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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-09-08 11:48
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2 |1 |00:00:05 ~-~-> 00:00:09 |ICT: All right, folks, this is the very first lecture on my son Caleb's YouTube
3 |2 |00:00:09 ~-~-> 00:00:14 |channel. Just to give you a heads up, none of the videos on this channel will
4 |3 |00:00:14 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |be long. I'll be aiming for around 10 to 15 minutes, at max, the daily reviews
5 |4 |00:00:21 ~-~-> 00:00:27 |that will begin tomorrow, they will be Monday through Friday. They will be
6 |5 |00:00:28 ~-~-> 00:00:34 |basically showing you what each time frames chart should look like, and my
7 |6 |00:00:34 ~-~-> 00:00:38 |rendition of what I think would be reasonable for annotations to kind of
8 |7 |00:00:38 ~-~-> 00:00:42 |like give him an idea of what he should be observing and how to record that
9 |8 |00:00:42 ~-~-> 00:00:48 |stuff in his charts. So it kind of gives him a framework, and all of you as a
10 |9 |00:00:48 ~-~-> 00:00:54 |framework as well. You're encouraged to use them as models. But everything you
11 |10 |00:00:54 ~-~-> 00:00:59 |see in my charts, when I reveal them, they should be used to check yourself
12 |11 |00:00:59 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |towards you go through the chart, you'll see things that are salient to you based
13 |12 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:08 |on your present understanding, and you'll learn more by repetition seeing
14 |13 |00:01:08 ~-~-> 00:01:12 |what I'm revealing in price action, okay? So it'll be rather quick. It's not
15 |14 |00:01:12 ~-~-> 00:01:16 |gonna be a lot of Jawbone over top of it. These videos on this channel are
16 |15 |00:01:16 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |supposed to be concise, right to the point that way he can go and do the
17 |16 |00:01:20 ~-~-> 00:01:25 |homework with it, okay, or check himself, all right. So I gave a homework
18 |17 |00:01:25 ~-~-> 00:01:35 |assignment on my community post on my channel, and I outlined basically what
19 |18 |00:01:35 ~-~-> 00:01:39 |you're seeing here, a line chart. Now, obviously I didn't draw this out for the
20 |19 |00:01:39 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |sake of brevity. I used trading view to accomplish this. But imagine you're in a
21 |20 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:50 |cafe, and you're meeting a friend, a long term friend that you haven't seen
22 |21 |00:01:50 ~-~-> 00:01:54 |in a while, and they asked you what you're doing. And you tell them, I'm
23 |22 |00:01:54 ~-~-> 00:01:58 |speculator, I'm trading. Oh, yeah, what do you do? How do you do that? And the
24 |23 |00:01:58 ~-~-> 00:02:02 |conversation goes around technicals, but you don't have your laptop with you. You
25 |24 |00:02:02 ~-~-> 00:02:06 |don't think to open up your smartphone. You just want to scribble something on a
26 |25 |00:02:06 ~-~-> 00:02:10 |napkin, you know, to share an idea conceptually what it is you try to do.
27 |26 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:17 |Now, if you couldn't do this because you don't have a model, it's okay. But this
28 |27 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:23 |is conceptually what I'm doing for Caleb, so he's going to learn this
29 |28 |00:02:23 ~-~-> 00:02:27 |model. Now, there's going to be a few different variants to this model, but
30 |29 |00:02:27 ~-~-> 00:02:35 |this is the simplest one, and I'm going to go real quick. The market should
31 |30 |00:02:35 ~-~-> 00:02:42 |create a pool of liquidity by making a high and trading lower, making a low
32 |31 |00:02:43 ~-~-> 00:02:48 |inform liquidity below it, so above Oh, high is buy side, below, and on low is
33 |32 |00:02:48 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |sell side. We want to see a run above it when we're bullish, take that buy side
34 |33 |00:02:56 ~-~-> 00:03:01 |in first. So now traders that would be looking to go long on a breakout they
35 |34 |00:03:01 ~-~-> 00:03:08 |are in their stop loss would naturally go down here, or something inside this
36 |35 |00:03:08 ~-~-> 00:03:12 |range, either way the market trades that that low takes out the sell side. So
37 |36 |00:03:12 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |anyone that's long here, they get stopped out. Then the real move comes at
38 |37 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:22 |a time of day. That's key. So I taught on my YouTube channel, and it's part of
39 |38 |00:03:22 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |my son's repertoire, between seven o'clock in the morning, Eastern Standard
40 |39 |00:03:27 ~-~-> 00:03:31 |Time to 11 o'clock in the morning, that's his working hours. Then I gave
41 |40 |00:03:31 ~-~-> 00:03:36 |you seven o'clock, eight o'clock and nine o'clock, using those intervals, the
42 |41 |00:03:36 ~-~-> 00:03:39 |first 30 minutes of each one of those hours. He's looking for this type of
43 |42 |00:03:39 ~-~-> 00:03:46 |framework. So if we get a rally up and it drops back down into a fair value gap
44 |43 |00:03:46 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |at a time, that's key, as I just mentioned here and in previous lectures
45 |44 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |that I've done in the 2024 mentorship, this would be where he would look to go
46 |45 |00:03:56 ~-~-> 00:04:02 |long that means he's trying to buy. He would use an entry price at the high the
47 |46 |00:04:02 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |fair value gap plus one tick his stop loss would be at this low or one tick
48 |47 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:23 |below it, the Stop Loss moves to cover the costs that's commission and any risk
49 |48 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:33 |Once it moves from this high to the first partial, the first partial and the
50 |49 |00:04:33 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |target, I'll outline that in a moment. But for now, this is where you would
51 |50 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |think to move the stop loss once price trades to it there, you may get stopped
52 |51 |00:04:44 ~-~-> 00:04:48 |out. Caleb, it's okay. You're trying to protect yourself. The first thing you're
53 |52 |00:04:48 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |trying to use is the shield, not the sword, partially taken, I guess, to a
54 |53 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:03 |tip, not. Extension. In this case here, partial number one would be a swing
55 |54 |00:05:03 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |projection coupled with a new de opening gap and or new weak opening gap lowest
56 |55 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:13 |level. So whichever is the lowest in close proximity to that Fibonacci
57 |56 |00:05:13 ~-~-> 00:05:18 |extension, that's what you're going to be using for your first partial. And
58 |57 |00:05:18 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |your Terminus would be, again, some Fibonacci extension that overlaps with a
59 |58 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:27 |new day opening gap and or new week opening gap. Lowest level, that means
60 |59 |00:05:27 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |it's low.
61 |60 |00:05:36 ~-~-> 00:05:42 |All right, so this is what it looks like in a candlestick formation. So in actual
62 |61 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:48 |price, you'd see the high here, a low here, buy stops are triggered. Longs are
63 |62 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |triggered in if they're looking to break into a new breakout run, their stop loss
64 |63 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:05:59 |would be in any one of these lows here. And as much as that low down here, we
65 |64 |00:05:59 ~-~-> 00:06:02 |would like to see price go down there. It does that. So we had a buy, stop
66 |65 |00:06:02 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |raid, sell. Stop raid. Buyers are tripped in. Buyers are stopped out.
67 |66 |00:06:11 ~-~-> 00:06:15 |Short. Sellers are tripped in. Naturally their stop would be here, but the move
68 |67 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |is going to be going higher when we're bullish. So that just takes care of
69 |68 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |them. Handily. Anyway, at 930 we have the opening bell. Rallies up, comes back
70 |69 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:34 |down, creates a fair value gap. Rallies takes it into half of the move between
71 |70 |00:06:35 ~-~-> 00:06:41 |this high. Here in the first partial, I have the Fibonacci extensions this low
72 |71 |00:06:42 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |to that high. Negative 0.5 gives us this level. It just so happens that's very
73 |72 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |close to the August 27 2024 new day opening gap low. So you would use that
74 |73 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:04 |as your first partial Caleb, once it gets halfway between the high and your
75 |74 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:10 |first partial, your stop loss would roll to cover costs. Here's where you can see
76 |75 |00:07:10 ~-~-> 00:07:16 |their cell stop will be at that candle slow minus one tick the inefficiency
77 |76 |00:07:16 ~-~-> 00:07:26 |candle below that low is where your long initial Sell Stop goes by limit. It's
78 |77 |00:07:26 ~-~-> 00:07:33 |one tick above the fair value gap high. So as it drops down, you'll have a
79 |78 |00:07:33 ~-~-> 00:07:37 |little bit of drawdown. Your stop loss is here. You may get stopped out. It's
80 |79 |00:07:37 ~-~-> 00:07:41 |fine. If you do, you stop for the day. You go in the next day looking for the
81 |80 |00:07:41 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |same type of setup you're going to reverse everything that's shown here
82 |81 |00:07:44 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |when you're bearish.
83 |82 |00:07:51 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |As price runs up into half of the range between the high in the first partial
84 |83 |00:08:01 ~-~-> 00:08:07 |sales stop rolls from here above your entry that would cover the cost and
85 |84 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:11 |remove any risk. So if it comes back down and stops you out, that's fine.
86 |85 |00:08:12 ~-~-> 00:08:18 |Once partials are taken, you leave the stop. You don't move it again and wait
87 |86 |00:08:18 ~-~-> 00:08:25 |for your Terminus. Terminus would be a swing projection that's coupled with,
88 |87 |00:08:25 ~-~-> 00:08:30 |again, New Day opening gap and or new week opening gap. So that would be here,
89 |88 |00:08:31 ~-~-> 00:08:34 |even though a fib might be up here, you're going to take the lowest hanging
90 |89 |00:08:34 ~-~-> 00:08:38 |fruit objective so soon as it hits the new day opening gap or new week opening
91 |90 |00:08:38 ~-~-> 00:08:44 |gap, that's closest to the FIB you're not trying to be perfect, you're just
92 |91 |00:08:44 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |shining slide into home, and then hopefully the momentum will carry into
93 |92 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |it, and you may get a stellar exit. So sometimes the fibs don't actually get
94 |93 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:57 |traded to, and again, sometimes the higher order of the new week opening gap
95 |94 |00:08:57 ~-~-> 00:09:00 |or New Day opening gaps don't get traded to. Either you and
96 |95 |00:09:05 ~-~-> 00:09:09 |here's what it looks like with the sell stock rolled higher and again, the
97 |96 |00:09:09 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |opening range is 930 to 10 o'clock. And that would be just one variant. It could
98 |97 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:18 |be eight to 830 where it forms, or it could be seven to 730 where it forms, or
99 |98 |00:09:18 ~-~-> 00:09:24 |any time between seven o'clock and 930 but you close your charts at 11 o'clock
100 |99 |00:09:24 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |and you're done if there's no trade to stop. This is the model. This is the
101 |100 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:34 |basic framework for it, and we'll build on this concept as we go each day and
102 |101 |00:09:34 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |each week. Hope you found insightful till we talk to you next time. Be safe.
103 |102 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |You.