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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-11 09:46
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1 == Outline ==
2
3 ##00:07 -## A day trading model using price action and institutional order flow.
4
5 - Identify potential 30 pip trades by reading price action and institutional order flow on weekly charts.
6
7 ##01:20 -## Trading setup using weekly range expansion.
8
9 - ICT outlines a trading framework based on daily highs and lows, with a focus on internal range liquidity pools and external range liquidity runs.
10 - Target areas for entry and exit are based on the daily chart, with liquidity pools below old lows for bearish sentiment and above highs for bullish sentiment.
11 - ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying the highest probable conditions for trading, targeting 30 pips inside a weekly range expansion.
12 - The model is not about predicting the weekly close, but rather capturing volatility in a direction already considered beforehand, with the potential for a 30 pip haul.
13
14 ##07:30 -## Trading strategies and risk management.
15
16 - ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying a likely 50-100 pip expansion on the weekly chart for high probability trading.
17 - He advises against trading too close to an old weekly low, as it doesn't fit the criteria for high probability.
18 - ICT emphasizes the importance of backtesting and analyzing trades in hindsight to improve trading skills and avoid costly mistakes.
19 - ICT encourages traders to adopt a mature approach to trading, recognizing that not every trade will be successful and that it's okay to miss some trades.
20
21 ##13:20 -## Trading strategies using weekly charts and internal/external liquidity pools.
22
23 - ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market fractals and using models that work in different market conditions.
24 - He encourages students to be flexible and adaptable in their trading approach, using reversal patterns and models for different situations.
25 - ICT anticipates a run on liquidity above an old daily high or below an old daily low, with a focus on the New Zealand dollar.
26 - Internal range liquidity is used to target external range liquidity, with a goal of facilitating an entry in the direction of the weekly expansion.
27
28 ##19:13 -## Analyzing audio transcripts and predicting market movements.
29
30 - ICT explains why the markets have been moving sideways, despite the dollar index reaching new highs.
31 - ICT predicts a 50-100 pip run lower for the New Zealand dollar due to their bullish dollar outlook.
32 - ICT identifies a repeatable pattern in the market, using price action to anticipate future trades.
33 - Understanding this pattern boosts confidence and helps control greed and fear, allowing for more informed trading decisions.
34
35 ##24:17 -## Using a trading model in a contrarian capacity.
36
37 - ICT expects price to reach a level where it will change narratives and become a contrarian model.
38 - The weekly range could retrace once price reaches a certain level, indicating a reversal.
39 - ICT explains how to use Model 11 in a contrarian capacity, anticipating trades in a counter trend basis after the determinant has been reached.
40 - The transcript provides an example of how to enter a low-risk trade after a Smart Money reversal, with a 30-pip run as the setup.
41
42 ##29:27 -## Technical analysis of price action in a financial market.
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44 - ICT analyzes price action and identifies repeating patterns, such as 30 pip price runs, to inform trading decisions.
45 - ICT looks for breaks in market structure to confirm potential trading opportunities, such as distribution and smart money reversals.
46
47 ##31:50 -## Trading the New Zealand dollar based on technical analysis.
48
49 - ICT: Weekly close off low, but SMT divergence in dollar vs. cable and Euro.
50 - Liquidity support for NZD/USD bearish orders ahead of Sunday's opening.
51 - ICT identifies a high probability scenario by analyzing the drawn liquidity on the daily chart, which shows a potential 100 pip profit opportunity.
52 - The market is in an internal range liquidity pool, with a premium range in the PDRA matrix, providing a pool of liquidity waiting to be utilized.
53
54 ##37:07 -## Trading with institutional perspective and risk management.
55
56 - Institutional traders use liquidity pools to manipulate price action.
57 - ICT argues that a one-to-one model with a high strike rate is not necessarily a concern, as long as the trades have consistency and continuity.
58 - ICT demonstrates how to double an account every year by targeting 6% return compounded monthly, using a session-based approach with liquidity management.
59
60 ##41:26 -## Trading strategies and risk management.
61
62 - ICT explains that exponential growth in a market can lead to a breaking structure, which can be identified by a small fair value gap.
63 - A trader who is aware of this structure can take 30 pips off by entering the trade at the level of the entry point, with a stop at breakeven to manage risk.
64 - ICT explains how to manage a trade by taking partial profits and adding to the position when the market retraces.
65 - ICT demonstrates how to model this approach on an hourly chart, showing different ways to be aggressive or conservative with partial profits.
66
67 ##46:43 -## Trading strategies and risk management.
68
69 - The speaker identifies a bearish order block and a potential entry point for a trade, highlighting the importance of identifying these types of market dynamics.
70 - The speaker emphasizes the importance of exiting a trade ahead of a key level, citing the potential for a significant move against the trader if they fail to do so.
71 - ICT emphasizes the importance of balancing the roles of analyst, trader, and gambler in trading.
72 - He prioritizes consistency over grand slam payoffs, taking singles and doubles to build equity.
73 - ICT adjusts exit strategies based on market conditions, targeting 10-15 pip profits ahead of key levels.
74
75 ##53:01 -## Predicting price movements using liquidity analysis.
76
77 - ICT encourages traders to study past data using a price action model to gain context and develop their own trading plan.
78 - ICT emphasizes the importance of analyzing the weekly chart to determine the largest probability of price movement, as it spends more time moving in that direction and institutions are not trying to make small 20 pip runs.
79 - ICT's model focuses on predicting price movement based on liquidity, rather than using classical retail theories like supply and demand, Fibonacci, or harmonic patterns.
80 - ICT explains that a 50-100 pip move is the minimum threshold for institutional displacement, and this is important for traders to know when analyzing charts.
81 - ICT highlights the importance of understanding the time and price theory in the markets, as the market will always try to draw orders to specific price levels, creating opportunities for traders to profit from.
82
83 == Transcript ==
84
85 (% class="hover min" %)
86 |1 |00:00:07 ~-~-> 00:00:17 |ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This Price Action Model number 11. This is a day trading model. And it's gonna be specifically dealing with stocking setups that
87 |2 |00:00:17 ~-~-> 00:00:33 |provide a potential of 30 pips portrayed. Okay, so the ICT Price Action Model number 11 Day Trading model, stalking 30 pips portrayed, the stage for this
88 |3 |00:00:33 ~-~-> 00:00:42 |model is obviously still working within the weekly range expansion. Now you're, you're probably noticing that it's pretty much the stage for all of them. And
89 |4 |00:00:42 ~-~-> 00:00:54 |that's the definition that promotes a high probability trade, if we're trading in that direction of that weekly range expansion. Okay, and right away, your
90 |5 |00:00:54 ~-~-> 00:01:04 |question is going to be well, how do I know what direction that is? Well, it's the same thing you see me doing on intraday charts apply to a weekly chart, it's
91 |6 |00:01:04 ~-~-> 00:01:13 |reading price action, institutional order flow, where's the next draw on liquidity? And what have we moved away from? If it's moved aggressively away
92 |7 |00:01:13 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |from one level, higher or lower, you're gonna be looking for opposing liquidity pools. Now, that could be in the form of an internal range liquidity pool, or an
93 |8 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:33 |external range liquidity pool. This setup, there's going to be focusing on previous daily highs and lows. So you're gonna be focusing primarily on the
94 |9 |00:01:33 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |daily chart for your bias, your directional drawl and liquidity, okay, is the market going higher or lower? What's it reaching for, but you're gonna using
95 |10 |00:01:45 ~-~-> 00:01:56 |that inside of the scope of the weekly range expansion. So in other words, we're looking for when we're bearish on the weekly chart, or expecting the weekly
96 |11 |00:01:56 ~-~-> 00:02:08 |chart to go lower, we're gonna be looking for old daily lows, okay, that's going to be the draw on liquidity, that's where our target is. So preferably, the
97 |12 |00:02:08 ~-~-> 00:02:17 |market will be above that, or above some previous daily low. And that can be in the form of like, equal lows, or a single low doesn't make a difference. There's
98 |13 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:28 |liquidity below an old low when it's bearish. on the weekly chart, the daily chart will give us our setup, to frame a range expansion in the direction of the
99 |14 |00:02:28 ~-~-> 00:02:41 |weekly chart. And we'll be using the price pattern of internal range liquidity to target external range liquidity runs, okay, and I'll go into that again, in
100 |15 |00:02:41 ~-~-> 00:02:52 |more detail on going to the charts, but when the weekly range is bullish, or we expect a expansion to the upside on a weekly chart, we're gonna be looking for
101 |16 |00:02:53 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |for daily highs to be targeted for a run on liquidity. So inside of that fractal or framework, we're gonna be looking for internal range, liquidity that to be
102 |17 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:20 |buying, and then exiting with offset distribution at some external range liquidity that would be above an old daily high. Okay, so that's the, the
103 |18 |00:03:20 ~-~-> 00:03:29 |framework of this model. Very, very simplistic, don't overcomplicate it, what I just said is there, that's all there is to it. Okay, now you can increase the
104 |19 |00:03:29 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |likelihood if you're trading inside of a seasonal tendency that would warrant that weekly range expansion, the daily highs and lows being targeted on a
105 |20 |00:03:40 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. And the internal range liquidity pools are going to be fair value gaps, liquidity voids and order blocks. Okay, so you're not
106 |21 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:04:01 |entering on a stop run. Okay, or turtle soup you're actually entering. Once a range has started to expand, you're getting in sight of a retracement of some
107 |22 |00:04:01 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |sort, but you're only looking to exit as it trades outside of the range that's defined on the daily chart. Okay, so the liquidity pools that will be below an
108 |23 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:22 |old low when bearish on a daily chart or the liquidity pools above and on high on the daily chart when it's bullish. That's your targeted area or where you'd
109 |24 |00:04:22 ~-~-> 00:04:36 |be looking to take profits or very close to it. Now, we do not require this is the main thing here. Okay, you don't require that daily hide to be ran out, or
110 |25 |00:04:36 ~-~-> 00:04:48 |that daily load to be ran out to be profitable. The model itself is just 30 pips. So if you're looking for something to more or less, grease your gears that
111 |26 |00:04:48 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |gets you thinking when a low end, low hanging fruit model and start building up from this is a beautiful model to work within in terms of looking for a weekly
112 |27 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |setup. But that doesn't require a lot of work doesn't require a lot of study. This helps really frequent if you have a large basket of markets to follow not
113 |28 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:19 |just forex pairs, any asset class, you can find this setup every single week. Okay, the problem is, you're going to think that you can do this every single
114 |29 |00:05:19 ~-~-> 00:05:30 |day. And that's not what I'm trying to promote here. I want you to think about the highest probable conditions, and then only executing on those and let the
115 |30 |00:05:30 ~-~-> 00:05:42 |lesser probability scenarios, just study those but don't really engage those, study them. Yes, but you want to be moving towards a model that you only want to
116 |31 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |be exercising when the probabilities are highest. Okay, so as a reminder, the highest form of probability is when you're trading in that weekly range
117 |32 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |expansion. So if the weekly range is expected to go higher, we're gonna be looking for buy setups, targeting daily highs, old daily highs. Now, here's the
118 |33 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |other thing. We're not trying to predict the weekly close. Okay, that's not what this is about. All we're looking for is the expansion model. We're going to
119 |34 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |capture something in the form of 30 pips inside that weekly range. So it's important that you know that we're not trying to predict it's not necessary,
120 |35 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:34 |it's not required. It's not a prerequisite for you to know where the weekly charts gonna close. None of that's important. We need volatility. As a trader,
121 |36 |00:06:34 ~-~-> 00:06:46 |short term trader intraday trader. And if we get the volatility in a direction that we've already considered beforehand, if it presents itself, and we allows
122 |37 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |us to take a 30 Pip haul, then great, we'll harvest at 30 pips and then we'll move to the sideline. Or if you're trading a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, and
123 |38 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:08 |it hits your objective, you can leave a very small portion on to see if you get any kind of follow through. So again, it's not about day trading or forcing you
124 |39 |00:07:08 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |to be a day trader, you can use this model to trade one shot, one kill, you can trade it with short term swing trading and position entries. It's all fractal.
125 |40 |00:07:20 ~-~-> 00:07:29 |It's as a matter of what you want to do as a trader. I don't want you thinking that you should hold the entire position. That's that's what I don't want you to
126 |41 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:37 |think. No words. You're not going to use this model to get in and then when it offers you 30 pips Well, I'm not going to wait for 30 pips and just get out
127 |42 |00:07:37 ~-~-> 00:07:47 |there. I'm going to wait for my 100 pips, okay, or my 300 pips on my swing trade, you have to pay yourself at some point at some point, okay, in your
128 |43 |00:07:47 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |trading, you have to make a threshold at which you, you fund yourself. So for some of you, it may be 20 pips, others that are really altra new, may feel
129 |44 |00:07:58 ~-~-> 00:08:06 |comfortable taking some profit off at 15 pips, there's nothing wrong with that you cannot go wrong losing money, okay? If you're banking, something in demo
130 |45 |00:08:06 ~-~-> 00:08:18 |trade, you're rewarding the trader, you're you're paying the trader, the analyst is rewarded when the analysis comes to fruition. The Gambler is isn't there for
131 |46 |00:08:18 ~-~-> 00:08:27 |the fun and the action of what could happen. While we all know what could happen train wrecks, and planes while this guy all the time, we're not inviting that in
132 |47 |00:08:27 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |our trading, okay. So we want to operate in the the purest sense of high probability execute on solid entries, working within an internal range capacity,
133 |48 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:49 |targeting external range, okay, because we understand that the large institutions will be doing the same thing, they'll be entering some measure of
134 |49 |00:08:49 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |retracement with the expectation the expansion will push outside the boundaries are the current range, and that's where they'll offset and be counterparties to
135 |50 |00:08:59 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |a pool of liquidity, or an opposing pool of liquidity to the entered off. Okay, so, again, weekly expansion, we're gonna be identifying a likely 50 to 100 Pip
136 |51 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:26 |expansion on the weekly chart. That is the the prerequisite for high probability. So if the chart on the weekly basis indicates that we could see a
137 |52 |00:09:26 ~-~-> 00:09:33 |move higher or lower, okay, in the form of a 50 to 100 Pip price run.
138 |53 |00:09:34 ~-~-> 00:09:44 |That's the underlying characteristic, if you will, that makes this model high probability. Now, if you're looking at a weekly chart, and it's trading really,
139 |54 |00:09:44 ~-~-> 00:09:52 |really close to an old weekly, low within 30 pips, that's not going to be high probability. That doesn't mean you can't scalp that, but at least for this
140 |55 |00:09:52 ~-~-> 00:10:01 |model, it doesn't fit the criteria you want to be able to see there's a possible range expansion still left to be fulfilled in the form of 50 to 100 pips close
141 |56 |00:10:01 ~-~-> 00:10:09 |to 100 pips better, but it doesn't need it 50 pips is enough. And then if you allow for that, or if you see that much of a range, okay, that's still
142 |57 |00:10:09 ~-~-> 00:10:19 |available, moves the weekly chart higher or lower, then you have the underlying context that forms the basis of a high probability scenario, it does not mean
143 |58 |00:10:19 ~-~-> 00:10:27 |that you will not incur losses, you're going to lose trades, okay, you're going to lose trades, trading this, you're going to lose trades in live funds. If you
144 |59 |00:10:27 ~-~-> 00:10:35 |trade it, you're going to lose demo funds, you're going to lose your your brains, again, your wits, when you first try to rush into this trying to do it
145 |60 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |right away, you need to study it. Okay, I introduced how we should be back testing, okay, with the fear of a gap. This week of this recording here, you
146 |61 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:56 |want to be going back and looking at how this has fared over the last several weeks or months. The more examples and the more experience you have looking at
147 |62 |00:10:56 ~-~-> 00:11:04 |how this works. In hindsight, the more comfortable you're going to be when you start looking at it as a walk forward test. And again, just because you think
148 |63 |00:11:04 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |you've seen enough examples in the past doesn't mean go in and start demonstrating it. Because again, you have to now start studying it as a paper
149 |64 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:20 |trail. That means you're not engaging actually at all you're studying. It's okay, right now, price is set up to do this or that I should run this level or
150 |65 |00:11:20 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |this liquidity pool. And I think that it's going to trade down to this order block or trend trade into the sphere of a gap or come into the consequent
151 |66 |00:11:27 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |coachmen for liquidity void. We're busier SEBI, one of those things, okay, you're gonna gravitate towards, okay, one PD array is going to make more sense
152 |67 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:51 |to you relative to the present market condition and market structure. I cannot predict what PD array is going to be the right one in all situations. Okay,
153 |68 |00:11:51 ~-~-> 00:11:59 |everything that has to be considered and analyze at the time. And that's why there's never really this perfect cookie cutter approach and recipe that always
154 |69 |00:11:59 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |works. It never changes. It's this, this this, this, this, there's always going to be some underlying theme. Okay. And the only theme is, we're looking for a
155 |70 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:18 |run on liquidity, because that's what institutions do. But between where the market is right now, and where that level is, there's a myriad of different
156 |71 |00:12:18 ~-~-> 00:12:29 |situations or scenarios that could form the basis of a trade. Not all of them, I will agree with and participate in, and they still will come to fruition and go
157 |72 |00:12:29 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |to that level. And that's fine. The maturity I've adopted in 20 plus years I've been doing this has allowed me to see that and say, Okay, well, that's normal,
158 |73 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |because I can't be in part of every trade. Neither can you. And some of you still might be as a charter member thinking that you need to have something that
159 |74 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:56 |tells you every single move you do, you'll all have the ability to go back and look at everything in hindsight and say, Yeah, this is what that did there. And
160 |75 |00:12:56 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |this is how this could have been used. But maybe you didn't see it at the time. And there's no shame in that there's absolutely nothing to be worried about.
161 |76 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:16 |Because what you're expecting, by looking at things like that, is you're elevating this to a level of a Olympic gold medal like Michael Phelps. Okay. I
162 |77 |00:13:16 ~-~-> 00:13:25 |mean, the guys just over and over and over again, gold medal gold medal. You don't need that. And you shouldn't aspire for that, initially as a goal for your
163 |78 |00:13:25 ~-~-> 00:13:36 |trading. Now, as a career, that should be your long term goal. Yeah, absolutely. Always strive for that excellence. But don't force this model or any model to
164 |79 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:46 |try to deliver the answers for all situations. Okay, there's not a panacea model. Some models are going to work very, very well in certain conditions. So
165 |80 |00:13:46 ~-~-> 00:13:59 |just make sure that we have that very clear in our understanding about how one model is not going to answer all situations. And it's okay for the current
166 |81 |00:13:59 ~-~-> 00:14:09 |condition in the marketplace, to not be your favored market condition or market structure to trade in some of you that have a very hardline contrarian approach
167 |82 |00:14:09 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |to thinking. And you're hardwired to think like that. You can focus primarily on reversal patterns and using models that would allow you to trade on a reversal
168 |83 |00:14:23 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |situation, for instance, longterm possible reversals, okay, that may be coming to fruition. I don't personally like to do that. But some of you might actually
169 |84 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:44 |do very, very well doing that. And I don't want to discourage that pursuit, if that's where you're being drawn to. Because let's face it, yeah, I can be good
170 |85 |00:14:44 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |at a lot of things, but I'm, I'm not a master of it all. Okay. So I want you to feel comfortable using my tools to kind of like deliver the model that you feel
171 |86 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |most comfortable with. And if we agree on the fact that not all Not all situations are answered by one single model. One model can be utilized. Once you
172 |87 |00:15:08 ~-~-> 00:15:19 |understand how fractal the market is, you can use that model for reversal scenarios, if you use it in the proper context, and I'll talk about that in this
173 |88 |00:15:19 ~-~-> 00:15:27 |teaching as well. So it's not just simply looking at the expansion in the weekly chart and trading only in that direction, when we get to a specific price level,
174 |89 |00:15:28 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |or a context that changes that narrative for the near term, then you can change gears and use the same model just in reverse. Okay, so it takes a lot of
175 |90 |00:15:39 ~-~-> 00:15:48 |understanding, and a lot of experience before we can start being that flexible with the price action model. But I want to kind of, like incorporate that a
176 |91 |00:15:48 ~-~-> 00:15:58 |little bit here. Because at some point, you know, when you start looking at what I'm been teaching you, there's a lot of, I feel like I heard this before, I feel
177 |92 |00:15:58 ~-~-> 00:16:07 |like I heard this, you're, it's because you're learning you understand it. So that's the goal and mentorship, you want to be able to, more or less anticipate
178 |93 |00:16:07 ~-~-> 00:16:16 |what I'm going to say, relating to a subject matter. And that's how you know, you've learned and are learning. And once you understand what you're supposed to
179 |94 |00:16:16 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |be doing, without me mentioning in the reviews, for our weekly analysis to come, okay, that is like a graduation for yourself. I mean, you know, what it is I'm
180 |95 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:34 |looking for, you know how I'm going to engage. And that's how, you know, you've been successful with the mentorship and I've been successful as your as your
181 |96 |00:16:34 ~-~-> 00:16:44 |teacher, but you're gonna be looking at old daily highs and lows with this model. Okay, so that's going to be the target or the draw, okay, think of it
182 |97 |00:16:44 ~-~-> 00:16:54 |like a magnet on price, it'll pull price to that level. So Epta will want to reprice to these old daily highs and lows to allow institutions to offset or
183 |98 |00:16:54 ~-~-> 00:17:07 |accumulate at that level. So we're anticipating a run on liquidity above an old daily high or below an old daily low. We're using internal range liquidity to
184 |99 |00:17:07 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |target external range liquidity. So we're going to be utilizing internal rates, liquidity pools, that is like a fair value gap, a void, this ECB, something of
185 |100 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |that nature where you get one single or sing single, pass through on price higher or lower, it will look to rebalance that. And we're going to be using
186 |101 |00:17:31 ~-~-> 00:17:40 |that to facilitate an entry in the direction of the weekly expansion. And looking to exit on an opposing external range liquidity pool. If we're bearish,
187 |102 |00:17:40 ~-~-> 00:17:50 |we're gonna be looking for sell stops below the marketplace because if we're short, we're going to be looking to buy back at a lower price. And repairing our
188 |103 |00:17:50 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |orders with existing sell side liquidity in the form of sell stops. And reverses said when we're bullish, we're long to exit our position, we want to be selling
189 |104 |00:18:01 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |it to an old high, because above that old high, there's gonna be buy stocks because there's traders that are short. So we use that to pair our exits, we're
190 |105 |00:18:10 ~-~-> 00:18:23 |selling to those willing buyers above an old high. Alright, so look, I focus on the weekly chart here. And this case study is going to be focusing on the New
191 |106 |00:18:23 ~-~-> 00:18:35 |Zealand dollar. So this is our weekly chart here. And you can see this is the week at the time of this recording. So we're going to be analyzing and breaking
192 |107 |00:18:35 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |down this specific weekly candle. But I want to take your attention right back over to this old low here because this is where the external rains sellside
193 |108 |00:18:43 ~-~-> 00:18:57 |liquidity pool is resting just below that low. Now from the opening on this week, Sunday for midnight, on Monday, it is our weekly opening priced. From that
194 |109 |00:18:57 ~-~-> 00:19:09 |price point one we're anticipating we're expecting okay, we're not surprised. We're not confused. We're anticipating of movement lower one a kiwi
195 |110 |00:19:10 ~-~-> 00:19:21 |down to this old low. Why the markets moved sideways? Yes, it's left equal highs. And so when you say why wouldn't it run up here hit that. Think about
196 |111 |00:19:21 ~-~-> 00:19:33 |what I explained in relationship to the dollar index. This week past we were expecting an upside move $1. So if the pair we're looking at here is New Zealand
197 |112 |00:19:33 ~-~-> 00:19:42 |Dollar, New Zealand should go lower if the dollar is going to go higher. So you have to factor all those things in it's not simply looking at the weekly chart
198 |113 |00:19:43 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |and saying okay, well where's the next liquidity pool? We have to use the economic calendar like we do on our weekly reviews, trying to formulate a basis
199 |114 |00:19:54 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |to what weekly template may unfold, which I don't talk too much about but we're gonna try to like start bringing them in, especially when we start going into
200 |115 |00:20:04 ~-~-> 00:20:17 |the specific trading plans in 2020 for these models if we're bearish as the case would have been for the Kiwi here, because our bullishness that we have for the
201 |116 |00:20:17 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |dollar, all foreign currencies were bearish to us last week. And it's not just me cherry picking this because it works well for me for this scenario, the
202 |117 |00:20:23 ~-~-> 00:20:36 |things I'm going to explain here, you can look at the Euro dollar, you can look at the Aussie dollar, you can look at the British pound. They all did very
203 |118 |00:20:36 ~-~-> 00:20:45 |similar things here. Because of our top down approach to analysis. Working from the higher timeframe weekly, we've been targeting that weekly sibulan dollar,
204 |119 |00:20:45 ~-~-> 00:20:53 |which is a bullish premium array, we're looking for that to be traded to, does it need to get all the way up there? No, when we saw that happen in the form of
205 |120 |00:20:53 ~-~-> 00:21:04 |consequent encroachment, we saw it happen in the dollar CAD pair. Okay, same thing there. So we're bullish dollar last week. And that would be again, as a
206 |121 |00:21:04 ~-~-> 00:21:13 |reminder, bearish for foreign currency. So again, I just want to say that because sometimes folks will be watching this video. And we may be years ahead.
207 |122 |00:21:14 ~-~-> 00:21:25 |And they're just studying this now, at the time of their membership, and it's probably passed, just know that the time of this recording, it's the last
208 |123 |00:21:25 ~-~-> 00:21:37 |weekend of April 27 of April 2019. Just know that our weekly reviews and our analysis was calling for a higher dollar. And that would mean bearishness on
209 |124 |00:21:37 ~-~-> 00:21:47 |here. So we're going to be looking for a 50 to 100 Pip run lower. And again, you're gonna be doing this on the weekend before the market even opens up on
210 |125 |00:21:47 ~-~-> 00:21:59 |Sunday. So right away, we do have at least 50 pips between wherever we open up that to see that opening price. Soon as it opens on Sunday, we know that there's
211 |126 |00:21:59 ~-~-> 00:22:13 |a range that still available in the form of 50 to 100. pips. So we already know we meet that minimum threshold for this model. Now, over here, I have the daily
212 |127 |00:22:13 ~-~-> 00:22:29 |chart indicating the high on Sunday and the low on Thursday. This is the actual weekly range just being delineated on a daily chart inside of that range, okay,
213 |128 |00:22:29 ~-~-> 00:22:39 |what I'm internalizing what I'm seeing and anticipating in the market in my price study is I want to see expansion slower, and then a willingness to come
214 |129 |00:22:39 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |back and rebalance that, and then trade lower again, just like bearish order blocks provide resistance in strong institutional order flow that's bearish. The
215 |130 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:23:02 |same thing is said when we have fair value gaps, or Sibi, that are filled, and then price goes lower. Again, what that is indicating is the old adage of sell
216 |131 |00:23:02 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |rallies in bear markets, buy the dips in bull markets, but the problem is, is there's really no way of making that clear for a retail trader. So without
217 |132 |00:23:12 ~-~-> 00:23:20 |looking at indicators, without looking at trend lines, moving averages, we're reading simply the price action, because we know that HIPAA will want to
218 |133 |00:23:20 ~-~-> 00:23:30 |rebounce at specific price points at specific times of the day, on specific days of the week. Now, when you understand that, it gives you a great deal of
219 |134 |00:23:30 ~-~-> 00:23:37 |confidence, it boosts your confidence to a level of, well, I don't really need to rush into my next trade because I know what I'm looking for. And they always
220 |135 |00:23:37 ~-~-> 00:23:45 |repeat themselves. So it allows you to control greed, it allows you to control fear, you don't fear missing out on anything, because they keep repeating.
221 |136 |00:23:46 ~-~-> 00:23:51 |You're not greedy, you're not trying to make everything on this single trade. Because you know, there's lots of other trades, it's gonna repeat, just like
222 |137 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:24:00 |this one for the next one. Okay, so it helps you when you have these models understood. And if you gravitate to one of them and may not be this model here
223 |138 |00:24:00 ~-~-> 00:24:09 |that you gravitate to, but just know that these are just suggestions. And I'm not saying these are the only 12 I'll ever do I'm sure in the years to come,
224 |139 |00:24:09 ~-~-> 00:24:16 |I'll probably give you something else. But these are just really good models are work with him because they're simply models that I have used and they served me
225 |140 |00:24:16 ~-~-> 00:24:28 |well. But when we look at the weekly range, that's been shown here on a daily chart, all I've done was transpose those levels over to here on an hourly chart.
226 |141 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:42 |Okay, so the high end we're expecting it Sunday's opening the expansion down to this level here, which is roughly the old daily low that we were looking at, on
227 |142 |00:24:42 ~-~-> 00:24:54 |I'm sorry, the yes daily, low but too low that we're indicating on the weekly chart on the previous slide, when price trades down to that, okay, once we get
228 |143 |00:24:54 ~-~-> 00:25:07 |to that level, things can change. Okay, so the narrative can change gears and We no longer are that bearish. So at that moment, this is when this model will
229 |144 |00:25:07 ~-~-> 00:25:20 |become become a contrarian model. Okay, so then once it hits that level, the weekly range could then retrace. So it's not just we're only trading the
230 |145 |00:25:20 ~-~-> 00:25:30 |expansion down. But once it reaches terminus, or where it trades to as our objective, and it shows a willingness to want to go higher, we can trade that
231 |146 |00:25:30 ~-~-> 00:25:41 |with a reversal mentality. Okay, and trade that as a retracement, just know that that's the advanced form of this model. And you would see this right here as the
232 |147 |00:25:41 ~-~-> 00:25:56 |original consolidation. So I'll go back to the consolidation here, distribution, redistribution, Smart Money reversal, low risk by Re accumulation, re
233 |148 |00:25:56 ~-~-> 00:26:05 |accumulation and clearing the original consolidation, which is this high here. So all of this is a balanced price range. And we left it with this here. So we
234 |149 |00:26:05 ~-~-> 00:26:18 |could see that retracement back up. And that's how we would use the reversal side of this model. Looking for all these imbalances, Bisi bossuyt imbalances,
235 |150 |00:26:18 ~-~-> 00:26:28 |sellside inefficiency, but not in the sense that they're naked and only exposed on one single candle here. Because you have to frame remember the market maker
236 |151 |00:26:28 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |by model. You want to pair it up with where the market created selling opportunities over here and over here. So take that right across the curve. And
237 |152 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:51 |we can see here we have a down close candle becomes a bullish order block. Why? Because it's framed with this context over here after the turn. So the curve now
238 |153 |00:26:51 ~-~-> 00:26:58 |is on the buy side, this is all the sell side, we're gonna be focusing primarily on this teaching on the sell side. But I just want to add this in here. Because
239 |154 |00:26:58 ~-~-> 00:27:11 |it seems like you can only use these models one way. But there's different scenarios, and there's different conditions in the marketplace all the time,
240 |155 |00:27:11 ~-~-> 00:27:21 |it's not just always an expansion, there is reversals, and you want to utilize that only when we get to Terminus, okay, and then we'd anticipate, so you may
241 |156 |00:27:21 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |not have done the low risk entry here. And you may have done the RE accumulation here. And then we have a small little fair value gap right there. Okay, price
242 |157 |00:27:29 ~-~-> 00:27:38 |trades, right at that opening fills, you don't need that opening to get you in there, you could be right at the top of the fair value gap here plus the spread
243 |158 |00:27:38 ~-~-> 00:27:48 |so that you would be here along with expectation, we would run the original consolidation out here, it does that, we see it again, create another fear of a
244 |159 |00:27:48 ~-~-> 00:28:00 |gap right in here, price comes down trades into it, you could be long there with the expectation that we would run out the original consolidation. So again, it's
245 |160 |00:28:00 ~-~-> 00:28:14 |not that we're looking for only the expansion, okay, you can anticipate trades in a counter trend basis. But only after the determinant has been reached for
246 |161 |00:28:14 ~-~-> 00:28:25 |what makes that trade a model number 11 expansion trade, when it comes to its target, then you can transition if you're comfortable. Or if you are a
247 |162 |00:28:25 ~-~-> 00:28:32 |contrarian, you wait for these scenarios to unfold, maybe you're not comfortable with trading, the expansion is lower, you want to you want to trade this down
248 |163 |00:28:32 ~-~-> 00:28:41 |here. There's nothing wrong with that. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. So getting in low risk entry here after Smart Money reversal. And again,
249 |164 |00:28:41 ~-~-> 00:28:48 |this is an hourly chart. So you've dropped down a five minute chart, it gets a little bit more precise about where your entry would be will drop down in five
250 |165 |00:28:48 ~-~-> 00:28:49 |minutes on this teaching.
251 |166 |00:28:50 ~-~-> 00:29:03 |But you could be in here, and clearly it's a 30 Pip run you can get there. And that will be your setup, but using model 11 In a contrarian capacity. Okay, so I
252 |167 |00:29:03 ~-~-> 00:29:12 |say that only to allow for completeness sake for the model. And include that same thought process when you're looking at all the previous models, whatever
253 |168 |00:29:12 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |makes that framework for that model come to its target or the end or the terminus of that move or that setup. At that moment, when it reaches Terminus or
254 |169 |00:29:22 ~-~-> 00:29:32 |the end of the move that you anticipated. That's when the reversal mentality comes in. Okay. So we went from expansion from consolidation to expansion, then
255 |170 |00:29:32 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |reversal. So, for this model, we want to be focusing inside this weekly range, we're gonna be looking for 30 Pip price runs that are logical, but they have to
256 |171 |00:29:44 ~-~-> 00:29:56 |form on the basis of an internal range liquidity. The market leaves aggressively this consolidation. So our eye goes into areas where there are city sell side
257 |172 |00:29:56 ~-~-> 00:30:06 |and balanced by side inefficiency. We have one here The market trades up into it and aggressively trades lower, we have a break in market structure here, inside
258 |173 |00:30:06 ~-~-> 00:30:17 |the range of this low is broken here, this is not going to be a void. Okay, this is not going to be a fair value gap, it's not a SEBI, because we have a break in
259 |174 |00:30:17 ~-~-> 00:30:27 |structure right here. So if double use this old, whoa, that's the basis of the city. And we'll look at that and go lower timeframes, then we have another level
260 |175 |00:30:27 ~-~-> 00:30:36 |Distribution all the way down into just above the level, we are aiming for that old daily low. And finally, we swept it. And then we get the smart money
261 |176 |00:30:36 ~-~-> 00:30:45 |reversal, low risk by Re accumulation re accumulation and then a run higher back to the original consolidation prior to this initial drop down. So all these
262 |177 |00:30:45 ~-~-> 00:30:58 |elements seen on the hourly chart are really, really handsome in the form of price action, it, it's a lovely thing to look at price and see signatures, and
263 |178 |00:30:58 ~-~-> 00:31:05 |price delivery that repeat themselves over and over and over again. And that's what's important about studying these models with a hindsight approach for a
264 |179 |00:31:05 ~-~-> 00:31:15 |long time. Because it will get you very close to reading price action, because you've seen so many examples. And in looking at the 15 minute timeframe doesn't
265 |180 |00:31:15 ~-~-> 00:31:24 |look too much different from here, just the thin up a lot more in areas that doesn't look so thin over here. So we're going to take a look at this in detail.
266 |181 |00:31:24 ~-~-> 00:31:34 |Moving on into our next slide. The weekly chart here. Again, this is the old low analysis a daily low today, but it's a weekly low that we're targeting and
267 |182 |00:31:34 ~-~-> 00:31:47 |expansion down to. Okay, so the daily chart on the right hand side is that individual single daily, low, but it's a weekly low here for that particular
268 |183 |00:31:47 ~-~-> 00:31:59 |week. But this is the low we're going to be targeting. And this shaded area is this single weekly candle. Now notice before I get into this, that weekly close
269 |184 |00:31:59 ~-~-> 00:32:10 |is well off of its low. And that's okay. Because we mentioned on this week and Wednesday that we have seen enough of a rally on the dollar index. And I didn't
270 |185 |00:32:10 ~-~-> 00:32:22 |feel that we would make that full run higher on the weekly Sibi to be filled in. So a consequent encouragement. And the day of the week, leading into Thursday,
271 |186 |00:32:22 ~-~-> 00:32:33 |Thursday generally makes the weekly higher low in a New York session. All those factors were there to help me feel confident and telling you that I didn't think
272 |187 |00:32:33 ~-~-> 00:32:42 |we would see a continuation on Thursday and Friday into the dollar and in running up in filling that full weekly Sibi. Now we ended up getting a slightly
273 |188 |00:32:42 ~-~-> 00:32:52 |very, very slightly modest, higher high on Friday, but it was on the basis of s&p divergence. So cable was not willing to make a lower low Euro did with the
274 |189 |00:32:52 ~-~-> 00:33:01 |higher high met in the dollar. So we have an SMT divergence, USD X SMT divergence between cable and dollar. And that was one of the catalysts but after
275 |190 |00:33:01 ~-~-> 00:33:09 |we traded into a consequent curtailment on the dollar index. So that's the reason why from Wednesday of this particular week of discussion, and this week
276 |191 |00:33:09 ~-~-> 00:33:23 |of trading, we get that so slacking of the bullishness very short term for the dollar index which allows by side up to be offered easily on foreign currencies.
277 |192 |00:33:23 ~-~-> 00:33:32 |In other words this again we I'm saying all this to remind you that we're not trying to predict the weekly close all we're doing is trying to get the rain to
278 |193 |00:33:32 ~-~-> 00:33:45 |expand to allow for us to get 30 pips. Okay, so this weekly candle is just simply the daily chart being shaded here in this shaded box. Okay, so inside
279 |194 |00:33:45 ~-~-> 00:33:53 |that opening on Sunday, we're going to be looking to see okay, who opens here on Sunday Great. From that opening, do we still have 50 pips before we get to a
280 |195 |00:33:53 ~-~-> 00:34:02 |level that would be ran out for liquidity? This is a strong liquidity. Why would I expect to go lower because there's nothing to anticipate going higher we've
281 |196 |00:34:02 ~-~-> 00:34:12 |already been breaking down. Bearish order blocks have been supporting price. Bearish SEBI have been filled in or traded to and expansion lower afterwards. So
282 |197 |00:34:12 ~-~-> 00:34:20 |everything is indicating the institutional flow is bearish for New Zealand dollar ahead of Sunday's opening. So when we see something's opening in here,
283 |198 |00:34:20 ~-~-> 00:34:32 |right away, we know that this is our eye goes right to here. So this is the drawn liquidity right away. We can see roughly at 6685. Okay, 6585 is above this
284 |199 |00:34:32 ~-~-> 00:34:41 |level. So we already know that we have 100 pips available to us. So again, high probability scenario is met, that threshold is met right away. It's moving into
285 |200 |00:34:41 ~-~-> 00:34:52 |a another perspective. The daily chart now is on the left hand side again, that same range in here, that shaded area. We want to look inside that shaded area on
286 |201 |00:34:52 ~-~-> 00:35:04 |the basis of imbalances. So we want to see the market expand lower and then return back up into an internal Orange liquidity pool, we see that here. We have
287 |202 |00:35:04 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |an old, low here, price breaks down through it. Okay, that's the that's the beginning of the imbalance. And then we have this candle here that's creates
288 |203 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:32 |that short term low. This high. Do we look at that high to this low? For a city? No, we look at this candle is high, because it opens and has a smaller wick up
289 |204 |00:35:32 ~-~-> 00:35:42 |very small and it starts to deliver down. So buyside was offered up just a little bit here. So from that candles high in this candles low that is our city
290 |205 |00:35:42 ~-~-> 00:35:52 |or sell side unbalanced by side of inefficiency. Trading to this level here, that's enough for Phil. But you have to factor in a stop that would be above
291 |206 |00:35:52 ~-~-> 00:36:03 |this high here, because that's your swing high prior to using an hourly chart. Or if you want to wait for the entire filling of the SEBI, you can do that. And
292 |207 |00:36:03 ~-~-> 00:36:12 |that will allow you to have a smaller stop loss. And you can leverage more of your account but still keeping it within the same percentage of risk. You're not
293 |208 |00:36:12 ~-~-> 00:36:18 |just simply saying, Well, you know, I got a better feel today around this one. And so when 10% of my account at risk,
294 |209 |00:36:19 ~-~-> 00:36:30 |everything's relative, so you want to be looking at an entry point as early as this high here, which is the beginning of the touch of this low or the bottom of
295 |210 |00:36:30 ~-~-> 00:36:39 |the city. Okay, so we have one single pass down on this Southside delivery. So our internal range liquidity is tagged right here. Why is it internal range,
296 |211 |00:36:40 ~-~-> 00:36:48 |because we have this swing high, we drop down. So with our ranges from this high down to this low and it's retracing within that range, it's doing so on the
297 |212 |00:36:48 ~-~-> 00:36:59 |basis that it goes above the 50% level. So now we're in a premium. So in the premium range of the pdra matrix, we are at a internal range liquidity pool.
298 |213 |00:37:00 ~-~-> 00:37:14 |This is a pool of liquidity waiting to be utilized. Okay, institutional, not in the form of retail. What I just said to you is a stark contrast to what you
299 |214 |00:37:14 ~-~-> 00:37:22 |learn in retail trading. Everyone in the retail capacity knows that above this old high, there will be buy stops and they run it, those buy sets have been
300 |215 |00:37:22 ~-~-> 00:37:32 |taken and it goes lower. Institutionally speaking, this is a liquidity pool, because it's going to provide the basis of traders that chase that market up,
301 |216 |00:37:33 ~-~-> 00:37:42 |they're going to see all this running up and they're gonna buy into that buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. That's why when we see the markets fill in fair
302 |217 |00:37:42 ~-~-> 00:37:56 |value gaps, SEBI and Vissi. They're usually filling one large, fast candles, because it's injecting a mentality in the scope of retail traders, that this
303 |218 |00:37:56 ~-~-> 00:38:08 |market is on fire it's taking off. And if you study all of the filling of the array gaps, or liquidity voids or severe Bisi. The the Hallmark Signature, to
304 |219 |00:38:08 ~-~-> 00:38:18 |them filling is speed. Because it's offering an enticement to traders, they're watching price. They're st takeoff, they want confirmation, okay, they see this
305 |220 |00:38:18 ~-~-> 00:38:26 |low here, they either bullish maybe they think it's gonna go higher. Great. And then we start seeing this big candle tear off. Okay, they're only seeing this
306 |221 |00:38:26 ~-~-> 00:38:38 |quick, sudden movement on an hourly chart, and I'm thinking, wow, it's going to go above here? Well, no, you want to see the price action internally, okay, in
307 |222 |00:38:38 ~-~-> 00:38:45 |your mind, you want to say, Okay, there's an imbalance here? Is it slowly creeping up to fill that in? Or is it quickly getting up there, if it's quickly
308 |223 |00:38:45 ~-~-> 00:38:53 |getting up there, then you know, you probably got a good trade. And it's on the basis of internal range liquidity. So right away the shaded area here, every
309 |224 |00:38:53 ~-~-> 00:39:02 |shaded box on this now, lower timeframe chart is indicating a 30 pip range. That's the basis or the framework for this model. I'm not trying to teach that
310 |225 |00:39:02 ~-~-> 00:39:13 |you take 15 trades a week, okay? You only need just one of them. One, if you risk 2% of your account, which is extremely high immediately, but if you get
311 |226 |00:39:13 ~-~-> 00:39:26 |good debts, and you risk 2% of your trade trading account. And you do a one for one, you don't even need a two to one or three to one, okay? The folks that say
312 |227 |00:39:26 ~-~-> 00:39:37 |you have to have that model gearing to be profitable. I guess he do require that if you're trading with retail stuff that just doesn't have a lot of continuity.
313 |228 |00:39:38 ~-~-> 00:39:46 |The consistency is lacking. But when you look at price from an institutional perspective, it's very generic. It repeats itself over and over and over again.
314 |229 |00:39:46 ~-~-> 00:39:56 |So having a model it's one to one that has a high strike rate, doesn't concern me. I don't worry about that. In fact, again, most of the things that you guys
315 |230 |00:39:56 ~-~-> 00:40:09 |watch me do on Twitter, there are many times one to one one or one and a half to one, okay, where I'm not, I'm not required to do multiple ARVs to get a
316 |231 |00:40:09 ~-~-> 00:40:18 |profitable outcome. So just again, that's another misnomer for people that don't know what you're doing. Okay? I guess, statistically, those probabilities will
317 |232 |00:40:18 ~-~-> 00:40:28 |help. But they still blow your account, if you do it over and over again with stuff that doesn't have constitute consistency or continuity. So if we're going
318 |233 |00:40:28 ~-~-> 00:40:37 |short here with internal rates, liquidity, we're exiting at external range liquidity, what would that be? Well, remember the drawers down here. We're
319 |234 |00:40:37 ~-~-> 00:40:49 |getting an up here. We're looking to offset at a low below an old low. Okay, well, we have a session while here. 30 pips from entry here. 30 pips down, there
320 |235 |00:40:49 ~-~-> 00:41:00 |you go, we have a run on liquidity. There's your 30 pips, you're done. In just a few hours, your week is done. It's over, you've met your criteria for doubling
321 |236 |00:41:00 ~-~-> 00:41:08 |your account every single year, targeting 6% Return compounded every single month, your equity grows and doubles every single year, start with $1,000.
322 |237 |00:41:08 ~-~-> 00:41:19 |Theoretically, it's over a million dollars in 10 years. Now, that does not consider or factor in taxation, obviously. But if you can set up your account,
323 |238 |00:41:19 ~-~-> 00:41:29 |with a tax deferment or an IRA type of vehicle, you're you're you're killing it. Because you're you're really seeing exponential growth. And that's this dome on
324 |239 |00:41:29 ~-~-> 00:41:38 |trade. Now, if you know what you're doing, and you see that we have a breaking structure here, we have a single pass down here, from this candles high to this
325 |240 |00:41:38 ~-~-> 00:41:45 |candles low, we have a small little fair value gap, the market will want to rebalance that we see that happening here. And notice it does not need to go up
326 |241 |00:41:45 ~-~-> 00:41:57 |in here. This void does not need to be filled. Why? Because we are inside of institutional order flow that has broken this session low. So this expansion
327 |242 |00:41:57 ~-~-> 00:42:06 |down, it's only going to need what we know in retail is classic support broken is now resistance. That's when that stuff works. That's the only time that stuff
328 |243 |00:42:06 ~-~-> 00:42:15 |works any other time, try doing it and see how well you do. Because if it was just that easy, everybody would be rich. Okay, everybody we make and mentorship
329 |244 |00:42:15 ~-~-> 00:42:22 |groups and in selling courses and writing books. But sadly, there isn't a whole lot of people doing it and being consistently profitable. Alright, so we have no
330 |245 |00:42:22 ~-~-> 00:42:32 |opportunity here. If we went short on the basis of rebalancing back to this low, the fair value gap is here not seeing this as liquidity void. A lot of folks
331 |246 |00:42:32 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |that have studied my free stuff or went through some of the mentorship and quit. I had a guy sent me emails that Yeah, I figured it all out. I'm gonna I'm gonna
332 |247 |00:42:41 ~-~-> 00:42:51 |make it go right now. And he's only went to one three. Okay, I'll see you in a couple of weeks, you'll be want to come back in the level of entry here. Again,
333 |248 |00:42:51 ~-~-> 00:43:00 |if we're looking for 30 pips, it's only taken us down to this level here. We don't even get down to this level yet. And we still already have 30 pips in the
334 |249 |00:43:00 ~-~-> 00:43:14 |bag. If, if an astute trader were looking at this, knowing that we have an entry point here, they could take 30 pips off here, fund themselves, okay? Put their
335 |250 |00:43:14 ~-~-> 00:43:26 |stop at breakeven on the entry. Why? Because we've taken a first profit, you got to take the risk out of the trade at that point, you have to do it. Because you
336 |251 |00:43:26 ~-~-> 00:43:33 |can be wrong, and it can all go back to screaming, Nokia, and what have you done, you've paid yourself for your time and risk. Now, it did not pay out what
337 |252 |00:43:33 ~-~-> 00:43:42 |you could have seen as a maximum payout. But people that think that way, are thinking that too myopically because you're assuming that you're going to win
338 |253 |00:43:42 ~-~-> 00:43:55 |all the time. And that's foolish, I don't win every time. So we had to build in these quote unquote, crutches for human, the human aspect or factor in us, all
339 |254 |00:43:55 ~-~-> 00:44:07 |of us is going to mess it up. So when the market provides you the 30 pips, you take it, okay? If you're growing in this model, okay, you start and say you'd
340 |255 |00:44:07 ~-~-> 00:44:19 |like this model, you must start with this one. Maybe you can take 15 pips off when you get it to take that initial uneasiness off, and the 30 pips will be
341 |256 |00:44:19 ~-~-> 00:44:29 |your full profit. And you don't do any of this down here. The next level of practicing and building in that would be taking first profit of 30 and then
342 |257 |00:44:29 ~-~-> 00:44:38 |leaving a portion on to get down to your original Terminus. The highest form would be taking in an entry and then waiting for any other secondary entry. And
343 |258 |00:44:38 ~-~-> 00:44:47 |splitting the position that you started with the initial entry. Say for instance, that you did. Just for the sake of argument, say you did one standard
344 |259 |00:44:47 ~-~-> 00:44:56 |lot up here. Okay. So you're short one standard lot. You've taken some measure of profit profits off, the market trades down a little bit low and it comes back
345 |260 |00:44:56 ~-~-> 00:45:05 |and give you an opportunity and right away you know, this is an option I can I can get in Again, you can add that same portion you took off right back here.
346 |261 |00:45:06 ~-~-> 00:45:13 |Now at first glance is gonna tell me Well, why would you want to do that stupid might just want to hold it, you don't know, you don't know what it's going to
347 |262 |00:45:13 ~-~-> 00:45:23 |do. So you want to fund yourself and then remove the risk at this point here, you can now put the second portion back on that you just took off. Okay,
348 |263 |00:45:23 ~-~-> 00:45:33 |original split from your profit entry here and target here, when it comes back up and gives you an entry here, or you can do this, sell it here. Say you did
349 |264 |00:45:33 ~-~-> 00:45:42 |one standard lot here and the mark comes back up. You don't do any partials. Say you want to do a trade in this price point here and you want to use 15 pips stop
350 |265 |00:45:42 ~-~-> 00:45:52 |loss. Okay, well, if you're getting out here, on a full exit, that's a two to one. If you enter here with 15 pips, and then you wait for the retracement to
351 |266 |00:45:52 ~-~-> 00:46:01 |offer another opportunity, because we haven't reached this level down here yet or Terminus. You can not take partial profits. But you could add an additional
352 |267 |00:46:01 ~-~-> 00:46:11 |five minis. Five minis here and one standard here. You have 15 minis at work from this price point here.
353 |268 |00:46:12 ~-~-> 00:46:23 |When price drops down, you have a larger position and you didn't factor in any partials. So there's several different ways you can model this for yourself and
354 |269 |00:46:23 ~-~-> 00:46:35 |make it as well aggressive as you want or you can dial it back and be as conservative as you want it to be. Okay on an hourly chart on the left hand side
355 |270 |00:46:35 ~-~-> 00:46:45 |we can see a little bit of these areas here with more refinement with the 15 minute chart on the right hand side. We have a bearish order block after the
356 |271 |00:46:45 ~-~-> 00:46:55 |turning point up here. Rebalancing, wait for the break down, trades back up to here up candles, trades right back to here, boom, there's your sell signal.
357 |272 |00:46:56 ~-~-> 00:47:05 |Okay, we're trading inside of internal range liquidity bearish order block selling short there then we can use a stop loss or variable here so it doesn't
358 |273 |00:47:05 ~-~-> 00:47:14 |have to be a large stop loss. So right away we can start seeing that it could be a 12 pip stop loss, which is about standard on my low end I don't think a five
359 |274 |00:47:14 ~-~-> 00:47:23 |pip stop loss is realistic as workers don't open up spread and tag you and they can do that and try doing it and see if I'm not telling you the truth. That's
360 |275 |00:47:23 ~-~-> 00:47:30 |four pips is as low as I'll go i comfortably like 15 pips stop losses if I'm gonna go real really, really tight, but I have no problem with doing 20 and 30
361 |276 |00:47:30 ~-~-> 00:47:42 |pips stop losses even if the trade can be done with a tighter stop. I do so many things in a day for an evening time. I can't be watching every tiny tiny little
362 |277 |00:47:42 ~-~-> 00:47:51 |tick so I want to have some flexibility and sounds like a real move to knock me out and ain't worried about if it does. But we can see the bearish order block
363 |278 |00:47:51 ~-~-> 00:48:02 |here and then a nice run below the short term low volume and bounce See that right there no candle body price comes right back up rebalances that point that
364 |279 |00:48:02 ~-~-> 00:48:11 |could be your initial entry or we can use the bearish order block and once price starts to show a breakdown come right back up bearish order block probabilities
365 |280 |00:48:11 ~-~-> 00:48:23 |of you missing this trade is considerable if you're waiting for that this is the ideal entry but if you're looking for Otterbox to be your basis, there you go
366 |281 |00:48:23 ~-~-> 00:48:36 |your internal range liquidity entry point is there again from this entry at this old low volume and balance entering here 30 pips takes you here you're taking
367 |282 |00:48:36 ~-~-> 00:48:50 |your profit rate on this candle at 30 pips we have another one in here we have a single pass with this down close candle next candles high is here. So we have a
368 |283 |00:48:50 ~-~-> 00:49:01 |fair value gap right in here. Price fills it you can sell there and 30 pips down here and the problem with this last one is you may not have gotten out with the
369 |284 |00:49:01 ~-~-> 00:49:10 |spread in fact it's very likely that you never got out even though it went to Terminus so when it trades down to these levels this is why you want to be
370 |285 |00:49:10 ~-~-> 00:49:21 |taking consideration with exiting ahead of the level. So even though this does breach the low and it does breach that old daily low and the low that was on the
371 |286 |00:49:21 ~-~-> 00:49:33 |weekly by one pip it does this check your own data, you'll see this is enough to warrant an exit the fact that we're trading down to it, I would already be out
372 |287 |00:49:33 ~-~-> 00:49:43 |of there 1015 pips a bit above it somewhere so I see that level here 10 or 15 pips I'm up here getting out. Because I'm not trying to be Mr. Wizard. Okay. And
373 |288 |00:49:43 ~-~-> 00:49:52 |try to get every piece of the pie. I don't know, gorging yourself with all the sugar. It's gonna make you unhealthy and fat, and I don't want to be unhealthy
374 |289 |00:49:52 ~-~-> 00:50:05 |as a trader. I want to lean real high calorie, high protein high density in nutrition, okay, from the pounds of flesh that I take out the marketplace, I
375 |290 |00:50:05 ~-~-> 00:50:16 |don't want junk food, okay, and the sweet tooth that everybody gets wanting to be the lowest entry and exits on their terms. That says, to me, I have wasted a
376 |291 |00:50:16 ~-~-> 00:50:27 |lot of time doing that. And my exit strategy is always taking something ahead of the level. Now I may leave something on that may get stopped out, or never come
377 |292 |00:50:27 ~-~-> 00:50:36 |to an exit, and I'm just gonna bail on it without being stopped or reaching my target. You seen a lot of that in the Twitter. So there's some balancing act
378 |293 |00:50:36 ~-~-> 00:50:46 |that takes place all the time, if you're, if I know that level down here, okay, is that all daily low. I know everyone sees that same level. And I don't want to
379 |294 |00:50:46 ~-~-> 00:50:55 |be down there trying to get my order executed when everybody else is rushing to get theirs to because price may not spend a lot of time down here. But as its
380 |295 |00:50:55 ~-~-> 00:51:05 |approaching that, if I'm exiting as it's sliding into home plate, okay, I don't care, I'm getting out, I'll take a triple, I don't need to get a grand slam home
381 |296 |00:51:05 ~-~-> 00:51:13 |run, I don't need to, you know, run all the bases and get hung on my single swing, I want to be able to be consistent, okay. And consistency is not always
382 |297 |00:51:13 ~-~-> 00:51:24 |hitting homeruns a double or triple. A lot of singles in a row still build your equity. But you don't need the homerun analysis payoff, you don't need that. And
383 |298 |00:51:24 ~-~-> 00:51:33 |this model is to teach you that if you have 30 pips in mind, you take those 30 pips when it gives it to pay yourself, remove the risk, and then see what
384 |299 |00:51:33 ~-~-> 00:51:44 |happens. But if it gets close to that terminus, just know that because of the capacity of the data we work within, it's all retail, okay? So, interbank is
385 |300 |00:51:44 ~-~-> 00:51:55 |never really agreeing with 90% of the retail brokers is some measure of spread between the time and the price. So just know that that to what you're dealing
386 |301 |00:51:55 ~-~-> 00:52:05 |with all the time. And because I know that I'm always getting out 10 to 15 pips ahead of the levels that I'm looking for. And I'm okay with that. It may not
387 |302 |00:52:05 ~-~-> 00:52:16 |look as precise. You know, if you look at the the ledger, but the consistencies there, because I deal with that same element, every time I take a trade, if I
388 |303 |00:52:16 ~-~-> 00:52:24 |knew how hard levels in the marketplace, I'm targeting, I want to be out as it's sliding in the bulk of my position, I want to be out of that. And then I'll
389 |304 |00:52:24 ~-~-> 00:52:31 |leave a little tracer in there to see if I can get something else a little leader in the water, if you will. And if I can catch a runner, then I have
390 |305 |00:52:31 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |something to appease that that gambler in me, okay, because you got to keep him keep him at bay. And if you give him a little bit of action, okay. To me, at
391 |306 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:52 |least for me, it's helped over the years. Otherwise, I want to do a lot more. And because it's been spurred on by me not holding for my original targets or
392 |307 |00:52:52 ~-~-> 00:53:04 |beyond. So I that's how I balanced the three people in my head, the analyst, the trader, and the gambler. So we looked at this model, and right away, you
393 |308 |00:53:04 ~-~-> 00:53:12 |probably thinking, well, this is not a whole lot of new things. And that's supposed to be happening. You're all charter members, I want you to go through
394 |309 |00:53:12 ~-~-> 00:53:25 |all of the currency pairs from last week. Okay, and use this model as a basis and study just this past week's data, okay, and look at what you've had
395 |310 |00:53:25 ~-~-> 00:53:34 |available to you. You've learned a great deal about fair value gaps busy in Sydney in the last couple of weeks. Consequent encouragement, when a certain
396 |311 |00:53:34 ~-~-> 00:53:46 |fair a gap is to be considered, you've learned now, obviously, when a void is not to be considered. Okay, when we look at those factors, it builds a lot of
397 |312 |00:53:46 ~-~-> 00:53:57 |context to what we are looking for in price action. And slowly but surely, all of you have been moving from a neophyte to where you are right now. And it's
398 |313 |00:53:57 ~-~-> 00:54:05 |normal for you to still feel a little bit of apprehension about getting in and saying, Oh, I know I'm doing right now. Because there's models still being
399 |314 |00:54:05 ~-~-> 00:54:16 |delivered. We haven't even worked them down into a trading plan yet. These are all just simple price action models to start looking to see what it is that you
400 |315 |00:54:16 ~-~-> 00:54:27 |want to do with your trading and you will gravitate to one. If this model doesn't tickle your fancy. Some of the elements I gave you in this model might
401 |316 |00:54:27 ~-~-> 00:54:38 |help spur on the inspiration to create your own model that would be very close to this. The number one contributing
402 |317 |00:54:39 ~-~-> 00:54:49 |signature in all my setups is basically a drawn liquidity. I want to know where the market is going to reach for because I know how institutions work and in new
403 |318 |00:54:49 ~-~-> 00:54:59 |what IP does trying to do if whatever model you build, or agree on, okay, he may subscribe to one of the ones I'm providing you or you may not be any of those
404 |319 |00:54:59 ~-~-> 00:55:10 |things. But they may be inspirations off of them, you're going to find the underlying theme is we're trying to predict where price is going to go on the
405 |320 |00:55:10 ~-~-> 00:55:20 |basis of liquidity, not on the basis of price patterns. We're not trying to do measure moves, we're not trying to do Fibonacci, we're not trying to do harmonic
406 |321 |00:55:20 ~-~-> 00:55:28 |patterns. We're not trying to do supply and demand, we're not trying to do any classical retail theory at all. All we're doing is saying, what's the largest
407 |322 |00:55:28 ~-~-> 00:55:39 |probability right now is it to move higher, or lower. And if you apply that to a weekly chart, you've already factored in the biggest odds in your favor, because
408 |323 |00:55:39 ~-~-> 00:55:48 |if that weekly chart is going to move in the direction you're saying, 50, to 100 pips, that's where if you look at all your losing trades, many of them are going
409 |324 |00:55:48 ~-~-> 00:55:59 |to be in a contrarian stance to that now obviously had the benefit of hindsight, go back and look at that. So it is important that all of our analysis starts on
410 |325 |00:55:59 ~-~-> 00:56:07 |that. Now, I could do a lot of different things on a lower timeframe chart and never even factor weekly chart. And I can do a lot of things and not even refer
411 |326 |00:56:07 ~-~-> 00:56:16 |to a weekly chart, but I'm teaching you as a mentor. To do this with high probability. The only way that probability becomes a realization in your trading
412 |327 |00:56:16 ~-~-> 00:56:24 |is when you look for that weekly chart to move, because it's such a large timeframe, it spends a lot of time moving in that direction, because of the
413 |328 |00:56:24 ~-~-> 00:56:33 |weekly chart, the ranges are going to be larger. And since the ranges are going to be larger institutions are not trying to get these 20 Pip runs that you see
414 |329 |00:56:33 ~-~-> 00:56:43 |me doing. I'm just taking small little surgical strikes as a larger move that I'm using with this model here. Okay, so if that weekly chart is going to
415 |330 |00:56:43 ~-~-> 00:56:54 |displace 50, to 100 pips, that's more meaningful for institutions to work with him, because that is, well, the easiest way to say it is, there's enough
416 |331 |00:56:54 ~-~-> 00:57:04 |movement for them to find profitability in that versus a 20 Pip move or 15, Pip intraday scalp, they don't have enough flexibility to move their size through
417 |332 |00:57:04 ~-~-> 00:57:14 |that, but 50 to 100 pips, they can move sighs inside of that. And it's important that you know, that half a penny to a four Penny move is, in my opinion. And I
418 |333 |00:57:14 ~-~-> 00:57:23 |don't really have any statistics, except for my own experience to back this up. That's about the minimum threshold for institutional displacement. So if we see
419 |334 |00:57:23 ~-~-> 00:57:33 |a 50, Pip move higher or lower, you know, there's institutions involved. Now, if it's going to move 50, to 100, pips to a liquidity pool, that can be targeted
420 |335 |00:57:33 ~-~-> 00:57:46 |easily relative to a daily and weekly chart. It's a loaded deal. It's a loaded deal, and you know how to use it now. So bias, directional bias starts on that
421 |336 |00:57:46 ~-~-> 00:57:59 |basis. And probabilities are formed on that sofa, you got this model. And you see here on the kill zones, the overlapping of the setups occur during the
422 |337 |00:57:59 ~-~-> 00:58:10 |specific times of the day Asia, London, New York, trading to a specific price level. So we we understand here in this mentorship, there is a time and price
423 |338 |00:58:10 ~-~-> 00:58:20 |theory, nothing happens randomly. The markets going to draw where there are orders, what orders, the orders that allow offset distribution, that would be
424 |339 |00:58:20 ~-~-> 00:58:30 |profitable for the most recent displacement. In other words, if the market has moved from a higher level down lower, it's going to a specific level to offer
425 |340 |00:58:30 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |liquidity for those individuals that have allowed price to move in their favor going lower, it's going to attack an old low or it's going to go down to an
426 |341 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:49 |internal range liquidity liquidity pool in the form of lower level fair a gap, lower level liquidity void, or it's going to a bullish order block in the
427 |342 |00:58:49 ~-~-> 00:58:54 |reverse said when it's bullish. So if we found this insightful and I'll talk to you next time, wish you good luck and good trading