ICT YT - 2018-01-04 - ICT January 04 2018.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:18,390 --> 00:00:32,670 ICT: Good afternoon folks. So not too much to talk about for demo account for x. So we're going to talk about the ripple versus the Dollar. I've been actively
2 00:00:32,670 --> 00:00:45,750 following this cryptocurrency. And notice I said, Follow, I did not trade it. So everything I'm saying, Here's really just an opinion. It's not trade advice. I'm
3 00:00:45,750 --> 00:00:57,390 personally not interested in actually trading it. I'm studying it actively, as I admitted on my Twitter account. I've been following ripple, Litecoin, and
4 00:00:58,050 --> 00:01:13,650 Bitcoin. So I know there's a lot of fever about these markets right now. And anything moving draws a attention of everyone. And obviously, he's got my
5 00:01:13,650 --> 00:01:24,180 attention now. But I guess I'm not in this. And the things I'm going to say here, not advice. Nothing I ever say his advice is always on a demo account
6 00:01:24,210 --> 00:01:36,240 setting for that reason. It's just really meant to stimulate your thinking. And whatever happens is, you know, ultimately, your responsibility. So if you do
7 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:44,250 anything acting on any of these insights that I'm sharing, from an opinion standpoint, you know, I don't want to credit for it. And I certainly don't want
8 00:01:44,250 --> 00:01:54,300 here to grief about it if you've lost money trading these, these markets, because I personally am not in them. And I just want to study what I look at, in
9 00:01:54,300 --> 00:02:03,870 technical analysis that I do in demo account setting for forex, those concepts I share publicly, are they happening in the crypto markets. And as you can see
10 00:02:03,870 --> 00:02:20,430 here, some of the levels, I've shared them pretty influential in terms of this crypto this morning, just want to go over here, pull this back up. I tweeted, an
11 00:02:20,430 --> 00:02:35,010 article here from daily FX. And the title was the rise and rise of alt coins. Now, this actually is the same type of heading that I was reading with Bitcoin.
12 00:02:35,850 --> 00:02:49,350 Just before December. And you know what happened in December? You know, I was talking rather candidly about how we wouldn't see 20,000 in 2017. And the very
13 00:02:49,350 --> 00:02:59,340 day that I said it, and why should slide we ended up making a high in Bitcoin. Well, there's actually a movie or documentary, at least when I go through my
14 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:10,650 cable provider, they're saying online, own domain rather, program have not sat down and watched it. So if you know what I'm referring to when it says the rise
15 00:03:10,650 --> 00:03:19,830 and rise of Bitcoin? I'm not sure I'm assuming it's a documentary. But if it isn't, you know, whatever it is, the title grabbed me this morning when I saw
16 00:03:19,830 --> 00:03:31,350 this headline, because this is same type of thing I saw right before Bitcoin top. So whenever there's a headline campaign, or whenever there's a very
17 00:03:31,350 --> 00:03:45,000 emotionally charged or directionally focused headline campaign, it generally works to be contrarian to what would be seen, like for instance, if you look at
18 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:57,030 this, the rise and rise of alt coins, when when the average person reads that it inspires and entices those individuals reading it, to assume that it's what a
19 00:03:57,030 --> 00:04:08,340 good buy or good sell, obviously, it's implying that it's bullish, without saying so. So I mentioned that this morning. And I actually shared a couple
20 00:04:08,340 --> 00:04:21,900 things on Twitter by way of charts. And one of the objectives, you know, was, obviously the three hour mark. And then, as random as it may seem here, the $3
21 00:04:21,900 --> 00:04:31,890 and 30 cent mark, and these were highlighted in put in Twitter beforehand. I did not go through the trouble going through Twitter to actually find the tweets.
22 00:04:32,190 --> 00:04:44,520 And you can go find it yourself on January 4 2018. And you'll see that it's basically updating tweets that posted several days ago, and noted that 170
23 00:04:44,550 --> 00:04:56,070 buyers would be looking to see that level, the recapitalizing or accumulating new long positions. That's based on simply just an optimal trade entry, and
24 00:04:56,070 --> 00:05:04,950 finding a bullish order block. It's all used for that analysis in the market. consolidated casino and optimal trade entry here, another ones in here. And we
25 00:05:04,950 --> 00:05:16,200 had one in here. And price went to the three hour mark came back down another optimal trade entry here, taking us right up into $3 and 30.
26 00:05:16,530 --> 00:05:17,010 level.
27 00:05:18,810 --> 00:05:30,150 The high comes in at Surrey 31.7. So for a market that I don't really follow too much, that's pretty accurate. And you can see the response since then. Now, I
28 00:05:30,150 --> 00:05:38,730 did tweet that if I were in this market, in a demo account setting again, I'm not trading with live money. You guys see how I take partial profits? In my demo
29 00:05:38,730 --> 00:05:49,020 account for forex? I mentioned that I would be 80% out of the position when it hits $3. And then when went up to here, and that would be obviously what a level
30 00:05:49,020 --> 00:05:59,730 to take profit as well. So if you only had 20%, on from here, how much you gonna take off here? What would what would hit been been for you? Would you take off
31 00:05:59,730 --> 00:06:10,710 10%? Would you take all of it off, take 5% 15% on wait for these other levels I shared because it had, if it had legs to continue 350 would have been objective,
32 00:06:10,710 --> 00:06:23,910 I've been looking forward and 370 and ultimately 380. That's what this love was highlighting here. But I indicated on Twitter, take a look at ripple. And what
33 00:06:23,910 --> 00:06:38,130 we were doing was we were trading back up into an old area of distribution. So if we look at this series of green candles here, this is actually one complete
34 00:06:38,130 --> 00:06:48,330 bearish order block. Okay, so this is a 30 minute chart, half of that range would be approximately right here. So we were trading back about the midpoint of
35 00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:59,310 that, or what I teach is the mean threshold. Typically, they'll act as a kind of a hidden resistance in this case, because it's a bearish order block and prices
36 00:06:59,310 --> 00:07:11,430 now since broke. Now he did take this low out now that's much more meaningful. And it's also a ICT bearish breaker. So the down closed candle right before a
37 00:07:11,460 --> 00:07:22,860 new high with previous highs taken, then it breaks down. That becomes a bearish pattern. You can see price trades on this upclose candle here, nails into it
38 00:07:22,860 --> 00:07:33,960 there and then trades lower as you would expect for an ice breaker. Where do I think it's going to go? Well, we do have this high here in this high here. From
39 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:45,060 a from a market structure standpoint, this may provide a near term support level and it's probably what we're going to see $2.40 if it bounces there, it's going
40 00:07:45,060 --> 00:07:56,130 to have to get through this breaker for me to go back to looking for it to be bullish again. It's just too many things. In the storylines, it's really built
41 00:07:56,130 --> 00:08:05,190 in a premium. So it's costly right now. And a lot of people are probably seeing this. And you know, if it's going to be going higher, longer term, it's going to
42 00:08:05,190 --> 00:08:15,360 want to go lower first. Okay, because it's had a really good run. Let's see if I can zoom out here, you can see that I gave several examples prior to all that.
43 00:08:16,980 --> 00:08:44,070 And yeah, read in here. ahead and objective to reach for that 120 level. And we got that and sold off. And I was wrong about it going down to 65, it only went
44 00:08:44,070 --> 00:08:58,380 down to the low was 67. So I was off a little bit there. I thought they would hit the 65 level again before going higher. So did tweet that just for
45 00:08:58,680 --> 00:09:07,230 disclosure sake, I don't want to sound like I'm only pulling out the sugar. There's some vinegar there too. But you can see we've had some real nice nice
46 00:09:07,230 --> 00:09:18,180 distribution at the three hour and 30 cent mark on ripple. And I shared that with you before the fact everything was worked out in Twitter, in chart form, so
47 00:09:18,180 --> 00:09:24,660 you can see the levels I was looking for. And it's all just picking out key price levels, and then studying and seeing to get the reaction off of it. If you
48 00:09:24,660 --> 00:09:32,670 get the reaction then you go in with the technicals that I teach by way of a demo account. And you practice and you practice and practice until you get good
49 00:09:32,670 --> 00:09:45,450 at reading price. This is not my asset class of choice. But I'm encouraged as a technician that studies price action in other asset classes like stocks and
50 00:09:45,510 --> 00:09:55,980 commodities and forex. I look for things in price action to give me clues to build an opinion and I love watching how price develops as a result of that. And
51 00:09:55,980 --> 00:10:06,330 I'm really fascinated to see the things that I teach start seeing in the price action of these cryptocurrency states, it's really, you know, fascinating for me
52 00:10:06,420 --> 00:10:13,950 to see the very things that students that study my stuff, through forex and applied it to crypto,
53 00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:25,110 I can see why they're excited. And it's really fascinating to see it be as precise as you everyone else has told me it was. Me, I'm used to seeing it being
54 00:10:25,110 --> 00:10:35,100 precise in regards to demoing, on forex, and on futures. But, like I said, I've never really actively looked at for crypto until just recently. So we've seen
55 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:43,770 some really nice examples of that, or at least I have, I mean, most of you would have been using it really longer than I have. But you've convinced me along with
56 00:10:43,770 --> 00:10:54,480 a family member. So it should we get down to $2.40, it would need again, to get back above the breaker here. So I think any rally up from there, it's going to
57 00:10:54,480 --> 00:11:05,460 be met with some measure resistance could come back up here and and try to touch this bearish order block here. And that would also be another resistance idea at
58 00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:15,870 that $3 mark. So it says make it simple, it needs to get back above three hours before I would be a buyer again, that means I would lose any portion of price
59 00:11:15,870 --> 00:11:23,340 action above this high here on initial run. Now just wait for it to retrace for an optimal trade entry. And I would start picking it up there and falling it on
60 00:11:23,340 --> 00:11:31,320 a pay per trade basis there. So I'm going very clear, this is not trading advice. This is my personal observations, what I would expect now should $2.40
61 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:38,940 break and get away. We have liquidity resting right below this low here. Why am I picking this one because the most dynamic response off of it. So the average
62 00:11:38,970 --> 00:11:48,810 eye or retail mind is going to see that low as the most favorable support level. Because it's found support there and repelled price away, we have a smaller one
63 00:11:48,810 --> 00:11:58,530 here, I'm not so excited about that one, because it's just below this old high. So I think it's going to go that low, it's going to seek a little bit lower
64 00:11:58,530 --> 00:12:07,170 liquidity pool, and I think it's gonna be this one here. So we would have to watch that $2 mark. So it could be a nice decent range to work within your
65 00:12:07,170 --> 00:12:16,500 practice if it goes below 240 $2. And then we could trade back up to around a $3 mark. And what we do beyond that would have to be seen for me to be bullish. But
66 00:12:16,500 --> 00:12:24,660 it certainly if we get down to $2, that could be a bounce idea for it to get up to here. Or if this range stays intact, it could be a return back to this
67 00:12:24,660 --> 00:12:33,300 bearish order block here in the $2 and 80 cent mark. Okay, so several levels in the watch. And it sounds rather ambiguous. It wasn't as clean as the levels I
68 00:12:33,300 --> 00:12:41,430 was giving you here as we marched up. But that's how trading is. So that's why it's important to trade in a demo account and learn to see what your setup is.
69 00:12:42,060 --> 00:12:51,510 And you'll find it by seeing price action over and over again, seeing how it's formed in the past. And then watching these levels and see if those setups form.
70 00:12:51,570 --> 00:13:00,840 If there's those form at the level that you've already predetermined that may form a setup, then you have, at least in my opinion, more likely odds of your
71 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:11,760 study in your demo, painting out to a favor welcome. So I'm not sure is there even a demo account for you guys that know about crypto better than idea? Is
72 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:20,190 there a demo account that you can trade crypto on? I'd like to be able to do something with that as well. You guys, if you don't mind to tweet me something
73 00:13:20,220 --> 00:13:28,290 in regards to that, I'd appreciate it. And Bitcoin. I'm neutral on I mentioned this before, initially, I was looking for
74 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:39,360 price to respect, if I'm not mistaken this range in here. And we were in here and I said that we would probably look for a lower low, we've consolidated and
75 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:50,010 then we punch back above the 15 100 level. And I said that would be a callus back here to be bullish. We had consolidated. I don't want to see that if it
76 00:13:50,010 --> 00:14:00,060 trades back up to 15. One that way, I don't like it. That's why I tweeted, I'm neutral on Bitcoin. Okay, and we've seen it consolidate further in here. I'd
77 00:14:00,060 --> 00:14:10,200 like to see it really try to make a run on the liquidity below the marketplace. I'm not terribly bullish in here, I think that like I said, if this currency, or
78 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:18,780 cryptocurrency is going to go higher, they're gonna want to take the the long holders out, okay, and there's liquidity below these equal lows here and below
79 00:14:18,780 --> 00:14:28,140 this oh well as well. So this could be very easily punched through made equal highs, it could go up there and run that turtle soup sell, faded and go lower
80 00:14:28,170 --> 00:14:41,700 and then start working lower end of the range. And they go a run back below that 12,000 level. But I'm not. I'm not convinced that this is a good buy. It doesn't
81 00:14:41,700 --> 00:14:50,370 look like accumulation in here at all. Even though we can map out all kinds of optimal trade entries here. I don't view it as bullish. I think there's an
82 00:14:50,370 --> 00:15:00,480 underlying tone to Bitcoin right now. That's going to be problematic for the bulls. Now obviously, I got new skin in the race here so I can be a pain Because
83 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:09,930 it causes me no harm if I'm wrong, but I'm being honest with you in regards to how I use the tools and concepts that I work with. And I personally, me
84 00:15:09,930 --> 00:15:18,780 personally don't see something in here as a buy. If I was trading this with my own demo account, or if I had real money in it, I wouldn't be doing anything
85 00:15:18,780 --> 00:15:27,150 with it at all. I wouldn't be doing anything at all, my attention would be really focused back on ripple. And I would be actively following that one.
86 00:15:27,780 --> 00:15:37,500 Because I think there's levels I mentioned earlier are going to be significant going forward. Okay. So I'm not sure if this was any value to you. Like I said,
87 00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:46,980 I'm learning this crypto stuff as I go. I spend a little bit of time with it each day. And so far, it's been a really interesting study on my own. I like
88 00:15:47,700 --> 00:15:58,080 what I've found in price action, like the responsiveness that one would expect, using the stuff I teach in demo for forex. So I'm going to continue plowing away
89 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:07,440 at it and see if I can gain any more better understanding about it. And so hopefully, I'll be more insightful for you guys to actually trade it. Again, I'm
90 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:21,510 not trying to provide you advice, but I'm just going to agree. Okay. If you asked if this is a an ICT concept and a chart, yeah, I cannot say yeah, I can
91 00:16:21,510 --> 00:16:30,750 see that. But I don't ever want you to take that as a investment advice or enticement to do something with real money. Because Personally, I'm not invested
92 00:16:30,750 --> 00:16:41,670 in this stuff. I'm not really actively trading it, I don't have any money at risk. And it would be unfair for me to try to give you that image, okay, or
93 00:16:41,670 --> 00:16:50,430 portray that, because I'm not really in it. But I am personally studying it as I teach everyone to do with forex. In a demo, study, study study, I'm doing that
94 00:16:50,430 --> 00:16:59,490 same thing. Without the capacity of a demo account. I'm just paper trading and studying it with just technicals written on a chart. And I'm saving the charts
95 00:16:59,490 --> 00:17:07,800 and I'm keeping these as reminders of the things that I look for in price action, other asset classes. They materialize or they have been to this point
96 00:17:07,890 --> 00:17:19,980 materializing in crypto. So until tomorrow, it's non farm payroll Friday, I will probably share my opinions about what I think the market will seek before the
97 00:17:19,980 --> 00:17:27,780 numbers come out tomorrow. Again, that's not a trade advice. It's not enticement to take a trade. This is my opinion about what I think they'll run for four stop
98 00:17:27,780 --> 00:17:36,450 running. And apart from that, I would be on the sidelines. If you were reading in the market for real trades, live money. I wouldn't be doing it now teach
99 00:17:36,450 --> 00:17:42,930 against that anyway. So not for professionals. That's what NFP stands for with us until then, which Good luck and good trading.