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72-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 7 - One Shot One Kill Model

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-03 13:05
1 00:00:10,380 --> 00:00:21,930 ICT: Okay folks, Welcome to Lesson Eight. one shot one kill trading model for the short term trading module for ICT mentorship is the last of Marches content.
2 00:00:27,780 --> 00:00:39,240 Okay, one shot one kill setups. What does it require to do these efficiently and successfully? Well, first, you have to know all the macro conditions, and all
3 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:50,730 the January content lessons. You have to be proficient with understanding the IP to data ranges, looking back at the last 2040 and 60 trading days. Looking for
4 00:00:50,730 --> 00:01:06,780 PDA array matrix concepts applied to both time and price. You need the understanding of position trading logical concepts you need to understand the
5 00:01:06,780 --> 00:01:24,180 swing trading module concepts the short term trading tutorials on the ICT website the power three concept apply to weekly candles or ranges. And I'll talk
6 00:01:24,180 --> 00:01:30,450 about that in a few moments. The intraday concepts from ICT day trading modules.
7 00:01:35,610 --> 00:01:47,280 They have weak concept, looking for the higher low to form a Monday through Wednesday with a 72 odds of it happening. Using fibs for targeting and
8 00:01:47,280 --> 00:02:02,700 understanding the correct price points. Time of day or ICT kill zones for entries on one shot, one kill setups. And you didn't have seasonal tendencies
9 00:02:02,700 --> 00:02:16,920 that may impact or frame directional setups. And lastly, need to understand the CRT or Commitment of Traders analysis and commercial hedging programs. Now, I
10 00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:27,450 said when we started this mentorship that this was intended to fill in the gaps that I purposely left in all my free tutorials. Now if you've gone through the
11 00:02:27,450 --> 00:02:38,850 mentorship so far, and you've not really studied all of my free tutorials that are on my website, now's where you're going to feel that sting of having never
12 00:02:38,850 --> 00:02:49,140 done it. It was intended and I've told you before, the prerequisite is to know those free tutorials. Everything that I'm going to show you in this module is
13 00:02:49,140 --> 00:02:59,670 really just a quick fill in the gaps. And then you'll understand how it is I do one shot one kill. The gaps that remain for this month are filled in with the
14 00:02:59,670 --> 00:03:14,550 intraday concepts for day trading. And it just basically helps you get more precise. Do you need it? Not necessarily? Will you want it? Most likely? So if
15 00:03:14,550 --> 00:03:26,010 you've gone this far, and you really want to know all the intricate details about how I finally narrowed down very tight, small risk, high yield setups,
16 00:03:26,310 --> 00:03:37,170 like you've seen lined and mapped out this week with the euro dollar. Yen you need the intraday concepts to get that precise, but you don't need it to do one
17 00:03:37,170 --> 00:03:49,140 shot one kill, because you don't need. There's other things that help you get close to, but not that precise. That's already been shown in the content for
18 00:03:49,140 --> 00:03:58,620 this month in the previous months. Now as it relates to the CFD analysis and commercial hedging programs, obviously everyone's aware of the commitment of
19 00:03:58,620 --> 00:04:09,810 traders report where they plot the net traders position of each commercial and small speculator and large trader. And Larry Williams was the first one to do
20 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:21,150 real good work on that back in the 70s. With his book, how I made a million Austrian commodities last year. But in my own study, I believe I've taken it to
21 00:04:21,180 --> 00:04:33,270 another level no one else does what I do with the co2 data, and I'm going to show you again is module in this teaching, how it is that I incorporate that
22 00:04:33,270 --> 00:04:41,160 information. Now when we get to the commodity section. later on this year, when I'm teaching the commodities, I'll actually show you how to go in and construct
23 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:53,730 the commercial hedges program and how to look for high probability setups using the information but I'm going to give you one set up in here for the Euro dollar
24 00:04:53,730 --> 00:05:01,920 that was just like a no brainer. So you'll see why this week was just pretty much no problem at all. When they were gonna come down like it did
25 00:05:07,590 --> 00:05:16,740 alright, so the one shot one killed trade procedure. Okay, this is kind of like a back of a matchbook idea. Just real quick, short. And what I mean by that is,
26 00:05:17,220 --> 00:05:25,800 you should already know a majority of what I'm going to refer to here, procedurally. So this is the reason why you need to have a mentorship. This is
27 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:34,980 the reason why I had to have a modular approach to learning. Because there's such a vast amount of information that you need to be aware of. You just simply
28 00:05:34,980 --> 00:05:43,110 can't make a video and here it is, here's how you trade. For those that have gone through all of my free tutorials. And this far in the mentorship, you can
29 00:05:43,110 --> 00:05:53,310 now think about how much information you now have. Now, you probably flounder for a little while wondering, do I have too much information? Do I have analysis
30 00:05:53,310 --> 00:06:02,010 paralysis, and it's simply because you haven't had a procedural way of using all the information. So we've gone through a lot of content between the free
31 00:06:02,010 --> 00:06:14,400 tutorials since 2010, all the way to now now through 2016 2017 circa, you are now learning all of the procedural things that fills in the gaps. And by the
32 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:23,010 time you end this mentorship, you'll know everything there is to know about ICT concepts and how to apply it. But the first thing we do when we look at our
33 00:06:23,010 --> 00:06:31,290 market, and we're going to use Eurodollar as our example, we're going to determine the current or potential next quarterly shift. Remember that we talked
34 00:06:31,290 --> 00:06:45,450 about that in January. We're going to identify the higher timeframe PD arrays in the HIPAA data ranges. Again, that's content from January. We're going to refer
35 00:06:45,450 --> 00:06:56,790 to the interest rate differentials and market profile have the rates? In other words, our interest rates, or treasuries, or the bond. Are those markets
36 00:06:56,850 --> 00:07:06,630 trending? Or are they stuck in a consolidation? If they're trending, then you're gonna get movement permitted in the Eurodollar. If they're consolidated and
37 00:07:06,630 --> 00:07:19,380 tight, it's gonna be very hard for the market to move around. We're going to be scouting seasonals throughout the calendar year that offer high odds of a move
38 00:07:19,410 --> 00:07:30,150 going higher or lower based on the seasonal tendency respectively. We're going to use swing analysis on price action on higher timeframes down to the 60 minute
39 00:07:30,150 --> 00:07:39,180 chart. So in other words, what we're doing is we're classifying all the price swings, we're looking at all the fractals, and we went over how larger trends
40 00:07:39,180 --> 00:07:46,830 have smaller swings that break into smaller swings that break into smaller swings, first and impulse swing than an expansion swing after the retracement.
41 00:07:47,130 --> 00:07:54,510 So by looking at the market, and Eurodollar and breaking that down, we can come to the conclusion of what price swings we're going to use for projections,
42 00:07:54,510 --> 00:08:06,300 measurements and retracements. We're going to anticipate specific weekly profiles that may unfold based on our analysis. If we're looking for lower
43 00:08:06,300 --> 00:08:18,630 prices, as we're going to justify in this teaching, we're gonna be looking for specific market templates, if you will, that allow bearish ideas. So the first
44 00:08:18,630 --> 00:08:29,580 thing you would look for is the Monday high the week, Tuesday high of the week, Wednesday reversal those types of scenarios. Then, by identifying those
45 00:08:29,580 --> 00:08:41,730 respective templates for the week, we're gonna be looking at the market maker manipulation templates to have the respective profile characteristics. Then you
46 00:08:41,730 --> 00:08:54,960 determine where the premium and discount ranges are in price action. And going to wait for volatility to signal a high odds of a large range being created. In
47 00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:03,840 other words when range expansion should ensue. Small ranges got large ranges if the markets in big ranges we know there's going to be a high probability for the
48 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:16,080 market to go quiet. We want to be getting in and the market is quiet so that we can expand and get larger ranges and big volatility refer to co2 which is
49 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:28,140 commitment of traders. Then the commercials versus the large traders in open interest to confirm Smart Money action. We look to frame and low resistance
50 00:09:28,140 --> 00:09:41,310 liquidity run with opposing PD rays are for bearish. We're looking to sell short at a premium PDA. And then we're going to be looking at a discount PDA to pair
51 00:09:41,310 --> 00:09:53,880 it up with we're going to use fibs converging with opposing PD arrays and blending it with time and price. In other words, what I'm looking for is a
52 00:09:53,880 --> 00:10:06,720 Fibonacci level that overlaps with a logical discount PD array And we're gonna be confirming our trade setups with inter market analysis.
53 00:10:15,180 --> 00:10:24,840 Alright, so we're looking at our one shot one kill setup on a Eurodollar. And as this was provided to you this week, the time of this recording the last week of
54 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:44,280 March 2017, I outlined through Twitter and tweets, the basis of expecting a high the form of the Euro dollar around the 10908 level. That was the level I called.
55 00:10:44,550 --> 00:10:59,970 And the actual High was 10909 on forex Ltd, platform. I projected a low the week at 106 50. That could have rolled over into Monday. But throughout the week, I
56 00:10:59,970 --> 00:11:24,630 gave a 106 95, low objective. And then ultimately, at the very last minute of the day on Friday's close, they pushed the Eurodollar down to 106 55. Now our
57 00:11:24,630 --> 00:11:35,220 objective was 106 50. If that's what we're looking for, we add five pips to that, that would have been your objective used in your own platform, some chunk
58 00:11:35,220 --> 00:11:46,830 traders and my own live feeds, I got down to one or 649 Seven, I'll leave it up to you to determine what you know what your data provider allowed for the low of
59 00:11:46,830 --> 00:11:58,320 the week for euro dollar. But for the Forex Ltd, it didn't make it down to one or 650. But I'm suspecting is probably going to open up lower on Sunday. That's
60 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:10,590 coming this weekend. And then obviously the that would fulfill the whole projected swing. But we're going to go into great detail about all this mountain
61 00:12:10,680 --> 00:12:19,800 apart from what's already been shared in this chart here. I'm not going to rehash what was already talked about in this week's teachings in the videos and
62 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:30,870 commentary. Because that is, in my opinion, a goldmine. And you need to go through those notes as well. But what frame this whole move and how I knew that
63 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:41,970 the high could most likely be formed on Monday, and we would look for a low one or 650. We're going to go into details about that now. Okay, so the first thing
64 00:12:41,970 --> 00:12:52,470 we're looking for is we're expecting either up move or a down move. So how do we start doing that? Well, we go to our seasonal tendency, okay, if you're a sports
65 00:12:52,470 --> 00:13:01,800 fan, you'd like to go and watch a specific stock sports team, like the baseball season or football season, you can actually track when those teams play on what
66 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:10,290 days in the calendar days and all that and you know, when they're going to play, they have they have a schedule they have to keep? Well, the markets almost have
67 00:13:10,290 --> 00:13:20,490 like a built in generic schedule as well, and is followed or tracked by way of using a seasonal tendency. Now I've shared these seasonal tendencies with you so
68 00:13:20,490 --> 00:13:32,400 far in the mentorship. And what we do is we look for times where the market has a real clear indication in both the long term and short term. Basically, the
69 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:42,300 blue and the red lines, they have to agree with a directional bias. And when they move in the same direction, red and blue. If they move in concert with one
70 00:13:42,300 --> 00:13:52,050 another, we have a really strong tendency to see that market generally move in that same direction. What we're going to focus on here is the month of March. As
71 00:13:52,050 --> 00:14:01,890 you can see, it initially starts off with a rally up into the middle of March and then declines to the last week of March going into the first week of April.
72 00:14:02,550 --> 00:14:10,320 So our tendency is to see the Euro dollar going lower. So we have a strong seasonal tendency for bearish prices for Eurodollar.
73 00:14:13,290 --> 00:14:20,670 Now we're gonna go over to the commitment of traders, hedging program. Now, you're not going to find this on the internet. There's nothing talked about it's
74 00:14:20,670 --> 00:14:29,820 not in books. I swear to the Lord Almighty. There's nothing out there like what I'm showing you here. Okay, what I do is I use the information from the
75 00:14:29,820 --> 00:14:43,140 commodity traders report and I make a new way of creating a zero sum line. So what I do is I look at the last year, okay, and I get the highest high and the
76 00:14:43,140 --> 00:14:51,300 lowest low of their commercial activity. In other words, I'm only tracking commercials. And I'll show you how to create all this and make it for yourself.
77 00:14:51,300 --> 00:15:01,290 It's a couple people in our group have emailed me asking for this specific indicator. There is no indicator. Okay, what I actually Do as I actually create
78 00:15:01,290 --> 00:15:10,890 this with paint. Okay, I grabbed the information, and then I actually by hand create it. And I know what you're thinking without track 39 markets, Michael,
79 00:15:11,100 --> 00:15:18,360 there's no way to keep up with it. Well, that's your fault, you shouldn't be tracking 39 markets. But when I focus on the two pairs that I like, which is
80 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:27,210 euro and cable, it takes literally seconds for me to do this. And it's not a big deal. But if you're going to be that hard up about it, I'm sure some of you that
81 00:15:27,210 --> 00:15:37,590 are in our group are capable of programming something, I'm certain of it. But once you learn how to do that, when we go into a commodity teaching, I'll leave
82 00:15:37,590 --> 00:15:47,340 out to you, you smart whippersnappers, that throw something together maybe for empty for platform that can provide us a real quick, easy way of doing it. And
83 00:15:47,340 --> 00:15:58,680 then you can go back to trading, you know, umpteen number of pairs with the information. But what I do is I look at the hedging program, that is illustrated
84 00:15:58,830 --> 00:16:08,250 by looking at the last calendar year. So I roll back data for 12 months, and I look at the highest highs and lowest low in their net positions of the
85 00:16:08,250 --> 00:16:14,940 commercials only I'm not looking at the large traders or the small specks, I don't really care the small specks are doing. But when we track Commitment of
86 00:16:14,940 --> 00:16:26,700 Traders report data for CO T data. Every week, this CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires traders that trade at a reportable level to report
87 00:16:26,730 --> 00:16:35,040 whether they're buying or selling, and the net positions that are held because commercial traders are like banks and large institutions and manufacturers of
88 00:16:35,070 --> 00:16:51,900 goods or commodities. There are groups that produce that a commercial level, and there are groups that are consuming or resellers. Okay, so there are users and
89 00:16:51,900 --> 00:17:01,020 creators of the commodity on a commercial level. And based on that there's always going to be buying and selling on a commercial basis. The net positions,
90 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:12,480 okay, are the collective whole of all their total buys, and all their total sales? And what are they more net long or net short as a basis. And what I do is
91 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:23,670 I take that information that comes by way of the CFTC. And I plot this graph here by simply using a website and the information and just basically throwing
92 00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:36,030 in some lipstick, and it helps me visually see what the commercials are doing. In terms of hedging. As you can see, at the time of this week, the commercials
93 00:17:36,030 --> 00:17:45,870 which is tracked by this line as it's below the zero line, okay, it's going to be marked red, that's going to be bearish. When it's above the zero line, their
94 00:17:45,870 --> 00:17:58,230 net long that would be bullish, okay. And back below the zero line, which would be represented between 100 and K and 50k. Okay, that that line I have drawn in
95 00:17:58,230 --> 00:18:07,920 here, that blue line that represents the new zero line that would otherwise be viewed like a regular commitment Treasury report. You don't need to see that as
96 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:20,700 I'm going to teach later on. But I've shown this in real quick, short sessions throughout my time teaching, but I'm gonna give you the details about how to use
97 00:18:20,700 --> 00:18:28,590 it in great detail about how I break it down. There's actual seasonal tendencies to their hedging programs that you actually look at to and their seasonal
98 00:18:28,590 --> 00:18:37,170 tendencies that go along with open interest declines as well. And it's really the information you need to know that to to do. megatrends, megatrade, you're
99 00:18:37,170 --> 00:18:43,770 like huge big moves take place, every year, there's like two or three of them are really explode, you want to be focusing on markets that give you those types
100 00:18:43,770 --> 00:18:54,360 of conditions. But I'm digressing. So let me get back to the discussion with the euro dollar. At the time of this week, the Euro Dollar was making a higher high
101 00:18:54,660 --> 00:19:04,740 than that of in January. But look at the commercials, they were hedging against those rallies. And they really went net short, selling aggressively in the rally
102 00:19:04,740 --> 00:19:17,100 above the January high and the December high of 2016. So as we made a higher high in the euro, the commercials are actually selling aggressively in that
103 00:19:17,100 --> 00:19:29,100 rally. So what are we seeing here? seasonal tendency that's highly probable for lower Euro prices. At the same time commercials are looking to sell short or
104 00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:38,220 they want to see prices going lower. Why? Because they're hedging against that rally. They're selling into that rally. Why would they want to do that? I don't
105 00:19:38,220 --> 00:19:46,350 know their banks. They do it all the time. But logically over a period of time looking at it, you'll see that they kind of put the brakes on market rally by
106 00:19:46,350 --> 00:19:56,400 selling aggressively into it. And that caps the market, as you've seen here this week. So we had a blending of two things, commercial short selling. Now if you
107 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:05,880 look at our commitment of traders report, you're not going to see that You're gonna see the net long. That's what screws everybody up, even Larry Williams,
108 00:20:06,150 --> 00:20:15,720 because they're looking at information, because they're looking at price through co2 data from an archaic caveman approach. Now, I'm not saying it can't be used
109 00:20:15,750 --> 00:20:23,070 efficiently and effectively, in certain conditions, like it's traditionally taught through Larry Williams, and everybody else is used now. But if it was
110 00:20:23,070 --> 00:20:32,310 just that easy, everybody was making money, right? So why is it the commercials aren't on the first everyone's list, because nobody knows how to use it. But
111 00:20:32,310 --> 00:20:40,590 you're learning how to do it. Now. Because you're in the clique, you're in the mentorship that teaches you everything about smart money. So what we do is that
112 00:20:40,590 --> 00:20:50,190 we use this graph, okay, that you're going to learn about in the commodity section of this teachings. That's later on in the month, I think it's in June.
113 00:20:51,510 --> 00:21:00,840 But I'll teach you how to use the hedging program and actually look for seasonal tendencies for when they would really be buying or selling certain times a year,
114 00:21:01,110 --> 00:21:07,860 and also their seasonal tendencies open interest. But open interest is not that important here, because we have two things blending together. And you really
115 00:21:07,860 --> 00:21:16,470 only need two things, the couple for smart money, you have the seasonal tendency, similar words, there's a seasonal influence that usually sees Euro
116 00:21:16,470 --> 00:21:25,650 dollar, and I don't know what it is, I don't need to know, seasonally. Historically, Euro dollar drops down in the second half of March going into
117 00:21:25,650 --> 00:21:33,960 April. Okay, so we're looking for that seasonal tendency to take place, not by itself, but we're looking for technicals to support that idea. While we can see
118 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:43,050 here, the commercials were heavily net selling into that rally we seen last week, leading into Monday's rally initially for this week, on the Eurodollar.
119 00:21:43,050 --> 00:21:59,010 And then it topped and tanked, going lower. You can see right here, that new higher high has been met with heavy net selling by the commercial traders. This
120 00:21:59,010 --> 00:22:10,890 is Smart Money shorting. So now how do we go in and justify these ideas just because we have a chart that looks like it indicates that commercials are
121 00:22:10,890 --> 00:22:17,640 selling. And we look at a seasonal tendency, just because these tendencies are suggesting higher or lower price, it does not mean that it's going to happen,
122 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:27,390 there has to be something lining up technically, to get in sync with the market and seasonal tendency. So it's not a seasonal tendency be all end all it has to
123 00:22:27,390 --> 00:22:37,590 happen. No seasonal tendency illustrates a probable condition or a probable outcome for the market direction. But without technicals aligning with that in a
124 00:22:37,620 --> 00:22:47,460 market environment that supports that idea, the seasonal tendency will get you in trouble. So we're looking at the dollar index here. I'm going to frame out
125 00:22:47,460 --> 00:22:56,760 the market conditions from a macro standpoint. And we're gonna look at the next quarterly shift and we're gonna look at how the markets should be moving. And
126 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:05,430 we're seeing here on a weekly chart for the dollar index, we have an old high. Now this is where its price is trading down to it
127 00:23:06,450 --> 00:23:18,810 for this, this week, we trade down into an old, weekly high, which makes this a discount PD array. And we move down into a daily timeframe. And we can actually
128 00:23:19,170 --> 00:23:33,780 see another level that is a old mitigation block. And it comes in at 9892. Now if you look at that level, you would obviously suspect that it's going to go to
129 00:23:33,780 --> 00:23:45,000 what we round up so it'd be 9095. You can go to 9890 if you want to because it's only two pips but generally the rules are round up to the nearest five or zero
130 00:23:45,000 --> 00:24:00,930 level. And then breaking it down into a hourly chart Dollar Index, we can see that this is again, illustrating the potential weekly range and we're looking
131 00:24:00,930 --> 00:24:12,330 for price to reach up from this discount level we saw on a weekly chart. We're looking for premium PDF PD arrays. So we go through our market looking at where
132 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:24,510 liquidity pools are bearish order blocks, fair value gaps, mitigation, blocks, breakers, old highs, and old lows though act as resistance. As you can see here,
133 00:24:24,540 --> 00:24:34,170 we have a few noted each one of these withdrawals on price. And you can see they are all traded to with no problem with the exception of the fair value gap. I
134 00:24:34,170 --> 00:24:43,830 suspect next week, maybe even on Sunday, we'll probably see a gap up on Sunday trading. That remains to be seen but certain looks like it wants to do that. And
135 00:24:44,100 --> 00:24:56,910 if it doesn't get up, we'll look for it to expand through Sunday into Monday into that fair value gap. Okay, getting a better look at the dollar index. This
136 00:24:56,910 --> 00:25:06,360 is an hourly chart. What I have here is I have the equal lift premium price point identified. So anything above equilibrium price point is going to be a
137 00:25:06,360 --> 00:25:16,230 premium, anything below it is going to be a discount. So now what we're doing is is we added the PD array matrix in the form of our premium and discount ranges.
138 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:25,500 So now we can see graphically thinking like an algorithmic trader. So we're getting in sync with the algorithm if data is going to pull and draw price up to
139 00:25:25,500 --> 00:25:37,740 these levels logically, to allow the bank traders to put on trades, or manage their in house book. So looking at what's going on. In this chart, we can see
140 00:25:37,740 --> 00:25:45,960 clearly that the market has been drawn back up to equilibrium. So you're always going to look for discount that at least try to pull to equilibrium, then it has
141 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:55,170 to determine if it wants to go into premium or it could go back down deeper into a discount. You never know that for sure. But you need to blend time and price
142 00:25:55,170 --> 00:26:08,730 with the if the data ranges looking back over the last 2014 60 days, also adding the PV array matrix as we have here. And we have all of the PD arrays noted that
143 00:26:08,730 --> 00:26:10,710 will be needed for this idea.
144 00:26:16,019 --> 00:26:24,569 Now we're going to look at the Euro pound because we had to have inter market analysis support it as well. So we've seen the dollar index poised to go higher,
145 00:26:24,869 --> 00:26:34,709 it's trading off a weekly discount PD array. And we have all of the premium PD arrays above us noted in the previous chart, that we'll be drawing price higher.
146 00:26:35,099 --> 00:26:45,749 So if we're looking for weak Euro dollar prices, we need to see if the Euro pound would support that idea as well. And you can see obviously, the Euro Pound
147 00:26:45,749 --> 00:26:57,539 has tanked. It went down to a very clear logical bullish order block. On a four hour basis, a series of down candles sets the tone for that bullish order block
148 00:26:57,659 --> 00:27:11,039 that is a discount PD array. It trades right down to it at Friday's close. But all throughout the week, we saw the Euro pound be aggressively sold off. So
149 00:27:11,039 --> 00:27:25,379 that's going to be weak for Euro dollar and strong for POUND DOLLAR. Okay, so we're looking at the Euro dollar now. And we can see here the Monday we opened
150 00:27:25,379 --> 00:27:36,599 up with a gap. Last Sunday, we opened up with a gap and traded higher throughout Monday. And we traded up into the weekly bearish order block for the euro
151 00:27:36,599 --> 00:27:44,519 dollar. And I'll leave you to look at your weekly bearish order block on your own platform. But this is the only level that was missing from this week's
152 00:27:44,519 --> 00:27:54,359 discussion because I want to be able to have some meat for this teaching. But the weekly bearish order block was traded into on Monday. And the question is,
153 00:27:54,359 --> 00:28:03,479 is how far into the weekly order block? Would you expect it to trade into Michael, while we're going to that in in the last slide for this teaching, but
154 00:28:04,469 --> 00:28:16,469 we're going to assume that you have studied the weekly templates that expect specific trading characteristics, you know, what days make a specific higher
155 00:28:16,469 --> 00:28:25,319 load of the week? And how the markets trade? You know, relative to the respective templates? And then what manipulation do we expect by the market
156 00:28:25,319 --> 00:28:34,769 makers with that specific template? Well, since I elected to use the bearish idea that your dollar is going to go lower because the dollar index was bullish,
157 00:28:35,099 --> 00:28:47,609 okay, or should have been bullish, trading off of its weekly discount pdra. Couple that with we have seasonal tendency for Eurodollar to decline. We had
158 00:28:47,819 --> 00:29:02,639 commercial supporting lower prices with heavy selling into the rally. We have the condition for lower expectation in pricing on euro dollar. That means we're
159 00:29:02,639 --> 00:29:11,939 going to be expecting either Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday to be the high of the week. So you always obviously start with the first week, which is going to be
160 00:29:11,969 --> 00:29:22,829 the Monday. Okay, so price opens up on Sunday gaps up and it starts trading immediately right up on Monday. So right away, we have to assume that Monday is
161 00:29:22,829 --> 00:29:34,769 going to be the high of the week. So what we do is we go through the procedures of potentially picking the high of the week. Now we don't try to go in here and
162 00:29:34,799 --> 00:29:42,719 time that weekly high. We don't try to do that. Now you can over time, do that yourself. But initially you don't you want to teach yourself to trust these
163 00:29:42,719 --> 00:29:51,539 concepts. Okay, because it can go up on Tuesday and make a higher high. That's why you have to give it a little bit of leeway and you can sell us a very small
164 00:29:51,539 --> 00:30:02,369 portion on Monday. And then if Tuesday fails to make a higher high at least you have a small piece on the higher level but it does go higher on Tuesday or
165 00:30:02,369 --> 00:30:13,709 Wednesday, at least you're not going to be at a full position underwater as it makes a higher high on those later days in the week. What we do is on the
166 00:30:13,709 --> 00:30:27,809 Monday, we look for price to trade up and then have a retracement intraday. So you can see the london session had a retracement and then an expansion all
167 00:30:27,809 --> 00:30:38,879 through New York, what I did was I measured the swing using the FIB from the high formed in London, down to the retracement low price prior to the New York
168 00:30:38,879 --> 00:30:52,679 session rally. And what I did was I measured that swing intraday, and it gave me the 10909 level. So what I did was I used one pip below that and call it 10908.
169 00:30:53,159 --> 00:31:02,999 Because generally I'm usually one pip off. And this case, I was one pip off still one pip short, because I thought I was making a compensation for it. But
170 00:31:03,359 --> 00:31:08,069 it actually went right to the level of 10909, at least on forex, LTDs platform.
171 00:31:09,660 --> 00:31:20,700 So by doing that, what we end up doing is we can see a way of projecting the weekly high, using the intraday stuff that will actually teach in April. And
172 00:31:20,700 --> 00:31:31,620 you'll be able to combine a lot of other things with time of day, and specific measurements that I used to more or less nailed down the power three, or dare I
173 00:31:31,620 --> 00:31:41,190 say, weekly Judas swing. So the initial rally here we saw on Monday was a false rally, all that was was heavy selling they engineered price higher, built in a
174 00:31:41,190 --> 00:31:52,920 premium, so they can sell it to the smart or lower, intelligent crowd. Obviously, the lower intelligent crowd, Smart Money sells it to lesser informed
175 00:31:52,920 --> 00:32:04,770 money. And that's what we saw on Monday. So it takes us to the Eurodollar, we're in a four hour chart, you could see the PD array and a discount zone, you can
176 00:32:04,770 --> 00:32:16,470 see that liquidity void that we identified here, and 106 50 level. So using the 106 50 level as our baseline, drawing up from that point, in our projected high
177 00:32:16,470 --> 00:32:25,890 the week, one to 908, which is what I called, that's our range, and then we can divide that in half, get an equilibrium price point. And having that we can now
178 00:32:25,890 --> 00:32:36,660 have a premium and discount PD array matrix. And then you start breaking down your markets, PD array for premium and discount, we know that we have a
179 00:32:36,660 --> 00:32:46,710 liquidity void in the lower end of the discount range. So that's what we're aiming for. That's what we are aiming for. We came out of a premium market at
180 00:32:46,710 --> 00:33:04,140 10908. And as the market traded lower, each one of the respective PDA arrays, gaps, liquidity pools, old highs, the selling to bearish waterblocks, all those
181 00:33:04,140 --> 00:33:12,480 things as the market slid lower. They were all contributing factors. As we mentioned throughout the analysis this week, through tweets and video production
182 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:23,400 and on the daily chart indexes. blending all these things together. All these things that I talk conceptually, the way you get to the results that you saw
183 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:32,910 this week is you have to use them, you have to practice with them, there's not going to be a clear cut. This is how you do it every single time there's going
184 00:33:32,910 --> 00:33:40,860 to be potential decisions that you're going to have to make. You might think that it's going to be the high of the week on Monday, and you sell short. And
185 00:33:40,860 --> 00:33:50,400 then Tuesday in London or New York, it runs up here and blows that high out. Are you going to stick with the idea and expect lower prices still? Or are you going
186 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:59,370 to be whipsawed and thinking, Okay, I was wrong and he go long. That's going to be a demon for you to wrestle with. So you have to come to a conclusion on what
187 00:33:59,370 --> 00:34:09,000 you want to do for the week and come hell or high water. Stick to that until it no longer makes sense. And that happens mid week. And you learned in a previous
188 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:19,050 lesson that there's many times a weekly reversal. So you'll always have a potential to mess it up. This is what makes it difficult, but it's so easy to
189 00:34:19,050 --> 00:34:31,290 do. How's that for an oxymoron? The point is in this teaching, we have a way of looking at price blending concepts together using experience obviously, okay,
190 00:34:31,290 --> 00:34:42,810 but over time, seeing it study in hindsight, you can look at 1015 20 years worth of data and get to these outcomes, okay, through study and build yourself a
191 00:34:42,900 --> 00:34:52,950 library mentally with past experiences using the information you don't need to have every little thing down to an hourly chart. You don't need that. You can
192 00:34:52,950 --> 00:34:58,410 see the outcome based on a daily chart you can see it so
193 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:12,360 I'm going to counsel you to use this as an example of how we can take the information blended together, and then come up with the nearest thing to
194 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:22,680 perfection you're going to ever see in market analysis being one pip off on the high of the week, and only five pips off the low of the week. But in most
195 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:34,290 platforms, one or 650 was hit with real time data, not demo. And the high that week was, you know, it was called and lower the week was called. So I'll leave
196 00:35:34,290 --> 00:35:45,990 it up to you to determine whether or not this is something that leads you to more proficiency as a trader? Or does it create new barriers for your learning?
197 00:35:46,260 --> 00:35:53,850 I think that if you go through the concepts, and especially when you finish the mentorship, you want to go back through all the lessons again, listen to all
198 00:35:53,850 --> 00:36:01,020 that boring stuff I talked about in January, we go back through all the lessons in September, October, November, and December and use all that information, I
199 00:36:01,020 --> 00:36:11,730 helped pull all the free tutorials together back then, some of you were complaining about that. Now you're seeing the fruits of having done that. And if
200 00:36:11,730 --> 00:36:18,750 you haven't watched the free tutorials, more than one time, at the end of this mentorship, you want to do that all over again. Okay, so that we kind of
201 00:36:18,750 --> 00:36:26,820 complete your whole learning. And by then you have everything you ever need to know, you'll know procedurally what you need to do. And yes, it requires a lot
202 00:36:26,820 --> 00:36:35,400 of work, it's going to require you to think it's going to require you to come into decision, and it's not going to be black and white. It's not going to be
203 00:36:35,700 --> 00:36:45,780 this or that initially. But when we get to August, there's a specific procedure that you go through from the top down. Okay, and it leads you to specific
204 00:36:45,780 --> 00:36:54,690 decision points that tells you Okay, right now, I think this is what I should be doing. Regardless of what discipline a trader you're going to be, it starts from
205 00:36:54,690 --> 00:37:04,650 the higher timeframe position Traders Mindset, as you would do with one shot one kill, and you reduce it down. And you reduce it down to swing trading, and you
206 00:37:04,650 --> 00:37:13,530 reduce it down to short term trading, you need to reduce it down to day trading. So you can get that real low risk, real tight precision. And if you really want
207 00:37:13,530 --> 00:37:23,340 to get insane about it, you can use the scalping ideas and get insane with 10 Pip stops but it's not necessary. You don't need that. But the point is, it's
208 00:37:23,340 --> 00:37:31,020 there. It's made available to you. So hopefully this has been insightful to you. And it helps fill in the gaps with the short term trading that I taught my free
209 00:37:31,020 --> 00:37:36,570 tutorials and it gives you all the elements to how I trade ICT, one shot one kill