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04-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 1 - Equilibrium Vs. Discount

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-08-26 17:19
1 00:00:29,550 --> 00:00:46,290 ICT: next Xbox, this is the fourth of eight installments for the first month of the ICT mastership. We are covering equilibrium versus discount. Now, again,
2 00:00:47,160 --> 00:00:57,810 just as a forewarning for thumb, some of you were actually pupils applying prior to be starting this mentorship. This is going to seem a little bit elementary
3 00:00:57,810 --> 00:01:09,000 initially, but I promise I'll add something to it that may bring a little bit more depth but the understanding of what optimal trade entry is. Long time ago,
4 00:01:09,780 --> 00:01:22,740 back in 2010, I introduced a simple idea of looking at swing projections retracements and identifying what would be deemed as optimal trade entry. And
5 00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:31,140 everyone that saw it obviously fell in love with it liked it, it was easy for them to see, they would apply it really quick to the chart. And I think the
6 00:01:31,140 --> 00:01:41,430 reason why is because ahead a indicator applied to it. And it being the Fibonacci. Now Fibonacci doesn't have any magic doesn't have any significance by
7 00:01:41,430 --> 00:01:51,600 itself, and yet to understand where the market may want to reach for. So there's going to be a certain measure of prognostication on your part to fit doesn't do
8 00:01:51,600 --> 00:02:03,570 everything for you. So I want to draw your attention to looking at where markets are most likely to create buy conditions. Now, this is not by signal entries.
9 00:02:03,930 --> 00:02:12,510 This is just framing a context initially, as a new trader, someone new to technical analysis, someone new to my principles, it's going to give you a
10 00:02:12,510 --> 00:02:21,930 foundation so that we can go into the charts and start looking at these things and measure them and then study them. Okay. So all this is meant is to give you
11 00:02:21,930 --> 00:02:31,860 a framework to work within in your demo account. Everyone should be working inside the Forex Ltd demo account, as I established at the beginning of this
12 00:02:31,860 --> 00:02:44,250 mentorship. So we have multiple price swings in here. On this daily chart, we're looking at primarily a daily chart initially for our setups, if you're a new
13 00:02:44,250 --> 00:02:52,140 trader, okay, and you seemed overwhelmed. And you've probably heard me talk about certain things already in this mentorship. Maybe you've watched some of my
14 00:02:52,140 --> 00:03:04,710 videos on YouTube or on my websites, tutorial section. And you heard terms that went right over your head. Some of the terms are created by me, some of them are
15 00:03:04,710 --> 00:03:15,840 industry standards, some are gonna require a little bit more description about what they mean later on in the mentorship. So if you hear something even in this
16 00:03:16,170 --> 00:03:25,140 presentation, just make a note of it in your notes. And then obviously, you'll pick up the understanding as we go deeper every month or something new. But for
17 00:03:25,140 --> 00:03:38,790 now, I want you to focus on a simple question. If a trader believes that the markets going to go higher, what would frame that context? What would give the
18 00:03:38,790 --> 00:03:50,640 trader that conclusion to trust? Buying a specific market? Like what goes in what goes into making that decision? Well, the first thing I want you to
19 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:58,980 understand is this is going to be the very first baby step to understanding institutional order flow. The first thing you need is movement, you have to
20 00:03:58,980 --> 00:04:09,510 understand that to be a buyer, there has to be a willingness of somebody with bigger, bigger pockets than you more money than you and they are the ones that
21 00:04:09,510 --> 00:04:18,000 move price around and they are the banks, okay? There, they're only gonna let price go higher when it suits their purpose. Okay, so it's not gonna be a supply
22 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:24,570 and demand factor. It's going to be a greed factor. They want money, okay. They're in the business of making money after all, that's their nature, their
23 00:04:24,570 --> 00:04:37,290 business, that's a bank. So if we are looking for buying opportunities, okay, many retail traders look for all of these patterns and indicator based ideas.
24 00:04:37,710 --> 00:04:46,860 And I want you to focus primarily on price price alone will give you everything you'll ever need in terms of indicating higher or lower price, and they'll
25 00:04:46,860 --> 00:04:53,580 actually give you the actual specific entries and your exits. You don't need anything else outside of a price chart. Okay to open high, low and close does
26 00:04:53,580 --> 00:05:05,610 everything for you. Once you look at this low down here and I want you to look at is high up here. Okay, do you see how that is the biggest price swing on this
27 00:05:05,610 --> 00:05:18,000 entire chart. So between August, August 14 all the way to the present time, in September, there is only been one major price swing higher and lower. So if we
28 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,260 take a Fibonacci level,
29 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:28,830 okay, and I'm only going to use Fibonacci to illustrate equilibrium, okay, because I first have to establish what equilibrium is, this is the largest price
30 00:05:28,830 --> 00:05:41,820 range, okay, or the market range that's presently being traded in. Now, what do I mean by present market range, this is the highest range we've seen, okay? In
31 00:05:41,820 --> 00:05:50,880 the last month or so. So if we look at this range, and I'm going to scroll back here, as you can see, there's nothing more significant than that, except for
32 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:58,470 this one back here, but we're going to primarily use this and it has a very strong reaction, we can use these back here. Okay, and I'll do it for
33 00:05:58,470 --> 00:06:06,240 completeness sake later on in the video. But for now, I want you to see a very strong impulsive, move away, then it comes back, retraces then have another
34 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:17,550 strong impulsive, move away, and comes all the way here to the high. Okay, when we say impulsive price move, or what will be referred to as impulsive price
35 00:06:17,550 --> 00:06:26,940 swing going forward throughout this mentorship. That is the indication that there has been displacement displacement is where someone with a lot of money,
36 00:06:27,180 --> 00:06:36,540 okay comes into the marketplace, and they have a strong conviction to move price higher, we already know that price is going to be set by the central bank. So if
37 00:06:36,540 --> 00:06:45,030 they're letting price run this high, they're offering at a higher price, as long as there's buyers coming in, they're gonna keep offering that price there. As
38 00:06:45,030 --> 00:06:52,980 long as they keep finding buyers, as they keep raising price up, they'll keep expanding price higher, higher higher, until there is no longer any interest for
39 00:06:52,980 --> 00:07:02,910 them to pair up orders with participants. Okay, other open interest in the marketplace. So they'll allow price to retrace a little bit until they can get
40 00:07:02,910 --> 00:07:15,090 more buy stops above the marketplace, it is not a buyer, buyer, buyer, buyer, buyer, buyer buyer market and then keep them stretching price they have already
41 00:07:15,090 --> 00:07:25,500 bought down here and then they're allowing price to be offered to the marketplace at higher prices. Okay, and that's that happens. They're all they're
42 00:07:25,500 --> 00:07:34,500 doing is selling off their positions they establish at a lower low. Okay, from here, the banks are assumed long positions in here they accumulate long
43 00:07:34,500 --> 00:07:42,660 positions, once they accumulate a position, they allow price to go higher. Okay, once that price goes higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, it keeps going
44 00:07:42,660 --> 00:07:54,360 higher, until their position is funded, and they no longer want any more position held. So they're gonna be looking for liquidation areas where they know
45 00:07:54,360 --> 00:08:01,500 that they're gonna be willing participants to buy, that's going to be above this old high back here. Why would they want to take price above that Oh, hi, here,
46 00:08:01,710 --> 00:08:11,220 because there's going to be buy stops on a fund level, it means big money. managed funds will have stop loss orders right above that high. And I'm going to
47 00:08:11,220 --> 00:08:22,110 go into details in this mentorship, about where stops are how to how to pick out institutional funds, levels, where their stops are at where high target, big
48 00:08:22,110 --> 00:08:28,500 money moves are going to occur. All those things will be taught to you. But for now, I just want to start your very small, because then there's a lot of folks
49 00:08:28,500 --> 00:08:36,570 that just started with this mentorship, and they've never really been through the complete library of my concepts, or they've haven't really exposed
50 00:08:36,570 --> 00:08:43,290 themselves to technical analysis. So all this seems Greek to them. And I don't mean that offend anybody that may be Greek, but it's an expression in the
51 00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:53,130 States, it means it's alien to them. But the first thing I want you to look for in price is you want to see impulsive price swings. Okay, and since we're
52 00:08:53,130 --> 00:09:02,940 primarily looking for discount markets, okay, in relative terms to equilibrium, we first have to understand what an impulse price swing is. So let me take the
53 00:09:02,940 --> 00:09:12,870 FIB off real quick, and go back to that price leg right here. Take all this stuff off over here. Okay, so we have one big strong impulsive price swing right
54 00:09:12,870 --> 00:09:23,550 here comes off this low and rallies up. We don't need to know what caused the buy down here. It's not interesting at all to me, I don't care. Okay. We don't
55 00:09:23,550 --> 00:09:35,400 know this price link is going to start until I'm sorry, we don't know this price like is here. Okay, until it forms. So I'm giving you a perspective, studying in
56 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:50,130 hindsight, the low to this high in here. Okay, that rally up or that impulsive price swing. We only require price to start coming down off of that and it takes
57 00:09:50,130 --> 00:10:00,300 at least four candles. No matter what timeframe you're on. You need four candles. Okay, from when the market makes a loan starts rallying up. What you're
58 00:10:00,300 --> 00:10:04,020 going to look for is once you see a high form, let me zoom in.
59 00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:14,430 Once you see the high form, you need four candles, why four candles, you need to have one candle to the left one candle in the center of the most highest one
60 00:10:14,550 --> 00:10:23,280 than a lower candle to the right, that's a swing high, and then you got to see price go lower. When that happens, you start waiting for price to retrace back
61 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:38,250 to equilibrium. Now what is equilibrium? Equilibrium is a midway point of a price move. Okay, so we're matching the high, from this low, you take your fib,
62 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:45,450 you draw it up to the low and you drop it. Equilibrium is over here. I mean, scrunch this up a little bit more.
63 00:10:55,020 --> 00:11:06,990 Okay, so we have this price like up to impulsive price swing goes higher, soon as we get three candles, then only then will we start watching for price to come
64 00:11:06,990 --> 00:11:16,620 down to the equilibrium price point. And that is basically the Fibonacci level 50%. Okay, we're looking for price to come down to that level. And as soon as it
65 00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:24,840 comes back to that level, and more on a daily chart, we go down into a lower timeframe and we hunt buying opportunities. Now I'm not teaching you buying
66 00:11:25,050 --> 00:11:35,040 entry signals, okay, I'm giving you context of how to discern when the market goes to discount. And when it's at a premium, and we're not trading it premiums.
67 00:11:35,070 --> 00:11:47,430 Okay. Well, I'll teach you how to use premiums, the first video of next week, okay, so we're only focusing primarily on equilibrium versus discount. We have a
68 00:11:47,430 --> 00:11:58,050 price swing, that moves from a low aggressively up, we don't do anything until we start seeing a down move, and it has to happen after three candles, basically
69 00:11:58,050 --> 00:12:09,690 making a swing high. Now swing high looks like this. Okay, you can see it has a high and a candle to the left, that's lower and a candle to the right, that's
70 00:12:09,690 --> 00:12:19,530 lower. That's a swing high. And And once that swing high forms, we're waiting for the fourth candle. Okay to start coming lower. In other words, we're looking
71 00:12:19,530 --> 00:12:28,470 for four candles to start turning around. When that happens, okay, that gives you now you're allowed to start looking for the market to come down into
72 00:12:28,470 --> 00:12:38,370 equilibrium. That means that 50% level, okay, once you're on the 50% level, and you're in a higher timeframe, and we start everything at a daily chart, at the
73 00:12:38,370 --> 00:12:50,520 daily chart, we're know we know now that between the low here and the high here, the market now has gone back to equilibrium. So it's at fair value, or at fair
74 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:59,250 market value. If you get something at fair market value, obviously you're not paying a premium, but you're not really getting a discount either. But it's
75 00:12:59,250 --> 00:13:10,440 still a neutral to bullish condition. That means you're not buying at an inflated price. So this time period right here to mark is offering an
76 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:18,720 opportunity to be long. I'm not going down to lower timeframes. Today, I'm not going to teach you that today, only thing I'm giving you right now is developing
77 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:29,730 context around the daily institutional price levels that are arrived at on the daily chart. And all you're looking for is impulsive price swings first, letting
78 00:13:29,730 --> 00:13:37,740 price settle back down into equilibrium. And then we discern what we're going to do once we move and get to that level. As you see without going into lower
79 00:13:37,740 --> 00:13:46,740 timeframes. The price does rally again. Where does it rally back up to its old institutional order flow reference point, which is an old high back here. So it
80 00:13:46,740 --> 00:14:00,870 goes right above that previous high. See that. Now the market trades off again and goes lower. So we have now a new new range, we have to now put the Fibonacci
81 00:14:00,870 --> 00:14:09,900 on this high, keeping it off the same low. Now why did I do that? Because this price low has not been violated. It only retraced down to here and rallied up
82 00:14:09,900 --> 00:14:19,800 again. Then we wait for three candles. The high candle to the left, there's a lower one to the right, this lower one is probably a Sunday even still this is
83 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:30,720 one here. Either way, you don't want to count Sundays, by the way, empty for on forex Ltd does give you this on a candle. So you got to factor that out. Don't
84 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:39,720 don't count Sunday's candle because it's a non event. So that's probably going to end up becoming this candle here. Once you get the down candle here that the
85 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:49,560 market has, in fact turned it's starting to go lower. Notice what's happening here. We're not rushing, we don't need to catch the high. Okay, it gives us all
86 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:59,070 kinds of time to wait and plan and build an idea about what it is specifically we're going to do when price gets to equilibrium. price drops down a little bit
87 00:14:59,070 --> 00:15:06,510 more than it goes up. What do we do the whole time this is happening, nothing. We're not doing anything. This is a higher timeframe principle. Most of you are
88 00:15:06,510 --> 00:15:14,340 all begging for a higher timeframe principle to trade with. This is the beginning building blocks to that. Okay? market trades Lower, lower. What do we
89 00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:15,240 do here? Nothing.
90 00:15:15,870 --> 00:15:24,300 We're not doing anything here yet. Okay, nothing, trading low or low or low or lower. All of a sudden, boom, a hits equilibrium over here. Now we can start
91 00:15:24,300 --> 00:15:34,530 studying price. We want to study price on the lower timeframes. We'll look for entries. But I'm not teaching you entry signals here, I'm giving you context.
92 00:15:34,830 --> 00:15:45,600 Soon as we get to equilibrium, we are now at fair market value. So the market is permitted to be bought. Okay, at the banking level, they will be able to buy at
93 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:56,040 these levels because there's not at a premium based market. The levels that are trading at this level here are at fair market value. Now banks are just like
94 00:15:56,040 --> 00:16:04,800 anyone else, if you go to the grocery store, and you see steaks for $10. I don't even know what they call it because my wife does all the shopping. The if a
95 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:15,000 state costs $10 at the market, and drops down to $8.50 a steak that's probably you know, a discount. And it may not be that price, I don't know. But for the
96 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:26,790 sake of analogy, we're using it. That means that we are now at a discount anything below equilibrium is now a discount market. When markets go below
97 00:16:26,790 --> 00:16:37,650 equilibrium, they do not spend much time below equilibrium. And there's usually a very dynamic price move away from that, especially if the context behind the
98 00:16:37,650 --> 00:16:47,670 marketplace is bullish. Now looking at this framework, we have here we had an impulsive price swing here, alright, a little tiny little retracement came back
99 00:16:47,670 --> 00:16:58,500 to equilibrium rally one more time took up the arm high over here and then sold off. Okay, went back down into equilibrium get and went to a discount below 50%
100 00:16:58,830 --> 00:17:12,090 of the impulse price swing that is now at a discount to the market on the banking perspective is that this mount is now at a discount is allowed to be
101 00:17:12,090 --> 00:17:19,620 bought. Now you just don't go indiscriminately in there trying to buy it just because it goes back to 50% or less. That's not enough, you gotta have more
102 00:17:19,620 --> 00:17:30,330 information. But for now, I just want to give you when we have a bullish scenario for a marketplace. Okay, we think it pairs bullish, we look for
103 00:17:30,390 --> 00:17:40,590 impulsive price swings on the daily chart the frame, higher timeframe ideas, there's other trades that you can take in lower timeframes in between these. But
104 00:17:40,590 --> 00:17:50,070 for now, I want you primarily focused on just this, because it'll give you all the things that you probably been lacking with higher timeframe ideas, and do
105 00:17:50,070 --> 00:17:59,280 beginning blocks of directional bias. Because it's daily, it gives you a lot of time to you don't have to be sitting in front of an intraday chart, you don't
106 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:06,330 have to worry about the boss catching up on something and steel on time at its job. This gives you a lot of flexibility and time to prepare for an idea that
107 00:18:06,330 --> 00:18:15,570 trade on. So when we get to equilibrium, we know that we are at fair market value. It's a market that can be bought if we are bullish, but we can't buy it.
108 00:18:16,110 --> 00:18:26,940 We can't buy above this level up to here. Okay, that's the that's the point of what I'm saying. The Best Buys come at equilibrium, or less. Anything below
109 00:18:26,940 --> 00:18:39,060 equilibrium or the 50% level is viewed as a discount. Now, the wonderful thing about understanding this is when a market is at discount and its underlying
110 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:50,190 basis is bullish, discount prices don't stay in the market very long, the market is going to want to run away from that really quick. Because this is a daily
111 00:18:50,190 --> 00:18:59,190 chart. This isn't that bad in terms of how much time it spent down here, below equilibrium. But you can see finally, explosively moved away from that and rally
112 00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:10,140 up through what I asked you guys to do in the third tutorial, which was to own your charts and mark out areas of where equal highs would be. And where old
113 00:19:10,140 --> 00:19:19,440 highs would be. The market rallies from that price point and goes right back up and clear that these equal highs when these equal highs are taken out if you
114 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:27,690 were a trader that only took along in this area, and I don't have to be exact science as far as where it was. But it's going to speak in general terms if you
115 00:19:27,690 --> 00:19:41,010 went long, somewhere in this small little consolidation before the expansion. Okay. Between buying the 95 big figure roughly up to these equal highs. That's
116 00:19:41,340 --> 00:19:59,190 about 9850 Yeah about 9850 And you bought around 9550 sets 300 pips move on a signal that would have formed it took a little bit a while to come to fruition
117 00:19:59,220 --> 00:20:11,550 but based On equilibrium and discounting, okay, you can frame the ideas in which the market should react, it should be viewed as a discount across the board. And
118 00:20:11,550 --> 00:20:18,570 if there is in fact bullish, the banks will dogpile on this and send the price higher. And it should be with quick dynamic price action.
119 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:32,730 Understanding where it should be reaching for above old highs above equal highs, okay, above, closing a range, okay, which we don't really have in here. But I'm
120 00:20:32,730 --> 00:20:41,910 just showing you just some one example here already. The first one, it's 300 pips, okay, then we have another price move all the way up here, this, there's
121 00:20:41,910 --> 00:20:51,090 no real retracements in here. Because lots, we have a high equal a little bit lower here. And then here's one here, if we would have measured the low to this
122 00:20:51,090 --> 00:20:59,490 high, it doesn't come down the 50% is nowhere near I can eyeball that, you can probably do that too. But I probably might. Let's do it, because I'm probably
123 00:20:59,490 --> 00:21:09,240 going to have some of you folks that are from different countries have a hard time understanding my English, let alone Forex, if we would have measured just
124 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:17,910 this impulsive price swing right here. Notice that even though we had the candle here, lower on the fourth one, it had an up close, but it was still lower,
125 00:21:19,050 --> 00:21:27,870 nothing came back down to equilibrium, it stayed at a high price. And it just kept going higher and higher and higher and higher and higher. So if we go back
126 00:21:27,870 --> 00:21:40,770 to adding the fifth to that initial price low, here, and we stretch it, because now we we broke, we broke this high, we're gonna keep drawing the fifth up on
127 00:21:40,770 --> 00:21:50,370 swings that move up dynamically. So we have this big parent price swing. So now we're going to wait until price gets back down to equilibrium. When do we start
128 00:21:50,370 --> 00:21:59,160 waiting for that when the market shows a swing high, which it does here, then we start counting to the fourth candle where it drops to the fourth candle has to
129 00:21:59,190 --> 00:22:08,880 move lower or be lower than the highest candle that makes the swing high. It's all it's a very simple thing. And then from there, we just start waiting and
130 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:18,750 count down every time it goes down to a newer, low, low, lower low, lower low. And finally, what's the hit rate here? equilibrium at 70% marks and as it does
131 00:22:18,750 --> 00:22:29,190 that, the market is at a fair market value. So that it can be bought on the banking level. It cannot be bought until it gets to that level or below it, they
132 00:22:29,190 --> 00:22:40,290 won't come in, they won't do it. It's not based on Fibonacci, I'm just showing you in terms of equilibrium between old highs and old lows. It says evaluation
133 00:22:40,290 --> 00:22:49,260 marker. That's all it is. Okay, so the algo will kick into a buying mood in here, especially if they have orders at that level or just a little bit below
134 00:22:49,260 --> 00:22:55,920 it. And if they are there, you will know it because the price will react immediately like it does here. It hits at one time it doesn't have another
135 00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:05,100 candle touch it. This one gets close to it, but it's still rallies away. Okay, so now watch what happens. We have another impulse swing here. price moves away
136 00:23:05,100 --> 00:23:13,830 from an area where we expect it to rally why do we expect it to rally there, because between this low and this high price should be sensitive here on the
137 00:23:13,830 --> 00:23:22,890 upside and it rallies. Now watch what happens. This is a big, big step. I'm going to keep this Fibonacci just like it is I'm going to add another one. Right
138 00:23:22,890 --> 00:23:33,570 on the low that starts here and it runs up here. See that? So between this low up to this high? Why we count in this swing? Why are we using this Fibonacci
139 00:23:33,570 --> 00:23:41,580 price. So I'm Michael and not something else. Because this one just showed reaction to want to move away from an area we would expect it to move. And now
140 00:23:41,580 --> 00:23:49,890 watch we have a swing high, here's a high, lower high lower high, and this candle is lower than the one on the highest portion of the swing high. So now we
141 00:23:49,890 --> 00:23:59,040 start counting down until price gets to what equilibrium or less. The next candle doesn't do it this candle does it goes right down through equilibrium
142 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:09,990 down into what we call optimal trade entry. So when we get below equilibrium, all this time in here, look how much time it gives you opportunities to get in
143 00:24:09,990 --> 00:24:22,950 at 62 to 70 and a half percent which is optimal trade entry. Sweet Spot. If you look at that price, gathers up more orders and rallies away aggressively. Watch
144 00:24:22,950 --> 00:24:34,740 it happens again. Now we have another reference point. This is where we expected price to react and it did. It gives us another price leg before all the way up
145 00:24:34,740 --> 00:24:46,950 here. From this low to this high. We get a high a low a lower low on this one and we're already below equilibrium. Look at the highs of the candle we wick
146 00:24:46,950 --> 00:24:54,180 through it. I'm not going to talk about order blocks here as much as I want to right now. It's for some of you guys that do know in a block you probably know
147 00:24:54,180 --> 00:25:02,460 what I'm talking about before I would say it but in here we expect price to be sensitive in here. Okay because We're below 50% or equilibrium we're at a
148 00:25:02,460 --> 00:25:13,500 discount price should not spend much time there at all it quickly rallies away. Okay and it comes back down I could draw a fib on this low to this high America
149 00:25:13,500 --> 00:25:17,790 I mean this deal after all, that's the context of what we're teaching here today right?
150 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:31,980 Cohen effect on all these levels where there should be reaction. Okay, market rallies up. Here's the swing high. The next candle the fourth candle is gotta be
151 00:25:31,980 --> 00:25:39,690 lower it does. It trades through equilibrium right into optimal trade entry. Does it stay there long? No, it rallies up, comes back, it doesn't break the
152 00:25:39,690 --> 00:25:48,720 high, comes back one more time to equilibrium and then the aggressively moves away. And expands, expands expands, expands, expands and then finally, it gives
153 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:55,140 us a reversal but nonetheless, it that right there from buying in here to here let's look at that in terms of range.
154 00:26:01,710 --> 00:26:14,370 300 pips again. Okay, you're not It's not every. Not every day setups, okay, but it's giving you significant setups. If we look at the moves that we called in
155 00:26:14,370 --> 00:26:16,080 here, using what I'm showing you
156 00:26:23,340 --> 00:26:43,140 if you bought down in here, just to this level here, 240 pips to here, it's 272 pips. If you held on to it, it's 400 pips. This price move in here. price should
157 00:26:43,140 --> 00:26:50,910 be sensitive right here. That's what I'm here to order blocks right here, you'll learn about those. But the Fibonacci we just showed you, it's still there. And
158 00:26:50,910 --> 00:27:01,620 watch this. We had a price swing here, that reacted off of a level that should be bullish. Here's our new price leg here, we have a high and a higher high, so
159 00:27:01,620 --> 00:27:11,940 we have a higher magnitude price swing that's going higher, we wait for the swing high to form down candles right here, equilibrium is right here into the
160 00:27:11,940 --> 00:27:24,030 optimal trade entry, which is discount, it's got to be below equilibrium. If the market is below equilibrium, we are in a discount market, and it should not go
161 00:27:24,060 --> 00:27:35,460 below the old bullet forms. In other words, wherever there's the impulse, price swing is that low it starts from, it can't go below that. So think about what
162 00:27:35,460 --> 00:27:42,750 it's already given you, it's giving you a framework to work within. Okay, I don't need to know exactly where I'm buying it, I just know a general area, I
163 00:27:42,750 --> 00:27:51,180 can fine tune that down into lower timeframes. When we do top down analysis, I'll teach that. But for now, if we understand this is the low we draw our fib
164 00:27:51,180 --> 00:28:01,350 from that a stop loss has to be below there, when this timeframe. So we can buy in this area here, put a stop loss down here define the risk between that, and
165 00:28:01,350 --> 00:28:14,670 then how much of a risk reward will will we get based on how far should reach up? Every time, every time, that price makes an impulse price swing higher, we
166 00:28:14,670 --> 00:28:23,520 just wait for it to come back down and there's no rush, we just wait. It takes three candles on the third candle, it can hit equilibrium go below it. But we
167 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:31,020 needed to simply wait for the swing high to form and then you watch it drop down. Once it drops down, you know what you're gonna be expecting. The price
168 00:28:31,020 --> 00:28:41,910 move should be explosive to the upside, because the market goes back to a discount. below equilibrium, it can be as sensitive at equilibrium. But here's
169 00:28:41,910 --> 00:28:50,640 what we're supposed to be focusing primarily on, you want high odds trades, you want high probability explosive price action moves in your favor. That happens
170 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:59,550 when it goes below equilibrium, because the market will go to a very, very suppressed levels. And when they go below equilibrium to a discount level,
171 00:28:59,970 --> 00:29:09,210 markets will not sustain discount prices very long if the underlying pinnings of the marketplace is bullish. So it gives you two things. It gives you a context
172 00:29:09,210 --> 00:29:19,740 to work with them when for buys. And it gives you also have a relative strength study that's built in, it should be sensitive, it should be dynamic price action
173 00:29:19,740 --> 00:29:29,610 moves away from that equilibrium or less, more specifically below equilibrium. So that's where the optimal trade entry idea came from when I was using the 62%
174 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:45,270 or 70% treatment levels that you see on our Fibonacci is well, it's this area 62 70.5 and 79%. Okay, and those levels are very, very sensitive, not because of
175 00:29:45,270 --> 00:29:55,080 Fibonacci sake, but because it's really just measuring how far the current price range has been. The algo had a low down here and it had a high here. This is the
176 00:29:55,080 --> 00:30:08,970 total range that we're trading inside of right now. Okay, right now, this Is this is right now current as of today, Friday's close of September 16. Okay, so
177 00:30:09,180 --> 00:30:19,980 right now we are in the range that's been defined by the high and the low here. So that level of equilibrium still exist, which is here. So any buy condition
178 00:30:19,980 --> 00:30:30,630 that occurs below this level here is high probability. What does that mean? That means you just measure every single impulsive price leg higher when it moves up.
179 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:50,190 Actually, let's do this. Let's shade this area. And that way, we'll understand that anything below anything below here. That's any high probability or discount
180 00:30:50,190 --> 00:31:00,870 market. Okay. So now when we when we understand that, we can define every single price leg that moves up, which is an impulsive price swing, when it moves
181 00:31:00,870 --> 00:31:16,050 higher. All we have to do is measured the new equilibrium point at which it's created. In here, I'm going to start right here. There's an impulse price leg
182 00:31:16,050 --> 00:31:22,770 right there. So we have the low up to the high swing high force cannons gotta be down, it
183 00:31:22,770 --> 00:31:33,030 does hit equilibrium. Should it respond? Yes, it should be dynamic. Does it go higher? Yes, it does. makes a new high. Where's it go to Michael above a
184 00:31:33,030 --> 00:31:40,440 previous high over here, and then it trades back down. Now here we have equilibrium trades equilibria and then aggressively trades through it, you're
185 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:47,460 probably thinking, Oh, it failed, it does. That's what's going to happen. Sometimes you're going to lose money, I want you to understand that it's not
186 00:31:47,460 --> 00:31:54,630 going to be perfect. But it's going to give you more context than you have right now, especially if you're new. If you have been looking at price action before,
187 00:31:54,720 --> 00:32:02,700 you probably have never looked at it like this in terms of valuation between equilibrium and discount. And we're going to teach the importance of that the
188 00:32:02,700 --> 00:32:12,450 rest of this month in the remaining teachings. But for now, I want to introduce you to the idea of viewing price in this context. below equilibrium here, no
189 00:32:12,450 --> 00:32:20,190 discount, we come all the way back down and take out a stop stop runs is what's going to be a different profile. And if you take a loss, that's what you expect.
190 00:32:20,340 --> 00:32:28,380 You expect this occurrence to happen. Where the market takes the low out? Well, if it does take that low out what is it probably really doing, it's taking stops
191 00:32:28,380 --> 00:32:36,540 out. So that should be a turtle soup, Turtle soups, a false breakout pattern went below that low, we should see a responsiveness that's aggressive, that
192 00:32:36,540 --> 00:32:54,120 moves higher. We see that here. Okay, market trades up makes an impulsive price leg. From that low, all the way up to here. Now watch. Here's the cool part
193 00:32:54,120 --> 00:33:01,920 about this. We have a swing high here the high the lower high, lower high, and the fourth candle is down. Does it ever get down to equilibrium? No. So we have
194 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:11,670 no trade, we don't catch anything that keeps going up. No problem I'm worried about you being worried about next price leg we look for. Okay, we have this
195 00:33:11,670 --> 00:33:23,370 price leg here. We're only focusing on inside the yellow area. That's the shaded discount portion of this market. That's the dollar Swissy this current market is
196 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:38,850 in a discount below. Below this line here, this is his equilibrium, the top of that yellow shaded area and below is discount. So the market should be
197 00:33:38,850 --> 00:33:51,690 responsive at levels of discount. After we after we see this high form, we look for the high the swing high the form and the force candles got to show
198 00:33:51,690 --> 00:33:58,530 willingness to be lower. It does and then we simply just wait wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait until it hits equilibrium. And then we go down to
199 00:33:58,530 --> 00:34:08,730 the lower timeframes and we look for trading signals. There may or may not been beat. They may or may not have rather been one here. Okay. I'm gonna say maybe
200 00:34:08,730 --> 00:34:16,260 it took one there and maybe it took you took a loss. Great. No problem. You took a loss. Here's a here's a losing trade here. And here's a losing trade here. No
201 00:34:16,260 --> 00:34:27,390 problem. We had a winner here. Mark has gone down into a deeper discount. Look at this swing low over here. Okay, this is the building blocks of understanding
202 00:34:27,390 --> 00:34:36,270 how institutional order flow will incorporate bullish order blocks. When market comes down into a discount and a deep retracement of this impulsive price swing.
203 00:34:36,780 --> 00:34:47,160 You're looking at the down candles, gray at the low. Okay, if you have two of them consecutively. It begins at the top of this candle right here. So draw that
204 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:56,460 out in time the market goes into that area. This is a buying opportunity you would go down to a lower timeframe. Again, the daily chart is very high. It's
205 00:34:56,460 --> 00:35:04,950 high timeframe. So you're gonna be able to break that down into four hour 60 minutes. minute and five minute, look for buying opportunities in that, that
206 00:35:04,950 --> 00:35:18,390 area for discounting market immediately aggressively moves away. When we get that we get another price leg. And we can take our Fibonacci and measure it to
207 00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:28,110 come up with another equilibrium doesn't come back down to discount for equilibrium in here. So we don't have any trade here. The market rallies again.
208 00:35:30,870 --> 00:35:44,760 From that level, we put our low on our Fibonacci. And here's our high here. So we have a high, a lower high and a down candle. It's equilibrium, we get a
209 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:57,660 response rallies up, trades right back up to old low rejection. I'm not looking for sell signals, we're not teaching that here. Now we have a higher magnitude
210 00:35:57,660 --> 00:36:06,570 price swing, all this impulsive price swing, even though it's broken up into three legs, you still have to measure that because that's the it's there. It's
211 00:36:06,570 --> 00:36:09,630 the parent price swing that's currently being traded in right here.
212 00:36:10,770 --> 00:36:18,030 Okay, so this movement here, when price gets down to equilibrium, we would study and see if there's a reason to be a buyer. There's an order block here. So there
213 00:36:18,030 --> 00:36:25,080 may be in something look at on a lower timeframe. Maybe there was a loss. Maybe you didn't take a trade? I don't know. But price goes down into a deeper
214 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:37,290 discount. Trade right into bullish order block. Price hits, it doesn't spend much time there. No, it rallies aggressively. It fills in an area where price
215 00:36:37,290 --> 00:36:47,040 had already moved in rather quickly. And I'll just toss this in there from for teasing purposes, it goes right up to the bottom of this bullish candle which is
216 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:56,760 a bearish order block. And that's an area where you would look to take profits on a long position. If you did something like that. Buying say you bought it me
217 00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:08,730 here in the middle of this range here. And you got out there. That's 175 pips factor in sped by by 170. pips, how can anyone be upset with something like that
218 00:37:08,730 --> 00:37:17,040 when you're waiting around, you're not getting a million trades. Okay, there's not a lot of this is a daily chart. So you're getting about one per week. Really
219 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:26,160 good high odds opportunities. So when you see moves like this, okay, you can see, there's a willingness to, to recapitalize these levels based on the fact
220 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:36,330 that market goes to a discount, we have the same price swing back here, you always use the same ranges that we're currently in this range is still in
221 00:37:36,330 --> 00:37:47,040 effect, that comes back down into the 70% Chasing level, which is still a deep discount market. And also it blows out an old low. So there may be some stocks
222 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:57,210 down here that the market takes out. Now think if the markets going to go higher, generally. Now think if the markets gonna go higher, and it's bullish,
223 00:37:57,240 --> 00:38:07,530 and it comes down below an old low, that's generally going to be a stoploss. Run. That was the first thing I taught in 2010. To look for dynamic price moves,
224 00:38:07,740 --> 00:38:17,790 if you understand what a bullish market is, okay, you want to define every time the market creates a low and then violates that low. If it does that, generally,
225 00:38:17,790 --> 00:38:25,650 that means that the market makers or the institutional bank in algo, will go down below the lows, and gather up any orders that will be resting below those
226 00:38:25,650 --> 00:38:36,330 orders. So below that low, this low here, it's violated here immediately rejects and goes higher. This low here, it goes below here rejects Emilian goes higher.
227 00:38:36,870 --> 00:38:45,510 This low here, it goes down below it rejects me goes higher. So now think about what I've just given you, I've given you framework to map out what equilibrium
228 00:38:45,510 --> 00:38:54,870 is. Okay, what is that? And then I told you what the benefit of knowing what below equilibrium is it's discount. So when you're looking for a market when
229 00:38:54,870 --> 00:39:03,660 you're looking at a range in the marketplace, and that market goes below an old low that gives you context to look for what stop rates below the lows, and there
230 00:39:03,660 --> 00:39:11,490 should be a reaction going higher if the markets bullish. If the market's underlying tone is bullish, then we're gonna frame all that stuff. But for now,
231 00:39:11,490 --> 00:39:19,440 I want you to study goes on your charts. And you'll see a plethora of these things occurring all the time. And it gives you the building blocks of knowing
232 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:28,080 what trading setups form, how the market should react, and you'll start seeing these things before they happen. You want to study them in the past first, but
233 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:38,490 then start looking for them to anticipate future moves based on what I'm teaching you here. So in summary, we understand that equilibrium is the midway
234 00:39:38,490 --> 00:39:50,220 point of a range, we need an impulsive price leg higher. Once we identify that individual impulse price swing, we run our Fibonacci from the low up to the high
235 00:39:50,250 --> 00:39:58,200 and then we wait for four candles. Once this fourth candle is lower than the highest one. We start waiting for price to come down into equilibrium when it
236 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:06,840 does that. We can Go in and hunt for buying opportunities on the lower timeframes. We blend in institutional order flow ideas like the order blocks,
237 00:40:06,870 --> 00:40:16,620 mitigation, blocks, breakers, Turtle soups, okay, and optimal trade entries, all those things, either one of them, any one of them can be applied for a buying
238 00:40:16,620 --> 00:40:27,420 scenario. But if you ever see the conditions that's bullish, and a low is swept out, that's when you anticipate a turtle suit. The question I get all the time
239 00:40:27,420 --> 00:40:36,090 is, how do I know if the markets going to keep going lower, or if it's going to just go below an old low and then rally up, this is the beginning basis point of
240 00:40:36,090 --> 00:40:47,730 knowing when that occurs and when not to expect it to turn around. So we had the market reacting off of this, it rallies up. Now we have another price leg right
241 00:40:47,730 --> 00:40:58,020 in here. It took out an old high. So we can go over here. Draw a Fibonacci on that low. Up to this high.
242 00:40:59,730 --> 00:41:06,360 price comes down to equilibrium, we start hunting for buying opportunities right in here on a lower timeframe. I don't know if there's anything there yet. You'll
243 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:16,860 have to go in and look at it in your charts yourself. But we go down into 62% retracement level, which is now discount. Okay? So when we identify equilibrium,
244 00:41:17,100 --> 00:41:30,690 that's the 50% level. When price goes below 50%, it's at a discount. When it's at the highest probable degree of bullishness at a discount price. That's when
245 00:41:30,690 --> 00:41:31,590 you have this
246 00:41:36,869 --> 00:41:49,379 the 62 to 70% treatment level in that area right there. That's the deep discount that we look for in both conditions and why Fibonacci 60 to 70% transfer levels
247 00:41:49,379 --> 00:42:00,659 work. Any other time to Bonacci is going to fail you all the time. It's the foundations behind price action that calls these indicators to work sometimes
248 00:42:00,989 --> 00:42:11,549 even overbought and oversold indicators will work if you apply these ideas to them. Bullish Divergence, trend following hidden divergence, okay, or type two
249 00:42:11,549 --> 00:42:22,739 trend following which is really what it is developed and discovered by Nick van nice and not George lane. By the way. The the ideas have to come by way of sound
250 00:42:23,729 --> 00:42:33,119 price action, understanding, if it's not there, based on what the foundations of price action are implying, then it's not going to work. It doesn't matter what
251 00:42:33,119 --> 00:42:42,209 didn't hit you slap on your chart, you need to have the underpinnings of the market being dictated by price action, not by a mathematically derived or
252 00:42:42,209 --> 00:42:50,099 crunching of past price. To give you some prognostication, it doesn't work like that the market will not respond to an indicator, the indicator is only
253 00:42:50,099 --> 00:42:59,099 reflecting a mathematical historical reference of something that price has already done. That has no basis on what the markets going to do going forward.
254 00:42:59,339 --> 00:43:07,229 So when we look at markets, we have to number one, define what these price ranges are. That means number one, if we're bullish, all we're doing is waiting
255 00:43:07,229 --> 00:43:13,409 around what are we waiting around for Michael? We're waiting for a price move. Well, I'm with I'm missing all that. Yeah, you probably are. And that's
256 00:43:13,409 --> 00:43:22,319 patients. Traders that make money professionally or manage funds are not chasing everything that goes on in the marketplace. They know exactly what they're
257 00:43:22,319 --> 00:43:31,649 looking for. That once you get a price run like this, it says impulsive pricing, then you wait, what are you waiting for four candles up here. When the fourth
258 00:43:31,649 --> 00:43:39,749 one comes, then you simply wait for to come back down the equilibrium. Once it gets to equilibrium, you can look for a signal. But I'm stressing the difference
259 00:43:39,749 --> 00:43:51,839 between equilibrium versus discount is you want it to now go below equilibrium into 62% minimum down into 79% treatment. When it does that that's when you have
260 00:43:51,839 --> 00:44:02,699 the highest probable degree of bullishness while the markets in a discount, then you should see explosive price action to the upside. If you're using a daily
261 00:44:02,699 --> 00:44:11,999 chart, you'll be able to use this as a day trader as a short term trader, a position trader, a swing trader, nothing is been changed in the delivery of what
262 00:44:11,999 --> 00:44:23,009 I look for, relative to bullish order blocks, Turtle soups, all that business. Here's the cool thing. If we understand that we're bullish in the discount zone
263 00:44:23,009 --> 00:44:36,539 like we've had here, defined by this Fibonacci level, okay, down in this area here, we're looking for specific things to happen. We're not just looking at why
264 00:44:36,539 --> 00:44:45,899 this used the term zone but not like zone like supply and demand zone in this section or all the say here, it's not because it's not really defined in the
265 00:44:45,929 --> 00:44:58,589 sense that it's supply and demand zones, but it's a total area of valuation, where between equilibrium and less than it's in a discount. So if you're going
266 00:44:58,589 --> 00:45:06,299 to have this as a range that work with them. What inside of the range? Are you really specifically looking for? Okay? Well, you're looking for specific
267 00:45:06,299 --> 00:45:16,229 reference points in terms of institutional order flow, that means a stop run like we defined here. And here with a market went lower than a previous low and
268 00:45:16,229 --> 00:45:24,329 here, and then you anticipate what the market to expand to the upside. If we understand that, that's the occurrence that should take place when we're down
269 00:45:24,329 --> 00:45:32,279 here, and we're looking for buy scenarios. So if it goes below equilibrium and blows out a Fibonacci level, and you take a loss, just find the low that it just
270 00:45:32,279 --> 00:45:40,409 blew out, and then expect the buy signal there, then then you're buying at a really deep discount, then you're gonna get an explosive move to the upside. So
271 00:45:40,409 --> 00:45:52,319 now, if we're using false breaks below previous lows down here, what can you do to get out of a profitable position, the same thing, you'd look for a high if
272 00:45:52,319 --> 00:46:02,189 you're buying down here after a stock has been run, you take your profit once this market goes above the previous high over here, the market makes a lower low
273 00:46:02,219 --> 00:46:11,039 it rallies. Okay. It rallies up starts to retrace where you want to get out at when it gets above a old high. Here's an old high you take your profits right
274 00:46:11,039 --> 00:46:17,279 there. But wait a minute, Michael, wait a minute, it didn't go above this one here. What if I would have held on to that one, then you would have been greedy.
275 00:46:19,349 --> 00:46:27,719 He gave you two chances to do it. To market me a new high here, turn back a little round and then one more time punched above it. Get out above an old high
276 00:46:28,649 --> 00:46:38,969 markets will distribute for let me say it this way. market makers and smart money will distribute long positions above old highs it doesn't have to be the
277 00:46:38,969 --> 00:46:46,889 oldest Hi, it didn't go over above this one either. You didn't go above this one, you don't need it to once it creates a high they only allow price to
278 00:46:46,889 --> 00:46:55,139 retrace to allow stops the build up above an old high dat tele engineer liquidity. So when engineer liquidity comes in the marketplace in the form of a
279 00:46:55,139 --> 00:47:03,449 buy, stop protecting the short position that somebody out there foolishly put in there, then the run price above it hitting those buy stops, those buy starts to
280 00:47:03,449 --> 00:47:11,759 come market orders to buy at the market and they sell to those buy stuffs their long positions they accumulated back here. That's all institutional order flow
281 00:47:11,759 --> 00:47:22,649 is understanding the storyline between what the highs and the lows are given you. If you frame the ranges based on your understanding of what the market
282 00:47:22,649 --> 00:47:33,929 should be bullish or bearish, and that's easy, don't worry about that. We'll get to that. But for now, I'm trying to try and insert into the to a foundation for
283 00:47:33,929 --> 00:47:44,219 looking at price on a higher timeframe. And then managing your expectations based on what you see on this timeframe. And also building the beginning basis
284 00:47:44,219 --> 00:47:57,269 to your anticipatory skills for looking for future moves. Way Michael, it's as you just form fitted this one. This is probably just only working on this chart
285 00:47:57,269 --> 00:48:09,059 here. What happens if you go into what happens if you go into an hourly chart? Suddenly it's all gonna be different right? It's gonna be different. It's all
286 00:48:09,059 --> 00:48:25,049 gonna be different. Well here we have a price like here. Okay, impulsive price swing you map that out. Okay. swing high force candle doesn't get back down to
287 00:48:25,049 --> 00:48:33,179 equilibrium no problem. We wait for it to do it. It doesn't do it makes another leg higher. What happened? We missed it don't worry about it. Don't chase it.
288 00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:41,459 You know exactly what you're waiting for. Price makes the new higher high. So we have the low to the high what are we waiting for a price get down to equilibrium
289 00:48:41,459 --> 00:48:49,499 Okay great. But what happens when it gets below that? We're going to discount market it has to go into what 62% retracement level minimum right here it does
290 00:48:49,919 --> 00:48:58,709 does it stay there long no way it doesn't stay that long. What happens price moves away from it and then once it do comes back down into equilibrium again
291 00:48:58,709 --> 00:49:09,629 and expands again it consolidates a little bit makes us short term high where do you take your profits at Michael above old time short term high boom it rallies
292 00:49:09,629 --> 00:49:15,749 above it knocks that higher and even comes back and clears this one out to you just by a little bit and then look what happens they retrace the all the way
293 00:49:15,749 --> 00:49:24,389 back down to equilibrium again, there's a spent time much there no rallies back up where does it go back to the bottom of this bullish candle which is a bearish
294 00:49:24,389 --> 00:49:34,109 order block fills it right to the right to the PIP and I'm gonna tell you something I hate this pair. I literally hate this pair with a passion because
295 00:49:34,109 --> 00:49:42,389 it's this sneaky pair like the Japanese yen and you Swiss folks and Japanese folks please don't take offense to that I'm just I don't like your currencies
296 00:49:42,389 --> 00:49:55,319 but that like the the open eye candles 9768 and the high on this candle comes in at exactly 9768 So you take your profits right they're not at that high you exit
297 00:49:55,319 --> 00:50:04,469 before you get to that remember we always want to get out before we get to the actual price like now we Have another higher high. Right here. See that? So
298 00:50:04,499 --> 00:50:12,749 we're going to wait for price to get down to equilibrium and unless it does it here, again 62% or 62% retracement level? Should it stay there long? No, does
299 00:50:12,749 --> 00:50:21,089 it? No, it doesn't. It rallies away retraces back to equilibrium again. And then what do we expect it equilibrium? What did I teach you about the algo? It goes
300 00:50:21,089 --> 00:50:29,879 from consolidation, which is always going to be at equilibrium to expansion. What's it expanding to? To liquidity? Where's the liquidity at right here?
301 00:50:29,999 --> 00:50:38,339 before it takes off going vertical? Where is the liquidity at? It's above this high and above this high here? What is it by stops? Somebody wants to protect a
302 00:50:38,339 --> 00:50:46,019 short position. So if they're going to buy down here as smart money, they're going to sell it to who somebody wants to buy at a higher price. The buy stops
303 00:50:46,019 --> 00:50:53,579 here and the buy stops here. Look what happens. It goes up a little bit small little retracement and then expands aggressively. What's it going for the stops
304 00:50:53,579 --> 00:51:06,689 right here? And then right here. Then once we go above, look what happens. This movement here? What did I teach you? I teach that markets move in intraday price
305 00:51:06,689 --> 00:51:18,179 action in grades of 10. Just 1010 and 20. Pip ranges above a high That's how far they'll reach for stock.
306 00:51:18,780 --> 00:51:28,770 Boom, there you go. There's your stock run on equal highs. Remember I told you on your charts, mark out areas where there's equal highs to to clean, the
307 00:51:28,770 --> 00:51:40,140 markets going to want to run there. So anything below 50% is discount. But it can go back to equilibrium and consolidate and then expand. So I'm blending two
308 00:51:40,140 --> 00:51:50,400 components, giving you introduction to the interbank algo, where you'll know what the what the price engines were going to do, before they do it. They're
309 00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:59,490 going to offer the price higher when it's time to do so. But they're going to have to capitalize discounted markets before it goes higher. It won't just go
310 00:51:59,490 --> 00:52:07,710 straight up for no reason it doesn't it doesn't operate like that. The market has to come back down to a discount and below equilibrium, then you get
311 00:52:07,710 --> 00:52:15,570 explosive moves, then it might come back to equilibrium to consolidate and wait for an expansion, then the expansion comes and you look for the liquidity about
312 00:52:15,570 --> 00:52:26,400 the marketplace. So the difference between equilibrium is yes, it's fair market value at equilibrium. We as traders, we want to trade at discounts. We had to
313 00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:36,450 get below equilibrium. When it gets into 62% retracement level, or down into 70.5 or even 7x and tracing levels. You really need to be considering being
314 00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:45,870 interested in being long on those markets when your underlying bullishness is there waiting for expansion, blending in all the tools that you'll learn. Look
315 00:52:45,870 --> 00:52:52,890 at the low here. Okay, we're below equilibrium. Here's a low it comes all the way down hits those straight there. What would you expect? Even if you didn't
316 00:52:52,890 --> 00:53:01,680 see the Fibonacci? What would you expect? That this is a turtle soup? It's a run on stops and quickly rejects comes back down. When is it going to go lower?
317 00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:10,380 Michael, it shouldn't. Why? Because it only took two stops out. So it's only retracing a little bit. If you took another Fibonacci and you put it on this
318 00:53:10,380 --> 00:53:17,100 range, because we're looking at an hourly chart here. This will be a smaller price leg in a lower timeframe. Look what it does, it goes right back down into
319 00:53:17,100 --> 00:53:25,830 your optimal trade entry again below equilibrium. Optimal trade entry and does it spend less time down here? No, it rallies up hits a 60% chance 62%
320 00:53:25,830 --> 00:53:37,530 retracement level again, and then expands boom takes off. There's no magic in Fibonacci, none. The only thing it helps you do is visually see what equilibrium
321 00:53:37,530 --> 00:53:48,510 is in price. And then below equilibrium, where's a good price to enter at a discount? And here's the benefit. If it goes lower than the optimal trade entry
322 00:53:48,510 --> 00:53:59,100 between 62 and 70, I'm sure Jason labels and you're in line bullishness is there, wait for the turtle suit by boom, it's that easy. It's that easy. And if
323 00:53:59,100 --> 00:54:05,370 you don't believe me, I know you don't believe in that's the beautiful part about this. And that's why I want you to go into your charts and look for it if
324 00:54:05,370 --> 00:54:15,390 we have a bullish market, okay, and we know that markets are retracing, you won't need to see the Fibonacci, you can just eyeball it between this low and
325 00:54:15,390 --> 00:54:25,230 this high. midway point about right here. This market loop below that is below equilibrium. It's at a discount. And guess what? It cleared out stops over here.
326 00:54:25,260 --> 00:54:36,000 What's it going to do rally? It rallies up equal lows in here to clean market drops down? What's it doing coming down the equilibrium Fibonacci levels?
327 00:54:36,420 --> 00:54:44,010 Optimal trade entry. I'm not going to put the fib on it. You can do it from this low to this high. Because right now it's the optimal trade entry explodes. Why?
328 00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:52,650 Because it cleared off the equal lows down here. Boom explodes up to the upside. What about this low over here, Michael? Sure comes down and cleans it out what
329 00:54:52,650 --> 00:55:00,240 should happen? It should expand. It's bullish, we're going to discount market. They're only coming down to take the stops below the marketplace out These are
330 00:55:00,240 --> 00:55:07,680 sell stops. Why would the market makers want to take the market down to take out sell stops because it injects people that want to sell to them that want to buy.
331 00:55:08,130 --> 00:55:19,380 They get counterparties to their buy orders by having to sell stops chipped below that low, boom explodes this low right here violated right here, not by
332 00:55:19,380 --> 00:55:27,150 much, it doesn't need to be much. Once it hits that level, then the orders go hot bang explodes off the upside. Well, it doesn't make a new high Michael, it
333 00:55:27,150 --> 00:55:30,150 doesn't have to you get exited right here at your old order blocks.
334 00:55:31,530 --> 00:55:38,700 You don't need to have everything out there to come in alignment, the stars don't have to align to get you a profitable trade. You just needed a couple
335 00:55:38,700 --> 00:55:49,170 things that make sense. They have to start with equilibrium to discount for buys. That has to happen. If you don't get that you're not going to have these
336 00:55:49,170 --> 00:55:55,800 explosive buy signals. It's going to fall in your lap. He's not just knowing give me a bicycle. Michael, tell me when to get in and get out this stock. This
337 00:55:55,800 --> 00:56:04,920 is why I told you you have to understand things before just looking for bullish orderbox before turtle suit Long's before optimal trade entry Long's before
338 00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:14,370 stochastic divergence bullish Lee. None of those things work outside of understanding the central tenant to what a market is at equilibrium or below at
339 00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:24,210 a discount. That's a favorable buying market. anything apart from that? You stay away from it. You wait for look for the opposite side of the market, which is
340 00:56:24,210 --> 00:56:28,020 what we'll talk about next week. When we look at equilibrium versus premium