ICT YT - 2018-01-08 - ICT January 2018 NFP - Fiber and Cable Practice.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:18,630 --> 00:00:30,600 ICT: Alright, folks, it's non farm payroll Friday, not for professionals. So I have my full screen shown here. So you guys can see the time and all that
2 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:45,510 business. Here's that same demo account that I said to keep track of that number for savings isn't going to change. The market looks like it may want to drive
3 00:00:45,810 --> 00:01:03,180 under this low here. But not before coming up in here. I like this order block right here. So I thinking that price will want to hit that.
4 00:01:09,030 --> 00:01:22,440 Maybe hit that and then come down and take the stops here. So the idea is use non farm payroll to rally at first thinking it's gonna break out higher, and
5 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,290 then sync it down and take the stops at 3520.
6 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,180 Okay, and we're about to do that now.
7 00:01:49,980 --> 00:01:59,490 similar words, this is going to be a short, or run down here for about 50 pips or so. Now, I would never take this trade with live money, because it's not on
8 00:01:59,490 --> 00:02:10,170 payroll numbers and anything can happen. Worst case scenario it could whip through. Now, if this was a non payroll, I'm sorry, I'm not even no words. If it
9 00:02:10,170 --> 00:02:23,520 wasn't non farm payroll analyses using this example here, I would look for sell here and use a 30 PIP stop to it would be well above here. But I think the draw
10 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,560 is going to be on the low.
11 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:55,020 Here's your run. Here's your order block. Again, it would be above your stock will be above this high. Here's your old high back here on the daily.
12 00:03:21,900 --> 00:03:38,070 So 3599. That's where the stock would be 30 pips above from that level here. We've already punched through these highs. And we'll see if there's any give
13 00:03:38,070 --> 00:03:49,500 back to make a run for the liquidity risk falling below the low on euro. See we're approaching it equal high, and we'll probably see it trade back down, make
14 00:03:49,500 --> 00:03:55,770 it lower low on the day. And we watching for that 2020 level. What's the downside objective
15 00:04:02,850 --> 00:04:16,440 given the nature of non farm payroll is to run, take out the side that's easiest to knock off. In other words, we've seen market making lower moves today. So
16 00:04:16,470 --> 00:04:27,690 there obviously are people short. So there's two ways of using that information. If it were not a non farm payroll Friday, the run back up here to get to this
17 00:04:27,690 --> 00:04:42,270 bearish order block go short there or run the buy stops on those individuals that are short. They don't need to go very high above this high to run their
18 00:04:42,270 --> 00:04:51,300 stops. And then reject and go lower and reach for 35 2035 big figure and maybe even down to 3495
19 00:05:54,360 --> 00:06:04,170 Never concern myself with the actual numbers because the numbers themselves are already factored in. They're actually old data, it is making it public. And they
20 00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:08,070 use those numbers as a smokescreen to run out liquidity.
21 00:07:21,510 --> 00:07:25,650 Notice the unwillingness to go above 35 at of any significance.
22 00:07:51,990 --> 00:08:02,070 So they had high initially on day three got to midnight, New York time, failing to get to 35 at institutional level at levels, a good nice number for
23 00:08:02,070 --> 00:08:11,070 institutions and power orders in and around, they sold off, they come all the way back up now this to hit the 35 at level now, which also effectively takes
24 00:08:11,070 --> 00:08:25,410 out to buy stuff on any holders that were short. So the idea is that cables been going up for a while. And anyone that has been profitable shorting this morning,
25 00:08:25,950 --> 00:08:33,570 they are not allowed to be profitable. So non farm payrolls used to upset those orders. And they take those individuals out
26 00:08:53,910 --> 00:09:08,640 few minutes past the release of non farm. Now, if it were a non event, like it was non farm payroll, not included in today's calendar, I would be short right
27 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:15,420 now. I wish I would be short at this moment where we're at here.
28 00:09:22,020 --> 00:09:36,060 So that would be my short. I'm not wasting my demo because I want to keep it clean with actual demo executions, but I'm just giving you a pay per trade idea.
29 00:09:36,660 --> 00:09:39,210 So I'm demoing on a demo.
30 00:09:44,370 --> 00:09:56,880 But you guys see that same account the account history. I've been doing trades recently. So it's been a few days since it's been done but that's where I'm at,
31 00:09:57,450 --> 00:10:12,240 to go back and look at my other screenshots and recordings, you'll see that that balance matches, nothing's changed. And that's a dual accountability folks.
32 00:10:12,870 --> 00:10:19,950 Nothing to be afraid of, and nothing to be fearful of, unless you're losing. And people don't want to see that.
33 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:41,970 I'm typically on the sidelines till the third Tuesday. So I was waiting for the first two weeks of trade through on every year in January. And then I pick up my
34 00:10:41,970 --> 00:10:52,770 actual interest in actual entries and such on the third Tuesday of every January, and then I go light, like a very, very light on leverage. And I just go
35 00:10:52,770 --> 00:10:54,150 very, very slow.
36 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:10,950 I go very, very slow, with the amount of leverage until I get into February. And once I get into February, then I start working towards a normalized amount of
37 00:11:10,950 --> 00:11:19,050 leverage. And by the fifth of February, I should be in the thick of things.
38 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:47,400 Again, note the unwillingness to want to go above 3580. We just went above these initial daily highs. And the theme is, markets been going higher, or cable, we
39 00:11:47,400 --> 00:12:00,720 priced in a little bit of a rally in here, built a premium in on price and they sank it going into London, they ran it up, took the stops out about the initial
40 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:11,640 high of the day. And I would be looking for this thing to start working its way lower. Now because it's Friday, we could see a rather lackluster event as well,
41 00:12:12,180 --> 00:12:20,460 you could just go right back to the middle of the range. And this is how you do that. Okay, assuming that this high is the high of the day, this is something
42 00:12:20,460 --> 00:12:32,250 you do over the day. So equilibrium is right around here. So we could consolidate between 3555 and 3550. If it doesn't drop, I just don't see it going
43 00:12:32,250 --> 00:12:34,740 higher and making higher highs of any significance.
44 00:13:10,500 --> 00:13:19,080 I'm not sure I can't recall if I mentioned that or not. But I mentioned that I would I would be selling shorts. It was not nonfarm payroll Friday, at this
45 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:30,060 level here, and I would simply use a 20 PIP stop. By because 20 pips above this high, I'm already above that. So I don't think that 20 pips is going to be
46 00:13:30,060 --> 00:13:40,110 necessary. They ran it right to that level, right on the heels of the release of the non farm payroll numbers. So I'd only be looking for a move lower. So if it
47 00:13:40,110 --> 00:13:51,450 was not a run on those by stops, yet, then I would use like a 30 PIP stop loss. But because we've already essentially taken out device stops above that high. I
48 00:13:51,450 --> 00:13:55,320 can just go 20 pips above my entry, which would be hypothetically here.
49 00:14:06,870 --> 00:14:14,400 And some of you, you're probably wondering, well, if it goes down here and hits that 3520 level, why didn't you take the trade? It would be in you know, in your
50 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:22,920 account history, because it's not a day that I actually trade. And I'm practicing what I preach. I try to tell people don't even practice in your demo
51 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:32,190 one, and certainly don't want to trade with live funds, or non farm payrolls Friday, because the casino ride, it's a carnival ride. It's it's absolutely.
52 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:43,050 It's sometimes very volatile. And you might know what side of the marketplace it wants to run for, but doesn't necessarily mean it's going to go the opposite
53 00:14:43,050 --> 00:14:55,290 direction right away either. So it can be really problematic for someone that wants to know, a direction. The theme of this particular event is take the stops
54 00:14:55,860 --> 00:15:04,350 both sides of the marketplace if it's if it can be done. They'll take both sides. But I view non farm payroll as a means of upsetting the ones that are
55 00:15:04,350 --> 00:15:14,580 going to stand to make the most money, post non farm payroll words, think of it as a Judas swing.
56 00:15:30,090 --> 00:15:57,390 Now this portion of the video, I'm going to let it record, but it's going to be sped up sounds, we'll make a note of that video speed increased now. So that way
57 00:15:57,510 --> 00:16:12,240 you guys know that what I'm doing is not any audio, I'm not talking right now I can't fill in the gaps later on. Okay, so once I stopped talking, it'll just be
58 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:21,060 recording the price action and then I'll come back when I take this off, then it'll be real time and then we'll assess what's already happened. But I think
59 00:16:21,090 --> 00:16:22,440 ultimately, it's going to go down below
60 00:16:23,160 --> 00:17:56,520 here. Okay, so I would be taking my stop down to plus five
61 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:08,370 in taking partial profits here. This is going to act as my stop.
62 00:18:14,130 --> 00:18:30,060 Now I'd be banking 75% 80% of the position and leaving the rest on the see if I can get this stop around here to this was my hypothetical entry, but the high
63 00:18:31,770 --> 00:18:44,760 order block retreated back to that. And now we've seen some acceleration on the downside, we do have a little bit of a water block in here, cable reach
64 00:18:44,790 --> 00:18:56,130 equilibrium, which is what I measured earlier. So that's what I'm saying I would take that 75 80% off in this area here. That would be banked about 30 pips or so
65 00:18:57,300 --> 00:19:19,560 and a stop at plus five. So allow me to have a chance see if any further erosion on price to get to that low. ideal scenario is for it to run to it before
66 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:30,240 10am 10:30am New York time. The longer it waits and lags, the less likely it will do that and will probably just stay right in the middle of the range for
67 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:37,290 the rest of the day. So I'll go back into speeding the video up now.
68 00:21:40,019 --> 00:21:49,499 Alright folks, as you can see it's 11 o'clock in the morning, New York time. So I would be killing the trade here. Any open profits on my demo position would be
69 00:21:49,919 --> 00:22:00,329 taken and any open position will be closed so there won't be any more likelihood for downside movement. And I'll just let you guys pan out the rest of the day
70 00:22:00,329 --> 00:22:04,649 and see what has transpired but I will be out based on London close time parameters.