ICT YT - 2018-01-03 - ICT January 03 2018.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:17,820 --> 00:00:27,450 ICT: Well, Happy New Year, folks, welcome to 2018. This is the first episode, the internal trader on YouTube. So we've been looking at the cables is British
2 00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:36,900 Pound USD. Now this pairs hindsight, I didn't do anything with this pair. But this is what I do, I'm showing you how I do it. During the time of the year when
3 00:00:36,900 --> 00:00:47,550 I'm not active, I still am very much interested in what price has been doing. So I always look at it after the day closes, mark up the charts and see what
4 00:00:47,610 --> 00:00:58,320 symmetry it all is in the marketplace. I use it for journaling, I use it for staying connected to the price action, even though I'm not going to be actively
5 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:08,730 trading with normal leverage or in normal capacity until usually the third week of January. So I let the first two weeks of January in trade without me. And
6 00:01:08,730 --> 00:01:16,890 then around the third week of January uses Tuesday of that week, then on then and only then I'll look to get engaged price action with with live trades with a
7 00:01:16,890 --> 00:01:26,430 little bit more meaningful leverage that took a very, very small position in the euro dollar. I tweeted that earlier this afternoon. But you see what I'm
8 00:01:26,430 --> 00:01:34,710 referring to in chart form. But I showed you the details with the time of entry and exit and such you can see what it was really, really small position. But I
9 00:01:34,710 --> 00:01:47,430 do that when I think there is something in the chart for me to engage with. But because of the holiday rut that we're coming out of it, I don't trust the price
10 00:01:47,430 --> 00:01:54,930 action, and there's going to be times when the market is going to be screaming and those individuals that hear me say those types of things. Well, you know, I
11 00:01:54,930 --> 00:02:04,230 CTS foolish because look what happened? Well, in my experience, I've been around for a while. Even though being 45 year old and having a rather comfortable life.
12 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:13,500 I've seen a lot of things go wrong this time of year when I try to trade it. So it's up to you whether you want to listen to a person that's been doing a whole
13 00:02:13,500 --> 00:02:22,470 lot longer than you, okay, I'm just telling you, from my personal experience the first couple weeks of January, it's generally not that predictable or precise.
14 00:02:22,500 --> 00:02:29,400 Now there's going to be times when it is and you're going to be lulled into thinking well you know that rules no longer applicable. Well, you can do that
15 00:02:29,430 --> 00:02:38,370 under saying I'm not going to do that. Okay, so I'm trying to tell you how I walk the walk and not just talk the talk. So I want to take your attention to
16 00:02:38,370 --> 00:02:50,340 this old high here. This is a daily chart for the cable rich on USD. And as price started running through this was yesterday. And everyone obviously saw
17 00:02:50,340 --> 00:02:58,560 price go above these highs. And I'm sure everyone was thinking naturally this high was going to be the one that day one run out because of the beginning of
18 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:08,100 the year effect. Okay, so now we're it's it's the January start of a new year. Okay, you can see here we're the time of this recording. It's little after 7pm
19 00:03:08,100 --> 00:03:17,430 New York time, or I am locally, and I live in New York, but I'm on the east coast of the US. So this is my timezone and it's the third of January. So we're
20 00:03:17,430 --> 00:03:27,840 in a fresh year, fresh month. All the sentiment that is generally in play right now tends to be challenged if not completely reversed. Or if it's going to
21 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:37,680 continue usually there's a deep retracement that takes place before it starts to resume. Then we've seen some bullishness on cable, we've now traded to an old
22 00:03:37,710 --> 00:03:50,460 high and through it, it did rather handsomely. But this was also one of the reasons why I liked the euro dollar trade. Let's go down to a 15 minute chart.
23 00:03:50,610 --> 00:03:59,430 And we'll take a look at the cable on an intraday basis. Okay, so then we have a 15 minute timeframe on cable. And this is delineating today's price action. And
24 00:03:59,430 --> 00:04:08,460 I want to draw your attention to several things here. Number one, this is a rather sloppy, but still nonetheless, a market maker sell model, the
25 00:04:08,460 --> 00:04:20,190 consolidation I see right here is what I'm going to mark out for you. Okay, so it's a clear, obvious range. And yes, we have a drop down here, but I'm looking
26 00:04:20,190 --> 00:04:31,710 at price action, creating consolidation in the run out, it returns back to the range, re accumulation know the area of accumulation, it runs out the area of
27 00:04:31,710 --> 00:04:42,000 accumulation and makes the high Smart Money reversal, low risk cell redistribution and it trades back down to what right below the original
28 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:51,090 consolidation. And just for good measure does trade below this low back here the low on this candle and just you know, this is an actual Live account. So it's
29 00:04:51,090 --> 00:04:59,970 not like my forex Ltd demo account. So the data, you're gonna be comparing it, it's going to be slightly skewed. So just be mindful that what I'm showing you
30 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:12,630 Today is a Live account only because it has had seamless price delivery, the demo account for forex Ltd, which is what I usually use for my teaching. It's
31 00:05:12,690 --> 00:05:13,770 missing some data
32 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:25,290 because of the holidays, and they tend to get crappy and really sloppy or with their data couple times a year, but it is what it is. So the logon on this
33 00:05:25,290 --> 00:05:41,370 candle comes in at 134 93.9. And the low on this is 93. Three, so it's definitely went below or not by much, but certainly did exactly what the market
34 00:05:41,370 --> 00:05:51,450 maker model for selling. Okay, in other words, they ramp up price price in a premium, and then sell it off. Okay, that's what we've seen. And this is this
35 00:05:51,810 --> 00:06:00,540 old daily high. Okay, so that old daily high that's at that level is here, 135 48 for this particular datafeed. And I want to draw in a couple things, I
36 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:08,580 want to draw your attention to certain elements. And this is how I mark up the charts. And this is how I print them. And it's not put them in my journal. Now I
37 00:06:08,580 --> 00:06:19,110 add other notes to them that are personal, which I think everyone should have that measure of privacy in your charts. So I won't include everything in here.
38 00:06:19,530 --> 00:06:26,550 But I'll give you enough to give you an example. So we'll be doing this on a day by day basis. And I won't be doing this much jawboning about it, it'll just be
39 00:06:26,550 --> 00:06:34,050 there. I'll talk about it. And it'll be a really short video. But since it's the first video of the year, I got to give you something close to 30 minutes, right.
40 00:06:35,580 --> 00:06:44,910 So we're going to take a look at the Fibonacci on a few things in here, I want you to take a look at this range here. Okay, and I'm going to introduce a
41 00:06:44,910 --> 00:06:51,870 concept that you if you're new to me, there's going to be something neat. Alright, so what we're looking at here is a measurement of the highest and
42 00:06:51,870 --> 00:07:01,260 lowest point of this consolidation. And what makes us a consolidation. It should be obvious when you look at price, when price is creating a box, or a rectangle
43 00:07:01,260 --> 00:07:12,510 in consolidation, and it leaves it it'll be obvious many times after the fact, when you're new. Over time, you'll see these formations and they create
44 00:07:13,020 --> 00:07:20,430 equilibrium. Okay, equilibrium is the midway point in here. So that's what I'm measuring. So I'm measuring the lowest low and the highest high Now usually, you
45 00:07:20,430 --> 00:07:31,920 see me using the Fibonacci, placing it on the highest close or open, near swing high, or near its lowest close or open on a swing low. That's for entry
46 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:40,470 purposes. Now when we're looking at equilibrium, we're looking at the entire or total range, the total range is the highest high and the lowest low. So that
47 00:07:40,470 --> 00:07:49,980 element right here for equilibrium, that's going to be important. So we're gonna draw a line on it, so that we can remove the Fibonacci and work with it in other
48 00:07:49,980 --> 00:07:59,850 parts of the chart. So we have our level here, I'm just going to descend this up a little bit. And give it a different color, something to draw different
49 00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:08,850 contrast. So let's do that. So it's a little bit different. So we're drawing a distinction between the old daily high here, and now we have an equilibrium
50 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:21,210 measurement, which will be used momentarily. So now we have two reference points that are important. We have an old daily high, which we're thinking maybe is a
51 00:08:21,210 --> 00:08:31,140 run above, they're building this premium in or pumping it before they dump it above this daily high. We can also see the element of equal highs in here and
52 00:08:31,140 --> 00:08:43,110 another consolidation, we would expect to see a run above that. Here's the midnight candle. New York time says the New York opening price. Again, it's not
53 00:08:43,110 --> 00:08:52,230 the New York session, it's the ICT, New York open price, okay, what we sit for a trigger mechanism for buying and selling for the daily range for power three
54 00:08:52,230 --> 00:09:01,680 concepts. So we have the opening price here, you extend that out across the day until around one closer so you can see the Judas swing here, curse it rallies
55 00:09:01,680 --> 00:09:16,290 up, takes out equal highs, breaks down comes right back with it retest. The opening price sells off, consolidates right ahead of the equilibrium price point
56 00:09:16,290 --> 00:09:27,090 of this range, okay? And then slices through it aggressively and does not waste any time. Immediately guns for the liquidity resting below the consolidation are
57 00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:34,980 here. And for good measure, it runs out the low here just by a little bit, but any orders that are at that level or just below it spread would get you. Okay,
58 00:09:34,980 --> 00:09:45,360 so we see the market going consolidation again, we'll probably see a trade a little bit lower just for good measure. And I want to talk about a few elements
59 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:56,280 to how you can project this low. Not that this isn't enough because we can use the market maker sell model for specific price levels. But I want to draw your
60 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:09,360 attention back to this consolidation here. And we can see that one third 552 and a half, if we draw a fib, okay, from the hi appear.
61 00:10:11,190 --> 00:10:20,370 Again now because we're working with equilibrium and ranges, you have to use the highest and the lowest price points, these are not entry points, okay? I used
62 00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:30,360 the highest open or closed and the lowest open or closed in a swing point for measuring my actual price entry points. That is not the same thing here. And
63 00:10:30,390 --> 00:10:36,840 please don't be confused or listen to people that don't really have any interest in what I'm teaching, they're going to say, I'm changing the rules. Now I'm
64 00:10:37,110 --> 00:10:45,480 teaching you something entirely different. And amplifying why it's important to use the total range the highest high and the lowest level words, when we're
65 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:53,940 using equilibrium reference points, you have to use the wicks. Now if you're looking for entry price points, you're only focusing on volume, where the most
66 00:10:53,940 --> 00:11:02,910 buying and selling is where you're going to be measuring that with the bodies of the candles, we're not doing that here completely different animal altogether.
67 00:11:03,570 --> 00:11:14,580 So we're using the highest high, and we're going to drag it down. So what I'm looking for is the equal equilibrium price point level on the Fed, which is this
68 00:11:14,580 --> 00:11:22,290 one right here, keep your eye on that. I'm going to drag that down until it lines up with this blue line. And I'll explain it in a minute.
69 00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:41,519 Okay, so now what we have done, we've measured the high and projected all the way down until the equilibrium on the fib lays rate on the equilibrium of this
70 00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:51,299 consolidation, so that we can get a measurement of market symmetry. When this is done, you get a totally different appreciation for market precision that you
71 00:11:51,299 --> 00:12:01,169 can't get from books. Okay. So what you're not getting is the actual low of the day, it doesn't deviate by one, Pip. It doesn't deviate. Short of it, it goes
72 00:12:01,169 --> 00:12:12,149 right to it. These are the elements I like to see come the third week of January. Now, they will not always be this precise, they will not always give
73 00:12:12,149 --> 00:12:21,989 you this measure of symmetry. around these couple days right after the holidays. It just so happens that the things would be there today to warn these types of
74 00:12:22,019 --> 00:12:32,159 deliveries. Now, there are elements in crypto, which is the interbank price delivery algorithm, okay, which creates the high low of the day, all these
75 00:12:32,159 --> 00:12:42,749 things are factored in mathematically. And they have an overlap with fib. There is an application of Fibonacci that I use. And it's not the same thing you see
76 00:12:42,749 --> 00:12:52,649 that's regurgitated among other retail educators and such. Look at a Fibonacci book, study Fibonacci, and you find this in there. Okay, it won't be there. This
77 00:12:52,649 --> 00:13:02,759 is what I do. This is what I teach. Because I have studied it, I've looked at it. I've studied the algorithmic price movement that takes place in forex, and
78 00:13:02,759 --> 00:13:13,829 other markets. And all these things are at salutely. Pre determined, okay. So when you see hallmarks like this, it gets fascinating, you start reaching and
79 00:13:13,859 --> 00:13:23,159 digging in deeper and deeper and deeper. And because I'm obsessively compulsive, I have what would otherwise be viewed as a impediment by other people. It's
80 00:13:23,159 --> 00:13:33,839 actually a asset for me, because I won't let go of something. When I have it. And I smell blood, I'm going after it. So these elements I look for in price
81 00:13:33,839 --> 00:13:42,779 action, I look for points of equilibrium, I look for the models to be there at right now we've outlined enough to justify why this market should have acted the
82 00:13:42,779 --> 00:13:53,519 way it did today. Now, I did not trade this particular pair. I was studying this one. But I wanted to participate in the euro dollar. So let's take a look over
83 00:13:53,519 --> 00:14:06,929 at the euro dollar now. And we'll mark this one up as well. All right, so the euro dollar, same premise we saw yesterday, a big run up in price. Okay, we're
84 00:14:06,929 --> 00:14:17,489 well above this old high here. And I knew in my gut that everyone would be expecting this high to be taken out. What in this run here, we have the high at
85 00:14:17,549 --> 00:14:30,599 120 80.3. And then we have the high here at 120 91. One, okay, so we fell short of it. Everyone else would have been expecting this market high to be taken out,
86 00:14:31,169 --> 00:14:46,379 not me. So what I was looking for. And this was what gave me the the impulse to want to be a seller. What I'm measuring here now because we're looking at entry
87 00:14:46,379 --> 00:14:57,389 points. Now we have to look at this element of the open in the high. In the low arts. What we're looking for is the lowest open or close and the highest open or
88 00:14:57,389 --> 00:15:07,289 close relative to the swings. What I'm measuring is The most volume the actual buying and selling that's occurred by looking at the bodies not the wicks Okay.
89 00:15:08,789 --> 00:15:17,669 Then what I do is I duplicate that range and I add it to the lowest open or close again over here during this retracement and that gives me this high up
90 00:15:17,669 --> 00:15:28,979 here and we saw that high be pierced yesterday so I know we are really really overbought and I didn't need to do any overbought indicator and RSI no Williams
91 00:15:28,979 --> 00:15:40,079 percent are no stochastics MACD, none of those things are necessary. We are absolutely overbought, okay, we're overbought in relative terms to this high. In
92 00:15:40,079 --> 00:15:48,089 this low we are right at the top of the range. So I don't need an indicator to tell me that we are overbought. So if we are overbought from a purely technical
93 00:15:48,089 --> 00:15:59,639 standpoint, not an indicator standpoint, a technical standpoint, and there is an element of wanting to see that cable trade lower as well, I have two things
94 00:15:59,639 --> 00:16:10,979 going for me both cable wanting to suggest lower prices. Now euro dollar isn't an area where it should look to sell off, I got a pretty good deal in terms of
95 00:16:11,009 --> 00:16:18,449 odds. So now what we're gonna do is we're gonna drop down into a 15 minute time frame for the euro dollar, and do some analysis on that as well.
96 00:16:18,570 --> 00:16:26,670 Okay, so we're looking at the euro dollar to the 15 minute time frame. And I'm gonna give you an idea what I acted on last night. And I did not want to stay up
97 00:16:26,670 --> 00:16:35,880 overnight, I didn't want to participate in London, I didn't want to do any of those procedures that would otherwise lead well to entries, what I did was
98 00:16:35,910 --> 00:16:47,490 measured the highest body and the lowest body reference point relative to the open or close. And that gives me an optimal trade entry rate in here. Okay, and
99 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:57,750 admittedly, I was acting on this swing high right here. So we had a high, a lower high and a lower high to the right of it. Okay, and then, on this candle
100 00:16:57,750 --> 00:17:07,560 right here was my entry. Okay, so as price was going up, because I'm having to sell short when prices moving higher. That is a filter for me, I have to be a
101 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:17,310 seller only when prices moving up. And I was using it as the middle of this order block words. It was an upclose candle, I was anticipating a break down. It
102 00:17:17,310 --> 00:17:27,120 just so happens that it traded up higher. my stop loss was 35 pips. Okay, anyone that understands my power three concept, I was using an early entry technique
103 00:17:27,330 --> 00:17:39,510 going around the Asian open and with the expectation that we have already made the high the day before. So it should not trade through that. If I'm allowing
104 00:17:39,510 --> 00:17:51,270 myself to have a 35 PIP stop loss. I'm not concerned about anything. You can just want to take some pips out I will look to mitigate the risk in that stop
105 00:17:51,270 --> 00:18:03,420 loss around the New York open. So we had price trade up, knock out this swing, low swing high here. Come back into a bearish order block trades lower going
106 00:18:03,450 --> 00:18:14,250 Asian range comes back up here is the opening at midnight as the New York opening price. We have our Judas swing here rallies back up to what 62%
107 00:18:14,250 --> 00:18:28,320 retracement level. Okay. Now had I been up, I would have sold short right here. And then price breaks lower and ultimately reaches down into target to now let's
108 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:40,950 draw a line out. You can see how that overlaps rather handsomely. Right there. It's it, boom. Okay. So late in the day New York does in fact, hit that level.
109 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:52,470 If you are not paying attention to this over here, which is something that you shouldn't be doing if you're following my work. But you may have seen just this
110 00:18:52,470 --> 00:19:04,710 one. Again, because we're looking for entries, we're using the body's open highs or closes the highest one and or the lowest open or close in the swing low.
111 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:16,080 Again, beautiful symmetry 79% retracement level kicks off the swing trades lower. What I was looking for was a move below this low. Okay, so I was looking
112 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:27,810 for movement below here. And we know what's going to be resting below that cell stops in the form of a 1020 and 30 PIP swing or sweep below that. And price does
113 00:19:27,810 --> 00:19:47,220 in fact go from here we have a low of 2025 and a half and the low comes in at 24. So basically about 20 pips, a swing below that let the run out stops. Now I
114 00:19:47,220 --> 00:19:54,120 don't personally think that it's done. I think we'll probably leave this consolidation and go a little bit lower. Probably clean out the low we like
115 00:19:54,120 --> 00:20:03,360 below here. I don't know if we're going to go any lower than that yet. But this is certainly enough. For me to do an exercise on, and I took and put a very,
116 00:20:03,360 --> 00:20:14,670 very small amount of leverage on it, it was a Live account trade, I tweeted The, the results of it, something like $54 and some change. But just to show that 30
117 00:20:14,670 --> 00:20:24,360 some pips or so, which is what I teach is an objective. It's still possible. But just because it's possible, I don't teach you or encourage you to go in there
118 00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:33,450 and do this. During this time of the year. I do it as a mode of practice. And I still engage sometimes with a demo account in this time of the year. But I do
119 00:20:33,450 --> 00:20:44,880 not actively go in with my normal leverage, or with a Live account until around the third week of January. Okay. So hopefully this is, you know, gave me some
120 00:20:45,300 --> 00:20:54,840 more clarity about what we can do with Fibonacci and elements about Fibonacci in equilibrium, and still finding precision. It just so happens that these two
121 00:20:54,840 --> 00:21:05,130 examples are pretty precise, but I don't like to anticipate or expect that. This immediately after the holidays. Generally, the markets can be rather fickle, and
122 00:21:05,130 --> 00:21:15,120 have really no symmetry whatsoever. But as you see here, it's relatively symmetrical. Even though it's sloppy in here, a lot of reaching low or lower, it
123 00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:17,430 ultimately goes to where we would reasonably expect it to go to.
124 00:21:17,850 --> 00:21:22,500 Okay, so until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.