ICT YT - 2017-11-25 - ICT Weekly Scalping Setup Review - 112517.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:23,940 ICT: Good morning, folks. We're gonna take a couple examples from last week's price action using the scalping method that I taught you. Alright, so before we
2 00:00:23,940 --> 00:00:45,660 begin, we go to our daily chart, and we're looking to fiber first. And I'm gonna put my little tools here. So you guys can use this as a means of determining
3 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:58,980 your bias. All right, so I have three tools here. It's a down arrow, and up arrow, and a small little trend line segment. And I'm not gonna be teaching you
4 00:00:58,980 --> 00:01:11,670 trend line analysis, okay. But I will be teaching you how to keep your focus on a specific bias. And we go to our daily chart to do that. And if we're bullish,
5 00:01:11,910 --> 00:01:24,660 or bearish has to be a method in which to number one, define it in very constant terms that don't deviate it don't change or morph across, in the longer you do
6 00:01:24,660 --> 00:01:44,490 it. But we're looking at a condition in the Euro, where we have a swing high, right here, swing high, and that swing high is then broken. Right here. Okay, so
7 00:01:44,490 --> 00:01:56,190 once we have a swing high broken, the condition is we wait for swing low to form, it takes patience, I know. But you want to find the most likely conditions
8 00:01:56,190 --> 00:02:08,310 or odds in your favor to look for trades. And this is what you do. Okay, so a lot of times, traders are spending, waiting for their condition and setup, not
9 00:02:08,310 --> 00:02:18,960 trying to find perfect settings or a new method because they don't have a trade today. If you submit to this idea, I promise you, you will find consistency and
10 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:27,660 you will find all the setups that you'll ever need. But that's where you need to decide and figure out on your own, I can't convince you of it outside of just
11 00:02:27,660 --> 00:02:36,660 inviting you to test it. And you'll see for yourself. So now we have our condition here we have a swing high broken, and then we wait for a swing low to
12 00:02:36,660 --> 00:02:48,720 form. So now what we've done is we've allowed the market to show willingness to rally or show strength, that retracement swing low forms. Once we have that
13 00:02:48,720 --> 00:03:02,190 swing low. Or even here, we go into the marketplace and we look for previous day's highs in old highs. And that's how we frame our setups. Now once you have
14 00:03:02,190 --> 00:03:13,650 the line segment on here on Mt four is highlighted, hold down the control button, click and drag it away, you can copy it. Okay, right in there. So now we
15 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:25,500 have our scenario. For a setup. For this past week, this would have been one good setup the look for and I'm not trying to teach you one shot one kill. I'm
16 00:03:25,500 --> 00:03:33,810 not teaching you you opening on the week to get to weekly range, I'm not teaching you all those things, I'm not teaching you power three, I'm only
17 00:03:33,810 --> 00:03:42,510 teaching you a small little segment of price action to study over and over and over again each week. And you'll find that there are very generic simple setups
18 00:03:42,930 --> 00:03:53,520 that form like clockwork, every single week, you'll find them their bread and butter concepts. So now we have our framework in on a daily chart. So we know
19 00:03:54,150 --> 00:04:05,100 from this day's close here on the 22nd we're bullish, and we're gonna be looking for a run on the liquidity above this particular high and it's the 15th of
20 00:04:05,100 --> 00:04:16,680 November 2017. So now we can take our information that we have here and simply drop down into an hourly chart. Alright, so we have our eurodollar and we're on
21 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:28,920 the hourly chart, not delineations on where the liquidity runs gonna be is here. You know, add the date dividers, hold down Control, tap, why you'll get these
22 00:04:28,980 --> 00:04:37,440 vertical lines delineating the individual days of the week when you're on an hourly chart. So that takes us right into this area right here because we're
23 00:04:37,470 --> 00:04:51,030 just below this old high. So we're going to zoom in on that. So all in here. That's where the setup would reside for a short term scout that would take us
24 00:04:51,030 --> 00:05:03,870 above this old high. Notice also on this day, we have already cleared the previous day's high So we're already above it. So it's going to most likely
25 00:05:03,990 --> 00:05:07,410 continue for forward and upward motion,
26 00:05:08,429 --> 00:05:16,109 or momentum to take out the high, which actually doesn't do this day. But generally, if you start today above the previous day's high in the New York
27 00:05:16,109 --> 00:05:28,349 session, it's going to be a straight run. But when here, I want to give you the context of what we look for, or what I look for, for scalping. And this is one
28 00:05:28,349 --> 00:05:41,459 of my earliest forms of scalping. It has evolved over time, but it's a really good foundation. So in this particular day, here, we're going to look at, drag
29 00:05:41,459 --> 00:05:46,739 this over here, seconds, zoom into a 15 minute time frame, it'll take you right into that
30 00:05:48,449 --> 00:05:49,049 time.
31 00:05:50,070 --> 00:06:02,970 Okay, you can see there's really no clear discernible impulse swing. On this particular day, it just goes sideways. So this is a day where we cannot really
32 00:06:02,970 --> 00:06:14,790 take a trade, because it doesn't have a clear run, impulse swing and then want to retrace for optimal trade entry. really tight low consolidation range. The
33 00:06:14,790 --> 00:06:21,780 very next day, we see price trading.
34 00:06:26,820 --> 00:06:41,550 Okay. And I use session highs and session lows, and here is the London session from the previous day. And we have this swing high here to forums during what is
35 00:06:41,550 --> 00:07:02,070 that right before midnight, in New York. just so happens to be a swing high. So we're gonna take the low and London Okay, here is that, for Kip, the ICT kill
36 00:07:02,070 --> 00:07:15,810 zone for London are drawing it up to the swing high. Now there's a whole lot of price action in here. Okay, so we disregard all this. And on a higher timeframe,
37 00:07:15,810 --> 00:07:30,390 this could be just basically one or a few candles, because its entire range is elongated. All of this movement up takes us into looking for a scenario for a
38 00:07:30,420 --> 00:07:41,160 scalp. Now this will be an area where we could look for the setup, but this happens to form during the London open kill zone, which is not beneficial for
39 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:52,860 the system. Because the system is designed to look for specific criteria in the New York open kill zone set means we have to be looking for to set up the forum
40 00:07:54,150 --> 00:08:00,540 post 7am New York time.
41 00:08:06,779 --> 00:08:16,859 Okay. So here we have seven o'clock in the morning on Friday, we have a range, this is where we would originally be hunting. And it doesn't get back down
42 00:08:16,859 --> 00:08:31,229 there, it trades back down into an old high. And I'll take this off now. And we go into this price action right here. I already showed you on Twitter, there was
43 00:08:31,229 --> 00:08:47,999 a clear optimal trade entry on running the fib from 118 52 this price swing high here. So if we look for, we're going to zoom in. Alright, so we're zoomed in on
44 00:08:47,999 --> 00:08:58,019 the five minute chart, because you can't get an impulse swing on a 15 minute time frame. And we have seven o'clock in the morning New York time. So now we
45 00:08:58,019 --> 00:09:09,569 can go in and look for swing lows to anchor from that show and energetic movement away or rally. We have a swing low that does that here. Look at the
46 00:09:09,569 --> 00:09:22,979 energy away from that level to the lowest body. In that swing low we reference that low up to high here and at seven o'clock it opens at optimal trade entry.
47 00:09:23,429 --> 00:09:33,389 We could be a buyer there or anytime prior to this high being taken out on the upside. So anywhere between
48 00:09:39,660 --> 00:09:56,400 this high down into this level here. So how's that for logic? We do not need precision entries. Now we can have precision entries, but you don't have to have
49 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:11,880 them. So anywhere in here you can be a buyer will be using The movement above this high for profit. And then also, we will be looking for upside objectives to
50 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:20,400 reach for in terms of liquidity. So where could we reasonably expect this to go to if we're going to be a buyer in the shaded area using optimal trade entry and
51 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:31,740 for a scalp? Where do we take profits? Well, we can take it at symmetrical price swing target to target one is, is off, think about if we bought it in here, with
52 00:10:31,740 --> 00:10:43,470 the expectation that we're gonna run these equal highs, it could only go up 10 to 20 pips. So we want to be at least allowing the market to move in our favor,
53 00:10:43,680 --> 00:10:52,350 because we're trading a higher timeframe directional bias based on that daily timeframe. So we're working off of a swing low on daily, and it could
54 00:10:52,350 --> 00:11:01,350 potentially have a large range today, which happens to be the case on past Friday. But where are we reaching for what's the level that we would reasonably
55 00:11:01,350 --> 00:11:11,010 expect to see price reach for, we're gonna go back out to an hourly chart, because we've already framed an area where we would reasonably expect a low risk
56 00:11:11,100 --> 00:11:22,650 entry. And you'd have to define the risk with this swing low. So anywhere in here, you'd have to calibrate your leverage and how much you're buying in
57 00:11:22,650 --> 00:11:31,290 relative terms to this low because your stop needs to be at that low. So anywhere up here, the higher you go away from optimal trade entry 62 to 79%
58 00:11:31,290 --> 00:11:39,150 retracement level, you're gonna have to lower your leverage, because it's going to have a great impact on what you have in terms of stop loss here. Let's go
59 00:11:39,150 --> 00:11:50,760 back out to an hourly. Okay, we're on an hourly chart, I'm gonna just drop a horizontal line on this old high back here, because that's where a clear area of
60 00:11:50,760 --> 00:12:00,960 liquidity would be. So that would be a very easy logical area to look for, for buy stops. So now we can drop back down into that five minute chart. So now we
61 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:19,800 have our old hourly high right here. And above these equal highs, we would reasonably expect to see a trade 10 to 20 pips. What's the little number on the
62 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:33,450 right hand side? Okay, it's showing 20 right there. So we have 20 pips above these equal highs, it takes us It essentially target to on the Fed. But then we
63 00:12:33,450 --> 00:12:44,460 have this old hourly high here. So we're gonna look for a run of 20 pips above that. Okay, that takes us right in here. And in close proximity to the
64 00:12:44,460 --> 00:12:57,120 symmetrical price swing, so like, just pure static price action alone could give us a reasonable objective to reach for that. So in terms of profit potential,
65 00:12:57,210 --> 00:13:09,510 let's assume that we got in here on an order block. Right here down close candle. You can be a buyer reading here and say we got with the spread. We got
66 00:13:09,510 --> 00:13:21,960 in at that point there. To get to the symmetrical price swing, it's 39 pips. If we go to just the 20 pips above, the old hourly, high, it's 35 pips. So that's
67 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:34,170 how we would frame a 30 pips setup for the week, not taught that you only need about 23 pips at 2% risk per week to make 6% compounded a month, which more than
68 00:13:34,170 --> 00:13:41,970 doubles your money every single year. And that's all that you need. That is the setup. That's it, that's all that would be necessary. You do not need this
69 00:13:41,970 --> 00:13:51,240 entire run all the way for the rest of the day. That's day trading, what I'm showing you and teaching you was a scalping concept, looking for 20 to 30 pips,
70 00:13:51,570 --> 00:14:03,480 that to me is a scout. Technically, anything less than a 50 PIP run is a scout for me, but real easy way of framing the condition looking for the setups and
71 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:12,900 looking for the liquidity that the market will reach for. Let's take a look at the cable. Alright, so we're looking at the British Pound versus the US dollar
72 00:14:12,900 --> 00:14:29,130 or cable. And the same thing, we're gonna be looking for a swing high right here. And we're going to delineate that with our little trendline.
73 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:38,910 Okay, again, what I've been learning is the fact that we broke through that swing high. So now short term momentum is bullish, okay. It's real easy. We
74 00:14:38,910 --> 00:14:48,000 don't need moving averages. We don't need trend lines. Not in sense of diagonal trend lines, but I like to use horizontal lines for noting specific price
75 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:58,590 levels. Okay, so after, after the swing highs broken, it means this candle right here is the first time it breaks through it doesn't need to close above it just
76 00:14:58,590 --> 00:15:08,520 needs to trade through it. Well Once that occurs, we start going in and looking for swing lows, that's here. So we have a swing low form here, immediately, as
77 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:21,420 soon as it happens, we start the very next day looking for an opportunity to hunt long positions. Okay, we drag our little toes toll here and drop it right
78 00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:29,400 on that candle. So that way when we drop into our lower timeframe, hourly, it'll pick up the price action in our chart right away at that candle. So now at this
79 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:44,130 moment, we're looking for bullishness on the 22nd. Okay? Before we drop into the lower timeframes, I want to delineate the reference points for liquidity, we
80 00:15:44,130 --> 00:15:53,640 would probably reach for and we're going to use now this swing high here has been broken, that sets the stage for the bias. So going back a little bit
81 00:15:53,640 --> 00:16:04,050 further, we have an old high here, we'll use that one. That's our liquidity run. So that's where the target is. And we're gonna drop down down into a hourly
82 00:16:04,050 --> 00:16:25,260 chart. Okay, so we have our cable trade. idea, look for Long's. And on the 22nd, we're hunting optimal trade entry long. And it's going to take us into this low
83 00:16:25,260 --> 00:16:37,470 comes in exactly at the New York open. And we're going to be using this low why because in this area here, a price action. This is where the most energetic
84 00:16:37,470 --> 00:16:46,710 price action took place on the long side. So there was buying in there. So we take our fib. And again, on referencing is this big move here, plus, it takes
85 00:16:46,710 --> 00:16:57,810 out a short term high. So we know for optimal trade entry purposes, we have our market structure shift again, as well. You can see we trade right down into
86 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:08,040 optimal trade entry right here, during the New York open kill zone on the 22nd as the method dictates that we should be looking for, I'm just gonna shade that
87 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:22,380 little area in. And as a cable trader, you would be a buyer on this particular day here. And we can see we're aiming for this old high on hourly for a run on
88 00:17:22,380 --> 00:17:32,010 liquidity. And target two is our fifth level. Okay, so we have a confluence above this red level from the hourly, which is an old high, it's also a 20
89 00:17:32,010 --> 00:17:48,750 level. So let's calibrate that down to 20. So 3322, okay, look for a 10 to 20 PIP run above 3320. And that would be words of 133 40 or 133 30. Okay, so we
90 00:17:48,750 --> 00:18:07,170 have our setup for that. And we're going to drop down in to a continuation of that same theme. This old high previous day on Friday, so we're gonna be looking
91 00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:24,330 for a run on this. previous day's high again, in the same vein, of 10 to 20 pips above we're looking for so we have 20 pips above that would be right there.
92 00:18:25,170 --> 00:18:37,950 Okay. So that the objective to reach for for liquidity as price starts to drop down here. Okay, we're looking for an opportunity to go long. Now, this is
93 00:18:37,950 --> 00:18:51,090 London, so we can't use that price starts to rally again on Friday. Again, we're looking for this momentum movement above 3330. So we're going to look at a 15
94 00:18:51,090 --> 00:19:02,430 minute timeframe here on the 24th word continuation of the same theme, looking for bullish scalps. Okay, so we have our chart on Friday for cable, so 15 minute
95 00:19:02,430 --> 00:19:16,320 timeframe, and we don't see the New York open until right here. Okay, so on this candle right there, the price has already made a swing low, it's starting to
96 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:28,710 rally up. We could look for a scenario like this. This is still viable, so that most energetic price movement prior to that is here.
97 00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:40,380 And we'll use that lowest body reference point right there. And we have the highest reference point so here is our impulsive leg up. Yes, it goes above the
98 00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:50,040 old high but again, we're anticipating 10 to 20 pips. So this is a little flirtatious run above the old high on hourly and our previous day's high rather.
99 00:19:51,630 --> 00:20:11,520 And this day, on Thursday, we have a new previous day's high, we could take that same element of looking 10 to 20 pips above. We added here right there now have
100 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:21,120 a reference point again. In that case, we don't have Thursday's liquidity ran out at all yet it's fallen short, but the previous day's high. We are seeing
101 00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:30,300 that that's why you're seeing a little bit of retracement right in here. This is where you'd be looking to get this set up. But it has to happen during the New
102 00:20:30,300 --> 00:20:41,730 York open kill zone. In this case, we're 15 minutes early. This candle here starts it, but we are below the old high. So we could be a buyer in here. Stock
103 00:20:41,730 --> 00:20:51,780 would be below this low here. Price runs to target to look at the bodies of the candles, they're respecting that Fibonacci level not because of the magic of
104 00:20:51,780 --> 00:21:01,200 Fibonacci, but because we're looking for an algorithmic basis to why price should go up 20 pips above a previous day's high. Don't think that I'm having
105 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:13,590 this rectangle over here. For any relationship to that particular day, it's this, Thursday's high. Okay, so price is going to want to reach up into that 10
106 00:21:13,590 --> 00:21:35,250 to 20% range above an old high. And you can see, we have real good respect of that level here. But buying here, essentially around that 3325 level. It's 1020.
107 00:21:36,360 --> 00:21:48,480 It's about 20 pepper. You get 20 pips out of that. So it's a nice little scout. So it's not barnburner it's not a earth shattering amount of pips, but it is a
108 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:59,340 bread and butter setup, using the criteria and again, not demanding absolute precision, you can still take the setup as long as we're below the swing high.
109 00:21:59,820 --> 00:22:10,800 And the conditions that leads to the draw and price permits enough range to make a profit, it has to do at least 20 pips or more in terms of potential profit.
110 00:22:11,370 --> 00:22:20,790 And if it does that, it doesn't matter where you are in reference to where the old low is for the optimal trade entry, or origination. That was where the real
111 00:22:21,150 --> 00:22:31,230 lowest risk would be with the entering down here, which was early it was before the New York kill zone, which is seven o'clock in the morning, New York time.
112 00:22:31,950 --> 00:22:40,590 With this move already underway here, we can't go back and say, Well, I want to buy out here because it's up here. But nothing's changed with the setup, it just
113 00:22:40,590 --> 00:22:52,080 means that you didn't get the good entry point. And this is just as good. And you're below the reference point high as we frame the fit. So it allows you as a
114 00:22:52,080 --> 00:23:00,630 developing trader to grow in your precision and grow into your efficiency in terms of using the tools and concepts. And then you can anticipate these better
115 00:23:00,630 --> 00:23:09,750 levels here on the basis of a limit order that if it was in place, overnight, it would have filled you at that price level. And then you would have had the
116 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:18,870 better fill and a better exit point using 10 to 20 pips above the previous day's high. Alright, folks. So hopefully you found these two examples insightful, I
117 00:23:19,140 --> 00:23:27,330 recommend you go through the price action on all the majors and take a look at the crosses. And you'll see that there are setups that repeat themselves. And
118 00:23:27,330 --> 00:23:38,190 notice that while we didn't have a good setup on the eurodollar, every single day or the cable every single day, when the conditions are there, and we
119 00:23:38,190 --> 00:23:46,350 understand what we're looking for in the bias of the marketplace, or trying to be a buyer or a seller based on that daily timeframe and a break of swing high.
120 00:23:47,010 --> 00:23:58,920 And then a swing low forms. Or if we see a swing low break, and we wait for a swing high to form, those two conditions are setting up our bias. Once that
121 00:23:58,950 --> 00:24:07,380 happens, then we go through and look for old highs, previous day's highs and make a run for liquidity. And it repeats itself every single trading week. It
122 00:24:07,380 --> 00:24:14,970 doesn't give you a setup every single day. Don't aim for it to happen in your favorite pair like that. But look for one good bread and butter setup premium on
123 00:24:14,970 --> 00:24:25,170 the context and create a demo account and practice for about three, six months. And see if you don't find these setups every single week. Try to find just one,
124 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:30,090 risk a maximum of 2% and see if you're not getting 6% every single month.
125 00:24:30,540 --> 00:24:42,630 If you can do that consistently for six months. That's, in my opinion. It's the foundation to eventually lead you on your own timing in your own decision to
126 00:24:42,630 --> 00:24:52,410 move to live funds. I don't tell anyone what to do that it's a unique personal decision. But when you make that decision, you need to know what you're doing
127 00:24:52,440 --> 00:25:01,710 with your Live account because if you haven't made adjustments and develop good habits in a demo account, you're going to discover You can become very reckless
128 00:25:01,740 --> 00:25:07,860 and emotional in live trading. So hopefully you found this insightful. Until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.