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64-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 6 - The Million Dollar Swing Setup

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-28 11:01
1 00:00:08,340 --> 00:00:15,090 ICT: Welcome, folks to Lesson Eight of the swing trading module. This is the million dollar swing setup.
2 00:00:22,290 --> 00:00:32,070 Okay, folks, we're gonna be looking at what I refer to as the million dollar swing setup. Now, before we get into it does understand that we are not stating
3 00:00:32,070 --> 00:00:42,810 that you're making a million dollars on this, it just means that it says the best condition I have found in my technical tools that warrants in my opinion,
4 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:53,580 the greatest study and focus. And if we can get these types of scenarios from the marketplace, it just bodes well for us to seek out opportunities when they
5 00:00:53,580 --> 00:01:03,990 present themselves, the way I frame, the main doc swing set up is in this order here. And it starts with obviously looking for a seasonal tendency, I believe,
6 00:01:04,230 --> 00:01:14,040 wholeheartedly that there are strong seasonal tendencies in the marketplace that go without saying, show many instances over the years, how strong seasonal
7 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:24,360 tendencies are. Because there's a strong probability of it continuing in the future, I start all my analysis, there is a lot of trades that repeat themselves
8 00:01:24,390 --> 00:01:33,450 year to year where it just it would be foolish not to at least go in and investigate and see if there's any more technicals and fundamentals, if you want
9 00:01:33,450 --> 00:01:45,420 to say it that way to come to agreement with that trade idea in alignment with a seasonal tendency, whether it be bullish or bearish. Now, once we arrive at a
10 00:01:45,420 --> 00:01:53,370 time, it there is a seasonal tendency, the next thing is we have to do a major market analysis, we break the market down in terms of the fate of the four major
11 00:01:53,370 --> 00:02:02,490 asset classes. And then we determine if we are in a risk on risk off and are we in a trending or consolidating market profile. Then we move to an interim
12 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:13,560 analysis phase where we look at closely correlated pairs, we look at the relationships between the four major asset classes, stocks, bonds, or interest
13 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:27,210 rates, commodities and currencies. And then we do a top down analysis pulling out all of the major levels that would be salient for a swing trade. Then I go
14 00:02:27,210 --> 00:02:37,170 into and look for the trade setup itself. And then I go into, obviously, trade management. So we're gonna break this down and give us a little bit more detail
15 00:02:37,170 --> 00:02:49,710 on how I go about going in and looking for swing trades. Okay, the very first thing is, this is going to be a mindset. Type teaching gives you the process, if
16 00:02:49,710 --> 00:02:57,810 you will, what I go through how I think about things. So for seasonal tendency, the first question I asked myself is, is there a seasonal tendency to buy
17 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:09,450 presently? Or will there be soon? If the answer that question is yes, then I proceed to the major market analysis process? If the answer is no, then I
18 00:03:09,450 --> 00:03:22,320 consider another asset or market that does. If there's no asset class, or market offering a seasonal tendency, then I wait for a new one. Now, what does that
19 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:32,160 mean? That means there's no swing trades, I can not trade a swing trade unless the first rule is there has to be a seasonal tendency. Without a seasonal
20 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:40,740 tendency, I don't trade it. Now, there's going to be lots of swings that occur every single year, every calendar month, there's going to be something. But if
21 00:03:40,740 --> 00:03:50,490 it doesn't line up with a seasonal tendency for me, I'm not taking it. Now, if you want to forget this portion of the template, and you just want to simply
22 00:03:50,490 --> 00:03:58,290 look at everything else with the exception of seasonal tendency being there, then go right ahead. But for me personally, what makes this a million dollar
23 00:03:58,290 --> 00:04:12,000 setup is it's already based on historical evidence that it repeats itself many times, not just once in a while consistently. Now, once I've been cleared for a
24 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:22,800 seasonal tendency, that is in the process of either forming or is currently in effect, I go to the major market analysis process. The question I asked myself,
25 00:04:23,340 --> 00:04:33,960 are the interest rate markets and or currency markets? Basically, the dollar index trending? If the answer is yes, then I proceed to the commodity and stock
26 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:44,490 filter process. If the answer is no, then I consider short term or day trades for now. And I have to wait for swing trade conditions. Now notice what I've
27 00:04:44,490 --> 00:04:52,230 just stated there. Now we haven't talked about short term trading. We haven't talked about day trading yet. But what this does, it gives me a context to work
28 00:04:52,230 --> 00:05:00,900 from. If I don't have the conditions that are right for Swing Trading. I don't just simply say I can't trade anymore. I go down to the lower shorter timeframe
29 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:15,570 whether it be short term trading or day trading, I just can't force the opinion of taking a swing trade without the framework or the commodity and or stock
30 00:05:15,570 --> 00:05:22,170 markets trending. If yes, then proceed to the inter market analysis process.
31 00:05:24,660 --> 00:05:37,680 If no, then consider short term or day trades for now, and wait for swing trade conditions, I have to have both of these in agreement. Now, you only need one
32 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:45,510 from each group. In other words, it can be the interest rates market is trending, and the stock market's trending or it could be commodities and
33 00:05:45,510 --> 00:05:54,420 interest rates are trending or could be currencies and and commodities are trending, but you need one from each group to agree that there's a trending
34 00:05:54,420 --> 00:06:09,210 environment. Okay, the intermarket analysis phase, this is for foreign currency or metal, bullish swing trade setups. Okay, we look at the co2 hedging program,
35 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:20,640 and I asked myself, are commercials buying or selling currently, if they're buying, that means they're above the zero basis line that would be created by
36 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:33,120 looking at the last 12 months. If they're buying them, we proceed to the correlation analysis process. If they're selling, then consider short term or
37 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:42,630 day trades for now, wait for Swing Trading conditions. Now, let me rephrase this, again. This is all the conditions for buying a metal or a foreign
38 00:06:42,630 --> 00:06:55,740 currency. Okay, what we're looking for is the commercials to be lessening their shorts. If they're if they're below the zero line for the standard net trade if
39 00:06:55,740 --> 00:07:06,420 this graph, if it's below that zero line, that indicates that they're net short. But just because they're net short, doesn't mean that we can't use the
40 00:07:06,420 --> 00:07:14,910 information based on the last 12 months of range, what was the highest and the lowest range they've had in their net position, and divided that in half, we can
41 00:07:14,910 --> 00:07:25,200 get a new range in terms of whether they're buying or selling based on their hedging program. If we can see that they have moved into a buying side, even
42 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:36,720 below the zero level on the net trader system chart. If this occurs, we can be moving forward to the correlation analysis process. Now, if we are above the
43 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:46,890 zero line, then obviously the commercials are net long. But just be mindful that even with a net short position by the commercial traders, they can still be
44 00:07:46,890 --> 00:07:56,130 ferreted out in terms of what they're doing based on their hedging program in the last 12 months. If we don't see that, the frame the by by them being
45 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:07,530 lessening of their shorts or new buying and net long in a co2 graph, if that's not there, we have to either consider short term or day trades for now. In other
46 00:08:07,530 --> 00:08:17,910 words, we're waiting for swing trade conditions. The correlation analysis process, I caught the question I asked myself is is the dollar index supporting
47 00:08:18,300 --> 00:08:32,250 bearish price action for the US dollar? If yes, then I proceed to the commodity filter process. If no, then I consider short term or day trades for now. And I
48 00:08:32,250 --> 00:08:43,380 wait for swing trade conditions. Re iterating this if we're bullish on foreign currencies or metal, we're gonna be looking for the dollar index to be looking
49 00:08:43,380 --> 00:08:56,820 to trade lower or it's indicating bearish prices are in in order in order to SMT divergence against the metal or the foreign currency. If we can see that, then
50 00:08:56,820 --> 00:09:08,040 we can proceed to the commodity filter process. If we do not get that we wait for a day trade or short term trade. Commodity filter process I asked myself are
51 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:18,450 commodities rallying higher, breaking old highs or rejecting old lows? In other words, they're finding support and smashing through resistance levels. If we're
52 00:09:18,450 --> 00:09:30,150 seeing that, that bodes well, for our filter, we're seeing commodities being bullish while the dollar index is bearish. That's a normal symmetrical market
53 00:09:30,150 --> 00:09:41,790 condition. If the answer that question is yes, then we can proceed to the open interest filter process. If the answer is no, then we consider short term or day
54 00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:54,690 trades for now. And we have to wait for swing trade conditions. Open Interest filter process is open interest dropping or has it dropped 10 to 15% or more.
55 00:09:55,050 --> 00:10:05,790 This indicates commercial short covering. You can get the open interest for a mark Get bar chart.com. And I've done many examples of that. And I'll actually
56 00:10:05,790 --> 00:10:16,110 give all that in terms of the website addresses and all that in your PDF notes. But the answer is yes, then we proceed to the top down analysis process. If the
57 00:10:16,110 --> 00:10:21,090 answer is no, then we'll consider short term or day trades for now and wait for swing trade conditions.
58 00:10:25,289 --> 00:10:35,879 In a market analysis for foreign currencies and metal bearish swing trade setups, we look at the co2 hedging program last 12 months for the net traders
59 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:44,849 position on the commercial traders only with the highest range high and low of their net positions. I asked myself are commercial traders buying or selling
60 00:10:44,849 --> 00:10:58,439 currently? If the answer is selling, or if they're holding a net short position, then we proceed to the correlation analysis process. If it answers with buying
61 00:10:58,439 --> 00:11:10,499 buy the commercials or the net long thing had to consider short term or day trades for now, wait for swing trade conditions. correlation analysis process, I
62 00:11:10,499 --> 00:11:21,269 asked myself the question is the dollar index supporting bullish price action for the US dollar? If the answer is yes, then I proceed to the commodity filter
63 00:11:21,269 --> 00:11:34,649 process. If no then consider short term or day trades for now. And then wait for swing trade conditions. Commodity filter process I asked myself are commodities
64 00:11:34,649 --> 00:11:49,319 dropping lower? Are they breaking old lows and are they rejecting old highs? If the answer is yes, then I proceed on to the open interest filter process. If the
65 00:11:49,319 --> 00:12:00,839 answer's no then I consider short term or day trades for now, I wait for swing trade conditions open interest filter process is open interest rising or has it
66 00:12:00,839 --> 00:12:14,729 increased 10 to 15% or more? This is commercial short selling. If the answer is yes, then proceed to the top down analysis process. If the answer is no, then
67 00:12:14,729 --> 00:12:28,649 consider short term or day trades for now. Wait for Swing Trading conditions. The top down analysis process you know to nine to 18 month history of price
68 00:12:28,649 --> 00:12:42,119 action. You identify all PD arrays on monthly weekly daily and four hour timeframes and transpose all to your four hour time frame chart. Note to F to
69 00:12:42,119 --> 00:12:53,069 data ranges on the daily chart that are 2040 and 60 days back from today. Look for PD arrays to assist in their identification. If all the up to date range PD
70 00:12:53,069 --> 00:13:04,199 arrays are exhausted or traded to for the 20 day look back, move out to the 40 day look back then to the 60 day look back. Look for the IP to data ranges and
71 00:13:04,199 --> 00:13:15,089 PD arrays to converge with one another to determine high probability, institutional order flow and levels. Based on the bullish or bearish stance or
72 00:13:15,089 --> 00:13:25,799 premise your trading focus on the respective PD arrays for trade setups. For instance, if you're bullish, you're gonna be focusing on monthly weekly daily
73 00:13:25,829 --> 00:13:36,059 discount arrays to frame a long entry. If bearish, you're focusing on the monthly weekly daily premium arrays to frame a short
74 00:13:41,190 --> 00:13:56,160 the by trade setup. Going to note all monthly and weekly discount erase the best odds are seen with these levels offering an explosive rally. Confirm a monthly
75 00:13:56,220 --> 00:14:09,330 weekly daily discount or re entry. This is going to be support for Dollar Index weakness for SMP divergence. It's the dollar index confirms bearishness while
76 00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:24,030 trading at a discount rate on your currency of trade or metal execute trade entry the trade entry if buying a bullish breakout or mitigation block the ideal
77 00:14:24,030 --> 00:14:37,860 entry technique is buying on a stop if buying on a bullish liquidity void or fair value gap, ideal entry technique is buying on a stop. If buying on a
78 00:14:37,860 --> 00:14:49,020 bullish order block rejection block or below an old low ideal entry technique is buying on a limit. Use position trading entry techniques for limit and stop
79 00:14:49,020 --> 00:15:08,130 orders. See January study notes pages 128 and 129 and 141 and 142 Sell trade setup. Note all monthly weekly premium arrays. The best odds are seen in these
80 00:15:08,130 --> 00:15:26,310 levels offering an explosive rally lower confirm a monthly weekly daily array entry at resistance with the dollar index strength for s&p divergence. If Dollar
81 00:15:26,310 --> 00:15:42,120 Index confirms bullishness while trading at the premium array on your currency or metal trade, execute trade entry. Trade entry if shorting a bearish breaker
82 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:51,480 or mitigation block ideal entry technique is selling on a stop is shorting a bearish liquidity void or fair value gap. ideal entry technique is selling on a
83 00:15:51,480 --> 00:16:05,730 stop if shorting a bearish order block rejection block or above an old high ideal entry technique is selling only limit use position trading entry
84 00:16:05,730 --> 00:16:24,150 techniques for limit and or stop orders. See January study notes pages 120 and 1:29am 141 and 142. By trade management look for contrary monthly weekly daily
85 00:16:24,180 --> 00:16:35,460 premium arrays to reach for a while long if applicable. Look for fib extension confluences with premium arrays. Please stop loss from initial placement until
86 00:16:35,460 --> 00:16:48,270 price has moved 1/3 of your intended trade direction. If trade moves in your favor one quarter of your intended objective take something off in profit use 20
87 00:16:48,270 --> 00:17:02,130 to 30% for scaling first profit. Move protective stop loss to break even after first profit is taking never before. When trade moves to 50% of your intended
88 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:14,370 objective. Look for new buying opportunities to add back to one quarter taken off after a short term decline. Take full position off at intended premium array
89 00:17:14,430 --> 00:17:27,450 objective or 75 to 80% and trail stop loss below the most recent for our short term low. Be mindful the market can and will likely make it run for sell stops
90 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:38,790 at or just above 50% of the range you hold through. Don't rush trailing the stop loss. If you're stopped out reconsider the original reasons for the trade if
91 00:17:38,790 --> 00:17:52,980 they're still valid, reenter at a new monthly weekly or daily discount or re sell trade management. Look for contrary monthly weekly daily discount arrays to
92 00:17:52,980 --> 00:18:04,440 reach for while short. If applicable look for fib extension confluences for discount arrays. Leave leaves stop loss from initial placement until price has
93 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:16,170 moved 1/3 of your intended trade direction. If trade moves in your favor one quarter of your intended objective take something off in profit use 20 to 30%
94 00:18:16,170 --> 00:18:28,740 for scaling first profit. Move protective stop loss to break even after first profit is taking never before. When trade moves to 50% of your intended
95 00:18:28,740 --> 00:18:34,740 objective. Look for new shorting opportunities to add back to one quarter taken off after a short term bounce.
96 00:18:36,990 --> 00:18:48,930 Take full position off at intended discount array objective or 75 to 80% and trail stop loss above the most recent for our short term high. Be mindful the
97 00:18:48,930 --> 00:19:03,960 market can and will likely make it run for buy stops at or just below 50% of the range you hold through. Don't rush stop trailing if stopped out, reconsider the
98 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:09,300 original reasons for the trade if still valid reenter at new monthly weekly daily premium array
99 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:28,710 Okay, the main dive swing set up I mean looking at gold for this example. The seasonal tendency we like to focus on and we recently used in a mentorship. You
100 00:19:28,710 --> 00:19:41,460 can see through December into January there's a strong tendency for gold to rally and from January into February. Again we're using the calendar reference
101 00:19:41,460 --> 00:19:51,870 points at the bottom of the chart and off the top the top yellow squares, rounded squares. They're there the contract delivery months. What we're using is
102 00:19:51,930 --> 00:20:01,200 the calendar month at the bottom of the chart. So December to January is a strong tendency for the gold market to rally and in Continuing from January into
103 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:11,880 February the market generally for the gold market rallies. So we have a strong to seasonal tendency for gold to rally from December into mid February early
104 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:31,650 March. To have seasonal tendency, and we are checking our major market analysis. The bond markets are trending. The dollar index is trending the CRB Index is
105 00:20:31,650 --> 00:20:49,410 flat going into December. And the stock market is trending. So we have the market in a favorable condition for Swing Trading. Now, we start looking at what
106 00:20:49,410 --> 00:21:01,950 the commercials are doing the commercials. If we look back in the last 12 months, we can see that the range high made in January 2016. And we're looking
107 00:21:01,950 --> 00:21:14,250 at the red line as to commercials and the low end of their 12 month ranges here. And that's seen in the month of July. You can see as we went into the month of
108 00:21:14,370 --> 00:21:25,320 December 2016. The market shows the commercials going up in the green shaded area that's the range of the last 12 months that's a buying condition. That
109 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:36,180 means that they have hedged and bought aggressively in less than their shorts. At the same time, Williams percent R is in an oversold condition that means
110 00:21:36,180 --> 00:21:49,140 sentiment is extremely bearish. While the commercials are showing a lessening of shorts, and the open interest is declined. And here we can see the purple line
111 00:21:49,140 --> 00:22:05,130 open interest is declined aggressively over 100 contracts. The commercials show a lessening of shorts, with the red line going higher. At the same time we are
112 00:22:05,130 --> 00:22:06,450 oversold sentiment wise.
113 00:22:12,030 --> 00:22:22,890 Now we're gonna start going in to see if there's justification for the dollar index confirming gold should go higher. If you see the midpoint of December
114 00:22:22,890 --> 00:22:38,880 going into January, gold was failing to make lower lows at a major support level for gold, and we'll look at that 1142 level and the dollar index shows a
115 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:50,520 willingness to go higher. So there's the divergence we're looking for. And we're gonna go through the commodities just a handful sampling. As we're going into
116 00:22:50,520 --> 00:23:02,100 December, November, December, January. Soybeans was able to take out short term highs. Every low was being rejected. So there was bullishness under tones in the
117 00:23:02,100 --> 00:23:14,970 commodity market for soybeans. November December, you can see that the high grade Copper has been bullish as well. It's not been wanting to go lower crude
118 00:23:14,970 --> 00:23:25,950 oil made a higher low going into December. And it was easily taking out short term highs. Rejecting the short term low meat in December, I'm sorry, November.
119 00:23:28,290 --> 00:23:39,510 And live cattle was failing to make lower lows easily taking out short term highs. So commodities as a whole, they were bullish. And we're gonna look at the
120 00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:53,640 1142 level, which is the high noted on this monthly candle on the gold market. And you can see that's the bullet or block the last down candle right before the
121 00:23:53,670 --> 00:24:13,110 move in November of 2015. rather large displacement going into 2016 Price trades all the way up into 1370 or so. And we refined our objective should we get long,
122 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:33,990 we're going to look for that 1250 level noted off of the weekly October 17 2016 candle and notice we have an old low back here as well. We're going to be
123 00:24:33,990 --> 00:24:49,440 referencing the 1200 level for gold seen by May 1 2016 or maize candle. Let's just say it that way. Okay, so we have the 1200 level noted here. I want you to
124 00:24:49,440 --> 00:25:00,270 take a look at how price reacted there. We had basically the midway point of the price swing from the 1142 level now we're not looking at 1130 because he Never
125 00:25:00,270 --> 00:25:09,780 get the actual low. So don't think that you're ever going to do that, we're going to look at the monthly level or block at 111 42. So one level 42 is our
126 00:25:09,780 --> 00:25:22,530 objective or support level. And the range projection up is around 1255 to 1260. midway point is that 1200 level
127 00:25:28,590 --> 00:25:43,110 measuring the range from the 1140 to level off of that monthly order block the PD array and up to the weekly PD array, the premium of 1262 or 55, and a
128 00:25:43,110 --> 00:25:59,820 discount of 1142 to 1150. Buying down at 1145 to 1150 levels, projecting that range up and measuring that we can get an equilibrium price point of 1200. Also
129 00:25:59,820 --> 00:26:10,110 note that, from the equilibrium price point, there was only one real significant stop run, and it happened after the equilibrium price point had been breached to
130 00:26:10,110 --> 00:26:20,010 the upside. This is when you end up expecting a stop run on your trade. So it's important that you don't trail your stop loss up aggressively yet to know your
131 00:26:20,010 --> 00:26:33,570 range 1285 1260. So we measure that in advance. So that gives us all the levels to start looking for a mapping out where each quadrant of the swing would be, we
132 00:26:33,570 --> 00:26:46,110 know equilibrium is at 1200. So between 12 111 45 or 1142, if you want to use the actual order block on a monthly chart, that range divided in half would give
133 00:26:46,110 --> 00:26:53,850 you a new equilibrium price point. And you can break that down and you actually start seeing the smaller price swings in the larger price swing because price is
134 00:26:53,850 --> 00:27:07,680 fractal. This is the intended trade objective the full range, the equilibrium price point, when it's traded through when the upside expect and anticipate a
135 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:20,250 stop run to take out the sell stocks below the marketplace. Then, the second leg of the price action going to the final objective to 55 to 60. That's usually not
136 00:27:20,250 --> 00:27:33,270 going to see another stock run until it gets to last quarter or last third of the overall price move. From the midway point or the equilibrium, once that stop
137 00:27:33,270 --> 00:27:49,170 rung was hit. And all the sell stocks were taken out below the 1195 to 1190 level. When price came down and hit that midway point around the 1183 level, it
138 00:27:49,170 --> 00:28:01,260 also came down into an order block. Last down candle right for the move around the 1175 to 1180 price level, which causes that low. Now we have a daily PD
139 00:28:01,260 --> 00:28:14,130 array at that order block. We can measure this price swing here and start doing projections. So you take your Fibonacci pull it from the high down to the low
140 00:28:14,460 --> 00:28:30,060 and use your extensions 127 and 162. By having these levels on your chart, you arrive at 1260 which is at the confluence of Fibonacci and weekly PD arrays and
141 00:28:30,060 --> 00:28:44,700 monthly PD arrays. So it's this swing here you measure for swing projections. Notice also that this is the final portion of the range. So the second portion
142 00:28:45,030 --> 00:28:54,690 should only see another stop run after the highest taking out that's formed at the midway point of the overall price swing. So in other words at the high this
143 00:28:54,690 --> 00:29:05,790 price swing that's been noted here, around the 1220 level. Once that high is taken out, you won't see another stop run on the lows until we trade through
144 00:29:05,790 --> 00:29:15,450 that level. So then we're just going to be a stop run after midway point is breached. Usually come back in knockout the scared bulls that don't want to have
145 00:29:15,450 --> 00:29:24,450 any open risk, then price trades through the equilibrium price point again, and it makes no short term high when it comes back down. It will try to retest the
146 00:29:24,450 --> 00:29:34,290 Midway or equilibrium high. In that retracement many times you're gonna see the stock run that's usually the last one. And you can see that happening around
147 00:29:34,290 --> 00:29:47,880 that 1220 level. Then price rallies away. We call the 1220 to 1218 1217 level as a buys a swing trade. It's moved from basically 1220 All of that to 1260s.
148 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,060 That's $4,000 per contract for silver
149 00:29:56,910 --> 00:30:07,290 and you can see here measuring that overall price Again, you can see the big swings in the grades at which have a retraced and breaking your overall price
150 00:30:07,290 --> 00:30:17,610 swing even on the second portion in a smaller quadrant. So you can see how fractals occur inside of the second portion of that swing. So what makes this
151 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:29,610 the million dollar trade setup, the fact that we have a system by going through the overall market, breaking it down systematically looking for conditions, if
152 00:30:29,610 --> 00:30:39,810 the conditions are there, we're given the permission to go to the next stage of analysis. If we do not get it, we have to sit on our hands and wait. Once we get
153 00:30:39,810 --> 00:30:49,530 it, we know we can go into the marketplace and trade accordingly. We know when we're going to take a stoploss and move it higher. We know when we're going to
154 00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:56,520 leave it alone, we know when we're going to buy on a stop or when we're going to buy on a limit, we know we're going to sell on a stop, I'm going to sell in the
155 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:04,740 limit. There's conditions there. Now I know some of you, and it's going to be the ones that don't want to do the work and don't really want to pay attention.
156 00:31:04,740 --> 00:31:12,330 And you just want to give me a system where I can plug into my chart, and it's gonna pop up something. That's not how this is, folks, it requires you to put
157 00:31:12,330 --> 00:31:23,670 some work into it. And that means while I'm talking these notations that I'm giving you in audio commentary, you should be adding them to these charts. So in
158 00:31:23,670 --> 00:31:32,730 your study notes, it's not just my notes that you're looking for, it's you're adding your eureka moments or your questions about certain things, you add them
159 00:31:32,730 --> 00:31:40,380 as plenty of open space on these charts for that very reason. Otherwise, I would zoom in really tight and you wouldn't have much room at all. I want you to use
160 00:31:40,380 --> 00:31:50,940 the time and study notes, to make your own notes. Draw references to things that you didn't think about or maybe you've learned the first time in this teaching
161 00:31:51,270 --> 00:32:01,680 about something in regards to the stop loss in regards to you know, when are you buying on a stock and when are you selling on a limit, we got specific
162 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:11,310 conditions, we know which PD array we look for in terms of buying a stock and selling on a limit all those their conditions. Now you know when to do it, what
163 00:32:11,310 --> 00:32:19,260 price level you're gonna look for. We're not looking at zones, we're looking at specific price levels, we're looking at anticipating when the swing is going to
164 00:32:19,260 --> 00:32:28,500 make a overall price move, we can divide that in half. Once it hits the halfway point, we would anticipate a stock run or retracement or a bounce in a bear
165 00:32:28,500 --> 00:32:38,040 market. Once that rates hit, the stops are gone. We're gonna look for expansion going towards our larger objective. Once that equilibrium price point is taken
166 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:46,200 out, we will look for another retracement. And then inside that we will anticipate the second stop run. After that generally there isn't another sop run
167 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:57,150 at all. It just makes it run quickly to the objective on the upside. So we can see that second stop run in here. Note it's Haftar the midway point is breached
168 00:32:57,420 --> 00:33:08,580 and it's traded higher and it comes back as a retracement. Then finally that last portion is a quick reach for that 1260 level. I promise you if you go
169 00:33:08,580 --> 00:33:19,830 through this, and you take to consideration of going through every single detail and applying it to your charts and looking at examples. You'll see that what I'm
170 00:33:19,830 --> 00:33:30,900 explaining here ferrets out the really solid swings. Also note that it's also limiting your trades to only those that are seasonally poised to move higher or
171 00:33:30,900 --> 00:33:40,230 lower. So it reduces the number of potential setups. So you can't over trade. It's literally impossible over trade. You know now because of the content in
172 00:33:40,230 --> 00:33:43,260 January, what the seasonal tendencies are that I like to trade.
173 00:33:44,850 --> 00:33:53,820 There's nothing apart from them that I want to trade as a swing trade. Majority of my trades are, are short term in day trades. That's why I excel there,
174 00:33:53,910 --> 00:34:01,650 because most of my trades are there. So if you keep doing a lot of the same thing, by experience, you get good at swing trades. Again, the only set up
175 00:34:01,650 --> 00:34:12,000 around four to six weeks. I can't wait four to six weeks to take a trade, I have to be doing something more frequent than that. So if you can't day trade or
176 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:20,760 short term trade, this is the my opinion the million dollar answer to that question, what should you be doing? You have all the conditions in this
177 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:30,480 marketplace. Now. I've given you the rules. It's clear cut. It's literally you can make a flowchart of your own or checklist if you will. But the way I just
178 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:38,550 did it here is exactly what I do. And you've watched me do it without going through this whole mechanics of it all. That's the process I went through to
179 00:34:38,550 --> 00:34:48,090 come to conclusion that gold was going to go higher and silver was going to go higher. All these things line up. But it's not going to be any benefit to you.
180 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:55,050 Right you just watching the video one time and then waiting to get to the next thing like there's going to be some secret little plug and play. It pops up on
181 00:34:55,050 --> 00:35:02,670 your chart. You have to think about some things you have to make decisions each stage of your analysis You have to question, is there something for me to do
182 00:35:02,670 --> 00:35:09,960 right now, if there isn't, it doesn't mean forget the whole idea, it just means you have to wait for new information. And that's the hardest part, that's where
183 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:17,550 patients has to kick in. Either you're going to eat, become patient, or you're going to remain impatient. And you're not going to be part of the mentorship,
184 00:35:17,580 --> 00:35:24,300 you're not going to be a successful trader, you're just going to chase something else, or you'll forget trading altogether. The ones that are solid, the ones
185 00:35:24,300 --> 00:35:34,980 that are convicted, about becoming successful in trading, they know now they have rule based ideas for Swing Trading, you know that you got to do certain
186 00:35:34,980 --> 00:35:44,760 things to get to the next stage of analysis. Nothing in here is difficult. Nothing in here is highly technical, but it is a procedure that you go through,
187 00:35:44,910 --> 00:35:55,020 that leads you to the outcome you're looking for. Don't take my word for it, use the framework and go back over, say the last two years and see if those ideas
188 00:35:55,020 --> 00:36:08,340 aren't ferreting out all the solid swing trades, both long and short. So it's been a pleasure for me to share this swing trading model of mine. And I pray
189 00:36:08,340 --> 00:36:18,000 that you do not make this stuff coming out. So again, if if this is your last month with us, please be respectful. And just know that you have something
190 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:29,280 that's a really, really strong analysis concept. It ferrets out amazing swing trades you've seen it has been used to outline gold market. This was the way I
191 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:37,740 did it. Okay, this is how I did it. So if I tell you this, how I do it, just know that when we go forward and we break the markets down, because we've
192 00:36:37,740 --> 00:36:45,660 completed the swing trading model now, we will be able to go through the marketplace and actually do the real time analysis to ferret out any new short
193 00:36:45,660 --> 00:36:56,850 term swing trades going forward as we go into the new content for short term trading in March. So the concepts are this, as we learn all the rules about each
194 00:36:56,850 --> 00:37:07,470 individual discipline, the next month, we can start going in and using it all. Now we have all the framework for position trading and swing trading. We will be
195 00:37:07,470 --> 00:37:16,800 learning short term trading. While we're going through the short term trading in March, we will be continuously looking for swing trade ideas and potentially
196 00:37:16,830 --> 00:37:26,460 long term position trading ideas. When we finished March, and short term trading is done. We will be going into day trading. In April, while we're going through
197 00:37:26,460 --> 00:37:36,780 April, we will have all the information about short term trading in April, we will be absolutely trading one shot one kills every single week. Okay, so that
198 00:37:36,780 --> 00:37:46,470 way, you know what we're doing, how the context of information is, is utilized, and all these things, how they come together. That's the framework. That's the
199 00:37:46,470 --> 00:37:57,180 structure. When we're done learning day trading in April. In May, we'll be day trading every single day while we learn scalping. And then we'll be going into
200 00:37:57,180 --> 00:38:06,240 other content later in mentorship. So hopefully this has been insightful to you guys. I can't wait to get your feedback on what you think about the swing
201 00:38:06,240 --> 00:38:15,000 trading model. I told you it's not complicated at all, but it requires you to think and you have to go through some of the content that you've already
202 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:23,370 digested already. And you have to know some things. If you don't know what s&p divergence is. You got to do some study on that. And all that stuff is in the
203 00:38:23,370 --> 00:38:26,940 free tutorials. Till next time, I wish good luck and good trading