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112-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 12 - Long Term Top Down Analysis

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-29 06:36
1 00:00:09,990 --> 00:00:20,820 ICT: Okay, folks, August 2017, we finally made it to the last month of the mentor ships teaching. And this is going to be teaching the ICT long term top
2 00:00:20,820 --> 00:00:29,250 down analysis, I'm going to be going over how I personally go through the monthly chart to arrive at levels that would be transposed and ideas to the
3 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:29,820 weekly chart.
4 00:00:35,490 --> 00:00:45,390 Alright, so before we begin, it's important that I remind you all that I provided you a ton of information over the last 12 months. And a lot of that
5 00:00:45,390 --> 00:00:58,830 information is going to be flexible for you to adopt as your own. Okay, there's a lot of analysis concepts that are very strong on their own. But obviously, the
6 00:00:58,830 --> 00:01:06,630 best way to use this information is when it's in concert with other things that support the ideas. So the more things we have in Confluence, supporting a
7 00:01:06,630 --> 00:01:17,010 specific idea or bias or analysis view or perspective, the better not obviously, not everything is going to be in alignment, it's never the case, like everything
8 00:01:17,010 --> 00:01:29,940 else in the world. But if we have a sampling of similar ideas overlapping or converging with the same premise, then we generally have a higher odds of the
9 00:01:29,940 --> 00:01:38,970 outcome being our favor. So before we begin, I'll just remind you that this is my personal approach, okay, is how I use this information, how I internalize
10 00:01:38,970 --> 00:01:47,460 everything in the actual daily process that I go through. Well, in this case, every month when I go through the data at the last trading day of every month,
11 00:01:48,210 --> 00:01:59,400 as soon as the market closes, I go through this specific pattern of processing in looking at the data, and all those things go hand in hand with what you're
12 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:11,070 going to be taught in this teaching. So I try to do this level of analysis once a month, and it's usually the close of the month, just ends, okay. And ideally,
13 00:02:11,070 --> 00:02:19,380 if it happened on the weekend, you get to do a lot more in depth detail. But generally, months don't always end on the weekend. So they many times will end
14 00:02:19,410 --> 00:02:28,050 midweek and you'll have a beginning of a new month, immediately the next day on one particular weekday. So this is the analysis that I do personally, and how I
15 00:02:28,050 --> 00:02:37,320 do it. And what brings me to my monthly perspective that gets transposed onto the weekly, which we'll talk about in our next discussion. But this is all
16 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:48,630 primarily long term. And I'm going to show you just how easy all the things that you've been experiencing through this mentorship, how you can take just some of
17 00:02:48,630 --> 00:02:57,150 the things and apply it and arrive at the outcome you're looking for in terms of analysis. So what's the focus of this presentation? Okay, we're gonna determine
18 00:02:57,150 --> 00:03:05,910 the impact of the monthly present perspective on an asset or market. And we're gonna identify the directional bias or the higher timeframe monthly chart, we're
19 00:03:05,910 --> 00:03:17,610 going to classify the PD arrays accurately, to assist in key levels, we're going to complete an institutional analysis on a monthly basis at the end. And it all
20 00:03:17,610 --> 00:03:28,920 starts here, seasonal tendencies. Now, obviously, there isn't a seasonal tendency for everything every single month. But there are specific times of the
21 00:03:28,920 --> 00:03:37,350 year. And this is the reason why. And I want to preface it as well. Before we get any deeper with this. I mentioned that the PDFs are going to be useless to
22 00:03:37,350 --> 00:03:45,600 anyone that has not gone through the content and hasn't gone through every individual lesson. So the points that you get stuck on in here, you're gonna
23 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:55,170 have to go back into the coursework, and amplify your study and go into greater detail. And in this research, and plus, if you still can't get it, you get three
24 00:03:55,170 --> 00:04:02,970 more months after the conclusion of this month, where you can hammer me with questions, and I will do my utmost best to get you in sync with what I view in
25 00:04:02,970 --> 00:04:14,670 terms of analysis. But it starts with seasonal tendencies. So every day, we're we're bombarded with time. What's the calendar date today? Well, at the time of
26 00:04:14,670 --> 00:04:22,980 this recording, we're in August, so we would be looking for August seasonal tendencies, or September seasonal tendencies that are coming up into next
27 00:04:22,980 --> 00:04:30,420 month's trading. Obviously, you can't do much with what's already happened in July and June. It's already passed. So whenever we sit down with our analysis,
28 00:04:30,450 --> 00:04:38,100 God forbid, say something happened and we were taken away from the markets for a period of time or we have been ill. Okay, we just taken a hiatus something like
29 00:04:38,100 --> 00:04:45,630 that. We've been away from the markets and say, We just sat down today and, you know, what will we do today to get ourselves in line with the higher timeframe
30 00:04:45,630 --> 00:04:54,900 and start working towards that lower intraday perspective? Well, it starts again with the seasonal tendencies. So I've given you a great deal of seasonal
31 00:04:54,900 --> 00:05:06,690 tendencies that I like for every asset class, this teacher I don't have to break it down so much in terms of stocks, we do this in commodities we do that
32 00:05:06,690 --> 00:05:16,260 everything we see in this teaching is synonymous across all four asset classes. Okay, as we get closer into the smaller timeframe stuff, there's a lot more, you
33 00:05:16,260 --> 00:05:28,320 know, specific things that have to be done for respective asset classes and specific markets. So this one is a broad brush, concept or presentation where it
34 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,400 covers every asset class, stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
35 00:05:37,140 --> 00:05:48,870 Okay, and the next thing I like to do is I like to refer to the quarterly shifts. So we'd like to look at how the market is predisposed to move every
36 00:05:48,870 --> 00:05:58,500 three to four months, there's some kind of a new cycle or market shift that takes place in the marketplace. And we have to be reminding ourselves that
37 00:05:58,530 --> 00:06:08,730 whatever's been happening in the last couple of months, doesn't always equate to a continuation of that thought process. Many times, we'll see that it does. But
38 00:06:08,790 --> 00:06:17,460 we have to always be in sync with the likelihood of a sentiment change or shift in the market structure where the market will go from where it has been going
39 00:06:17,460 --> 00:06:27,690 lower for a few months, then we can actually mean make a long term low or intermediate term low and trade higher for a few months. So I like to look at
40 00:06:27,690 --> 00:06:42,360 the analysis with the anticipation of saying it's going to either continue, or likely reverse in the coming three to four months. The next thing I do, I sit
41 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:50,580 down, I look at the interest rate differentials. Okay. And I taught you that at the beginning of the year in 2017. And how to do all that, and we'll go over a
42 00:06:50,580 --> 00:06:58,110 little bit more detail on later in this discussion. But the process, again, is seasonal tendencies. That's the first thing I look for, right now, the month
43 00:06:58,110 --> 00:07:08,310 that we're in, you know, what's going on what's likely to happen. And then I anticipate or forecast the quarterly shift that may unfold in the next three to
44 00:07:08,310 --> 00:07:18,270 four months. And then I look at the interest rate differentials. So what I'm already doing right now is I'm looking at a time study in the basis of calendar
45 00:07:19,620 --> 00:07:29,220 with the quarterly shifts, and I'm overlaying with the idea of is there something seasonally that may impact price? So there are two references of time.
46 00:07:29,430 --> 00:07:39,600 Okay, so I start there all the time. Remember, my concepts are primarily time and price, not price and time, it's time than price. So I'm looking for things
47 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:48,210 to give me an edge from a statistical standpoint, saying, in the past, it's done this around this time of the year? Well, it doesn't always equate to that. But I
48 00:07:48,210 --> 00:07:57,120 would rather trade with that idea, first and foremost, in my analysis concepts, then not have it at all. So once we have a time element, now we got to start
49 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:06,390 looking for reasons to justify why price should do it. Okay. And if we're going to be referring to currencies, obviously, this is the portion where interest
50 00:08:06,390 --> 00:08:16,170 rate differentials have to kick in. If it's going to be stocks, you know, we will be looking at the bond market, okay, is the bond market moving lower? If it
51 00:08:16,170 --> 00:08:26,070 is going lower, that means interest rates are going higher, and it's going to be harder for stocks to maintain a bullish market. And if bond prices are rallying,
52 00:08:26,370 --> 00:08:36,660 that means interest rates are going lower. And generally that's going to be supportive of a bull market, in stocks, commodities, everything's gonna be
53 00:08:36,660 --> 00:08:50,070 reverse based on interest rates. The next thing I consider when I do my analysis, I'm looking for the market profile. Okay. I want to know, what we're
54 00:08:50,070 --> 00:09:00,600 doing right now, what we have been doing in the recent months, have we been trending? Are we consolidating? Are we reversing those types of things? I want
55 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:09,510 to know, are we part of a trend right now. And if there's a trend, that means certain things can be anticipated or expected. And if it's not trending, those
56 00:09:09,510 --> 00:09:22,950 things also have an impact on our expectations. So I consider what we're doing in terms of market profile. And then I start bringing in other markets that are
57 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:31,500 correlated positively and negatively. So I look at other markets to support the idea that I'm starting to see in price. So I'm looking at things seasonally, I'm
58 00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:39,900 anticipating a quarterly move or next three to four months. And I'm looking at markets to have a fundamental reason to go higher. That's what interest rates
59 00:09:39,900 --> 00:09:45,930 are. Remember, interest rates are the number one driver across the board on all asset classes. So if you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to
60 00:09:45,930 --> 00:09:56,520 get anything out of any of the market analysis concepts that were provided thus far. But once we have a fundamental support behind higher or lower prices
61 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:07,830 relative to the interest rates, the market profile is referred to next. And then after knowing what Profile we're trading in, at the current time, I look at
62 00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:16,890 other markets to support. Okay, or negate, sometimes it'll negate a trade idea, which is why you want to refer to other markets that are closely correlated,
63 00:10:17,310 --> 00:10:20,010 whether it be positively correlated or negatively correlated.
64 00:10:22,950 --> 00:10:30,390 And then look at the market structure itself. This is where I want to see where we are in the scope of higher highs and lower lows. And are we making
65 00:10:30,420 --> 00:10:38,850 intermediate term long term or short term highs and lows? And how does that nest out in the grand scheme of things. And also, this is where we refer to SMT
66 00:10:38,850 --> 00:10:52,140 studies like divergence and correlation ideas. Okay, and then I look at the PDE array matrix. And I want to define the market in terms of a premium and
67 00:10:52,140 --> 00:11:06,960 discount. In general, relative to the PD array matrix, and those reference points and focal points. Using that concept, I will calibrate the levels and
68 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:16,680 come up with key price levels as a result. And those key price levels are where the trade ideas will come to fruition. It could be either in terms of an entry
69 00:11:16,710 --> 00:11:29,790 or it could be objectives or targets. And by going through this entire process, and step by step in order in this way, I ended up getting to a monthly bias, and
70 00:11:29,790 --> 00:11:38,100 it defines my expectation on what I think the monthly chart is going to do. Now, some of you don't want to be long term traders, and that's fine. There's nothing
71 00:11:38,100 --> 00:11:45,480 wrong with that. Okay, I don't like to be long term traders. But I still go through this, this process. And it sounds like a ton of things, it sounds like
72 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:51,810 it's probably take you four hours to go through all that stuff. And some of you're probably thinking is this guy really want me to do this every single time
73 00:11:51,810 --> 00:12:01,290 I take a trade No, just once a month, once a month, you have to define what it is you're looking for. Okay, and then as the new month comes, you'll do the same
74 00:12:01,290 --> 00:12:08,580 thing again. Okay, so you're gonna be doing monthly analysis, basically, one time a month, you only have a candle forming once a month on a monthly
75 00:12:08,580 --> 00:12:16,860 timeframe. So you have to look at it at the beginning of the month. And preferably, as soon as the previous month closes, you're gonna be doing that
76 00:12:16,860 --> 00:12:24,900 analysis, especially because, you know, unless it falls on a weekend, like, for instance, the previous month closes on a Friday, well, that gives you a weekend
77 00:12:24,900 --> 00:12:31,800 to do the analysis, but you're not always going to get that now are you you're gonna get a lot that closes during the week. And you'll have to do your analysis
78 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:45,360 to get in sync with the next month's trading, immediately the day that the market closes. So by having all this process, you end up or I end up with a bias
79 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:54,840 that's defined from a monthly standpoint. And what I do is this is I take this information, and I transpose it to a weekly chart. So everything that I gleaned
80 00:12:54,840 --> 00:13:07,260 from a monthly chart, whether it be stocks, bonds, currencies, or commodities, all those ideas gets translated and put on to a weekly chart. So when we look at
81 00:13:07,260 --> 00:13:18,270 weekly charts in our next teaching, where we go from weekly down to a daily, that will give us more of an intermediate term perspective. So this is all that
82 00:13:18,570 --> 00:13:29,850 it requires for me to come to a long term bias. Now there's other things that we can do to help qualify and confirm some things. And that's based on
83 00:13:31,260 --> 00:13:39,330 inflationary or deflationary conditions, like I taught in January, I'm going to counsel you go back through January's content, it's a lot of stuff and then that
84 00:13:39,330 --> 00:13:47,970 particular month, but you can fill in a lot of the gaps that would not necessarily be seen in here. But I like to look at things like are commodity
85 00:13:47,970 --> 00:13:59,040 prices dropping. If we are, we're in a deflationary condition, if commodities are going higher that's in an inflationary condition, and news, specific
86 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:08,550 conditions have, you know, an outcome that's most likely going to occur and I give you those in January. But really the easiest way for me to look at
87 00:14:08,820 --> 00:14:15,810 inflation or deflation, I guess I just call it commodity prices, if they're going higher, if generally all as a whole, they're going up, not all of them
88 00:14:15,810 --> 00:14:22,560 will go up. We as we taught in the mentorship, there's going to be some deviations in that, like anything else would be expected because everything is
89 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:32,070 not black and white. But if the majority of commodities are trending lower or making lower prices, then we are in a deflationary condition, that means prices
90 00:14:32,070 --> 00:14:40,920 are just decreasing. But if commodity prices are going higher, then we're an inflationary condition. And that's going to have an effect on the markets as a
91 00:14:40,950 --> 00:14:52,590 whole. So basically, what we get to and arrive at is a monthly bias. That gives me what my expectations are for not only the next month that we're about to
92 00:14:52,590 --> 00:15:04,500 start, or just the month after that, or maybe even a month after that. So I'm trying to forecast Three months of price action, it can go for months, just like
93 00:15:04,500 --> 00:15:12,090 when we look at quarterly shifts, we can go look back at the last three to four months, we are not rigid in that regard that we want to have a little bit of
94 00:15:12,090 --> 00:15:19,320 flexibility. So when I look at today's data, when I'm looking at, like, quarterly shifts, I want to look back the last three months, but then
95 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:27,900 potentially even four months to see if there is something that might be missing. But when we're forecasting and doing analysis, we are in my opinion, I'm trying
96 00:15:27,900 --> 00:15:38,010 to forecast the next three months movement from a long term perspective, I may not be accurate, I may not be right, okay. But if I get just half of the monthly
97 00:15:38,010 --> 00:15:46,470 candle that's about to be painted on the chart, if I can get that right, that's many times enough for me to be profitable for the month. And that's my point,
98 00:15:46,500 --> 00:15:55,350 you don't have to be right to be profitable. But you're going to be finding yourself more apt to be right, if you do the things that we're doing here in a
99 00:15:55,350 --> 00:16:03,630 structured approach in a step by step process, and going through each individual component, one step at a time and arriving at that information, and then
100 00:16:03,630 --> 00:16:13,500 building layer upon layer until you get a foundation that builds on the monthly bias. So once we have all these information, we take it over to a weekly chart,
101 00:16:13,500 --> 00:16:23,100 and we can start using that on a weekly timeframe as well. So seasonal tendencies, this is exactly where I begin. So I start with the calendar month,
102 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:31,050 we're in and are about to begin. And I refer to the seasonal tendencies that are taught in this program, there's so many of them, it would be ridiculous for me
103 00:16:31,050 --> 00:16:39,690 to go through them again. And it's like rehash and I'm trying not to bog you down with needless study, I'm pulling all the information until user friendly
104 00:16:39,690 --> 00:16:49,530 approach. That's what this whole month is about. So you can go through and find out what seasonal tendencies are good relative to specific months. And then you
105 00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:56,070 can just put that on your calendar every year, you every time you buy a new calendar, or if you have a smartphone, just plug it in, you know, this month,
106 00:16:56,100 --> 00:17:02,880 I'm gonna be looking for hogs to go up, or I'm gonna be looking for Eurodollar to be going down, you know, all those seasonal tendencies, you want to know them
107 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:11,790 before the month starts. Okay, that way you can get yourself in sync with a potential quarterly move. And that quarterly shift if it's on the right side of
108 00:17:11,790 --> 00:17:21,000 seasonal tendency, Wow, you got it. Again, not every market or asset class is going to have a seasonal at the moment, okay, but focus on the ones that do have
109 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:32,550 a historical repeating nature, how they come to fruition More times than not. And Steve Moore has the absolute best in terms of commodities and currencies.
110 00:17:32,970 --> 00:17:40,410 And obviously, you know, what seasonal tendency is for bonds already gave you that. And I've already given you acetal 10, seasonal tendency for equities. If
111 00:17:40,410 --> 00:17:48,780 you're going to be a stock trader, it's only two of them a year. And one is I liked most is default, and makes the seasonal low. So I want to focus on the
112 00:17:48,780 --> 00:17:56,760 markets that historically at that same time of the year, will likely move in similar fashion. Okay. So again, it's not a panacea, it's not the be all end
113 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:07,530 all. But seasonal tendencies helped me plan to best potential big movers, without even needing to know what price is at. I know, there are certain times
114 00:18:07,530 --> 00:18:14,640 of the year I want to be doing certain trades. Now, I don't force myself into that trade. But I look for things like we just outlined in a step by step
115 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:20,370 process from a monthly standpoint, to justify why that seasonal tendency might have an impact on price this year.
116 00:18:21,690 --> 00:18:31,680 And the seasonals are specific and you've been delivered over the last 12 months and you gotta go back and look at them, respectively, to their asset classes,
117 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:40,770 I'm not gonna again, I'm not going to redo them, or we list them here. It's too many of them. Alright, right and next, I try to determine the next quarterly
118 00:18:40,770 --> 00:18:50,610 shift or market structure. And I refer to long term nine to 18 month trend, and so a monthly chart. And if the direction is bullish, that means if we've been
119 00:18:50,610 --> 00:18:59,220 going higher over the last nine to 18 months, I'm going to still try to justify why the next quarterly shift might be a buying opportunity because I don't want
120 00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:08,970 to buck that trend. If the direction is bearish, I first start to justify why the next quarterly shift might be a selling opportunity. I'm trying to avoid
121 00:19:09,030 --> 00:19:18,450 picking the tops or the bottoms of the 918 month trend and it has nothing to do with new moving averages here. I'm just looking at the actual candles going back
122 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:27,960 18 candles on a monthly chart. I want to see what we've done. Okay, that's gonna be like my primary range. I want to work from that you'll have to calibrate that
123 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:36,150 might go a little bit further to the left to find out where the seasonal and that's that season what the short term higher long term high or or whatever
124 00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:48,600 market structure high would be in the last 918 months. For instance, say there. Say you find the market to has you know 27 down you days and there's 27 down
125 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:58,290 days. You may be sprinkled with you know four or five down candles I said days rest should be the same monthly candles. You want to be looking at specific
126 00:20:00,750 --> 00:20:09,630 portions of price action, and I start as a, as a bellwether, I'd like to look at the nine to 18 months range on a monthly chart and get a feel for what it's done
127 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:20,490 in that, in that span of time, long term trends tend to remain in place for some time. And if the nine to 18 month trend is not clear, or it's in consolidation,
128 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:29,010 my personal approach is I will elect to anticipate the direction of the previous three to four months direction to reverse. So whatever it has done the last
129 00:20:29,010 --> 00:20:36,600 three to four months, if we are in a nine to 18 month consolidation, or I just don't know what the trend is, if it just doesn't look clear to me, I'm going to
130 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:51,390 anticipate some measure of retracement or reversal for the coming month or two. Right, next I refer to global interest rates. And I use websites like
131 00:20:51,390 --> 00:21:00,720 investing.com, you can use that link that's here. And what I'm doing is is I'm locating and comparing the central bank interest rates for every major country,
132 00:21:00,990 --> 00:21:10,410 and I look for the differential trades that way. So what I'm doing is I'm trying to find high interest rates to pair with a low interest rate country and
133 00:21:10,530 --> 00:21:23,010 basically form a forex pair. So that way I can adopt the fundamental bias. So if we are looking at currencies across the global front, this website here gives
134 00:21:23,010 --> 00:21:32,970 you the current interest rate. And it also gives you the last time it changed, and what the change was how much of a change and when the next change is
135 00:21:32,970 --> 00:21:40,050 anticipated or when the next meeting, I'd say it that way. And ideally, both seasonal tendencies and quarterly shift expectations are going to be in
136 00:21:40,050 --> 00:21:50,790 alignment with interest rate differential trade ideas. It may not be it may not be like that. But ideally, all three should agree. And this is what it looks
137 00:21:50,790 --> 00:22:00,120 like if you go to that website. And this is what I mean by gives you the current rate. And for instance, we'll look at the European Central Bank right now at the
138 00:22:00,120 --> 00:22:11,280 time of this presentation at zero interest rate. And the next meeting is planned for September 7 2017. The last time they met in changed was in March of 2016.
139 00:22:11,730 --> 00:22:21,210 And they dropped to five basis points. So we went to zero interest rates in March of 2016. For the European Central Bank, Bank of England right now has a
140 00:22:21,210 --> 00:22:33,120 quarter percent. And they're planning to meet also in September 14 2017. The last time they changed was a cut of 25 basis points and it was in August 4 2016.
141 00:22:33,870 --> 00:22:43,680 And basically all I do is look at that current rate column. And I look at which one has a higher rate and a group it with a low rate. And for instance, we have
142 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:54,930 Bank of Canada, it's three quarters of a percent. And we look at the Australian dollar, we have one and a half percent. And Andre outlined the scenarios there.
143 00:22:54,930 --> 00:23:05,640 And we use it in the mentorship to help frame some ideas. But I'm actually going to use this chart later on in an example. But we'll look at that later on. But
144 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:13,440 right now, this is what I mean when I go through and look for the global central bank interest rates. This is where I get the information from it's right on
145 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,070 investing.com backslash central hyphen banks.
146 00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:27,720 Okay after that, what I do is I define the current market structure. Okay, and the current market structure I classify the recent highs and the recent lows.
147 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:37,650 And what I want to do is I want to compare them. I want to compare them with positively and negatively correlated markets. Basically I'm looking for SMP
148 00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:47,130 diversions. And then I compare the relationship to the highs to recent highs to determine if the long intermediate term or short term highs are in control of
149 00:23:47,130 --> 00:23:57,210 price presently, in other words, are we making higher highs? Okay, and then we recently made a lower high and maybe even lower high after that, that means we
150 00:23:57,210 --> 00:24:07,590 probably need an intermediate term or long term high. Okay, and this is all taught in my basic market structure stuff. The if I see that relationship in the
151 00:24:07,590 --> 00:24:19,320 highs, okay, and is it least implying that an intermediate term or potential long term high is formed, then I'm going to be looking for reasons to go short.
152 00:24:19,410 --> 00:24:29,100 Now, ideally that's going to be in pairs that are with weak currencies paired against a strong currency during a time when I anticipate lower prices and
153 00:24:29,100 --> 00:24:40,050 quarterly shifts at the same time of season. tendency is most likely calling for that currency to go lower or that that market to go lower and the profile is
154 00:24:40,050 --> 00:24:47,550 trending. That will be an ideal scenario. And the reverse will be said for when I'm looking at the relationship of the lows. I compare the market lows to recent
155 00:24:47,550 --> 00:24:56,250 lows to determine if a long intermediate term or short term low is in control of price presently, if we see a market that makes a low higher low than a higher
156 00:24:56,250 --> 00:25:04,800 low than that, then we can potentially see or anticipated The fact that we've made it long term or any a term low and there may be further upside to go. And
157 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:15,900 then we'll be looking for instances where there's a seasonal bullishness to come in the profile is trending higher. Okay. And Coralie shift, we would expect it
158 00:25:15,900 --> 00:25:27,660 to be another few months trading higher as a result. So that's how we will use the information. And ideally, for when we're looking at a market that has a
159 00:25:27,690 --> 00:25:37,650 potential long term or intermediate term high in place, we wouldn't expect lower prices. By comparing those highs, we would see, hopefully, a SMT divergence from
160 00:25:37,650 --> 00:25:48,000 uncorrelated asset or against the dollar feels foreign currency, we would want to see a failed lower low with a higher high in the currency, we're looking in
161 00:25:48,000 --> 00:26:01,020 the short or a failed lower low in the dollar, whereas we just gave an example of would be another opportunity would be if we made a lower low in the dollar,
162 00:26:01,230 --> 00:26:09,450 and a failed higher high in the foreign currency. That would be an s&p divergence. And that would also help us with market structure ideas. So
163 00:26:09,450 --> 00:26:20,310 basically is just looking for s&p divergence and looking for market trends to support another price like higher or another price leg lower. Now trade selected
164 00:26:20,310 --> 00:26:27,870 in the direction of the current market structure going to be favored in my analysis. So if I can see clear reasons why market structure should be going
165 00:26:27,870 --> 00:26:37,200 higher and seasonal tendencies or are you suggesting that's in line as well? Then obviously, that's what I'm looking to do. And I'm going to try to focus on
166 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:46,410 those types of trades. I won't try to fade those types of moves, I get a lot of questions new. When do I learn to do reversal trades? When do I want to do
167 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:58,020 counter trends? I don't want to counter trend in these conditions where I have market structure and s&t behind me, and seasonal tendencies behind me and
168 00:26:58,020 --> 00:27:06,150 against the interest rates, I don't want to I don't want to trade against that, if that all these things are together, I will never want to fade that I will
169 00:27:06,150 --> 00:27:14,610 always want to only want to be a buyer in that bullish scenario or seller in that bearish scenario. And I would never deviate from that regardless not even
170 00:27:14,610 --> 00:27:24,840 on a scalp. And then look for confirmation in other markets and this is by way of inter market analysis. So if I have a bullish market structure and everything
171 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:33,570 before it is also supporting higher prices, and I determined that in my market of interest, I look for inter market analysis to support the this idea in
172 00:27:33,570 --> 00:27:44,130 positively correlated markets. And opposed to it in negatively correlated markets, an example would be bullish dollar on expecting higher prices and
173 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:55,080 dollar looking for weak prices or potential sell scenarios. In the gold market. Technically, a bearish market
174 00:27:55,080 --> 00:28:04,200 structure, okay, when I'm expecting lower prices and seasonals are behind it, and I have a pair that will be grouped with a weak against a strong and I'm
175 00:28:04,230 --> 00:28:11,850 seeing this in my market of interest. What I'm gonna be doing is I'm looking at Inter market analysis to support the idea in positively correlated markets and
176 00:28:11,850 --> 00:28:20,070 or opposed to it in negatively correlated markets. An example would be if I'm bearish Euro dollar, I'm going to be looking for strong dollar technically,
177 00:28:20,850 --> 00:28:30,330 something else that would be supportive of that would be if I'm looking for weaker Euro dollar, and I'm looking for stronger dollar, as it be as a
178 00:28:30,330 --> 00:28:42,390 supporting factor, we can use gold again as a supporting factor to further confirm it by expecting lower prices in the gold market. Now that changes when
179 00:28:42,390 --> 00:28:56,520 we go into conditions like what we have now we have potential war scenarios that may be a catalyst for that flight to quality, okay, or safe haven where gonna
180 00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:06,900 won't be that supportive behind your tray because it's being driven by something outside of normal, which would be it's being treated as a safe haven. There's a
181 00:29:06,900 --> 00:29:18,780 lot of things going on right now, as it relates to North Korea, and people are seeing this slide in $1. So it's safe haven. You can see the gold market rally
182 00:29:18,780 --> 00:29:21,720 as a supportive thought process there.
183 00:29:26,970 --> 00:29:35,820 Will profile is the market in Okay. And what I do is I sit down the first thing I want to know is are we consolidating? Okay, I don't ask if it's trending first
184 00:29:35,820 --> 00:29:44,700 or like I'm looking, are we consolidating because that tells the tale. You consolidation is the beginning of that next move. So if the answer to that
185 00:29:44,730 --> 00:29:52,590 question, when I'm sitting in front of the charts, and the multi is yes, then expenses are likely to show evidence prior to the break out. In other words, I'm
186 00:29:52,590 --> 00:29:59,490 looking for things to justify what side of the market is going to go first. Is it going to be the highs or it's going to be the lows it's going to break out to
187 00:29:59,490 --> 00:30:09,810 the high it's Gotta break down to the low. I want to be looking for evidences in science to support those theories. And it's no, the question is whether or not
188 00:30:09,810 --> 00:30:18,870 it's consolidating. If it's no, then the trend might be reaching an extreme. If it's not consolidating, that means it's trending. So I want to look and see, is
189 00:30:18,870 --> 00:30:29,070 there reasons to justify why that the trend that has been put in place? Is it likely to hit stiff resistance? Okay, because if it is retracements, likely,
190 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:39,330 okay. And the next question I have is, is the market under a trending environment? And if the answer is yes, then I look for continuation in those
191 00:30:39,330 --> 00:30:48,390 trades, because Trends tend to stay in place. And obviously, the notion is, new trend is your friend, but not in the end. So I look for I look for continuation
192 00:30:48,390 --> 00:30:58,560 trades to avoid the top and bottom picks. But if the answer no, is, is the market trending at, it takes it back to its consolidating. And so I look for
193 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:07,830 signs to support a directional breakout. And I'm going to be using inter market analysis to do that. And is the market under a retracement? So if the answer to
194 00:31:07,830 --> 00:31:16,140 that is yes, then I look for signs of continuation trades post retracements. And I was only looking for reasons and how far is going to retrace down to and you
195 00:31:16,140 --> 00:31:24,360 just use the PDE array matrix to get to those answers. But I want to be anticipating that retracement getting to a specific price level and then looking
196 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:32,400 for the continuation on the upside or downside relative to the trend. And if the answer is no, it's not retracing. They're not determined if consolidation or
197 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:41,040 trending. And I use the above ideas as outlined on this slide. So it's takes a little bit of thought process. And it's gonna be a lot of scenarios that come
198 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:49,020 up, and you're going to read it wrong to do things wrong and like you've seen over the last 12 months, I am not right all the time. I can't be right all the
199 00:31:49,020 --> 00:31:56,100 time, I'm human, and I'm going to do things wrong. I have a lot of things going on during his mentorship that's very distracting, I have a personal life, it's
200 00:31:56,100 --> 00:32:04,800 very distracting, and you are gonna have the same things happen in your life too. So you're gonna have difficulties you're going to hit, you know, potholes
201 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:12,360 and pitfalls, and you're gonna hit snares, and you're gonna make a mistake, and you're gonna do things wrong. But these are the questions I asked going in to
202 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:23,340 determine what the market profile is. And I use the ideas that suggested here to lead me to my next course of action or wait till more information comes. Okay,
203 00:32:23,370 --> 00:32:33,900 then I locate the institutional focus points, okay, that's going to be in a pdra matrix. And once I arrive at a portion of price action, I wish to analyze that
204 00:32:33,900 --> 00:32:42,540 being within usually the scope of the last nine to 18 months, that can deviate a little bit based on the market structure, but I look about that far back on a
205 00:32:42,540 --> 00:32:53,430 monthly chart. And I break down the selected price range into premium and discount. And not every price range will have every possible premium and or
206 00:32:53,430 --> 00:33:03,390 discount array. I just note the ones that are obvious in the price range. Now both the premium and discount rates are noted. I will look to build potential
207 00:33:03,390 --> 00:33:11,730 trade ideas based on the PDE arrays and referring to all the previous analysis points, thus mentioned in this presentation. That means I'm looking for the
208 00:33:11,790 --> 00:33:19,260 supporting idea of a seasonal tendency and calling it direction doesn't mean it's gonna happen. But I'm looking in that direction first. And then I look for
209 00:33:19,260 --> 00:33:29,340 signs and technical support that and fundamentals through the interest rates. So I'm blending all elements time price fundamentals because of interest rates,
210 00:33:29,460 --> 00:33:42,060 okay, but I'm looking for the PDA rate matrix to support the idea of having what what specific levels in a premium range should I be focused on, and what
211 00:33:42,300 --> 00:33:49,140 discount arrays should I be focused on so that way I can really get to a closer understanding where real buying and selling should come in.
212 00:33:51,630 --> 00:34:01,170 Which brings us to where I note the key price levels. Once I determined the portion of Market structure I want to use for my trade ideas. I round each PD
213 00:34:01,170 --> 00:34:12,870 array to the nearest 10 level, or zero level or five level. Now it's going to be a matter of preference whichever it gets closer to the actual PD array. Now the
214 00:34:12,870 --> 00:34:21,900 calibrate these the premium arrays above market price or wherever we're trading at the time I'm looking at the chart, I round down to the nearest adjusted
215 00:34:21,900 --> 00:34:30,450 number so that way I'm calibrate to the nearest five or zero level. And I'm rounding down so it's above us, I'm getting as close as I can by getting the
216 00:34:30,450 --> 00:34:41,640 nearest zero or five level that closely aligns with the PDA array matrix premium level, but I don't ever want to round up to it. I want that low hanging fruit
217 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:50,490 and for the discount arrays below the market price or wherever the markets trading at a time. If I'm looking for discount arrays below us in price, I'm
218 00:34:50,490 --> 00:35:02,310 going to round up to the nearest zero level or 10 level and or five level whichever gets me closest to the pdra matrix discount All array, but doesn't
219 00:35:02,610 --> 00:35:09,900 have to be required to round up to it. Okay, again, I want that low hanging fruit the nearest objective. And once I do that, what I ended up having is is
220 00:35:09,900 --> 00:35:17,520 the actual key price levels from a monthly standpoint, to those monthly levels. Now they've been calibrated, they've been supported with the institutional
221 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:30,030 mindset of a PDA matrix, discount the premium. And now I have a directional bias. Because of all the factors we went through in this process, so after
222 00:35:30,030 --> 00:35:41,280 referring to the potential or possibility of a seasonal tendency, I anticipate a specific quarterly shift directionally comparing strong to weak interest rates,
223 00:35:41,670 --> 00:35:51,450 okay, or vice versa, relative to the trade idea. And I'm determining the current market profile we consolidating are we trending, and I confirm my analysis with
224 00:35:51,450 --> 00:36:00,750 correlated pairs or markets for inter market analysis. And then I select a portion of Market structure to frame a trade within. So I'm defining Are you
225 00:36:00,750 --> 00:36:08,850 trading inside a range and using that for internal range or external range liquidity, then I define the PD array matrix to get the premium arrays and
226 00:36:08,850 --> 00:36:18,300 discount arrays to arrive at key price levels from the monthly standpoint. And then once I have that, you know, I'll have a directional bias, that's basically,
227 00:36:18,510 --> 00:36:29,130 you know, all framed from a monthly standpoint. So that directional base analysis on a monthly timeframe gets transposed over to the weekly chart. So
228 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:36,630 let's get an example of this. And that way, you can kind of see how the step by step process is, and it's really, it's not much work at all. And it's very
229 00:36:36,630 --> 00:36:46,950 simple. And that's really one of the other hallmarks of this month. It sounds like a lot on the description side of things. And it is it's a lot. But because
230 00:36:46,950 --> 00:36:57,180 you went through all the things from a conceptual and component standpoint, you weren't part by part modules, I gave each individual component, piece by piece.
231 00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:05,010 So now, where you're lacking your understanding, you won't be able to go back and find exactly what it is that you need to work on. Or it'll help you get to
232 00:37:05,010 --> 00:37:12,000 the questions that you need to answers to. So the next three months, when we get past August content, you'll have a better use of that time, and I'll be a better
233 00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:21,060 teacher to you. Because that will know, I'll put you in a better place. So you can ask the right questions. And then by asking the right questions, I will have
234 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:30,600 hopefully the answer you're looking forward to fills in those gaps. Okay. So let's take an example, using this information. And I'll help beat home the
235 00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:41,220 importance and the process that I use from a monthly standpoint. Okay, folks, we're looking at the Australian dollar. And I kind of want to bring some things
236 00:37:41,220 --> 00:37:50,070 out to you, we're looking at the last week of January, that's usually some kind of a load it forms. Then there's another stronger load it forms in the month of
237 00:37:50,100 --> 00:38:00,030 March, leading up into May and then there's usually a June July low that forms and then there's some measure of weakness, it takes place from August down into
238 00:38:00,030 --> 00:38:10,050 October. Okay, so the seasonal tendency here we're gonna focus on is January is usually a low forming in the Australian dollar, then there's a low that forms in
239 00:38:10,050 --> 00:38:20,730 March was a strong rally, it takes us into May, and it's a tendency to create a summer low into June July time period that trades up into around August and then
240 00:38:20,730 --> 00:38:32,250 we can get some weakness. Okay, so I'm going to using this as my idea or framework for the seasonal impact, and we're gonna be trading the, the
241 00:38:32,250 --> 00:38:41,220 Australian dollar, I'm going to be looking for a way we can do this seasonal tendency. Okay, we're gonna look at that as an example. Okay, here we have the
242 00:38:41,220 --> 00:38:47,730 Australian dollar, this is the monthly chart, okay. And I'll kind of want to use the
243 00:38:49,020 --> 00:39:01,410 the June time period as our study. So I'm going to actually just blocked this off here in the May month. So where that may candle ends, we're going to
244 00:39:01,530 --> 00:39:10,680 hypothetically say that we can't see this price action, okay? And I want you to remember that we called for these types of moves here. And we're looking for
245 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:18,690 bullishness, we're looking for this candle on here, also act as support, which we'll outline here in a moment, but I just want you to know go back and look at
246 00:39:18,690 --> 00:39:29,880 the information that we gave around the Australian dollar and you'll see everything that's here we talked about okay, so Alright, so we're looking at the
247 00:39:30,300 --> 00:39:45,780 January, March in June expectation for higher prices. Okay. So, this candle here is January 2017. Okay, and price did in fact, rally as one would expect in terms
248 00:39:45,780 --> 00:39:56,790 of the seasonal tendency is February then March now March. April, May had a decline. So we had a little bit of an opposite effect going on and seasonal
249 00:39:56,790 --> 00:40:04,170 tendency but then we get back into another time period. When June we enter Repeat bullishness again, okay, based on the seasonal tendency. So now we have a
250 00:40:04,170 --> 00:40:14,970 quarterly shift to what's happened here the last several months it's been going down. Okay, so the question I asked myself is, we have a seasonal tendency,
251 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:23,370 okay, when we're referring to June as our setup here, okay. Our seasonal tendency was expected or expecting higher prices in June, and the corollary
252 00:40:23,370 --> 00:40:35,010 shift has been last couple of months, it's been going lower. Okay. And at the end of may get ready go into June, what we're trying to forecast is what takes
253 00:40:35,010 --> 00:40:53,640 place in June. So this month right here, when this ends, we look back 1-234-567-8910 1112 1314 1516 1718 candles, okay. 918 candles. So if we look at
254 00:40:53,640 --> 00:41:07,440 this back here, price has been really in a consolidation. Okay, so I want to know what what the price is done in the last 918 candles on a monthly chart. And
255 00:41:07,740 --> 00:41:17,160 if you look at what we've seen, though, we've seen price come up with a low at a higher low. And now we've seen some measure retracement. So the question is, is
256 00:41:17,220 --> 00:41:27,000 we have had up to the end of May, we had three months of down movement. So there's three months of down movement, we need to figure out, you know, what
257 00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:35,040 does that mean? Does that mean that we're going to see continuation of that going down? Or is that more or less? A retracement? We'll have a look at some
258 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:45,840 things as we go through our process. But the next point of concern is we have to look at the rate front outwards, what's the global exchange rates for potential
259 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:54,450 banks. And since we're looking at the Australian dollar, we gonna look at what the relationship is between Australian currencies interest rate, and that the
260 00:41:54,450 --> 00:42:05,730 Fed for the dollar. So let's take a quick look over at the website that does that investing.com. Okay, we can see all the interest rates here listed. And
261 00:42:05,790 --> 00:42:15,960 we're looking at the Australian bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the interest rate is one and a half percent. And the last time they changed was
262 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:24,570 August 2 2016, they cut 25 basis points. In next time, their meeting is September 5, we have an interest rate of one and a half percent for the
263 00:42:24,570 --> 00:42:35,790 Australian. And for the US, our Federal Reserve interest rate is at the time of this recording, it's one and a quarter percent, but they just changed it and
264 00:42:35,790 --> 00:42:46,860 raised it 25 basis point, June 14 2017. So really, this was actually 1% versus Australians one and a half percent. So which had the higher interest rate,
265 00:42:47,340 --> 00:42:57,210 Australia. So from a differential standpoint, I'll show you how to higher interest rate than that of the American dollar. So by itself, fundamentally
266 00:42:57,210 --> 00:43:07,800 speaking, the yield attraction is better in Australia than it is of the dollar. Okay, so we have these seasonal tendency, the expected to go higher in June. And
267 00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:18,660 then we expect a quarterly shift to take place. And the rate differential is showing that the Australian dollar is higher than that of the dollar, as it was
268 00:43:18,660 --> 00:43:31,800 shown here. prior to June 14, the interest rate was at 1%. So now we got to look at the market profile. Let's go back over to our charts. Okay, and
269 00:43:32,940 --> 00:43:42,450 going back about 18 candles, you can see the market profile has been in consolidation. Okay, so we've been in a range. And it's important that we don't,
270 00:43:42,870 --> 00:43:50,880 we don't want to focus on any of this over here. So we have to basically pretend if you will, this price as a price action isn't there, okay? It's going to be to
271 00:43:50,880 --> 00:44:03,300 your learning benefit. But in a moment, just for now, just ignore this. Okay. So we've been in a range or consolidation, but inside the consolidation, we got to
272 00:44:03,300 --> 00:44:16,080 look for clues. Remember, the market profile? If it's consolidating, you know, we want to know if it's going to give us an upside or downside break. So the way
273 00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:24,600 we do that is we start looking for inter market analysis. Okay, and now we're going to bring in the dollar index. Okay, we'll bring in the dollar index on a
274 00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:47,580 monthly chart. Okay, you can see the monthly chart prior to Well, here's August, July, June, right here, in the month of May. We've had prices down dropping
275 00:44:47,580 --> 00:44:57,030 lower. Okay, so from a quarterly standpoint, this has been dropping. Okay. Do we look for a reversal, quarter quarterly shift for the dollar, or do we support
276 00:44:57,030 --> 00:45:03,750 the idea that it's continuously going lower? Well, we had take a look at the market. profile in this currency as well. Prior to this high, we were in a
277 00:45:03,750 --> 00:45:16,920 consolidation, all this was a range. Now I spent a lot of time giving you the outline, that 38 minutes was describing the step by step process. But look how
278 00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:27,210 fast we go through this. Okay, I wanted to keep it in time, how much I'm actually doing timewise to get to this outcome, consolidation, and we broke out
279 00:45:27,210 --> 00:45:35,040 consolidation. So above equal highs, this is always going to be potentially what a stop run even on a monthly basis. So it can be a failed break, and then come
280 00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:44,880 back down inside the range. And we get that here this is May. Okay, so in this case, we would expect the price to continuously go lower, because we had a
281 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:52,920 failed break here after a consolidation. So once they broke out one side of the consolidation, and it comes back deeper and goes through the midpoint of that we
282 00:45:52,920 --> 00:46:01,110 had to look for the potential for it to go down below the low end of the range, okay, or at least the bodies of the candles in here. And that scene right there.
283 00:46:01,380 --> 00:46:08,610 Okay, because the wick can always be erroneous price action, because the price did eventually go down below the bodies of the candles from a monthly
284 00:46:08,610 --> 00:46:30,780 standpoint. But how do we use this for the Aussie MFI go back to the Ozzie if you look at the relationship from the December low December low and 2015 in
285 00:46:30,780 --> 00:46:55,860 December low and 2016, we have a higher low if we go to the dollar index and we use the December high to December high in 2015 we had a higher high so we had a
286 00:46:55,860 --> 00:47:11,400 higher high in dollar we didn't get a lower low and Ozzy. So, from a market structure standpoint, we have s&p divergence in here okay. So, relatively
287 00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:20,580 speaking, Aussie dollar was unwilling to make a lower low where the dollar was able to go higher high okay. So, this means that this is always going to be
288 00:47:20,580 --> 00:47:31,830 potentially what a stop run a false break above old high and the accumulation is being seen in all Z. Now we went into consolidation now we came down to it low
289 00:47:32,250 --> 00:47:36,810 and we rallied away so we took out this down close candle making this a bullish order block
290 00:47:42,390 --> 00:47:53,910 take the open on the lowest and closed candle Rutaceae bullish order block we talked about this in the mentorship price on June opened, traded down to that
291 00:47:53,910 --> 00:48:07,650 monthly order blocks open 7380 right there. Okay. So opens trades down right at that level. So now what we have is we have a range, okay, we have a range, this
292 00:48:07,650 --> 00:48:23,400 high and this low. Okay, this is the most recent high, this is the most recent low. So in terms of definition of what those ranges are, this is going to be for
293 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:37,440 PD PD, a rate PD array matrix rather super easy for me to say no. So here's our range. Okay, and I'm gonna take this off now because s&t divergence has already
294 00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:50,580 been described. So at this moment, right here at the end of May before July, I'm sorry, before June rather, starts trading. We define our PDE arrays. From this
295 00:48:50,580 --> 00:48:59,310 point here below us, we have what the bullish order block, there's no gap in here because the wicks and all that. And then below that is the rejection block
296 00:48:59,340 --> 00:49:10,920 at the close at 7216. And then below the low with which the liquidity pool of sell stops. So there's your discount or raise? Did you have every one of them in
297 00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:23,160 here? It was a liquidity void in there? No. Was there a vacuum gap? We talked about them? No, it's not. Okay. Was there a breaker? No. There's no breaker
298 00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:33,240 there either. Okay, you only left with three choices, bullish order block. Rejection block, old low. There's no old high back here to refer to either.
299 00:49:33,810 --> 00:49:48,450 Okay. So you have three potential discount arrays. Now is that hard? No. People make this a lot harder than it has to be. Because I gave you the the PD arrays
300 00:49:48,450 --> 00:49:56,190 doesn't mean not every print price range, you're going to have every single one of them. Okay, and chances are they're not going to be there. There's only going
301 00:49:56,190 --> 00:50:04,710 to be a few sometimes and that's the ones you find on the chart. Is this one Was it ambiguous? No, it's It's definitive, it's actually tells you exactly what
302 00:50:04,710 --> 00:50:13,800 you're looking for your block rejection block. Oh, lo for liquidity pool. Okay, so you only have three choices here. First one you get to is this, your block,
303 00:50:14,010 --> 00:50:22,140 it opens trades down to it. Now that could potentially be a trade by itself, you had to justify what's going on here. Is there a reason to see price go higher
304 00:50:22,140 --> 00:50:31,500 here? Well, we'll have to figure that out. And we get into lower timeframes. But I didn't hear we would expect this to be a support level. Okay. So we have this
305 00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:47,940 specific candle opening is 7380. Do we need to round that to anything? No, it's rated at its at a zero level. Okay. If it were 7382, we would round it to 7385.
306 00:50:48,990 --> 00:51:01,830 Okay, because it's above, and we're trading down to it. So we have our range there. And also, if we define the range that we just did here, there's our high
307 00:51:01,830 --> 00:51:12,960 to low. And equilibrium is up here. So we're below equilibrium in a discount market at a discount array. So all the frameworks there for our PDA matrix. And
308 00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:24,390 now we have our key levels, which are here. And just that quick, we've already arrived at what we would translate into a potentially bullish scenario because
309 00:51:24,570 --> 00:51:34,170 June is a seasonal tendency month when we should see australian dollar rally. We've had the last three months go lower. So a quarterly shift is in order. It's
310 00:51:34,170 --> 00:51:43,830 been in retracement so is it retracing? Okay, was it retracing down into an order block, seasonally expecting higher prices, and we're going to
311 00:51:43,830 --> 00:51:53,850 consolidation. So what's above the consolidation during the market profile portion of this by stops, so we were going to be targeting a run above the range
312 00:51:53,850 --> 00:52:06,210 highs in here. And that's going to be here. There's our high and then we got a rejection block over here a little bit farther to the left. So once we reach
313 00:52:06,210 --> 00:52:09,690 this, the next area of interest would be
314 00:52:12,300 --> 00:52:23,310 the highest close reading here. And we will even went through that. Okay, so just that quick, that's how we arrive at whether the market is bullish monthly,
315 00:52:24,240 --> 00:52:31,860 or bearish monthly. In this case, we think we've seen a map that rather quickly, I've done more talking than was required to determine what it is and what the
316 00:52:31,860 --> 00:52:42,480 range is and what the actual levels are. But just that quick, we can arrive at a bias for the market from a monthly standpoint. And the expectation is not just
317 00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:53,190 one month, but several months. And right now we've had the month of June and July deliver very handsome rewards for being a long trader on Aussie dollar. And
318 00:52:53,250 --> 00:53:04,020 from a day trader standpoint, you can use these ideas to build in scalping and intraday trading only on the long side, during this month of June and July,
319 00:53:04,230 --> 00:53:16,320 because we're expecting this monthly outcome to come to confirm our expectations relative to our analysis on a monthly chart. So hopefully this has been
320 00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:24,930 insightful to you. Obviously, we'll be building on this theme as we go through the entire month. The next teaching is going to be the intermediate term
321 00:53:24,930 --> 00:53:32,430 timeframe and how I do the analysis. And you can see just how quick that was. It wasn't a lot of work now was it? I didn't do a whole lot of acrobatics and do
322 00:53:32,430 --> 00:53:41,490 any of that stuff. But at the same time, there's so many things you can add to this to confirm and qualify. For instance, if we're looking at the Australian
323 00:53:41,490 --> 00:53:52,200 dollar and the monthly. One of the things that supports this currency also is it moves very well with the s&p. So if we compare what the s&p is doing, okay, in
324 00:53:52,200 --> 00:54:02,970 here, if it's if the SP is going up, which we know it has been going up that supports this despair as well because it usually tracks the s&p really well. And
325 00:54:02,970 --> 00:54:09,210 it's going to close this teaching and see over on the intermediate term analysis