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73-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 8 - Essentials To ICT Daytrading

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-03 13:05
1 00:00:11,550 --> 00:00:20,850 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is April 2017, this content for the ICT mentorship. This month we're gonna be teaching my day trading model. This is
2 00:00:20,850 --> 00:00:34,800 lesson one. And we're gonna be covering essentials to ICT day trading. Alright folks, I see the day trading model and the essentials to the ICT day trading.
3 00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:47,400 Okay for the opportunities inside the daily range. Now the aim is to capitalize on the movement existing in a single day. Now, this makes this type of trading
4 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:59,700 the hardest, and it's why most Analysts and Technical gurus if you will, that like to talk on CNBC or in the higher timeframe, world, they'll they'll scoff at
5 00:00:59,700 --> 00:01:07,560 day trading, they'll say that it's not likely that anyone can be profitable trading this timeframe. But as you'll learn in this month, it's very, very
6 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:18,690 precise. And our aim is to capitalize on the movement that exists in a 24 hour trading period. It's important just because the name again, I've said this many
7 00:01:18,690 --> 00:01:31,950 times is day trading, it does not mean or equate to everyday trading. So not all days are going to be ideal for day trading. Generally, there are two setups per
8 00:01:31,950 --> 00:01:40,260 trading day on average. And we're going to go over both of those setups. But we're gonna be talking about other scenarios that can take place in a 24 hour
9 00:01:40,260 --> 00:01:51,690 trading period for this month. That will also help you when we get into scalping in the main content. The daily range is the goal for us as the day trader. In
10 00:01:51,690 --> 00:02:04,440 other words, our expectation is to capitalize on it least 65 to 70% of the daily range, that means we're going to leave a little bit on the table, possibly near
11 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:14,220 the high or the low of the day. But we're trying to get the lion's portion of the move that comprises the daily range or daily candle. Now typically, the
12 00:02:14,220 --> 00:02:22,410 daily range will be close to the last five days average daily range. And I'll go into detail about that, and how we can arrive at that figure. But generally,
13 00:02:22,590 --> 00:02:29,760 what we're looking for is a range that is equivalent to the last five days averaged across. In other words, what's the most pips it's moved in the last
14 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:37,500 five days average. And then that's going to be our expected daily range. Now there's going to be times where I'm going to teach you, where average daily
15 00:02:37,500 --> 00:02:49,260 range can be actually doubled, or even expected to be more than doubled in a single day. directional bias frames a large portion of all day trade setups.
16 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:58,350 That means we're gonna be looking for directional plays primarily. So we're going to have a preconceived idea, going into the week looking for specific
17 00:02:58,380 --> 00:03:08,970 criterias to link ourselves with institutional workflow. Now the ideal scenario is to day trade in the direction of the weekly timeframe, I'm going to give the
18 00:03:08,970 --> 00:03:19,950 insights in this specific teaching here, how we can do that. Now the more higher timeframe ideas that you can find to support the day trade, this is going to
19 00:03:19,950 --> 00:03:31,290 increase the odds and therefore make it better for you. day trades permit the trader to limit the stop loss on all trades. Now while we're dealing
20 00:03:31,290 --> 00:03:40,860 specifically with day trading in this entire month content, the advantages even if you do not want to be a day trader, or you don't have the ability to sit in
21 00:03:40,860 --> 00:03:47,280 front of the charts all day long and babysit, there's going to be a way of doing this type of trading without sitting in front of the charts all day. I'll give
22 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:57,030 you that. But also, I want you to think about how using day trade entries. And using the very small stop losses that this timeframe permits in this discipline
23 00:03:57,030 --> 00:04:08,670 of trading, you can lower your initial risk when we were trading these long term position trades, or swing trades and or your one shot one kill. So the setups
24 00:04:08,970 --> 00:04:20,910 while they are really limited to new by your own imagination. You can't just look at this as a wall to day trading model or discipline. So therefore, it
25 00:04:20,910 --> 00:04:29,700 doesn't fit me it doesn't fit my criteria or my personal makeup as a trader. It doesn't jive with my psyche as an individual. So therefore, I mean, just just
26 00:04:29,730 --> 00:04:35,160 discount this and maybe you're looking for something that's gonna be taught later in the mentorship, you're not really gonna pay too much attention to this
27 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:46,050 one. You'd be really doing yourself at the same service because it helps you reduce the amount of risk, lower the amount of pips and it's also going to have
28 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:53,370 a framework where you can incorporate with the last lesson in number 82 This month, we can incorporate the entry techniques that we're using for day trading
29 00:04:53,700 --> 00:05:03,180 and an overlap that with higher timeframe setups which can give you many, many times over the standard Three to five to one setups. In other words, we're
30 00:05:03,180 --> 00:05:07,500 looking for setups to pay off either one or three to one, ideally. But
31 00:05:08,790 --> 00:05:16,920 when you're using day trade entries, and you're high trading off a higher timeframe setup, wow, the multiples can be ridiculous, it can be in the double
32 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:28,380 digits very easily. It's important not to take many day trades in a single 24 hour day. And as I mentioned earlier, there's two primary setups in a day. And
33 00:05:28,380 --> 00:05:37,230 we're gonna go over that in the next teaching. But for now, just understand that just because you're day trading, and we're not talking about scalping here, but
34 00:05:37,230 --> 00:05:45,870 we're looking for specific setups that allow us to try to capitalize on the majority of the daily range. Now, it's not important that we get all the daily
35 00:05:45,870 --> 00:05:54,450 range, believe me, if you get a portion of the daily range, and you go into profit, that's way better than 99% of all other traders out there. Because most
36 00:05:54,450 --> 00:06:02,040 people are losing money. So if you're capitalizing on a daily range, you're getting some portion of every single day that may equate to maybe 30 pips and
37 00:06:02,070 --> 00:06:11,880 maybe the average daily range is 120 pips, and the daily range for that particular day you traded was 100 pips, but you only got 30 Or maybe 40. That's
38 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:21,180 not a loss, that's not a missed opportunity that's actually very successful. So you're doing well. And if you can continuously do that, you'll grow your
39 00:06:21,180 --> 00:06:29,430 understanding, and bring yourself to holding for larger portions of the move and getting in better entries. And you'll get larger portions of that daily range.
40 00:06:29,790 --> 00:06:38,760 But don't think that you can day trade a lot and therefore get a lot of trades. Okay, that's not the answer to what you're looking for in terms of profitability
41 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:53,310 or pips. Now, the up to date arranges combined with PDA arrays are the foundation to all of my day trades. FOMC days and Non Farm Payroll days, keep us
42 00:06:53,310 --> 00:07:02,790 on the sidelines. And they are basically a no setup day. So while we can play in the sand and use our demo accounts to keep close to price and stay down in terms
43 00:07:02,790 --> 00:07:14,910 of what they may be reaching for, as we just did just this past Friday, we could this recording, just because we may be able to forecast or see analytically,
44 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:24,900 where crypto may take price. It's many times better just to sit on the sidelines and just let that one day go by without you. Participation in those types of
45 00:07:24,900 --> 00:07:29,280 days really does not increase your odds, even in day trading.
46 00:07:34,110 --> 00:07:42,450 Alright, so what frames the daily setups. Obviously, we have to concern ourselves with higher timeframe institutional order flow. And that's going to be
47 00:07:42,450 --> 00:07:57,120 a ride that looking at monthly, weekly and daily PD arrays in the last 2040 and 60 trading days. I'm going to assume that you have a firm understanding about
48 00:07:57,180 --> 00:08:06,540 what a PD array is. And looking back the last 2040 and 60 trading days, you have to look for those higher timeframe and we're going to focus primarily on the
49 00:08:06,540 --> 00:08:16,110 daily for day trades. You don't need to see anything in terms of a weekly or a monthly primarily, because you'll generally see something on a daily that'll
50 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:29,130 line up for a discount or premium pdra. Now, it will be seeking new levels in price for liquidity. That's the role of the interbank price delivery algorithm.
51 00:08:29,370 --> 00:08:41,730 It seeks to move price to an area of New liquidity. The weekly chart or current candles direction is what we're primarily working within. So what we're doing is
52 00:08:41,730 --> 00:08:51,600 we're blending our expectation of what it may be seeking in terms of new liquidity above or below us in terms of market price. And we're forecasting the
53 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:59,550 weekly candle direction that we're presently trading. And so in other words, if we're going to go into a new week, we're going to be forecasting, what if there
54 00:08:59,550 --> 00:09:08,670 will be reaching for higher or lower prices in relative terms to the PDA arrays and in the data ranges and knows how far back are we looking for the most
55 00:09:09,330 --> 00:09:20,190 obvious logical premium or discount array? And what's the direction that's most likely favoring higher or lower prices. And then we incorporate that idea in
56 00:09:20,190 --> 00:09:31,230 forecasting the present or next weekly candle. And we look for that expansion higher or lower in relative terms to what we expect in terms of the data range
57 00:09:31,230 --> 00:09:41,790 in institutional order flow. The day of the week is paramount in understanding about day trading, because there's certain days that have high probability. And
58 00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:49,170 there's other days that can be a little bit of a hattrick. In other words, you may expect something to happen this particular day, but it may do something
59 00:09:49,170 --> 00:09:59,970 entirely different. And then there's other days that are predisposed to really just be a quiet day. We'll talk about that. And the most important is time with
60 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:08,280 Day, time of day for day trading is absolutely paramount. Just because we are day trading doesn't mean that you can just sit down any old time and say, Okay,
61 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:16,740 I'm gonna buy the Euro here and therefore I'm gonna be profitable or I'm gonna sell short the Euro Yen because you know, I got off work and I can sit in front
62 00:10:16,740 --> 00:10:24,870 of charts now does not equate to that they are specific times of the day, the MTA will move price and gyrate price around and then the market makers who will
63 00:10:24,870 --> 00:10:34,920 facilitate trade at those particular times, and there are no set, brokerage, operating hours, but there are time windows that we have to work within. So
64 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:45,960 while I don't trade in zones in price, I do trade in zones and time. So you have to be flexible with time and demand specifics in price. That means we're
65 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:56,640 demanding specific things that occur in a window of time. So the flexibility resides in time, not price price must hit our level must go to our level, and we
66 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:06,990 look for price to reach for that contrarian PD array for our profit. We do not wait for price to get exactly to that level, because we're always going to exit
67 00:11:06,990 --> 00:11:18,480 early. But we're always looking for these exits and entries to overlap with specific times of the day. And what we're primarily focusing on are volatility
68 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,540 expansions or large daily ranges.
69 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:33,450 Okay, time of day, what time of day are we referring to obviously, if you've gone through all my previous tutorials, these times of the day aren't going to
70 00:11:33,450 --> 00:11:43,890 be new to you. But for completeness sake, I do have to incorporate them. Primarily, we're gonna be looking for day trades at the London session open. And
71 00:11:43,890 --> 00:11:53,850 that is basically ICT kill zone for London. And we're going to be talking in terms of New York time. So when I refer to a time here, it's going to be
72 00:11:53,850 --> 00:12:04,170 relative to what time it is in New York. So typically, the London to hotspot for the higher loads of form for the day is usually between two o'clock in the
73 00:12:04,170 --> 00:12:12,000 morning and four o'clock in the morning New York time. Now it can deviate in transition a little bit earlier a little bit later, relative to the economic
74 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:23,070 calendar, and or daylight savings time, it has a little bit of overlap, where there may be some transition time before the market observes any movement from a
75 00:12:23,070 --> 00:12:33,720 daylight savings time or not. In daylight savings time, the way I overcome that is I look at my London Open kill zone, beginning at 1am, New York time and
76 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:44,760 ending at 5am New York time. So it gives me that window of four hours where it allows literally nothing to escape me, I'm looking already at that time window,
77 00:12:45,030 --> 00:12:52,890 and I'm looking at the economic calendar relative to the pair I'm trading. So there should be some kind of an manipulation just before or at the time of the
78 00:12:52,890 --> 00:13:03,630 news release. That either is medium impact or high impact. And then therefore, the trade setup is seen. The next time window we look at is the New York session
79 00:13:03,660 --> 00:13:11,760 open now this is primarily the easiest one to work with, you're gonna, you're gonna see that with the insights that you're gonna learn in this particular
80 00:13:12,030 --> 00:13:20,910 teaching, you'll know why that the New York session really, really is so much easier. And that's why I worked primarily the majority of our mentorship thus
81 00:13:20,910 --> 00:13:30,180 far in the New York session, because I want you to get really friendly with that timeframe. You know, London can be a little bit of a beast. So you have to know
82 00:13:30,510 --> 00:13:39,180 a little bit more understanding about how the daily ranges form within the weekly range and in the weekly range forms within a monthly range. So all of
83 00:13:39,180 --> 00:13:48,210 these fractal ideas, they have to be utilized in modular fashion. And over a period of time, you'll get a better understanding about how the sessions unfold.
84 00:13:48,540 --> 00:13:57,210 And when London is to be avoided, which we'll talk about this month. But New York primarily is really, really good. Now, the only time that you would avoid
85 00:13:57,210 --> 00:14:07,800 New York is if london session puts in 80% of the average daily range. And it's going to be very few times that it does that. But generally, unless the daily
86 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:19,230 range is almost entirely completed. Last five days average daily range was what I'm referring to that measurement if it's met or exceeded in London, that is
87 00:14:19,230 --> 00:14:27,000 when you want to move to the sidelines and don't even consider trading New York because it's probably either going to bounce around, go sideways, or it may
88 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:36,030 catch you in a reversal that you weren't expecting. And it's just better just sit on the sidelines. Don't worry about it. Wait for another trading day. London
89 00:14:36,030 --> 00:14:46,200 close now I've taught London close day trading strategy in the past. I used to do it I lost interest in it because it just doesn't give me enough of a payment,
90 00:14:46,530 --> 00:14:54,510 if you will. I'll touch briefly on it this month. But obviously I have my own teaching on it where you can watch that in my free tutorials. But nonetheless,
91 00:14:54,870 --> 00:15:05,610 let me close is the time of day where we look to really bank our positions and There are times when if the market is in a reversal, intraday, a billet goes
92 00:15:05,610 --> 00:15:17,550 down into a logical level of support or trades up into a logical level of resistance. That may be the very moment in time that a reversal occurs. London
93 00:15:17,550 --> 00:15:26,490 closes not always just simply close existing trades and move to the sidelines many times London closed can be incorporated as a entry point. For longer term
94 00:15:26,490 --> 00:15:38,730 one shot one kill or swing or position trades. Right The New York closes basically this day time window, what we're looking for is the two o'clock hour
95 00:15:38,730 --> 00:15:50,250 now, I'm not going to argue that everyone else around the world is going to say New York is new later in the day than that. I'll leave everyone else to believe
96 00:15:50,250 --> 00:15:58,230 whatever they want to believe. But what we're looking at is the two o'clock hour and specifically the three o'clock, which is the close of the bond market. That
97 00:15:58,230 --> 00:16:08,760 to me is the close of the New York session. So what we look for is in days to have FOMC interest rate stuff that comes out at two o'clock, our New York time,
98 00:16:09,420 --> 00:16:17,610 that usually will run till around three o'clock in the afternoon, New York time and then when the bomb Mark closes 3pm That's it whatever's happened by then
99 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,930 that's the daily range. And there's nothing else to expect. Very, very
100 00:16:21,930 --> 00:16:33,210 rarely are we even concerned about that. Because generally, by noon, when you're done, you're not really looking at anything past noon. Asian session open, this
101 00:16:33,210 --> 00:16:44,760 is primarily 8pm. My time in New York, we're looking for very small little setups that takes place in this time of day, but many times during the Ozzie
102 00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:57,060 overlap into Asia, you can actually get the daily lower high formed out in the Asian session open for like the yen pairs, Ozzie and kiwi, those types of pairs
103 00:16:57,270 --> 00:17:09,330 can generally surprise the trader by forming ace, special or important if you will, higher low at that time of day, when you will normally expected in the
104 00:17:09,330 --> 00:17:21,540 London session, those pairs generally can have a surprise and form their particular daily low and respective low at that session time. And London lunch
105 00:17:21,540 --> 00:17:33,750 This is generally between 5am to 7am. That time window is when the market goes pretty much quiet and prepares for the next leg either in the direction that
106 00:17:33,750 --> 00:17:44,250 London call creates or a reversal and on days that don't promote any more follow through. It can just be a continuation right from London and goes right on
107 00:17:44,250 --> 00:17:57,600 through the New York session and consolidation. So London after 5am New York time, you generally want to just anticipate a mode of transition retracement or
108 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:07,020 consolidation. So if we're for instance, if we're looking for lower prices, and we've gone short in London, it's pretty good idea to take something at or just
109 00:18:07,020 --> 00:18:17,430 before 5am Just in case we get a reversal, because there can be London lunch reversals. And because there's usually an economic report that comes out late
110 00:18:17,430 --> 00:18:26,520 like 430 in the morning, my time or could be a 5am release economically. But nonetheless, you want to take something during the London session in terms of
111 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:36,060 profit, because the London lunch hour can cause a reversal or a deeper retracement that may squeeze on your profits. And depending on how far that
112 00:18:36,060 --> 00:18:48,150 retracement goes, and some of them in London can be brutal. You don't want to get the opportunity pass you by where a good position exit would have been
113 00:18:48,210 --> 00:18:58,050 favorable for at least a portion of your trade. So be mindful that between 5am and 7am that is considered a lot of lunch. And we look for either a retracement
114 00:18:58,050 --> 00:19:12,210 or consolidation on that particular time of day. Okay, day of week, I'm gonna give you some characteristics specifics about each day. And Sunday. Generally we
115 00:19:12,210 --> 00:19:20,160 opt out because the daily ranges is simply too too small. It's only a couple of hours. But there are some things that we know about Sunday for those data
116 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:32,640 providers that use daily Sunday candles, some providers, some brokers don't use Sunday at all. But if it if your broker doesn't use Sunday, don't worry about
117 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:40,860 it. Just use everything that we teach in our refer to later on. And we get to that discussion about what we do with Sunday. You just incorporate that with
118 00:19:40,950 --> 00:19:53,310 Monday's data. It's not that big of a deal. Okay, Monday, generally this can create a small range typically, if it's a really large range, and it comes right
119 00:19:53,310 --> 00:20:04,320 out the gate direction wise and you understand where you're at in terms of the PD arrays if we're trading a been to a premium rate from jump a new week. And
120 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:13,530 Monday becomes a high range or large range day. And it trades into a premium PD array that can many times be the high of the week. That's the characteristics
121 00:20:13,530 --> 00:20:22,320 that we look for. So that's kind of like a tip that we can add to back to the one shot one kill content. If Monday is a big range day, and we trade up into a
122 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:33,570 premium relative to the daily, then we can really anticipate that being the high of the week. Now, generally, Mondays are going to be a small range day unless
123 00:20:33,570 --> 00:20:43,350 that type of scenario unfolds. Or the opposite would be if Monday has a big range day and trading down and it goes into a TD array, that's a discount on the
124 00:20:43,350 --> 00:20:58,170 daily chart, then we can anticipate Monday becoming the low of the low of the week. Tuesday usually is a good day to trade. In terms of specifics of one shot,
125 00:20:58,170 --> 00:21:09,510 one kill, usually, one bullish week's Tuesday has a 70 likelihood of creating the low of the week in London. And therefore it creates a high probability
126 00:21:09,660 --> 00:21:17,760 scenario to be a day trader on Tuesdays and regrow versus said for when the markets are bearish. You have 70% likelihood to Tuesday's London Open will
127 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:22,860 create the high of the week. So generally Tuesdays are really good days to trade for day trades. And
128 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:34,710 Wednesday are really ideal scenarios because what you'll see is you have Sunday to use those candles in your platform, Monday and Tuesday. Or if you don't have
129 00:21:34,710 --> 00:21:42,780 Sunday, you have Monday and Tuesday behind you. And it gives you some insight as we're going to share in this teaching to help frame confidence around trading
130 00:21:42,900 --> 00:21:51,210 Wednesday with a particular mindset going into London in New York. So generally ideal day trading is seen on Wednesday because you have some data midweek.
131 00:21:53,460 --> 00:22:04,620 Thursday, again, is a generally ideal scenario but gotta be careful, Thursday's can reverse. Usually, the weekly range is again kept by Thursday's New York
132 00:22:04,620 --> 00:22:15,450 session. So be mindful that if we do get a good day trade in, in Thursday's London Open, it may fizzle out and actually reverse the week. During the
133 00:22:15,450 --> 00:22:28,290 Thursday, New York or London close scenario. Friday's typically a small range as we close a week. But if there are objectives that haven't been met by Thursday,
134 00:22:28,590 --> 00:22:38,850 in terms of the PD arrays, you could see a surprise expansion on Friday running into that PD array. So it's kind of like a toss up, it depends on what we've
135 00:22:38,850 --> 00:22:48,120 seen in the weekly range. If Thursday has met the daily PD array, whether it be premium or discount that we've traded for in terms of a target for the weekly
136 00:22:48,150 --> 00:22:57,150 range as a whole. If that's been met by Thursday, chances are Friday's going to be really quiet day. If it has not been met, Friday can generally sometimes
137 00:22:57,150 --> 00:22:59,400 surprise us and have a big, large range day.
138 00:23:05,250 --> 00:23:18,300 The weekly range framework cable we look for is on Sunday, we determined a new trading week's opening price. Now this will aid us in intra week with day trade
139 00:23:18,300 --> 00:23:26,640 directional bias to work with. Now, I already know some of you are thinking and panicking Oh no, I don't use Sunday candles, my broker doesn't use Sunday data,
140 00:23:26,670 --> 00:23:35,490 no problem, just use your opening on Monday, it's not that big of a deal, it's still going to come to the same consensus anyway, just relax. It's not going to
141 00:23:35,490 --> 00:23:45,570 be that much of a disparity. But we're going to note this Sunday opening and we're going to note it and draw it out in time all the way through our 60 minute
142 00:23:45,570 --> 00:23:47,880 or one hour chart all the way up to Thursday.
143 00:23:53,850 --> 00:24:04,950 And the weekly range framework. What we do with this is we take that opening range price from Sunday, and we draw it out on our hourly chart and we draw it
144 00:24:04,950 --> 00:24:14,970 all the way until Thursday. Now why is it Thursday? Well, because your profile, say on Thursday, you could see a reversal unfold for the week. So while we do
145 00:24:14,970 --> 00:24:26,940 have some rules that we're gonna be sharing with you here, Thursday may change that entirely. And it'll also frame a high probability reversal confirmation, if
146 00:24:26,940 --> 00:24:33,810 you will, if price gets back above and when it's bearish. Like for instance, look at this chart here. If price were to trade back above the opening price on
147 00:24:33,810 --> 00:24:44,070 Sunday during Thursday's trading, we've probably turned the corner we had a major intra week reversal. And that many times indicates a longer term one shot
148 00:24:44,070 --> 00:24:54,000 one kill bullish so we could get in sync with that, if not the next day and Friday. We could certainly be in sync with it the next trading week. So think
149 00:24:54,000 --> 00:25:04,950 about that in terms of intra week reversals. If we see it trade back above it On this case, since it was bearish for the week, if we trade above Sunday's opening
150 00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:11,670 on Thursday, we've had an intra week reversal. And obviously, that goes without saying it's pretty obvious. And some of you that are very cynical, it's like,
151 00:25:11,670 --> 00:25:21,750 well, good grief. That's obvious, Michael. But think about what it's telling you, you've had a intermediate term reversal. So now, therefore, Friday may not
152 00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:32,370 give you a set up the trade long. But next week, you can you can trade long or Monday right out the gate looking for a low in New York and London to get long
153 00:25:32,370 --> 00:25:41,400 and take those positions throughout the rest of the next week. If this scenario was reversed, and we had Sunday's opening, forecast all the way and drawn
154 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:51,570 through our hourly chart all get to Thursday. And it started bullish for the week, and then traded down Thursday, through that Sunday's opening price. That
155 00:25:51,660 --> 00:26:00,630 registers a potential weekly reversal. So therefore, we can get in sync the very next day on Friday, selling short, or the next week, our scenario would go into
156 00:26:00,630 --> 00:26:07,680 that new week, going short break from jump on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, looking for the high of the week to form and then therefore going short every
157 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:18,480 day, in the following week, based on an insight. But the Sunday opening price filter, we look for price to trade above this level, generally, early in the
158 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:27,510 week during bearish weekly directional bias and numbers that we're expecting price to trade down away from a PD array, that's a premium. Okay, we've seen
159 00:26:27,510 --> 00:26:35,760 price move up into a premium. It's already traded, it has already fulfilled a premium level. So therefore, we're expecting expansion on the downside. And we
160 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:42,690 see the opening price and price starts to trade up Sunday and going into Monday trades above it. So therefore, we're seeing a little bit of a Judas swing.
161 00:26:43,140 --> 00:26:51,390 That's the criteria we're looking for. And then throughout the rest of the week, as long as price is lower than this Sunday opening price each day of the week.
162 00:26:51,540 --> 00:27:04,260 We look to sell short in all of our day trades. The caveat is until a higher timeframe. PD Ray That's contrary to how our trade is unfolding. is traded to in
163 00:27:04,260 --> 00:27:14,700 other words, if we're looking for bearish ideas, okay, directional wise, we're expecting the weekly candle to be closing lower than it opened on Sunday. No,
164 00:27:14,700 --> 00:27:23,490 what's that weekly candle closing Friday will close lower than opened on Sundays opening or if your data provider opens on Monday. If we're expecting that down
165 00:27:23,490 --> 00:27:35,460 candle on a weekly basis is long as we are trading below the Sunday's opening price. We're looking to sell short every single day in London and continuation
166 00:27:35,460 --> 00:27:45,210 in New York. But this is only true. In this case. While we're looking for sell days every day of the week. While we're below the sun the opening price. That's
167 00:27:45,210 --> 00:27:55,200 true only until we trade to a higher timeframe discount pdra that has us on caution. And we may see intra week reversal if that happens. Otherwise, we
168 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:59,340 continuously take day trades short in London and continuations in New York.
169 00:28:04,740 --> 00:28:14,580 Continuing with the weekly range framework, the opposite set here for Sunday's opening price filter. We look for price to trade below this level early in the
170 00:28:14,580 --> 00:28:24,720 week during bullish weekly directional bias. In other words, if price is trading at a higher timeframe, discount pdra whether it be a monthly, weekly and daily,
171 00:28:24,870 --> 00:28:34,710 there's suggestions that the price is really oversold institutionally speaking not because of indicators. But in relative terms. If we expect something to be
172 00:28:34,710 --> 00:28:42,720 bullish on a daily chart, that's really the only thing we really need. If the daily is at a discount, and we're trading at a discount pdra prices suggesting
173 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:53,220 higher prices, institutional order flow suggesting higher prices, we're going to forecast the weekly candle to close higher than opens on Sunday. As long as
174 00:28:53,220 --> 00:29:02,190 price is higher than this Sunday, opening price each day of the week, we look to buy long in all of our day trades. That means we're looking for the low to form
175 00:29:02,190 --> 00:29:13,320 in London, and a continuation buy in New York. And we continuously hold this idea throughout the week until a higher Time Frame PD array in the form of
176 00:29:13,350 --> 00:29:24,750 premium is traded to then we will expect a potential intra week reversal. So I know it's it's probably going way past your heads and it's going a lot of
177 00:29:24,750 --> 00:29:33,300 information because many of you probably shortchange yourself studying the previous lessons. I'm going to give you a few examples and we look back at the
178 00:29:33,300 --> 00:29:46,140 cable over the last three weeks and give you some scenarios and what this did and how it helps. Okay, so we're looking at a British Pound USD weekly chart. So
179 00:29:46,140 --> 00:29:57,510 every range here represents a weekly amount of data. In other words, that's the open high low and close of an entire week. I want you to focus primarily at this
180 00:29:57,510 --> 00:30:06,060 chart and think about power three go After my free tutorials you understand what power three is. But I want you to look at these candles and remind yourself that
181 00:30:06,060 --> 00:30:15,870 the weekly range candles that are large, have the opening price and closing price at opposing ends of the candlestick range. And this is important because
182 00:30:15,870 --> 00:30:26,730 it's teaching you to focus in anticipate range expansion. range expansion on a weekly chart is a goldmine. As long as you know what the most likely probable
183 00:30:26,730 --> 00:30:36,960 direction is, on a weekly candle that we're forming right now, you can find setups, you don't have to worry about missing anything. Because last time I
184 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:45,810 checked, there's every new week, there's a new candle forming on a weekly basis. So there's new setups to form. Now some weeks are better than others, you're
185 00:30:45,810 --> 00:30:54,120 going to be small weeks, there's going to be wick real high wick real low candles and then creating a small little body. Those leaks can be challenging
186 00:30:54,120 --> 00:31:03,090 sometimes. But there's other times when the when the candle itself is rather small. And you're not going to make money every single week, every single day,
187 00:31:03,180 --> 00:31:10,170 every single month, that is not going to happen even with my content, because you're going to do something to break the rules, or the markets is simply not
188 00:31:10,170 --> 00:31:21,030 going to do what you hoped it was going to do. But on a large scale probability spectrum, you have more odds of finding opportunities using this criteria than
189 00:31:21,030 --> 00:31:32,370 in any other fashion. No other discipline out there gives you this focus point to work within. So now looking at this weekly chart, we're going to look at a
190 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:39,360 bullish candle. Okay, and what we're focusing on primarily is that the open is usually near the low of the week.
191 00:31:40,710 --> 00:31:48,570 And the close is near the high of the week. Now let's think about this in relative terms. It's a weekly candle. So therefore the open is Sunday's opening.
192 00:31:48,990 --> 00:31:57,870 Or if your data is only providing Monday, not Sunday candles, it's going to be the Monday opening. Okay, so what we're looking for is that little bit of
193 00:31:57,870 --> 00:32:04,800 movement below the opening price when we're primarily bullish. And then we're going to be looking for expansion throughout the rest of the week until Friday's
194 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:13,770 close, all the way between the open and close that your range that you're working within. Now I know what you're thinking, How do I know how far away the
195 00:32:13,770 --> 00:32:20,700 close is going to be? There's calculations and things I'm going to give you to determine what the weekly range may be. And there's going to be things you have
196 00:32:20,700 --> 00:32:30,330 to overlap with that in terms of IP to date ranges and PD arrays. But between this lesson and what you'll learn in later lessons just for now, focus on the
197 00:32:30,330 --> 00:32:40,350 fundamentals of knowing that there's a large range based on a weekly candle that ranges between the opening on Sunday or your data provider only opening on
198 00:32:40,350 --> 00:32:49,290 Monday, that opening price to Friday's close. That's your time window. We're looking for day trades throughout the week, Monday through Friday, we have five
199 00:32:49,290 --> 00:32:57,390 opportunities. And if we're going to be fair about it, we generally have basically nine setups that are pretty much solid, we generally don't rush a
200 00:32:57,390 --> 00:33:05,010 London setup on Monday. But if you're absolutely aggressive, you can be looking for setups on Monday, especially if you have a big range, starting right out of
201 00:33:05,010 --> 00:33:15,090 the gate on Sunday going into Monday, Frankfurt. So if that happens, then that's pretty much a short deal that you should be paying attention to London on
202 00:33:15,090 --> 00:33:24,060 Monday. So you still have to be paying attention to it. So regardless of where you live in the world, around midnight, in New York time on Monday, you need to
203 00:33:24,060 --> 00:33:34,530 be looking at the charts and see how big the range was for Asia on Mondays trading. So from Sunday's opening, all into Frankfurt setup. You know what that
204 00:33:34,530 --> 00:33:43,920 looks like by looking at midnight, and Monday morning, New York time. And if it's a big range, then you primarily want to look for that weekly, high or low
205 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:51,540 to form on Monday, because it's in a rush to get somewhere in a hurry. If you look at the daily chart, many times it's going to line up with a premium, or
206 00:33:51,540 --> 00:34:01,140 discount array, and then you pretty much know what you're gonna probably do the rest of the week. In the same thing in reverse terms, looking at a down candle.
207 00:34:01,620 --> 00:34:08,670 For the week, we were looking primarily from the open at the beginning we get Sunday. Or again, if you don't have Sunday candles in your platform, we're
208 00:34:08,670 --> 00:34:17,250 looking at the opening price on your Monday feed to Friday's close. That's the range you're operating in. So you're looking for shorts in this scenario, every
209 00:34:17,250 --> 00:34:27,540 day looking for shorts, as long as we're below that opening price formed at Sunday or Monday. That filter gives you focus to look for now again, we don't
210 00:34:27,540 --> 00:34:38,880 just simply go and look at just because for instance Tuesday's long and open may be lower. Okay, it may be lower than Sunday's opening price in Tuesday's long
211 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:47,550 and open. So that does not mean simply go in there and start going short because I just said something in general terms like that. No, we're going to show you in
212 00:34:47,550 --> 00:34:56,370 three examples what can happen and why that isn't always that simple. You have to look at again, the PD arrays and the PD array matrix
213 00:35:01,380 --> 00:35:14,520 Okay, our first and three examples here, we're looking at the daily chart of the pound. And this is illustrating a premium pdra on a daily chart in the form of a
214 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:26,100 daily rejection block. Okay, and an old low discount PD array. So we have two reference points framed here. And we're going to look at the week of this
215 00:35:26,100 --> 00:35:38,730 recording. Okay, and you can see, all of the days for this particular week are noted, and our opening prices forecasted throughout the week until Thursday,
216 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:47,100 Thursday has a delineation, she can see the separation amongst all the other days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and then Friday, you can see that we had that
217 00:35:47,100 --> 00:36:00,870 daily rejection block, premium pdra traded to and above the opening price on Sunday. And price started trading softer right away on Monday, trading lower now
218 00:36:00,870 --> 00:36:13,830 on Tuesday. Okay, we had a sell off right after the transition from Monday into Tuesday, it sold off and within consolidation, and consolidation continued all
219 00:36:13,830 --> 00:36:25,980 the way into the London Open for Wednesday, and then price rally again. Now think about what's happened here on Wednesday, Tuesday and Wednesday, price had
220 00:36:25,980 --> 00:36:36,360 traded down into a fair value gap. So we had gapped support. And you can see that gap really being noted here on the previous week. But we'll look at that
221 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:47,490 week after this one. But price traded down and found support and couldn't find its way below 124 30. Tuesday and Wednesday. Finally it rallied up creating
222 00:36:47,490 --> 00:36:59,070 another consolidation. And then Thursday, it trades up intraday, creating a high, that's higher than the consolidation that was formed in Wednesday, and it
223 00:36:59,070 --> 00:37:11,940 was rejected. And then we sold off on non farm payrolls on Friday. The general consensus is that we were looking for cells below that opening price on Sunday,
224 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:26,190 because they had traded into the daily rejection block PD array in a premium basis. This is the reason why I gave you short objectives of 124 2123 75. And
225 00:37:26,190 --> 00:37:40,980 then 123 10 123 10 Didn't get traded too, but 123 75 did. And we had a low of the week of 123 65. And that's 10 pips below the low that formed for this old
226 00:37:41,430 --> 00:37:42,810 low discount PD array.
227 00:37:48,780 --> 00:37:59,310 Okay, our second scenario or example, for case study, we have a daily rejection block premium PD array, and we have a bullish order block low discount PD array.
228 00:38:03,150 --> 00:38:13,080 Okay, on the previous week, prior to the week of this recording, you can see the opening price on Sunday. And right away price shoots out the gate on Monday
229 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:26,700 trades up aggressively, trades higher, and then sells off again in London of Tuesday. And it trades down through the opening price. Now watch what happens on
230 00:38:26,700 --> 00:38:37,020 Wednesday, the mantra would be okay, we're below the selling point of Sunday's opening price. So therefore, I should be looking to sell short because we're
231 00:38:37,020 --> 00:38:45,750 below Sunday's opening price. No. And the reason why is because we traded down into a fair value gap relative to the daily chart. And we have that daily
232 00:38:45,750 --> 00:38:54,360 discount bullish order block. See how it stopped it didn't extracts. So while we're still below the opening price, and we hit a PD array in a discount
233 00:38:54,360 --> 00:39:04,290 contrarian scale North we're looking at something that would be opposing our expectations on lower pricing. If we're at a discount on the daily, if it hits
234 00:39:04,290 --> 00:39:14,490 that we have to look at what that pdra is, is it premium or discount in this case, it's discount. So therefore it's going to offer support. We cannot be a
235 00:39:14,490 --> 00:39:25,920 seller in this particular setup. And we anticipate what unfolding a reversal. So we have Wednesday's profile, Wednesday reversal or low the week form. And then
236 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:34,260 we can change gears and forget the Sundays opening price. And we're going to focus primarily on the weekly profile. And then we transitioned from that now
237 00:39:34,260 --> 00:39:43,800 we're going to incorporate that weekly profile of Wednesday low of the week. So you can see the low forming at that pdra discount on a daily basis, but the
238 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:55,470 order block in London on Wednesday it trades down and then on Thursday it trades down into that fair value a gap. Also a discount PD array, and then expands up
239 00:39:55,500 --> 00:40:06,600 above the opening price that's seen on Sunday. And then on Friday I day, it opens and trades down again into a bullish order block that was seen on
240 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:18,060 Thursday's trading. And then it expands up against once more closing in the liquidity void formed on Tuesday's trading. So you can see how it's just simply
241 00:40:18,060 --> 00:40:26,520 not watch a video from ICT. And there it is, it's as simple as that. You have to blend some things and look at what would be barriers, where what are the
242 00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:35,610 barriers or speed bumps to you getting to what you think price is going to do. Because we understand if the data ranges looking back 2014 60 days, we
243 00:40:35,610 --> 00:40:46,980 understand the pdra matrix, what makes up premium array, what makes a discount array, and where we're at in that scheme of the matrix are we above or below
244 00:40:46,980 --> 00:40:54,720 equilibrium. In this case, when price traded down Wednesday into that daily discount, bullish order block, you can't just simply say I'm going to go sell in
245 00:40:54,720 --> 00:41:03,540 short, because it rallied up in London, it's sold off a little bit the trade down that bullish order block inside the fair value gap. These are all daily PD
246 00:41:03,540 --> 00:41:13,590 arrays in the discount manner. So if it's discount that's trading on a daily chart, it's going to resist going lower, but it will paint all kinds of
247 00:41:13,590 --> 00:41:22,200 scenarios that would look like sell setups in the retail spectrum. And then all of a sudden you see the market trading higher. And it goes up into its
248 00:41:22,230 --> 00:41:34,170 respective contrary discount. PDA ring. In this case, it's the Tuesday liquidity void being closed and fair value got up at the 125 50 level of
249 00:41:39,090 --> 00:41:54,990 care. Last example here, we have the bullish order block low discount PD array. And we have an old high or equal highs premium pdra. Okay, and we have the
250 00:41:54,990 --> 00:42:05,400 opening price on this particular week's Sunday's opening. And price trades right from the opening. It curves up a little bit on Monday, and trades down right
251 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:15,090 away into the butcher block low discount PT array and rallies away from that. And then we have one more attempt to go lower on Tuesday, trades down into it
252 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:27,810 Tuesday and then expands up. So now Tuesday we've traded above Sunday's opening, we are at a discount on the daily. So therefore we have our scenario expecting
253 00:42:27,810 --> 00:42:38,160 the weekly range or candle to close higher than it opened on Sunday. So therefore our mantra is every day, we're looking for an open decline low of the
254 00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:51,750 day, buy it in London. In New York, we're looking for retracement into the range that was created from London slow to the high formed prior to 820 8:30am. In
255 00:42:51,750 --> 00:43:01,950 that in that realm. We're looking for that CME opening, which is 8:20am New York time. When that occurs, generally that's going to be the setup in New York. And
256 00:43:01,950 --> 00:43:12,090 so you see a continuation therefore, and we're going to be looking for an expansion continuing on the move. So we have the criteria met with a discount PD
257 00:43:12,090 --> 00:43:21,720 around the daily being met. Well, Monday's trading, we trade above Sundays opening price on Tuesday. So therefore, Wednesday, Thursday, we're looking for
258 00:43:21,720 --> 00:43:35,010 openings in London to trade down buy at a logical discount PD array in its lower timeframe hourly chart. And look what happens on Friday. The criteria says that
259 00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:48,420 Friday can be a quiet day. And the weekly range can be kept by Thursday's trading in New York. And you see that happens here. Notice also because we did
260 00:43:48,420 --> 00:44:01,470 not hit the old high or equal high premium PD array that particular week on the 24th of March. On Sunday, we opened up rallying right away and it makes a run
261 00:44:01,470 --> 00:44:11,100 for what the daily PD right equal highs. Once it hit those equal highs. Then on Tuesday, we see the week that we just talked about, it creates that failure
262 00:44:11,100 --> 00:44:21,360 swing around that 125 90 level creating the high of the week on Tuesday. So there's that overlap of PD arrays that caused the previous examples weekly high
263 00:44:21,630 --> 00:44:30,900 the form on Monday and Tuesday. So you have to blend some things, but incorporating the Sundays opening price and blending it with PD arrays from a
264 00:44:30,900 --> 00:44:43,050 discount and premium basis on a daily chart. You can frame out what the weekly range will be. This is this you also with one shot one kill. But more
265 00:44:43,050 --> 00:44:51,300 importantly, it helps us frame whether we're going to be a buyer or seller each day as a day trader. And if that condition is really there, if we don't get the
266 00:44:51,660 --> 00:45:00,420 open and decline in London that we're looking for to be a buyer and say this rallies, we don't do anything with it. Or if it trades down later in the Day in
267 00:45:00,420 --> 00:45:07,230 New York, we can be a buyer in New York and then look for the expansion the upside when we're bullish. So hopefully this has been insightful to you, we're
268 00:45:07,230 --> 00:45:15,390 gonna build a lot more on this information throughout this month, maybe a lot more details and processes that you go through. But this is a strong foundation,
269 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:24,600 it helps fill in a lot of gaps from my day trading intraday stuff and power three, and especially with the one shot one kill setups that you learned about
270 00:45:24,630 --> 00:45:34,890 in the previous month in March. But it's important to isn't simply you don't look at the opening price on Sunday, and therefore it's above or below. So I'm
271 00:45:34,890 --> 00:45:44,100 gonna just do that now you have to incorporate the PD arrays and again, this is the reason why it's not to simply watch a video and do it you have to study, you
272 00:45:44,100 --> 00:45:52,380 have to have these things on your chart, know what they are, identify them, label them on your chart, and when it's traded to you anticipate specific things
273 00:45:52,380 --> 00:46:01,860 to unfold. ELLIPTA will move from one PDF array to the next from a discount to a premium from a premium to a discount. And knowing what they are on a daily chart
274 00:46:01,890 --> 00:46:10,890 will help you build an framework for your weekly candle forecasting. And if you are trading in the right direction, you only need really one good day of the
275 00:46:10,890 --> 00:46:20,880 week. Think about it. If you get 30 to 50 pips in one trading day, that is all you need. But I know you're gonna want to do more than that, but use the rules
276 00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:29,100 that's been shown to you thus far this month in this first teaching, and we're gonna build on it and our understanding about how we can incorporate all these
277 00:46:29,100 --> 00:46:36,060 rules and more rules, leading to your complete day trading system. Until next lesson, wish you good luck and good trading.