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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-01-12 10:33
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1 == Outline ==
2
3 ##00:08 -## Position trading with economic calendar analysis.
4
5 - Preparation is key for position trading, focusing on monthly chart and economic calendar for potential trades.
6 - Trader identifies key price levels and sets up PD arrays for potential trading opportunities based on monthly range bias.
7
8 ##05:09 -## Seasonal tendencies in trading.
9
10 - ICT teaches on seasonal tendencies in month 5 of the core content, highlighting the importance of understanding these tendencies for long-term trading success.
11 - ICT emphasizes the importance of using stops and not over-leveraging when trading with seasonal tendencies, as they are not always perfect or accurate.
12 - Focus on quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies for potential 500+ pip moves.
13
14 ##09:35 -## Trading strategies using price gaps.
15
16 - Identify convergence of price manipulation and economic calendar volatility for entry/exit signals.
17 - ICT expects a low to form between Monday and Wednesday's New York open when the market is bullish, with a 70% chance of forming on Tuesday.
18 - When bearish, ICT notes the European opening price on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, and filters shorts at or above this price level, which overlaps in the 4-hour premium fair value gap.
19
20 ##14:48 -## Trading strategies and risk management.
21
22 - Trader enters short positions with sell limit orders, manages trade with multiple orders and objectives.
23 - Trader maps out orders to take 500 pips profit, managing risk with multiple orders.
24 - Trader outlines risk management strategy for trading with a 25% stop loss.
25
26 ##21:35 -## Seasonal tendencies in the Euro dollar market.
27
28 - ICT explains the importance of smoothing equity curves through algorithmic trading.
29 - Ict discusses seasonal tendencies in Eurodollar, predicting a high in April followed by a decline.
30
31 ##25:16 -## Using a trading model to enter short trades.
32
33 - ICT is looking for an old high to be violated in the Euro currency, indicating a potential bearish trend.
34 - ICT is using a simplified model based on the YouTube model and algorithmic theory principles to predict price movements.
35 - ICT teaches a strategy for shorting a stock when it rallies through an old high, using a sell stop at the opening price of the next candle.
36 - The stop loss is adjusted to the high of the previous candle plus one, and the expectation is to enter the trade on autopilot and have the stop loss triggered in case of weakness.
37
38 ##30:45 -## Trading strategies using seasonal tendencies.
39
40 - Trader uses offset distribution to target a short-term low in the Euro/USD pair.
41 - Wait for seasonal tendencies to trade Euro-Dollar, avoiding madness.
42 - Identify seasonal tendencies in market data to inform trading decisions.
43
44 == Transcription ==
45
46 (% class="hover min" %)
47 |1 |00:00:08 ~-~-> 00:00:18 |ICT: Okay folks, welcome back. This is price action model, number four position trading trade plan, and it's targeting 500 Plus pips portrayed.
48 |2 |00:00:30 ~-~-> 00:00:42 |The price action model, number four position trade plan, again targeting 500 pips per trade. As always, we start with our initial slide here that gives us an
49 |3 |00:00:42 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |overview of the process. And you've seen this now three previous times, and it'll look like this every single time we do a trade plan. But it always starts
50 |4 |00:00:50 ~-~-> 00:01:03 |with preparation. And then the next stage is opportunity discovery, trade planning, trade, execution, and finally, trade management. Okay, for trade
51 |5 |00:01:03 ~-~-> 00:01:11 |preparation, again, we are always referring to the economic calendar. For the coming week, we're gonna be noting all medium and high impact events for the
52 |6 |00:01:11 ~-~-> 00:01:18 |markets that you will be following. You're going to study the events in the week to come and consider how the current market structure and the calendar events
53 |7 |00:01:18 ~-~-> 00:01:29 |may suggest a specific weekly profile for that week's range. Now since we're looking at position trading, we're focusing primarily on that monthly chart and
54 |8 |00:01:30 ~-~-> 00:01:43 |looking for seasonal tendencies, as we'll talk about later on in this trade plan, but we're looking at how the independent daily economic drivers volatility
55 |9 |00:01:43 ~-~-> 00:01:53 |injections, that economic calendar will provide us that may be the smokescreen, if you will, to facilitate the manipulation that starts these longer term
56 |10 |00:01:53 ~-~-> 00:02:07 |trades. Every component you've seen so far in swing trading, short term trading and intraday trading trade plans, the smaller short term timeframes, those trade
57 |11 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:18 |plans can be plugged in to the higher timeframe trade plans. So it just makes it more convenient in terms of managing risk. And then we'll mention that when it
58 |12 |00:02:18 ~-~-> 00:02:28 |comes to that time, where the trade plans could be integrated for reducing risk. But for now, just know that everything starts the same way. So it's not like
59 |13 |00:02:28 ~-~-> 00:02:40 |we're changing everything. Because it's a new model, or a duration of trade plan. It's the same protocols and procedures. And it's refined to a specific
60 |14 |00:02:40 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |process. And what we look for for each independent model, they will agree as a whole as a collective whole, once you know all 12 models, you'll be able to see
61 |15 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:03:04 |how they can be interwoven to create a really complete overview of price action. Okay, in the next stage of preparation is really determining the IP the data
62 |16 |00:03:04 ~-~-> 00:03:16 |range for the last 2040. And yes, for position trading 60 days trading days, we do not count Sundays, and we're going to get the highest high and the lowest low
63 |17 |00:03:16 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |in the past 20 and the 20 is got a little asterisk there because again, you're going to do this for all three, HIPAA data ranges to 2040 and up to 60 trading
64 |18 |00:03:26 ~-~-> 00:03:39 |days. And this is going to be your current dealing range. So again, the date whatever Today's date is, cover that day and look back 20 days, 40 days and 60
65 |19 |00:03:39 ~-~-> 00:03:50 |days, and wherever that is that's our IP to data range. Again 60 days is the furthest we'll go back and we'll be looking for setups within that range.
66 |20 |00:03:54 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |Highest high and the lowest low will give us that dealing range and we will refer to it for our pdra matrix.
67 |21 |00:04:09 ~-~-> 00:04:19 |Inside this dealing range, we will look for the next draw on liquidity Where's price likely to trade to next, an old high low fair value gap or liquidity pool,
68 |22 |00:04:19 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |but the focus is a minimum of 500 pips so many times you're gonna find yourself reaching for that 60 day if the data range to get that 500 pips we will look for
69 |23 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:46 |a PD array in the direction of the monthly range bias premium PD arrays when bullish and discount arrays when bearish. We will anticipate price to move to a
70 |24 |00:04:46 ~-~-> 00:04:57 |PD array that would support our monthly bias one a day and economic event found on the economic calendar with the current order next trading week. This is what
71 |25 |00:04:57 ~-~-> 00:05:11 |we wait for this can eat there'd be a run on liquidity or rebalancing to inefficient price delivery. We identify the current seasonal tendencies for the
72 |26 |00:05:11 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |time of your price action study. Now, when we went through the core content, I gave you a teaching on the commodity markets, and also introduced seasonal
73 |27 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:35 |tendencies in month five. There's also teaching where I did mega trades, okay, so you want to go back through the core content and go through the megatrade
74 |28 |00:05:35 ~-~-> 00:05:48 |portion. And I go through there, and I pick out my personal choice of the best seasonal tendencies throughout the year. So what you need to be doing is if
75 |29 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |you're using a model like this, it's a long term position model. If you go through all the markets and look for their strongest seasonal tendencies
76 |30 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:06:05 |throughout the calendar year. And then when you start a brand new trading year in January, during Christmas break and do this, over the first couple weeks of
77 |31 |00:06:05 ~-~-> 00:06:16 |January, when we don't generally trade because the markets have to work off that low volatility and holiday rut that is typically seen. You want to be planning
78 |32 |00:06:16 ~-~-> 00:06:27 |each month, what market you anticipate, not that you demand that has to happen, because seasonal tendencies are just a roadmap. It's not a panacea, it's not
79 |33 |00:06:27 ~-~-> 00:06:39 |going to always be there. It's just a general rule of principle in terms of direction, okay, or bias or long term expected roadmap, what generally happens
80 |34 |00:06:39 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |more often than not, so kind of like gave you the longest winded definition of a seasonal tendency that you've probably ever heard. But I really want to impress
81 |35 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:56 |upon you the importance of just knowing that seated tendencies, while they're nice and great, and they're very useful. They're not always perfect or accurate,
82 |36 |00:06:56 ~-~-> 00:07:04 |okay, so there's gonna be times where they're not going to pan out. That's where risk is incurred. That's why we have to have stops. That's why we don't over
83 |37 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |leverage. Otherwise, we could just go full hills, going here, no stops and just expected to pan out and everybody would be billionaires. Wouldn't it be fun, but
84 |38 |00:07:11 ~-~-> 00:07:20 |it's not like that. So nonetheless, you want to go through those lessons I just outlined, the one five were introduced his own tendencies, you want to look at
85 |39 |00:07:20 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |the commodity section, where it goes over specific seasonal tendencies there. And then the mega trades mega trades lesson gives you the choice of setups for
86 |40 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |seasonal tendencies. So between those three areas going into the core content that will help you really dig deeper into this trade plan, that we're looking
87 |41 |00:07:46 ~-~-> 00:07:57 |for the seasonal tendencies for the month that come on over the next quarter. Okay, so this really is a quarterly shift model, okay, and trade plan. So it's
88 |42 |00:07:57 ~-~-> 00:08:07 |really designed to trade for moves that are around two months or longer. And that's really focusing on the quarterly shifts that we talked about during the
89 |43 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:17 |core content. So focusing on on the highest probability seasonals that suggest a strong chance of bullishness or bearishness debt at that current time that could
90 |44 |00:08:17 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |offer 500 pips or more. Okay, so you're looking for a setup within a range that will allow or suggest that it could deliver as many as 500 pips or more and that
91 |45 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |means you're looking at monthly and weekly charts, okay to help frame out that 60 day if the data range but you're only limiting your focus to the highest
92 |46 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:55 |probability seasonal tendencies. You can identify the discount rates under the if the data range of 2040 and 60. When the bias is bearish, and urine identify
93 |47 |00:08:55 ~-~-> 00:09:13 |the premium arrays inside the 2040 and 60 day up to date range. When the CBOT hedge program is bearish. Expect a monthly range expansion down you can identify
94 |48 |00:09:13 ~-~-> 00:09:23 |the premium arrays above the 2040 and 60 day if the data range when the bias is bullish, identifying the discount arrays inside of the 2014 60 day if the data
95 |49 |00:09:23 ~-~-> 00:09:41 |range on the CBOT hedge program is bullish, expected monthly range expansion up. When the market is primed, we want to look for convergence of both manipulation
96 |50 |00:09:41 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |in price opposite to our trade bias at a time when the economic calendar suggests a volatility injection will likely unfold. We will short premium fair
97 |51 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |value gaps and by discount fair value gap setups When we are bearish, we will frame a short entry when price has moved up into a four hour premium fair value
98 |52 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:19 |gap pdra. That converges with a standard deviation of no more than plus three standard deviation during London or New York open. We can implement scalping
99 |53 |00:10:19 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |protocols on this stage as well for further reduction in risk. What do I mean by that, you can go into the Scalping Trade plans and that model and plug it in
100 |54 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |right here to help refine the risk down to the smallest possible one minute chart. When we're bullish, we will framing long entry when price has moved down
101 |55 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:55 |into a for our discount fair value gap PD array that converges with a standard deviation of no more than negative three standard deviation. During London Open
102 |56 |00:10:55 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |or New York open. We can implement again as I mentioned in the previous slide the scalping protocols at this stage for further reduction in risk. When we are
103 |57 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |bearish, we will target the sell side liquidity below any old daily or weekly low or discount fair value gap inside of the 2040 or 60 day if the data range.
104 |58 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:31 |The next logical discount array at 500 pips will be the initial objective. There will likely be multiple old daily or weekly lows inside of the IP to data range,
105 |59 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:44 |but we use the one that frames the potential of at least 500 pips when we are bullish, we will target the bullish liquidity above any old daily or weekly high
106 |60 |00:11:44 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |or premium fair value gap inside of the 2040 or 60 Day after data range. The next logical premium array at 500 pips will be the initial objective. There will
107 |61 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:07 |likely be multiple hold daily or weekly highs inside the data range, but we use the one that frames the potential of at least 500 pips.
108 |62 |00:12:13 ~-~-> 00:12:24 |When we're bullish, we will note the European Open price on Tuesday. Now, the Tuesday day here, this could be a Monday, or it could be a Wednesday, we're
109 |63 |00:12:24 ~-~-> 00:12:38 |focusing on that weekly profile. If we're bullish, we're expecting the low to form between Monday and Wednesdays, New York open. So anywhere in there, that's
110 |64 |00:12:38 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |our typical window opportunity where the the low can form but I'm sticking with this because Tuesday generally, as I teach him from the free content, there's a
111 |65 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:57 |70% chance that Tuesday creates a low the week when the market is bullish. So we're expecting a weekly profile to be bullish and higher prices to be
112 |66 |00:12:57 ~-~-> 00:13:05 |delivered. Generally, the highest odds will be on Tuesday, it doesn't mean that it can't form on Monday, and you should be looking for it as well on Monday. But
113 |67 |00:13:05 ~-~-> 00:13:12 |nonetheless, if you lose or get stopped out on Monday, you go right back in on Tuesday, and the same thing will be said if you lost a customer on Tuesday and
114 |68 |00:13:12 ~-~-> 00:13:23 |the trade still looks good. Based on all the things that we would outline in this model, then Wednesday could be used as well. Okay, but we're using this
115 |69 |00:13:23 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |general rule that just replaced Tuesday with Monday and or Wednesday. Okay, the European opening price on Tuesday and filter all Long's at or below this price
116 |70 |00:13:32 ~-~-> 00:13:45 |level which overlap and here's the key which overlap in the for our discount fair value gap. Okay, so if the opening price is your European price, okay, it's
117 |71 |00:13:45 ~-~-> 00:13:57 |filtering your entry and it overlaps with your for our discount fair value got. You really have a beautiful setup right there. We will anticipate a 15 minute
118 |72 |00:13:57 ~-~-> 00:14:08 |chart institutional order flow entry drill trade entry to form inside of a retracement lower during London Open and or New York open kill zones or a sell
119 |73 |00:14:08 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |stop rate either one can be used. When we are bearish we will note the European opening price on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday and filter all shorts at or above
120 |74 |00:14:24 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |this price level which again overlap in the four hour premium fair value gap. We will anticipate a 15 minute chart institutional order flow entry drill trade
121 |75 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:49 |entry to form inside of a retracement higher during London Open and or New York open kill zones or our standard buy stop rate. When we are entering a short we
122 |76 |00:14:49 ~-~-> 00:14:59 |will place a sell limit order on all positions we will execute with our demo account. We will use the standard deviations and pdra convergence minus five
123 |77 |00:14:59 ~-~-> 00:15:10 |pips as our entry price. When using the sell limit order if multiple orders are used, all use the same entry price in the sell limit orders. When we're entering
124 |78 |00:15:10 ~-~-> 00:15:21 |a short we will place a limit order to take 100 pips as our objective on one position, we will place a second limit order to take 250 pips as our second
125 |79 |00:15:21 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |objective, we will use multiple orders to manage the trade idea. If you capture a 500 Pip objective, make sure you close 80% of the trade. That means nothing
126 |80 |00:15:33 ~-~-> 00:15:43 |from the total amount of trade position size that you have on all the orders that you have. 80% must be closed across all orders or total position when you
127 |81 |00:15:43 ~-~-> 00:15:55 |get 500 pips then see if you have any more room to run in price. When we are entering a short, we will note the premium array and standard deviation
128 |82 |00:15:55 ~-~-> 00:16:06 |convergence we aim to enter it we will place our stop loss above this high plus 25 pips we will reenter if the trade stops out, we can monitor it for a second
129 |83 |00:16:06 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |very entry position trades may require multiple attempts to secure a solid entry Do not fear this. We're entering along we will place a buy limit order on all
130 |84 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |positions we will execute with our demo account. We will use the standard deviation and PD array convergence plus five pips as our entry price when using
131 |85 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:39 |the buy limit order if multiple orders are used, all use the same entry price in the buy limit order. When we're entering along we will place a limit order to
132 |86 |00:16:39 ~-~-> 00:16:49 |take 100 pips as our objective on one position, we will place a second limit order the tick to one and 50 pips as our second objective. We will use multiple
133 |87 |00:16:49 ~-~-> 00:17:00 |orders to manage the trade idea if you capture a 500 Pip objective, close 80% of the trade and see if it has more room to run. Now what's not being said here is
134 |88 |00:17:00 ~-~-> 00:17:11 |obviously I'm mapping out using multiple orders, whether it being long or short, and one of the orders you want to take out 100 pips make it simply just 100 pips
135 |89 |00:17:11 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |that you get out regardless of how fast it's moving. Put your limit order exit at 100 pips profit, your second order, you're gonna do the same thing but have
136 |90 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:31 |it set to take 250 pips out your third or if you have multiple orders beyond three, okay, if you have just three then you have to consider that third one.
137 |91 |00:17:32 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |Taking 500 pips take profit there, but make sure that whatever you turn as a scaling for whatever you're taking as a partial, okay at that last order for 500
138 |92 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:18:00 |pips, make sure that 80% of that existing remaining balance of long or short 80% of it's off, so that way you only have 20% of that last portion on in terms of
139 |93 |00:18:00 ~-~-> 00:18:09 |risk. So you've captured 500 pips, you've got the lion's portion of the move behind you. You've also taken 250 pips on one other order and 100 pips off there
140 |94 |00:18:09 ~-~-> 00:18:23 |after another order. So you really set yourself a great deal of profit and pips and you don't want to leave a lot to risk in terms of seeing a reversal you but
141 |95 |00:18:23 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |you do want to see if you can have it run a little bit further. So if you had four orders, you can take one at 100 pips off a second one off at two and 50
142 |96 |00:18:31 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |pips profit, a third one could come off at 500 pips and just let the other one run, but lock in, say 400 pips and let it float for 100 pips in terms of
143 |97 |00:18:44 ~-~-> 00:18:46 |potential risk of open profit
144 |98 |00:18:51 ~-~-> 00:18:59 |when we're entering along, we will note the discount array and standard deviation convergence we aim to enter we will place our stop loss below this low
145 |99 |00:18:59 ~-~-> 00:19:08 |minus 25 pips we will re enter if the trade stops out we can monitor it for secondary entry swing trades may require multiple attempts to secure solid
146 |100 |00:19:08 ~-~-> 00:19:24 |entry, do not fear this. We are in profit 25% of our expected objective stop loss can be reduced by 25%. When we are in profit 50% of our expected objective
147 |101 |00:19:24 ~-~-> 00:19:35 |stop loss can be reduced by 50%. When the position is that 70% of the expected profit objectives stop must be at breakeven. Again, we do not choke the trade we
148 |102 |00:19:35 ~-~-> 00:19:43 |don't strangle it. And it's the reason why we take partials we pay ourselves as the market makes it available. And we put our stop loss in there to manage the
149 |103 |00:19:43 ~-~-> 00:19:53 |worst case scenario. So we don't take a great deal of loss in theory, but again, the markets can get beyond your stop loss. And at that point, really nothing can
150 |104 |00:19:53 ~-~-> 00:20:03 |really save you. Okay, and obviously these slides are always included in the trade plan. And so I'm just gonna go through them rather quickly. And you can
151 |105 |00:20:03 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |pause them
152 |106 |00:20:10 ~-~-> 00:20:20 |using a 20 pip stop loss. Now, obviously, you've changed the math here, because we're using a 25, pip stop loss. And everything that's been shown here for
153 |107 |00:20:20 ~-~-> 00:20:33 |executing the math to get to your pick, per set up using a 2525, pip stop loss, and using one and a half percent, I personally think one and a half percent is a
154 |108 |00:20:33 ~-~-> 00:20:42 |little too high, especially if you're trading long term position trading, because you're trying to capture big moves. And you don't want to be wrong
155 |109 |00:20:42 ~-~-> 00:20:56 |multiple times at one and a half percent. So you want to start with, in my opinion 1%. Okay, and the next slide here, if you're using a standard lot can
156 |110 |00:20:56 ~-~-> 00:21:11 |see the math as well. And if your demo account takes a loss, this is again, very important. On any trade at the full, our percent, you assumed drop the our
157 |111 |00:21:11 ~-~-> 00:21:21 |percent by 50%. And when the losses recovered by 50%, you're permitted to return to the maximum our percent per trade. If the reduced our percent trade assumes a
158 |112 |00:21:21 ~-~-> 00:21:34 |loss reduced to our percent by 50% until the previous trade loss is recovered by 50%. If you take a series of five winning trades in a row, drop your art percent
159 |113 |00:21:34 ~-~-> 00:21:44 |by 50%. You're likely to assume a loss eventually, and this will build in equity leveling, and reduce the likelihood of a large drawdown. You want to smooth
160 |114 |00:21:44 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |equity curve that slopes are stair steps higher, not a jagged roller coaster with deep declines. Right, you're gonna collect multiple sample sets with this
161 |115 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |trade plane. If you're unclear about some of the process, rewatch the lessons on this price action model and the ones I suggested inside of the teaching here.
162 |116 |00:22:03 ~-~-> 00:22:15 |Dig into your charts and study what was provided here, this is going to be the algorithmic theory for price action model number four. And for this discussion,
163 |117 |00:22:15 ~-~-> 00:22:26 |we'll be using the euro dollar. This is a chart from bar chart.com. The interactive chart, I've uploaded the chart showing the commitment of traders
164 |118 |00:22:26 ~-~-> 00:22:37 |report shown just commercials. And it did the hedging program based on this model, it looks back six months. And they can see markets been going lower. And
165 |119 |00:22:37 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |we want to key off of the trend of this data. And we have been what bearish foreign currency bullish dollar. Now I'm going to counsel you to go back into
166 |120 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:23:04 |model number four. And think about where I was discussing I think it was British Pound versus US dollar for the teaching but going to Mach number five in the
167 |121 |00:23:04 ~-~-> 00:23:14 |seasonal tendencies portion. And you can go into the PDF file. And I've seen this scroll through and get to the seasonal tendency for Eurodollar. And you
168 |122 |00:23:14 ~-~-> 00:23:25 |will see that you have been holding in your hot little hands all this time. All this time you've been holding it as it has been holding it ain't doing these
169 |123 |00:23:26 ~-~-> 00:23:35 |algorithmic theory videos, he's kicking the can down the road. No, I've seen what I'm doing is I'm waiting for everybody to get done. And now you're all
170 |124 |00:23:35 ~-~-> 00:23:50 |charter members. So look at what I have given you already. I discussed how the seasonal tendencies are very strong. They repeat generally, year in and year
171 |125 |00:23:50 ~-~-> 00:24:06 |out. There are some subtle deviations from it. But by far and large, you'll see that they're pretty much roadmaps. Turn to the Eurodollar. And if I will counsel
172 |126 |00:24:06 ~-~-> 00:24:20 |you to pause this video, go get that study PDF from month by scrub through that PDF file and to get to Euro dollar season tendency. Okay. And you'll see that in
173 |127 |00:24:20 ~-~-> 00:24:36 |April, it tends to make a high in trade down into many. For those that have paused the video, you're now hearing me say See I told you so in for those that
174 |128 |00:24:36 ~-~-> 00:24:48 |didn't go look, you didn't do yourself any service there, because it's exactly what I've been teaching you all this time. And here we have all the patterns and
175 |129 |00:24:48 ~-~-> 00:24:57 |things that are unknowingly driven with price moving higher or lower obviously with the season tendency with Dollar Index moving higher. So we've been
176 |130 |00:24:57 ~-~-> 00:25:10 |expecting the Seattle tendency for years are in April should be expected to come to pass where it goes where, lower. Okay, and here's that monthly chart for Euro
177 |131 |00:25:10 ~-~-> 00:25:22 |dollar, and this is the month prior to is March 2022. And we're looking for this old low down here. If you go back and listen to the commentaries thus far, in
178 |132 |00:25:22 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |2022, we're in May of 2022. Now, but if you listen to what I was outlining and suggesting that we were going to see in Eurodollar, we were looking for lower
179 |133 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:44 |prices, and gravitating towards what eventually that low. Okay? Now, what we're trying to do with this model, similar to what we've done in the price action
180 |134 |00:25:44 ~-~-> 00:25:53 |model, number three, is we're anticipating the monthly range to expand one direction or the other. Okay, so what direction are we expecting the next candle
181 |135 |00:25:53 ~-~-> 00:26:03 |on the monthly chart to expand higher or lower, lower, it doesn't need to touch this level here yet, but we're just looking for an opportunity to see if it will
182 |136 |00:26:03 ~-~-> 00:26:20 |give us that. As you can see, here we have the month of April delivering exactly as you would expect with the tools I've given you. And once a sales opportunity.
183 |137 |00:26:20 ~-~-> 00:26:32 |So let's take a deeper dive. Here is the daily chart. Okay. Now again, what I'm doing is what I've counseled you all to do with the core content in the lessons,
184 |138 |00:26:33 ~-~-> 00:26:44 |take it, make it yours, simplify it, don't try to do every possible thing in the world, and apply every single tool or concept or idea to your model, you want to
185 |139 |00:26:44 ~-~-> 00:26:52 |have something very simple. Okay, model number four. Again, I've already taught it, you can go back through all the fine details, and you can streamline it to
186 |140 |00:26:52 ~-~-> 00:27:03 |something as simple as this. Okay, I'm using the approach I used with the YouTube model, which is our model number 13. You're looking for domino 13 on the
187 |141 |00:27:03 ~-~-> 00:27:15 |form now, not there yet. We got to get through these algorithmic theory principles. And then I'll revisit this YouTube model with the perspective that
188 |142 |00:27:15 ~-~-> 00:27:23 |you would expect in mentorship. Alright, so we have the old high here. And I mentioned how we had three drives higher pay or three Indians pattern is it's
189 |143 |00:27:23 ~-~-> 00:27:33 |taught in the street smarts book by Linda Raschke. And Larry Connors. It's just basically a stop run here. And then one more stop run, and then gives up the
190 |144 |00:27:33 ~-~-> 00:27:42 |ghost in his lower back with the commentaries. We were looking for lower prices, it is what it is. I mean, so what we're looking for in this model, is we want to
191 |145 |00:27:42 ~-~-> 00:27:53 |see an old high violated if we're bearish, which we were we were bearish Euro, bullish dollar. So soon as that candle goes through old high, your eye goes to
192 |146 |00:27:53 ~-~-> 00:28:03 |the order block. opening price. You put a sell stop right there. You don't need to be in front of the charts. Okay. And if some of you still constantly email
193 |147 |00:28:03 ~-~-> 00:28:13 |me, and yes, I'm frustrated, because I've already taught this stuff. And it's like, you want me to take you right to a specific video in a minute mark. I have
194 |148 |00:28:13 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |too many videos. Obviously. You seen that? Too many minutes and all those videos to be able to remember exactly where I said what I don't have a script. Okay.
195 |149 |00:28:21 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |I'm going through notes that keeps me on point. But I don't have a transcript where I said what, at what time minute mark or what video what year? I don't
196 |150 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |know. Okay. But I do know you have this information. Okay. So when we have the market rally through an old high you're gonna be able to treat this short.
197 |151 |00:28:43 ~-~-> 00:28:54 |Because you're what a position trader, you can't be in front of charts ICT, I'm not able to be awake or I can't be, you know, away from my job. I just can't do
198 |152 |00:28:54 ~-~-> 00:29:02 |it. Okay, but I want to participate. How can I do it without day trading without getting into these intraday charts, okay, and still get handsome reward to risk?
199 |153 |00:29:03 ~-~-> 00:29:15 |Okay, well, you can do that. But just know that you're not gonna get a lot of these trades a year. But you can do very well over a long career. Or at least
200 |154 |00:29:15 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |until you get to the point where you can day trade or do short term trading and use the intraday charts. But for those individuals that can't do it, this is
201 |155 |00:29:22 ~-~-> 00:29:34 |what I taught in the core content. This is how I taught it to you for this model. The sell stock goes rate the opening price, the next candle here it's
202 |156 |00:29:34 ~-~-> 00:29:43 |opening up here rallies and eventually comes down and hits the opening price of the candle that took out the previous high that's selling on a stop. You're
203 |157 |00:29:43 ~-~-> 00:29:49 |selling weakness and your stop is right at that candles high plus one. Okay,
204 |158 |00:29:49 ~-~-> 00:29:56 |so right away you're using weakness that gets you in and your stop loss goes right here. Don't worry about if it stops Yeah. Oh, well. It's a losing trade
205 |159 |00:29:56 ~-~-> 00:30:03 |just like anybody else will be taking your trade, intraday day trading for scalping, it's a loss, you're going to get them sometimes, okay? Don't be afraid
206 |160 |00:30:03 ~-~-> 00:30:10 |of it. But the expectations you want to be entering here on short, it's on autopilot, your stop sitting there waiting to get triggered in. So when the
207 |161 |00:30:10 ~-~-> 00:30:19 |market drops them, instead of stopping you out of a long position, which you don't have, it's stopping you in to a short position that you have yet to enter.
208 |162 |00:30:19 ~-~-> 00:30:33 |And as soon as that fills, your stock becomes active up here. Okay, so you would put a stop sell stop here, what a protective buy stop at this candles Hi. Once
209 |163 |00:30:33 ~-~-> 00:30:43 |this breaks down, you got to have to have an alert to fill you will not fill you. But to bring you up to speed that you you were filled. And your stop has to
210 |164 |00:30:43 ~-~-> 00:30:53 |be maintained at that high. And you wait for price to break down. And you're aiming for this low. Here. That's an old monthly low. But this model refers to
211 |165 |00:30:53 ~-~-> 00:31:08 |SMT divergence and also uses offset distribution for your targeting. So with that, we're bringing in correlated pair SMT, which is we're trading Euro, it SR
212 |166 |00:31:08 ~-~-> 00:31:18 |is pound is pound making a higher high like it does here in Euro. No. So that's a bearish s&p divergence. So we have SNP behind us, which is what this model
213 |167 |00:31:18 ~-~-> 00:31:36 |calls for. So back into the daily chart on euro dollar. our stop loss here is 1.11850. That's the entry is 1.10865. So there's your risk. Now some of yours,
214 |168 |00:31:36 ~-~-> 00:31:49 |that's huge. Well, you scale it to that way. If you're risking 2%. Okay, your 2% would be divided up based on your equity, and then how many pips that is, that
215 |169 |00:31:49 ~-~-> 00:31:58 |tells you how much leverage you use when you're going short for a hypothetical paper trade. Okay. So what you're doing then is you're looking for price to
216 |170 |00:31:58 ~-~-> 00:32:09 |trade down below this low and waiting for a short term low. After it takes out that low, which is what we get right here. What is offset distribution, all set
217 |171 |00:32:09 ~-~-> 00:32:18 |distribution is finding that low and then waiting for the price to go down below once more. Okay, so what you're doing is you're running down equity, you're
218 |172 |00:32:18 ~-~-> 00:32:30 |getting more juice at this lemon breaks that short term low, because people are going to see this as a low and trying to buy and sell stocks with helium there.
219 |173 |00:32:30 ~-~-> 00:32:40 |So the algorithm does this pausing or slightly, retracement then attacks those cell stops that were not there prior. Okay, they cleared out the lows here. But
220 |174 |00:32:40 ~-~-> 00:32:48 |then the engineered new cell stops below this low with this consolidation, small little retracement, then when it drops down one more time, you're gonna be
221 |175 |00:32:48 ~-~-> 00:33:00 |targeting that short term price low. Because that's your offset distribution low here. So below this level, you want to be targeting your cover. You don't know
222 |176 |00:33:00 ~-~-> 00:33:10 |when this low forms until it starts to break below that low. And you wait and you observe. Now you can use the four hour chart for your asset distribution as
223 |177 |00:33:10 ~-~-> 00:33:22 |well. You don't necessarily have to have the daily chart, but the daily chart is going to give you the best bang for buck. So using this entire model, in theory,
224 |178 |00:33:23 ~-~-> 00:33:34 |using it algorithmically. It's bullish dollar bearish foreign currency using Zoom fancy April, look at your seasonal tendency for euro dollar. It's exactly
225 |179 |00:33:34 ~-~-> 00:33:46 |what you're seeing here, folks, right out of that page that gave you those are treasure maps, folks. Okay, their treasure maps. These things are so uncanny how
226 |180 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:34:00 |they can pan out. But you have to wait one. Okay. It's like Christmas time everybody wants to get that gift. But can you get that gift in? March? No. Can
227 |181 |00:34:00 ~-~-> 00:34:11 |you get it in October? No, you have to wait for what you got to wait for the season are given as Christmas. So the seasonal tendencies are just like that.
228 |182 |00:34:11 ~-~-> 00:34:21 |These are seasons when you anticipate a certain gift by the market. If you limit yourself to trading in these times of the year where the seasonal tendencies are
229 |183 |00:34:21 ~-~-> 00:34:36 |so overwhelmingly obvious. You could do yourself such a huge service and avoid driving yourself mad. Because there's lots of times when it's going to look like
230 |184 |00:34:36 ~-~-> 00:34:45 |there's something there. And seasonally it's probably not likely to do what you think is going to happen. But we can see obviously, we've been bullish on
231 |185 |00:34:45 ~-~-> 00:34:57 |dollar. So that's bearish on Euro. Euro starts April creates that one more little higher high. Then drops takes up the old monthly Well, you take a partial
232 |186 |00:34:57 ~-~-> 00:35:05 |there. You take a partial as it's running down in here. And then as it creates that short term low, you anticipate that run rate below that. So what's below
233 |187 |00:35:05 ~-~-> 00:35:19 |that 1.04. Big figure. So we could target that big figure, which would be also distribution, likely to drop to 1.04. Level anyway, if that's the case, what
234 |188 |00:35:19 ~-~-> 00:35:32 |you're looking at here is seven to one, are multiple. So for every $1, you risk, you need seven. And it only took about a month or so a month or here for their
235 |189 |00:35:32 ~-~-> 00:35:46 |mounts to get it. So if you're not taking partials, and you're aiming just for your target, so using this idea, you could be taking basically 14% out of this
236 |190 |00:35:46 ~-~-> 00:36:01 |move, if you're risking 2%, so one trade, you're risking 2%, and 14%. Folks, that's like half of a fund managers year, all you need to do is find more just
237 |191 |00:36:01 ~-~-> 00:36:13 |like that, and you beat most of the fund managers in the planet. So if you're aiming for that type of career, where you want to be a fund manager, and you
238 |192 |00:36:13 ~-~-> 00:36:22 |want to have a really easy life, not do a lot, trade with these seasonal tendencies, okay, and look for these types of ideas to build your own model. And
239 |193 |00:36:22 ~-~-> 00:36:30 |you'll see that these things repeat a lot. They're not exactly perfect. They're not going to be always the case. If that's the case, we would all be
240 |194 |00:36:30 ~-~-> 00:36:43 |billionaires, but obviously, you've known about this. You've had it in your hands, it's in your possession. I tell you all the time, spring and fall, those
241 |195 |00:36:43 ~-~-> 00:36:53 |two seasons of the year is where you really want to work hard. Don't work so hard in January, don't work so hard in December, and in the middle of the year
242 |196 |00:36:53 ~-~-> 00:37:06 |around July and August. Scale back how much you try to trade because that's the doldrums of summer. It's between the both peak seasons of spring and fall where
243 |197 |00:37:06 ~-~-> 00:37:08 |the markets are really, really easy.