49-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - How To Use Bearish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-09-17 07:51
1 00:00:13,139 --> 00:00:25,259 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is lesson 4.2. Continuing our teaching on applying seasonal tendencies to higher timeframe analysis came from me
2 00:00:25,259 --> 00:00:40,439 highlighting our topic of seasonals with a deeper focus on bear seasonals in higher timeframe analysis. And our market of study for this teaching is going to
3 00:00:40,439 --> 00:00:56,489 be the New Zealand dollar, or kiwi. Okay, and when we looked at lesson 4.1, when we looked at the Canadian dollar, and we noticed that while the seasonal
4 00:00:56,489 --> 00:01:04,919 tendencies that I'm sharing here, there are seasonal tendencies with the utilization of the futures market. So since it's the futures market, and we're
5 00:01:04,949 --> 00:01:15,239 using the seasonal tendency, it's important to understand that the seasonal tendency may if it's bullish for the seasonal tendency chart for a particular
6 00:01:15,239 --> 00:01:26,069 time of the year, that may or may not be bullish for a particular pair, like for instance, in 4.1 Lesson, we use that US CAD pair. And since its seasonal
7 00:01:26,069 --> 00:01:38,669 tendency is on the Canadian dollar, we are looking at a time when the Canadian dollar seasonal tendency for the futures contract would be bullish in our
8 00:01:38,669 --> 00:01:49,709 seasonal tendency, but would be bearish in the US CAD pair, because it would be inverted. That would be a little bit of a sticking point for someone that's just
9 00:01:49,709 --> 00:01:59,309 rushing through this lesson. But we're going to talk about a currency this time where it's going to move, basically in tandem with what you expect to see in the
10 00:01:59,309 --> 00:02:08,729 seasonal tendency chart. We're looking at the kiwi, or the New Zealand dollar, which is a calm doll, commodity currency. That means the currency is traded as a
11 00:02:08,729 --> 00:02:16,979 futures market. This teaching also is going to go a little bit deeper in the understanding of seasonal tenants and how I employ them. I've been able to call
12 00:02:16,979 --> 00:02:25,289 pretty significant price swings in the marketplace using higher timeframe charts, and many of them YouTube have witnessed that happen. Some of you seen it
13 00:02:25,289 --> 00:02:37,769 in this mentorship, all of it comes by way of the things I'm teaching in these two lessons here 4.1 4.2. The way we're going to approach the seasonal
14 00:02:37,769 --> 00:02:49,649 tendencies in this teaching is going to be applying bear seasonals. But we're also going to segue into how this helps us get in sync with hopefully, a
15 00:02:49,649 --> 00:02:57,239 quarterly shift in the marketplace, which is the goal of position trading or long term trading, as I understand it and teach it powerful moves that occur on
16 00:02:57,239 --> 00:03:09,779 these higher timeframe charts. monthly, weekly and daily, there in the hundreds of pips for foreign exchange. So it behooves you to look at this marketplace,
17 00:03:10,109 --> 00:03:17,219 when these higher timeframe charts, because even regardless of what type of trade you're going to be. And if you can use seasonal tendencies like a roadmap,
18 00:03:18,389 --> 00:03:29,129 it's literally like knowing the most probable direction, certain times of the year for certain currencies or markets. Because it's not limited to just foreign
19 00:03:29,129 --> 00:03:36,149 exchange or currencies, Islam, it's limited and nothing, really, I mean, everything has a seasonal tendency, but you have to study it and go through a
20 00:03:36,149 --> 00:03:47,699 long process of compiling all that data to get to the outcome that would highlight a seasonal tendency where it rests most predominantly. If you're
21 00:03:47,699 --> 00:03:57,419 looking at this chart here, obviously, you can see that there are certain points in where price, generally on the blue line and on the red line, okay, and it's
22 00:03:57,419 --> 00:04:09,929 comparing a long period blue line of time and a shorter period of data. And when both of them move in tandem direction, in other words, they all are basically
23 00:04:09,929 --> 00:04:20,069 moving in the same direction up or down at any given particular time. That highlights a high probability seasonal tendency. Now, when it gets real muddy
24 00:04:20,069 --> 00:04:28,259 and it's choppy back and forth, then it makes it a little bit less likely there's a seasonal tendency there. But just quickly going over this chart here.
25 00:04:29,189 --> 00:04:39,119 It should be obvious to you what time of year there is a significant decline in price expected and when should there be a significant increase in price for the
26 00:04:39,119 --> 00:04:45,029 Kiwi dollar? Let's zoom in and take a closer look and we'll break this down into real specifics.
27 00:04:49,410 --> 00:04:59,670 Okay, we have that same chart now just zoomed in. And I want to highlight a few things going into this. These seasonal tendencies what we're trying to aim at
28 00:05:00,450 --> 00:05:08,970 where the conditions lie that would set up a quarterly shift and onwards a move that may take two to three months to unfold. We're using these higher timeframe
29 00:05:08,970 --> 00:05:22,620 charts, with the attempt to hone in on an area where we can capture several 100 pips in a long term position trade, or looking for the ideas to get us in sync
30 00:05:22,620 --> 00:05:31,140 with the institutional mindset where the direction of the market should go on these higher timeframe charts. Since it's the smart money entities that move
31 00:05:31,140 --> 00:05:39,090 price on these higher timeframe charts, we know there's a high probability if there's a certain time of year or a tendency for the market to rally or decline.
32 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:50,220 And it's shown itself over a large sample size of data. The blue line in the key here represents 19 years worth of data. The red line represents 15 years worth
33 00:05:50,220 --> 00:06:01,410 of data. And the only thing it's doing is contrasting for 15 years worth of data versus 19 years worth of data, the seasonal tendencies pretty much are locked in
34 00:06:01,410 --> 00:06:10,410 tandem, you can see pretty much it's the same scenario all the time. Because it's traded in March contracts, June contracts, September contracts and December
35 00:06:10,410 --> 00:06:18,120 contracts. They are the futures contract delivery months. In other words, these are the months that you would be buying or selling, you're gonna be trading. As
36 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:29,130 you can see, the June contract has the strongest tendency to rally and decline all in that same contract month, beginning first trading day. And last trading
37 00:06:29,130 --> 00:06:40,260 day before the contract would expire. Then December's contract has a very strong tendency to rally late in the year. And understanding that it's pretty obvious
38 00:06:40,260 --> 00:06:46,740 that if you're going to be trading the key we you will be focusing on the June contract and the December contract. That's the powerful nature of understanding
39 00:06:47,010 --> 00:06:59,220 these seasonal tendencies. That doesn't mean that the March contract won't see specific price action that sets up moves that we see in the June and December
40 00:06:59,220 --> 00:07:08,910 contract, or that we won't see things in the September contract that would lead into December, contract month, following as we see here in a seasonal tendency.
41 00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:19,350 Again, they're not panacea is they're not be all end all. But they're roadmaps as to what price has done in the past, historically, year after year, by
42 00:07:19,350 --> 00:07:27,960 compiling the data, we can see that these contract delivery months do this type of thing over a large sample size of data. Will it happen every single year?
43 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:29,970 Absolutely not. In fact, I
44 00:07:29,970 --> 00:07:38,610 went back all the way to 2007. And we're going to look at every single year from 2007 to now. And we're going to see what influence the seasonal tendency has had
45 00:07:38,610 --> 00:07:47,460 and how it helped us or would have helped us say it that way, we can go back in time and look at how hypothetically knowing this information back then we could
46 00:07:47,460 --> 00:07:55,770 have used it to get in sync with a quarterly shift or it could have been just a unique trade setup by itself. Since we're focusing primarily on bearish
47 00:07:55,770 --> 00:08:06,420 conditions, we're gonna be looking for areas at which the market is most likely to see a significant drop in price. Now we can go back in time and look at the
48 00:08:06,450 --> 00:08:16,080 years like we're going to now and use it to build our confidence in the fact that the seasonal tendencies do in fact hold up over a long period of time. Now
49 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:26,670 again, we're looking at about nine years or so worth of seasonal tendency price study in the New Zealand dollar futures contract. Now, this is not to say that,
50 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:36,600 you're going to see the exact same type of move, dollar for dollar per pip in foreign exchange market, but by far and large, they're going to be moved moving
51 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:49,560 in the same direction generally. So have that as a point of reference when we go over this because I'm not trying to force a perfect pit to point ratio of
52 00:08:49,650 --> 00:08:56,820 movement in both the futures in the foreign exchange market, there's going to be like this huge difference between the two. But by far and large, you're gonna
53 00:08:56,820 --> 00:09:06,270 see that they generally move in the same direction. So if we're going to look at this with a sober mind and understand that yes, there are opportunities to be a
54 00:09:06,270 --> 00:09:14,430 seller and QA and there's high probability conditions certain times of the year where it it positions itself for an opportunity to sell off with a great deal of
55 00:09:14,790 --> 00:09:27,180 tendency to do so seasonally and historically. But we're going to focus on how we can use these bearish ideas to get us in sync with a long term bullish
56 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:33,780 quarterly shift. Now you're probably saying well wait a minute. You're coloring outside the lines you were supposed to be talking about bearish seasonal
57 00:09:33,780 --> 00:09:44,310 tendencies? Yes. The teaching is really how to use bearish seasonal tendencies not just myopically. And only focus on just being a short seller. We got to be
58 00:09:44,310 --> 00:09:52,710 able to understand that that short selling opportunity may be leading us to a quarterly move on these higher timeframe charts. So a decline while could be
59 00:09:52,710 --> 00:10:01,290 traded. You have to be mindful that there's certain times of the year when the kiwi has a predisposed nature to go higher. So let's take a look at a few
60 00:10:01,290 --> 00:10:13,020 examples in here. There's obviously this one I like is mid February to mid March, really significant time point where you can see there's a really nice
61 00:10:13,020 --> 00:10:20,520 movement between the red and the blue line. That means the 19 year seasonal tendency and the 15 year seasonal tendency, and again, I want to remind you that
62 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:31,470 it's taking 19 years worth of price action, year after year, what did these months deliver in terms of price. And you can see here, the mid February to mid
63 00:10:31,470 --> 00:10:46,230 March time period, both the red and the blue lines. And again, I'll remind you here that the 19 year is the blue, and the 15 year is the red. And what it is,
64 00:10:46,260 --> 00:10:58,500 is a compiling of 19 years worth of data showing the historical movement of the march delivery contract, and the June contract, the September contract and the
65 00:10:58,500 --> 00:11:11,700 December contract. And by showing a historical record, and compiling the data, the overall price direction generally is from mid February down to mid March,
66 00:11:12,150 --> 00:11:21,180 there's a strong tendency for the Kiwi dollar to decline. And you can see it very clearly in both the contrasting 19 years worth of data and 15 years worth
67 00:11:21,180 --> 00:11:30,630 of data. So if it was the shift in and out between the two, then it's most likely probably not a good time to be a buyer or seller. But when they both move
68 00:11:30,630 --> 00:11:41,100 in the same direction, and it's a sizable price swing as we can see here in the shaded area. It's in my opinion that it's a pretty good chance that we'll see a
69 00:11:41,100 --> 00:11:52,200 decline there. The second one it'd be noteworthy of is that notice that if we dropped down into mid March and in April, the market tends to have a significant
70 00:11:52,200 --> 00:12:04,470 rally at that time. And it rallies up to about May. And both the 19 and 15 year seasonal tendency compilation shows that it does in fact make a high in May and
71 00:12:04,470 --> 00:12:05,760 then it sells off again
72 00:12:07,740 --> 00:12:19,080 giving us another bearish seasonal tendency. And then we have an area where we have consolidation between around the June month going into July. But it makes
73 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:29,520 another seasonal low around June and July, and it bounces bullishly. And then it sells off again around mid August down into October. But look what happens in
74 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:42,060 September and October. It generally makes a significant point of bullishness and puts the large degree of buying in your scope as far as a trader, you look at
75 00:12:42,090 --> 00:12:53,910 buying the Kiwi around that September October time period. Now, when we use seasonal tendencies, the way we want to use them are limited only to what the
76 00:12:53,910 --> 00:13:05,400 current market conditions are. We do not go into our charts forcing the seasonal tendency, for instance, we're not forcing the idea that kiwi has to make it high
77 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:13,140 or top in May, therefore we're going to sell in May in this hole onto it forever, and then wait for it to you'd be June July in this collect our money.
78 00:13:13,140 --> 00:13:21,750 That's not what we're saying here. But what I want you to focus on is that if this seasonal tendency is in fact true, and I believe it shows validity here.
79 00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:31,860 The idea is, is there something technically in price that would support that seasonal tendency? Are we in a bearish market? Did we rally up into a bearish
80 00:13:31,860 --> 00:13:40,440 order block? Do we run an old high? Do we see a market structure break? Have we in fact been moving up for the last two or three months? And then are we likely
81 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:48,690 to you know sell off because of an over ball premium market and then maybe we would anticipate seeing some breakdown in the marketplace. And then we can take
82 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:57,210 a short or position ourselves for a bearish move lower. So it's a matter of lining up what the current market conditions are. It's not just take this thing,
83 00:13:57,210 --> 00:14:06,510 apply it to the marketplace and you're gonna get rich. It's taking these ideas when there are strong tendency for the market to move one side or the other at
84 00:14:06,510 --> 00:14:13,200 any particular time of the year. As you can see across this chart, there are several other opportunities you can use. You don't have to be a long term
85 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:22,560 position trader, which is what I'm focusing on here using the bearish moves. Okay, that's seen in mid February to mid March. And then you have another move
86 00:14:22,860 --> 00:14:33,840 in May. That takes you down into June July. So there's other opportunities you can use. You can see that there's a typical sell off in the first week or so of
87 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:44,820 January that goes down into February. There's another sell off that takes place around mid June down into this first or second week of July. Both lines blue and
88 00:14:44,850 --> 00:14:52,110 red are in agreement with that. And then you see another sell off that takes place around mid August down into the September October time period making it a
89 00:14:52,110 --> 00:15:02,670 low but there is a small short term little mood that drops off mid September down into October. That's The one that generally sets up a really strong buying
90 00:15:02,670 --> 00:15:11,220 opportunity. So we're going to be at quarterly shift trader, if we are going to trade these seasonal tendencies, and we are shorter in that time period, just be
91 00:15:11,220 --> 00:15:19,890 mindful that around September October generally makes a very strong tendency for the Kiwi to rally. But now let's go back and have a contrasting view as well,
92 00:15:19,890 --> 00:15:28,380 since we're focusing on bearish seasonal tendencies. And we're using them in the higher timeframe analysis, we can take all of these bearish ideas and trade them
93 00:15:28,530 --> 00:15:36,570 respectively. Or we can go into the marketplace and say, Okay, I'm going to anticipate these bearish seasonal tendencies not trade them, I'm going to
94 00:15:36,570 --> 00:15:47,610 anticipate them, showing me the signs that the market is in fact dropping down into the quarterly bullish scenarios that I could be a buyer. So we can use
95 00:15:47,610 --> 00:15:57,000 bearish seasonal tendencies to trade with or we can use them as guides to lead us to the next trading opportunity, that would be a quarterly shift, this
96 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:06,780 teaching is going to show you both, okay, we're gonna go from 2007 all of that to 2016. But if you're gonna be a bullish trader on keybie, and we're gonna be
97 00:16:06,780 --> 00:16:16,260 looking for bullish quarterly shifts, they occur in March to April time period, that's only making a low. Okay, make a note of this, because when we go through
98 00:16:16,260 --> 00:16:26,310 each year, I want you to keep these reference points in mind, we are focusing on sell offs between mid February to mid March. And we're focusing on sell offs
99 00:16:26,310 --> 00:16:38,460 around May going into June, and July. But primarily, we're looking at how these moves could set up bullish conditions for quarterly shifts. And the first one
100 00:16:38,460 --> 00:16:51,090 we're watching is it sets up a move between March and April for quarterly low. The next one is June, July low that you could expect a seasonal low to form for
101 00:16:51,090 --> 00:16:59,160 that quarter to be a buyer. And then the other one is September to October, giving us a strong tendency to be a buyer. Okay, so now think about this for a
102 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:08,760 minute. I just outlined the general roadmap on what Kiwi dollar does on a 12 month cycle.
103 00:17:10,650 --> 00:17:20,040 Now, if that didn't for you, you're not paying attention. Now you probably didn't get it and you didn't you didn't register if you're a new trader
104 00:17:20,100 --> 00:17:31,980 traveling right over your head. But think about what we've just did. We've outlined the macro view on what Kiwi dollar does generally over a course of 12
105 00:17:31,980 --> 00:17:41,760 months, there's seasonal tendencies that shift in and out of the marketplace. And depending on what the market conditions are for that particular time or that
106 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:52,680 year, one seasonal tendency is going to be favored over the other. If we're in a bullish market. Obviously, the March April, June, July and September, October
107 00:17:52,680 --> 00:18:01,890 time periods are going to be phenomenal buying opportunities. If we're in a bearish market, that means mid February to mid March is going to be amazing sell
108 00:18:01,890 --> 00:18:12,450 off, and may is going to be an amazing sell off. And you have August can create a nice sell off as well lead me down to the fall loose. There's also another
109 00:18:12,450 --> 00:18:20,520 long in here that I don't have an arrow to highlight. But it's that last week of November going into the first week of December, that's a nice little buying
110 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:28,590 opportunity as well. So in your notes as we go through these slides, okay, you can obviously go after you watch the video and go back and look at it as well.
111 00:18:29,070 --> 00:18:38,220 But as we go through each year, just be mindful that March, April, June, July, September, October are really strong buying opportunities when it's bullish.
112 00:18:38,970 --> 00:18:48,930 When it's not bullish, we can focus primarily on being a seller look for selling scenarios around the February to March time period and may into June for sell
113 00:18:48,930 --> 00:18:58,320 offs and an August into September, giving us weak points to sell on. So let's go into our first year and start breaking this down give it some real examples, see
114 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:11,310 if it really does appear in the charts. Okay, you can see here, this is 2007. And what I'm showing is December from the previous year 2006 all the way up to
115 00:19:11,850 --> 00:19:23,550 the January 1 of the following year. So we're getting the entire year shown in every slide that we show. This is 2000 sevens price chart. And here we have mid
116 00:19:23,550 --> 00:19:35,040 February into March that weakness that we expect to see a bearish scenario. Okay, and also notice also that we have a small little decline here as well in
117 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:45,630 May, both seasonal tendencies while in contrast to the larger moves. So there's several 100 pips on these declines here. But now notice also these sell offs
118 00:19:45,630 --> 00:19:55,620 that we expected bearishness in the marketplace. They set up what opportunities we remember we have that March April time period for bullish scenarios or
119 00:19:55,890 --> 00:20:10,770 expected bullish scenarios for tendencies to go higher. June July. And September October. Do you not see those occurring here, we have the March April time
120 00:20:10,770 --> 00:20:22,260 period, creating the very low end, look at the move up from there. It's several 100 pips, then we have the May June decline. But June starts off that rally,
121 00:20:22,590 --> 00:20:33,000 that sends us all the way up to the 81. Big figure, huge move, then we have another opportunity where the market dips down and trades off into the September
122 00:20:33,660 --> 00:20:42,690 time period where we seen that September October seasonal tendency to rally. So while we're focusing on the bears, seasonal tendencies, the other seasonal
123 00:20:42,690 --> 00:20:51,000 tendencies that we've went through the beginning of this teaching, when we're looking at the actual seasonal tendency chart, all of the seasonal tendencies
124 00:20:51,030 --> 00:21:01,140 are going to have some measure of influence. Now, again, keeping in mind what the current market conditions are at that particular year. It's going to be
125 00:21:01,140 --> 00:21:09,090 helpful for you in that regard. Because, again, we're not trying to form fit just a seasonal tendency in price. We're looking for clues to justify why that
126 00:21:09,090 --> 00:21:18,210 scenario would be more inclined to unfold and the other in other words, is it better to be a buyer on the bullish seasonal tendency, or better to be a seller
127 00:21:18,210 --> 00:21:27,000 on the bearish seasonal tendency. And years, sometimes we'll work in concert with another where the bearish move will lead into the bullish move and the
128 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:36,570 bullish move will lead into the bearish move. That's perfect market symmetry that rarely exists. But sometimes in my 23 plus years doing it. I've seen it a
129 00:21:36,570 --> 00:21:50,070 few times where it's been astonishing. But as we go to our next year in Kiwi here's 2008 for the kiwi. And obviously everybody remembers what happened in
130 00:21:50,070 --> 00:21:50,820 2008.
131 00:21:51,839 --> 00:22:04,079 The market imploded, we had the financial meltdown. And we have mid March, I'm sorry, mid February to mid March, creating the actual high in the kiwi. And then
132 00:22:04,079 --> 00:22:15,209 we had the May, creating another high here where we sold off as well. And notice because we are all completely all bearish on all foreign currencies. The Kiwi
133 00:22:15,209 --> 00:22:23,189 was no exception here, it just kept on falling the rest of the year. So you have to also keep that in mind too, there's going to be larger, big picture, macro
134 00:22:23,189 --> 00:22:30,059 events that are going to take precedence over whatever short term quarterly effect that you may be expecting. Even if it's a seasonal tendency that holds up
135 00:22:30,059 --> 00:22:42,839 for a long period of time, you're going to have these wildcard scenarios where it just isn't going to pan out regardless of what you would expect which 2009
136 00:22:43,199 --> 00:22:57,899 and we can see the sell off between mid February going into March. So that decline in there was 600 pips. And we see also during the May period, we did not
137 00:22:57,899 --> 00:23:08,009 get any decline at all on the bear side. But in contrast, keeping in mind how we're using these bear seasonal tendencies, the one that dropped down in
138 00:23:08,009 --> 00:23:19,199 February into March leads us into the March April bullish scenario. And it was a very strong buying opportunity there. And then we had the month of June July we
139 00:23:19,199 --> 00:23:37,049 had a consolidation in July sent this higher going into the late fall. October highs September and October, just a continuation 2010 You can see here for the
140 00:23:37,049 --> 00:23:50,849 kiwi. We had basically a flat market in mid February to March nothing bullish nothing bearish but we had our may decline. And look how many pips this thing
141 00:23:50,849 --> 00:24:06,539 moves. This thing moves about 700 pips as a decline in the month of May. But again, that may decline set up the June July bullish seasonal tendency that took
142 00:24:06,539 --> 00:24:18,299 off and sent price higher. And we also see there was a scenario for the bearish August to October time period August we had a little decline which had a small
143 00:24:18,299 --> 00:24:26,249 seasonal tendency to be bearish if you go back and look at the slide. And all it did was it retraced back down into a bearish candle which is a bullish order
144 00:24:26,249 --> 00:24:37,769 block in an uptrend and it rallied off that 70 big figure moving all the way up to 7950 cents 950 points, or pips that it moved off of just retracing into an
145 00:24:37,769 --> 00:24:48,959 area which institutional order flow would give us bullishness. And then we had the September October time period give us that last little leg price higher from
146 00:24:48,959 --> 00:25:06,389 that 7400 to the 7950 level, so 550 pips there as well, using the seasonal tendencies as a as a roadmap came to see 2011 Here. See we are decline mid
147 00:25:06,389 --> 00:25:15,329 February going into mid March, we had a nice decline there. But that leads us to what the bullish March April seasonal tendency nails it look at the rally off of
148 00:25:15,329 --> 00:25:26,399 that huge extrapolated move from that time period. And then we have a small little decline from our May time period where we expect bearishness and that's
149 00:25:26,759 --> 00:25:40,019 about 350 pips just in made on a decline, but finds us trading back down into the January highs. So old resistance turned support there, the market creates
150 00:25:40,019 --> 00:25:52,349 that retracement down in may just to set up another leg higher. June July gives us a nice seasonal low off of a previous down candle which is a bullish order
151 00:25:52,349 --> 00:26:04,229 block around that at big figure and then it rallies all the way up to 80 100 to 800 pips using the seasonal tendency where we saw a decline in May. And then it
152 00:26:04,229 --> 00:26:16,409 rallied away and created a longer term price move. Very significant price moves higher. And in September October gave us a swing from the 7500 to the 8200 so
153 00:26:16,439 --> 00:26:17,669 it's 700 pips there
154 00:26:22,590 --> 00:26:36,210 okay 2012 See, we had our decline mid February to mid March, several 100 pips decline, about 400 or so on the downside, and then in May, we had a very
155 00:26:36,210 --> 00:26:51,750 significant sell off and price mood, almost 100 pips on the downside in the month of May. And that gives us that June low seasonally where we saw
156 00:26:51,750 --> 00:27:02,490 bullishness expected and I think took off from June lows from 7500. All the way up to 80 450. So that's a massive move.
157 00:27:07,500 --> 00:27:23,520 2013 Okay, we see our decline here mid February to mid March, several 100 pips as well, and then a nother decline in May, which leads us to our bullish june
158 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:36,780 july low. And it rallies away from that. And in 2014, we don't get any thing bearish at all between February and March, Mark was in consolidation and rally
159 00:27:36,810 --> 00:27:45,660 out of the consolidation. So it's not expected to be a bearish area there. We're looking for continuation on the upside because it's left area consolidation. And
160 00:27:45,660 --> 00:28:01,230 in May we have a little bit of a retracement that leads to June rally creating the high up at the at big figure. Then we had a sell off in mid August, which
161 00:28:01,230 --> 00:28:10,170 was the other bearish opportunity take us down into October, again, look at your seasonal tendency that first or second week of August, all the way down into
162 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:23,700 October. And you can see that seasonal tendency takes effect in this market here. Okay, on 2015. Let's see we had a little bit of a move down here in mid
163 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:34,440 February to mid March. And again, these are weekly charts to be mindful that we're not looking at your five minute charts here. And then we have our decline
164 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:46,470 in May, seasonally speaking. And June July, this cap on being weak, which led us into the next bullish scenario, which is the quarterly shift that would be
165 00:28:46,470 --> 00:28:58,440 bullish. That occurs in September October and that gives us a really nice rally from the 6250 level up to the 6850 level almost 69 So very, very handsome rally
166 00:28:58,440 --> 00:28:59,550 from that price point there.
167 00:29:05,789 --> 00:29:19,559 Finally for 2016 unchanged consolidation, nothing happening in mid February to mid March. We have our decline in May, comes down into previous bullish order
168 00:29:19,559 --> 00:29:33,479 blocks and rallies away created an alert higher high up into 7450. So it moved from that may decline into the week before June rallying away from the 67 big
169 00:29:33,479 --> 00:29:43,649 figure all the way up to almost 7500 think that you're serving rather significant price moves. As a closing note, I want you to think about how these
170 00:29:43,649 --> 00:29:57,029 ideas lead to a roadmap idea of where price should go generally speaking, and when to focus in on very significant price moves when they when do they usually
171 00:29:57,029 --> 00:30:05,519 occur. See it's one thing to say okay, I can see You want to indicate your bearish lead diverges, and it should give us a sell signal, or it should some
172 00:30:05,729 --> 00:30:16,199 suggest some consolidation in a strong uptrend, we can understand that. But it doesn't really tell us when the divergence should occur. And seasonal tendencies
173 00:30:16,199 --> 00:30:27,389 tell us a specific time element that escapes most people that don't use them. Most traders don't even have any understanding these things exist. Now, because
174 00:30:27,389 --> 00:30:36,419 you've been exposed to them with a great deal more detail, much more than we saw when I was teaching in the free tutorial area, we can see how we blend these two
175 00:30:36,419 --> 00:30:47,789 ideas, time and price with quarterly shifts. And when the seasonal tendencies come into the picture as well, there's a strong tendency for the market to react
176 00:30:47,789 --> 00:30:57,719 when a few things come into confluence, if we have a seasonal tendency to suggest bullish prices, when the markets already predisposed to go higher,
177 00:30:57,719 --> 00:31:09,119 because it's in a bullish market. And it's in a time of the day when the market should be bullish. And it's also at a time when the market is indicating that
178 00:31:09,119 --> 00:31:18,959 interest rates are supporting that bullish idea. It's also supported in the dollar index. When all these things come together, they dovetail into a
179 00:31:18,959 --> 00:31:29,189 beautiful tapestry where you're going to see a profitable outcome in your analysis. Now, as long as you stick to those types of trades, you're going to do
180 00:31:29,189 --> 00:31:37,349 very, very well, you don't need a whole lot of trades throughout the year. And notice that there's not a whole lot of overlapping going on between what we've
181 00:31:37,349 --> 00:31:49,169 shown so far, certain currency pairs have certain seasonal tendencies. Now, by far and large, they're all going to bend in the to the dollar index. And we're
182 00:31:49,169 --> 00:31:57,269 going to have a 4.3 teaching with seasonal tendencies where I'm going to show you the seasonal tendency of the dollar index. And we're actually apply that to
183 00:31:57,269 --> 00:32:05,969 other studies as well. But for now, I want you to be encouraged, right now, I don't want you to get so excited, you feel like you've won the lottery, okay,
184 00:32:05,969 --> 00:32:15,329 but the seasonal tendencies are very, very powerful. And when you use them in the right context, they lead to an analysis perspective that, again, most aren't
185 00:32:15,329 --> 00:32:25,379 going to be able to attain. Everyone looks at just price action alone. But if you look at what price has done, historically, and dare I say it hindsight, it's
186 00:32:25,379 --> 00:32:34,349 a goldmine of information, because it leads to an understanding of what should take place. And it shows that there's Yes, there is manipulation in the
187 00:32:34,349 --> 00:32:42,779 marketplace. But by far and large, these markets move by a certain script, and they repeat themselves over and over and over again. And if something comes into
188 00:32:42,779 --> 00:32:51,719 the marketplace to upset what would be otherwise a bearish time of the year, but yet it posts something bullish. For instance, look what we're seeing here, mid
189 00:32:51,719 --> 00:32:59,819 February to mid March. We're not seeing bearishness there, we're seeing consolidation in the market rallies away and falls in May, but it only falls
190 00:32:59,819 --> 00:33:10,919 down to the mid consolidation point, or around the 67. Big figure, then it creates another rally higher. If you remember, all through 2016, I was telling
191 00:33:10,919 --> 00:33:19,829 everyone that the New Zealand dollar was going higher, it was strong, relatively speaking, just like the Aussie dollar was, those two currencies were the ones
192 00:33:19,829 --> 00:33:30,479 that held up the most during 2016. When all the other pairs bearishly moves lower against the strength of the dollar. Also notice that we had that sell off
193 00:33:30,509 --> 00:33:31,529 as a short term
194 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:42,780 bearish idea in January, it actually materializes here as well. So think about if you're a day trader, if you're a short term trader, okay, you can use those
195 00:33:42,780 --> 00:33:52,830 ideas to get you in sync with long term position trades, when these higher timeframe, seasonal tendencies, you're gonna be able to blend all these things.
196 00:33:52,830 --> 00:34:00,240 By the time you're done with this mentorship, you'll be able to go in and dissect any mark on any market, you'll be able to dissect any asset class and
197 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:09,360 know right away if there's an opportunity, if there isn't an opportunity move to the sidelines. And by having a seasonal tendency in your toolbox, it'll give you
198 00:34:09,390 --> 00:34:17,640 when you should be looking for something that's really loaded in your favorite move, because seasonally and historically, these times of the year in this
199 00:34:17,700 --> 00:34:26,700 particular currency, there are times when it makes significant price moves. And if we can focus on trading on those timeframes, and those setups alone, we are
200 00:34:26,700 --> 00:34:35,250 really basically framing high probability setups. You're not going to get perfect winners, but you're going to have high probability conditions where even
201 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:44,550 if you use this as a directional bias tool, it'll help you in all facets of your trading no matter what discipline you use, swing trade, short term day trade or
202 00:34:44,550 --> 00:34:48,210 scalp. Until next lesson, I wish you good luck and good trading