87-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 9 - Bread and Butter Sell Setups

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-17 10:11
1 00:00:08,069 --> 00:00:16,319 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is less than seven, the May 2017 ICT mentorship, amplified day trading and scalping bread and butter sell setups.
2 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:36,750 Day trading opportunities and scalping remedy looking at consistent small price movements for sell program, offset distribution and redistribution and sell
3 00:00:36,750 --> 00:00:48,810 programs Epta will perform one of two price engine models accumulate buyside liquidity for repricing above and on high. Buy stops will be triggered inducing
4 00:00:48,810 --> 00:01:02,970 counterparty buyers to pair short entries with price will seek a lower short term discount array to offset positions. We accumulate fair value in
5 00:01:02,970 --> 00:01:16,920 retracements higher at premium arrays. Week short holders will be squeezed in the retracement higher. Price will seek to expand lower to a short term discount
6 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:32,820 array to offset positions including biocide, liquidity, offset distribution. It will reprice the market above in Ojai to promote buy stops to market orders that
7 00:01:32,820 --> 00:01:42,660 would be residing there for current short holders. This in essence, engineers buyers at premium prices do open float above that old high may also have buy
8 00:01:42,660 --> 00:01:53,190 stops for breakout systems that wish to buy on strength. This model is called offset distribution. Its primary purpose is to offset current short holders and
9 00:01:53,220 --> 00:02:01,230 or induce more buyers at a premium price. The model has seen frequently embarrassed market conditions and while higher timeframe institutional order
10 00:02:01,230 --> 00:02:11,700 flow is suggesting lower prices. Typically offset distribution models unfold quickly and you must learn to anticipate them at key highs intraday.
11 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:28,650 Providing banks new shorting opportunities redistribution if there will reprice the market higher to a fair value price array to provide Smart Money premium
12 00:02:28,650 --> 00:02:37,170 pricing for short entries. The market will be bearish from an institutional perspective and many times unfolds after a recent buy stop rate. The retracement
13 00:02:37,170 --> 00:02:45,750 higher and price will place pain on current short holders and tends to induce buying. Thus providing buyside liquidity to pair Smart Money short entries with
14 00:02:46,950 --> 00:02:55,740 this model is called redistribution. Its primary purpose is to redistribute new short entries and or induce more buyers at premium pricing. The model is seen
15 00:02:55,740 --> 00:03:04,290 frequently in bearish market conditions and while higher timeframe institutional order flow is suggesting lower prices typically redistribution models unfold
16 00:03:04,290 --> 00:03:16,770 quickly and you must learn to anticipate them at key premium arrays intraday offset distribution Okay like I mentioned in the bread and butter buy setups
17 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:33,720 we're not going to rehash all this is obviously everything you'd seen in the previous teaching just in reverse and same thing for fair value so everything we
18 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:49,440 saw for the bread and butter by setups just being reversed for sell setups here all the parameters pips per trade how many hours the whole time is all all the
19 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:59,760 statistics here applied the same just reversed for what you saw in the buy setups and everything that we're looking for for bread butter sell setups
20 00:04:00,180 --> 00:04:10,830 strongly related to kill zone setups they must occur inside the kill zone. We're not looking to scalp outside the highest volume session times of the day London
21 00:04:10,830 --> 00:04:23,250 Open New York open Okay, down close days or bearish days we're gonna be revisiting the daily range just for completeness sake. When the market is poised
22 00:04:23,250 --> 00:04:33,000 to trade lower based on higher Time Frame institutional order flow, in essence we expect the open to be at or near the high of the daily range. There can be a
23 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:38,940 small rally about the opening price and again the opening price can be zero GMT or the midnight candle in New York
24 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:56,790 and London Open post the initial Leg Lower intraday, and then price will wait for New York open. So the initial swing can see a rally above the opening price
25 00:04:56,790 --> 00:05:08,220 doesn't have to. But generally that first lag in price is lower and inside that initial price swing we'll be looking for or we look for let's say that way
26 00:05:09,570 --> 00:05:26,430 London scalps just small little retracement that takes place between 5am and 7am in New York time. This is the London lunch. It's pre New York open and our New
27 00:05:26,430 --> 00:05:36,210 York open we see the second leg generally of the daily range unfold. And usually if it's a high formed in London we're seeing the continuation going on in New
28 00:05:36,210 --> 00:05:41,130 York until price hits the five the average daily range
29 00:05:58,290 --> 00:06:12,840 until the five the average daily range low is reached then there's a retracement off of the blood that forms between 10 o'clock and noon New York time
30 00:06:18,150 --> 00:06:29,670 Okay, so the London Open, are we looking for that scalp the sell short end during the London session. And when higher timeframe institutional order flow is
31 00:06:29,670 --> 00:06:42,840 bearish, we anticipate london session high that day formation. The open at zero GMT or 12am in New York can see a protraction phase higher in price. This can be
32 00:06:42,840 --> 00:06:59,010 scalped from the open or just below it prior to 1am New York time. The classic London Judas swing higher can be scalped even easier. The market retrace between
33 00:06:59,010 --> 00:07:12,780 5am and 7am New York time and this can provide a short term scalp entry once a premium Ray is hit. Even after the ideal Judas entry point has passed, a five
34 00:07:12,780 --> 00:07:26,670 minute retracement can be entered short on to scalp the remainder of the London open to 5am New York time. See here an example of scalping the london session.
35 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:43,620 This is a redistribution price trades up to a fair value level pay gap or shorter block that nature price comes down to an old low and you can see that
36 00:07:43,740 --> 00:08:01,740 offset positions they're all inside of the London Open kill zone scalping in New York session when London Open confirms institutional sponsorship on the short
37 00:08:01,740 --> 00:08:11,820 side and post the daily high we expect to see New York open to continue lower unless a higher timeframe discount array has been hit intraday and or the
38 00:08:11,820 --> 00:08:24,810 average daily range low is reached. We look for the intraday swings lower to determine premium range arrays to go short at in the New York Hills I'm using
39 00:08:24,810 --> 00:08:35,670 the 8:20am New York time for CME open to anticipate the New York Judas swing to fade. targets will be the five day average daily range low and the next higher
40 00:08:35,670 --> 00:08:48,720 timeframe discount array found on a four hour 60 minute basis. If ADR low is reached prior to 10am take 80% off and leave a small portion on to capture any
41 00:08:48,720 --> 00:09:04,710 range expansion that may fail. And as it exists example of scalping short, the New York session London has created the high the day trades lower consolidation
42 00:09:04,710 --> 00:09:13,650 into a small retracement a 20 Am CME open the retracement of the Judas swing goes up into a fair value gap and bearish order block. There's your
43 00:09:14,310 --> 00:09:30,540 redistribution and price trades down into a fair value gap below price at the time of the entry in New York. Okay scalping to London and close. When New York
44 00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:40,200 and London sessions have moved in tandem, and defy the average daily range low has been reached. And it is at least 10:30am New York Time expect the
45 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:51,090 retracement off the daily low. Again, it has to be between 10:30am and 1pm New York time. Now ideally, price should exceed defy the average daily range for
46 00:09:51,090 --> 00:10:01,950 this type of trade. So you really want to see an expansion on the daily range. And we'd look for a five minute failure swing at the low end And a bullish order
47 00:10:01,950 --> 00:10:15,510 block tanter on risking 10 pips below the daily low and targeting 20 to 30% of the total daily range in retracement higher. Keep in mind this trade can be very
48 00:10:15,510 --> 00:10:25,980 difficult to see panning out some days as the range can and could expand far more than the average daily range below. Ideally take one for one reward risk
49 00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:42,840 targets based on a required stop at no more than 20 pips and here's an example of that London close the trade price makes a high in the London close time
50 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:54,510 period makes a failure swing to get up to the high the day and fails, it's a redistribution during the London close time period price trades down returns
51 00:10:54,540 --> 00:11:00,120 into 20% of the daily range for London close objective
52 00:11:05,399 --> 00:11:20,069 scalping the Asian open when the market is bearish, began to short at or just above the zero GMT opening price and expect an expansion of 15 to 20 pips lower
53 00:11:20,339 --> 00:11:30,929 as the Asian range is established. Asian sessions can be traditionally very narrow and while this trade has proven profitable in the past, like London close
54 00:11:30,929 --> 00:11:39,569 trades, we're looking at the lowest volatile periods of the daily range formation. Always aim for 15 or 20 pips in this session as the range can be
55 00:11:39,569 --> 00:11:53,639 limited. On the basis it will be the Asian range formation. Take for exit one scalps in this time of day. It's not optimal to expect a second leg in price,
56 00:11:53,819 --> 00:12:07,409 avoid greed here and if you're fortunate to get 20 pips, be content and exit. And here's an example of the Asian session opening and selling short at the
57 00:12:07,409 --> 00:12:24,359 opening of 8pm, New York time for sell. Alright, so about five the average daily range, the average daily range for ADR does not have to fill for the day. Just
58 00:12:24,359 --> 00:12:34,529 because we have the indicator on our chart just because we make it available. It just see an overlay on price action, price is not going to always trade to that
59 00:12:34,529 --> 00:12:47,129 level. And many times it'll fall just short of it, or wildly exceeded. So it's a general rule of thumb. Again, it's the average, not the absolute range, okay,
60 00:12:47,129 --> 00:12:57,599 it's the average daily range. So it can be a little less, it can be a little more, but it gives us a range to reach for where we can blend PDE arrays on the
61 00:12:57,599 --> 00:13:12,479 lower timeframe, and up to a six minute or four hour chart. So by blending these things, also blending it with the Central Bank, the others range with the pivots
62 00:13:13,169 --> 00:13:25,109 with the Asian range projections and standard deviations. By having all these things overlapping. And using the average daily range highs and lows. It will
63 00:13:25,109 --> 00:13:36,869 help formulate a probable objective for the day. And until that objective is met with the overlap or confluence of all the filling out the numbers levels that we
64 00:13:36,869 --> 00:13:47,579 look for. In between those ranges. We can see scalps form, ideally, you're gonna get one in London, you're gonna get one in New York, and you're gonna get one in
65 00:13:47,609 --> 00:13:57,749 London close. Maybe not always, but maybe you'll get one in Asia, not one every single pair most likely going to see something form like I said on a daily basis
66 00:13:57,749 --> 00:14:08,609 in one of the majors if you follow them all. Now average daily range or ADR can be expected to act as one half of the actual average daily range in some
67 00:14:08,609 --> 00:14:20,579 conditions. What am I what do I mean by that? Well, if we have an average daily range of say 50 and the ADR is calling for 50 pips for the day, if we are in a
68 00:14:20,579 --> 00:14:30,419 condition, when long term trends are underway and an intermediate term swing has begun. A large impulse swing concerns the daily range twice the average daily
69 00:14:30,419 --> 00:14:42,539 range, especially when ADR is under 60 pips 60 pips is like a number I like. And it's just over the years I've seen that as a filter, or a buffer, if you will,
70 00:14:42,539 --> 00:14:52,709 if we see 60 pips or less, and the conditions are likely that we'll see a strong directional move higher or lower doesn't make a difference. We're obviously
71 00:14:52,709 --> 00:15:03,539 going to be looking to trade in the direction and the most likely institutional order flow. It's bullish or bearish. But if we are expecting large ranges, and
72 00:15:03,539 --> 00:15:14,459 the average daily range is calling for 50, chances are we could probably see the ADR double. And when an intermediate term price swing is completing at a higher
73 00:15:14,459 --> 00:15:23,639 time, or higher Time Frame array. And on the strength of high impact news, this is usually capitulation. That means, the move has been going on for a while it's
74 00:15:23,639 --> 00:15:32,339 finally reaching an objective on a daily or weekly levels. And once it hits that it's going to reach for it to get to it in one day. And many times you'll see it
75 00:15:32,339 --> 00:15:34,439 go well beyond what your average daily range is.
76 00:15:36,899 --> 00:15:49,529 ADR now not filled at New York open, but during London clothes are ideal. The reason why I state this is because it gives us potential range expansion that
77 00:15:49,529 --> 00:16:01,289 has yet to come to fruition on the day. Again, as I preface it by saying that you can't expect ATR to always fail just because we see it's looking for
78 00:16:01,289 --> 00:16:14,399 potential at PIP or 100 pip range for the day doesn't mean it's going to make that number of pips. So in my opinion, if we look for our indicators to tell us
79 00:16:14,669 --> 00:16:25,619 ADRs say for instance, it's 75. For the five day average daily range of ATR, what I like to do is back off that bout 15 pips, because even if I'm exiting
80 00:16:25,649 --> 00:16:38,069 early, I may see the average daily range fulfill, but then sometimes it'll not get to it. But if I get out 15 pips before the average daily range higher low, I
81 00:16:38,069 --> 00:16:48,779 have a great deal of probability to be profitable, and not have to demand myself to be right. It's not about being right, it's about being profitable. So there's
82 00:16:48,809 --> 00:16:55,589 a couple ways you can handle that you can take your full position off 15 pips before the average daily range high or low respective to the daily range,
83 00:16:55,859 --> 00:17:05,129 direction, obviously, you're going to be looking at take profits average daily range high during bullish days, and average daily range low in bearish days. But
84 00:17:05,399 --> 00:17:15,299 whatever the average daily range is, I want to be taking the bulk of my position off, we're scaling the bulk of it off about 15 pips before that number, because
85 00:17:15,329 --> 00:17:23,519 everyone's data is gonna be slightly skewed. No one has the right number of no one has the absolute Okay, so there's going to be some variance amongst all data
86 00:17:23,519 --> 00:17:34,529 providers and brokers. So there's that variety of mongst, what daily highs and lows are going to be intraday. And on the daily ranges. The understanding is, is
87 00:17:34,529 --> 00:17:44,399 that, you know, we have to build in a model that helps facilitate efficient exits. And again, this is one of those things I've talked about. In the last
88 00:17:44,399 --> 00:17:55,679 session of this particular day of this recording. I was discussing how my efforts and my trading had been more aligned about getting out with more
89 00:17:55,679 --> 00:18:06,959 efficient and exits, not so much the entries, I don't mind the entries entries are okay. The problem I'm having as a old dinosaur trader is that I want my
90 00:18:06,959 --> 00:18:20,099 exits to be more efficient, and I want them to be more accurate. And I have built in the model of 15 pips before the ATR as my exit. So many times, if
91 00:18:20,099 --> 00:18:28,679 you've watched some of my trades, you'll see why now, with this explanation, why I'm always exiting just a little bit earlier, and it's always a uniform 15 pips
92 00:18:28,679 --> 00:18:41,639 before ADR. Now, if ADR fills at or before New York open, the average daily range will likely be exceeded, especially if high impact news is due out after
93 00:18:41,819 --> 00:18:55,889 equity open that means after stock market opens at 930. If ADR has been filled, right at the opening of New York, or during the London session, chances are if
94 00:18:55,889 --> 00:19:04,559 there's gonna be high impact news later on the afternoon, or at 10 o'clock or 11 o'clock, chances are we're probably going to see average daily range be
95 00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:18,779 exceeded, it doesn't mean double it just means exceeded. So when we look at these tools, again, they're just that a tool. They're not a secret weapon,
96 00:19:18,959 --> 00:19:29,639 they're not a silver bullet, you're not going to be perfect trader, you know, Trader X, you Mister, I'm going to be able to accomplish everything now because
97 00:19:29,639 --> 00:19:40,259 I have this indicator, my chart, you'll see that it again just complements everything else in our toolbox. Is it essential that we see average daily range
98 00:19:40,259 --> 00:19:48,479 on our chart? No. And that's why I spent a lot of time on his mentorship. Not even including it, but because we have a lot more tools and a lot more
99 00:19:48,479 --> 00:20:00,299 perspective. Now. We went from higher timeframe, all the way down to the smaller micro moves inside the the daily range. We can now start fleshing out ideas How
100 00:20:00,299 --> 00:20:12,509 these little movements intraday line up with the larger moves. And by using tools to help us determine the probable expansion for the magnitude of how big
101 00:20:12,509 --> 00:20:22,799 that daily range is going to be. It helps us frame ideas on where the market may go for objectives. So we're gonna be blending time and price.
102 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:34,590 Alright, so in a nutshell, the scalping model that I use, essentially, the setups or micro setups on the five minute charts that we outline on higher
103 00:20:34,590 --> 00:20:44,400 timeframe charts. So everything we've seen happen in explanation across the board on all the setups in the previous months of this mentorship, they're all
104 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:54,300 They're all applicable to the lower timeframe. But the elements of time of day are essential to framing the entire day's price swings on every daily range. Now
105 00:20:54,300 --> 00:21:03,900 the higher timeframe, PD arrays will draw price, they're the catalyst that makes price move, so you have to understand where they are relative to our timeframe.
106 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:15,660 And the intraday, lower timeframe. PD arrays will provide the timing and or price levels to enter on. Ideally, we'll use scalps to fill in slow periods, or
107 00:21:15,660 --> 00:21:25,170 enter trades that may have already started. And the lowest risk entry has long past. If you spend your time studying whether the higher timeframe is moving
108 00:21:25,170 --> 00:21:33,360 higher or lower, and wait for small Range Days to form. The market will reward your patients and supply you with daily ranges that expand and form clear
109 00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:48,000 intraday swings, perfect for scalping. Not all of us are going to lean towards scalping or intraday, scalping or new short term price movements in a daily
110 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:58,260 range, because the daily range is very limited. The range can be small. In recent months, we've seen daily ranges that are very minut in terms of how high
111 00:21:58,260 --> 00:22:06,300 the high is and how low the low is. Inside that range. There's even smaller tighter consolidations that we've had to contend with. So just because we're in
112 00:22:06,300 --> 00:22:17,700 smaller ranges, doesn't equate to Well, I'm just going to scalp the market, there has to be some measure of volatility. And what we'd like to see is, when
113 00:22:17,700 --> 00:22:26,520 the market starts to contract, we know there's going to be a large range day soon. And when we see there's, there's conditions embodied in price action,
114 00:22:28,140 --> 00:22:36,120 when we're expecting expansion when we're expecting that same time to market to be bullish, and we're expecting the market to react on specific news events
115 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:44,460 during the specific trading days that we're looking to trade Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday being highest probability. And the key select times of the day, the
116 00:22:44,460 --> 00:22:53,190 kill zones London Open in New York open, not so much them on the close and not so much the Asian session. If you want to be in here as a hardliner, you can
117 00:22:53,190 --> 00:23:04,590 trade in those, but you're not going to get a lot of volatility or bang for your buck. You can scalp very small short term positions in London, and in New York.
118 00:23:05,310 --> 00:23:16,290 Now I get questions a lot, how can you take a small account and trade it up and build it up. And my advice has always been if you can do it, if you can scalp
119 00:23:16,950 --> 00:23:24,630 that's one way to do it, because you'll be able to get velocity with your money. Now, it does not mean go on here and trade 7% of your account on these trades.
120 00:23:25,140 --> 00:23:36,120 It just means that if you put 1% up, you can get 1% made for that session. In London, if you are trading one pair, and you really dialed in, you get another
121 00:23:36,120 --> 00:23:48,630 trade one for one in New York, and it's 1% you make another percent so you can get 2% in that one day. So while it's not a terrible amount of money, okay, and
122 00:23:48,660 --> 00:24:00,270 you're not retiring on it, if you could bind that same element of trading with your one shot, one kill, and maybe short term trading one or two day day trades
123 00:24:00,300 --> 00:24:13,920 or swing trading or blend in make good trades as we'll teach in July. For long term position trades, those will help complement one another. And if you have
124 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:26,370 margin that's being used for one shot one kill, you may not have a whole lot free. So you can do intraday scalps risking one half percent or 1% and then you
125 00:24:26,370 --> 00:24:37,080 can do other things like hedging in other words if you have a long Euro dollar position one and you're expecting some measure of normal retracement, you can go
126 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:49,680 in and scalp okay not the Euro if you're in the States obviously because you can't do that. But you can scalp the opposite direction in for instance like the
127 00:24:49,680 --> 00:25:03,030 cable for you can trade the retracement lower in the euro dollar. You can look for trades like in the Euro Yen And that would see weakness. So you could Scout
128 00:25:03,030 --> 00:25:14,070 that Euro Yen pair and get a little bit of a percentage return as that larger position at once that one kill me experienced some normal drawdown but wouldn't
129 00:25:14,070 --> 00:25:22,500 shake you out otherwise. But you can capitalize on that retracement by trading another pair that is closely correlated to the Euro dollar in short it and
130 00:25:22,500 --> 00:25:33,960 scalping in London and New York. While it's applicable for that retracement to see unfold in the euro dollar. So you can use scalping as a tool for hedging,
131 00:25:33,990 --> 00:25:43,530 you can do it as a save all for if you miss the opportunity to be a seller at the high of the day, you can go into the five minute chart and look for a fair
132 00:25:43,530 --> 00:25:51,630 value gap and, or a retracement up into a bearish order block if you're bearish and sell short there and then ride the rest of the London session and maybe
133 00:25:51,630 --> 00:26:02,760 position yourself for the remainder of the day. It's only limited by your understanding and the conditions of the marketplace at the time. And over time,
134 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:14,010 you'll see examples of how we use it, where it's ethical. And in your own trading, you're also learn where it's most apt to be the best way of trading,
135 00:26:14,490 --> 00:26:23,100 especially when we get into August. And when we go over how to break the market down completely in into the four divisions of how the market is going into
136 00:26:23,100 --> 00:26:34,290 accumulation distribution models, these types of trades, you can build a very small account up, you can do it in short order. But it's not everyday trading.
137 00:26:34,620 --> 00:26:44,010 The problem is you're going to see how nimble you can become in these intraday charts. But it'll end up taking you away from the larger timeframes. If you
138 00:26:44,010 --> 00:26:51,990 allow in that's not what I've been doing here. I don't want to take your eyes off the higher timeframe. That's why we spent so much time working from a higher
139 00:26:51,990 --> 00:27:00,180 timeframe, all the way down to finally these little five minute charts. If it was that important, we would have started with the five minute chart. But if you
140 00:27:00,180 --> 00:27:09,600 don't have all the things we talked about since September, Scalping is going to be not the answer, but a problem for you. So with that, I wish you good luck,
141 00:27:09,660 --> 00:27:10,350 good trading.
142 00:27:10,650 --> 00:27:19,830 And our next lesson gives us the complete outline of what I do on a daily basis. From the time I wake up to get ready for the London everything. So I'm actually
143 00:27:19,830 --> 00:27:28,500 going to go through the whole process in a video where everything I do normally where I get the information from what I do with that information, when I'm
144 00:27:29,250 --> 00:27:40,530 weighing out all these types of things. That's my daily routine for scalping and intraday trading. And with that, we'll be closing this month's teachings and
145 00:27:40,530 --> 00:27:52,980 we're moving on into June we're we're jam packed with commodities stocks, index and bond trading. So until next lesson, wish you good luck and good trading.