesn't | ||
982 | |981 |01:25:04 ~-~-> 01:25:13 |trade anymore, the Japanese yen and Canadian ballot. Those were my com dots | ||
983 | |982 |01:25:13 ~-~-> 01:25:18 |that I would commodity dollars. I would use this, that mechanism, to build my | ||
984 | |983 |01:25:18 ~-~-> 01:25:23 |initial day trading with, with this idea, because in currency futures, there | ||
985 | |984 |01:25:23 ~-~-> 01:25:28 |would be gap openings. And I was using this like this. This is my criteria when | ||
986 | |985 |01:25:28 ~-~-> 01:25:36 |I was trading currency futures. So because it works in universal markets, | ||
987 | |986 |01:25:36 ~-~-> 01:25:40 |where you can see the difference between where it was yesterday and where it is | ||
988 | |987 |01:25:40 ~-~-> 01:25:44 |today, even if it trades 24 hours now, some markets, you still refer back to | ||
989 | |988 |01:25:44 ~-~-> 01:25:48 |the same price points that I'm teaching, and you'll see that there's a gap, even | ||
990 | |989 |01:25:48 ~-~-> 01:25:52 |though there isn't a technically visible gap, like we have regular trading hours | ||
991 | |990 |01:25:52 ~-~-> 01:25:56 |and electronic trading hours in the index features here. There are markets | ||
992 | |991 |01:25:56 ~-~-> 01:26:01 |that don't have that, like for us, it doesn't change. It go back and use the | ||
993 | |992 |01:26:01 ~-~-> 01:26:07 |same reference points, and you'll have a simulation that would be used the same | ||
994 | |993 |01:26:07 ~-~-> 01:26:11 |way, as if it was a gap there. So these are all things I can talk about, where | ||
995 | |994 |01:26:12 ~-~-> 01:26:15 |things that aren't technically in the chart, I'm I'm looking at it that way, | ||
996 | |995 |01:26:15 ~-~-> 01:26:19 |where everybody else would not even think of it. It's not even it's not in | ||
997 | |996 |01:26:19 ~-~-> 01:26:25 |their their expectation of what would be reasonable to seeing, like chasing | ||
998 | |997 |01:26:25 ~-~-> 01:26:30 |information based on that type of perspective, when there's a market where | ||
999 | |998 |01:26:30 ~-~-> 01:26:35 |it doesn't have electronic trading or record trading gaps, well, the question | ||
1000 | |999 |01:26:35 ~-~-> 01:26:39 |is, is, well, how is this useful to me? ICT, I trade Forex, and we don't have | ||
1001 | |1000 |01:26:39 ~-~-> 01:26:44 |that you do, because these reference points are referred to by the algorithm. | ||
1002 | |1001 |01:26:44 ~-~-> 01:26:48 |Just because you don't see a gap in your chart or your platform doesn't mean that | ||
1003 | |1002 |01:26:48 ~-~-> 01:26:52 |the algorithm is not referring at the same price points by time. And when you | ||
1004 | |1003 |01:26:52 ~-~-> 01:26:55 |start doing that, it's like, oh, wow, I didn't I didn't see that, right? That's | ||
1005 | |1004 |01:26:55 ~-~-> 01:26:59 |why all of you are losing money. That's why you're all clueless. But you have | ||
1006 | |1005 |01:26:59 ~-~-> 01:27:03 |built in advance to 70% being short rate from the open from the opening bell | ||
1007 | |1006 |01:27:04 ~-~-> 01:27:09 |trading down to 70% likelihood of that midday and filled so you have a built in | ||
1008 | |1007 |01:27:09 ~-~-> 01:27:14 |advantage for 30 minutes. You have a sweet spot where you have so many things | ||
1009 | |1008 |01:27:14 ~-~-> 01:27:19 |in your favor, versus in contrast that with trading anything outside of this | ||
1010 | |1009 |01:27:19 ~-~-> 01:27:23 |you don't know, like, you don't know, you don't have any data that suggests | ||
1011 | |1010 |01:27:23 ~-~-> 01:27:26 |that that fucking bull flag you think is in the shark is going to do anything. It | ||
1012 | |1011 |01:27:26 ~-~-> 01:27:30 |doesn't mean just because you see a price pattern, it's going to do | ||
1013 | |1012 |01:27:30 ~-~-> 01:27:34 |something. That is the absolute asinine thing that I fell victim to for years in | ||
1014 | |1013 |01:27:34 ~-~-> 01:27:38 |beginning. And there's people coming into this market all the time, and they | ||
1015 | |1014 |01:27:38 ~-~-> 01:27:42 |buy into that bullshit, and they think, Oh, well, you know the books tell me | ||
1016 | |1015 |01:27:42 ~-~-> 01:27:46 |this ICT and you're foolish. That's not in the book, so therefore it can't be | ||
1017 | |1016 |01:27:46 ~-~-> 01:27:53 |real. It's crazy, but you have a 70% chance is here from the opening bell. | ||
1018 | |1017 |01:27:53 ~-~-> 01:27:59 |But then you have 20% a weekly range. So this could be your target for first | ||
1019 | |1018 |01:27:59 ~-~-> 01:28:03 |partial aim for this. But what happens if it just goes there? Is it likely to | ||
1020 | |1019 |01:28:03 ~-~-> 01:28:07 |stop there? No How far can it go? Well, you got 30% right there on the weekly | ||
1021 | |1020 |01:28:07 ~-~-> 01:28:15 |range. So TGIF is giving you what partial target the market comes right | ||
1022 | |1021 |01:28:15 ~-~-> 01:28:19 |back up to 30% of the weekly range. Isn't that interesting? Isn't that | ||
1023 | |1022 |01:28:19 ~-~-> 01:28:22 |interesting how that happened? It's actually happening inside of a fair | ||
1024 | |1023 |01:28:22 ~-~-> 01:28:26 |value gap as well. And then you might the market rolls over one more time into | ||
1025 | |1024 |01:28:26 ~-~-> 01:28:31 |an inefficiency there and breaks down. So what you're doing is is you're trying | ||
1026 | |1025 |01:28:31 ~-~-> 01:28:38 |to frame conditions where you have everything in your favor, and it's hard | ||
1027 | |1026 |01:28:38 ~-~-> 01:28:43 |to find something that would be opposing it. Does that make sense? Yes, there are | ||
1028 | |1027 |01:28:43 ~-~-> 01:28:47 |going to be times where what you're trying to do is going to be met with | ||
1029 | |1028 |01:28:48 ~-~-> 01:28:51 |opposition, where price is simply just not going to it's not going to behave. | ||
1030 | |1029 |01:28:51 ~-~-> 01:28:54 |It's not going to bend to your will. It's not going to bend to your model. | ||
1031 | |1030 |01:28:54 ~-~-> 01:28:58 |It's not going to bend to your time being in the chart and wanting to take a | ||
1032 | |1031 |01:28:58 ~-~-> 01:29:02 |trade because this is the time you're off that week, at that day or that time, | ||
1033 | |1032 |01:29:02 ~-~-> 01:29:06 |or you got up out of your normal sleep schedule to trade this because it's not | ||
1034 | |1033 |01:29:06 ~-~-> 01:29:12 |something you normally do. So therefore you have more expectation or more demand | ||
1035 | |1034 |01:29:13 ~-~-> 01:29:18 |out of the market and out of what you're trying to do than any other time. So | ||
1036 | |1035 |01:29:18 ~-~-> 01:29:22 |you're creating these hostile conditions where you have to perform. The market | ||
1037 | |1036 |01:29:22 ~-~-> 01:29:27 |has to do what you want to do. So you've emotionally charged everything. You've | ||
1038 | |1037 |01:29:27 ~-~-> 01:29:31 |expected the market to bend to your will. You've expected your model to be | ||
1039 | |1038 |01:29:31 ~-~-> 01:29:34 |perfect. You expected yourself to make money. And then you have a market | ||
1040 | |1039 |01:29:34 ~-~-> 01:29:38 |environment like today, where it's just saying, Yeah, I'll get real close to it. | ||
1041 | |1040 |01:29:38 ~-~-> 01:29:43 |Get you excited. Get your real wet. That's a cold shoulder, and it's very, | ||
1042 | |1041 |01:29:43 ~-~-> 01:29:47 |very frustrating. It's extremely frustrating if you don't recognize | ||
1043 | |1042 |01:29:47 ~-~-> 01:29:52 |that's what this type of market's going to do. And then by having that | ||
1044 | |1043 |01:29:52 ~-~-> 01:29:59 |understanding, it'll allow you to hold if you have initial entries early in the | ||
1045 | |1044 |01:29:59 ~-~-> 01:30:05 |day, you. Or before the session starts, pre session, you don't rush your stop | ||
1046 | |1045 |01:30:05 ~-~-> 01:30:11 |loss into that range. You let it stay back a little while. And if you watch | ||
1047 | |1046 |01:30:11 ~-~-> 01:30:15 |some of the executions I shared, lot of questions come up with, why do some of | ||
1048 | |1047 |01:30:15 ~-~-> 01:30:20 |your trades where you'll move the stop loss down or up in deference to what I | ||
1049 | |1048 |01:30:20 ~-~-> 01:30:24 |was, you know, in the trade, for what was your bearish and then there's other | ||
1050 | |1049 |01:30:24 ~-~-> 01:30:27 |trades where I'm in there and I leave my stop, just covering costs, and maybe, | ||
1051 | |1050 |01:30:27 ~-~-> 01:30:32 |you know, a couple 100 hours or grand. Why? Why am I doing this types of | ||
1052 | |1051 |01:30:32 ~-~-> 01:30:37 |things? And the response is in this video here, based on what the market's | ||
1053 | |1052 |01:30:37 ~-~-> 01:30:41 |doing and what I think it's going to behave like, how is it going to behave? | ||
1054 | |1053 |01:30:41 ~-~-> 01:30:46 |How is it going to deliver price? Is it going to be in low resistance liquidity | ||
1055 | |1054 |01:30:46 ~-~-> 01:30:49 |run conditions where it's just going to be a liquid, fluid market, where it just | ||
1056 | |1055 |01:30:49 ~-~-> 01:30:53 |runs real easy to my targets, it's not going to hem and haul spend a lot of | ||
1057 | |1056 |01:30:53 ~-~-> 01:30:57 |time bouncing around before it does it. Or is it going to be high resistance | ||
1058 | |1057 |01:30:57 ~-~-> 01:31:03 |liquidity runs, where I may have entered expecting something to happen, and then | ||
1059 | |1058 |01:31:03 ~-~-> 01:31:08 |something changes, because it's manual intervene. High resistance liquidity | ||
1060 | |1059 |01:31:08 ~-~-> 01:31:14 |runs, most times are manually intervened. That means they're in there | ||
1061 | |1060 |01:31:14 ~-~-> 01:31:19 |tinkering with it. They're trying to screw with the the open interest in the | ||
1062 | |1061 |01:31:19 ~-~-> 01:31:23 |market at that given time of that session, the only time that it's not | ||
1063 | |1062 |01:31:23 ~-~-> 01:31:30 |doing it like that is just the head of like FOMC, a Non Farm Payroll, CPI, PPI | ||
1064 | |1063 |01:31:30 ~-~-> 01:31:35 |number, something that's a big red folder event that usually comes in the | ||
1065 | |1064 |01:31:35 ~-~-> 01:31:40 |marketplace like a landslide and just decimates people initially. What will | ||
1066 | |1065 |01:31:40 ~-~-> 01:31:46 |happen is the market just marks time and just bangs around sideways. And that's | ||
1067 | |1066 |01:31:46 ~-~-> 01:31:52 |not a it's not a time for you to trade. But when it's trading in a high | ||
1068 | |1067 |01:31:52 ~-~-> 01:31:56 |resistance liquidity condition like we've had this morning, there are trades | ||
1069 | |1068 |01:31:56 ~-~-> 01:32:00 |there, but you're not likely to have the skill set to recognize that they're | ||
1070 | |1069 |01:32:00 ~-~-> 01:32:05 |going to deeply retrace on you. They may consolidate a little bit, move down in | ||
1071 | |1070 |01:32:05 ~-~-> 01:32:09 |your favor, then come back up and run against what any trail stop loss would | ||
1072 | |1071 |01:32:09 ~-~-> 01:32:13 |be used for, and then you're stuck. You don't get that. You don't get the | ||
1073 | |1072 |01:32:13 ~-~-> 01:32:16 |payout, but you get the frustration at the end of the day or end the session, | ||
1074 | |1073 |01:32:16 ~-~-> 01:32:20 |where I was I was right about my trade. ICT, I get these all the time. I was | ||
1075 | |1074 |01:32:20 ~-~-> 01:32:23 |right about my trade, but I got stopped out and I got chewed up. I got beat up. | ||
1076 | |1075 |01:32:23 ~-~-> 01:32:28 |The shop is real, you know, all that kind of stuff. It's simply not knowing | ||
1077 | |1076 |01:32:28 ~-~-> 01:32:31 |what the characteristics are going to be like before the trading starts. And | ||
1078 | |1077 |01:32:31 ~-~-> 01:32:36 |that's experience. There's also ways that we're we're outlining here today, | ||
1079 | |1078 |01:32:36 ~-~-> 01:32:40 |the larger the gap, the less likely that is going to happen. Let's put it that | ||
1080 | |1079 |01:32:40 ~-~-> 01:32:45 |way, if I was going to make a bullet point list of what are the signatures | ||
1081 | |1080 |01:32:45 ~-~-> 01:32:50 |that make a high resistance liquidity run signature, a lackluster opening | ||
1082 | |1081 |01:32:50 ~-~-> 01:32:57 |price gap or opening range gap, less than 75 handles. So right away, if it's | ||
1083 | |1082 |01:32:57 ~-~-> 01:33:01 |less than 75 handles of the opening range gap that already invites the | ||
1084 | |1083 |01:33:01 ~-~-> 01:33:05 |likelihood of a lethargic, slow morning doesn't mean it won't trade. It just | ||
1085 | |1084 |01:33:05 ~-~-> 01:33:10 |means, by definition, that's usually a hallmark that starts it right away, and | ||
1086 | |1085 |01:33:10 ~-~-> 01:33:15 |the less that is. If it's under 40, you definitely have a lackluster morning | ||
1087 | |1086 |01:33:15 ~-~-> 01:33:15 |coming. | ||
1088 | |1087 |01:33:16 ~-~-> 01:33:23 |So if it's 75 candles or less, you know, I'm still expecting it could happen. | ||
1089 | |1088 |01:33:23 ~-~-> 01:33:27 |That's why I'm watching that first 30 minutes, because the first 30 minutes is | ||
1090 | |1089 |01:33:27 ~-~-> 01:33:30 |going to give me the information I need to say, Okay, we're in low resistance or | ||
1091 | |1090 |01:33:30 ~-~-> 01:33:36 |high resistance conditions. You want to recognize as soon as you can if we're in | ||
1092 | |1091 |01:33:36 ~-~-> 01:33:39 |low resistance, liquidity run, because if we are, your trades are going to be | ||
1093 | |1092 |01:33:39 ~-~-> 01:33:41 |easy, they're going to be they're going to be fast. They're going to be | ||
1094 | |1093 |01:33:41 ~-~-> 01:33:45 |immediate feedback. You're going to get right to your targets. And your day is | ||
1095 | |1094 |01:33:45 ~-~-> 01:33:51 |going to be just quick. It's going to be quick, low stress day. But if you start | ||
1096 | |1095 |01:33:51 ~-~-> 01:33:59 |recognizing, because we have a an anemic gap opening, if the market is trading in | ||
1097 | |1096 |01:33:59 ~-~-> 01:34:05 |a manner where it's just not trying to go to a liquidity quickly, and it's | ||
1098 | |1097 |01:34:05 ~-~-> 01:34:10 |spending a whole lot of time inside of inefficiencies, inside of gaps. What | ||
1099 | |1098 |01:34:10 ~-~-> 01:34:20 |does that mean? Let's go back into the one minute chart over here left. I'm I | ||
1100 | |1099 |01:34:23 ~-~-> 01:34:26 |actually now go back to rolling this and add the | ||
1101 | |1100 |01:34:33 ~-~-> 01:34:40 |control Z baby, I'll get a message from from the guys that know how to use | ||
1102 | |1101 |01:34:40 ~-~-> 01:34:43 |trading view a lot better than me, and they'll be like, ICT. This is how you | ||
1103 | |1102 |01:34:43 ~-~-> 01:34:46 |can do this. This, this, I love that. I have no shame in telling you that most | ||
1104 | |1103 |01:34:46 ~-~-> 01:34:50 |students have taught me more about trading view than I cared to know | ||
1105 | |1104 |01:34:50 ~-~-> 01:34:55 |really. I mean, because some of them are really cool things. So see how we had a | ||
1106 | |1105 |01:34:55 ~-~-> 01:35:02 |lot of time inside that gap here. This. Your this is your gap. Okay, so we spent | ||
1107 | |1106 |01:35:02 ~-~-> 01:35:07 |a lot of time chopping around in there. How many times did we hit this when we | ||
1108 | |1107 |01:35:07 ~-~-> 01:35:11 |hit consequent pressure like this and came right back up into it here? It | ||
1109 | |1108 |01:35:11 ~-~-> 01:35:16 |should have failed at that point and broke lower, but it didn't see. It did. | ||
1110 | |1109 |01:35:16 ~-~-> 01:35:20 |It did all this type of movement that right there was telling me, okay, just | ||
1111 | |1110 |01:35:20 ~-~-> 01:35:24 |chill. And I told you, I said memorize telling you at the beginning of the | ||
1112 | |1111 |01:35:24 ~-~-> 01:35:28 |session it's going to be a lackluster morning session. That means slow your | ||
1113 | |1112 |01:35:28 ~-~-> 01:35:32 |roll. That means don't try to press the button. That means expect it to be | ||
1114 | |1113 |01:35:32 ~-~-> 01:35:38 |harder than we want it to be easy. But now this is indicating that it's telling | ||
1115 | |1114 |01:35:38 ~-~-> 01:35:43 |you it's not hiding it. But you just never had anyone sit down explain to you | ||
1116 | |1115 |01:35:43 ~-~-> 01:35:46 |how to see it, how to recognize that this is going to be hard trading | ||
1117 | |1116 |01:35:46 ~-~-> 01:35:50 |conditions versus the days that are just real clean price action. This market | ||
1118 | |1117 |01:35:50 ~-~-> 01:35:55 |just takes off and runs, and until you spend time with me, or you go through | ||
1119 | |1118 |01:35:55 ~-~-> 01:35:58 |your charts and you look for these types of things, you're not going to | ||
1120 | |1119 |01:35:58 ~-~-> 01:36:02 |appreciate the insight that it gives you, because it gives you an unfair | ||
1121 | |1120 |01:36:02 ~-~-> 01:36:06 |advantage against everybody else. Everybody else is out there trying to do | ||
1122 | |1121 |01:36:06 ~-~-> 01:36:10 |the same thing. I want to take a trade. I have made myself sit down in front of | ||
1123 | |1122 |01:36:10 ~-~-> 01:36:13 |these charts and damn it, I'm going to make a trade. I'm going to find | ||
1124 | |1123 |01:36:13 ~-~-> 01:36:17 |something. I have to have it. I'm a trader. After all, it's in the name I | ||
1125 | |1124 |01:36:17 ~-~-> 01:36:22 |have to trade. That's bullshit, because what you're saying is, is you want to | ||
1126 | |1125 |01:36:22 ~-~-> 01:36:27 |gamble, but call it trading. You want to impulsively make decisions that are | ||
1127 | |1126 |01:36:27 ~-~-> 01:36:32 |without logic, but you want to call that informed trading. You want to do | ||
1128 | |1127 |01:36:32 ~-~-> 01:36:37 |something and chase price and call it informed decision making. And I'm | ||
1129 | |1128 |01:36:37 ~-~-> 01:36:42 |telling you with someone that's three decades experience, all that stuff leads | ||
1130 | |1129 |01:36:42 ~-~-> 01:36:46 |to ruin. Given enough opportunity and time doing it that way, you will lose | ||
1131 | |1130 |01:36:47 ~-~-> 01:36:52 |and you're going to absolutely hate it. You won't enjoy trading. You won't enjoy | ||
1132 | |1131 |01:36:52 ~-~-> 01:36:56 |studying and journaling and building your enterprise, your your business is | ||
1133 | |1132 |01:36:56 ~-~-> 01:37:01 |you, you incorporated. So isn't it advantageous for you to say, Okay, what | ||
1134 | |1133 |01:37:01 ~-~-> 01:37:05 |barriers do I have in front of me? Think about every corporation has these | ||
1135 | |1134 |01:37:05 ~-~-> 01:37:08 |corporate meetings, these they have board meetings. They have their employee | ||
1136 | |1135 |01:37:08 ~-~-> 01:37:13 |management. Every time I was in corporate positions at nine o'clock, | ||
1137 | |1136 |01:37:13 ~-~-> 01:37:17 |that was the war room. We had to sit down with other department heads, other | ||
1138 | |1137 |01:37:17 ~-~-> 01:37:21 |managers and and we would look at our KPIs, our performance measurements, and | ||
1139 | |1138 |01:37:21 ~-~-> 01:37:26 |if things were slipping in front of our peers, we were told, Look, this is | ||
1140 | |1139 |01:37:26 ~-~-> 01:37:30 |something's going on. Is there another department or something else impacting | ||
1141 | |1140 |01:37:30 ~-~-> 01:37:36 |your ability to meet your KPIs or Excel? And we hashed it out. Sometimes it was | ||
1142 | |1141 |01:37:36 ~-~-> 01:37:40 |drama, sometimes it was everybody's doing, right? Great, but you have to | ||
1143 | |1142 |01:37:40 ~-~-> 01:37:44 |have that same board meeting with yourself every single day in your | ||
1144 | |1143 |01:37:44 ~-~-> 01:37:47 |journal, and you have to have the expectation that you're doing that for | ||
1145 | |1144 |01:37:47 ~-~-> 01:37:52 |the embedment for yourself as the corporation you incorporated, your | ||
1146 | |1145 |01:37:52 ~-~-> 01:37:58 |business is not gambling. Your business is trading and managing risk, and the | ||
1147 | |1146 |01:37:58 ~-~-> 01:38:02 |first rule in managing risk is recognizing when that risk is going to | ||
1148 | |1147 |01:38:02 ~-~-> 01:38:09 |be elevated, having an understanding of how to discern when the market's going | ||
1149 | |1148 |01:38:09 ~-~-> 01:38:15 |to be a harder adversary today than another day, where you're going to be | ||
1150 | |1149 |01:38:15 ~-~-> 01:38:18 |more equipped to trade your model and it's going to be quick, easy, sudden, | ||
1151 | |1150 |01:38:18 ~-~-> 01:38:23 |delivered to your price or your targets. Looking at this, you can see there's | ||
1152 | |1151 |01:38:23 ~-~-> 01:38:29 |trades there. I'm going to give you a minute while I take a drink using the 15 | ||
1153 | |1152 |01:38:29 ~-~-> 01:38:33 |second chart, everything that's outlined here on the chart right now. Can you | ||
1154 | |1153 |01:38:33 ~-~-> 01:38:40 |see, can you find at least two setups? Don't rush through it. Just take your | ||
1155 | |1154 |01:38:40 ~-~-> 01:38:40 |time. Look through it, because | ||
1156 | |1155 |01:38:46 ~-~-> 01:38:51 |when you get home at nighttime, when you're resting off, you want to go | ||
1157 | |1156 |01:38:51 ~-~-> 01:38:55 |through your charts looking at it. So even when it was a harder market, you | ||
1158 | |1157 |01:38:55 ~-~-> 01:39:00 |want to go back through and pick out where the setups work, and then look at | ||
1159 | |1158 |01:39:00 ~-~-> 01:39:05 |what was right before that setup finally panning out, because that's the keys of | ||
1160 | |1159 |01:39:05 ~-~-> 01:39:08 |understanding how to avoid these types of days and hurt them. I'm hurting you | ||
1161 | |1160 |01:39:08 ~-~-> 01:39:09 |rather I | ||
1162 | |1161 |01:39:20 ~-~-> 01:39:33 |the uncomfortable silence. | ||
1163 | |1162 |01:39:37 ~-~-> 01:39:41 |Remember, we recognize early on that it's going to be a lackluster day, that | ||
1164 | |1163 |01:39:41 ~-~-> 01:39:49 |means it's going to be high resistance. So that means your draw is down here. | ||
1165 | |1164 |01:39:50 ~-~-> 01:39:54 |That means everything is framed on the basis of it's going to eventually reach | ||
1166 | |1165 |01:39:54 ~-~-> 01:40:01 |for this relative equal low so knowing that your. Model is built around what | ||
1167 | |1166 |01:40:02 ~-~-> 01:40:07 |that first presented fair value. That's this darker rectangle up here. When we | ||
1168 | |1167 |01:40:07 ~-~-> 01:40:11 |first traded down through it, it came back up. It hit the consequent | ||
1169 | |1168 |01:40:11 ~-~-> 01:40:16 |encroachment. And we want to see price at that time displaced lower, and then | ||
1170 | |1169 |01:40:16 ~-~-> 01:40:22 |find something maybe on a 15 second chart in this, in this drop down in the | ||
1171 | |1170 |01:40:22 ~-~-> 01:40:27 |first retracement into a fair value gap. I'm speaking like this was the one | ||
1172 | |1171 |01:40:27 ~-~-> 01:40:33 |minute chart, but we're actually in the 15 second chart, yeah. But the the fair | ||
1173 | |1172 |01:40:33 ~-~-> 01:40:38 |value gap that would have formed on this 15 second chart, the first one would be | ||
1174 | |1173 |01:40:38 ~-~-> 01:40:46 |right in here. But look at the prices going in here. So we hit consequence one | ||
1175 | |1174 |01:40:46 ~-~-> 01:40:52 |more time. Step up onto it, hit the low of it here. Now that in itself, that is | ||
1176 | |1175 |01:40:52 ~-~-> 01:40:58 |something you want to see in a low resistance liquidity run condition where | ||
1177 | |1176 |01:40:58 ~-~-> 01:41:01 |it respects the level here and it respects the level here, but because we | ||
1178 | |1177 |01:41:01 ~-~-> 01:41:08 |went this many times into it here, here, here, it's doing what it's spending too | ||
1179 | |1178 |01:41:08 ~-~-> 01:41:16 |much time in your fair value guy, inefficiencies or gaps. You want them to | ||
1180 | |1179 |01:41:16 ~-~-> 01:41:23 |go in, stick their toe in the water and then run away. You just want to have one | ||
1181 | |1180 |01:41:23 ~-~-> 01:41:27 |quick High Five moment, and you're out of there. Come on, see it. You're not | ||
1182 | |1181 |01:41:27 ~-~-> 01:41:30 |trying to rub shoulders and elbows and and schmooze. You're not, you're not | ||
1183 | |1182 |01:41:30 ~-~-> 01:41:35 |trying to, you know, hang out in there. And if you start seeing price, have a | ||
1184 | |1183 |01:41:35 ~-~-> 01:41:39 |lot of interest getting back to that same area. If that's not good, above old | ||
1185 | |1184 |01:41:39 ~-~-> 01:41:44 |highs, it's okay to see that below old lows. It's okay to see that because | ||
1186 | |1185 |01:41:44 ~-~-> 01:41:49 |that's accumulation. You don't want to see accumulation inside of | ||
1187 | |1186 |01:41:49 ~-~-> 01:41:53 |inefficiencies. You want to see them enter it or touch it and then repel away | ||
1188 | |1187 |01:41:53 ~-~-> 01:41:58 |from the more times it touches. It's like, well, think about like trend | ||
1189 | |1188 |01:41:58 ~-~-> 01:42:02 |lines. Okay. When I first learned about trend lines is the more times the trend | ||
1190 | |1189 |01:42:02 ~-~-> 01:42:06 |line can be touched, the stronger the trend line. And that's the biggest | ||
1191 | |1190 |01:42:06 ~-~-> 01:42:10 |bullshit there is, too. Because if you're hoping that it's going to come | ||
1192 | |1191 |01:42:10 ~-~-> 01:42:13 |back and touch it multiple times, chances are it's going to go through it. | ||
1193 | |1192 |01:42:14 ~-~-> 01:42:19 |So the same thing is happening here. Touches the consequent encroachment. | ||
1194 | |1193 |01:42:19 ~-~-> 01:42:23 |Wonderful ideal world, it should have dropped right there, if it would have | ||
1195 | |1194 |01:42:23 ~-~-> 01:42:27 |done this wick here, and it just did that. Then at that time, it should have | ||
1196 | |1195 |01:42:27 ~-~-> 01:42:30 |dropped precipitously and immediately, should have ran right from there and | ||
1197 | |1196 |01:42:30 ~-~-> 01:42:35 |just gushed straight through this low and sped up right before we get to this | ||
1198 | |1197 |01:42:35 ~-~-> 01:42:40 |low Here, have some kind of retracement and then dump down into but that's not | ||
1199 | |1198 |01:42:40 ~-~-> 01:42:43 |going to happen on a day where it's going to be high resistance liquidity, | ||
1200 | |1199 |01:42:43 ~-~-> 01:42:47 |it's going to be met with a lot of back and forth, back and forth, back and | ||
1201 | |1200 |01:42:47 ~-~-> 01:42:54 |forth. So what's actually occurring is this, you have the shorts up here at the | ||
1202 | |1201 |01:42:54 ~-~-> 01:42:58 |opening bell. It drops the first retracement. That's optimal trade entry. | ||
1203 | |1202 |01:42:58 ~-~-> 01:43:04 |They're short there. Sells off. If they don't take partials, they're going to | ||
1204 | |1203 |01:43:04 ~-~-> 01:43:09 |have to weather this retracement, this retracement, and now we got relative | ||
1205 | |1204 |01:43:09 ~-~-> 01:43:15 |equal lows here. What is that doing? It's creating sellers below here, | ||
1206 | |1205 |01:43:16 ~-~-> 01:43:21 |because retail traders are going to see that's what it's bullish. We have a doji | ||
1207 | |1206 |01:43:21 ~-~-> 01:43:24 |down here. We got these relative lows. This is support. So now they're going to | ||
1208 | |1207 |01:43:24 ~-~-> 01:43:28 |do what they're going to look for, bull flags. Well, as the market rallies up, | ||
1209 | |1208 |01:43:28 ~-~-> 01:43:31 |it starts to consolidate in here. They think, wow, it's going to go higher if | ||
1210 | |1209 |01:43:31 ~-~-> 01:43:35 |they're long, where they're going to place their stop loss, right below here. | ||
1211 | |1210 |01:43:35 ~-~-> 01:43:40 |So what is that going to be? It's a sell stop. Well, that's wonderful, because | ||
1212 | |1211 |01:43:40 ~-~-> 01:43:45 |anyone that's trying to get short today, they have willing sellers at a low | ||
1213 | |1212 |01:43:45 ~-~-> 01:43:50 |price. Once it goes high into any retracement, it does. We have a | ||
1214 | |1213 |01:43:50 ~-~-> 01:43:57 |retracement here, but it spent a lot of time inside of your gap. It should have | ||
1215 | |1214 |01:43:57 ~-~-> 01:44:01 |dropped here. It should have dropped here. It didn't, and now that we're | ||
1216 | |1215 |01:44:01 ~-~-> 01:44:07 |marking time inside your your fair value gap, that's not something you want to | ||
1217 | |1216 |01:44:07 ~-~-> 01:44:12 |see. It's doing too much at a level that should have already had a high degree of | ||
1218 | |1217 |01:44:12 ~-~-> 01:44:17 |influence over price. This should have never been going on at all. But because | ||
1219 | |1218 |01:44:17 ~-~-> 01:44:23 |it's high resistance liquidity, it's holding it's holding price inside of a | ||
1220 | |1219 |01:44:23 ~-~-> 01:44:29 |range. What range is that? It's the high here and the low here. So who's been | ||
1221 | |1220 |01:44:29 ~-~-> 01:44:32 |making money at this point right here? Who's been making money the shorts? So | ||
1222 | |1221 |01:44:32 ~-~-> 01:44:36 |what are they going to run for their stops? Where's their stop going to be | ||
1223 | |1222 |01:44:36 ~-~-> 01:44:41 |above these highs? And it runs right up into the upper portion of the opening | ||
1224 | |1223 |01:44:41 ~-~-> 01:44:44 |range got. Remember earlier it was pink and I shaded into the white area. Do you | ||
1225 | |1224 |01:44:45 ~-~-> 01:44:50 |remember that? Yes, so when it ran up into that, I talked about how the body | ||
1226 | |1225 |01:44:50 ~-~-> 01:44:54 |stopped at that lower I'm sorry, the upper quadrant level of it, the width, | ||
1227 | |1226 |01:44:54 ~-~-> 01:44:59 |did the damage, but it left that upper portion open. That tells you that this | ||
1228 | |1227 |01:44:59 ~-~-> 01:45:04 |level down here is. To get hit. All they did was last little run on the stops up | ||
1229 | |1228 |01:45:04 ~-~-> 01:45:08 |here, and they left that small little portion open. That is an algorithm, | ||
1230 | |1229 |01:45:08 ~-~-> 01:45:12 |sorry, algorithmic signature. It's telling you. It's the algorithm tipping | ||
1231 | |1230 |01:45:12 ~-~-> 01:45:16 |its hand, saying, I didn't completely close it in. So that's your that's your | ||
1232 | |1231 |01:45:16 ~-~-> 01:45:20 |okay. It's going to happen now, if it would have completely closed it in and | ||
1233 | |1232 |01:45:20 ~-~-> 01:45:24 |traded outside of it, this would have been less likely to be traded to Is | ||
1234 | |1233 |01:45:24 ~-~-> 01:45:28 |there anything about what I just said that you don't understand? No fair value | ||
1235 | |1234 |01:45:28 ~-~-> 01:45:33 |gaps. When you're bearish, you want to see the upper half, but stay open a fair | ||
1236 | |1235 |01:45:33 ~-~-> 01:45:37 |value gap that's bullish, you want to see the lower half of it. Stay open in | ||
1237 | |1236 |01:45:37 ~-~-> 01:45:40 |here. What are you seeing if we're bearish and we're expecting price to | ||
1238 | |1237 |01:45:40 ~-~-> 01:45:44 |trade down here, and all things being equal, that we thought that from the | ||
1239 | |1238 |01:45:44 ~-~-> 01:45:48 |opening price, it's bearish, we have 70% opening range gap to be treated to, and | ||
1240 | |1239 |01:45:48 ~-~-> 01:45:53 |then once we get to the gap closure, we treat that whole entire range of that | ||
1241 | |1240 |01:45:53 ~-~-> 01:45:59 |opening range gap as a inefficiency, and you treat the same way as a fair value | ||
1242 | |1241 |01:45:59 ~-~-> 01:46:02 |gap. So if it's bearish, ideally you want to see any turning point when it | ||
1243 | |1242 |01:46:02 ~-~-> 01:46:07 |digs back up into it. Stop at the lower half the white area is the upper half of | ||
1244 | |1243 |01:46:07 ~-~-> 01:46:13 |that opening you got. We stabbed up into it. So that was that last little ditch | ||
1245 | |1244 |01:46:13 ~-~-> 01:46:18 |effort of doing what, wiping out anyone that's short, taking in anyone that | ||
1246 | |1245 |01:46:18 ~-~-> 01:46:22 |wants to go long, but they don't have to be a breakout artist here. So longs are | ||
1247 | |1246 |01:46:22 ~-~-> 01:46:27 |trapped. Long here shorts are stopped out because the long by breakout artists | ||
1248 | |1247 |01:46:27 ~-~-> 01:46:31 |and the short buy stop protection, they're being engaged with this rally | ||
1249 | |1248 |01:46:31 ~-~-> 01:46:38 |here. So this is your Judas. They can go back and listen to their stream where I | ||
1250 | |1249 |01:46:38 ~-~-> 01:46:42 |talked about how this is good, that open, and everything's still in play for | ||
1251 | |1250 |01:46:42 ~-~-> 01:46:46 |that to happen here. But the trolls will look at, oh, look at this. It went back | ||
1252 | |1251 |01:46:46 ~-~-> 01:46:50 |and forth, these things they ran through. That's exactly what's going to | ||
1253 | |1252 |01:46:50 ~-~-> 01:46:53 |happen on these days. So you have to know that this, you have to be a little | ||
1254 | |1253 |01:46:53 ~-~-> 01:47:00 |bit more flexible. But now, when it does this, price comes back down, eats right | ||
1255 | |1254 |01:47:00 ~-~-> 01:47:04 |through your fair Vega. It's exactly what you want to see. It leaves the | ||
1256 | |1255 |01:47:04 ~-~-> 01:47:07 |upper portion of opening range. Gap trades down through it and then comes | ||
1257 | |1256 |01:47:07 ~-~-> 01:47:15 |back up and kisses the low of that first fair value gap. That's your short that's | ||
1258 | |1257 |01:47:15 ~-~-> 01:47:21 |yours. Your stop loss has to be above your first fair value guy, and your | ||
1259 | |1258 |01:47:21 ~-~-> 01:47:24 |stop, in this case, because it's high resistance liquid, folks, this is the | ||
1260 | |1259 |01:47:24 ~-~-> 01:47:30 |part where you write shit down on high resistance liquidity run days, your stop | ||
1261 | |1260 |01:47:30 ~-~-> 01:47:35 |has to factor that fair value gaps range, meaning this, if you're getting | ||
1262 | |1261 |01:47:35 ~-~-> 01:47:39 |short here, because you have a tendency to see deeper retracements that you're | ||
1263 | |1262 |01:47:39 ~-~-> 01:47:46 |more comfortable being in or less convenient the range of this fair value | ||
1264 | |1263 |01:47:46 ~-~-> 01:47:50 |gap from your entry, you have to add that to what would be here. That's your | ||
1265 | |1264 |01:47:50 ~-~-> 01:47:55 |stop two times this. So that means you're probably definitely going into a | ||
1266 | |1265 |01:47:55 ~-~-> 01:47:58 |micro and some of these individuals are listening. Don't want to hear that. I | ||
1267 | |1266 |01:47:59 ~-~-> 01:48:02 |don't want to trade with a stop loss that wide, then don't trade the today at | ||
1268 | |1267 |01:48:02 ~-~-> 01:48:06 |all. But if you're going to trade, you have to afford yourself the luxury of | ||
1269 | |1268 |01:48:06 ~-~-> 01:48:13 |saying, I'm going to use a stop that is at least two times this range, or | ||
1270 | |1269 |01:48:13 ~-~-> 01:48:20 |whatever the fairbag app is. So let's do like this normally, using this area | ||
1271 | |1270 |01:48:20 ~-~-> 01:48:24 |here, you might think, Well, I'm just gonna put my stop loss just a couple | ||
1272 | |1271 |01:48:24 ~-~-> 01:48:31 |ticks above the gap. Not, no, no, no, you want to do this. That's your entry. | ||
1273 | |1272 |01:48:33 ~-~-> 01:48:41 |That's your fair value gap, width or height of it, your stop loss has got to | ||
1274 | |1273 |01:48:41 ~-~-> 01:48:41 |be up here. | ||
1275 | |1274 |01:48:44 ~-~-> 01:48:49 |Because it can retrace and wick through and then still go back down. So you have | ||
1276 | |1275 |01:48:49 ~-~-> 01:48:53 |to refer to that frame of reference, that measurement of time, I'm sorry, of | ||
1277 | |1276 |01:48:53 ~-~-> 01:48:58 |price. So if, if the price comes back up at a later time, it's you're affording | ||
1278 | |1277 |01:48:58 ~-~-> 01:49:03 |yourself, not just static price action. It's going to take a real move to get up | ||
1279 | |1278 |01:49:03 ~-~-> 01:49:07 |there to take you stopped out. And that way, it gives you the the ability to | ||
1280 | |1279 |01:49:07 ~-~-> 01:49:11 |stay with the trade longer, and you won't feel so scared about being stopped | ||
1281 | |1280 |01:49:11 ~-~-> 01:49:15 |out, versus if you just go in here and it starts to break away using a stop | ||
1282 | |1281 |01:49:15 ~-~-> 01:49:19 |offset consequence. I want to lower this in the pudding run day. That's what I | ||
1283 | |1282 |01:49:19 ~-~-> 01:49:21 |was using. I'd go one tick above that, but we're not in that. And as I | ||
1284 | |1283 |01:49:21 ~-~-> 01:49:24 |mentioned in the beginning, this beginning of the session, it's a it's a | ||
1285 | |1284 |01:49:24 ~-~-> 01:49:28 |lackluster morning session. It's coming. Doesn't mean we can't trade it. It just | ||
1286 | |1285 |01:49:28 ~-~-> 01:49:31 |means that it's going to be more difficult. It's going to require you a | ||
1287 | |1286 |01:49:31 ~-~-> 01:49:34 |whole lot more experience. So your short would be entered here, your stop losses | ||
1288 | |1287 |01:49:34 ~-~-> 01:49:39 |be where it was just mentioned ago, and then it trades down through the 15 | ||
1289 | |1288 |01:49:39 ~-~-> 01:49:45 |second gap. But what is it doing in here? Is it showing a willingness to | ||
1290 | |1289 |01:49:45 ~-~-> 01:49:51 |want to run away? It's spending too much time in there. So it's going to be a lot | ||
1291 | |1290 |01:49:51 ~-~-> 01:49:55 |of this. It'll finally move in your favor. Come right back up into | ||
1292 | |1291 |01:49:55 ~-~-> 01:50:00 |consequent approachment of that 15 second gap. Break lower you. Not take | ||
1293 | |1292 |01:50:00 ~-~-> 01:50:06 |out the low yet, come back up in here, drive below this low on a low resistance | ||
1294 | |1293 |01:50:06 ~-~-> 01:50:11 |liquidity run day. I teach to take partials every single time, because | ||
1295 | |1294 |01:50:11 ~-~-> 01:50:15 |they're not going to have the skill set to recognize the difference between high | ||
1296 | |1295 |01:50:15 ~-~-> 01:50:19 |resistance liquidity run days and low resistance liquidity run days. For | ||
1297 | |1296 |01:50:19 ~-~-> 01:50:25 |clarity, you want to be pushing your edge. You want to be using your maximum | ||
1298 | |1297 |01:50:25 ~-~-> 01:50:29 |leverage, but not over leverage on low resistance liquidity run dates. You do | ||
1299 | |1298 |01:50:29 ~-~-> 01:50:34 |not want to be doing lots of trades high leverage in high resistance liquidity | ||
1300 | |1299 |01:50:34 ~-~-> 01:50:38 |run days, because it's going to be like trying to run in quicksand. You're going | ||
1301 | |1300 |01:50:38 ~-~-> 01:50:43 |to tire yourself out, and you're probably going to lose. But because I | ||
1302 | |1301 |01:50:43 ~-~-> 01:50:48 |teach tend to take partials all the time. Over time, what will happen is | ||
1303 | |1302 |01:50:48 ~-~-> 01:50:53 |they will train themselves at if we're bearish, every time it takes out a low, | ||
1304 | |1303 |01:50:53 ~-~-> 01:50:58 |once it trades down below that low, that's where a partial be taken. What | ||
1305 | |1304 |01:50:58 ~-~-> 01:51:04 |type of percentage of your position? Would you think is appropriate on a day | ||
1306 | |1305 |01:51:04 ~-~-> 01:51:07 |that you already know that you're likely to be met with high resistance if you | ||
1307 | |1306 |01:51:07 ~-~-> 01:51:12 |have, say, 10 contracts on, which is my standard position size, if I have 10 | ||
1308 | |1307 |01:51:12 ~-~-> 01:51:17 |contracts on on NASDAQ, and I know I'm in a high resistance liquidity run day, | ||
1309 | |1308 |01:51:17 ~-~-> 01:51:22 |how many contracts would you suppose is a realistic amount to take off when it | ||
1310 | |1309 |01:51:22 ~-~-> 01:51:26 |goes into profit. Remember your entries here, and once it goes below this low, | ||
1311 | |1310 |01:51:27 ~-~-> 01:51:31 |how many contracts of those 10 contracts would you think Dad would want to take | ||
1312 | |1311 |01:51:31 ~-~-> 01:51:34 |off? And there's no right or wrong answer, I'm just saying, Well, how many | ||
1313 | |1312 |01:51:34 ~-~-> 01:51:38 |would you think? Probably between 16. That's actually a good answer. I'm | ||
1314 | |1313 |01:51:39 ~-~-> 01:51:43 |actually surprised. I'm surprised I if this is not scripted, I was expecting | ||
1315 | |1314 |01:51:43 ~-~-> 01:51:47 |pricing like two and I'd be like, No, I'd want to take more. No, uh, eight | ||
1316 | |1315 |01:51:47 ~-~-> 01:51:53 |would be kind of high. But six to seven, yeah, six is a good one, okay. But then | ||
1317 | |1316 |01:51:53 ~-~-> 01:51:59 |as remaining four contracts, I'd have to sit through all of this drawdown, just | ||
1318 | |1317 |01:51:59 ~-~-> 01:52:04 |all the way back to almost to where I entered, and then once it breaks again, | ||
1319 | |1318 |01:52:04 ~-~-> 01:52:09 |go back to the same motion of, Okay, now we're we're aiming right below this low, | ||
1320 | |1319 |01:52:09 ~-~-> 01:52:14 |but we're in close proximity to what the original relatively below that. We can't | ||
1321 | |1320 |01:52:14 ~-~-> 01:52:18 |see here because we're or Sean river trading on us. I mean, let me go into | ||
1322 | |1321 |01:52:18 ~-~-> 01:52:28 |electronic uh, it's these, uh, relative people lows that we framed the morning | ||
1323 | |1322 |01:52:29 ~-~-> 01:52:32 |on. I already know there's been people that probably are signed off. They're | ||
1324 | |1323 |01:52:32 ~-~-> 01:52:37 |like, this guy, okay, but seriously, like those same people, they're going to | ||
1325 | |1324 |01:52:37 ~-~-> 01:52:39 |lose their ass. They're never going to make any money, and they're going to get | ||
1326 | |1325 |01:52:39 ~-~-> 01:52:42 |chopped up in days like this, and they're going to say, Oh, the market was | ||
1327 | |1326 |01:52:42 ~-~-> 01:52:47 |just choppy. Just choppy. The market's doing what it's it's intended to do, and | ||
1328 | |1327 |01:52:48 ~-~-> 01:52:53 |when it's not being ran by an algorithm, and there's manual intervention, you're | ||
1329 | |1328 |01:52:53 ~-~-> 01:52:58 |going to see them deliver in a way that isn't perfect, like the algorithm. The | ||
1330 | |1329 |01:52:58 ~-~-> 01:53:03 |difference is this, on low resistance liquidity run days you're going to see | ||
1331 | |1330 |01:53:03 ~-~-> 01:53:07 |the market delivers to the tick. How do you know there's manual intervention? | ||
1332 | |1331 |01:53:08 ~-~-> 01:53:13 |Because that precision is not there. That means somebody's in there with a | ||
1333 | |1332 |01:53:13 ~-~-> 01:53:18 |spoon and stern the shit up. That's why you're getting these wild little runs | ||
1334 | |1333 |01:53:18 ~-~-> 01:53:25 |outside of the inefficiencies here, all these little spiky moves. Okay, that's | ||
1335 | |1334 |01:53:25 ~-~-> 01:53:29 |not just chop and the imbalance of buying and selling, of buying and | ||
1336 | |1335 |01:53:29 ~-~-> 01:53:35 |selling pressure. That's someone saying, I want these stops. I want to I'm taking | ||
1337 | |1336 |01:53:35 ~-~-> 01:53:40 |it all the way back up here to unseat those individuals that are already short | ||
1338 | |1337 |01:53:40 ~-~-> 01:53:46 |that trailed their stop losses here, because there, there may be, there may | ||
1339 | |1338 |01:53:46 ~-~-> 01:53:52 |be an entity that wants to be short and they don't have the size on they have | ||
1340 | |1339 |01:53:52 ~-~-> 01:53:59 |intended to have on yet, sounds like conspiracy. I know there's people that's | ||
1341 | |1340 |01:53:59 ~-~-> 01:54:02 |listening to Scott. I love that. I absolutely love it, because they're | ||
1342 | |1341 |01:54:02 ~-~-> 01:54:08 |never understanding what's going on. But I'm out here doing it, so they're seeing | ||
1343 | |1342 |01:54:08 ~-~-> 01:54:13 |these stops taken here. Those stops are absolutely being onboarded right there. | ||
1344 | |1343 |01:54:13 ~-~-> 01:54:18 |How do you know that? Because look how much time it sat there. It didn't go one | ||
1345 | |1344 |01:54:18 ~-~-> 01:54:25 |spike, wicked and run away. It sat there and afforded the open interest to enter | ||
1346 | |1345 |01:54:25 ~-~-> 01:54:30 |the market and that pairing of orders. Look at your time and sales. For those | ||
1347 | |1346 |01:54:30 ~-~-> 01:54:33 |that have had that have that information right there. Look at this area right in | ||
1348 | |1347 |01:54:33 ~-~-> 01:54:37 |here, from the high of that inefficiency always to the high here. Look how many | ||
1349 | |1348 |01:54:37 ~-~-> 01:54:41 |contracts were traded there, and you're going to see how smart money slip right | ||
1350 | |1349 |01:54:41 ~-~-> 01:54:47 |on in there, and then it does this quickly shoots lower. Anyone that's | ||
1351 | |1350 |01:54:47 ~-~-> 01:54:54 |short here, here or here, they're going to take and start off loading their | ||
1352 | |1351 |01:54:54 ~-~-> 01:54:58 |short positions by buying that at a load price. What's convenient is that low has | ||
1353 | |1352 |01:54:58 ~-~-> 01:55:02 |triggers that went long. And how they protect their position, they have a cell | ||
1354 | |1353 |01:55:02 ~-~-> 01:55:07 |stop below that low. So how much below this market can it drop below that low? | ||
1355 | |1354 |01:55:07 ~-~-> 01:55:10 |Go back to our first frame of reference, which is those relative equal lows, | ||
1356 | |1355 |01:55:10 ~-~-> 01:55:17 |where the sell side liquidity is over here. So if it's going to go below this | ||
1357 | |1356 |01:55:17 ~-~-> 01:55:21 |low, it's reasonable to expect it to do what wick and run through those relative | ||
1358 | |1357 |01:55:21 ~-~-> 01:55:27 |equal hooks, and it does that here. So even if you didn't understand how to | ||
1359 | |1358 |01:55:27 ~-~-> 01:55:30 |find the right liquidity pools, this is why I teach partials. Every time it | ||
1360 | |1359 |01:55:30 ~-~-> 01:55:35 |takes out a low you take a partial offer if you're short and over time, because | ||
1361 | |1360 |01:55:35 ~-~-> 01:55:39 |you're you're supposed to be journaling that way, you'll see, oh, wow, I didn't | ||
1362 | |1361 |01:55:39 ~-~-> 01:55:42 |notice that at the time, because they're going to be trading when I'm not doing | ||
1363 | |1362 |01:55:42 ~-~-> 01:55:47 |live streams eventually here, right? So they have to have their own skill set. | ||
1364 | |1363 |01:55:47 ~-~-> 01:55:50 |They have their own rules or processes and protocols, and because if they're | ||
1365 | |1364 |01:55:50 ~-~-> 01:55:56 |taking shorts and covering partials below a new low that's being formed once | ||
1366 | |1365 |01:55:56 ~-~-> 01:56:01 |that happens, you gotta train yourself, son, to take something off, even if, | ||
1367 | |1366 |01:56:01 ~-~-> 01:56:07 |even if it's one contract, because number one, it rewards your patience, it | ||
1368 | |1367 |01:56:07 ~-~-> 01:56:14 |rewards your ability to find the setup, but it also reduces your risk. And over | ||
1369 | |1368 |01:56:14 ~-~-> 01:56:19 |time, all these things blend together, and you get a really rich tapestry and | ||
1370 | |1369 |01:56:19 ~-~-> 01:56:23 |perspective of what it is that you're trying to engage in, in price and | ||
1371 | |1370 |01:56:23 ~-~-> 01:56:26 |everything that looks like, it's a choppy mess when you're just simply | ||
1372 | |1371 |01:56:26 ~-~-> 01:56:30 |looking at like, like, like this. Like, look at it here, like that, versus this. | ||
1373 | |1372 |01:56:31 ~-~-> 01:56:34 |That looks like, what the hell is that? It's a seismic graph. Okay? It looks | ||
1374 | |1373 |01:56:34 ~-~-> 01:56:37 |like an earthquake, right? Like, how are, How is anybody supposed to know | ||
1375 | |1374 |01:56:37 ~-~-> 01:56:42 |anything about the future direction of these individual candlesticks based on | ||
1376 | |1375 |01:56:42 ~-~-> 01:56:45 |anything that's being shown here. But then when you contrast that with now you | ||
1377 | |1376 |01:56:45 ~-~-> 01:56:49 |have a context added to it. You have your first fair value gap. You have the | ||
1378 | |1377 |01:56:49 ~-~-> 01:56:54 |upper quadrant of the opening range gap. The bias is bearish, aiming down here. | ||
1379 | |1378 |01:56:54 ~-~-> 01:56:59 |So that means every single time it runs stops, what kind of stops buy stops? | ||
1380 | |1379 |01:56:59 ~-~-> 01:57:06 |That means it's got to run equal highs or a singular high. And if it does that, | ||
1381 | |1380 |01:57:06 ~-~-> 01:57:12 |does the market go lower? If it's doing that, then you are in high resistance | ||
1382 | |1381 |01:57:12 ~-~-> 01:57:16 |liquidity run conditions, and they're only manipulating price higher just to | ||
1383 | |1382 |01:57:16 ~-~-> 01:57:22 |take the shorts out, and they're taking those positions over by selling short to | ||
1384 | |1383 |01:57:22 ~-~-> 01:57:28 |those buy stocks. Perfect example is here, that right there, and the market | ||
1385 | |1384 |01:57:28 ~-~-> 01:57:32 |drops down, then we have the market right here. Does what creates a short | ||
1386 | |1385 |01:57:32 ~-~-> 01:57:39 |term high leaves it comes one more time. Touches now we're back into algorithmic | ||
1387 | |1386 |01:57:39 ~-~-> 01:57:44 |delivery, because the manipulation is done. The manipulation is done. So | ||
1388 | |1387 |01:57:44 ~-~-> 01:57:47 |there's two times that they came in today and they stirred the pot. That | ||
1389 | |1388 |01:57:47 ~-~-> 01:57:54 |means someone caused artificially. It wasn't completely AI driven, like it | ||
1390 | |1389 |01:57:54 ~-~-> 01:57:59 |normally is low resistant liquidity run markets are AI driven. That's why | ||
1391 | |1390 |01:57:59 ~-~-> 01:58:03 |they're real loot. They're real fluid. And just liquidity is easy to see. It | ||
1392 | |1391 |01:58:03 ~-~-> 01:58:07 |runs right to it, and it's everything to the tick, and your precision is going to | ||
1393 | |1392 |01:58:07 ~-~-> 01:58:13 |be bang on, but you will lose that precision in high resistance liquidity | ||
1394 | |1393 |01:58:13 ~-~-> 01:58:18 |days or sessions because you're competing with the person that is in | ||
1395 | |1394 |01:58:18 ~-~-> 01:58:19 |control. | ||
1396 | |1395 |01:58:20 ~-~-> 01:58:24 |So is it not advantageous to recognize this in an early setting, while you're | ||
1397 | |1396 |01:58:24 ~-~-> 01:58:29 |developing as a student, to recognize when you are at class, when you have an | ||
1398 | |1397 |01:58:29 ~-~-> 01:58:35 |actual predator in there that you don't know what they're going to do, you don't | ||
1399 | |1398 |01:58:35 ~-~-> 01:58:39 |know that. I don't know that. So it's going to be harder for you to navigate | ||
1400 | |1399 |01:58:39 ~-~-> 01:58:44 |in there. So I That's why I trade with less risk, or I simply don't trade | ||
1401 | |1400 |01:58:44 ~-~-> 01:58:50 |because I don't want to be arm wrestling with someone that I know is outsized me | ||
1402 | |1401 |01:58:50 ~-~-> 01:58:54 |has has control over something that I don't have control over, and they can | ||
1403 | |1402 |01:58:54 ~-~-> 01:59:00 |manipulate it where I don't have any advantage, and my edge is removed. So | ||
1404 | |1403 |01:59:02 ~-~-> 01:59:07 |when I taught product mentorship, I started teaching this way, and I wanted | ||
1405 | |1404 |01:59:07 ~-~-> 01:59:10 |the students to sit in there, and it's very dry, it's very boring, and if | ||
1406 | |1405 |01:59:10 ~-~-> 01:59:13 |anybody's still here, I applaud you, because you're doing the very most | ||
1407 | |1406 |01:59:16 ~-~-> 01:59:19 |positive thing that you can do for your understanding and your learning. Because | ||
1408 | |1407 |01:59:19 ~-~-> 01:59:22 |these are things you're not finding in books and no other educators going to | ||
1409 | |1408 |01:59:22 ~-~-> 01:59:26 |touch on these topics. They're not going to touch on it because it's completely | ||
1410 | |1409 |01:59:26 ~-~-> 01:59:29 |alien to them, because 99% everybody else that's educator, unless they've | ||
1411 | |1410 |01:59:29 ~-~-> 01:59:32 |been trained by me, or they found my content leaked, or they learned it from | ||
1412 | |1411 |01:59:32 ~-~-> 01:59:37 |somebody else that's trying to teach it, but don't know shit about it. They don't | ||
1413 | |1412 |01:59:37 ~-~-> 01:59:40 |believe in an AI or an algorithm controlling price, so they think it's | ||
1414 | |1413 |01:59:40 ~-~-> 01:59:43 |buying selling pressure. So they're never going to think of this. They're | ||
1415 | |1414 |01:59:43 ~-~-> 01:59:48 |never going to look at it that way. But that's why I ask you all to suspend your | ||
1416 | |1415 |01:59:48 ~-~-> 01:59:51 |disbelief. If you don't think there's an algorithm, just for the sake of our | ||
1417 | |1416 |01:59:51 ~-~-> 01:59:56 |conversations, hold hold that idea for pulling the bargain. If there is an | ||
1418 | |1417 |01:59:56 ~-~-> 02:00:02 |algorithm, there are going to be times where, if. There is a instance where the | ||
1419 | |1418 |02:00:02 ~-~-> 02:00:09 |AI is over ridden. Okay? It's not allowed to do what it's supposed to do. | ||
1420 | |1419 |02:00:09 ~-~-> 02:00:14 |It's there's some kind of intervention that's taking place when you see price | ||
1421 | |1420 |02:00:14 ~-~-> 02:00:18 |losing its precision and delivering right to the tip on that. On my PD | ||
1422 | |1421 |02:00:18 ~-~-> 02:00:24 |arrays, when I see that I'm not looking at they're changing the algorithm. I'm | ||
1423 | |1422 |02:00:24 ~-~-> 02:00:29 |not looking at my stuff doesn't work. Like an asshole a troll, they'll say | ||
1424 | |1423 |02:00:29 ~-~-> 02:00:32 |this stuff doesn't work. Look what it did here. Look what they completely they | ||
1425 | |1424 |02:00:32 ~-~-> 02:00:37 |completely missed the idea because I never sat down talk until today. When | ||
1426 | |1425 |02:00:37 ~-~-> 02:00:41 |you lose the precision elements of my PD arrays, you're seeing the truest | ||
1427 | |1426 |02:00:41 ~-~-> 02:00:45 |indication that there's manual intervention underway. That means | ||
1428 | |1427 |02:00:45 ~-~-> 02:00:51 |something is afoot. That means they're fucking around with the price. So | ||
1429 | |1428 |02:00:52 ~-~-> 02:00:55 |because you don't know what they're trying to do, chances are you probably | ||
1430 | |1429 |02:00:55 ~-~-> 02:00:59 |don't, and I don't know what they're going to be doing, does it make sense | ||
1431 | |1430 |02:00:59 ~-~-> 02:01:02 |for me to go in here and try to trade with large leverage on those days when I | ||
1432 | |1431 |02:01:02 ~-~-> 02:01:07 |know they're in there conducting business, hell no. Ain't no way. Ain't | ||
1433 | |1432 |02:01:07 ~-~-> 02:01:12 |no way. I'm going in there trying to do that, because I already have lost every | ||
1434 | |1433 |02:01:12 ~-~-> 02:01:18 |advantage I normally have. But you can still study. You can tape read, or you | ||
1435 | |1434 |02:01:18 ~-~-> 02:01:25 |wait for the obvious disruptions. You wait for the disruptions. It spent time | ||
1436 | |1435 |02:01:25 ~-~-> 02:01:30 |in this inefficiency over here. We've already did the damage up here. This was | ||
1437 | |1436 |02:01:30 ~-~-> 02:01:33 |your Judas swing of the day, even though it doesn't make a higher high than the | ||
1438 | |1437 |02:01:33 ~-~-> 02:01:37 |opening price. This was the Judas. This is the thing that led everybody astray, | ||
1439 | |1438 |02:01:37 ~-~-> 02:01:41 |if they want to be bullish, and it also neutralized anyone that was short miss | ||
1440 | |1439 |02:01:41 ~-~-> 02:01:46 |the stops here, here, and even on this little high here, it's completely gone. | ||
1441 | |1440 |02:01:46 ~-~-> 02:01:49 |They've they've turned all those buy stops that would protect the short | ||
1442 | |1441 |02:01:49 ~-~-> 02:01:53 |position. They turned them into buy market orders buying at the market. And | ||
1443 | |1442 |02:01:53 ~-~-> 02:01:56 |anyone that would have used a breakout above this high here they are tripped | ||
1444 | |1443 |02:01:56 ~-~-> 02:02:00 |long. It doesn't matter what the ratio is to how many people bought long as a | ||
1445 | |1444 |02:02:00 ~-~-> 02:02:04 |new long position above this high or how many were using this area here to | ||
1446 | |1445 |02:02:04 ~-~-> 02:02:07 |protect their short position? It doesn't matter to me. I don't need a book map to | ||
1447 | |1446 |02:02:07 ~-~-> 02:02:11 |tell me how many contracts. Supposedly, I don't need that shit. You don't need | ||
1448 | |1447 |02:02:11 ~-~-> 02:02:15 |that shit. And I know if they know anything about me, they don't like me. I | ||
1449 | |1448 |02:02:15 ~-~-> 02:02:19 |say that stuff. It's bad for sales, or it's by it's bad publicity. But I'm | ||
1450 | |1449 |02:02:19 ~-~-> 02:02:25 |teaching you to do this independent of me and of everything else. But if this | ||
1451 | |1450 |02:02:26 ~-~-> 02:02:31 |been ran up here, this was all done by design with a hand that was not | ||
1452 | |1451 |02:02:31 ~-~-> 02:02:36 |artificially driven. This was not algorithmic. This is 100% manipulation. | ||
1453 | |1452 |02:02:36 ~-~-> 02:02:39 |And then it went back down in and look how muddy it is inside the inefficiency | ||
1454 | |1453 |02:02:39 ~-~-> 02:02:44 |again, inside that pink box, and then we see it drop down. This is where the | ||
1455 | |1454 |02:02:44 ~-~-> 02:02:48 |algorithms firing on what it would normally do. Then it drops down, and | ||
1456 | |1455 |02:02:48 ~-~-> 02:02:54 |then right in here. This is where manual innovation came in. Everybody wants to | ||
1457 | |1456 |02:02:54 ~-~-> 02:02:59 |get out here. So anyone that's short Now, where's their stop loss? What is | ||
1458 | |1457 |02:02:59 ~-~-> 02:03:04 |this smooth highs. Let me roll it up with it. You can see it. See this set | ||
1459 | |1458 |02:03:04 ~-~-> 02:03:08 |right there, lower high than that one. So that means it's valid. What relative | ||
1460 | |1459 |02:03:08 ~-~-> 02:03:14 |equal high. So they intervene here. They pump it all the way up, they consolidate | ||
1461 | |1460 |02:03:14 ~-~-> 02:03:17 |it in here, and then jam it right up above this inefficiency, clear the | ||
1462 | |1461 |02:03:17 ~-~-> 02:03:21 |stops. And then that's why you see it repel aggressively. Then takes out that | ||
1463 | |1462 |02:03:21 ~-~-> 02:03:24 |low and then it goes to top. Goes to target. But anyone that went short in | ||
1464 | |1463 |02:03:24 ~-~-> 02:03:28 |here or Trailer Stop Loss, they don't get to have that ticket rod down here. | ||
1465 | |1464 |02:03:29 ~-~-> 02:03:34 |Their ticket gets punched here, and they don't get the prize they get. If they're | ||
1466 | |1465 |02:03:34 ~-~-> 02:03:39 |lucky, maybe their commission cost covered or small loss, but they don't | ||
1467 | |1466 |02:03:39 ~-~-> 02:03:42 |make money, but they're frustrated because it goes down here where they | ||
1468 | |1467 |02:03:42 ~-~-> 02:03:46 |thought I was going to go, and then after this, market retraces back up into | ||
1469 | |1468 |02:03:46 ~-~-> 02:03:51 |the inefficiency trace at the top of the inefficiency here breaks lower, and | ||
1470 | |1469 |02:03:51 ~-~-> 02:03:55 |everything returns back to what algorithmic delivery. Everything goes | ||
1471 | |1470 |02:03:55 ~-~-> 02:04:01 |back to precision, price point delivery, but manipulation, manipulation, and I'm | ||
1472 | |1471 |02:04:01 ~-~-> 02:04:06 |sorry Wyckoff doesn't fucking teach you that. Okay, it doesn't happen in Elliott | ||
1473 | |1472 |02:04:06 ~-~-> 02:04:10 |Wave and pitchfork bullshit from Andrews doesn't have it either. Stop trying to | ||
1474 | |1473 |02:04:10 ~-~-> 02:04:16 |talk nonsense, recognizing characteristics where the price is | ||
1475 | |1474 |02:04:16 ~-~-> 02:04:26 |delivered artificially by AI algorithmic versus when someone's in there stirring | ||
1476 | |1475 |02:04:26 ~-~-> 02:04:32 |the pot up, if you can't recognize that. And this is not an easy lesson, I'm | ||
1477 | |1476 |02:04:32 ~-~-> 02:04:35 |honest with you, it's not an easy lesson, and it's something that I can't | ||
1478 | |1477 |02:04:35 ~-~-> 02:04:39 |teach in a book. So when you when you hear about the books and you're excited | ||
1479 | |1478 |02:04:39 ~-~-> 02:04:44 |about the books and whatnot, just understand that they're limited in their | ||
1480 | |1479 |02:04:44 ~-~-> 02:04:49 |capacity to try to instruct. That's why books aren't really good for teaching | ||
1481 | |1480 |02:04:49 ~-~-> 02:04:54 |trading. They're not they're absolutely not things from other traders, | ||
1482 | |1481 |02:04:54 ~-~-> 02:04:59 |experiences and how they wrestle through them. They are good for books. | ||
1483 | |1482 |02:05:00 ~-~-> 02:05:05 |Technically, how to trade a market. Could you know, could I have taught the | ||
1484 | |1483 |02:05:05 ~-~-> 02:05:10 |optimal trade entry and silver bullet? Oh, yeah, sure, there's this real | ||
1485 | |1484 |02:05:10 ~-~-> 02:05:15 |straightforward, simple models, but being able to read price action, | ||
1486 | |1485 |02:05:15 ~-~-> 02:05:21 |understanding the difficulties of having a high resistance liquidity run versus a | ||
1487 | |1486 |02:05:21 ~-~-> 02:05:26 |low resistance liquidity, right? It's not something that can be easily | ||
1488 | |1487 |02:05:26 ~-~-> 02:05:31 |described like, I can show you a static chart, okay? I can show you a static | ||
1489 | |1488 |02:05:31 ~-~-> 02:05:36 |chart in book chapters and everything else, and show you before and after and | ||
1490 | |1489 |02:05:36 ~-~-> 02:05:40 |what was commonly going to be referred to as well. This is obviously hindsight. | ||
1491 | |1490 |02:05:41 ~-~-> 02:05:45 |So this person has the benefit of hindsight. Now, contrast that with where | ||
1492 | |1491 |02:05:45 ~-~-> 02:05:48 |I'm sitting with you live, telling you in advance that this is going to be a | ||
1493 | |1492 |02:05:48 ~-~-> 02:05:53 |problematic, lackluster session, but I told you where I want to see price go. | ||
1494 | |1493 |02:05:54 ~-~-> 02:05:59 |You have no excuse to see that what I was explaining and the difficulty in how | ||
1495 | |1494 |02:05:59 ~-~-> 02:06:03 |price was delivering today. It was already pre predetermined. I knew it was | ||
1496 | |1495 |02:06:03 ~-~-> 02:06:08 |going to deliver like this. I knew it. And you hear people say, when you when | ||
1497 | |1496 |02:06:08 ~-~-> 02:06:11 |you hear people say they they're trying to predict price. We're not trying to | ||
1498 | |1497 |02:06:11 ~-~-> 02:06:16 |predict price. We're trying to react the price. That's why you're fucking losing | ||
1499 | |1498 |02:06:16 ~-~-> 02:06:21 |you're trying to react to something that you didn't foresee happening, like if | ||
1500 | |1499 |02:06:21 ~-~-> 02:06:24 |you don't know that there's a pothole down that road that you drive down every | ||
1501 | |1500 |02:06:24 ~-~-> 02:06:27 |single day, but you go to work, what are you going to do? You're going to hit it | ||
1502 | |1501 |02:06:27 ~-~-> 02:06:31 |every single time. You need to replace your tire and your tie rod and your axle | ||
1503 | |1502 |02:06:31 ~-~-> 02:06:36 |and your struts, six seven times in a row before you realize you know what, I | ||
1504 | |1503 |02:06:36 ~-~-> 02:06:41 |probably should go a different way, or be prepared to go in the other lane, | ||
1505 | |1504 |02:06:41 ~-~-> 02:06:44 |even if it is illegal, for a moment when it's safe to do so to go around that | ||
1506 | |1505 |02:06:44 ~-~-> 02:06:51 |pothole, they're going to say that you have to react to running over that | ||
1507 | |1506 |02:06:51 ~-~-> 02:06:55 |fucking pothole and blowing out your front end alignment. We're not trying to | ||
1508 | |1507 |02:06:55 ~-~-> 02:07:01 |predict the hazard of that pothole. Now, contrast that with how I teach there are | ||
1509 | |1508 |02:07:01 ~-~-> 02:07:05 |times when you're going to be cannibalized by people that are smarter | ||
1510 | |1509 |02:07:05 ~-~-> 02:07:09 |than you. They're in control of Christ, and you can argue about all you want, | ||
1511 | |1510 |02:07:09 ~-~-> 02:07:14 |but that's the underlying truth of the matter, and the sooner you align | ||
1512 | |1511 |02:07:14 ~-~-> 02:07:18 |yourself with the thinking like that, it doesn't mean you're a cultist, with me. | ||
1513 | |1512 |02:07:18 ~-~-> 02:07:21 |Doesn't mean that you're one of these conspiracy theorists. It means that | ||
1514 | |1513 |02:07:21 ~-~-> 02:07:23 |you're a realist, because you can clearly see clearly see it's what's | ||
1515 | |1514 |02:07:23 ~-~-> 02:07:29 |going on, and it gives you the narrative of why price is doing what it does and | ||
1516 | |1515 |02:07:29 ~-~-> 02:07:34 |when it's not doing it. Algorithmically, you can recognize it. You can see it, | ||
1517 | |1516 |02:07:34 ~-~-> 02:07:40 |because the clue is it's losing its precision. Elements around my PV arrays. | ||
1518 | |1517 |02:07:41 ~-~-> 02:07:45 |That's the benefit. If you start seeing every inefficiency, spending a whole lot | ||
1519 | |1518 |02:07:45 ~-~-> 02:07:49 |of time, price being inside them, you already know what you're inside of now. | ||
1520 | |1519 |02:07:50 ~-~-> 02:07:55 |You're already you already know that lesson now. But how can I teach that to | ||
1521 | |1520 |02:07:55 ~-~-> 02:07:58 |you? Just in a couple set of pictures in a book and feel like I've done a good | ||
1522 | |1521 |02:07:58 ~-~-> 02:08:01 |job at I couldn't feel I couldn't sleep at night, saying that I wrote a chapter | ||
1523 | |1522 |02:08:01 ~-~-> 02:08:07 |or two, teaching this and feeling like I've done my due diligence and you | ||
1524 | |1523 |02:08:07 ~-~-> 02:08:11 |should have picked up on everything and subtle nuance, it's impossible. You have | ||
1525 | |1524 |02:08:11 ~-~-> 02:08:15 |to see me first tell you what it's going to do and how it's going to deliver, and | ||
1526 | |1525 |02:08:15 ~-~-> 02:08:18 |the difficulty it's going to deliver. And then we've all watched it today. | ||
1527 | |1526 |02:08:19 ~-~-> 02:08:23 |That's somebody that knows what the fuck is going on. That's somebody that knows | ||
1528 | |1527 |02:08:23 ~-~-> 02:08:26 |what is going on behind the scenes. That's somebody that you can trust as a | ||
1529 | |1528 |02:08:26 ~-~-> 02:08:29 |mentor. Because I'm not telling you to send me any money, and I'm doing it for | ||
1530 | |1529 |02:08:29 ~-~-> 02:08:37 |free, and you're watching it work every damn day. So my question to you is, can | ||
1531 | |1530 |02:08:37 ~-~-> 02:08:40 |you recognize that here in this example, I'm not saying you're going to know it | ||
1532 | |1531 |02:08:40 ~-~-> 02:08:46 |in the future, but can you now know when you go through your charts, when you | ||
1533 | |1532 |02:08:46 ~-~-> 02:08:50 |have your first presented fair value gap or any inefficiency after that one | ||
1534 | |1533 |02:08:50 ~-~-> 02:08:55 |forms, how does price behave at them or while they're in them? Because if you | ||
1535 | |1534 |02:08:55 ~-~-> 02:09:01 |start seeing gaps, the buy side imbalance, sell side efficiency, or | ||
1536 | |1535 |02:09:01 ~-~-> 02:09:05 |Sibi, vice versa, up close, fairbag app or down close, Fairbanks all it is | ||
1537 | |1536 |02:09:05 ~-~-> 02:09:11 |basically, if price is spending a lot of time or revisiting it multiple times | ||
1538 | |1537 |02:09:11 ~-~-> 02:09:16 |before moving in your favor, you already know now what you're in. So what would | ||
1539 | |1538 |02:09:16 ~-~-> 02:09:21 |you do in that instance? In my opinion, you should immediately drop down to the | ||
1540 | |1539 |02:09:21 ~-~-> 02:09:25 |lowest leverage if you're going to if you're going to keep the trade on, go | ||
1541 | |1540 |02:09:25 ~-~-> 02:09:30 |down to the well, if you're trading the Mini, if you have like, several | ||
1542 | |1541 |02:09:30 ~-~-> 02:09:35 |contracts on, as soon as you recognize it that that's what's going on, slice it | ||
1543 | |1542 |02:09:35 ~-~-> 02:09:39 |down to just one contract, because number one, you probably would be | ||
1544 | |1543 |02:09:39 ~-~-> 02:09:43 |booking some kind of profit. By doing that, you're reducing risk aggressively, | ||
1545 | |1544 |02:09:43 ~-~-> 02:09:47 |which is absolutely good. That's a good thing. That is not you being scared or a | ||
1546 | |1545 |02:09:47 ~-~-> 02:09:53 |pussy young men, that's you being a risk manager. That's you being aggressive | ||
1547 | |1546 |02:09:53 ~-~-> 02:09:58 |about protecting what's yours. The ladies are going to have no problem | ||
1548 | |1547 |02:09:58 ~-~-> 02:10:01 |taking that exercise on. They go ahead. Up. Oh yeah, it's a problem. Let me, let | ||
1549 | |1548 |02:10:01 ~-~-> 02:10:05 |me remove the risk. Or they may say, You know what? To hell with this. I'm going | ||
1550 | |1549 |02:10:05 ~-~-> 02:10:09 |to trade on another setup, another day, and I'll just take reader paper, trade | ||
1551 | |1550 |02:10:09 ~-~-> 02:10:14 |it, because they're going to be more risk adverse than you are young men. But | ||
1552 | |1551 |02:10:14 ~-~-> 02:10:18 |the young men that simply just want to be a warrior, what do they do? Well, my | ||
1553 | |1552 |02:10:18 ~-~-> 02:10:22 |advice, they would drop it down to the lowest leverage it can have. If you're | ||
1554 | |1553 |02:10:22 ~-~-> 02:10:26 |trading with micros and you have multiple micros on, go down to just one. | ||
1555 | |1554 |02:10:27 ~-~-> 02:10:32 |That way you have zero reason to be panicked, even if it comes back and | ||
1556 | |1555 |02:10:32 ~-~-> 02:10:36 |stops you up. Who cares? It took the least from you. If you're going to have | ||
1557 | |1556 |02:10:36 ~-~-> 02:10:40 |something taken from you, wouldn't you like to have a dummy wallet in today's | ||
1558 | |1557 |02:10:40 ~-~-> 02:10:46 |age, that's what I would have keep a wallet in, in your front pocket. That's | ||
1559 | |1558 |02:10:46 ~-~-> 02:10:49 |a slim wallet. That's where you keep your stuff. But if you get held up, you | ||
1560 | |1559 |02:10:49 ~-~-> 02:10:54 |should have a back pocket wallet that's just a dummy. One never thought about | ||
1561 | |1560 |02:10:54 ~-~-> 02:10:59 |that. Did you someone hold you up here and in here? Put three, you know, three | ||
1562 | |1561 |02:10:59 ~-~-> 02:11:04 |or $4 in there. Fold it up, put a condom in, make it look like it's something | ||
1563 | |1562 |02:11:04 ~-~-> 02:11:09 |real. I know you guys don't use Commons anymore, just like that. You're taking | ||
1564 | |1563 |02:11:09 ~-~-> 02:11:14 |risks there. Same thing. You're using that same approach. Well, here you're | ||
1565 | |1564 |02:11:14 ~-~-> 02:11:17 |going to get more than an STD trading in the market like this. If you don't | ||
1566 | |1565 |02:11:17 ~-~-> 02:11:23 |recognize the risks, you can get taken out and you do it to yourself. You keep | ||
1567 | |1566 |02:11:23 ~-~-> 02:11:28 |taking those unnecessary risks, sleeping with these grenades on the weekend, | ||
1568 | |1567 |02:11:28 ~-~-> 02:11:33 |unprotected. Well, you're taking trades and expecting precision in times where | ||
1569 | |1568 |02:11:33 ~-~-> 02:11:37 |it's not likely to happen because of the parameters that were in play this | ||
1570 | |1569 |02:11:37 ~-~-> 02:11:43 |morning. So my question to you is, are you going to take the initiative to | ||
1571 | |1570 |02:11:43 ~-~-> 02:11:48 |start looking at price like this? Are you going to compare every individual | ||
1572 | |1571 |02:11:48 ~-~-> 02:11:54 |day going forward, recognize the characteristics of that day? Was it | ||
1573 | |1572 |02:11:54 ~-~-> 02:11:59 |under the delivery of high resistance? That means it's having a hard time | ||
1574 | |1573 |02:11:59 ~-~-> 02:12:03 |getting to targets a lot more deeper retracements. And the way you determine | ||
1575 | |1574 |02:12:03 ~-~-> 02:12:10 |this, it's so visually recognizable by my PD array, the inefficiencies, the | ||
1576 | |1575 |02:12:10 ~-~-> 02:12:16 |gaps, if price is spending a lot of time in them, you are absolutely in high | ||
1577 | |1576 |02:12:16 ~-~-> 02:12:22 |resistance liquidity run conditions. That is not seek and destroy. That is | ||
1578 | |1577 |02:12:22 ~-~-> 02:12:26 |not the CHOP is real. It just means that you're going to have to submit to more | ||
1579 | |1578 |02:12:26 ~-~-> 02:12:30 |time and then start looking. When you're bearish, you start looking for the | ||
1580 | |1579 |02:12:30 ~-~-> 02:12:34 |sweeps of above old highs. So these conditions create, what turtle soups. | ||
1581 | |1580 |02:12:37 ~-~-> 02:12:42 |Light bulb just went on, didn't Oh, now let's roll it back, and I'm going to | ||
1582 | |1581 |02:12:42 ~-~-> 02:12:47 |close the session, because we've been at it for a long time. Today. Here's a high | ||
1583 | |1582 |02:12:50 ~-~-> 02:12:54 |Judah swing up the upper half. Ideally we want to see this left open on a low | ||
1584 | |1583 |02:12:54 ~-~-> 02:12:58 |resistance liquidity run day. This would have never happened. It would have it | ||
1585 | |1584 |02:12:58 ~-~-> 02:13:01 |would have already done enough in here by trading here failing to go to | ||
1586 | |1585 |02:13:01 ~-~-> 02:13:05 |constant encroachment and enrolled out of it, that would have been enough. But | ||
1587 | |1586 |02:13:05 ~-~-> 02:13:09 |because it is spending too much time here, and it worked too many times, here | ||
1588 | |1587 |02:13:09 ~-~-> 02:13:13 |is already indicating that, okay, this is probably not something you've already | ||
1589 | |1588 |02:13:13 ~-~-> 02:13:16 |watched me live stream. And I was like, I'm going to take a trade. I'm going | ||
1590 | |1589 |02:13:16 ~-~-> 02:13:18 |with it. And no, I'm not doing this. And if I would have took a trade, it would | ||
1591 | |1590 |02:13:18 ~-~-> 02:13:21 |have been a losing trade. And you guys all struggle with the idea you're hiding | ||
1592 | |1591 |02:13:21 ~-~-> 02:13:25 |your losses. ICT, I know you're I know you're hiding them. You don't even know | ||
1593 | |1592 |02:13:25 ~-~-> 02:13:29 |the skill set I'm demonstrating here again. I'm proving to you how I can see | ||
1594 | |1593 |02:13:29 ~-~-> 02:13:32 |that it's not favorable. I'm not here trying to impress you with doing | ||
1595 | |1594 |02:13:32 ~-~-> 02:13:36 |executions. I'm teaching you how to keep your money so that we can stay in the | ||
1596 | |1595 |02:13:36 ~-~-> 02:13:43 |game long enough so that way my concepts will yield themselves to you. You a | ||
1597 | |1596 |02:13:43 ~-~-> 02:13:52 |turtle suit. Here's a high runs, the buy stops, drops relative equal highs, runs | ||
1598 | |1597 |02:13:52 ~-~-> 02:14:03 |the stops, sells off high runs the stops sells off. High runs the sales, runs, | ||
1599 | |1598 |02:14:03 ~-~-> 02:14:09 |the buy stops, sells off. Do you see what's happening there? That's a | ||
1600 | |1599 |02:14:09 ~-~-> 02:14:14 |characteristic of a high resistance, liquidity run market if you're bearish, | ||
1601 | |1600 |02:14:14 ~-~-> 02:14:20 |look for turtle soup sells. That means look for small, little, micro shifts in | ||
1602 | |1601 |02:14:20 ~-~-> 02:14:25 |market structure that would be viewed bullishly. But in reality, it's just | ||
1603 | |1602 |02:14:25 ~-~-> 02:14:29 |them taking the short term buy stops, and they're accumulating the positions | ||
1604 | |1603 |02:14:29 ~-~-> 02:14:35 |that those stops will afford them by being short. And then eventually you'll | ||
1605 | |1604 |02:14:35 ~-~-> 02:14:38 |get to these targets here, and eventually it went even lower there, and | ||
1606 | |1605 |02:14:38 ~-~-> 02:14:47 |this is where we're at now. Is this an easy day, not for a new trader. It's | ||
1607 | |1606 |02:14:47 ~-~-> 02:14:53 |not, not for not for someone that's destroying it's not, but I'm teaching | ||
1608 | |1607 |02:14:53 ~-~-> 02:14:56 |you how, because this is going to happen to you. You're going to be met with | ||
1609 | |1608 |02:14:56 ~-~-> 02:15:00 |this. Caleb's going to see this. You're going to you're going to. Encounter | ||
1610 | |1609 |02:15:00 ~-~-> 02:15:04 |eventually, and if you don't take this information I've shared today and the | ||
1611 | |1610 |02:15:04 ~-~-> 02:15:08 |recognition of how to determine a high risk, this is it's also a lesson for | ||
1612 | |1611 |02:15:08 ~-~-> 02:15:14 |you, Tanya, because sometimes, as proud as I am and as good as you are, | ||
1613 | |1612 |02:15:14 ~-~-> 02:15:20 |sometimes you mislabel days, and I hope you can appreciate this and not be upset | ||
1614 | |1613 |02:15:20 ~-~-> 02:15:24 |by it. But sometimes you misclassify days with seek and destroy, and it's | ||
1615 | |1614 |02:15:24 ~-~-> 02:15:30 |not, it's just simply high resistance. So you're not going to see two days of | ||
1616 | |1615 |02:15:30 ~-~-> 02:15:33 |seek and destroying the same week. That never will happen. It will never, ever | ||
1617 | |1616 |02:15:33 ~-~-> 02:15:38 |happen. But you will have a potential seek and destroy day, and then you'll | ||
1618 | |1617 |02:15:38 ~-~-> 02:15:42 |have a day that's high resistance, liquidity, and you'll have it like this, | ||
1619 | |1618 |02:15:42 ~-~-> 02:15:46 |where it's a lot of give and take back and forth. So just be careful with the | ||
1620 | |1619 |02:15:46 ~-~-> 02:15:51 |with how you're classifying, because when, when you're saying and maybe you | ||
1621 | |1620 |02:15:51 ~-~-> 02:15:53 |you've done it yourself. I'm just pointing out something with another | ||
1622 | |1621 |02:15:53 ~-~-> 02:15:56 |student, and maybe I should have done in an email. Maybe I should have done it | ||
1623 | |1622 |02:15:56 ~-~-> 02:16:02 |private. But I want you to know that this is something that is a stark | ||
1624 | |1623 |02:16:02 ~-~-> 02:16:07 |contrast to seek and destroy, and if you just mislabel it as seek, and shortly, | ||
1625 | |1624 |02:16:07 ~-~-> 02:16:10 |what you're trying to do is file it away as well. It's hard, and I'll just, I'll | ||
1626 | |1625 |02:16:10 ~-~-> 02:16:14 |just justify by saying it's seek and destroy when it's technically not. And | ||
1627 | |1626 |02:16:14 ~-~-> 02:16:19 |if I sat back and just let you say it's what it was or wasn't, rather, I'm | ||
1628 | |1627 |02:16:20 ~-~-> 02:16:23 |leaving you in ignorance, and I'm not trying to leave you in ignorance, and I | ||
1629 | |1628 |02:16:23 ~-~-> 02:16:26 |don't want anybody that's listening to you to think that it's steep and destroy | ||
1630 | |1629 |02:16:26 ~-~-> 02:16:31 |either. So what you're many times describing is high resistance liquidity | ||
1631 | |1630 |02:16:31 ~-~-> 02:16:36 |conditions. And the easiest way that you and anyone else that's wanting to learn | ||
1632 | |1631 |02:16:36 ~-~-> 02:16:42 |how to do this can recognize it is when you see your value gaps form? Are we | ||
1633 | |1632 |02:16:42 ~-~-> 02:16:46 |spending a lot of time marking price in them? Because that's the clearest | ||
1634 | |1633 |02:16:46 ~-~-> 02:16:51 |indication. That's all I need, and it's all I ever use to determine it. So it's | ||
1635 | |1634 |02:16:51 ~-~-> 02:16:54 |not like I'm hiding anything from you. There's no X extra stuff behind the | ||
1636 | |1635 |02:16:54 ~-~-> 02:16:59 |scenes. There's no special PD array or protocol. It's just simply | ||
1637 | |1636 |02:16:59 ~-~-> 02:17:04 |inefficiencies should not be seen with multiple candles laying inside of them | ||
1638 | |1637 |02:17:04 ~-~-> 02:17:08 |over and over and over again, or revisiting them multiple times. That | ||
1639 | |1638 |02:17:08 ~-~-> 02:17:11 |tells you that you're in high resistance liquidity conditions. That means it's | ||
1640 | |1639 |02:17:11 ~-~-> 02:17:16 |going to be a lot more range bound. And then when it explores new lows, it'll | ||
1641 | |1640 |02:17:16 ~-~-> 02:17:21 |retrace back into the range. When it creates the new low here. It gets to our | ||
1642 | |1641 |02:17:21 ~-~-> 02:17:25 |target. It retraces back into the range. And what is it doing? It's setting up | ||
1643 | |1642 |02:17:25 ~-~-> 02:17:30 |highs to run them create turtle suit, drops a little bit, takes out the lows, | ||
1644 | |1643 |02:17:31 ~-~-> 02:17:35 |retraces, takes out the low retraces one more time. Turtle suit, then the real | ||
1645 | |1644 |02:17:35 ~-~-> 02:17:36 |move, | ||
1646 | |1645 |02:17:37 ~-~-> 02:17:41 |smaller, little turtle suits in here, like that one there. Study it this high | ||
1647 | |1646 |02:17:41 ~-~-> 02:17:45 |to that high, it's all it's doing. It's coming back to get any trail stop | ||
1648 | |1647 |02:17:45 ~-~-> 02:17:49 |losses. That's the nature and what's going on behind the scenes, in high | ||
1649 | |1648 |02:17:49 ~-~-> 02:17:54 |resistance liquidity conditions, they're running the stops. That means they're | ||
1650 | |1649 |02:17:54 ~-~-> 02:17:58 |accumulating and building positions because there was not enough orders for | ||
1651 | |1650 |02:17:58 ~-~-> 02:18:04 |them to book with their greed, that's what's going on. So they're not allowing | ||
1652 | |1651 |02:18:04 ~-~-> 02:18:07 |the algorithm to deliver it, because the algorithm is not going to spend enough | ||
1653 | |1652 |02:18:07 ~-~-> 02:18:11 |time there for them to build their position. It's just going to be going | ||
1654 | |1653 |02:18:11 ~-~-> 02:18:14 |right to the tick and turn around, go other direction. So they intervene | ||
1655 | |1654 |02:18:14 ~-~-> 02:18:19 |manually by sending price artificially to these levels. So that way those stops | ||
1656 | |1655 |02:18:19 ~-~-> 02:18:23 |get engaged and they take the other side of their stops, and it allows them to | ||
1657 | |1656 |02:18:23 ~-~-> 02:18:30 |build their position on a very narrow range day. So hopefully it's been clear | ||
1658 | |1657 |02:18:30 ~-~-> 02:18:34 |enough. I can't imagine, in retrospect now how I could have done it any plainer | ||
1659 | |1658 |02:18:34 ~-~-> 02:18:39 |or simpler, because I'm really satisfied with what I've shared today. I'm content | ||
1660 | |1659 |02:18:39 ~-~-> 02:18:42 |with it. If there was a way for me to communicate it this way in a book, I | ||
1661 | |1660 |02:18:42 ~-~-> 02:18:46 |would be absolutely content with not having to mention it again. In another | ||
1662 | |1661 |02:18:46 ~-~-> 02:18:50 |portion of the book, it's like you've seen it. You watched me explain it. I | ||
1663 | |1662 |02:18:50 ~-~-> 02:18:54 |showed you the difficulties of why the prices were going to be like this today, | ||
1664 | |1663 |02:18:54 ~-~-> 02:18:59 |where it was going to go, the bias, it didn't take out the opening range, gap | ||
1665 | |1664 |02:18:59 ~-~-> 02:19:04 |high, and when it was trading up here, say, Okay, that's good. And now we want | ||
1666 | |1665 |02:19:04 ~-~-> 02:19:08 |to see everything is still in play for that sell side to be drawn to. But the | ||
1667 | |1666 |02:19:08 ~-~-> 02:19:12 |main takeaway is this, if you can't recognize these types of days early on, | ||
1668 | |1667 |02:19:12 ~-~-> 02:19:17 |you're going to fall victim to them. You'll be right about where your | ||
1669 | |1668 |02:19:17 ~-~-> 02:19:21 |analysis is going and where the price is going to go, but you won't be in the | ||
1670 | |1669 |02:19:21 ~-~-> 02:19:24 |trade, because you're gonna get knocked out or scared out of it, and that's | ||
1671 | |1670 |02:19:24 ~-~-> 02:19:27 |happening because of what I'm showing you here today. So I'm gonna leave you | ||
1672 | |1671 |02:19:27 ~-~-> 02:19:32 |with this question, and I'm gonna close the session now, do you wanna trade in | ||
1673 | |1672 |02:19:32 ~-~-> 02:19:37 |days like this? Because you have time to do so, or your peers, your friends | ||
1674 | |1673 |02:19:37 ~-~-> 02:19:41 |online, are trading and they made money, or they are going to try to do something | ||
1675 | |1674 |02:19:41 ~-~-> 02:19:47 |today. Are you chasing that herd mentality, or are you trying to be an | ||
1676 | |1675 |02:19:47 ~-~-> 02:19:51 |apex predator that simply goes out and gets their pound of flesh, and they're | ||
1677 | |1676 |02:19:51 ~-~-> 02:19:54 |not in there trying to show what they did? They're just going out there to | ||
1678 | |1677 |02:19:54 ~-~-> 02:19:57 |eat. Because if that's what you're trying to do, and you want to go out | ||
1679 | |1678 |02:19:57 ~-~-> 02:20:02 |there and just make money and have the easiest. Pathway to that and the least | ||
1680 | |1679 |02:20:02 ~-~-> 02:20:07 |demand, least amount of adversaries in front of you, preventing you to get to | ||
1681 | |1680 |02:20:07 ~-~-> 02:20:10 |it easily. If you want the hard way, you're going to trade in days like this. | ||
1682 | |1681 |02:20:13 ~-~-> 02:20:16 |If you want the easy ones, you're going to see when the inefficiencies are not | ||
1683 | |1682 |02:20:16 ~-~-> 02:20:22 |being spent with multiple candles and trading back and forth inside them. | ||
1684 | |1683 |02:20:22 ~-~-> 02:20:27 |You're not seeing them hit and respond and deliver right away, and you're | ||
1685 | |1684 |02:20:27 ~-~-> 02:20:32 |losing the element of precision. Notice that that is the main takeaways. There's | ||
1686 | |1685 |02:20:32 ~-~-> 02:20:36 |two of them here today. Inefficiencies are spent too much time in and they | ||
1687 | |1686 |02:20:36 ~-~-> 02:20:43 |revisited multiple times, and the precision delivery is not there. That's | ||
1688 | |1687 |02:20:43 ~-~-> 02:20:47 |not them changing the algorithm. That's just them simply disrupting order flow | ||
1689 | |1688 |02:20:47 ~-~-> 02:20:51 |for that session, for that day, and everything will return back to normal. | ||
1690 | |1689 |02:20:51 ~-~-> 02:20:54 |On Monday, everything will be doing, you know, until they want to go in here and | ||
1691 | |1690 |02:20:54 ~-~-> 02:20:58 |do it again. But you can't predict all the time when they're going to do it. I | ||
1692 | |1691 |02:20:58 ~-~-> 02:21:02 |can't do it all the time either. The day might start off good, but then I start | ||
1693 | |1692 |02:21:02 ~-~-> 02:21:05 |seeing, Oh, wait a minute, it's starting to do something. Go back and watch the | ||
1694 | |1693 |02:21:05 ~-~-> 02:21:10 |previous sessions where I was telling you how to, I can't remember what. Maybe | ||
1695 | |1694 |02:21:10 ~-~-> 02:21:15 |you can help me out. I'll mention it in Caleb's video tonight or tomorrow. When | ||
1696 | |1695 |02:21:15 ~-~-> 02:21:19 |I do the video for him, it's the video where I'm looking at taking an | ||
1697 | |1696 |02:21:19 ~-~-> 02:21:22 |execution. I'm like, Man, I don't like this. No, I don't like this. And I kept | ||
1698 | |1697 |02:21:22 ~-~-> 02:21:27 |myself out of seeking. Oh, yeah, it's Monday. It was an actual seek and | ||
1699 | |1698 |02:21:27 ~-~-> 02:21:37 |destroy. So that skill set came by result of me studying like I taught you | ||
1700 | |1699 |02:21:37 ~-~-> 02:21:42 |today. The lessons that you really need are the lessons where I'm not teaching | ||
1701 | |1700 |02:21:42 ~-~-> 02:21:45 |you how to push a button to get into a trade. It's understanding and | ||
1702 | |1701 |02:21:45 ~-~-> 02:21:49 |recognizing how you're going to lose your ass, how you're going to lose money | ||
1703 | |1702 |02:21:49 ~-~-> 02:21:52 |and not realize how you're losing it, so that we can't prevent it from happening | ||
1704 | |1703 |02:21:52 ~-~-> 02:21:57 |again. Whereas now you have a skill set that once you start seeing these | ||
1705 | |1704 |02:21:57 ~-~-> 02:22:01 |inefficiencies, if price is spending too much time in them, you already have your | ||
1706 | |1705 |02:22:01 ~-~-> 02:22:06 |first warning sign. Even if they start off with a large range gap, it can fall | ||
1707 | |1706 |02:22:06 ~-~-> 02:22:10 |into this. And then what you need to do is, Okay, where is it trying to go? | ||
1708 | |1707 |02:22:10 ~-~-> 02:22:14 |Technically, higher or lower, and you had to stick with that bias. So in this | ||
1709 | |1708 |02:22:14 ~-~-> 02:22:18 |case, we were bearish. So every time in that day, you're going to see they're | ||
1710 | |1709 |02:22:18 ~-~-> 02:22:22 |going to take out highs for the Express purposes of unseating those short | ||
1711 | |1710 |02:22:22 ~-~-> 02:22:28 |holders that trail their protective buy stops lower, locking in profits. The | ||
1712 | |1711 |02:22:28 ~-~-> 02:22:31 |market will be manual intervened. They'll run up. Well, here it is again. | ||
1713 | |1712 |02:22:33 ~-~-> 02:22:37 |Here's a high. Runs up, takes out what that high, and then what does this look | ||
1714 | |1713 |02:22:37 ~-~-> 02:22:40 |like to everybody else? That's a bull flag. That's bullshit. That's what that | ||
1715 | |1714 |02:22:40 ~-~-> 02:22:47 |is, and then it drops, and it attacks the lows here. So by recognizing and | ||
1716 | |1715 |02:22:47 ~-~-> 02:22:53 |seeing what the market's likely to do in this type of environment, it at least | ||
1717 | |1716 |02:22:53 ~-~-> 02:22:58 |gives you the ability to say to yourself, is it really worth my time and | ||
1718 | |1717 |02:22:58 ~-~-> 02:23:05 |energy to trade in this? Because I might not be successful versus when it's a low | ||
1719 | |1718 |02:23:05 ~-~-> 02:23:10 |resistance liquidity run day, where it's just so easy to fucking make money, it's | ||
1720 | |1719 |02:23:10 ~-~-> 02:23:14 |like, what the hell this is like candy literally, like a candy store going in | ||
1721 | |1720 |02:23:14 ~-~-> 02:23:18 |there and taking positions over and over and over again, long and short, up, | ||
1722 | |1721 |02:23:18 ~-~-> 02:23:22 |down, up down, all over the place, because it's not being manipulated | ||
1723 | |1722 |02:23:22 ~-~-> 02:23:26 |artificially by manual intervention, where they go in and disrupt everything | ||
1724 | |1723 |02:23:28 ~-~-> 02:23:34 |left to its own. Script. Price will be perfect. It'll stop to the tick or one | ||
1725 | |1724 |02:23:34 ~-~-> 02:23:40 |tick above where you think it's going to go to afford that entry price. But when | ||
1726 | |1725 |02:23:40 ~-~-> 02:23:43 |you don't see those signatures, that's the surest sign that you need to either | ||
1727 | |1726 |02:23:43 ~-~-> 02:23:47 |move to the sidelines or drop your leverage to the lowest degree you can, | ||
1728 | |1727 |02:23:49 ~-~-> 02:23:54 |or simply paper trader or tapered it and exercise discipline over yourself, | ||
1729 | |1728 |02:23:55 ~-~-> 02:24:00 |develop self control, be responsible with your actions and know why you're | ||
1730 | |1729 |02:24:00 ~-~-> 02:24:04 |doing something, and if you know that you're going to be forcing yourself to | ||
1731 | |1730 |02:24:04 ~-~-> 02:24:09 |trade like this, that means that you are a gambler, and I promise you this, you | ||
1732 | |1731 |02:24:09 ~-~-> 02:24:13 |are going to blow your accounts. You're going to keep making the same mistakes. | ||
1733 | |1732 |02:24:13 ~-~-> 02:24:16 |You're never going to learn from them. You're going to do the same thing I did | ||
1734 | |1733 |02:24:16 ~-~-> 02:24:21 |for the first three and a half years, over and over and over again, never | ||
1735 | |1734 |02:24:21 ~-~-> 02:24:26 |learning your lesson and paying a higher price for your education than you | ||
1736 | |1735 |02:24:26 ~-~-> 02:24:30 |should. You don't have to keep blowing your accounts. You don't have to keep | ||
1737 | |1736 |02:24:30 ~-~-> 02:24:34 |spending needless hours doing dumb shit. These are the lessons that make the | ||
1738 | |1737 |02:24:34 ~-~-> 02:24:39 |money. These are the lessons because it's not about how much trading you get | ||
1739 | |1738 |02:24:39 ~-~-> 02:24:43 |done today or over the course of the week, is how much money you have made at | ||
1740 | |1739 |02:24:43 ~-~-> 02:24:47 |the end of the year, when you get your 1090 B, and most of you don't even know | ||
1741 | |1740 |02:24:47 ~-~-> 02:24:50 |the that is, that is a statement you get from your broker that says you made | ||
1742 | |1741 |02:24:50 ~-~-> 02:24:57 |money. That's, that's, that's what you get when you do things the right way | ||
1743 | |1742 |02:24:59 ~-~-> 02:25:04 |and. Should be your goal to make money, not to impress me, not to impress your | ||
1744 | |1743 |02:25:04 ~-~-> 02:25:10 |peers. Because, trust me, anything you do that novelty, that moment of, oh, | ||
1745 | |1744 |02:25:10 ~-~-> 02:25:13 |wow, you may have done something impressive, but they're not going to | ||
1746 | |1745 |02:25:13 ~-~-> 02:25:18 |tell you, as impressive as it may be to you. So why invite them to it? And why | ||
1747 | |1746 |02:25:18 ~-~-> 02:25:22 |ask yourself to trade in these environments when there's better trading | ||
1748 | |1747 |02:25:22 ~-~-> 02:25:27 |environments, and that's what I teach my students. That's what was that is what | ||
1749 | |1748 |02:25:27 ~-~-> 02:25:31 |paid mentorship. Was paid mentorship with ICT, the private mentorship was | ||
1750 | |1749 |02:25:31 ~-~-> 02:25:37 |teaching them the stark contrast between these types of days and these types of | ||
1751 | |1750 |02:25:37 ~-~-> 02:25:43 |environments, recognizing them then teaching them over time with skill that | ||
1752 | |1751 |02:25:43 ~-~-> 02:25:47 |you learn and you glean from trading with a low resistance conditions where | ||
1753 | |1752 |02:25:47 ~-~-> 02:25:52 |it's easy to trade, you get really, really good trading in those but | ||
1754 | |1753 |02:25:52 ~-~-> 02:25:57 |studying when the market's like this, you will start to see how, even in these | ||
1755 | |1754 |02:25:57 ~-~-> 02:26:02 |days, you can take take setups, But they're far and few between. Whereas a | ||
1756 | |1755 |02:26:02 ~-~-> 02:26:05 |low resistance liquidity run day, I could be buying and selling all day | ||
1757 | |1756 |02:26:05 ~-~-> 02:26:11 |long, up down, up down, and never have any adversity in these types of days. If | ||
1758 | |1757 |02:26:11 ~-~-> 02:26:15 |I try to do that, I'll get beat up a little bit. So my question to you is, | ||
1759 | |1758 |02:26:16 ~-~-> 02:26:22 |which one are you going to try to strive to focus on recognizing and only trading | ||
1760 | |1759 |02:26:22 ~-~-> 02:26:27 |in those environments. Do you have the discipline to do that? Do you have the | ||
1761 | |1760 |02:26:27 ~-~-> 02:26:31 |interest in trying to do everything you can to prevent the likelihood of you | ||
1762 | |1761 |02:26:31 ~-~-> 02:26:35 |blowing out because of the difficulty that comes with these types of days? | ||
1763 | |1762 |02:26:36 ~-~-> 02:26:39 |Remember, you're starting out. I'm not saying someone knows how to trade is | ||
1764 | |1763 |02:26:39 ~-~-> 02:26:43 |going to have difficulty trading this debt. I'm saying to you that are brand | ||
1765 | |1764 |02:26:43 ~-~-> 02:26:49 |new, or relatively new, you're going to look at this as it's a choppy shit day. | ||
1766 | |1765 |02:26:49 ~-~-> 02:26:53 |Oh, the Marcus is shit today. It's a price action. Was garbage today. It's | ||
1767 | |1766 |02:26:53 ~-~-> 02:26:58 |not garbage. You just don't know what you're looking at, and your experience | ||
1768 | |1767 |02:26:58 ~-~-> 02:27:00 |level is so low, | ||
1769 | |1768 |02:27:01 ~-~-> 02:27:07 |you won't be able to navigate in it. But the problem is, some of you simply have | ||
1770 | |1769 |02:27:07 ~-~-> 02:27:14 |a superiority complex, like you don't want to be told that this is something | ||
1771 | |1770 |02:27:14 ~-~-> 02:27:18 |you should avoid, and you take it as a personal challenge to go. ICT said that | ||
1772 | |1771 |02:27:18 ~-~-> 02:27:22 |these are hard days. I'm going to go out there. I'm going to trade, okay, prove | ||
1773 | |1772 |02:27:22 ~-~-> 02:27:26 |your point, because you're gonna prove mine. You're only gonna cherry pick what | ||
1774 | |1773 |02:27:26 ~-~-> 02:27:33 |you show. You won't show everything. And why do that focus on trading when the | ||
1775 | |1774 |02:27:33 ~-~-> 02:27:38 |days are easy, absolutely easy. It's like taking candy from a baby, man. It's | ||
1776 | |1775 |02:27:38 ~-~-> 02:27:44 |like, so fun. And it's makes it makes it easy, fun and enjoyable. Trading should | ||
1777 | |1776 |02:27:44 ~-~-> 02:27:47 |be enjoyable. If it's stressful, you're doing it wrong. You're over leveraging, | ||
1778 | |1777 |02:27:47 ~-~-> 02:27:50 |you're over trading, and you don't have a model that's that's what it's telling | ||
1779 | |1778 |02:27:50 ~-~-> 02:27:55 |you. And I'm trying to do my best by supplying my students with a model that | ||
1780 | |1779 |02:27:55 ~-~-> 02:28:00 |hopefully they can match with their personality, and teaching them how that | ||
1781 | |1780 |02:28:00 ~-~-> 02:28:05 |absolutely, you can predict price, you can predict the future, and you're not | ||
1782 | |1781 |02:28:05 ~-~-> 02:28:09 |anticipating to shit like I'm not reacting anything. I said that wrong. | ||
1783 | |1782 |02:28:09 ~-~-> 02:28:14 |You are anticipating. You're not reacting. If I have to respond to | ||
1784 | |1783 |02:28:14 ~-~-> 02:28:20 |something that I didn't see coming, I can't trust that that's like a jump | ||
1785 | |1784 |02:28:20 ~-~-> 02:28:26 |scare, like my kids have found out several times, they almost got jacked in | ||
1786 | |1785 |02:28:26 ~-~-> 02:28:29 |a jaw when they were growing up as teenagers. Like jumping in front of me, | ||
1787 | |1786 |02:28:29 ~-~-> 02:28:31 |and they get solar plexus striking there, and they can't breathe for a | ||
1788 | |1787 |02:28:31 ~-~-> 02:28:36 |couple minutes. It's not because I didn't. You remember that? Yeah, it's | ||
1789 | |1788 |02:28:36 ~-~-> 02:28:40 |not that I don't It's not that I don't love my kids and I don't want to hurt | ||
1790 | |1789 |02:28:40 ~-~-> 02:28:43 |them, but I train myself, if someone's going to do something like that, it's | ||
1791 | |1790 |02:28:43 ~-~-> 02:28:46 |probably danger, I'm going to neutralize it. So you don't want to do that type of | ||
1792 | |1791 |02:28:46 ~-~-> 02:28:50 |stuff with your trading. You don't want to increase the level of difficulty, | ||
1793 | |1792 |02:28:50 ~-~-> 02:28:55 |just for the sake of you want to trade. So hopefully I communicate that I'm | ||
1794 | |1793 |02:28:55 ~-~-> 02:29:01 |starting to ramble on a little bit now, but I enjoyed today. I enjoyed teaching | ||
1795 | |1794 |02:29:01 ~-~-> 02:29:06 |it today. I enjoyed showcasing it today. I'm hoping, and then you'll let me know | ||
1796 | |1795 |02:29:06 ~-~-> 02:29:10 |in the comments and feedback on Twitter and on the post I put on how to usually | ||
1797 | |1796 |02:29:10 ~-~-> 02:29:13 |do on my YouTube channel. I will usually put the data, and I'll say, what did you | ||
1798 | |1797 |02:29:13 ~-~-> 02:29:18 |learn today in the live stream. If this has helped you. You know, I'd like to | ||
1799 | |1798 |02:29:18 ~-~-> 02:29:22 |know that for the for the jokers to say, I learned nothing. I only see that | ||
1800 | |1799 |02:29:22 ~-~-> 02:29:25 |comment one time, and then I block it. I never see you again, because if you | ||
1801 | |1800 |02:29:25 ~-~-> 02:29:28 |wasted your time typing it, I will never waste my time reading your shit again. | ||
1802 | |1801 |02:29:28 ~-~-> 02:29:32 |But I want to know, do you see the advantages of seeing price like this? | ||
1803 | |1802 |02:29:32 ~-~-> 02:29:37 |Because I'm I have seen students literally leave paid mentorship because | ||
1804 | |1803 |02:29:37 ~-~-> 02:29:41 |they couldn't see the value in this. They were took they were too short | ||
1805 | |1804 |02:29:41 ~-~-> 02:29:45 |sighted to see the value in understanding how to see how things are | ||
1806 | |1805 |02:29:45 ~-~-> 02:29:50 |going to be so much more against you. The level of difficulty that's natural | ||
1807 | |1806 |02:29:50 ~-~-> 02:29:55 |with trading anyway, is now been multiplied to a degree that you can't | ||
1808 | |1807 |02:29:55 ~-~-> 02:30:00 |measure until after the day is done, because you don't know what stopped. To | ||
1809 | |1808 |02:30:00 ~-~-> 02:30:03 |get because you're you, you're you're brand new. You don't know what they're | ||
1810 | |1809 |02:30:03 ~-~-> 02:30:06 |going to be running for. You don't know how they're going to work with the time | ||
1811 | |1810 |02:30:06 ~-~-> 02:30:10 |of the day and how they're going to run for specific order above or below the | ||
1812 | |1811 |02:30:10 ~-~-> 02:30:14 |marketplace. You don't, you don't have that, that skill set yet. So wouldn't it | ||
1813 | |1812 |02:30:14 ~-~-> 02:30:18 |be advantageous for you to start classifying your day when you journal | ||
1814 | |1813 |02:30:20 ~-~-> 02:30:26 |always include that factor. Do you see the in the imbalances, spending too much | ||
1815 | |1814 |02:30:26 ~-~-> 02:30:33 |time holding price inside them? If you see that, then you are in high | ||
1816 | |1815 |02:30:33 ~-~-> 02:30:38 |resistance liquidity conditions. If you don't see that, you are in low | ||
1817 | |1816 |02:30:38 ~-~-> 02:30:42 |resistance liquidity run signatures. That is easy definition, folks. That is | ||
1818 | |1817 |02:30:42 ~-~-> 02:30:45 |not something hard. It's not an ambiguous thing where it's Oh, it's a | ||
1819 | |1818 |02:30:45 ~-~-> 02:30:50 |after effect. You can see it real time. You watch me do it now, two times over, | ||
1820 | |1819 |02:30:50 ~-~-> 02:30:54 |live price action, telling you, nope, this is problematic, and it's still the | ||
1821 | |1820 |02:30:54 ~-~-> 02:30:58 |same logic. It's not going to morph into something else. There's no other extra | ||
1822 | |1821 |02:30:58 ~-~-> 02:31:01 |things I'm going to teach around it. You have you now have it, but are you going | ||
1823 | |1822 |02:31:01 ~-~-> 02:31:06 |to use it? Are you going to help it? Help you guide yourself and navigate | ||
1824 | |1823 |02:31:06 ~-~-> 02:31:12 |through price action? Now, knowing this, I don't know you, tell me that's going | ||
1825 | |1824 |02:31:12 ~-~-> 02:31:19 |to be it for today. I had fun this week. I will do my best to try to come up with | ||
1826 | |1825 |02:31:19 ~-~-> 02:31:24 |some kind of a lecture this weekend and stuff, a review or whatnot. Uh, Caleb's | ||
1827 | |1826 |02:31:24 ~-~-> 02:31:27 |video will probably not think about, I'm not going to do anything tonight. I'll | ||
1828 | |1827 |02:31:27 ~-~-> 02:31:31 |probably end up on his channel Saturday evening, around nine o'clock My Time, | ||
1829 | |1828 |02:31:31 ~-~-> 02:31:36 |Eastern Time, and then probably earlier in the afternoon, maybe five o'clock, | ||
1830 | |1829 |02:31:36 ~-~-> 02:31:38 |I'll have something on my channel in terms of, like, a teaching, lecture, | ||
1831 | |1830 |02:31:38 ~-~-> 02:31:42 |what? Not maybe some kind of review. But that's it for this one, I hope you found | ||
1832 | |1831 |02:31:42 ~-~-> 02:31:46 |it insightful. Enjoy your weekend. Be safe and Lord willing, we'll do that | ||
1833 | |1832 |02:31:46 ~-~-> 02:31:48 |again on Monday. Take care. Bye. |