102-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Index Futures - Index Trade Setups
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-26 08:53
| 1 | 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:12,360 | ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is our final discussion this month of June 2017 content regarding commodities and futures. But I have to remind you one |
| 2 | 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:19,110 | more time to take a look at the disclaimer here. It's very important. And as a reminder, I'm not a CTA, and I'm licensed commodity trade advisor. Everything |
| 3 | 00:00:19,110 --> 00:00:31,200 | that we discussed here should be viewed in light of a paper trade only. Alright, June 2017, ICT mentorship, ICT index trading concepts, Lesson five, index trade |
| 4 | 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:31,770 | setups |
| 5 | 00:00:38,219 --> 00:00:51,239 | Okay, so I gave you the range projections and objectives lesson in lesson four. And I'm going to amplify those four trade setups for indices. As you're gonna |
| 6 | 00:00:51,239 --> 00:00:59,339 | see here, it's rather simplistic, which is exactly what you should be looking for looking for setups. If you overcomplicate it, obviously, you're gonna have a |
| 7 | 00:00:59,339 --> 00:01:10,709 | million questions and never come to the end result of understanding. So the first one we're gonna look at is to session up close. And when we look for the |
| 8 | 00:01:10,889 --> 00:01:19,889 | am trend to return down to a discount array, what we're actually looking for is we're looking for an index s&p divergence on the lows, gonna be comparing the |
| 9 | 00:01:19,889 --> 00:01:40,649 | lows from the London session into the 9:30am. The am session is usually going to reach up into a expansion move, it can be a higher timeframe PDA, but generally, |
| 10 | 00:01:40,949 --> 00:01:51,239 | you want to be holding out for time day, which is 1030 to 11 o'clock in the morning. Typically, as we understand it in forex as the London close, but we're |
| 11 | 00:01:51,239 --> 00:02:00,869 | going to be holding on to it with the idea that it's going to expand going into the lunch hour. Now. When we get into the lunch hour, it can go and |
| 12 | 00:02:00,869 --> 00:02:12,449 | consolidation. And again, we can be looking for a retracement back down below the lows formed in lunch. Or we can be returning back to a fair value gap or |
| 13 | 00:02:12,449 --> 00:02:25,679 | bullish order block seen inside of the lunch hour. At the lows that's formed in the lunch hour and the low that forms immediately after one o'clock, New York |
| 14 | 00:02:25,679 --> 00:02:36,029 | time. Those lows are going to be compared against the two other averages. So when we look at the s&p, we're looking at the Dow and the Nasdaq, and we're |
| 15 | 00:02:36,029 --> 00:02:48,569 | gonna be comparing lows at these specific price points. There's no ambiguity here, it's highly specific, we're gonna be looking for the indicee. to diverge. |
| 16 | 00:02:49,229 --> 00:03:01,559 | One of them doesn't have to be the E Mini s&p. If the NASDAQ fails to go lower, that in itself supports the idea that the s&p should rally and go higher. And |
| 17 | 00:03:01,559 --> 00:03:09,689 | again, as we go into the later portions of the day, going into the clothes, we're gonna be relying on time of day as well as we did with the am session. Now |
| 18 | 00:03:09,749 --> 00:03:22,769 | when I mean relying on time of day, we have to do what we can to hold for time. Remember, the days going to expand as we close to closing price or closing our |
| 19 | 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:33,599 | we want to get the maximum or outdated daily range in our favor. So if we're long or trying to get long in am or 2pm session, it's most beneficial when we're |
| 20 | 00:03:33,599 --> 00:03:44,729 | holding for the maximum potential range that could fulfill in a daily candle. So if we're looking at the Emini, s&p, and we see bullishness underway, and we're |
| 21 | 00:03:44,849 --> 00:03:56,999 | long and it's only two o'clock in the afternoon, we've seen some handles in our favor, or in other words, paper profit. Don't be aggressive about change, take |
| 22 | 00:03:56,999 --> 00:04:08,819 | this profits off the table because you want to allow the time of day to come to a higher level of delivery on price, which obviously will lend well to you |
| 23 | 00:04:08,819 --> 00:04:19,679 | getting a higher profit. The more you hold towards the close, the more opportunity there is for you to make more of arrange the am session and the pm |
| 24 | 00:04:19,679 --> 00:04:30,689 | session highs initially are going to be most likely a 15 minute or a 60 minute PD array. Now since we're looking at a two session up close, both the am session |
| 25 | 00:04:30,689 --> 00:04:43,139 | and pm session, PD array is going to be a premium array. Now again, it could be a 15 minute premium array or a 60 minute premium array. But you're aiming for |
| 26 | 00:04:43,139 --> 00:04:56,189 | that for both sessions. Now, if you notice how I have the diagram on the pm session, going into the close it could be two stages. It could fall short of a |
| 27 | 00:04:56,519 --> 00:05:07,469 | 15 or 16 minute PDA array and start to retrace Look for an additional ramp up that last hour going into the close till it reaches to 15 or 16 minute PD array |
| 28 | 00:05:07,679 --> 00:05:21,959 | or premium array. Okay, we're looking at the to session down close. Again in the morning, when we see price returned to a premium array. At that moment, we're |
| 29 | 00:05:21,959 --> 00:05:34,739 | gonna be comparing the other two indices, the NASDAQ and the Dow. And we're going to be comparing the highs for index SMT. Again, from London into the 930, |
| 30 | 00:05:34,739 --> 00:05:37,019 | opening equities. |
| 31 | 00:05:38,970 --> 00:05:49,170 | And we're gonna be holding till 1030 to 11 o'clock in the morning, or relying on time of day to get the maximum out of range. As we get close to 11 o'clock, |
| 32 | 00:05:49,260 --> 00:06:02,430 | there's more likelihood of a consolidation or Paul's going into the lunch hour at noon. And during the lunch, we're going to be looking at the highs comparable |
| 33 | 00:06:03,930 --> 00:06:15,570 | with the NASDAQ and the Dow futures against the s&p. And again, this can be returned back to a fair value gap or a bearish order block or closing of |
| 34 | 00:06:15,570 --> 00:06:28,770 | liquidity would and then go lower or you could run the lunch high for buy stops and then reject. But you're looking at the highs during the lunch hour. And |
| 35 | 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:38,520 | you're looking at the high that forms Post New York lunch. When that happens, and it forms there's always going to be some measure of short term high that |
| 36 | 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:46,830 | forms immediately after the lunch. And if you're looking for a two session down close profile to unfold, projecting that daily range, we're going to be looking |
| 37 | 00:06:46,830 --> 00:06:57,780 | for weakness immediately after the lunch hour closes. So from one o'clock in the afternoon New York time, we're immediately gonna be hunting and stocking the E |
| 38 | 00:06:57,780 --> 00:07:09,870 | Mini s&p short term high. So price was rallying up, we're gonna be looking for reasons to suspect a fair value play for return to fair value for selling short |
| 39 | 00:07:09,870 --> 00:07:25,470 | and bearish order block fair value gap or liquidity void or a run above or a move above the New York lunch. In the pm session, again, we have to rely on time |
| 40 | 00:07:25,470 --> 00:07:37,380 | of day, don't just take a couple handles of profit, hold on to it. Head towards the close at least try to hold on to it until 3pm Bond close. And if you can do |
| 41 | 00:07:37,590 --> 00:07:50,910 | all that you can hold on to it into four o'clock it's ideal to do that the am session and the pm session. intraday lows, again are going to be many times |
| 42 | 00:07:50,910 --> 00:08:02,100 | lined up with a 15 to 60 minute PD array and since we're looking at two session down close projected range, it's going to be a 15 to 60 minute discount the |
| 43 | 00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:17,580 | array. Now in the pm session, again that many times can happen as a two stage short term rally where early profit will be taken. If it does not do that short |
| 44 | 00:08:17,580 --> 00:08:29,520 | term bounce at a logical 15 or 60 minute discount array, hold for the break another leg lower going into the close and then that later point at which it |
| 45 | 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:42,930 | trades lower, many times will trade into that 15 or 16 minute discount array right we're looking at the am rally pm reversal projected range. In the am |
| 46 | 00:08:42,930 --> 00:08:53,310 | session, we're gonna be looking at the three averages NASDAQ Dow against the s&p and we're gonna be comparing the index SMT on the lows, so we're gonna be |
| 47 | 00:08:53,310 --> 00:09:06,240 | looking for divergence one of them will fail to go lower. That will signal the time to be a buyer of the E Mini s&p for the New York session and we're gonna be |
| 48 | 00:09:06,270 --> 00:09:18,390 | relying on time of day holding until we get to very close to 11 o'clock or just past 11 o'clock as we get into the lunch hour. Again ahead of noon maintenance |
| 49 | 00:09:18,390 --> 00:09:29,940 | we'll see a little bit of a profit taking retracement and then the afternoon we're gonna be looking for a rally to sell into and we're going to hold that |
| 50 | 00:09:30,810 --> 00:09:41,910 | until we get to time of day and price. So we have to refer back to that discount rate in the am session that caused the initial rally. And if it blends well with |
| 51 | 00:09:41,910 --> 00:09:51,360 | the higher timeframe discount rate obviously we expect a short term bounce maybe back into consolidation or resuming higher to take out the daily high but if the |
| 52 | 00:09:51,360 --> 00:10:05,880 | daily am session, discount rate is not the higher timeframe discount array They will look for continuation of downside and take out the intraday low in the |
| 53 | 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:19,050 | afternoon, their high is going to be a 15 to 60 minute premium PD array in the am session in this case, it creates a lower high than that which is formed in |
| 54 | 00:10:19,050 --> 00:10:27,090 | the pm session. If that short term high formed before lunch, if it's below a 15 minute or a 60 minute |
| 55 | 00:10:28,140 --> 00:10:38,730 | premium array, then we're going to be anticipating before it even happens, the initial move outside of the London lunch around one o'clock in the afternoon New |
| 56 | 00:10:38,730 --> 00:10:49,920 | York time then it will rally up to the 15 or 16 minute premium array and then anticipate a higher timeframe market reversal to fall as indicated in this |
| 57 | 00:10:49,920 --> 00:11:01,800 | diagram. Now I know what you're thinking 15 is not higher timeframe and neither is a 60 Minute but we're going to be looking for a overlap or a nested premium |
| 58 | 00:11:01,830 --> 00:11:14,220 | array exceed on the 15 or 16 minutes and daily or four hour so the higher timeframe confluence with nested ideas of premium array would be our catalyst |
| 59 | 00:11:14,220 --> 00:11:29,430 | for this Pm session reversal a and decline pm reversal in the morning we're gonna be looking for the index s&p divergence on the highs going from London |
| 60 | 00:11:29,430 --> 00:11:40,920 | session into 9:30am equities opening one of them declares that one of those three indices will be bearish divergence indicating a New York am session |
| 61 | 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:52,530 | decline we're gonna be holding again for very minimum 10:30am and closer to 11 o'clock at 11 o'clock anticipate some measure of consolidation or retracement |
| 62 | 00:11:52,530 --> 00:12:05,310 | going into the lunch hour and the pm session we anticipate a run on the daily low or the low seen in the lunch hour. Now, again we hold on to to the later |
| 63 | 00:12:05,310 --> 00:12:18,600 | portion of the day at least try to aim for holding till three o'clock bond close New York time if at all possible. If it gets to the premium rate it saw price |
| 64 | 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:32,610 | decline from the am session we could see price resume in go lower or if that am session premium array is not a higher timeframe premium array, we can anticipate |
| 65 | 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:49,620 | further upside in in the intraday high being taken out. In this diagram, the am session low is suggesting the low forms above a 15 or 16 minute PD array. And |
| 66 | 00:12:49,620 --> 00:13:02,220 | therefore, a lower low could be expected in the afternoon, trading down into the 15 minute or 60 minute PD array. And that would cause our again reason to |
| 67 | 00:13:02,220 --> 00:13:16,410 | justify a nested discount array. So if that discount array in the afternoon forms at a 15 or 60 minute discount array and it's also a nested higher |
| 68 | 00:13:16,410 --> 00:13:24,720 | timeframe for our daily discount array. That further bolsters the idea that this is going to be a market reversal in the afternoon and we can treat it |
| 69 | 00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:38,730 | accordingly. Consolidation a and decline pm rally. Again initially when the market makes a attempt to rally up into a premium array. We're gonna be looking |
| 70 | 00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:48,900 | at the indices to diverge bearishly at the highs compatibly. And we're gonna be holding for again, ideally around 1030 to 11 o'clock in the morning New York |
| 71 | 00:13:48,900 --> 00:13:59,430 | time then anticipating after 11 o'clock some measure of consolidation to retracement higher going into the lunch hour. Then we will become comparing the |
| 72 | 00:13:59,790 --> 00:14:12,450 | s&p divergence that should form at the lows comparable across the NASDAQ Dow in E Mini futures and looking for time of day to support the idea of an expansion |
| 73 | 00:14:12,450 --> 00:14:23,940 | the upside. If it's consolidation, we don't expect it to go all the way into the close. In other words, it's going to be an early short term high def forms that |
| 74 | 00:14:23,940 --> 00:14:32,460 | will be later on a decline seeing going into the close. So we're not gonna be holding for the rest of the day. We're going to be relying on time updates |
| 75 | 00:14:32,490 --> 00:14:43,410 | generally around two o'clock in the afternoon. It creates that comparable high in the pm session. The am session low is many times a 15 or 16 minute discount |
| 76 | 00:14:43,410 --> 00:15:02,070 | pdra In the afternoon, again is also a 1560 minute pdra or discount array. The afternoon low could run just a notch low or it can run the intraday low, formed |
| 77 | 00:15:02,070 --> 00:15:13,380 | an am session. Again, as a reminder how you determine which one it's going to be is if the am session bounces into the lunch off of a higher timeframe, nested |
| 78 | 00:15:13,380 --> 00:15:23,040 | level that's also seen on a 15 or a 60 minute discount array, then we don't expect the intraday low to be taken out in the afternoon session, but if that |
| 79 | 00:15:24,150 --> 00:15:37,680 | am session low is forming above a higher Time Frame discount array, then we would anticipate a lower run on the intraday low in the pm session and then the |
| 80 | 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:54,390 | rally or increase in price after that sell stock run has been seen. The afternoon high is going to be seen with a 15 or 16 minute PD array and we would |
| 81 | 00:15:54,390 --> 00:16:07,800 | anticipate now further upside but a retracement and gravitation back to the equilibrium price point of the day. Basically back to the middle consolidation |
| 82 | 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:18,780 | am rally pm decline. In the morning we're gonna be comparing the index s&p Divergence at the lows comparably against the Dow and NASDAQ with the s&p Mini |
| 83 | 00:16:20,370 --> 00:16:29,550 | and we're gonna be holding for a minimum of 1030 to 11 o'clock in the morning New York time at 11 o'clock we would anticipate some measure of consolidation |
| 84 | 00:16:29,550 --> 00:16:41,010 | and or retracement down into the lunch hour. After one o'clock is seen in New York, we would anticipate some measure of a rally again and we will be comparing |
| 85 | 00:16:41,130 --> 00:16:53,790 | s&p Divergence at the highs comparably across the three averages. And we will be holding for again around two o'clock minimum looking for a run into the short |
| 86 | 00:16:53,790 --> 00:17:10,710 | term lows. The Asian session high will be a 15 or 16 minute PD array or premium array the afternoon will be a 15 minute or 60 minute PD array. Now the afternoon |
| 87 | 00:17:10,710 --> 00:17:23,580 | can run the lunch hour high for by stops if the am session high forms at a higher timeframe for our or daily premium array. If the am session does not form |
| 88 | 00:17:23,610 --> 00:17:34,350 | the short term high going into the lunch at a higher timeframe for our or daily premium array. We will anticipate the rally after the New York lunch to run the |
| 89 | 00:17:34,350 --> 00:17:46,050 | intraday high up into a four hour or daily PD array where premium array and then the client after that says a very simple measure of what's causing the high to |
| 90 | 00:17:46,050 --> 00:17:55,830 | form in am session if it falls short of a premium rate at SEMA for our daily chances are it's probably going to rally again harder to reach for that level, |
| 91 | 00:17:56,010 --> 00:18:12,330 | endemic reversal. Afternoon low again reaching into the two o'clock hour, his main time is going to be a 15 minute to 60 minute discount array. Alright so |
| 92 | 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:20,610 | just as an example to show you what it looks like, again, give you an example of a consolidation am rally and pm decline. That's what we're seeing today at the |
| 93 | 00:18:20,610 --> 00:18:33,870 | time of this recording. And show you here as an example look at the most furthest down org chart on the bottom as the Dow and we can see going into the |
| 94 | 00:18:33,870 --> 00:18:48,750 | am session of June 2017. On the 23rd Friday, we can see that the low failed to go lower into the am session for the NASDAQ and we can see very easily and |
| 95 | 00:18:48,750 --> 00:19:00,690 | obviously that the NASDAQ was able to go lower and the s&p was able to go lower. So the Dow was able to buck that trend, indicating there was strong buyers |
| 96 | 00:19:00,690 --> 00:19:13,680 | stepping in and the s&p rallied as a result. Then we went into the lunch hour. And then immediately after the lunch hour at 12 to one o'clock in New York time |
| 97 | 00:19:13,860 --> 00:19:27,270 | that begins our PN trend or afternoon session for the equities or indices. And against bottom we can see that the Dow from the high formed and lunch made a |
| 98 | 00:19:27,270 --> 00:19:40,590 | lower high was unable to rally above it in the pm session and went lower. In the NASDAQ in the middle chart, we can see that the NASDAQ made a higher high than |
| 99 | 00:19:40,590 --> 00:19:56,550 | that which was seen in the lunch hour. And the s&p was unable to make a higher high that was seen in the lunch hour. And price trades down as a result, and |
| 100 | 00:19:56,550 --> 00:20:10,530 | back into the equilibrium or the middle of the range. Notice In the s&p that during the am session, that rally traded all the way up into an old premium |
| 101 | 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,360 | array, see the old high back here. |
| 102 | 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:24,390 | So blending these ideas, you can see how using the 15 and 16 minute PD array as objectives and targets and also to frame the context of what makes these |
| 103 | 00:20:24,390 --> 00:20:34,590 | intraday swings occur when looking at the s&p. So when we get into the August content, I give you the top down analysis PDF, it gives you like a flow chart |
| 104 | 00:20:34,590 --> 00:20:43,710 | perspective. I'll walk you through the scenarios that leads to these specific projected ranges and how to trade them accordingly in a trading plan format. |
| 105 | 00:20:45,540 --> 00:20:57,960 | Until I talk to you again, next week, we talk about the stock trading, doing short term trading and swing trading with stocks on a month by month basis. That |
| 106 | 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:07,560 | will complete the delivery of June 2017 content. And then next month in July we'll be looking at making trades across all the asset classes as well. And |
| 107 | 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,660 | until then, I wish you good luck and good trading |