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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 10:01
From version 1.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2020-11-20 16:25
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To version 2.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2021-06-10 10:01
Change comment: There is no comment for this version

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1 -1
2 -00:00:09,929 ~-~-> 00:00:12,119
3 -ICT: Okay folks, welcome back. This is volume 18 and
1 +(% class="hover min" %)
2 +|1 |00:00:09,960 ~-~-> 00:00:17,220 |ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is volume 18, and continuing series of 20 videos for the industrial traders, optimal trade entry pattern recognition
3 +|2 |00:00:17,220 ~-~-> 00:00:27,930 |series. Alright, so our example today is from the treasury bond futures contract and the delivery contract month is September 2020. This at the time is recording
4 +|3 |00:00:27,930 ~-~-> 00:00:40,410 |June 2 2020. The open interest is the highest in September contract, even though the nearby contract is June. So we're electing to follow this month for treasury
5 +|4 |00:00:40,410 ~-~-> 00:00:49,050 |bonds. And once you take a look at the daily chart, notice that we have this high to this low, I mean a retracement in here. And on the first of June, we had
6 +|5 |00:00:49,050 ~-~-> 00:00:59,460 |a nice reaction in here. So is it more likely to take out this candles high or this candles low? Notice that we have a turning point here, a lower turning
7 +|6 |00:00:59,460 ~-~-> 00:01:14,580 |point here. And now we had a reaction within optimal trade entry. So is it likely to take the low out or the high out? Not the high, the low. And we have
8 +|7 |00:01:14,580 ~-~-> 00:01:28,170 |relative equal lows here as well. So that could be a potential target. So I'm going to take this off, and we're going to draw out the low here so when we drop
9 +|8 |00:01:28,170 ~-~-> 00:01:40,080 |down into the lower five minute chart, we'll be able to see the delineation of this particular day's low and it comes in at 177 and 230 seconds. So let's drop
10 +|9 |00:01:40,080 ~-~-> 00:01:48,780 |down to a five minute chart. Okay, so here is the five minute chart on the September contract for the treasury bond market. And you know the drill, pause
11 +|10 |00:01:48,780 ~-~-> 00:01:51,090 |your video, study what you think you see here.
12 +|11 |00:01:57,990 ~-~-> 00:02:09,960 |Okay, so let's take the annotations and add them to the chart. New York session and we have our high to low and retracement back into optimal trade entry. And
13 +|12 |00:02:09,990 ~-~-> 00:02:24,480 |this requires a 62% retracement level entry at 177 and 2030 seconds to the entry is our hypothetical 177 and 2030 seconds. it suffers a drawdown now I'm having
14 +|13 |00:02:24,480 ~-~-> 00:02:34,620 |annotations here not saying that you would be filled here you will be filled here on this candle right there that particular candle and you have one candle
15 +|14 |00:02:34,980 ~-~-> 00:02:46,380 |here it goes a little bit against you. But this all these candles here these it's two ticks, which is $31.25. Each contract, or in this case would be $62.50
16 +|15 |00:02:46,380 ~-~-> 00:02:57,840 |drawdown. And using a six tick stop. So it's six times $31.25 per contract that you're trading. And we have relative equal lows here as well in this heavy line
17 +|16 |00:02:57,840 ~-~-> 00:03:15,990 |here is the previous day's low, say June 1 daily low, you can see that we did create an optimal trade entry. Looking forward to trade down below that. And
18 +|17 |00:03:15,990 ~-~-> 00:03:27,510 |ultimately, two standard deviations, that's our day trade for this model is a total of 29 ticks or $906.25. Now if you'd left a leader in something to see if
19 +|18 |00:03:27,510 ~-~-> 00:03:38,400 |it's gonna catch a runner, it does in fact go down here and actually trades to a point at which for one contract that was over 16 $150 per contract. So not bad.
20 +|19 |00:03:39,960 ~-~-> 00:03:48,690 |Really hard to beat the bond market. It's been tough recently because of all the consolidation and such but when this market does move, there is no better market
21 +|20 |00:03:48,690 ~-~-> 00:03:58,350 |out there. It beats forex, it beats index futures, it beats crypto and beats everything. It's so perfect. It allows very ultra short term trades to have very
22 +|21 |00:03:58,350 ~-~-> 00:04:05,580 |tight stops. As you can see here. This could have actually been done with a four tick stop loss and Odin fine. So hopefully you found this example insightful.
23 +|22 |00:04:05,700 ~-~-> 00:04:07,770 |Until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading
4 4  
5 -2
6 -00:00:12,119 ~-~-> 00:00:15,449
7 -continuing series of 20 videos for the initial traders,
8 -
9 -3
10 -00:00:15,659 ~-~-> 00:00:19,559
11 -optimal trade entry pattern recognition series. Alright, so
12 -
13 -4
14 -00:00:19,559 ~-~-> 00:00:22,739
15 -our example today is from the treasury bond futures contract
16 -
17 -5
18 -00:00:22,799 ~-~-> 00:00:27,119
19 -and the delivery contract month is September 2020. This at
20 -
21 -6
22 -00:00:27,119 ~-~-> 00:00:30,449
23 -the time of this recording June 2 2020. The open interest is
24 -
25 -7
26 -00:00:30,449 ~-~-> 00:00:34,169
27 -the highest in September contract, even though the nearby
28 -
29 -8
30 -00:00:34,169 ~-~-> 00:00:40,049
31 -contract is June. So we're electing to follow this month for
32 -
33 -9
34 -00:00:40,049 ~-~-> 00:00:43,199
35 -treasury bonds. And once you take a look at the daily chart,
36 -
37 -10
38 -00:00:43,199 ~-~-> 00:00:46,409
39 -notice that we have this high to this low and we had a
40 -
41 -11
42 -00:00:46,409 ~-~-> 00:00:49,589
43 -retracement in here and on the first of June we had a nice
44 -
45 -12
46 -00:00:49,589 ~-~-> 00:00:53,009
47 -reaction in here. So is it more likely to take out this
48 -
49 -13
50 -00:00:53,009 ~-~-> 00:00:57,509
51 -candles high or this candles low? Notice that we have a
52 -
53 -14
54 -00:00:57,509 ~-~-> 00:01:00,929
55 -turning point here, a lower turning point here. And now we
56 -
57 -15
58 -00:01:00,929 ~-~-> 00:01:07,859
59 -had a reaction within optimal trade entry. So is it likely
60 -
61 -16
62 -00:01:07,859 ~-~-> 00:01:13,289
63 -to take the low out or the high out? Not the high, the low.
64 -
65 -17
66 -00:01:14,189 ~-~-> 00:01:16,559
67 -And we have relative equal lows here as well. So that could
68 -
69 -18
70 -00:01:16,559 ~-~-> 00:01:20,789
71 -be a potential target. So I'm going to take this off, and
72 -
73 -19
74 -00:01:20,789 ~-~-> 00:01:28,319
75 -we're going to draw out the low here so when we drop down
76 -
77 -20
78 -00:01:28,319 ~-~-> 00:01:31,199
79 -into the lower five minute chart, we'll be able to see the
80 -
81 -21
82 -00:01:31,919 ~-~-> 00:01:35,789
83 -delineation of this particular day's low and it comes in at
84 -
85 -22
86 -00:01:36,419 ~-~-> 00:01:40,919
87 -177 and 230 seconds. So let's drop down to a five minute
88 -
89 -23
90 -00:01:40,919 ~-~-> 00:01:43,889
91 -chart. Okay, so here is the five minute chart on the
92 -
93 -24
94 -00:01:43,949 ~-~-> 00:01:48,089
95 -September contract for the treasury bond market. And you
96 -
97 -25
98 -00:01:48,089 ~-~-> 00:01:51,089
99 -drill pause your video, study what you think you see here.
100 -
101 -26
102 -00:01:57,990 ~-~-> 00:02:00,510
103 -Okay, so let's take the annotations in add them to the
104 -
105 -27
106 -00:02:00,510 ~-~-> 00:02:06,780
107 -chart, New York session. And we have our high to low and
108 -
109 -28
110 -00:02:06,780 ~-~-> 00:02:11,010
111 -retracement back into optimal trade entry. And this requires
112 -
113 -29
114 -00:02:11,040 ~-~-> 00:02:16,920
115 -a 62% retracement level entry at 177 and 2030 seconds. So
116 -
117 -30
118 -00:02:16,920 ~-~-> 00:02:22,530
119 -the entry is our hypothetical 177 and 2030 seconds, it
120 -
121 -31
122 -00:02:22,530 ~-~-> 00:02:25,770
123 -suffers a draw down now I'm having annotations here not
124 -
125 -32
126 -00:02:25,860 ~-~-> 00:02:28,380
127 -saying that you would be filled here you will be filled here
128 -
129 -33
130 -00:02:29,040 ~-~-> 00:02:33,270
131 -on this candle right there, that particular candle and you
132 -
133 -34
134 -00:02:33,270 ~-~-> 00:02:36,660
135 -have one candle here that goes a little bit against you. But
136 -
137 -35
138 -00:02:36,660 ~-~-> 00:02:40,350
139 -this all these candles here these it's two ticks, which is
140 -
141 -36
142 -00:02:40,350 ~-~-> 00:02:44,910
143 -$31 and 25 cents, each contract, or in this case would be
144 -
145 -37
146 -00:02:44,910 ~-~-> 00:02:49,680
147 -$62 and 50 cents drawl down and using a six tick stop. So
148 -
149 -38
150 -00:02:49,680 ~-~-> 00:02:52,800
151 -it's six times $31 and 25 cents per contract that you're
152 -
153 -39
154 -00:02:52,800 ~-~-> 00:02:57,180
155 -trading. And we have relative equal lows here as well and
156 -
157 -40
158 -00:02:57,180 ~-~-> 00:03:04,680
159 -this heavy line here is the period previous day's low, so
160 -
161 -41
162 -00:03:04,680 ~-~-> 00:03:10,470
163 -June 1 daily low, you can see that we did create an optimal
164 -
165 -42
166 -00:03:10,470 ~-~-> 00:03:15,990
167 -trade entry, looking for it to trade down below that. And
168 -
169 -43
170 -00:03:15,990 ~-~-> 00:03:19,350
171 -ultimately, two standard deviations. That's our day trade
172 -
173 -44
174 -00:03:19,380 ~-~-> 00:03:24,960
175 -for this model is a total of 29 ticks or $906 and 25 cents.
176 -
177 -45
178 -00:03:24,960 ~-~-> 00:03:27,630
179 -Now if you'd like to leader in something to see if it's
180 -
181 -46
182 -00:03:27,630 ~-~-> 00:03:31,140
183 -going to catch a runner, it does in fact go down here and it
184 -
185 -47
186 -00:03:31,170 ~-~-> 00:03:34,050
187 -actually trades to a point at which for one contract, it was
188 -
189 -48
190 -00:03:34,050 ~-~-> 00:03:40,530
191 -over 1600 and $50 per contract. So not bad. Really hard to
192 -
193 -49
194 -00:03:40,530 ~-~-> 00:03:43,230
195 -beat the bond market. It's been tough recently because of
196 -
197 -50
198 -00:03:43,230 ~-~-> 00:03:46,710
199 -all the consolidation and such but when this market does
200 -
201 -51
202 -00:03:46,710 ~-~-> 00:03:49,920
203 -move, there is no better market out there. It beats forex,
204 -
205 -52
206 -00:03:49,950 ~-~-> 00:03:53,400
207 -it beats, index futures, it beats crypto and beats
208 -
209 -53
210 -00:03:53,400 ~-~-> 00:03:56,700
211 -everything. It's so perfect. It allows very ultra short term
212 -
213 -54
214 -00:03:57,150 ~-~-> 00:03:59,880
215 -trades to have very tight stops as you can see here in this
216 -
217 -55
218 -00:03:59,880 ~-~-> 00:04:02,910
219 -case have actually been done with a four tick stop loss and
220 -
221 -56
222 -00:04:02,910 ~-~-> 00:04:04,890
223 -it would have been fine. So hopefully you found this example
224 -
225 -57
226 -00:04:04,920 ~-~-> 00:04:07,350
227 -insightful. Until next time, I wish you good luck and good
228 -
229 -58
230 -00:04:07,350 ~-~-> 00:04:07,770
231 -trading.