ICT YT - 2024-09-20 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 31
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-09-25 09:33
| 1 | 00:01:16 --> 00:01:17 | ICT: Just checking The audio |
| 2 | 00:01:22 --> 00:01:31 | check. Alright, so we are looking at the the difference between CFDs, which are |
| 3 | 00:01:31 --> 00:01:37 | not legally traded in America. So all you gurus out there that show your |
| 4 | 00:01:37 --> 00:01:48 | multiple MT four screenshots of the same market. You got 50,000 per per profit |
| 5 | 00:01:48 --> 00:01:54 | line. Nobody believes that crap, but the pretend. Pretend is fun, right? So for |
| 6 | 00:01:56 --> 00:01:59 | the folks that are outside the US, but you want to learn what it is I'm |
| 7 | 00:01:59 --> 00:02:07 | teaching with the futures market. How can you participate? How can you be a a |
| 8 | 00:02:07 --> 00:02:11 | player, if you will, in reading price action and learning how to do that. So |
| 9 | 00:02:12 --> 00:02:18 | if we know that I am not going to be trading the CFDs, I won't even push the |
| 10 | 00:02:18 --> 00:02:21 | button on that. Okay, I'm not going to do that, but it's not necessary that I |
| 11 | 00:02:21 --> 00:02:26 | do, because I'm going to show you exactly how to do everything. You see me |
| 12 | 00:02:26 --> 00:02:34 | dealing with the futures contract. The CFDs, they trade in, you know, 20, 24/7, |
| 13 | 00:02:35 --> 00:02:43 | they go around the clock. There's a separation with the settlement price at |
| 14 | 00:02:43 --> 00:02:50 | 4:14pm Eastern Time. And then there is the 930 opening. And we can see that |
| 15 | 00:02:50 --> 00:02:57 | relatively easy when we're looking at the regular trading hours. So right now |
| 16 | 00:02:57 --> 00:03:01 | I'm looking at the micro emitting NASDAQ. This is for December's contract, |
| 17 | 00:03:03 --> 00:03:07 | and I'm going to show you the recording. I'm not sure what was going on with the |
| 18 | 00:03:09 --> 00:03:14 | Twitter or x app this morning. I tried to show the recording of me executing |
| 19 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 | this morning and all the business I'm about to show you, but I don't know why |
| 20 | 00:03:19 --> 00:03:23 | it wouldn't. It wouldn't let me upload it. So I don't know if I'm on the bad |
| 21 | 00:03:23 --> 00:03:30 | list over there or what, but it'll be part of Caleb's channel upload tonight, |
| 22 | 00:03:30 --> 00:03:33 | so that way you can watch it there. It just, it's gonna be a real brief thing, |
| 23 | 00:03:33 --> 00:03:39 | but I kind of like what. I'll outline it here and also show you the same similar |
| 24 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:47 | things that's shown in a CFD for NASDAQ. So if you're not an American and you can |
| 25 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:52 | trade through like a Forex broker, I'm not trading Forex anymore. I'm not |
| 26 | 00:03:52 --> 00:03:56 | enticing you to trade Forex. I'm not trying to tell you you should trade |
| 27 | 00:03:56 --> 00:04:01 | that. I'm not telling you you should trade the CFDs. But if you can't follow |
| 28 | 00:04:01 --> 00:04:06 | along with the actual futures market. You can get as close as you can, but |
| 29 | 00:04:06 --> 00:04:09 | they're not going to mark the market. Now. I'll show you what that means in a |
| 30 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:14 | moment, but they're close enough for you to do studies. Let's say it that way. |
| 31 | 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 | Okay, so we can all agree that we're just studying price action and not |
| 32 | 00:04:18 --> 00:04:21 | trying to give you trade advice. I'm not trying to give you investment advice, |
| 33 | 00:04:21 --> 00:04:24 | but this is how you bridge the gap between the two. Okay, so that way |
| 34 | 00:04:24 --> 00:04:29 | you're not out like orphans. ICT left us, we're in forex and these trading |
| 35 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:33 | futures, and we don't trade futures anymore. CFDs, you can trade them |
| 36 | 00:04:34 --> 00:04:37 | wherever you're at. If you're not in America, you can probably trade them |
| 37 | 00:04:37 --> 00:04:41 | now. Are some, there are some countries that are cracking down and making it |
| 38 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:46 | illegal for people to do it at all. Okay, and I talked about that in Twitter |
| 39 | 00:04:46 --> 00:04:53 | spaces about a year ago, so you might want to think about that. But the the |
| 40 | 00:04:53 --> 00:04:59 | mini contract for NASDAQ every handle move that means four ticks up or down |
| 41 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:05 | you. It's taking or adding to your account in the amount of $20 US dollars |
| 42 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:14 | in a micro it's $2 for every four ticks or one handle. So a handle would be like |
| 43 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:26 | 20,000 010, to 20,000 011, and if you were long one contract, that would be |
| 44 | 00:05:26 --> 00:05:34 | one increase of a handle, or four ticks or $20 if it went one tick, I'm sorry, |
| 45 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:39 | four ticks below your entry in your long you would be debited mark to market |
| 46 | 00:05:40 --> 00:05:48 | negative $20 for a micro. It's only $2 so it affords the the student to focus |
| 47 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:54 | and study in this medium, not the Mini. Okay? And for all of you that are |
| 48 | 00:05:54 --> 00:05:58 | trading in these southern account company things, if you're not using this |
| 49 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:01 | like I'm showing you're really doing it wrong? Because you're gambling. I don't |
| 50 | 00:06:01 --> 00:06:04 | care who you are. I don't care if that hurts your feelings. You're literally |
| 51 | 00:06:04 --> 00:06:10 | gambling. When my sons did it, they gambled, they were over leveraged, they |
| 52 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 | were trading more than they should have, and the amount of money they gave you |
| 53 | 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 | that could be technically lost is such an infantile amount, it's so minuscule, |
| 54 | 00:06:18 --> 00:06:22 | it's little. And you don't have the skill set, I'm sorry, you don't have the |
| 55 | 00:06:22 --> 00:06:26 | skill set to be consistently able to go up against that as close as you can, |
| 56 | 00:06:26 --> 00:06:30 | without going over him out, without drawing the account down or blowing it |
| 57 | 00:06:30 --> 00:06:34 | out and then having to pay the reset fees. You can beat these companies. You |
| 58 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:39 | can beat them consistently, but you have to do it with a shoestring budget |
| 59 | 00:06:39 --> 00:06:44 | approach, like trading the micros and what I'm showing you here today, all of |
| 60 | 00:06:44 --> 00:06:48 | you, I'm, in my opinion, all of you could can do what I'm about to show you |
| 61 | 00:06:48 --> 00:06:51 | today. That's my that's my personal opinion, and I'm welcome to that. You |
| 62 | 00:06:51 --> 00:06:56 | may not agree with that, but it's, it's my opinion. But before we get into me, |
| 63 | 00:06:56 --> 00:07:00 | just quickly right here. Yeah, okay, we got time the |
| 64 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:12 | I mentioned on Twitter, I'm going to slow down on Twitter. I just went over |
| 65 | 00:07:12 --> 00:07:20 | there to rabble rouse for a little while. I've had fun, but the the tweet I |
| 66 | 00:07:20 --> 00:07:24 | put out this morning, I said that we would likely see a limp opening. It |
| 67 | 00:07:24 --> 00:07:28 | means it's anemic. It's not it doesn't have any kind of real excitement. And |
| 68 | 00:07:28 --> 00:07:34 | it's because we don't see a large gap between where we settled at 415 or |
| 69 | 00:07:34 --> 00:07:43 | 4:14pm eastern time yesterday, to where we opened up at 930 here today. So if we |
| 70 | 00:07:43 --> 00:07:51 | click on regular trading hours, this candlestick right there, right here, |
| 71 | 00:07:51 --> 00:08:01 | that is the 4:14pm Thursday, September 19, 2024, settlement price now it trades |
| 72 | 00:08:01 --> 00:08:06 | for another 4546 more minutes, and then closes at five o'clock. But this is what |
| 73 | 00:08:06 --> 00:08:12 | you're looking for, for the opening range gap, if we open and the next |
| 74 | 00:08:12 --> 00:08:20 | candlestick shows this 9:30am today, Friday, September 20, 2024 that opening |
| 75 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:27 | price sets the stage for the other parameter, for the opening range gap. So |
| 76 | 00:08:27 --> 00:08:31 | since yesterday's settlement price is higher than our opening price today at |
| 77 | 00:08:31 --> 00:08:39 | 930 that means we have a discount opening range gap. That means today's |
| 78 | 00:08:39 --> 00:08:48 | opening price at 930 is lower than where we closed at 414 now with CFDs, you |
| 79 | 00:08:48 --> 00:08:51 | don't have this function here, and this is what's called a great deal of |
| 80 | 00:08:51 --> 00:08:55 | confusion for everyone that doesn't have the ability to trade with futures. So |
| 81 | 00:08:55 --> 00:08:58 | I'm going to show you how to bridge that in a moment. But let me just walk |
| 82 | 00:08:58 --> 00:09:01 | through this real quick, so that way, when you watch the video that just |
| 83 | 00:09:01 --> 00:09:05 | streams real quick without any annotation tonight, you know that you've |
| 84 | 00:09:05 --> 00:09:14 | heard it here, and just wait for the closed captions to appear. It takes time |
| 85 | 00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 | for YouTube to put those on. So stop sending me comments and tell me I'm |
| 86 | 00:09:18 --> 00:09:22 | being mean. I'm not being mean, but I'm not typing out a transcript every time I |
| 87 | 00:09:22 --> 00:09:31 | do a video. All right. So here is the first fair value gap between 930 |
| 88 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:38 | technically, 931 to 10 o'clock. That 930 to 10 o'clock is an interval of time |
| 89 | 00:09:39 --> 00:09:45 | that I dub a opening range. So there's two things occurring here, the opening |
| 90 | 00:09:45 --> 00:09:50 | range gap, which is a lower gap opening, which is that candlestick there, and |
| 91 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:55 | this line, if we were to scroll all the way to the left, which I'm not going to |
| 92 | 00:09:55 --> 00:10:00 | do, would go right back to yesterday's. 4:14pm, Eastern Time, seven. Price. So |
| 93 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:10 | it's this line here, that bold line and this bold line. I'm making it as maximum |
| 94 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:17 | size as I can between those two price points is the opening range gap, opening |
| 95 | 00:10:17 --> 00:10:25 | range, which is algorithmic. Anything less than this, they're they're making |
| 96 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:29 | up stuff. Let's put it that way. This is the first 30 minutes of trading. Okay, |
| 97 | 00:10:29 --> 00:10:33 | the algorithm is going to use this range for several things, some of the things |
| 98 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:37 | I'll teach in 2024 mentorship, some of the things I already mentioned it. But |
| 99 | 00:10:37 --> 00:10:40 | there'll be a lot of things in the book. You do not need to know. The things that |
| 100 | 00:10:40 --> 00:10:43 | are going to be the book. You don't need to anything in those books. I've given |
| 101 | 00:10:43 --> 00:10:47 | you enough on this YouTube channel, so it's not a solicit to sell you a book. I |
| 102 | 00:10:47 --> 00:10:51 | don't care if you never buy my books, okay? I don't care if you come back and |
| 103 | 00:10:51 --> 00:10:54 | watch my videos ever again. I'm just telling you you don't need to buy them, |
| 104 | 00:10:54 --> 00:11:01 | okay? But I want to keep them, or keep the concepts private until I put it in |
| 105 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:04 | book form. Because there's so many people out there writing books as I make |
| 106 | 00:11:04 --> 00:11:09 | videos here and teach new mentorship stuff, they're immediately putting them |
| 107 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:12 | into print. And to me, it's a little irritating, because you're not even |
| 108 | 00:11:12 --> 00:11:15 | giving them. You're not getting the right instructions. So I want to do it |
| 109 | 00:11:16 --> 00:11:19 | my way, the correct way, and that way if you all want to write books after the |
| 110 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:25 | fact, I could care less then, but the first fair value gap that forms occurs |
| 111 | 00:11:25 --> 00:11:31 | at 934 so it meets the minimal criteria of at least the 931 candle, because you |
| 112 | 00:11:31 --> 00:11:36 | can't use the 930 candle for the initial fair value gap or the first fair value |
| 113 | 00:11:36 --> 00:11:41 | gap presentation between the 930 and 10 o'clock, all of these Things are still |
| 114 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:48 | going to hold true if you trade with the US 100 or the US 500 or the US 30. Those |
| 115 | 00:11:48 --> 00:11:55 | are CFD CFDs are kind of like a composite, derivative type, little blend |
| 116 | 00:11:56 --> 00:12:01 | of because they don't have the access to what the exchanges here do. They just |
| 117 | 00:12:01 --> 00:12:06 | try to mimic it as best they can? And for the most part, it's it's good |
| 118 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:11 | enough. Okay, there's traders like Tom, who guard, who trade CFDs, and he has |
| 119 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:14 | his own YouTube channel here. He live streams every single day, unless he |
| 120 | 00:12:14 --> 00:12:18 | tells you he's not going to. He trades in the European session and he trades in |
| 121 | 00:12:18 --> 00:12:23 | the New York session sometimes. And if you want to watch someone trade a market |
| 122 | 00:12:23 --> 00:12:30 | that is parallel to the US indices, like the NASDAQ, the Dow and the S P, you |
| 123 | 00:12:30 --> 00:12:32 | should watch his channel, because he's actually out there dealing it with real |
| 124 | 00:12:32 --> 00:12:37 | money. He's he's taking trades based on the stuff he he's built as a model for |
| 125 | 00:12:37 --> 00:12:45 | himself. So the 934 first favorite I got here. You may have noticed when I was |
| 126 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:50 | showing the charts on Twitter this morning or this afternoon, rather. And |
| 127 | 00:12:50 --> 00:12:54 | you may have looked at this and said, Well, you know you're doing this wrong, |
| 128 | 00:12:54 --> 00:12:58 | and in the recording, you're going to see it look like this too. What I was |
| 129 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:04 | doing was, um, I know that it's not going to show a volume imbalance between |
| 130 | 00:13:04 --> 00:13:07 | these two candlesticks up here, but there is a small one down here, so |
| 131 | 00:13:07 --> 00:13:12 | technically, it should look like this, but during the trade, I wanted to see it |
| 132 | 00:13:12 --> 00:13:18 | like that, okay, and I'll tell you why, because I want to see when we're in |
| 133 | 00:13:18 --> 00:13:23 | consolidation like this, where It's back and forth, back and forth. What this is, |
| 134 | 00:13:23 --> 00:13:29 | okay? It's not that it's lacking buying and selling. It doesn't mean that |
| 135 | 00:13:29 --> 00:13:33 | there's nobody's willing buy. Doesn't mean that there's a balance of buyers or |
| 136 | 00:13:33 --> 00:13:37 | sellers. It has absolutely nothing to do with that, zero to do with that. This is |
| 137 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:44 | called time distortion. It's waiting for a specific time. What time is that? It's |
| 138 | 00:13:44 --> 00:13:53 | 9:50am okay, so 9:50am to 1010, that is a algorithmic window of time where the |
| 139 | 00:13:53 --> 00:13:59 | market will start to spool. That means it's going to run. Okay, so this initial |
| 140 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:04 | fair value gap, because we opened up. And you should have this in your notes |
| 141 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 | as well, whenever we open up. And if you have a very small opening range gap, |
| 142 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:14 | what is that? Well, it's 20 handles, and that's exactly what we had here today as |
| 143 | 00:14:14 --> 00:14:18 | an opening range gap, because the high of it, which was yesterday's 414, |
| 144 | 00:14:18 --> 00:14:29 | Eastern pm session settlement price was 20,000 055 for the micro NASDAQ for |
| 145 | 00:14:29 --> 00:14:35 | December contract. And then we open today for the same market here at 20,035 |
| 146 | 00:14:37 --> 00:14:42 | even so, between those two prices, that's only 20 handles, so that's a |
| 147 | 00:14:42 --> 00:14:48 | really limp or anemic opening gap. It's not a lot to get excited about. Plus, we |
| 148 | 00:14:48 --> 00:14:52 | had a large range day yesterday, so in the morning, it's going to be a little |
| 149 | 00:14:52 --> 00:14:57 | bit more difficult. And then you compound that with a Friday, where we've |
| 150 | 00:14:57 --> 00:15:01 | already moved a lot. So it's it's. Going to be a whole lot more things that's |
| 151 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:06 | going to go against you, so you have to really stick the time. And the other |
| 152 | 00:15:06 --> 00:15:11 | time, if it's a lot of volatility, you don't have to require my macro times. I |
| 153 | 00:15:11 --> 00:15:14 | don't require my macro times when there's a lot of volatility, but when |
| 154 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:17 | there's things that are stacking against you, like we have a small gap opening, |
| 155 | 00:15:18 --> 00:15:28 | it's Friday, we're at the end of the week, and well, that's enough. The the |
| 156 | 00:15:28 --> 00:15:31 | small gap in a large range. Day yesterday already puts the the focus on |
| 157 | 00:15:31 --> 00:15:35 | the morning session is going to be a little bit more challenging for someone |
| 158 | 00:15:35 --> 00:15:40 | that doesn't have experience. So what occurs here is when the market opens up |
| 159 | 00:15:40 --> 00:15:45 | at 930 it rallies and takes out a short term buy side liquidity. So it engages |
| 160 | 00:15:45 --> 00:15:50 | that knocks out anyone that's already short, so they can't capitalize on that. |
| 161 | 00:15:50 --> 00:15:54 | And it puts traders that would be a buyer above this old hire here that now |
| 162 | 00:15:54 --> 00:15:59 | they're trapped in it long, so they're going to rake them across the coals to |
| 163 | 00:15:59 --> 00:16:05 | this area of sell side to their sell stops below here. So they take traders |
| 164 | 00:16:05 --> 00:16:12 | in prematurely by taking out this high there. So now they're thinking it's |
| 165 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:18 | going to break out. Keep going higher. It's not the market's going to trade. |
| 166 | 00:16:18 --> 00:16:24 | Yesterday's gap did not get traded to to the midpoint, and it barely made an |
| 167 | 00:16:24 --> 00:16:29 | attempt to get down into it. So because it's Friday, because it's TGIF, TGIF is |
| 168 | 00:16:30 --> 00:16:33 | a scenario I like to look for, for the weekly range, whatever the highest high |
| 169 | 00:16:33 --> 00:16:37 | in the lowest low is. And I'll include this information in Caleb's video |
| 170 | 00:16:37 --> 00:16:41 | tonight. Okay, so on his channel, what I'm referring to by TGIF, and what that |
| 171 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:45 | means, and how to determine what that looks like on your charts. I'll show you |
| 172 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:48 | what that is. It only takes me a minute to do that, but it's likely to see a |
| 173 | 00:16:48 --> 00:16:53 | pullback on Friday to 20 to 30% of the weekly range. Not that it means to do |
| 174 | 00:16:53 --> 00:16:56 | that, but I'm always looking for something like that to unfold, and |
| 175 | 00:16:56 --> 00:17:05 | because we have a low, exciting lack of excitement. Opening range gap, because |
| 176 | 00:17:05 --> 00:17:14 | it's only 20 handles, it's not, it's not going to be requiring much, I guess, |
| 177 | 00:17:14 --> 00:17:21 | participation right away. So wait. So what it means to me is, I'm looking at |
| 178 | 00:17:21 --> 00:17:25 | that gap here, and I anticipate that they're going to work both sides of it, |
| 179 | 00:17:25 --> 00:17:28 | back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And I'm going to draw it |
| 180 | 00:17:28 --> 00:17:32 | correctly so that we can see it real quick. That's what it would look like. |
| 181 | 00:17:33 --> 00:17:38 | And I'll get to the breakaway gap in a second, if we know that we have a very |
| 182 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:44 | small gap opening, and we have a Friday end of the week, and we have a large |
| 183 | 00:17:44 --> 00:17:50 | range day yesterday, we're going to be opening up close to what else? What? |
| 184 | 00:17:50 --> 00:17:56 | What was the first comment that I was asking you about today on Twitter? Have |
| 185 | 00:17:56 --> 00:18:00 | you extended yesterday's first presentation fair value gap between 930 |
| 186 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:06 | and 10 o'clock. That's what this orange box is here. This orange box is |
| 187 | 00:18:06 --> 00:18:12 | yesterday. Thursday's first fair value gap between 930 or 931 to 10 o'clock in |
| 188 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:17 | the morning, Eastern Time. The same way this is for today, the first fair value |
| 189 | 00:18:17 --> 00:18:24 | gap. You want to extend them forward and their life cycles about three days now, |
| 190 | 00:18:24 --> 00:18:30 | you're going to find that sometimes they'll still be useful a week, two |
| 191 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:34 | weeks, three weeks ago. You know it's it hasn't been traded back to Okay, that's |
| 192 | 00:18:34 --> 00:18:39 | usually how it works. But when we're in a area where it's going to be ranging |
| 193 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:46 | around it and notice that when we were close to 930 if you look at what the pre |
| 194 | 00:18:46 --> 00:18:49 | market was doing, because we're looking at electronic hours down here, it's the |
| 195 | 00:18:49 --> 00:18:52 | same thing if you were looking at your CFD. So if you're looking at the US 100 |
| 196 | 00:18:53 --> 00:18:56 | and I'll show you a US 100 chart in a minute. Let me just get through this |
| 197 | 00:18:56 --> 00:19:00 | part here, because I know you're like, I want to see it on a US 100 chart. You |
| 198 | 00:19:00 --> 00:19:04 | will, but let me teach the way I want to teach. Please. Some of you are very |
| 199 | 00:19:04 --> 00:19:08 | demanding and very rude in the comment section, and I don't ever see your |
| 200 | 00:19:08 --> 00:19:11 | comment again. So just be mindful that I don't mind taking your your inquiries |
| 201 | 00:19:11 --> 00:19:16 | and your questions, and I can bring that into the conversations, but when I see |
| 202 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:20 | you being rude or demanding or entitled, I don't ever get to see your comment |
| 203 | 00:19:20 --> 00:19:23 | ever again. You think I'm going to see it, but I can't. I block you from the |
| 204 | 00:19:23 --> 00:19:26 | channel. Doesn't mean you can't watch my videos or think you're leaving comments. |
| 205 | 00:19:26 --> 00:19:35 | It just means I will never see it. So because we're opening up right here at |
| 206 | 00:19:35 --> 00:19:40 | 9:29am, that's electronic trading hours, you already can guess what the opening |
| 207 | 00:19:40 --> 00:19:44 | price is going to be. It's going to be below where seventh was yesterday. Up |
| 208 | 00:19:44 --> 00:19:52 | here, that's that price at 20,055 and it's again referring to this. That's |
| 209 | 00:19:52 --> 00:19:58 | where trading stopped yesterday. And then it starts here with regular trading |
| 210 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:02 | hours. But between these two. Price point all day. I mean, all night long. |
| 211 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:08 | We've had all kinds of trading back and forth. But when we get close to 930, at |
| 212 | 00:20:08 --> 00:20:12 | 929, you can, you can see where we're going to be opening in relative terms to |
| 213 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:18 | the 4:14pm, Eastern Time settlement price, we're going to be opening higher |
| 214 | 00:20:18 --> 00:20:21 | or lower. And you can guesstimate, really, is it going to be a wide gap? |
| 215 | 00:20:21 --> 00:20:28 | And if it's not a wide gap, I don't like really less than 40 handles. If it's |
| 216 | 00:20:28 --> 00:20:33 | less than 40 handles, I'm using other tools that's going to help me for |
| 217 | 00:20:33 --> 00:20:37 | trading the morning session. Or I'll just opt out and wait till 10 o'clock |
| 218 | 00:20:37 --> 00:20:41 | and I'll trade silver bullet, something like that. So there's very simple rules. |
| 219 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:44 | You see that it's not hard, it's not complicated, but you have to have |
| 220 | 00:20:44 --> 00:20:47 | conditions and understand what those conditions are. And the same thing that |
| 221 | 00:20:47 --> 00:20:53 | we're seeing here is applicable to the CFD market. So you don't have to stress |
| 222 | 00:20:53 --> 00:20:58 | about, I don't trade futures, so I don't know how to make this work for me. So |
| 223 | 00:20:58 --> 00:21:01 | because we have a very small gap between those two price points, yesterday's |
| 224 | 00:21:01 --> 00:21:06 | settlement price in 9/31 opening price. Tick. That's this candle's opening |
| 225 | 00:21:06 --> 00:21:11 | price. Where is that happening? Well, look at 929 look at that candle. Where |
| 226 | 00:21:11 --> 00:21:16 | it's trading at. Before that candle closes, we're inside yesterday's first |
| 227 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:21 | presented fair value gap, aren't we? Look at the orange box. The only thing I |
| 228 | 00:21:21 --> 00:21:29 | did here is I took the same gap that formed the very first one on the one |
| 229 | 00:21:29 --> 00:21:35 | minute chart. I'm taking all your here because I want you to see it. |
| 230 | 00:21:42 --> 00:21:46 | That's this candlestick right here at 938 that's the very first fair value gap |
| 231 | 00:21:47 --> 00:21:54 | on Thursday, September 19, 2024 you understand. So the only thing I'm doing |
| 232 | 00:21:54 --> 00:21:59 | is taking that gap, and I'm toggling on the settings box here. I'll go to |
| 233 | 00:21:59 --> 00:22:03 | settings and over here, where it says style, just click extend right. If I |
| 234 | 00:22:03 --> 00:22:07 | don't extend right, you can see it's just that candlestick right there. But |
| 235 | 00:22:07 --> 00:22:12 | when I click on it like that, it keeps printing it and posting it forward in |
| 236 | 00:22:12 --> 00:22:17 | the future. So that way, it's always going to be a reference point for me. So |
| 237 | 00:22:18 --> 00:22:22 | by having that information, you want to know where you are in the last three |
| 238 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:26 | days with the first presented fair value gap between 931 and 10 o'clock in the |
| 239 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:30 | morning, because the algorithm is going to refer back to that again. And all you |
| 240 | 00:22:30 --> 00:22:33 | have to do is look at what price has been doing here. You're going to tell me |
| 241 | 00:22:33 --> 00:22:36 | that's buying and selling pressure. And everybody looks at that first fair value |
| 242 | 00:22:36 --> 00:22:39 | gap. Everybody knew about that. That was you're telling me it's facade. I think |
| 243 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:44 | think about these people here. They talk nonsense. Oh, everybody knew about that. |
| 244 | 00:22:44 --> 00:22:50 | Sam Sidon teaches that. No, he doesn't. He probably will. Now make sure you take |
| 245 | 00:22:50 --> 00:23:00 | good notes. Sam, so if we have the opening here today at 930 it's opening |
| 246 | 00:23:00 --> 00:23:06 | inside of yesterday's first presented fair value gap. So what does that mean? |
| 247 | 00:23:08 --> 00:23:13 | It's going to use that fair value gap, not just this one and the first one that |
| 248 | 00:23:13 --> 00:23:19 | prints in during time. Distortion may not be all that influential, and it |
| 249 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:28 | might be useful next week instead, you understand. So we have to look at this |
| 250 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:34 | orange shaded area, because that's yesterday. Thursday's first presentation |
| 251 | 00:23:34 --> 00:23:39 | of a fair value gap between 930 and 10 o'clock. That's why I asked on Twitter. |
| 252 | 00:23:39 --> 00:23:46 | I said, Have you extended yesterday's or Thursday's first presented fair Vega? |
| 253 | 00:23:46 --> 00:23:50 | Have you? Have you made it so it's extending to the right on your chart? |
| 254 | 00:23:51 --> 00:23:56 | Because if you're not doing that, you're going to miss everything that occurs |
| 255 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:05 | around this day. So when we're looking at opportunities for setups to form, |
| 256 | 00:24:05 --> 00:24:12 | when we're looking for things that build, something that's predictable, |
| 257 | 00:24:12 --> 00:24:17 | something that you can forecast, something that you can anticipate and |
| 258 | 00:24:17 --> 00:24:24 | not be reacting people that do not know how price books, people that don't know |
| 259 | 00:24:24 --> 00:24:30 | how these markets work, are always going to be reacting. If you're reacting to |
| 260 | 00:24:30 --> 00:24:33 | something, that means you didn't anticipate it. That means you didn't |
| 261 | 00:24:33 --> 00:24:37 | know it was going to happen, and that means you're not informed, and that |
| 262 | 00:24:37 --> 00:24:44 | means you're not smart money. Now what I teach are concepts to help you predict. |
| 263 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:49 | You absolutely are predicting the market. You are predicting it. Anyone |
| 264 | 00:24:49 --> 00:24:52 | that tells you you're not is talking out their ass. They have no idea what |
| 265 | 00:24:52 --> 00:24:55 | they're doing and what they're doing is they're making an allowances for |
| 266 | 00:24:55 --> 00:25:01 | themselves because they're not good at doing it. So they have a. A wide array |
| 267 | 00:25:01 --> 00:25:05 | of excuses. It comforts them, because they're not going to be holding |
| 268 | 00:25:05 --> 00:25:09 | themselves to the degree of accountability that other people in the |
| 269 | 00:25:09 --> 00:25:13 | industry, like myself and my students. If we're challenged, can you do this? |
| 270 | 00:25:13 --> 00:25:16 | We're right there at the front of the line. Yes, let me give you an |
| 271 | 00:25:16 --> 00:25:20 | opportunity to see it for real. Let me show you what you don't know, because we |
| 272 | 00:25:20 --> 00:25:24 | know what we know, and nobody's going to tell us it ain't happening. And we can |
| 273 | 00:25:24 --> 00:25:27 | do it in our hands, and we're doing it better than any other school of thought |
| 274 | 00:25:27 --> 00:25:32 | out there, more consistently. And you can learn this. You can learn how to do |
| 275 | 00:25:32 --> 00:25:37 | this. You don't just watch me do it. You have to go into charts and practice, but |
| 276 | 00:25:37 --> 00:25:42 | you have to start with these reference points. And you see by journaling them |
| 277 | 00:25:43 --> 00:25:47 | in the last three days, did did the first presented fair value gap two days |
| 278 | 00:25:47 --> 00:25:51 | ago? Did it have any influence on the price today? These are questions you |
| 279 | 00:25:51 --> 00:25:55 | should go in there and looking for, and you're going to be discovering that, |
| 280 | 00:25:55 --> 00:26:01 | wow, that was amazing, how that was just perfectly offered as a setup, and it had |
| 281 | 00:26:01 --> 00:26:06 | very little drawdown, and it fired away. Then, you know, 30 to 50 handles, if not |
| 282 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:11 | more. But you're all struggling looking for setups, and they're right in front |
| 283 | 00:26:11 --> 00:26:16 | of you, if you just listen, I'm telling you how to find them. So today, what I |
| 284 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:21 | was doing is I was watching this initial fair value gap and anticipating this |
| 285 | 00:26:21 --> 00:26:24 | back and forth, time distortion, where it's just going to be working. What? |
| 286 | 00:26:24 --> 00:26:30 | What is it working? Well, we we ran the initial level buy side that was over |
| 287 | 00:26:30 --> 00:26:35 | here, that was pre session. So when we wicked above that, or there it went, |
| 288 | 00:26:35 --> 00:26:40 | back down in and what is it hitting today's opening price? What is the |
| 289 | 00:26:40 --> 00:26:46 | opening price at 930 it's the low of the opening range gap. So watch what it's |
| 290 | 00:26:46 --> 00:26:50 | doing. It's opening here. It swings up to the high, which is yesterday's 414 |
| 291 | 00:26:51 --> 00:26:55 | settlement price. That's the high of the opening range gap for today. Then it |
| 292 | 00:26:55 --> 00:27:00 | trades through that to get liquidity over here, and then it trades back down |
| 293 | 00:27:00 --> 00:27:04 | overlaps the low or the opening price. And then what does it do again? It one |
| 294 | 00:27:04 --> 00:27:09 | more time, reaches more buy side that maybe didn't get hit. Here they're going |
| 295 | 00:27:09 --> 00:27:13 | one more pass in, and they're dropping it down again. Where's it going? Right |
| 296 | 00:27:13 --> 00:27:19 | down to the opening range, gap low, if you're just looking at this, okay, or |
| 297 | 00:27:20 --> 00:27:23 | you're a Dingleberry, and you are out there trying to point to where fair |
| 298 | 00:27:23 --> 00:27:26 | value gaps don't work. And look at this, they get ran through. To get ran |
| 299 | 00:27:26 --> 00:27:30 | through. It's designed to do that. It's designed to do that because you don't |
| 300 | 00:27:30 --> 00:27:34 | know what the fuck you're talking about. There's logic behind these things, and |
| 301 | 00:27:34 --> 00:27:37 | you don't know what it is, simply because you can draw a rectangle in one |
| 302 | 00:27:37 --> 00:27:42 | candlestick that is not bridged with the previous candle or the subsequent next |
| 303 | 00:27:42 --> 00:27:47 | candle doesn't make it a fair value guy. It makes no sense for anybody out there |
| 304 | 00:27:47 --> 00:27:50 | to assume just because you think you see it there, it doesn't make it a fair |
| 305 | 00:27:50 --> 00:27:53 | value guy. Just like every down closed candle is not a bullish order block and |
| 306 | 00:27:53 --> 00:27:59 | never every up candle is not a bearish order block. So it's it's a little |
| 307 | 00:27:59 --> 00:28:03 | frustrating. The teacher in me gets frustrated, because I know that what |
| 308 | 00:28:03 --> 00:28:07 | what these people are doing is they copped out. They didn't want to go |
| 309 | 00:28:07 --> 00:28:09 | through the process of really learning how to do it, so it's easier for them to |
| 310 | 00:28:09 --> 00:28:13 | cook fun and say, look, it failed here, but I'm murdering these markets. I'm |
| 311 | 00:28:13 --> 00:28:17 | doing it in front of people, and my students are doing it, and you and you |
| 312 | 00:28:17 --> 00:28:20 | can be one of them, and you don't have to like me as a person. I don't care. |
| 313 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:25 | We're not here to be friends, but I want you all to do well. And if you |
| 314 | 00:28:25 --> 00:28:29 | understand that, this is what this is going to do. Because of the day, it's |
| 315 | 00:28:29 --> 00:28:32 | Friday, we have a very small gap opening, and we had a large range |
| 316 | 00:28:32 --> 00:28:35 | yesterday, so the morning session is already going to be what more |
| 317 | 00:28:35 --> 00:28:39 | complicated and challenging for a new trader. It doesn't mean you can't trade |
| 318 | 00:28:39 --> 00:28:44 | it. It just means that when I talk, I talk in two schools of thought, my |
| 319 | 00:28:45 --> 00:28:49 | students that understand how to trade, the ones that have their model and they |
| 320 | 00:28:49 --> 00:28:53 | don't need to listen to me, okay, they're more advanced, or the people |
| 321 | 00:28:53 --> 00:28:56 | that are just coming to me, they don't know anything. When I say, don't trade |
| 322 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:00 | on Mondays, most of time, it's because I don't want that new student to trade on |
| 323 | 00:29:00 --> 00:29:05 | Mondays, because they tend to be a little bit more demanding in experience. |
| 324 | 00:29:06 --> 00:29:10 | When I say don't trade on high news, news events, it doesn't mean you can't |
| 325 | 00:29:10 --> 00:29:13 | trade on them. If you know what you're doing, you just got to wait until after |
| 326 | 00:29:13 --> 00:29:17 | the report hits, then go in and look for the inefficiencies or the liquidities |
| 327 | 00:29:17 --> 00:29:20 | left. But if you don't know what you're doing, if you don't even know what an |
| 328 | 00:29:20 --> 00:29:24 | economic calendar is, you can get out there and get hurt really bad, and I |
| 329 | 00:29:24 --> 00:29:29 | don't want any of that to happen to any of you. So because we have all those |
| 330 | 00:29:29 --> 00:29:37 | factors today, that first gap is really of no importance yet, because it still |
| 331 | 00:29:37 --> 00:29:43 | has to worry about yesterday's first fair value gap, because we opened inside |
| 332 | 00:29:43 --> 00:29:49 | of it. This is a small little gap. This is a much larger gap, and we have been |
| 333 | 00:29:49 --> 00:29:54 | using it since yesterday, over and over and over again. There was many trades |
| 334 | 00:29:54 --> 00:29:58 | over the london session, the European session, Asia's close overnight. Last |
| 335 | 00:29:58 --> 00:30:03 | night in Asia, there was trade. Around this orange box. They're there all the |
| 336 | 00:30:03 --> 00:30:06 | time, and you've never noticed them because they've never been in any retail |
| 337 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:10 | books. That's why you didn't see them. Because if someone says, Hey, look, ICT |
| 338 | 00:30:10 --> 00:30:14 | just reinvented something, they should see these setups. And they should be |
| 339 | 00:30:14 --> 00:30:20 | there before 1996 they should be there before 2016 for sure. And they aren't |
| 340 | 00:30:21 --> 00:30:30 | okay, so forget about it. So in here, once we got to here's 950 Okay, that's |
| 341 | 00:30:30 --> 00:30:36 | this candlestick right there, 950 now we're at the time. We're at the time |
| 342 | 00:30:37 --> 00:30:44 | when the market will do what spool now think about what has transpired. We had |
| 343 | 00:30:44 --> 00:30:53 | a nice up close week. We've had the market open with a small opening range. |
| 344 | 00:30:53 --> 00:31:03 | Gap, 20 handles we opened in yesterday's first presented fair value gap, the so |
| 345 | 00:31:03 --> 00:31:09 | this gap here is going to be the least important. We ran back and forth over |
| 346 | 00:31:09 --> 00:31:14 | top of the opening range gap, and yesterday's opening range gap did not |
| 347 | 00:31:14 --> 00:31:19 | even trade to its midpoint or consequent encroachment. It barely made its way |
| 348 | 00:31:19 --> 00:31:27 | towards the upper quadrant, so there's a huge discount, or a vacuum of price |
| 349 | 00:31:28 --> 00:31:32 | where there was no buying and selling, because it never went down into its gag |
| 350 | 00:31:32 --> 00:31:33 | yesterday at much |
| 351 | 00:31:34 --> 00:31:39 | so, because it's Friday, and TGIF is Thank God it's Friday, meaning that it's |
| 352 | 00:31:39 --> 00:31:45 | likely to Have a 20 to 30% retracement of what the total weekly range was. So |
| 353 | 00:31:45 --> 00:31:50 | there's a lot of things that could be built into expecting the market to work |
| 354 | 00:31:50 --> 00:31:58 | down below yesterday's first presented, fair Vega, but you have to wait until |
| 355 | 00:31:58 --> 00:32:01 | the algorithm, not the buying and selling pressure, kicking in. It's the |
| 356 | 00:32:01 --> 00:32:05 | algorithm, okay? It's the price engine that's going to start offering lower |
| 357 | 00:32:05 --> 00:32:09 | prices. And it matters not how many people you see on a depth of market or |
| 358 | 00:32:09 --> 00:32:14 | Level Two market makers don't use that shit, because what you're talking about, |
| 359 | 00:32:14 --> 00:32:17 | you're talking about a dealer. You're not making a market. If you're as a |
| 360 | 00:32:17 --> 00:32:22 | dealer, you're trading in the same price feed that everybody else is you're not |
| 361 | 00:32:22 --> 00:32:26 | making that price. That price is what's out there right now, and you aren't |
| 362 | 00:32:26 --> 00:32:31 | delivering it. You're not doing that. It's way above you. You have no idea |
| 363 | 00:32:31 --> 00:32:35 | what the hell's going on. And by understanding that these things are |
| 364 | 00:32:35 --> 00:32:38 | electronically driven in their algorithmic that means yes, there's |
| 365 | 00:32:38 --> 00:32:44 | going to be reflected time in sales that says there was buyers at this price and |
| 366 | 00:32:44 --> 00:32:47 | there were sellers at this price, and this was the amount of trade contracts |
| 367 | 00:32:47 --> 00:32:53 | there. But that's not that's not going to have any lasting directional |
| 368 | 00:32:53 --> 00:32:58 | influence. It might be a couple ticks here and there that, you know, it jumps |
| 369 | 00:32:58 --> 00:33:03 | to get those orders, but it's going to go lower because it's driven to go |
| 370 | 00:33:03 --> 00:33:07 | lower. It's scripted, and that's the part that most of you are struggling |
| 371 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:13 | with. I understand it's a little scary when you think about it, because we |
| 372 | 00:33:13 --> 00:33:16 | don't have a free market, then we don't have a free market, and I'm glad we |
| 373 | 00:33:16 --> 00:33:20 | don't have a free market, because that's what makes it advantageous. That's why I |
| 374 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:23 | can time this stuff, that's why I can explain it and make a concept around it, |
| 375 | 00:33:23 --> 00:33:28 | because it's scripted. You know what's going to likely occur unless there's |
| 376 | 00:33:28 --> 00:33:31 | manual intervention. So if there's things that are scripted, wouldn't it |
| 377 | 00:33:31 --> 00:33:37 | make sense that they're going to repeat the same times of day? Yes, absolutely |
| 378 | 00:33:38 --> 00:33:43 | every top of the hour first, I'm sorry, yeah, 10 minutes before you get to the |
| 379 | 00:33:43 --> 00:33:48 | top of the hour. That's in this case here, it's 9:50am and they last for 20 |
| 380 | 00:33:48 --> 00:33:52 | minutes. So in that 20 minute interval, what we're looking for is, okay, |
| 381 | 00:33:52 --> 00:33:58 | nothing. It's Friday. We have a small gap. We have a large range, and we've |
| 382 | 00:33:58 --> 00:34:02 | already taken by side here. So and we open inside of yesterday's first |
| 383 | 00:34:02 --> 00:34:09 | presented, fair Vega. Me getting to the point is this, it's more likely that |
| 384 | 00:34:09 --> 00:34:18 | it's going to spool at 950, to 1010, lower, lower. So if that's the case, if |
| 385 | 00:34:18 --> 00:34:24 | you're telling me that we're looking for yesterday's larger gap that didn't get |
| 386 | 00:34:24 --> 00:34:28 | traded too much, because we have a very anemic, small gap here today. Well, |
| 387 | 00:34:28 --> 00:34:32 | simply just be aware of those levels, but focus on yesterday's gap because |
| 388 | 00:34:33 --> 00:34:36 | there's more opportunity for the market to want to go down into that area, |
| 389 | 00:34:36 --> 00:34:44 | because it's going to offer efficient delivery, buying and selling is not |
| 390 | 00:34:44 --> 00:34:49 | pushing price. It doesn't matter how much buying and selling is occurring. If |
| 391 | 00:34:49 --> 00:34:52 | the market's going lower, it's going lower because it's going there, because |
| 392 | 00:34:52 --> 00:34:57 | it's driven there, not by the selling, not because there's a lack of buyers. |
| 393 | 00:34:58 --> 00:35:04 | It's simply a. Being taken there, because it's coded to do that. And yes, |
| 394 | 00:35:04 --> 00:35:09 | you'll see all as as the transactions come in, because people are sentiment |
| 395 | 00:35:09 --> 00:35:15 | driven animals. Okay, we we're greedy, we're scared, we're fearful, we're |
| 396 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:20 | impulsive. So naturally, yes, yes, we can look in all these candlesticks, and |
| 397 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:24 | smart people with hindsight can say, Look at this. ICT is talking nonsense, |
| 398 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:27 | because all you have to do is look at the volume profile, and all you have to |
| 399 | 00:35:27 --> 00:35:30 | do is look at the time and time in sales, and all you have to do is look at |
| 400 | 00:35:30 --> 00:35:38 | level two. You need that bullshit after it has happened. You're looking at that. |
| 401 | 00:35:39 --> 00:35:43 | You're justifying something after that's happened in the depth of market, those |
| 402 | 00:35:43 --> 00:35:47 | ladders that show you supposedly where, like, there's this many buyers waiting |
| 403 | 00:35:47 --> 00:35:51 | above here at this price, or this many sellers waiting here. They're not all |
| 404 | 00:35:51 --> 00:35:57 | real orders. They're not all real orders. So you're being you're it's a |
| 405 | 00:35:57 --> 00:36:02 | spoofing. There's been large institutions that got themselves in |
| 406 | 00:36:02 --> 00:36:06 | trouble doing that very thing. So why would you look at something where |
| 407 | 00:36:06 --> 00:36:09 | they're dangling carrots when those carrots really aren't there? It's a |
| 408 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:14 | mirage. But see, I know what I'm looking for, and I don't need a book map. I |
| 409 | 00:36:14 --> 00:36:19 | don't need those instruments out there that tell you supposedly a pseudo amount |
| 410 | 00:36:19 --> 00:36:23 | of contracts that are resting at a specific price level, above or below the |
| 411 | 00:36:23 --> 00:36:27 | market price. You don't need those things. You don't need them. But I would |
| 412 | 00:36:27 --> 00:36:31 | have loved having it in the beginning, because I didn't understand the concept |
| 413 | 00:36:31 --> 00:36:36 | of liquidity. But when you understand liquidity, you're going to get confused |
| 414 | 00:36:36 --> 00:36:40 | by looking at those tools only and not understanding what the algorithm is |
| 415 | 00:36:40 --> 00:36:43 | doing, just simply, because there's a lot of orders above the market. Above |
| 416 | 00:36:43 --> 00:36:47 | the market doesn't mean it's going to go up. All you have to do is study it all. |
| 417 | 00:36:47 --> 00:36:52 | At any given time, any day, you'll see that there's a large pool of orders that |
| 418 | 00:36:52 --> 00:36:55 | just simply aren't going to get traded to. And you're thinking, Okay, well, |
| 419 | 00:36:55 --> 00:37:00 | they're not interested. Who's that? When you talk like that, who is the they but |
| 420 | 00:37:00 --> 00:37:04 | when I say today, you all get a case of the ass like, you know, this guy's a |
| 421 | 00:37:04 --> 00:37:10 | conspiracy nut, but there's an algorithm that delivers price, and if you can time |
| 422 | 00:37:10 --> 00:37:17 | when to anticipate the market reacting a specific way, the condition is this. The |
| 423 | 00:37:17 --> 00:37:21 | narrative is this. It's going to go lower. When I tweeted this morning, I |
| 424 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:26 | said, focus on two sell side liquidity pools. Does that sound bullish to you? I |
| 425 | 00:37:26 --> 00:37:30 | mean something below the market. So again, the direction was right. |
| 426 | 00:37:41 --> 00:37:44 | There's a short term low there, there's a short term low right there, there's a |
| 427 | 00:37:44 --> 00:37:47 | short term low right there, there's a short term low right there, and there's |
| 428 | 00:37:47 --> 00:37:53 | a short term low right there. Okay, I used the easiest one that would be below |
| 429 | 00:37:53 --> 00:37:58 | here. So that's this one here. This one I'm not too concerned about. I ain't |
| 430 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:02 | worried about the fair value gap, because if we're going to get down here, |
| 431 | 00:38:02 --> 00:38:08 | it's going to want to go below these relative equal lives. So from up here at |
| 432 | 00:38:08 --> 00:38:16 | 950 I'm anticipating the market at that time it's going to start, it's going to |
| 433 | 00:38:16 --> 00:38:22 | start moving in that direction. That's what a macro is. A macro is a small list |
| 434 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:29 | of directives that this program, because that's all it is. It starts processing |
| 435 | 00:38:29 --> 00:38:36 | and delivering on the basis of how fast it's told to do it, how many times it |
| 436 | 00:38:36 --> 00:38:40 | has to stop. And create this scenario here, which is time distortion. You are |
| 437 | 00:38:40 --> 00:38:46 | all told that it's chop, or it's consolidation, or it's indecisiveness. |
| 438 | 00:38:46 --> 00:38:51 | It moves. It knows exactly what it's doing. Folks, it know. It knows exactly |
| 439 | 00:38:51 --> 00:38:55 | what it's doing. It has a list of directions, and it's following it. |
| 440 | 00:38:56 --> 00:39:01 | That's all it does, okay? And this engine that delivers and manipulates |
| 441 | 00:39:01 --> 00:39:09 | price. We all are watching a video game, and we have no control with our buying |
| 442 | 00:39:09 --> 00:39:13 | and selling. If we could, if we had that much influence because of our buying and |
| 443 | 00:39:13 --> 00:39:17 | selling, we could crash the market. We could send it to the moon any given day. |
| 444 | 00:39:19 --> 00:39:22 | We could do that. There's enough people in the world that that can happen. |
| 445 | 00:39:24 --> 00:39:31 | Think, but when there is a perfect opportunity to screw people over, they |
| 446 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:35 | will manually intervene, and that's how you get the game stop in the Blackberry, |
| 447 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:41 | in the AMC theaters, Reddit, they got together and they said, Look, we're |
| 448 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:45 | gonna, we're gonna screw all the hedge funds. Well, the hedge funds, they |
| 449 | 00:39:45 --> 00:39:51 | aren't controlling price. They're just big players in it, but they don't know |
| 450 | 00:39:51 --> 00:39:55 | what they're doing. They're just in there gambling with large pockets, deep |
| 451 | 00:39:55 --> 00:40:02 | pockets. But when you have the ability to control price. Price, and you say, |
| 452 | 00:40:02 --> 00:40:05 | Okay, there's a whole bunch of suckers out there reading Reddit, and they're |
| 453 | 00:40:05 --> 00:40:11 | all going to start piling in and buying it up. Okay, wonderful. They'll buy too, |
| 454 | 00:40:12 --> 00:40:17 | because they're greedy. They the hand. And what they'll do is they'll offer |
| 455 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:24 | big, huge skips in pricing, where the price is just gapping up like crazy, |
| 456 | 00:40:25 --> 00:40:28 | because they know that there's going to be a fevered pitch to do what buy it. |
| 457 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:32 | It's going to keep going up. It's going to keep going up. And the more people on |
| 458 | 00:40:32 --> 00:40:35 | Reddit, the more people on Twitter, the more people on Instagram that we're |
| 459 | 00:40:35 --> 00:40:38 | talking about those stocks, which I said, don't touch them. Don't touch |
| 460 | 00:40:38 --> 00:40:45 | them. That's a Ponzi. The market makers were literally building in a premium. |
| 461 | 00:40:45 --> 00:40:48 | They were just literally offering higher, higher, higher, and they were |
| 462 | 00:40:48 --> 00:40:53 | getting traded at that's the same principle here. It's just being slowed |
| 463 | 00:40:53 --> 00:40:59 | down to a manner where it's it doesn't look like except for normal price |
| 464 | 00:40:59 --> 00:41:04 | delivery. It's not shocking. It's not jarring. Now there's days like left OMC, |
| 465 | 00:41:04 --> 00:41:09 | there's Non Farm Payroll, CPI, ppi, those types of news drivers are the same |
| 466 | 00:41:09 --> 00:41:19 | event that you've seen happen in AMC, BlackBerry, in GameStop. That's the same |
| 467 | 00:41:19 --> 00:41:25 | thing. That's the same thing that happened with Bitcoin. That's all that |
| 468 | 00:41:25 --> 00:41:28 | you watch that happen like that. That's how I timed it when it when I told you |
| 469 | 00:41:28 --> 00:41:31 | in years ago, I said, it ain't going to go to 20,000 it's going to go to 6000 |
| 470 | 00:41:31 --> 00:41:36 | it's going to go to 3000 and I was right. And then I said, I'll tell you |
| 471 | 00:41:36 --> 00:41:39 | when it's going to go 20,000 and I did. Then I told you when it's going to go to |
| 472 | 00:41:39 --> 00:41:44 | 30 and 60. And when we got to 70,000 I said we're done, and then it traded |
| 473 | 00:41:44 --> 00:41:48 | lower. Yes, there's a meme out there where I said it's going to go to $100 |
| 474 | 00:41:49 --> 00:41:54 | because I ultimately know it's going to it's going to be worthless later on. But |
| 475 | 00:41:54 --> 00:41:59 | right now, it's a wonderful little Ponzi for people to get cooked in. But the |
| 476 | 00:41:59 --> 00:42:06 | market is slowing that Ponzi scheme down where it is allowing people to go into |
| 477 | 00:42:06 --> 00:42:11 | these markets and provide liquidity for people that use them professionally. |
| 478 | 00:42:11 --> 00:42:14 | There's always going to be something out here trading, and it only takes one |
| 479 | 00:42:14 --> 00:42:19 | contract to trade and make that price book on your chart. But that's not |
| 480 | 00:42:19 --> 00:42:23 | buying and selling pressure if the for instance, let me suspend your disability |
| 481 | 00:42:23 --> 00:42:26 | this belief for a second, okay, just for the sake of having a conversation here. |
| 482 | 00:42:26 --> 00:42:29 | Because if you don't give me this, you must have just turned the video off. |
| 483 | 00:42:31 --> 00:42:37 | Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that at 950 to 1010, something |
| 484 | 00:42:37 --> 00:42:43 | artificial, some artificial intelligence, starts a program, and it |
| 485 | 00:42:43 --> 00:42:46 | starts offering lower prices. And it doesn't matter how many people come in |
| 486 | 00:42:46 --> 00:42:49 | to buy it, it's just going to keep going lower offering lower prices, lower |
| 487 | 00:42:49 --> 00:42:53 | prices. What do you think that does? Well for people that want to buy it, |
| 488 | 00:42:53 --> 00:42:57 | they're thinking, wow, it's that's cheaper. Now let me buy it. Oh, wow, |
| 489 | 00:42:57 --> 00:43:00 | it's down with this support. Let me buy it. Oh, it's at this old high. Let me |
| 490 | 00:43:00 --> 00:43:05 | buy it. Oh, it went below here. So we're going to do some of those real tricks |
| 491 | 00:43:05 --> 00:43:11 | where you can buy, sell stops, because that's what crafty traders do. Well, it |
| 492 | 00:43:11 --> 00:43:15 | just keeps going lower, and it keeps going lower, below that. What about the |
| 493 | 00:43:15 --> 00:43:20 | support that was supposed to be here? It just keeps going lower. So who's right? |
| 494 | 00:43:20 --> 00:43:27 | What school of thoughts right here? Mine. This algorithm is repricing. |
| 495 | 00:43:27 --> 00:43:32 | That's all it's doing. But what happens is, the people that know this is |
| 496 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:36 | occurring, the people that learn from me, the people are out there actually |
| 497 | 00:43:36 --> 00:43:38 | using it too, outside of my own hands and influence now, because they learned |
| 498 | 00:43:38 --> 00:43:48 | it, they can be short in this move, and they can profit without any worry about |
| 499 | 00:43:48 --> 00:43:56 | being a pattern, an old, archaic methodology. No white golf, no Sam side |
| 500 | 00:43:56 --> 00:44:01 | and stuff, no Gan no Elliott Wave, none of that stuff. No hearse cycles, none of |
| 501 | 00:44:01 --> 00:44:09 | that, none of that stuff. It's simply understanding time. There you go. And |
| 502 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:13 | price. Price is going to behave like this. It's going to start rebooking and |
| 503 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:19 | delivering to sell side. That's time and price theory. ICT style. We're not doing |
| 504 | 00:44:19 --> 00:44:25 | diagonal trend lines. We're not doing Geograph geometry and and all kinds of |
| 505 | 00:44:25 --> 00:44:30 | pattern stuff. And that's all. It's nonsense. That's a religion. That's all |
| 506 | 00:44:30 --> 00:44:34 | religious thought process. When you're looking at price, price patterns, and |
| 507 | 00:44:34 --> 00:44:37 | you think this is somehow having an influence. It has influence over people |
| 508 | 00:44:37 --> 00:44:40 | buying and selling, but that buying and selling of these people are doing has |
| 509 | 00:44:40 --> 00:44:45 | absolutely no bearing on what these artificially delivered markets are |
| 510 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:53 | doing. So how can we capitalize on that? Well, if you're inside this opening |
| 511 | 00:44:53 --> 00:44:59 | range between 930 and 10 o'clock, the time for it to start going lower is now. |
| 512 | 00:44:59 --> 00:45:05 | I. At hand at 950 now we want to see it trade lower. I want to see it go through |
| 513 | 00:45:05 --> 00:45:10 | today's fair value gap, because it's time to do so. We've already trapped |
| 514 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:15 | traders up here. So now it's going to attack what this pool of liquidity right |
| 515 | 00:45:15 --> 00:45:18 | there that hasn't been traded to yet. Let me take these vertical lines off, |
| 516 | 00:45:18 --> 00:45:23 | because I don't want you thinking that candlestick wicks or anything. So this |
| 517 | 00:45:23 --> 00:45:26 | is a good shit. I know. I wish I would have known this when I first started. So |
| 518 | 00:45:26 --> 00:45:29 | right below here we're targeting that. We're targeting that because there's |
| 519 | 00:45:29 --> 00:45:34 | going to be what, what's resting below there. Cell stops. Somebody went long |
| 520 | 00:45:34 --> 00:45:39 | there, and that's all the algorithm needs to know. Is there was a low here. |
| 521 | 00:45:39 --> 00:45:43 | So it's going to keep dropping down till it gets to here. Oh, there's a lot of |
| 522 | 00:45:43 --> 00:45:46 | buyers. It's real cheap. Doesn't matter. It's going to keep going lower because |
| 523 | 00:45:46 --> 00:45:52 | it knows its list of directives. That's what a macro is. It's a short little |
| 524 | 00:45:52 --> 00:45:56 | program script that it starts doing something specifically, and what it's |
| 525 | 00:45:56 --> 00:46:00 | specifically doing is going to the liquidity pools that I'm telling you |
| 526 | 00:46:00 --> 00:46:05 | it's going to go to now let I'll let you figure out how that works. So when it |
| 527 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:19 | drops here and here and in the relative equal lows over here, right there, we |
| 528 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:23 | can now anticipate that once we get through the bottom of this fair value |
| 529 | 00:46:23 --> 00:46:28 | gap, I've already removed my interest in IT. I just want to see it trade below |
| 530 | 00:46:28 --> 00:46:32 | it. If it were to trade back up to it and bump it like an inversion, fair |
| 531 | 00:46:32 --> 00:46:38 | value gap all the better, fine. But because of this day being manipulated |
| 532 | 00:46:38 --> 00:46:43 | like it is, because of all the factors, Friday, small opening, range gap, large |
| 533 | 00:46:43 --> 00:46:48 | range yesterday, so many things, and we opened inside of yesterday's first |
| 534 | 00:46:48 --> 00:46:53 | presented fair value gap. That's a huge list of things that I need this to start |
| 535 | 00:46:53 --> 00:46:58 | moving in my favor. I'm not a breakout trader that you'll see clearly where I'm |
| 536 | 00:46:58 --> 00:47:02 | getting in it. I'm not I'm not breaking out to the downside and going short |
| 537 | 00:47:02 --> 00:47:08 | based on that. Because I didn't want my gap shown like this. I wanted to take |
| 538 | 00:47:08 --> 00:47:13 | away that volume imbalance, which is this candle sticks closed and this |
| 539 | 00:47:13 --> 00:47:16 | candle sticks open. I'm going to take that away and put it just on the wick |
| 540 | 00:47:17 --> 00:47:20 | like that. So now I'm showing this candle sticks low, this candle sticks |
| 541 | 00:47:20 --> 00:47:25 | high. And I'm ignoring this volume imbalance, because it's the least |
| 542 | 00:47:25 --> 00:47:27 | impactful or important thing. |
| 543 | 00:47:27 --> 00:47:32 | Because this gap the first present, if everybody got from yesterday, we opened |
| 544 | 00:47:32 --> 00:47:37 | in it. So it's been using it. So the algorithms tipping its hand saying, this |
| 545 | 00:47:37 --> 00:47:41 | is the level I'm working with. It's the high of it, the upper quadrant, the |
| 546 | 00:47:41 --> 00:47:45 | middle, the lower quadrant and the low. They're very specific prices. It's not a |
| 547 | 00:47:45 --> 00:47:53 | zone. When we're bearish, we want to see it not go back in the upper half once it |
| 548 | 00:47:53 --> 00:47:57 | goes down, what does that look like? Well, because I'm not looking at the |
| 549 | 00:47:57 --> 00:48:00 | volume of balance here, I can then see this as a breakaway gap, which is what |
| 550 | 00:48:00 --> 00:48:04 | you'll see in the video where I'll annotate it. Okay, I'll show you that |
| 551 | 00:48:04 --> 00:48:09 | this is what I'm viewing, this as a breakaway gap, meaning that, because |
| 552 | 00:48:09 --> 00:48:13 | it's the time of the market wanting to rebook and price lower, and it doesn't |
| 553 | 00:48:13 --> 00:48:17 | have any effect on the buying and selling influence. There's no influence |
| 554 | 00:48:17 --> 00:48:22 | by buyers and sellers causing that. It's just artificially being delivered lower |
| 555 | 00:48:22 --> 00:48:28 | to take liquidity in here. What liquidity is in this area here? Nobody's |
| 556 | 00:48:28 --> 00:48:33 | nobody's actively going in and placing big bets there. But there absolutely was |
| 557 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:36 | orders resting above this high, but they've already worked there. So what's |
| 558 | 00:48:36 --> 00:48:39 | the opposing liquidity? If this is the buy side that was taken, where's the |
| 559 | 00:48:39 --> 00:48:45 | nearest obvious sell side liquidity pool, right there at that low. So the |
| 560 | 00:48:45 --> 00:48:48 | algorithm doesn't know how many contracts there are. It doesn't know. It |
| 561 | 00:48:48 --> 00:48:51 | doesn't need to know that. It just knows that that low hasn't been traded to so |
| 562 | 00:48:51 --> 00:48:57 | let's start driving lower. And the macro is this. It looks back through the |
| 563 | 00:48:57 --> 00:49:03 | previous session. That's all it's doing, folks. It's very simple. It's going back |
| 564 | 00:49:03 --> 00:49:08 | to the previous session overnight, yesterday afternoon, this morning, |
| 565 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:14 | London, Asia. It's just cycling back through the previous session. That's all |
| 566 | 00:49:14 --> 00:49:18 | these things are doing. And it's easy. It cannot hide it from you. I don't know |
| 567 | 00:49:18 --> 00:49:21 | why you guys are fighting it, your your arm wrestling, because you want to hold |
| 568 | 00:49:21 --> 00:49:28 | on to your little bullshit concepts, retail horseshit. Every retail trader is |
| 569 | 00:49:28 --> 00:49:32 | looking for something in here, Moving Average crossover, some kind of bullshit |
| 570 | 00:49:32 --> 00:49:39 | Golden Cross. That's dumb. It's stupid. You have no advantage in that. You have |
| 571 | 00:49:39 --> 00:49:42 | every reason to get into a trade, and believe this is why you have made that |
| 572 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:45 | decision. But that decision has no bearing on why the price is going to go |
| 573 | 00:49:45 --> 00:49:51 | up or down. I'm telling you what it's doing. This gap here tells me that I'm |
| 574 | 00:49:51 --> 00:49:55 | absolutely seeing what I expect to see, which is it's going to drive down to |
| 575 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:00 | here. So once we enter with this candlestick here, we're. Inside this |
| 576 | 00:50:00 --> 00:50:05 | orange box here, that's yesterday's first traded or, I'm sorry, first |
| 577 | 00:50:05 --> 00:50:12 | presented fair value guy between 930 and 10 o'clock. Once it trades down like |
| 578 | 00:50:12 --> 00:50:17 | this, I'm waiting for it to come right back up and get the high of it. So |
| 579 | 00:50:17 --> 00:50:21 | essentially, what am I doing? I'm selling short when the market's going up |
| 580 | 00:50:22 --> 00:50:26 | on an uptick. That's what high frequency trading algorithms do. That's what smart |
| 581 | 00:50:26 --> 00:50:30 | money does. That's what large fund traders do. They cannot sell short on a |
| 582 | 00:50:30 --> 00:50:34 | downtick. They have to wait for an uptick. Some of them have filters where |
| 583 | 00:50:34 --> 00:50:38 | they have to wait for price to move up for a certain threshold, and then they |
| 584 | 00:50:38 --> 00:50:41 | can start going in and selling short or dropping down for a certain measure of |
| 585 | 00:50:41 --> 00:50:45 | time or a percentage where they can start buying, but you're not privy of |
| 586 | 00:50:45 --> 00:50:49 | all that stuff, because it ain't in your books, okay? But that's the real stuff. |
| 587 | 00:50:49 --> 00:50:54 | That's the real things that go on. So if we can anticipate the market trading in |
| 588 | 00:50:54 --> 00:50:58 | this candlestick here, when it goes up into the high, I have an opportunity to |
| 589 | 00:50:58 --> 00:51:01 | do it there, or I have an opportunity to do it right there, and then what |
| 590 | 00:51:01 --> 00:51:06 | happens? It breaks lower and trades to the middle or consequent approach of |
| 591 | 00:51:06 --> 00:51:10 | that shaded orange area that's yesterday's first presented fair value |
| 592 | 00:51:10 --> 00:51:15 | gap. Once it does this, it gives you a breakaway gap it runs into, it gives an |
| 593 | 00:51:15 --> 00:51:20 | opportunity to trade to the top of it, and then goes to the mid port, or |
| 594 | 00:51:20 --> 00:51:26 | consequent crochet of it middle and goes down below it. It should never listen, |
| 595 | 00:51:26 --> 00:51:31 | okay? This is never, ever, ever repeated anywhere else you can say it. It is, but |
| 596 | 00:51:31 --> 00:51:35 | find it in a book and get your money, because nobody's able to do it. Just |
| 597 | 00:51:35 --> 00:51:40 | talking about what it looks like and what it is. This candlestick here we go, |
| 598 | 00:51:40 --> 00:51:43 | right up and hit the middle for consequent encouragement, and then we |
| 599 | 00:51:43 --> 00:51:50 | leave. We leave that previous day's first presented fair value guy. So now |
| 600 | 00:51:50 --> 00:51:50 | watch, here's |
| 601 | 00:52:00 --> 00:52:03 | that candlestick, right? Here we trade into it and hit consequence encroachment |
| 602 | 00:52:03 --> 00:52:09 | of yesterday's first presented fair value gap. The next candle. Look where |
| 603 | 00:52:09 --> 00:52:13 | my entry is. You see that? Watch when I hover top of it. See it? It's at the |
| 604 | 00:52:13 --> 00:52:23 | high of yesterday's first fair value gap. It's random, right? But ICT, why |
| 605 | 00:52:23 --> 00:52:27 | didn't you trade in the fair value gap? Why didn't you do something else? |
| 606 | 00:52:27 --> 00:52:31 | Because I know what I'm doing. I know what I'm looking for. Okay, so I'm |
| 607 | 00:52:31 --> 00:52:38 | entering at the high that gap, and then I know I'm I'm really on side because I |
| 608 | 00:52:38 --> 00:52:43 | had the breakaway gap. I'm in time, the time of the market being delivered |
| 609 | 00:52:43 --> 00:52:47 | algorithmically, I know that everything is in my favor, that this is going to go |
| 610 | 00:52:47 --> 00:52:53 | lower, contrast that with I hope my harmonic pattern here. I hope my rabid |
| 611 | 00:52:53 --> 00:52:58 | platypus fucking pattern, okay, I hope that it's my moving averages don't get |
| 612 | 00:52:58 --> 00:53:04 | pierced through. I hope my overbought stochastics or divergence is going to be |
| 613 | 00:53:04 --> 00:53:09 | profitable. This time, you are worrying about things that you can't control. I |
| 614 | 00:53:09 --> 00:53:13 | am believing something that I know controls price. Who has the greater |
| 615 | 00:53:13 --> 00:53:19 | faith? Why do you think I talk the way I talk? It sounds arrogant, doesn't it |
| 616 | 00:53:19 --> 00:53:23 | sounds egotistical, narcissistic. That's all the descriptive adjectives that |
| 617 | 00:53:23 --> 00:53:26 | people place on me. And you know what that means? I'm being complimented. |
| 618 | 00:53:26 --> 00:53:31 | That's how I take it, because you see something in me and my students. Because |
| 619 | 00:53:31 --> 00:53:38 | we are doers. We are not talkers, we are fucking doers. We know exactly what |
| 620 | 00:53:38 --> 00:53:41 | we're looking for. We're calm, we're collected and cool. But when some joker |
| 621 | 00:53:41 --> 00:53:45 | comes stepping up here and talking some nonsense about retail this and retail |
| 622 | 00:53:45 --> 00:53:49 | that, or something's better, something that please come, come and get your ass |
| 623 | 00:53:49 --> 00:53:55 | sorted, let's go. Cuz I will show you you know nothing. And I'll be polite |
| 624 | 00:53:55 --> 00:54:01 | about it. I'll be polite about it because I know if you see it, and you |
| 625 | 00:54:01 --> 00:54:07 | taste it, you're convinced, and you're going to be wanting to know, how the |
| 626 | 00:54:07 --> 00:54:11 | hell I did it. How the hell did he do that? How the hell does he know that |
| 627 | 00:54:11 --> 00:54:15 | stuff? Right? It's in my YouTube channel. It's in long discussions like |
| 628 | 00:54:15 --> 00:54:19 | this video here. It's in your eyes. You're thinking, it's taking too much |
| 629 | 00:54:19 --> 00:54:22 | time. It's taking so much time. But I'm teaching you, I'm showing you, this is |
| 630 | 00:54:22 --> 00:54:26 | what you're supposed to be looking for. Because if there is an algorithm, it's |
| 631 | 00:54:26 --> 00:54:30 | going to do these things every single day, every single day. It's going to |
| 632 | 00:54:30 --> 00:54:37 | repeat these same types of things. Getting short here. Then it trades down. |
| 633 | 00:54:38 --> 00:54:45 | It does not take the relative equal lows out yet on this drop down here. But what |
| 634 | 00:54:45 --> 00:54:51 | does it do? It trades all the way back up to some random level. It's the low of |
| 635 | 00:54:51 --> 00:54:58 | yesterday's first presented fair value gap. That candlestick hitting. It's the |
| 636 | 00:54:58 --> 00:55:02 | first candlestick it touches. It. It because I'm marketing, and you can see |
| 637 | 00:55:02 --> 00:55:05 | this, I have to do the market order because I have people believing that |
| 638 | 00:55:05 --> 00:55:09 | it's Market Replay. And you can't use the upper left hand corner buttons for |
| 639 | 00:55:09 --> 00:55:12 | the buying and selling on Market Replay, because they're down somewhere over |
| 640 | 00:55:12 --> 00:55:18 | here. So I do it that way. I could have very, very precise entries if I'm using |
| 641 | 00:55:18 --> 00:55:21 | limit orders, and I will be doing limit orders in his mentorship. So that way |
| 642 | 00:55:21 --> 00:55:25 | you can see how to get really good, tight entries. So that way your stops |
| 643 | 00:55:25 --> 00:55:29 | can be a little bit more meaningful in terms of managing the risk. So I'll |
| 644 | 00:55:29 --> 00:55:33 | teach you how to be more precise about your entries. But Caleb doesn't need to |
| 645 | 00:55:33 --> 00:55:37 | know that yet. He just needs to know how to engage price and see what it's like |
| 646 | 00:55:37 --> 00:55:41 | to get in and watch what price does afterwards. So getting in there, and |
| 647 | 00:55:41 --> 00:55:45 | then ultimately it trades back down and goes to that, see that little tick right |
| 648 | 00:55:45 --> 00:55:50 | here that's below relative equal lows over here. So entering here at the top |
| 649 | 00:55:51 --> 00:55:56 | of yesterday's fair value I got, and getting out at the low underneath the |
| 650 | 00:55:56 --> 00:56:01 | relative Eagle lows I gave you on Twitter. That's not Market Replay, |
| 651 | 00:56:01 --> 00:56:07 | folks. Okay, this is all the really, real shit. Okay, just because I'm |
| 652 | 00:56:07 --> 00:56:11 | teaching in a demo or paper trading account for my own personal protection, |
| 653 | 00:56:11 --> 00:56:15 | because I'm not licensed to get trade advice, all I'm talking to you about is |
| 654 | 00:56:15 --> 00:56:20 | how I know these candlesticks are going to do certain things. I am not promising |
| 655 | 00:56:20 --> 00:56:24 | that it's going to make you money. I can't do that. I can't promise that |
| 656 | 00:56:24 --> 00:56:27 | you're going to get rich. I can't but I can promise you that you're going to |
| 657 | 00:56:27 --> 00:56:31 | learn how to read these candlesticks better than anybody else can teach you. |
| 658 | 00:56:31 --> 00:56:35 | And some have, some of my students have gotten really good at and they said, I'm |
| 659 | 00:56:35 --> 00:56:38 | going to make my own decision. And these are for the people that left this |
| 660 | 00:56:38 --> 00:56:45 | comment. How do you know when to trade with real money? You'll know. I'm never |
| 661 | 00:56:45 --> 00:56:48 | going to tell you you're ready to trade with real money. You're going to know |
| 662 | 00:56:48 --> 00:56:54 | because you're so bored of doing it in paper and it's so consistent, the |
| 663 | 00:56:54 --> 00:56:57 | natural progression is going to be you're going to try and see what |
| 664 | 00:56:57 --> 00:57:01 | happens. And I never tell you to do that, but when you feel like you're |
| 665 | 00:57:01 --> 00:57:04 | going to do it and you don't even need to ask somebody else's opinion, then |
| 666 | 00:57:04 --> 00:57:08 | that's when you're going to be ready. But unfortunately, people see a video, |
| 667 | 00:57:08 --> 00:57:12 | or they watch a group of people trading, and they get caught up in the frenzy of |
| 668 | 00:57:12 --> 00:57:16 | them being right once in a while, and that's unfortunately what happens when |
| 669 | 00:57:16 --> 00:57:19 | you watch these influencers that are live streaming. They have affiliate |
| 670 | 00:57:19 --> 00:57:22 | links at the bottom, and not all of them are assholes, but they all do have this |
| 671 | 00:57:22 --> 00:57:27 | same characteristic. They're out there putting it in front of you and you |
| 672 | 00:57:27 --> 00:57:31 | because you have selective sight, selective hearing, much like trolls. |
| 673 | 00:57:31 --> 00:57:33 | They don't see the proof that I'm providing. They don't see all the |
| 674 | 00:57:33 --> 00:57:38 | profitable students. They don't see it. They don't want to see it, the people |
| 675 | 00:57:38 --> 00:57:42 | that watch these other live streamers, and when they get it right, they think, |
| 676 | 00:57:42 --> 00:57:44 | Wow, if I would have did that, I could have made that money today. And then |
| 677 | 00:57:44 --> 00:57:47 | what they do is they pay for the affiliate link to get a funded account |
| 678 | 00:57:47 --> 00:57:51 | challenge, and they go in, they follow the same person tomorrow, and the luck |
| 679 | 00:57:51 --> 00:57:56 | that they had the previous day, because that's 99% of what you're seeing. They |
| 680 | 00:57:56 --> 00:57:59 | fail in front of you, and you copied them. You don't have any idea why they |
| 681 | 00:57:59 --> 00:58:03 | took the trade, but you're waiting for that. Feel good. Mormon, fuzzy. See, I |
| 682 | 00:58:03 --> 00:58:08 | don't do that. I'm teaching you how to do this on your own. Because no one's |
| 683 | 00:58:08 --> 00:58:11 | going to tell me that I haven't created profitable students, because it's all |
| 684 | 00:58:11 --> 00:58:16 | over the place. And once you are a profitable student, no one's going to |
| 685 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:21 | tell you what you've learned is made up, contrived nonsense, make believe. Okay, |
| 686 | 00:58:22 --> 00:58:26 | they're going to give you every excuse, but you're the one making money. You're |
| 687 | 00:58:26 --> 00:58:29 | the one that stops your job, and you stay home, and you live a life that's |
| 688 | 00:58:29 --> 00:58:33 | different, and they're going to be hating you any chance that they can have |
| 689 | 00:58:33 --> 00:58:36 | to say something negative at that time. Who cares what they say? But in the |
| 690 | 00:58:36 --> 00:58:40 | beginning, you have to just weigh it out. Who's doing what I'm teaching you |
| 691 | 00:58:40 --> 00:58:45 | for free. There's no obligation for you to come back to my YouTube channel. |
| 692 | 00:58:45 --> 00:58:51 | There's zero obligation. But I keep producing, don't I, and you can't get |
| 693 | 00:58:51 --> 00:58:56 | away from me, because now the bug has bit you, and when you taste and see this |
| 694 | 00:58:56 --> 00:59:01 | stuff happen in your own in your own hands, it's over for you. You'll never |
| 695 | 00:59:01 --> 00:59:04 | want to look at the market any other way, and you're going to want to learn |
| 696 | 00:59:04 --> 00:59:08 | more, and then you become addicted to it, and you can't be an addict without |
| 697 | 00:59:08 --> 00:59:15 | ICT in the name. You're one of the brood. And that's, unfortunately, on the |
| 698 | 00:59:15 --> 00:59:19 | outside, looks like a cult, but I don't have any control over you. I'm giving |
| 699 | 00:59:19 --> 00:59:23 | you the freedom. I'm giving you the freedom to have an independent thought |
| 700 | 00:59:23 --> 00:59:29 | process that allows you to make your future whatever you want it to be, and |
| 701 | 00:59:29 --> 00:59:34 | that's exciting. So anyway, I did a lot of trail stop losses for the purposes of |
| 702 | 00:59:34 --> 00:59:40 | showing Caleb and where I placed a stop would be based on what his expectation |
| 703 | 00:59:40 --> 00:59:45 | would be in terms of placing a stop loss, and you'll see that in the video, |
| 704 | 00:59:45 --> 00:59:48 | but these, that's what this is here, that's being stopped out, and then |
| 705 | 00:59:49 --> 00:59:55 | that's being stopped out, and then I went back in. This is not something for |
| 706 | 00:59:55 --> 00:59:58 | him. This is just me, because I knew I was going to talk about this today with |
| 707 | 00:59:58 --> 01:00:05 | y'all. Is this is me twisting and. So over here, if you look at this |
| 708 | 01:00:05 --> 01:00:11 | candlestick right there, this long lowest candlestick, let me get it out of |
| 709 | 01:00:11 --> 01:00:17 | the the view of my little watermark here, this, this candlestick right here |
| 710 | 01:00:17 --> 01:00:22 | is the lowest of all the lows in here, before we see this drop down. Can you |
| 711 | 01:00:22 --> 01:00:28 | agree with that this one here is not being factored yet, not for my decision. |
| 712 | 01:00:28 --> 01:00:33 | While I'm watching the candlesticks over here, I'm looking at that one. So what |
| 713 | 01:00:33 --> 01:00:41 | I'm seeing is this. I'm measuring the body down to the low okay, if you ever |
| 714 | 01:00:41 --> 01:00:45 | see my charts, have one single line, and it just looks like it's floating out |
| 715 | 01:00:45 --> 01:00:49 | there around nothing. This is anchored to nothing that makes any sense. If you |
| 716 | 01:00:49 --> 01:00:54 | look back at my old recordings, even stuff on baby pips, you'll see me |
| 717 | 01:00:54 --> 01:00:57 | anchoring there, and that's the consequent encroachment of this discount |
| 718 | 01:00:57 --> 01:01:07 | wick. If I'm bearish, I can enter at that price. See that tick right here. |
| 719 | 01:01:07 --> 01:01:11 | Watch, see that. What's the price of the consequent crush of that width, right |
| 720 | 01:01:11 --> 01:01:22 | there? 19,009 74.25, tell me who is Daddy. You're damn right. It's Poppy |
| 721 | 01:01:22 --> 01:01:28 | ICT. It's Poppy ICT, baby. It's repeating phenomena of precision, |
| 722 | 01:01:29 --> 01:01:34 | perfect. It's perfect. Getting at the high of yesterday's Fairbank yet that |
| 723 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:37 | nobody would have been looking at it. Chris Laurie would have been talking |
| 724 | 01:01:37 --> 01:01:42 | about that yesterday and into today. Nope. Wouldn't happened. White cough |
| 725 | 01:01:42 --> 01:01:47 | wouldn't have done it. Nobody getting out below the short term low relative |
| 726 | 01:01:47 --> 01:01:53 | equal lows over here, there. But now here, I know that we're going to dig a |
| 727 | 01:01:53 --> 01:01:59 | little bit deeper, so this level here, let's scroll on over here and find out |
| 728 | 01:01:59 --> 01:02:00 | that mystery is, |
| 729 | 01:02:02 --> 01:02:07 | I know you love it, don't you? I can't wait to trade this way. I know. What do |
| 730 | 01:02:07 --> 01:02:12 | you think this is? It looks random, doesn't it? All this is, is the same |
| 731 | 01:02:12 --> 01:02:15 | thing? It's the consequent encroachment of that discount width. But now I'm |
| 732 | 01:02:15 --> 01:02:24 | going to treat that as a target. So now what is that price? Nine, 30.50 so I |
| 733 | 01:02:24 --> 01:02:31 | need that price or lower, and there's my exit, right? There. Slipped a little |
| 734 | 01:02:31 --> 01:02:40 | bit. 19,009 30.75 so it's not bad. It's pretty close, right? Close enough for |
| 735 | 01:02:40 --> 01:02:44 | government work, right? But all this drop here, I don't need that. You don't |
| 736 | 01:02:44 --> 01:02:48 | need that either. And then what does it do? It starts to rally right back up. So |
| 737 | 01:02:50 --> 01:02:55 | all these things drawing already back up into yesterday's first presented, |
| 738 | 01:02:55 --> 01:03:05 | Fairbank drops, rallies back up with it working. Yesterday's fair value gap, but |
| 739 | 01:03:05 --> 01:03:15 | now late in the day, we're returning to first fair value gap. That's true value |
| 740 | 01:03:16 --> 01:03:22 | on the daily range. Your first presented fair value gap between 930 and 10 |
| 741 | 01:03:22 --> 01:03:27 | o'clock. You need to know what that is, because the algorithm is going to refer |
| 742 | 01:03:27 --> 01:03:33 | back to it. Unless it's a trending day, it's going to refer back to it. I have |
| 743 | 01:03:33 --> 01:03:37 | done so many trades without pointing this to you, but if you go back and look |
| 744 | 01:03:37 --> 01:03:41 | at them, you're going to see that this is a lot of what I'm doing. And again, |
| 745 | 01:03:41 --> 01:03:44 | because I never intended to teach it to you. And you can be mad at me and say, |
| 746 | 01:03:44 --> 01:03:46 | I'm gonna ask all your dick you should have. You should have taught this |
| 747 | 01:03:46 --> 01:03:51 | sooner. Just be thankful that I am. Just be appreciative that my son is. It's |
| 748 | 01:03:51 --> 01:03:54 | encouraging me to do this, because none of you could have encouraged me enough |
| 749 | 01:03:54 --> 01:03:58 | to do it. I never wanted to do it, but he just said, Look, just let him see it, |
| 750 | 01:03:59 --> 01:04:03 | so you're seeing it. So anyway, that's the business on that. Now, real quick, |
| 751 | 01:04:03 --> 01:04:15 | let's get in through the the the US 100 the the gap here, 414, previous day and |
| 752 | 01:04:15 --> 01:04:27 | 930 opening price, we don't have the Is it us 100 I'm just going to use this |
| 753 | 01:04:27 --> 01:04:30 | one. I'm not saying that that's a good broker. I'm not saying that you should |
| 754 | 01:04:30 --> 01:04:33 | trade through them. I'm just saying that this is something that you need to |
| 755 | 01:04:33 --> 01:04:37 | determine on your own. And if you do what I'm showing you here, you should be |
| 756 | 01:04:37 --> 01:04:42 | able to track price as close as you can without using the actual futures market. |
| 757 | 01:04:43 --> 01:04:47 | So if we pull that up like this, you can already see that I have the opening |
| 758 | 01:04:47 --> 01:04:48 | price at 930 you. |
| 759 | 01:05:06 --> 01:05:10 | There's the opening price at 930 and this settlement price here is |
| 760 | 01:05:10 --> 01:05:21 | yesterday's same 414 closing. So when we get to the candlestick at 414 yesterday. |
| 761 | 01:05:27 --> 01:05:32 | That's this candlestick right there at 414 the closing price. So while we don't |
| 762 | 01:05:32 --> 01:05:40 | have the break in trading between 415 to six o'clock restart, and we don't have |
| 763 | 01:05:40 --> 01:05:46 | this, the break from 415 yesterday to 930 in the morning in the CFD market, |
| 764 | 01:05:46 --> 01:05:51 | which is what this is. It is not necessary. All you have to do is know |
| 765 | 01:05:51 --> 01:05:57 | the same price points and you'll have the same information here. Now the gap, |
| 766 | 01:05:57 --> 01:06:04 | the first gap for today. There is a volume imbalance here, and there's a |
| 767 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:10 | volume imbalance here. Two schools of thought here, if you are using a CFD, |
| 768 | 01:06:10 --> 01:06:14 | always include your volume imbalances. Always don't do what I did today, |
| 769 | 01:06:14 --> 01:06:18 | because that's this experience. Always include them. That's why I teach if you |
| 770 | 01:06:18 --> 01:06:24 | see a fair value gap, always include the volume of balance because of CFD and |
| 771 | 01:06:24 --> 01:06:29 | futures, I'm sorry, forex pairs, your brokers are going to screw you, and |
| 772 | 01:06:29 --> 01:06:32 | that's just the truth, and you're going to have different pricing. So if you |
| 773 | 01:06:32 --> 01:06:35 | don't include the volume imbalances, you're not going to have a true |
| 774 | 01:06:35 --> 01:06:40 | depiction of what you should be focusing on. So you can see here with the volume |
| 775 | 01:06:40 --> 01:06:43 | imbalance is included, and that means that this candle is closed, the body's |
| 776 | 01:06:43 --> 01:06:48 | top to the next candle is open. That little separation that's the volume |
| 777 | 01:06:48 --> 01:06:52 | imbalance, just like this separation between this candle sticks close or the |
| 778 | 01:06:52 --> 01:06:56 | high part of the body, not the wick, and then the opening of this candlestick, |
| 779 | 01:06:56 --> 01:07:01 | there's a small look at it like this. See that separation between the two |
| 780 | 01:07:01 --> 01:07:05 | bodies there and the separation right here. That's my volume imbalance. That's |
| 781 | 01:07:05 --> 01:07:11 | not in any other books. Okay, that's, that's you seeing what the what the |
| 782 | 01:07:11 --> 01:07:22 | algorithm will refer back to market here at 950 that's the macro time, 951, start |
| 783 | 01:07:22 --> 01:07:29 | going lower, targeting, sell side, targeting, relative equal lows over |
| 784 | 01:07:29 --> 01:07:35 | here. Same stuff happened over here. Ain't this a wick that I just talked |
| 785 | 01:07:35 --> 01:07:42 | about on the futures contract. Midpoint of that wick get short there, and it |
| 786 | 01:07:42 --> 01:07:49 | drops. Everything's the same. Okay, so if you're trading with CFDs, all you |
| 787 | 01:07:49 --> 01:07:54 | have to do is use the times, because that's the most important thing, the |
| 788 | 01:07:54 --> 01:07:59 | times I'm telling you at specific price points, because it's first the time, and |
| 789 | 01:07:59 --> 01:08:03 | then what price around that time if you do the same things I'm showing you here |
| 790 | 01:08:03 --> 01:08:07 | within the CFD markets. And the same thing is for us 30 if you want to trade |
| 791 | 01:08:07 --> 01:08:12 | the Dow, if you want to trade the US, 500 that's the equivalent to the s, p |
| 792 | 01:08:12 --> 01:08:16 | market, just in a CFD format. The same thing. It's the same stuff, folks, |
| 793 | 01:08:16 --> 01:08:20 | you're just not seeing the same price, because clearly they're not going to |
| 794 | 01:08:21 --> 01:08:24 | agree. But that's all I wanted to show you today, because my battery is warning |
| 795 | 01:08:24 --> 01:08:30 | me that I'm getting ready to see my laptop shut down, and I used that as my |
| 796 | 01:08:30 --> 01:08:33 | timer, so I was going to go as long as I could. And we came all the way back up |
| 797 | 01:08:34 --> 01:08:41 | to here and cleared out the high of the day. So hopefully you found this in my |
| 798 | 01:08:41 --> 01:08:45 | insightful hopefully you can calm down a little bit. If you're a CFD trader and |
| 799 | 01:08:45 --> 01:08:49 | you're still in the Forex world, you can do everything that I'm doing here with |
| 800 | 01:08:49 --> 01:08:54 | reading price in that CFD you just need to know how to navigate your chart. |
| 801 | 01:08:54 --> 01:08:59 | That's all and it's all we showed here today, and we will be back at it again |
| 802 | 01:08:59 --> 01:09:03 | next week, and I'm going to have homework for you every single night, so |
| 803 | 01:09:03 --> 01:09:07 | it's going to feel like university all over again. Enjoy your weekend. I'm |
| 804 | 01:09:08 --> 01:09:12 | going to have a Twitter space tomorrow. It'll probably be a real short one, and |
| 805 | 01:09:12 --> 01:09:15 | just bring some road snacks and enjoy your weekend, and I'll talk to you |
| 806 | 01:09:15 --> 01:09:19 | tomorrow. Lord willing. |