ICT YT - 2024-09-02 - Calubs Model - Conceptually - Variant 1

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-09-08 11:48
1 00:00:05 --> 00:00:09 ICT: All right, folks, this is the very first lecture on my son Caleb's YouTube
2 00:00:09 --> 00:00:14 channel. Just to give you a heads up, none of the videos on this channel will
3 00:00:14 --> 00:00:21 be long. I'll be aiming for around 10 to 15 minutes, at max, the daily reviews
4 00:00:21 --> 00:00:27 that will begin tomorrow, they will be Monday through Friday. They will be
5 00:00:28 --> 00:00:34 basically showing you what each time frames chart should look like, and my
6 00:00:34 --> 00:00:38 rendition of what I think would be reasonable for annotations to kind of
7 00:00:38 --> 00:00:42 like give him an idea of what he should be observing and how to record that
8 00:00:42 --> 00:00:48 stuff in his charts. So it kind of gives him a framework, and all of you as a
9 00:00:48 --> 00:00:54 framework as well. You're encouraged to use them as models. But everything you
10 00:00:54 --> 00:00:59 see in my charts, when I reveal them, they should be used to check yourself
11 00:00:59 --> 00:01:05 towards you go through the chart, you'll see things that are salient to you based
12 00:01:05 --> 00:01:08 on your present understanding, and you'll learn more by repetition seeing
13 00:01:08 --> 00:01:12 what I'm revealing in price action, okay? So it'll be rather quick. It's not
14 00:01:12 --> 00:01:16 gonna be a lot of Jawbone over top of it. These videos on this channel are
15 00:01:16 --> 00:01:20 supposed to be concise, right to the point that way he can go and do the
16 00:01:20 --> 00:01:25 homework with it, okay, or check himself, all right. So I gave a homework
17 00:01:25 --> 00:01:35 assignment on my community post on my channel, and I outlined basically what
18 00:01:35 --> 00:01:39 you're seeing here, a line chart. Now, obviously I didn't draw this out for the
19 00:01:39 --> 00:01:46 sake of brevity. I used trading view to accomplish this. But imagine you're in a
20 00:01:46 --> 00:01:50 cafe, and you're meeting a friend, a long term friend that you haven't seen
21 00:01:50 --> 00:01:54 in a while, and they asked you what you're doing. And you tell them, I'm
22 00:01:54 --> 00:01:58 speculator, I'm trading. Oh, yeah, what do you do? How do you do that? And the
23 00:01:58 --> 00:02:02 conversation goes around technicals, but you don't have your laptop with you. You
24 00:02:02 --> 00:02:06 don't think to open up your smartphone. You just want to scribble something on a
25 00:02:06 --> 00:02:10 napkin, you know, to share an idea conceptually what it is you try to do.
26 00:02:12 --> 00:02:17 Now, if you couldn't do this because you don't have a model, it's okay. But this
27 00:02:17 --> 00:02:23 is conceptually what I'm doing for Caleb, so he's going to learn this
28 00:02:23 --> 00:02:27 model. Now, there's going to be a few different variants to this model, but
29 00:02:27 --> 00:02:35 this is the simplest one, and I'm going to go real quick. The market should
30 00:02:35 --> 00:02:42 create a pool of liquidity by making a high and trading lower, making a low
31 00:02:43 --> 00:02:48 inform liquidity below it, so above Oh, high is buy side, below, and on low is
32 00:02:48 --> 00:02:56 sell side. We want to see a run above it when we're bullish, take that buy side
33 00:02:56 --> 00:03:01 in first. So now traders that would be looking to go long on a breakout they
34 00:03:01 --> 00:03:08 are in their stop loss would naturally go down here, or something inside this
35 00:03:08 --> 00:03:12 range, either way the market trades that that low takes out the sell side. So
36 00:03:12 --> 00:03:17 anyone that's long here, they get stopped out. Then the real move comes at
37 00:03:17 --> 00:03:22 a time of day. That's key. So I taught on my YouTube channel, and it's part of
38 00:03:22 --> 00:03:26 my son's repertoire, between seven o'clock in the morning, Eastern Standard
39 00:03:27 --> 00:03:31 Time to 11 o'clock in the morning, that's his working hours. Then I gave
40 00:03:31 --> 00:03:36 you seven o'clock, eight o'clock and nine o'clock, using those intervals, the
41 00:03:36 --> 00:03:39 first 30 minutes of each one of those hours. He's looking for this type of
42 00:03:39 --> 00:03:46 framework. So if we get a rally up and it drops back down into a fair value gap
43 00:03:46 --> 00:03:51 at a time, that's key, as I just mentioned here and in previous lectures
44 00:03:51 --> 00:03:56 that I've done in the 2024 mentorship, this would be where he would look to go
45 00:03:56 --> 00:04:02 long that means he's trying to buy. He would use an entry price at the high the
46 00:04:02 --> 00:04:13 fair value gap plus one tick his stop loss would be at this low or one tick
47 00:04:13 --> 00:04:23 below it, the Stop Loss moves to cover the costs that's commission and any risk
48 00:04:24 --> 00:04:33 Once it moves from this high to the first partial, the first partial and the
49 00:04:33 --> 00:04:37 target, I'll outline that in a moment. But for now, this is where you would
50 00:04:37 --> 00:04:44 think to move the stop loss once price trades to it there, you may get stopped
51 00:04:44 --> 00:04:48 out. Caleb, it's okay. You're trying to protect yourself. The first thing you're
52 00:04:48 --> 00:04:59 trying to use is the shield, not the sword, partially taken, I guess, to a
53 00:04:59 --> 00:05:03 tip, not. Extension. In this case here, partial number one would be a swing
54 00:05:03 --> 00:05:08 projection coupled with a new de opening gap and or new weak opening gap lowest
55 00:05:08 --> 00:05:13 level. So whichever is the lowest in close proximity to that Fibonacci
56 00:05:13 --> 00:05:18 extension, that's what you're going to be using for your first partial. And
57 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 your Terminus would be, again, some Fibonacci extension that overlaps with a
58 00:05:23 --> 00:05:27 new day opening gap and or new week opening gap. Lowest level, that means
59 00:05:27 --> 00:05:28 it's low.
60 00:05:36 --> 00:05:42 All right, so this is what it looks like in a candlestick formation. So in actual
61 00:05:42 --> 00:05:48 price, you'd see the high here, a low here, buy stops are triggered. Longs are
62 00:05:48 --> 00:05:55 triggered in if they're looking to break into a new breakout run, their stop loss
63 00:05:55 --> 00:05:59 would be in any one of these lows here. And as much as that low down here, we
64 00:05:59 --> 00:06:02 would like to see price go down there. It does that. So we had a buy, stop
65 00:06:02 --> 00:06:10 raid, sell. Stop raid. Buyers are tripped in. Buyers are stopped out.
66 00:06:11 --> 00:06:15 Short. Sellers are tripped in. Naturally their stop would be here, but the move
67 00:06:15 --> 00:06:18 is going to be going higher when we're bullish. So that just takes care of
68 00:06:18 --> 00:06:26 them. Handily. Anyway, at 930 we have the opening bell. Rallies up, comes back
69 00:06:26 --> 00:06:34 down, creates a fair value gap. Rallies takes it into half of the move between
70 00:06:35 --> 00:06:41 this high. Here in the first partial, I have the Fibonacci extensions this low
71 00:06:42 --> 00:06:49 to that high. Negative 0.5 gives us this level. It just so happens that's very
72 00:06:49 --> 00:06:57 close to the August 27 2024 new day opening gap low. So you would use that
73 00:06:57 --> 00:07:04 as your first partial Caleb, once it gets halfway between the high and your
74 00:07:04 --> 00:07:10 first partial, your stop loss would roll to cover costs. Here's where you can see
75 00:07:10 --> 00:07:16 their cell stop will be at that candle slow minus one tick the inefficiency
76 00:07:16 --> 00:07:26 candle below that low is where your long initial Sell Stop goes by limit. It's
77 00:07:26 --> 00:07:33 one tick above the fair value gap high. So as it drops down, you'll have a
78 00:07:33 --> 00:07:37 little bit of drawdown. Your stop loss is here. You may get stopped out. It's
79 00:07:37 --> 00:07:41 fine. If you do, you stop for the day. You go in the next day looking for the
80 00:07:41 --> 00:07:44 same type of setup you're going to reverse everything that's shown here
81 00:07:44 --> 00:07:44 when you're bearish.
82 00:07:51 --> 00:07:58 As price runs up into half of the range between the high in the first partial
83 00:08:01 --> 00:08:07 sales stop rolls from here above your entry that would cover the cost and
84 00:08:07 --> 00:08:11 remove any risk. So if it comes back down and stops you out, that's fine.
85 00:08:12 --> 00:08:18 Once partials are taken, you leave the stop. You don't move it again and wait
86 00:08:18 --> 00:08:25 for your Terminus. Terminus would be a swing projection that's coupled with,
87 00:08:25 --> 00:08:30 again, New Day opening gap and or new week opening gap. So that would be here,
88 00:08:31 --> 00:08:34 even though a fib might be up here, you're going to take the lowest hanging
89 00:08:34 --> 00:08:38 fruit objective so soon as it hits the new day opening gap or new week opening
90 00:08:38 --> 00:08:44 gap, that's closest to the FIB you're not trying to be perfect, you're just
91 00:08:44 --> 00:08:48 shining slide into home, and then hopefully the momentum will carry into
92 00:08:48 --> 00:08:52 it, and you may get a stellar exit. So sometimes the fibs don't actually get
93 00:08:52 --> 00:08:57 traded to, and again, sometimes the higher order of the new week opening gap
94 00:08:57 --> 00:09:00 or New Day opening gaps don't get traded to. Either you and
95 00:09:05 --> 00:09:09 here's what it looks like with the sell stock rolled higher and again, the
96 00:09:09 --> 00:09:14 opening range is 930 to 10 o'clock. And that would be just one variant. It could
97 00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 be eight to 830 where it forms, or it could be seven to 730 where it forms, or
98 00:09:18 --> 00:09:24 any time between seven o'clock and 930 but you close your charts at 11 o'clock
99 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 and you're done if there's no trade to stop. This is the model. This is the
100 00:09:29 --> 00:09:34 basic framework for it, and we'll build on this concept as we go each day and
101 00:09:34 --> 00:09:38 each week. Hope you found insightful till we talk to you next time. Be safe.
102 00:09:38 --> 00:09:38 You.