1 | 00:01:52 --> 00:01:54 | ICT: Uh huh, a lovely lady lumps |
2 | 00:01:55 --> 00:02:00 | yeah. What's up? Good morning. Good morning. It's a good morning. It is a |
3 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:06 | good morning. Miss OBS was sparring with me again before I can get the stream |
4 | 00:02:06 --> 00:02:11 | started. But that's okay. It's a little bit faster resolution for it this |
5 | 00:02:11 --> 00:02:22 | morning. Hope you're doing well. It's obviously we are in the Thursday trading |
6 | 00:02:22 --> 00:02:28 | session for indices. Our focus has been on the NASDAQ. As you can see on the |
7 | 00:02:28 --> 00:02:32 | right hand side, that is a one minute chart reacting off of some random level |
8 | 00:02:35 --> 00:02:39 | for the new week. I'm sorry, the new day opening gap. I |
9 | 00:02:46 --> 00:02:53 | and upper left hand corner, we have the 15 minute time frame and then the five |
10 | 00:02:53 --> 00:03:05 | minute time frame in the lower left. So we will be watching how we open. There's |
11 | 00:03:05 --> 00:03:12 | going to be a rather large gap, so we'll be annotating that real quick here. This |
12 | 00:03:12 --> 00:03:17 | is where we stop trading for regular trading session hours again, then lower |
13 | 00:03:17 --> 00:03:23 | right hand corner. That's what we're toggling and then we're gonna |
14 | 00:03:42 --> 00:03:56 | and we will use this. And then where we open up at 930 we will annotate that. So |
15 | 00:03:56 --> 00:04:03 | right now it's trading at 348 so if I grab that highlight it, hold down, |
16 | 00:04:03 --> 00:04:08 | control, drag away. And put it real close to that market price that we're at |
17 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:12 | right now. When I go back to electronic trading hours, it'll be there for me to |
18 | 00:04:13 --> 00:04:28 | drop like that, and then I'll just change that now this and this will be |
19 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:35 | set to whatever the first opening price is at 930 in about 55 seconds or less. |
20 | 00:04:37 --> 00:04:44 | So we have a rather large premium opening. This is a lot of lot of |
21 | 00:04:44 --> 00:04:49 | movement from where we settled on the day session yesterday versus where we're |
22 | 00:04:49 --> 00:04:54 | opening up. It doesn't mean always there's a complete return back to that, |
23 | 00:04:54 --> 00:04:58 | that level down here, but we will look for indications that it will try to do |
24 | 00:04:58 --> 00:05:03 | that. And right away, my. Interest is, I'd like to see this traded too. It need |
25 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:07 | not do anything in here. We're not trying to pick the top as I was talking |
26 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:14 | about yesterday. We want to see how the opening range. Opening range is the |
27 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:18 | first 30 minutes from 930 to 10am New York local time. If your time when |
28 | 00:05:18 --> 00:05:22 | you're trading view platform is not set to New York. You need to set it to that. |
29 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:27 | That way, everything that you're learning in this YouTube channel is |
30 | 00:05:27 --> 00:05:37 | germane. Here we are. So the opening price is 352 so I got to do is change it |
31 | 00:05:37 --> 00:05:44 | to 352 all better, baby, right there. So now what what we're doing? We're just |
32 | 00:05:44 --> 00:05:56 | going to watch and see. Does it have a run above the high here? That's where |
33 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:07 | our buy side liquidity is left. |
34 | 00:06:15 --> 00:06:22 | Okay, so we're just going to sit and relax. I have an appointment at 1045 |
35 | 00:06:23 --> 00:06:29 | that I have to make. So we'll be going to around 1030 probably a few minutes |
36 | 00:06:29 --> 00:06:36 | before 1030 so I'll sit with you through the the first 30 minutes after 10 so |
37 | 00:06:36 --> 00:06:40 | hopefully we'll see some kind of a silver bullet I can walk with walk you |
38 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:40 | through. |
39 | 00:07:00 --> 00:07:03 | And we have small little gap that we traded into here. We'll see if that |
40 | 00:07:03 --> 00:07:06 | provides a means of engaging liquidity there. I'm |
41 | 00:07:32 --> 00:07:40 | there you go. So that's one of those really easy bread and butter setups. We |
42 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:46 | can see that there's a pool of liquidity they're gonna they're gonna feed that's |
43 | 00:07:46 --> 00:07:46 | Bailey. |
44 | 00:07:51 --> 00:07:55 | Hang on one second. Let me text my wife and tell her to kennel you. |
45 | 00:08:35 --> 00:08:45 | All right, so we had our little initial run after big pop at 830, completely |
46 | 00:08:45 --> 00:08:49 | random. Who could expect something like that to occur? We have this volume |
47 | 00:08:49 --> 00:08:53 | imbalance between these two bodies here. We treat it back up into that trading |
48 | 00:08:53 --> 00:09:05 | there, and we have relative equal lows from here to here study that. So the |
49 | 00:09:05 --> 00:09:13 | relative equal highs here, we saw it run above that, that small little gap right |
50 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:20 | there, small little one right there. Oh, I laid it for you. I just, can just |
51 | 00:09:20 --> 00:09:27 | going to maximize this chart. We'll work with this one. |
52 | 00:09:37 --> 00:09:41 | Keep it neutral. I don't want to influence you with the color, but I |
53 | 00:09:41 --> 00:09:50 | don't need that following. So as we traded on to this here, I took your |
54 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:54 | attention there after, obviously it was sitting like right in here, but that |
55 | 00:09:54 --> 00:10:01 | right there is still a point of entry, because you have a. Low, high, low or |
56 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:07 | low, you're in the breaker that could have been used as a more or less the |
57 | 00:10:07 --> 00:10:10 | fair value gap. Does it respond off of it? Yes, you don't need the candle to |
58 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:16 | close. And then the liquidity was here. So looking at from this area here, |
59 | 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 | rallying up to take that liquidity, that's your first |
60 | 00:10:28 --> 00:10:34 | screenshot you want to take and annotate that Caleb and have how much time it |
61 | 00:10:34 --> 00:10:39 | took to run? Obviously, it doesn't take much. It's like one minute. How much |
62 | 00:10:39 --> 00:10:44 | heat was on that fair value gap zero, and then there's immediate run to |
63 | 00:10:44 --> 00:10:50 | liquidity. So now, because we've had this run here, and we've had the big run |
64 | 00:10:50 --> 00:10:56 | up over the last few actually, like a week and a half, now, it's been going |
65 | 00:10:56 --> 00:11:05 | higher. We had an 830 impulsive price run, creating the high here we opened |
66 | 00:11:08 --> 00:11:17 | 930 brand of buy side here, what's this? What is this? Right here? |
67 | 00:11:22 --> 00:11:29 | I a premium wick. We're studying the buy side in here. We want to see, does it |
68 | 00:11:29 --> 00:11:34 | want to come back? Because think about everybody that's long they're going to |
69 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:38 | trail their stop losses. Where are they going to jam them up to right below |
70 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:44 | here. So anyone that wanted to break out and go long, they're going to do it on a |
71 | 00:11:44 --> 00:11:50 | break out above here. So they're in now. They already have people on the board, |
72 | 00:11:50 --> 00:11:57 | net long and where are they going to put their stop loss, right below here, all |
73 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:04 | under here. And the carryover from yesterday and this morning at 830 when |
74 | 00:12:04 --> 00:12:12 | we had the run up here off of today's new day, opening, gap rally, |
75 | 00:12:12 --> 00:12:18 | institutional order, flow entry drill, Breakaway gap. This is where a bull flag |
76 | 00:12:18 --> 00:12:24 | does work and then runs up this gap right here, and the liquidity, my focus |
77 | 00:12:24 --> 00:12:28 | is here. I'm not trying to pick the top, but what I'm looking for is I want to |
78 | 00:12:28 --> 00:12:35 | see, can we break below this gap that's in yellow? Okay, that's where my focus |
79 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:41 | is. My eye is there because I want to see, do we get below it? Come back up |
80 | 00:12:41 --> 00:12:45 | and treat it as an inversion fair value gap that sends us into the liquidity |
81 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:52 | here and into this gap right there. So for the morning session, it's too rich, |
82 | 00:12:52 --> 00:12:57 | too expensive right now to want to buy it. We have a gap higher opening. We've |
83 | 00:12:57 --> 00:13:02 | had an initial run to buy side. I'm not chasing that. So we're back in the same |
84 | 00:13:02 --> 00:13:08 | criteria that we were on. Was it Tuesday? So I will not buy premium like |
85 | 00:13:08 --> 00:13:13 | this. This is, this is too rich, too expensive. And again, same thing. If it |
86 | 00:13:13 --> 00:13:17 | wants to run, it'll run without me, and I'll wait later on, in the morning, 10 |
87 | 00:13:17 --> 00:13:20 | o'clock, I'll do something with the silver bullet there. It's always there. |
88 | 00:13:21 --> 00:13:26 | It's never, it's never, not in the charts. Okay, so we have one more bump |
89 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:37 | above the high. And let me draw out the this is where my interest is for the |
90 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:38 | morning session. Thus far, I'm |
91 | 00:13:47 --> 00:13:54 | and I don't know why I did that should be this color. There you go. I |
92 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:13 | So what we have here is we have low, high, low breaker. Breakers inside of |
93 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:17 | the new day opening gap. That's this level here, in that level, here we |
94 | 00:14:17 --> 00:14:27 | consolidate, we drop down 830 boom takes off, leaves a gap here, relative equal |
95 | 00:14:27 --> 00:14:34 | lows here, the highs have been taken. So what we're watching is the market being |
96 | 00:14:34 --> 00:14:38 | made jagged on the upside after a large gap opening again. You can see that |
97 | 00:14:38 --> 00:14:43 | here. See that big gap between where we settled yesterday and where we are here. |
98 | 00:14:44 --> 00:14:50 | So that's why my interest is at that fair value gap and the that low, because |
99 | 00:14:50 --> 00:14:54 | it's only been a consolidation run to the liquidity come back of a small, |
100 | 00:14:54 --> 00:14:59 | little retracement, and then rally once more. So we're really we're really |
101 | 00:14:59 --> 00:15:06 | expensive. Very, very expensive. And a lot of traders with deeper pockets are |
102 | 00:15:06 --> 00:15:10 | going to wait for a discount, and they're not interested in trying to buy |
103 | 00:15:10 --> 00:15:15 | these inflated prices. The public, the street, you know, the street money, or |
104 | 00:15:15 --> 00:15:19 | quote, unquote dumb money. They'll, they'll buy it every single time it does |
105 | 00:15:19 --> 00:15:24 | this, because they're, they're buying momentum, or they're shorting weakness. |
106 | 00:15:24 --> 00:15:29 | So they're, they're cheap, they're always, perpetually chasing price. And |
107 | 00:15:29 --> 00:15:33 | as a professionally minded speculator analyst, you want to be looking for |
108 | 00:15:33 --> 00:15:39 | cheap, discounted prices to buy, and you want to sell expensive, premium priced |
109 | 00:15:39 --> 00:15:44 | instruments. So it's very important to have those rules and write those things |
110 | 00:15:44 --> 00:15:51 | down in your journal. Nothing forces you to pay too much. Nothing should make you |
111 | 00:15:51 --> 00:15:54 | feel like you're going to miss out, so you're willing to pay a higher price for |
112 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:00 | it. If you have that rule in your trading, it's going to prevent a lot of |
113 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:06 | hard, heartache and hardships, because chasing price is never a good thing. |
114 | 00:16:07 --> 00:16:11 | Very, very few and far between. Are there instances where chasing it and it |
115 | 00:16:11 --> 00:16:16 | runs, you know, five, 608 points. It's very rare that it does that, but it's |
116 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:20 | more likely that it does these little go up, breakout, get people caught long, |
117 | 00:16:20 --> 00:16:25 | and if they didn't get enough on that pass, here they have it now. So we have |
118 | 00:16:25 --> 00:16:30 | 123, now we have it with the candle layer. So we have three, three drives, |
119 | 00:16:30 --> 00:16:36 | pattern higher inside liquidity. All of this is made jagged now. And I want to |
120 | 00:16:36 --> 00:16:41 | see, can we get into this below it cheated as inversion, fair value gap, as |
121 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:45 | long as it doesn't trade below these lows or into this gap here, I'd like to |
122 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:49 | see it use that as a catalyst to bring us down into that and then, |
123 | 00:16:50 --> 00:16:53 | hypothetically, Caleb, what you would say is I want to see if it does these |
124 | 00:16:53 --> 00:16:57 | very things. This would be a screenshot that goes down there after King off |
125 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:02 | that. That's a screenshot for a short idea, but you're not demoing it. You're |
126 | 00:17:02 --> 00:17:06 | not in any kind of actual trade. You're just watching it. And then you would |
127 | 00:17:06 --> 00:17:10 | say, okay, partial taken here. And then you would look to see if it wants to get |
128 | 00:17:10 --> 00:17:15 | down into this one. But you're taking one step at a time. You're not trying to |
129 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:20 | go in here and pick the top. You're not trying to you call the top. You're |
130 | 00:17:20 --> 00:17:25 | looking for signatures to support an idea that you're hunting that will be |
131 | 00:17:25 --> 00:17:29 | part of your repertoire and your model. You're not forcing your idea. You're not |
132 | 00:17:29 --> 00:17:31 | arm wrestling. You're not trying to impose your will. You're not saying it |
133 | 00:17:31 --> 00:17:36 | has to happen. You're watching to see if these things do in fact, form in price |
134 | 00:17:36 --> 00:17:44 | action. Gotta be really, really relaxed. Try not to expect everything to pan out |
135 | 00:17:47 --> 00:17:56 | to your wishes every day, because it's not going to be like that always. Okay? |
136 | 00:17:56 --> 00:18:06 | Small little gap right here between that candle and this candle high I |
137 | 00:18:17 --> 00:18:21 | keep telling myself, pour my water into a cup that wasn't it's not always making |
138 | 00:18:21 --> 00:18:30 | that noise, but just think of it as ICT, s, Amr. I got people to leave comments |
139 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:34 | say, I like when you whisper. I wish you would talk your commentary and whispers. |
140 | 00:18:35 --> 00:18:41 | Then I have other people saying, dude, why you whispering? I'm creeped out. And |
141 | 00:18:41 --> 00:18:46 | you think, I'm bipolar, my audience is bipolar, and never, you know they're |
142 | 00:18:46 --> 00:18:48 | never they're never satisfied. I |
143 | 00:19:07 --> 00:19:11 | Okay, one more pass into the original buy side right here. |
144 | 00:19:17 --> 00:19:21 | If you look back at what we've been doing since Tuesday, as I mentioned on |
145 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:24 | that day, I said even it wants, even if it wants to keep going higher, it's |
146 | 00:19:24 --> 00:19:29 | okay. We're not trying to pick a top. We're not trying to pick a bottom, but |
147 | 00:19:29 --> 00:19:36 | we're looking for logic to frame a a form of study that will helpfully, |
148 | 00:19:36 --> 00:19:42 | hopefully and help formulate a routine that we go into price and we look for |
149 | 00:19:42 --> 00:19:46 | these types of things to occur, and if they are not in the chart, you're |
150 | 00:19:46 --> 00:19:53 | sitting still. It doesn't mean you your sub par, sub standard not able to trade, |
151 | 00:19:53 --> 00:19:56 | because you're not looking at every one of these fluctuations and knowing it's |
152 | 00:19:56 --> 00:20:01 | going to do it. That's irrelevant right now, the information. Is too premature, |
153 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:07 | and we're waiting. So I'm framing it on. I want to see it get below here. If it |
154 | 00:20:07 --> 00:20:11 | keeps going higher, that's okay. I'll wait for more information, because 10 |
155 | 00:20:11 --> 00:20:16 | o'clock silver bullet, that's our main focus for the day. But we're watching |
156 | 00:20:16 --> 00:20:20 | and observing the opening range, how we're behaving initially with the |
157 | 00:20:20 --> 00:20:24 | liquidity sell side, which I should have this annotated, I apologize. |
158 | 00:20:36 --> 00:20:54 | You. Uh, now, when we were looking at this gap here, as I was mentioning it, I |
159 | 00:20:54 --> 00:20:59 | would have preferred to see this go and not come back down to that again. The |
160 | 00:21:00 --> 00:21:04 | fact that it came down like that, to me is problematic. I don't want to see a |
161 | 00:21:04 --> 00:21:10 | run do that. And it just feels like they keep sending it higher, sending it |
162 | 00:21:10 --> 00:21:16 | higher. And all of this is work to get people in, going long or stopping out |
163 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:22 | anyone that's already short. So this is these types of days, or these types of |
164 | 00:21:22 --> 00:21:27 | conditions. In early part of the session, you see people complain, Oh, |
165 | 00:21:27 --> 00:21:30 | they're chopping me up. I get, I get, keep getting stopped out. I don't know. |
166 | 00:21:30 --> 00:21:34 | It's just, you know, the CHOP is, you know, really messing me up. You just, |
167 | 00:21:34 --> 00:21:39 | you have to learn to wait. It's nothing, nothing going on, just because we |
168 | 00:21:39 --> 00:21:44 | annotate the gaps and the runs where it could reach to that's not your trade |
169 | 00:21:44 --> 00:21:49 | setup. That's not Caleb setup. It's just worth studying delivery, how it behaves. |
170 | 00:21:49 --> 00:21:54 | Is it able to hold on to these levels once they're being booked like we're I'm |
171 | 00:21:54 --> 00:22:00 | studying this. This is where my my eye is. I'm looking at how price is held. |
172 | 00:22:01 --> 00:22:02 | Above here, |
173 | 00:22:16 --> 00:22:22 | all of this, I'm viewing that as potentially just a trap, keeping the |
174 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:26 | market there, holding it there and then, because it won't rally, or if it doesn't |
175 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:30 | rally to say it that way, doesn't if it doesn't go higher and paragraph, we |
176 | 00:22:30 --> 00:22:36 | start running away higher. It's more likely that this is just being kind of |
177 | 00:22:36 --> 00:22:41 | like a snare, holding traders in the hope that it's going to keep going |
178 | 00:22:41 --> 00:22:44 | higher, because we had this big run at 830 they feel like they missed the move |
179 | 00:22:44 --> 00:22:52 | we opened at 930 small little decline into a fair value gap and then back up |
180 | 00:22:52 --> 00:22:57 | into the the buy side. So we we're working this area above this high, but |
181 | 00:22:57 --> 00:23:04 | are we seeing any immediate runs higher since then, not yet it can. But I don't |
182 | 00:23:04 --> 00:23:09 | want to trade this early, because these are generally times where you can get |
183 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:12 | caught off guard or offside. That means you're on the wrong side of the |
184 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:19 | marketplace. So I would rather err on the side of caution and wait for the |
185 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:23 | information I've already given you. I want to see this gap trade down through |
186 | 00:23:23 --> 00:23:27 | it, treat it as inversion, fair value gap, and reach for this liquidity and |
187 | 00:23:27 --> 00:23:31 | maybe get as far as down here, and it can still go higher. Just look at how it |
188 | 00:23:31 --> 00:23:39 | traded yesterday. Okay, so give me another higher high. So same thing here. |
189 | 00:23:39 --> 00:23:44 | I'm still viewing this as all of this could be 10, could potentially just be |
190 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:50 | holding traders in, trapping them at a higher price, and then break them lower, |
191 | 00:23:51 --> 00:23:54 | because they could do two things by doing that. Number one, it's going to |
192 | 00:23:54 --> 00:23:57 | cause pain for anyone that bought a breakout. I'm not interested in buying a |
193 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:03 | breakout if, if it Rawlings and keeps going higher. It's okay. It's a move |
194 | 00:24:03 --> 00:24:07 | that I'm not a part of. Go back to the lecture I gave on Tuesdays live stream. |
195 | 00:24:07 --> 00:24:15 | I guess that would be what the seventh just look at whatever Tuesday's date is, |
196 | 00:24:16 --> 00:24:21 | and that that lecture talks about what I'm willing to endure, what I'm looking |
197 | 00:24:21 --> 00:24:25 | for, what I will not be interested in trading on, and when I let price go |
198 | 00:24:25 --> 00:24:33 | without me. So because we've had this big run up since 830 let's put something |
199 | 00:24:33 --> 00:24:42 | back in the chart again. This is all euphoria, and then we had a high we |
200 | 00:24:42 --> 00:24:47 | open. Traded above it, traded above it, traded above it, traded now we're here. |
201 | 00:24:48 --> 00:24:51 | I'm not interested in taking that long. I don't want to buy this. I don't want |
202 | 00:24:51 --> 00:24:55 | to I wouldn't take a fair value gap in here to go down into the trade higher, |
203 | 00:24:55 --> 00:25:00 | because it's too long in the tooth. That means it's too far straight. Reached |
204 | 00:25:00 --> 00:25:05 | out, and it's more likely to try to revert back to a fair value. What is |
205 | 00:25:05 --> 00:25:12 | that? Where liquidity is below lows, below lows, gaps relative equal lows. |
206 | 00:25:13 --> 00:25:18 | This gap here, this consolidation, there's a lot of liquidity and interest |
207 | 00:25:18 --> 00:25:22 | to protect a long position right right below here, because it's moved up a lot, |
208 | 00:25:22 --> 00:25:26 | real quick. So traders are going to want to place in their stop loss just below |
209 | 00:25:26 --> 00:25:30 | that, to protect and preserve the majority of all this move. If they were |
210 | 00:25:30 --> 00:25:33 | happy or lucky enough to be part of it. |
211 | 00:25:42 --> 00:26:05 | I'm okay, 950 |
212 | 00:26:15 --> 00:26:19 | just about nine minutes before silver bullet, 10 o'clock hour begins. I |
213 | 00:26:26 --> 00:26:27 | i 52 year old bones cracking. Just |
214 | 00:26:41 --> 00:26:49 | want to take a peek at ES. So ES is lagging a little bit, so that means it's |
215 | 00:26:49 --> 00:26:57 | probably going to either see NQ stay at its highs and allow ES to catch up, |
216 | 00:26:59 --> 00:27:04 | meaning that, yes, it should be going above this high. But if we start to see |
217 | 00:27:05 --> 00:27:13 | NASDAQ break down and es fails to go this high or higher, we have |
218 | 00:27:19 --> 00:27:26 | my eyes going here. So if it's going here, I like that gap for ES. So for |
219 | 00:27:26 --> 00:27:32 | those that are watching es, just look at it like this. It's easier to for me to |
220 | 00:27:32 --> 00:27:35 | draw that level there, but it still might first initially take out that |
221 | 00:27:35 --> 00:27:41 | high, because we have NASDAQ flexing today, strutting our shit. |
222 | 00:28:00 --> 00:28:04 | Remember, we're not trying to pick the end of the up move, because it's an |
223 | 00:28:04 --> 00:28:11 | election year. I told you many times, even in Twitter spaces last year and the |
224 | 00:28:11 --> 00:28:16 | year before election years, they tried to pump up the stock market because they |
225 | 00:28:16 --> 00:28:20 | like to make the incumbent president look like they've done well for the |
226 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:24 | economy. But the stock market is not indicative of a measurement of the |
227 | 00:28:24 --> 00:28:30 | economy. It's just a speculative Casino. So it's kind of like a built in self |
228 | 00:28:30 --> 00:28:40 | fulfilling prophecy. Election years tend to have a built in by model. It just |
229 | 00:28:40 --> 00:28:43 | keeps going higher, pressing higher. It's easier for the market to go higher |
230 | 00:28:44 --> 00:28:46 | on election years than it is to drop. |
231 | 00:28:51 --> 00:28:56 | And you add that to the built in premise that stocks are meant to go up, the |
232 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:00 | market's meant to go up. It's you're fighting on a losing battle if you're |
233 | 00:29:00 --> 00:29:04 | trying to, you know, trying to short every instance that the market gives you |
234 | 00:29:04 --> 00:29:10 | some kind of a broken wing tactic, like, oh, look, I'm, I'm about to go down, and |
235 | 00:29:10 --> 00:29:14 | you go in, you try to short it. You get chopped up like this, which is why I |
236 | 00:29:14 --> 00:29:19 | have adopted models where I have to see certain things traded to and then you |
237 | 00:29:19 --> 00:29:24 | got folks that may listen to this or watch it, and they'll say, this guy, |
238 | 00:29:24 --> 00:29:26 | this guy doesn't know where the market's going. I know where it's going. It's |
239 | 00:29:26 --> 00:29:30 | going to keep pushing and squeezing against people that want to go short, |
240 | 00:29:31 --> 00:29:35 | because everything tells me that's wanting to go down here. But I have to |
241 | 00:29:35 --> 00:29:41 | wait for it to stop doing this part of it. And my rules say it's gotta give me |
242 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:46 | this first. Well, you're you're missing out on all this. Are you in it? Did you |
243 | 00:29:46 --> 00:29:52 | go long? I'm not taking anything unless it makes sense, because I don't want to |
244 | 00:29:52 --> 00:29:55 | take a trade. I don't want to go into a trade. I don't want to have a an |
245 | 00:29:55 --> 00:30:01 | emotional tie or concern about the outcome of price flow. Situation unless |
246 | 00:30:01 --> 00:30:05 | it fits the criteria that I anticipate seeing, and if it doesn't have those, |
247 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:11 | those hallmarks, those indications, what am I doing? I'm gambling. Then, if |
248 | 00:30:11 --> 00:30:15 | that's what, I'm not following a rule, if I'm not following a model, then I'm |
249 | 00:30:15 --> 00:30:22 | just chasing price. And that's stupidity. We already know that there's |
250 | 00:30:22 --> 00:30:26 | a likelihood for it to keep going higher. But even if it does go higher, |
251 | 00:30:27 --> 00:30:31 | it has to drop and have some kind of a retracement, some price swing that |
252 | 00:30:31 --> 00:30:37 | upsets liquidity on the on the downside, sell side, sell side has to be engaged. |
253 | 00:30:37 --> 00:30:46 | Because my mentality is, I know that entities with larger pools of income and |
254 | 00:30:47 --> 00:30:53 | equity and money to put on a trade better and greater than I do, they're |
255 | 00:30:53 --> 00:30:57 | not willing to take any interest in the market when it's rallying initially, |
256 | 00:30:57 --> 00:31:02 | right out there opening up this it would rather be more likely that they'll wait |
257 | 00:31:02 --> 00:31:06 | for the market to come back and go into a pool of liquidity where there's deeper |
258 | 00:31:06 --> 00:31:10 | discounted prices, and that's always going to be below old lows, singular or |
259 | 00:31:10 --> 00:31:17 | relatively equal lows. And waiting for those instances is far better than just |
260 | 00:31:17 --> 00:31:21 | simply saying it keeps going up. Just keeps going up. Let me just get in here, |
261 | 00:31:21 --> 00:31:23 | because it might just keep going it could you going. It could it could keep, |
262 | 00:31:23 --> 00:31:28 | just keep great on going up today and just like on Tuesday. I don't care. I |
263 | 00:31:28 --> 00:31:32 | don't care about that, because I'm not trying to be just a part of the move. I |
264 | 00:31:32 --> 00:31:37 | want to be in a setup that I have framed with logic that I've recognized, I've |
265 | 00:31:37 --> 00:31:41 | seen before, and I'm not just going in there for the sake of I want to put |
266 | 00:31:41 --> 00:31:46 | another coin in the slot machine to see if I can get a jackpot today. That's |
267 | 00:31:46 --> 00:31:55 | gambling. So in other words, it has to make sense, or I'm not doing it. I'll |
268 | 00:31:55 --> 00:31:58 | let other people out there demo and do the trades and try to fade me and say, I |
269 | 00:31:58 --> 00:32:02 | did this. But you won't have any logic behind it. It was just because you |
270 | 00:32:02 --> 00:32:07 | wanted to say you did something different. I was reading Tom just chat |
271 | 00:32:08 --> 00:32:14 | yesterday while I was going back over the people I like looking at, and I'm |
272 | 00:32:14 --> 00:32:17 | reading the comments or saying, ICT doesn't know where, where the market's |
273 | 00:32:17 --> 00:32:20 | going to go. Even ICT is doesn't even know where the market's going. I was |
274 | 00:32:20 --> 00:32:24 | outlining it yesterday. These people are really, really, really funny. |
275 | 00:32:36 --> 00:32:47 | Let's take a peek at the let's look at the weekly chart. |
276 | 00:32:58 --> 00:32:58 | Right here. I'm |
277 | 00:33:06 --> 00:33:13 | so 440, 4.5 is that what that is? It looks like it |
278 | 00:33:19 --> 00:33:28 | all right, and now we can go so we're trading in the middle or consequent |
279 | 00:33:28 --> 00:33:33 | correction of that weekly gap, or weekly wick, which we treat as a gap. So I want |
280 | 00:33:33 --> 00:33:36 | to see, does it start to peter out and run out of steam? Here I'm |
281 | 00:33:43 --> 00:33:50 | it powers through and goes higher that same level, 444, 50 or so could act as |
282 | 00:33:50 --> 00:33:54 | an inversion level, but I'm not trying to do anything with it unless it goes |
283 | 00:33:54 --> 00:33:59 | back down through it comes back up And then treats it as A means of support. I |
284 | 00:34:44 --> 00:34:45 | Yeah, that's beautiful. |
285 | 00:34:52 --> 00:34:55 | The other reason why I'd like to see it trade lower before I would ever want to |
286 | 00:34:55 --> 00:35:01 | go long is if you look at the opening range, it's annotated. I. With the high |
287 | 00:35:01 --> 00:35:07 | of it here, which is the opening price at 930, many times. Many, many times. |
288 | 00:35:07 --> 00:35:11 | Even when you have runs that just start running like this, they'll want to come |
289 | 00:35:11 --> 00:35:15 | back down, in this case, to come down and touch the opening range high, which |
290 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:19 | is simply the opening price. And then if it wants to keep going higher, then it |
291 | 00:35:19 --> 00:35:22 | can start to go higher and press through that going into the close of the week. |
292 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:29 | Either way, this is still nothing I would chase. I would not want to be a |
293 | 00:35:29 --> 00:35:35 | part of that. And I can understand if you're new, or if you're rather a |
294 | 00:35:35 --> 00:35:38 | novice. You've been trading for a little while, you may be demonstrating, maybe |
295 | 00:35:38 --> 00:35:42 | you passed a fund account but never got to pay out. And you're just always |
296 | 00:35:42 --> 00:35:47 | constantly looking to validate yourself by having criticism directed towards |
297 | 00:35:47 --> 00:35:51 | somebody else. If I'm sitting out here and everybody knows I'm a little bit of |
298 | 00:35:51 --> 00:35:56 | a loud mouth, and you see, runs like this, and you're saying, well, he |
299 | 00:35:56 --> 00:36:02 | should, he should be part of that. Well, I'm not interested personally in trying |
300 | 00:36:02 --> 00:36:06 | to chase after that, and that's that's been my roles ever since I stepped out |
301 | 00:36:06 --> 00:36:12 | as a trader, educator type guru, if you want to call it that, you'll see more |
302 | 00:36:12 --> 00:36:18 | instances of trying to chase it and then failing. Then it just keeps going higher |
303 | 00:36:18 --> 00:36:21 | and higher and higher and never turns around like these are unsustainable |
304 | 00:36:21 --> 00:36:27 | price runs. There has to be some kind of a retracement. And if you don't blame |
305 | 00:36:27 --> 00:36:31 | me, go in with your account and trade it and see how hard it is to hold it number |
306 | 00:36:31 --> 00:36:37 | one. Every little fluctuation or candlestick that stays small and doesn't |
307 | 00:36:37 --> 00:36:42 | really rally, you're going to start feeling all of this anxiety because |
308 | 00:36:42 --> 00:36:49 | you're like, oh man, oh man, because two, it's two perfectly one sided. And |
309 | 00:36:49 --> 00:36:52 | to me, that's just too enticing for someone to get raked across the coals. |
310 | 00:36:52 --> 00:36:59 | And I'm not willing to be the person to do that. So I will give up price runs |
311 | 00:36:59 --> 00:37:04 | like that, just like on Tuesday, it's not important to me. It has to make |
312 | 00:37:04 --> 00:37:05 | sense. So We're in 10 o'clock now. You |
313 | 00:37:51 --> 00:37:58 | the Dow. It's another reason why I'm not a fan of going in it, because NASDAQ is |
314 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:04 | the only one. Only one isn't interesting that I'm live streaming, and I'm telling |
315 | 00:38:04 --> 00:38:08 | I'm not looking for it to go higher, I'm looking for it to go lower and keep |
316 | 00:38:08 --> 00:38:12 | driving it higher, keep because some of you are probably trying to predict and |
317 | 00:38:12 --> 00:38:17 | trying to capture the high and trying to go short. And if anyone's doing that, |
318 | 00:38:17 --> 00:38:21 | you're you're providing liquidity for that market to keep rebooking higher |
319 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:25 | because they know they can use your trade to book that higher price that |
320 | 00:38:25 --> 00:38:28 | they keep pumping out into the marketplace. They keep offering higher |
321 | 00:38:28 --> 00:38:31 | prices. And you go into the market order, you go in with the limb order |
322 | 00:38:31 --> 00:38:36 | that meets that criteria. They keep pushing price the whole time, Dow. And I |
323 | 00:38:36 --> 00:38:42 | don't make the case for SMT, just on the basis of Dow, but look at down compared |
324 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:52 | to ES. This is SMT. Look at the ES, oops. That's the wrong one. It's gonna |
325 | 00:38:52 --> 00:38:56 | say, Wow, we gotta. We got a real mixed market now. So we have the higher high |
326 | 00:38:56 --> 00:39:08 | there, but we don't have it with the the Dow and go back into NQ. There we go. So |
327 | 00:39:08 --> 00:39:17 | we could be forming an enemy term high here for NASDAQ, and I'm interested in, |
328 | 00:39:21 --> 00:39:31 | let me leave that there for now. I'm interested in this gap right here, right |
329 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:31 | there. |
330 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:46 | So now, because we've had this elongated run in market, protraction higher |
331 | 00:39:46 --> 00:39:50 | digging in, digging in, digging in, taking anybody that wants to be short |
332 | 00:39:50 --> 00:39:55 | out, building in people net long. So now they have counter parties that they've |
333 | 00:39:55 --> 00:40:02 | sold to. Initial fair value is. This not fair value gap. Fair value, for the sake |
334 | 00:40:02 --> 00:40:09 | of fair value, is the opening range high, which is the 930 opening price. So |
335 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:14 | it's in my interest to see drawing back down into that and touching that again, |
336 | 00:40:14 --> 00:40:18 | even if it wants to go higher, that's fine. That thing pops up. I'm |
337 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:28 | right? So now say you're long and you were chasing it here because you wanted |
338 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:31 | to fade ICT, because ICT said I wouldn't buy this. I'm gonna go long and I'm |
339 | 00:40:31 --> 00:40:34 | gonna be able to show social media that I went long. Well, You're shitting |
340 | 00:40:34 --> 00:40:42 | yourself now, I went a little bit more than that, just opening and touching |
341 | 00:40:42 --> 00:40:43 | that it's not enough. |
342 | 00:40:51 --> 00:41:02 | Don't ask me why they say it, but I woke up singing that this morning. I |
343 | 00:41:23 --> 00:41:35 | so I have, I have a Samsung Galaxy Note, 20. I think I forgot what it is. It's, |
344 | 00:41:35 --> 00:41:46 | I've had it for like, two years, and I did the update on it. There's our |
345 | 00:41:46 --> 00:41:53 | inversion there that you got the now the top of my screen, on the top edge of it, |
346 | 00:41:53 --> 00:41:59 | it flickers and it doesn't show the full, like on YouTube, everything is |
347 | 00:41:59 --> 00:42:05 | truncated. Doesn't show everything, and my emails don't don't show, and my |
348 | 00:42:05 --> 00:42:10 | charts don't show. So it's something at the top of the screen, so that, I guess |
349 | 00:42:10 --> 00:42:15 | that's that planned, obsolete stuff they do. Well, guess you got to get a new |
350 | 00:42:15 --> 00:42:20 | phone, don't you it? Nope, this is my last album. I'm not buying another one |
351 | 00:42:20 --> 00:42:21 | that can suck my ass. We |
352 | 00:42:37 --> 00:42:41 | want to see it if it wants to trade back to here. We want to see it get below |
353 | 00:42:42 --> 00:42:46 | consequence correction of that wick right now. It's potentially useful using |
354 | 00:42:46 --> 00:42:53 | it as support to go back up into this inefficiency once more. So in other |
355 | 00:42:53 --> 00:43:00 | words, we can see a spike or a wick above the inversion of their Vega can |
356 | 00:43:00 --> 00:43:06 | spike up into that, but the body stay inside of it. That's that's okay. In my |
357 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:10 | mind, it's permissible. I don't want to see it go back up to here, because that |
358 | 00:43:10 --> 00:43:15 | would mean that this is an exhaustion gap, and it's moved away aggressively. |
359 | 00:43:16 --> 00:43:19 | This one here, it can be traded up into, but I'd like to see the upper portion of |
360 | 00:43:19 --> 00:43:26 | it stay open, so let me zoom in, so that way you can see it maximize first. |
361 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:44 | Think of it like this. High there's half, so I would like to see this |
362 | 00:43:44 --> 00:43:56 | portion up here. Stay open. So like this here, so that I |
363 | 00:44:24 --> 00:44:30 | Okay, so any little spiking up with a wick, but the body staying inside of |
364 | 00:44:30 --> 00:44:35 | that shaded area here validates this as an inversion fair value gap. So now, |
365 | 00:44:36 --> 00:44:41 | say, on a day like this, where you keep seeing just keep driving higher, higher, |
366 | 00:44:41 --> 00:44:47 | higher, higher. And it's, I guess I don't want to use the words, I won't. I |
367 | 00:44:47 --> 00:44:53 | won't use the words. It's a it's more difficult for you to get a read on it. |
368 | 00:44:53 --> 00:44:56 | You don't want to trust buying it, because it's going higher. And it's been |
369 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:02 | going straight up from the open but it's also had a. Run at 830 so every Tom Dick |
370 | 00:45:02 --> 00:45:07 | and Harry Street Money is trying to buy this today, right off the open and |
371 | 00:45:07 --> 00:45:15 | they've rewarded them with a sugar rush. But you see the things I'm showing here, |
372 | 00:45:16 --> 00:45:21 | this gap, we want to see a trade there. There's a inefficiency here, this one, |
373 | 00:45:21 --> 00:45:30 | we want to see that treated as an exhausting gap. This one, we want to see |
374 | 00:45:30 --> 00:45:33 | it stay open in the upper half of it, because if it can't trade up into this |
375 | 00:45:33 --> 00:45:37 | portion of it, that means it's really heavy, and we can have a strong |
376 | 00:45:37 --> 00:45:42 | conviction. I would rather I would have a strong conviction about it, |
377 | 00:45:42 --> 00:45:47 | potentially returning back to the 930 opening price and leaving that pink area |
378 | 00:45:47 --> 00:45:53 | up here unfilled. Okay, and all, it's not, don't completely close it in. Can |
379 | 00:45:53 --> 00:45:57 | it go up there and close that in and still go lower? Yes, it's just a matter |
380 | 00:45:57 --> 00:46:05 | of, I prefer it not to do that. We've had one, two little wicks above outside |
381 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:09 | of this, but where the bodies are inside of it, inside of that gap, right there, |
382 | 00:46:13 --> 00:46:19 | we found our way through the midpoint of this gap, which is the discount wick. So |
383 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:25 | halfway, let me get all these extra lines off. Nice. I'm sorry I was running |
384 | 00:46:25 --> 00:46:37 | standard deviations on S P last night, and I left them on my dog. So here's the |
385 | 00:46:37 --> 00:46:42 | consequence of that. I don't like the fact that we were bumping up again in |
386 | 00:46:42 --> 00:46:47 | here after making lower attempts to go lower. So now go back into thinking that |
387 | 00:46:47 --> 00:46:52 | it could very well go in here once more, maybe touch the low, which is consequent |
388 | 00:46:52 --> 00:46:57 | encroachment of this low, that candle high. But this portion, I want to see |
389 | 00:46:57 --> 00:47:01 | that stay open if it completely rolls over top of that pink area and trades |
390 | 00:47:01 --> 00:47:06 | higher. I'm standing still, and I'm gonna have no bias, and it would be a |
391 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:12 | no, no touch, no trade, not doing anything. And I would then wait until 11 |
392 | 00:47:12 --> 00:47:16 | o'clock, 1130 to try to trade against whatever's been in the marketplace up |
393 | 00:47:16 --> 00:47:22 | until that point. And I would use that as a lunch macro, and I'll fade the run |
394 | 00:47:22 --> 00:47:26 | at that time, and I'll look for similar situations. So here we are. We have We |
395 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:35 | spiked up into that portion here, which is permissible. If we can get a close |
396 | 00:47:36 --> 00:47:41 | below this point here, that would indicate that it's most likely going to |
397 | 00:47:41 --> 00:47:45 | roll over and then return back into the opening range. |
398 | 00:48:00 --> 00:48:05 | Having done this as long as I have. I'm very, very appreciative of having the |
399 | 00:48:06 --> 00:48:11 | patience that as a younger man I would not have had. I would have been chomping |
400 | 00:48:11 --> 00:48:14 | at the bit. Every time it rallied up. I've been like, Oh man, I wish I would |
401 | 00:48:14 --> 00:48:18 | have bought that. I wish I would have bought that, and seeing how it's |
402 | 00:48:18 --> 00:48:24 | trading. Now I'm I'm thankful that I had endured the painful lessons that I had |
403 | 00:48:24 --> 00:48:29 | to endure, because if I didn't, I would have, I would have never learned any |
404 | 00:48:29 --> 00:48:38 | other way, because I had initial luck, and that's always a bad thing. It ain't |
405 | 00:48:38 --> 00:48:45 | made on skill and real ability, and it's just luck you can't hang your hat. You |
406 | 00:48:45 --> 00:48:49 | can't hang your hat on that and feel good about it, and it certainly doesn't |
407 | 00:48:49 --> 00:48:50 | bolster confidence. |
408 | 00:48:56 --> 00:49:01 | There we go. Touch the consequent encroachment. And again, I want to see |
409 | 00:49:01 --> 00:49:09 | this portion stay open. And if it trades through it and above it, my interest is |
410 | 00:49:09 --> 00:49:15 | over. I'm not doing anything with it. And if I have time, I may stream the |
411 | 00:49:15 --> 00:49:20 | afternoon in that event. No promises, but that would be Something I might want |
412 | 00:49:20 --> 00:49:21 | to do. |
413 | 00:49:42 --> 00:50:22 | You I click peak at Yes, I'm looking at everything just like you would if you |
414 | 00:50:22 --> 00:50:28 | don't have all the real estate I have in hardware and charts and stuff. I had my |
415 | 00:50:28 --> 00:50:34 | single laptop. I'm in my basement laying on my wife's love sack here, using the |
416 | 00:50:34 --> 00:50:38 | foot stool as my pedestal for my laptop, which is probably not a good idea. |
417 | 00:50:38 --> 00:50:53 | That's why it's so hot, it's not even able to vent. Anyhow, and then take |
418 | 00:50:53 --> 00:51:03 | quick look at the Dow new participation. So we have a mixed condition where we |
419 | 00:51:03 --> 00:51:09 | don't have all three averages agreeing. That's also something that if this would |
420 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:13 | have been like the s, p, then it really would have been problematic to be a |
421 | 00:51:13 --> 00:51:24 | buyer. For me, I don't need all that. I It feels like they're going to wipe that |
422 | 00:51:24 --> 00:51:30 | high one more time, just because I'm outlining it for retracement. And if I |
423 | 00:51:30 --> 00:51:36 | was making the market and I still was live stream, I would do that too, and |
424 | 00:51:36 --> 00:51:37 | then I'd sync it after |
425 | 00:51:42 --> 00:51:46 | that, I see that timing You think I don't know what you're Doing, |
426 | 00:51:51 --> 00:54:13 | though. I So so far we've had this entire gap closing here. The bodies are |
427 | 00:54:13 --> 00:54:19 | stopping. That one little little millhack outside of that range. This |
428 | 00:54:19 --> 00:54:26 | portion, again, I'm viewing that as a exhaustion. Press press, press press |
429 | 00:54:26 --> 00:54:33 | higher. Trade below the gap I have interest in this. |
430 | 00:54:41 --> 00:54:43 | Feels like they want to pump it one more time. I. |
431 | 00:57:10 --> 00:57:18 | I swear that why anybody likes to trade the Dow is beyond me. Is so ugly, it's |
432 | 00:57:18 --> 00:57:21 | only 30 stocks so sloppy. |
433 | 00:57:34 --> 00:57:43 | So now here's what we have. You have the market has dropped short, uh, Heather, |
434 | 00:57:43 --> 00:57:44 | stop loss here. |
435 | 00:57:51 --> 00:57:58 | Not this one, this one, if we get a higher high, because I have to make my |
436 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:03 | escape here. My appointments coming up, I'm gonna make sure I get off here and |
437 | 00:58:03 --> 00:58:11 | be ready for it, because it's a fun conversation I have to have. So okay, |
438 | 00:58:11 --> 00:58:16 | we're in this area here, so that means it's probably going to run this high. If |
439 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:21 | it runs the high, then I would look for it to break down. If we can get back |
440 | 00:58:21 --> 00:58:26 | below this gap, this I would like to see that act as an inversion for everybody. |
441 | 00:58:26 --> 00:58:37 | Gap. No trades have been taken, no, no face needs to be saved, no, no pain, no |
442 | 00:58:37 --> 00:58:42 | embarrassment, no nothing. It has to, it has to provide me the information, or |
443 | 00:58:42 --> 00:58:49 | there's nothing. And I'm I'm not going to co sign on market action that I'm |
444 | 00:58:49 --> 00:58:53 | not, I'm not comfortable with, and that's the whole point of teaching my |
445 | 00:58:53 --> 00:58:57 | son this way, because it's not about getting in a trade system because you |
446 | 00:58:57 --> 00:59:06 | have a trade so I'd like to see it bump to high one more time. That would that |
447 | 00:59:06 --> 00:59:12 | would give the Street Money comfort that they're they're probably right, and then |
448 | 00:59:12 --> 00:59:17 | they would raise their stop loss below here. So this is where a second pool of |
449 | 00:59:17 --> 00:59:21 | liquidity is metal, equal lows. It's |
450 | 00:59:27 --> 00:59:32 | going to go up there. It should do it now, because you had a gap, it overshot. |
451 | 00:59:32 --> 00:59:37 | It went into that gap here. So it should spring up there and clear that high |
452 | 00:59:39 --> 00:59:39 | this. You |
453 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:12 | I might, I might live stream this evening, this afternoon, rather, if I |
454 | 01:00:12 --> 01:00:18 | do, you'll see a post on my community post on my community tab on the YouTube |
455 | 01:00:18 --> 01:00:29 | channel. It wouldn't be before it would probably be 145 if I do it at all. |
456 | 01:00:35 --> 01:00:40 | But this for Caleb's learning, he would be doing nothing. He wouldn't do |
457 | 01:00:40 --> 01:00:45 | anything today because the time constraints have already expired for |
458 | 01:00:45 --> 01:00:49 | him. It wouldn't be something he would be pushing and doing anything. So he |
459 | 01:00:49 --> 01:00:52 | would turn his charts off and just go do whatever he's going to do, and then come |
460 | 01:00:52 --> 01:00:58 | back in the evening and do his logging and back test to study to see what was |
461 | 01:00:58 --> 01:01:06 | available in price action. I I'll stay with you for another three minutes, and |
462 | 01:01:06 --> 01:01:13 | then we'll close this one when we get through August. This is pretty much what |
463 | 01:01:13 --> 01:01:18 | the the timelines are going to be like, starting when the stream hopefully at |
464 | 01:01:18 --> 01:01:25 | 915 but 915 and then closing them by 11am so they'll be a little bit smaller |
465 | 01:01:25 --> 01:01:30 | in duration and a whole lot less talking, because I want to be observing |
466 | 01:01:30 --> 01:01:35 | and watching price and only speaking when There's something that's pertinent. |
467 | 01:01:41 --> 01:01:48 | So I'd like to see as like a trap or a one more gun on it to set up a |
468 | 01:01:48 --> 01:01:53 | retracement into the opening range. Gap high is not just go above this high by |
469 | 01:01:53 --> 01:01:57 | like a tick or two. I want to see them throw it above. They're pretty good, |
470 | 01:01:58 --> 01:02:03 | like 1015, handles, maybe 20 handles above it, and then peter out. And |
471 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:13 | especially if they do that with the s, p, not doing so hot in in comparison, it |
472 | 01:02:13 --> 01:02:17 | should take that high up. So you're understanding, I believe that that high |
473 | 01:02:17 --> 01:02:23 | could be taken out. But this afternoon, going into lunch, or post lunch, this |
474 | 01:02:23 --> 01:02:28 | gap in this level right there, I believe we're gonna see that again today. That's |
475 | 01:02:28 --> 01:02:31 | what I would go into the afternoon, without me knowing thing more than I |
476 | 01:02:31 --> 01:02:35 | have in the chart right now. I would look for those levels to be treated to, |
477 | 01:02:35 --> 01:02:39 | and if it doesn't do it prior to one o'clock, then I would expect that to be |
478 | 01:02:40 --> 01:02:44 | what we would see in the afternoon. And if I can find the time and opportunity |
479 | 01:02:45 --> 01:02:48 | to live stream it, and it hasn't done those things, I'll come out and I'll try |
480 | 01:02:48 --> 01:02:59 | to walk you through as well. But the lion, this is a sick puppy like I would |
481 | 01:02:59 --> 01:03:08 | not be interested in that at all. Now, one of the things that Dow tend to do is |
482 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:12 | it'll do all this lethargic, I'm not following along in PAL, and then all of |
483 | 01:03:12 --> 01:03:16 | a sudden it comes to life. And real suddenly runs and gets to these levels. |
484 | 01:03:16 --> 01:03:20 | So then that way you have any cancelation of an SMT divergence, where |
485 | 01:03:21 --> 01:03:24 | one indicee makes a higher high, or two indices make a higher high and one |
486 | 01:03:24 --> 01:03:30 | doesn't. Generally, it's usually going to be the Dow that doesn't want to |
487 | 01:03:30 --> 01:03:34 | listen. It's a brat. It just does not want to listen. And that's the reason |
488 | 01:03:34 --> 01:03:40 | why I don't trade it, because it's usually the first indication of things |
489 | 01:03:40 --> 01:03:45 | starting to crack. Things are not they're not as strong or as weak as they |
490 | 01:03:45 --> 01:03:54 | may seem. And I prefer to see a SMT divergence on either the ES or the |
491 | 01:03:54 --> 01:03:58 | NASDAQ compared comparatively so. In other words, if a higher, high scene in |
492 | 01:03:58 --> 01:04:06 | yes, if the market breath and strength is there, then the NASDAQ should do it |
493 | 01:04:06 --> 01:04:11 | too. And if it's not, if it's not seen, then I'm not really willing to chase or |
494 | 01:04:11 --> 01:04:17 | look for continuation, or look for a follow through for the session or for |
495 | 01:04:17 --> 01:04:23 | the day. This should pop up area next the candle. |
496 | 01:04:34 --> 01:04:43 | There it is. So anyone that's short here, they've been canceled out. So |
497 | 01:04:43 --> 01:04:47 | then, now I can't stay with you, because I gotta escape now, but I would look for |
498 | 01:04:47 --> 01:04:51 | a reason for it to roll over and then it starts to accelerate. Now, treat this |
499 | 01:04:51 --> 01:04:56 | gap as an inversion pair ready gap, and because of the range and the size of it, |
500 | 01:04:56 --> 01:05:00 | run the quadrants on it. So put your fiddle in that candle is low. That |
501 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:04 | candle is high, and have all those levels in here, and we would start to |
502 | 01:05:04 --> 01:05:08 | see once it gets down below it. We want to see the upper half of it left pretty |
503 | 01:05:08 --> 01:05:13 | much open, not try to trade to it too much, and all the work we've done at the |
504 | 01:05:13 --> 01:05:17 | lower half or underneath it. And then send us below the consequent correction |
505 | 01:05:17 --> 01:05:25 | of that wicks midpoint, and accelerate with large candles below here, trading |
506 | 01:05:25 --> 01:05:30 | back down into opening range, gap high. And if it wants to accelerate through |
507 | 01:05:30 --> 01:05:34 | that into the afternoon here and the liquidity there, and it can still go |
508 | 01:05:34 --> 01:05:40 | higher after that, just know that that's what I would expect. And I think that's |
509 | 01:05:40 --> 01:05:47 | going to be it not all that terribly sexy today, but that's how it's going to |
510 | 01:05:47 --> 01:05:50 | be. Sometimes, when you're trading your own money, you're going to have to wait |
511 | 01:05:50 --> 01:05:54 | and don't force it. It's going to be it for this one, I will touch base with you |
512 | 01:05:54 --> 01:05:58 | this afternoon. If it's possible, I can work it out with my wife, and she's okay |
513 | 01:05:58 --> 01:06:04 | with it, and if not, I will see you tomorrow before 930 opening bell. Let's |
514 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:09 | say that way. I'm going to aim for 915 but before the opening bell, at 930 New |
515 | 01:06:09 --> 01:06:12 | York, Eastern Time, so I'll talk to you, then be safe. You. |