78-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 8 - When To Avoid The London Session

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-10 09:32
1 00:00:12,599 --> 00:00:23,279 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back to Lesson Six of the April 2017, ICT mentorship. This month is ICT day trading model, this lesson is when to avoid the london
2 00:00:23,279 --> 00:00:23,729 session.
3 00:00:30,150 --> 00:00:41,490 Okay, this lesson is going to be completely void of any charts, any kind of examples, any kind of distractions, because I want you to think about the
4 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:51,210 characteristics that I'm outlining here. It's not a long lesson. But it's very, very important. I want to make it separate apart from everything else, because
5 00:00:51,630 --> 00:00:59,190 many of you look at the charts. And you try to question why I'm drawing a line here, or I'm highlighting this or why is this time filling me there? And why is
6 00:00:59,190 --> 00:01:09,990 it not this? I want you to think about the things I'm outlining in this lesson from a conceptual or characteristic viewpoint, because they're not ambiguous.
7 00:01:10,020 --> 00:01:16,620 They're very specific things I look for. And these are the types of things I want you to think about when you're going into trading the london session for
8 00:01:16,620 --> 00:01:28,890 day trades. So when is the one that session not ideal? Well, typically after a large range day, which is greater than two times the average five day range. In
9 00:01:28,890 --> 00:01:38,520 other words, if you look at the average daily range of a particular pair, if you ever have a day, prior to the day, you're wanting to day trade, or trade the
10 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:52,170 london session, if the previous day or previous trading day had a huge or large range day that went greater than two times its five day average daily range on
11 00:01:52,170 --> 00:02:02,370 the day that it had the large range day, okay, that is a day that you do not want to trade immediately the day after. Typically, there'll be a consolidation,
12 00:02:02,730 --> 00:02:17,700 or it could go choppy after a series of three consecutive up closes on a daily chart, you want to avoid trading longs, at least in Lavon in session because
13 00:02:17,790 --> 00:02:28,800 typically you can get a retracement that can be rather deep, creating a down closed day on a candle on a daily chart or a really long wick intraday and then
14 00:02:28,830 --> 00:02:37,470 maybe continuing in the direction of the three consecutive of closes. But generally after three up closes, you're gonna either get a pause, or retracement
15 00:02:37,470 --> 00:02:47,730 lower. After a series of three consecutive down closes on a daily chart, you want to be avoiding London shorts. And again, just that same thing we just
16 00:02:47,730 --> 00:02:57,420 mentioned with three consecutive closes as the daily chart would indicate. Many times when you see three consecutive down closes on a daily trading short in
17 00:02:57,420 --> 00:03:07,770 London the next day or the fourth trading day in a row. Many times you can get caught up in a deep retracement or can go sideways. And that makes it not ideal
18 00:03:07,770 --> 00:03:16,590 for London session. Now with both of these conditions outlined here for three consecutive up closes and three consecutive down closes. Again, that's relative
19 00:03:16,590 --> 00:03:27,690 to a daily timeframe. So if we see that criteria, what that will do is help filter out when we have that situation generally you won't see a big range day.
20 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:42,030 Now it doesn't mean it can't happen, but it's highly unlikely to occur on the fourth trading day after an FOMC event that produces extreme whipsaw. Now, this
21 00:03:42,030 --> 00:03:51,120 could be linked to the very first one I said as well after a large range day greater than two times its average daily range on the five day basis. That can
22 00:03:51,120 --> 00:04:01,260 be the factor that puts you on the sidelines not trading London. Or if there's an FOMC event that produces extreme whipsaw, that means that if there's an
23 00:04:01,260 --> 00:04:08,070 interest rate announcement, it comes out if they don't change the straits, or if they do change interest rates or wasn't as what they as high as they thought it
24 00:04:08,070 --> 00:04:17,790 was going to go or lower that thought, whatever that release is, I don't care. I don't care so much about that I what I want to see is what was the action in the
25 00:04:17,790 --> 00:04:27,510 marketplace. So if the FOMC event creates and produces an extreme whipsaw up and down, generally FOMC comes out two o'clock in the afternoon New York time. So if
26 00:04:27,510 --> 00:04:34,830 we see that big whipsaw price action that's going to mess up London. Okay, it's gonna screw up the central bank dealers range and possibly roll right on into
27 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:49,500 the Asian session. So just avoid trading London Open after FOMC events that create whipsaw. Ahead of Non Farm Payroll numbers, typically the first Friday
28 00:04:49,500 --> 00:05:00,510 not always, but generally the first Friday of every trading month we expect to see Non Farm Payroll if we are looking for Non Farm Payroll to occur We are not
29 00:05:00,510 --> 00:05:14,580 trading in london session at all on that Friday. Now, same trading day, that's heading into a long weekend or a holiday. That day, we avoid trading London as
30 00:05:14,580 --> 00:05:22,440 well because it could be an early leave a lot of traders want to go on an early escape from the marketplace. A lot of money's gonna be sitting on the sidelines.
31 00:05:22,650 --> 00:05:29,880 Now this is going to be a hit and miss type thing and variable you're going to be able to go back and find instances where ICT look at this it went 300 pips,
32 00:05:29,969 --> 00:05:37,379 okay going into the holiday and it was a short day. Is it going to happen? Possibly, yes, sure. It was, I mean, anything can happen. But we're, we trade in
33 00:05:37,379 --> 00:05:48,449 a world of probabilities and statistical edge. So if we know that historically, the normal event is, if there's a day leading into a holiday, usually it's a
34 00:05:48,449 --> 00:05:56,249 Friday could be a Thursday. Generally, you want to avoid trading the london session, because it's going to probably a quiet session, it's not worth taking
35 00:05:56,249 --> 00:06:07,439 on the risk. Multiple, high to medium impact news drivers for that particular market. So if we look on the economic calendar, you can use for X Factor, you
36 00:06:07,439 --> 00:06:16,859 can use any other reputable economic calendar that tracks what news releases are market drivers that are going to be released through out the weekend, each
37 00:06:16,859 --> 00:06:29,129 particular trading session for every major pair. If we're looking at that, for the London session, and we see multiple, high impact, or medium impact events
38 00:06:29,309 --> 00:06:40,739 for a particular currency, that can spell a pretty tricky london session, not all the time. Again, there's always a caveat there where it can happen. But
39 00:06:40,739 --> 00:06:47,759 generally, if we see multiple drivers, like for instance, a, maybe there's a two o'clock event that's coming out. And then at three o'clock, there's another one,
40 00:06:47,789 --> 00:06:55,109 or maybe there's a three o'clock event coming in, and then there's a five o'clock and five o'clock in the morning event as well. One may be medium impact,
41 00:06:55,229 --> 00:07:06,269 or one may be high impact, where they both they both may be one or the other in terms of medium or high impact news. If we see multiple events due out on the
42 00:07:06,269 --> 00:07:14,519 economic calendar for that particular pair, it could be problematic for your london session trade. Okay, so what we ideally look for, like we learned in the
43 00:07:14,519 --> 00:07:22,919 first portion of this mentorship is we want to see generally one high impact or medium impact news event. And that way we know there's going to be probably one
44 00:07:22,919 --> 00:07:29,459 stage of manipulation for that particular day. And then the Prophet release portion of the day, or the expansion of the daily range will unfold going into
45 00:07:29,459 --> 00:07:40,169 New York. In absence of any news during London can be a wildcard day. That means it could go either way. It could be a real easy technical day where your
46 00:07:41,189 --> 00:07:52,799 profiles unfold exactly as you expect. Or as we just recently seen in the title of this mentorship. The UK Prime Minister came out with a snap election decision
47 00:07:53,099 --> 00:08:06,989 right on the heels of the holiday break. And it took the cable by storm. So we had a 400 Pip move in one trading day for the British pound USD. So and there
48 00:08:06,989 --> 00:08:19,919 was an absence completely of any money and time based news events. So it was sprung on the market last minute. And then that was the result. So there's
49 00:08:19,919 --> 00:08:28,769 always some kind of a black swan unexpected. didn't see it coming curveball. And that was one we just seen while we were doing the mentorship.
50 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:42,600 Now what characteristics do I look for, to look for an avoidance of london session. The first one is the central bank dealers range. If it's greater than
51 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:52,410 50 pips, I'm already knowing firsthand, I'm possibly going to pass on a London session, it doesn't mean it's a guaranteed set in stone. But if I have plans the
52 00:08:52,410 --> 00:09:03,990 next day, if I have no plans with my family, and I want to be rested, I'll just not pan out, just pass on the London session. And even if it moves well, I won't
53 00:09:03,990 --> 00:09:11,310 even get up at night to see how it sets up. I'll just avoid the london session altogether, get a good night's rest if I can, and be rested and spend my time
54 00:09:11,310 --> 00:09:21,270 with my family. If I don't have any plans, the next day going into New York hours, then I will still wake up around midnight time to see what the Asian
55 00:09:21,270 --> 00:09:32,580 range did. And that'll set up my decision factors with like we just learned in lesson five if the Asian range is greater than 40 pips going to consider the
56 00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:45,810 delayed protection profile. But it has to meet every one of those criteria for it to unfold. Otherwise, I'll move to the sidelines and avoid trading London. If
57 00:09:45,810 --> 00:09:56,130 the market starts to sustain rally or decline from a pm New York, that's usually a poor indication of a London session. That means that the real event is started
58 00:09:56,130 --> 00:10:03,900 at zero GMT, and they're probably gonna keep a sustained move going through and very little retracement, usually the retracement will occur if at all during the
59 00:10:03,900 --> 00:10:15,960 New York session. If central bank dealers range and or Asian range is not visually and it means obviously consolidating, I'm going to look to avoid the
60 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:26,520 london session. So that means there has to be a completely different market profile. From that what we saw of the intraday price action between the London
61 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:38,310 Open and London close of the previous day. So it after 2pm the previous day going to 8pm. If it isn't a quiet smaller consolidation range, that's not an
62 00:10:38,310 --> 00:10:48,900 ideal scenario, it means it's going to be a poor setup going into London. Same thing with Asian range. If the Asian range gets really wild or widens up, that
63 00:10:48,900 --> 00:11:01,710 again, lessens the statistical edge that iptable Give us by moving into a pro reactionary state right after midnight. So bottom line syndrome it was range and
64 00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:12,990 or Asian range must trade down into a small tight consolidation range. If we don't see that, if it's trending in both or either or it makes the london
65 00:11:12,990 --> 00:11:20,940 session highly suspect. And you'll know clearly by looking at the time window that creates a central ideal is range and the Asian range. If it's not in
66 00:11:20,940 --> 00:11:28,290 consolidation, or if it isn't consolidation. Very clear, obvious, you'll see what I mean by going through your charts and going back over a 15 minute
67 00:11:28,290 --> 00:11:38,100 timeframe. You'll see clearly when it creates a consolidation, it looks very, very distinct, small little narrow range, in contrast to all the previous day's
68 00:11:38,460 --> 00:11:48,510 intraday action. If it's wide, or erratic or trending in either one of those ranges, Central Bank, dealers range or Asian, it makes London highly suspect.
69 00:11:48,660 --> 00:11:59,070 And I don't want to trade in those conditions. Now we as traders, as a day trader, we're going to be aiming for days when the banks will hold the market to
70 00:11:59,070 --> 00:12:09,270 build open float. And again, that builds on the idea of the previous point. When we anticipate the banks holding the market in a small tight consolidation, what
71 00:12:09,270 --> 00:12:20,040 they're doing is they're allowing orders to build above and below the intraday high, it's being formed between the Asian range open, and the Asian range close
72 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:27,960 at midnight. So we're looking for that building up of orders. We don't need to know what the orders are or how much they are, because we're never going to know
73 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:36,810 what that is. But we can see it indicated in how they maintain a very narrow price range through Central Bank dealers range time window and the Asian range.
74 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:46,170 Again, if it's not clear, if it's not obvious in a small tight range, it's probably going to be an ugly london session and you're not going to see a clear
75 00:12:46,170 --> 00:12:59,340 manipulation cycle or projection every state. If the market is trending from 8pm, New York, generally this is going to create London sloppiness that means
76 00:12:59,340 --> 00:13:10,140 the move is most likely occurred at the beginning of zero GMT 8pm, New York time, and it's going to keep on rolling through until we see the New York
77 00:13:10,140 --> 00:13:17,460 session. So again, we don't want to see an Asian session trending environment for an ideal London entry.
78 00:13:20,610 --> 00:13:30,300 When the market is conditioned for London slop as we just described in the previous point, sleep in trade New York. That means if any of these things that
79 00:13:30,300 --> 00:13:38,430 we've mentioned so far, are there. That means that the london session is going to be sloppy. If it's going to be sloppy, does that mean it's a high probability
80 00:13:38,430 --> 00:13:51,150 condition? Absolutely not. We want it to be so slanted in our favor. That means not trading every day, every single trading day will not have the recipe for a
81 00:13:51,180 --> 00:14:01,980 clear profile, as we described in lots of Lesson five. But when we see these characteristics here, it lends very well for us to weigh whether or not we're
82 00:14:01,980 --> 00:14:09,870 going to be participating in London, or if we do participate in London, and we just second guess it and we have to see it for ourselves by experience, trade
83 00:14:09,870 --> 00:14:21,450 with very, very, very little risk, because you're probably going to regret knowing it. accumulation, manipulation and distribution is the business of
84 00:14:21,450 --> 00:14:35,730 intraday trading. That's all it is. intraday is the short term horizon where banks can manipulate and knock people out, push in orders facilitate false
85 00:14:35,730 --> 00:14:47,160 sentiment ideas. So what we're looking for is these orders to accumulate in the marketplace. We don't necessarily know how many orders are above and below these
86 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:55,740 consolidations that we look for in a central paint dealers range of Asian range, but we know based on our directional bias from the daily chart and for our with
87 00:14:55,770 --> 00:15:06,150 using the pdra matrix and if the data ranges where price will most likely drawl to on the higher timeframes. So if we know that, and we're bullish, we can
88 00:15:06,150 --> 00:15:17,100 anticipate the next stage, which is manipulation. Taking the price lower down into an area where traders will be induced to sell or get knocked out of
89 00:15:17,250 --> 00:15:26,670 premature entries that are already long, they're going to unseat those position, then they distribute those positions they have accumulated going long, near the
90 00:15:26,670 --> 00:15:35,250 low of the day, near the high of the day at London close or late New York. That's the model we're trading off of. That's what we're looking for. So if we
91 00:15:35,250 --> 00:15:46,470 don't have clues, or fingerprints, if you will, to lend to these ideas being in price, it's not ambiguous. It's not a guessing game. It's not? Well, I wonder if
92 00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:55,380 it's going to do this, or one who's gonna do that? No, we know exactly what we're looking for. There's Hallmark trademark characteristics that make these
93 00:15:55,440 --> 00:16:05,850 london session entries, perfect and ideal. And it's based on the criteria we've given you, from the central bank dealers range in the Asian range. There are
94 00:16:05,850 --> 00:16:16,680 specific things that you'd look for, if they're not present, you do not have high probability conditions to trading. If they are, as we were describing here,
95 00:16:17,250 --> 00:16:26,790 and you take the trade and you take a suppose that bullish order block or as opposed to turtle soup, or something, okay, and you lose money. Now, you know
96 00:16:26,790 --> 00:16:35,220 why? Because you don't have it in your favor, where they're clearly going to draw a price, one direction or the other based on the criteria we've given you
97 00:16:35,220 --> 00:16:47,190 in lesson five. If the conditions were selling you here in lesson six, or there, you have a great deal of odds in your favor of losing money. So pay attention to
98 00:16:47,190 --> 00:16:57,990 these points, because it will keep you at least in my opinion, it's kept me from doing a lot of trading where I was better off sitting on the sidelines than
99 00:16:57,990 --> 00:17:07,350 there have getting in their marketplace. If you look at some of the conditions that we've outlined over the course of this mentorship, some of the days are
100 00:17:07,350 --> 00:17:18,960 ideal for these events are here. Then other days, there are instances where they are not so prevalent. And the conditions were probably in our favor to trade.
101 00:17:19,410 --> 00:17:30,180 But you still can be wrong. So again, this helps you avoid the ugly periods. But you're still going to get these once in a while moves where it would have been
102 00:17:30,180 --> 00:17:40,860 better had you taken a trade. And all this is doing is help you know when the odds are less in your favor. And believe me if you avoid this lesson, if you
103 00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:49,080 discount it, if you think oh no, and they're going to look for the signals, you're going to look for the signals in this kind of mess. And you're not going
104 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:56,790 to see the results you're hoping for. And you're going to attribute it to to stuff doesn't work. ICT doesn't have an edge, there's no benefit to knowing
105 00:17:56,790 --> 00:18:04,830 these types of things. And it's all fluff wrong. You've seen enough instances where precision is there to precision won't come into the marketplace or be
106 00:18:04,830 --> 00:18:15,030 evident in price action when these elements are present. So I know what you're probably saying, what's going on in the marketplace, when these events are
107 00:18:15,030 --> 00:18:22,230 happening? What are the central banks doing? Ready for this? I don't know. I don't know.
108 00:18:23,100 --> 00:18:31,740 And if I don't know, or have a belief in what they're doing, then that's certainly not a time where I'm gonna put money at risk. And neither should it be
109 00:18:31,740 --> 00:18:41,430 for you. We know what they're doing, or most likely doing. When we have these narrow consolidation ranges between central bank dealers range and Asian range.
110 00:18:41,730 --> 00:18:49,020 When we have a daily bias, when we know where the draw is on the daily chart, where is the price going to be drawn to what is it going to be moving up to a
111 00:18:49,020 --> 00:19:00,390 premium, or it's going to be moving down to a discount. We knew that for our directional bias. Having that, applying it to our London session, if we can find
112 00:19:00,570 --> 00:19:15,180 the standard, normal protraction profile or the delayed profile in that direction of the day. We got it licked. But you still can have losses. If we see
113 00:19:15,180 --> 00:19:25,230 these conditions here, regardless of what we have as a daily bias, whatever we think it is doing. It doesn't matter. All those things fall second to this
114 00:19:25,230 --> 00:19:35,940 criteria here because we're specifically dealing with intraday action. We have to have rule based ideas, we have to have filters. These are our filters. You do
115 00:19:35,940 --> 00:19:48,180 not trade every single trading day. These conditions will prevent you from taking positions in money. And you have to accept it. You got to submit to it.
116 00:19:48,360 --> 00:19:55,320 You have to be subordinate to some level roles. If you don't have them, you're going to overtrain you're going to trade every single day and yes, you might get
117 00:19:55,320 --> 00:20:03,780 some amazing moves that may appear when these conditions are there and you'll be able to show Omean email, I didn't do that, and I still I made 120 pips here,
118 00:20:03,780 --> 00:20:11,430 Michael, look at this. And I'm gonna say you didn't follow the rules, you're gonna get mad, you're gonna be offended. But I'm telling you upfront, if it
119 00:20:11,430 --> 00:20:18,720 looks like this, and you trade it in London and you make money, I don't want to know about it, because all you're doing is saying you did not follow the rules.
120 00:20:25,500 --> 00:20:37,200 Okay, when is London Open kill zone ideal? And we obviously we talked about what makes the avoidance of planning session, most apt to be the best choice. But
121 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:46,800 what do we do to help formulate an ideal scenario going into London? Well, the daily chart is going to be clearly respecting PD arrays. So are we in an
122 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:58,800 environment where the markets clearly respecting, obvious clear, non ambiguous PD arrays where the market is clearly is going to an order block or it's closing
123 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:08,580 in a gap. And it's responding as you would realistically expect it to, when we have those inherent find a high odds, probability trade in my favor as a day
124 00:21:08,580 --> 00:21:17,400 trade. I'm gonna get in here and get lucky in London, that's gambling, we don't do that. So we have to have a discernible direction in the marketplace on the
125 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:24,750 daily chart. And it has to be respecting a PD right matrix. And that way we know what our daily bias is, is it going to be reaching higher, it's gonna be
126 00:21:24,750 --> 00:21:34,410 reaching lower, it's just that simple. Now, when the market is poised to trade higher on a daily to a premium array, we're going to be looking for London
127 00:21:34,410 --> 00:21:43,350 Long's because they're gonna be ideal entry points, because we know that on the higher timeframe daily, it's respecting the TD array matrix. And the most likely
128 00:21:43,350 --> 00:21:53,580 outcome is it's gonna be reaching for a premium pdra. The range at which it is trading at right now at market price to the next premium pdra. That is going to
129 00:21:53,580 --> 00:22:01,920 be indicative how much we can anticipate for the next price move higher, it may not fulfill that entirely. And then the day trade the day that you're trading,
130 00:22:02,310 --> 00:22:12,900 that numbers, it won't fulfill that entire range and one day, it can take several days. And that's going to also facilitate the continuation of the next
131 00:22:12,900 --> 00:22:19,860 trading day, are you going to be trading in London as well, because he may have that range still to fulfill. And if it's still there, on a daily chart to reach
132 00:22:19,860 --> 00:22:29,400 up into that premium you have still reigns to work with. And you may end up getting another setup in the following consecutive trading day in London, and do
133 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:41,670 the very same thing you did in the day before buying. When the market is poised to trade lower on a daily to a discount array. London shorts are ideal. Same
134 00:22:41,670 --> 00:22:51,420 scenario just reversed in the previous point. If we have just recently traded off of a premium array, and we're going to be reaching down into a discount
135 00:22:51,420 --> 00:22:59,190 array, I mean, the bullish order block closing a fair value get that below market price close into liquidity void below market price trade down below and
136 00:22:59,190 --> 00:23:10,470 old low markets poised to make a low resistance liquidity run to a discount. If we see that scenario on a daily, London, shorts are ideal. It doesn't mean
137 00:23:10,620 --> 00:23:18,810 circumvent all of the previous slides that I just mentioned, those conditions have to be eliminated in the morning, they can't be present, even in this
138 00:23:18,810 --> 00:23:28,920 condition here and the previous point as well. As it relates to premium arrays. Either one of these conditions can be cancelled out if we seen the conditions
139 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:41,460 that we just shown in the previous two slides. When the daily range has not recently exceeded its five day average daily range. And expansion day is due to
140 00:23:41,460 --> 00:23:51,930 form. So in other words, if you study average daily range, you can do several studies like this. You can look at every single day, what's the expected average
141 00:23:51,930 --> 00:24:02,160 daily range from a five day basis? And what is the actual five day average daily range at the close of the day. And keep a running log of that of the pairs that
142 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:11,430 you trade. This is reason why you don't want to trade in 20 pairs because you can get really tuned in to your pair or pairs if it's just to by doing these
143 00:24:11,430 --> 00:24:20,010 types of things. Because when the average daily range of the last five days is factored, not every single day, will the average daily range be met. Many times
144 00:24:20,010 --> 00:24:30,240 it'll be just below it or not even much more than half the average daily range if we're in a quiet period. But if we have traded several days, and the previous
145 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:38,190 day has not seen or exceeded, that doesn't mean it has to go two times the average daily range of a five day basis. But it has yet to trade above the
146 00:24:38,190 --> 00:24:45,960 average daily range on a five day basis, the previous day and you're bullish, you have a really good chance of having a large range day, the day of your
147 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:54,720 trade. And we don't have the conditions in the previous two slides that will cancel out one. If we have all those things present and we can see the profile
148 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,670 unfolding that we learned in lesson five
149 00:24:58,140 --> 00:25:08,340 you have the highest probability We have a big expansion day, because the five day average daily range has not been traded to or exceeded in the previous day.
150 00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:20,070 So we have a condition of volatility, it's low. And the average daily range many times will be either one and a half, or maybe even two times to find the average
151 00:25:20,070 --> 00:25:27,570 daily range. In instances where we can get a big range day, you don't need very many of those over the course of a month to erase a lot of the screw ups that
152 00:25:27,570 --> 00:25:37,080 you'll make, if you try to trade every single day. You don't want to take your big winning day, and use that to remove all of the stupid trading days. In other
153 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:45,180 words, avoiding the previous two slides conditions, and still trying to force a trade and trying to show you know the community in the mentorship or show the
154 00:25:45,180 --> 00:25:55,110 internet that you're you're smart, or you got done, what was necessarily the ICT roles, you're able to find a setup. Don't do that, okay, you're you're not going
155 00:25:55,110 --> 00:26:01,800 to impress anyone, you don't want to impress me, and it may not be important to you. But I can tell you, if you stick with these rules, you're going to do
156 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,060 better than if you don't.
157 00:26:04,620 --> 00:26:16,650 But know that when we have these big Range Days, we that's that's the cream. That's the that's the bonus for the month. Okay, when we catch these big rains
158 00:26:16,650 --> 00:26:26,850 days, you don't want to be trading every single day, because you're gonna get small little singles, draw down days, draw down days, draw down days, and then
159 00:26:26,850 --> 00:26:36,180 when you get a good win, it doesn't really show as a win, because you have all these small little singles, small little singles that erased by a loss, a loss a
160 00:26:36,180 --> 00:26:45,690 loss. So you're treading water. And now all of a sudden, you have a normal trading when it won't register that much in terms of your equity growth. It will
161 00:26:45,690 --> 00:26:54,480 require you to use the big rain states to show all your profit. And if you look at a 20 day study of every trade every trading month, if you trade it every
162 00:26:54,480 --> 00:27:03,900 single day, you're gonna see that your results are skewed in such a way that if you're profitable, if you take out your largest profitable day, you probably
163 00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:15,540 aren't making money. You don't want conditions like that in your equity growth. Okay, you want to show a smooth equity growth line by ferreting out the times
164 00:27:15,540 --> 00:27:23,190 when you don't want to be trading. Because if you can take the periods of drawdown probability out of the equation, or at least do your best to remove it,
165 00:27:23,850 --> 00:27:32,850 then you stand a better chance of trading limits and ideal scenarios. So you really slant yourself to high probability conditions. So while you still may
166 00:27:32,850 --> 00:27:42,720 suffer losses, and you still absolutely will, the larger losses will hopefully be avoided. Because you're forcing yourself in a role based idea. That way,
167 00:27:42,810 --> 00:27:52,050 you'll have singles, singles, doubles, three, one wins. And then when you get these really big, huge runners, and you're able to position yourself in London
168 00:27:52,050 --> 00:28:02,430 and you let them go, that will push your equity return for the month way over your average, you know, with your average is like eight to 10% for the month,
169 00:28:02,850 --> 00:28:12,120 you get a big average daily range, big move, and you hold on to it for the whole day. Many times that'll push you 10 15% More for the month than your normal
170 00:28:12,180 --> 00:28:24,420 return. And there's a way of standardizing your monthly return. But you have to start with these rule based ideas. So as we learn more things, we we start
171 00:28:24,420 --> 00:28:34,830 applying them to our live sessions, we start applying them to our exercises and drills. And when we practice, so when we have these things, we go through a
172 00:28:34,830 --> 00:28:44,250 specific criteria, a list of rules and eliminate certain trading days. And you'll know why we're not trading those days. Versus if I say, I'm not trading
173 00:28:44,250 --> 00:28:50,520 today. And you're you're left scratching your head saying well, why is he not trading today? What makes this day any different than the other? Now you're
174 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:56,850 going to know. So if I say I'm not trading today, you'll know why I'm not trading it and you won't get upset, you won't be offended. You won't think I'm
175 00:28:56,850 --> 00:29:05,340 trying to go to the beach the next morning, and you're just trying to get some sleep. You don't know why there's a real reason why. And it's consistent. It's
176 00:29:05,340 --> 00:29:12,600 not something that takes a great deal of, you know, mental acrobatics to understand. These are very simple things to understand when you look at the
177 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:22,860 price, study it go back and look at several months of data. I don't care what pair you look at. If you see these things in the marketplace, it's highly
178 00:29:22,860 --> 00:29:32,160 unlikely they're going to get a clean london session. And that's what we want. We want to trade when the market has a clear squeeze on volatility. They're
179 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:38,940 holding the consolidation and they're letting the order stack up. We know where the markets going to want to go on a daily chart. How many times have you seen
180 00:29:39,090 --> 00:29:48,240 over the course of the last six, seven months? Where I'm calling the market on the daily chart? It's almost 98% accurate? It's ridiculous. Okay. So when we
181 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:57,390 apply these ideas, and we fare it out, all the times when the conditions we showed in two previous slides are there. We're going to miss some moves, and
182 00:29:57,390 --> 00:30:09,510 that's fine. We don't care about that. But We're leaning ourselves heavily in the, basically the salad days, the easy trading days, okay. And we're moving now
183 00:30:09,540 --> 00:30:16,680 into a framework where I actually trade with these types of things. So I don't trade every single day. And there's gonna be times now going forward and our
184 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:25,140 mentorship. When we have these conditions there, I'll let you know in the forum. This is not a high probability day, we will be sitting on the sidelines and
185 00:30:25,140 --> 00:30:36,210 waiting for new events or waiting for New York session. So now you have a clear reason why I won't be taking certain participation in in in trading days. And
186 00:30:36,210 --> 00:30:45,540 you know, what you're going to be learning from not doing it. And we'll see many instances where it will help protect us from taking what will otherwise be a
187 00:30:45,540 --> 00:30:54,300 losing trade in London. So hopefully, you found this lesson insightful. I know it's not exciting, it's not sexy, it doesn't have all kinds of charts. But it's
188 00:30:54,300 --> 00:30:59,160 one of those ones that require you to think it's one of those where
189 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:10,500 it's one of those lessons that helps you build a winner's mindset, you have to have rules you have to. And the best rules are the ones that help you stay out
190 00:31:10,500 --> 00:31:18,570 of the marketplace. Because everybody can get in the marketplace. There's no There's no shortage on reasons to get into a trade. Because everybody can come
191 00:31:18,570 --> 00:31:25,110 up with one there's they make books about it all day long. Every bookshelf in the bookstores have some reason why you need to be a buyer or seller based on
192 00:31:25,110 --> 00:31:36,060 something but very little is written about, how do you know when to stay out of the marketplace. That's what this lesson has given you. So here's one of the
193 00:31:36,060 --> 00:31:47,940 beautiful elements to it. I don't care if you're a position trader at heart, a swing trader at heart, I don't care if you're a one shot one kill trader, I
194 00:31:47,940 --> 00:31:55,560 don't care if you're just going to be a day trader. Or if you're going to be a scalper like we're going to learn in next month. The criteria I just gave you
195 00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:05,550 here will save your backside, regardless of what trading discipline you have. Because if you're going to be executing in China trade with the London session,
196 00:32:06,270 --> 00:32:17,190 as your means of entry, if it looks like these two previous slides, you want to wait, just wait until a better technical picture. And when you get it, you'll
197 00:32:17,190 --> 00:32:28,530 have no problem taking your entry. And you'll be much more fortified in knowing that you have the all the odds that you could possibly have reasonably, you
198 00:32:28,530 --> 00:32:36,690 know, in your favor. And that's what you want to live as a trader, you want to be in the market when it's highly favored. On your side of the marketplace. You
199 00:32:36,690 --> 00:32:46,230 want to be on side, not offside. And the way I've learned over a long period, and these are lessons that I had to learn painfully, very painfully, because I'm
200 00:32:46,230 --> 00:32:54,300 stubborn, I want to do things the way I want to do things. And if someone tells me I shouldn't do this, I'm going in doing that very thing. You know, it's like,
201 00:32:54,900 --> 00:33:01,410 the sign says on the lawn, don't step on the grass. I'm doing the jig on it. I'm dancing all over it moonwalking on it, not because I'm ignorant, I'm trying to
202 00:33:01,410 --> 00:33:09,510 be rude. It's just, that's my nature, it's human nature to do the very things you know, you're not supposed to do. So you have to have these rule based ideas.
203 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:19,860 So that's why there's no charts in this. There's no, let me show you examples of this. Okay, it's rules. It's 100% rules. And I'm going to leave it up to you to
204 00:33:19,860 --> 00:33:28,290 have this created as a checklist. I'm not going to give you a checklist that has this stuff, because I want you to write it in your own handwriting. Once you
205 00:33:28,290 --> 00:33:35,400 write it out, subconsciously, you're going to retain it. And in every day, you're going to refer to it when you look at the marketplace. And in the
206 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:43,590 previous two slides. If those conditions are there, you already know probability has fallen off the table. And it's not likely to be an easy trading session for
207 00:33:43,590 --> 00:33:55,860 London. Now think about that. That's very, very empowering. It also gives you context. Yet you might still be bullish on that pair. You might be bearish on
208 00:33:55,860 --> 00:34:07,320 that pair. But when you don't have the conditions in favor for technical symmetry, where you can expect and clearly anticipate the manipulation on
209 00:34:07,350 --> 00:34:15,630 Monday, central banks, when a reprice higher and go on their projection and state. We're entering in that if we don't have the framework to clearly see when
210 00:34:15,630 --> 00:34:26,520 they're going to do that. What are we doing in the marketplace then? That's what everybody else does. Gamble and gamble sometimes make money. But gamblers rarely
211 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:31,050 make a living. With that wish good luck and good trading.