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ICT YT - 2018-01-17 - ICT January 17 2018.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:11,580 --> 00:00:23,160 ICT: Well, good afternoon, folks. This is a market review for January 17 2018. Real quick, the dollar index is dealing. Now we were watching for the breakdown
2 00:00:23,190 --> 00:00:38,880 on this market and one of the CRM below this low. I'm going to show you what we're anticipating even the highest open or close in this sling, drag it down
3 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:58,440 into its lowest open or close right here and gives us a target one level, you can see that did in fact cause a nice little bounce so far today. Not a terrible
4 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:09,030 amount of pips or move. But noteworthy nonetheless. So we're going to take that off. And you see that notation here. We did sweet through it. Now we're trying
5 00:01:09,030 --> 00:01:21,750 to most likely reach back up, either retest this low or come back up into these equal lows here. Okay, so that might be a catalyst. So we'll look for what's to
6 00:01:21,750 --> 00:01:40,230 close on that 9132. And low on this candle comes in 9138. So we could look forward to run back up to 9130 to 9135. That could be an area of short term
7 00:01:40,260 --> 00:01:50,460 resistance and then maybe see another round of selling or how we come back above this low will be indicative of whether or not we want to see unchallenging of
8 00:01:50,460 --> 00:02:02,550 this short term high here. Okay. So right now, we're looking for slightly very, very, very short term bullish dollar. It's only in the form of a retracement,
9 00:02:02,580 --> 00:02:12,180 I'm not trying to pick the bottom or the low here. But I want to see it try to get back up into the 9130 to 9135 level ideally, it could hit just a 91 big
10 00:02:12,180 --> 00:02:20,910 figure and stopped dead in its tracks there but but you trade both 9130 I'm sorry, 91. Big figure. I'm thinking 9130 is probably where we're going to reach
11 00:02:20,910 --> 00:02:40,680 for so let's go over to the euro dollar. So the euro dollar we had a target of or like they'd rather I shared it on Twitter. Let's look for 122 32 and it's
12 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:51,030 gone well beyond that. So the equal highs here. Nice little retracement back into weekly bullish order block. rallied away. Nice big expansion and treated to
13 00:02:51,030 --> 00:03:06,510 a high today. 2322. Okay, so nice little movement here. 101 pips beyond what I was looking for, which is typical for daily chart. Let's go into a smaller
14 00:03:06,510 --> 00:03:24,810 timeframe on an hourly eurodollar. It's a fiber one hour chart. And we have this low here and an equal low. So we'll be looking for that move here. So for swing
15 00:03:24,810 --> 00:03:38,700 projection of the see if we get any confluence of this swing with anything. Alright, so we have an order block and symmetrical price swing around the 2130
16 00:03:38,700 --> 00:03:47,220 level. So we'll be looking for that as a potential downside objective if focusing on this bullish order block right there. So that's what we're probably
17 00:03:47,220 --> 00:04:01,440 going to see maybe. So we'll have this noted. And it's going to use the top of the block itself, and then just keep that your notes could see as low as 2130.
18 00:04:02,550 --> 00:04:13,290 But for the sake of the charting is identifying the order block itself, we're looking at 2146 It looks like to see what the open knows that you're 2147 so
19 00:04:13,290 --> 00:04:25,380 it's good enough for government work. Okay, so we'll look for that. And man, nice little rejection about these equal highs right here, price came down, right
20 00:04:25,380 --> 00:04:29,250 into otherwise be in optimal trade entry. fee what that looks like.
21 00:04:34,410 --> 00:04:45,300 High super close, lowest open and close right there. Nice little reaction there. And then we look for, again, confluence of target to overlapping. So we have
22 00:04:45,300 --> 00:04:55,530 several things overlapping a bullshitter block the swing projection from this high to this low. We have a nice symmetrical price swing. And now we have target
23 00:04:55,530 --> 00:05:06,300 to using the statement optimal trade entry. So we'll be looking for that level here. So 2145 is the objective. Alright, so we're gonna go to cable. All right,
24 00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:18,090 this one here, I want to go over to daily effects just to pull up my next week. I'll make you wait for that one. I'll show it to you in a minute. But we saw
25 00:05:19,500 --> 00:05:33,210 British Pound trade up to a high today of 3943. And, and I was looking for the market that want to trade below this low today. And I say as long as we stay
26 00:05:33,210 --> 00:05:43,980 below 138 20, we'll be looking for that. And actually didn't do that actually broke back above and gave me a small little market structure shift right in
27 00:05:43,980 --> 00:05:51,990 here. So when this high was broken, I changed gears. Now I know I didn't share it with you openly on Twitter. But you guys watch by way of my execution, you
28 00:05:51,990 --> 00:06:00,690 see my entries and such if you go on Twitter, you'll see the the entry points and all that when I was acting on was a bullhorn block and expansion away from
29 00:06:00,690 --> 00:06:13,260 that. And using the weekly objective that I talked about several different times on my YouTube channel and on several instances on Twitter. So let me apply all
30 00:06:13,260 --> 00:06:23,370 that information. And we'll change the chart and show you what that looks like. Alright, so we're looking at the British Pound on the 15 minute timeframe. This
31 00:06:23,370 --> 00:06:34,440 is midnight, New York time. So we have a little bit of Judas swinging here. Admittedly, I didn't like anything over here to draw off of for a setup, I
32 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:43,890 wasn't really looking for anything to go long here. I would rather had it trade down below the low here and had it done that I would have went long for that.
33 00:06:43,890 --> 00:06:52,620 But we didn't get it. And it's nothing really in here that's strong enough that I can zero Wednesday. Okay, that's the level I want. So that's why I was more
34 00:06:52,650 --> 00:07:01,350 inclined to wait for the trade below that low, I was gonna pick up any sell stop rate, with the anticipation of running to the 138 65 level now 138 65, it's
35 00:07:01,350 --> 00:07:11,730 gonna feel like where'd that number come from? Where's that level? What's the significance for it? Well, it's on a weekly chart. And if we go to daily FX,
36 00:07:11,730 --> 00:07:22,470 just for a second, here's the old lows back in here. And we're gonna look at this candle right here. And look at the close, okay, wants to close in here,
37 00:07:22,470 --> 00:07:32,640 because that's what I'm focusing on the body of that candle 138 66 and a half. Okay, so 138 66 and a half. If we're coming up to that level, what level we're
38 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:44,340 gonna be focusing on 138 6138 65. That's how we run our low levels to institutional. Alright, so here we are back here. And now, since we had this
39 00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:55,200 short term high, that I was anticipating really, the market to go lower. And again, I did not want to fade the higher timeframe momentum. So this move here,
40 00:07:55,560 --> 00:08:04,650 while I was talking about on Twitter, saying we could probably make this run on this low here. And removal of here. It's not a trade I was looking to take. And
41 00:08:04,650 --> 00:08:13,440 it didn't break down. It started to go down a little bit, but then it came back up and snapped through it. So in here, price rally again. So while I was looking
42 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:22,890 for as a retracement back, I wanted to see it come back down in. And I actually missed an ideal scenario actually get into it a little bit better. So let's use
43 00:08:22,890 --> 00:08:36,630 it on an expansion basis. We already had a swing low form here. So I'm okay with so anticipated, at least I run up into that 130 65. So with 138 65 is the draw
44 00:08:37,230 --> 00:08:47,130 138 50 even would have been really easy to get to. And that's what I was trying to aim for, for a little bit of a scalp. And we ended up blowing through it a
45 00:08:47,130 --> 00:08:57,960 lot more. In all this move here. I was not able to participate in any of that. I missed all that stuff. So the highest expectation I had for today's intraday
46 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:09,030 range was 138 50. And I thought overnight, we would probably see something like this going into London, and maybe even have a little bit higher move trade in
47 00:09:09,030 --> 00:09:14,760 New York, but we didn't get so nonetheless, I was looking for that expansion
48 00:09:16,230 --> 00:09:26,070 saw the expansion but ended up getting way more inside of the price action than I first thought would get in today's daily range. And we can see how the market
49 00:09:26,070 --> 00:09:37,770 has now responded off of that. So watch in here. Okay, in a nice little rally up we retrace now. This is the level I want to watch going forward. Now by the time
50 00:09:37,770 --> 00:09:46,500 you get this video, which is good because I don't want you going on my commentary as trade advice because it's not meant to do that. It's just to
51 00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:54,240 stimulate your thinking. So this is a potential order block and here, it could trade down through the low and then we would have to watch this one here and I
52 00:09:54,240 --> 00:10:03,090 already know what some of you're thinking well which one do I use Michael in the mentorship I go over the ones that You'll look for, but I'm giving you free
53 00:10:03,870 --> 00:10:16,050 tutorial level content here. So just be happy with that. Okay, so in here, this might get a reaction. And where we look for is we want to see potentially a run
54 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:29,880 up into, let's see, we could see the 139 big figure right in here that could be retested right there. Okay, so that's a nice little level to look for. So if we
55 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:37,620 get a bounce in here, you can study this, in hindsight, or if you get to the end time, is still hanging around down here, you can just pay for trading idea, do
56 00:10:37,620 --> 00:10:46,230 not put my money on this. Don't, don't do that. Okay, it's not what I'm doing here, I want you to kind of like, weigh out which one of these levels gives you
57 00:10:46,230 --> 00:10:55,500 a reaction, neither one of them may even factor in do that, because that's the nature of things like I got stopped out on my eurodollar trade yesterday, I had
58 00:10:55,500 --> 00:11:05,610 to go back and do it again. But long short, this may be a catalyst for a little bit of a bounce up into 39, big figure, what would be nice is the trade up
59 00:11:05,610 --> 00:11:15,120 through that 138 65 level, come back, find some support there, remember that weekly, low, and then reach back up in here and hit that 139 day figure, maybe
60 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:27,450 even tag 139 10? Just to get through that big figure one more time as a sweep? And then what we do between? And then price goes, who knows? And that's gonna be
61 00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:39,780 it for forex. I want to go over to crypto, I promise I'd go over that real quick. Alright, so we have Bitcoin here. And we traded below the 12,000. Mark.
62 00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:50,610 And I said, if we got below 12,000, we would trade below 10,000. We did get below 10,000. Trade a little low of see what that is? That's 9017 thinking, yep.
63 00:11:50,610 --> 00:12:04,320 9017 was the low on this particular cryptocurrency. And we have a little bit of a bounce in here. Now, I don't personally feel again, this is from a stance that
64 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:15,450 I don't have any skin in the race on this, like so I can be very objective about my opinion, and why I feel that certain things may not happen because I don't
65 00:12:15,450 --> 00:12:24,930 have any skin in the race. Okay. And some of you may say, Well, you know, really, your opinion shouldn't be considered because you're not actively trading
66 00:12:24,930 --> 00:12:35,130 it in, I guess, in some way, shape or form. I would agree. But I'm just supplying it because I'm asked for it. But I would say this, because I don't
67 00:12:35,130 --> 00:12:44,430 have anything in the race. I'm objective about what I see in price. folks that are you holding on for dear life, they're only going to want to see what
68 00:12:45,390 --> 00:12:54,930 satisfies that urge to justify being in there holding on to it long enough, pretty much challenge all of you since the first or second week of December, in
69 00:12:54,930 --> 00:13:02,970 regards to why I don't think that's actually a good idea. And you can see where we went to. So I'm not here trying to tell you, I told you so type thing, I just
70 00:13:03,330 --> 00:13:13,200 think that it's probably beneficial to listen to someone that doesn't have anything in it to lose. So that way, I really don't. I don't trade it. I don't
71 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:23,400 want to trade it in the future either. So I don't have anything really to gain from it. Except for studying whether or not my materials either in price action
72 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:31,980 or it's not. So far I've seen it. And I think I've pretty much illustrated that to a tee. Do I see it as a buy? Personally, I would if I was trading this type
73 00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:40,860 of market, I would not be buying it now. But that's not an advertisement for you to follow me in, in what I would do or wouldn't do. And the same, because I'm
74 00:13:40,860 --> 00:13:49,590 asked this is what I'm thinking, because I'm actively trading it. And I'm not telling you what to do with your money. It's just my opinion. So
75 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:59,940 do I think it's going to go lower? I think it can. And I think it will ultimately want to reach down into the 1000 to 5000. Mark. I think we're all so
76 00:13:59,940 --> 00:14:09,000 mentally where we're going to reach for what's the timeframe for that? I don't know, I really don't know, at this point, it's already hit the levels that I
77 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:18,570 would feel comfortable with trading it. Now it might get really crazy, and it could have all kinds of spiky moves. And it would be really, you know,
78 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:28,230 uncharacteristic for me to be operating in something like that. So at this moment, I would be on the sidelines and when neither look for the go lower rate
79 00:14:28,260 --> 00:14:38,190 from here or go higher, I would be neutral. And those instances sometimes occur in my analysis. And it's, you know, it sounds like well, you should know, well,
80 00:14:38,190 --> 00:14:45,690 no, you shouldn't know all the time you're not going to so I know when I'm looking for something. If those elements are not in price action, then I have to
81 00:14:45,690 --> 00:14:53,130 wait for those things to come to fruition if they don't materialize and there's nothing I can do. I don't want to be gambling. I don't want to give you advice
82 00:14:53,130 --> 00:15:06,210 about studying and practicing price action that won't be fruitful for you. Okay, let's take a look at risk. And we will be done. So let's go here to ripple. And
83 00:15:06,210 --> 00:15:17,460 here we go. Alright, so we had several levels here, breach on the downside, identified around below these lows in here, and it basically the 90 level. And
84 00:15:17,460 --> 00:15:24,960 we had that sweet down to two times. And then now we have a little bit of a pop in here saying question here, do I think it's going to go higher? No, I don't
85 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:36,660 think it would be a buy for you studying in price action. Again, it's not. It's not civilization for you to go in buying or shorting anything I'm saying, but I
86 00:15:36,660 --> 00:15:46,440 still see a market maker. So model here. And the way I see it is is we have consolidation in here. Price has left it come back down into it rallied away, re
87 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:55,980 accumulation, smartly reversal, lower sell distribution, redistribution where I said it was gonna happen. And we're down here in the original consolidation
88 00:15:55,980 --> 00:16:03,810 again. So I think we're seeing just a rally one more time, just to create another opportunity to sell off and go down below 60 cents. And I know that
89 00:16:03,810 --> 00:16:13,890 probably doesn't feel good to hear that. But that's my opinion. Okay, so what's the timeframe for that? Again, I don't know. But I do not believe that. It's
90 00:16:13,890 --> 00:16:23,400 something that you should be buying and holding on to for dear life. If it were me, I wouldn't be doing it. Now. I'm only speaking from the stance of a paper
91 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:32,160 trader or a demo traitor, for the purpose of studying price action. So take it for what it's worth, which is absolutely nothing. Okay. It's not trading advice.
92 00:16:32,310 --> 00:16:41,520 It's for you, to stimulate you in terms of your decision making and your studying practices. And hopefully, that's going to be good enough for today. And
93 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:53,100 until I talk to you again, I wish you good luck, good trading. Today, I'm trying to kind of close that window for folks that are looking to sign up. There has
94 00:16:53,100 --> 00:17:00,690 been a hiccup with all the emails I've been trying to send out because the platform I used like this continue to ask for a refund for the service I
95 00:17:00,690 --> 00:17:09,630 explained. And I shared the emails you guys sent me saying the links weren't working. So they were very helpful in that regard. So I use a different
96 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:20,460 services, MailChimp, which I know it sounds funny, but actually seems pretty easy to use. So that's what I'm using right now to get everyone that's looking
97 00:17:20,460 --> 00:17:29,730 to get the enrollment done for January, if you can't be a part of the January enrollment. It's not closing, it's just giving me a window opportunity to get
98 00:17:29,730 --> 00:17:37,470 these people in the group. And then again, the second week of February, I'll open up enrollment again, for folks that couldn't get in January. And every
99 00:17:37,470 --> 00:17:44,340 month we'll do the same way. Same thing, usually like the second week of it each month, that'll give me an opportunity to get folks that want to come into the
100 00:17:44,340 --> 00:17:51,480 mentorship, they can join, it just means you'll be one or two months behind whenever it's you know, your starting point, just that's how far you'll behind
101 00:17:52,230 --> 00:18:00,480 from everyone else in front of you. Alright, so don't feel like you're being kept out or locked out or missing the boat. And just trying to do small little,
102 00:18:00,540 --> 00:18:08,760 there's a lot of you want to come in. And I had a lot of you respond. But thankfully, only several 100 of you are actually on the list right now that
103 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:16,890 might change because you're Johnny come lately waiting to the last minute. But I want to make sure that everyone is in because tomorrow, I'm actually sending out
104 00:18:16,890 --> 00:18:26,730 the digital signatures you have to sign when I get those digital signatures back that you agree to the terms of use, and that refund policy. All of the things
105 00:18:26,730 --> 00:18:34,470 that go along with the service. Understand that it's teaching price action, it's not trade advice. We do demo account only. When you agree all that stuff. When I
106 00:18:34,470 --> 00:18:42,630 get that back in a digital signature, then I respond back to that with the instructions to send payment to me. Okay, that's the process and how it goes. So
107 00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:46,530 if let's answer your question, and until I talk to you next time, I wish you good luck and good trading